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  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  5:20:02 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  4:40:29 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  4:09:05 PM
QQQ's trying to close above the previous y-t-d low of 34.01.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  4:02:02 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Note impact that option volatility has on SWK calls when benchmarked against the stock. (Important if/when considering out-the-money options should volatility implode).

Closed out 2 OSIP Aug. $50 puts (GHUTJ) at $1.65. (entered 7/19 at $1.00)

Closed out 1 OSIP Aug. $50 put (GHUTJ) at $2.20. (entered 7/19 at $1.00)

Closed out BEARISH short in GE at $32.21 from Friday's entry at $32.64.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  3:54:54 PM
The OEX couldn't make it past that mid-channel level, with important resistance from 530.06-530.88, at least not yet. Bears want to see the OEX drop below 529.22 and preferably below 528.38 before the close. However, as I've said every day for the last several days, when making decisions about holding overnight, bears must assess their willingness to risk profits as the OEX scrapes along near support on the weekly Keltner channel. The OEX could bounce up a few points, dip down a few points, and still be just hanging around that support as seen on a weekly basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  3:44:46 PM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $54.54 -4.58% Link .... cuts session lows in half after test of bullish support trend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  3:43:46 PM
An immediate turn back down inside the consolidation pattern is not what bulls hope to see when the OEX breaks out of a pattern, but that downturn could be just a retest of the broken resistance. The OEX is trying to rise again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  3:40:16 PM
Here comes the test of the mid-channel level on the OEX. There's resistance up to about 530.75. If the OEX can surmount that, it's possible that it could challenge the 533-534 level, with that level having descended all day as the OEX has, too. It's far from certain as yet that the OEX can do that, but bears should be prepared for a possible break out of today's rectangular consolidation pattern. That pattern suggests an upside of 2.75 points if the OEX can succeed, so a climb up to about 532.90, since the top of the pattern is at about 530.15.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  3:39:53 PM
30 min channel resistance is currently 34.12, close enough. Bulls need to take out 34.10 or at least hold current levels long enough to turn the channel back up. There's that pattern of higher oscillator lows on the 30 min chart that looks to be asserting itself again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  3:37:01 PM
Day trade carryover stop alert for GE $32.21 -0.92% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  3:31:41 PM
Keltner resistance for the OEX lies at the current 528.75 level, at 529.23, 529.98, and 530.72. The lines are separated, but most the day today, the OEX has been stopped between the two lines currently at 528.75 and 529.23. I've been expecting a possible push up to test the mid-channel level, now drifted down to 529.96, near historical S/R from last week, but we'll just have to see the result after that test, if it comes.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  3:30:24 PM
Hmm... Patterson Dental (PDCO) is falling more than 3% to crack support at the $70.00 level but shares are bouncing somewhat from the simple 200-dma. There doesn't appear to be any news on the move but its drop has produced a new sell signal on its P&F chart, which now points to a $63 target.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  3:22:59 PM
After a week and a half of consolidating its mid-July drop shares of Varian Medical (VAR) are breaking lower and currently trading under round-number support at $65.00. This looks like another bearish entry point but the company is expected to report earnings on July 29th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  3:21:37 PM
Everything is flattening, isn't it? The TRIN, the advdec line. Even crude futures are oscillating roughly between 41.20 and 41.80, doing so since mid-morning Thursday.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  3:20:12 PM
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) is down 2% and breaking under support at $75.00 and its simple 200-dma. This could be a bearish entry point for a drop toward support at $70.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  3:19:07 PM
Nike (NKE) is down 1.11% and breaking support at the $70.00 mark and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  3:17:08 PM
Retailer JOSB continues to look like a put play with today's intraday failed rally at the $30.00-30.25 level. JOSB was on the weekend watchlist.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  3:16:08 PM
It would appear that Genentech (DNA) is helping lead the BTK biotech lower. IMCL is the real leader down 14% but DNA is down 4.3% and hitting new six-month lows. The BTK is down 2.46%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  3:15:34 PM
You'd think all this consolidation in the rectangular zone on the OEX would be allowing the Keltner support on the 15-minute chart to firm up, but instead, it's pointing straight down, with next support at 526.43 and 524.93. It's difficult to call that support, however, with the Keltner lines sliding lower at such a steep angle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  3:07:43 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  3:06:12 PM
The short cycle oscillators are in a choppy drift upward for QQQ, but the speed of the swings and the tight range this afternoon have conspired to chop up the various short cycle indicators. The 30 and 60 min channels are moving sideways, but aside from that pattern of higher stochastic lows on the 30 min chart, there's little to suggest that this range wants to break upward. I'd be very hesitant to buy longs before seeing at least the preliminary upward resistance levels taken out- even a break of 34.10 would brighten the picture.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  3:03:51 PM
Bearish day trade carry over lower stop alert ... for General Electric (GE) $32.10 -1.29% ... to $32.21.

Session low has been $32.02 ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  3:02:53 PM
The OEX is approaching the equal-low level again, with five-minute MACD still pointing lower this time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  2:57:26 PM
NASDAQ Composite New Lows ... today's 238 is largest number of new lows going back to January 21 2003 according to my daily tabulations.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  2:55:52 PM
Session lows for ER futures here- just a slow boil all day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  2:54:38 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 115.92 -1.03% ... session lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  2:45:51 PM
30 minute chart of the QQQ at this Link shows an early abort to the stochastic upphase, with both the preceding upphase and the current rollover unconfirmed by the Macd. Still that bullish divergence with the pattern of higher lows on the 300 min stochastic.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  2:40:55 PM
We've got about a 2.75-point range on the OEX's rectangular formation that the OEX has been forming since about 10:30. That should be good for a 2.75-point target away from the range when it breaks. "Should" is the operative word, however, as we could be in for some choppy trading for a while. The range is roughly from 527.50 to 530.15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  2:37:50 PM
Chilean Copper Mine Strike .... Late Friday a major Chilean copper mine strike was postponed until this week to give time to a government arbitration effort.

Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  2:31:51 PM
American Express (AXP) $48.90 +1.64% .... session high after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.68, which was a penny better than consensus estimates.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  2:30:42 PM
QQQ is back to the previous high, which is a small victory on its own given that at least a lower high won't be printed here. Bulls need to break 34.10 to get a crack at 34.30 level. 34.44 is key resistance overhead on the broader downtrend. Currently 30 and 60 min resistance are lined up at 34.20, while support is down to 33.65.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  2:29:03 PM
We've been seeing bullish price/MACD divergence with each of these (roughly) equal lows on the OEX. MACD has been producing higher lows while price produces those roughly equal lows. That offers a warning to bears, but doesn't promise higher prices.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  2:25:10 PM
Bearish day trade carryover lower stop alert ... for General Electric (GE) $32.15 -1.13% to ... $32.31

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  2:18:25 PM
While the SOX semiconductor index is breaking down under the 400 level it is nearing the bottom of its descending channel. Chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  2:14:07 PM
Triple bottom? Or is the OEX still just oscillating from one side of its smallest Keltner channel to the other? Last week, I warned that the OEX might spend a couple of weeks or more consolidating around the support on its weekly Keltner chart before it decided on final direction, as that had been a typical pattern lately with one exception. The OEX could have moved down as far down as 525-526 perhaps without seriously violating that weekly support although the support is currently at 527-530.92. The lines can be bulged outward a little without creating that serious violation, depending on how the OEX behaves afterward. For example, if it bounced on a weekly basis, leaving only a candle shadow below that support, the violation would probably not have been serious.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  2:13:54 PM
Session low for GE here at 32.08.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  2:12:42 PM
Copper miner Phelps Dodge (PD) is down more than 2% and slipping under its simple 50 and 200-dma's. Today's drop also breaks minor support at the $72 level. It's probably no coincidence that PD is attempting a small rebound in the last 30 minutes from the $71 region, which is P&F support. Phelps is due to report earnings tomorrow morning before the opening bell. Estimates are for $2.54 a share.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  2:07:05 PM
So much for the higher low. ER futures are a session lows and QQQ is back to 33.80. Feels like a bearish triangle to me here. A break above 34.10 would invalidate that and restore a more bullish tone to these levels, but so far the bulls have been unable to touch it all afternoon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  1:59:43 PM
Now a higher short cycle low and lower high. The picture continues to look bearish below 34.10- so far the best that the bulls can build on these oversold cycles is a sideways upphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  1:54:00 PM
The OEX's 15-minute chart shows support trying to firm near 527.25. The OEX needs to maintain values above 529, however, to help that support to firm. First Keltner resistance above that lies at 530.70 or so, with historical resistance a little lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  1:47:54 PM
So far, the OEX still is not able to maintain levels that could keep its smallest channel pointed higher on the five-minute chart. Important resistance lies overhead at 530.64-531.17, but so far, the OEX is being turned down by a channel line that's now at 529.32.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  1:46:24 PM
New session low of 32.18 for GE here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  1:45:52 PM
This is a key intraday test here for QQQ. There's a double bottom at the session lows, with a so-far lower high off the noontime test of 34.09. A failure to at least match the previous high will suggest a descending intraday triangle above the lows, very bearish, while a match or break of the high will paint the double bottom in a bullish light.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  1:39:25 PM
Amerada Hess (AHC) is slipping 1.12% back to support at the $80.00 level. Traders might want to consider AHC a short-term bearish play with a trigger under $80.00. Its short-term technicals are bearish and its MACD has turned into a sell signal from overbought. Yet I wouldn't expect it to drop too far. AHC is still trading in its rising channel and the bottom of the channel is near the 50-dma just north of the $75 mark. Watch out for earnings on Wednesday morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  1:36:46 PM
The OEX confirmed the double-bottom by moving above the peak between the two bottoms but then immediately fell back again. The OEX is trying to keep its lowest Keltner channel pointed up toward the 530.72-531.20 next Keltner resistance, but the five-minute candles are leaving upper shadows behind. The OEX may need to move back down to 528.93 or so and regroup before it attempts an assault on that mid-channel level again. A fall below 527.58 points that lower channel toward 526.46, the lower channel support.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  1:26:20 PM
EarthLink (ELNK) is up 3.14% after announcing that its management has authorized another $100 million to is stock buy back program bringing the total program to $145 million.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  1:25:05 PM
As of 30 minutes ago, crude futures were climbing, trying to regain this morning's gap-down level. They were still well above $41.00, however. They have not yet achieved a closing high above the 41.83 close from 6/01, however, but it wouldn't take much today to see that close. Nor would it take much to begin a rollover from a roughly equal high. It may pay to keep the crude futures on the radar screen today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  1:19:44 PM
GE back to the session low at 32.22 here.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  1:18:57 PM
It's been a busy day for Smith Barney who also upgraded insurance stocks XL and ACE to a "buy". Both XL and ACE, which had reached oversold conditions, are producing a rebound on the upgrades. ACE reports earnings tomorrow and XL reports on Wednesday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  1:18:29 PM
We're seeing another OEX attempt at holding a double bottom level on the five-minute chart, woth a move above 530.07 needed to confirm the double bottom.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  1:18:27 PM
Bonds have dropped again, currently trading just above their session lows. TNX is above 4.48%, currently trading 4.483%. 4.48% is now support, with next resistance at 4.5%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  1:14:08 PM
Jane's 13:09 raises an important point about oscillator divergences. Divergences often provide useful contrarian signals/non-confirmations where there's an unusually rapid price move. That price move "gets away from" the oscillators, which lag the move. Often, a terminal move in a given timeframe will be explosive, and the oscillators, by falling behind the speed of the move, produce a divergence. These divergences have predictive value because explosive/terminal moves tend to reverse more strongly than ordinary moves. Just like trading against an upward or downward spike in the TRIN, the VIX, or any other derivative indicator, trading against an oscillator divergence can be very profitable. But beware- if the price continues in its original direction, such as we saw after this morning's abortive bounce attempt, the lagging oscillators can generate a fresh signal in continuation of the trend.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  1:13:25 PM
Biotech/drug maker ImClone Systems (IMCL) is down another $10 or 15% to $56.20. The stock was downgraded from "buy" to "hold" by Smith Barney this morning. Shares have technical support at the 200-dma currently at $53 but historical price support is lower at $50. It may be worth noting that the bearish P&F price target was at $66.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  1:09:45 PM
CNBC was recently talking about online jewelry retailer Blue Nile (NILE). There has been some brokerage action on NILE today ahead of its Wednesday morning Q2 earnings report. Amtech upgraded NILE from "sell" to a "hold" while another analyst firm issued positive comments suggesting NILE could surprise to the upside.

Shares of NILE are up 3.48% to $30.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  1:05:16 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  1:04:59 PM
JupiterMedia's (JUPM) research division introduced their latest forecast projecting that digital music sales will more than double over last year and reach $270 million in sales in 2004. They are projecting that digital music will reach $1.7 billion in sales by 2009. In spite of these lofty forecasts they do not believe digital music will replace music CDs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  1:04:44 PM
It was another high volume selling spike that took QQQ back below 33.90, and the bounce is so far just a pause. The short cycle TRIX and Macd are showing bullish divergences, but we saw how far the earlier 30 min bullish divergence took us. The lows are 2 cents away, and a downside break should see another burst of selling to follow. That said, 30 and 60 min channel have stabilized with support still at 33.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  1:02:14 PM
As Jane may have already pointed out, the TRIN has been steadily climbing all day while the advdec line has been steadily dropping. That so far supports a bearish tone for the day. I also note that the VIX gapped above its 200-dma today and is currently sitting just over its 200-ema at 17.48. As discussed last week, lately it's been the drop below 14.00 that has triggered sell programs in the equities. While the move above the 200-sma is not good for bulls, sometimes the move is already well underway by the time that move is made.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  12:57:36 PM
Bearish day trade carryover lower stop alert ... for General Electric (GE) $32.25 -0.76% .... lower stop to $32.50. Continue to target $32.01.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  12:54:28 PM
Par Pharmaceutical (PRX) continues to sink despite news today that the FDA has given them approval to market a generic Mycostatin drug. PRX's nystatin topical powder is a generic version of Westwood-Squibb's Mycostatin topical powder.

A breakdown under support at $32.00 might be another bearish entry point but watch for earnings on July 29th.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  12:51:14 PM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $50.92 -10.9% Link .... remains under pressure and session low. Testing bullish support trend, where often-times, buyers will be lurking.

VXN.X 25.86 +8.16% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  12:50:55 PM
The SOX just hit an equal low, again breaking through the support that had tried to form just under it. That support is now resistance, gathering from just above the current 397.51 value all the way up to 399.94, after which it spaces out a little, but only a little.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  12:35:05 PM
While the OEX has not created a breakout signal on its five-minute Keltner chart, the SOX has. Support is trying to gather beneath the SOX at 398.50-399.04. The SOX needs to climb above 401.03 to turn its smallest Keltner channel higher again, pointing it toward the 402.43 and 405.80-406.64 next resistance levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  12:29:49 PM
Buy/Sell Program Premiums .... HL Camp has updated their buy/sell program premium levels. Their computers are set for program buying at $0.47 and set for program selling at $-2.07.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  12:25:45 PM
Lower 5-minute support for the OEX has slid down to 526.96. The OEX still hasn't violated that support, but that's of no help to bulls watching the OEX slide lower. It has managed to turn its smallest channel higher again, but needs to maintain 529.31 or at least 528.52 to keep it turned higher. The mid-channel level is above at 531.24, with important resistance just above that, at 531.76.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  12:16:50 PM
The TRAN is climbing today, but doing so in what appears to be a possible bear-flag climb above the 50-dma. That 50-dma is at 3033.67, with the TRAN at 3055.45.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  12:13:01 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $26.75 -9.48% .... lower on talk that CBS Evening News will run a negative story tonight regarding stun guns with a fatal accident caught on tape.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  12:10:59 PM
Need to step away for 45 mins here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  12:06:36 PM
The OEX is trying to maintain levels high enough to turn the smallest channel higher, but it will need to climb above 530 and sustain values above that level in order to do so.

 
 
  Keene Little   7/26/200,  12:01:36 PM
Nice trade Jeff on OSIP.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  12:00:05 PM
Bearish Swing trade put close out alert close out the remaining OSIP $52.760 -7.94% August $50 puts (GHUTJ) $2.20 bid.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  11:57:13 AM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $52.38 -8.33% .... Morgan Stanley saying FDA documents released late Friday for the application of Eli Lilly's (NYSE:LLY) $62.27 -0.7% Alimta in the treatment of second line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) had the FDA statistician finding problems in the application, foremost being the drug failed to meet its primary endpoint of an improvement or non-inferiority in survival. While Morgan Stanley expects Alimta and Tarceva (OSIP's drug) to be direct competitors for NSCLC, Wall Street has become more concerned about this FDA panel the last couple of weeks, and Friday's findings for Lilly's drug could weigh on OSIP's Tarceva approval near-term, but Morgan Stanley still sees setbacks in Alimta as a positive for OSIP's Tarceva, saying at this point, FDA findings have minimal impact for Tarceva data.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:56:54 AM
Descending 30 min channel resistance is 34.20, with the 7200-tick SMA at 34.10. Channel support is down to 33.70 QQQ. Zooming out to the daily candles, the daily cycle oscillator is on the verge of a fresh sell signal within oversold territory, which would make this into a trending move on the daily cycle. That's a rare event, but with new lows for the year printed this morning, it's well within everyone's imagination. A bounce above the 7200-tick SMA will be the first step toward repairing today's technical damage- but so far, each of the daily and 30 minute buy signals we've seen for the past week have aborted from lower price and oscillator highs.

 
 
  Jane Fox   7/26/200,  11:56:10 AM
Here is a chart of SPX. A break of May 12th lows would not be very nice. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  11:48:31 AM
The OEX has not been able to move high enough to turn its smallest channel higher again. That move would require the OEX to sustain levels above 529.48. As the OEX attempts to steady, lower Keltner channel support is now at 527.19 on the five-minute chart, lower on the fifteen-minute one. Bears should continue to follow the OEX lower with their stops, with the caveat that support may be found at any point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:41:19 AM
QQQ volume is strong today at 49.37M shares as I type. The print at the daily (yearly) low was the largest 100-tick volume since Thursday, with over 2.6M shares changing hands within 100 ticks. The bounce has so far been weak, looking bear-flaggish from here. A print above 34.10 could change that, but that level looks far away currently.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  11:35:48 AM
Newly added OI put STJ is slipping lower, down 0.91% to $66.14 and nearing its low from last week. The stock is trading lower despite news that the company is starting two new business units; one for Cardiology and one for Atrial Fibrillation. Plus shares were initiated with a "buy" outlook this morning from CE Unterberg.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  11:33:51 AM
So far, the OEX has not violated lower Keltner support on the five-minute chart, as that support has been sinking lower with the OEX. This is a departure from 7/21, when it did violate that lower Keltner support when it reached down to touch it. Bulls want to see this divergence continue while bears want to see a breakout. Currently that lower support lies at 527.40, but continues to drop. There's been no breakout signal yet, and to continue hope that there won't be, bulls want to see the OEX above 529.11, maintaining that value, or more hopefully above 530.02. Bears should be protecting their profits by lowering their stops as the OEX moves lower. The OEX is still within a realm in which the daily and weekly support could be considered as still holding and so could find its feet at any time.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:32:40 AM
Look for resistance on this bounce at QQQ 34.00-34.06.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  11:29:08 AM
The BTK biotech index is down another 1.95% and testing its low from last week. Likewise OI put play CEPH is down 1.86% and breaking to new relative lows (new 7-month lows).

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  11:27:15 AM
OI call play HUG is slipping 2.3% and trading under its simple 21-dma. The stock is headed back to test support at the $58 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  11:25:40 AM
For reference, the 5/12 low for the OEX was 526.53.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:25:20 AM
Session low for gold as well at 389.50 on the August e-mini, -1.00. Volume is light, however, at 617 contracts. HUI now down -1.69% at 176.58, XAU -1.51% at 82.76.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  11:24:50 AM
There has been a sudden burst of weakness in Fedex (FDX) in the last half hour. Shares have dropped back to round-number support at $80.00. Likewise its rival UPS has turned lower in the last 30 minutes and breaking down through its 100 and 200-dma's.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:22:07 AM
The year low for QQQ was 34.01 on March 23rd. There was barely a pause when that level broke.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  11:21:52 AM
Manhattan Associates (MANH) is down 2.56% and breaking down through support in the $25.00-24.80-24.65 levels. These are new one-year lows and this software stock is expected to report earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell with estimates at $0.24 a share. While I wouldn't open a position ahead of its earnings report and despite being very oversold from its early July levels the stock looks vulnerable to dropping toward the next support level at $20.00. Its bearish P&F target is $19.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  11:20:50 AM
And here comes the drop. The bottom support on the OEX five-minute chart is now at 527.52, with a drop through that level representing a breakout on a Keltner basis.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:19:11 AM
Session lows across the board. QQQ is downt 33.95, with the 30 and 60 min channels rolling over to a downslope here. The upphase was short and weak, and while the short cycles have managed to drift into oversold territory, they had very little predictive ability last week, spending most sessions trending uselessly. Channel support has declined to 33.90, with price testing that level as I type.

 
 
  James Brown   7/26/200,  11:17:28 AM
Textron (TXT) is looking pretty positive today giving traders a bullish breakout over resistance at $60.00. On Friday the stock was upgraded to a "buy" from Smith Barney who raised their price target to $70. The rally has also produced a bullish ascending triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart that points to a $76 target. Traders could target the next resistance level in the $65-66 range from May of 2000.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:13:09 AM
Ten year treasury yields (TNX) backed off from the 4.48% resistance level, currently back down to 4.472% (+4 bps). Gold has gone negative, -.20 to 390.30, with HUI -1.3% at 177.28 and XAU -1.26% at 82.97.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  11:05:13 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:04:00 AM
The June home sales data represents a record at 6.95M for the month. The number was higher by 2.1% over May's reading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  11:00:57 AM
So far, the OEX is just moving from one side of its smallest Keltner channel to the other on the five-minute chart. It's threatening now to turn that smallest channel lower. Next support is at 529.81, with support below that at 527.81.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  11:00:42 AM
Session lows across the board with QQQ testing Friday's low now.

 
 
  Jane Fox   7/26/200,  10:59:10 AM
Here is further info on Jonathan's early comments about the Google IPO

Dateline WSJ - Google Inc. put the value of its initial public offering between $2.7 billion and $3.3 billion and chose "GOOG" as its planned Nasdaq Stock Market ticker symbol, in an updated filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Mountain View, Calif., Web search company said it expects shares in its expected public offering to sell from $108 to $135 apiece. Google said it plans to sell 14.1 million shares of Class A common stock and existing stockholders are offering 10.5 million shares of Class A common stock. Google won't get proceeds from sales by existing shareholders.

Google estimates that it will receive net proceeds of $1.66 billion from the sale of the 14.1 million shares it is selling, based upon an assumed IPO price of $121.50 a share, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:57:29 AM
30 and 60 min support now line up at 33.96 QQQ. The short cycle oscillators are in a choppy downphase, with price mostly following the shortest cycle, the wavelet oscillator which is here trying to bottom again just above the session lows. The previous bounce failed at a lower high, while Friday's low has yet to be breached. On the one hand, it's a very disappointing bounce given the 30 min bullish divergence. On the other, last week's lows are holding so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  10:52:51 AM
200-day SMA alert .... 3M (MMM) $82.00 -0.75% Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:50:34 AM
Existing home sales 6.95M, upside surprise vs. consensus 6.65M estimate. The May reading was revised up to 6.81M from the 6.8M originally reported.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  10:42:46 AM
Semiconductor equipment ordering .... Bear Stearns making comment this morning that its latest checks indicate additional caution coming from major faoundries regarding spending in Q4. Firm saying September quarter still appears to be ontrack for an increase of 5% driven by Korea, Japan and strong memory demand. For Q4, Bears Stearns believes that TSM $6.72 (unch) is indicating that Fab 12C would be delayed while Fab 12B and 14 may increase at slower rate. Bear Stearns still thinks orders can be up 5% in Q4, but probably not more than that. Previous thoughts were +10%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  10:39:20 AM
The OEX is still oscillating around within its smallest Keltner channel, still in an equilibrium position just under the declining mid-channel level with no breakout yet. Overhead resistance now ranges from 531.92-532.98. It will take a sustained break above 533 to point the OEX toward 535-536.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:38:59 AM
Stepping away for 5 minutes here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  10:35:11 AM
The converging 50-sma and 72-ema appear to be supporting the BIX today, with those averages at 345.86 and 345.29, and with the BIX currently at 346.36. Just below those is the 100-sma at 344.14. It would appear that these should be strong support, but a tumble through those averages could send the BIX down to retest its 200-sma at 340.63.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:34:54 AM
Bonds to a new low here have TNX up to 4.479%, at 1st resistance of 4.48% on the way to stiffer resistance at 4.5%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:32:06 AM
The bounce off the lows is steepening here with equities back to positive territory.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:26:45 AM
Friday's lows have held so far. INTC is printing a session high, GE just printed a session low. The futures are all fractionally negative, but the drop to negative territory was quicker and steeper than the rise that preceded it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:24:24 AM
On Monday, the Fed said it was lending its support to the creation of the "International Journal of Central Banking" and that Fed governor Ben Bernanke will serve as its initial managing editor.

The journal will be a joint project of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European Central Bank and each of the Group of 10 central banks, with participation expected from other banks as well.

Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  10:22:30 AM
The SOX is creeping down toward possible round-number support at 400, but the support from its descending regression channel is currently lower, at about 387-388.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  10:18:13 AM
Bearish Swing trade put close out alert .... close out 2 of the 3 OSIP $54.51 -4.5% August $50 puts (GHUTJ) at $1.70 bid.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  10:18:02 AM
The OEX's smallest Keltner channel turns down now toward 529.40. Bulls want to see the OEX back above 532, while bears want to see it remain below 531.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:16:42 AM
Session lows across the board, with QQQ heading for a retest of Friday's low. 30 min channel support is down to 34.02, 60 min support 33.98.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  10:14:22 AM
10:10 AM Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:13:18 AM
Session low for Naz futures here, QQQ 2 cents behind it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:11:57 AM
The short cycle upphase is wavering here with QQQ 4 cents above the session lows. The pullback off the highs was enough to stall the 30 min channel upphase as well, with the channel currently flat.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:09:42 AM
After Friday's large repo drain, the Fed has added a 4.75B overnight repo to replace the 1.75B expiring for a net add of 3B.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  10:08:56 AM
The OEX has so far turned back from its test of the 532-532.30 region, dropping below the rising trendline that was established the last hour of trading on Friday. However, it's rising right back up to test that trendline and the 531.48 level that it needs to climb above and maintain to keep from flattening its smallest channel. A move through 530.62 begins to turn that smallest channel lower again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  10:00:36 AM
Session high for GE here, low for bonds.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  9:56:14 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

OSTK was upgraded to "equal weight" by Pacific Growth Equities

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:56:12 AM
Another session low for bonds, TNX to 4.465% now, +3.3 bps. QQQ printed a high at 34.41, currently back to 34.36. The short cycle oscillators are rising in an upphase, in sync with the 30 min channel upphase. Lower 30 min support is up to 34.05.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  9:53:30 AM
The OEX tests the 532.30-ish resistance on its Keltner chart. Above that is the 533 level, with that level including the channel line that usually stops OEX advances. A breakout, consisting of either a sustained or a sharp move above that line, sets up a possible test of 535-536.

A roll down and sustained move below 531.20 flattens the smallest Keltner channel and a sustained move below 530.50 turns it down toward 529.40 again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:44:14 AM
34.44 QQQ is still a key resistance level. The walk upward from the 3PM low is turning the 30 min channel higher, and the 34.44 level again looks like a potential reverse h&s neckline. But so far, 34.38, which was discussed Friday as the lower end of the .38-.44 confluence zone, has been unattainable today. 34.30 has been holding back the advances consistently since the cash open.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  9:44:02 AM
So far, the OEX hasn't shown its hand, not revealing likely direction. It's settling into an equilibrium position on the five-minute chart, trying to hang above 531 support, but not yet able to move above 532-532.30 resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:36:31 AM
30 and 60 min channel support are lined up at 34.00 QQQ. Short cycle channel support is 34.15. Resistance is at 34.35, 34.44 and 34.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  9:36:19 AM
The OEX opens and climbs, but it's climbing toward 532.15-532.30 resistance. That could be a possible neckline area for a reverse H&S, but it still requires a pullback and the formation of the right shoulder, if that's what it is.

During the first five minutes, the OEX spanned a range from 530.74-531.69.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:35:46 AM
QQQ and NQ futs back to session lows- QQQ at 34.21, flat against Friday's close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:33:28 AM
Session high for Dow futures with Naz futures bouncing weakly off the lows printed 2 minutes ago. These are highs and lows based on the overnight numbers since last night's futures open- hopefully it won't be "one of those days" with bifurcated markets adding confusion to the mix.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  9:30:28 AM
Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) $28.32 Link ... higher at $29.88 after saying it has extended advertising relationship with Google.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:29:37 AM
And a session low for Naz futures at 1379.5 just printed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:28:58 AM
Session low for bonds here, TNX at 4.46%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  9:27:10 AM
Check Point Software (CHKP) $20.74 Link .... lower at $18.60 after reporting quarterly EPS that were inline with consensus. Stock lower on Q3 EPS guidance of $0.24-$0.26 and revenues of $124-$131 million. Consensus was $0.26 and $132 respectively.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/26/200,  9:23:35 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:21:38 AM
Bonds have edged lower, with TNX up 2.3 bps to 4.455%, a .52% gain for the day so far. 4.5% remains key resistance in this range, with minor resistance at 4.48%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:02:53 AM
9:01am GOOGLE SETS SIZE OF IPO AT 24.6M SHRS

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  9:02:34 AM
9:01am GOOGLE PRICES IPO AT $108-$135 PR SHR

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  8:45:36 AM
Equities are pulling back slightly, and Russell2K futures are at sessionlows of 539.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  8:11:34 AM
Note the bullish divergence on the 30 min Naz futures at Friday's close. Link NQ is higher this morning at 1384.50 currently. A break above 1395 on a 30 min closing basis will target resistance at 1413 on the way to a possible bull wedge objective of 1439.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  8:03:56 AM
There's no economic data due until 10AM when we get existing home sales for June, est. 6.65M. Prior was 6.80M for May.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/26/200,  7:58:40 AM
Equities are higher this AM, with ES up 2 to 1087.5, NQ up 6 to 1384, YM up 17 to 9972 and QQQ up .13 to 34.34. Gold is up 1.90 to 392.40, silver +.02 to 6.36. Bonds are down .078 to 110.66 on the ten year future.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  7:44:06 AM
OEX Notes: Last week, the OEX produced a bearish candle that ended the week at historical and Keltner weekly support. That support held last week, but the smallest Keltner channel's lower line now begins to turn down slightly as weekly MACD grows more negative. That signals a warning, but price has not followed through yet. The daily Keltner charts shows the OEX trying to steady at support that's converging near 528, with those converging Keltner lines still turning down. A failure to steady at Friday's close or within a few points of that close--down to about 525-527--will turn the smallest Keltner channel down toward 504. For those who prefer to look at traditional methods of setting possible downside targets, the OEX began rolling down below the midline of this regression channel on its weekly chart. Link The bottom of that regression channel now crosses at about 522 so that this chart suggests a vulnerability down to that level.

Both daily and weekly Keltner channels depict the OEX trying to steady at possible support, while the traditional look at a descending regression channel shows that the OEX possibly likely to slide as low as 522, through to the bottom of that descending regression channel. Zooming in to a 15-minute Keltner chart shows that the OEX was trying to build bullish divergence (equal price lows but higher MACD levels) near the close Friday, but that divergence was tentative. The OEX needed to rise far enough off that equal bottom to confirm that lower price low. That chart shows that a sustained move below 529 is likely to turn the smallest Keltner channel toward 527.50 while a sustained move above 532.70 is likely to turn the smallest Keltner channel up toward 535-536. A move above 537 would confirm a double-bottom formation on the 15-minute chart, setting up a possible upside target of 544.71, right into the 544-547 resistance zone that both the daily and weekly Keltner charts suggest may be difficult to surmount. Traditional technical analysis also shows both historical resistance and the converging 50- and 200-sma's in the 543.86-544.42 zone, giving more validity to the Keltner channels' evidence.

But is the OEX likely to rise at all? As I look at futures Monday morning, I see that they're higher than Friday's close, but that they've fallen from overnight highs, too. They're currently climbing in formations that resemble bear flags, not engendering a lot of faith yet in the upside despite their slightly higher-than-the-close current figures.

Dialing down further, to the five-minute nested Keltner chart, shows the OEX pulling back at Friday's close, but pulling back into a possible reverse H&S on the five-minute chart. If futures should break down out of those possible bear flags before the open, that action would fit with the idea of the five-minute pullback continuing, at least far enough to form a possible right shoulder for that inverse H&S. If futures pull back toward their overnight highs instead and if the cash market opens accordingly, it may be important to note that the smallest Keltner channel had not been turned lower again, and a steadying and climb from Friday's close could keep it turned higher, toward 532.32, the descending mid-channel level and the probable neckline level for the reverse H&S. A fall below 530 would invalidate the possible reverse H&S, while a sustained move below 529.30 would aim the smallest Keltner channel toward 528.25.

The OEX ended the day trying to steady and producing some signs that might attempt a rise toward the 532-532.70 level to test that resistance, perhaps after a small pullback this morning, but looking far from certain that it could rise even that far. Markets are so oversold on a short-term basis that any kind of bounce that doesn't get knocked back immediately could start a short-covering bounce that drives the OEX first toward 532-533, then toward 535-536, and then up toward 542.85, if each successive level is maintained, but 544-547 still look like the top of any multi-day move unless chart conditions change by the time that level is approached. Any of those named resistance zones could stop the OEX before 544-547, too.

Although oversold by some measures, markets are jittery ahead of the possible event risk coming soon and perhaps ahead of Friday's GDP number. If the OEX can't steady in early trading, then a test of 527-528.50 appears possible. With it possible to consider the weekly Keltner support as still holding with a slide that low, we would have to reassess if the OEX moves through those levels and creates a breakdown signal on the 5-, 15-, daily, and weekly charts before we determine whether little more downside is possible or whether the OEX might tumble toward next Keltner support on the daily (504.06) and weekly (499.05) charts. Currently, the OEX's P&F chart shows a sell signal with a downside target of 492 but with a bullish support line at 496, with that chart fitting with the downside targets predicted by the Keltner charts if weekly Keltner support should be violated.

However, even if such a tumble occurs, all is not dire. While some have been watching possible continuation-form reverse H&S's built since the beginning of this year, it's possible that market participants need to take a look further back, at action since early 2001. The OEX's weekly chart shows that such a move down to the 490-500 region and a steadying there could create a reverse H&S on the OEX's weekly chart, one that's possibly been building since mid-2001 and one that would send the OEX back up to the 770 range, if confirmed and the target met. This is a bottoming formation, the type of reverse H&S I tend to trust a little better. This one showed bullish divergence as the head was formed across mid-2002, too. Confirmation would currently occur on a push above 567 or so, but cautious traders would want to wait until they saw a new high for the OEX.

That's a long way away from occurring, but I just wanted to mention that even a much deeper pullback than any of us might enjoy seeing might have a beneficial effect. In the short-term, however, such a deeper pullback appears possible although not guaranteed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/26/200,  7:22:32 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened near 11,100 and traded in a range between 11,100 and 11,150 most of the day. On a burst higher in the last few minutes of trading, the Nikkei managed to close at 11,159.55, down only 27.78 points or 0.25%, but at a new seven-week low. After Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing trimmed its sales forecast Friday, Japanese computer-related stocks proved weak in early trading, but by the close, some had moved higher, one article reported. Other exporters such as Canon and Nissan Motor Co. also fell in early trading. Friday's performance on U.S. markets also weighed on the Nikkei ahead of a week in which many Japanese companies report earnings. In stock-specific news, UFJ Holdings and Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group both dropped as they began talks to finalize their merger by October 1, 2005. Softbank Investment, a unit of Softbank, reported plans for a 3-for-1 stock split and also reported strong net profit gains. The stock gained 8.1%.

Although many computer-related stocks had gained by the Nikkei's close in Japan, many stayed weak in Asia, including Taiwan Semiconductor, United Microelectronics and Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing. Two firms downgraded Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing. Many other Asian bourses closed lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.78%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.18%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed, however, by 0.31%, one of only three Asian bourses that gained. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.27%, and China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.40%.

Most European bourses currently move lower in trade that is characterized as light. Today saw the release of Germany' preliminary July CPI. The number met expectations, up 0.3% month-over-month and 1.8% year-over-year, but down from June's number. Energy costs contributed to the rise. Auto stocks climbed in early trading, but chip stocks have been slightly lower. Volkswagen is seeing a relief bounce after last week reporting earnings that weren't as bad as expected. Spain's Banco Santander Central Hispano has revealed details of a planned takeover of Abbey National, sending Abbey sharply lower in early trading in the U.K., leading U.K. stocks lower. In other stock-specific news, French conglomerate Bouygues tried a MSFT ploy and revealed plans to return money to shareholders. It also revealed plans to sell its water-purification business. That stock had climbed 5% at one poitn this morning. Computer Sciences (CSC) will be getting a deal from Swiss insurer Zurich Financial Services, with the insurer unveiling plans to outsource some of its global applications to CSC. Zurich Financial Services was gaining in early European trading after the announcement. Eurotunnel, the operator of the channel tunnel, wasn't so lucky this morning, dropping heavily after revealing that decreasing traffic volumes and higher costs had driven its operating profit lower by 11% in H1. A shareholding meeting was planned to oust the old management, too, and the stock had dropped almost 12% in early European trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had fallen 28.60 points or 0.66%, to 4,297.70. The CAC 40 had fallen 8.90 points or 0.25%, to 3,558.39. The DAX had fallen 19.18 points or 0.51%, to 3,778.15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  7:02:43 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  5:42:19 PM
Yellow/Roadway (YELL) $41.56 +4.44% Link ... CNBC interview has CEO, William Zollars saying, "economy is humming." Adds that "oil prices not a factor."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  5:08:31 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

GE Day trade short from $32.64 carried over the weekend at bottom.

As an OSIP bear, I didn't like today's close above $56.70. Will monitor closely Monday, but these are out the money puts, and would be more aggressive to close out, if stock doesn't follow through to downside.

While OSIP not close to 52-week low, hints a bit that despite weakness, NASDAQ Comp new lows didn't build from Thursday's trade, despite a lower price move in the COMPX. May suggest some shorts covering on this weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  4:52:56 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:59:30 PM
Day trade hold over alert .... Will hold GE $32.61 -0.82% short over the weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:57:36 PM
The OEX will likely end today showing two candles in a row springing from the 527.92-528.48 Keltner support seen on the OEX's daily chart. That support hasn't turned up yet to cup the OEX's candles and indicate that it's going to hold, but there's that possibility that it will, particularly given the strong weekly support in this area. Where the OEX goes from here determines whether it heads back down to test that weekly support or not or just continues to climb. The daily chart suggests difficult getting much past 546, at least on the first test, but the OEX has surmounted that configuration of resistance at other times this year. The weekly chart suggests that a sustained move above 543.75 will stabilize the smallest channel and perhaps flatten it, but that's where first resistance shows up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:51:04 PM
QQQ's just cleared 34.26. 30 min channel resistance on the now-flat channel is at 34.40, with confluence resistance from 34.38 to .44. 60 min channel resistance, still declining, is at 34.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:50:37 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,089.15 .... is the stage set for rally mode on Monday?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:45:32 PM
QQQ hasn't spent this long above the 7200-tick SMA all day, but the break is anything but authoritative. The market's been amazingly weak today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:44:26 PM
Here we go, with the same OEX Keltner channel lines that have been stopping the OEX all day, stopping its advance again. Either I wasn't wearing my reading glasses just right earlier or QCharts has redrawn the OEX's five-minute candles, too, because that breakaway gap is gone now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:29:51 PM
QQQ at 34.25 is right at previous support of 34.26, and the 7200-tick SMA is right there as well- it's held back every bounce all day. Testing it here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:29:51 PM
The OEX gapped up during this last five-minute period as it broke above the descending trendline built since about 1:30. That's a breakaway gap and something bulls want to see. I don't know that I'd be playing an options play on such a supposedly bullish breakout this late on a Friday afternoon with even risk, though. I think I'd want the dust to settle Monday morning before I considered it. Of course, that guarantees that we'll see a move up to 536 before the close, doesn't it?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:27:49 PM
Jim nailed a great entry on that ER long. We're seeing the first decent prospect for a short cycle buy signal since 12:45PM.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:18:00 PM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,084.78

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:16:45 PM
NQ and QQQ have just bounced from the May lows. Note that the high that followed the May lows was a higher high on the daily. The daily cycle oscillators have released their buy signals printed earlier this week, now on a bearish kiss with today's lower low and lower high for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:12:51 PM
200-day SMA alert ... U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.26 +0.91% (30-minute delayed). Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:09:23 PM
03:05 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:08:02 PM
Equal low area for the OEX. It actually dipped a little below the equal low. Bulls and want-to-be bulls want to see the OEX steady here and begin to move up. Bears want to see the OEX go ahead and drop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:05:58 PM
Just had a 1084 alarm go off for the SPX. Now, how long have I had that set?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:05:33 PM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,083.94

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:04:41 PM
Here's a formation I'm watching on the OEX's five-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:04:33 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,084.37

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:02:59 PM
Session high for ZN bond futures here, up .23% for the day. So far, the Fed's big repo drain from this AM is uniquely impacting equities and precious metals.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:02:38 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6323.40 -1.07% .... session low and 19.1% retracement (conventional from March high to recent May lows).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:02:18 PM
Session lows in the futures here, QQQ breaking back to the lows of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:00:04 PM
The wavelet oscillator is ratcheting higher in a trending move off the low for QQQ. The action is so weak that it looks like an obvious bear wedge to me. Of course, it's obvious right at the weekly bottom, with the daily, 30 min and short cycle oscillators oversold, making these levels a perfect spot not to sell into. The market always seems to have an equally compelling technical counterargument. In any event, the outlook is bearish below previous support of 34.26, while bulls will want to wait for a break above 34.44 to confirm any short cycle strength that might develop from here. At this point, the 30 min cycle channel has resistance lined up at 34.45 as well.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:55:55 PM
I heard Michael Jackson denied any involvement in fathering of quadruplets Keene. Story at this Link

 
 
  Keene Little   7/23/200,  2:52:29 PM
Jeff, especially on the NDX, I'm seeing tweezers every day (re: your 14:36 post). This market doesn't know up from down anymore. It certainly can't make up its mind. Usually this kind of volatility is seen at market bottoms and tops so it gives me the impression it's hammering out a bottom. I think it's close and am disappointed it wasn't today, after that beautiful hammer doji on the charts yesterday. So give me a tweezer back up on Monday and we'll see if it's any more effective!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:49:45 PM
United Technology (UTX) $92.06 -0.58% Link ... Sikorsky unit awarded $2.4 billion contract to supply Canada with marine helicopters.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:37:49 PM
Careful, OEX bears. While today has been anything but bullish, the OEX just does not want to fall over the same cliff as some of the other indices. It keeps refusing to break through support, other than for brief piercings. If bears can't break it down, we could see shorts give up and begin to cover. Resistance groups overhead at 531.60 and then near 533. Support is at 530-530.20 and needs to be broken soundly if bears are to get their wish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:36:29 PM
Keene ... you might just get that "tweezer" bottom for the INDU today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:30:50 PM
QQQ is chipping at former double bottom support at 34.26. A break above it would target confluence at 34.38-.44.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:23:16 PM
The test of lower channel support held on the first try, and amazingly the bullish TRIX divergence still remains on the QQQ, though I have to squint to see what remains of it on the Macd. The short cycles are just trending at this point, as they've done every day this week, and the 30 min downphase is only beginning to approach oversold territory here- there's still room for more downside damage between now and the close on that key timeframe.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:20:42 PM
Brief piercing of the neckline, quick punch back above it on the OEX's five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:17:52 PM
02:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:16:34 PM
Once again, the OEX is trying to steady at the descending neckline of its potential three-right-shouldered H&S formation. Keltner support is trying to steady under it, too, but that support just keeps sliding lower while price does, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:14:03 PM
30 and 60 min channels remain in their downphases, with declining support down to 34.15 QQQ. 30 min channel resistance is 34.52, 60 min resistance 34.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:10:50 PM
QQQ $34.20 -1.92% .... gets bulk of the sell program.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:09:58 PM
General Electric (GE) $32.67 -0.63% .... unscathed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:08:47 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,086.38

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:07:40 PM
Nucor Corp. (NEU) $78.00 ... back to unchanged. Maytag (MYG) $19.04 -10.52% noted higher steel prices as hurting its quarterly results.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:07:20 PM
QQQ and NQ breaking to new lows for the week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:04:45 PM
OEX bulls want to see the OEX maintain values above 531.60 but hopefully above 532.06 to turn the smallest Keltner chart higher again. Bears want to see values below 531.60 but hopefully 531.19 to keep it turned lower. Bears most especialy want to see the 12:40 low violated, a sign that the H&S, now engaged in building its second or third right shoulder, is being confirmed. Then they want to see a move below yesterday's low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:03:58 PM
Back to session lows for NQ futures and QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:59:07 PM
At this rate, the OEX won't have far to go to test mid-channel resistance, because that resistance has been coursing down toward the OEX since Wednesday. It's currently at 533.18. Looks as if the OEX is going to need a good jolt of caffeine to get it there, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:52:48 PM
Agree. A bounce from 1080 SPX would have reverse h&s implications, while a break below it would turn the weekly cycle decisively down.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  1:51:27 PM
Jonathan, that is an ugly chart and that 1080 level could be a serious drop off.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:50:38 PM
I agree with Jim re his 13:48- weekly chart of the SPX at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:43:23 PM
The OEX struggles with each minor Keltner resistance level along the way in its laborious climb. Currently, the OEX needs to maintain 531.33 to avoid turning its smallest Keltner channel lower again. So far, this action is fitting the scenario of the OEX kicking around a while near the support seen on its weekly Keltner channel roughly in the 529-532 range, with that range perhaps able to extend down to 525-527 to the downside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:37:42 PM
Those bullish divergences are still evident in the short cycle TRIX and MACD Link but the downtrend in price has yet to end, with a lower high just printed at 34.44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:36:00 PM
Reader Question: We have been moving thru bear country as of lately. VIX is low in relative terms, and probably should be spiking higher. Doesnt this tell you that bulls are being a bit complacent and that we could see further downwards movement? A.

Response: Great question. VIX is low, but far off its sub-14 levels from April and then early in July. There's been a great debate over the last year about how low is low on the VIX now. We've certainly moved away from when a drop to 20 was considered a sign of a market top. I've seen some charts lately correlating VIX and SPX action, noting that we're nearer a market top than a bottom. The problem is I was seeing similar charts at periodic intervals all last year, too, while the VIX continued to sink lower and lower and the markets to climb higher. I think we're still in the process of determining where low and high are for the VIX.

July's move below 14.00 (7/14, 7/15, and 7/21) and now this week's continual testing of the 200-dma do perhaps signal that a turn was made in the markets. The last time the VIX pushed above its 200-sma on a closing basis was in May. The SPX was already far into its decline off April's high by then, and it was probably the push below 14.00 on April 23rd that precipitated the decline. Perhaps sub-14 levels now mark our new value for the "when VIX is low, it's time to go" axiom? At any rate, I don't think bulls want to see a VIX close above its 200-dma today at 16.60, although April and May's evidence suggest that the SPX could again already be far into its decline if that close occurs. Our next question is, what's now "high" for the VIX? Is it 20? Or 22? We're probably in the process of finding out that value, too.

I forgot to add my standard warning, though, that it's difficult to use the VIX as a market-timing tool, although it would have been a great one on April 23 and July 21, wouldn't it? Use it as one indicator among the many you use.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:21:55 PM
Updated daily TNX chart here: Link . 4.5% remains key range resistance, as it has for the past two weeks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  1:19:01 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:18:55 PM
Keltner resistance is trying to firm near 532, but is stronger up at the 533.30 region. If the OEX can maintain levels over 532, then it will be pointing the smallest Keltner channel toward 533.33.

Bulls want to see the OEX maintain levels above 531.30 or at least not below 530.74.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  1:09:35 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:08:00 PM
Again, the OEX looks a little hesitant as it tries to rise high enough to turn its smallest Keltner channel higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  1:04:25 PM
QQQ $34.35 -1.49% .... edges off session low of $34.24 and WEEKLY S1 ($34.25).

SOX.X 409.79 -2.53% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:00:13 PM
I can't highlight it in the chart itself, but note the bullish divergence on the short cycle Macd (bottom pane) and TRIX (second to bottom pane). I'd want to see 34.50 cleared before getting too excited, however- a break of the low should erase them in short order. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:57:08 PM
If I were running the fabled 990N or a large tech fund, I'd be very concerned to see the current levels hold. A break to new lows for the week would leave a very ugly chart for bulls to study over the weekend. 30 min channel support is down to 34.20 QQQ, 60 min support still at 34.26.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:54:01 PM
HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $0.52 and set for selling at $-1.82.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  12:53:11 PM
CDWC announcing a buy back of 2.5 million shares

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:51:53 PM
The OEX broke through that neckline of the H&S and through to a new low of the day, but it's desperately trying to steady long enough to build a base beneath it and the latest decline looks a little bullish falling wedge-ish. If the OEX can maintain levels above 531.40, it has a chance of turning the smallest channel higher again, toward 533.53 resistance.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  12:50:28 PM
WLP has been halted for trading

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:44:57 PM
And for NQ at 1380 just printed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:44:44 PM
Session low for INTC here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:44:04 PM
The 30 min cycle is in a downphase that looks good until the close judging from its current shape. The 30 min channels are back down to 34.26 support, which is yesterday's low. The daily cycle ticked down to a bearish kiss on the 10-day stoch, telling what we already suspected- namely, that a close near the day and week's lows would abort the young daily cycle upphase that's been trying to get going since Tuesday. The short cycles are oversold from the past 2 hours' decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:42:58 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:30:44 PM
The OEX now turns its smallest Keltner channel toward 529.57, but it has not yet violated the 10:10 low from this morning, so I wouldn't consider that H&S fully confirmed yet. I'd be careful of assuming that it's going to achieve it's full 5.7-point downside target, also, because a drop is going to be through what appears to be strong support on the weekly chart. Play it carefully on the bearish side, if you're doing that. As I said yesterday, though, a drop to 525-527 wouldn't be too much of a downside stretch of that support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:27:19 PM
The OEX slides down its nearest Keltner support and also down the neckline of its possible H&S. Both are near 530.80 now. That neckline and that support have been pierced once today and it appears that the OEX is going to try it again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:26:48 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 409.73 -2.54% ... back to test morning lows.

ALTR $19.92 +0.91% , XLNX $30.16 -1.72%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:06:43 PM
The OEX appears to be struggling to stay above the level needed to keep the smallest channel at least flat, if not above the level needed to turn it higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:01:48 PM
For what it is worth.... I think dollar's strength comes ahead of Democrat's Nation Convention (July 26-29), where "shrinking the deficit" will be the headline topic and criticism of current administration.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:51:23 AM
The OEX is trying to steady long enough to allow that Keltner support to firm, just ahead of the confirmation level of a confirmation level of a possible H&S on the five-minute chart. That support is now just above 531. Keltner resistance remains fairly scattered above the OEX, so on that basis alone, it looks possible for the OEX to rise. It needs to rise above 532.21 and maintain levels above that to have hopes of retesting the mid-channel level at 534 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  11:49:35 AM
A historical perspective of Fed tightening when dollar was strengthening, and tie to SPX.X. Link

One could argue the dollar's strength (technical) was due to shrinking deficits (fundamental) as economy was growing (fundamental), or raising rates by Fed(fundamental).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:48:45 AM
Gold's behaving as one would expect with the USD Index strong- it failed to regain 392 and printed a low of 387.20, just below 388 before rebounding to the current 389.70. HUI is down 2.51% at 180.64 here, XAU -2.03 at 84.74./ Silver's down to 6.28, while bonds are holding their gains with TNX down 1.6 bps at 4.446%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:41:12 AM
OEX support is trying to firm beneath the current OEX position, but it's again going to need the cooperation of the OEX. The OEX needs to steady here or preferably move above 531.73 or, better yet, above 532.33 to turn the smallest OEX channel higher again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  11:38:51 AM
200-Day SMA alert .... AIG $68.47 +1.84% Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:26:35 AM
Jonathan has been mentioning a H&S formation, and there's one on the OEX's five-minute chart, too. It's a continuation-form one, and I sometimes don't fully trust those, but the neckline would be somewhere around 531, although I'd wait for a drop below the 10:10 low before I considered it fully confirmed. It's going to be an iffy situation to consider a bearish play based on this, however, as the OEX is so near possible weekly support. If you're already in a bearish play, you're glad to see it developing and hope it confirms. If it doesn't, and is rejected, however, that won't gladden bearish hearts because such rejections often result in a big rebound.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:23:57 AM
I'd like your comments on the $usd (either here or in the MM). Due to the 'measured pace' or 'increased pace' of rate hikes, I am assuming that is why the USD is seeing some strength here. Where do you see the $usd weakening again given all of the fundamental factors? Many thanks, MP

There's old resistance at 89.4, then at 90, 90.5 and 91. If this week's move is a bull wedge breakout, then the implied target is the year high at 92.7 (basis Sept DX '04 future). A rise in interest rates would be as potentially bullish for the dollar as it would be potentially bearish for other assets, including equities, metals, commodities, real estate, etc. But I've learned to stick to the charts and the indicators- fundamentals are good for putting moves in perspective, but trading's all about timeframe, and fundamentals have always been very difficult to time. Link Right now, a strong daily cycle upphase is in progress. 90-90.5 DX looks like the key resistance zone from here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:21:22 AM
Nearby Keltner support if trying to firm up down to 531.25 on the OEX. If the OEX breaks through this other than a brief piercing, it turns the smallest channel down toward lower support, now at 529.77.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:16:41 AM
Amazing lack of strength at what should have been daily cycle support. That support is still intact, but a close near or below these levels at the low of the week would be quite bearish for next week. That daily cycle upturn needs price to cooperate, or else it will reverse lower and start the oscillators trending in oversold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  11:12:49 AM
11:08 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:09:19 AM
34.44 is a fib level and the beginning of confluence support to 34.38. A break below that should see a quick move to yesterday's lows as the short cycle uptick lets go from a much lower price and oscillator high. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:07:14 AM
The OEX is essentially turning down below the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Although it moved momentarily above it, it left only candle shadows above that level. However, as long as the OEX maintains values above 532.61 except for brief piercings, it should keep its smallest channel pointed higher. It's dropping below that now, however. Bulls want to see it find support at 531.60-531.78 and begin climbing again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:05:01 AM
QQQ bulls have a pattern of higher wavelet lows and an uptick in the 30 min cycle channel- but this hesitant chop is looking corrective, and the 34.75 and 34.95 levels are significant resistance levels. It will take more than this chop to put a bullish bias on today's action.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:56:39 AM
The OEX is testing next Keltner resistance at 533.22-533.43. Bulls want to see the OEX break above that and the 50% retracement of the decline at 533.70. Doing so will keep the smallest Keltner channel pointed higher, toward 534.46 (the mid-channel level) and then 535.43, the channel line that usually stops it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:55:57 AM
A break of 34.75 QQQ would be the first step toward undoing this head and shoulders formation, but it will take a break above 34.95-35.00 to invalidate it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:52:39 AM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 118.30 +0.11% .... edges green. JEF +1.26%, RJF +1.27%, MWD +0.59% .... ET -0.09%, SCH -0.22%, AMTD -0.93%.

Yesterday's action saw Dorsey/Wright and Associates' Wall Street Bullish % (BPWALL) reverse back lower to "bear confirmed" at 36%.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  10:44:01 AM
ALERT - FBI saying they have a report of a domestic terror group planning an attack against the convention

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:43:42 AM
The 30 min channel is flattening from its downphase, with channel support now at yesterday's QQQ low of 34.26. Resistance remains 34.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:41:51 AM
Time to look at some retracement values snapped on the OEX's decline from yesterday's high. A 38.2% retracement lies at 532.93 and a 50% one lies at 533.70. A 61.8% retracement lies at 534.47, near central channel resistance. All are possible resistance levels.

Bulls want to see the OEX above the 50% level and hopefully the 61.8%, which begins to suggest a full retracement of the move. Bears want to see the OEX roll down again at the 38.2% level or at least by the 50% level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:36:21 AM
The QQQ chart posted a few minutes ago shows a head and shoulders formation developing. J.M. Hurst has explained that the head and shoulders pattern is formed by the interplay of nested cycle channels, whereby a longer cycle (here the 30 min cycle) makes a top and rolls over, while the short cycle nested within it ping-pongs off the top and bottom of it. Focusing on the channels in that chart, there's a great illustration of that theory. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:35:41 AM
Yesterday, the 15-minute 100/130-ema's played an important part in the OEX's behavior. The OEX hit the 100-ema and then was rebuffed, falling straight from that average. Today, that average lies at 536.33, with the 130-ema at 536.97. We already knew the 536-537 zone served as historical S/R, and now there's extra reason to pay attention to this zone if the OEX should approach it today. If so, bulls should have a plan in place as to how they'll handle a test of those averages.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:30:22 AM
If the OEX should bounce again, the MACD is not showing me any bullish price/MACD divergence on the five- or fifteen-minute charts as compared to yesterday's low, which should keep any dip buyers on watch for the possibility that any bounce could be a countertrend one. The OEX needs to hold above 531.36 on a sustained basis to allow that support underneath to continue firming.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:29:29 AM
This bounce has kicked off the first steps of a short cycle upphase on QQQ, but selling volume is rising here below the upper descending channel markers at 34.75. Look for a higher low on the pullback for confirmation of a short cycle upphase. There's a small wavelet downphase trying to start here within the short cycle upturn.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:27:59 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 416.03 -1.04% .... session low was 409.45. Will show SOX.X chart mentioned in last night's Index Wrap, but that 50% retracement seems to be the current level of support in play.

After lower open of $30.09 ... XLNX $30.88 +0.71% has gotten a bounce.

XLNX chief competitor ALTR $20.29 +2.83% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:24:37 AM
Bears should be aware that it's possible that the OEX is finding its footing again, with support trying to firm beneath it. Resistance levels have thinned out, allowing for a bounce, but not promising it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:24:24 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Day trade in GE $32.73 -0.45% ... not listed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:21:49 AM
QQQ has 30/60 min cycle resistance at 34.75: Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:20:46 AM
Turning to the 15-minute Keltner charts, I see OEX support trying to firm between 531.07-531.48, but it needs the cooperation of the OEX before it can firm. It needs the OEX to steady here or even bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:16:56 AM
The OEX came within a few cents of reaching that 530.43 target that had been predicted by the Keltner channels. Now it's bouncing up to test resistance. The first resistance is near the current level, up to 531.84. Resistance lines are scattered widely above it since it fell so quickly. If it bounces just as quickly, it can move through some of these, but if it steadies instead, they'll converge overhead. The OEX needs to maintain levels above 532.34 to stop the downward cant of its smallest Keltner channel and above 533.27 to turn it higher again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:14:41 AM
10:05 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:13:24 AM
The BIX opened near the 30-dma that had supported it for seven days and on which it closed yesterday, and is again falling beneath that average as it did yesterday. The stochastics are fully bearish after having signaled bearish divergence when the BIX broke out to new relative highs recently. Yesterday and on many several other occasions over the last month, the BIX has found support at its 72-ema, now at 345.26, converging with the 50-dma, now at 345.58. If it should drop that far, watch for a possible bounce again or for a fall through those converging averages and then through the 100-sma at 344.22 as a sign that the BIX is attempting to break through the bottom support of its recent consolidation pattern. That would look more bearish for the general markets.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:12:17 AM
The 60 min cycle channels are joining the 30 min channels in rolling over. Yesterday's lows are next in the crosshairs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:06:40 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,974.68 -0.75% .... within 10-points of DAILY S1.

Thinking much below 9,963 could see 9,900, thus bearish day trader thoughts on GE.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:06:02 AM
The OEX came up to test the Keltner channel that it just violated this morning. So far, the Keltner lines are converging above the current OEX position, not under it. They're forming at resistance rather than support. That first resistance is at 531.98 now, and the OEX does look to be pointed toward 530.43. It needs to get above that first resistance to even begin to halt the decline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:02:13 AM
Session high for ten year bonds despite the repo drain- TNX down 1.6 bps to 4.446%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:01:11 AM
Day trade short alert .... General Electric (GE) $32.64 here, stop $32.90, target $32.01.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:01:06 AM
QQQ at 34.45 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:00:33 AM
Session lows across the board here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:57:19 AM
Net drain of 7B from the Fed- that's a big drain, and I read it as reinforcing Moskow's comments this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:53:08 AM
The OEX is breaking through the 532.31 support on the Keltner chart. Unless it can steady or bounce quickly, it's now setting up a possible downside target of 530.51, with a move through that target (dynamic, so changing as the OEX moves) setting up a downside breakout situation on the five-minute chart.

A steadying or quick bounce will suggest that it didn't really break through that support because it will allow the Keltner lines to snake under it again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:51:13 AM
Awaiting the 10AM fed announcement regarding the disposition of the expiring 8.75B overnight repo.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:51:12 AM
The OEX again approaches mid-channel support on the weekly chart. That support extends down to 528.34, but could be bulged downward a little more without truly breaking the support, depending on whether it bounced back quickly or not. The bottom of the QCharts-drawn regression channel is all the way down at 523 or so. I'm not suggesting that the OEX will drop that far, but only looking at possible vulnerabilities. As I type, the OEX is trying to steady and turn up to face overhead resistance. In Keltner form, that's now at 534.25 and again at 534.89-535.00. The OEX needs to maintain levels above that first number to stop the downward tilt of its smallest channel and needs to be above the second zone to turn that channel higher again, toward 536.30 next resistance. Bears should again be guarding their profits as the OEX moves into that weekly support zone again.

Remember that it's possible that the OEX will spend a couple of weeks or more near the converging support on its weekly Keltner chart, consolidating recent losses before it decides what direction to take on a weekly basis. As I mentioned in my 21:44 report on the OEX, "near" can have a different direction when we're talking about the weekly chart, though, and the OEX could easily move around in a 10-15-point range and still look near that support on the weekly chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:49:59 AM
Gold is up to 391.90 after the earlier drop, but the miners are getting whacked again, with HUI down 1.93% to 181.71, XAU -1.68% to 85.05.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:48:50 AM
The TRINQ is respectably high at 2.54. The question is whether it's high enough to signal a selling climax - we've seen much higher readings than this in the past. This is something I'll be keeping my eye on more closely.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:40:48 AM
Still pointed toward 532.58, the OEX now will face converging resistance at 534.80-535.10 and again at 536-536.50 when if it tries to rise. The OEX would need to maintain levels above that first zone to halt the descent of its smallest channel, while it would need to get above 539.50 to turn it higher again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:39:10 AM
The absence of a bounce has the 30 minute cycle channels rolling over for QQQ and the indices, while the longer 60 min channel remains flat with support in play now. A break of current support should find buyers at 34.45, followed by 34.38 and 34.25 QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:36:04 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 534.28 to 533.54.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  9:35:50 AM
200-day SMA alert ... Verizon (VZ) $35.65 +3.29% Link ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:33:52 AM
30 min channel support is being broken here on all equity indices. 60 min support is at 34.51 QQQ, 9960 for the Dow futures, currently being tested for ES and NQ. I expect the decline to at least slow as channel support is tested.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:31:53 AM
The OEX drops in early trading, keeping the smallest channel on the five-minute nested Keltner chart pointed down, toward 532.70. The OEX needs to rise above 535.31, maintaining those values, and then above 536.37 to turn that channel higher again, toward 539.52.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  9:27:19 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

Should HL Camp update today's buy/sell program levels, I will post them in the MM.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:20:50 AM
Jim, here's what's coming off the wire:

9:18am FED'S MOSKOW: MEASURED PACE WITH RATE HIKES LIKELY

9:19am MOSKOW: FED READY TO STEP UP RATE-HIKE PACE IF NEEDED

9:20am MOSKOW: FED NOT SURE WHAT NEUTRAL RATE TARGET IS

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  9:17:25 AM
Fed Moskow saying that low interest rates are no longer appropriate and the June rate hike was only the first step in returning to a neutral policy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:15:55 AM
Looking at the NQ futures as a proxy for the QQQ, the 30 minute cycle is trying to roll over early from its upphase, with the daily remains in the early stages of an uppase- actually confirmed by the higher low put in so far in this admittedly young daily candle.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  8:38:45 AM
Gold has lost 392 support, bouncing here from a low of 390. Dow futures also cracked 10000 but bounced from 9993, currently back to 10008.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  8:11:40 AM
There are no major economic reports due this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  8:09:32 AM
Equities are down today, ES -2 to 1091.75, NQ -10 to 1395, and YM -12 to 10004, with QQQ -.21 to 34.66. Gold is down 2.50 to 392.90, silver -.101 to 6.334 and ten year bonds +.03 to 110.5312.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  7:04:00 AM
Good morning. Early Friday morning, Japan's May Tertiary Industry Index was released. It had been rumored that the index might show a worse-than-expected result, a particularly troublesome development when the new GDP estimate was just raised this week. The rumors were right, with the index down 1.0% month-over-month against an expectation of a 0.1% rise. The all-industries figure also fell, by 0.7% month-over-month, against an expectation of a rise.

The Nikkei opened just above 11,250, and then tumbled below 11,200 in the morning session. It closed under that level, too, at 11,187.33, down 97.71 points or 0.87%. Issues related to domestic demand dropped as a result of the downside surprise in the tertiary index. With crude prices rising, exporters fell. Canon and Honda were among the exporters dropping in early trading, with Canon closing 1.5% lower despite the CEO's reported statement that H1 earnings will beat its forecast. Tech stocks were weak, a fallout from MSFT and AMZN earnings last night. Tokyo Electron declined 2.1%. One stock performing well was the troubled trading house, Sojitz Holdings. The stock climbed 6% during trading, and after the close reported that several banks will infuse it with capital.

Other Asian bourses were mixed, but mostly lower, with semi-related stocks weak throughout Asia. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.26%. In South Korea, the LGPhillips LCD joint venture, a joint venture between Philips Electronics and South Korea's LG Electronics, debuted and had disappointing results, with the debut price being below the initial IPO price and with shares dropping 5.1%. South Korea's Kospi was down 0.69%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.68%, with Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing dropping 6% after reporting increased demand that helped it see profit for the second quarter, but trimming its sales forecast for the current quarter. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.27%, one of the few bourses gaining in Asia. CFSB raised estimates for some of China's oil producers, also increasing estimates for H2 oil prices. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, down only 0.042 points or 0.00%.

European bourses mostly trade higher as many techs make slight gains. In addition, Volkswagen's anticipated trimming of forecasts turned out to trim them less than anticipated, and DaimlerChrysler reached a labor agreement. Both were rising in early trading. One company not joining in the European gains is Philips Electronics, easing slightly due to the poor showing of its joint venture IPO with LG Electronics. In the U.K., drug stocks and banks were gaining, with drugmaker AstraZeneca (AZN) beating Q2 earnings forecast. At least two analysts reiterated their overweight or outperform ratings on the company.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 26.60 points or 0.62%, to 4,332.90. The CAC 40 is up only 1.24 points or 0.03%, to 3,574.08. The DAX has climbed 6.15 points or 0.16%, to 3,807.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  9:44:45 PM
Thursday, the OEX dipped down to the 530-533 level that the weekly Keltner charts had suggested might be seen, but had also suggested might hold as support. Now what? A look back at the weekly chart shows that the OEX usually lingers near this particular configuration of support lines for two or more weeks after touching it, but "lingers near" can have a different definition when you're looking at a weekly chart than when you're looking at a five-minute one. That lingering might span a 12-15-point range, certainly a tradable range. Will it? That doesn't seem the likeliest event tomorrow, although chart configurations could change as the day progresses.

That same weekly chart shows that bulls want to see the OEX sustain values above 544.05 on a weekly basis in order to begin turning the smallest daily channel up toward next weekly resistance, at 559.58. They suggest that a sustained fall below 530.98 on a weekly basis would turn that smallest Keltner channel lower, toward next support, at 499.16. However, there's a caveat. Those Keltner lines can be bulged outward a little without their resistance or support actually being violated, and "a little" might have a different interpretation on a weekly chart than on a daily or intraday one. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an intra-week move down to 525-527, and, depending on the setup and how the week ended, not have that Keltner support violated. I'm not suggesting that the slide down to that level will necessarily occur, but only that it could, and that the weekly support could be considered as having held.

The daily Keltner chart shows the OEX still in danger of sliding down toward 504, and it may require several days of consolidation or slow sliding a little lower before we know whether the just-approached daily Keltner lines near 529-530 will hold, as they've held every time the OEX has pulled back since the first of the year. The OEX needs to steady above 527-529 long enough for the Keltner lines to flatten and snake under them, or else the OEX needs to bounce quickly and leave them behind. If that bounce should happen, that daily chart suggests that on that initial swing up, at least, likely upside will be capped somewhere between 545-547.50 and possibly even near 538.50-539.

The daily MACD is still bearish. Market participants are still skittish. Buyers finally stepped in today--brave buyers--and they drove the OEX up to the first expected strong resistance level but couldn't move it higher. We could have consolidation in a ten- or fifteen-point range over two or three weeks, all a part of the process of reversing the markets or of building a "b" distribution pattern in preparation for another fall. Either way, once the OEX breaks out, we're looking at another opportunity for a good directional play. In the meantime, we may be in for some range-bound trading again, so let's look at what the intraday charts show as possible trading ranges for tomorrow.

The OEX is below the mid-channel level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but with the smaller channel still pointed higher. It's above the mid-channel level on the five-minute chart, but with the smallest channel flattening. Mixed evidence, and that's no surprise when bulls and bears are both trying to figure out what happens next. The five-minute chart suggests that in earliest trading tomorrow morning, the OEX needs to get back above 535.65 and hopefully above 536.42 to turn the smallest channel higher again, toward 539.40. If the OEX should instead fall and maintain levels below 534.60 or so, it's going to turn the smallest channel lower again, toward 532.80, and back toward 531 if that level doesn't hold.

The move from 535.50 to 538-539 is not a big one, but perhaps a tradable one. That's going to be a trade fraught with lots of danger ahead of the weekend event danger, when some might decide to bail ahead of the weekend. The move down from 535.50 to 529-532 is also not a big one, but also possibly a tradable one. It's also fraught with danger as markets are so near strong weekly support and bulls know where at least short-term support was found. I'll be following the OEX's movement tomorrow, updating these if/then statements regarding the OEX's movements. Be careful.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  9:25:22 PM
NYSE NH/NL Chart with "f"ive day (using conventional 3-box reversal) at this Link

NASDAQ NH/NL Chart with "f"ive day at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  8:41:13 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $33.62 Link .... $35.45 was last tick in after-hours.

Reported Q2 net loss of $2.3 million, or $0.13 per share, which was narrower than consensus estimates for loss of $0.17. OSTK said revenues surged 204% to $87.8 million from year-ago quarter's $28.8 million. Analysts expected quarterly revenues of $78 million.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   7/22/200,  8:11:05 PM
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