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  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  5:38:20 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  4:55:20 PM
Recap of Monday's trades (08-30-04)
Long SPX @ 1107.96 (overnight)
Exit @ 1106, -1.96
Long SPX @ 1105.35
Exit @ 1105.35, +0.00
Long SPX @ 1103.02
Exit @ 1103.17, +0.17
Short SPX @ 1104.04
Exit @ 1101.04, +3.00
Long SPX @ 1101.26
Exit @ 1100.00, -1.26
____________________________
Total gain/loss for Monday = -0.05
Total gain/loss for the week = -0.05

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  4:34:41 PM
It should also be pointed out that SPX closed the day back under the 50sma... not a good sign but not the end of the world either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  4:26:23 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  4:20:14 PM
TRIN closes the day @ 2.74, very close to the HOD. I consider a TRIN reading of 2.74 overdone, but that doesn't totally eliminate further downside risk. Once again (in the 20/20 rear view mirror) I tried to catch the falling knife and received a cut... still, it looked like SPX 1100 would provide support. It's very possible that tomorrow we could take off to the upside with today's EOD action being a "throwunder". We won't know until tomorrow but the risk/reward towards EOD seemed to be tilted to the upside, all things considered. All you can do in situations like this is weigh the factors and place your bets. We came out net plus for today and that's good enough. Tomorrow is another day and we will be starting out with a clean slate. My bias remains to the upside but as Jim stated in the Weekly Market Wrap, the market's record for extracting the maximum amount of capital from the maximum number of investors is a fact of life. All in all we did OK today swimming with the sharks ^^^^(:o^^^^

I wish I had covered the short play at EOD and initiated a long play at the close but if you put wishes in one hand and "dookie" in the other, well, you know which hand will fill up first.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/30/200,  4:02:32 PM
GOOG -4.15 to $102.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:59:59 PM
So OEX 537 finally breaks, without time to see whether the OEX will drop quickly toward 534.30-535, as the 15-minute Keltner chart suggests it might. I think we wipe the slate clean tomorrow and see what happens after those numbers.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:58:49 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out @ 1100.00, -1.26.
Whoa! Stopped out while I was outside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:56:07 PM
I don't know that I'd exactly say that I'm with Jim and Mark in wanting to be long overnight, since I still see the possibility that indices could be forming those right shoulders of inverse H&S formations, but I do see a lot of risk for those holding bearish positions overnight. They could be wildly successful tomorrow morning, as markets could have been buoyed up today ahead of those numbers and then fall afterwards, but we just don't know that tonight. What we do know is that many indices sit on support. That's why profit-protecting measures might be a great idea if in profitable bearish plays: selling out and congratulating yourself on achieving any profit today, selling partial positions, bracketing profitable bearish positions with a long entry, etc. Know what you're risking with each considered tactic. For example, selling a total position gains you the profit earned today, but risks not being able to participate in any further gains upon a gap down tomorrow, if one should occur.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  3:55:40 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 360.01 -0.01% .... slip fractions red.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  3:55:04 PM
The intraday QQQ at this Link shows what is either a descending triangle or, more likely, a neutral pennant. Both patterns should break to the downside, but that goes against the 30 min cycle upturn still in progress. Best to follow the break of either the upper or lower pennant trendlines here, whichever comes first. The cycle setup should be bullish, but the chart patterns, both here and on the 30 min chart, are bearish, and a downside break from here would abort 30 min cycle upphase early. It would also threaten the daily cycle upphase still in progress.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:50:02 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:44:34 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Lower your stops... to 1100
If not stopped out we will hold this overnight

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:42:40 PM
And here comes the test of the low of the day on the OEX. The 15-minute chart shows that if the OEX sustains to a new low of the day, a quick move down toward 534.40-535 could be possible. Traditional technical analysis suggests otherwise, saying that 537-ish should be difficult, but we'll soon see, won't we?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:39:12 PM
This pause by the OEX is allowing resistance to gather overhead. The OEX has been showing 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 537.84, setting up a breakdown situation, but the OEX hasn't broken down further. It could still do so, and that's what Keltners suggest as most likely, but I don't trust action in the last thirty minutes of the day. Be prepared for anything. Those in bearish positions should be making up their minds about whether they want to hold overnight, and perhaps planning to start stepping out of positions soon if they don't intend to hold overnight. The OEX sits on a possible strong support zone, as do other indices, but the OEX could also be just beginning a rounding over into another shoulder for a possible inverse H&S. It's a tough decision again, but factor in Jim's weekend comments about Tuesday being a tricky day with so many economic reports, including PMI and Confidence numbers. Japan has important numbers tomorrow, too, so it's an iffy day globally. Protecting some bearish profits might be a good idea for some.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:38:40 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now... SPX 1101.26, stop 1100.50

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  3:36:38 PM
The 30 min cycle upphase is underway Link but as we've seen today, it's flaggy and weak. Bulls need to see a break above 34.23 and 34.29 to keep it from whipsawing back down. A break below 34 would likely abort the upphase if it occurred from current levels.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:36:38 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
I'm waiting for one more swoosh down towards the LOD to get long but it's taking it's time and may not happen... stand by

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:24:50 PM
The BIX drops toward its low of the day, about $0.16 off that low of the day as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  3:17:56 PM
Updated QQQ 2-day chart at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:17:10 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Stand by for a potential long play...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:14:03 PM
Resistance now gathering near 537.80-537.90 for the OEX.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:14:00 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out @ 1101.04, +3.00

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:12:51 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  3:11:41 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  3:11:28 PM
Session highs for bonds, lows for the Dow and SPX futures. QQQ and the NQ have yet to return to their daily lows, but volume is finally picking up for QQQ, now returning to levels we saw this morning, and it appears that enthusiasm is emerging amongst the sellers. Channel support is 34.02 now, and the 30 min channel upturn appears to be flattening.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:11:17 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops again... to 1101.04

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:08:52 PM
Watch out below? The 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that a drop toward 534.40-535 could be rather sudden if the OEX doesn't pull up soon. However, there's still that support . . . so traditional and Keltner charts differ here. I trust Keltner charts enough that I suggest you be prepared for such an eventuality, but not enough that I'd say that you not also have plans for dealing with a possible bounce from 537.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:05:27 PM
The OEX threatens a breakout to the downside. If we start seeing fifteen-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 537.93 or five-minute closes beneath the line currently at 537.66, that sets up a potential downside below the 537 level and deeper into the 535-537 S/R zone. I wouldn't ignore the 537 support level, however, and would be following the OEX lower with my stops, having a plan in place for handling a test of that level before it's tested.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  3:01:21 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops again... to 1102.04

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  3:00:05 PM
10-yr bonds are posting a new session high here, TNX -3.9 bps at 4.188%. ES and YM just returned to the lows. QQQ volume is still very weak.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  3:00:02 PM
The OEX is now between the 240-minute 100/130-ema's. It doesn't appear to have a set pattern of . . . say, producing three 240-minute candles spanning those averages before breaking out or anything like that, but the 100-ema is at 537.16, near historical S/R from the 535-537 S/R zone, so it can be expected to lend its support there. This could be painful and awkward as the OEX steps its way down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:59:28 PM
02:55 PM Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:54:31 PM
Note that the 30 min cycle channel has turned up slightly, with channel support now 34.03 QQQ. That's a small upward gain, and a quick drop in price to that lower level would likely abort the upturn within minutes. But for the time being, the 30 min cycle low above the 33.80 levels we saw last week, and preserves the general uptrend in price despite the trendline break on the 30 min chart this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:52:43 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert .... for the QQQ $34.14 here.

($0.07, or +0.21%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:50:52 PM
The BIX remains above 360.00, but still hasn't been able to break above the late-February swing high.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  2:48:12 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops, to 1103.04

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:47:53 PM
Unless the OEX pulls up quickly, it's setting up the possibility of testing that 535-537 zone. Keltner resistance is now overhead near 538.30. Remember that the 240-minute 100-ema is near 537, too, adding its support and that one possible scenario is that the OEX could get stuck between the 240-minute 100 and 130-ema for a period of time.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:47:53 PM
The price move has now given a bearish bias to the still-choppy short cycle oscillators, and volume was light on the support break. There are buyers coming in here on QQQ as I type, but with the other indices breaking to new session lows, QQQ bulls could have a tough go of it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:45:48 PM
QQQ is breaking 34.13 support here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:45:36 PM
QQQ $34.12 -1.27% ...

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  2:45:30 PM
Bingo! It was a looooooooooong wait

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:45:27 PM
Session low for ES futures and INTC here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:45:11 PM
That didn't take long. The TRAN had already exceeded its downside target on the H&S formation depicted in the chart linked to my 14:36 post.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:45:10 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 375.28 -1.84% ... makes session low here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  2:44:45 PM
1102.56 is the number we need to take out... currently printing 1102.61

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  2:42:03 PM
Finally... some downside action. Maybe that bearish TRIN is kicking in. We still have that swing low @ 1102.90 to deal with but we're getting close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:38:20 PM
Crude oil settled for the afternoon session at 42.25, -.925 or -2.14%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:36:58 PM
Uh-oh, TRAN watchers and market bulls. Look what I see on the TRAN's five-minute chart: Link Note: It's dropped further while I uploaded this.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:33:53 PM
Next Keltner resistance tries to converge near 538.94 on the OEX's five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:33:36 PM
QQQ $34.20 -1.03% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:33:13 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.33 -0.48% .... session highs.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  2:32:56 PM
stepping away for a few minutes... (need some fresh air)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:29:51 PM
QQQ is now nose-to-nose with descending 7200-tick resistance at 34.22. 34.25-.26 is next resistance. However, volume is again declining on the advance- very lackluster action. Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  2:29:40 PM
It looks like Jim has the best play of the day going with an ES long right near the LOD. If we aren't slapped back pretty soon we are in danger of being stopped out of our short play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:27:54 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.31 -0.54% ... has been pinned under its DAILY S2 $27.32 entire session.

Little pop above $27.32 and filling of today's gap lower miiiiiiiight just get the QQQ to $34.35.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:21:41 PM
The OEX's 15-minute chart shows support slipping, just a bit. That support ranges from 538.18-538.38 and could be soon tested. The support still looks firm, but not as firm as it did earlier, and it could continue to deteriorate. The OEX has been taking the steady-while-lines-separate option that I mentioned earlier. So far, 15-minute closes have been beneath the basis line currently at 538.74, as bears would want to see happen, but now the OEX is being pressured between that resistance and close support, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:18:22 PM
To add to Mark's concerns about bearish plays, the OEX's three-minute chart shows bullish divergence, both Keltner style and the typical price/MACD style as the roughly equal lows were hit. That's giving warning of a possible bounce, one we've known about all morning because this support zone showed up so strongly, but that warning is countered by the just-completed and retested continuation-form H&S that I displayed in the chart linked to my 14:13 post. So, keep the warning in mind, one you've had all day concerning this particular level, from me at least, but continue to trade based on what's happening with price.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:15:53 PM
INTC is printing a session low of 21.70 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:13:59 PM
This three-minute chart shows that the OEX formed a nice-looking but continuation-form H&S, violated the neckline, dropped, came up to retest the neckline and now drops again: Link The downside target would not be big for this formation, and I don't trust targets for continuation-form H&S's anyway, but this does show us that bears still have enough uumph to confirm these formations.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  2:13:58 PM
As we enter the last 2 hours of trading when "da boyz", to borrow a phrase from Jonathan, normally start jockeying for position, we are seeing a slight downside bias but we're far from out of the woods with our short play. I'd like to see an impulsive move down but even then round number support at 1100 should be pretty strong.

The bearish TRIN, along with the SOX and Dow being close to their LODs are what I'm hanging my hat on right now.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  2:13:40 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) has announced that its next version of the Windows operating system, code-named Longhorn, will be available to consumers in 2006. If you're a tech bull you're probably hoping this ignites another round of computer upgrades across the U.S.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  2:09:03 PM
Just a reminder, if you missed the S&P announcement on Thursday night they will be deleting apparel retailer The Wet Seal (WTSLA) from the SmallCap 600 index and replacing it with Kensey Nash (KNSY) after the close on August 31st.

S&P also announced some additional changes to the various indices but no date has been set....

S&P will promote Coach (COH) to the S&P 500 index and delete Charter One Financial (CF) now that CF is being acquired by Royal Bank of Scotland.

Urban Outfitters (URBN) will graduate from the SmallCap index to the MidCap 400 index to take COH's spot. Meanwhile Community Bank System (CBU) will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 index to take URBN's vacancy.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  2:08:54 PM
Even the 3-minute OEX candles are tiny, marching out in a straight line. Something's gotta give soon . . . I hope.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  2:06:52 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  2:03:11 PM
Volume picked up on the last rise and has declined along with price. 34.20 QQQ held as resistance once again. Declining 7200-tick SMA resistance is now at 32.23, lining up with the short cycle spike high several hours ago. The almost perfectly sideways movement has now chopped up the short cycle oscillators in the middle of their range, which the 30 min channel support continues to tick up in what could well be a turn at the bottom of the 30 min downphase today. However, price is going to have to move to confirm or refute it- a break above 34.23 or below 34.13 should do it.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:58:50 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
stepping away for a few minutes... keep your stops @ 1104.04 and break even

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  1:57:32 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 360.99 +0.26% ... just off a session high of 361.14.

Might be this week's "biggest event"

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:57:11 PM
That last move up was impulsive looking and even though it was sold into right at the last swing high, it was also immediately bought back. Bottom line... if we don't get some traction to the downside pretty soon we will probably be stopped out @ break even. That may not be a bad thing today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  1:54:44 PM
By now, you all know the drill with double-bottom formation. They are not confirmed until the vehicle involved (the OEX, in this case) climbs above the peak between the two troughs, so that would be until the OEX moves above the 11:45 high of 539.39. You can expect resistance, too, near that peak. That's why the OEX turned down there the last time it did. If that double-bottom formation is confirmed, the upside target would be at about 540.40, but in this environment, I wouldn't count on any targets being met. A move below the day's low would undo the double-bottom formation.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  1:52:40 PM
In case you hadn't heard but radical cleric Al-Sadr, who had been holed up in a Najaf shrine for weeks, told his followers to end the fighting between U.S. and Iraqis today.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  1:49:41 PM
Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) is down more than 8% to $22.01 after Deutsche Bank (DB) downgraded the stock to a "sell" and cut its price target to $19.50.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:42:40 PM
Note to readers...
Keep in mind I'm monitoring the cash indices and not the futures. If you see an apparent discrepancy in my numbers (swing lows and highs) and other writers, that is the reason.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  1:42:13 PM
There are ranges and there are ranges, but less than 5 QQQ cents for nearly two hours is pretty narrow.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:39:40 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to consider a counter long play with the TRIN @ 1.93 but that’s very close to 2.00, which I consider borderline overdone. Bottom line... I’m still not really sure of anything today. A firming around the 1102.50 area "might" be worth looking at a long play if the ducks align themselves correctly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  1:38:47 PM
Oh, I still would have guessed short overall, Mark. (See Mark's 13:29 post.) I just thought that since support had been holding fairly well, that the stop-run might be to the upside. I then thought the markets might get hit with some of those massive offers Jim was mentioning earlier, and probably get turned down again. I'm not sure how much downside there is, either, though, at least on the OEX, because of support near the current level and then again at 537. It's possible that the OEX could get trapped a while between those levels. Is that enough equivocation? It's the truth, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  1:36:32 PM
Mark gets the prize. I tossed that coin the wrong direction. The stop-run is to the downside. Remember that if the OEX just continues down and there's no dip-buying, it's more than a stop run, but on the OEX, there's support near 537. Guard profit there, too, if it should be hit.

It's only if there's an immediate bout of dip-buying that sends the OEX higher that it's doing nothing more than running stops. MM's have to see where the support and resistance lie. Fortunately for them and unfortunately for the rest of us, they can move the markets enough to perform that little test before investing the rest of their money.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:31:49 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops, to 1104.04 and break even

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  1:30:06 PM
Jeff has already mentioned the weakness in the BTK biotech index lead by disappointments from ACDO and MEDI. I find it interesting that the BTK is not only reversing Friday's bullish breakout over the 500 level and its simple 100 and 200-dma's, but the BTK is also painting what appears to be a bearish engulfing candlestick. This could be a significant reversal in the works. Watch for the BTK to drop under the simple 10-dma and the exponential 200-dma near the 490 level.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:29:45 PM
Thanks Linda... this IS a very difficult spot to say long or short. It's hard to see the market making a meaningful move in either direction but that's about the time they love to zap you with the bull prod, or more contemporaneously, the Taser.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  1:27:17 PM
The 30 min cycle downphase is hesitating on the 30 min chart Link , and on the short cycle chart, the 30 min channel has finally gone flat with support at 34, resistance 34.29. A break above the prior high of 34.23 should see the 30 min cycle turn up.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  1:25:35 PM
The little animation was almost worth being put on the spot, though, Mark. Smile.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  1:24:28 PM
I'm having a hard(er than usual) time guessing about the direction of the stop-running push today, Mark. I might have to guess up, based only on Keltner chart evidence on the 15-minute chart, but down based on the five-minute chart. Toss of the coin, I say up, but that doesn't mean I expect it to succeed, necessarily.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  1:22:32 PM
The CBOE Internet Index (INX) is also rolling over under resistance at 170 and its simple 40-dma. RSI and stochastics certainly look vulnerable.

YHOO is seeing some profit taking (-2.66% to $28.51) under resistance at $30.00 following three weeks of gains and its MACD is nearing a new "sell" signal but I wouldn't expect it to fall very far with support at $26.00. The overbought P&F chart is currently in a "sell" signal with a $20 target.

AMZN is even weaker, down 3.35% to $38.56. This looks pretty bearish after last week's "breakout" over the $40 level. AMZN's MACD is also nearing a new "sell" signal. The downside target here might be $35.00. The bearish price target in AMZN's P&F chart is $15.00 but the stock is currently in a column of X's (going up). A drop under $37 should put it back into a column of O's (going down).

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:17:56 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
I’m very tempted to try a counter (concurrent) long play here

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  1:16:55 PM
Bonds are holding most of their gains, TNX -2.8 bps at 4.199%. I'm frankly surprised, after the large 11B gain on Thursday, preserved on Friday and then supplemented with another 2.25B today from the Fed's open market desk, that the markets, both equity and treasury, aren't stronger.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:15:29 PM
Stop running push to the downside today Linda? (I know how much you love being put on the spot) Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  1:14:49 PM
QQQ updated 2-day chart at this Link.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  1:14:47 PM
It's not a recommendation but IBM doesn't look very healthy either. The stock is certainly suffering under a trend of lower highs. The bearish P&F chart for IBM points to a $77 target.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  1:12:58 PM
If you're bearish and looking for put play candidates consider the hardware sector. The GHA hardware index looks short-term overbought and it's starting to falter under its simple 50 and 100-dma's and the exponential 200-dma. The MACD is stalling and its shorter-term technicals like the RSI and stochastics are rolling over.

 
 
  James Brown   8/30/200,  1:10:16 PM
Linda has been watching the TRAN and I find it somewhat encouraging to see it back above the 3100 level today. I'm also watching Fedex (FDX). The company issued positive earnings guidance last week and the stock spent the last few days consolidating the reaction gap higher in a $1.50 range above the $81.00 level. If shares of FDX can push through the $83.00 mark it could be a bullish entry point for a run to $90. The P&F chart points to a $97 target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  1:09:10 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for the QQQ $34.19 -1.07% ... to $34.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  1:07:25 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:04:53 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  1:02:44 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops, to 1104.54
Just above the 11:46 swing high

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  1:01:05 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  12:57:51 PM
The BIX remains positive, too, at 360.94 as I type. I think the BIX and the TRAN might need watching, as market bears would want to see them acting a bit more bearish before expecting support to crater on other indices.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  12:55:40 PM
The TRAN still holds above 3100, at 3104.61 as I type. It's back challenging recent S/R, with 30- and 60-minute MACD absolutely flat-lining and not giving clues as to next direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  12:53:23 PM
Biotech Index (BTK.X) 493.37 -2.59% .... intra-day chart with QCharts' DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot levels. Pretty good tie with today's QQQ trade. Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  12:52:36 PM
It's amazing to see prices holding firm with such a bearish TRIN

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  12:46:51 PM
The wavelet downphase that brought us the dip from the 34.23 spike to current levels is bottoming here, and while it can trend easily, the next anticipated move would be for a wavelet upphase. Current levels represent a higher low within the ongoing short cycle upphase, and if the wavelet pulls up from here, I expect 34.23 to get broken on this try. A move above 34.20 should provide the setup.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  12:41:27 PM
If we could consider that last pattern on the OEX's five-minute chart a bear flag, questionable because of the breakaway gap, then the OEX broke below the bottom support of that flag. It also closed that gap, something not usually done on breakaway gaps. It has not confirmed that breakdown by reaching another new low, however, and now tries a bounce. The smallest Keltner channel on the five-minute chart still points down toward 537.95, but if the OEX can manage five-minute closes above 539.04, it can turn that smallest Keltner channel higher again. The OEX still does battle with that support showing up on the 15-minute Keltner channel, down to 538.27, and on MA's across other time frames. A strong swoosh down can break all that support, but until and unless that happens, the only way it looks possible for the OEX to break through would be to either work slowly to erode the Keltner support, by steadying while the lines gradually separate, or else bounce and thereby separate some of the support lines, too, before rolling down again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  12:35:57 PM
QQQ $34.14 -1.21% .... intra-day charts with WEEKLY and today's lower 5-MRT overlay at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  12:30:23 PM
If the b-bands get much tighter they are going to merge into a single line

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  12:27:46 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert for the QQQ $34.15 -1.18% .... to $34.05.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  12:27:26 PM
Crude oil is up slightly, now down 1.425 to 41.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  12:27:04 PM
Volume has fallen off here- very little action on my tick-based charts.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  12:24:06 PM
B-bands are tighter than they have been all day on the SPX 1-min chart... last time around this preceeded a move higher

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  12:18:38 PM
Here's where the OEX is with respect to the 240-minute 100/130-ema's, an update on a chart I showed earlier. This displays one reason among others, such as the 50-dma and Keltner support, that the OEX decline slowed down in this area: Link RSI has rolled down, but while the MACD histogram has become less positive, MACD hasn't yet completed a bearish cross. It's got plenty of room to descend if it does complete that bearish cross, but OEX bears don't want to see the OEX stuck between these averages all the while MACD cycles down, either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  12:13:22 PM
QQQ failed to regain the 34.20 level, spiking to 34.23 but currently trading within a penny 34.16. The short cycle upphase is still in progress, but it's so far getting poor price traction and has failed to test 34.26. The 30 min cycle channel remains down, but the short cycle bounce is moderating its previously steep slope. I expect at least another hour before the 30 min cycle oscillators begin to look extended to the downside, so bulls want to see the losses limited from here to run the close on the key 30 min cycle downphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  12:11:47 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  12:10:19 PM
The OEX again approaches support from MA's and Keltner lines, with that support ranging from 538.25-538.60. A strong sell program that sent the OEX sharply lower could break that support, but for now, that support looks stronger than nearby resistance on a 15-minute Keltner-chart basis. The five-minute chart looks somewhat different, however, with support not looking as strong and with the possibility that the OEX could even slide down toward 537.95. Still, even here, support looks ever-so-slightly stronger than resistance, which has thinned out.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  12:05:02 PM
I'd like to see the last swing low @ 1103.22 taken out to feel a little more comfortable with this short... better yet, the swing low @ 1102.74

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  12:02:50 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:59:19 AM
The TRAN is back above 3100 again.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:58:28 AM
B-bands are getting very tight... we are setting up for a move here (wish I knew which way with more certainty)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:57:39 AM
The five-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX's current pattern could be a bear flag, but an unusual one, if it is, since it includes a breakaway gap higher a few minutes ago.

The fifteen-minute OEX Keltner chart gives a little different picture than the five-minute one. On that chart, it appears that the OEX could be headed back to retest support, having found resistance at the basis line of the smallest channel on that chart. However, that chart suggests that support is currently strong enough to hold the OEX up on a short-term basis. On any rise, Keltner resistance shows up at 539.30 and then again near 540. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath 539.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:56:03 AM
Gold is still holding its gains, up 3.90 at 402.20, while HUI has faded, now up just .19% at 205.71, XAU -.1% at 94.28.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:49:44 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:48:01 AM
Updated QQQ chart at this Link . A short cycle upphase is now underway. Next resistance above 32.20 is at 34.26.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:47:30 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Go short now... SPX 1104.04, stop 1105.25

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:38:32 AM
Session high for GE at 32.74, -.04.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:37:23 AM
As I uploaded that 11:35 post, the OEX gapped higher. Now we have to see if it can continue to climb. First support should now be found near 538.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:37:19 AM
Crude oil's plumbing new lows, currently 41.65, -1.525 or 3.53%. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:35:49 AM
Too perfect? Isn't this a perfect setup for the pullback into another shoulder for potential inverse H&S's on the SPX, OEX, Dow, and particularly the Russell 2000? For more than a week now, I've been watching for such a pullback, first from a potential descending trendline and then from the horizontal one. Anything this perfect just makes me nervous, though.

I needed to add one more type of support to that found in the 538.50-ish region for the OEX. I had forgotten to mention that the 50-dma is also in that area, at 538.46. Keltner resistance appears to be thinning somewhat on the OEX's five-minute chart, so it's possible that bounce could finally begin, and, if so, it will encounter much less resistance on that chart than it would have earlier.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:33:38 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exiting now @ 1103.17, + 0.15

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:32:34 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
I'm growing increasingly uncomfortable with this long play... may exit early

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:32:24 AM
Support at 34 came from chart confluence, while the pattern on the 30 min chart Link is of a bearish rising wedge breakdown. The ongoing 30 min cycle downphase is responsible for the weakness in the short cycle bounce, for the same reason that I guessed earlier this AM that the anticipated short cycle upphase would be weak. I'm thinking that a break aback above that 34.16-.20 level (on the 30 min chart) would enable the bears to make a return-to-the-scene-of-the-crime around 34.45-.55.

 
 
  Keene Little   8/30/200,  11:29:34 AM
Mark, I'll gladly take those 3 measly points as well! I'm trying to scalp a few points to the long side before getting short again. This is trying my patience and making me wonder why I didn't just stay short. But they say rewards come to those who exercise patience. I'm always reminded of the cartoon I saw of two vultures sitting on a branch waiting for some poor animal to die so they'd have a meal. One says to the other, "I'm tired of being patient, I'm going to go kill me something."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:26:03 AM
Headline:

11:24am $TNX U.S. TREASURY CUTS 4-WEEK BILL AUCTION TO $22 BILLION

I believe that the original amount was 24B. TNX is down to 4.196%, a decline of 3.1 bps. Bonds remain strong today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:25:45 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops, to 1102.50
We’re bouncing now and that’s good, but if we make a new LOD I want to limit our loss... TRIN is spiking, currently 1.80

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:24:17 AM
I'll take those measly 3 points Keene!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:21:29 AM
The TRAN is bouncing back up to test its 50-dma, perhaps reacting to the reduction in crude prices that Jonathan has mentioned, despite the Iraqi pipeline attacks that Mark has just mentioned. Bears should keep a watch on the TRAN, too. A retest of broken support should be expected, but bears don't want to see the TRAN sail over 3100 and the established high of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:18:53 AM
Crude oil has just dipped below 42 to a session low of 41.975 a few seconds ago.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:18:29 AM
Here's why I've been watching the OEX's 240-minute 100/130-ema's so closely since 8/20, when the OEX first rose to test those averages. Since that time, they first formed resistance and then support, and now their support is being tested again, with the OEX perhaps forming an evening-star formation on that chart. Link Those averages should provide at least a bounce attempt, perhaps with the OEX eventually slipping beneath the 130-ema and then getting trapped between the two averages before deciding on eventual direction. That's just one theory, based on what sometimes happens, though, and not a suggestion that it definitely will happen.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:18:00 AM
Jim I think the repeated attacks on Iraqi oil pipelines may have injected some caution into the markets. They seem determined to do everything in their power to influence this election.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:17:01 AM
Jim, I think it's waiting for the 30 min cycle downphase to get done. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  11:13:37 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:12:24 AM
On the OEX's five-minute Keltner chart, resistance is trying to firm at 539.00-539.15 and then again at 539.90-540.10, but bears most prefer to see five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line at 538.85.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:10:14 AM
A wavelet bounce seems to be strengthening here, but volume is declining as the price advances. 34.16 QQQ continues to appear as the key resistance here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  11:05:45 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  11:02:43 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now @ SPX 1103.02, stop 1101.00

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  11:02:15 AM
QQQ needs to get to 34.16, above which we should see buyers gain confidence. A failure below that level will see a retest of 34.00, with 33.90 just below it. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  11:01:55 AM
The BIX is still positive, a warning to bears as this index won't give up the fight to move above the late February major swing high of 362.64. The BIX's high of the day today is 361.05 and the current level is 360.63 as the BIX does retreat, but not far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  10:59:21 AM
Day trade long alert .... for the QQQ $34.07 here, stop $33.95, target $34.35.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:58:22 AM
Getting a bounce from just above 34, and with the short cycles this oversold, we need to watch for a move above 34.16, which would trigger the next short cycle upphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  10:54:43 AM
The OEX coasts down toward a zone that's showing up as support from many sources, including the 240-minute 100/130-ema's and Keltner lines. The 538.20-ish area looks strong on a Keltner basis. That doesn't mean that it can't be breached, as a strong drop can drill right through it, but unless there's that strong and continued drop, this should provide at least a short-term bounce attempt. Have plans in place to protect profits if in a bearish play in case the bounce gets carried away, as sometimes happens in a low-volume environment. With TRIN still climbing but maybe not yet high enough to be considered bullish in a contrarian vein, I don't know that I'd be considering a long position here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  10:53:43 AM
TRIN @ 1.69

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  10:52:33 AM
Below SPX 1102.50 there is a swing low @ 1101.50 and then round number support @ 1100. I'd be surprised to see the index get that low and would expect bottomfishers to start nibbling before the obvious 1100 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  10:49:35 AM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 491.21 -3.01% .... notably weak on the Accredo Health (ACDO) $21.81 -21.5% warning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:46:53 AM
Bonds continue to rise, with ten year note futures now above 113.03 and TNX -3.1 bps to 4.196%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  10:46:46 AM
The TRAN has dropped beneath 3100 and the 50-dma, and has fallen back inside the descending regression channel off the 7/01 high. That's not good news for bulls in any market and they want to see the TRAN climb back above all those levels, leaving only a candle shadow springing up from support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:45:41 AM
Session low for QQQ at 34.069 here- next support is at 34.04 and 34.00, then 33.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:45:04 AM
Nymex crude is lower by .375 here at 42.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  10:44:06 AM
The OEX attempts to steady in preparation for a bounce. Keltner charts suggest that it could go lower, perhaps at least to 538.14, but it first may rise to test Keltner resistance. First nearby resistance lies at 539.29-539.35. Bears would like to see five-minute closes beneath that level.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  10:43:44 AM
I'm really hoping for a swoosh down to the 1102.50 area which should be a good area to expect a bounce. If SPX cuts through 1102.50 like it wasn't there then ignore what I just said (grin)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  10:42:41 AM
October Crude Oil futures (cl04v) $43.28 +0.23% (30-minute delayed) .... here is a 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot levels. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:37:40 AM
The short cycles are now bottomed for QQQ- it's bounce-or-trend time here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  10:37:21 AM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
There is a lot of congestion (support) in the 1104 area on the cash index but conditions look very shaky at this point... still, we may be approaching a decent entry point for a long play... stand by

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  10:35:35 AM
The OEX now tests the ascending trendline off the 8/18 low, and tests the 538.50-538.60 level showing up as support on the 15-minute Keltner charts and also by a look at the 240-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 537.15 and 538.58, respectively. Be prepared for a possible bounce.

Nearby resistance should be found near 539.41.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:31:16 AM
QQQ update at this Link . The wavelet cycle upphase aborted early, and the short cycles are extending their prior downphase after a near buy signal.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  10:30:59 AM
The other writers sufficiently scared me into exiting that long play before it became a loser. That's the advantage of being part of a team. When they are all waving red flags it's time to listen up. We're about to either make a triple bottom or drop to new lows... TRIN is saying new lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  10:26:03 AM
Strongest nearby OEX Keltner resistance at 540.30-540.55. Above that, resistance thins, so that if the OEX can accomplish five-minute closes above that, it might be able to attempt a stronger climb. Bears want those five-minute closes to be even lower, beneath the channel line currently 539.82, to keep that smallest Keltner channel pointed toward 538.50 or so. Remember that on such light volume, all it takes is one fund thinking they'll do a little dip-buying and a perfectly serviceable bearish play gets wiped out. Be careful if in a play and be even more cautious if considering a new one today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:25:22 AM
30 min channel support is down to 34.25 QQQ here. 60 min channel support is above at 34.33 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  10:23:06 AM
eBay (EBAY) $85.99 +0.09% .... Jeff: What range do you see ebay trading for the next 14 trading days?

Between $80.94 and $89.81.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:23:01 AM
Session low for QQQ here at 34.28. Session high for gold at 410.70, +5.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:14:24 AM
The Fed has added another 4B via overnight repo for a net gain of 2.25B for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  10:13:36 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:13:27 AM
Not much of a short cycle upphase, so far. It's very weak within the ongoing 30 min cycle downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  10:09:10 AM
No new low for the OEX. It's trying to gather strength to bounce again, but it will encounter resistance now near 539.80-540.00 and again near 540.40, if it can gather that strength. Down still looks more likely than up, but over the very short-term, a bounce might be in order to test that resistance. Remember not to trust anything too much in a light-volume environment, including a play that seems to be working just as you'd hoped.

 
 
  Jane Fox   8/30/200,  10:03:58 AM
DAteline WSJ - BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Oil exports from southern Iraq have been brought to a complete halt, a senior oil official said, after a spate of pipeline attacks launched by insurgents trying to undermine the nation's interim government...

Oil flows out of the southern pipelines -- which account for 90% of Iraq's exports -- ceased late yesterday and weren't likely to resume for at least a week, two senior officials from South Oil Co. said. "Oil exports from the port of Basra have completely stopped since last night," one official said.

In addition, no oil was being pumped today through Iraq's northern export lines to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, according to an oil official in Ceyhan. Those lines have also been repeatedly attacked in recent months.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  10:03:23 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  10:02:10 AM
The downside break of that small triangle on the three-minute OEX chart did come as expected. Now bears want to see a new low of the day. Be prepared to protect any profits in the 538.50-538.70 zone, if that should be reached.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:02:08 AM
Nymex crude oil is up .20 to 43.375 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  10:01:40 AM
Updated 100-tick 2-day QQQ chart at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  10:00:39 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out @ 1105.35 and break even

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  10:00:01 AM
TRIN 1.41 +38.2% .... jumped to 2.23 at the open, hanging out at DAILY R2 since.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  9:59:10 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops, to 1105.35 and break even
I'm losing confidence in this play and if we take out the last swing low @ 1105.60 I'll have even less

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  9:57:37 AM
The OEX's three-minute chart shows the OEX forming a symmetrical triangle on that chart, in preparation for a breakout one direction or the other. Resistance on that chart suggests that the breakout will be down, but . . . there's that low volume to consider. Strange things happen in low volume.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:57:33 AM
The Fed has announced a 9.25B 3-day repo against the 11B expiring. It will take another 1.75B in overnights to break even for the day- awaiting the next announcement any minute.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  9:57:26 AM
VIX.X 15.33 +4.21% .... DAILY Pivot is 14.78. R1 14.89, R2 15.08.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:55:06 AM
Session highs for ten year bonds and GE- -2 bps at 4.207% and -.07 at 32.70 respectively.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  9:54:11 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:49:45 AM
There's very little volume behind the current wavelet bounce. First resistance to clear is 34.41, followed by .44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  9:49:02 AM
TRIN is dropping, but unless it continues to drop, it's not in a territory I'd consider conducive to a long trade, unless it were a scalp as one became available. I'm watching for a potential OEX rollover beneath 540.30-540.40, but that rollover might find strong support near 538.50, and certainly will encounter possible strong support near 537.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  9:48:09 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cinch up your stops to 1104.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/30/200,  9:46:44 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 360.95 +0.23% Link ... challenges all-time high early.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  9:44:06 AM
The OEX has bounced back to/above the third trendline off the 8/13 low. It's retesting that trendline and the Keltner resistance, but more Keltner resistance is higher, at 540.44.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:41:52 AM
The short cycle downphase is flattening and a wavelet upphase appears imminent here. 30 min channel support is down to 34.35, and the 30 min cycle channel is sloping sharply downward. My guess is that a short cycle upphase from current levels will be flat or sideways, weak at best, because of the strong downward bias in the 30 min cycle for QQQ. But we'll see. Above 34.53-.55 QQQ, the buyers would get much bolder- the question is whether they can get there.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  9:39:09 AM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long now @ SPX 1105.35, stop 1103.50

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  9:35:32 AM
Well, that didn't give us time to check breadth indicators, did it? The OEX has dropped through the trendline off the 8/13 low, the third trendline of the correlative-fan theory and the one that supposedly marks the end of the short-term rally. The OEX has not yet dropped below the trendline off the 8/18 low, the one describing the bottom of the ascending regression channel in which it's been trading. That's at about 538.65, so I don't consider the first trendline break confirmed just yet. The 240-minute 130-ema is at 538.58, however. Looking for a bounce now up toward Keltner resistance near 540-540.40 on the first reversal of the day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  9:34:18 AM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Stand by to go long

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:33:26 AM
Session highs for gold and bonds here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:32:04 AM
Thanks, Keene. I agree entirely with the point, except that Linda made it.

 
 
  Mark Davis   8/30/200,  9:30:48 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out @ SPX 1106.00, -1.96

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:27:31 AM
Bonds remain strong, with TNX now down 1.6 bps at 4.211%. Gold is now up 3.40 to 408.70. Looks like the buying in the HUI and XAU at Friday's close is following through in the metals.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  9:19:51 AM
All across the globe, indices are seeing low volume. Trading in low volume is a risky business, and all those contemplating trades today should be aware that such low volume can mean that technical analysis is less useful than usual. A formation might seem to confirm, only to have a small buy or sell program push the markets in an entirely different direction. Trading in this environment is really a matter of deciding on your bias and holding your nose and plunging in, because that's often about all the information you have to go on--your own bias. For now, it looks as if support might be tested before resistance this morning. Let's see how breadth indicators look as that support is tested.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  9:02:44 AM
The daily cycle upphase is just reaching the beginning of overbought territory, while the 30 min cycle is in a downphase following a bearish oscillator divergence. For QQQ, 34.35 and 34.20 are confluence support, and 30 min channel support is currently ast 34.40. A short cycle downphase is nearly oversold but not there yet. If the weakness persists after the first 15 minutes of trading following the cash open, we should see a test of that 34.20 level, below which the daily cycle upphase will stall and we'll watch 34.00 as next support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  8:33:56 AM
Equities are nearly unchanged from their pre-data levels. Bonds are slightly higher this morning, TNX -1 bp at 4.217%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  8:31:07 AM
Headlines coming out now:

8:30am U.S. JULY PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.1% VS. 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. JULY CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.8% AS EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. JULY INCOME GROWTH SLOWEST IN 2 YEARS

8:30am U.S. JULY PCE PRICE INDEX UNCHANGED; CORE PCE FLAT

8:30am U.S. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 1.5% Y-O-Y

8:30am U.S. JULY PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE FALLS TO 0.6%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/30/200,  8:13:43 AM
Equities are lower, ES trading 1105.25, NQ 1382.5, YM 1-174 and QQQ down .20 to 34.36. Gold is up 2.10 to 407.40, silver +.001 to 6.60 and crude oil +.35 to 43.525.

We await the 8:30 release of personal income for July, est. .5%, and personal spending, est. .7%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/30/200,  6:52:38 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei spent much of the early morning session trading just beneath the flat-line level, but then dived into the close of the morning session. Opening the afternoon session at its low of the day, it then climbed the rest of the afternoon, trimming more than 50 points off its losses. It closed lower by 25.06 points or 0.22%, at 11,184.53. The broader Topix closed higher, however, achieving a number of consecutive higher closes not seen in 14 years, according to a Marketwatch.com article. Volume was light ahead of tomorrow's Japanese industrial production.

Several industrial companies climbed, including Kawasaki Heavy Industrial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Matsushita Electric Industry, each with news regarding contracts won, expansion intended or stock buybacks planned. Many exporters and techs rose, but Sony wasn't one during the early session, at least. The company's CFO reportedly admitted in an interview that sales of televisions and audio equipment had been dismal. Telecoms NTT and KDDI dropped on news that Internet investor Softbank will enter the fixed-line phone service market in Japan, and that Softbank plans to charge a lower monthly fee than NTT's. A banking concern other than UFJ Holdings, Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial was in the news for a change. Mizuho Holdings announced that it would return public funds to the government, with that announcement rating it an upgrade to a buy rating from Merrill Lynch and adding 4.5% to the stock price Monday.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but the ones typically followed on this page mostly closed lower. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.15%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.63%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.55%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.46%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.08%, I believe reaching its lowest intraday low in three years.

Currently, most European bourses turn in mixed performances, produced on light volume. The FTSE 100 is closed today. With a union expected to stage warning strikes against Volkswagen as car manufacturers plan to cut costs, German car manufacturers traded lower. The pharmaceuticals gained attention today, with U.S. FDA approval given to Schwarz Pharma's Parcopa, an orally disintegrating tablet for Parkinson's patients. Sunday, recently merged Sanofi-Aventis unveiled encouraging results from a trial of a weight-loss drug and said it would seek to gain regulatory approval in preparation for a 2006 launch of the drug. Both stocks traded higher. In other news, UBS may announce today that it and Charles Schwab have reached an agreement for UBS's purchase of Schwab's SoundView Capital Markets.

Currently, the CAC 40 has dropped 2.57 points or 0.07%, to 3,646.67. The DAX has dropped 15.52 points or 0.40%, at 3,835.66.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/29/200,  9:30:22 PM
Monday morning, we'll be watching for either an upside OEX breakout or a rollover beneath resistance. First, the upside breakout. Our best guide there will be another break above the 8/02 high, then confirmed by a break above Friday's 541.89 high. Confirm first that the SPX is above its 200-sma at 1111.20 before considering such a long entry, and be aware that it will probably come just below the Dow's test of its 200-sma at 10241.75, a dangerous long entry point. Those considering such a long entry should have a plan for dealing with the level of the OEX's 200-sma if it should be approached, and should be aware of several warning signs attending this climb, such as the low volume. Second, the downside break. We'll be looking first at a break of the ascending trendline off the August 13 low, with that trendline crossing at about 539.85, but some traders will want to confirm that by a break below the trendline off the 8/18 low, with that trendline currently at 538.65. Those considering bearish entries on rollovers should have plans in mind for how they'll deal with the 535-537 S/R zone if it should be approached. I want to get a look at breadth indicators before I state unequivocally that those entries are sound, but they're the best guideline I can give on Sunday night.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   8/29/200,  7:11:30 PM
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