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  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  6:19:13 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  5:54:48 PM
Now I wish I had bought DELL calls at the bell. Apparently they are taking market share from HPQ. DELL is now up +2.48% in AH trading and DELL calls bot before their 10Q and CC should be firmly in the green tomorrow. Maybe we'll add some individual stock puts/calls to our repertoir in coming weeks, in addition to our "niche" position at OI... the SPX cash index. Look out James (grin)

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  5:15:26 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Lower your stops... SPQIO (SPX Sept 1075 call) to 14.90 (holding overnight)

This will give us some room for opening bell volatility. We're risking about -10%, which is minimal for an options trade. I just don't want to be too close to the action at the bell. DELL is rallying about +2% in AH trading so that should set the stage for a rebound tomorrow. At this point I think we are safe unless we get blindsided by some extraneous event (like terror news).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  4:58:51 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  4:33:11 PM
Final thoughts... TRIN approached 3.00 towards today's close. I consider this borderline overdone to the bearish side. We are holding SPQIO (SPX Sept 1075 call) @ 16.60, stop 15.70, overnight in hopes of an oversold bounce tomorrow. We also came very close to the Aug 8th lows before bouncing weakly and then retreating into the close. Still, I consider this close enough to downside targets to tilt risk/reward in favor of an upside bounce tomorrow... stay tuned, and have a great evening.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  4:22:47 PM
Recap of Thursday's trades...
SPQTM (SPX Aug 1065 put) @ 8.00
SPQTM (SPX Aug 1065 put) @ 7.40, -7.5%

Exit SPQUJ (SPX Sept 1050 put) @ 15.00, +17.19% (held overnight)

SPQIN (SPX Sept 1070 call) @ 19.20
SPQIN (SPX Sept 1070 call) @ 20.00, +4.17%

SPQIO (SPX Sept 1075 call) @ 16.60, stop 15.70 (holding overnight)
____________________________________________
Total gain/loss for Thursday = +2.40, +13.86%
Total gain/loss for the week = -2.1, -35.31%

Total gain/loss since inception = +16.35, +130.17%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  4:22:15 PM
QQQ ... went out at $32.47 -1.36% .... trades $32.51 post-Dell

Dell Computer (DELL) $33.12 -1.34% .... ticks by at $33.22

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  4:15:52 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity

Day trade short Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $75.31, close out at $74.66 ($+0.65, or +0.86%).

Day trade short Paychex (PAYX) $29.91, closed out at $29.99 ($-0.08, or -0.27%).

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/12/200,  4:06:33 PM
Mark, I will be at a seminar most of the week so that should not be a problem.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  4:05:27 PM
Have a great vacation Jim, and try not to look at your computer! &:>)

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/12/200,  4:01:44 PM
Dell earnings alert - +31 cents, inline on earnings and revenue - Cash flow was much lower than expected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  3:59:50 PM
Bearish day trade close out alert for ... Paychex (PAYX) $29.99 ... ($-0.08, or -0.27%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  3:54:22 PM
The TRAN trades just under 3000, so it's difficult to judge whether it will close under 3000 or not. It does appear likely to close below the midpoint of Tuesday's tall white candle, however, creating its second reversal signal this week, with this one an evening-star reversal signal.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  3:53:35 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPQIO (SPX Sept 1075 call) @ 16.60, stop 15.70, hold overnight

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  3:50:33 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Stand by for a possible long play to hold overnight.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  3:50:24 PM
OEX bears want to see a lower low, of course, especially those who might have entered new positions on the original break out of the OEX's "b" distribution pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  3:49:08 PM
Bearish day trade close out alert .... for ... Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $74.66 -1.80% at the offer. ($+0.65, or +0.86%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  3:47:02 PM
In reference to James' 15:18 post, I, too, am concentrating mostly in the indices, and look at individual charts only to help me measure what's happening with the indices or to answer readers' emails. However, during at least the beginning portion of 2003's rally, that same fear in reverse (stocks were already up so much, already so overbought, etc.) kept me from participating in the beginning of the rally. I kept timidly buying stocks or calls and then quickly getting out again, keeping my gains modest, but then attempting bearish plays on signs of rollovers, and getting repeatedly whipsawed out of my trades. When the trend is down, those signs of reversals typically resulted in only a small pullback or even just consolidation. That's not particularly healthy for a trading account, as you can imagine, where you instead want to let your winners run to make up for the inevitable whipsaws. A reader reminded me that "the trend is your friend," as Mark mentioned earlier. I can't make any general recommendations about individual stocks, but thought I'd share that impression.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  3:44:50 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exiting now... SPQIN (SPX Sept 1070 call) @ 20.00, +4.17%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  3:42:23 PM
I'm reviewing my 30 min futures charts and see that the 30 min cycle oscillators are turning up across the board here. A move above 32.66 QQQ should be good for some upside followthrough.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  3:38:32 PM
The bounce in QQQ continues to labor like my parent's old Volvo intercooler on a hot day with a/c on. It would get us where we were going, but everyone kind of held their breath. The short cycle uphase is abot halfway done, and the bounce in price is more than merely sideways, but there's another lower high in place so far and the bulls are running out of time fore a big launch above 32.66, being the current top of this cycle.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  3:37:20 PM
James... re: your 15:18 post I would only reiterate that we came close to the Aug 8th lows (on the indices) and are bouncing, weakly. It may only be a deadcat bounce with serious declines to follow (per Keene's commentary) but it appears to be good for at least a scalp with tight stops. I don't see any clear signals one way or the other at this point. Individual stox are a different story, but "let the trend be your friend" and right now it appears to be down. 3 out of 4 stox will go down in a downtrending market and vice versa. Personally I'm staying away from individual stox and playing the markets with index puts/calls at perceived inflection points. I'm seeing a "potential" buy signal developing on SPX but it's not confirmed yet. They may just run this flat from current levels into the close and leave us guessing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  3:36:19 PM
The OEX's pattern could still be a bear flag, with the earlier action just widening it a bit. It was just a case of one pattern morphing into another, and then morphing into another. Bears would still like to see the OEX maintain values below 520.42 or ideally, below 520.

Start thinking now what you want to do about holding a position overnight, in front of Dell earnings. The other indices have not followed the OEX into a breakdown of its possible "b" distribution pattern, and the OEX is currently hovering at the bottom of that pattern, trying to break back or else about to roll down again. We don't know what Dell is going to say and how much markets have already priced in what they might say. If you entered a bearish position yesterday on one of the approaches to the 527-528.50 zone, as I suggested that some might do, you've got profits under your belt, so some profit-saving techniques might be attempted. Those might include selling part of a position. They might also include selling all of a position, taking all profits, and only investing a portion of them by rolling down into a lower strike put. They might include selling the whole position and just gloating overnight, looking for another opportunity to enter a play another time. You might try Mark's tactic of bracketing your position with a call, selling the unprofitable one tomorrow morning. Understand what your risks before you undertake that tactic. A risk for me is that I can't leave any kind of hedged position alone, for some reason, unless I established a spread as a single position. I don't know what there is about my personality, but I always want to adjust those hedged positions or always sell the opposing option position at the wrong time . . . anyway, there's some kink in my personality that causes me to go against my best instincts and experiences unless I established the hedged position as a single position. Know your own style, too, when making decisions. Make a decision soon, however.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  3:25:18 PM
Maria Bartiromo needs to check her clock. She just said there are six minutes left until the close. She's about 30 minutes early.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  3:19:41 PM
Day trade short alert .... Paychex (PAYX) $29.91 -0.90% here at the bid, stop $30.05, target $29.65 by the close.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  3:18:33 PM
A reader emailed asking..."so many stocks look so oversold that I'm hesitant to consider new bearish positions. Does anyone else feel this way?"

If the MM crew would like to comment...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  3:13:25 PM
Hmm. Just noticed that although the OEX broke below the bulb of its probable "b" distribution pattern, the Dow, SPX, and Russell 2000 have not broken down out of similar formations. Either the OEX is leading the way, or else OEX bears better be careful. Those bears sure would like to see confirming breakdowns in those other indices.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  3:12:30 PM
We should be at a bounce point here (SPX 1065.34), unless the bottom is going to fall out. The way I'm looking at the current situation is we had a nice bounce from very close to the Aug 8th lows (and Jim's exit target for shorts). If we can hold these levels for a bit I think we may see some short covering into the close... emphasis on IF. The silver lining is we came very close to nailing the bottom and with stops @ break even we are in a no lose situation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  3:11:55 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  3:10:27 PM
Another stock bucking the downtrend is Comerica (CMA). The stock is up 2.5% and breaking out over resistance at the $59.00 level. There doesn't seem to be any specific catalyst for the move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  3:10:16 PM
Bears are receiving their needed five-minute closes beneath the Keltner channel line now at 521.18. Now they need to see the OEX move down toward the channel line currently at 520.45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  3:07:02 PM
The last surge has stopped the decline in teh 30 min cycle channel. Unless price falls back down within the next 10 minutes or so, look for an upturn in the 30 min channel, with support currently 32.25 and resistance 32.80 and rising.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  3:04:24 PM
Now the OEX returns to its breakout point, to the 521-ish level. Bulls need it to firm here; bears need five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 521.26.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  3:03:44 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:57:13 PM
September Crude futures (cl04u) $45.45 +1.45% (30-minute delayed) .... has been holding its DAILY R1 ($45.42) for bulk of the afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:53:43 PM
Paychex (PAYX) .... $29.98 -0.66% .... session low came at its QCharts DAILY S1 and currently trades its DAILY Pivot.

Hmmmm.... these NASDAQ-100 components seem to be computer traded today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  2:53:15 PM
The OEX appears to have broken above its possible bear flag. However, although the OEX pierced the resistance gathering near 521.70 on its five-minute chart, it hasn't yet had a five-minute close above it, so there's mixed evidence here.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:51:25 PM
Uh-oh! Golden West Financial (GDW) is down more than 3% to $101.43 and breaking down under its simple and exponential 200-dma's as well as the bottom of its recent trading range. Readers might want to consider bearish positions if GDW breaks the $100 mark.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:51:19 PM
QQQ $32.58 -1.03% ... found some sellers on retest of DAILY S1.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:50:30 PM
Whole Foods (WFMI) $74.72 -1.65% ... gets some volume. They say "volume proceeds price" so be alert.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:49:16 PM
Bucking the downtrend is Avon (AVP). The stock is up four days in a row and pushing through the top of its recent trading range. Now AVP is trading above technical resistance at the simple 40 and 50-dma's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:47:56 PM
Whole Foods (WFMI) $74.81 -1.61% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:47:24 PM
QQQ $32.64 .... back to DAILY S1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:47:08 PM
Trendline resistance breaking here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  2:46:54 PM
Another series of bullish kisses on the 1-min SPX chart. If we can take out the last swing high @ 1066.17 we may be in the clear... Done! currently printing 1066.71. There's a heck of a battle going on here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:46:25 PM
It looks like 32.58 wants to break, but if it doesn't and the short cycle upphase aborts early again, we should see a strong retest of the session lows on the bearish failure.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:44:09 PM
The descending trendline in my earlier QQQ chart is reasserting itself as resistance at 32.58. The short cycle upphase is trying to mount a change, but strong sell volume has been clipping the attempts so far.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:43:55 PM
Starbucks (SBUX) has been a pillar of strength in the markets from mid-May through the end of July. Now shares have cracked what should have been support at the $45.00 level and its simple 50-dma. The stock looks vulnerable to testing the $40.00 level as support but the simple 100-dma near $42 could offer support as well. Bulls can watch for a bounce from the 100-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:39:06 PM
This could be a bearish entry point on HIG. The insurance stock is breaking down under support at the $60.00 level. I'm sure the dual tropical storms on the east coast don't inspire investor confidence here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:32:11 PM
QQQ chart update at this Link .

Welcome back, Jim.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:31:38 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for Whole Foods (WFMI) $74.67 -1.8% .... to $75.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  2:31:22 PM
On the OEX's five-minute chart, the pattern off the day's low looks like another bear flag, but there's just not much strong resistance (Keltner wise) above the OEX's current position. Resistance is trying to gather near 521.50-521.75, but I'm not sure it's going to be strong enough. Stronger resistance is just above 523.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:30:54 PM
Bonds have strengthened during this time, no doubt assisted by the net add from the Fed's open market desk this AM. The TNX is currently down 2.8 bps to 4.25%, with ZN bond futures up .218 to 112.4688.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:28:55 PM
A volume spike her has QQQ gapping up on the 100-tick candles. Resistance is at 32.55.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:27:45 PM
EMC is sharply lower, down 6.7% to $9.46. The breakdown under the $10.00 mark looks like bad news.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:24:53 PM
The XBD broker-dealer index is rolling over near the top of its descending channel. Readers might want to consider bearish positions in the sector.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is breaking down through the bottom of its recent trading range between $84-86. The P&F chart has a $78 target.

MER and MWD are suffering under a trend of lower highs.

LEH has reversed its recent bullish breakout.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:22:24 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 363.67 -2.48% ... session low and DAILY S2/WEEKLY S2 correlation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:20:11 PM
TRIN 2.50 ... session high. Watch for 2.84 as a potential "reversal" level.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:19:38 PM
IBM is nearing new one-year lows with today's 1.9% drop to $82. The move is heavily influenced by the sour HPQ earnings. IBM's bear-flag target should be in the $81-80 region but the P&F chart points to a $77 target.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:17:45 PM
"Brooklyn bridge" trendline chart of QQQ at this Link shows a very weak bounce that has served only to relief some of the oversold short cycle pressure for QQQ. During that time, declining 30 min channel support has made it to 32.27 QQQ, and resistance looks far away at 32.73. Provided that 32.55-32.60 remains intact, the outlook will continue to look bearish, and the action (or lack thereof) on this bounce so far confirms it.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:16:10 PM
Software giant Oracle (ORCL) is breaking down under support at the $10.00 level. Shares haven't traded under $10 since November 2002. The next level of support should be the $9.00 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:14:16 PM
QQQ $32.44 -1.45% ... I see the Q's came within a penny of their DAILY S2 ($32.36) at this point.

Whole Foods (WFMI) $74.92 -1.45% ... traded a session low of $74.29, 4-cents above my day trade bearish target. Still some time left in today's session, so will hang tough.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  2:13:50 PM
OEX bears want to see 15-minute closes beneath the channel line currently at 521.34, or at least below 522.56. If the OEX holds up at the current level or above for two long, that's going to allow Keltner support to snake under it and firm up again.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:13:31 PM
United Parcel Service (UPS) has broken down through support at the $70.00 mark but it has also broken its trendline of higher lows dating back to March. This looks like an entry point for momentum put plays but it will take a drop under $68 to produce the next P&F sell signal.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:11:18 PM
The drop back through $70.00 and its simple 200-dma in AIG has been followed by a trend of lower highs. Now AIG is testing P&F support at the $66-67 level. A breakdown here and we could see AIG move significantly toward its bearish P&F target at $57.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  2:10:58 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQIN (SPX Sept 1070 call) to 19.20 and break even
After no less than 6 bullish kisses on the SPX 1-min chart we are gaining some traction to the upside... slooooowly. If you are uncomfortable with this trade you can exit right now for 19.70 and a +2.6% profit. The worst we can do at this point is exit @ 19.20 for break even.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  2:10:49 PM
The TRAN is struggling to stay above 3000, currently at 3004.88. Frankly, though, I'm amazed that the TRAN is holding up as well as it is with crude costs doing what they're doing today. The TRAN is still holding within its descending regression channel, not even currently at the bottom support but nearer the middle of that channel. This channel is far too big to be a bull flag, it appears to me, but the TRAN still clings to that support. Something is going on here that I don't understand, so that tells me to be careful with any conclusions, either bullish or bearish, and I'm extending that to all the markets since the TRAN is such a bellwether index for the general health of the economy. If the economy is doing well, lots of goods and people are going to be transported around, and if it's not, they're not.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  2:07:48 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  2:06:09 PM
Oil refiner Valero Energy (VLO) still looks weak after trading lower over the last month. Traders appear to be selling the rallies and the stock has broken multiple levels of support. Today's early morning bounce is failing at the simple 100-dma. Should this trend continue the next stop is likely to be the $60.00 mark.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  2:01:52 PM
The FOMC minutes have just been released. Ticker headlines coming out now:

2:00pm INFLATION CONCERN DOMINATED FOMC JUNE MEETING

2:00pm SOME FOMC MEMBERS SAW RISK OF HIGHER INFLATION

2:00pm SOME FOMC MEMBERS SAW NEED FOR AGGRESSIVE RATE HIKES

2:00pm HIGH OIL PASSING THOUGH TO CORE CONSUMER PRICES: FOMC

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  2:00:02 PM
Let's assume now that the continuation-form H&S that I pointed out earlier on the OEX's five-minute chart was valid. The neckline was broken and then retested, and then the sharper drop began, so I think the OEX is acting as it should after breaking through the neckline of a H&S. The question is whether it will now reach the downside target of that H&S, with that downside target at about 518.20. The five-minute MACD just made a tentative bullish cross, although from below signal, and it's again showing bullish price/MACD divergence as it did so. Bears should keep following the OEX lower with their stops, but continue to let price be your ultimate guide. Some time or another, those bullish divergences are going to matter, but we've seen this happen for hours and they only predict a bear-flag bounce or something similar. Just be prepared and don't let profits get away from you.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:46:34 PM
QQQ volume is declining so far on the current bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:45:59 PM
The current break, if it holds below the QQQ 32.50-55 area, would be a bull wedge failure- according to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, that's the less likely outcome of bull wedges, with 3/4 of bull wedge formations breaking to the upside. Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   8/12/200,  1:37:19 PM
Linda especially a manager in the server and storage business.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  1:36:22 PM
I certainly wouldn't want to be management at HPQ. (See James' 13:25 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:32:01 PM
We know the drill- 32.55 QQQ is now resistance. The short cycle needs to bounce, but as we've seen in the past, it can trend for hours in oversold or overbought territory. If it stays below 32.55, this will be one of those trending moves.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:28:11 PM
Chart of Nymex crude oil at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  1:27:46 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPQIN (SPX Sept 1070 call) @ 19.20, stop 18.20

Peeking back in here... we just came close to the Aug 8 lows and are bouncing. I'll be away for the remainder of the day unless I get a chance to peek in again. Keep your stops @ 18.20. If we can stay above the Aug 8 low @ 1062.23 we may have a good play here. If we're in the green @ EOD hold this play overnight. We're only risking about -5.2% here and it will require a complete breakdown to shake us out.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  1:25:49 PM
Hewlett Packard (HPQ) continues to sink after its disappointing earnings report. The stock is now down more than 17% to $16.17, which are new 18-month lows.

Here's an excerpt from their earnings release:

"Although we are satisfied with our performance in Personal Systems, Imaging and Printing, Software and Services, these solid results were overshadowed by unacceptable execution in Enterprise Servers and Storage. We therefore are making immediate management changes. We are also accelerating our margin improvement plans in this business. With these changes, we expect our server and storage business to return to profitability in the fourth quarter," said Carly Fiorina, HP chairman and chief executive officer.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:24:51 PM
Nymex crude 45.60, +1.79%, new high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:24:25 PM
QQQ 100-tick 2 day chart at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  1:23:44 PM
Lower Keltner support has now dropped to OEX 518.78. Those in bearish positions now prefer for the OEX to stay below the channel line now at 520.74. As long as the OEX closes five-minute periods below 521.96, it will keep the smallest channel pointed lower, however. More resistance gathers at 523.50-524.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  1:21:27 PM
American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) also beat estimates by 2 cents as Q2 same-store sales rose more than 12%. The company also reaffirmed its Q3 guidance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:20:22 PM
QQQ testing lower 30 min channel support now. The short cycle oscillators aren't buried yet, but getting close.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  1:17:38 PM
Dow-component Wal-Mart (WMT) is desperately trying to hold on to its gains after reporting earnings this morning that beat analysts' estimates. The stock is rolling over from its highs for the session and is now back under the $53.00 level. WMT is still up 2.2%.

WMT beat by 2 cents but came in under the revenue estimates. The company also reaffirmed its guidance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  1:17:18 PM
Whole Foods (WFMI) $74.74 -1.70% ... darts to session low and breaks DAILY S1 ($75.06). May be vulnerable to its DAILY S2 $74.11.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  1:17:15 PM
The OEX has broken below the 520.83 low from 8/06/04, suggesting a breakdown out of the "b" distribution pattern. Anyone considering entering a new bearish position, however, should be prepared to be whipsawed if this is just a false break, especially as 520 should be considered potential round-number support.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  1:11:53 PM
One semiconductor stock bucking the downtrend is AMCC. Shares are up more than 5% to $3.09 after announcing a $200 million stock buyback program.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  1:11:00 PM
Bears didn't need a warning after all, did they? The OEX is reaching down toward lower Keltner support, touching it as I type. This is either a bounce point or another breakdown point. Bears should make plans to protect profits.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:08:34 PM
30 min channel support is declining and currently at 32.45.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  1:08:14 PM
Brinker Intl Inc (EAT) is down another 4.2% to $30.26 on top of yesterday's steep losses. On Wednesday EAT reported earnings in-line but then guided lower for future quarters.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  1:07:37 PM
QQQ $32.53 -1.16% ... testing morning lows.

WFMI $75.13 -1.19% ... approaching morning lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:06:57 PM
The short cycle oscillators are oversold but no longer maxxed out. There's a bullish divergence on the short cycle TRIX, but it can cut either way. Yesterday's low is being tested here, and if volume picks up a bit, the bears should have their break.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  1:06:20 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:05:54 PM
Session lows breaking out- 32.55 QQQ looking vulnerable here.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  1:04:05 PM
Semiconductor stock RF Micro Devices (RFMD) is down more than 4% after Deutsche Bank downgraded shares to a "sell" with a $3.50 price target.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  1:02:16 PM
Session lows for MSFT and GE.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  1:00:08 PM
Bullish divergence is showing up as the OEX tests the level of the 10:25 low, and the five-minute candles are beginning to show lower candle shadows. So far, the OEX still finds resistance where bears would hope it would, but these signs warn bears to be careful. A move over 523.96 would confirm a double bottom formation.

Although it's of course possible that the OEX is preparing to bounce up within the bulb of its possible "b" distribution pattern, TRIN doesn't support a bullish conclusion for today's moves, and any such move would be a possible countertrend move within a formation that's typically considered bearish. I'm not suggesting that traders consider a bullish play. It's of course possible that one could be profitable, but a move up through the chop zone within a potentially bearish formation just doesn't appeal to me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  12:55:43 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  12:54:00 PM
Ouch! Cyberonics (CYBX) is down more than 40% to $14.35 after reporting earnings that were in-line with expectations. The problem was with their guidance wherein the company guided earnings very low and significantly below analysts' estimates. Weakness in the stock has been compounded by news that the FDA has rejected CYBX's VNS nerve stimulation device. A.G.Edwards has downgraded the stock to a "sell".

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:53:39 PM
Perhaps a bearish descending triangle setting up today with support at 32.55 QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:52:56 PM
The short cycle oscillators for QQQ are now officially chopped up, and the intraday trendlines have resulted in a "golden gate bridge" / gann-like mess. Link The net result is that we're in a chop zone, and I'd use a range of 32.55 (confiremed by a break of 32.50) to the downside or 32.85 (confirmed with a break of 33.02) to the upside for direction. It's starting to feel like a blender inside this range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  12:46:04 PM
QQQ $32.64 -0.85% .... edges back up to test DAILY S1 again.

WFMI $75.50 -0.71% ....

It's going to be close....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  12:36:26 PM
Bears hoping the OEX will see the lower Keltner support now at 520.77 would prefer to see the OEX close each five-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 522.39, but certainly want it to close those five-minute periods below 522.87.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  12:34:13 PM
High-end jeweler Tiffany & Co (TIF) is down more than 11% to $28.06 on massive volume after reporting earnings this morning. The company missed estimates by 4 cents and guided lower under analysts' estimates. BAC has downgraded the stock to "neutral" and GS has cut the stock to "in-line".

Here's an excerpt from their press release:

"These second quarter results reflect better-than-expected sales performance in Tiffany's U.S. retail operations, while Direct Marketing sales were disappointing. As anticipated, Japan results continued to suffer from weak silver jewelry sales."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  12:33:52 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:33:36 PM
2-day 100-tick QQQ chart at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:32:52 PM
Session lows for GE and MSFT here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:26:23 PM
Bonds have bounced from their earlier lows, with TNX up to a .4 bp loss at 4.281%. ZN bond futures are up to 112.2656, currently flat on the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:23:35 PM
This is still technically a higher low for the day, always assuming that QQQ doesn't just tank from here. This last dip is counter to the wavelet and short cycle upphases and on that basis shouldn't have happened. Unless it reverses pretty much immediately, it indicates extreme weakness and a steep 30 min cycle downphase, given that the short cycle upphase aborted from below its midpoints and well below overbought territory. 30 min channel resistance at 32.88 didn't even get approached.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  12:23:19 PM
OI put play RIMM is down another 3% to $53.17 on top of yesterday's decline. Shares are slipping to a new 2 1/2 month low. The $50.00 mark should become a magnet at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  12:22:33 PM
The OEX appears to be breaking below the neckline of the H&S. I say "appears" because it's broken down below it on the last five-minute candle, too, immediately bouncing higher again. The OEX is sliding lower along Keltner support that's sliding lower, too, breaking minimally below that support as I type. If the OEX maintains this breakdown by maintaining values below the Keltner line currently at 522.15, it sets up a possible test of the lower Keltner support, currently at 520.81, near known historical S/R.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  12:20:59 PM
TRIN 1.85 pops to session high.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  12:20:45 PM
OI put play EBAY is still trying to bounce, up 19 cents to $76.55. The stock did trade to its simple 21-dma (77.25) this morning before slipping backward. We need to be careful here and watch our stop loss.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  12:19:40 PM
Day trade short alert .... Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $75.31 -0.96% here at the bid, stop $75.55, target $74.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:18:55 PM
Session low for MSFT here.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  12:17:27 PM
OI put play AZO is looking good again. The stock is down more than 2.5% and back under the $75.00 and $74.00 levels. This could be another entry point for puts.

 
 
  James Brown   8/12/200,  12:15:10 PM
If you squint your eyes it looks like restaurant Ruby Tuesday (RI) has formed a head-and-shoulders over the last year or so. The stock is slipping under support at $27.00 and $26.50 now hitting new one-year lows. If it is an H&S Pattern then the target should be the $21 region.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:13:03 PM
Crude oil is trading 45.275 here, up .475 or 1.06%. QQQ feels like it has an anvil tied around its neck.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  12:11:12 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  12:09:54 PM
There's a possible continuation-form H&S developing on the OEX's five-minute chart. By now, you all know how I feel about these formations, considering them unreliable, but I still feel a need to mention what I see developing. If that's what it is, the OEX probably shouldn't rise above 523.45 or so before rounding over toward the neckline, currently at about 522.55 but rising. I don't count on these formations confirming or meeting their downside targets, but it perhaps does serve to show us whether underlying bearish sentiment will prevail or whether bullish sentiment will over the short-term, rejecting the formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:08:14 PM
Here's that wavelet bounce trying to start- but bulls need to clear 32.72 QQQ again and get above 32.80. The outlook will be quite bearish if the short cycle bounce can't at least exceed the prior high at that level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  12:02:13 PM
Look for support at 32.60 QQQ, which is fibonacci support lining up with the currently oversold wavelet oscillator. A bounce from here would confirm the current short cycle upphase. 30 min channel support has risen to 32.48.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  11:51:07 AM
Session low for INTC here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  11:45:31 AM
OEX 524 resistance held. The OEX is traveling down through its probable bear flag on its five-minute chart, but there hasn't been a breakdown out of that flag yet. Its support is currently being tested, at about 522.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  11:42:39 AM
2-day 10-tick updated chart of Nymex crude: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  11:40:30 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick update at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  11:37:00 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exiting now... SPQUJ (SPX Sept 1050 put) @ 15.00, +17.19%

I'll be away for the remainder of the day and in the current uncertain atmosphere didn't want to leave you with an open trade. If SPX reverses lower from here so be it, but we don't really know that and once we take profits they can't take them back.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  11:36:24 AM
The OEX was not stopped by the Keltner line now at 523.32, as bears would have preferred and is instead rising toward 524 historical resistance, to test it. Bears want to see the OEX back below that Keltner line at 523.32.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  11:36:02 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  11:29:17 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQTM (SPX Aug 1065 put) @ 7.40, -7.5%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  11:28:26 AM
QQQ clears 32.72, now testing 32.78 fib/confluence resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  11:28:11 AM
I'm wondering if the SOX may be responsible for keeping this market hanging on by it's fingernails. Yesterday and today the SOX dropped to the 365-366 area but refused to go lower. The 365 ares is the downside target for confirmed H&S and Diamond formations from about 6 weeks ago.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  11:22:27 AM
QQQ is still chipping away at the 32.72 resistance level, still without success.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  11:15:58 AM
Stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  11:15:18 AM
The TRAN bounced from its test of 3000, and is currently at 3021.15.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  11:07:35 AM
A short cycle upphase has kicked off and is taking its first steps, currently testing 32.72 QQQ resistance. A wavelet upphase is just topping out here, and we'll look for a higher wavelet low on the next downphase to confirm the short cycle strength- anything above 32.60 should do it. 32.80 and 32.85 are the next resistance levels to watch. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  11:05:24 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  11:01:38 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPQTM (SPX Aug 1065 put) @ 8.00, stop 7.40

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  10:58:59 AM
The OEX is now near the bottom of the bulb of that possible "b" distribution pattern, which means that it may be time for the OEX to make a trip back up through the bulb, back toward 527-528.50. However, it could also be time for the OEX to break down, as the "b" pattern suggests it could. Those in bearish positions from the 527 area should have plans in place now to protect profits. Currently, the rise on the five-minute chart looks like a possible bear-flag rise and the OEX is finding resistance at the channel lines that bears would hope that it would, but have those plans in place anyway. You don't want to ride the OEX back up to 527-528.50 while still in a bearish play, letting all your profits turn to losses. Currently, bears would hope to see the OEX finding resistance at the channel line currently at 522.99, closing each five-minute period below that line, while bulls would like to see the OEX maintain values above 523.59.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  10:55:32 AM
Thanks Jonathan... I didn't want to be the only one apologizing today (grin)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:52:01 AM
Correction re: the Fed's open market ops for today: I missed a 7-day repo, and the net addition for the day is therefore 4.25B- not 9.25B as I reported earlier. My apologies.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  10:49:20 AM
We came within about 1 pt of yesterday's LOD (SPX 1065.92) before bouncing. The bounce is good for about 2 pts so far, but as Keene noted it needs to get some traction here or risk testing 1065.92.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:37:43 AM
A wavelet upphase is underway and has stopped the short cycle downphase in oversold territory. A move above 32.66 should be enough to trigger a new short cycle upphase for QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  10:36:27 AM
The OEX has not yet hit the 521.41 level set as a downside Keltner target, although it has twice briefly violated 522, coming within $0.50 of that target. The lower support has drifted down to 521.25, but the OEX is trying to steady and push up again, perhaps in a bounce-and-potential-rollover move or perhaps in something more short-term bullish. Kelner resistance is trying to converge just above 523, but hasn't quite done that yet, so if the OEX bounces hard enough and fast enough, it could get through that level before the resistance firmed. So far, it's maintaining the breakdown signal, but is trying to rise as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  10:32:28 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch your stops up... SPQUJ (SPX Sept 1050 put) to 14.10
Let's lock in a +10% gain

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:28:48 AM
2-day 10-tick chart of Nymex crude at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:27:58 AM
100 tick QQQ update at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  10:26:14 AM
My sincere apologies for entering the wrong ticker symbol on our long play. SPQTO is the SPX Aug 1075 put, not the call. Since prices never approached 11.50 I assume no one was able to enter the trade. If you did enter SPQTO at the current prices then you are nicely in the green so hopefully no harm, no foul.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:24:56 AM
QQQ is bouncing from the 32.56 level, with the short cycle oscillators buried in oversold. The price needs to hold above the highs long enough for even the short wavelet oscillator to turn up- but so far it's just a deadcat bounce. The 30 min channel support is diving to 32.50 here, and so if the session low breaks, there's room for acceleration below (coinciding with yesterday's low at 32.55).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  10:20:51 AM
The OEX has now set up a possible downside target of 521.41, but I would expect some traders to buy at or just ahead of yesterday's 10:00 low, too, so we'll have to see how high the OEX bounces if that occurs. Next Keltner resistance is near 523.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  10:18:44 AM
Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $75.50 -0.71% .... turns defensive on large intra-day volume spike.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:15:54 AM
Session lows across the board here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  10:12:19 AM
At 523.59, the OEX hit the lower Keltner support line that usually stops its declines. A break below that--either by sustaining values just below it or by moving sharply below it and not bouncing immediately--will set up a possible downside target of 521.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:07:52 AM
The short cycle downphase for QQQ almost reversed but did not, and the current dip has it just entering oversold territory now. 30 min channel support is down to 60 min channel support at 32.57, and by that level the short cycle will be maxxed out to the downside. However, with the 30 min cycle rolling over and just beginning a downphase, there's the potential for far more damage if the price doesn't bounce immediately from 30/60 min channel support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  10:04:48 AM
Friday, Monday, and Tuesday, the TRAN put together a three-candle combination that was an almost perfect morning-star reversal pattern. I commented at the time that during downtrends, sometimes the only reversal is the one needed to produce the reversal signal--Tuesday's tall white candle in this case. Yesterday, the TRAN produced a high-wave doji at the top of the climb. Today, the TRAN is turning down from yesterday's close, presenting the possibility that it could complete an evening-star formation today. The day is far from over, of course, and anything could happen, but the TRAN has been an important index to watch of late.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:04:23 AM
Session low for the Dow futures here, and QQQ is testing 32.72 support again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  10:03:44 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:01:59 AM
There's a net 2B addition on a 14-day basis, for a total of 9.25B in new money from the Fed. That reverses the austerity we saw yesterday, and should help to give the markets a positive bias today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  10:00:43 AM
An overnight repo with no overnight expiries today gives us a 7.25B net addition. Computing the long term repo picture on a 14-day basis- results shortly.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  9:59:30 AM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Developing long signal on SPX... stand by. If we go long it will be with SPQTO (SPX Aug 1075 call)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  9:56:41 AM
Here's a chart of the OEX's action with regard to the 15-minute 100/130-ema's: Link Clearly, these averages, currently at 526.65 and 527.21, have been important in recent trading and should be watched today, too.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  9:55:53 AM
I'm going to be a very unhappy camper if today's action is a repeat performance of yesterday, not because I don't want the market to go up, but because I wouldn't really understand the reason for the move.

 
 
  Jane Fox   8/12/200,  9:55:06 AM
Not using the first 5 minute candle on the TRIN I see daily lows at 1.17, which match previous day lows.

 
 
  Jane Fox   8/12/200,  9:53:25 AM
Linda I think using the previous day highs and lows on the TRIN today will work to tell you bullish or bearish. The TRIN was bearish all day yesterday and even though we had a nice rally in the afternoon it didn’t budge. Previous day lows are 1.16 (made in the morning) and I will be using 2.19 as the high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  9:52:04 AM
QQQ is sitting on support at the apex of the pennant here, with support down to 32.72 currently, below which it will again qualify as a downside break. If such occurs on rising volume, expect some continuation to the downside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  9:48:28 AM
What do you say, Jane? Can we trust TRIN this morning?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  9:47:17 AM
First Keltner resistance did hold in early OEX trading. That resistance is now gathering near 525.20-525.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  9:44:53 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  9:44:12 AM
It appears the best strategy for the last two days would have been to go short just before the closing bell, then cover your short and go long just after the opening bell. I don't know too many people who trade that way. What a goofy market.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  9:43:29 AM
QQQ failed at 32.86 , currently back to the 32.78 level. GE is making a session low as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/12/200,  9:41:47 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch your stops up... SPQUJ (SPX Sept 1050 put) to 12.80 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  9:38:04 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX ranged from 525.47 down to 523.99.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  9:37:05 AM
Session high for QQQ at 32.78 on a whipsaw reversal. 30 min channel resistance remains 33.10, but bulls need to deal with 32.80, 32.85, 32.92 and 32.97-33.02 resistance first. The short cycle is rolling over but the strong volume on this bounce is challenging it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  9:35:58 AM
If the 527-528.50 resistance is holding, that OEX 524-ish support appears to be still holding during early trading today, too. This quick movement in early trading has scrambled the Keltner lines on the five-minute chart, but next resistance appears to be at 525.24, and appears moderately strong.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  9:34:41 AM
Realtime QQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  9:31:05 AM
QQQ printing below rising pennant support at the opening bell. Current support now resistance is 32.72.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  9:29:31 AM
Sessionlow for gold at 398 and session high for Nymex crude at 45.025.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  9:16:04 AM
The 30 min cycle oscillators (basis Naz futures as a proxy for QQQ Link ) are rolling over on this morning's weakness from a lower high, which is a tipoff for daily cycle weakness. The pattern seems to fit with a descending wedge, but the lower oscillator high is a sign of trouble for bulls unless and until the upper descending resistance line breaks. 30 min channel support is 32.66 currently, resistance 33.10 QQQ. A break above 33.20 on expanding volume would coincide with an upper descending trendline break.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  9:09:14 AM
Futures are down again this morning, so it looks as if the 527-528.50 zone might hold again as resistance for the OEX. Sometimes cash markets don't open in accordance with futures behavior, so we'll have to see. We're in a choppy zone now for the OEX, inside the bulb of the possible "b" distribution pattern, so be prepared to have your positions chopped up while the OEX remains within that zone. Selling rallies up to that 527-528.50 resistance still appears to be a possible tactic, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a break out of that bulb portion, maybe false or maybe not, that could whipsaw traders. We can't be sure the eventual break will be to the downside, either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  8:43:43 AM
We have Business Inventories for June due at 10AM, est. +.6%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  8:42:16 AM
Session low for bonds, with TNX up 1.4 bps to 4.291%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  8:40:48 AM
QQQ is bouncing here to 32.80. Support came at lower 30 min channel support and lower rising trendline support under yesterday's pennant formation: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  8:32:24 AM
Gold peaked at 400 and is back to 399.50, ditto euro futrues at 1.231. Equiteis are slightly lower, with QQQ currently down .20 at 32.72.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  8:30:54 AM
8:29am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 4,000 TO 333,000

8:29am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 4,250 TO 339,250

8:29am U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES UP 0.7% VS. 1.1% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. JULY EX-AUTO SALES UP 0.2% VS. 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 5,000 TO 2.90 MLN

Previous retail sales were revised to -1.1%, retail sales ex-auto revised to -.2%, intial claims to 336K. Just out:

Export prices ex-ag +.4%, import prices ex-oil +.1%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  8:29:06 AM
Data due in 2 minutes. Gold and euros at session highs of 399.5 and 1.2269 respectively.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/12/200,  7:53:21 AM
Equities are lower, with ES -5 at 1070.75, NQ -8.50 at 1318, YM -44 at 9887 and QQQ -.18 at 32.74. Gold is up 1.30 to 398.90, silver +.054 at 6.589, crude oil up .175 at 44.975 and ten year treasury bonds up .031 at 112.2812.

We have a full roster of economic data due at 8:30: business inventories, est. .6%, export prices ex-ag. and import prices ex-oil, prior -.1% and unchanged, respectively, initial claims, est. 340K, retail sales, est. +1.1%, and retail sales ex-auto, est. +.4%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/12/200,  6:57:59 AM
Good morning. On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for Japan's 2004 economic growth to 4.5% from the previous 3.4%. The Nikkei opened in the red, just above 11,000, and shot up like a geyser toward 11,100, finding resistance at 11,091.64. Then the Nikkei tumbled back almost to its opening level by the close of the morning session. The Nikkei never reached positive values again, closing down 21.39 points or 0.19%, at 11,028.07. The bourse zoomed around as market participants began positioning their accounts ahead of Friday's important Japanese GDP number.

Many techs declined, and at least one article noted that many banks erased early gains. Despite its continuing practice of not providing a full-year outlook, Softbank rose 3.2% after its earnings announcement revealed a Q1 loss that was less than that of the year-ago period. Mitsubishi Tokyo put some of the ingredients of its offer for a merger with UFJ Holdings on the table Thursday, offering up as much as $6.3 billion in financial aid, garnered from other investors and from Mitsubishi Tokyo's own funds. Mitsubishi Tokyo's chairman commented that a basic merger agreement could be signed as soon as today. Meanwhile, Sumitomo Trust has now appealed to the Supreme Court after a higher court overturned the injunction against the UFJ/Mitsubishi Tokyo merger that it had received from a lower court. UFJ Holdings closed 1.8% higher, Mitsubishi Tokyo closed flat, and Sumitomo Trust declined 0.8%.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, with the big news in Asia being a surprise quarter-point rate cut in South Korea, with the Bank of Korea's intention being to counteract the dampening effect of higher oil prices. The Taiwan Weighted was flat, up 0.68 points or 0.01%. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.81%, the biggest percentage gain among Asian bourses. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.42%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.57%. China's plan to coast its economy into a soft landing was dealt a blow Thursday when food costs sent July's consumer prices 5.3% higher. The number met expectations, but was still the biggest gain since early 1997. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.21%.

Currently, European bourses are mixed. GDP figures showed Germany's GDP rising 0.5% above the previous quarter's and 2% above the year-ago level, meeting expectations. France's GDP rose at least 0.8% and perhaps 0.9% above the previous quarter's, a greater-than-expected growth. In the Netherlands, the GDP disappointed, dropping 0.2% from the previous quarter's against an expectation for a 0.3% rise. The ECB commented that rising oil prices would likely keep inflation rates above its preferred 2% rate through to the first few months of 2005.

In the U.K., insurer Royal & Sun and miner Xsrata rolled out earnings results that were well received, CSFB mentioned the attractiveness of U.K. banks, and Shire Pharmaceuticals received U.S. FDA approval for once-daily treatment of adults with its attention deficit hyperactivity disorder drug. Those developments helped send the U.K. bourses into the green. Market watchers comment that gains are being dampened by worries over the impact of crude costs, however.

At least one insurer did not fare so well in Europe, with Aegon declining after its earnings report. However, well-received earnings from German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp helped the steelmakers. Deutsche Telekom also rose after its net income beat expectations. Analysts had mixed impressions of both reporting companies. Deutsche Lufthansa declined after its earnings report, with the profit component at the low end of expectations.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was rapidly losing ground from its earlier gains, nearly flat. It was up 2.20 points or 0.05%, at 4,314.40. The CAC 40 was down 17.09 points or 0.49%, at 3,485.86. The DAX was down 26.55 points or 0.72%, at 3,652.36.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/11/200,  12:07:15 AM
OEX Notes: You're going to be proud of me today. Here's my take on the OEX, short and sweet: Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   8/11/200,  12:07:09 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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