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  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:17:35 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  4:25:31 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Closed out bullish swing trade for Research in Motion (RIMM) just after the open at $59.90. ($+1.42, or +2.43%).

Day trade short Intel (INTC) at $22.06, stopped at $21.85 as that darned TRIN wouldn't break above its QCharts DAILY R2. ($+0.21, or +0.95%)

That's a bullish looking close for Stillwater Mining (SWC) and with one day until expiration, it's going to be close on those August $15 covered calls.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  4:12:33 PM
Recap of Thursday's trades (08-19-04)...

SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.40
SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.90, +3.05%
SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 2.50
SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 2.00, -25.00%
SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 1.40
SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 2.00, +42.86%
SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 1.50
SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 1.30, -13.33%
SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) @ 1.80
SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) @ 1.80, +0.00%
SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) @ 1.50
SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) @ 2.50, +66.67%
Total gain/loss for Thursday = +1.40, +74.25%
Total gain/loss for the week = +8.35, +219.31%
Total gain/loss for the month = +21.60, +384.65%

See you tomorrow.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  4:07:49 PM
MMs were really jerking prices around on our last long play, SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) during the last 20 minutes of trading. At the swing highs they had prices up to 3.00/4.20, then with only a slight drop in price on SPX they pulled the rug again and dropped the bid down to 2.10/3.00... I'll bet there are more than a few bagholders out there experiencing extreme buyers remorse. People who bought at the top lost almost -50% in just 20 minutes with very little price movement. Ouch!

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:57:27 PM
The SOX, Nasdaq, GSO (Software Index), RLX (Retail Index), IUX (Insurance Index), BKX (banking index) and perhaps others are producing the types of candles that I had also expected the Dow, OEX and SPX to produce today: doji or other types of small-bodied candles indicative of hesitation or indecision. The TRAN produces a more bearish, near tweezer-top candle, while the Dow, OEX, and SPX produced candles with a mixture of bearish and bullish characteristics. Those candles sprang up from tests of the 20-dma.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:48:53 PM
Well so much for price pinning! They don't call it scam week for nothing.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  3:44:32 PM
The break above 33.64 QQQ has the short cycle oscillators on a fresh upphase, challenging flattened upper 30 min channel resistance at 33.72. If prices can hold above 33.64 for another 10 minutes or so, I'll expect a 30 min channel upturn to end the corrective downphase we got today.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:42:41 PM
Resistance lines space out widely now on the OEX's five- and fifteen-minute charts. Looks as if the OEX could climb into the close, although any one of those lines could actually catch it. Maybe we're going to get those long candle shadows and small candle bodies after all.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:42:17 PM
Trin 0.99 ...

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:40:34 PM
OEX 532.30 did hold as resistance on the OEX on that first test a few minutes ago . . . well, almost. The OEX did reach 532.33, but the five-minute close was beneath 532.30. However, the OEX is finding Keltner support again near 532, too. Resistance is shown on the five-minute chart: support, on the 15-minute one. Predictions get iffy here, as they should anyway with the end-of-day craziness just ahead of us. (Note: The OEX did push above that resistance as I typed, but I include this post anyway so that you can check how Keltner channels and I are performing.)

Remember that August SPX options stop trading this afternoon, but are settled tomorrow morning, although as always, I urge you to verify that information for yourself: Link

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:39:23 PM
That's it... we're done for the day. It may go higher but risk/reward is not good for a long OR short play IMO with only 20 minutes left to trade.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:34:45 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) @ 2.50, +66.67%
The MMs were really jacking up the prices and I had a feeling it wouldn't be too long before they pulled the rug... and they did.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:34:14 PM
Did anyone else notice that it was only when crude futures stopped trading that indices were able to attempt that bounce? Remember when we all used to wait for the close of the bond market to see what would happen with the indices? Now we wait for the close of trading of crude futures.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:30:59 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:28:48 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops again... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) to 2.50

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:27:18 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops again... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) to 2.20

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  3:23:43 PM
Declining 30 min channel support is at 33.33, resistance 33.75 QQQ. The short cycle oscillators have halted their downphase, and the higher wavelet low on the last test of 33.41 suggests a new short cycle upphase in our future. Bulls need to retake 33.64 in order to stop the 30 min cycle downphase, but that 33.60-.64 range, former support, is putting up a good fight as resistance.

Gold and the miners are holding their gains with HUI up 4.33% at 205.43 and XAU up 3.82% at 93.86. The CRB is up 4 points as well at 275.79.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:21:55 PM
The OEX is heading up into Keltner resistance that is trying to firm at about 532.30. I'm not sure if it's going to firm quickly enough to hold the OEX back, however. If the OEX can manage to climb above that and sustain five-minute closes above it, we could see an attempt at 533.44.

For those who prefer traditional technical analysis, this bounce appears to have come via the 60-minute 100/130-ema's and be setting the OEX up for a possible test of the 120-minute versions, at 532.90 and 532.99, respectively.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:19:45 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) to 2.00
Let's lock in a +33.33% gain while we can

  Jane Fox   8/19/200,  3:19:02 PM
Linda thank you for the vote of confidence.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:18:39 PM
TRIN 1.04

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:18:24 PM
Bearish day trade stop alert ... Intel (INTC) $21.85

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:17:37 PM
I just remember particularly enjoying that article, James, so it stuck in my mind.

Mark Gongloff has a different opinion than a minister in the French government, who was quoted on CNBC Europe as saying that $50/barrel oil, if it remained at that price, would trim 1% off France's expected 2.5% GDP growth.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  3:15:54 PM
...Thank you, Linda. I should have done the same (posting a link to Jane's article).

  James Brown   8/19/200,  3:15:11 PM
Crude oil at $50?

Here's an excerpt from a recent CNN article by Mark Gongloff

"Economists still doubt that $50 oil would cause a recession -- after all, the U.S. economy is the strongest it's been in years, and it's less reliant on oil than it was in the 1970s, when oil spikes caused more painful recessions. $50 is still not as high, adjusted for inflation, as the oil spike in the 1980s, when the Iran/Iraq war pushed inflation-adjusted oil to $80 a barrel."

"Still, high energy prices act as a tax on consumers, who fuel two-thirds of the economy. They eat away at discretionary income, at a time when interest rates are rising and the effects of last year's tax cuts have worn off. Sustained high oil prices could sink economic growth back to closer to trend -- not a recession, but maybe not enough to help a still-healing labor market. "

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:14:39 PM
If we can take out the 2:45PM swing high @ SPX 1088.31 we may have a chance with the current long play, but at this point that's still a big IF.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:14:38 PM
James, in reference to your 15:07 post, Jane wrote an article that I thought might be interesting for readers, on what it means when crude futures and the OSX's movements diverge. Here it is: Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:14:33 PM
TRIN 1.09 ....

Intel INTC $21.81.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:13:51 PM
03:00 Market watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  3:12:00 PM
QQQ continues to trade both sides of 33.50, but the previous low at 33.41 held again. The bulls are running the clock on the 30 min cycle downphase, which continues to look corrective so far.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:10:30 PM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 385.03 -0.51% .... back below its 200-day SMA (386.75).

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  3:10:27 PM
I'm starting to see some bullish divergences. Hopefully this is the (short-term) bottom. I saw buyers coming in at SPX 1087.50 and so far it's holding, if tentatively.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  3:10:11 PM
Retail stocks are holding up considering the RLX index is only down about 0.5% after its recent rally toward technical resistance at the 50 and 200-dma's.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  3:08:35 PM
With oil rising and fuel as their second biggest expense it's no surprise that airline stocks are seeing the worst of the selling today. The XAL index is down more than 3.4%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:08:01 PM
TRIN 1.17 ... just tested 1.25 again.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  3:07:27 PM
It's probably surprising that the oil and oil service stocks have been depressed all month even as crude oil climbs to new highs on a daily basis. The current logic seems to be that investors are selling oil stocks and locking in profits from the previous run up because the current rise in oil prices is seen as temporary. Of course the question of an oil "bubble" has been much debated.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:07:18 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for Intel (INTC) $21.75 -2.11% .... to $21.85.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:01:11 PM
In addition to any Keltner support that might be approaching, the OEX now retests the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, at 529.57 and 530.63, respectively. That 100-ema is roughly congruent with the lower Keltner line that is the target of the OEX's decline as long as it maintains five-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines currently at 531.22-531.31.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:58:48 PM
Ticker headlines:



More details from Reuters at this Link.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:56:53 PM
So far, the OEX is finding resistance at the Keltner lines now near 531.40. This is what bears want to see, but if that resistance breaks, they want five-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines now at 531.84-532.12. Bulls want five-minute closes above the mid-channel line, now at 532.12.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:55:53 PM
Intel (INTC) $21.80 -1.89% ... RED #3.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:53:48 PM
Former support is holding as resistance here at 33.55 QQQ.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:51:36 PM
Sept. Oil Futures 30-minute delayed .... intra-day with recent DAILY Pivots and current WEEKLY Pivots, with WEEKLY R2 looking to be today's settlement. Link

Implications are for stocks to close at lows of the session.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:49:24 PM
A wavelet bounce is in progress here, and it's getting good traction off the break to 33.41 QQQ. If bulls can get above 33.55 and 33.60, there will be a chance to generate a fresh short cycle upphase.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:48:46 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) to 1.50 and break even
I think we have a good play here but it could just as easily turn into a runaway freight train.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:46:50 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... for Intel (INTC) $21.85 -1.71% .... to $21.96.

TRIN 1.14 ....

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:41:47 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long again... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) @ 1.50, stop 1.30

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:41:25 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 1.80 and break even

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:40:04 PM
Intel Option chain October $20 puts (NQVD) $0.55 now jumps to top of volume list at 3,402 contracts. Could be a roll-over.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:39:36 PM
Although I thought there would be either a consolidation-type day previous to a pullback or an actual pullback (perhaps into another shoulder of possible inverse H&S's on some indices' daily charts), mentioned in last night's Wrap and my first OEX-related post today, I thought the range would be smaller today or else that the indices would print high-wave candles typical of indecision. If markets bounce off support this afternoon, those small-bodied candles might still be possible, but they're not going to have much of an upper body, which is going to make them look more like springs than like candles typical of indecision. Still, it could be that the pullback into a possible right shoulder might be beginning without markets remaining indecisive for more than a few hours. We'll have to see what the day's end brings us, but there are sure some possibilities for tweezer-top candles today.

The OEX rises toward Keltner resistance, at 531.50 and then again near 532.25.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:37:25 PM
Intel (INTC) $21.84 ... session low $21.82.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:37:00 PM
View of the 30 minute Naz futures chart at this Link showing the 30 min cycle downphase progressing as discussed this morning. Depending on the quality of the decline for the next hour, support at 33.20-.24 continues to look good as the short cycle oscillators are entering oversold territory here.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:35:24 PM
Trin 1.24 .... QCharts' DAILY R2. If further upside, the WEEKLY Pivot 1.61 target.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:32:56 PM
33.50 held briefly but is cracking now, with a session low of 34.44 for QQQ printing now. Look for acceleration on a break below 33.38 as the 30 min channel begins to roll over.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:29:05 PM
The OEX has set up a breakout situation on the five-minute chart, or perhaps I should say breakdown situation. The OEX has broken below one channel line, setting up a possible move down to the support of the next one, unless it can manage to bounce quickly. A river of resistance lines are trying to converge near 532-532.50, and the OEX is going to have a tough time getting through them unless it bounces quickly.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:28:23 PM
TRIN 1.14 ...

INTC $21.88. Couldn't quite get a 5-minute interval close above DAILY Pivot.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:26:40 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:24:28 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) to 1.80 and break even

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:23:56 PM
Intel Option Chain .... at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:23:45 PM
Caught on the telephone.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:22:26 PM
Buyers definitely came in @ SPX 1087.50 but the bounce is weak so far.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:21:19 PM
TRIN 1.09 .... could rise to 1.25 into the close.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:20:31 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... on Intel (INTC) $21.92 -1.35% to break even. Here's updated intra-day chart at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:19:42 PM
Bulls are making a valiant effort here. If MACD can cross back up we may have a decent play. There's plenty of time left for either side to grab the ball and run.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:19:26 PM
Unless that was a bad tick, which I don't believe it was, a slew of stops just got run on the spike to 49.452 for Nymex crude: Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:17:02 PM
02:11 Market Watch at this Link

INDU below 10,025, while SOX.X testing its DAILY Pivot.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:16:44 PM
We're VERY oversold at this point... that doesn't mean we can't become even more oversold, but it looks like a decent risk/reward to me. We will cinch up stops to break even ASAP (if we get the chance)

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:16:25 PM
Volume has picked up. QQQ is testing 33.50 as I type. There's confluence support to 38.38, but the cycle channels have yet to rollover yet.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  2:15:48 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) are failing at the top of their descending channel... or is that a BIG bull flag pattern?

Here's a chart: Link

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:12:17 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPQHR (SPX Aug 1090 call) @ 1.80, stop 1.60
We should be find some support right around the 1087.50 area

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:10:33 PM
30 min channel support is lined up with 60 min support at 33.50. The session lows across the board make this feel like an imminent washout, but I expect that level to be good for at least a pause.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:09:42 PM
Intel (INTC) $21.88 -1.48% .... slips below RED #2.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:09:12 PM
OEX support did not hold, setting up a possible downside target of 529.60, unless the OEX manages closes above 532.29.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:09:08 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,088.53 ..

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  2:07:54 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 1.30, -13.33%

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:06:44 PM
H&S's and inverse H&S's everywhere. Here's a possible H&S on the OEX five-minute chart: Link When I see these competing formations (we have a confirmed inverse H&S, too), I anticipate that trading might be choppy since bulls and bears are battling.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:05:39 PM
Another session high for bonds, with TNX down to 4.213%, as QQQ breaks below 33.60 briefly, currently 33.61. Session lows are 33.55.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:03:40 PM
Intel (INTC) $21.97 -1.08% ...

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:03:17 PM
The OEX's five-minute Keltner channels are showing possible support a little higher than I thought it would converge on the fifteen-minute chart, with the five-minute chart showing that support near 532.30, with the OEX perhaps able to pierce that level, but perhaps also likely to close five-minute periods above it. Then we get to see if resistance holds, if the OEX does bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:03:06 PM
Trin 1.01

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  2:03:02 PM
Oil chart at this Link , session high at 48.50.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  2:00:05 PM
Bearish day trade cancel target alert for Intel (INTC). Here's intra-day chart. Link

Oil "surging" ... let's see what happens.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:58:21 PM
Remember that at about 532, the OEX hits this neckline, certainly a possible bounce point even if the Keltners weren't trying to firm up support there: Link I'm not yet sure if they'll be successful. Yesterday when this neckline was breached, I warned that we're seeing a lot of H&S and inverse H&S targets not met.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  1:50:49 PM
Session high here for ZN bond futures, TNX -1 bp at 4.215%.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:48:19 PM
Fifteen-minute OEX Keltner resistance firms up now near 534. It looks as if support may try to firm up near 532, but if the OEX should swoop down suddenly, that support won't have time to firm.

All should remember that we're in a time period when we often see support or resistance tested. If this dip is quickly met with buying, the big girls and boys will know that there's support under the markets and they can safely send them higher again. If it's not met with buying, they know support is somewhere deeper below, and they'll plumb for that support.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  1:48:11 PM
50-tick GOOG chart at this Link.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  1:46:31 PM
Intel (INTC) $22.04 -0.77% ...

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  1:45:17 PM
TRIN 0.93 ... mid-session high.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  1:44:12 PM
A wavelet downphase wants to bottom here, and if it does (on a break above 33.71, bulls will need to clear 33.81 to stop the ongoing short cycle downphase. A break of 33.81 or 33.64 will be directional if confirmed by followthrough above 33.90 or below 33.55.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:37:01 PM
Here's what the 15-minute Keltner charts suggest now: Unless the OEX can maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line now at 533.60, it's vulnerable down to 532.97 and possibly lower, perhaps to 532, and perhaps even lower than that. This is a day when some elements of technical analysis are not working particularly well, however. Usually, I turn to Keltner charts, but they've been unclear today, too. Note: As I typed, the OEX began dipping toward 532.97.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  1:35:38 PM
Nymex crude 48.175 here, session high of 48.25.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  1:31:58 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 1.50, stop 1.30

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  1:30:36 PM
QQQ Link contunes to chug along below 33.81. A break below 33.64 will invalidate the rising triangle pattern, and below 33.60 sets us up for a retest of the low. This 30 min cycle downphase, in progress since this morning, has gone net nowhere, and the daily cycle buy signals remain intact despite the 15 cent loss for the Qubes. If they can't run em down, the next move should be up- look for confirmation on a break above 33.90.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  1:29:54 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
I think an entry may be close... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call), stand by

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  1:23:49 PM
I'm patiently waiting for reentry into our earlier call play... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call. Hopefully the tight 1-min b-bands on SPX will resolve to the downside... still waiting.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:20:50 PM
The OEX's Keltner channels still aren't giving a clear view. On the fifteen-minute chart, resistance near 534.25 may look a little stronger than nearby support, but on the five-minute chart, support near 533.50 may look a little stronger than nearby resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  1:10:29 PM
TRIN 0.85

Intel (INTC) $22.12

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  1:09:41 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   8/19/200,  1:07:57 PM
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) is also moving East as in Far East with its announcement this morning. The company has purchased a 45% stake in Luoyang Refrigeration Machinery, based in He'nan Province, China. Financial details were not disclosed.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  1:04:37 PM
Retailer Claire's Stores (CLE) is up more than 8% to $25.06 and breaking out to new all-time highs after reporting earnings this morning. The company reported 33 cents a share or 1 cent better than consensus estimates. Revenues climbed more than 15% to $305 million also above estimates. Investors are also encouraged by CLE's Q3 guidance, which is above analysts' expectations.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:00:39 PM
After breaking out of the triangle shown in the chart linked to my 12:39 post, the OEX has just slid down along the top trendline that had formerly served as resistance. It hasn't gone much of anywhere, hanging around near the apex of that triangle. This is just one of those tough periods, whether hours or days, we have to get through to get to the next good trading opportunity. So far, my scenario for the day is working out except for the limited gain I expected this morning, and I'm glad that I had that scenario in mind. Even if it hadn't worked out, though, it's good to form a scenario and then test the action against that scenario. If something begins happening that doesn't match the scenario, you know your outlook for the day was flawed or that there are forces at work that you didn't understand, or that a trend might have changed, and you can take appropriate action. Sometime, that appropriate action would be a decision to stay out until you understand what was going on.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:57:32 PM
Sounds like we're going to hit $50.00 a barrel by the end of the month.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:57:04 PM
Nymex crude update at this Link . Currently trading 48.075.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:55:29 PM
QQQ continues to slide sideways below 33.81 resistance, but on a wavelet basis it's squeezing higher in what looks like a small rising triangle over the past hour. If so, a break above 33.81 should see a fast move to 33.87 and to rising 30 min channel resistance at 33.94. Link

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:55:13 PM
Hmm... Navistar (NAV) reported earnings that beat estimates by 5 cents and guided higher for the rest of the year but shares are trading lower. Actually NAV is painting a very bearish engulfing candlestick. NAV -6.6% to $33.32.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:54:16 PM
I honestly did not mean to offend those who have suffered from Hurricane Charley's wrath in my 12:34 post, and had added my disclaimer in that post. My brother happened to be situated so that he didn't get the wrath of the storm, but I was feeling grateful that happened, not dismissive of a storm that killed many. As I mentioned to a reader, I've lived in an area where hurricanes hit, too, and I know what they can do. I've been rousted as a child from my bed in the middle of the night to flee when my volunteer-fireman-father got notice on his radio that a hurricane had switched paths and was headed for us, getting quickly dressed while my father ran from house to house, waking neighbors and warning them to get out before storm surge kept us from evacuating, driving into the storm as it began to come ashore, driving home days later, not sure if we had a house left or not. Happened more than once in my childhood. I'm sorry if my remarks appeared offensive and if that disclaimer wasn't enough of a disclaimer.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:53:57 PM
Took a few minutes to watch the storm. GOOG chart update at this Link

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:52:08 PM
Amazon.com (AMZN) is making a move into China by purchasing Joyo.com for $72 million. Joyo.com is China's largest online retailer of books, music and videos. (-AP)

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:47:57 PM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 389.11 +0.54% .... session high ad DAILY R1 just ahead at 389.44.

Home Depot (HD) $36.75 +1.99% .... right at its DAILY R2

Wal-Mart (WMT) $54.70 +0.44% .... right at its DAILY R1

Computers are hard at work today.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:45:38 PM
Beleaguered software stock SEBL is up more than 5% to $7.77 after a broker upgrades the stock to "out perform" this morning. You'll notice that SEBL is bouncing from the bottom of its descending channel. Here's a chart: Link

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  12:44:44 PM
Keene CCI on the 1-min SPX chart just printed a reading over +300 so I'm guessing we go down before we go higher.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:42:24 PM
Bearish day trade update alert .... for Intel (INTC) $22.09 -0.58%.

Looking at the action in the Intel (INTC) most active options, where the Sep. $22.50 puts trade ($1.10 :vol 1,862) and Sept. $22.50 calls trade ($0.70 :vol 1,661).

Right now, this may suggest a Friday settle at $22.30 and I'm starting to think a bearish intra-day target of DAILY S1 (21.62) isn't going to be achievable, and that DAILY Pivot $21.93 may be "max downside."

As such, I'm lowering stop to $22.20, and raising the bearish target to $21.93.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:41:00 PM
AT&T (T) seems to be embracing the VoIP technology by announcing 21 new markets for the service.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  12:40:47 PM
That last little spike would have made a nice short scalp play but you would have had to be faster than a Starbucks gerbil to grab it.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:39:43 PM
Looks as if the OEX just broke through this triangle to the upside: Link Does that mean anything? I'm not sure on a day like today. (Note: As I prepared the post, the OEX turned right back down, as shown on the chart.) I expected tough trading conditions that wouldn't have tempted me, and that's what we're seeing so far.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:39:05 PM
Google (GOOG) is up 20.5% to $102.50 now.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:38:17 PM
Copper prices are higher today up more than 1% to $1.28 a lb. This is lifting Phelps Dodge (PD) back above the $80.00 mark.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:36:17 PM
Jon has already mentioned the 3.4% rally in the XAU gold & silver index. The index is hitting new 3 1/2 month highs and nearing overhead horizontal resistance at 95.00 and its simple 200-dma. The XAU also has resistance at a descending trendline near 95 (stretch a line across the January top to the April top and extend it).

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:34:50 PM
Jonathan, my brother lives just outside Tampa, Florida. From his description of what he experienced from Hurricane Charley, you're having worse weather. Of course, we did grow up on Texas' hurricane-prone (at least when we were growing up) Gulf Coast, so he may have been downplaying the experience. This is not to minimize what the Florida residents living nearer Hurricane Charley's actual landfall site experienced, but my brother characterized his experience last week as one typical of a rainy day.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:32:53 PM
Apple Computer (AAPL) is down more than 2% to $31 after announcing a recall of 28,000 batteries used in its 15-inch PowerBook G4 Laptops. The batteries are said to pose a fire threat if they overheat.

AAPL says it is not "financially responsible" for this recall since the batteries are made by LG Chem Ltd of S. Korea.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:28:17 PM
JPM has started Celgene (CELG) with an "over weight" this morning and shares are pushing higher through resistance at $54.00 and its simple 40 and 50-dma's. A move over $55 might be a trigger to target a run toward major resistance at $60.00.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:26:08 PM
JPM starts coverage on NPSP with an "under weight" this morning after the stock has broken out above resistance at the $20.00 mark, its 40 and 50-dma's, and the top of its descending channel. Shares dipped this morning but traders are buying the dip.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:25:15 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes to check the windows and batten down the hatches. Still raining here.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  12:23:42 PM
GOOG is over 100.00, currently printing 101.50, just off HOD @ 101.97. I wouldn't touch this one with somebody else's 10 foot pole.

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:23:01 PM
I see that the CBOE, ISE and PHLX exchanges all plan to offer GOOG options but they don't when they will be available.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:18:52 PM
The OEX is trying to round over into a lower high on the five-minute chart, but I'll believe it when I see a lower five-minute low. The five-minute Keltner chart suggests a slightly greater likelihood that the OEX will rise than that it will fall, but the 15-minute chart shows resistance trying to gather overhead, so the evidence is mixed as it has been most of the day. I thought today might present a difficult trading environment because of a possible smaller range for the day and because I anticipated some kind of candle indicative of indecision for many indices. The day is still young, but the difficult-trading part of the scenario is certainly working out.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:17:41 PM
Nymex crude is trading 47.975 here. Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:16:23 PM
Updated TRIN chart with QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels at this Link

  James Brown   8/19/200,  12:12:29 PM
One of my alarms just went off.... Costco Wholesale (COST) has broken through short-term (six-week) resistance at $42.00. There is some resistance at the June highs near $43.00 but this could be a bullish candidate.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:12:19 PM
QQQ took a dip with the release of the Philly fed data, bouncing from above 33.64 and is back to 33.74. The short cycles remain in a weak upphase, the 30 minute cycle in a weak downphase, and the 30 min channel remains flat. The key range remains 33.64-33.87 QQQ with ongoing chop within it.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  12:10:26 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
I'd love a chance to buy back SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) in the SPX 1090-1091 area but I'm not sure if it will get that low... and if it does I'm not sure what the chart will look like. Right now I'm looking for a second CCI reading of -200 or thereabouts to get long again, but we'll just watch for now. If we get such a reading and it coincides with SPX near the lower b-band on the 1-min chart I'll probably issue another long signal. The 11:08 swing low @ SPX 1090.54 looks like a good entry area, assuming all the ducks are lined up correctly, but TA isn't all it's "quacked up" to be, so we need to be careful.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:09:14 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:05:34 PM
Details of the Philly Fed at this Link .

Activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to expand, according to firms surveyed for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Most of the survey's broad indicators of activity, however, suggest a more moderate pace of growth than in July. Indicators for new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive but fell from their readings in July. Firms continue to report a rise in prices for inputs and for their own finished goods. Despite the decline in the survey's indicators for current activity, expectations for general growth over the next six months remain very positive.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  12:01:23 PM
12:00pm U.S. AUG. PHILLY FED 28.5 VS 36.1 IN JULY

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:00:30 PM
Google (GOOG) $98.64 +16% .... first 5-minute bar was from $95.00 to $100.51.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:59:53 AM
Chart of GOOG's open at this Link.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:58:53 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 2.00, +42.86%
We may buy this one back... stand by

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:57:19 AM
Make that 96 for GOOG...

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  11:56:44 AM
Right now, the Keltner channels are not giving a clear picture as to whether resistance or support is stronger. The OEX has spent the day challenging these 120-minute 100/130-ema's, seeing if they'll hold as support: Link So far, they are, but it could still go either way.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:56:01 AM
Watching the first GOOG trades here, dropping from 100 to 98 in a few seconds.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:52:12 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:51:10 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops again... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) to 2.00

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:47:54 AM
100-tick 2-day QQQ chart at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:45:34 AM
Huge rainstorm just erupted here- looks like Hurricane Charley's just come to town. I'm sitting pretty with my new battery backup system, but in the event of a fullblown blackout, I'll only have about 6 minutes or so of power.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:44:29 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Conservative traders can exit this play right now... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 2.00 for a +42.85% gain.
I'm leaving the official stop @ 1.80

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:34:34 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:33:41 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops again... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) to 1.80
We just made up for the earlier -25% loss and then some

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:33:09 AM
There's fib resistance at 33.81 QQQ, and declining 30 min resistance lined up with yesterday's high at 33.87. A break of 33.81 will get a new short cycle upphase started and set us up for another run at the day highs.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  11:30:46 AM
The OEX is now facing Keltner resistance just overhead, but it's not clear whether this resistance will be strong enough to hold the OEX back. Meanwhile, on the five-minute chart, Keltner suppor tries to converge near 532.90-533, but it's not yet firm, either. It's kind of a mixed-up day. So far, with the exception of the early follow-through on yesterday's gains, it fits my scenario for a smaller-range day today, but the day is far from over. I expected difficult trading conditions for today and perhaps through tomorrow. I didn't expect that whopping Fed repo, though, and I don't know what it means. When something seems off kilter, I'm wary of conclusions or investments in the market.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:26:06 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) to 1.60
Let's lock in a +14% gain while we have the chance

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:25:01 AM
Nymex crude continues to drift lower off the high, last trade at 47.77. Chart at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:16:28 AM
The 30 min cycle downphase is still in progress as the so-far ineffectual short cycle oscillators begin to turn up from above oversold territory on QQQ. 30 min channel resistance is down to 33.88, support stabilizing at 33.48. The 30 min cycle should continue to yield a net sideways move, but we've seen these downphases abort early for the past week. A print above 33.90 remains the test, while below 33.60 for longer than 10 minutes should give the downphase some price traction for a change.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  11:14:38 AM
eBay (EBAY) $80.11 +0.21% .... pretty good little pop here. Move above $80.44 gets stock above some formidable resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  11:13:33 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  11:04:47 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  11:03:59 AM
The OEX 532.90 Keltner resistance did not hold and now I'm wondering if all bets are not off due to that Fed cash infusion. Keltner lines are trying to rearrange themselves now, but the break through that resistance separated some lines that had been gathering overhead, as if the Keltner lines, too, have changed their mind(s?).

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  11:01:52 AM
I think we caught the (short-term) bottom with that last call play but we're having to scratch and claw our way back for every millimeter of ground. It would be nice to see an impulsive looking GREEN candle for a change.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:01:51 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  11:01:10 AM
Nymex crude oil chart at this Link.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:58:41 AM
The TRAN has turned down today and has now dropped below both the 50-dma and (just below) the 30-dma, but the day is young and the TRAN is capable of moving fast in either direction when it gets going.

  Jane Fox   8/19/200,  10:54:45 AM
DAteline WSJ - The New York Stock Exchange has presented regulators with a blueprint of what it says will be a new, more-efficient trading structure. But some of the detail lines are smudged.

The Big Board's proposal, which is being reviewed by the Securities and Exchange Commission, leaves unanswered substantial questions about the role of technology and the privileges of the floor brokers and the "specialist firms" that oversee the buying and selling of stocks. The 67-page filing presents ground-breaking solutions to complaints about slowness and unnecessary human intervention at the 212-year-old institution. But it is still difficult to say exactly how stocks will be traded -- and how investors will fare.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:54:06 AM
QQQ's short cycle downphase continues to do battle with 33.64, with a session low of 33.55. A wavelet bounce on declining volume is in progress, and there's a small bullish divergence on the short cycle Macd histogram. But the broader 30 min channel continues to point south, support currently 33.48.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:54:06 AM
Just noticed Jonathan's posts about the huge net adds the Fed made today. Bears, be careful. We don't know where that money will go to work, but it could be put to work on equities. Keep that in the back of your mind as you make decisions. Sometimes on days when there are large amounts like this, we see breakdowns begin to occur, but no follow-through on those breakdowns, and markets instead shoot up. Just adds to the usual opex week worries, doesn't it?

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:50:16 AM
Gold continues to hang just below 410, with the miners pushing higher, HUI up 3.47% to 203.69, XAU up 3.41% to 93.49.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:48:31 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) to 1.40 and break even

As Keene noted earlier the index is clawing it's way up slowly on the bounces but the moves down are impulsive. I don't want to get caught in another impulsive move down. 1-min MACD has crossed back up and we have a pretty strong looking buy signal on the shortest timeframe chart but bulls need to get things going to the upside here quickly or bears may return for a second helping.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:47:19 AM
I'm back, and it appears that my "possible small follow-through on Wednesday's gains in the early session, followed by a pullback or some other action that produces a candle indicative of indecision, or followed by an actual pullback" theory was slightly flawed, as markets never saw that small follow-through. As I mentioned in last night's Wrap, events in Venezuela, Russia, or Iraq could change the outlook, and overnight events in Iraq appear to have done that. I also cautioned traders to watch for the BIX to fall back inside its megaphone-shaped orthodox broadening formation, and it has done that.

The OEX's fifteen-minute Keltner chart shows vulnerability down to 528.33, but first that charts shows that support may gather near 531-531.50. The five-minute chart shows that same converging support. On the five-minute chart, nearest resistance tries to converge at 533, then at 533.64 and stronger at 534.30. The fifteen-minute chart echoes some of those levels, with first resistance trying to converge near 533.60, too, and with stronger resistance near 534.60. The five-minute chart suggests that a bounce could begin now (Note: began as I typed), get turned back at 532.90, and then the OEX could fall toward 531.50.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:45:08 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,035.66 -0.47% .... session low has been.... 10,026.66.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:44:14 AM
TRIN 0.88 .... above QCharts' DAILY R1 (0.84)

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:41:59 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 1.40, stop 1.20

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:30:58 AM
QQQ is testing 33.64 support again, and the shape of the short cycle oscillators suggests that it will get broken. Look for prints below 33.60 to confirm it (session spike low).

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:30:01 AM
Day trade short alert .... Intel (INTC) $22.06 bid, stop $22.25, target $21.63

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:29:26 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 2.00, -25.00%
That was a bad play. I should have stuck to my downward bias for today.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:26:44 AM
Nymex crude update at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:25:36 AM
100-tick 2-day QQQ update at this Link.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:21:32 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Lower your stops... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) to 2.00

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:21:27 AM
New session and record high for Nymex crude at 48.075.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:18:54 AM
The repo numbers check out. That large net add should give the markets a positive bias today, and is a 180-degree departure from the draining bias the Fed had been showing this week. Given the orientation lower in the 30 min and short cycles this morning, the Fed's action increases my expectation for a weak/corrective downphase from these cycles.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:18:00 AM
Support is holding (so far) and SPX 1-min MACD has turned back up. If we can get a bullish cross we may have a good trade with the SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call). If we get a bearish kiss it may be over in a hurry.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:16:42 AM
I'm double checking my math here, but it looks like the Fed has just added 20.25B in various repos today against 10.5B expiring for a colossal 9.75B net add. I'm verifying it now.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:10:44 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:08:59 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exiting now... SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.90, +3.05%

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  10:05:01 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call) @ 2.50, stop 2.20

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:03:26 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  10:02:39 AM
Gold is holding its gains, up 2.90 at 409.70, while HUI is up 2.88% at 202.53, XAU +2.8% at 92.94.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  9:55:13 AM
QQQ's bounce has yet to touch the last short cycle or 30 min cycle high at 33.87, and this so-far lower high fits with a bearish-corrective interpretation of the current 30 min and short cycles. However, bears will need to get things moving to the downside to keep the short cycle downphase alive- so far it's resulting in a net sideways move off yesterday's high range. A break below 33.64 for longer than 5 minutes is the first step. On the other hand, an upside break of 33.90 would convert the short cycle downphase to an upphase, and threaten the longer 30 min cycle downphase.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:54:16 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  9:51:06 AM
I may have hesitated too long on the call play. We could have gotten in right after the bell for 2.10... now it's printing 2.20/3.40 and I don't want to chase it with an economic report due out in 9 minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:46:11 AM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 385.68 -0.34% .... DAILY Pivot at 384.79 provides early support.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:45:17 AM
Hot Topic (HOTT) $15.80 +8.97% ....

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  9:41:44 AM
33.64 QQQ held on the first test, taking a wavelet bounce from yesterday's confluence top. But unless we see a break of 33.87 QQQ, the short cycle downphase should set up another downside test below which I expect both it and the 30 min cycle downphase to strengthen. Bulls need to break 33.87- call it 33.90, in order to put those intraday downphases on hold.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:38:30 AM
TRIN chart with QCharts' daily pivots at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  9:37:58 AM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
We may try a long play... SPQHS (SPX Aug 1095 call), stand by

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:34:54 AM
TRIN opened 1.25, trades 0.73.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  9:32:50 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch your stops up... SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) to 16.40 and break even

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  9:31:58 AM
New session lows out of the gate, with QQQ testing 33.64 support here.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:31:39 AM
Swing trade bullish exit alert .... Research in Motion (RIMM) $59.90. ($+1.42, or 2.43%).

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:29:48 AM
Swing trade raise bullish stop alert .... for Research in Motion (RIMM) to $59.80. Trading $60.07 in pre-market.

  Jane Fox   8/19/200,  9:19:21 AM
Dateline WSJ - Google Inc. may have needed Wall Street after all.

The Web-search giant's quest to reform the Street through an unconventional initial public offering backfired, as Google yesterday sharply cut the size of its stock sale and then set an IPO price far lower than it had anticipated: $85 a share.

A combination of Google's own hubris, stubborn investors and a deteriorated technology market transformed what was billed as the hottest IPO of this short century into a rather messy affair. The auction closed late yesterday afternoon after the Securities and Exchange Commission declared the IPO effective. After reviewing the bids, Google late yesterday set the $85 price. That was 37% lower than the top of the $108-to-$135 it had declared to regulators last month as the expected range.

The price "says that a type of auction going out to the public like this is a failure because it raised uncertainties to such a level that people backed away," said Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, an auction theorist at Columbia University's business school in New York. By creating uncertainty, it "got Google a worse price than they could have gotten using a standard mechanism," he said. Mr. Rhodes-Kropf had himself bid last week, at $120 a share, but he revised that yesterday to $95.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  9:15:36 AM
The weakness this morning is causing another rollover in the 30 min cycle oscillators for the NQ (QQQ proxy using overnight data), this time from deep in overbought territory. That suggests that a break of support would have implications not just for the short cycles (which are in a new downphase) but for the longer 30 and 60 min cycles. A break of 33.64 QQQ will open the door to a retest of the 33.38-.44 support, below which a new 30 min cycle downphase will be confirmed and should yield 3-6 hours of weakness. If, however, the young daily cycle upphase means business, that weakness is likely to be sideways/ corrective, and I'll be looking for support at 33.33, 33.24 and 33.20 QQQ. If the selling is sharp from the cash open, then that corrective/sideways guess is wrong, and I'll expect a more meaningful downside move.

  Mark Davis   8/19/200,  9:14:41 AM
Good Morning... the price (and discussion of the price) of crude seems to be weighing on the market again this morning. SPX futures are currently printing 1092.40, -2.10, so it looks like we may have the opportunity to lower stops on our overnight put play, SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) to break even right after the opening bell. If we can then we probably will, especially with Leading Economic Indicators being released 30 min. into the trading session.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  8:41:31 AM
Session high for bonds here, with TNX down .8 bps to 4.219%.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  8:41:07 AM
I will be gone for an appointment this morning, and won't return until after the open. I'll be back as soon as possible. I've posted information on Asian/European markets at 6:52, and on the OEX at 22:49. The lack of a resolution in to the situation in Iraq and the resultant rise in crude may make it difficult for the OEX to follow-through on yesterday's gains in early trading, but the markets will be busy reacting to various economic releases, too, so it's difficult to judge.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  8:34:04 AM
Equities have bounced slightly on the data, with QQQ currently down .11 at 33.72. Gold is at a session high of 409.70, next resistance 412-414 confluence, as is oul at 47.925.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  8:30:52 AM
Ticker headlines:


8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS OFF 2,500 TO 337,000



  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  7:59:20 AM
We await the 8:30 release of initial claims for the week ending Aug. 14, est. 335K, prior 333K.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/19/200,  7:48:31 AM
NT has just released its Q1 report, announcing that it's cutting 10% of its workforce and that its audit committee has uncovered accounting errors. The indicesdropped on the news and are printing new lows, with ES trading 1091, NQ 1056, YM 10050 and QQQ -.13 to 33.70. Gold is up 1.70 to 408.50, silver +.02 to a session high of 6.85, bonds up .046 to 112.7969, and crude oil up .40 to 47.675.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  6:52:31 AM
Good morning. After Network Appliances and some Japanese companies raised earnings forecasts, the Nikkei opened just above the 10,850 resistance and spent most of the morning session testing it to see if it would hold as support. It did, and the Nikkei climbed through most of the afternoon session, closing higher by 129.27 points or 1.20%, at 10,903.53.

Tech stocks gained. In addition, Wal-Mart signaled its interest in investing in troubled retailer Daiei, with the news sending the retailer 27% higher before hitting its limit-up figure. If the state-run IRC gets involved in Daiei's restructuring, retailer Ito-Yokado also signaled that it might be interested in helping Daiei, and retailer Aeon has also indicated its interest. Aeon and Ito-Yokado also gained, as did another retailer, Seiyu, ahead of its after-the-close earnings report. That company, 38% owned by Wal-Mart, reported a narrowing H1 loss from the year-ago level., but mentioned slow sales and early retirement costs. The sale of securities investments helped it narrow that loss. In addition to retailers, the financial sector was in the news, with UFJ deciding to sell an affiliate to the U.K.'s HSBC Holdings, HSBC Holdings reportedly withdrawing from bidding for Japanese consumer finance group Takefuji, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group reportedly still making plans for what has been characterized as a hostile bid for UFJ. Performance was mixed in the group.

Other Asian markets traded mostly higher, with tech stocks mostly performing well. The Taiwan Weighted gained 3.23%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.98%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.87%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.37%. China's Shanghai Composite was one of the three losing bourses in Asia, declining 1.31%.

Currently, most European bourses trade higher. Insurance stocks led the bourses higher after better-than-expected earnings from Zurich Financial Services but techs performed well, too. Aegon was another insurance stock posting gains in early trading, also having received an upgrade to a neutral rating from its former under-perform rating at Credit Suisse First Boston. Semi-related stocks ASML and Infineon posted gains in early trading. Oil companies also gained. This morning, a French official quantified the effect that rising crude costs could have on the French economy. He said that if crude went to $50.00/barrel and stayed there, France's GDP growth would be reduced by one point.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has climbed 23.10 points or 0.53%, to 4,378.30. The CAC 40 has climbed 22.75 points or 0.64%, to 3,564.23. The DAX has climbed 25.35 points or 0.68%, to 3,751.85.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:49:00 PM
I will be away for an appointment tomorrow morning at the open, but will return as soon as possible. OEX traders might follow Mark's SPX-related posts for guidance until I return--and even after I return! Congratulations to Mark for his winning record over the last weeks.

If you've read my Market Wrap for Wednesday, you know what my best-guess scenario is for Thursday: a possible small follow-through on Wednesday's gains in the early session, followed by a pullback or some other action that produces a candle indicative of indecision, or followed by an actual pullback. For the OEX, that might mean a move up to 536-537 and then a stall, pullback, or tight-range trading that produces some kind of candle that's indicative of indecision. This conclusion is based on the tendency of tight-range days to follow big-range days, especially when a resistance zone has been approached; the tendency of the SPX (and sometimes, by extension, the OEX) to get pinned to a certain number after midday Thursday on an opex week; the presence of a descending trendline at about 537, a trendline that perhaps serves as the neckline for a potential inverse H&S; and daily and weekly Keltner resistance gathering from the point of Wednesday's close up to the 537 area. The daily chart shows that the Keltner resistance could be pushed up toward 540-541 if the OEX shoves hard enough, but I wouldn't be surprised to see such a test, if it occurred, or even a test of 537, followed by a pullback or stalling. Test early action to see if it meets that scenario, as I will be doing, too, as soon as I return.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  8:13:50 PM
Big test for the retailers is underway. Here's S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 387.02 +1.13%, where I've adjusted retracement to conventional. Last time they were here they got whacked lower. Link

Home Depot (HD) at this Link gets a close above 200-day SMA, but can tie in $36 resistance with RLX.X.

Wal-Mart (WMT) at this Link and lags the move, but everone's eyeballing that 200-day SMA right now.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  6:04:19 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   8/18/200,  5:59:09 PM
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