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  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  5:17:15 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  4:22:54 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.29 -0.9% .... got plunked lower in the last 5-minutes of trade from $27.49 on hefty volume of 7.15 million shares.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  4:13:57 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Closed out the 3 SWC Oct. $12.50 covered calls (SWCJV) at $2.90 offer. ($-0.20 per contract, or $-60.00).

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  4:08:30 PM
Earnings for tomorrow morning

ALOG, BSC, CMTL, CAG, FDX, MWD, WOR

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  4:07:35 PM
35.53 is next support, followed by 35.45 QQQ. A short cycle downphase is underway.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  4:07:32 PM
CBK reported inline at 15 cents

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  4:06:17 PM
JBL beat estimates by a penny at 27 cents.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  4:00:47 PM
The 30 min cycle oscillators are taking the first steps of a rollover on NQ, but the toppy daily cycle got a boost from today's gains. A weak downphase tomorrow would be bullish, while a break below 35.18 will kick off the long-awaited daily cycle downphase.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  4:00:34 PM
PAYX is reporting at 23 cents and inline with estimates.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:55:25 PM
All sectors green to the close.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  3:54:03 PM
I'm still short from 1126.27, only because we are at strong resistance, but this has been a frustrating day to say the least. I had the right idea yesterday afternoon with the long play from 1122.07 but was stopped out by a little over 1/4 point and then watched a potential +9 point gain go up in smoke. Now I'm faced with the decision of whether or not to close out the short play before EOD. I'm trying to weigh the importance of the confirmed SPX daily inverse H&S pattern pointing to SPX 1159 against all the negative factors to further upside. This could very well be a blowoff top. It could also be just a pause before heading higher.

My charting service just came back up after going down on the big spike (as it always seems to do when you need it most). SPX printed a sell signal very close to the top but is now working on a potential buy signal. CCI has printed -235 but MACD is threatening to print a bearish kiss which could send SPX further down... jury is still out but I'm leaning towards more downside as TRIN rises (although still bullish). As I typed this SPX did print a buy signal but only on a single CCI reading of -235 followed by a MACD bullish cross.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:53:31 PM
I had CNBC muted while A.J.C. was speaking, but wished I had heard it.

This upturn in the OEX has flattened the MACD, which had been in the process of making a bearish cross on the daily chart. Stochs have turned down below the signal line, but have flattened, too. The OEX has climbed today, but it hasn't broken out of the descending regression channel on the daily chart, above the 200-sma, out of the potential bull flag on the daily chart, or out of the broadening formation on its 60-minute chart. Pring and Murphy weren't kidding when they said these rare formations are difficult to trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:52:16 PM
That 35.65 level is holding so far, with the wavelet downphase just ending here. That's a very bullish development for QQQ, but again, volume is light today, and the QQV below 18 makes it difficult to trust the upside. The uplegs here feel like they're climbing a ladder at the top of a mountain- but that's my subjective gut feeling. Above 35.60-.65, the bulls are in control for now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:46:16 PM
Jim ... Jonathan should know better than I, but aren't we right near Ms. Cohen's bullish comments a couple of months ago?

The NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,630.75 +0.98% Link is higher I'm sure.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:44:51 PM
Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 213.73 +3.66% Link .... challenging the Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 670.48 +3.79% Link for sector winner now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:42:16 PM
Oshkosh Truck (OSK) $56.95 +0.45% Link ..... I sold small bullish position I had Monday morning after oil's close above $45.50 on Friday. Stock hanging tough after a rather "easy" move above its 200-day SMA.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  3:42:11 PM
Please not Abby. Definitely a top in place now if she is still bullish. As a condition for her appearance she supplies the questions to the interviewer in advance. That allows her to give her scripted answers. I suspect she has a hard time getting Tyler to follow the script. He has a hard time not ad libbing his own normal lines.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:39:53 PM
Yellow Roadway (YELL) $45.85 +2.25% Link .... looks to challenge recent all-time high.

Company's CEO has been saying buisness strong for several quarters and that fuel prices haven't been an issue. Hard to believe, but MARKET has been a believer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:38:39 PM
The Keltner channels show support trying to converge near 543.50-543.85.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  3:38:35 PM
Marty sent me a very interesting link on how government economic numbers have evolved over the years. Pay specific attention to the Jobs numbers at the bottom. Thanks Marty! Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:37:12 PM
Sohu.com (SOHU) $17.30 +0.58% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:36:31 PM
Netease.com (NTES $38.92 -0.25% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:35:44 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $31.64 +1.34% Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:35:09 PM
QQQ chart update at this Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:34:49 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.53 +1.64% Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:34:12 PM
The OEX is smack in the middle of that broadening formation again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:33:51 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR $38.96 +2.8% Link ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:33:03 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.08 +2.54% Link ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:27:58 PM
That makes 4 of us. VXO now 12.81.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:27:44 PM
Jim's 3:25 post is indicative of my own thinking when I study the TRAN. I've mentioned my puzzlement several times lately. What is this climb in the face of higher fuel costs telling us? Are we missing something? I represent the self-taught trader on this board, not pretending to know more than I do know about economics, but that puzzles me.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  3:26:58 PM
I'm glad I'm not the only one here who feels the way Jim and Dave do.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  3:25:37 PM
Am I missing something with the VXO at 12.84? Last time it was this low and market keep climbing was early 90's - grosth economy and peace dividend and internet. I do not see the reason for the lack of fear. What is the market going to use to climb from here? I am selling Call Credit spreads on the SPX but I do so with some concern that there is something I do not understand. Dave

If you are missing it then so am I. Oil headed for $50, strong possibility of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil before the elections. Largest percentage of earnings warnngs since 2001. Chips still warning. IT surveys predicting even slower IT buying in 2005. Interest rates climbing. The only really good news is the hurricane damage. That could run to a $30 to $40 billion rebuild and that will boost the economy for the next 12-18 months. It might be the only thing that keeps us out of another recession.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:24:52 PM
Today I've mentioned that battling H&S and inverse H&S, with the same neckline. When the OEX popped back above the neckline of the H&S, it was confirming the inverse one. The OEX has now met the upside target for that inverse H&S, and so might be expected to pull back. It's also battling Keltner resistance and that descending trendline off the 9/13 high. It's time for a pullback, and the depth of that pullback will tell us whether the breakouts are intended or were just short-covering. Be careful to protect profits.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:24:05 PM
Session high for gold at old 412 resistance. Next resistance is 414-415.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  3:23:58 PM
Copper prices are up 1.8% to $1.34 a pound. I believe these are new 8-to-10 year highs. Unfortunately, Qcharts doesn't have a continuous price chart for the metal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:18:25 PM
The OEX is now battling Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart as well as the descending trendline off the 9/13 high. Bulls still want to see 15-minute closes above the Keltner channel currently at 545.32.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:17:15 PM
The move to 35.85 QQQ gave us the first upper 30 min Keltner band touch since yesterday at 11AM. On the Dow futures, it was a channel break. This is usually a reversal signal, but more rarely the start of a trending move. The indices fail to return to the highs in the next few minutes, then the odds will favor some downside from here. Anything above 35.65 will be corrective, while below 35.60, a new 30 min channel downphase will be underway.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:13:35 PM
QQV is plummeting, down 1.32 or 6.94% at 17.69.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:10:29 PM
VXO 12.85

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:08:19 PM
Bulls need to see 35.62-.65 QQQ hold for any retest. A wavelet downphase should be starting any minute, but if the dip bounces at or above the 35.62-.65 level, it will be a bullish confirmation of the last upward surge.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:06:37 PM
The OEX briefly pierced a descending trendline off the 9/13 high, and now declines beneath it again. Bulls want to see 15-minute closes above the Keltner line at 545.26, a level that's about to be tested again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  3:06:08 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  3:06:07 PM
Nike Inc (NKE) is up 2.19% and breaking out over resistance at $78.50 to hit new all-time highs.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  3:04:47 PM
VXO under 13 at 12.96 and a new multiyear low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  3:04:44 PM
The Russell 2000 appears to be attempting a breakout above the descending regression channel in which it's been trading on the daily chart. The two S&P's appear to be testing the upper boundaries of theirs. Note that the OEX remains within that broadening formation and below its 200-sma, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:03:12 PM
Here's a look at the action in the USD Index (30 min delayed refreshable chart): Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  3:02:44 PM
VXO hit 13.02 and a new low

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  3:01:13 PM
Freddie Mac (FRE) is looking bullish here but the stock has long-term resistance at $70.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:01:02 PM
VXO 12.97, -3.21%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  3:00:06 PM
That VXO print should be in the neighbourhood of a 9 year low.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  2:59:48 PM
Another oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP) is breaking out over resistance at $80.00, up 3.5% to $82.26.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:59:46 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,131 , QQQ $35.79

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:58:44 PM
QQQ has pulled back again from 35.77, but volume is lopsidedly bullish here and its peers are continuing to walk higher. 30 min channel resistance has advanced to 35.83.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  2:58:08 PM
Noticing that banking giant JPM is up 1.67% and pushing past the $40.00 level. JPM has been stuck in a trading range between $39 and $40.10 for the last three weks.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:55:46 PM
Session highs for Naz and Dow futures here, with QQQ trading yesterday's high at 35.77. This is make-or-break time for QQQ.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  2:55:40 PM
Oil stocks are really taking off here...

XOM is up 2.59% to new all-time highs.
CVX is up 2.74% to new all-time highs.
BP is up 2.34% to new all-time highs.
TOT is up 3.25% to new all-time highs.
.. you get the idea....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:55:26 PM
Another push higher on the OEX, away from the neckline. Keltner channels set next resistance at 545.42, with that resistance line turning higher, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:54:08 PM
02:50 Market Watch at this Link

Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.09 -1.01%, which is 30-minute delayed just broke below WEEKLY S1.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:49:59 PM
The OEX continues to inch higher, above the neckline, but Keltner resistance is inching higher along with it, too, so that there hasn't been a breakout yet, at least not if defined by a five-minute close above a Keltner channel's upper resistance. That doesn't mean that the OEX can't continue climbing. It can, carrying that resistance along on its shoulders, but it makes it more difficult to set an upside target as the trading looks heavier and more susceptible to a downturn at any moment. Bulls want to continue to see five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 543.71 while bears want to start seeing five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 543.11. There appears to be significant Keltner support near that line, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:49:10 PM
JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) $39.97 +1.49% .... notable pickup in intra-day volume since FOMC. Session highs here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:48:01 PM
They're doing a pretty good job of making me sweat out the short play. TRIN has dropped to .75

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:44:14 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 363.71 +0.11% ... little moved after FOMC announcement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:42:34 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) now down a fractional 0.6 bp at 4.054%. More importantly, testing upward yield trend from June 2003 lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:39:06 PM
Session high for Dec. silver futures at 6.40, +2.04%. HUI is up 2.98% at 212.32, XAU +2.61% at 95.56.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:36:52 PM
The TRAN has been forming a triangle on its 15-minute chart, with the top descending trendline forming off the 9/17 high. Just prior to the FOMC meeting announcement, the TRAN popped above that descending trendline and then ran up post-decision just above 3260.50. The TRAN has come back now to test that descending trendline, to see if it holds as support. As the former Fed governor on CNBC appeared to be doing with reference to the Fed's statement about the nature of the higher fuel costs (transitory or not), I'm kind of shaking my head at the TRAN's ignoring of higher fuel costs. Is the TRAN telling us something about the economy, I've been wondering lately, or are some of the TRAN's components just overbought and due for a correction?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:35:02 PM
Volume has picked up, but it's only now returning to normal levels. Price continues to trade both sides of 35.60-.62. Bonds, however, have just flipped to positive territory, TNX now -.9 bps at 4.049%. We have bonds up, gold and silver up, equities up and the CRB up. I'll wait to see the 30 min delayed USD Index, but my guess it that it's down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:33:42 PM
Swing trade close covered call alert Buy back the previously sold SWC Oct. $12.50 calls for $1.90.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:32:36 PM
CCI readings never reached the -200 level on that precipitious drop from 1128.21 but CCI readings pre- and post- the FOMC announcement were +360, +350 and +420, so even though the short from 1126.27 is now slightly underwater I'm expecting further decline based on the extreme CCI readings.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:31:53 PM
Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 212.04 +2.84% Link .... session highs. A second-consecutive double-top buy signal here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:29:02 PM
The OEX tested mid-channel support on the five-minute chart, down at 543.11, and now rises from that support. Bulls need to see continued five-minute closes above 543.50 as only a first step in a possible move higher, though, and it's far from clear whether that will happen as yet. The OEX is once again at that neckline for the H&S on the 60-minute chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:26:11 PM
Look for a break below 35.52 QQQ to set up a test of 35.45 confluence/Keltner support on the way to 35.34 and ultimately 35.18 support.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:25:28 PM
Bailing on the long for +1/2 pt... the short is looking better from 1126.27

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:25:00 PM
Here's an update of the OEX's 60-minute chart with the H&S and broadening formation, but with last night's annotations: Link There's been no upside breakout or at least not a sustained one, and the OEX remains within that difficult-to-trade broadening formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:23:16 PM
02:21 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:22:30 PM
The IB feeds for gold and silver futures went down briefly there, but are back up and showing both metals back to their previous levels, gold at 411.30 below the high of 411.80. Other than a small spike, this has so far been a VERY muted reaction - even bonds have recovered from their post-announcement dive.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:22:08 PM
OEX bulls want to see the OEX settle the current 15-minute period above 543.75. Bears want the opposite.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:20:46 PM
Long @ 1126.25

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:19:33 PM
The Russell 2000 is right at the 80.9% retracement of the summer's decline again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:19:01 PM
The OEX is right back to that neckline again.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:18:53 PM
That spike happened so fast I never got the chance to get long.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:18:36 PM
Breakout on the OEX. Keltner channels suggest an upside target of 545.11, but I wouldn't trust anything right now. . . and, as I typed, the breakout signal is perhaps in the process of being undone.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:17:54 PM
Session highs printing here with NQ futs up to 1442 and QQQ touching 35.72. Yesterday's high was 35.77.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  2:17:18 PM
Complete text of FOMC statement: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:17:13 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,127.65 , QQQ $35.70

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:16:41 PM
TNX +4.9 bps at 4.107%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:16:04 PM
Headlines:

> 2:15pm FED HIKES RATES BY QUARTER POINT TO 1.75%

2:15pm EURO AT $1.2277; DOLLAR AT 109.94 YEN

2:15pm FED SAYS ECONOMY HAS 'REGAINED TRACTION'

2:15pm FED SAYS LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS IMPROVED MODESTLY

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:16:02 PM
As the Fed decision was announced, the OEX was pointed at a breakout level on the five-minute Keltner chart, right at that neckline again, so at significant resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:15:40 PM
14:15 *DJ Fed Raises Rates 0.25-Pt To 1.75%; Sees Balanced Risks

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  2:15:27 PM
Alert - Fed raises rates 25 basis points guidance suggests a pause in hikes but measured pace language was retained. "inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months" and "With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured."

This is just a very small crack in the previous statement that may suggest they can pass at the next meeting. The Fed speak over the next month will further clarify.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:15:18 PM
Linda if I could have that long play back from 1122.02 I would be perfectly hedged. Unfortunately I'm now at the market's mercy since the pullback never came. Maybe after the announcement the pullback will come but then I'll be faced with the decision of whether or not to hedge.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:14:22 PM
QQQ 100-tick chart at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:13:37 PM
There's some negative volume coming in here on QQQ, but price remains pinned at 35.65. Gold 410.30, TNX +1.9 bps at 4.077%, Nymex crude +.70 at 46.90.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:09:53 PM
I like Mark's tactic of hedging and letting the markets tell him which play will be profitable. As with all tactics that are new to you, be sure you understand the risks. Those risks can include market risks, or risks due to your personal trading style. What do I mean? Well, in my case that means a tendency to try to overtrade when I'm in a hedged position that I didn't enter as a single trade. I don't know what happens to me, but something makes me sure I can beat the market, and I try to trade in and out of the thing. So, understand your own limits when deciding what kind of plays to enter or not enter.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:09:03 PM
SPX has just printed a sell signal @ 1126.16, complete with two consecutive CCI readings over +300, a sharp MACD bearish cross and a big red candle. All this needs to be taken in context (discounted) in a pre-Fed meeting atmosphere.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:06:40 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:06:08 PM
I show the 80.9% retracement of the Russell 2000's summer plunge at about 547.67, a level the Russell 2000 has been challenging over the last seven trading sessions. It's pushed above that level on several days, but has not yet been able to close above it. As I type, the Russell 2000 is at 574.73.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  2:05:35 PM
Volume is starting to pick up on the most recent uptick above the 35.60-.62 line for QQQ.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  2:04:55 PM
Linda the CCI readings were just too extreme for me to ignore. If we get a pullback here I'll probably enter a concurrent long play from a lower level and then let the market decide which position is the winner. This my favorite way to play potentially explosive situations.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  2:03:28 PM
The OEX pushed above the neckline of the H&S, confirmed but its downside target not met, and the inverse H&S that now looks somewhat misshapen because it stretched out into a doubtful right shoulder. The OEX showed a first five-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 543.62, supposedly a breakout signal, but during the current five-minute period, it's diving right down to test both the neckline and the Keltner line. Just can't trust anything right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  2:01:23 PM
December Fed Funds futures (ff04z) 98.02 .... slip to 100% chance of 50-basis point by/at December FOMC meeting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  1:59:03 PM
Mark's 13:51 post points out one danger of jumping in here, with those alternating signals. On the OEX, I see that Keltner support looks stronger on the five-minute chart, but Keltner resistance is trying to firm up on the 15-minute one. The Dow hovers near key support; its sister index, the TRAN, near recent highs. The BIX tries to find support at its 20-dma, not so far above key support; the SOX sits just above one version of a neckline for an inverse H&S, seemingly ready to take off now that it's pushed past that neckline. I could go on, but you get the picture. Either some of these are going to head the opposite direction they appear poised to head now or else these markets are going to whip all over the place as some indices try to head through support while others try to head through resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:58:57 PM
Short @ 1126.27

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:58:44 PM
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is up 2.47% and hitting new all-time highs at $149.70. Today broke through resistance at the old high at $148.40.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:56:23 PM
SPX another new HOD @ 1126.06 and accelerating

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  1:55:25 PM
Bonds are weakening slightly, TNX up 2.7 bps to 4.085%, still within this morning's range. Dec. gold futures are resting on 410 support. QQQ is printing a session high as I type at 35.63, trying for a triangle break but without the confirming volume.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:55:04 PM
Juniper Networks (JNPR) is also doing well up 4.1% and breaking out over resistance at $25.00 to hit new 4 1/2 month highs.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:54:21 PM
Approaching HOD again and if the 1-min chart is to be believed this is looking like a good short signal developing.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:54:12 PM
Biotech GENZ is doing well with a 3% rally to breakout of its recent trading range. These are new seven-month highs.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  1:54:05 PM
I have been trying to get a long entry into EBAY for over a month while the turkey just kept moving higher. I hope it does drop a couple more dollars.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:52:40 PM
Semiconductor stock LLTC has seen every rally to its simple 200-dma fail and roll over in the last four months. The stock is challenging the 200-dma again today as it breaks out over minor resistance at $38.00. Will it continue to breakout or reverse lower?

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:51:34 PM
SPX printed a buy signal @ 1125.20 and b-bands are rapidly converging... for some reason I just don't trust the buy signal and am thinking they might shake the tree one last time before the Fed minutes are released. As I typed this SPX rose to 1125.75 and we have another CCI print of +300. Sheesh! Talk about a psychotic chart.... short, long, short, long, short

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:49:55 PM
AAPL is extending its gains now up four days in a row to $38.20. Obviously investors are not concerned over MSFT's move into the online music market.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:48:20 PM
The rally in RIMM had stalled the last three days as it coiled under round-number resistance at $75.00. RIMM is breaking higher today up 2.11% to $76.19.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/21/200,  1:47:05 PM
I came close to adding QCOM to the leaps section last Sunday but felt the news needed to be digested first. A break over $39.50 (post dip high) would be very positive.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:46:34 PM
Technical oscillators like the stochastics and RSI have turned bearish on EBAY. Its MACD has also produced a new "sell" signal from overbought levels. The stock is currently testing support at the $90.00 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:44:11 PM
It's interesting to see QCOM bouncing after Friday's weakness. The stock never traded below its late August lows and now shares are approaching the $40 level again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  1:44:06 PM
The 30 min cycle on QQQ is now stalled in its weak upphas, and the 30 min cycle channel bands are compressing to a range of 35.42-35.68. It's rare that Keltner channels contract, but the lack of range has the 30 min and 60 min Keltners on my 100-tick chart behaving more like Bollinger bands today. Again, I'm guessing that this range is going to break to the downside, based on the lack of price traction from the 30 min cycle upphase and the toppiness in the daily cycle. In any event, a break either above 35.77 or below 35.18 should be directional.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:39:18 PM
MACD is hinting at one more dip. If we get it I'll likely go long and will probably not wait for a confirmed buy signal. SPX 1124.50-1125 is the general area I'm looking for... don't try this at home unless you use "throw away" money.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  1:37:59 PM
Funny, but I expected more of a concerted effort to park the Dow under its 200-sma before the FOMC decision. Instead, it's being parked just above 10,200 support. Some other indices are being parked just under significant resistance, though, as if ready for an upside breakout. Its sister index, the TRAN, is hovering near recent highs, for example. Hmm. Hope this doesn't hint that we'll continue to see bifurcated markets after the decision, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  1:34:30 PM
The OEX has drifted down to an area that looks to have significant Keltner support, from the OEX's current position down to 542.91. That suggests that a bounce may begin, but 543.54 might be significant resistance, too, so it's unclear which will win over. Five-minute closes above the line currently at 543.54 would hint that an upside breakout was beginning while closes below the line currently at 542.91 would suggest that the OEX could test 542.40. I don't trust many of these "suggestions" in a pre-FOMC environment, though.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:27:45 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:26:34 PM
Potential buy signal developing... the 1-min chart is all over the map today with very small changes in price. Hopefully this is the start of the stop running push and will print a buy signal. I'd still rather be long going into the Fed meeting than short.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  1:25:21 PM
Nymex crude oil is currently trading 46.85, +.65 or 1.41%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  1:25:00 PM
A break below 35.50-.52 will invalidate the bullish rising triangle scenario on the intraday QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  1:21:45 PM
Back to the neckline for the OEX.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:20:48 PM
That little spike to new highs produced a CCI reading of +320. MACD has just crossed down but with TRIN @ .80 and the Fed meeting dead ahead I hesitate to trust anything. Another CCI reading over +200 may tempt me to short this. SPX 1126 has been strong resistance but if it's taken out we could see a sharp rally to 1130. If 1130 is taken out then we can look to the daily inverse H&S pattern (confirmed quite a while ago) that points to SPX 1159. What to do, what to do...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  1:15:13 PM
The CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 both traded in a straight line through most of their trading days and both ran higher into the close. The DAX had oscillated in a wider range, but it's also running higher now, although not above the high of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  1:14:35 PM
The action on the QQQ chart over the past 2 hours is looking like a rising triangle below 35.60. Volume is so light that signals have a much higher likelihood of whipsawing, but a break above 35.60-.62 on expanding volume would look like a triangle breakout from here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  1:12:01 PM
QQQ 100-tick 2-day chart update at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  1:10:58 PM
The VXO is currently up 2.16% to 13.69 while QQV is down 2.31% to 18.57.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  1:09:01 PM
The OEX still clings to the neckline, but may be pushing higher as I type. It will soon encounter Keltner resistance at 543.52. A breakout above that trendline, sure to be pushed higher if the OEX also moves higher, would set up a move up to 545.11, but I wouldn't be counting that a sure thing just yet. I think we're probably going to get some trial runs before a real movement gets underway, although sometimes that's not the case. There has not as yet been a breakout, either.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  1:07:35 PM
Barnes & Noble (BKS) is just now breaking out over resistance near $36.40 and hitting new highs not seen since November 2001.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:07:13 PM
Potential short signal developing...

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  1:06:10 PM
B-bands are rapidly converging as SPX hold right near HOD. We could be about to squirt higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  1:06:01 PM
12:58 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  12:56:58 PM
October Crude Oil futures (cl04v) $47.00 +1.4% (30-min delayed) ... updated 30-minute interval chart into tomorrow's weekly inventory data. Link

Looks $47.81-ish in my opinion.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  12:56:17 PM
Can I have my long trade from 1122.02 back? I'm sure that's why the compulsion to go long is gnawing away at me.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  12:54:24 PM
I've got that "left standing at the station" feeling, wanting to chase the train... that's usually the worst time to enter a trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:53:21 PM
Gosh, I'm not sure, Mark. I think they're going to try to nail indices to certain numbers, but if somebody blinks or loosens a grip, we could get a market running away in some direction or another. For a few minutes. Right now, up appears to have a slightly better chance than down on both the OEX and SPX, but that could change completely by the time of the usual stop-running push. I'm not certain that Keltner evidence is all that useful today, either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  12:52:48 PM
The 30 min cycle upphase for QQQ continues against the 60 min cycle downphase. Cyclewise, its the juxtaposition of these two cycles that's resulting in abnormally long sideways range. 35.18-35.77 is this week's range, and we can only hope that one of these long intraday cycles follows a range break to get in gear with the dominant one. I'm still guessing that the 60 min cycle will prevail, but will follow the price whichever way it wants to go.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  12:51:44 PM
SPX new HOD @ 1125.64

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  12:49:53 PM
What I'm hoping for is a stop run to the downside to provide an entry point long. Linda can you arrange that for me today with your stop running push? I would be eternally grateful.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:45:22 PM
Predicting the Presidential Winner...

Here's an excerpt from an CNN article:

"Forget about the guesswork from the political pundits and ignore all those election polls. The real key to predicting the outcome of the presidential election is this year's face-off of the Halloween masks.

It's as unscientific as it gets, but the theory, according to some people in the costume business, is that the winner in every election since 1980 has been the candidate whose masks were most popular on Halloween. So far this year, Bush masks have been outselling those of Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry by a 57 percent to 43 percent margin, ...."

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  12:44:30 PM
Still waiting for that dip to the 1124-1124.50 area and a buy signal to go long. Ever since HOD we've had small impulsive looking red candles followed by bear flags that lead SPX down in an excruciatingly ponderous slow motion bleed. It may have ended at 1124.75 when we printed a swing low equal to the swing low from 15 minutes earlier. At this point any trade is going to be speculative but I'm still leaning towards and upside resolution. I want to be long going into the Fed meeting and probably will bite at some point but picking an entry point is a nightmare.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  12:43:01 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.42 -0.65% ..... overnight low came this morning at 08:20 AM EDT, where session low of 88.34 did find buyers just above our WEEKLY S1 (88.32).

As I see it now, Stillwater Mining (SWC) resistance equivalent is $14.00, while the $HUI.X is obviously this 212 level.

I have to think we're in a holding pattern for some type of dollar response to FOMC decision.

The dollar trade is almost ALWAYS very volatile and "knee-jerk" right after the FOMC announcement. Same with Treasuries.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:39:32 PM
As I'm sure all the other writers are doing, I'm scanning charts over and over, looking for the breakout or breakdown beginning. However, from past experience, I'm also trying not to micro-manage here and just let the development develop, whatever it might be. We're close to breakout levels on some charts, breakdown levels on others. However, on almost all indices, no matter what one's favorite, we're close to some make-it-or-break-it level, one that would allow you to quickly determine whether you were on the right or wrong side of the trade. I'd like to recommend that all wait until the initial reaction to the Fed's decision and statement is over before considering entering a trade, but in some cycles, there's a front-running movement into the decision that isn't always reversed, so that the movement is well underway before the decision. Tough to know what's right to do or right to recommend. Just know what you're risking.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:35:39 PM
Guess Jim and I have to stay away from those games the next time there's an OIN conference. I'd have to cry or something if I lost.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:35:21 PM
Hmm... for you gamers or parents of gamers out there...Sony (SNE) says that they'll launch the new PlayStation 2 by November 1st just in time for this year's Christmas shopping season.

The new model is said to be as small as a hardcover book. Details: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  12:34:05 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:32:50 PM
We've now got the dreaded equilibrium position on the OEX's Keltner chart. Actually, that's about what I expected to see about now. I also expected to see the OEX clinging to either the neckline of the H&S on its 60-minute chart or the lower trendline of the broadening formation--either next strong support or next strong resistance. We're getting the cling-to-next-strong-resistance version. Remember that if the OEX is propelled upward, it's going to be moving up through the middle of that broadening formation again, and remember how treacherous trading through those formations can be.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:31:24 PM
As much as Jim reads he usually gives me a run for my money when we play Boggle. *grin*

I'm not sure I'd want to play Boggle with you, Linda. It wouldn't be fair losing to you all the time.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:29:59 PM
Factset Research (FDS) is up 6.81% and trading near its high for the session after reporting earnings this morning that beat by 1 cent. The company also guided higher for the next quarter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:29:36 PM
Actually, when our extended families play Cranium on holidays, I'm always the team member picked to spell words backwords or unscramble words, although I long to sculpt and draw! Just want to take every turn, I guess. (I'm a wee bit competitive.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  12:28:38 PM
Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 211.13 +2.4% .... pinned against its 50% retracement from the December high (258.60) to May lows (163.81).

This leaves me very much 50/50 with what to do with the recently sold SWC Oct. $12.50 calls as the HUI.X challenges some significant near-term resistance, but continues to suggest bullishness.

Here's updated charts of SWC with my fitted retracement. Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:28:03 PM
A.G.Edwards has cut Fedex (FDX) to a "hold" based on valulation concerns. FDX is trading near all-time highs at $88. The company reports earnings tomorrow morning before the bell. Estimates are $1.08 a share.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  12:25:37 PM
QQQ is holding at the previous pennant breakout point at 35.53-.54 with volume slowed to a crawl. My tick-driven indicators are in suspended animation, and I'm not far behind.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:25:18 PM
Linda, here you go...Balderdash Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:23:17 PM
I might be, James, if I knew what Balderdash was!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  12:22:54 PM
November Fed Fund futures (ff04x) 98.12 -0.01% .... moves to just above a 50% chance of 50 basis point rate high by expiration.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:22:11 PM
In addition to clinging to that trendline that I've mentioned so often today, the OEX also hasn't been able to swing far away from its 60-minute 100/130-ema's at 542.68 and 541.81, respectively. I didn't know what I was saying yesterday when I commented that we could expect at least another hour of consolidation at those averages, if not more, did I? The "more" turned out to be a lot more. This isn't all that unusual, though. Neither is the formation of a H&S with a neckline at some time interval or another's 100/130-ema's. I've seen that happen before, although of course at the moment, I can't find a handy example. I've pointed out that tendency at other times, however.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:21:43 PM
Bank of America has upgraded both Hilton Hotels (HLT) and Host Marriott (HMT) to "buy" this morning. HLT isn't seeing much reaction but HMT is up 2.6%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  12:20:34 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:20:18 PM
Or we can make up our own definitions in an online game of Balderdash. I bet Linda is an awesome competitor at that game.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:19:40 PM
Lehman Brothers (LEH) is up 4.2% to $79.23 and hitting new five-month highs after reporting earnings this morning. The company beat estimates by 16 cents.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/21/200,  12:19:26 PM
James, maybe on boring (ennui) days like today we can get Linda to post words and see who comes up the meaning first. Livening things up a tad.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:18:41 PM
Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 2.47% to $93.95 after reporting earnings this morning and beating estimates by 32 cents a share. The stock remains under resistance at the $95 level and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:17:00 PM
That's pretty funny, Jane. I went and looked it up too!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:13:33 PM
I think I read too many 18th and 19th century novels when I was a teen.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/21/200,  12:13:03 PM
I love the words you use Linda - I learn a lot from you.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:12:23 PM
Laughing. Maybe I should have said "tedium," Jane?

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/21/200,  12:11:48 PM
For those nonwriters in the audience. ENNUI - Listlessness and dissatisfaction resulting from lack of interest; boredom: "The servants relieved their ennui with gambling and gossip about their masters" (John Barth).

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:10:36 PM
Software maker Adobe Systems (ADBE) is up 3.85% to $49.80 after reporting earnings last night that beat by 4 cents. The company also guided higher for the next quarter. The bullish P&F chart points to a $71 target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  12:09:47 PM
As might be expected with the ennui in the markets, the VIX and VXO are dropping from their day's high, with the VIX now below 14.00 again, at 13.92 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  12:09:26 PM
The 30 min cycle channel is flattening again after its brief uptick. Bonds have weakened slightly, with TNX now up 1.9 bps at 4.077%. Gold is back above 411, and the miners are holding their prior gains. Silver is up 1.83% to a session high of 6.387 here.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:08:08 PM
Restaurant chain Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) is up more than 10.5% to new all-time highs on big volume after raising its Q3 guidance this morning. Shares are looking pretty overbought here now up seven weeks in a row.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  12:07:16 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  12:05:17 PM
Dow-component and insurance giant AIG is keeping losses to a minimum down 73 cents to $70.50 after announcing that it has received a Wells notice from the SEC notifying the company that the SEC is considering civil action. AIG is holding support at the simple 200-dma and the $70 mark.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  12:03:28 PM
Nymex crude oil is down to 46.55, up .35 or .76% for the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  12:01:28 PM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick update at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  11:56:15 AM
I keep waiting for the dip that never comes. SPX just printed a buy signal (of sorts) with a MACD bullish cross @ SPX 1125.22. I say "of sorts" because there was only one CCI reading below -200 and I generally like to see a second (or third) CCI print below -200, THEN the MACD bullish cross to consider it a decent buy signal. A bullish kiss after the cross and I get very comfortable but the market is not lending itself to my trading system at all today. In addition to that we are right at the top of today's trading range, making a long play that much more dangerous (not to mention the Fed meeting).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:52:57 AM
The OEX still hugs the trendline that forms the neckline for an already-confirmed H&S on the 60-minute chart and a still-to-be-confirmed inverse H&S on the five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  11:52:28 AM
11:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:43:14 AM
GE has made it above its 200-week sma at 34.20 again today, but has not yet topped yesterday's 34.47 high. GE is at 34.41 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:42:29 AM
The 30 min cycle upphase continues for QQQ as the 30 min channel drifts slowly higher on the sideways price action. Given that the daily cycle is overbought and the 30 min cycle upphase getting poor traction, my guess here would be for the next major move to be to the downside. However, with op-ex week just ending and the markets waiting for the 2:15 announcement, there's ample reason to mistrust these price/trend-following signals. A break above 35.77 (yesterday's high) should be good for a move to 36.00 (always assuming its not a stop runner that reverses immediately), while I'd look for a move below 35.18 to confirm further downside to come.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:41:57 AM
The Nasdaq clings to its 100-sma today, with that average at 1911.35, and with the Nasdaq at 1913.41.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:34:51 AM
OEX bulls do not want to see five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 542.58, as that suggests a possible decline toward the Keltner line currently at 541.63.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  11:32:50 AM
Potential buy signal developing... It only took a -0.8 pt decline to send CCI from +220 to -220. I'd love to see SPX drop to about 1124 and print a second CCI reading under -200 followed by a MACD bullish cross but I'm not sure that's in the cards.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  11:31:41 AM
Whew! The logjam just broke to the downside with a MACD bearish kiss. Everything in me wanted to go long but the chart had a confirmed sell signal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:30:15 AM
That combined neckline of the 60-minute OEX H&S, already confirmed, and the inverse H&S on the five-minute chart has become a real battlefield, with tiny five-minute candles lining up along that trendline . . . a bigger decline began as I typed, but it hasn't yet violated closest Keltner support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:30:02 AM
Gold continues to hold just north of 410, currently 410.70, but the miners have picked up again, HUI +2.43% to 211.18 and XAU +2.14% to 95.12.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  11:26:20 AM
B-bands are rapidly converging on the SPX 1125.20 area. I am having to duct tape my hands down to stop myself from going long but that would be breaking every trading rule I have.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:24:38 AM
Volume remains light, as does the 2 cent pullback off the 35.60 resistance level, but the failure to fall back further has the 30 min cycle channels showing a slight uptick. At this point, however, I'm not getting much useful intelligence from either the oscillators or the indicators due to the extended sideways range since yesterday morning.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  11:24:17 AM
A few more medical device makers...

ZMH is just under resistance at $80.00 and its simple 100-dma.

SYK is consolidating above its simple 50 and 200-dma's near $48.

STJ is bouncing from a test at the $70 level but remains under its simple 100 and 200-dma's.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:21:46 AM
While the OEX is finding resistance at the combined H&S and inverse H&S neckline, Keltner support is cycling up underneath the OEX position. It hasn't had time to firm up yet, but if there are no five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 542.95, the OEX might go on challenging that neckline or might even pop above it, up toward 543.51. A five-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 542.54 might make a test of 541.56 more likely.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  11:21:14 AM
Keep an eye on the medical device makers today. An FDA advisory committee meets today to evaluate devices for cardiac arrest patients.

GDT is up 2.02%
BSX is up 0.26%
MDT is down 0.26%

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  11:19:39 AM
SPX just printed the sell signal but the last ten 1-min candles look like a little bull flag.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  11:18:26 AM
SPX is on the verge of printing a sell signal. If MACD does a bullish kiss (very possible) instead of a bearish cross we could see the index spike up another notch. If we get the bearish cross to confirm a sell signal I'll be looking to go long again... hopefully on a buy signal.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  11:17:53 AM
Our speculative high-risk put play in FFH is now bouncing from round-number support at $120 following several days of declines. I would look for shares to find resistance at its simple 10-dma (near $126.50) or at the $129 level. A failed rally at either level could be a new entry point. Please see the play details for the risks involved.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:17:20 AM
QQQ has stalled again at 35.60, but the pullback is only 3 cents deep and on light volume so far. The 30 min cycle is no longer rising, but channel resistance still overhead at 35.70.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  11:15:16 AM
Exit Alert - profit target achieved. OI put play APOL is down another 3.7% this morning to $73.00. We picked this play at $79.50 with an initial target of $73.50.

We are suggesting traders consider taking profits now but we're going to hold out and see if APOL can trade to $70.00-70.50, which should be the next level of support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:14:01 AM
The OEX tests the neckline of its confirmed H&S on the 60-minute chart, also testing the neckline of a yet-to-be-confirmed inverse H&S seen on the five-minute chart. They're one and the same. The OEX has pierced it, but has not had a five-minute close above it.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  11:12:00 AM
Oil stocks continue to rise today. The OIX index is up another 1.77% to 390 - another new all-time high. The OIX oil index is now working on its seventh weekly gain in a row.

OI call play AHC is also up again adding 1.85% to $86.80.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:10:33 AM
QQQ 100-tick 2-day chart update at this Link.

 
 
  James Brown   9/21/200,  11:10:03 AM
Strength in telecoms today have sent Deutsche Tele (DT) gapping above its simple 200-dma and resistance at the $18.00 mark. This looks like a significant breakout and has produced a new buy signal on its P&F chart but look out for P&F resistance near $19.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:08:56 AM
Nymex crude has pulled back slightly to 46.70, +.50 or 1.08% for the day. Bonds are firming, with TNX now up 1 bp at 4.068%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:07:08 AM
The OEX did break out of that triangle to the upside, as conventional wisdom suggested it would do, and now it's testing Keltner resistance and is soon about to test the H&S neckline's resistance. This is one of those days when there are H&S's and inverse H&S's everywhere, and I can spot a potential inverse H&S with its neckline right along the already-violated neckline of the 60-minute H&S. Confused yet? So, apparently, are the markets. I distrust most everything I see when I start seeing these competing bullish and bearish formations, with confirmed patterns not meeting their targets and an opposing pattern setting up immediately. What is there to trust in that kind of environment, as it indicates that the bulls and bears haven't yet settled which is supreme for the moment?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:06:46 AM
QQQ is breaking above the intraday descending resistance line on the pennant. Trying for a third test of 35.60 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  11:03:15 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  11:02:26 AM
You think our markets are boring today? At least we have those OEX/SPX/TRAN triangles to watch. French investors didn't even have that on the CAC 40 today as they, too, await the Fed's decision: Link European markets will of course be closed when the Fed decision is handed down. This day was spent positioning the CAC 40 ahead of the decision. According to Stockcharts.com, the CAC 40 has a P&F downside target of 3200. The current 3725 level is near the top of a consolidation band from about 3680-3740 in which the CAC 40 has been trading for the last six sessions or so. It's also just under a descending trendline off the year's high and within striking distance of that trendline, so that little jot up at the far right of this chart might have been an attempt to effect a breakout before the close. The 200-sma lies at 3645.01.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  11:00:17 AM
QQQ is winding into a pennant between 35.55 and 35.48. Volume remains light.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:55:06 AM
I was thinking more like "abused" Keene (grin)... still steaming over here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:54:05 AM
Here's the 1-min for today's action on SPX... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:43:06 AM
So far, the TRAN holds up fairly well under the assault of higher crude prices, but here's a formation to watch if you like to follow the TRAN to see what it might be telling us about the health of the economy or the impact of higher fuel costs on the economy: Link The TRAN might not break out of this formation until after the FOMC decision.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:42:21 AM
I'm seeing the same on SPX Linda, except it's right at the upper line of the triangle. If it breaks out I may have to go chop some wood to blow off steam.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  10:41:33 AM
Gold pulled back and is sitting on on 410 support. The 408 level should be much firmer if 410 doesn't hold. A break below the day low at 406, if it occurs, would provide a key outside downside reversal and portend more downside to come. A move above the day high at 411.80- call it 412- sets up a test of 414-415.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:37:29 AM
I don't want to micro-analyze too much here because it's possible that the OEX could just be settling into its pre-FOMC posture and nothing we see on the charts is going to be predictive of action. However, on the five-minute chart, the OEX is narrowing to a small symmetrical triangle during today's trading, perhaps preparatory to a move. Since the OEX rose from yesterday's low into this morning's high and then settled into that triangle, conventional wisdom might be that it will break to the upside. That's not how Keltner charts look aligned just now, but perhaps we're in for another test of that neckline for that H&S formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  10:36:44 AM
QQQ's short cycle oscillators have flattened here but are not rolling over, while the 30 min cycle channel continues to advance with resistance up to 35.72. A break above 35.60 should provide a quick pop to that upper line, while a move below 35.42 sets up a test of of 35.34 support, followed by 35.27.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:33:06 AM
I'm still ticked that my stop got hit but it looks like I may get a shot at a lower entry point, so maybe it will turn out for the best... I should have kept my mouth shut. As soon as I typed this SPX jumped a half point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  10:30:10 AM
Nymex crude oil is printing new highs at 46.90 here, +1.46% for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  10:26:45 AM
QQQ $35.51 +0.21% .... updated 30-minute interval chart Link with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels. Support building at/near the $34.80 level. Note last three weeks pivot levels as well as rising 200-pd SMA all at/near $34.80.

May be a gravitation point after FOMC release.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:26:04 AM
Closest Keltner resistance is at 542.97. That resistance looks stronger than support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  10:14:34 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:12:48 AM
I'll be looking for an opportunity to get long again ahead of the Fed meeting unless the market completely melts down.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:12:31 AM
Is it going to be one of those days again? It's possible that the OEX could remain trapped for a while now in a range from the rising, violated neckline of the H&S, now at about 543.20-543.30, and the declining, bottom trendline of the broadening formation, now at about 541.25. I hope not, but it remains a possibility.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  10:10:22 AM
QQQ is now bouncing from a lower low at 35.43, with the wavelet cycle oscillator just beginning to turn up. Short cycle resistance is at 35.60, while the 30 min channel line has advanced to 35.70.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:10:08 AM
Well that was really nice. SPX found support right at the top of this morning's gap open... just enough to come down and tag my stop. Aarrrgh!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:07:50 AM
GE continues to do battle with its 200-week sma, with GE at 34.28 and that average at 34.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:06:39 AM
The Russell 2000 is still positive, still above the 10-dma at 569.76 and the 200-sma at 565.96. It's below the 575 level that has proven so difficult over the last couple of weeks, though, at 572.74, so remains within a congestion zone.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:05:01 AM
Well I sure didn't expect to be stopped out so quickly, especially with the Fed meeting looming. I thought I had a nice jump on the market and could sit back and relax a bit for a change. No rest for the weary.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:04:36 AM
The Dow tests 10,200 again, slightly above that as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:04:03 AM
The SOX is pulling back to retest 400 and the ascending trendline that marks one version of a neckline for a potential inverse H&S on its daily chart. As I type, the SOX is at 400.82.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  10:03:51 AM
NQ is going negative here, QQQ still positive by 3 cents. The last intraday high matched the previou sone at 35.60, while the current low is testing the session low at 35.45. That's our current range, and the short cycle will follow either an upside or downside break. However, I'm leaning toward the downside based on the overbought short cycle oscillators.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  10:02:55 AM
The BIX is headed down now, finding resistance at its 10-dma, but it hasn't yet confirmed the double-top formation on its daily chart, with a trade below 362.02 needed for that confirmation. As I type, the BIX is at 362.85, slightly above yesterday's low of the day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  10:00:44 AM
Why can't they get this number correct? It seems simple enough... very frustrating.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:59:59 AM
And QCharts shows TRIN at 0.98.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:59:51 AM
Current daily QQQ:$QQV price/volatility ratio chart at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:59:25 AM
Mark, I have the TRIN at .93 currently.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/21/200,  9:59:23 AM
Mark TRIN is 0.95.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  9:58:44 AM
TRIN @ 2.92???

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:57:46 AM
The OEX just produced a five-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 542.54, a first step in confirming any weakness today. OEX bears now need to see a five-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 542.05, but as I cautioned many times yesterday, any bearish traders need to have a plan in place for how they'll handle tests of the broadening formation's bottom support, if such a test should occur, since that's been a proven bounce point since about September 13. That bottom support is at about 541.30 now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:53:25 AM
Here's the OEX 60-minute chart posted last night, with today's action updated but with the original annotations: Link This shows that the OEX continues to find resistance, so far, at the neckline of that H&S. Note, though, that the right shoulder is itself forming a possible H&S-ish formation with its neckline at the bottom trendline of the broadening formation. This points out the difficulty of trading within that broadening formation and reinforces its importance, although yesterday morning I was beginning to question its relevance. A 60-minute close below the bottom of the broadening formation would be significant, as would a 60-minute close above the top of that formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  9:53:01 AM
VIX.X 14.21 -1.52% .... daily pivot levels as follows..... 13.53, 13.96, Piv = 14.62, 15.05, 15.71.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:52:37 AM
Looks like the Fed split the difference, announcing an overnight repo in the amount of 4B for a net drain of 4.5B.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  9:51:41 AM
The SOX ran through 400 this morning like fear through the French Army

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:50:26 AM
The Fed has 8.5B in overnight repos expiring today. I expect the Fed to either refund the full 8.5B for a net wash, or to take no action whatsoever as has often been the case on rate announcement days. We'll find out which within the next 10 minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:48:05 AM
The OEX is also engaged in continuing consolidation near the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 542.68 and 541.79.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  9:48:01 AM
Red Hat (RHAT) $13.37 -11.3% Link .... session low and moves back below its trying to round higher 21-day SMA.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:47:02 AM
The OEX does begin retreating beneath that Keltner resistance and H&S neckline, as the first retracement of the day begins. Support has now thinned a bit, and no longer looks as firm as resistance on the five-minute chart, but for any weakness at all to begin to be confirmed, we would need to see five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 542.48. That would be the first step. So far, though, that neckline is again holding as resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/21/200,  9:46:43 AM
If you're long SPX from yesterday @ 1222.02 you can safely raise your stop to 1123.02 to cover lunch money. You'll still be far enough away from the action that you can sit back and watch things play out with a free trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:46:21 AM
Silver and gold have both pulled back from their previous highs, but are still holding the bulk of their gains at 410.50 and 6.355 respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:45:04 AM
The TRAN continues to hold within yesterday's range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:43:36 AM
If that mid-channel Keltner resistance and the neckline of the H&S is going to hold the OEX into the first retracement of the day, it had better start doing so soon! That neckline is being tested as I type, as is the Keltner resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:42:52 AM
QQQ is printing a session high here at 35.56. The 30 and 60 min channel resistance lines are holding at 35.65... actually 35.65-.67.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  9:41:27 AM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 210.65 +2.17% Link ... bold move out of the gate and makes a move above its rounding lower 200-day SMA.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:40:45 AM
As I type, the OEX is facing Keltner resistance from 543.10-543.41, with the neckline of that confirmed H&S in about the same region. Bulls want to see it break out above that resistance before the first retracement of the day begins in a few minutes, so that the retracement would bring it back to retest that former resistance. That resistance looks relatively firm on the five-minute chart, but so does support near 542.24, so I'm not sure whether the firm support will pressure it up or the first resistance will pressure it down. My guess now is that the resistance will hold on five-minute closes (but maybe not during the five-minute periods) and the retracement will take the OEX back toward that support to confirm or not-confirm its strength. I don't have enough information from intermarket relationships to judge more than that, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:39:29 AM
NQ and QQQ are back to flat here, QQQ at 35.47. The short cycle upphase is drifting, stalled in its upphase. A break below 35.34 will kick off a new downphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  9:36:49 AM
8x8 Inc. (EGHT) $3.59 +8.76% Link .... challenges bearish resistance trend. Stock higher after announcing it has launched a prepaid service platform to provide organizations with the ability to deliver invound and outbound Voice of Internet broadband telephone services.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:35:47 AM
After avoiding confirming its double-top formation yesterday, the BIX rises this morning, dealing now with the 10-dma and historical resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:34:06 AM
The SOX opens at the neckline I've drawn for my version on the inverse H&S and is climbing from there, but it has not yet climbed above yesterday's high. It's dealing with Keltner resistance and could get entangled in that resistance, although that's not the way it looks as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:32:42 AM
Session low for QQQ at 35.49. Short cycle channel support is 35.40, followed by 30 min cycle channel support at 35.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:32:36 AM
The Dow is attempting a bounce from 10,200 this morning, but it has not yet retraced more than 50% of yesterday's decline, of course.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  9:30:04 AM
It looks as if the OEX may first head up to test the violated neckline of its H&S on the 60-minute chart, with that at about 543.30. Bears want to see that hold as resistance on 60-minute closes. Bulls want the opposite.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  9:29:51 AM
Hang Seng ($HSI.X) 13,304 +0.63% Link .... achieved its point and figure chart's bullish vertical count of 13,300 in Tuesday's trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/21/200,  9:25:47 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $37.89 Link .... higher at $39.15 after announcing the U.S. Army National Guard placed an order for 360 of its stun guns with the order exceeding $440,000 and scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:24:43 AM
Silver is up 1.64% to a session high of 6.375 here, gold back to 411.20, +4.20. Bonds have firmed slightly, with TNX up 2.3 bps here at 4.081%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:19:10 AM
The 30 min cycle for NQ (premarket proxy for QQQ) is taking the first steps of an upphase, but in fact the recent up- and downphases have been aborting early in both directions as the price slides sideways. 30 min channel resistance is currently lined up with the 60 min cycle top at 35.65 QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:02:27 AM
Headline:

9:01am FED BEGINS MEETING; STATEMENT EXPECTED AT 2:15 PM EDT

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  9:01:17 AM
30 min delayed refreshable chart of the US Dollar Index at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  8:31:45 AM
Bonds are continuing lower, with TNX +3.5 to 4.093%. Gold is down to 410.90, while QQQ is up .12 to 35.59 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  8:31:00 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. AUG. HOUSING STARTS UP 0.6% TO 2.0 MLN ANNUAL RATE

8:30am U.S. AUG. BUILDING PERMITS FALL 5.5% TO 1.952 MLN PACE

8:30am U.S. AUG. SINGLE-FAMILY STARTS UP 0.4% TO 1.667 MLN

8:30am U.S. JULY HOUSING STARTS REVISED TO 1.988M VS. 1.978M

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  8:21:15 AM
Gold has just leapfrogged above 408 resistance, up 4.40 to a session high of 411.40. There's old resistance at 412, followed by 414-415 confluence.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/21/200,  8:08:22 AM
Equities are higher, with ES trading 1124.75, NQ 1434.5, YM 10218 and QQQ +.07 at 35.54. Bonds are lower by .09 at 113.125, gold higher by 1.70 at 408.70, silver +.06 at 6.334 and crude oil +.70 at 46.30. We await the 8:30 release of housing starts, est. 1.93M and building permits, est. 1.985M. At 2:15PM, we get the FOMC announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/21/200,  6:56:51 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened more than 50 points into positive territory with tech stocks leading the gains, but the bourse slipped lower until midway through the afternoon session. From then on, it oscillated in a tight range around the flat-line level. It closed down 1.62 points or 0.01%, at 11,080.87.

Semi-related stocks improved, but higher oil prices reportedly pressured non-tech stocks. UFJ Holdings' efforts to reduce bad debt was reportedly behind a decision by the company to seek the help of Japan's IRC to bail out condominium developer and large UFJ borrower Daikyo, a report the developer denied. The developer's stock was suspended from trading for a while and bids were sharply lower, but the denial slightly trimmed those losses. Daikyo still closed lower by 13.2%. UFJ closed higher by 4.5%. UFJ Holdings also received a cash infusion from Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group on Friday.

Most other Asian markets climbed, with tech stocks gaining throughout Asia. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.44%, and South Korea's Kospi inched up 0.03%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.69%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed higher by 0.63%. China's Shanghai Composite was one of the few Asian bourses that declined, however, with the decline at 1%. For the last couple of days, the SSEC has been struggling with the 1,467-1,468-ish range, and it tested that level twice Tuesday before closing at 1,448.562.

Currently, all European bourses are in the green. In the U.K., supermarket chain Tesco reported earnings and beat expectations. Perhaps also boosted by an approving statement by Merrill Lynch, it rose. However, other supermarket chains declined, as did Marks & Spencer, a Tesco competitor in food and clothing. Same-store sales declined at M&S due to disappointing sales in core lines of women's wear, lingerie and children's wear. M&S also mentioned that operating costs had not risen as much as expected, as well as mentioning a planned stock buyback program. Nike has won the right to sponsor new team uniforms for the Glasgow Celtic football club from Umbro, with Umbro shares dropping after the announcement.

In Continental Europe, auto manufacturers and oil majors gain. The upcoming Paris Auto Show and a truck conference in Hanover have boosted the autos, and above-$46/barrel oil has boosted the oil majors. Semi-related stocks tend to perform well. In stock-specific news, Unilever continued its declines. German pharmaceutical company Altana declined after announcing plans to make acquisitions that would help its cancer drug business. Also in company-specific news, JP Morgan upgraded Air France to a neutral rating, and that stock was seeing gains in early trading.

As of 6:55 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 15.80 points or 0.35%, to trade at 4,595.30. The CAC 40 traded higher by 17.66 points or 0.48%, at 3,721.35. The DAX traded higher by 11.09 points or 0.28%, at 3,988.77.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/20/200,  10:38:17 PM
Monday, the OEX continued turning down below the top trendline of the descending regression channel off the year's high: Link It's still within striking distance of an upside breakout, to be confirmed by a move above the 200-sma and the 9/13 high. The chart also shows the importance of the 100-sma's support over the last couple of weeks, showing that a break below that moving average might constitute a change in tenor for the OEX. Going on moving averages alone, a break below the 100-sma might see some vulnerability down to 537-538, although the OEX would have to move through several support layers to get there, and it might be questionable whether it could plummet through them.

Another method shows 536-537 as a possible downside target, and this one comes from Monday's violation of the neckline of a H&S on the 60-minute chart. As I warned yesterday might happen, however, the decline kept finding support on the bottom trendline of the broadening formation: Link Although that support was pierced, the 60-minute candles closed above it, with 541 support proving important. The 100-sma on the daily chart lay at 541.02. Those looking for a downside break of the broadening formation might also watch for a break of the 100-sma on the daily chart.

As I've been warning, though, an OEX break of that trendline could come just ahead of a test of the Russell 2000's and SPX's 200-sma's, with bounce potential from those averages if touched.

These broadening formations are notoriously difficult to trade because it's hard to know when support or resistance has finally been breached. Market conditions are made even more difficult because of indices that appear to be tugging in different directions. The SOX pierced the neckline of a potential inverse H&S, but couldn't close above that neckline or above 400. The BIX came close to confirming a double-top formation on its daily chart, although it avoided doing so. The TRAN has turned down to retest recently established support. Support at 3250 didn't hold, but 3225 has, so far, and the TRAN remains above the late June/early July high.

Trade carefully tomorrow ahead of the FOMC meeting decision and just afterward, too. The tendency lately has been to maneuver markets to important support or important resistance and park them there ahead of these potentially market-moving events, so be aware of that tendency. Also, the first direction after a potentially market-moving event is not always the final reaction.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/20/200,  7:55:34 PM
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