Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  7:23:51 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Traders might want to take a quick look at your 5-minute charts of the QQQ. Note today's repetive support/resistance trades. They were pretty firm weren't they? Shows some determination at those exact levels by a QQQ trader.

Then look at your NDX.X .... a little "sloppy."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  6:17:39 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  5:15:49 PM
My apologies to those that may have been confused by my posts in the market monitor. Since I comment often on NQ, my posts from now on will be in the futures monitor.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  4:49:09 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Closed out yesterday's day trade bearish for Monster Worldwide (MNST) at $22.29 ($0.44, or +1.94%)

Day trade long for Newmont Mining (NEM) at $42.78, was looking find at $43, but reversed and was stopped at $42.59. ($-0.19, or -0.44%).

Swing trade put the Lehman 1-3 year iShares (AMEX:SHY) Dec. $82 puts (SHY-XD) at the offer of $0.65. I'm placing a stop on these should the SHY itself trade $82.30. While I'm looking for a short-term decline, I thought it best to buy some time. December might allow for some type of fourth quarter asset allocation shift away from Treasuries, thus a December expiration might be beneficial. I'm posting the SHY as a benchmark to this trade profile, but I strongly considered profiling an outright short in the SHY, but not sure everyone wants to sell short $41k in a Treasury-type swing trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  4:29:15 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $2.84 +14.5% .... just now seeing this news item Link

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  4:12:20 PM
We are closing NQ right at 1410, which is key support off rising trandline in 60 mn chart from Aug 31 low and just above 200 day ema on NDX. Flip a coin here, but the bounce attempt was weak today and ending right here is not a very pretty picture. I will be holding my NQ short overnight, stop at 1415.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  4:09:24 PM
SPX closes out the day @ 1108.36... if SPX futures are down 2-3 points going into the opening bell (emphasis on "if") I predict a very bad day tomorrow. If they are flat or up we could see a nice bounce off the all-important 1108 neckline. I hate to keep saying this, but... stay tuned.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  4:07:37 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPY 111.01 , QQQ $34.93, DIA $100.42

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  4:05:08 PM
Holding the short from 1112 overnight, stop 1112 and break even. It was very tempting to enter a concurrent long play just before the bell, especially so close to 1108 but the last candle was a fair sized red one and it printed a very tentative MACD bearish kiss. As usual we're left hanging. It always seems to be that way, doesn't it? When are you ever SURE of anything? When you are that's about the time the market does just the opposite of what you are SURE of, he said, dangling a preposition.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  4:01:25 PM
There is a new moving coming out to rebut all the lies in Michael Moores film. The film is called appropriately FarenHype 9/11.

See the trailer here: Link

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  3:56:52 PM
NQ 1410 is a must hold into the close if you are long. If short from 1418, a penetration of this level would be an overnight hold if you're feeling adventurous. Otherwise take your profits.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:56:30 PM
I don't think I'd enter a new bearish OEX position this late in the day, when the OEX tends to overrun targets and bounce potential remains. You're risking missing a gap down tomorrow, but I'd suggest missing it, if necessary.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:56:29 PM
SPX 1108.65... a close below 1108.00 would not be good for bulls as it would violate the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern on the daily chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  3:54:55 PM
QQQ is breaking below 7200-tick SMA support at 35.03 here. At this point, traders will want to follow a break above QQQ 35.15 or below 34.87 on expanding volume- everything here in the middle has been a blender since yesterday at 10:45AM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:54:00 PM
Potential inverse H&S on the OEX? Link We saw several of these partially set up since Tuesday's high and never follow through, so I'm not counting on this to confirm but am assiduously watching this one to help determine whether there's been a temporary shift in balance between the bulls and the bears. Note the bullish divergence as the head was formed. A drop below the head will say the bears remain in control. Note: I'm showing a 7-minute chart because it was easiest to see this formation on this chart, not because it's some new time interval I'm watching closely.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  3:53:50 PM
Here comes QQQ 35 Jonathan...

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:53:39 PM
If you're short this is a good way to end the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  3:51:40 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.35 +0.26% .... I'm thinking this decline that came from 02:00 PM EDT, may be hedge fund, or some type of "hedge-related" action.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  3:50:05 PM
VXN moving back above its 20 day MA of 20.95. A close above this level would be another bearish sign. After an almost 3% haircut in the NDX, it's a miracle it's not higher, which just shows how complacent this market is.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  3:48:55 PM
Correction to 02:58:46 trade alert .... It should read "put alert" for the SHY Dec. $82 Puts (SHYXD) at $0.65 offer.

Before you act, you might contemplate the possibility of the Fed raising rates one more time DURING this election year.

I struggle with this a bit myself, but if Treasuries unwind, it should be the shorter-dated to get the ball rolling.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:47:48 PM
Readers will be lucky to have your imput, too, Marc, on the TRAN as well as on other market conditions. I've heard your praises sung by many of the other writers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:46:36 PM
The OEX tests 534.39-534.75 Keltner support. Those hoping for a bounce want to see 15-minute closes above the Keltner lines that compose that support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  3:45:34 PM
The current pullback from 35.14 is testing the previous low. A print below 35.01 opens the door to a retest of 34.95, below which that rising triangle scenario is off the table. I'm almost at the point of counting pennies here in this narrow range.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:45:04 PM
There's the single candle shorts needed.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:44:25 PM
CCI prints are setup for a long play here... all we need is a bullish MACD cross to confirm. Right now it's trying for a bearish kiss but on the 1-min chart that can change in a single candle.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  3:41:30 PM
The VXO is up nearly 10% here for a .25% drop in the OEX. Given the incredibly narrow range today, it would appear that I'm not the only one getting stressed out over the ambiguous action today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:41:05 PM
OEX 536 is proving difficult, as I suspected it might. Keltner resistance is massing near 536-536.56, and it's going to take a big short-covering surge to get past it. This is a quandary for those wanting a new bearish entry. If the OEX rolls over again, a new bearish entry could be considered at a new low of the day, but perhaps preferably below the 50% retracement of the rally off the August low, so on a move below 533.59. I just consider this to have such strong bounce potential that I would have liked to have seen a bigger bounce and rollover before a new entry, with the preference up to 538-540. An entry on a rollover from here or below today's low is not one I like, but it may be all that's offered. I still think waiting a bit longer has its merits, though.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:39:50 PM
If we can't get below 1110 before the close I'm considering a concurrent long play to hold overnight with the short from 1112.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  3:35:42 PM
Yes Linda, I noticed your posts on the TRAN and they are very valuable. IB symbol I use is DTX (CBOE).

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  3:33:08 PM
Oil is getting very comfortable above 48. Not a good.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:32:31 PM
Marc, I like to watch the TRAN, too, for the very reason that you do. For someone known as an OEX trader, I'm sure some wonder why I'm always talking about the TRAN, but there are days when it's a TRAN movement that leads the markets and some when it's a SOX or BIX movement, but they're all important to watch.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  3:26:42 PM
There was a higher low on the last pullback, with QQQ back to 35.14 again- could it be a rising triangle? The short cycle oscillators are nearly maxxed out in overbought, and it still looks unlikely that we'd see much loft on an upside break.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  3:26:20 PM
Keep an eye on the TRAN. It gives you a less psycho perpsective on oil, which is heavily traded by speculators. The TRAN is trying to hold on to 3180, a key support level earlier this month as well. Conditional sell stop orders tied to the TRAN breaking 3180 is a tool to be considered.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:23:03 PM
Now comes the attempted push from the former OEX 535-535.30-ish support, now pushed a little lower, toward 534.90. (See my 14:33 post.) Those hoping for a bounce for a new bearish entry want to see the OEX push above and show fifteen-minute closes above the Keltner line now at 536.13, but will take continued fifteen-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 535.34. OEX 538.80-539.70 may be the most to be hoped for before a rollover, but am not sure that will be offered. OEX 536-536.60 is going to be tough.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:20:50 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  3:19:35 PM
Global Payments (GPN) $52.747 +12.2% ... little ramp up to the close here. Volume too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  3:18:06 PM
The 30 min cycle channel is drifting back up again, this time with an uptick in the 60 min channel. Bulls are hoping that two cycles can combine to do what one alone could not all day. Combined resistance on these two longer intraday cycles is 35.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  3:17:16 PM
Something's up, or it seems like it is. Just seeing intra-day chart of NEM. See that drop at 02:35-02:40 PM EDT?

I checked my MM post of Fed funds futures and very, very close in time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  3:14:53 PM
Bullish day trade stop alert for Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.59 +0.87% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  3:14:02 PM
03:10 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:05:35 PM
OEX still tests the 535-ish Keltner support. (See my 14:33 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  3:04:55 PM
Here's a bullish 60-min view of QQQ: Link

The 30 min view is substantially the same, except that the upphase is mostly done with little price traction so far. It's the opposition of the 30 and 60 min cycles for much of the morning that can be credited with the chop we've had all day. I'm still bearish below 35.25 QQQ. If that level breaks, however, we'll see the sell signal in the daily cycle begin to undraw itself. Bulls need to get above that level, while bears need to get below 34.87.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:03:04 PM
Lowering stop on short play to 1112.00 and break even.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:02:13 PM
What did I just say? Now a quick reversal to the downside. MACD is touching but has not yet crossed down. C'mon Seabiscuit!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  3:00:42 PM
I agree that today has not been a day to be trading, unless one had carried a bearish position overnight, and even then, the slowing of the descent may have leaked some of your profits away if in options positions. Those in bearish OEX positions should have been following the OEX lower with their stops, with those stops appropriate to your account management style. Those who are in swing trades intended to be carried for a week or two would obviously have wider stops than those intending to stay in only a day or two.

Today has been a day waiting for a bounce to begin (not a one I'd suggested trading, though), to possibly set up the next bearish entry.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  3:00:15 PM
I can barely get these posts typed before they become obsolete. We have a MACD bullish cross on the 1-min chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:58:46 PM
Swing trade Treasury put .... take 5 of the iShare (AMEX:SHY) Dec $82 puts at the offer of $0.65.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:58:20 PM
1-min MACD is trying to turn back up. A bearish kiss would be just what the doctor ordered for a short play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:56:41 PM
Resnapping Fib targets, I note that a 19.1% retracement of the steep decline from Tuesday's OEX high is 536.40; a 38.2% at 538.69, and a 50% at 540.10. Those hoping for a new bearish entry would then hope for a move up to 538.69-540.10 and a rollover from there. A move much above 540 and particularly above 541.51, the 61.8% retracement, says something else is going on and bears should stand aside until they figure it out.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:56:31 PM
NQ support trendline off Aug 31 low on the 60 mn chart has held several times yesterday and today. It sits right around NQ 1410 right now. If long, you do not want to see that broken today again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:52:26 PM
Looks very likely, Marc. The only difference from yesterday to today would be that this time, the 30 minute cycle will be overbought instead of oversold.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:51:21 PM
Mark, don't get me going on the VIX...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:51:00 PM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) up 5.2 basis point to the close at 3.303%. RIGHT back at level when FOMC announced decision on Tuesday.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:50:36 PM
Marc that's the first time you've mentioned oil. After the 10th time we'll revisit the "harping" issue. Now about that VIX/VXO........ keep harping! (grin)

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:49:23 PM
Jonathan, after all this do you think they will close it right at QQQ 35? Just to leave us hanging...

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  2:49:17 PM
I heard a TV commentator yesterday saying this about Kerry:

The democrats could not find a single candidate to satisfy all voters so they decided to take the best parts of Mondale, Dukakis and McGovern and combine them with an unlikable war hero and came up with Kerry. The guy was a democrat that did not like Bush in the past but said based on the current facts he would vote Bush. Tough to win when your own support deserts you.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:48:14 PM
Looking for an OEX pullback toward 535-535.30, although those hoping for a bounce would certainly like to see 15-minute closes above 535.26. (See my 14:33 post for my expectations.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:46:48 PM
Session low for 10-yr bond futures here as we approach the cash close. TNX is up 2.5 bps to 4.014%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:46:09 PM
Volume spikes in the SHY $82.07 -0.10% today. See'm? Last one coincidental with December Fed Funds hitting 98.00.

Analysis here might be that some shorts are moving in, or "smart bulls" looking to take their profits.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:43:28 PM
I hate to harp on oil, but it is what giving us this undecided action. To wake up with a big drop in oil tomorrow will kill a short, a move above 49 again will be the kiss of death of the August equities rally. I suspect big market participants are on the sidelines.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:41:55 PM
Here comes that 10-year yield back to 4.0%.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  2:41:40 PM
The Wall Street Journal claims EBAY is going to shut down Half.com. EBAY has rebounded from yesterday's drop and appears ready to break out of resistance at 90. Be a good spot for a call if the market was not so confused.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:41:27 PM
December Fed Funds futures (ff04z) 98.00 here. 100% chance of additional 25 bp rate hike.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:41:05 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:40:03 PM
I took that short because the last two swing highs showed bearish MACD divergence on the 1-min chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:39:05 PM
OEX hasn't quite made it to the 536.30 range yet, with a high at 536.03. (See my 14:33 post.)

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:37:24 PM
It's beginning to feel like short is going against the trend, not with it, but that's a very short-term snapshot.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:37:20 PM
The short cycles have resolved their prior chop to the upside, but there's little room to run before oversold territory on this short timeframe. Channel resistance remains at 35.20 (30 min) and 35.25 (60 min), and the way things are going today, I'd be surprised to see 35.25 exceeded even on a break above 35.14.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  2:36:20 PM
TZOO Up strongly on a rumor they may be partnering with Google on several products.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:36:18 PM
VIX.X alert 14.71 ... session low and back below WEEKLY R1

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:35:38 PM
One more time... Short @ 1112.00, stop 1113.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:34:34 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,067 -0.42% .... trying to get back above correlative 10,043-10,056. (10-points either side)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:33:33 PM
Looking for a possible OEX move toward 536.30-537, and then a pullback toward 535-535.25 to reestablish that as support before another attempt higher.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:32:33 PM
Stopped out @ 1112.00, -1

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:32:31 PM
QQQ is retestin the high, up to 35.15 here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  2:32:11 PM
The minutes for the August FOMC meeting were released at 2:PM and it appears there is little chance the Fed is going to pause its hikes any time soon. The Fed believes the economic weakness is short lived and they mentioned that "significant cumulative" tightening will be necessary to meet the Fed's policy goals.

Text of minutes: Link

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:31:49 PM
Oil futures just closed. This could provide a lift.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:30:48 PM
SOX.X 396.29 +1.16% ... couldn't quite get a test of correlative 398.00 (DAILY R1 / WEEKLY R1)

Gainers are BRCM $29.08 +3.01%, TER $14.05 +2.62%, XLNX $29.18 +2.49%.... STM $17.84 -0.39% and AMD $12.95 -0.23%

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:29:33 PM
No traction... fiddlesticks. Still, it was a confirmed sell signal, albeit on the 1-min chart, and after the big gains over the last few days with the short I'm willing to be a little more adventurous. SPX 1108, the neckline of the inverse H&S on the SPX daily chart proved to be an important level. In hindsight it seems obvious but when SPX was approaching 1108 with TRIN @ 1.77 a long play seemed too risky.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:27:39 PM
Ten year bonds are back to negative territory, with TNX +1.6 bps to 4.005% here.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:27:24 PM
Equity pc ratio at .62, right back where it was in the euphoria of two days ago. Complacent buying, or smart money? Time will tell.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:26:00 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $39.20 +1.24% .... volume really picked up at 01:30 PM

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:19:50 PM
Short @ 1111.00, stop 1112.00

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:18:57 PM
Volume spiked up on the retest of 35.14, with a print as high as 35.148. But resistance held again, and a failure on a high volume test is bearish, particularly given that the 30 min cycle has expended most of its energy over the past 5 hours. Bulls are running out of time and making no progress so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:16:55 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:16:17 PM
Oil back up close to 49. A short here is high odds.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:15:15 PM
NQ retraces off 1447 high and 1407 low are as follows: 23.6% 1416.50 38.2%: 1422 50%: 1427

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:13:39 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,111.86 , QQQ $35.12

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:13:10 PM
The OEX needs a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 535.21 to even begin to look better.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:12:01 PM
Looks as if that 50% retracement of the OEX rally off the August low might have some validity as a bounce point, but the bounce is also due to other support on other indices. The OEX isn't doing this alone, and it can't continue to do so. Right now, support looks far stronger than resistance on the five-minute Keltner chart, suggesting that it will be easier for the OEX to climb than to decline very far over the short-term, but resistance may still look stronger on the 15-minute chart. Mid-channel resistance has dropped to 536.87 on the five-minute chart, 540.07 on the fifteen-minute one.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:11:18 PM
Session high for NQ here at 1418, with QQQ back above 35.10. Session high is 35.14.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:11:13 PM
Approaching NQ Pivot at 1418. With oil back to ascent mode, this will be a tough one.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:10:28 PM
SOX.X 396.45 +1.2% ... busting a little move to session high here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  2:09:04 PM
Marc had been such an active contributor behind the scenes I talked him into joining us. For the readers who may have seen Marc's comments repeated by the different writers you will now get them first hand. Marc likes to follow and trade the NDX using the NQ futures. He had yesterday's highs and lows pegged almost exactly.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:08:56 PM
Stopped out @ 1110.50 and break even... Dang!

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:08:20 PM
That was some spike just now. I noted earlier the TRIN dropping... just hope this isn't the big boys getting ready to stop us out of our short, but it looks like that's what is going to happen.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:07:36 PM
There is a massive confluence of key moving averages on the NDX right below, two of which have been tested: 200 day ema at 1403.85, 20 day ema at 1403.19 and the 50 day ema at 1398.47. These are must hold levels for the entire market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:07:24 PM
Nearest OEX resistance at 535.08-535.25. Nearest support looks stronger than that resistance, but you've heard that before over the last couple of days.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:05:36 PM
Marc... heard any good VIX/VXO jokes lately? Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  2:05:01 PM
The 30 min cycle upphase continues to go nowhere, but dialing up to the 60 min, I see buy signals printing around noon on the NQ futures. If the 60 min cycle is dominant, then we should see the QQQ beginning to perk up. 2 things: the daily cycle is on a preliminary sell signal from a bearish divergence, and so any intraday bounce should be relatively weak/corrective. Also, regardless of which cycle we follow, the price has to participate- if QQQ can't get above 35.14, and, more importantly, 35.20-.25, then the bulls are going to have a problem when this intraday bounce comes to an end.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  2:02:49 PM
Here's why I've been expected a slowing of the OEX declines somewhere through here, with a 50% retracement of the rally off the August low approaching quickly: Link Those in bearish OEX positions might consider profit-protecting plans now, if they haven't already.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  2:01:35 PM
Hey Marc... Welcome! We now have 4 Mark(c)s on board. There must be a message in there somewhere.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  2:01:18 PM
My pleasure and honor to be amongst such illustrious company!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  2:00:11 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $43.02 +1.91% ... moves to session and weekly high.

DAILY R2 at $43.11, the WEEKLY R1 at $43.41.

$HUI.X 217.17 +1.84% has been bumping against its DAILY R2 of 217.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  1:59:23 PM
Welcome Marc- now we can chat "live" instead of by email.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  1:58:30 PM
SPX just printed one of those classic looking sell signals @ 1109... now we wait to see if it's the real thing. When using the 1-min chart for buy/sell signals you always have to take them in the proper context (as in discounted because of the short timeframe).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:58:12 PM
Welcome, Marc. All the rest of us non-J's (James, Jane, Jeff, Jim, Jonathan, in alphabetical order) are glad to have another member of our group.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/23/200,  1:58:03 PM
Heh Marc - welcome aboard.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  1:56:17 PM
QQQ failed at the descending resistance line just posted and is coming in for a retest of 34.95 support. I expect that the next 30 min cycle downphase will break the session lows, given the weakness of the current bounce.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   9/23/200,  1:56:04 PM
Hi, everyone. I'll be joining in for the fun once in awhile. My first comment will be an obvious one: Nov crude (QM) is not getting rejected at 49 with much conviction. This setting up differently than the last time we hit this level. Careful with longs out there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:55:27 PM
Mothing much happening during the usual stop-running time of day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  1:50:01 PM
CCI readings are setup perfectly for a sell signal... all we need is for MACD to cross back down.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  1:49:04 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  1:48:16 PM
QQQ 2-day chart at this Link . The 30 min cycle channel is still pointed uncertainly south.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  1:47:23 PM
I'd really like to see SPX roll over below the last swing high around 1109.80. TRIN is still bearish @ 1.41 but has come down from 1.70-1.80.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  1:47:17 PM
TASR is edging higher on a volume spike after news got out that the company just pitched their product to the San Francisco police. At least once chief had positive things to say about the demonstration.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:45:40 PM
CSCO, too, is this week sinking beneath its 200-week sma, with that average at $19.26 and with CSCO currently at $19.00. These 200-week sma's appear to have been important for these market generals, GE, MER, and CSCO. Some remain within striking distance of retests of these averages.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:43:04 PM
Merrill Lynch also sinks below its 200-week sma at $50.66, although only minimally so and it's holding above $50.00. So far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:40:19 PM
Monday and Tuesday, I noted that GE was testing its 200-week moving average. That MA proved to be resistance too tough to get through.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  1:39:04 PM
B-bands are getting pinched pretty tight here. Hopefully that will result in a break to the downside. We're sitting on the lower b-band right now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:37:59 PM
Early this morning, CNBC guest and CIO David Kotok of Cumberland Investors discussed corporate profits, displaying a chart titled, "Have Corporate Profit Margins Peaked?" Research suggests that corporate profits tend to top out at 8% and bottom out at 4%, he said, and that they're at that 8% level again, suggesting that it's unlikely that they'll be able to climb much higher. The last time was in 1995, the chart noted. Getting out of the equity markets then would have missed the whole bubble, he concluded, but also the downdraft. Obviously, this is not a great market-timing tool, but still offers us something to consider. He still suggested, however, that post-election, equities were the place to be over the short-term as he expects another quick and drastic correction in bond prices. I'm not familiar with David Kotok and so can't offer any information about his track record, but thought the information interesting.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  1:36:35 PM
Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  1:36:28 PM
The rally in PIXR could be fading just a bit.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  1:34:01 PM
Here's a similar reversal in shares of TUG.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  1:33:14 PM
It's not a stock I would trade but ASR is seeing a dramatic reversal today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  1:32:07 PM
MACD just crossed down... a good sign, but it's coming right at Linda's stop running push timeframe. I'll be watching 1108 closely (if we get there) for a potential long play, possibly concurrent with the existing short.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  1:30:03 PM
Dow-component and insurance giant AIG is seeing some follow through on yesterday's breakdown under the $70.00 mark. Today AIG is down more than 1% and cracking its exponential 200-dma. Shares looked headed toward support near $66.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  1:28:07 PM
We need to start rolling over here pretty quick or the short play will be in danger of getting stopped out @ 1110.50. CCI printed +280 on that last +1 pt spike... MACD has flattened out but has not yet crossed down.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  1:22:19 PM
The US Dollar Index (30 min delayed refreshable chart at this Link ) remains weak, which lines up with the strength in gold, silver, then miners and foreign currencies. CDN dollars ar up .62% to .7824, testing the previous weekly high, and euros are up .51% to 1.2315.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  1:18:03 PM
The bounce in WFMI is starting to fade and shares have broken down through their simple 100-dma. However, I would keep an eye on support at the $80.00 mark and watch to see if this level holds.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  1:17:01 PM
It's interesting that CME didn't see any profit taking during yesterday's market sell-off. The stock remains near all-time highs above the $150 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:13:40 PM
The last OEX move down, while I was answering reader email, constituted another Keltner breakout (to the downside). The support that was trying to firm has now come resistance, at 534.62-535. The longer this continues, the bigger the chance that when the bounce begins, the bounce will take the OEX all the way up to the mid-channel level on the Keltner channels, with that level now at 539.92 but still descending. There's been no bounce yet, though, and bulls weren't able to muster any follow-through after the minimal confirmation of the double-bottom formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  1:08:59 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  1:08:02 PM
A retest of 34.90 spiked to the 34.88 level, but support held with QQQ now up tio 34.96 and testing former support. The action in this narrow range has the short cycle oscillators looking increasingly scrambled within their downtrend. Volume is picking up on the bounce from former support. 35.01 is next intraday fibonacci resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  1:03:22 PM
Reader Question: [M]y bias is that the market is in a downtrend, possibly to an OEX of 515. When does a bear spread become a better strategy than establishing a put, lets say at the 530 level?

Response: There's much to consider when answering this reader's email and addressing this subject for the general readership, so if you know all about various considerations when establishing spreads, just pass up this post.

First, for the benefit of those who are new to options trading, I suggest that you read Options as a Strategic Investment by McMillan (available in our library) for a comprehensive review of the benefits and risks of establishing a bear spread. Basically, two types of bear spreads exist: a bear call spread and a bear put spread. A bear call spread is a credit spread: you take in money when you establish this type of spread by buying a higher strike call and selling a lower strike call. For example, I could have established a bear call (credit) spread Tuesday afternoon by buying an OEX 545 call and selling a 540 call. I'd have taken in more money for the 540 call than the 545 one would cost me. The maximum I could have benefited would have been the initial credit received, minus commissions. The bear put spread is a debit spread. Tuesday afternoon, I could have established one of these by buying an OEX 545 put and selling a 540 put. I would have taken in less money for the 540 put than I would have had to pay for the 545 put. The reward is limited here, too, though. If the OEX expired below 540, my 545 put would have been worth $5.00 more than the 540 contract, but I would have had to subtract the original debit amount and the commissions from that $5.00.

Both are going to require margin. Both profit when the OEX declines, too, as is suggested by the "bear" in the name. Both limit the risk the trader assumes as well as limiting the profit. I think both would have been a possible tactic to consider Tuesday by those who wanted minimize risk, but I'm not sure about the wisdom of establishing a new bear spread at 530, a level that might be a potential strong bounce point for the OEX. I'd like to see how the OEX acted as it approached 530 before considering such a tactic. My preference for establishing a bear spread would be as close to 540-541 as possible, hopefully after a bounce from either the now-current level or perhaps from 533-534 or maybe even from the 530-531 level, although once that level was reached, I'm not sure that the bounce would take the OEX anywhere near 540.

If the OEX is trending and declining, a bear spread is not going to be as profitable as a put position, as any spread is about limiting risk and thereby also limiting profit. There are some special considerations in a low-volatility-index environment, too, that are much too detailed for me to go into in any depth here. Since calculating profit in spreads you intend to exit before expiration can be difficult to predict because of these many factors, whether to choose a spread or a put can depend on a trader's risk outlook as well as many other factors. I like spreads, and combination plays are about the only thing I trust in a sideways market, but market gurus will tell you they're not the best vehicle to use in a trending one, so your judgment must include whether you expect that an intermediate downtrend has begun or not. So, I think the best timing at which it would be better to establish a spread versus owning a put would have to include a discussion of when we expected the downtrend to stop and a sideways market to resume. I'm not so sure about that timing, as I think we could be in for an intermediate-term decline that's interrupted by several days of consolidation or bounces along the way. (Sure wish one of them was right here!)

Although it wasn't clear from the question, I'm wondering if the reader already owned a directional put position on the OEX, and was thinking about selling a put against that owned put near 530 in order to lock in profits. Although this can be a viable tactic, it's going to require considerable margin, and doesn't rank particularly well among a listing of other possible tactics for locking in profit. McMillan considers it the worst of those possible tactics unless one believes that the OEX is just going to sit at that sold strike level through expiration, in which it performs well. Mark's tactic of bracketing a profitable bearish play with a purchased long position at a possible bounce point might be a better tactic to limit risk and lock in profit.

In summary, my consideration as to when the best time to establish a bear spread or any spread might concern itself as much with when I thought the trend (down for now) would stop as well as various levels at which to establish it. I'm not so sure it's going to stop now, although I do still keep expecting that bounce that has not yet come. I've been waiting for 533-534 to be hit all day, wondering if it will come from that level.

Mark, or anyone else on the board, feel free to chime in with your own opinion on this subject, too. Because of my already-admitted proclivities to overtrade combination positions unless I establish them as a unit (which most brokers will do for spreads these days), I don't often leg into positions. I prefer to find a sideways market and bracket it with spreads established as a single unit. I don't worry as much about volatility issues as I probably should, but I like spreads as a worry-free vehicle in a sideways market, not a risk-minimizing one in a trending market.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  12:58:29 PM
Is it too early to start thinking about "Three Black Crows"? We're working on #2 and the SPX daily MACD has crossed down. Remember also that SPX 1108 is the neckline of the confirmed inverse H&S on the daily chart so it could be a bounce point. If we violate 1108 to the downside the inverse H&S will be invalidated and with TRIN printing 1.77 that is a distinct possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:58:15 PM
12:52 Market Watch at this Link

I think Jame's earlier posts and Fannie Mae's (NYSE:FNM) $67.27 -4.83% problems weigh on the banks. Especially those with mortgage lending business.

Create's some near-term uncertainty, and with substantial gains in recent months, most likely steps up profit taking.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  12:56:58 PM
The 30 min proxy channel for QQQ is rolling over here, with resistance at 35.20 and support 34.82 currently. The short cycles are pointed south, and I'm expecting a retest of the session low from this move (just 5 cents left to go). If it doesn't bounce soon, that test should break through to new lows- 34.75-.80 is next significant confluence.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  12:52:25 PM
Stopped out of the long @ 1109.50, -1
We're now short from 1110.50, lower stop to 1110.50 and break even
Current print... SPX = 1108.62
TRIN = 1.70

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  12:52:24 PM
Session high for Nymex crude oil here, +.5 to 48.85, a +.93% move for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:50:22 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $30.50 -0.42% .... session lows. WEEKLY S1 $30.70 has been serving up some resistance. WEEKLY S1 at $29.98.

There's been some activity in the Oct. $30 puts last couple of sessions, but I can't figure out if it is a buyer or seller. I'm thinking seller.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:48:51 PM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $22.03 -2.04% .... shoot

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  12:48:24 PM
Session low for YM futures here. QQQ is trading 34.93, setting up for a test of the first higher low of the day at 34.90.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:43:43 PM
bidder up in the Pacholder High Yield (PHF $9.66 +1.47% .... WEEKLY R2 at $9.68.

One indicator I think also suggests short-covering big part of Treasury's lower yield.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  12:42:48 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  12:38:00 PM
Triple bottom or a new leg down on the OEX? We'll see soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:37:22 PM
VIX.X 14.89 +1.01% ... updated 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

Has been finding support all morning at WEEKLY R1 and a little kick higher last hour.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  12:37:13 PM
Session high for silver at 6.49 here, with gold bouncing along above 412, currently back up to 413. QQQ is still holding onto a 7 cent gain while the Dow and SPX futures are negative. The 30 min cycle upphase is still intact on the 30 min oscillators, while the proxy channel has rolled over again. A break below 34.98 will target 34.90 support, and below 34.87, the 30 min oscillator upphase should reverse.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:35:46 PM
No, joke. I wouln't be surprised to see it out this Christmas but there weren't many details available.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/23/200,  12:32:39 PM
James are you joking? Donald Trump, the Fragence.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:30:39 PM
Trump cashes in on his name again

Estee Lauder (EL)'s fragrance unit is announcing that it has signed a multi-year deal with Donald Trump for a new men's fragrance called "Donald Trump, The Fragrance".

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  12:26:25 PM
I know I said I was done for the day but I feel there is a possibility of a break one way or the other here. I'm entering concurrent long and short plays here with a 1 point stop.
Long @ 1110.50, stop 1109.50
Short @ 1110.50, stop 1111.50
For those of you using options I would suggest SPTJC (SPX Oct 1115 call) and SPTVT (SPX Oct 1100 put)
The thinking on this play is that if we move past either stop there may be some momentum behind the move. If one of the stops is hit you will be +1 point on the winner and -1 point on the loser and only be out the commissions for the stopped out trade. The danger of course is being whipsawed out both ways.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:24:40 PM
Fannie Mae (FNM) continues to plummet after yesterday's big breakdown. The stock is off another 4.3% to $67.60. Two new broker downgrades are adding more fuel to the fire here. The stock does have some support at $66 that could be a staging ground for an oversold bounce but it has stronger support at $60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:22:28 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.26 -0.28% .... off morning lows, but has been finding some resistance at WEEKLY S1 of 88.32.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:21:21 PM
Swedish appliance maker AB Electrolux (ELUX) is down 6.8% and gapping under its simple 40 and 50-dma's after issuing a profit warning this morning. The company said rising steel prices will negatively impact earnings.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:20:42 PM
Bema Gold $2.72 +9.67% ... on fire since the open. I took a day trade profit at $2.70, but think time to rotate to NEM.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:17:26 PM
Fedex (FDX) is down again following yesterday's earnings news as both Lehman Brothers and Baird downgrade the stock. FDX gapped under round-number support at $85 and its simple 20-dma this morning and is trading down 1.27%.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:13:39 PM
Freddie Mac (FRE) is saying that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are down to 5.70% from 5.75% last week.

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:12:20 PM
Noticing that EBAY is trying to reverse yesterday's breakdown below the $90.00 mark. Shares are up 1.3% to $89.94.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  12:12:14 PM
QQQ bounced from gently rising 7200-tick SMA support at 34.98. That's a higher low, technically speaking, but within a very narrow range. The bullish scenario is still in play, but I'm struck by the fact that I'm still writing about the "bullish scenario" after 3hrs+ of 30 min cycle upphase, and price is less than 20 cents higher off the session lows during that time. The 30 min cycle upphase continues to feel very corrective.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:11:47 PM
Bullish day trade long alert .... for Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.78 here, stop $42.59, target $43.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  12:08:40 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/23/200,  12:06:49 PM
Martha Stewart Living (MSO) is up another 15.9% to $17.38 and continuing its steep rally this week after announcing last night that the company had signed a deal with Mark Burnett, the reality TV titan who produces "Survivor" and "The Apprentice".

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  11:57:43 AM
So far, Keltner support still holds, but the OEX still has to get through the Keltner resistance that has been stopping it each time it tries to rise, with that resistance currently at 536.25-536.27. This is a higher level of resistance than that holding the OEX back all day yesterday. That line that proved so problematic all day yesterday and in earliest trading today has been serving as support over the last hour.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  11:54:47 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 354.23 -1.11% .... NTRS $41.44 -1.47%, MEL $28.00 -1.33%, FITB $48.80 -1.13%, SOTR $40.87 -1.04%, KEY $30.97 -1.02%

BK $30.26 +0.43% and ASO $24.46 +0.28%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  11:51:17 AM
Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $63.47 +8.96% Link ... on fire of late.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  11:49:48 AM
Nymex crude -.30 to 48.05 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  11:48:01 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  11:46:33 AM
As suggested in my 11:39 post, the OEX is retesting the Keltner support. The double-bottom needs to hold if there's to be hope of a bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  11:44:09 AM
QQQ has flatlined here at 35.05, with the short cycle upphase stalled on the light volume. Once again, 35.14 held back the advance, but the pattern of higher lows could be setting up a rising triangle projecting into the mid 35.20's. A break below 34.95 will invalidate that bullish scenario and set up a test of 34.90, the previous low.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  11:43:44 AM
Stopped out @ 1111.02 and break even. I'm done for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  11:39:41 AM
It's not looking great for the chances of a bounce that the OEX can't make much headway after hitting the double-bottom level. Keltners suggest that nearest support is slightly strong than nearest resistance, but not so strong that it won't require testing again first. That support is from 535.38-535.75. The double-bottom level needs to hold, of course.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  11:28:42 AM
QQQ failed at 35.14 and is trying to put in a higher wavelet low. The upward drift today is pretty minor price-wise, and cycle-wise it appears to be a consolidation following yesterday's clothesline drop. That is, the extremely oversold intraday cycles are working off their oversold extreme. Bulls need to build that oversold pressure into more substantial gains to avoid another clothesline drop when the current 30 min cycle turns from up back to down. 35.14 remains the immediate overhead resistance to beat.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  11:25:11 AM
B-bands are rapidly converging on SPX 1111.50. We could see a sudden move either way here pretty soon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  11:15:58 AM
The OEX is trying to firm and bounce. The trouble with any countertrend bounce, however, is that you don't know when it might break down. We can hope for a 38.1-50% retracement of the decline that preceded it, but so does everyone else watching fretfully for a new bearish entry. They can jump in ahead of desired levels, particularly when those levels are lining up with historical support/resistance or some trendline, as the 540-541 level does now. We may not get the desired bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  11:11:30 AM
Bonds have reversed their previous gains, with TNX now flat at 3.989%. ZN4Z futures are up .015 at 113.6094.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  11:07:01 AM
Raising stop on long position to 1111.02 and break even. Just not willing to risk another failure.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  11:06:26 AM
The OEX has confirmed its double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart, but slips beneath the confirmation level again. Those hoping for a continued bounce want to see five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 536.07 or at least above the one now at 535.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  11:05:36 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  11:05:10 AM
The NDX bounces from its 240-minute 100/130-ema's and is now challenging the daily versions, at 1411.58 and 1409.24, respectively. The NDX is at 1410.89 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  11:01:05 AM
QQQ is bouncing from a higher low on a spike to 34.90, which confirms the short cycle strength we're seeing. That successful retest has QQQ challenging the highs with more gas in the tank. A break above 35.14 targets 35.20-.22, the level of rising 30 and 60 min channel resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  10:58:27 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $38.07 -1.6% Link ..... sitting on what should be some near-term support (broken downward trend). Earnings not until Oct. 19 with consensus at $0.14 per share vs. $0.04 a year ago.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:56:33 AM
Session high for silver here at 6.475. Gold is back to 412.90. A bounce from or above 412 would be very bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  10:55:35 AM
NDX also balances near the daily and 240-minute 100/130-ema's, just below the daily versions and just above the 240-minute ones.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  10:54:56 AM
SPX has just printed one of those classic looking buy signals. If it doesn't abort quickly it may be the real thing
Long @ 1111.02, stop 1109.02

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  10:54:38 AM
SPX still trying to bounce from the 100/130-ema's on the daily and 240-minute charts. Those hoping for a new bearish entry need a little help here from the SPX!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  10:53:41 AM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.16 +2.38% Link .... December Palladium futures $216.75 +3.36% today where trade at $216 generates a reversing higher point and figure buy signal.

Copper has been on fire of late and Palladium may have some catching up.

Better hurry as October expiration nears.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  10:45:23 AM
Stopped out @ 1110.14 and break even

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  10:43:48 AM
Global Payments (GPN) 52.33 +11.34% .... jumps after last night's quarterly earnings had the company handily beating Wall Street's estimates. Company reported bottom line of $0.62 per share versus the $0.51 consensus estimate.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:39:09 AM
QQQ failed to make it to 35.14, and a wavelet cycle downphase is kicking off on the pullback. Bulls are still looking for a higher low within the 30 min cycle upphase. It will take a move below 34.87 to reverse the 30 min cycle upphase from here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  10:38:38 AM
Congratulations, Mark, on that 14-point SPX gain on the short position!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  10:37:21 AM
The OEX is now showing several five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 536.09, with that line formerly pressuring the OEX lower since early yesterday morning. The OEX faces nearest Keltner resistance at 536.75-536.90, however, and is forming a tight one-minute-chart triangle just below that Keltner resistance, prior to a breakout one direction or the other.

Those in short-term bearish plays carried over from yesterday should be considering stops appropriate for their trading styles. Those hoping for new bearish plays should hope for a bounce up to 540-541. There's nothing to do at this point but wait to see if that's offered. I don't see this as a good point for a bullish entry.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:31:14 AM
Nymex crude is back above 48, currently -.125 at 48.225. There was a story about the DoE considering tapping into the strategic petroleum reserves to support the Gulf refiners hit by Hurricane Ivan earlier that coincided with the dip in price.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  10:27:07 AM
There was a heck of a battle for about 10 minutes after the LEI was released. It appears the bulls have grabbed the ball for now.
Exiting short position here @ 1112.26, +14
Still long from 1110.14, stop 1110.14 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  10:23:55 AM
First five-minute OEX close over the Keltner line currently at 536.19, a first change in trend, but not definitive proof of a bounce yet. Next should come a new five-minute high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:21:12 AM
QQQ is still working toward 35.14 resistance. A short cycle upphase is now in progress after hours of false starts, and I'm guessing that this confluence zone will break on the current surge. Next resistance is at 35.18-.20, also the site of 30 and 60 min channel resistance, and bulls should have a tougher time with that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  10:18:05 AM
Two sets of 100/130-ema's (blue/maroon) that may be coming to play on the SPX, the first a daily chart and the second a 240-minute one: Link Link I'm watching the SPX in addition to the OEX because I know the OEX is within a potential bounce zone and the SPX has such market-moving capabilities.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:16:55 AM
QQQ has just broken to a new high at 35.08, retracing all the losses since 2PM yesterday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:15:14 AM
Gold is adding to its gains, now above 412 resistance to 413.40. The session high was 413.90, just below 414-415 ressitance. HUI is up 2.12% to 217.76, XAU +1.52% to 97.27. Silver is holding its gains, and both silver and gold are now up 1.13%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:13:43 AM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 47.725.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  10:13:24 AM
Long @ 1110.14

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:13:22 AM
Feel better, Jim.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  10:05:35 AM
VIX.X 14.96 +1.49% .... Daily Pivot levels as follows .... 13.75, 14.25, Piv = 14.52 , 15.02, 15.29.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  10:04:58 AM
LEI -.3% vs. -.2% expected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  10:03:42 AM
10:01 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  10:02:51 AM
Interesting calendar of events for CMRC

Sept-7th CMRC granted stock options for 20,000 shares to employees in a press release touting their "leading" position in the SRM market place.

Sept 14th CMRC announced they hired a new CFO, Peter Seidenberg, and granted him stock options for 400,000 shares that will begin vesting after six months of employment. The press release claimed CMRC was at the forefront of delivering advanced technologies that help global businesses collaborate with their partners, customers and suppliers over the Internet.

Sept 23rd CMRC files an 8K claiming that expenses significantly exceed cash flow and they are going to wind down operations and may file bankruptcy. Debts exceed expected income from sale of assets and we do not expect any amounts to be paid to shareholders.

Welcome to your new job Mr. Seidenberg. I suggest you keep that resume in circulation and not count on those stock options being good for anything other than wall paper.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  10:01:44 AM
For those in short-term bearish positions on the OEX, the OEX is so far still showing five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 536.52. To even begin to show a change in trend, five-minute closes above that Keltner line would be a first step. Follow the OEX lower with your stops.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  10:01:37 AM
SPX is trying to print another buy signal (not quite there yet) but that TRIN is looking very bearish. The potential buy signal turned into the dreaded MACD bearish kiss while I typed this. If MACD doesn't turn back up immediately we could slip off the edge. I can't type fast enough... MACD came back up and touched but then turned back down... bearish kiss. This could be the one that starts the afterburners to the downside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  9:59:59 AM
The Fed has announced a 5.75B overnight repo which, when added to the 10B announced earlier, leaves us with a net 2.25B net add for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:56:15 AM
The 50% retracement of the OEX rally off the August 13 low is near 533.75, one reason that I thought we might see follow-through to 533-534 and a potential bounce from there, and one reason I just didn't see a good opportunity for a new bearish entry at this morning's open. The 50% retracement of any rally can be strong support on the first test at least.

The SPX has not retraced even 38.2% of that rally, with that retracement at about 1104.50. Also note that the 240-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that have some resonance for the SPX, are at 1109.31-1109.43.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  9:56:07 AM
QQQ bounced from the overnight low of 34.87. There's an amazing lack of strength considering that the 30 min cycle is in an upphase. If QQQ can't get some price traction to the upside, the next 30 min downphase could be a doozy. Bonds are very strong again, with TNX down 2.6 bps to 3.963%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:51:21 AM
The Russell 2000 approaches 564-565 support zone.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  9:50:29 AM
Dow holding at 10075 support

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:49:07 AM
TRAN still dropping.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  9:49:05 AM
Shutting down computer for a few minutes, but will return within the hour.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  9:46:37 AM
Bailing on the long... -1 pt

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:46:27 AM
If you held over a bearish OEX position from last night, should you close it out now that the OEX has entered that 535-537 potential support zone? Maybe not yet as at least some charts showed the possibility of a decline toward 533-534, although I'd certainly be keeping a close stop. The OEX is still maintaining breakout status, still showing five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 536.77. If you have a short-term horizon, intending to hold this position no more than a couple of days, though, I'd be carefully watching for a sign of a potential reversal. Those with a longer-term horizon (and perhaps not front-month options) might not want to jump in and out so quickly and so might have wider stops. Sorry, but I just don't think this is a good place for a new bearish entry for an option position on the OEX. I could be wrong, as I ultimately wouldn't be surprised to see 530-531, but I just don't yet see good risk/reward parameters here in this support zone. I said that yesterday at 540-541, though, so . . .

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  9:44:13 AM
SPX has just printed a buy signal @ 1112.61... concurrent long play going again.
With TRIN rising the signal could easily abort

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  9:40:48 AM
Bearish day trade close out alert .... for Monster Worldwide (MNST) $22.29 offer here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:40:21 AM
SOX still struggling with its combined 10- and 50-dma's.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  9:38:59 AM
Long play closed out @ break even
Short play still active from 1226.29

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:36:23 AM
$TRIN is dropping. So is the OEX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  9:36:12 AM
QQQ is up another 1.56% here to 19.52. VXO +8.73% to 14.57.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/23/200,  9:36:06 AM
Here's a rerun of something I posted late yesterday for those of you who might have already turned your MM off...

This SPX daily chart may be a little confusing but I wanted to revisit the two previous "b" distribution patterns again and compare them to the present one. Take a look at the striking similarities in the bounces off the bottom of the bulb and then the shallow retracements, followed by further upside before finally rolling over again. Even the positions of the various oscillators are very similar. Link
I only highlight the similarities because they suggest we may not necessarily head straight down from here, especially since we are at quote "critical" support. I see two distinct possibilities... either we begin a bounce tomorrow or we drop a little further before bouncing. I won't try to project any further out than that but would note the confirmed inverse H&S on the SPX daily chart has an upside target of 1159 and will not be invalidated until SPX drops below 1108. Note also that the two previous "b" distribution patterns occurred above the 200sma while the last one occurred from below.
Here's another look at the "b" distribution patterns from a fibonacci perspective. Link
All things considered I would regard the SPX 1100 area to be a very important line in the sand. Much below 1094 and I'd have to say the party's over for now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:36:00 AM
Through June, July, and August, the BIX produced a broadening formation at the top of its climb. These are usually bearish, but the BIX broke above the formation instead Now it's breaking back inside the formation this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:34:38 AM
The TRAN heads lower, just inching below yesterday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:34:05 AM
During the first few minutes of trading, the OEX has traded within the last five-minute bar produced yesterday. Trying to steady here, but it's still too early to tell if that effort is going to be successful. Hope so.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  9:32:14 AM
A 30 min cycle upphase kicked off for NQ (premarket QQQ proxy), but the daily cycle gave us the expected bearish cross from overbought. I expect any intraday upphase to be corrective within this daily cycle downphase- bounces should fail from lower price and oscillator highs on the 30 and 60 min timeframes. QQQ needs to break above 35.14 to avoid what I'm guessing could be a washout below yesterday's lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:26:39 AM
You'll find my take on the OEX in yesterday's 4:46 post. What I'd like to see happen is a bounce up to 540-541, but everyone will be looking at those levels as possible resistance, and so I'm not sure the OEX will get that high. If the OEX should follow through on yesterday's declines at the open, I would hope that it would steady somewhere in the 535-536 range to begin that climb into resistance. It's possible that it could decline as low as 533-534, however. We have to see what the open gives us, but an immediate bounce or bounce after only a small follow-through, up near 540, and a rollover from there is the hoped-for outcome. Yesterday's 4:46 post offered other conditions. If a bounce occurs, I don't think it's a suitable long OEX options trade for anyone except for adept scalpers who don't need my advice anyway. On a bounce, volatility indices may decline again and you may find the price of your calls not keeping up with any bounce, particularly if those calls are bought near the open.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  9:18:13 AM
Gold is up 3.40 to 412.20 now, current high 412.90. Silver is up .072, a 1.13% move, to 6.446. Note that silver never got below 6.0, and the current bounce constitutes a higher low.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  9:15:44 AM
Dow Jones reporting earnings for A.G. Edwards that would be a 3 cent miss. The formal announcement has not been made yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  9:09:36 AM
The fed has 13.5B in various repos expiring today. A 10B 14-day repo has been announced, leaving 3.5B unaccounted for. We await the 10AM announcement with respect thereto.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  8:57:08 AM
Session high for gold here at 411.70, +2.90. 412 resistance is being tested again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  8:33:20 AM
Equities are slightly lower, with QQQ down .03 to 34.92 currently. Gold is up 1.90 to 410.70 here, and bonds have risen, with TNX currently down .3 bps to 3.986%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  8:32:10 AM
Headlines:

8:29am U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 14,000 TO 350,000

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. INITIAL CLAIMS UP 2,000 TO 341,000

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 5,000 TO 2.88MLN

8:30am RISE IN U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS 'MOSTLY' DUE TO HURRICANE

I note that with respect to this last headline, several weeks ago we saw a downward spike in weekly initial claims also attributed to the hurricanes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/23/200,  7:55:19 AM
Equities are trading both sides of unchanged, with ES at 1113.25, NQ 1410, YM 10088 and QQQ down .001 at 34.949. Gold is up 1.10 at 409.90, silver +.056 at 6.43, crude oil up .10 at 48.45 and ten year bonds -.046 at 113.5469.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims for the week ending 09/18, est. 338K. At 10AM, we get August Leading Economic Indicators, est. -.2%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  7:06:10 AM
Good morning. For those who want the short version of the overnight activity, the Nikkei was closed for a holiday, but many bourses traded lower after yesterday's declines in the U.S. equities markets and a rise in oil prices. Chip stocks still suffered from yesterday's downgrade of European chip stocks. Our futures have not reacted strongly either direction.

For those who want more details, rising crude prices pressured many Asian indices, as did the declines on the U.S. markets. Airliners, some auto manufacturers, and exporters declined. South Korea's Kospi was impacted by all three sectors, with Korean Air, Hyundai Motor, and Samsung Electronics all dropping in the morning session. Asian chip stocks also suffered from Morgan Stanley's downgrade of European semiconductor stocks.

The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.55%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.65%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.25%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.06%, however. Ahead of earnings by financial and petrochemical stocks, China's Shanghai Composite posted gains of 3.14%.

Currently, almost all European bourses head lower. In the U.K., real estate and financial services company Countrywide warned, blaming a cooling-off housing market. Airlines tended to be weak. Although oil major BP traded higher, Shell Trading and Transport declined after revealing its capital spending plan yesterday. Strong performers included SABMiller after its earnings update and the IPO by car insurer Admiral.

In continental Europe, car manufacturers declined, perhaps at least in part to Peugeot's CEO's statement that he cannot find signs of an improvement in demand for 2004's European auto market. A warning by appliances manufacturer Electrolux hit the markets hard, especially as Electrolux blamed rising steel prices that will have to be passed on to the consumer. Other stocks reacted to company-specific news, including a declines by Merck after it announced the licensing of an antidepressant drug to Genaissance Pharmaceuticals and Swiss Reinsurer Converium as it mulled options to help it cope with the financial hit taken after needing to lift reserves in the U.S. Dutch bank and insurer ING declined after affirming discussions to sell its German unit ING BHF-Bank to a privately-held firm.

As of 7:04 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 28.20 points or 0.61%, to trade at 4,564.10. The CAC 40 had dropped 27.21 points or 0.74%, to trade at 3,664.90. The DAX had dropped 31.70 points or 0.80%, to trade at 3,910.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/22/200,  11:03:44 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Close/sold 1/2, or 15 of the JDSU Dec. $3 Calls (UQD-LG) at $0.65. These were profiled as bullish on 07/14/04. ($-0.10 per contract, or -13.33%)

Closed/sold the 1 SOHU Dec. $15 Call (UZK-LC) at $3.20. This option was profiled as bullish on 08/25/04 at $3.60. ($-0.40, or -11.11%). Had originally purchased this call on thoughts of synthetic hedge against NTES puts, but SOHU really hasn't performed as I had thought. With Hange Seng ($HSI.X) achieving its bullish vertical count, I decided to close out on today's U.S. weakness.

Sold NAKED 2 SPX.X Oct. $1,135 calls at the bid of $4.90. Since these are NAKED I'm strongly suggesting a stop of $7.40 at this point.

Day trade short Monster Worldwide (MNST) at $22.73. Issued a close out alert just prior to close for $22.43 offer, where offer wasn't overly large and another market particpant crossed the market at the offer to $22.47 and would have made it impossible to get filled. As such, holding overnight with target of $22.05 and stop at break-even.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/22/200,  9:51:14 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/22/200,  8:23:34 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives