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  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  4:45:03 PM
QQQ trading 34.51 in AH... this "should" be good for our overnight SPX short.
See you all tomorrow.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  4:39:25 PM
Recap of Wednesday's trades
Short SPX @ 1095.76
Exit @ 1096.75, -0.99
Short SPX @ 1096.02
Exit @ 1097.50, -1.48
Short SPX @ 1100.35
Exit @ 1102.35, -2.00
Short SPX @ 102.85
Exit @ 1102.85, +0.00
Short SPX @ 1104.70
Exit @ 1105.70, -1.00
Short SPX @ 1105.51 (hold overnight)
________________________________
Total gain/loss for Wednesday = -5.47
Total gain/loss for the week = -8.13

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  4:17:49 PM
Is this a developing inverse H&S on the SPX 60-min chart? Link
It looks like it has the potential... if so then Jim's 1080 downside target looks good from yet another angle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  4:14:24 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Closed out the carryover day trade short in Microsoft (MSFT) at $27.31 ($-0.04, or -0.15%).

Day trade long Sabre Holdings (NYSE:TSG) at $22.07, was then stopped out at $22.07 after raising stop when stock neared bullish target of $22.60. ($0.00, or break even).

Swing trade long 1/4 bullish call option position for Sohu.com (SOHU) and the December $15 calls (UZKLC) at $2.60. No stop and targeting $27.50.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  4:11:22 PM
QQQ trading +/- 1 cent of 34.55 in AH

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:56:39 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1107.51 and hold overnight

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  3:55:11 PM
Breaking the prior low here. Looks like 34.60 is going to do it. It looks bearish below 34.55 QQQ, the site of the current 72 priod SMA.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:52:21 PM
We have a double swing low @ 1104.50... if we can take that out convincingly the trade will look pretty good for an overnight hold... currently printing 1104.62

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:48:05 PM
Well I pulled the trigger about 2 minutes too early and SPX popped up another 3/4 point, but then the shorts tore into it like a stray dog in an alley dumpster... not much follow through to the downside yet though, as Jonathan noted. If we can get one more swoosh to the downside before the close I'll feel a lot better but I think we nailed a pretty good entry.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  3:43:31 PM
The drop from the 34.60 QQQ tag looked good, but they need to get below 34.50 to close the door. So far, there's no pickup in downside volume on the pullback, but the drop in price was steeper than off the previous high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  3:35:16 PM
QQQ has just printed 34.60 here, a new session high. The earlier dip was slowly corrected and it's breaking higher here, testing confluence resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:30:46 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short again... SPX 1105.51, stop 1108.51

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  3:26:46 PM
Sabre Holding (TSG) $22.68 -6.63% ... moves to session high.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:25:10 PM
TRIN is at LOD according to my records and SPX is heading back up

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  3:22:32 PM
eBay (EBAY) $85.46 +1.87% ... retraces 61.8% of its recent June-July decline.

WEEKLY R1 served morning support with WEEKLY S2 serving as 01:00 pullback support.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:22:18 PM
We're on the verge of aborting the buy signal... MACD flattening out and threatening a bearish kiss. C'mon boys, give us one more chance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  3:20:19 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:17:20 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Buy signal developing... we will not take a long here but hope they run it up again to a decent short entry. If the buy signal aborts early (a distinct possibility) then we will have missed the top.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:08:15 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  3:07:10 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  3:05:43 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
I'm really hoping for another new HOD or close to it... if so I'm going to short it with a stop just above 1108. I just hope that last high @ 1106.03 wasn't the last gasp.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  3:00:04 PM
2:56pm OCT CRUDE CLOSES AT $43.47, DOWN $1.74, OR 3.8%

IB is reporting 43.50 for the last trade on my feed, but it's a 1-tick discrepancy.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:59:07 PM
If this rally follows the pattern it's been following for the last several hours we should start another run at the upper b-band right about now (SPX 1105.49)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:51:57 PM
Bokers (XBD.X) 126.38 +2.05% Link .... showing some strength/leadership of late.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:50:41 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPX 1105.70, -1.00
No justice today

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  2:49:23 PM
QQQ's 300 min stochastic is getting up there, and it's at levels from which a reversal could commence at any time. Link . But I believe it's early to rule out more upside or even a terminal upside spike. I still think that 34.80 will cap this leg up, and that the most likely direction for the next big move (to a higher low within the daily cycle upphase) is to the downside. It's the timing and the level from which it should begin that I'm uncertain- thinking 34.60 or 34.80 QQQ.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:46:14 PM
B-bands are getting pinched very tight again so we should see our next move very soon. If there is any justice in the universe it should be down.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:43:14 PM
The trouble with these targets (SPX 1108) is they are based on technical analysis, an inexact science, and you never know if the market will turn down short of the target, at the target or above the target, or for that matter if the target is even valid. All you can do is play the odds and hope to put them in your favor.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:39:31 PM
Big test coming up for the NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,431.05 +0.76% at the 6,436 level. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:36:12 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:34:06 PM
MACD has made a steep downturn... but has not crossed (yet)

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:32:44 PM
You said it Jane... this is the worst week I've had since coming on board and the frustrating part is this is what I thought the market was going to do!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  2:32:03 PM
A friend just sent me the attached chart Link showing QQQ at upper channel resistance. Because these aren't my charts or my settings, I hesitate to base my cycle view on it. But it suggests that the going should get tough here, lining up with the 34.60 level I posted about earlier. If the bulls can power above 34.60, a move to 34.80 should severely limit the gains from there.

 
 
  Jane Fox   8/25/200,  2:28:01 PM
Sorry Mark. This market is scary today isn't it.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:26:59 PM
Stop scaring me Jane

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:24:09 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPX 1104.70, stop 1105.70

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:23:34 PM
Swing trade call alert .... taking 1 Sohu.com (SOHU) December $15 call (UZKLC) at the offer of $3.60.

SOHU trading $16.50 +7.28% here. (Note: This would be a 1/4 bullish position).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  2:22:48 PM
Session high for QQQ at 34.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  2:22:20 PM
That's a 4.15% decline for October crude right here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  2:21:59 PM
Crude has gotten clocked here, down 1.876 to 43.425, session low 43.225.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  2:19:25 PM
Another large volume spike here- all of the largest volume candles since 1:30PM have been on the sell side.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:18:25 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  2:17:42 PM
A failure below the 34.49 QQQ prior high would suggest weakening in the mature 30 minute cycle upphase, setting the stage for a retest of 34.37 support. A break higher should be able to run to 34.60, which is next firm resistance. I'm expecting trouble for the 30 minute cycle upphase by 34.60 if 34.49 breaks. I'd be shocked if they can clear 34.80 on this run without a consolidation or pullback first.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:13:27 PM
At this rate we may make 1108 before EOD

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:08:58 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... 1102.85 and break even
Stand by to go short again

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  2:02:36 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1102.85 and break even
Keene you must be reading my mind. I had a downside target of 1100 for this "move", if you can call it that. I'm not sure it will even get that low considering the bullishness. I was then planning on going long again for an expected rally to 1108, at which point I was planning on shorting like there was no tomorrow. This is all in a perfect world of course.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  1:57:58 PM
two pretty good volume spikes in the QQQ today at DAILY Pivot and R1. 5-minute interval chart at this Link

I don't know about you, but I thought the oil inventory data would have been bullish for oil and bearish for equities. Note the first volume spike in the QQQ found higher price, which came JUST AFTER the oil inventory data was released.

This suggests to me that there was a pre-determined decision to BUY equities.

With October Crude Oil futures (cl04v) 44.30 +2.01%, one might also think there was a pre-determined decision to SELL oil too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  1:57:14 PM
Crude oil is moving lower again, down 1 at 44.20 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  1:43:19 PM
Mark has generously sent me a 1-minute chart of the SPX in lieu of the short cycle charts that I'm currently lacking on my jury-rigged computer. Link Note the bearish CCI divergence at the top, with a lower high for the higher price high. This spells nearterm trouble for bulls, but again, I'm not accustomed to the CCI or the current chart settings, and can't generate my own until more ticks have accumulated. QQQ traders need to see the session high break. Support below is at 34.37, 34.30 and 34.25. The CCI divergence suggests weakness gathering in one of the longer timeframes- my guess would be 5 or 10 minute candles. The 30 minute cycle upphase is still looking strong.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  1:36:35 PM
b-bands are tightening... our next move should happen soon

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  1:31:25 PM
Dec. gold is currently up 5.30 at 410.20, HUI +2.93% at 205.2. October Nymex Crude oil continues lower, currently -.90 at 44.30, on a bounce from the session low of 44.10.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  1:28:32 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPX 1102.85, stop 1103.85

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  1:27:02 PM
My upside bias from Monday morning is playing out. My upside target (for at least a pause) is SPX 1108... somehow I've managed to get shaken out of all my long positions. Arrrrrrrgh!

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  1:25:14 PM
Thanks Jane. If it were my own account I wouldn't be so frustrated... there are good days and bad days, but when playing with readers money it's a heavy weight on your shoulders. About the time I throw up my arms in disgust is about the time things turn around. It's similar to finding a lost item... you always find it in the last place you look (because once you find it you stop looking).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  1:22:04 PM
Next firm resistance above current levels is 34.60. Without short cycle oscillators on this reserve machine (thanks, Bell Sympatico), I can't evaluate how extended this rally has become on the short cycles. But I'm guessing that we're in a trending move, and the 30 min cycle oscillators won't be seriously overbought until at least that level. Regardless of whether the move fails here at 34.45 or higher up, daily cycle bulls have their higher high, and they'll be looking next for a higher low above 33.90 QQQ for the next downphase.

 
 
  Jane Fox   8/25/200,  1:14:37 PM
Mark I'm sure you are not the only one who is frustrated. TA is of no value when the programs are playing.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  1:12:17 PM
I can't put into words how frustrating this is. Yesterday I bent my rules because of my upside bias and paid for it. Today I stuck to my rules (still with an upside bias) and paid again. The market has been so good at giving me the shaft lately I'll bet its neighbors are having cigarettes.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  1:10:08 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPX 1102.35, -2.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  1:09:04 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,101.50 , QQQ $34.46

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  1:08:55 PM
Here's the test of QQQ 34.45.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  1:06:53 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  1:04:28 PM
On the 30 min chart, this move constitutes the return-to-the-scene-of-the-crime rally. For QQQ, it will take a move above the 34.40-.45 level to regain the corresponding rising trendline. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  1:02:17 PM
30 min NQ futures chart at this Link showing the higher high from the 30 min cycle upphase to confirm the ongoing daily cycle upphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:58:53 PM
12:53 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  12:55:59 PM
Exit point alert! Textron (TXT) is nearing our profit target in the $65.00-66.00 range. Short-term traders can exit at $65.00. We're going to hold out for $66.

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  12:54:44 PM
Heads up! ZBRA is up 1.56% to $84.50 and has triggered us at $84.35. The breakout over resistance at $83.50 and 84.00 is good news. Remember that ZBRA splits 3:2 tomorrow.

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  12:51:33 PM
So what's going on with Boeing (BA) today? Last night we listed it on the Watch List for a bullish breakout over $51.50 and today shares are up 3% to $52.55 on strong volume. One analyst firm I've never heard of cut BA from a "hold" to a "sell" today saying BA was fully valued but the downgrade is not having an impact on the stock.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:51:05 PM
We're getting our volume now on the last poke higher, the largest volume bar of the past hour for QQQ. This is enough to confirm the daily cycle upphase, with a higher 30 min cycle high over the previous high. Now let's see how far bulls can run the ball. 34.45 is the next confluence resistance. I wish that I had intraday keltners, but there aren't yet enough data points to generate them.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:47:10 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:40:57 PM
Volume still isn't exploding higher. Look for support at 34.30 QQQ and 34.25, the levels of the last 2 moderate volume spikes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:40:06 PM
Crude oil is at a session low here of 44.35, -.85 currently.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:39:10 PM
Do I know how to time those program trades or what? (the ones that go counter to my trades, that is)

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:36:41 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPX 1100.35, stop 1102.35

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:35:13 PM
Price is doing its thing, and volume is picking but not explosively. This could still whip back down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:35:11 PM
October Crude Oil futures (cl04v) $44.55 -1.45% (30-minute delayed) ... just under yesterday's lows, trades below DAILY S1 ($44.63).

Probably very correlative to that buy program premium and TRIN back below 1.0 30-minutes ago.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:33:48 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:33:47 PM
QQQ testing yesterday's high, critical resistance here for the 30 min cycle upphase.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:32:28 PM
Here comes that poke higher... SOX just made another new HOD

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:27:25 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:20:04 PM
The only thing I don't like about a short here is that the SOX has completely reversed it's earlier losses and is now leading the charge up (not to mention the TRIN)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:17:32 PM
Gold is also at a session high, back above 408 at 408.70. Next resistance is the 412-414 confluence zone. A lower high below that level will confirm the daily cycle rollover discussed in last night's Futures Wrap.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:16:32 PM
Session highs breaking here, with QQQ clearing 34.22 resistance. The daily cycle upphase needs successive higher highs and higher lows from the nested 30 min cycle, and yesterday it topped at a nominally higher 34.31. That's the key resistance above this move- a failure means trouble for bulls, while a break should take us to the 34.45 confluence zone as next resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:15:23 PM
12:10 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  12:13:59 PM
Back. Our internet connection failed entirely after blowing up the router this morning. I'm at another machine and trying to get my charts up. Unfortunately, I have no intraday data from which to generate cycle channels and targets for my symbols.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:13:59 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Short signal developing... stand by
One more poke higher should do it

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:12:40 PM
This week has been frustrating to say the least. Doing the opposite of what seemed to be the right thing would have been a great strategy so far.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:07:13 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPX 1097.50, -1.48
Never short a dull market syndrome?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:06:42 PM
Buy program premium .... SPX 1,097.38 , QQQ $34.20.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  12:04:42 PM
I'd be surprised too Jane but it wouldn't be the first time. All you can do is play the odds and that bullhorn wedge that turned into a diamond looked pretty good to me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:02:39 PM
TRIN 1.00 ... session low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:02:11 PM
Netease.com (NTES) update alert $34.60 +4.78% ... strong bid today as Asian markets continued to trade strong on Tuesday.

Yesterday evening, I was reviewing NTES's relative strength chart versus the QQQ, and wanted to see some follow through weakness, where I was then going to look to round to full position in the NTES puts, but today's action has the RS chart back into a column of X and I begin contemplating closing out the current 1/2 bearish position and the December $30 puts.

Here's the RS chart of NTES vs. QQQ. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  11:53:26 AM
Day trade stop alert ... for Sabre Holdings (TSR) $22.13 -8.81% ... at profiled $22.07 (break-even).

that's probably going to be it for me today. Came within 5-cents of target, but stocks look like they're going to be in a holding pattern again today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  11:53:24 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPX 1096.02, stop 1097.50

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  11:50:48 AM
Got Diamonds? Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  11:41:27 AM
I was about to post a chart when I lost connection but it looks like the Bullhorn Wedge is still in play. Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  11:38:34 AM
That was wierd... I completely lost connection to the MM, the OI website and my OI email account. I assumed another piece of OI hardware had mysteriously gone up in flames or there was a Gremlin attack. Now all of a sudden everything is back up and I see other writers have been posting in the interim... during the time I lost connection with OI I still had connection with everything else (scratching my head)...

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  11:37:57 AM
Jon Levinson just called me. His Internet connection is down and he's not sure when it will be back up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  11:28:05 AM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert ... for Sabre Holdings (TSG) $22.49 -7.29% .... to break even.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  11:16:33 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  11:14:25 AM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.50 +0.42% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  11:03:35 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:58:40 AM
Day trade long alert ... for Sabre Holdings (TSG) $22.07 here, stop $21.70, target $22.60.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:53:12 AM
Updated QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart at this Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:52:24 AM
OmniVision Tech (OVTI) $11.27 -2.59% .... closed this morning's gap lower.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:47:13 AM
Nymex crude is down to 45.225, up .025 for the day and off its 45.575 intraday high. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:43:37 AM
Bearish day trade exit alert .... for Microsoft (MSFT) $27.31 at the offer.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:41:48 AM
10:41am GREENSPAN TO TESTIFY ON BUDGET ON SEPT. 8

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:39:44 AM
The last dip to QQQ 33.99 was caused by a selling spike that saw over 1M shares traded within a single 100 tick bar. The break above 34.05 targets the day high of 34.16 on the way to the key test of 34.30, a break above which is necessary to avoid a lower 30 min cycle high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:32:20 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,094.73 -0.13% .... hasn't been able to get above its DAILY Pivot of 1,096.66. Did trade a brief tick at 1,096.84.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:31:03 AM
Intel (INTC) $21.72 +0.23% .... just below its DAILY Pivot of $21.81.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:30:22 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.26 +0.07% .... content above its DAILY Pivot of $27.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:29:36 AM
QQQ $34.04 -0.12% ... content, just below its DAILY Pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:29:05 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 378.95 -0.34% .... opening ticks came at current session low of 374.67 and DAILY S1. Would probably take something north of DAILY Pivot to bring in some more aggressive buyers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:27:32 AM
Session high for 10-yr treasuries here, TNX -4.3 bps at 4.24%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:27:12 AM
This bounce needs to clear 34.15 QQQ to re-establish the short cycle upphase and stop the 30 min channel from rolling over.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:22:06 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:12:05 AM
A break below the 30 min channel support from today's lower high will likely abort the 30 min cycle upphase and spell trouble all the way up to the daily cycle timeframes. A break below 60 min channel support at 33.75 sets up a retest of light support at 33.65 and stronger support at 33.38-.44 QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:09:14 AM
Session lows here on ES and YM, GE and Russell2K futures. QQQ has lost its sideways upphase and is in a new downphase- Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:07:20 AM
10:05 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  10:05:02 AM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Our next play will probably be a long... stand by
As stated earlier, SPX 1092.50 would be my entry of choice but I'm not sure we'll get that low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:01:44 AM
Session high for ten year bonds, TNX -2.9 bps at 4.254%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  10:01:24 AM
Headlines:

10:00am U.S. JULY NEW HOME SALES DOWN 6.4% TO 1.13 MLN UNITS

10:00am U.S. JUNE NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.21MLN VS 1.33 MLN

10:00am U.S. JUNE NEW HOME SALES DOWN REVISED 5.6% VS 0.8% PREV

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:01:04 AM
VIX and TRIN intra-day charts with QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  9:59:14 AM
A 7.5B overnight repo replaces 6.5B expiring for a net 1B addition from the Fed's open market desk.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  9:58:10 AM
Me neither, Jane. The short cycle upphase is just sideways, as is the 30 min cycle upphase, and there's a lower high in place so far for QQQ at 34.15 overnight. If bulls can't exceed it and yesterday's 34.30 high, then the next downphase should be strong, possibly enough to begin threatening the ongoing daily cycle upphase.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  9:55:48 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... SPX 1096.75, -0.99
The SOX, while still negative, did a pretty good bounce off the bottom... that's why I tightened up the stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  9:53:47 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  9:50:46 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to SPX 1096.75 (just above the last swing high).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  9:40:38 AM
Still no oomph behind this 30 min cycle upphase. The short cycle upphase is still in progress but is beginning to sputter. 34.00 remains key support here, below which the short cycle upphase will abort early on QQQ, setting up a retest of 33.90 support. Current 30 min channel support is at 33.80.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  9:35:16 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPX 1095.76, stop 1097.75
We lost 3/4 point in the time it took me to type and post an entry... SPX 1095.76 was printing as the post hit the Market Monitor

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/25/200,  9:32:59 AM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Good morning... My bias still remains up for the intermediate-term, although as Keene and Jim said we may have to head lower first. A long entry from SPX 1092.50 would be wonderful, but that's one of those "perfect" setups that never seem to work out as expected, so we'll play it by ear, watching the short-term charts. Stay ready for a play either way this morning. I'll try to give advance notice.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  9:22:45 AM
Intraday QQQ chart at this Link : A short cycle upphase is in progress, with channel support at 33.99 currently. If bulls can hold the price above 34 past the cash open, the 30 min channel should begin to turn up. So far, as we can see here, the 30 min cycle upphase has been only sideways, getting very poor price traction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  9:18:16 AM
A 30 min cycle upphase is underway for NQ (QQQ proxy using pre-market data) but it's so far quite weak: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  9:12:33 AM
I'd never heard of it before, and can't describe the weird smell permeating our office. It's not the standard short circuit/ozone smell, but something new. I'm loving my new battery backup/surge protector, though.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/25/200,  9:09:46 AM
Jonathan, I believe it because we had a PC here in the office burst into flames last week. I have never seen a PC catch fire before. There is nothing inside them to burn but this one did. Something electrical shorted our and smoke was pouring out. Very unusual.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  9:00:10 AM
Equities have weakened, with NQ now -2.50 and QQQ flat at 34.08. YM and ES are still fractionally positive, as ten year treasury bonds, with TNX now down .9 bps at 4.274%. Gold is up 3.10 at 408, and crude is up .25 at 45.45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  8:52:11 AM
Back. No one will believe this, because I don't, but my office network router just burned out and actually began smoking. I'm now the only node plugged into the DSL modem, and will have to log out later on to configure the router that I'll be receiving later this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  8:31:00 AM
Ticker headlines being released:

8:30am U.S. JULY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 1.7% V. 1.2% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. JULY CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS UP 0.6%

8:30am U.S. JULY EX-TRANSPORTATION ORDERS UP 0.1%

8:30am U.S. JULY DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS UP 0.1%

8:30am U.S. JUNE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED 1.1% VS. 0.9%

8:30am U.S. JULY AIRCRAFT ORDERS UP 100.4%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  8:22:39 AM
I'm under the weather today and will most likely not be posting on the Market Monitor.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  8:16:49 AM
We await the 8:30 release of July durable orders, est. +1%, and the 10AM release of July New home sales, est. 1.3M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  8:15:04 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei sank into negative territory early in the overnight trading session, but broke out to the upside during the afternoon session, shooting above 11,100. The Nikkei closed higher by 144.69 points or 1.32%, at 11,130.02, with hopes that oil prices will continue trending down touted as one reason for the gain.

Auto manufacturers rose, with Mitsubishi Motors topping the list of gainers in that sector with a 13.3% gain. Techs gained. Banks were again in focus as Sumitomo Mitsui Financial group made a bid for UFJ, competing with Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial's offer, with some considering Sumitomo's superior to Mitsubishi Tokyo's. Some thought the offer too high, however, at a 23.3% premium to UFJ's Tuesday closing price, one going so far as to label Sumitomo Mitsui Financial "insane." Sumitomo Mitsui closed lower by 0.8%, and Mitsubishi Tokyo fell 4.4%, but UFJ climbed 3.1%.

Other Asian markets were mixed, although most were higher, with techs mostly gaining, too. The Taiwan Weighted was closed due to a typhoon. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.47%, and Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.61%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.16%, but China's Shanghai Composite dipped 0.36%.

Currently, European bourses turn in mixed performances, with Russia's Moscow Times being one of the declining bourses. Last night, two planes taking off from the same airport in Moscow crashed within minutes of each other, killing all of the almost 90 people on board the two aircraft. One pilot pressed a hidden hijack button before the plane disappeared from radar, but investigators withhold their opinions about an act of terrorism while investigations continue. Some feel terrorism ahead of this weekend's presidential elections in Chechnya could be responsible.

The ECB's President Trichet reassured investors that although he's remaining vigilant, rising oil prices won't cause the ECB to change its forecast for economic recovery. However, as oil prices climbed off yesterday's low, some European markets slipped off their earlier highs, with markets trying now to climb off the lows reached earlier this morning. Airlines were mixed, but auto manufacturers mostly gained as they did in Asia.

As of 6:50 EST when this report was first prepared, the FTSE 100 was higher by 5.70 points or 0.13%, at 4,413.20. The CAC 40 had risen 5.52 points or 0.15%, to 3,599.90. The DAX had risen 18.75 points or 0.50%, to 3,789.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/25/200,  8:15:00 AM
Equities are slightly higher this morning, ES trading 1098.75, NQ 1374, YM 10118 and QQQ +.07 at 34.15. Gold is up 2.90 to 407.80, silver -.003 to a session low of 6.565, bonds down .093 to 112.3281 for the 10-yr treasury future, and crude oil up .275 to 45.475.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/24/200,  12:25:56 AM
As I type, a Russian plane carrying 35 passengers and a crew of 8 has crashed, and a second Russian plan with 46 on board went missing from radar 3 minutes later. Russia holds elections this weekend, and some fear that terrorism may be the cause of both the crash and the suspected crash. Even if terrorism is blamed for the crash of one airline and the possible crash of another, if that terrorism is linked only to Russia's election, the impact on U.S. markets may not be as strong as it would be if there are other links. Futures don't appear to be reacting as I type, but the news may be fresh. Depending on what is discovered during the overnight session, this could impact markets or they could ignore the events.

Here's where the OEX ended the day: Link Here's another shot from the daily chart: Link Indecision.

The TRAN ended the day with some strength, printing a tall white candle that closed just above 3101.77. The BIX ended with some strength, too, printing another candle that sat on the former resistance line of its megaphone shape, with the BIX closing at a closing high not seen since March. The SOX and Russell 2000 did not show such strength, however, with the SOX falling again below the 50% retracement of the rally off the October 2002 low and with the Russell 2000 pushed back again from its test of its 200-ema. These indicator indices are working against each other. Indecision.

The five-minute OEX Keltner chart showed the OEX jammed up against next resistance near 535 at Tuesday's close, but Keltner support was trying to firm near 534.70 on that chart and did look firm near 533.80 on the fifteen-minute chart. Down looked more likely on one chart and up on the other.

Be careful with positions. Daily candles are beginning to show some upper shadows, suggesting that the OEX might be weakening. It's facing historical and Keltner resistance as well as MA resistance, but a push up to 540-541 can't be precluded, although it's looking less likely. Traders can watch that neutral triangle from the first chart in this post and base trades on a breakout, ready with quick stops if the breakout was false and the OEX soon reverses, but those traders could be whipsawed back and forth. I still don't feel good about long plays with those spiky daily candles. Watch what the Feds do with cash infusions tomorrow morning, as that's been something of a good guide lately. Watch the trend of the TRIN.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   8/24/200,  12:25:42 AM
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