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  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  4:13:30 PM
I still consider that an "energy" stock James and the chart looks pretty good

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  4:11:23 PM
Mark, I thought OSG was a oil tanker/water transport company.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  4:10:12 PM
Here are a few from my watchlist Jim... APC, LNG, LSS, OSG, THX, HNR, TMR, TOT, IO, TRGL

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  4:03:35 PM
Great idea, Jim! I agree with your outlook and will see what I can come up with.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/10/200,  4:00:24 PM
Top Ten Energy Stocks
I am putting together a Top Ten Energy Stocks for the coming energy crisis. I would be interested in any suggestions from readers on any energy stocks they like and why. My energy view is a continued ramp in oil prices as Hubbert's Peak approaches in 2007-2008. This will produce $100 oil in this decade and shift emphasis to alternate energy sources and make previously unprofitable oil recovery methods suddenly profitable. I am looking for those niche stocks in alternative fuels, recovery, transportation, technology, etc. I have a list but I am looking for those that may be "undiscovered" by mainstream investors. This should produce large profits as they become discovered. Send me an email with your comments and suggestions.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:55:01 PM
I have a feeling more than a few people will consider shorting at resistance a good risk/reward, even ahead of the weekend. I also have a feeling they may be surprised next week. This is only rank speculation and should not be taken into consideration when contemplating a trade.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/10/200,  3:50:32 PM
The link between the VXO and the markets has long been established and with a new 52-week low today I had to resurrect the comparison charts. The first is the history of the Dow compared to the VXO when the VXO dipped under 14.0. The Second is the same comparison of the VXO and SPX. You be the judge of what could be coming next week.

VXO:DOW: Link
VXO:SPX: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:46:41 PM
They started buying this right about 2:00 and have never looked back

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  3:42:13 PM
For the daily QQQ, this looks like a rectangle/flag consolidation breakout: Link . Or, possibly, a rough pennant breakout: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:37:52 PM
SPX just printed a sell signal @ 1124.40 but I wouldn't trust it as far as I could throw it... all in all a very bullish day and once again the market does just the opposite of what the crowd expects. My only regret is that this is Friday and not Monday.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  3:34:40 PM
Some of these sectors are up three, four even five weeks in a row. I feel like going long now is buying the top.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:34:15 PM
Starting to see some bearish MACD divergence with price but it's too late in the day and too risky to do much about it.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  3:33:24 PM
Disk Drives (DDX) +2.59%
Hardware (GHA) +2.34%
Software (GSO) +3.59%
Internets (INX) +2.4%
Semiconductors (SOX) +3.6%
Networking (NWX) +2.5%

Broker-dealers (XBD) +1.87%
Biotech (BTK) +1.64%

Airliners (XAL) +1.64%
Retailers (RLX) +1.79%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  3:33:14 PM
I agree with James regarding volatility, but have to note that this is very bullish action on a cycle basis, with the daily cycle downphase aborted from a higher low and the 30 minute cycle trending in overbought. On a trading basis, my bias is bullish above 35, and neutral above 34.80. It will take a break below 34.48 for starters to undo the bullish technical picture painted by today's action.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/10/200,  3:32:48 PM
VXO just hit a new 52-week low at 13.20. - That should be a storm warning for everyone.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  3:31:13 PM
So what's going on here guys? I feel like the market's getting a little too excited. Why would investors be buying stocks as we move into the worst month of the year just ahead of earnings warning season? Not that the recent warnings have had much affect.

The lows on the volatility indices certainly make this seem like a foolish spot to consider bullish positions.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:25:44 PM
I have to think we're seeing some short covering here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:24:48 PM
It's Jeff's inchworm working like a charm Jane.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  3:23:34 PM
New session highs across the board.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  3:21:05 PM
Session high for GE here at 33.96, still below yesterday's high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  3:16:31 PM
Very slight pullback for QQQ- 35.00 hasn't been tickled yet.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:14:54 PM
It's hard to believe we still have a full 45 minutes of trading left. I feel like it's already been about a day and a half.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:10:41 PM
The sell signal just aborted

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  3:04:59 PM
SPX printed a sell signal @ 1123 which is in serious danger of aborting early.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  3:03:47 PM
Check out the QQV, down 8.49% at 17.47. I'd call this a crash in volatility.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  2:53:09 PM
Looking at the SPX 30-min chart... the downtrend line is also the neckline of an inverse H&S pattern (now confirmed)... upside target SPX 1130 Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  2:51:57 PM
New highs are breaking out above QQQ 35, last at 35.05. The daily cycle is not yet showing a new upphase, but the downphase is clearly over well before its time.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  2:46:16 PM
Bonds continue to weaken slowly, with TNX now down 2.1 bps at 4.178%.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  2:40:38 PM
We're very close to another +4 point rally from that last buy signal... amazing

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  2:40:00 PM
35.00 is cracking here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  2:37:53 PM
These are new highs for the move for QQQ, and 35.00 resistance is now in play, with the current high at 35.00. A close above that level should leave us on a new daily cycle upphase from a higher price and much higher oscillator low.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  2:36:47 PM
Looks like the boys are buying the close... very encouraging

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  2:27:57 PM
Look out above... SPX new HOD @ 1120.59. This may trigger some traction to the upside, although we have to get through "throwover" territory first.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  2:26:59 PM
New highs breaking out, with ES joining in. YM is almost up to unchanged.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  2:16:01 PM
30 min QQQ chart at this Link . The bear wedge is still intact, but the sustained prints above 34.80 are looking like a breakout waiting to happen. A move below 34.78 on volume (ie a bear wedge breakout) would invalidate that bullish view.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  2:11:45 PM
QQQ has budged bare pennies since lunch hour, and remains pegged at 34.81 here. This weakness is still taking place on the 30 min cycle bears' nickel, and so it still looks bullish to me.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  2:10:37 PM
It's about time for the big boys to start jockeying for position... let's see what they do.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  2:07:46 PM
SPX just printed another buy signal... whether it holds or not is still up for grabs. The last time SPX printed a buy signal from current MACD levels resulted in a +4 point rally... stay tuned

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  2:05:38 PM
Watch SPX 1118, the last swing low, for a potential bounce point... much below that and it will look like the spike to 1120 was just the daily stop-running push (right on time)... SPX currently printing 1118.33 and trying to print a buy signal with a MACD bullish cross (which could easily turn into a third bearish kiss)... jury is still out.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  2:00:29 PM
I'm a movie buff too but lately I've been waiting for them to hit the $3 theater instead of paying $9.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:59:39 PM
APOL continues to look like a bearish candidate as it slips closer and closer to breaking support at the $80.00 mark.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/10/200,  1:58:48 PM
That is a lot of movies James. Guess I will be busy for I love movies.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:56:02 PM
Odds are only three or four of them are any good. *grin*

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:55:41 PM
Holy Cow! CNBC said we should expect 140 new movies to come out this fall.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:53:15 PM
E*Trade (ET) is following with a 2.3% rally to $12.20 and a breakout over its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:52:48 PM
AMTD continues to rally. Shares are up 5.5% to $12.40 and breaking out over the $12.00 mark and its exponential 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:50:38 PM
If you missed the profit target/exit point in ZBRA yesterday, a recently closed OI call play, you've got another chance today. The stock pierced resistance at the $60.00 mark but is now trading back to $59.88.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:48:09 PM
More short covering or real buying? TXN is up another 5.8% on top of yesterday's big gain.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:47:04 PM
A couple of weeks ago we were watching Capital One Financial (COF) for a breakout over resistance near the $72.00 level. Today shares are surging 3.9% to $72.33 on positive comments from Prudential on its loan growth. Volume is above average so this may be a breakout worth a second look. The move has produced a spread triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart with an $82 target.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  1:45:59 PM
Need to step away for 15 minutes here.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:44:27 PM
Tech bulls will note that IBM has surged higher in the last three sessions to breakout above its descending trendline of resistance but is now challenging its simple 100-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  1:43:12 PM
The strength in the software sector has helped Symantec (SYMC) breakout over major resistance at the $50.00 mark. Unfortunately, we're starting to see the rally fade.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  1:34:23 PM
I'm wondering now if that last little spike was Linda's stop-running push

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  1:33:48 PM
QQQ tried but remains within pennies of the 34.84 level, still chopping sideways within the range.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  1:29:39 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  1:27:45 PM
SPX rises to challenge the downtrend line on the 10-min chart, currently sitting at about 1120.40 Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/10/200,  1:27:41 PM
I think the bid under the market is a Bush victory being priced in. Only recently has either candidate really separated himself from the other. Jay

Jay, you may have hit the bullseye on that one. Bush rising, oil falling.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/10/200,  1:25:12 PM
Max Pain Levels for September

Dow 10100
NDX 1375
SPX 1100
OEX 540
RUT 560
SOX 370
BKX 97
QQQ 35
SMH 30
IBM 85
MMM 80
GOOG 100
INTC 22.50
MSFT 27.50
TASR 32.50

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  1:20:19 PM
SPX new HOD @ 1119.36... if this continues we could see a strong move to the upside.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  1:18:16 PM
We have a buy signal... MACD just turned sharply higher and crossed up

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  1:17:00 PM
The SPX 1-min chart just printed a MACD bearish kiss but is now trying to turn back up. If MACD can make a bullish cross that will be a buy signal (CCI is set up perfectly)..... but MACD has not made that bullish cross yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  1:09:08 PM
Regarding Marc's comments in Jim's 13:02:30, I want to add that my own bullish calls, when I've made them, are based solely on the cycle picture, chart pattern and other technicals I report. My own fundamental feeling, along with my observations of the QQV and other volatility measures, are anything but bullish. But I prefer to ignore them and follow the cycles, support, resistance and chart patterns, which combine to give me a better feel for the markets than either options volatility or my gut or fundamental analysis, all of which have tend to be bearish.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  1:04:13 PM
The 30 min QQQ is painting the same picture as the daily QQQ a few days ago when I wondered whether the pause at the highs was distribution or consolidation. Presumably, all who wanted to short 34.84 have already done so, and unless it's being propped up by da_boyz for distribution purposes, the next short squeeze/stop-buy run should bring us to 35.00 resistance pretty quickly. We just won't know which way it's going to be until either 34.90 or 34.75 break.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  1:02:32 PM
There's the hard slap in the face... it came at SPX 1118.95, just 5 cents short of 1119. Still, no real conviction to the downside yet.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/10/200,  1:02:30 PM
Every market top this year, especially January, occured when VXN hit 20, except in June, when in moved below 18 briefly. Today's low print is exactly 20. Being a tech bull right now is not very good odds, but I guess everyone is getting used to me saying that...Marc

Agreed, but it appears the crowd has not figured it out yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  12:54:39 PM
Note that the VXO is up 1.09% here (a whole 15 cents) at 13.90 despite the gains in equities- however, the QQV, which tracks QQQ volatility, is down a whopping 1.05 or 5.5% to 18.04. That looks like nosebleed low territory to me, but then, so did 19.09 yesterday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  12:48:49 PM
The lack of downside action despite the 30 minute cycle rollover from overbought looks bullish to me, as a corrective/sideways/weak downphase is generally indicative of a bullish longer cycle- in this case the daily- and is generally followed by a strong upphase. Bulls want to see the 34.75 level hold for any weakness, which should be followed by an explosive upphase once the 30 min cycle turns back up. However, there are still potentially hours to go for the 30 min cycle downphase, unless QQQ trades above 35.00, in which case the downphase will abort and we'll be seeing a bullish trending move in that timeframe.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  12:44:49 PM
We're starting to edge up ever so slightly. Watch the SPX 1119 area for a breakout to the upside or a hard slap in the face... currently printing 1118.80

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  12:38:05 PM
B-bands are as tight as they have been all day... we could see that move any minute. I'm guessing UP but it's only a guess. It could go either way. My bias is to the upside based on Jeff's inchworm theory, i.e the stronger market "should" pull the marginally weaker markets UP... we'll see.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  12:32:25 PM
Jane I was just about to post the same thought from a different angle... the longer we go sideways the more powerful the move is likely to be.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  12:29:33 PM
Nymex crude has just printed a session low at 43.925.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  12:26:58 PM
Bonds have yet to regain their post-PPI highs, with TNX down 2.9 bps at 4.17% currently. Gold is trading 403.80, still unable to penetrate teh 404-408 confluence discussed earlier.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  12:19:58 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  12:19:05 PM
The last swing low was SPX 1117.53... on a very short-term basis bulls do not want that number taken out. A break below that level would indicate the shortest-term trend has reversed back down. It should also be noted that a break above 1119.20 should trigger some upside traction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  12:12:32 PM
Still very little pullback in QQQ, with a 2 cent decline over the past half hour. This is corrective/consolidative action, and after the nice rise in Qubes this morning, it looks bullish to me. Nevertheless, the 30 minute cycle oscillators are on a bearish kiss, and a move below 34.75 rising bear wedge support on expanding volume could see a quick trip back to the lower end of the range. This looks to be a bearish intraday setup within an increasingly bullish daily and weekly cycle configuration.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  12:12:07 PM
SPX is trying to print a buy signal @ 1118... still unconfirmed but if this is all the bears can do to take the market down they may be running out of time.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  12:03:40 PM
Hmm.. the strength in the software sector is not transferring to ADBE as the stock is only up 15 cents and still under resistance at the $50.00 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  12:01:27 PM
The broker-dealers (XBD.X) are also ticking higher. The XBD index is hitting new relative highs and nearing resistance at the 130 level and its simple 200-dma.

GS is producing a similar pattern with new two-month highs and pushing through its exponential 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:59:48 AM
The strength in the SOX is surprising. The index has now broken through its simple 10 and 21-dma's while also breaking above its short-term five-week trend of lower highs.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  11:57:32 AM
The logjam is finally breaking to the downside. Now we wait to see how far it goes.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  11:44:46 AM
B-bands are rapidly converging on the SPX 1-min chart... we're either going to move up to the next level or begin a pullback and we should know which way in the next few minutes

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  11:39:11 AM
QQQ isn't going higher, but it's not going lower either- just pegged above 34.80. On the 30 minute chart, the move off yesterday's low looks like a rising wedge, with lower support currently at 34.72-.74. A break below that level would have an implied target as low as 34.18, with 1st support at 34.60-.65, followed by 34.47-.50 and 34.34.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  11:39:04 AM
A downtrend line drawn on the SPX 30 min chart indicates a break of 1121 would reverse the very short-term (4 day) downtrend. A downtrend line drawn on the daily chart goes all the way back to the March highs and currently sits @ SPX 1135.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:32:20 AM
Smith Barney also started coverage on Nucor (NUE) with a "sell" rating this morning but it's not having an affect. NUE is up another 0.72% to $89.07. Yesterday NUE raised its earnings outlook, raised its cash dividend and announced a 2-for-1 stock split.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/10/200,  11:30:10 AM
Mark you are right. Eventually the tail and the head has to catch up to each other.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:30:04 AM
Shares of U.S.Steel (X) had risen toward major resistance at the $40.00 level yesterday and looked poised to breakout. Until Smith Barney started coverage on the stock with a "sell" rating this morning. Shares of X are now down 2.87% to $38.81.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  11:28:42 AM
Jane I can hear Jeff's ghost talking about his inchworm (that didn't come out right but you know what I mean).

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:28:28 AM
A.G. Edwards has started coverage on Microsoft (MSFT) with a "buy" rating this morning but shares are not reacting up just 1 cent to $27.29. Shares of MSFT have been trading in a relatively tight $1.00 range for the past three weeks.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:26:18 AM
Visteon (VC) did eventually open and gapped down as expected. Shares are trading at $7.71 down 14.3%. CSFB has downgraded the stock to "under perform" and the S&P credit services has put VC's debt rating on creditwatch negative.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:23:56 AM
Mortgage lender Countrywide Financial (CFC) marks its third loss in a row after reporting August loan numbers this morning. The company said loans rose 5% in August compared to July but that business fell by 24% compared to last year as few homeowners refinanced.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  11:23:43 AM
The high print for QQQ came at 34.92, and again, the pullback is shallow, currently staying above 34.80. The high blew off in a doji spike, and the 30 minute cycle oscillators are looking toppy here- 35.00 QQQ is going to be a tough nut to crack.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  11:17:03 AM
30 min chart of SPX shows a potential H&S pattern with the neckline @ 1113.90 and a downside target of 1104 if confirmed. Considering the 200sma is @ 1114.42 this makes the SPX 1114 level all the more important Link
Daily chart of SPX shows a confirmed inverse H&S with an upside target of 1159 (you heard right) Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  11:11:10 AM
Session high for gold here at 404.20, +3.80. HUI is up 1.43% at 204.37, XAU +1.42% at 93.6.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:03:17 AM
I'm also noticing that Total Systems Svc (TSS) is breaking out through the top of its 7-month trading range and resistance at the $24.00 level and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  11:02:23 AM
EMC Corp (EMC) is breaking out through the top of its three-week trading range in addition to breaking out over the $11.00 mark and its simple 100-dma.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  11:00:58 AM
From from the talking feds:

10:59am PIANALTO: ECONOMY DOESN'T NEED LOW FED FUNDS RATE

11:00am PIANALTO SAYS CURRENT FED FUNDS RATE WELL BELOW NEUTRAL

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  11:00:19 AM
On QQQ, the daily cycle oscillator is on a bullish kiss from a much higher low, and I'm standing behind my comments from this and last week to the effect that above 35.00 QQQ, the bulls are back in control. On the weekly charts, there's an uptick starting, and a daily cycle upphase that crosses 37 QQQ will confirm a weekly cycle upphase above the descending bull flag resistance line, setting the stage for new highs for the year and a challenge of the 40.00 confluence zone. But first, bulls need to clear 34.80, which they have yet to do.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:52:49 AM
Pushing jello around their plates, Mark.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  10:52:19 AM
The bifurcated markets can be explained in another way. Money is being put to work in semis and tech stocks at the expense of the DOW, OEX and SPX... that's a rotational correction

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:51:59 AM
The wavelet and short cycles for QQQ will be trending at these levels, and any weakness below 34.80 QQQ will kick off a wavelet downphase. It will take a move below 34.65 to kick off a short cycle downphase, but with the pullbacks so far very shallow, those 12 cents look pretty far below.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  10:41:12 AM
I just looked at the $SOX... Wednesday afternoon it was trading @ 350, current print is 381.48... Wow! That's a lot of money being put to work.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:40:57 AM
Headline:

10:39am FED'S PIANALTO SAYS INTEREST RATES CAN'T STAY THIS LOW

10:41am PIANALTO SAYS U.S. GROWING AT 'RESPECTABLE PACE'

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:38:52 AM
I'm still unable to get Quotetracker working with my live QQQ chart, and so my short cycle and Keltner projections are off. I'm not willing to shut down and lose the 10 mins or so worth of data to try to get my semi-working platform fully working. The 30 min cycle oscillators are still rising, and with last week's high getting broken as I type, 35.00 QQQ is the next confluence zone.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  10:36:53 AM
When you consider the SOX has been leading the market around by the nose for the last 18 months the bifurcated markets begin to make some sense. The big question in my mind is whether the SOX has really put in a bottom. I think it has but at this point that's just a gut feeling. If the SOX has truly bottomed out the next question is will it continue to be a leading indicator for the other markets. All things considered I'm encouraged by the strength of the tech rally. I wondered at EOD yesterday if they would continue to buy the semis and so far they have. NSM is currently trading @ 14.00... Wednesday afternoon it traded @ 11.79. That's a powerful move and not likely to be reversed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:32:56 AM
Session highs for NQ and QQQ here. YM is the only index still in the red.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/10/200,  10:31:32 AM
GOOG is rocking this morning with what appears to be a major short squeeze. There is no news out to account for the jump from 102 to 105. Those looking for a new entry point for long term puts or a new short are probably targeting 105-106 as resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:27:16 AM
Very little pullback, with QQQ still pushing the 34.80 resistance zone.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:18:55 AM
QQQ is testing 34.80 resistance here. I expect a break of this level (current session high is 34.81) to target 35 resistance, a break above which should put the ball decisively in the bulls' court.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  10:18:51 AM
Nice trade Jim!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:13:36 AM
Headlines:

10:12am NY ENERGY TRADE DELAY COMMEMORATES SEPT. 11 ATTACKS

10:10am ENERGY FUTURES TRADING IN NY DELAYED TO 11AM EASTERN

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:09:38 AM
Session high for QQQ here at 34.73, a penny off yesterday's high. My intraday chart for QQQ isn't refreshing, possibly thanks to Quotetracker's new update installed this morning. I'll post a chart when I'm able to get it working.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:08:42 AM
Bonds are easing off their rally, with TNX now down 3.2 bps at 4.167%, down .76% for the day. The repo drain could be a contributing factor.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  10:08:13 AM
We need to get going to the upside here pretty soon or the complexion of the market is in danger of taking a turn for the worse. If we can bounce from current levels this morning's open will look like a final washout of weak hands, however if we continue lower it will call into question the sustainability of the rally from SPX 1060.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:04:02 AM
This morning it was the ticker service reporting a rally in the dollar, and once again, the USD Index chart shows just the opposite: Link .

Always verify.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  10:02:24 AM
A 3B weekend repo from the Fed's open market desk leaves us with a net 3.25B drain for the day.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:55:07 AM
Dow-component Alcoa (AA) is down 6% to $31.26 after its earnings warning last night. Morgan Stanley has downgraded the stock to "equal weight" on the news.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:52:22 AM
Online broker Ameritrade (AMTD) is holding up pretty well down just 1 cent to $11.72 after guiding Q4 earnings lower. The company said profits would fall to the low end of its 10 cent to 22 cent range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  9:51:57 AM
There's a 6.25B overnight repo expiring today- we await the 10AM announcement to determine whether the Fed is adding or draining for the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  9:50:55 AM
Still thinking about those bifurcated markets - the NQ had been the weakest until about 3 days ago, and is now behaving more bullishly, like a market that is working off an oversold condition. Unfortunately, on most of the cycles I track, the NQ was not oversold, but merely underperforming its peers. I'd be surprised to see the YM lead the NQ, but until the NQ range breaks, we won't know which is leading which.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:50:35 AM
Publisher Tribune (TRB) is trading lower again after announcing it would have to lower its circulation numbers for its Newsday and Hoy products. The company will take a Q3 pretax charge of $45 to $60 million to settle advertiser claims.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/10/200,  9:49:18 AM
The 200sma for SPX has moved up to 1114.24... below that we have yesterday's LOD @ 1113.60. That was a very nasty looking open for sure but we haven't done any serious technical damage yet. They are buying the semis again and TRIN is printing .69.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:46:04 AM
UBS has cut several chemical producers to "neutral". Those stocks affected are DOW, EMN, FMC, HPC.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:44:47 AM
Fedex Corp (FDX) is hitting new highs and challenging the $85.00 level after UBS upgraded the stock to a "buy".

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:43:22 AM
Eastman Kodak (EK) saying it will close five plants in France by the end of the year. The company will take a $15 million charge for severance costs and $10 million in asset depreciation.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:40:33 AM
Semiconductor stocks warning about lower earnings/revenues this morning or last night.... Transmeta Corp (TMTA), Intersil Corp (ISIL), and Atmel Corp (ATML).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  9:40:00 AM
QQQ bounced from a low of 34.48, still playing with yesterday's key 34.47-.48 confluence. The outlook is bullish above that number, with 34.60, .72 and .80 immediate overhead support. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  9:36:42 AM
Despite the opening drama, NQ and QQQ are only slightly below unchanged- YM is the weakest index today.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:35:46 AM
CNBC reporting that the NASDAQ is asking traders to stop trading for one minute between 11:00 and 11:01 as a moment of silence to remember 9/11.

 
 
  James Brown   9/10/200,  9:34:28 AM
CNBC reporting that Visteon Corp (VC) is expected to gap down from $9.00 to the $7.50-7.00 range after warning that earnings would be significantly lower. The company said they over estimated the amount of cars Ford, a major customer, would be building by 100,000 units.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  9:31:39 AM
Session lows across the board, with the notable exception of NQ which is 3 points above its overnight low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  9:25:02 AM
Daily chart of gold at this Link . The bounce from trendline confluence, complete with bullish doji hammer, is challenging the daily cycle downphase at higher price and oscillator low. This is a very bullish setup, but confluence from 404-408 going back through recent months could prove a difficult level to crack.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/10/200,  9:07:16 AM
DAteline WSJ - Michael Eisner plans to step down as Walt Disney Co.'s chief executive when his contract expires in September 2006. The decision signals the end of Mr. Eisner's two-decade stewardship of one of the world's best known brands, a reign marked by an expansion of Disney's empire, bruising corporate battles and a shareholder revolt that he narrowly survived earlier this year.

The timing of Mr. Eisner's exit, which is expected to be announced Friday, gives Disney's board plenty of time to set in place an orderly succession plan.

It also gives Mr. Eisner, once seen as unassailable, more than two years to repair a legacy that has been tarnished by declining earnings, a falling stock price and a seemingly endless string of controversies. Important to that effort will be proving that the company's nascent financial turnaround is sustainable.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  8:58:24 AM
Bonds are rallying following the news, with TNX down 6.2 bps to 4.137%, a 1.48% decline. Gold is up to a session high of 404, +3.60, as are euro futures, +.79% to 1.2279.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  8:33:03 AM
Equities are slightly higher, while bonds are bouncing, TNX down 3.9 bps at 4.16%. QQQ is up .11 at 34.68.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  8:31:57 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. JULY TRADE GAP NARROWS 8.9% TO $50.1 BLN

8:30am U.S. AUG. PPI DOWN 0.1% VS. UP 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. AUG. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 1%

8:30am U.S. JULY TRADE GAP BELOW CONSENSUS OF $52.2 BLN

8:30am U.S. JULY IMPORTS DECLINE FOR FIRST TIME IN 11 MONTHS

8:30am U.S. AUG PPI ENERGY PRICES UP 0.2%; FOOD DOWN 0.2%

8:30am U.S. JULY TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $14.9 BLN

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  8:01:12 AM
We await the 8:30 release of the July trade balance, est. -55.8B, the PPI, est. .2% and the core PPI, est. .1%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/10/200,  7:59:32 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1117.25, NQ 1392, YM 10270 and QQQ +.05 at 34.62. Gold is up 2.90 to a session high of 403.30, ditto silver +.051 to 6.239, 10-yr bonds are up .109 to 113.3594 and crude oil is up .225 to 44.825.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/10/200,  6:14:45 AM
I will be out of the Market Monitor today and likely much of Monday, too. Happy trading today and have a great weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/10/200,  6:11:02 AM
Good morning. Against expectations of an upward revision to Japan's GDP, the Cabinet Office instead revised lower for the April-June quarter, saying that the economy grew 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in that period. Annualized growth was revised lower, too, down 1.3% from the previous 1.7%. Economists had expected a 2.9% annualized growth. The GDP revision hit retailers. Many banks closed lower.

Within the first hour of trade, the Nikkei had dipped down to retest 11,000, with that test producing the expected bounce. By mid-afternoon, however, the Nikkei had dropped below 11,000 for the first time since August 25. By the close, however, the Nikkei had trimmed its more-than-200-point loss to an 87.73-point one. The Nikkei closed lower by 0.79%, at 11,083.23.

Most other Asian markets closed higher. The Taiwan Weighted was flat, up only 0.01%. South Korea's Samsung rose 4.2% after the company announced another share buyback program for the second half of the year. The company's gain helped the Kospi to turn around an early loss and close higher by 1.76%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.12%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.48%. China's government released figures showing that the growth of industrial output increased in August, heightening worries about the effectiveness of China's attempts to cool its economy. Still, the Shanghai Composite gained 0.22%.

This report is being prepared an hour earlier than usual. At that time, almost all European bourses traded higher, despite U.K. Chancellor Gordon Brown's comment that the eurozone's weak growth was responsible for the imbalances in the global economy. Ahead of a conference with economic and finance ministers in Brussels on Friday, he called for market reforms in the eurozone.

Alcoa's warning was expected to focus attention on metals stocks, with those stocks factoring heavily into the U.K.'s bourses, but the FTSE 100 was holding steady at the top of its day's range as this report was prepared. Could-have-been-worse reactions to Texas Instruments' and National Semiconductor's outlooks and a boost in software company SAP helped send tech stocks higher. So did Nokia's raising of its Q3 targets yesterday. Even management consulting and computer services company Cap Gemini gained after yesterday's losses due to an unexpected operating loss.

As of 6:08 EST, the FTSE 100 traded higher by 19.70 points or 0.43%, to trade at 4,557.70. The CAC 40 traded higher by 11.49 points or 0.31%, at 3,663.51. The DAX traded higher by 18.39 points or 0.48%, at 3,869.61.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/9/2004,  9:45:15 PM
Thursday, the Russell 2000 managed a close less than a point above its 200-sma. The NDX squeaked by with a close above the 50-dma and at the descending trendline off the 9/02 high. The SOX, however, did not manage a close above its 20-dma, an average that has been pressuring it for months. The BIX dropped below the tweezer-top formation on its daily chart, but printed a doji just above its 10-dma, indicating that it might be trying to stop its descent. The TRAN printed a doji at the top of a steep climb, in a possible double-top area, creating doubt about whether it will head higher or reverse. The TRAN, Dow, SPX, and OEX preserved the possibility of building H&S's on their 30-minute charts. Bifurcation. We used to hear that word a lot on CNBC.

Perhaps now the tech-related indices are attempting a recovery, adding their power to the markets, but that low VIX warns us not to be all-out bullish without adding in a bit of caution. For several days, the VIX has been hitting sub-14 levels. Over this summer, dips below 14 have marked intermediate-term market tops in the making, but tops that might actually form several days after the first sub-14 level.

The VIX offers a warning, perhaps, but it's price we must watch. The task is easy enough with the OEX: watch for a move below the neckline of the H&S, perhaps at about 542 although there's some leeway for drawing that neckline, as a sign that bears rule, and watch for a move above the 200-sma as a sign that bulls do. Either direction, the OEX soon moves into a congestion zone, so be watchful of your stops and guard profits. One note: the SPX's version of the H&S is perhaps the most classic, with a horizontal neckline at 1113.57, just below the 200-sma. The Dow's neckline is at its 200-sma. Watch these two indices, then, to confirm that they've also broken through their necklines and their 200-sma's before you jump into a bearish OEX play on a break of the neckline. Otherwise, the OEX might just have hit the neckline an instant before those other indices do, and then the others could bounce the markets.

What about those bears more interested into entering nearer the top of the shoulder than the neckline break? That might be riskier with the Russell 2000 shooting above its 200-sma Thursday, as there's no guarantee that the H&S's will confirm. We've seen so many of these over the last year and a half that appear ready to roll over into a right shoulder and instead shoot up past the head, negating the formation. With that caution, here's what I see on the OEX's five-minute Keltner chart. Near Thursday's close, the OEX settled at the neckline of a possible smaller H&S on the five-minute chart. That smaller formation is the top of a possible right shoulder on the larger potential H&S. That sometimes happens. The OEX was possibly ready to rise into a right shoulder on that five-minute chart formation, with the shoulder up toward 544.50. Keltner resistance was at that time trying to converge near 544.20, and it's possible that would be as far as the OEX would get on the first test of resistance. Those interested in taking on that risk of entering a bearish trade nearer the shoulder of the larger formation than the neckline of the larger formation could watch this smaller formation. Watch for either a rollover at a right-shoulder level, below 544.60 or so, or for a move above the head, at 545.47. A move above the head of this smaller formation would negate the formation and show that bulls were still in the lead over the very short term, but this wouldn't be the appropriate place for a new bullish entry, just below the 200-sma. An attempted bounce that rolled over into a right shoulder of that smaller formation (also beginning a rollover on the right shoulder of the larger one) and then moved below the neckline of the smaller formation at about 543.64 would show that over the short-term bears lead the way. An entry at the neckline of that smaller formation, at about 543.64, would constitute an entry just ahead of the 541.50-542 possible bounce zone, though, and has its own risks.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/9/2004,  9:45:09 PM
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