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  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  6:14:56 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  5:11:00 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  4:29:58 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -

Cinch your stops down to 1101.50 and break even for tomorrow morning. I'll update stops if necessary after the market opens.

Have a great evening everybody, and pray they don't find Osama. I hear they're hot on his trail. Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  4:14:09 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Closed out the JP Morgan (JPM) short at target of $36.70 ($+0.55, or +1.48%)

Closed out the JDS Uniphase (JDSU) short at $3.30 ($+0.14, or +4.07%)

Bullish day trade Microsoft (MSFT) at $28.08, closed out $28.04 ($-0.04, or -0.14%).

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  4:10:28 PM
Nope... that is somebody else's cute kid.

  Jane Fox   8/4/2004,  4:09:36 PM
Mark is that a pic of your younger years.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  4:05:18 PM
I was very tempted to enter a long play just before the close, bracketing the range and holding both puts and calls overnight, but I resisted. I hope they don't find Osama tonight, but I'm feelin' "bad to the bone" Link

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:55:54 PM
The OEX is trying to steady at Keltner support from 538.07-538.35 on the five-minute chart. Analogous support is at 537.52-538.00 on the 15-minute chart. This is the support that I thought might prop up the OEX into the close.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  3:53:42 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert for Microsoft MSFT $28.04 here.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  3:52:32 PM
The oversold bounce in APOL has failed at the $80.00 level and simple 200-dma. Now shares are breaking under the $75 level. This could be an aggressive entry point for bearish plays.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:49:48 PM
The BIX is back below 350 again. As I scan charts of the indices, I notice many high-wave candles, such as that produced by the BIX (so far). They're indicative of indecision. Duh!

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  3:49:35 PM
The 30 min cycle for QQQ remains up, and the positive prints have been sufficient so far to prevent the sell signal that was threatening on the daily cycle oscillators. The short cycle downphase has so far been respecting a higher low, but the short cycle bias remains down at least until it reaches oversold territory. The 30 min channel has support at 34.18, and the 60 at 34.05. A higher short cycle bottom would confirm the 30 min cycle upphase and should strength the daily cycle as well, but 34.48 resistance will need to get broken for the scenario to look truly bullish. So far, that hasn't occurred today.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  3:45:10 PM
MSFT day trade exit setup alert .... looking to close out MSFT by the close. Look to sell a trade at $28.13.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:39:01 PM
Unfortunately, I'm not as sure about the washout this afternoon. Based on that possible H&S, I'm afraid that the OEX might just consolidate near this level or dip only a little further into the close, still in the process of forming that right shoulder. Of course, I was thinking that the OEX might not zoom past Keltner resistance earlier today, based on another, smaller potential H&S. Possible Keltner close support exists from 538 down to 537.50.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  3:38:35 PM
Not exactly Jane... shoulda waited for SPX 1102.45, but "da boyz", as Jonathan likes to say, really know how to shake that tree. Oh, to be a "fly on the wall", but at least we're GREEN again (my favorite color).

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  3:37:34 PM
Homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) is pushing through resistance at $40.00 and its simple 40, 50 and 200-dma.

  Jim Brown   8/4/2004,  3:34:26 PM
We have all seen it many times. A sharp rally on the back of buy programs followed by a washout at the close to give everything back. Not saying it will happen today but the setup is classic.

  Jane Fox   8/4/2004,  3:33:14 PM
Looks like you nailed this one Mark.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  3:32:39 PM
Keep talking like that Jim... I like it! Link

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:30:33 PM
If maintained, the current OEX level is low enough to turn the smallest Keltner channel on the five-minute chart lower again, toward 538.04 mid-channel support.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:26:37 PM
Yes, it is, Jane. (See Jane's 15:25 post.) The only trouble is that, to confuse the issue, the inverse one that preceded it was just as nice looking, with the possible exception of no bullish divergence as the head was formed.

  Jane Fox   8/4/2004,  3:25:05 PM
Linda that is one very nice looking H&S forming on the 60-minute OEX chart. (15:09 post)

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  3:24:26 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -

Cinch your stops down to break even... SPX 1101.52

I don't want put any more capital at risk today and this trade is far from a sure thing with SPX 1100 (resistance turned support?) just below.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:24:13 PM
James or Jim may have mentioned this already, but we have same-store sales tonight and tomorrow. You might treat this information almost as you would an earnings announcement, exercising care about being in a play on a retailer ahead of these announcements. Perhaps some of the response is already baked into these stocks since we've been getting information about back-to-school sales and consumer spending.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  3:21:35 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link (corrected hourly price changes)

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  3:21:32 PM
The current QQQ bounce is a wavelet upphase. A lower high on this bounce below the session high will kick off a short cycle downphase from overbought territory, while a higher high will obviously continue the trending short cycle move within the 30 min cycle upphase.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:21:10 PM
The Nasdaq avoided a new P&F sell signal today, staying above the 1830 print needed to create that new sell signal.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:18:41 PM
Thanks, Jonathan, for the Nymex chart, both for my benefit and that of readers. A reader once commented that a live chart could be found on the Nymex site, but I haven't been able to find it.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  3:16:55 PM
Crude oil to a new session low at 42.725 in afternoon trading.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  3:10:54 PM
The DJUSHB home construction index is inching closer to a breakout over its simple 200-dma.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  3:09:26 PM
Here's the potential H&S on the OEX's 60-minute chart, with perhaps several more trading hours required to finish forming the right shoulder, even if the formation is to be completed and then confirmed: Link It is interesting (to me) to note that this potentially bearish formation is setting up just after the OEX broke through a nicely formed inverse H&S on the same chart. Obviously the bulls and the bears haven't yet figured out which side is going to win this battle. Until they do, be cautious about any assumptions. A break above the early August high negates the potential H&S, setting up the possibility that the 546-ish upside target of the inverse H&S will actually be met. A confirmation of the H&S instead sets a new downside target.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  3:08:58 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -

I can't take it.

Go short now... SPTTT (SPX Aug 1100 put) @ 11.70, stop @ new HOD

Benchmarking entry point... SPX = 1101.52

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  3:07:29 PM
100-tick 2-day QQQ update at this Link . 30 min resistance is up to 34.53, support 34.14.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  3:04:05 PM
03:01 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  2:56:35 PM
The short cycles are just reaching maxxed out overbought territory here within the steep 30 min cycle upphase. The pattern for the past 2 weeks has been mostly for trending short cycle moves. We'll see if the bulls get their wish here.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  2:55:14 PM
XEC could be producing a reversal here with today's bearish engulfing candlestick.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  2:52:51 PM
I'm having to sit on my hands to keep from shorting this @ SPX 1102.45

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  2:52:38 PM
Just now noticing the relative strength in small-cap index component East West Bancorp (EWBC). Check out the weekly chart.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:52:21 PM
Even though I didn't entirely trust their evidence (due to that possible H&S on many 60-minute charts and the then-approaching 60-minute 100/130-ema's on the OEX's), the Keltner charts pulled through again. They showed where resistance should hold the OEX (didn't) and where a breakout would occur (did), and what the likely minimum upside target would be if a breakout did occur. That upside target has almost been met on the 15-minute chart and is approaching, at 540.89, on the five-minute one. Now the five-minute chart shows support trying to converge near 539. Bulls want to see that support hold on any pullbacks. If the OEX climbs much higher, we're going to have to negate consideration of that possible H&S on the 60-minute chart.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  2:49:50 PM
First Bancorp (FBP) appears to be breaking the neckline of an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern that points to a $49-$50 price target. FBP is currently up 3% to $42.92.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:49:47 PM
Bond market closes in 10 minutes ... at 03:00 PM EDT, General Winfield Scott and General Irvin McDowell set to meet on last hour's battle plans.

Troops amassing at the NYSE with breadth now positive at 16:15. NASDAQ a/d still weaker at 14:16.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  2:48:13 PM
Here, Linda: Link . 10-tick 2-day NYMEX crude chart.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  2:47:28 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -

Stopped out @ 1101.50, -11.5%

I have a sinking feeling we were stopped out just before a rollover but the risk/reward is not worth sticking with it any higher.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:47:01 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.14 +0.24% ....

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:46:36 PM
QQQ $34.45 +0.61% .... session highs and DAILY Pivot.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:46:26 PM
I meant to remind readers to follow Jonathan's comments about the crude futures as the movements of those futures appear to be driving markets first one direction, then the other. I'm 30-minutes delayed, so my posts would be after-the-fact ones.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:45:42 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) $32.28 +1.32% ... DAILY Pivot here. This was my "alternative" bullish day trade, but I took MSFT instead.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  2:45:14 PM
The market feels like it's stuck in molasses. A steep 30 min cycle upphase is in progress now, but once again that 34.38-.48 confluence zone has yet to crack. The shape of the 30 min upphase suggests that it will, but I'll believe when I see it. If it does, next resistance is at 34.60, followed by 34.84.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:44:42 PM
The BIX is testing 350 again, at 349.78 as I type.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  2:43:54 PM
There is some pretty good MACD bearish divergence as we try to crack the SPX 1100 level. That doesn't mean SPX can't continue higher, but at least there are the first signs of weakening.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:42:05 PM
It is a duck and it's flying. At least a little distance. The OEX breakout is real, with a 540.83 upside target hinted at on the five-minute chart, and a 540.39 upside target hinted at on the 15-minute one. A move too much above 540 is going to negate the possibility of a H&S on the 60-minute chart. Bears want to see the OEX back below 538.67, maintaining levels below that number.

It's useful to watch these formations even if you don't use them to set targets and even if they fail to confirm. Their failures tell us about underlying market psychology just as well as their successful confirmations do, so we should be watching for either a rollover or steadying near the current levels or for a zoom above the appropriate right-shoulder level.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  2:39:25 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -

Aggressive traders... raise your stops to 1101.50 I think this one is worth the risk. I tried to post this a minute ago but for some reason it didn't register (probably my fault). Pardon my mistakes as I get up to speed.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:37:48 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.08 +0.1% .... intra-day chart with upper 5-MRT and Daily Pivot levels at this Link

To get a shot at $28.44, I'm thinking MSFT need to be at $28.27 by 03:00 PM EDt.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  2:34:12 PM
QQQ 30 and 60 min resistance moving together here to 34.45.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  2:33:32 PM
Remember that we're closing the MGA put play before the close to avoid holding over its earnings report tomorrow morning.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:30:43 PM
The TRAN is back above 3100 and the 30-dma again.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:28:12 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.10 +0.10% .... going nowhere fast. It's DAILY Pivot is $28.17.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:27:17 PM
DAILY Pivots all major indices look to be right back at their daily pivots.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  2:26:30 PM
Crude breaking below 43 here.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:26:03 PM
Based on the potential H&S on the OEX 60-minute chart, I'm still thinking that it's possible the OEX could consolidate near the current level across several hours. Hope not, but it might be possible. Based on that potential H&S, I wouldn't view such consolidation as necessarily bullish, although I may be all wrong in my analysis. We saw one smaller potential H&S rejected with a resultant strong gain, and it could happen again.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:21:33 PM
Index gainers ... Biotech +1.03% and Disk Drives +1.23%

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  2:20:07 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -

We now have a confirmed sell signal with a MACD bearish cross, but not much downside traction so far... fingers crossed.

The part that worries me (besides TRIN) is that the SOX just made a new HOD, and the SOX-dicator has been a powerful indicator for some time now.

Aggressive traders... raise your stops to 1101.00... I think this is worth the risk.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:18:46 PM
The OEX is still quacking like a duck and waddling like a duck, suspending itself above the last Keltner lines ahead of the 540-541 level, looking ready to launch itself higher. I'm still having trouble believing in this duck's flying abilities, however, still seeing the possibility of a H&S on the 15- through 60-minute intraday charts. This would require the OEX to find resistance near its current level.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:18:28 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:15:28 PM
Earlier, Mark and I exchanged posts about the usual stop-running push. I noted in my 13:30 post that the OEX had broken through a best-fit version of an ascending trendline, but was immediately bouncing back up. I noted that bears better hope that wasn't the real stop-running push because an immediate bounce after a dip was not what the bears wanted to see. That showed the big girls and boys that any dips would be bought. Then we saw this push upward and Keltner channel breakouts. Now it's up to bears to show the big girls and boys that any bounces will be sold, or stops will be hit and shorts will start covering and gains will build.

Such precipitous climbs are supposedly common when a potential H&S is negated. Shorts who had piled on in hopes of a confirmation cover their positions.

For now, however, it should be noted that the OEX is just now hitting the former supporting trendline from the regression channel that held the OEX from 7/26 until yesterday, so is retesting that former support. While it's difficult for me to believe that the OEX will climb much higher, as in past 541-542, I also believed earlier that it wouldn't get much above 538-539, and see now that it's possible that the OEX can exceed that. I was always cautious about predicting too much downside, either. While it looked at one point as if the OEX might head down toward 531, the OEX soon pulled itself up again and reversed that outlook, and it's not until weekly Keltner support is violated that we'll know whether it's going to be violated. Until then, the OEX could still be chopping around above that support.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  2:12:55 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -

I'm not liking the looks of this (TRIN is now neutral @ 1.05) We could still get one more poke higher before reversing and I want to give the trade some room. We're risking about a 10% hit with the stop @ 1100.20 but I'm hoping for an electric fence at SPX 1100 to slap it back.

Aggressive traders may want to raise their stops to 1100.50 to allow room for "throwover"... much above that and shorts will begin covering.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:10:24 PM
$TRIN emploding, while the TICK surges. One of the few "bullish" things I saw today was the $TRIN jumping so high at the open.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  2:09:30 PM
Session highs across the board here. The upside Keltner touch at 34.40 would be a sell trigger except that the 30 and 60 min cycles are at what should be bottoms and are looking for upphases.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:05:29 PM
02:03 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  2:04:09 PM
The OEX is certainly making a strong try for a breakout on the 5-minute nested Keltner chart, too. If successful, the upside target on that chart is 540.65, so near the next target on the 15-minute chart. It's quacking like a duck and waddling like a duck, but I just can't get myself to believe that duck can fly too far.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  2:02:07 PM
Raytheon (RTN) $34.27 +1.78% ... decent little move back above its 50-day SMA ($33.93) and my fitted 61.8% retracement of $34.24 where I had a near-term upside al_rt set. Thinking about a long, stop under $33.25 and a target higher at $37.31.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  2:01:55 PM
Session high for Dow futures here.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:55:31 PM
Nymex crude to a new low at 43.15, -2.27%.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  1:54:34 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -

Go short now... SPQTR (SPX Aug 1090 put) @ $9.50, stop SPX 1100.20

Benchmarking entry point... SPX = 1098.19

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  1:54:16 PM
The OEX is breaking out above the mid-channel level on the 15-minute chart. Unless it's quickly slapped back, it's setting up a possible upside target of 540.22. Note, however, that this punch higher has brought the OEX back up to test the 60-minute 100/130-ema's. Remember those? We can't seem to stop talking about them. They are at 537.55 and 538.38, respectively, and I wouldn't discount their possible resistance. In addition, the 60-minute chart shows the possibility that the OEX could be forming a H&S with the head at the 8/02 high and the shoulders at or near these averages. I meant to mention that last night when I was reading Jim's futures wrap, I noticed when reviewing his 60-minute ES chart that the formation there could be the beginning of a H&S, but had forgotten to mention that by this morning. If the OEX is going to form a H&S, it would be natural that it could linger near those 60-minute averages through another few hours, forming that right shoulder. I dread that possibility, but it remains a possibility.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:50:43 PM
Trying again for the 34.38-34.48 confluence on QQQ. The 30 min cycle channel is at last turning up now, 60 min no longer decling, flat with both channel tops at 34.40 currently.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  1:45:08 PM
The OEX punched up. This is why I said that I'm never good at guessing which direction the stop-running push will come. This push has driven the OEX right into that gathering Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, with the OEX threatening to break through that resistance, but not having done it yet.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  1:45:03 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -

Short signal developing right where I was hoping... stand by, I'm still not sure if this is for real

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  1:44:29 PM
Jon, the news about BBY did say the would open at least three FutureShops in Canada.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  1:43:35 PM
Investors' negative reaction to news coming from Britain's BSkyB satellite broadcaster is hitting shares of News Corp (NWS). NWS is the largest minority stakeholder in BSkyB, which is down 19% and dragging NWS down 5% with it.

BSkyB said it plans to boost marketing expenses by $821 million even as operating margins are expected to shrink in 2006. (-CBSMW)

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:41:53 PM
Here's the old story on BBY and FutureShop: Link . I was hoping I'd be wrong about the prior ownership by BBY, as a little competition would go a long way in the Canadian consumer electronics market.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  1:41:41 PM
In hindsight (always 20/20) it's easy to see how we could have played the chop today. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:40:51 PM
James, I believe that BBY owns the very popular "FutureShop" chain in Canada. I wonder which brand they'll choose for the new stores.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  1:38:50 PM
Consumer electronics retailer Best Buy Co (BBY) has signed leases for 38 new stores to open by the end of its fiscal year.

Store openings will take place in 22 states and Canada.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:37:52 PM
Crude is at a session low of 43.30 now, falling quickly from the break of 43.50, currently down 1.93%. All things being equal, lower oil would be a bullish factor for equities.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  1:35:49 PM
OI call play (candidate) Ingersoll-Rand (IR) has announced a 31.6% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $25 cents a share. The cash dividend is payable on September 1st, 2004 to shareholders on record as of August 17th. The company has also announced a stock buyback program of up to 10 million shares. IR currently has about 173 million shares outstanding.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:33:13 PM
Crude oil breaks to a new low at 43.47 here.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  1:31:34 PM
Buy signal developing on SPX, but I'm very suspicious as to it's validity. I'd much prefer a sell signal. Some energy has been stored by all this sideways action so we could certainly see a move to the upside (stop-running push?) that gives us a good short entry... waiting patiently

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:30:50 PM
Nymex crude continues lower, down to 43.55 here and coming in for a retest of the session low at 43.525. Double bottom support is at 43.50.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  1:30:46 PM
If the triangle formation I've been watching was valid, we've now seen a downside break of the best-fit version of the supporting trendline. This would also be a break of the best-fit neckline for the H&S, too, although it's certainly possible to draw different trendlines for each. Mark, perhaps we're getting the beginning impulse of the push? Sure isn't going far, if that's what it is, and it's getting reversed already, but it's actually a little earlier than the usual 1:35-1:55 when I watch for such a push. Bears don't want to see a quick reversal of any downward push, so better hope this isn't the real thing if you're in a bearish position.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  1:29:36 PM
Readers probably remember the successful put play in Kohl's (KSS) in mid-June. We had played a failed rally at the simple 200-dma resistance, which was also near its long-term descending trendline of lower highs. Now shares of KSS are near the simple 200-dma again and they're starting to fade. (The disappointing personal spending numbers certainly don't help the retail sector.) This looks like a similar setup to open bearish positions with a target in the $41-42 range. However, this time traders have to deal with the upcoming August 12th earnings report.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:25:08 PM
Perfect timing- here's a move lower.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:24:22 PM
QQQ appears to have found equilibrium. I hasn't budged even 1 cent in the past five minutes. I don't think I've blinked.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  1:24:04 PM
Hmmm... Netflix (NFLX) is down 8.5% and breaking down from its recent trading range near the $20 level for no apparent reason. The P&F chart is extremely negative essentially pointing to $0.00.

There was one article by CBSMW suggesting NFLX may have to lower prices to compete with BlockBuster's (BBI) new DVD rental service.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  1:20:08 PM
I've added a chart to my 13:15 post mentioning Keltner resistance. I'll delete this post as soon as everyone has had an opportunity to see it.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  1:20:01 PM
Linda... Well, I guessed right, but I agree with you in that it could go either way. It's dangerous out there today swimming with those sharks...


  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  1:19:46 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  1:17:55 PM
Oil stock Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) is down 9.8% to $25.31 after reporting earnings this morning. The company earned $3.11 per share versus a loss of 11 cents a year ago. The report was 56 cents better than estimates. Revenues soared 49% to $3.15 billion. The stock appears to be falling in a "sell the news" reaction. Unfortunately, the drop has broken long-term technical support at the simple 50-dma. The question now is whether or not round-number support at the $25 level will hold.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  1:15:48 PM
As an addendum to my reply to Mark's question, I wanted to note that on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, resistance is now looking much firmer than support. Link That suggests that it will now be easier for the OEX to decline than to rise, although a rise first into that resistance isn't precluded. Heck, nothing is precluded, but you know what I mean.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  1:13:50 PM
Mark, I'm sorry, but the MM wasn't updating and I didn't realize it for a few minutes, so didn't see your post. It's the fault of my ISP or my router--every time I get a personal email, it stops my MM.

You are putting me on the spot, because I'm never good at figuring out which way the push will come. It depends, in my opinion, on whether the big boys and girls want to see if support or resistance is going to hold. In this climate, I'd have to guess a push to the downside, then, but it's certainly only a guess. A push to the upside would face resistance near 537-537.50 on the 15-minute Keltner charts, and I could see a push that direction, too, to see if the move can be sustained.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  1:13:22 PM
The 30 min channel is flattening again, with 30 and 60 min support lining up now at 33.96, resistance from 34.35 (30 min channel) to 34.41 (60 min channel). Volume is still very light, with little action on the 100-tick QQQ chart.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  1:08:18 PM
Bullish day trade alert .... for Microsoft (MSFT) $28.08 here, stop $27.97, target $28.44.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  1:06:02 PM
Altria Group (MO) $47.29 -0.48% ....

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  1:05:19 PM
Utility Index (UTY.X) 322.27 +0.01% .... intra-day has seen steady comeback.

This action, combined with PHF trading back up to 200-day SMA might hint of a hunger for yield.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  1:00:03 PM
Linda... I'm going to put you on the spot (just a little). IF there is a stop-running push today, what is your best guess as to which direction? UP or DOWN? I think I know your answer already but I want to test my predictive abilities against the person who first recognized this phenomenon... Hey, you're famous! (at least in my book).

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  12:58:45 PM
200-day SMA alert ... Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.15 +1.32%

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  12:58:01 PM
The SPX eases just below 200-ema again.

  Jane Fox   8/4/2004,  12:48:59 PM
Dateline CNN Attorney says it's 'up in the air' whether Kobe Bryant accuser will continue to pursue case.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  12:46:18 PM
Crude is lower at 43.87 here. The supply data saw a quick drop to what's now double bottom support at 43.52. The current decline is more gradual. A break of yesterday's 43.50 low would be a key outside downside reversal for NYMEX crude and would portend weakness tomorrow. Today's high was a new record at 44.475.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  12:43:16 PM
Ciena (CIEN) $2.13 -23.18% .... was thinking last night, that if I were short/put (and I'm not), I would most likely be a more eager cover today. For months there has been talk that CIEN might be an acquisition target as company still has great products, but is starting to burn down cash reserves, which may force the company to be a more eager seller to a buyer.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  12:43:00 PM
Bonds still rising, with ZN futures up to 111.2969 at a session high and TNX down 3 bps at 4.392%.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  12:37:41 PM
Ouch! Brinks Co (BCO) is down 16%, breaking through the bottom of its rising channel, and falling to its simple 200-dma after reporting earnings. The company revealed that it is investigating $3 million worth of unpaid taxes and that they could be subject to civil and criminal penalties. Once the investigation is complete it may have to revise its financials.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  12:36:03 PM
Linda, I'm always suspicious when something looks "too perfect", as the TRIN does today for a short play. Everybody else with even remedial TA skills sees the same thing... I hate consensus, not that there is much today, other than the TRIN looks bearish.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  12:35:59 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Positions closed today underlying short in JPM stock (see 09:45:57), and underlying short in JDSU stock (see 11:58:51).

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  12:35:00 PM
Other than a bullish divergence on the short cycle TRIX, the 2-day QQQ chart is giving us little to go on: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  12:33:58 PM
Back just in time to see the wavelet cycle oscillator topping. The short cycles have turned up again for another attempt at an upphase. The 30 min oscillators continue to take their time making the turn, however, and the channels still point south with 30 min resistance at 34.35 currently. As long as the price doesn't drop back to the 34 level here, the 30 min channel should begin to turn up.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  12:32:09 PM
Here's part of what I'm looking at today... note that using CCI prints only, we've had more oversold than overbought readings so far today, which is obviously counter to other indicators, not to mention the final arbiter... PRICE


  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  12:24:05 PM
If Keene were here, he'd be reporting that some markets were forming up into a symmetrical triangle at the bottom of the decline. The OEX's possible continuation-form H&S is resolving into a triangle form, as often happens. As also often happens, it looks as if the breakout/breakdown point may come during a period when we often see false breakouts one direction or the other. The suspicion is that we'll see a breakdown out of that triangle, especially with 15-minute Keltner lines also converging toward 537.30, but we sometimes get surprised, don't we?

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  12:21:33 PM
The SOX has turned back up but TRIN remains firmly in bear country. I'm looking at a developing sell signal but will resist initiating a trade during the lunchtime lull. I'm still hoping for a short entry from the SPX 1097 area... perhaps Linda's stop-running push (if it's to the upside) will provide us with a good entry point.

All things considered this is still chop, but profitable trades can still be gleaned from chop, especially when chop turns into a trending market. My short-term bias remains DOWN until proven otherwise, but patience is the watchword for a good entry point.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  12:20:57 PM
Bank of America evidently feels that the sell-off is overdone in shares of ACDO and has upped the stock to a "buy". ACDO has fallen from $39 at the end of June to $28 as of yesterday.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  12:17:42 PM
A slight change is occurring on the OEX's five-minute chart, with supporting lines beginning to separate and resistance lines converging just overhead. That suggests that it's more likely for the OEX to slip lower than climb higher. However, the OEX needs to continue to find resistance at 536.95. Bears want to see the OEX maintain levels below 535.l65-536.15 or at least 536.56. Bulls want to see the OEX break above 536.15 and maintain levels above that, or at least stay above 536.56.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  12:13:37 PM
Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  12:13:06 PM
The Airlines are naturally weaker with oil prices so high but we might see an oversold bounce soon. Check out the channel on the XAL's weekly chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  12:10:42 PM
I note that, like the SPX, the Dow is also perched just above its 200-ema, with that average at 10079.41. Perhaps today is a good day to watch those 200-ema's?

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  12:10:38 PM
Session high for ten year bonds here- TNX down 3.2 bps to 4.39%, just losing 4.4% support.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  12:07:12 PM
The Dow Jones Transportation Average is back under the 3100 level and appears to be reversing the recent MACD buy signal. Bulls will be watching to see if the simple 50-dma will hold up as support like it did in late July.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  12:04:46 PM
Another Ouch! InterActiveCorp (IACI) has gapped down about 17% to $22.41. The move follows last night's earnings report where IACI beat estimates by a penny but came in under analysts' revenue expectations. Management then guided their full year estimates to the lower end of previous forecasts.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  12:03:25 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  12:03:22 PM
I'm a sucker for a pretty face Jane. It's man thing I guess.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  12:00:43 PM
I wanted to remind readers that the SPX's 200-ema is at 1094.71, with the SPX bouncing just above that MA as I type. Although this average isn't as closely watched as the 200-sma, it does seem to be playing a minor part in the SPX's trading behavior. Bears want to see the SPX roll down below that average again.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  11:59:50 AM
Ouch! CIENA (CIEN) is down 23.5% to $2.11 as investors react to last night's guidance. The company guided earnings inline with its previous guidance but is now saying revenues will be lower (and significantly under Wall Street's estimates). Wall Street has responded with a wave of downgrades to "hold, peer perform, sector under perform, under perform, reduce and sell."

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  11:58:51 AM
Swing trade short cover alert ..... Let's cover the underly short in JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.30 -0.56% here. Buy back the 2,900 shares shorted at $3.44 on 07/29/04.

(+$0.14 * 2,900 = $406.00), so working off some losses, but back to being hedged on the Aug. $3 calls (UQDHG).

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  11:58:02 AM
Turning to the OEX's 15-minute chart, I note that channel lines are coursing down toward the mid-channel level at 537.35, with those lines now ranging up to 537.94. Support still looks firm on that chart at 535.30, but if the OEX pauses long enough, that resistance will look just as strong. If the OEX moves much higher than 537-537.30, however, it will have rejected its possible continuation-form H&S, showing that bulls have the upper hand, at least temporarily.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  11:57:26 AM
Volume remains very slight for QQQ. The current drift up is testing the declining 7200-tick SMA at 34.20. 30 min channel resistance is above at 34.38. The 30 min cycle, which I expect to turn up at any time is certainly in no hurry to do so while the failure to break below 34 suggests that QQQ may try to run higher. However, I won't believe any bounce today if that 34.38-.48 area doesn't get broken.

  Jane Fox   8/4/2004,  11:54:43 AM
But Mark she was so pretty.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  11:54:30 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  11:46:09 AM
I've fired my financial advisor. I've absolutely had it with her "sty in the sky" predictions. Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  11:43:47 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  11:39:43 AM
Volume has dropped off sufficiently here to stall my intraday indicators and channels. The oscillators and channel levels haven't budged in 20 minutes.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  11:39:07 AM
The sell-off in SPX Corp (SPW) is not slowing down. On Monday the stock crashed through support at the $40.00 level after the company reported earnings. SPX missed estimates by 6 cents per share. Bank of America responded with a downgrade to "sell" and Lehman has just cut the stock to an "equal weight". SPW is down another 2.67% with no signs of an oversold bounce. The P&F chart points to a $32 target.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  11:37:37 AM
The OEX's behavior still fits with the premise of a possible continuation-form H&S on the five-minute chart, with the OEX perhaps in the process of forming the top of a right shoulder. Nearby resistance and nearby support look rather well matched on the five-minute nested Keltner chart, with that nearby support from 535.68-535.87 and then at 534.67 on the five-minute chart. The neckline of that formation would be just below that first support.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  11:33:58 AM
Express Scripts (ESRX) is down another 4.77% to $60.80 on rising volume as investors respond to news that NY Attorney General Spitzer plans to file a lawsuit against the company. Spitzer claims that the company has defrauded the state by charging too much for drugs.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  11:32:06 AM

This was one of the rumors circulating around the time of the initial drop below QQQ 34.20.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  11:25:36 AM
MACD bullish kiss on the SPX 1-min chart indicates it may want to go a bit higher. I'm still hoping to get short in the 1097 area but when/if we get there things may look totally different.

  James Brown   8/4/2004,  11:24:11 AM
Joe Kernen was just talking about Coach Inc (COH). The stock has broken down through support at the $40.00 mark and its simple 200-dma. COH did have some support at $39.00, which has also been broken. The sharp drop in the last two days has produced a very bearish P&F chart sell signal with a $31 target.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  11:21:24 AM
Will we see a continuation-form H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart? It's a possibility. Although I don't trust continuation-form H&S's, a left shoulder and head have been formed, with bearish divergence as the head was formed. The current small bounce could be perceived as a bounce up to form a right shoulder. A move much above 537-537.30 would tend to negate the formation, while a drop below 536.55 would confirm it. I would wait for a drop to a new low to consider the formation confirmed. The downside target would be at about 533.40, if it's confirmed.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  11:20:26 AM
QQQ 30 min cycle is oversold Link following yesterday's vertiginous drop. 30 min channel support is down to 33.96 here. The intraday cycles continue to want a bounce from here, and a downside trending move would be very bearish if it were to occur, making this a high risk support level for bulls and bears alike.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  11:07:02 AM
NYMEX Sept crude futures are down .175 to 43.975 here.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  11:06:00 AM



  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  11:04:45 AM
Session highs for silver and euro futures here, with QQQ bouncing from a nominally lower low.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  11:03:00 AM
The BIX remains above the 72-ema I often watch.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  11:02:36 AM
The SPX has dropped below its 200-ema, an average that has played at least a minor part in S/R since May.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  11:01:01 AM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,093.80

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  11:00:16 AM
10:57 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:58:44 AM
In case my comments are being interpreted as committedly bearish, I want to remind readers that in my 22:48 post about the OEX, I urged caution for those in bearish positions, too. I thought there might be some downside early, but since the OEX is still chopping around above weekly historical and Keltner support, I wasn't sure how much downside there might be, either. I thought down was the likely first direction, and didn't feel comfortable suggesting long positions on any bounce since it seemed likely that 538-539 would cap any gains. I had originally thought that new bearish positions on a rollover from that 538-539 level might be possible, with 531 a possibility but with several support levels intervening. However, the TRIN's 2.5+ value worried me a little, as its level was rather high according to recent standards. From a contrarian view that might not be good for bearish positions. The OEX has been testing the bottom of its ascending regression channel and appears to be turning down below that resistance, so that's good for those in bearish positions or considering them. The OEX's pattern on the five-minute chart looks like a bear flag and a breakdown out of that flag could perhaps be considered a decent bearish entry for those who want proof, but the OEX's bounce has allowed Keltner support to build near 535.40-536. Therefore, I continue to urge caution for those in or considering bearish OEX positions, too. This could be the beginning of a directional move or just more chop. It may be time to begin wading in on breakdowns or breakouts, but only for those prepared to be whipsawed.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:54:51 AM
A wavelet downphase is testing the short cycle upphase here, 30 min channel support is at the low of the day at 34.05. Note that Interactive Brokers is reporting the low at 32.19, so I'm eyeballing my chart for the actual low.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  10:52:21 AM
Stepping away for a few minutes...

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  10:51:37 AM
Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $78.69 +0.01% ... slips back under bar chart's "zone of support" that was "zone of resistance" at yesterday's close.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:47:07 AM
The bottom of the rising regression channel (bear flag?) in which the OEX had traded since 7/26, until yesterday's violation, is at just above 538. If the OEX turns down from that level or below, this has just been a retest of that broken supporting trendline, to see if it now holds as resistance. The OEX currently challenges the mid-channel level of the 15-minute Keltner channels, finding temporary resistance there, at least. It's also challenging the bottom of yesterday's late-day consolidation pattern. Above that, Keltner resistance can be found at 538.30-538.60.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:46:54 AM
30 min Keltner resistance is up to 34.45 here, 60 min resistance down to 34.50. As yesterday, the 34.38-34.48 zone is key confluence.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:46:12 AM
Session high for MSFT . Bonds are recovering off their lows, with TNX currently up 0.7 bps at 4.429%.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  10:42:14 AM
There was a brief buy signal earlier at SPX 1094, but with the TRIN printing 2.09, the SOX rolling over and the signal occurring during amateur hour (when contract prices are inflated) it was hard to take seriously. Yesterday afternoon there were 2 fairly strong buy signals that turned out to be false alarms.

I'd love to see the index get back up to just above the last swing high (1097 area) and flash a sell signal... we're getting close. Trading in the chop is dangerous, but using short-term timeframe charts can be very accurate at identifying inflection points and works best in the chop. You only have to be correct about 1 out of 3 trades to make a profit.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:38:05 AM
As suspected, once the OEX broke above the resistance depicted in the chart linked to my 10:16 post, the OEX was able to zoom past several resistance lines since they were widely separated. This buy program may have come in response to Energy Department figures showing gas and distillate stocks up, although crude stocks were lower. Some interpret that information as showing that the stocks have just been moved further down the fuel food chain, with refining cranking up to meet higher summer gasoline needs. The market may interpret the data differently after it's had time to digest the information and after the usually different industry figures are released.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:34:54 AM
GE's at a session of 32.80 here and NQ continues to lead to the upside. There's a higher low setting up here on the last wavelet downphase for QQQ a few minutes ago, which looks good for the young, struggling short cycle upphase currently in progress. Bulls have enough to hang their hopes on here for QQQ, but until the 34.38-.44 level gets at least tested, this will continue to look like a very weak bounce this morning. The 30 min channel is turning up here, which is a good sign, but that .44 break, and preferably .47 (yesterday's key support) is the key test for me here.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  10:34:26 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,096.57

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  10:31:35 AM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,094.73

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:25:24 AM
The OEX is again challenging the Keltner resistance I depicted in the chart linked to my 10:16 post. If it breaks through that resistance, as it appears to be doing as I type, and is not quickly slapped back, resistance lines are so thinly spaced above it that it could perhaps move through several. Key nearby levels are 537 and 538.44, with the top of those being the mid-channel level. The OEX is pulling back slightly already from its test of those channel lines, but isn't yet below them and may not move back below them.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:21:55 AM
Yesterday I was surprised that the TRAN opened higher with crude costs rising. What's the TRAN doing today? It's dropping, back below the 30-dma and 3100, reaching a low not seen in four trading days. It turned down exactly from the descending trendline off the early July higher.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:21:16 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:18:35 AM
100-tick QQQ update at this Link . 30 min channel resistance is down to 34.40, and the short cycle bounce, so far quite weak, has failed to turn the 30 min downphase up.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:16:23 AM
Here's a snapshot of the OEX's five-minute chart with the nested Keltner channels I watch: Link Note how the combined red and black lines are turning the OEX lower? Note, however, that if the OEX could break above those lines and sustain levels above them, the other channel lines are more widely separated? For now, the OEX is behaving just as bears would wish to see it behave, but now they need to see a breakout below the bottom blue and mauve channels to see the biggest bearish gains. They don't want to see the OEX find support at those channel lines instead, or, if it does, they want to see the OEX continue to turn lower at the combined red and black channel lines on each bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  10:13:10 AM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,094.08.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:07:56 AM
That strong initial bounce after the 10:00 numbers brought the OEX back into the channels that it had violated earlier on the 15-minute chart. OEX bears want to see the OEX find resistance and turn lower at 537.40 or lower, other than brief violations of that number. Bulls want to see the OEX maintain values above 538.50, where other channel lines are trying to converge.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  10:04:50 AM
Strong initial bounce on the economic numbers, with that bounce retracing more than 50% of the first tall red candle on the five-minute chart, something bears would rather not happen. So far, however, the OEX is pausing at first Keltner resistance on that five-minute chart, near 536.50.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  10:04:43 AM
10:02 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  10:00:54 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:00:52 AM





  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  10:00:19 AM
A 4B overnight repo from the Fed drains 2B net, the second consecutive day of repo drains.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  9:55:17 AM
The OEX's 15-, 30-, and 60-minute 100/130-ema's are clumped together more than usual, with all between 536.90-538.47 and most in the 537 range. They could form a strong barrier to the OEX on a bounce.

With markets pressured so strongly, I agree with Jonathan's caution not to forget the 10:00 economic numbers.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  9:54:21 AM
Session low for 10-yr bonds at 110.9375, with TNX up 1.8 bps at 4.44%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  9:53:06 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,093.82

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  9:52:29 AM
Gold remains weak, down 3.40 at 392 support, with HUI -1.37% at 184.15 and XAU -1.35% at 86.27.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  9:50:54 AM
The BIX drops toward its 72-ema this morning. Link This average that I watch on several charts has seemed to be important lately, with touches of that average producing bounces over the last month. Will it today if touched?

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  9:48:53 AM
Don't forget the 10AM factory orders and ISM data due. As well, there's the Fed's announcement regarding the disposition of yesterday's 6B overnight repo expiring today.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  9:45:57 AM
Bearish swing trade target close out alert for JP Morgan (JPM) $36.70

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  9:45:33 AM
The Naz futures are down less than either the Dow or the SPX futures today, which is the reverse of yesterday's downside leadership for the Naz.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  9:45:29 AM
According to the OEX's 15-minute chart, there's now a risk of a fall toward 531. Again, that depends on what happens during the first retracement of the day, a retracement that should begin in a few minutes. Keltner resistance is trying to converge from 535.99-536.26, but I don't know if it's yet strong enough to hold back OEX advances. The OEX's action has shown the mid-channel level to be important on that time interval lately, with that mid-channel level at 537.52. It may be possible for the OEX to bounce up to that level, although I'm not certain yet. Once the OEX has tested a channel line and exceeded it somewhat, the oversold pressure can sling it back further than anticipated if it bounces quickly, before resistance can converge. The OEX has already exceeded the downside objective of yesterday's H&S formation on the 15-minute chart. The five-minute chart shows resistance trying to gather near 537.

Those hoping to see 531 want to see the OEX find resistance at 537-537.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  9:42:39 AM
Session high for GE here at 32.72, QQQ back to 34.22, session high of 34.23 at unchanged. A short cycle upphase is trying to start here- I wouldn't get too excited until we've seen at least 34.44 and preferably 34.48 broken to the upside. That 34.48 level, in addition to all the significance from yesterday's trading, is now the location of the 30 min channel resistance line.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  9:36:41 AM
The five-minute Keltner lower support is dropping quickly, along with the OEX, and is now at 535.63. It hasn't been violated and turns down so steeply right now that it would be difficult for the OEX to violate that line. There has been a violation of a channel line on the 15-minute chart, however. If the OEX bounces quickly enough, it can bounce through several 15-minute channel lines before they have an opportunity to converge, but some lines are going to quickly converge near 536 if it doesn't.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  9:34:11 AM
30 min Keltner resistance is down to 34.51 here.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  9:33:18 AM
The OEX gaps lower, to the 537.30-ish Keltner support, and then breaks soundly through that. This sets up a downside target of 535.76, on the five-minute chart, with a break below that signaling a breakout on that chart. Looks as if that target will be met quite quickly. Look for a possible bounce at that level, perhaps during the first retracement of the day. That bounce might be a bounce up to test the 60- and 30-minute 100/130-ema's, with the lowest of those just under 537.

  Mark Davis   8/4/2004,  9:31:53 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -

Exiting our 1/2 position SPX call here @ 6.30, -10%

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  9:29:19 AM
The 30 min oscillators are bottomy here, and on the short cycle charts, QQQ is only beginning to bounce back to the broken lower 30 min Keltner channel at 34.15. The short cycles are oversold, and I agree with Keene that the more likely move from here should be to the upside.

  Jane Fox   8/4/2004,  9:25:30 AM
Dateline WSJ - With oil prices reaching more than $44 a barrel yesterday, concerns are mounting that the biggest player in the petroleum world, OPEC, could remain powerless to help tame prices through next year.

U.S. benchmark crude-oil futures for September delivery rose 33 cents to settle at $44.15 a barrel. That is another new high in the 21-year history of the contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traders don't anticipate much price relief soon. Prices for oil hover at more than $40 a barrel through the June 2005 contract. Still, these headline-grabbing highs, when adjusted for inflation, remain about half the highs that oil prices hit in the early 1980s after the Iranian Revolution.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is keen to head off a recession-inducing price increase even as cartel members enjoy windfall revenue, finds that its ability to sway markets has been neutralized by its unusually thin margin of spare capacity to pump more oil.

That buffer now is estimated at just 1% of total world demand -- much less than the 4% cushion OPEC officials concede the cartel needs to regulate prices. The latest forecasts of oil-consumption growth and of new oil projects coming on stream suggest OPEC members and other exporters are on track to increase the cushion to about 2% next year. It could take two years before producers increase pumping capacity by enough to restore the cartel's power to tame prices.

  Jeff Bailey   8/4/2004,  9:25:08 AM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.06 .... not seeing any pre-market traded after the company reported a second-quarter profit of $16.5 million, or 18 cents per share.

Details at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  8:06:24 AM
The US Dollar Index (30 min delayed refreshable 10-min candle chart at this Link ) is taking another run at the 90 resistance level on overnight strength. The 89.50 level held as support from yesterday.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/4/2004,  8:03:00 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1092.75, NQ 1372.5, YM 10053 and QQQ down .14 to 34.09. Gold is down 2 to 393.4, silver 0.048 to 6.63 and oil up .05 to 44.20, with a session high of 44.475.

We await the 10AM release of June factory orders, est. +.5% and ISM services, est. 61.5.

  Linda Piazza   8/4/2004,  6:48:19 AM
Good morning. By midmorning, the Nikkei had fallen below 11,000 for the first time since late May with rising crude prices being mentioned once again as a pressure on the bourse. Declining consumer spending in the U.S. also impacted the Nikkei, with exporters dropping again. The Nikkei climbed through much of the afternoon session, managing a close barely above 11,000, at 11,010.02, down 130.55 points or 1.17. That was still the lowest close since late May.

Exporters losing ground included Casio Computer and office equipment manufacturer Ricoh, both dropping after reporting earnings Tuesday and mentioning strong demand for their products. Car sales figures in the U.S. showed Toyota and Nissan gaining market share, but several car manufacturers still closed lower. Toyota was one despite the news about market share and also a Tuesday earnings report that had beat expectations. In the UFJ Holdings/Sumitomo Financial/Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial saga, a Tokyo court rejected UFJ's bid to appeal a ruling that will make its planned merger with Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group less likely. UFJ dropped 1.8%.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.94%. South Korea's Hyundai also saw an increase in sales in July. The Kospi gained 0.41%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.42%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.62%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 2.80%.

Currently, most European bourses trade lower. Market commentators mention rising oil prices as a pressure on the U.K. and European markets. Chip stocks declined after UBS made changes in ratings of two. STMicroelectronics, a SOX component, was one, with UBS lowering the company's rating to a reduce rating from the former neutral rating. UBS also lowered Infineon Technologies' rating to a reduce rating. Another pressure on European markets was the reaction to Credit Suisse Group's earnings report, with the stock dropping more than 4% due to worries about investment banking. Commerzbank also reported earnings, warning of difficult conditions for the H2 of 2004, and with that stock dropping almost 2%. Other reporting companies included BMW, dropping almost 2% earlier today; German chemicals group BASF, gaining a modest 0.1% earlier today; and Adidas-Saloman, climbing 2.6% earlier today after earnings. Adidas-Saloman raised earnings and sales guidance for 2004 due to sales in North America.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had lost 48.50 points or 1.09%, to trade at 4,381.20. The CAC 40 had lost 53.70 points or 1.47%, to trade at 3,597.10. The DAX had lost 66.31 points or 1.71%, to trade at 3,811.01.

  Linda Piazza   8/3/2004,  10:48:21 PM
Tuesday, the OEX turned down from the 541.50 resistance approached on Monday, and fell back to close on its 200-ema. From 7/28-8/02, it had tested the resistance of its 60-minute 100/130-ema's, finally climbing above them Monday only to fall back to those averages Tuesday afternoon. The OEX ended the day at the 60-minute 100-ema. The OEX also ended the day only cents above Friday's close, erasing most of Monday's gains.

Was any damage done or was this just more chop above the weekly historical and Keltner support? Maybe and maybe. The OEX's and SPX's charts both show a possible tweezer-top formation, a potential reversal signal. That reversal signal is perhaps more significant on both when it's considered that on the SPX, it occurred beneath the much-watched 200-sma. Reversal signals require confirmation, but this reversal signal should worry short-term index bulls. The Russell 2000 turned down from its 200-ema, an average that it had been testing for three days, and this index as well as the SOX and Nasdaq led the way downhill.

But is this just more chop above that weekly support? That support lies from 526.60-531, and now consists of only two lines rather than the three that had converged two weeks ago, with the third line now at 536.68. If the separation of the lines continues, that may allow the OEX to slip through them one by one. Meanwhile, daily support lines have separated, too, while resistance continues to converge overhead, from 542.26-544.49. That's the Keltner view. Of course, traditional technical analysis looks a historical "sticking points," horizontal lines where support or resistance have been found in the past. Those are not dynamic and will not have changed, and they may lend enough support to the Keltner lines to hold the OEX once again if it should approach 526-530.

The OEX continues to find resistance where resistance would be expected on these charts. Support lines begin to separate while resistance lines continue to converge on the daily chart. The OEX has passed through a similar configuration in May, but without the important 200-sma and other averages converging within that zone, too. I continue to believe that the OEX will have difficulty getting much above 544, but does that mean that I believe it's going to tank? Not unless you consider tanking to be pulling back again to retest support. Right now, I see a vulnerability to that pullback, especially since MACD turns down on the 30- and 60-minute charts. I don't see proof yet that the OEX will do anything other than that, although it could, of course, but the OEX could even produce a sideways consolidation between those 30- and 60-minute 100/130-ema's again. I don't yet see proof that the OEX will retreat much below recent lows, although that possibility exists, too.

A violation of the OEX's 60-minute 100-ema at 537.63 and then a subsequent violation of the mid-channel level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with that level at 537.54, would also violate the supporting trendline of the rising regression channel in which the OEX has traded since 7/26. This might suggest that the channel was a bear-flag rise off support although the channel had been a little too wide in comparison to the previous trading pattern for my liking, if it's going to be considered a bear flag. Support is rather widely scattered on that 15-minute Keltner chart, but exists at 537.12 and 536.30. The 30-minute 100/130-ema's converge at 536.91-536.97, so plans should be made to protect bearish profits in the 537-ish level if the OEX should decline that far, in case it bounces from those averages. The 536.30 channel line is the one that usually stops the OEX advances and declines, so plans should also be made to protect bearish profits in that area. A breakout below that channel line suggests a decline down toward 530, according to the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart.

What about a bounce tomorrow? The turning-lower 30- and 60-minute MACD don't suggest that this would be the likely outcome tomorrow, at least not before consolidation or a pullback to establish support, but if there is a bounce, the 15-minute chart shows Keltner resistance to be widely scattered, too. However, the 5-minute chart shows resistance converging between 538.82 and 539, just over the 60-minute 130-ema. A break over that suggests an attempt at 540, but doesn't suggest much more. At this point, I'd be more likely to suggest using such a bounce as an opportunity to enter a new bearish position than I would to suggest a long entry. However, even with bearish positions, I counsel traders to be careful to protect profits at key levels, as we won't know whether the OEX is going to make a move below weekly support levels until it does so. Until then, any pullback could be just part of the chop above the weekly support.

  Jeff Bailey   8/3/2004,  8:36:32 PM
Whole Foods Market (WFMI) with some retracement work on the bar chart and tie in with PnF chart at this Link

Here's WFMI's PnF chart Link

  OI Technical Staff   8/3/2004,  7:43:08 PM
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