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  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  7:43:44 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  6:52:42 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  5:11:35 PM
QQQ went out at $34.01 +1.00% .... that's rubbing salt in the wound with a penny better than $34 strike.

What I was afraid for with Stillwater Mining (SWC) at $15.00 today.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  4:54:07 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Expiration Note: Reducing cost basis for the SWC Oct. $15 calls (SWC-JC) as Aug. $15 covered calls (SWC-HC) sold for $0.80 expired worthless. Not recorded as a capital gain in profit/loss statement.

Reducing cost basis for the OSTK Sep. $40 calls (QKT-IH) as Aug. $40 covered calls (QKT-HH) sold for $1.00 expired worthless. Not recorded as a capital gain in profit/loss statement.

Today's Activity ....

Expired worthless ... either 10 (for 1,000 shares) or 3 (for $10,000) of the recently "naked" QQQ Aug. $32 puts (QAV-TF). Sold for $0.25 ($+0.25, or 100%). This was against a previously profiled 08/10/04 underlying short in the QQQ at $33.18, which was stopped out at $33.55 on 08/18/04.

Expired worthless ... 2 contracts on the bullish SWK Aug. $45 calls (SWK-HI) bought at $1.40 ($-280.00, or -100%).

The rest of today's profiled day trades, and recap of this weeks trades at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  4:34:54 PM
I just knew it! LOL... have a great weekend.

  Keene Little   8/20/200,  4:28:41 PM
Mark, both actually. I like to make sure I don't get wet. And yes, I do have a mudroom. That's where I hang my hip boots and waders (grin).

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  4:24:53 PM
Linda I think Keene wears either hip boots or chest waders... fess up Keene (grin)
I'll bet he has a "mud room" too... only Northerners know what that is.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  4:22:14 PM
We all know that no one could fill your shoes, Keene. In my case, I know very little about EW theory.

  Keene Little   8/20/200,  4:20:37 PM
Linda, I just caught your comment (3:54). I think you should officially start filling in for me as the EW'er. You've got an eye for this stuff (grin).

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  4:17:48 PM
GOOG closes out the day @ 108.31... right at the lower end of the originally suggested IPO range.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  4:12:36 PM
Recap of Friday's trades (08-20-04)...

SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.40
SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.40, +00.00%
SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) @ 15.80
SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) @ 18.00, +13.92%
SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 16.20
SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.60, -3.70%
SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.20
SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.20, +0.00%
SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 14.80
SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.20, +2.01%
Total gain/loss for Friday = +2.20, +12.23%
Total gain/loss for the week = +10.55, +231.54%
Total gain/loss for the month = +23.80, +396.88%

Have a great weekend everydody!

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  4:09:12 PM
Interesting... a net gain of +1.4 SPX points gave us +74.25% yesterday. Today a net gain of +2.2 SPX points gives us a gain of +12.23%. That's "What a difference a day makes."

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  3:59:53 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert ... for Netease.com (NTES) $34.01 bid.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  3:59:25 PM
Yep. Give a hand to the correlative-fan theory. Of course, this uptrend off yesterday's low was a short-term trend only, so we'll need to take a look at charts to see what comes next.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:59:04 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exiting now... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.20, +2.01%
Better safe than sorry

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  3:56:35 PM
QQQ is pulling back to 34 here, breaking the rising support line at 34.05 for the first time since this morning.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  3:56:11 PM
And there's another break of the OEX's third trendline off the yesterday afternoon low, with that trendline break meaning the end of the short-term trend according to the correlative fan theory. Of course we saw that earlier break that didn't mean much. This one may not, either, but so far, it appears to be working just as expected.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  3:54:20 PM
Keene, does that mean that I'm a EW-er? Smile. (See Keene's 15:52 post on the Futures side.)

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:52:54 PM
Should we hold this short over the weekend??? I really don't know (although I'll know before the close... &:>) On the one hand this rally certainly seems overdone and is stopping right at SPX 1100. On the other hand what if the situation in Iraq resolves itself over the weekend and oil prices head lower? Anybody have an Advil?

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:47:56 PM
There's another CCI print over +200. The last three have been good for -1, -1.5 and -1 SPX points, respectively. Let's see what happens this time.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  3:44:38 PM
Ouch, bears out there must be hurting. Do I dare mention how bearish-rising-wedge-ish the OEX's climb looks, though? We know these wedges frequently no longer resolve as they "ought" to, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a further breakout this afternoon, but that sure does not look like a healthy climbing pattern.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:44:27 PM
Here we go again... SPX 1100 gives way. Let's hope there's some voltage in that electric fence... not holding my breath though.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  3:42:15 PM
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has finally broken out above resistance at the $50.50 after a month of consolidating under this level. This might be a bullish entry point.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:37:07 PM
Is this the old "frog in boiling water" syndrome? Put a frog in boiling water and he will immediately jump to safety, but put him in cold water, gradually increase the heat, and he will sit there and boil to death.
Would I normally short SPX with TRIN @ .53? Not a chance!

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  3:36:46 PM
Now the TRAN has reversed almost all yesterday's losses, after yesterday erasing almost all the previous day's gains. Sigh. This looks similar to the TRAN's pattern in late July and early August, as it had traded up to the top of its descending regression channel, except that this time the price swings are even wider. Sometimes that's indicative of volatile trading prior to a breakout. Well, we knew that anyway, right? Either it's going to break out above the descending regression channel or it's going to turn down within it. Guess it could just trade sideways, but that seems the least likely choice of the three. I'm thinking the TRAN might see at least one thrust up toward 3100, testing the driving conditions up there, while the big boys and girls see if it gets slapped immediately lower again or not. Maybe early next week or maybe even this afternoon. The TRAN is at 3092.17 as I type.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:26:50 PM
It looks like I'm going to get cooked on this one again. Link
We've had bearish MACD divergence for over an hour but price just keeps on going up. Maybe the market will "come to it's senses" but I've discovered that the market can remain stupid much longer than I can remain solvent.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  3:25:40 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $61.78 +4.44% ... "Max pain" and then some.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  3:24:50 PM
Daily view of the Naz futures at this Link . The shape of the oscillators suggests that it will get cleared next week.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  3:23:01 PM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) alert $9.41 +0.35% ... penny above its 07/27/04 high. Are junk bonds telling us something about the equity markets? The economy? Future price of oil?

Bidder up at $9.39 with offer $9.50.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  3:21:02 PM
The OEX climbed right back above that third ascending trendine as if it didn't mean for anyone to notice that it had momentarily slipped below it. It's continued cilmbing the trendline since, getting ever closer to a breakout on the five- and fifteen-minute Keltner channels. It's being pressured up again 536.50-536.85 resistance on the 15-minute charts, squeezed between that resistance and that third trendline. One or the other has to break soon.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:19:51 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short again... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 14.80, stop 14.30

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  3:16:47 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $30.04 +0.06% .... bugger has been hovering at August "Max Pain" of $30.00 all week.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:13:33 PM
Oh man! NOW it goes down.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  3:13:31 PM
The post-earnings rally in HAR has now exceeded $13.00 and shares have broken out to new highs above $93.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  3:12:33 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.20 and break even
Sheesh! I should have grabbed that long when I was thinking about it.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  3:09:32 PM
QQQ 100-tick chart at this Link.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  3:09:20 PM
03:01 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   8/20/200,  3:09:08 PM
While I find it encouraging that the Industrials have been able to hold and build on its breakout back above the 10,000 level I'd be cautious in my trading.

We've mentioned before (in the newsletter) that the Stock Traders Almanac reports that the last week of August has been very bearish for 6 out of the last 7 years. The Dow's average loss during the last five days of August is 4.0%. The S&P's average drop is 3.8% and the NASDAQ's average drop is 3.5%. There's obviously no guarantee it will happen again but this is not a very good record to be buying calls with.

Unfortunately, we need to trade what we see and right now the short-term trend looks bullish. I would just be very careful with my play selection. In my last post I said there were a lot of minor breakouts. There are plenty of stocks also butting up against overhead resistance, providing a nice place to consider new shorts.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  3:05:34 PM
Session high for QQQ here at 34.08. 30 min channel resistance rises to 34.14, 34-34.05 should now be support.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  3:01:43 PM
Speaking of specific stocks I am seeing a lot of minor breakouts today. FO and ROK are just two more examples. Fortune Brands (FO) is pushing through technical resistance at the 40, 50 and 200-dma's near $72. Meanwhile Rockwell Automation (ROK) is pushing to new three-year highs near $38.50.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  3:00:50 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.87 +3.26% ... session high.... $14.93 in past 10-minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:59:14 PM
Netease.com (NTES) $34.04 +1.91% .... intra-day chart with DAILY Pivots and upper 5-MRT. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  2:58:35 PM
Yes, Linda. I've got a headache that's getting worse as well.

Take a look at the daily action in gold. The daily cycle sure is tricky here- wondering if it isn't a terminal move, or building toward a terminal move for the daily cycle upphase. Link

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:58:09 PM
Didn't mean to leave out Jim in that 14:53 post. We all know his contributions.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:56:08 PM
Bullish entry alert .. for Netease.com (NTES) $34.05 +1.90%.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:55:25 PM
Does anyone else feel as if this trading day has been 16 hours long already?

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  2:55:15 PM
What Linda and Mark said.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:53:38 PM
In reference to Mark's 14:47 post about a team effort, I can't tell you how many times I have been thinking along a certain line and then have seen a post Jonathan made about GE or the repo amount for the day, or a post Jane made about the TRIN level, and thought, uh-oh, something is wrong with my thinking here. I remember a time (March 2003, to be specific) when the OEX had a certain downside P&F target and it looked like a certain thing that it was going to hit it, and then Jeff made a post about something the VIX was doing, and the markets turned around as if they'd read what he'd said. I held on for about another month that time, thinking the OEX was surely going to hit that target. . . (grin), but Jeff was right. James keeps us up-to-date on specific stock issues and news that might impact our trades, and Keene gives us an entirely new perspective on the markets. It is a team effort.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:48:10 PM
The OEX has now broken below the third trendline, important in correlative fan theory. If the predicted reaction is to occur, the OEX should drop now and the short-term upward trend should be over. On an opex Friday, one and a quarter hour before the close of trading, I'm sure not going to affirm ahead of time that's going to happen, however. There appears to be little Keltner support just under the OEX, suggesting that it's possible that the OEX could slip lower, but I'm not sure the resistance trying to firm up just above the OEX is strong enough to hold it back, either. (Note: As I typed, the OEX came up to retest that third trendline, which it's doing now.)

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  2:47:25 PM
Jane I've discussed writing a Trader's Corner article with Jim about that very subject. Maybe when he gets back we will revisit the idea.
It should be pointed out that my trading system is very simple, but with a VERY important caveat... I could not possibly do it without the rest of the contributors here, whom I consider much more sophisticated than myself. In other words, it's a TEAM EFFORT, and credit should not be attributed to a single individual.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:46:59 PM
Day trade long setup alert .... Netease.com (NTES) $33.99 +1.76% .... to go long on trade at $34.05, stop $33.85, target $34.85 by the close.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  2:42:58 PM
Oct crude has closed at 46.75, down 1.89% or 90 cents, session low 46.575 printed 3 minutes prior to the 2:30 close.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:41:48 PM
Bearish day trade stop alert CYBX $19.70.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  2:41:30 PM
Jane that points right to the upside target of the potential "continuation" inverse H&S I posted earlier. Link
I'm still thinking Linda's comments re: short covering in crude oil are a distinct possibility and next week may see crude backing off it's highs.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:40:52 PM
I'm reading an article now that suggests the Mehdi fighters still appear to be control of the mosque in Najaf. Those crude traders don't seem to care, do they, perhaps feeling as if the situation will soon be settled if it's not already. Here's the article: Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:38:39 PM
September Crude oil futures (cl04u) 47.95 -1.54% (30-minute delayed) .... DAILY S1.

I can't rememember the last time oil threatened a close at the low on a Friday.

  Jane Fox   8/20/200,  2:38:36 PM
By the way this reader called it Mark's incredible option trading.

  Jane Fox   8/20/200,  2:37:55 PM
Mark, a reader has asked if there is, any material that Mark has written on his techniques to scalping the S&P future options; especially what indicators, to time his entries and exits. How many contracts does he usually trade?

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:35:25 PM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,098.01 , QQQ $34.04.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  2:34:50 PM
The daily cycle has been very bullish this week for equities- those 10-day bullish divergences followed through perfectly.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  2:33:58 PM
Is anybody else tempted to just grab a long and hold it over the weekend? I am.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:33:25 PM
The OEX is dipping now toward the third trendline off yesterday afternoon's low, ready to bounce or to drop. See my 14:09 post for a discussion of the importance of the third trendline under the correlative fan theory. That trendline is now at about 535.37-535.58, depending on how it's drawn.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  2:30:49 PM
QQQ update at this Link . 30 min channel support is up to 33.75, resistance 33.12, but it looks like the price is where "they" want it, and I'd be very surprised to see a significant move from here today. Bonds are similarly pegged, TNX still at a .8 bp loss at 4.219%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:28:42 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $61.03 +3.23% Link .... you've treated bulls well this week. Won't forget you at $62.50 and negating of "head/shoulder top"

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:26:02 PM
The stage is set for the miners ..... $HUI.X 209.72 +2.19% Link .... hasn't quite been able to get a trade at its 200-day SMA 211.80 at this point.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:25:50 PM
The OEX is nudging ever closer to the top of the 535-537 resistance zone from its daily and weekly Keltner charts, with that joining up with historical resistance, too. Intraday Keltner charts don't give many clues as to whether that resistance can stop the OEX, however.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  2:25:36 PM
If you like fill-the-gap type plays check out Cray Inc (CRAY). The stock has broken out over $3.50 and is nearing round-number resistance at $4.00. A break out here could lead a run toward the top of the gap near $5.00.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  2:23:17 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:21:29 PM
The BIX continues to push higher, still using the top trendline of its former orthodox broadening shape as a springboard, as it began doing earlier today.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:18:17 PM
Good observation James at 14:10. Did you see the chart on Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) $14.84 +1.29% Link .

Breadown, running and exhaustion.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:14:21 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... Cyberonics (CYBX) $19.40 +29.7% .... to $19.70.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:13:08 PM
TRIN 0.60 ... session low

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  2:11:21 PM
Session low for Oct. crude here at 46.90, -.75 or -1.57%.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  2:10:14 PM
It's interesting to see the dead-cat bounce in Hewlett Packard (HPQ) turn into a "fill-the-gap" sort of move. The stock just broke through the $18.00 level and its simple 10-dma.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:09:30 PM
Nearest OEX Keltner support is just under the OEX's current position, at 535.41. Resistance lines are at 535.79 and 536.05. However, the correlative fan theory suggests that, if the OEX breaks through an ascending trendline off yesterday afternoon's low, at about 535.16, the OEX might begin to drop.

The correlative fan theory says that when a rally begins, it first forms a too-steep-to-sustain ascending trendline. That's broken, and a more sustainable, but still too steep one forms. That's broken, and a more moderate one is formed. It's when that third trendline is broken that the trend has been reversed, according to the theory. If I've drawn my three trendlines off yesterday afternoon's low correctly, this is the third trendline to form. Of course, it hasn't been broken yet, and this is opex Friday. Next Keltner support beneath that trendline is at 534.52 but firmer support is down at 533.61.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:08:32 PM
"Whack" alert .... CYBX $19.26 +28% ... suddenly "defensive."

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:07:34 PM
Cyberonics (CYBX) $19.60 +31.1% ... those that have a retracement tool.... take a conventional retracement from today's low, to today's current high. See where $19.65 intra-day resistance looks to be coming from at 50% retracement?

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  2:07:26 PM
We now have about 2 hours for the short to work, although it may not go far because of opex, but it's a zero risk play at this point so we can afford to wait. If we get a sudden swoosh down I'll cinch up the stops and try to get back the -4% we lost on the premature short play.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  2:07:06 PM
30 minute NQ futures chart at this Link shows the 300 min stochastic just approaching overbought territory and the Macd on a potential bearish divergence against the higher price high. The ball is still in bulls' hands, but the magnetic pull of the QQQ 34 strike sets us up for distortions in this cycle. Bulls need to see a higher low for the next 30 min cycle downphase, preferably above QQQ 33.87. Given the so-far strong daily cycle upphase within which all this is occurring, the bias remains to the upside.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  2:05:47 PM
Readers can watch FMC for a breakout over resistance at $45.00 as a potential bullish candidate. The P&F chart is bullish with a new buy signal and an $88 target.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  2:05:23 PM
The SOX may be struggling with that 50% retracement of the rally off the October 2002 low, between 386-387, and the bottom of its former regression channel. Thirty and sixty-minute oscillators give inconclusive evidence as to whether it's merely pulling back into a bull flag ahead of a retest of that resistance or rolling down beneath it.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  2:04:11 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   8/20/200,  2:02:23 PM
Intl Flavors (IFF) is breaking out over resistance near $38.50 and hitting new 4 1/2 year highs. This could be a bullish candidate although it may be a better covered call candidate.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  2:01:00 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exiting now... SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) @ 18.00, +13.92%
  James Brown   8/20/200,  1:57:11 PM
The rally in Bank of America (BAC) continues. The stock is up five days in a row with the breakout over $86 and hitting new six-year highs. Interested bulls might want to wait for a dip. The bullish P&F chart points to $104.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:56:20 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) to 15.20 and break even
Timing on that last short was within a few seconds of the top (thanks to Keene)
1-min CCI printed an incredible +420 right at the top... those numbers rarely fail to produce a good short signal

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:51:52 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.20, stop 14.70

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  1:51:14 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... for Cyberonics (CYBX) $19.63 +31.3% .... to $19.80.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  1:50:12 PM
Mark, sounds as if you've locked in a nice profit for that SPX Sept. 1095 call now with your new stop. Congratulations.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:48:40 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out ... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 15.60, -3.84%

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  1:48:18 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $61.00 +3.2% ....

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:45:13 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops again... SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) to 17.30

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  1:41:47 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert .. for Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.90 at the bid!

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  1:41:18 PM
In my 12:37 post, I mentioned that I could still pick out various H&S and inverse H&S formations across several charts, but the fact that we were seeing conflicting formations showed me that market participants might not yet have decided which direction to send the markets. One of those formations was an inverse H&S at the top of the OEX's climb, visible on the 15-minute chart. I don't trust continuation-form regular or inverse H&S's, and there was no bullish divergence as the head was formed. Those factors, coupled with the competing formations, led me not to mention each formation as I saw it, but just to say that there were competing formations. The OEX has now climbed above the neckline of that inverse H&S, now at about 534.85 but climbing slightly, and is consolidating just above the neckline, so the formation may have some relevance. One of these formations is going to meet its upside or downside target one of these days, but I'm still not assured that it's yet time for that to happen. At any rate, I thought I'd mention the formation now, so that you could decide for yourself how you felt about the formation. I'm distrustful at this time.

The OEX is still facing daily Keltner resistance immediately above and then up to 541. Although the smallest channel is trying to slant up on the daily chart, it's slanting up within a path that's generally falling, and so it's likely that resistance could hold, but whether it catches right here, or perhaps closer to 541, I'm not sure. Right here just below 536.15 looks possible, but it's difficult to put a label on how likely that is. The OEX looks more vulnerable to a turn down toward 530 (not necessarily today), perhaps after some more testing of the upper limits than it does to an extended climb, but of course that depends on what you label "extended" and on what time frame it's hit. A climb this afternoon from 535.19 to 541 wouldn't look back if in bullish plays, would it?

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  1:39:18 PM
Rising trendline support for QQQ is up to 33.87 now, former strong resistance that I now expect to be strong support. The short cycle oscillators are toppy, on the verge of trending under the influence of the dominant 30 min cycle upphase. I expect the market markets to pin the Qubes at the 34 level or within a few cents of it- only a few hours left of opex week.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:39:01 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put) @ 16.20, stop 15.60

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  1:31:20 PM
Crude oil trading down .10, up to 47.55 currently.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  1:28:58 PM
Cyberonic (CYBX) 19.45 +30% .... slips to RED #1 here.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:28:42 PM
I'm reluctant to go short here... that quick move was to the downside but didn't go very far (yet) and we're now bouncing off the lower b-band. We could be headed higher here. Wouldn't THAT surprise everyone?

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  1:26:51 PM
Here's where the SPX is with respect to a trendline that's been in place for a little more than a month: Link

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:23:33 PM
SPX 1-min b-bands are pinched very tight. We're probably going to see a swift move here pretty soon.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  1:21:38 PM
The SPX has now met my best guess at the upside target from its break out of the rectangular consolidation pattern at the bottom of the recent decline.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  1:21:12 PM
Gold is holding its gains, up 6.30 at 415.50 currently, with HUI up 2.29% and XAU up 1.91%. The session high for December gold futures was 416.70. Bonds have recovered somewhat, with TNX currently up .8 bps at 4.219%.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:15:05 PM
No illusions Jane... I've "morphed" into an old guy. It is irreversable and my balding gourd rules out any potential for a "headfake".

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  1:13:48 PM
QQQ update at this Link . Rising intraday trendline support is now 33.85., while 30 min channel support has reached 33.64.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:12:25 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Get ready for a "potential" short play to counter our long... SPQUS (SPX Sept 1095 put)

  Jane Fox   8/20/200,  1:11:15 PM
Mark any illusion that you were a yunging (as in young) were dispelled with your reference to Dinah Washington.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  1:09:42 PM
01:05 Market Watch at this Link

Check out QQQ high and TRIN lows

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:09:22 PM
Yesterday a +5 pt move on SPX would have given us +100%... today we get +5%. Where's Dinah Washington? "What a difference a day makes"

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  1:08:36 PM
October crude is trading down .20 on the Nymex to 47.45.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  1:08:03 PM
30 min channel resistance has climbed to 34 here, which lines up with fib resistance at 34.02 as well as confluence going back 3 weeks. 34.80-.90 was stiff resistance, and the next such zone is at 34.00-34.05.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  1:04:57 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) to 16.60
Let's lock in a +5% gain

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  1:03:22 PM
Unfortunately, as a follow-up to Jane's helpful inclusion of information from Iraq, here's a Reuter's story that details some confusion over whether the Iraqi police have actually gained control of the mosque: Link I've been finding conflicting reports since mid-morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  12:59:55 PM
QQQ update at this Link . The break took place on high volume and sets up support at previous resistance of 33.87. NQ futures are trading 1366.5 off a high of 1368.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:59:51 PM
Raise bullish day trade stop alert ... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.56 +2.43% .... to $60.30.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  12:59:35 PM
Linda I really think you may be onto something re: your earlier comments on short covering in crude oil prices. There was an interview on Bloomberg TV about 1/2 hr ago with Jack Falujian(sp?) from CME. He was saying many traders, especially the Europeans, think these high oil prices are unsustainable. He backed up his statement by citing "buying" coming into the markets about the time the European bourses started trading and then a flattening about the time the bourses closed. Personally I think high oil prices are the most important factor at this point in time. The general terror attack risk is diminishing day by day as the Olympics continue without incident and I believe the likelyhood of a terrorist attack at the Republican Convention is minimal (maybe an attack on a soft target that coincides with the Convention, but not AT the convention). Bush should get a boost from the convention which should be bullish for equities and if this is coupled with lower oil prices then "Katie bar the door" (look out above). Link

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  12:56:42 PM
And there goes the spike that the TRIN was predicting. The SOX has broken above the neutral triangle, but now hits the 386-387 level that is the 50% retracement of the rally off the October 2002 low. The OEX breaks higher, but now moves into the 535-537 zone that the weekly and Keltner charts suggest could be problematic.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:55:04 PM
SPX session highs

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:54:35 PM
Trin 0.69

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:54:18 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.50 ... session high and presses Yesterday's highs.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  12:54:02 PM
Add QQQ and NQ futures to the list.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  12:53:43 PM
Session highs for Dow and SPX futures here.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:53:34 PM
QQQ $33.86

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:53:18 PM
Trin alert 0.70 session low

  Jane Fox   8/20/200,  12:52:55 PM
Finally good news out of Iraq
Dateline WSJ - Witnesses said Friday that militiamen loyal to rebel Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have removed their weapons from Imam Ali Shrine in Najaf.

Followers loyal to Mr. Sadr said earlier that they were prepared to hand control of the revered Imam Ali Shrine to top Shiite religious authorities in a bid to end a two-week-old uprising in Najaf. They had been using the shrine, one of the holiest in Shiite Islam, as a hideout while they attacked U.S. and Iraqi forces here.

By Friday evening, militants had withdrawn all their weapons from the shrine compound, where civilians and unarmed militia members mingled in peace.

Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, agreed to take control of the shrine from Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army militia, a Sistani aide said, in hopes of ending its two-week-old uprising.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:52:49 PM
Cyberonics (CYBX) $19.82 +32.50 .... that was a "bad tick" to $20.95.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:47:53 PM
200-day SMA Alert .... Merck $46.18 +1.67% (MRK) Link ....

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:46:09 PM
Cyberonics (CYBX) $19.88 +32.84% ....

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  12:39:34 PM
NQ futures chart at this Link shows the so far weak 30 min cycle upphase. Bulls need a break above 1365 on a 30-min closing basis (just 4 points away) to confirm the bullish uptrend. For QQQ, a break above 33.87 for longer than 10 minutes or so would be the first step. But with op-ex pinning kicking in, it's doubtful whether we can expect a trustworthy high-volume directional move from here.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:39:14 PM
TRIN 0.74 .... updated 10-minute interval chart. Observation to Wednesday. Link

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  12:37:40 PM
The SOX tested the top of that triangle and headed down again and now tests the bottom support.

I'm reporting on these developments as I see them, but since I expected choppy and difficult trading conditions today, I urge you not to micromanage today and to be careful about jumping into positions. Jane has been reporting on TRIN levels and other internals that certainly weight the tenor toward the bullish side, but Keltner charts aren't giving me a strong sense that there's a lot of support just under the OEX, either, so I'm as leery of bullish positions as I would be of bearish ones with the TRIN this low. I can still pick out various inverse and regular H&S's on various charts, which tells me that market participants still haven't figured out which stance to take.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:30:11 PM
Cyberonics (CYBX) $19.85 +32.9% ... here's intra-day chart, thoughts, with upper and lower 5-MRTs. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  12:29:02 PM
QQQ managed a nominal new high 2 cents above the previous intraday high, but it's not enough to change the picture. However, there is an intraday support line at prior resistance of 33.80-.81 here: Link

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  12:21:57 PM
The SOX has formed a neutral triangle during today's trading, and is currently testing the top of that triangle.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  12:21:06 PM
The OEX did rise since my 12:00 post. Once again, resistance tries to firm on the OEX's five-minute chart, with that firming being attempted from 534.40-534.55. Support scatters on that chart now, so it's possible that the resistance will be enough to hold the OEX in the face of little nearby firm support, but that's far from clear. The Keltner lines have refused to firm up anywhere today, which just tells me what could have been expected on an opex Friday: direction just isn't clear yet. TRIN still says higher, however.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:19:42 PM
Day Trade Short action point alert CYBX $19.65

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:19:01 PM
Well Mark so far.... "QQQ at $33.22" didn't work.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:18:14 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert .... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.25 +1.91% .... to $59.90.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  12:17:21 PM
Nice Muhammad Ali type rhyme Jeff

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:16:25 PM
Should TRIN hit the floor.... it will be QQQ at $34.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  12:15:37 PM
We haven't had any stock split announcements in a while. Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) breaks the drought with a 2-for-1 split announcement.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:14:56 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.18 +1.89% ... busts a move to session high.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:13:45 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,095.50

QQQ $33.84

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  12:13:18 PM
SOX is within spitting distance of going green

  James Brown   8/20/200,  12:12:35 PM
Here is an interesting chart for the XAU Gold & Silver index and its bullish breakout. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  12:10:50 PM
QQQ is printing 33.83 here- next test is 33.86: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  12:07:52 PM
QQQ has been printing higher lows for the past hour, but has yet to approach the session high of 33.86, staying below fib resistance of 33.81. The choppy short cycle oscillators are providing no clues, and the upsloping 30 min channel would look great except for the inability of price to exceed yesterday's high. All in all, we're in a chop zone with juxtaposed intraday oscillators, and I'm inclined to blame it on op-ex tractor beam trading.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  12:07:48 PM
Day trade short setup alert .... for Cyberonics (CYBX) $19.80 +32.4 ... IF it trades $19.65, go short stop $20.26, target $19.05.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  12:06:07 PM
Pixelworks (PXLW) is up more than 13% to $10.58 after Smith Barney upgraded the stock from "hold" to a "buy". The rally is breaking out over resistance at the $10.00 mark on strong volume.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  12:03:41 PM
Also reporting of a fire at a Duke Energy (DUK) natural gas plant.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  12:02:25 PM
Talk on the TV is saying that the "terror premium" on crude oil has risen from $15 a barrel to $20 a barrel.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  12:00:46 PM
Talk about ominous... a Reuters article out today says Asian authorities are worried that the latest strain of bird flu has apparently spread to pigs. Scientists and health officials have been worried about a strain of bird flu mutating into a form that could infect humans and this latest development is a bad omen.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  12:00:11 PM
There's still no clarity on the Keltner charts as to OEX direction. The five-minute chart shows support near the current OEX position, at about 533.20, but the fifteen-minute chart shows strongest support at 532.58. Resistance lines are not converging, suggesting that the OEX could attempt a climb, but the strength of any climb might still be in doubt.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  11:58:51 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.00 +1.48% again.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  11:57:52 AM
The SOX is making higher lows and higher highs... hopefully it will continue to be the SOX-dicator, giving the first hints of an inflection point in short-term market direction Link

  James Brown   8/20/200,  11:56:57 AM
Good news for those you wishing for a giant LCD flat panel TV for Christmas this year. If you missed it on CNBC a few minutes ago there was a spot on how an oversupply of LCD screens is likely to bring the prices down on the flat-panel TVs.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  11:55:26 AM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.76 +2.5% ... updated bar chart with our fitted retracement at this Link

Giving serious consideration to selling 3 more of the September $15 calls (SWCIC) for $0.80. $15.00 + $0.80 = $15.80, which would be juuuust above that next "zone of resistance" ....

  James Brown   8/20/200,  11:54:42 AM
Hey-day telecom-bubble stock CIENA (CIEN) is up 6.5% to $2.10 this morning after reporting earnings yesterday. Analysts were expecting a loss of 8 cents per share. CIEN turned in a loss of 7 cents. Revenues did manage to come in above estimates but management seems cautious about the current quarter. Oddly enough the earnings news came out Thursday morning but the stock didn't move much on Thursday. Today's rally seems to be a response to an upgrade from "under weight" to "equal weight" by Morgan Stanley.

Here's an excerpt on CIEN's business outlook from their earnings press release:

"As a result of our broader product portfolio, we are engaged in significantly more customer interactions and are confident that those interactions will translate into opportunities longer-term," said Smith. "Short term, we expect revenue for our fourth fiscal quarter will be roughly flat with our third fiscal quarter revenue, reflecting ongoing customer uncertainty and caution."

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  11:52:13 AM
In my 10:27 post, I linked a chart that showed where the OEX was with respect to its 120-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that have had strong relevance for the OEX from late May through the present. The OEX is now between the 100 and 130-ema's, with the 100-ema at 532.30.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  11:49:43 AM
Jane, speaking of ominous looking charts... Link
There are mixed signals for sure... also keep in mind what has happened with the past two similar looking "b" distribution patterns on the SPX daily (we're trying to come out of one right now) Link
When I drew that last chart SPX was at 1060 and I was watching for a sharp upturn in the daily MACD... we got it.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  11:48:36 AM
Hmm.... I don't see any news but Mobile home/RV maker Thor Industries (THO) is down more than 6% to $24.30 on big volume today. The move has produced a new P&F chart sell signal with a $16 target.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  11:44:49 AM
Ouch! Apparel retailer The Wet Seal (WTSLA) is down more than 57% to $0.90 per share after reporting earnings. WTSLA announced earnings last night that missed analysts' estimates by 30 cents a share.

Analysts are worried that WTSLA may have to close hundreds of its non-performing stores to stay out of bankruptcy. The company reported a loss of $102.8 million for the quarter and will only have $11 million left in cash at the end of the current quarter. Odds of the company declaring bankruptcy are certainly growing.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  11:43:50 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $59.81 +1.16% ..... August "Max Pain" is $60.00. OK.....

A lot of action today in the Aug. $60 calls (RUPHL) with 3,195 traded, and also some action in the August $60 puts (RUPTL) at 1,653.

Similar to what we're experiencing in Stillwater Mining (SWC) today with those short August $15 calls, it is difficult to know for certain of the "Max Pain" levels can be broken intra-day, and if so, could it have impact?

Open Interest in the RIMM $60 calls isn't that high at 10,559, while $60 puts is equally matched at 9,601.

Still, take the current $0.40 and $0.60 trade between the two, and we could see a range of $1.00 either side of $60 today.

Day trader in RIMM might keep and eye on the Sept. $62.50 puts (RUPTM) (current volume 243, OI 2,732) and if you start seeing a bunch of trades at the bid (4.90) and put selling, could hint put premium seller.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  11:36:44 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

  James Brown   8/20/200,  11:36:11 AM
BlockBuster Inc (BBI) announced that its Board of Directors had declared a special cash dividend of $5.00 per share. The dividend is payable on September 3rd to shareholders on record as of August 27th. BBI is currently up 5% to $12.93 on the news.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  11:34:24 AM
30 min delayed USD Index chart at this Link . The ramp up from Europe's 3AM open is being retraced.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  11:34:01 AM
Sharper Image (SHRP) is turning in an impressive turnaround today. The stock gapped lower this morning but has rallied throughout the session and is currently up 3.7% to $17.54.

Last night the company announced earnings that were in-line with expectations but then warned for the next quarter. Wall Street has issued some downgrades with an "under weight", a "hold" and a "sell" rating. That makes me believe this could be short-covering on the news. The most recent data put short interest at 38% of the float.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  11:30:03 AM
Bullish Day trade raise stop alert .... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $59.85 +1.23% .... to $59.35.

  James Brown   8/20/200,  11:28:49 AM
Not much follow through in shares of Google (GOOG) today. The stock is only up 82 cents to $101.16.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  11:20:34 AM
The move up from QQQ 33.70 was accompanied by the tallest green volume candle of the day. I'm still partial to 33.75 as support, but the low volume drift down through it watered down its effectiveness somewhat. But that large volume bounce off 33.70 is bullish, and we need to see a break above the day highs now to confirm it. The short cycle oscillators are a choppy mess here.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  11:10:12 AM
Keltner resistance moved up with the OEX, but it held on five-minute closes with some candle shadows spiking above it. Now the OEX is back down to trying-to-firm Keltner support near 533.12-533.26. Again, Keltner lines don't give a clear picture of the trading, as if the OEX might still just waffle around for a while.

Note that the SOX is again testing the neckline of its H&S. The bulls didn't let it get far when it violated that neckline briefly earlier today, but they couldn't drive it above the right-shoulder level and reject the formation. Will they be as willing to buy the dip now?

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  11:07:56 AM
I'd be surprised if SPX didn't find support @ 1092... currently printing 1092.82

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  11:06:07 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Dollar up, gold up ..... oil up, equities up.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  11:06:03 AM
QQQ is back below 33.75, but volume has dried up for the past 10 minutes and the short cycles look aimless for the moment.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  11:05:47 AM
Is the conflict in Najaf over? Is it continuing? Conflicting reports may be puzzling markets. Be careful as markets react to conflicting reports.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  11:01:57 AM
Session high for gold at 416, silver 6.976. HUI +2.67% and XAU +2.05%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:58:51 AM
Gulp.... .....

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.80 +2.77% ....

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:58:10 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.00 and BLUE #4.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:57:35 AM
Here's where the OEX is with respect to its 120-minute 100/130-ema's: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:56:37 AM
QQQ update at this Link.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:55:17 AM
QQQ $33.77 +0.29% ... just off session high of $33.86 (DAILY R1 $33.87)

With TRIN reversing as it has, QQQ $34.00 and August "Max Pain" and DAILY R2 is in play.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:51:59 AM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,094.23

TRIN 0.83.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:51:20 AM
Careful, bulls, especially tech bulls. The SOX is headed back down toward that neckline of the possible H&S on its 15-minute chart.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:50:49 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $59.68 +0.93% .... with DAILY Pivots and upper 5-MRT at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:49:36 AM
The BIX now bounces from the top trendline of the megaphone formation depicted in the chart linked to my 9:39 post. The SOX has not yet made it above the right-shoulder level of its H&S on the 15-minute chart. The COMPX has traded above yesterday's high, a high produced on an inside-day trade, but it hasn't moved above Wednesday's. Mixed picture, but slanted to the bullish side so far, and that's supported by the "trend of the TRIN" that Jane has taught us to watch. The OEX, however, offers its own mixed picture, as it's approaching Keltner resistance marked on its daily and weekly chart, but showing a strong candlestick formation possible (depending on today's close) for the weekly chart, too. I sure wouldn't jump in on the bearish side right now, based on that trend of the TRIN, but I don't know how strongly I feel about the bullish side, either, just below the 536-357 possible resistance. I had felt that we might get limited upside, yesterday and then again today, so that doesn't make me gung-ho about new bullish trades.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:48:24 AM
Session high for silver here at 6.969, +2.11%.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:47:02 AM
Ticker headline:


I don't know if that's what did it, or whether it's the daily cycle bottom we've been watching this week. In any event, TNX is up 2.7 bps to 4.238%.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:41:56 AM
Approaching channel resistance at 33.90, currently testing 60 min channel resistance at 33.86. Note that gold has broken 414 resistance with a high print of 415.30. Next test is 418.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:40:01 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.40 and break even

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:39:50 AM
QQQ update at this Link , but price is climbing fast. I'd love to see volume begin to pick up to give me some confidence in the trend. But my feeling remains bullish above 33.75.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:39:26 AM
Day trade long alert ..... Research in Motion (RIMM) $59.40 here, stop $58.95, target $61.00.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:37:29 AM
Great observation in your 10:26 post Linda. That leads to the rhetorical question "What happens to equity prices if the price/bbl of crude drops back a few bucks?"

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:37:22 AM
What the heck....

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:37:16 AM
The OEX moves toward 534.10 Keltner resistance, with that resistance not looking any firmer than support has looked.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:36:57 AM
TRIN 0.77 ...

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:36:39 AM
Bearish Day trade stop alert for the QQQ $33.77

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:36:11 AM
After briefly violating the neckline of the H&S formation shown in the chart linked to my 10:10 post, the SOX bounces back above that neckline. False breakdown? Perhaps. What would an opex Friday be without some false breakouts, right? Now bulls want to see the SOX above the right-shoulder level, at 386.10, and preferably above the head, at 390.39. Bulls, including those in other indices, don't want to see the SOX head back down below that neckline and a new low of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:33:46 AM
VIX.X 16.62 -2.00%

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:32:36 AM
TRIN 0.87 ...

QQQ $33.74.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:31:41 AM
Trin 0.91

QQQ $33.72. .... ah...ohhhhh

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:30:59 AM
Have to be thinking it is going to have to take a TRIN above 1.05, or QQQ below DAILY Pivot for any thoughts of bearishness at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:29:50 AM
TRIN 1.01

QQQ $33.68

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:28:54 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Current positions...
SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) @ 15.80, stop 15.80 and break even
SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.40, stop 16.40 and break even

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:25:42 AM
I've moved to October crude futures this AM- currently up .325 to 47.975.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:24:56 AM
The OEX's Keltner lines are still scrambled, still not firming up particularly as either support or resistance. Nearest somewhat firm resistance is just above 534, while nearest somewhat firm support is at about 532.30-532.88. I wouldn't bet my trading account on either support or resistance holding, however, and that tells me that trading conditions might still be somewhat dicey. I'm not surprised that's what we're getting this morning. Perhaps be wary of committing too much cash to any thesis for the day.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:24:34 AM
Session high for Russell2K futures here, +1.03% vs. the Naz futures up .07%. Talk about bifurcated markets...

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:23:50 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:22:44 AM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.60 +1.52% .... please close just under $15.00, then erupt on Monday.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:21:16 AM
TRIN 0.98 .... pressure building....

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:20:54 AM
QQQ $33.65 -0.03% .... holding DAILY Pivot

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:20:40 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) to 15.80 and break even

Giant OOPS! I thought I had already issued this signal but went back and didn't see it. In any case, we're safe now.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:20:03 AM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.76 -1.78% ... session low

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:19:35 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.12 (unch) ...

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:19:06 AM
QQQ $33.67 .... doesn't see what's happening to Intel (INTC)

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:17:59 AM
Intel (INTC) $21.72 -1.31% .... trades its DAILY S1.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:17:39 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) to 16.40 and break even
We are in the "Cat Bird's Seat" again with opposing positions, both with zero risk. We'll let the market decide what it wants to do now.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:17:01 AM
Rising 7200-tick SMA support is at 33.60, and short cycle channel support is now 33.64 QQQ. Volume is actually picking up on the decline here, and a move below the the 7200-tick SMA will target 33.50 for starters. At 33.50 the short cycle oscillator will be back to a downphase from an equal previous high, setting us up for a test of 33.38-.44 confluence, below which the next major support area is 33.20-.24. Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:16:59 AM
Looks like bulls are going to defend them today.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:15:39 AM
Trin 1.00

QQQ $33.65 .... at DAILY Pivot

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:15:03 AM
10:12 AM Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:14:06 AM
The $RLX, the S&P Retail Index, trades lower this morning, continuing the possibility that it's turning down beneath its 200-sma. Although the pullback could just be the beginning of a bull flag, it looks vulnerable to a pullback. Even if such a pullback occurs, it might not mean a death to eventual bullish hopes for the sector. Here's what I mean: Link While many regular and inverse H&S's have not been meeting targets lately, watching this one allows those bullish and bearish retail stocks to measure risk. Those in bullish trades now might be aware of the risk to a roll down to the right shoulder area, while those who are bearish might be aware of the risk of a possible steadying and then climb if that right-shoulder area is reached.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:10:36 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put) @ 16.40, stop 15.00

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:09:58 AM
Gold is up to 413.60, session high 413.70, up 4.40. HUI is up 1,92% to 209.14, XAU up 1.43% to 95.36. Above 414, next resistance is 418.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:08:50 AM
Trin 0.93

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:07:19 AM
TRIN continues to drop, currently printing .92 ... if this trend remains intact we will probably pass on the "bracketing" short position, but stay ready anyway.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:06:40 AM
3B overnight repo just announced against 9.25B expiring for a net 6.25B drain.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  10:06:03 AM
30 min channle resistance is up to 33.87, just above 60 min channel resistance of 33.85 QQQ. If 33.75 breaks with any increase in volume, those would be my preliminary targets. But the 30 min upphase is just getting started, and a failure to reverse immediately will likely target the 34 level.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:04:16 AM
The OEX bumped a little above the 533.90 level where the first resistance appeared to be trying to firm, but it's pausing up near that level long enough that the resistance may actually have time to firm. The OEX looks vulnerable to 533.22, but as long as it maintains five-minute closes above that level, it may continue to try to test that overhead resistance. If it falls further, support tries to firm from 532.25-532.60.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  10:03:58 AM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Get ready to enter a "bracketing" short play... SPQUR (SPX Sept 1090 put)
We may have already missed it but I'm hoping for one more poke higher. If we get it and the indicators look right we'll be going short against our existing long play.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  10:01:43 AM
The SOX needs to bounce or else it risks confirming this formation: Link If a general market bounce is to be sustainable, then we need the techs to cooperate

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  10:01:01 AM
TRIN 0.99 .... QCharts intra-day TRIN chart at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:58:45 AM
The SOX is not enjoying a bounce along with some other indices.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  9:58:05 AM
Volume is still light but price won't rollover for QQQ either. Session high is so far 33.75. I'd expect volume to confirm a break of that level, but until it does, price can just continue to whip around and reverse.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:55:46 AM
Bearish day trade raise stop alert for QQQ to $33.77, up 2 cents from $33.75 if you can.

I was "eyeballing" where QQQ might trade should TRIN move back to its DAILY Pivot and 1.00.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:54:42 AM
TRIN 1.00

QQQ $33.73.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  9:52:27 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) to 15.80 and break even

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:52:20 AM
Semi-related stocks were weak in Asia and Europe in the overnight session, but the SOX has not yet moved much in any direction.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  9:51:25 AM
Session highs breaking out here, QQQ printing 33.71 as I type. A move above 33.75 will confirm the early abort to the short cycle downphase and yesterday afternoon's 30 min upphase. Volume didn't expand much on the break just now, and so I'd be patient to see 33.75 confirm the move. It could reverse here.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:51:13 AM
TRIN 1.05 session low

QQQ $33.71 .... session high.

It's going to be close!

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:50:14 AM
Resistance has still not firmed on the OEX, and so it looks free to rise, but it's usually stopped by the Keltner channel line now near 533.90. We'll have to see if it's stopped there today or if there's a breakout toward the next channel line, currently at 535.23.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:47:31 AM
TRIN 1.14 ... low of session

QQQ $33.63 -0.12% ....

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  9:47:16 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPQIS (SPX Sept 1095 call) @ 15.80, stop 14.80

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:47:00 AM
Jane will likely shortly be updating us on what she sees on the TRIN levels, but for now, they're still too high to tempt me into a bullish thesis for the day, while I'm also aware that the trend has been down since the open.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:45:18 AM
OEX Keltner support held on the first test, but it's unclear on a Keltner-chart basis where the OEX might head next. Resistance may be trying to firm near 533.50-533.80, but as yet it looks no firmer than support did earlier today. Be careful, as trading is sometimes difficult when the Keltner charts behave as they are now.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  9:42:54 AM
Short cycle channel resistance is lined up at 33.70 QQQ, above which the current short cycle weakness will abort. A move abvove 33.75 will confirm a new short cycle upphase and the nascent 30 min cycle upphase.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:42:50 AM
The Nasdaq has not moved below yesterday's low or above yesterday's high, still trading inside yesterday's inside-day candle. I'm not a particular fan of inside-day theory, having been suckered into too many trades only to have the thing turn around and head the other direction, but some are.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  9:41:46 AM
I'm regretting it already.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:41:25 AM
The TRAN slips lower again this morning, but only minimally so and it has not yet moved below the 10-dma or yesterday's low.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:41:04 AM
QQQ $33.62 -0.09%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:40:35 AM
TRIN 1.38

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:40:22 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,035.07 -0.05% .... DAILY Pivot right here.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  9:40:15 AM
It was very tempting to go long on that first dip as the SPX 1-min CCI printed a -300 right out of the gate, but I resisted because of the very high TRIN. I hope I don't regret that decision.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:39:57 AM
The BIX is again slipping back into this formation: Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:38:14 AM
Day trade short alert the QQQ $33.57 here, stop $33.75 target $33.25.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:36:32 AM
TRIN 1.48 .... DAILY Pivot levels from QCharts are same as shown in last night's Index Trader Wrap (within 0.01) at all levels.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  9:32:36 AM
QQQ printed a premarket low of 33.50 and is declining again following its bounce of the past half hour. Dec. gold futures are up 1.50 to 410.70, with HUI up .18% and XAU not yet opened. Bonds are weak, with TNX up 1 bp to 4.221%.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:31:54 AM
The OEX opens and drops toward that trying-to-gather Keltner support. That support isn't yet firm, but if the OEX doesn't fall too quickly, it can still have time to firm up. The OEX may not give it time, but we have to see.

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:31:28 AM
TRIN 2.40

  Jeff Bailey   8/20/200,  9:28:17 AM
Cyberonics (CYBX) $14.95 Link ... jumping in active pre-market trade to $19.39 after Advanced Neuromodulation Systems (ANSI) $31.44 Link , which trades lower at $28.99 announced it is taking a 14.9% stake in ANSI through open market purchases.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  9:25:41 AM
Last night's semi book-to-bill number was not well received, adding to the pressure markets experience due to rising crude costs. Yesterday, the OEX ended between support and resistance on the Keltner charts, so it wasn't clear whether the OEX might first head down or first head up. The cash market doesn't always open in accordance with the position of futures and that might be particularly true on an opex Friday when the S&P 500 reaches a settlement figure as all components open, but if the OEX first heads down, it will soon hit the trying-to-converge Keltner support somewhere in the 532-532.40 region. A gap below that or a swift move lower early in the session could get below that support before it can firm up. If the OEX heads lower first, we'll have to see if that support holds or how Keltner resistance lines converge as it is tested to determine the most likely next move.

  Jane Fox   8/20/200,  9:23:00 AM
Mark, I sort of chuckled at that one too.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  9:20:07 AM
Jane I love the last line in that WSJ piece. "... trading levels often overshoot... the levels dictated by fundamentals..."

Stupid me. I thought that was how the markets ALWAYS worked.

  Jane Fox   8/20/200,  9:14:57 AM
DAteline WSJ - Crude-oil prices pushed past $49 a barrel Friday amid heightened concern about supplies in strife-torn Iraq, and doubts over how much extra crude could be pumped anytime soon to ease the price surge.

September crude futures hit $49.20 a barrel in electronic trading Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, setting a fresh record. The contract had hit a trading high of $48.80 during Thursday's New York hours.

The September futures contract is due to expire later Friday. The October contract traded at $48.29 a barrel.

"The momentum of fear is running so hot now, everyone is waiting for something bad to happen," said Ng Weng Hoong, editor at EnergyAsia.com in Singapore.

Market watchers said concern focused on the showdown in Iraq between radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and coalition forces in the holy city of Najaf, a confrontation that has already lasted three weeks. The militia has repeatedly threatened to target Iraq's vulnerable oil infrastructure, especially the Gulf state's pipeline network, accentuating market fears about tight global supplies.

When asset prices rapid change, trading levels often overshoot, or swing far beyond the levels dictated by fundamentals as quickly shifting sentiment takes hold. The condition accentuates volatility, as do the activities of large hedge funds.

  Mark Davis   8/20/200,  9:02:15 AM
Good Morning... Options traders were treated to unusually high volatility this week, considering it was opex week. With the exception of Tuesday, every trading day saw pretty good movement on the indices. Combine high volatility with close proximity to opex and you have the recipe for excellent gains. Many SPX strike prices close to the action experienced +100-200% gains on a daily basis. You don't see that too often. Unfortunately that kind of action is probably over until at least the next opex week. We will be using September contracts starting today and @ $16-20 per contract it will be much more difficult to realize a +100% gain than when prices are @ $1.50-3.00 per contract.

I don't have a very good sense of market direction right now. Yesterday could have been a short-term top and we go down from here, but it's equally possible, judging from the past two "b" distribution patterns similar to the one we're in right now, that we are at the beginning stages of a substantial rally. If I had to guess, and that's all it would be, I would say there are lower lows in our future before higher highs. Luckily, we don't have to know that information to trade successfully. Today's trading should be less volatile than recent days as most positions have already been squared.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  8:57:25 AM
QQQ has rising 30 min channel support at 33.41 currently. This morning's decline has yet to register on the volume-driven short cycle oscillators, but a move to that level will roll them over into a new downphase against the nascent 30 minute cycle upphase forming of the last hour bounce yesterday. A move above 33.60 will restore the short cycle, while a move above 33.75 would be required to confirm the 30 min upphase. Below 33.40, the 30 min cycle upphase should abort.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/20/200,  8:09:20 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1088, NQ 1349, YM 10013 and QQQ down .15 to 33.54. Gold is down 1.80 to 407.40, silver -.024 to 6.801, ZN bonds up .046 to 112.9375, and Nymex crude up 1.425 to 48.70.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

  Linda Piazza   8/20/200,  6:54:48 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei was unable to build on Thursday's gains Friday morning, tried again during the afternoon, but ended the day down 14.39 points or 0.13%, at 10,889.14. The semi-book-to-bill report showed the smallest month-to-month increase in global orders since August, 2003, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International reported after the close Thursday. The book-to-bill ratio fell to 1.05 from a revised 1.07 in June. That result sent semi-related Asian stocks lower. The tech weakness undid some of the positive impact from a tertiary index that showed demand for services growing 0.8% rather than the expected 0.4%. Retailers and auto manufacturers gained, although consumer spending grew 0.6%, less than the previous quarter's 1.1% growth. Mitsubishi Motors, expected to make public on Thursday the final conclusions of its in-house inquiry into the cover-up of defects that should have warranted recalls, gained 7.8%. Retailer Daiei gained, but experienced a volatile trading pattern that included suspended trading for a period during the afternoon. The stock had gained 16.2% at one point but then began plummeting from that high when speculation arose about the restructuring plan that will be forced upon the company by its three main creditors. The stocked ended the day up 3.4%, but far below the high of the day.

With semi-related stocks generally weak across Asia, other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.35%. South Korea's Q2 GDP rose a higher-than-expected 0.6%. Economists had predicted only a 0.5% gain, but gains still slow from the previous pace over the last year. The Kospi dropped 0.11%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.64%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.16%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.10%.

Currently, most European bourses trade lower as autos and airlines are hit by rising fuel prices. As happened in Asia, many semi-related stocks also decline after the book-to-bill number, and tech stocks in general also decline due to the impact that rising fuel costs might have on economic growth. With the surplus of LCD screens for computer and televisions reportedly expected to grow, manufacturer Royal Philips Electronics dipped. In the U.K., the performance of oil giants was mixed. Merrill Lynch upgraded Shell to a buy rating from its former neutral rating, helping that stock to gain. WPP, a provider of communications services, fell after reporting earnings, expressing cautions about the effect that U.S. elections might have on the U.S. economy in 2005, and mentioning plans to acquire another firm.

Currently, the FTSE 100 has dropped 7.50 points or 0.17%, to 4,355.10. The CAC 40 has dropped 18.06 points or 0.51%, to 3,526.36. The DAX has dropped 21.70 points or 0.58%, to 3,701.29.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:54:38 PM
Good Gravy! ... I looked at BGO this morning as it traded WEEKLY R2 of $2.50.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:41:00 PM
Precious Metals Bullish % (BPPREC) from Dorsey/Wright and Associates reverses up to Bull Confirmed status at very low level of bullish risk. Link

Quick scan of those stocks Dorsey/Wright used to make up the BPPRES which has STOCKS in UPWARD trend on PnF chart with Relative Strength that is STRONG versus the market are... AAUK Link , LNMIY, NEM Link , SIL Link , SSRI Link , SWC Link and WTZ Link .

Dorsey classifies and tracks 54 stocks for the Precious Metals Bullish %. Not a lot of strong ones at this point, but some sign of internal strength showing up.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:34:47 PM
Many indices printed the doji or small-bodied candles that I suggested might be seen in Thursday's trading. Those indices included the SOX, Nasdaq, GSO (Software Index), RLX (Retail Index), IUX (Insurance Index), and BKX (banking index). Unfortunately, they did not include the TRAN, Dow, SPX, and OEX, indices that I also thought might produce such candles. These indices had bigger-range days than I expected, and although they closed lower, they sprang up from tested support. In the OEX's case, the OEX was testing its 60-minute 100/130-ema's from above, as well as its 20-dma. The OEX turned down almost exactly from the midline of its rising regression channel, and also from the Keltner resistance shown on both the daily and weekly charts. RSI hooked down, but only minimally, and both stochastics and MACD remain turned higher, although MACD still remains below signal.

My theory had been that the indices might consolidate through Friday before possibly rolling down to form another shoulder to go with the potential inverse H&S's on their daily charts or before rejecting those formations by shooting up through what would have been the neckline. That spring up from support and the larger range than expected confounds my theory, however. Was that negative close a bearish result or was that spring a bullish one? Which should be given greater weight?

Essentially, though, the markets ended about where I expected them to end. The SOX ended the day balanced on that 50% retracement of the rally off the October 2002 low and at the boundary of its former descending regression channel. Indecision. The COMPX printed an inside day candle at the top of the rise, but it closed back inside the gap from 8/06 and just below its former regression channel. Indecision. The Dow turned down from the midline of its descending regression channel and from the descending trendline off the June high. Depending on how you draw the descending trendline off the July swing highs, the SPX also turned down from a similar trendline. None turned far down, however. That's the kind of indecision I expected for Thursday.

The TRAN, however, showed less indecision, and it's been the TRAN that's perhaps been the true bellwether index for us lately. Or did the TRAN show less indecision after all? The TRAN erased almost all of Wednesday's gains, producing a tweezer-top that looks anything but indecisive, but the TRAN closed at the former resistance from its former rectangular consolidation pattern from August. That suggests that for Thursday at least, that former resistance held as support.

Whether the TRAN dives below that former resistance or bounces from it is likely governed by what happens with crude. The TRAN has been valiantly trying not to break out of that regression channel, but those rising crude costs may catch up eventually. Watch developments out of Iraq in the overnight session, and then whether the TRAN can hold onto the 3050 level or whether it instead bounces from that support. Watch for a SOX rollover beneath 386-387 or for a bounce from that zone. Although I'm not a great fan of inside-day theory, watch for a Nasdaq break above Thursday's high or below Thursday's low. Watch for the BIX to continue rolling down beneath the top line of its megaphone shape or to find support at that top line and rise. All these can give signals about likely market direction.

But be cautious. That first scenario, of continued indecision through Friday, remains possible and that's going to eat up option premium if we get a pin-them-to-the-number afternoon. On the OEX, daily Keltner charts still show a possibility of another push toward 536-537, and perhaps up to 540-541 if the OEX pushes hard enough. The weekly chart shows each push upward stopping where weekly Keltner resistance should be found, a point in the bears' favor, but the weekly candlestick configuration looking like a possible morning-star reversal signal if the OEX manages to close the week at or above Thursday's closing level. Mixed signals can be found on almost every chart, and that sometimes results in confusion on the part of investors and choppy trading conditions.

So, the potential remains for a limited push higher where resistance might be found, mostly likely in the 535-537 zone, but perhaps at 534 or perhaps higher than 535-537. Support can be found in the 529-530 zone, if not higher. As the day ended Thursday, five-minute Keltner charts showed support trying to converge near 532-532.50, with that support looking as if it might be firm unless the OEX gaps or swoops lower near the open Friday morning. It should be good for at least a bounce attempt unless that gap or swoop occurs. The 15-minute chart shows support in the same area. As the charts are configured now, it looks possible that the OEX could bounce rather unfettered up to the 533.70-534 zone, and perhaps all the way up to 535-537, depending on whether the OEX dips first or rises first Friday morning. A dip first might allow Keltner resistance to converge overhead. Since the OEX was between Keltner support and Keltner resistance, the Keltner charts don't give clear clues as to first direction Friday morning, and overnight developments in Iraq might change that anyway. The semi book-to-bill number released after the close was viewed as disappointing and showing growth in demand as slowing, but it so far hasn't seemed to impact futures much. Semi-related stocks do trade lower in Asia as I type, however.

Tomorrow is opex Friday, so strange things can happen. I don't have as strong a feel for what I expect to happen Friday as I did Thursday, and some of my Thursday scenario did not work out as planned, either. If someone held my feet in the fire, I'd have to say that I'd expect either another day of indecision or a limited gain and then roll down toward 532 or 530, but that's just a guess and that weekly candlestick configuration sure gives me pause when making that guess. Is a stronger bounce possible? Sure, especially on an opex Friday, when anything is possible. Is a lower trade possible? Sure.

  OI Technical Staff   8/19/200,  9:27:55 PM
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