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  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  6:28:00 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  6:07:39 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  4:59:48 PM
Recap of Friday's trades
Long SPX @ 1104.58 (held overnight)
Exit @ 1108.08, +3.50
Short SPX @ 1108.87
Exit 1109.27, -0.40
Long SPX @ 1108.78
Exit @ 1107.50, -1.28
Long SPX @ 1107.96
stop 1106 (hold over the weekend)
Total gain/loss for Friday = +1.82
Total gain/loss for the week = -6.14

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  4:20:42 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Day trade long Research in Motion (RIMM) at $63.00, stopped $62.83 ($-0.17, or -0.27%)

Recap of this week's trades at this Link

Will discuss the NTES puts and SOHU calls in this weekend's Ask the Analyst column. I consider this a synthetic hedge where I'm bearish one "like" stock, but trying to hedge the near-term damage with another "like" stock. If it doesn't start working, both will be gone.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  4:05:45 PM
Have a great weekend, everyone. If weather cooperates, I intend to hit the single tracks with my mountain bike and maybe paddle around in my new yellow kayak and spend some time with grandchildren and do my best to forget about the markets for a day and a half. By Sunday afternoon, I'll be back studying the charts. Give yourselves a break, too.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  4:01:28 PM
QQQ is retesting the broken support line from below here: Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:58:20 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPX 1107.96, stop 1106.00, hold over the weekend
I hate getting stopped out by a few hundredths of a point only to watch the index reverse itself. We have a pretty good buy signal going into the weekend. If there are no terror events over the weekend we could get a nice rally next week. I don't expect any events at the Republican convention (too much security)... it's more likely they will try to strike "soft" targets of value, especially oil refineries, which are spread out all over the place. I'm counting on the Republican Convention to give a lift to the markets next week.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  3:58:17 PM
If you'd gone long on the "confirming" OEX break this afternoon above the 8/02 high of 541.49, you'd have seen an entire 0.40 upside before the OEX turned down again, which was the reason behind my caution in my 14:15 post. Of course, I've been cautious since 535-537 while the OEX was creeping all the way up to today's almost 542 high. That creeping movement wouldn't have been good for a call play on the OEX, though, with volatility indices dropping all the time and days needed to accomplish those gains.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  3:56:06 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) 102.08 +0.21% .... 10-minute bar chart with this week's WEEKLY and DAILY Pivot levels. Outside of Wednesday afternoon's pop, was tight range of trade.

Will make a note of $44.75, or round $45.00 oil as a sentiment level.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  3:53:54 PM
QQQ update at this link. The 30 minute cycle upphase is sputtering again on the drop: Link

  James Brown   8/27/200,  3:53:45 PM
Hmm... interesting... The Biotech index (BTK) is breaking out over its simple 100 and 200-dma's as well as the round-number 500 mark.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  3:53:09 PM
Unless the TRAN does something big in the last few minutes of trading, it will end the day with a doji just under the 3110 resistance, just above the 3100 support. Classic indecision.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  3:51:17 PM
The SOX is pulling back, too, but like other indices, only minimally.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:48:04 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... 1107.50, -1.28
Can I take back the short from the top??? &:>)

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  3:46:34 PM
The BIX tests 360 again, at 360.00 as I type,pulling back (slightly) from its test of the major March swing high.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  3:43:35 PM
TRIN 0.94 .... with what volume there is. May close out right at 1.00 again.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:41:00 PM
MACD has crossed back up. Now can it hold?

  OI Technical Staff   8/27/200,  3:40:02 PM
To add Mark Davis to the writer option list:
Click "Help", "Product Updates", "Commentator Database" and follow the instructions.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  3:38:48 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert for Research in Motion (RIMM) here at $62.83 bid.

I thought we might get a little "power burst" in the QQQ above DAILY R2 with RIMM providing the strength, but that doesn't look like it is going to happen with just 20-minues left.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:38:28 PM
MACD is trying to cross back up... it's crunch time for our long play

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  3:34:37 PM
QQQ has finally broken the rising trendline connecting the lows since yesterday afternoon's 34.30 spike bottom. Support below this 34.50 level is at 34.44 and 34.40, with that 34.30 level stronger confluence support.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:33:31 PM
Here comes the potential buy signal with two consecutive CCI prints of -200 or greater, but we need MACD to turn back up and fast or we'll be stopped out.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  3:32:55 PM
The third trendline from the correlative-fan theory now crosses near 540.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:24:54 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Lower your stops... to 1107.50
We're risking a point but there is an area of congestion around 1107.50 and if we drop that low it could generate a strong buy signal. I'm hoping they will try to hold Dow 10200 into the close.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:16:45 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Lower your stops... to 1108.78 and break even

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  3:12:57 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:11:30 PM
Plenty of time left for this to play out... b-bands are getting very tight again so we should see the next move soon. I would think shorts must be nearing their pain threshold and time is running out for them.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  3:10:46 PM
Another session high for ES futures, but bulls aren't taking the ball and running the QQQ. Total volume is now 48.15M for QQQ according to IB- still extremely light.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:10:02 PM
Linda I couldn't resist playing the EOD short squeeze potential with tight stops. By going long and short at the same time we could just let the market decide. If we get stopped out of the long it will be for -0.40 and we'll be net zero for the trades but if a squeeze occurs we may get a big surge to the upside.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  3:05:20 PM
Here's where the SOX is with relationship to that 50% retracement off the October 2002 rally. Link Still no breakout on the SOX.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  3:04:09 PM
Session low for ten year note futures at 112.7812, just going negative for the first time today. TNX went out unchanged at 4.227%.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  3:02:59 PM
Still no break for the Qs, however. Just sitting below resistance on this fourth try.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  3:02:34 PM
Mark has to go shove the SPX up past the 200-sma. Smile. Congratulations, Mark, on that profitable long play earlier today.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  3:01:18 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  3:00:43 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) 102.23 +0.35% .... biggest volume spike of the session this past 1/2 hour.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:58:45 PM
Upper Keltner resistance on the OEX's 15-minute chart has now risen to 542.08.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:58:38 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1109.18

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:58:07 PM
30 and 60 min channel resistance lines up on that chart at 34.75, and it's close enough to the 34.80 confluence resistance zone discussed this week. It should prove to be a heavy overhang for any bounce or squeeze.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:56:44 PM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart at this Link.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:55:46 PM
SPX heads toward the 200-sma at 1111.21.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:54:15 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,211.25 .... frog's hair from DAILY R2 and WEEKLY R1 correlation.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:53:20 PM
VIX.X 14.69 .... session low.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:52:56 PM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 204.05 +0.42% .... edging green and just above their DAILY Pivot 203.74.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:52:24 PM
The BIX still hasn't broken its equal high.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:50:18 PM
QQQ is on its fourth run to this 34.63-.65 zone. The pattern of lows this afternoon is not higher however- just a flat range/rectangle offering no pattern-based clues as to the direction of the break. However, I note that it has been a very weak 30 min cycle downphase so far, and I'm still thinking that a short squeeze could be very easy to start with volume so low overall today.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:48:44 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.58 -1.08% .. could use another "3:00 rally" here at the DAILY Pivot.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:47:41 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... 1109.27, -0.40

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:42:00 PM
The BIX approached an equal-high level a few minutes ago, with yesterday's high at 360.41 and with the BIX's high so far 360.34. The BIX isn't far below that now, at 360.30.

  Jim Brown   8/27/200,  2:41:44 PM
Interesting comments from Art Cashin today. With the Republican convention in New York City most trading desks at the NYSE will be only half staffed with the other half at other locations. The preparations for a potential terrorist attack are in full swing. He gave an example of one desk which normally has 30 people that will only have 8. If today is the lightest volume day of the year then what will we have next week?

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:39:03 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPX 1108.78, stop 1108.28

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:38:17 PM
The OEX is still hugging the midline of the ascending regression channel it's been in since about 8/16. It's still above the third trendline drawn in order to see how it performs according to the correlative-fan theory.

Pay special attention to the SPX, as it's closely approached its 200-sma today, with that average at 1111.20, and the SPX high at 1109.31. That was a close approach.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:32:14 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... SPX 1108.87, stop 1109.27

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:30:49 PM
According to Interactive Brokers, Nymex crude went out at 43.10.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:28:07 PM
So far the current 30 minute cycle downphase, despite launching from a lower oscillator high on a bearish divergence, is weaker than the upphase that preceded it: Link . A break below 34.50 here could change that, but so far that line had held for each downside test since the upside break at 10AM.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:27:46 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out... @ 1108.08, +3.50

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:25:48 PM
Day trade long alert .... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $63.00 here, stop $62.70, target $64.20.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:25:37 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1108.08

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:23:18 PM
No wonder Mark needed a five-minute break. He's been working hard to shove the SPX higher today and must have needed to put his shoulder to the task again, because this spike came just as he left. Must be tough shouldering that index up all by himself.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:20:31 PM
My internet connection is very choppy and my posts are running behind. If I blip out here or go silent, I assure you that it's not to drink beer or play shuffleboard.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:19:33 PM
YM and ES futures broke to new highs, but not QQQ, making a 3rd trip to the session highs.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:19:08 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:19:00 PM
And there's the push above the 8/02 high. You can slap it back but you can't keep it back. Here's where shorts either rush to cover or sellers overwhelm buyers. Let's see which it is.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:15:50 PM
stepping away for a few minutes... on a normal day I would fully expect to be stopped out @ 1107.58 when I return but this day has been far from normal.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:15:43 PM
That push higher, within a few cents of the 8/02 high, got slapped right back down, but let's see if there's any follow-through. Each push is to a higher high and the ascending trendine off yesterday afternoon's low has not yet been broken, so the optimistic among you must think the rest of us are crazy to be worrying about a downturn.

As I mentioned earlier, I expected a push up to test that 8/02 high and maybe--I'm afraid now--even a little spike above it as big-money people test the waters. That could mean that gains could accelerate or could mean that markets reverse at that point. Although I could be very wrong and would have been prepared to suggest (reluctantly) a long play on a confirming move above that 8/02 high earlier today, I feel even less convinced that it would be a good idea at this time of day. I think the OEX could climb and, who knows, we could even see a spike up toward the 200-dma, but this just doesn't feel good today.

That third trendline from the correlative-fan theory is now crossing at about 539.30-539.70, depending on how it's drawn, so watch for a possible break below that line. There's still 538.50 support to worry about, though, for those in bearish positions.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:14:03 PM
QQQ update at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:12:51 PM

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:08:29 PM
Now that was a hard slap back... I almost issued a short signal at the top but hesitated about 10 seconds too long. Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:05:57 PM
VIX.X 14.81 -0.67%

QQQ $34.61

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  2:05:12 PM
TRIN 0.82 ... session low

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:03:58 PM
I saw that movie Jim. Are you covering your ears and screaming or thinking about bravely grabbing the helm Sinbad style?

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  2:02:38 PM
Was that it? Was that the big push (up to 541.29) and the resultant action? If so, that wasn't much of a push or much of a reaction. The OEX retraced most of that gap higher at 1:15, but didn't fall beneath the gap, so evidence remains mixed. Those breakaway gaps (gaps that break out of a pattern or above resistance) don't usually fill that way.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  2:01:58 PM
Sellers did return at Dow 10200 but they've only been able to knock it back about 5 points... hardly a meaningful rejection.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  2:00:41 PM
IB reports QQQ volume at 40M right here, extremely light for this time of day.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  1:59:50 PM
As my desire to be watching anything but this sideways range grows, I can't help but imagine that da-boyz and other heavy hitters are feeling the same thing, and are far more likely to act on it. A place in the Hamptons can be a powerful draw on a Friday afternoon. With volume low, I'm wondering if the locals aren't eyeing the inevitable short stops lurking above the session highs- perhaps a low volume stop run for a Friday afternoon?

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:58:52 PM
This week is acting more like an opex week than last week, no?

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:54:06 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1107.58

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:52:04 PM
Here's where we are with our long play... I'm considering raising the stop to 1107.58 to lock in a +3 pt gain. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  1:39:35 PM
30 min channel resistance is lined up at 34.74 with 60 min resistance, while support is first at 34.40 for the 30 min channel and then 34.35 for the 60 on QQQ. The short cycle oscillators are perfectly chopped up, and I'm starting to talk to myself as this interminable range grinds inexorably onward.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  1:38:34 PM
The OEX is falling back into the gap, but hasn't yet completely closed it. It is falling back below the Keltner resistance it had gapped above on both the five- and 15-minute charts. I wouldn't call this action exactly that of a stop run being "slapped back," so that, like everything else today, the results of this test are confusing as yet. The OEX still hasn't topped the intraday high of 8/02, with that number at 541.49. It hasn't broken through the bottom trendline drawn according to the correlative fan theory, either, with that trendline now crossing at about 539.20-539.50, depending on how the line is drawn. Mixed signals.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  1:32:12 PM
200-day SMA alert .... Freeport McMoran (FCX),/b. $37.03 +1.36%

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:29:47 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  1:29:11 PM
Nymex crude 2-day chart at this Link . Currently quoted at 42.95, -.15 or -.35%.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:28:00 PM
Linda I'm wondering if that was your stop running push. CCI printed 3 consecutive readings over +200, the last one was almost +500 and I'm amazed we aren't dropping like a rock.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:24:38 PM
We're going to follow this up with stops (if we get the chance)

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  1:22:56 PM
34.50-.53 QQQ remains key support, both on an intraday trendline basis and on the 30 min chart as rising support below the entirety of this uptrend. The outlook is bullish above, bearish below, with the caveat that bulls need to get to a test of 34.80 quickly- this is beginning to look like the chop zone preceding a daily cycle high as QQQ continues the sideways drift.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  1:20:24 PM
Intel (INTC) $22.25 +2.15% .... gets a bid above WEEKLY R1 $22.15.

Did this briefly Tuesday morning then failed. Monitor for SIMILARITY or DIVERGENCE here.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  1:20:00 PM
And there's the stop-running move to the upside, within the expected time frame. (See my 12:48 post.) If it gets slapped down too far, too fast, that tells big-money people that there are still too many sellers lurking overhead. That's a danger for you in bullish positions, so watch carefully. So far, the OEX has just come back to test that breakaway gap (with breakaway gaps usually not closed) and to test the breakout level, but be careful if the gap is closed and the OEX continues to head lower.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  1:17:34 PM
TRIN 0.88 ... new session low

VIX.X 14.85 -0.4% ...

QQQ $34.62

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  1:17:32 PM
We're looking at the largest volume spike of the day on QQQ, but it only matched the previous high without breaking it.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:17:21 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1107.08

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  1:09:23 PM
The OEX's 15-minute chart shows resistance firming up a bit more from 540.92-541.05. That doesn't mean that it has to hold, but it looks firmer than it has looked. The five-minute chart suggests there might be a test of that resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  1:06:10 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  1:02:04 PM
Keene I hope you're right. This long play has tested my patience to the max (I don't have much patience). It sure would be nice to snag a decent gain out of all this waiting. I'm wondering if a break of Dow 10200 will bring back the sellers again or trigger some buying... 8 more points and we're there.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  12:53:59 PM
12:50 PM Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  12:51:53 PM
30 min chart of QQQ shows the negative divergence following through with a downphase started from a lower oscillator high: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  12:48:50 PM
Session low for euro futures here, down .77% to 1.2008.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  12:48:09 PM
This morning, the Dow came within a couple of points of its 8/02 high, with both the SPX and the OEX also approaching but not quite touching their respective highs for that day. I'm wondering about a spike up to test those highs again, maybe exceeding them by just a touch, in a stop-running push sometime in the next hour or so, so that MM's can see what happens--selling or buying.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  12:42:40 PM
We're storing up energy here for whichever way it goes... sideways for 2 1/2 hours now

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  12:40:12 PM
The OEX's five-minute Keltner channels narrow down, looking as if the OEX may be readying for a breakout up toward 541 again or down toward 539.66. The positioning of the Keltner charts gives a slight nod toward 541, but it's only slight.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  12:40:07 PM
The 30 min cycles are rolling over here from a much lower high. A break below 34.50-.53 should see downside acceleration and would set up a retest of 34.30 QQQ.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  12:38:06 PM
Google (GOOG) $106.90 -0.94% .... trades with options starting today.

Sep $110 calls GOQIB are most active at 4,629

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  12:37:59 PM
Having trouble with my internet connection again- stock feeds are fine, but my browser is taking forever to update.

Updated QQQ chart at this Link.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  12:34:36 PM
I don't know if a hug of that trendline is such a good thing this time, Mark, as it's keeping bulls and bears both in suspense!

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  12:32:50 PM
CCI just printed a -200 reading and we're right at the lower b-band. I'm going to be really ticked off if we get stopped out and then immediately reverse higher. I keep thinking about Linda's stop running push and wondering which way it will go (if it happens today).

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  12:23:53 PM
Linda a hug is a good thing, he said in his best Martha voice

  James Brown   8/27/200,  12:23:52 PM
The rally in L-3 Communications (LLL) is now into its sixth day in a row and shares have broken through resistance at the $62 level. A couple of days ago LLL announced it had won a contract for an automated air cargo explosive detection system for the T.S.A. (U.S. Transportation Security Administration).

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  12:21:45 PM
Despite what that 15-minute close below the midline of the smallest Keltner channel suggested, the OEX hasn't yet dropped toward lower support but instead prefers to hug that midline.

  James Brown   8/27/200,  12:19:19 PM
EBAY is down 31 cents to $86.10. This is the first down day in six sessions.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  12:17:29 PM
B-bands are as tight as they have been all day so watch out for a sudden move here. Benchmarking... SPX = 1106.84
Hopefully we won't get stopped out and this next move will be to the upside.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  12:15:29 PM
The gold slam continues- now down 6.40 at 403.20, -1.32%. 398-402 is key confluence support below.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  12:14:28 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
If we get stopped out of our long play be ready to go long again on a moment's notice. I would suggest using SPTIB (SPX Sept 1110 call)

  James Brown   8/27/200,  12:14:08 PM
Semiconductor maker KLAC has been upgraded to a "buy" for the second time in two days. Shares finally rallied through the $38.00 level and have broken through the top of its descending channel.

  James Brown   8/27/200,  12:09:55 PM
Biotech Chattem Inc (CHTT) is up 6.88% and pushing through the $30.00 mark on big volume after issuing positive earnings guidance. Shares are very close to striking new all-time highs.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  12:09:31 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  12:06:52 PM
Gold is down 4.80 to 404.80 here, -1.17%. HUI is -.3% at 202.56, XAU -.19% at 93.12. The sellling appears limited to the metal so far. I believe that the London exchange closed at noon, but am not certain.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  12:03:36 PM
stepping outside for a breath of fresh air... don't let us get stopped out guys &:>)

  James Brown   8/27/200,  12:03:26 PM
Phelps Dodge (PD) is seeing some follow through (+1.4%) on top of yesterday's bullish breakout over resistance at $80-82.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  12:02:34 PM
During the last 15-minute period, the OEX had a 15-minute close below the trendline at the middle of the smallest Keltner channel, suggesting that the OEX now has vulnerability down to 539.90.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  12:02:13 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  12:00:02 PM
We're in danger of being stopped out here... SPX is only 0.7 of a point above our stop, but as I said earlier, if we take out the swing lows in the 1106.40 area I don't like the risk reward. Our stop @ 1106.08 also closely corresponds with the uptrend line from yesterday afternoon's lows.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  11:57:09 AM
This is shaping up as a pretty steep negative divergence for the 30 minute cycle upphase on QQQ so far: Link

  Keene Little   8/27/200,  11:56:20 AM
Well Mark, your stop should be OK now--the uptrend line has moved above your stop. Whew! With this fast-moving market, that was close!

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  11:54:25 AM
I'm still bullish on the daily cycle upphase, but that break to 34.66 wasn't much of a higher high if the bulls lose it here. I'd qualify that as a nominal new high, really not enough to re-confirm the daily cycle upphase. If the next 30 min cycle downphase doesn't launch from much closer to at least 34.80, then we're going to need to watch for a lower 30 min cycle low below yesterday's 34.30 level.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  11:53:51 AM
So far, the 15-minute OEX Keltner chart shows the OEX finding resistance at the channel line that usually stops it, just as the bears would want to see happen. It also shows the OEX so far finding support (now being challenged) on fifteen-minute closes just where bulls would want to see it find support, with that channel line currently at 540.46. Still a tie, although that Keltner-style bearish divergence continues.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:52:22 AM
Despite all the microanalyzing today we're still within spitting distance of the highs... perhaps that last bout of selling was triggered by a touch of Dow 10200

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  11:46:59 AM
There was a pickup in volume on the upside break that was immediately countered by an even stronger sell program of 1M shares in the following 100 tick candle for QQQ, with price now testing the line from the upside.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:45:50 AM
We've now retraced the entire "move"... not sure I like that

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:42:51 AM
Here comes the move... to the upside as Jonathan predicted. Dow just made a new HOD and SPX took out the last swing high but is stalling just short of a new HOD. The move amounted to about +1 SPX point and is now getting slapped back fairly hard (fairly hard being a relative term based on today's action)

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  11:40:23 AM
Let's look at the correlative-fan theory again and see what it tells us about when the rally off the 8/13 low will be over. Remember that the correlative fan theory says that the first movement during a rally forms a trendline too steep to be maintained. That one breaks, and a new trendline is formed. That's usually too steep to be maintained, too, and it's broken and a third one forms. It's on the break of the third trendline that the rally has ended and the trend reversed. While it's always subjective to choose which three trendlines are the trendlines, this theory has actually worked rather well over the last few weeks: Link Currently, this chart suggests that it will require a break under 539 before this trendline is broken. However, remember the 240-minute 100/130-ema's just under that. If that lower trendline included the candle shadow from 8/25 instead of tracking the candle bodies, the trendline would not cross until the 240-minute 130-ema was also crossed. Right now, there's no question of either version being crossed, as the OEX is rising instead, toward a test of the 8/02 high.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  11:39:53 AM
Nymex crude oil down .35 to 42.75 here.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:34:36 AM
We're flatlining again... setting up for the next move (they haven't been too big so don't hold your breath). I'm doing this more out of boredom than anything else. Let's see how far this next move goes (and which direction).
Benchmarking... SPX = 1107.03

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  11:28:13 AM
The 100-tick QQQ chart Link shows what appears to be a neutral pennant in progress here between 34.55 and 34.61 QQQ. This being a continuation pattern, the move should break to the upside, but the shape of the short cycle downphase, oriented bearishly so far, suggests otherwise. My guess is for an upside break, but we'll see which trendline lets go first, preferably with a confirming volume spike when it occurs.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:23:45 AM
Keene I show the uptrend line from yesterday's low currently sitting @ 1106.04 (cash index)... sheesh, I have my stop set 4 cents too high! &:>)

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  11:17:51 AM
The OEX sure doesn't want to drop below the midline of this ascending channel: Link This channel rises within the descending channel off the year's high.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:16:27 AM
for you triangle lovers... Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:10:43 AM
SPX is stalling just short of the last swing high @ 1107.61. We are right at the upper b-band and need to start walking up it to get things going to the upside

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  11:10:21 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  11:03:34 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jim Brown   8/27/200,  11:03:14 AM
Only 650 million shares have traded across all markets. This may not be a record low volume but when you consider most of it came in the first 30 min it shows how slow trading really is.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:02:55 AM
B-bands are tightening and CCI and MACD have flatlined... we should see a move here pretty soon

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  11:00:23 AM
Jim I'm nearly cross-eyed from watching every tick this week... TGIF

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:58:41 AM
The SOX-dicator and TRIN are both still pointing up, though not strongly

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:56:43 AM
If held down and made to confess, I'd have to say that I favor the bearish side, but am terribly afraid of an upside push instead. Also, I rather suspect that any OEX decline could get stopped near 538.50, although there's a possibility that a decline to 537 could be seen, too. The reason behind those numbers is shown on a 240-minute chart. Today, I've been mentioning the daily 100/130-ema's, but those averages on the 240-minute chart have been important the last couple of weeks, too. Here they are, with the 100-ema in blue: Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:55:48 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1106.08
If we take out the last two swing lows in the 1106.40 area I don't want to be long anymore, so let's lock in a +1.5 point gain. We can always reenter lower if conditions look right.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:55:07 AM
Need to step away for 20 minutes here.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:52:45 AM
The short cycle upphase has stalled for QQQ, but a downphase has yet to kick off. A break below the 34.50-.53 confluence should do it, and will target 34.40 and .45 support for starters: Link

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:45:20 AM
The OEX drops back to the daily 100/130-ema's: Link If you favor the bullish side and think you have evidence to support your belief, then this is the spot from which to expect a bounce, so a possible long entry. If you favor the bearish side and think you have evidence to support your belief, then this is the spot from which to expect a rollover, so a possible bearish entry. TRIN isn't tell us anything at all. I'm seeing that potential bearish divergence, Keltner style, on OEX five- and fifteen-minute charts and also seeing the TRAN and BIX not gaining with other indices, but that's slim evidence on which to base a trade. Not enough evidence for me.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:42:18 AM
The TRAN just sits near yesterday's close, not moving much either direction and printing a doji so far.

After yesterday's approach to its major swing high from March, the BIX shows a small decline today, but it's not moving much, either, having tested the 360 level but not able to sustain it.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:37:21 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:36:04 AM
We just got a nice little pop off the SPX 1107 level... the 1-min chart is trying to print a buy signal but not quite there yet

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:31:31 AM
Session low for Nymex crude at 42.95, -.15 or .29%.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:30:55 AM
On the OEX's five-minute chart, Keltner resistance is trying to firm just above 541, and we may soon get to see if it's strong enough to hold. The tentative Keltner-style bearish divergence continues to form, but can still be erased by a breakout that continues long enough.

The OEX remains above the daily 100/130-ema's but below the 8/02 high.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:30:46 AM
The daily cycle upphase had a higher low yesterday and today wrapped it up with a higher high. The 30 min cycle upphase still looks good, and will be itself confirmed if we get a higher low above 34.40, preferably above prior resistance at the 34.50-.53 QQQ confluence zone.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  10:28:50 AM
Phelps Dodge (PD) $83.60 +1.82% ... gets a trade at WEEKLY R2 $83.45.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  10:27:49 AM
10:25 Market Watch at this Link

  Jim Brown   8/27/200,  10:27:46 AM
Mark, I doubt we wil lsee 1080 again. With a potential rally ahead of us once the Republican convention gets safely underway I think 1095 would be the best we could hope for on a pullback today. After today I am switching to the long side.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:27:14 AM
I'm as surprised as Jim mentioned being that the SOX is posting gains this morning, particularly with INTC's update ahead next week and Bear Stearns making negative comments about one component of their business, too. Still, those of you who have been reading my Market Wraps know that I've been putting a lot of store on the 50% retracement of the rally off the October 2002 low as a benchmark, with that retracement line near 386, and the SOX hasn't been able to break above that or 390 level today: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:27:03 AM
Short cycle support is at 34.50 QQQ here, just below prior resistance of 34.53. 30 min channel support has risen to 34.33.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:25:13 AM
Jim if we head back down to 1080 from here that would make about as pretty a (potential) inverse H&S as I've ever seen. So pretty in fact that I'd bet people would start buying before it gets down to 1080. This is rank speculation but I'm bored.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:22:32 AM
I'm seeing some tentative bearish divergence, Keltner style, on the OEX five- and fifteen-minute charts, but that divergence can still be erased if the OEX lingers near the high long enough for Keltner channel lines to catch up. The mid-channel level on the OEX's Keltner chart is 540.51, with the OEX just above that level, but still testing it. It won't be until today's close until we know whether the OEX will leave just a candle spike piercing that mid-channel level or whether it will have closed above it. The TRIN isn't going to give us any clue as to what's going to happen, either. I still don't have a strong opinion, either, as to whether the OEX will confirm this breakout by moving above the 8/02 high or whether it's going to roll back down through the daily 100/130-ema's and then below 539. If you've got a strong bias and think you have the information to support it, go for it here near stop-out points for both bullish and bearish plays, but I'm not convinced of either direction just yet.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:22:01 AM
The last dip was the largest 100-tick sell program of the day for QQQ. Just under 2M shares within 100 ticks. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:17:17 AM
Nymex crude is down to 43.25 here, +.15 or .35%.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:16:57 AM
100-tick QQQ chart with fibonacci retracement at this Link.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  10:15:02 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:14:51 AM
Note the location of the 50 and 200 smas for SPX (on the left side of the chart)... then note where we are currently on the right side... Link
A break above the 200sma @ 1111.20 would be significant in that it might bring some funds (and all their extra cash) back into the market

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:12:34 AM
The Fed replaced the entire 11B overnight repo for no net change today, preserving yesterday's large infusion of funds.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:11:32 AM
The retest of 34.53, then of 34.60 held. Rising 30 min channel resistance is up to 34.68, but next strong confluence resistance is overhead at 34.80.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:10:09 AM
The OEX hit the Keltner line that usually stops advances on the five-minute chart and 15-minute chart. It hasn't turned down far, though, and it's not clear yet whether it will be stopped by that line or break out to move toward the next one, at 541.50 resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:05:57 AM
There was an increase in volume on the break above 34.60, but not enough- price is pulling back as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  10:04:49 AM
Session highs lighting up here for GE, INTC, ER, YM, NQ, ES... across the board.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:04:49 AM
The OEX is breaking above the daily 100/130-ema's, but hasn't yet confirmed by a move above the 8/02 high of 541.49.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  10:03:54 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,107.34 , QQQ $34.56.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:03:45 AM
There goes 1107... now let's see what happens (that was the largest green candle of the day)

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  10:03:23 AM
For reference, the OEX's 50-dma is at 538.76.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  10:02:36 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Note: Beginning September 4 (Saturday) thru September 6 (Monday) I will be on vacation. At this point, I don't see making any changes other than perhaps writing an additional 3 covered calls on the SWC position.

Based on any changes to the bullish % indications between now and next Friday, may also dictate some changes, but not at this time. I will outline some various strategies I would implement if a level were traded in current open positions if they were traded.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  10:01:46 AM
This is frustrating... if we can just get a print above 1107 I think that may start some short covering, but that's a big if right now.

  Jim Brown   8/27/200,  10:01:06 AM
Comments from Greenspan: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:58:46 AM
QQQ retesting the line: Link

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:58:33 AM
Neither side yet wins this tug-of-war. I do note, as Jane or Jim may have already mentioned, that the advdec line is climbing. TRIN isn't dropping, though. The VIX is, but it's soon going to be dropping to a level that might spell trouble for bulls.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:56:49 AM
Session low for gold, -1 at 408.60. QQQ is now holding above 34.53 but without much vigor or volume.

  Jim Brown   8/27/200,  9:55:45 AM
Greenspan comments should be out in about 5 min.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:52:18 AM
The OEX tests the daily 100/130-ema's, at 540.40 and 540.37, respectively.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  9:51:00 AM
VIX.X 14.88 -0.2% ... QCharts' daily pivot is 14.91.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:51:00 AM
The volume isn't there to confirm a breakout for QQQ- I'd prefer to see a break of 34.60- that looks like the more significant line in the sand.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:47:26 AM
Horizontal resistance being tested again, but so far on declining volume.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  9:47:18 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops... to 1104.58 and break even

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:47:06 AM
The OEX's 15-minute chart is showing resistance trying to firm near 540.40-540.50, with support trying to firm, but looking less firm than resistance, near 538.85-539.15.

  Jim Brown   8/27/200,  9:46:29 AM
Michigan Sentiment was 95.9 and over the 94.0 expected

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:45:38 AM
So far, today's trading pattern (if you can call a few minutes of trading a pattern) fits with the possibility of the OEX completing an evening star formation today. That's due to where the OEX opened and its lack of follow-through to the upside. Even a small follow-through to the upside, if reversed, would not undo the possibility, but what needs to happen now to complete the formation is for the OEX to drop the rest of the day, retracing at least half of Wednesday's tall white candle. I'm not feeling bearish this morning and have no idea yet whether the OEX would round down into another shoulder for an inverse H&S or just bump above the 8/02 high and keep climbing. Neither possibility is particularly bearish, however. Even a rounding down into a possible shoulder for an inverse H&S isn't bearish on the intermediate term . . . unless the OEX keeps going and dips below the shoulder level.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  9:44:21 AM
This is hardly an inspiring open for either side. It looks like they are waiting for the 9:45 numbers before placing their bets.

  Jeff Bailey   8/27/200,  9:43:44 AM
Coach (COH) $41.71 +1.78% ... replacing Charter One Financial (CF) $44.43 +0.02% in the S&P 500.

Additional shuffling info at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:42:39 AM
The 34.53 line held as resistance, and the short cycle oscillators, still technically in an upphase, are looking very listless and vulnerable here on QQQ. Volume is very light. Perhaps the 9:45 sentiment data will get things moving.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:40:43 AM
So far, the OEX looks vulnerable down to 538.80-539.00.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:36:52 AM
According to 15-minute Keltner charts, bears want to see 15-minute closes beneath 539.78 and preferably beneath 538.80, while bulls want to see 15-minute closes above 539.78 and preferably above 540.45. Be wary of drawing conclusions ahead of the 9:45 numbers and the completion of the first retracement of the day.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:34:25 AM
Horizontal resistance is at 34.53 QQQ, being tested here. Link

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:33:42 AM
QCharts is running behind again, at least on the server I'm using. I'm trying that old switching game now.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:32:30 AM
The OEX opens just below the daily 100/130-ema's.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:30:20 AM
Session highs for Nymex crude oil here at 43.525, up .425 or .99%.

  Jane Fox   8/27/200,  9:28:53 AM
Dateline WSJ - MOSCOW – Russian officials Friday said one of two airliners that crashed near-simultaneously was brought down by a terrorist act and that explosives were found in the plane's wreckage, while a Web site connected to Islamic militants claimed the action was connected to Russia's fight against Chechen separatists.

Although the developments raised questions about security for the airlines that crisscross the sprawling country, Russia did not order a halt to air traffic, as the U.S. did after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The two Russian planes, with 90 people aboard, went down within minutes of each other on Tuesday night. Despite the suspicious timing and the fact that the crashes took place just five days before an election in Chechnya opposed by separatists, Russian officials had said other possible explanations, including bad fuel and human error, were being looked into.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  9:27:50 AM
So, we had no big surprise in the GDP number. This morning, we'll have to puzzle out the reaction to NVLS's earnings measured against the Banc of America's negative statements about the sector yesterday and Bear Stearn's downgrading on European chip-related stock STMicroelectronics based on poor NOR Flash Memory outlook, with INTC and AMD also being top NOR players. We need the SOX to cooperate if broad market gains are going to be sustained. However, a breakout above the daily 100/130-ema's, confirmed by a break above the 8/02 high of 541.49, would tend to negate the belief that the OEX might roll down into another shoulder for an inverse H&S formation, while a roll down beneath those averages, currently up to 540.39, would tend to continue the belief that might happen. I expect the OEX to open somewhere near those averages. Trade carefully and be ready to exit if markets whipsaw. Pay attention to breadth indicators, and be wary of long positions if you see the VIX dip below 14.00.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:24:12 AM
We await Michigan sentiment at 9:45AM, est. 94.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  9:11:24 AM
QQQ 2-day chart with trendlines: Link

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  9:09:37 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Lower your stops... to 1102.50
This is a precautionary move only... SPX futures are now showing a net +1.7 gain since GDP numbers came out and are steadily bleeding higher. Our long play looks quite safe at this point but I want to avoid any opening volatility. I expect to cinch our stops back up to 1104.58 and break even soon after the market opens.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:58:11 AM
Gold is down a dime to a session low of 409.5, ditto euro futures at 1.2064 -.31%. Equities are slightly higher, QQQ +.08 to 34.46.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:47:05 AM
I'm not following the ES or S&P closely enough to have a feel for it. There's approx 5-7 points of leeway on the NQ at these levels, which would equate to roughly 1.5-3 ES points, so a stop 4 points below current levels should be equivalent for the closest stop. Not my preferred methodology- I'll defer to you as to stop placement on this S&P play ;)

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  8:41:41 AM
I think I may lower our stops just a bit to avoid any opening volatility. Right now they're set @ 1104.58... probably a bit too close to the action eh? (Did I just say eh?... Chalk it up to marrying a Canadian girl)

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:38:54 AM
Mark, the 30 min cycle upphase is still intact. If the bulls can avoid a sustained move down to channel support - 34.25 QQQ, 1101 ES - then the upward bias will remain justified.

  Mark Davis   8/27/200,  8:37:18 AM
Jonathan I was watching as the numbers came out and SPX futures popped about a point from -0.40 to +0.60. I was hopeful but now they're giving back a bit. I have a vested interest in this one with our long play being held overnight (grin).

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:34:04 AM
TNX is up to 4.194%, now down 3.3 bps as bonds advance slightly. The markets have just yawned in response to the data. Equities have pulled back to their pre-8:30 levels, but there was little movement overall.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:32:35 AM
Virtually no change in the futures- bonds are slightly lower, equities slightly higher.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:31:32 AM
Current ticker headlines:




8:30am U.S. Q2 PCE UNCHANGED AT 3.2%, CORE PCE AT 1.7%





  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:30:33 AM
Session high for bond futures, with TNX currently down 3.7 bps to 4.19%.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  8:27:49 AM
The 30 min cycle is up, as is the daily cycle. For QQQ, channel support is at 34.25. On the NQ daily chart (proxy for the QQQ), the rising uptrend support line below what this week has been a sideways flag is at 1378-80. My feeling is that this sideways range is a bull flag within the daily cycle upphase- but for that to be valid, we'll need to see 1378-80 NQ hold (34.10-.20 QQQ) as support, and the uptrend in price to resume today, Monday at the very latest.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  7:50:25 AM
We await the 8:30 releases of Preliminary GDP for Q2, est. 2.7%, preliminary chain deflator, est. 3.2% and at 9:45AM, Michigan sentiment, est. 94.

  Jonathan Levinson   8/27/200,  7:48:35 AM
Equities are flat to higher, ES 1104.5, NQ 1385, YM 10172 and QQQ +.05 at 34.43. Gold is up .60 to 410.20, silver +.015 at 6.686, bonds +.17% at 112.9844, and crude oil +.325 at 43.425.

  Linda Piazza   8/27/200,  7:08:28 AM
Good morning. Before the Nikkei's open, market watchers learned that the jobless rate had risen to 4.9% in July, up from June's 4.6%, that the core CPI was down 0.2% over the year-ago level, but also that wage-earners' household spending was up 2.9% in July from the year-ago level. Through the early morning session, the Nikkei coiled in a 40-point range, about 20 points either side of the flat-line level, before breaking to the upside and then climbing through the rest of the day. The Nikkei closed higher by 80.26 points or 0.72%, at 11,209.59, in its highest close since August 2.

Chip stocks fell after a Banc of America Securities analyst lowered its rating on a number of chip stocks, saying that the cycle in semis peaked during the current quarter. Car manufacturers were mixed. Toyota Motor announced a plan for a kind of one-stop shopping. At affiliated dealerships, shoppers can purchase investment trusts, bonds and other instruments while they're choosing a car, with the plan marking the company's intention to enter the securities brokerage business. NTT DoCoMo and Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group both gained after announcing news related to share buy backs or redemptions: NTT DoCoMo has already bought back 1.82 million shares while Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group said it will redeem 40,700 preferred shares on October 1.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.27%. South Korea's Kospi closed near the flat-line level, up 0.01%, even though its largest bank, Kookman Bank, tumbled more than 4% after developments related to an already-known accounting scandal. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.17%. Hong Kong's GDP rose a greater-than-expected 2.6% for the quarter, with the government raising its forecast for 2004's growth from the former 6% estimate to 7.5%. The Hang Seng rose 0.27%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.03%, with the 1,320.614 close only 8 points off a three-year low, the bottom of the roughly 1,300-1,800 range in which it's traded through those three years.

Currently, European bourses also turn in mixed performances, with the three commonly followed on these pages well off their highs of the day. Germany's August consumer confidence index fell 3 points, but economists had expected worse. Consumer confidence also fell in the U.K., to a -5 from July's -3. Tech stocks decline this morning, following through on weakness in Asia. In addition to the Banc of America calling, Bears Stearns downgraded STMicroelectronics, with poor NOR Flash Memory pricing being blamed. One article includes Intel and AMD among top NOR players. A German newspaper reports on employee developments in the German auto industry, including a General Motors German division's plan to lengthen employee hours and a Volkswagen agreement by top management to two-year freezes on pay increases. Volkswagen wants the union to agree to trim wage costs by 30% by 2011, too. Performance was mixed in the sector. In stock-specific news, Airbus scored a deal to sell six of its A380 planes and two other of its jets to Thai Airways.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 traded up 6.70 points or 0.15%, at 4,460.60. The CAC 40 traded lower by 2.11 points or 0.06%, at 3,627.73. The DAX traded lower by 8.97 point or 0.23%, at 3,823.31.

  Jeff Bailey   8/26/200,  11:43:13 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.16 -0.29% .... eyballing correlative DAILY S2 and MONTHLY Pivot.

  Jeff Bailey   8/26/200,  11:36:10 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.19 -0.25% (30-minute delayed) .... trades DAILY S1.

  Linda Piazza   8/26/200,  9:39:09 PM
Doji at resistance: that's what we got on the OEX as well as on the SPX, Dow, Nasdaq, and TRAN in Thursday's trading. Other than known historical S/R and the 50-dma near the OEX's doji on Thursday, here's another type of resistance the OEX faces, with the blue line being the daily 100-ema and the purple, the 130-ema: Link I scrolled back through the OEX's daily chart to find other examples of the OEX climbing to meet these averages when they converged so tightly, as it was my first impression that such a tight convergence would firm up the barrier against the OEX's advance. That's usually what it means on Keltner channel lines. I found first that the OEX seldom gets this near the averages when they converge so tightly. It's usually repelled from advances or declines far before it actually touches the averages, as if that barrier is not only strong but also has some kind of polarity that repels the OEX. That seemed to support my theory. However, in October 1999 (See how far I had to go back?), the OEX did approach those averages and did push through them: Link Note that the OEX had been climbing strongly on that occasion, too, when it approached these averages, but some differences in that approach and this one do exist. The OEX pierced those averages before the close of the first day it approached them, falling back but closing right under the averages. The next day, it opened and climbed above them. No doji. Scrolling back through the chart, I found that throughout much of 1998, those averages converged tightly, with the OEX moving back and forth across them both directions, usually hesitating near them a day or two or more, finding resistance at them and turning down, finding support at them and pulling up, so that they did appear to serve as S/R, but not as a nearly impassable barrier as I had thought they might.

Still, the influence of these averages has been apparent over the last couple of days, so traders can use them as benchmarks tomorrow. A push above them would be an indication that the OEX was not going to follow through on the potential reversal signal created with Wednesday's doji following the previous day's tall white candle. A rollover beneath them would be an indication that the OEX might produce a tall red candle, a third candle for an evening-star formation. That would fit with the potential theory of a rollover into another shoulder for a possible inverse H&S formation. I don't know which we'll get or whether the reaction we get might be a fake-out move. Kinda depends on the GDP and the reaction to that number.

  OI Technical Staff   8/26/200,  9:29:34 PM
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