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  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  4:11:19 PM
Session high for GE and SPX futures here.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  4:09:31 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

Today's trades ....

Day trade short VZ $36.86, closed at $38.28 (+$0.40, or +1.03%)

Day trade short SBC $25.22, stopped at $25.28 (-$0.06, or -0.24%)

Day trade short NEM $40.47, hold over weekend (still open).

This week's closed out trades at this Link

Look for updated Pivot Matrix and Closing internals in this weekend's Index Trader Wrap.

Have a great weekend!

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  4:01:35 PM
My mother was right... Never go outside without your SOX. Woulda, coulda, shoulda... taken that last buy signal, but who knows what the weekend has in store? What a day... Have a great weekend everybody.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  4:00:29 PM
And the TRAN is closing right on its 30-dma, an important average for the TRAN lately.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  3:59:56 PM
SBC Communications (SBC) $25.34 -0.27% ...erases losses from $25.00 to the close.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:59:54 PM
The Russell 2000 looks as if may end the day printing a doji or near doji right on the 200-ema with that average at 550.98.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:58:35 PM
The OEX's weekly chart shows that for the fifth week in a row, the OEX has found resistance at the basis line for its smallest channel, not able to move above that basis line into the top portion of the channel, as it needs to do it it's going to turn it higher again. That basis line is at 541.85. The OEX is still testing the Keltner support, not yet violating it, with that support ranging down to 526, but not yet able to make the moves that will start to turn the weekly smallest channel higher.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:57:50 PM
And the OEX does break above that Keltner resistance, to head toward 537.73, as I said I wouldn't be surprised to see it do. That's not the most likely outcome predicted by the chart configuration, but I was drawing from my experience with the last 20 minutes of trading. Since the OEX is now approaching the 60-minute 100/130-ema's that have been resistance most of the week, it's possible that gains will slow, with the 100-ema being tested now and the 130-ema up at 538.39. Honestly, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX driven up above the 130-ema although I think time is going to run out. I sure would want to wait and see follow-through Monday morning if that happened, though.

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  3:50:11 PM
If we get a MACD bullish kiss on the 1-min SPX chart rather than a bearish cross we may just take out SPX 1100 again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  3:47:50 PM
Coming in for a retest of that lower flag resistance at QQQ 34.87, with 34.90 resistance just above it. The 30 min channel is still pointed south, with channel resistance now at the session high of 35.10 and support down to 34.62.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:44:54 PM
So far, that Keltner resistance is holding, but I never trust these last minutes of the day, when chart characteristics often don't matter at all.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  3:43:25 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) update alert .... $40.30 +1.89% .... will close out if NEM trades $40.07 before the close (this week's pivot is $40.07).

Otherwise, will hold over the weekend.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:41:05 PM
Keltner resistance at 536.35-536.50 still looks strong, but we're moving into the last twenty minutes of trade, when anything can and might happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see that resistance broken (although it looks strong), sending the OEX toward 537.60.

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  3:37:03 PM
There was actually a pretty good sell signal on the SPX 1-min chart at the 2:40 swing high to 1100.50 but I ignored it because I thought the market was going to begin trending higher. Even so, it would have only resulted in about +3 points if you caught the very top and exited at the last swing low. I'm actually showing a buy signal right now at SPX 1098 using the same 1-min chart trading system but I don't trust this one either. As other writers have stated, this is probably a good time not to play on the train tracks. Today may end up being a standoff.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  3:35:38 PM
Daily chart of Naz futures: Link as a proxy for QQQ with pre- and post-market data. This week gave us a daily cycle upphase within which we have a 30 min downphase kicking off from a bearish oscillator divergence. I'm looking for Wednesday's low to hold for a bottom on that 30 min cycle downphase to confirm the overriding daily cycle upphase. If that occurs (next week), we should see today's session highs exceeded on the 30 min upphase that follows.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:32:05 PM
The OEX fell through the right-shoulder level of that potential reverse H&S, showing us that bulls did not have the strength even finish the formation, much less confirm it. The OEX still has not violated lower Keltner support on the five-minute chart, now at 535.04, with that support slipping lower with the OEX. There hasn't been a big enough move down to violate it, but rather a stepping down of each low. Still, the smallest channel is pointed down toward 533.32, and unless the OEX can maintain values above 536.27-536.51, it will stay pointed lower.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  3:26:41 PM
30 min support is falling to 34.65 QQQ here, 60 min channel support 34.70 still.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  3:22:50 PM
34.90 QQQ was strong support and should now act as resistance. The last touch of that level blew off in a 100-tick doji.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:19:28 PM
The OEX is pulling back, the first action I advised watching for in my 15:14 post. Now, let's see whether the OEX steadies near 535.50 or crashes through the possible right-shoulder level in a potential inverse H&S.

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  3:17:32 PM
On the 1-min SPX chart we're getting a bit of an expanding wedge going, and we're approaching the top. We could still blow to the upside, although time is running out.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:14:04 PM
Watch now for the possibility that the OEX could turn down from 536.50-537, and then drop back to 535.50-535.60 or so. Such an action would set up the possibility of the OEX forming a reverse H&S on the five-minute chart. A drop through 535 rejects the potential formation. A move through the potential neckline before even forming a right shoulder shows much underlying short-term bullishness. A lot of these have fallen apart lately, but they can give us that kind of information, at least.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:09:27 PM
An impulsive move up to test Keltner resistance on the OEX.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  3:08:24 PM
Short cycle 2-day QQQ update at this Link , with price testing and trying to break lower support on what could be a bull wedge. I have no confidence in so bullish an interpretation, however- could go either way here, although the lack of price traction on this short cycle downphase is encouraging.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  3:07:41 PM
Nearest Keltner resistance on the OEX is at 535.90, and bears would like to see that hold. Above that, Keltner resistance from 536.46-536.60 looks strong. Nearby support at 535.30 or so looks relatively strong, too, especially when viewed on the 15-minute chart. Bears want to see that support broken next. They do not want to see the OEX maintain values above 536.60, as that would turn its smallest Keltner channel higher again on the 5-minute chart. I'm not sure, however, if that Keltner support can be broken this afternoon or if bulls will succeed in keeping the OEX afloat this afternoon. As I write, it looks vulnerable down to the 533-534 level without a promise that it will reach that level, with 536-538 looking as if it would be difficult resistance for the OEX.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  3:03:48 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:56:56 PM
I'll make it rule #4 after "Remember to breathe, don't lose money and take profits".

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:55:56 PM
Off topic but word to the wise: never attempt to repair broken office furniture using contact cement during trading hours.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  2:54:06 PM
And the OEX pops right back above the 30-minute 100-ema, trying to hold onto it as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:51:54 PM
The doji attempt failed. Time to watch the lower 30 and 60 min channel support lines, both of which line up at 34.70.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  2:51:49 PM
The OEX appears to be turning down again from its test of the broken triangle supporting trendline and the Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart, with that resistance looking strong from 536.65-536.86. The OEX still has to get below the 7/29 low of 535.28 to confirm the breakdown, though, as well as below the 30-minute 100-ema at 535.44. It's breaking below that -ema as I type, but needs to soundly break it and Keltner support (535.40) to put in place that 533.45 target, the bottom of the ascending regression channel built this week as well as bottom Keltner support before a breakout.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:50:02 PM
QQQ breaking its previous low here but trying for a doji on the 100-tick candle.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:47:41 PM
NYMEX crude to a new high at 43.85, +1.10. QQQ remains far ahead of its peers, with the OEX still in negative territory. Like yesterday, this could well be either distribution or consolidation near the highs. I frankly expected more downside on the break of 34.90 earlier- the short cycle oscillators are approaching oversold territory, still not there yet but getting close, with so far only mininal losses in price.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  2:44:05 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  2:42:55 PM
The SOX is nearing it's HOD again. If we can just take out the 11:25 swing high on SPX we may just get some traction to the upside. Things are getting more volatile which usually precedes a good move... wish I knew which way, but it's crunch time and something should happen here pretty soon.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  2:37:06 PM
It might be time to consider going long ZBRA again. The stock has bounced from its simple 100-dma and now the rebound is back above the $80 mark and its simple 10, 21, 40 and 50-dma's. Target $90.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  2:36:33 PM
The OEX looks to be forming a possible bear flag above the 30-minute 100-ema, with that flag rising up to retest (once again) the violated ascending trendline that formed the bottom support of the symmetrical triangle, and to test the Keltner resistance gathering between 536.50-536.80. I had feared that a breakdown out of the triangle would see support at that 30-minute 100-ema, which is why I had mentioned that bears shouldn't bank too much on the downside until that average was violated, too. It's natural to see a retest of broken support to see if it will now hold as resistance, but this failure to break to a new low also sheds some doubt on the breakdown.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  2:34:16 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $40.47 +2.32% .... day trader's thoughts on this chart. Link

  James Brown   7/30/200,  2:32:11 PM
Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP) is seeing steady follow through on its recent breakout from a three-month trading range. Now shares are cracking resistance at the $35.00 mark. The stock looks cleared for a run toward the $40 region. The bullish P&F chart points to a $52 target.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:27:57 PM
Crude oil just hit a new high at 43.775.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  2:26:24 PM
Stock traders can check out auto parts maker Visteon (VC). Shares are bouncing from oversold conditions and support at the simple 200-dma near $10. Short-term technicals are pointing higher and its P&F chart remains bullish. Traders could use a tight stop and target resistance near $12.25-12.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:26:01 PM
NYMEX crude is back to the highs, currently up 2.22% at 43.70, session high 43.75.

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  2:22:55 PM
Using Jeff's "inchworm" theory you'd think the SOX (@ +1.58%) would easily pull the Dow (@ -0.30%) out of it's slumber, but the TRIN is trending up and currently printing a nasty looking 1.67. Let's hope the inchworm behaves himself today.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:19:06 PM
That was a lower high just printed on the bounce, failing at 35, compared with a prior high of 35.07, which itself was lower than the previous high at 35.10. This action in the wavelet bounces suggests that the short cycle is rolling over, and the only issue here is whether the short cycle downphase, which is not yet oversold, will take the 30 min cycle down with it.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  2:17:55 PM
Boeing (BA) is really soaring this week up four days in a row and nearing new multi-year highs. Its MACD has produced a new buy signal and its P&F chart has moved into a new column of X's. The bullish target is $62.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  2:14:27 PM
The OEX retests the former supporting trendline of the triangle and the Keltner resistance. So far, that resistance is holding.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:13:36 PM
2-day short cycle QQQ update at this Link . 34.90 is looking to hold here, but bulls will need to clear the previous highs to reignite the 30 min cycle upphase, which stalled out on the rapid dip preceding this bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  2:12:12 PM
02:10 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  2:07:27 PM
The OEX bounced off the 30-minute 100-ema, but it hasn't broken back above Keltner resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  2:02:09 PM
Amazing resilience here for QQQ at 34.90- has been hanging on by its fingernails for half an hour now as the short cycle oscillators work lower. The 30 min channel is down to 35.12 resistance / 34.76 support.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  1:57:13 PM
Day trade short alert for Newmont Mining (NEM) $40.47 here, stop $40.78, target $39.60.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  1:49:21 PM
Beware the trendline breaks that cometh during the stop-running period from 1:35-1:55. Didn't Shakespeare write something like that? The OEX tests the 30-minute 100-ema, so the downside break is still in question. As I type, Keltner resistance appears stronger than support, with that resistance at 536.38-537.13, and with lower resistance at 536. The Keltners now suggest a move down toward 533.58 unless the OEX can break over that named resistance and stay above it.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  1:45:45 PM
Session low for Dow futures just now. QQQ is just letting go of 34.90 support.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  1:37:29 PM
Session low for GE here, session high for 10-yr bonds with TNX resting on 4.8% support at 4.81% currently, -9.6 bps.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  1:37:27 PM
If the neckline of that inverse H&S I displayed on the chart linked to my 13:09 post was a descending one, the OEX is now testing/slipping below that neckline. If it was a horizontal one, it's already below it. Bears need to see that 30-minute 100-ema and yesterday's low violated.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  1:35:14 PM
The OEX low from yesterday was 535.28, just below the 30-minute 100-ema at 535.43. Those in bearish positions want to see that low exceeded to the downside.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  1:33:59 PM
34.90 support cracking here.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  1:33:25 PM
The 30 min cycle channels are rolling over, with channel support dipping below 34.80 here. If a 30 min cycle downphase launches from here, bears will get their bearish oscillator divergence discussed earlier.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  1:33:00 PM
SBC Communications (SBC) $25.08 -1.25% ...

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  1:32:21 PM
The OEX threatens to break through the lower support line on its symmetrical triangle . . . oops, just did. The five-minute Keltner chart shows it breaking minimally below mid-channel support, with further support near 536.30. Keltners suggest that a sustained move below 536 would likely see a test of 533.66, but there are those 30-minute 100/130-ema's to get through, so I'm not sure whether to trust a break of that Keltner support if such a break should occur. I began this week thinking that 536-537 might be difficult for the OEX to exceed, but then there was that move up into the 539.50-542.00 resistance zone. That exceeded my expectations to the upside for the first test of that zone, at least.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  1:30:45 PM
Short cycle QQQ update at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  1:25:39 PM
The OEX tests the bottom support of the symmetrical triangle on its intraday charts. If that support should be broken on a move much below 536.60, watch the 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 535.42 and 535.97, for possible support. If the OEX bounces, watch the top of the triangle near 538.45 and the 60-minute versions of those averages for possible resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  1:20:38 PM
Jim, I think you nailed it earlier when you discussed the Fed stimulus angle. Bonds are rising, drilling rates lower, which relieves some of the pressure caused by higher oil. The promise of the Fed lightening up takes the edge off the economic data and rallying oil- that's my guess.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  1:16:00 PM
QQQ is coming in for another test of the rising triangle support line at 34.90.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  1:11:52 PM
Getting quite a few intra-day downside al_rts I had set.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  1:09:30 PM
Here are some things I'm observing on the OEX's 30-minute chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  1:08:13 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   7/30/200,  1:02:15 PM
Have to watch those gremlins. They like to play tricks on new writers.

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  1:00:21 PM
A passing Good Samaritan has fixed the links in my 12:07 post (thanks Jim)

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  12:59:27 PM
Bullish view of QQQ short cycle chart at this Link , with key support at 34.90.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  12:58:46 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  12:54:24 PM
Session low for euro futures here.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  12:51:33 PM
The market's feeling very slow here, with QQQ and the futures working on what so far is looking like a lower high.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:51:25 PM
Ouch! One of today's biggest losers has to be Primus Telecom Group (PRTL). The stock is down more than 46% to $1.78. Last night the company reported earnings and they were not strong. Analysts were expecting earnings of 10 cents on revenues of $348 million. PRTL turned in a loss of 17 cents on $331.6 million in revenues.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  12:47:19 PM
Gold has pulled back to 389.60 after peaking at 392.20, failing at resistance, while HUI is up 2% and XAU is up 2.03%. NYMEX crude is up .75 at 43.50, holding its gains, as are bonds, with TNX down at 4.488%, just above 4.48% support.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:45:58 PM
Yesterday Nordstrom (JWN) closed at new all-time highs. Today the stock is down 2.22% to $44.41 after Prudential downgraded the stock to "under weight" on valuation concerns.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  12:43:39 PM
Normally, I'd be listing various support and resistance levels on the Keltner chart, listing if/then statements about likely direction. However, I think the 60-minute (resistance) and 30-minute (support) 100/130-ema's and the narrowing symmetrical triangle are going to rule trading for a while with the Keltner channels settling into an equilibrium position prior to a possible breakout. Earlier, the OEX was oscillating from one side of its middle channel (as drawn on my charts) and now it's narrowed its pattern to trade from one side to the other of its smallest channel. Intraday oscillators are flattening, just as expected with a triangle formation, and now we just have to wait it out. That triangle narrows to its apex about 11:00 Monday morning, but prices often break out about 2/3 of the way through, which would be between 2-3:00 this afternoon.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  12:42:17 PM
I had mentioned earlier today that bulls needed to hold price up long enough for the 30 min oscillators to catch up. Well, price is still where it belongs, and the 300 min stochastic is rising, but it's doing so very slowly, and the bearish divergence is still easily on the table. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 35.20, and bulls want to see the previous low at 34.87 hold on any retest. Lower 30 min channel support is up to 34.80, 60 min channel support at 34.60. I expect the eventual 30 min cycle downphase to test those levels unless we get a sharp rally from here, but so long as the Wednesday lows don't get broken, we'll have confirmation of the daily cycle upphase that began asserting itself Wednesday afternoon.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:41:05 PM
InterMune (ITMN) is down 7.85% to $11.97 as Wall Street downgrades the stock after the company beat earnings by 3 cents but guided lower on revenues. Nesbitt cut ITMN to "neutral" and Legg Mason sliced ITMN to "sell".

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  12:39:24 PM
Wow! It's a lovefest! Thank you all.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  12:38:52 PM
And from me too, Mark. Love your pictures.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:37:51 PM
Welcome to the club, Mark.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  12:37:06 PM
Welcome from me, too, Mark. I've been looking forward to hearing from you since your name appeared on the posting page.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:36:13 PM
Jane, Regarding STEM... I thought so too.

  Jane Fox   7/30/200,  12:35:44 PM
Heh Mark - I was getting some breakfast and didn't see your post. Welcome aboard.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:35:35 PM
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) is up more than 2% today to $26.08 after Bank of America started coverage on XMSR with a "buy". XMSR's MACD indicator is close to producing a new "buy" signal. The company is due to report earnings on August 5th.

  Jane Fox   7/30/200,  12:34:58 PM
James, STEM may be a good company to watch around the first of November. Democrats support stem cell research and this company may benefit from a Democratic president.

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  12:34:02 PM
Thanks Keene... now if I can just get my links to work, lol

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  12:32:58 PM
The OEX heads toward the top descending line of the symmetrical triangle it's established on its five-minute chart. It heads toward it, but hasn't yet touched it, temporarily finding resistance lower. That line crosses now at about 538.60. The 60-minute 130-ema is at 538.51 and the last five-minute high was 538.80.

  Keene Little   7/30/200,  12:32:13 PM
Hey Mark! Welcome aboard! Having had the pleasure of emailing with you since I've been here, I'm really looking forward to your input in the Market Monitor.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:32:10 PM
StemCells Inc (STEM) is up more than 4% to $1.50 per share after reporting Q2 earnings with a loss of 8 cents per share compared to a loss of 9 cents the year earlier.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:29:52 PM
NETGEAR Inc (NTGR) is up 23.6% to $11.25 after the company reported earnings last night and beat estimates by 3 cents a share. The stock is also boosted by an upgrade from Needham to a "strong buy".

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  12:27:58 PM
Bearish Day trade stop alert for SBC $25.28 here.

Was trading RED #4 at time of entry and thought might get RED #6 ($25.08) like VZ.

  Mark Davis   7/30/200,  12:27:03 PM
My SOX-dicator is pointing up today, although not as strongly as earlier in the morning. The SOX has been the tail that wags the dog for some time now and I see no indication of that changing. The SOX leads the charge up or down. If the SOX is declining strongly it drags down the Nasdaq, which in turn drags the other indices down... like dominoes. The SOX is only one indicator among many but the last 18 months have proven it warrants heavy
weighting, until it stops working.

Here is a chart I drew of the SOX on July 1st: Link

Here is what has happened in the interim Link

Has the SOX bottomed? Possibly. It has shaken off the Intel chip delay news this morning and some semiconductor downgrades by Merrill Lynch, not to mention the suicide bombings at the American and Israeli Embassies in Uzbekistan.

Having said that, if the SOX reverses back down sharply the ripples could take the indices down toward the May lows and even threaten to take them out (that’s bad, as Bill Murray sometimes says).

Another factor to consider is the abnormally high levels of Mutual Fund cash Jim mentioned recently. If there are no further terror events through the Olympics all that cash may trump everything and we may be headed up for a while, however this market warrants caution. I don’t like the entire consensus that we’ve bottomed (right where we were supposed to). You know what happens when there’s too much consensus.

I wish the TRIN looked a little better today, but that can change quickly.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  12:22:52 PM
Day trade short alert ..... for SBC Communications (SBC) $25.22 here, stop $25.28, target $25.08.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:21:38 PM
Software maker Siebel Systems (SEBL) is trying to breakout to the upside from its recent trading range. The stock is up 2.5% to $8.21 and challenging its simple 21-dma.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:19:58 PM
Smith Barney has upgraded oil services stock Baker Hughes (BHI) to a "buy" with a $50 price target. Morgan Stanley reiterates their "over weight". The broker calls follow BHI's earnings yesterday where the company beat estimates by 4 cents and guided higher.

BHI is breaking out over resistance at $40.00-40.50 and hitting new highs not seen since June 2001. The move has also produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart, which points to a $61 target.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  12:19:57 PM
Verizon (VZ) $38.25 -1.59% ... gets trade at RED #6.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  12:16:56 PM
Bearish day trade target alert closing out Verizon (VZ) $38.28

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:16:33 PM
Xybernaut (XYBR) has just won a patent for a wearable computer and garment system. The focus seems to be on military/law enforcement body-armor type suits.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  12:16:08 PM
The OEX is narrowing its range now, forming a triangle with an upside breakout currently at about 538.74 and a downside one at 536.30. I'd sure want to see a breakout above the 60-minute 130-ema before I believed too strongly in an upside breakout, however, and a downside break below the 30-minute 100-ema before I believed too strongly in a downside break. The OEX doesn't look to be anywhere near a 2/3 move into that triangle, though, a common place for a breakout. If I'm measuring correctly, the OEX wouldn't be 2/3 of the way into that triangle until sometime between 2:00-3:00 this afternoon. That may mean that we're in for a narrower and narrower trading band for a few hours. And of course it means that all oscillators will flatten, so that we'll have nothing to guide us but price movement itself.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:10:13 PM
Chip maker IRF is up nearly 9% after reporting earnings yesterday evening. The company beat Wall Street estimates by a penny and guided higher for the next quarter. The stock has broken out from its two week trading range and is now pushing through its 40 and 50-dma's. Shares are currently challenging the $40.00 mark.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  12:06:52 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert ..... for Verizon (VZ) $38.36 -1.31% ... to $38.50

  James Brown   7/30/200,  12:06:29 PM
Software stock THQ Inc (THQI) is down more than 6% (to $19.19) but up off its lows for the session. The stock is falling through the bottom of its long-term rising channel as investors react to its earnings report last night. THQI missed estimates by a penny and guided lower for the next quarter. Wall Street has responded with multiple downgrades.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  12:00:18 PM
While the OEX is finding resistance at its 60-minute 100/130-ema's, it's finding support at the 30-minute versions, at 535.30 and 535.90, respectively. I wouldn't assume too much of a downward bias for the OEX until prices violate that 30-minute 100-ema, then.

When looking at the OEX through a less-traditional method, the nested Keltner channels, the five-minute chart shows that if 536 is violated and the violation sustained, 533 is possible with a lower move producing a downside breakout. If 538.76 is violated to the upside and that number sustained, 540.24 is possible with a higher move producing a breakout situation.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  11:59:58 AM
Shares of DISH, an OI put play, tried to bounce this morning but the rally is failing at the simple 10-dma.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  11:58:41 AM
OI call play Symantec (SYMC) continues to rally with another 1% gain today to $46.78.

  James Brown   7/30/200,  11:56:21 AM
Recently added call play ADSK has been triggered on today's breakout over resistance at $40.00. The stock is up 2.3% and its MACD has produced a new buy signal.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  11:52:29 AM
The US Dollar Index has bounced to its pre-8:30 levels, 30 min delayed chart at this Link , but gold remains firm, up 3.40 at 390.50. NYMEX crude is holding its gains as well, up .725 at 43.475.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  11:48:46 AM
30 min channel support is up to 34.74, and 60 min support is up to 34.58. This drop has so far been a factor on only the wavelet oscillator, with the short cycle oscillators only beginning to turn down.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  11:46:33 AM
The OEX continues to show bearish divergence, Keltner style, with each approach of its smallest Keltner channel to the biggest Keltner channel's upper line. Each approach is stopped further away: the first early yesterday morning breaking above that biggest channel; the second about midday yesterday breaking out of it, but not to the same degree; the third late yesterday afternoon piercing the middle channel but not the upper one; and this morning's, not even piercing the middle channel. That may just be signaling that the OEX needs further tests of the mid-channel level or the neckline of its inverse H&S before it gathers the strength to thrust higher again, but it's certainly not a sign of strength. I'm not drawing too many conclusions because I think we're caught in chop right now, and it's been my feeling for a week that we might experience just such choppy behavior for a week or two at least. A directional break could perhaps come at any time, but especially when caught in the 536-539 zone, the OEX is just chopping around.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  11:38:38 AM
The OEX is still just waffling around between Keltner channel lines, just above the mid-channel level. Support is now grouping near 537.20-537.50, with mid-channel support below that at 536.59. That support is trying to firm up enough that it looks stronger that resistance, but it's difficult to assess whether it's there yet or not.

This waffling around fits the scenario I've had for this week, as the OEX usually spends at least a couple of weeks doing this once it's approached the particular weekly Keltner support that it approached last week. It may be about time for a directional move, or the OEX may spend another couple of weeks or more establishing another consolidation pattern or trading range.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  11:27:53 AM
The OEX still can't make it over those 60-minute 100/130-ema's. Although the current pattern on the five-minute chart could be a "p" accumulation pattern, it's perhaps a bit troubling that the bulb portion of the "p" is extending so long and that the OEX just can't get past those averages. The bearish price/MACD divergence continues and now the MACD threatens a bearish cross, although from above signal.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  11:22:42 AM
Session high for 10-yr bonds here at 110.5938. This has been a big 2 day move- TNX is now below 4.5% at 4.495%, -8 bps. Next support is 4.48%.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  11:14:58 AM
The OEX needs to hold 537.78 or at least 537.12 to avoid turning its smallest Keltner channel lower again. Resistance is now trying to snake overhead, from 538.45-538.90. Support is trying to converge, too, looking as if it could soon be strong if the OEX could only hold near the highs long enough, but support isn't quite firmed up yet. A quick fall now could send the OEX through several Keltner lines before it stopped.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  11:10:36 AM
Quick and dirty 30 min chart of the Naz futures at this Link , a proxy for the QQQ but including pre-market data. The sharp bounce here aborted the 30 min cycle downphase early, which is bullish, but the price has gotten far ahead of the stochastics here, setting us up for a potentially sharp drop IF the upphase whipsaws back down. A move back to the 34.50 level could be enough to abort this young upphase, and if that occurred before the oscillator could move higher, it would result in a steep bearish divergence. Bulls need to at least hold current gains long enough for the cycle picture to stabilize.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  11:06:31 AM
The OEX is now testing its 60-minute 130-ema, something it did through much of yesterday. MACD lines are still bullish but the histogram grows less so since midday yesterday, so there's a mixed picture during this test. Keltner channels show the OEX facing resistance at 538.87, with a breakout over that level pointing the OEX's smallest channel toward 540.26. Hasn't happened yet, though.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  11:03:57 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  11:02:58 AM
Session highs for QQQ and GE here- looks like the Dow is finally getting in gear.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:58:41 AM
Note that the VXO is higher by 1.62% at 15.71 with the SPX currently in the green. If those SPX gains continue, we should see the VXO continue its decline.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  10:53:12 AM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for Verizon (VZ) $38.44 -1.10% .... to break even $38.68.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:52:42 AM
The OEX is now turning its smallest Keltner channel higher again, but needs to maintain the current 537.80 level or at least 537.16 to keep that channel pointed higher. It needs to get above the 60-minute 130-ema and yesterday's high before bulls should feel any degree of comfort.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:51:01 AM
The OEX is moving up to challenge the 60-minute 130-ema now, with that average at 538.54.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:50:43 AM
Session highs for NQ and QQQ here.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:49:15 AM
The OEX is back at its 60-minute 100-ema at 537.25.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:48:27 AM
I'm noting that the Russell 2000 is just below its 200-ema (not -sma) at 550.97, with the Russell 2000 at 550.03 as I type. That average provided the bounce on 7/19, so may offer some degree of resistance today, too, although the Russell 2000 has moved through it easily enough on other occasions. It may or may not be all that important, but I offer the information anyway.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  10:47:52 AM
Verizon (VZ) $38.48 -1% ... here's my day trader's chart. Had placed a fitted 38.2% on it last night as potential "profit taking" candidate should economic data be weaker than expected. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:44:55 AM
QQQ printed a high at 35.02, and the 30 min Keltner channel has climbed to 35.05 here. The overbought short cycle oscillators are now more overbought, but for the moment both the 30 min and short cycle channels are pointing north.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:38:06 AM
The SOX is building on yesterday's gains, moving up toward the midline of the descending regression channel on my charts, although I think that channel is a little different than that drawn by some other writers. MACD is attempting a bullish cross, although from below signal. The 420-424 level may be difficult for the SOX, however.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  10:36:50 AM
SOX.X 416.13 +1.2% .... gets the trade at DAILY R1.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:34:58 AM
The TRAN has dropped back below the 30-dma and is now testing 3100 again, at 3102.66 as I type.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:31:34 AM
The OEX is still trying to hold onto mid-channel support on the five-minute chart, but it's barely clinging to that support, with its smallest channel turning lower now. The OEX needs to sustain values above 537.22 to turn that channel higher again, and keep it from pointing toward 532.53. Nearby support ranges from 535.49-535.89. Resistance is at the current 536.25 level for the OEX, at 536.56 and from 537.07-537.24.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:23:32 AM
The short cycle upphase is sputtering again, trying for a sell signal.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  10:22:50 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 414.06 +0.69% .... couldn't quite get a trade at DAILY R1 (415.78) with session high of 415.50.

QQQ $34.74 -0.11% just now off session high of $34.87.

With banks and brokers showing losses, I'd things shorts for the QQQ.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:22:48 AM
Here's what's been happening with respect to the nicely formed inverse H&S on the OEX's 60-minute chart, with two versions of the neckline as well as the (blue) 100- and 130-ema's included: Link On both versions, the OEX appears to be testing the neckline to see if it will hold as support. On one, it still seems that it's doing so, while that support is slipping a little on the other version. While retests can be expected, it may be a bit disappointing to bulls that the OEX made so little headway after breaking above that neckline before it turned around to make that test. That appears to show some jitteriness. Seen on this view, the OEX did not exactly explode after breaking above that neckline. The OEX could still go on to fulfill the upside target, but it's clear that it's got to get above the 60-minute 100/130-ema's first. Bulls don't want to see the OEX drop below yesterday's low, violating both necklines; bears don't want to see it climb above yesterday's high, breaking out above the 100/130-ema's.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:19:01 AM
New contract high for NYMEX crude at 43.50 here. QQQ is hitting a high as well. That combination of higher oil and higher QQQ can't, to my mind, last forever, as rallying oil should ultimately hurt equities. But for the moment, QQQ is aborting its short cycle downphase and reaching for 30 min channel resistance at 35.02.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:14:36 AM
Bifurcated markets here, with NQ and QQQ leading to the upside, Dow futures to the downside.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:13:58 AM
QQQ retesting the highs here.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  10:13:16 AM
10:11 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:10:06 AM
I'm showing NYMEX crude making a new contract high at 43.45 just now, currently back to 43.40, +1.52%.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:10:03 AM
Converging support lines on the OEX's 5-minute Keltner chart now begin to diverge, with support looking less firm now. That support ranges down to 535.59. A breakout there aims the smallest channel down toward 532.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:09:03 AM
QQQ is back to unchanged at 34.78, with gold to a session high at 392.20.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:04:56 AM
The OEX moves up to the 60-minute 100-ema and pulls back, slightly so far.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:04:52 AM
Gold is testing 392 resistance from below, currently up 3.90 at 391, with HUI +2.16% at 187.46 and XAU +1.88% at 87.36. Sept silver futurs are up 18 cents to 6.53.

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  10:03:08 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:03:07 AM
Crude oil is holding its gains, currently up at 43.25.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:02:40 AM
34.80 is the session high and range resistance. QQQ is testing it for the third time this morning.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  10:02:24 AM
If you draw an ascending regression channel that encompasses the OEX's action from Monday until today, or let QCharts do it for you, the OEX is currently perched on the midline of that regression channel. Bottom support is at about 532.21, showing a good correspondence with the 532.50-ish downside target suggested by Keltner charts if the mid-channel Keltner level doesn't hold as support. I'm watching this ascending regression channel on a 15-minute chart, and 15-minute MACD made a bearish cross yesterday and still heads down today. It has not crossed below the signal line although it approaches it. I've found that this is an iffy time for the MACD, as it sometimes flattens and turns up just when it had looked ready to plunge below signal.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  10:01:28 AM
The Fed has just announced an 8.25B weekend repo to replace the 8.25B expiring today, no net change for the day.

  Jim Brown   7/30/200,  10:00:12 AM
Chicago PMI = 64.7, (est 59.0, last 56.4)

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  9:58:40 AM
Back. It remains a sideways downphase for the short cycle, and because it's occurring during primetime for bears, my rose-colored glasses here see it as bullish. 30 min channel support remains 34.49, resistance is up to 35.01. Laughing out loud- good one, Jane! It does indeed.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  9:55:34 AM
The OEX can't make headway yet. It's headed back down toward the mid-channel support from 535.69-536.25. Bulls need to see that support hold, as a sustained violation of that support--something other than a brief piercing and quick bounce--will set up a possible downside target of 532.54.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  9:53:50 AM
The TRAN gapped up this morning but then began dropping back toward its key 30-dma at 3107.73, with the TRAN now less than 2 points above that average.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  9:50:53 AM
The OEX finds support at the mid-channel level from 535.78-536.42 and rises. OEX bulls need to see it sustain values above 537.74 to keep that smallest channel turned higher, but they really need to see it above the 60-minute 100/130-ema's.

  Jim Brown   7/30/200,  9:47:49 AM
Consumer Sentiment = 96.7, (est 96.3, last 96.0)

  Jeff Bailey   7/30/200,  9:47:36 AM
Day trade short alert .... for Verizon (VZ) $38.68 here, stop $38.90, target $38.25.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  9:47:33 AM
Technical difficulty here- back in a moment.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  9:46:01 AM
The OEX remains below the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that appeared to be key over the last couple of days. Those averages are at 537.36 and 538.55.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  9:42:20 AM
The first reversal of the day should begin in a few minutes, and we should know more about strength or weakness then. The OEX continues to test the mid-channel level, probing to see if it will hold as support. TRIN isn't supporting a strongly bullish mood just yet, but then Jane has warned us that early TRIN levels are sometimes not trustworthy.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  9:35:31 AM
As futures had suggested would happen, the OEX moves contrary to the prediction of the Keltner channels at the close yesterday. Instead of moving up toward 538, the OEX drops toward the mid-channel level. Support gathers at 535.75-536.52. Bulls want to see the OEX find support there, and then break back above 537.21 and sustain that level or preferably 539, above the 60-minute 130-ema.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  9:34:06 AM
The 30 min cycle oscillator are in a downphase that has yet to yield more than the 8:20-8:30 decline, and the Keltner channels still point north. The short cycles are pointed south in a so-far weak downphase. This is primetime for bears this AM, but so far the losses are minimal for QQQ and the Naz futures.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  9:22:06 AM
30 min delayed view of the 10 min USD Index at this Link . You can refresh the link and update it throughout the day.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  9:16:55 AM
I agree with Jim, and the futures appear to as well- QQQ is back to flat here, NQ down .50 at 1401. The binary dollar trade is still alive, and this morning it looks like a weak dollar can benefit US dollar denominated assets.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:49:02 AM
Update to the Uzbekistan explosion story- they're reporting casualties now: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:47:37 AM
Ten year yields are down 5 bps or 1.09% to 4.525%- look for previous strong resistance, now support, at 4.5%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:44:56 AM
QQQ is in a short cycle downphase from overbought territory, descending toward rising channel support at 34.48 currently Channel resistance is at 34.96 currently.

Bonds, gold, silver and euros to session highs here, all trading against the dollar here.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:40:00 AM
Gold is back above 388, up 3.60 to session high at 390.70, silver +.15 to 6.50 here.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:38:18 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:36:35 AM

TASHKENT (Reuters) - Explosions struck the prosecutor's office and the U.S. embassy in the Uzbek capital Tashkent on Friday, causing a number of casualties.

"An explosion has occurred outside the prosecutor's office," Svetlana Ardykova, head of the prosecution's press service said.

Russia's Interfax news agency said the explosion at the U.S. embassy had been caused by a suicide bomber with explosives attached to his waist.


  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:34:59 AM
TNX is lower to 4.55%, -2.6 bps.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:34:20 AM
Still digging for that link. Mark corrected himself and believes, as I initially heard, that it was Uzbekistan. Thanks to Jamil for pointing out that there's no Israeli embassy in Pakistan. I'll post the full story as soon as I find it.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:32:56 AM
Futures were recovering, then dipped again on the 8:30 release, and are now back up slightly, ES 1097.75, NQ 1396, YM 10096, QQQ 34.642. Gold is up 1.90 to a session high, crude oil 43.20.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:31:28 AM
8:30am U.S. Q1 GDP REVISED UP TO 4.5% VS 3.9% PREV


8:30am U.S. 2001 Q2 GDP REVISED FROM -0.6% TO 1.2% GAIN


8:30am U.S. Q2 CORE PCE PRICE INDEX FALLS TO 1.8% VS 2.1% Q1

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:30:33 AM
8:30am U.S. Q2 GDP UP 3.0% VS 3.6% EXPECTED

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:27:12 AM
Thanks to Mark for the email- he's saying it was in Pakistan- still searching.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:25:59 AM
I'm hearing (but have not seen) that CNBC is reporting explosions at US and Israeli embassies in Uzbekistan. Searching for a link to confirm it.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:24:46 AM
Bonds are at session highs here, with TNX quoted at 4.563%, -1.2 bps.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:23:44 AM
QQQ is currently -.11 at 34.67, ES 1098, NQ 1396.5, YM 10096.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:21:54 AM
Session lows across the board.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:21:04 AM
Sudden sell program hitting equities across the board at exactly 8:20AM.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:15:08 AM
NYMEX crude printed an overnight high of 43.275, and is currently holding just below it, ticking up to 43.225 as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/30/200,  8:12:30 AM
Equities are slightly lower, with ES -.25 at 1100, NQ -1 at 1400.5, YM -4 at 10117 and QQQ flat at 34.78. Gold is down a dime at 387, silver +.079 at 6.429, crude oil +.99% or .425 at 43.175, and ten year bonds at session high, +.046 at 110.016.

We are awaiting the 8:30 release of Q2 GDP, est. 3.7%, Chain deflator, est. 3%; at 9:45AM, we get Michigan Sentiment, est. 96.2, and at 10AM, Chicago PMI, est. 60.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  6:57:00 AM
OEX traders: When making trading plans today, remember to watch for the GDP, to be released at 8:30, and the futures' reactions to the number. Other potentially market-moving numbers come later, with the consumer sentiment at 9:45 and Chicago's PMI at 10:00.

  Linda Piazza   7/30/200,  6:50:58 AM
Good morning. Earnings from Matsushita Electric Company and Nissan Motor Company beat expectations, boosting Japanese markets that had feared disappointments from companies reporting this week. Despite the fact that many of those earnings were still to come after the close, including those of NTT DoCoMo, Toshiba, and Tokyo Electron, the Nikkei gapped above 11,200 and climbed. It closed higher by 208.94 points or 1.88%, at 11,325.78. Matsushita Electric gained 3.6%, and Nissan Motor, 1.1%. Hitachi also beat expectations and was rewarded with an upgrading of its debt rating to stable from negative by Moody's Investors Service. The stock gained 2.4%.

Other stocks reacted to their earnings reports. Tech stocks Fujitsu, Kyocera, and TDK all posted gains after their reports, but KDDI dropped 4.5%. In other news, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group considers asking UFJ Holdings to merge, setting up a potential competition with Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group. A Tokyo court dealt the planned merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo and UFJ Holdings a blow this week when it excluded some assets in an injunction sought by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group. UFJ Holdings benefited from the new move by Sumitomo, climbing more than 10%, while Mitsubishi Tokyo lost more than 4%.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances as stocks reacted to earnings reports, but many major tech stocks climbed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.33%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.65%. Singapore's Straits Times was flat, down 0.02%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.45%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.50%.

Currently, European bourses turn in mixed performances, too, but the three commonly watched on this page trade lower with banks cited as leading them lower. Deutsche Bank's earnings report disappointed, and both Deutsche Bank and French bank Societe Generale reported lower trading volumes in Q2. Deutsche Bank mentioned challenging conditions in the trading of convertible bonds. The results from the two banks sent banks lower across Europe, although Spain's Banco Santander Central Hispano was gaining in early trading.

In France, June's unemployment rose 9.9% from the previous month's 9.8%, showing a slightly worse-than-expected result. July's consumer confidence was -23 against expectations of an improvement to -21.

In stock-specific news, stocks reacted to company earnings, with European steel group Arcelor and German retailer Metro rising, and tire manufacturer Michelin dropping. Alcatel stumbles again, under pressure after JP Morgan repeated its underweight rating and other brokers made negative comments.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had dropped 6.40 points or 0.14%. The CAC 40 had dropped 8.76 points or 0.24%, to 3,635.03. The DAX had fallen 7.70 points or 0.20%, to 3,881.98.

  Jeff Bailey   7/29/200,  12:14:09 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) .... 1,107 looks to be key resistance. Chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement, but multiple 1,107 ties. Link

  Linda Piazza   7/29/200,  9:22:26 PM
Thursday, the OEX produced a small-bodied candle with both upper and lower shadows. The upper shadow pierced the 200-ema, but the candle's body formed beneath that average. If such a candle had been produced at the top of a strong climb, I would have termed it a potential reversal signal. Instead, it was produced after a climb through the zone covered by May's congestion zone, up to the top of that zone. There was a climb, but a modest one, so perhaps the candle was indicative of indecision more than anything else.

For a week or more, I've been suggesting that the OEX could waffle around near the strong weekly Keltner and historical support shown currently from 525.92-531. Until the OEX can sustain values above 541.89 on a weekly basis, its smallest Keltner channel points down toward that weekly support, suggesting a continued vulnerability into that deep zone. The daily Keltner chart shows that support is trying to firm near 526-527, but that resistance from 542.82-544.37 looks stronger. Until those conditions change, then, the OEX remains vulnerable to 526 and perhaps would have difficulty surpassing 543.50-547, perhaps even finding resistance at 539.50-542. That's especially true since many moving averages and historical horizontal S/R also congregate in that 543.50-547 zone, including the 200-sma at 544.20.

Wednesday, however, the role of the 60-minute 100/130-ema's could not be denied. The OEX spent much of the day testing those averages: Link Note the potential bearish divergence on that chart, marked by a higher MACD high but lower (so far) price highs. That divergence can be erased if price continues climbing and reaches a new high before the MACD turns down. For now, however, it exists and warns that this push higher might not have had the strength behind it that the previous one did. It's going to be important to watch the OEX with respect to these averages tomorrow. It should not go without notice, either, that the crude futures dropped through early trading, allowing indices to climb. At about 12:35-12:40, the crude futures climbed through the neckline of a reverse H&S on its five-minute chart and headed up again. At about 12:40, the OEX and SPX started diving to their day's low. While indices bounced off those lows, the inverse relationship of crude futures to the actions of the indices can't be denied, either. Watch those crude futures while you're watching the 60-minute 100/130-ema's.

Keltner evidence kept shifting Thursday afternoon as the OEX zoomed first one direction and then the other, too fast for Keltner lines to converge into resistance or support lines. At yesterday's close, the five-minute Keltner chart showed a slightly higher chance that the OEX would test 538.12-538.97 before it would fall back to 535.70-536.30. That means that at the close, the OEX looked ready to test the 60-minute 100/130-ema's at 537.27 and 538.82 again, but that could change by tomorrow morning. As I type, the futures are modestly higher, not giving much sense yet of tomorrow's direction. The 15-minute chart showed a similar setup: about an equal chance of testing 538.78-539.16 or 535.97-536.09. An upside breakout above the highest of those two zones listed on that 15-minute chart early tomorrow morning, if sustained, would send the Keltner's smallest channel up toward 542.35. A downside breakout would send it toward 534.64, and then 533 if the higher support failed to hold. A failure to hold 533 in early trading suggests a tumble toward 527. These channel lines are dynamic, and so will change as the day progresses.

  OI Technical Staff   7/29/200,  8:10:14 PM
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