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  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:41:35 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:29:57 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  5:06:12 PM
Some AH trivia that may not be trivial...
I was just listening to a piece on Bloomberg TV about oil (which seems to be all anybody is talking about lately). They noted that oil closed at a record high today and then cited a survey of analysts that said a record number of them (59) thought oil would top $50 next week. That sounds scary on the surface but could a record number of analysts be considered a "consensus"?
Hmmmmm.... you know what the market likes to do when there is a consensus.
cya_l8r

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  4:40:40 PM
Here's the bullish reversal candle pattern I mentioned earlier called an "inverted hammer" or "bullish gravestone doji"... Link
Now take a look at the SPX daily chart and note how the last 6 similar looking patterns played out... Link
Also note the series of higher highs and higher lows on the 5-min chart... Link
Having noted all that I'll concede holding long over the weekend is a long shot and possibly an ill-advised play. On the daily chart you can see once MACD crosses down the odds are better for a short play. I'd also feel a lot better about the play if had just waited another 1/2 hour before entering. I could have had the same play @ 1109.90 vs 1111.40. We'll find out on Monday... in the meantime have a great weekend and be thankful I'm the one sweating and not you (grin).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  4:12:32 PM
Current OPEN MM Pofiles at this Link

This week's closed MM trades Link

I would also like to thank the market for closing the QQQ at $34.799

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  4:04:33 PM
As one of the other writers has already mentioned, the OEX is ending the day with a potential reversal signal on the daily chart. We may get that bounce yet for those seeking new bearish entries, but I'll have a better idea after I study charts this weekend, out of the heat of the fray.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  4:00:46 PM
Buy program premium DIA 100.64, SPY 111.40, QQQ $34.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:58:32 PM
Mitcham Industries (MIND) $5.74 +7.49% .... breaking to new 52-weeker and pretty good base of consolidation.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  3:53:14 PM
stepping away for 7 minutes (I don't want to watch the close)

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  3:51:08 PM
Nice trading Marc!

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  3:49:51 PM
Long @ 1111.40, stop 1009.40... will still hold over the weekend if not stopped out, although I sure wish I would have waited a little longer before entering this play. The basis for the long is the bullish reversal candle pattern, the SOX finding support @ 380 again and the SPX 5-min chart showing a series of higher lows and higher highs since 1108. As I noted earlier a close below 1109.56 would break the short-term uptrend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:46:05 PM
For reference, the 50% retracement of the OEX rally off the August low is at 533.595.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:45:25 PM
The OEX heads down again into the bottom of the 534-536 rectangular zone today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  3:44:41 PM
The wavelet oscillator did it's thing, and QQQ is coming in for a retest of 34.75. Will third try be a charm?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:30:43 PM
Take a look at the OEX's daily chart, and you'll see that if the OEX should steady here and rise, perhaps for a single day followed by a consolidation day, into the 538-540 range, it would present the possibility for a H&S on the daily chart. Although I didn't base my thought that a rise into 538-540 would make a good new bearish entry on this possibility, noticing it today corroborates the idea. Any technical analyst learning first chart patterns would recognize this possibility, though, so bulls wanting to avoid a Sept/Oct cascading fall will do their best to drive the OEX above 540-541 if the OEX should approach that level, while bears might try to jump in ahead of that test. That kind of action is what produces consolidation days. So far, I'm satisfied with the scenario that had me thinking today could be a digest-the-declines day that saw some false starts either direction, but hoping for a bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  3:30:40 PM
The 30 min cycle oscillators and cycle channel for QQQ are in a trendless sideways-downward drift. QQQ and NQ have been notably weaker than their peers today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  3:27:50 PM
Long @ 1111.40 and will hold over the weekend.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  3:24:53 PM
QQQ is testing 34.87-.90 resistance here with the wavelet upphase just topping out. This would be a picture-perfect spot for a rollover to confirm the short cycle downphase. If not, a break above 34.90 needs to break 34.95 and 35.04.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  3:18:02 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1111.75, +2

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:14:16 PM
The Nasdaq hit a double-bottom level. Will it hold?

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  3:12:49 PM
If we close the day at present levels (1110.25) that would print an "inverted hammer" or "bullish gravestone doji" on the daily chart. That is a bullish reversal pattern with low to moderate reliability.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:09:47 PM
The TRAN rose into Keltner and historical resistance. The BIX is still rising and has some room to rise further, Keltner-wise. The SOX is trying to dig in its heels and avoid a lower low, but Keltner resistance is massing right overhead. Is it any wonder that the OEX is trapped in a range all day? If the OEX had climbed into 538-540 today, even if it climbed into that region near the close, I'd feel comfortable suggesting that a new or established bearish position be held over the weekend. Because of the tendency to overrun targets on Friday afternoons, though, I just don't feel good about suggesting new bearish breakdown entries. Overrunning a target to the upside would be to our advantage for a new bearish entry. Overrunning it to the downside, just breaking through the breakdown entry, only to climb Monday morning, wouldn't.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:08:24 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  3:08:18 PM
QQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link . The 34.75 low held on a downward doji spike, now forming double bottom support intraday. Bulls do not want to see 34.87-.90 exceeded on the wavelet upphase forming here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  3:04:47 PM
The SPX 5-min chart is showing a series of higher lows and higher highs since yesterday's LOD @ 1108.05. It would take a 5-min close below 1109.56 to break the trend... and we're getting close.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:58:33 PM
If we continue down the next potential support levels are 1109.50, 1108.50 and then 1108. A drop much below 1108 would be very bearish as it would invalidate the confirmed daily inverse H&S pattern.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:56:40 PM
Daily chart of gold at this Link . Today printed a doji star that is just within yesterday's range to give us a harami verging on bearish... A break below 408 or above 414-415 should be directional.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:55:53 PM
SPX 1111 now seems to be acting as support turned minor resistance... good for the short play if it holds. Bears don't want to see SPX get much above 1111 from a very short-term perspective.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:54:45 PM
02:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:54:17 PM
Bonds continue to drift as we approach the cash close- TNX is flat now, up 0.2 bps at 4.03%. Nonetheless, it's a significant drift as the bulk of yesterday's gains in the TNX have held.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:52:35 PM
Note- my posts are getting delayed- that last was posted approx. 2 minutes ago. Suspect that it's the internet, which has been choppy all afternoon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:51:50 PM
QQQ has just lost 34.87 and is trying for for 34.79 fib support on the way to 34.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:49:18 PM
The TRAN isn't moving, but the OEX's break of the ascending trendline that it had been building since noon sent it back down to test the bottom of the 534-536 rectangular range it had been building.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:47:21 PM
Nice downside break... a bit lower and we'll be through that area of congestion around SPX 1111.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:46:08 PM
The 48.85 close for Nymex crude oil is a record high closing price.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:44:32 PM
Lowering stop on short to 1111.75, locking in another +2 while we have the chance

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:40:36 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $30.11 -0.06% .... setting up for another test of $30.00.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:40:17 PM
B-bands are rapidly converging on the 1112 area... we should have our answer soon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:37:33 PM
The TRAN is trying to rise again after Nymex crude closed. It's ringed closely round with support and resistance, with direction unclear. Whatever direction it goes, it might take other markets with it. It's a fast mover when it gets going, so watch carefully.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:35:07 PM
Nymex crude has closed pennies below its session high of 48.875, going out at 48.85, +.83%.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:34:26 PM
The SOX is definitely not helping the bullish case today and TSM seems to be the culprit.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:31:48 PM
The wavelet oscillator is trying to bottom here from the 34.87 QQQ print. The 60 min cycle continues to point south, while the 30 min is trying to turn up again. It will take a move below 34.80 to decisively turn the picture bearish on the 30 min cycle, while the 60 min continues to point gently lower from here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:28:26 PM
Not a lot of action in bonds, with TNX holding a fractional .3 bp gain at 4.031%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:26:25 PM
Reader Question: Your posts suggest that you want the OEX to go higher. Is this a setup to a bearish play on the OEX?

Response: Yes, it is as a setup to a bearish play. See my 21:49, 12:11, 13:15 and other posts for clarification. As I've been mentioning today, I wasn't advising long positions for any but adept scalpers who don't need my advice, as I considered any rise a possible countertrend move. However, I did hope for a bounce up to 538-540 and a rollover from there as a new bearish entry. I thought 536 might prove difficult for the OEX, and it has proven so, with the OEX now breaking below the ascending trendline established at about noon. I also suggested that a breakdown entry would come on a move below the 50% retracement of the move off the August low, with that level at 533.595. I'd like to have suggested a new bearish entry at 536, but thought there was still a possibility of a move up to 538. If the current dip is quickly reversed, that potential remains. We should soon see, but the TRAN's action may be one key.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:22:12 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1111.89, +3

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:20:22 PM
weird trade today. It's like there is a bout of decent buying, then bids disappear and quick erase of gains.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:19:37 PM
NQ is just flipping negative here and QQQ has just broken its prevous 100-tick low. 34.87-.90 is confluence support now in play, below which 34.83 and then the session low at 34.75.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:17:21 PM
Short @ 1113.75, stop 1113.75 and break even
Long @ 1108.89, stop 1111.89, +3 locked in

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:15:56 PM
The TRAN retreated, not quite as far as I had thought it might when I last mentioned it, and now faces Keltner resistance again, with that resistance near 3209.50, just under the 3210-3212 S/R zone. This could be tough for the TRAN to move above, but if it does, it could accelerate gains in other indices, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:13:29 PM
Nymex crude is up .20 to 48.65 currently.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:11:51 PM
Short @ 1113.75 but nervous about it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:11:37 PM
The internet is running very choppily over here- having trouble getting my posts through.

The bounce from 34.95 is from a higher intraday low- but then the failure from 35.10 was from a lower high. Bulls need to break that 35.10 level to have a chance of breaking the session high at 35.19 on this current short cycle upphase. The 30 min cycle channel is flattening again, but this time with upper resistance at 35.12, well below its prior 35.25 perch.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:08:06 PM
TRIN is dropping... currently .97

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:07:22 PM
Linda we're thinking in stereo.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  2:06:31 PM
My charting service is still down but if we can take out HOD @ 1113.78 the next area of resistance looks like 1115 on the cash index.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:06:26 PM
Those hoping to see a continue bounce for a better rollover entry want to see a new OEX high. OEX 536.24 was the previous high of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  2:06:12 PM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick update at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:59:01 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:56:03 PM
Unless we get some traction to the downside here pretty quick I will consider the stop running push a successful test to the upside, although any further advance may be with difficulty.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:54:50 PM
The TRAN has already reached a level that might cap its climbs, unless it's going to go into breakout mode. It looks as if it might need to pull back to 3200-3204 to at least recoup, even if it's going to continue climbing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  1:53:09 PM
The short cycle oscillators are rolling over now, following the wavelet down. Volume is light, however, and bears will want to see the south side of 34.87 before trusting a downmove from here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  1:50:56 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $50.14 +1.25% ... moves into recent gap down from quarterly earnings. Edges back above trying to round higher 50-day SMA.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:50:15 PM
Reader stunion... I received your email and responded but the response was returned with "permanent fatal errors".... try again please

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:50:02 PM
The OEX is showing five-minute and fifteen-minute closes where it needs to show them in order to continue the hope that it will climb. I'm looking at the possibility that any climb could be capped from 537.50-539.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:47:36 PM
A short is very tempting here Keene. CCI printed +420 then +180... MACD is still pointed north, though that could change in a heartbeat... Oops! It just did... as I typed this SPX printed a sell signal @ 1113.25 but after a vertical ramp like that I don't trust it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  1:46:49 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 354.97 +0.57% .... watch out bears

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  1:45:06 PM
Just came across this video which is strangely a propos of today's QQQ drop and then the recent ramp back up: Link . Note that the file is a 10mb download- stay away unless you have bandwidth to spare.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  1:42:13 PM
Day trade bearish stopped alert .... should be stopped out of BIIB at $60.28 with stock at $60.37.

QQQ's $35.02 +0.31% have held so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  1:39:20 PM
VIX.X 14.18 -4.18% ... session low

TRIN 1.05

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:39:12 PM
If the OEX breaks out of that rectangular 534-536 consolidation zone, with a trade above 536.03 (hit as I typed) and then with 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 535.80, it should be setting up a potential two-point climb. I'm not going to count on it getting that high, but this is what I've been waiting to see all day. As I warned earlier this morning, it's sure going to look scarier considering a bearish play after the climb than it did when calmly contemplating it pre-market, though, won't it? The possibility of this climb is the reason that I counseled late yesterday to hold off considering new bearish entries from that level. The OEX could still turn right around and offer the breakdown entry instead, but a possibility for a bounce was there.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:38:43 PM
Raising stop on long play to 1111.97... let's lock in a +3 pt gain.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  1:36:06 PM
Nymex crude is trading -.05 at 48.40 currently.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:34:06 PM
My charting service is down again. This always happens when you need it most.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  1:32:53 PM
Session high for YM and ES futures- ES is leading its peers today. NQ has shot up to 35.10 as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:32:41 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1113.10 and break even
Long play still active from 1108.97

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  1:31:37 PM
That vertical launch that took place as I was downing some Advil was on 2.7M QQQ shares within 100-ticks- someone needed a lot of QQQ in a hurry. The move paused for a second at 34.95 and proceeded to 35.00, our two earlier support levels. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are still pointed south and the wavelet upphase is now trending as the short cycle oscillators begin a new upphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:30:38 PM
The OEX pushed to the upside instead of the downside, although there's a chance that wasn't the stop-running push. It's still a bit early for that. The OEX is up against the five-minute Keltner mid-channel resistance that has held it back all day, with that resistance currently at 535.61-535.78. That resistance looks stronger than support on that chart, but on the 15-minute chart, support near the day's low looks stronger than resistance, indicating that bulls and bears haven't yet decided which will win this particular battle. The OEX needs to produce 15-minute closes above 535.80 before those hoping for a bounce should even begin to believe a bounce might get started.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  1:28:33 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert for BIIB $60.01 +0.7% ... to break even.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:26:34 PM
Wrong again on the push!

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:20:35 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:20:26 PM
Based on the way Keltner charts are lining up on the OEX, Mark, I'd say down, too, if it occurs quickly, but then that it's likely to be bought again near 534, maybe just to waffle around some more within that 534-536 zone--one of those false starts I've been expecting all day today. If it doesn't happen for twenty or thirty minutes, the charts might be lining up differently, though.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  1:17:22 PM
The stop running push should be interesting today if it occurs. I would guess a test to the downside. Linda has been so nice to me lately I decided to put myself on the spot today.
Benchmarking ahead of stop running push... SPX = 1110.81

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:15:05 PM
If you're an experienced trader who only wants the facts, ma'am, then pass up this post. However, if you're new to trading and especially if you're new to options trading, I encourage you to do what each of us does here at OIN: prepare a scenario for what you think might happen during the day. Mine today was for a possible digest-the-declines period that I hoped would be followed by at least a slight climb into a rollover zone. I thought that digest-the-declines action might see some false starts one way or the other, or both. I thought 536 might be particularly difficult for the OEX to get past, and it has been. Still, that scenario kept me from jumping to too many bearish conclusions for the day. I'd like to say it kept me patiently waiting for chart developments to develop, but I haven't been entirely patient.

The scenarios we post late each evening or early each morning are public, so you know when we're wrong. Still, they allow you and us to test the day's developments against that scenario and know when something doesn't fit. That's either a sign that something was wrong with the analysis or that something not yet understood is happening with the markets, some new development. Doing this day in and day out, in a trading journal perhaps, allows you to pinpoint your shortcomings. Do you not allow for these kind of consolidation periods, whether for hours or days or even weeks, in your thinking? Are you trying to trade too often, even if the day or a period during the day shows every sign of not being tradable? Are you trying to be a scalper on days like this, a perfectly acceptable tactic if your skills fit, but a terrible one if your skills really fit the swing-trade parameter, where you hold a position for days?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  1:12:30 PM
This headache isn't letting up. Going to take 2 and shut my eyes for a few minutes.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  1:07:47 PM
hmm... six years ago today you could have bought EBAY for $3.95 a share.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  1:07:08 PM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick update at this Link . Very low volume and very little movement over the past half hour for this wavelet bounce. That bounce is just beginning to roll over (3rd oscillator pane from the bottom).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  1:05:36 PM
01:00 market watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  1:02:29 PM
thanks. I'm happy that TDS turned higher as well.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:01:57 PM
Congratulations on the PD play, James.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:59:32 PM
Exit Alert! PD has reached our profit target at $90.00 so we'll be closing the play tonight.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  12:55:27 PM
B-bands are getting pinched pretty tight here and we're sitting right at the upper b-band. If you twisted my arm I'd say we're probably going to head lower. CCI printed +250 at 12:30PM, but has not printed a reading of -200 (oversold) all day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:54:38 PM
Have you ever seen such miniscule five-minute candles as the ones printing on the OEX over the last 25 minutes? Seems as if something has got to break soon, doesn't it, but meanwhile, the OEX is just oscillating between 534-536.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  12:53:51 PM
The drop below 34.87 coincided with an early abort to the 60 min cycle oscillators for the NQ futures which are now in a downphase on the 30 min, 60 min and daily cycles. This lines up with what the proxy channels are doing on my intraday QQQ chart. The oversold extreme is being worked off, and 30 min cycle support is down to 34.75. Again, I expect the bounces to be weaker than the drops, and next key confluence is in the 34.60-.65 area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:50:58 PM
Amgen (AMGN) $57.18 -0.67% ..... hovering at its morning lows.

Biogen Idec (BIIB) $59.91 +1.01% .... stronger right now and still off morning and yesterday low of $59.09

QQQ $34.87 -0.14% .... session low has been $34.75, and I would have to guess some bears were doing some buying just above DAILY S2 as SOX.X fell so fast to its WEEKLY S1 (379.30).

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:49:09 PM
Late to the party? This morning Smith Barney raised their 2004 WTI oil estimate from $36 to $41 a barrel and their 2005 WTI oil estimate from $28 to $36 a barrel.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:47:47 PM
Mark, she says with grizzled head lowered, I think that came from this old timer. I think I used that expression just the other day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:45:33 PM
Updated SOX.X on 30-minute intervals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  12:43:24 PM
We're smack dab in the middle of our long and short plays with TRIN @ a very neutral 1.01. Sitting tight seems to have been the right move. I was very tempted to take profits on the short @ 1110. Did I say "smack dab"? That's an old timer's expression isn't it? Hmmmm... wonder where that came from? (grin)

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  12:38:28 PM
Jeff I wonder if that means they are going to ambush us later today with a flood of program trades.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:36:42 PM
No buy or sell program premiums so far today.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:34:16 PM
LM is just now cutting Krispy Kreme (KKD) to a "hold". The stock is near all-time lows at $12.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:34:02 PM
iShares 1-3 year (AMEX:ISH) $81.98 -0.09% Link ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:33:45 PM
Here's an update of the NDX 382-minute 100/130-ema's that I first talked about in my 10:20 post this morning, showing that the just-completed NDX decline came down to test that 100-ema on this chart: Link I'm still watching to see if there's a bounce, still a possibility, or a breakdown, but it appears that the bear flag that had been building did break to the downside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:32:03 PM
Netease.com (NTES) $38.23 +0.2% Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:31:58 PM
We are suggesting readers EXIT our OI call play in PD if shares hit $90.00. If this occurs we'll close it tonight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:30:37 PM
Phelpsy (PD) $89.83 +3.27% Link ... copper-hoppers impressed.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:30:07 PM
Jane Wells on CNBC saying that new studies suggest dogs can actually smell cancer.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:29:25 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $30.25 +0.43% Link ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:28:41 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.35 -2.33% Link ....

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:27:46 PM
Smith Barney upgraded a few oil stocks today...APC, KMG and XTO were all raised to a "buy".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:27:43 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $39.44 +1.7% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:26:20 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $13.93 -0.92% Link ....

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:24:50 PM
Cramer on CNBC saying that next week should see the end-of-month and end-of-Quarter window dressing pushing oil stocks, defense stocks and Internet stocks higher.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  12:24:20 PM
Stepping away to nurse a headache - back shortly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  12:22:38 PM
Both the 30 and 60 min cycle channels have rolled over here, with 30 min resistance down to 35.20. Support is currently at 34.82, and the clothesline drop below rising support got ahead of the cycle channels. The oversold extreme on the shortest intraday cycles is behind the current bounce from the lows, but I expect that to be of the "b" distribution variety. A weak short cycle bounce from here that fails below 35 and ideally, below 34.90, should set us up for a move to 34.65 support on the next run.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:20:43 PM
PalmSource (PSRC) is down more than 16% to $20.90 and bouncing somewhat from its simple 200-dma above the $20.00 mark. The move follows the company's earnings report last night where PSRC beat estimates by 7 cents. Looks like investors are not happy with the guidance going forward.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:19:58 PM
(VIX.X in la-la-land at 14.28 (just under daily S2 14.32) as TRIN rising at 1.09.

SPX back to trade DAILY Pivot at 1,110.08.

QQQ... whatch'a going to do?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:18:49 PM
James, I just happened to have spent some time checking some of the big-caps against their 200-week sma's this week: GE, MER, CSCO, etc. GE spent the last two weeks testing its, and has now fallen away; MER is currently testing its, and CSCO spend part of the week testing its and has now fallen away.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:17:47 PM
Biotechs (BTK.X) 525.91 +0.36% ..... erased earlier 1% gain. The thought here is that bids would be pulled as SOX.X fell, QQQ followed.

For my BIIB bearish trade, we now need QQQ to give up the DAILY S2 ($34.71).

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:16:53 PM
ah.. I didn't notice that. Thanks, Linda.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:15:48 PM
James, $50.66 is also the 200-week sma for MER.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  12:15:37 PM
It's very tempting to try picking a direction here and close out one of the concurrent long and short plays for a profit, but with +4 points locked in it's probably best to just sit tight for now and let the market pick the direction. If either play is taken out at break even the winning play could gain some acceleration, especially if it's the short from 1113.10. Taking out the long play @ 1108.97 would have to be considered bearish but even then we'd still have to get through today's LOD and then the 1108 neckline on the daily chart. If we drop below 1108 by much the short from 1113.10 would be looking very good indeed, but somehow I don't see that happening.

As I was typing this we did get that dip to 1110, complete with a finger formation on the 1-min chart. I hope I didn't miss my chance to take +3 on the short and let the long run higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:15:24 PM
SOX.X 382.87 -2.77% ... has slipped under its DAILY S2. Next support not yet traded would be WEEKLY S1 of 379.30.

It's up to the NDX/QQQ to provide the support now.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  12:14:33 PM
Merrill's rival Goldman Sachs (GS) has lowered its earnings estimates on MER ahead of its October 12th report date. Shares of MER dipped this morning but traders bought the dip at $50.00 support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:13:41 PM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,401.08 -0.33% .... trades its WEEKLY S2.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  12:13:22 PM
QQQ chart update at this Link . Look for 34.87-.90 to act as resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:12:20 PM
Biogen Idec (BIIB) $59.80

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:11:33 PM
To clarify my position for some who might not have read my earlier posts, I'm waiting/hoping for a movement up to 540-541, although I suspect that 537-539 might cap any OEX gains, for a possible rollover entry for bears wanting new entries. I expected 536 to be difficult today and a possible top for the day, and it has proven difficult, but I'm forcing myself to be patient while the OEX waffles around within a building consolidation zone from 534-536. A breakdown entry would occur on a move below 533.595, the 50% retracement of the rally off the August low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:11:22 PM
QQQ $34.82

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:10:48 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  12:10:45 PM
34.87 support being tested here. The low print was QQQ 34.86.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:07:15 PM
We can forget consideration of the potential inverse H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, displayed in my 11:53 post. Bulls haven't mustered enough strength for even a short-term climb as yet. The OEX does still maintain a rising short-term trendline, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:07:02 PM
TRIN 1.07

VIX.X 14.23 -3.85% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  12:02:31 PM
QQQ is delivering nice followthrough on the intraday trendline break. 34.95 is premarket support, followed by 34.90 and the 34.87 levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:01:48 PM
Currently, resistance looks stronger than support on the OEX's five-minute Keltner chart, resulting in this current pullback, but support looks at least equal to resistance on the 15-minute one, suggesting that the OEX might be able to maintain at or above the low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:01:14 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 386.84 -1.76% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:56:41 AM
Bearish day trade short alert for Biogen Idec (BIIB) $60.28 here, stop $60.55, target $59.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:53:24 AM
TRIN 1.10

VIX.X 14.21 -3.98%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:53:22 AM
Both 30 and 60 min channel resistances for QQQ have crept up to 35.27, with support up to 34.90 and 34.87 respectively. However, QQQ at 35.05 is below the rising trendline connecting the day lows. Next short term confluence support is at 35.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:53:11 AM
New formation to watch on the OEX's five-minute chart, a possible inverse H&S: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:50:43 AM
Trade blotter tabulation while there was an offer of $3.30 for the SPX Oct. 1,135 calls (SPT-JG) it was probably too small and several trades later in the session took place at the next offer of $3.60.

I will use $3.60 as exit price.

SPX 1,112.27 here with bid $3.00 and offer $3.60.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  11:48:51 AM
See what I mean? ...so much for the bear flag. I'm taking the SPX reversal back up without ever printing a buy signal as bullish in the very short-term.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  11:46:37 AM
The short signal that printed right at the top still has not aborted and CCI has not yet printed a reading of -200 or lower. MACD has turned back up but has not crossed yet and the last 10 minutes look like a little bear flag on the 1-min chart. I'd love to see SPX run down and kiss 1110 area, then reverse higher on a buy signal, but what I'd love to see and what actually happens rarely coincide.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:43:18 AM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 529.23 +0.99% .... only tech-related sector showing muster.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:42:20 AM
The TRAN did head down to test that Keltner suport, and it's so far holding, but the test may not be completed yet. I expect 3206-3210 to cap TRAN gains, at least before another pullback. Was today's high close enough? Possibly, although I'd have to see that down-to-3190-ish support fail first on a five-minute closing basis before I made that conclusion.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  11:41:46 AM
OI call play TDS is up strongly today +2.24% to $84.40. This is a breakout over the $84.00 level, which was resistance last week. I would suggest that our readers strongly consider taking profits here. Our exit point/profit target was $84-85.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:40:18 AM
SOX.X 390.58 -0.81% ... and sets up for what could be a very important test today of DAILY S1 and WEEKLY Pivot.

If the SOX.X fail that test, the the QQQ trade just above yesterday's highs looks like a "bull trap."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:39:43 AM
The SOX, BIX, and TRAN, three indicator indices I often watch, as do others, are certainly giving a mixed picture today. The SOX has broken below the ascending trendline it was trying to build and heads down. The TRAN performs strongly, printing a candle that so far builds a possible tweezer-bottom, although the day is far from over and the TRAN currently challenges strong resistance. The BIX? It's printing a doji at the bottom of a steep drop. When you see these three trading in opposition this way, you sometimes also see mixed-up trading conditions until they stop pulling other indices in opposite directions.

 
 
  James Brown   9/24/200,  11:39:39 AM
There seems to a difference of opinion on PD.

This morning Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from "over weight" to "equal weight". MWD believes that PD's valuation is getting rich with a P/E of 18 and suggests that copper prices may have peaked here. Prudential disagrees and reiterates its "over weight" outlook.

The stock dipped this morning but immediately rallied. Shares are at new seven-month highs. With PD up 2.12% to $88.83 we are suggesting that readers prepare to exit. Our target is $90.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:37:30 AM
QQQ needs to break 35.05 support to violate the rising support line connect today's lows.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  11:36:35 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:36:00 AM
Bullish day trade stop alert for the SMH $30.98

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:35:09 AM
11:00 Internals at this

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:32:19 AM
The TRAN holds just under 3200, with the possibility that it needs to pull back to 3192-3195 to regroup before pushing toward 3206-3207. Support still looks somewhat stronger than resistance, but supporting lines begin to thin.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:30:50 AM
Updated QQQ 100-tick chart at this Link . I've turned off the fib grid and will reapply it when we get our breakout/breakdown.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  11:24:34 AM
Setting stop on short play @ 1113.10 and break even
We now have the market bracketed with puts and calls and have +4 points locked in no matter which way it goes. Stops on both plays are set to break even so there is zero risk. The extra commissions are well worth the peace of mind.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:21:57 AM
The OEX was turned back by the Keltner resistance I mentioned. Those hoping for a bounce hope to see five-minute closes above the Keltner lines at 535.02 and 535.39, with preference for the higher of those two numbers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:20:44 AM
35.14-.15 QQQ is now holding as support. A break back below it that clears 35.10 will establish the move to the high as a stop-runner.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:18:46 AM
The SPX breaks through Keltner resistance, setting up a potential drive up toward 1116.60, but only if the SPX can maintain five-minute closes above the Keltner lines currrently near 1111.90-1112.09.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  11:18:35 AM
Short @ 1113.10 but that wasn't much of a pullback (yet)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:17:23 AM
The TRAN tests 3200, at 3201.24 as I type. Keltner charts suggest 3206 might prove to be resistance, but also show much support gathering from 3187-3198, with strongest support perhaps near 3190. It looks as if that support should hold on a pullback.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:13:53 AM
If the NDX's climb off this week's lows is a bear-flag climb, it should probably not retrace high than slightly over 1422 before failing.

Note: After first posting this, I noted a previous discussion by other writers about this same 1422 level. Guess we're all looking at the same thing.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  11:12:46 AM
SPX is trying to print a sell signal but it's not quite there yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:10:21 AM
OEX hitting Keltner resistance now, with that resistance up to 535.98. I would perhaps expect a pullback here, but those hoping for a bounce hope to see the pullback find five-minute closes above 535.53 or 535.10. This is a critical point for those hoping for a bounce at least up to 538.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:10:14 AM
Session low for euro and silver futures here, 1.2252 and 6.396 respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:07:26 AM
The OEX has not yet confirmed its double-bottom formation and faces strong Keltner resistance as it rises to do so.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:06:45 AM
SPX confirms its double-bottom formation and now tests the 19.1% retracement of the decline off the last Tuesday high, with that level at just over 1112.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:06:21 AM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 569.13 +0.58% ... makes new session high after yesterday's "doji"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:06:16 AM
QQQ just broke 35.14-.15 resistance. Next is combined 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 35.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:05:17 AM
Confirmation level for the Dow's double-bottom-ish formation is a move above 10,070, with the 19.1% retracement of the decline off the late Tuesday high at about 10,077.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:04:19 AM
The 30 min QQQ channel was downticking but has flattened again. The 60 min channel remains flat and never twitched today. The 30 min oscillators are in a weak downphase, the 60 min in a weak upphase. The 60 min cycle should prevail, pointing to upside from here, but that upside should remain weak because of the daily cycle downphase opposing it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:04:09 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:02:16 AM
The confirmation level for the OEX's potential double-bottom formation would come on a move above 536.03, the peak between the two troughs. Note, however, that a 19.1% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's high lies at about 536.50, so it's possible that some resistance could be encountered there, too. OEX 536 looks more important, though.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  11:01:19 AM
Stopped out of short play @ 1112.00 and break even...
Long play still active from 1108.97

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  11:01:13 AM
Session highs across the board, QQQ at 35.13.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  11:00:01 AM
HMO Index (HMO.X) boom!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:59:29 AM
Clicking through the indices on intra-day charts in our Market Watch from top to bottom...

RLX.X 407.28 challenges morning high, but only sector at this point I see able to challenge its highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:58:54 AM
The SOX still maintains the possibility of building an inverse H&S with an ascending neckline on the daily chart. Remember that an inverse H&S's neckline can also prove to be strong resistance. This one has a difficult-to-determine exactly neckline, but it appears that a break above the 9/21 high of 406.66 would confirm it and would set up a potential upside target of 452, but I wouldn't count on that target being hit. If in bullish semi-related plays on such a breakout, I'd sure be prepared for a possible stalling of any advance from 418-424, though, and then again near 440, the site of a descending trendline off the year's high. Until proven otherwise, I would consider any such bullish play to be a countertrend play and one that could fail at any time.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  10:58:43 AM
SPX new HOD @ 1111.44

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  10:53:49 AM
The last hour of sideways action is beginning to look like an ascending triangle on the SPX 1-min chart. Above 1111 would be a breakout to the upside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:52:55 AM
Famous last words, Marc :)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:50:46 AM
The short cycle oscillators are a choppy mess. The wavelet oscillator is just turning up, while the longer TRIX is just turning down- reinforces the "blender" interpretation wihin the range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:48:23 AM
EMC Corp. (EMC) $11.24 +1.71% Link .... higher on Morgan Keegan upgrade to "outperform"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:45:50 AM
QQQ is putting in a higher low intraday Link which is a bullish sign- but again, 35.15 needs to get broken. Below 35.00, the prior low will be broken. A break above 35.15 will hit upper channel resistance at 35.25, followed by confluence at 35.29.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  10:44:44 AM
I'm torn between exiting the long play for +2 or just leaving things alone. I'm going to leave both plays alone but have a feeling I might later regret not taking the +2 on the long when I had the chance, especially if today ends up being a doji day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:43:31 AM
Once again, Keltner support trying to firm beneath the OEX's position, from 533.98-534.32, with that support looking stronger than nearest resistance on the 15-minute chart. We saw this happen over and over yesterday, though, with the OEX then just falling through support. We need to start seeing 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 534.83 before we start believing too strongly in bounce potential.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:40:42 AM
Paychex (PAYX) $30.47 +1.16% .... little bugger kissed $30.00 smack even just after the opening tick, but bid from there.

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $23.25 +4.35% shot higher like a rocket at the open.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:39:38 AM
So far so good for gold- the day lows at 408.60 held. Prior support had been 405, and 408 will qualify for a higher high from which to attach 414-415 resistance again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:37:18 AM
Here's the continuation-form potential H&S I earlier mentioned as potentially forming on the OEX's five-minute chart: Link Bulls don't want to see this confirmed, and neither do bears hoping for a new bounce-and-rollover entry. If considering a new breakdown entry, I would wait for a break through 533.595, the 50% retracement of the rally off the August low, before entering.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:35:42 AM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 567.25 +0.25% Link .... did break just above yesterday's highs in the first 30-minutes of trade, but pulling back in here.

On that break higher I thought we might get a little more burst of buying and be an equity-based signal of a rebound for stocks today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:34:44 AM
QQQ is back to 35.00 again. This range has become a veritable blender. So far, the 60 min cycle upphase is no stronger than the 30 min upphase was yesterday. I'm thinking that a failure to get some upside price traction this morning will have longs beginning to sweat for this afternoon. The daily cycle is on a fresh sell signal with bearish crosses on the daily NQ oscillators. A break below 34.87 will confirm that it's not a false signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:33:11 AM
Semconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.20 +0.32% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows .... $30.34, $30.72, Piv = $31.02 , $31.41, $31.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:29:43 AM
TRIN still at 1.00

VIX.X 14.50

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:28:30 AM
The OEX still trades within the 534-536 consolidation zone it's been establishing, not breaking out either direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:28:02 AM
Somebody's "flashing" those SPX Oct. 1,135 calls at the bid.... $2.95 and $3.00

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:26:43 AM
The OEX appears to show more correlation with the 100/130-ema's on the 191-minute chart than the 382-minute one (see my 10:20 post for an explanation): Link This might suggest an eventual retest of these averages, so perhaps the OEX can climb toward 539.75 unless those averages drift down before the OEX retests them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:25:10 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 352.72 -0.03% .... did kiss that near-term upward trend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:23:35 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:22:15 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart update at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:20:37 AM
As I've said at other times, I use these no-trade-available times for market research. I might experiment with new technical analysis tools or chart settings. This morning, I've been trying something that another writer suggested many months ago, experimenting with time intervals based on Fibonacci numbers. Here's the NDX in reference to its 100/130-ema's on a 382-minute chart: Link There's a strong correlation between the NDX's trading pattern and those averages on that time interval's chart, isn't there? Note that a trading day is 390 minutes, so you might just think that the correlation is with the daily 100/130-ema's, but here's the 390-minute chart: Link The daily chart looks almost identical to the 390-minute one. The two don't look much alike, do they, and the correlation with the 100/130-ema's is not nearly as strong.

While you're looking at the two charts, note that the NDX has been finding support for the last few 382-minute bars on those averages. The slight rise off those averages perhaps looks a bit like a possible bear flag, however, so watching for a break below or continued support from those averages on a 382-minute close is perhaps important. The 382-minute 100-ema is currently at 1398.61.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:15:35 AM
Gold is down to a session low of 408.80, -3.80.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  10:15:18 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:05:09 AM
QQQ is back down to former (weak) resistance at 35.05. We've just seen another failure below 35.14, but this was from a slightly lower high (by 3 or 4 cents). The range remains 34.87-35.15, and a breakout above 35.15 will need to get through 35.25 for confirmation, while we should see fireworks on a break below 34.87.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:04:11 AM
10:02 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:02:29 AM
The Dow, OEX, and SPX resist confirming their double-bottom formations, at least for the time being.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:02:23 AM
Bonds have weakened again, with TNX now up 2 bps at 4.048%. Those prints south of 4% are starting to look like a throwunder, particularly given how bottomy the weekly cycle has been looking for the past week.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  10:01:05 AM
Headline: 10:00am U.S. AUG. EXISTING HOME SALES DOWN 2.7% TO 6.54 MLN

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:59:51 AM
Correction to DAILY Pivot levels for the VIX.X .... 14.32, 14.50, Piv = 14.79, 14.97 15.26.

VIX.X 14.62 -1.21% here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:59:37 AM
The Fed has just announced a weekend repo of 3.75B- which is a net drain of 2B against the 5.75B expiring today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  9:59:02 AM
Raising stop on long play...
Long @ 1108.97, stop 1108.97 and break even
Short @ 1112.00, stop 1112.00 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:53:31 AM
This is premature, but if the OEX should confirm the potential double-bottom formation building on the 15-minute chart, one that looks like a possible rectangular "b" distribution pattern building on its 60-minute chart, the upside target would be at about 538. OEX 538.50-539.40 looks as if it might cap possible upside on a Keltner basis, too, if 536-536.50 doesn't stop the OEX first, so there might be some validity in suspecting that 537-539 might be a potential rollover point for the OEX. A 38.2% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's late-day high is at 538.68, another reason to suspect that the OEX might find strong resistance there.

So if I suspect that 537-539 might be the possible topside, why didn't I suggest a long play? I consider the long play a countertrend play that will likely settle into some kind of measured distribution pattern that could break down any time before a 50% retracement of the decline from Tuesday's high, with that level at just over 540, but the breakdown could happen at the 19.1% retracement, near 536.40 and a possible resistance zone, too, as well as it could at 537-539 or 540-541.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:53:26 AM
Session highs across the board here. Existing home sales data due in 7 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:51:30 AM
Day trade long alert for the Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $31.38 here, stop $30.98, target $31.90 by the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:50:43 AM
VIX.X alert 14.52 -2.09% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:50:18 AM
TRIN bounced back to 0.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:46:34 AM
Session low for gold at 410.30 here, -2.30 or .56%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:46:08 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $40.16 +3.66% ... on the move early.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:45:46 AM
QQQ 2-day chart update at this Link . Breaking the short term intraday downtrend line as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:44:35 AM
Nymex crude is still negative, down .15 to 48.30, -.31% for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:39:56 AM
The TRAN dipped lower today, and now hovers only cents above the day's low. I'm waiting to see what happens next.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:38:31 AM
VIX.X 14.82 +0.13%...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:38:03 AM
TRIN 0.71

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:37:51 AM
Gold has pulled back in a hurry, down 1.90 to 410.70 current from a high of 413.80. The resistance level at 414-415 about which I've been writing has been very firm so far. Bulls will want to see 408 support hold for any retest. Currently HUI is down .11% at 215.49, XAU -.17% at 95.91.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/24/200,  9:36:56 AM
Long @ SPX 1108.89, stop 1107.89...
Short @ 1112.00, stop 1112.00 and break even
SPX printed a buy signal right at the open but I wanted to wait a few minutes to see if it aborted. It hasn't (yet) and since we are so close to the 1108 level an insurance long play seemed like a good idea until/if we break through the neckline decisively. This locks in +3 pts and we'll let the market decide which way it wants to go. I'm leaving the short play from yesterday active and not changing the stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:36:17 AM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) 9.75 +0.61% ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:34:54 AM
QQQ 2-day chart update at this Link . Look for resistance 35.05, above which it's all chop to yesterday's key resistance at 35.14-.15. Any failure to reach that 35.15 level this morning will see the 30 min channel begin to pull down. Upper resistance remains at 35.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:33:24 AM
And the OEX bounces at yesterday's low. We need to see a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 534.71 to even get the bounce underway.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:32:46 AM
Swing trade naked call close out alert for the SPT-JG at $3.30 offer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:32:07 AM
OEX heads down for a test of yesterday's low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:31:58 AM
TRIN 0.86

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:29:54 AM
December Fed Fund futures (ff04z) have edged below 98.00 at 97.985. A 10% chance of 50 basis point rate hike between now and year's end.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:28:13 AM
Those hoping for a new bearish entry on the OEX hope for a bounce, perhaps after a test first thing this morning of yesterday's low. See my 21:49 post for an explanation. Remember that if the bounce is delivered, particularly if the OEX climbs up to 540-541, the outlook is going to look much more bullish than it does from down here, while we're dispassionately planning a possible new bearish entry. If the OEX does push above 540-541.50, either the OEX has overshot the resistance or else something more bullish is going on and the bear planning a new entry should probably step aside and watch to see which it is.

One note: the OEX's five-minute chart shows a possibility of a continuation-form H&S forming at the bottom of yesterday's decline, with the neckline formed on the ascending trendline off the day's low. If that neckline is violated early in the morning, I would probably still wait for a move below the 50% retracement of the rally off the August low, at 533.595, before entering a new bearish position, as that's likely to be strong support.

After two days of strong declines, I wouldn't be surprised to see a difficult-to-trade, digest-the-losses sort of day with some false starts both directions. Since I would not suggest longs for OEX options traders, I'm content to let it be a difficult-to-trade day as long as the OEX works its way up to an appropriate rollover zone for a new bearish entry!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:27:27 AM
5-year yield ($FVX.X) up 2.9 bp at 3.34%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:19:09 AM
TNX is flipping around both sides of unchanged as well.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  9:12:25 AM
Session high for NQ here, up 2 to 1411.5. QQQ is up .04 to 34.97, back at previous morning resistance. A 30 min cycle downphase is in progress on NQ currently, with channel support at 34.89 and resistance still at 35.25. The short cycle is in a listless downphase, and I'm hoping that we get some movement here instead of an extension of the sideways chop in progress since Tuesday.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/24/200,  9:09:08 AM
Dateline WSJ - Morningstar Inc., the firm that millions of investors rely on to rate the performance of mutual funds, could face civil charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission for failing to promptly correct inaccurate data it published about a mutual fund.

The SEC has formally notified the financial-information company that it may have violated securities rules. Joseph Mansueto, Morningstar's founder and chairman, said in an interview that the firm is in discussions with the SEC about settling the case.

The probe raises questions about the systems Morningstar has in place to ensure the accuracy of its core business of tracking and rating about 15,700 mutual funds in the U.S. It also comes at an awkward time for Morningstar, which registered with the SEC for an initial public offering of its own shares in May with a filing in which it called itself "one of the most recognized and trusted names in the investment industry."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:01:28 AM
December Palladium (pa04z) 221.90 +2.42% .... rising again this morning after yesterday's double-top buy signal.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  8:42:37 AM
An initial pop in QQQ has been reversed, with QQQ back to 34.91 and NQ at a session low of 1408.5. QQQ failed at 34.97, but bears want to see some prints below yesterday's support at 34.87. With the daily cycle on sell signals and the 30 and 60 min upphases only sideways yesterday, the path of least resistance appears to be down from here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  8:31:41 AM
QQQ is up to 34.96, 10-yr bonds down, with TNX up .8 bps to 4.036% following the 8:30 data.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  8:30:47 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. AUG. DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS FALL 0.5%

8:30am U.S. AUG. EX-TRANSPORTATION ORDERS UP 2.3%

8:30am U.S. AUG DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS UP 1.7%

8:30am U.S. AUG. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS FALL 0.5%

8:30am U.S. AUG. TRANSPORTATION GOODS ORDERS FALL 6.8%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  8:28:55 AM
New session high for gold here at 413 and silver at 6.505. QQQ is down 3 cents at 34.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/24/200,  7:59:33 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1180, NQ 1408.50, YM 10028 and QQQ -.01 at 34.92. Gold is down .30 to a session high of 412.30, silver -.014 to 6.457, ten year bonds up .07 to 113.31 and Nymex crude down .30 to 48.15.

We await the 8:30 release of durable orders, est. -.3% and at 10AM, existing home sales, est. 6.65M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  7:05:04 AM
Good morning. In overnight trading, the Nikkei declined amid various pressures, including higher oil prices and a disappointing economic number, with other Asian markets turning in mixed performances. European markets attempt to hold near their flat-line levels as insurers come under pressure. Our futures also hold near Thursday's closing levels, with gold down $0.05 and Nymex crude down $0.31 as this report is prepared.

The rest of the report provides more detail for those who would like that detail. Last night was the Nikkei's first opportunity to react to losses in the U.S., since the bourse was closed Thursday for a holiday. The Nikkei gapped below 11,000 and tumbled, also pressured by rising oil prices. By mid-afternoon, it had reached its low of the day at 10,826.40, but it climbed off that low and trimmed losses to close down by 124.25 points or 1.13%, at 10,895.16. That was its lowest close since August 20.

Aversion to holding stocks about to go ex-dividend at the end of the day's trade and end-of-the-half-year selling ahead of the month's end also contributed to the decline. In addition, Japan released the index of tertiary services industry activity for July, with that number showing a surprise decline of 0.8% from June's number. Autos were mixed, with Honda Motor gaining after it raised its sales projection and Toyota Motor falling after raising its sales projection for Europe. In stock-specific news, NTT DoCOMo fell more than 3%, with the company planning to collaborate with Cingular Wireless to set technical specifications for G3 cell phones and services.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.76%. With South Korea's LG Electronics gaining more than 3% after purportedly seeking a joint venture with Canada's Nortel Networks, the Kospi gained 0.29%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.76%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.61%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.99%.

Currently, European bourses tend to be either lightly positive or lightly negative. In the U.K., chocolate and beverage maker Cadbury Schweppe's lowering of 2004 earnings projections due to a weak beverage market in the U.S. and Europe pressured the markets. U.K. telecoms group Thus warned that H1 pre-tax profits before interest, depreciation and amortization would drop below 2003's, sending Thus and competitors lower. Talk about M&A activity in the banking sector continued. Electrolux's warning this week about the impact of higher raw materials costs is beginning to have an impact, with Lehman Brothers downgrading British aerospace firm GKN to underweight from an equal-weight rating, reportedly because of the same worries about steel costs that affected Electrolux.

On continental Europe, chip-related stocks built on SOX gains in the U.S., but Philips Electronics could not hold onto its gains after the head of the chip division said the company's book-to-bill ratio would be less than one and the company warned that sales in that division would disappoint. Insurers fell on worries about the claims costs association with Typhoon Songda and hurricanes hitting the U.S.

As of 7:02 EST, the FTSE 100 was flat, up 0.20 points to 4,568.50. The CAC 40 was up 3.06 points or 0.08%, to 3,656.16. The DAX had fallen 9.66 points or 0.25%, to 3,896.00, moving back toward the low of the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  10:03:36 PM
Don't forget that next week marks the end of the CALENDAR quarter. Mutual funds get busy with fine tuning and rebalancing their portfolios. Get your your IRA/SEP/401k statements and do the same.

Here's the "Beetle's Balanced Benchmark" as of tonight's close from our quarterly rebalance of 06/25/04. Link

Gold, "junk bonds" and longer-dated Treasuries were the big winners. Tech/QQQ has 1 week to get its act together.

If YOU were the manager of this portfolio, what might you do?

Rebalance now, or wait until next week?

Might just find out tomorrow!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/23/200,  9:49:13 PM
The OEX descended Thursday to test the 50% retracement of the rally off the August low, as well as historical S/R. This should be a natural bounce point for the OEX, and that's what I'm hoping to see--a bounce up to test resistance and a rollover from there. My hope would be to see a bounce up to 540-541, but that may be a too-hopeful target. OEX 538-540 might be more reasonable, although it, too, might be a tad too hopeful a target. We'll watch carefully tomorrow if 536-536.50 is tested, as that's the first hurdle the OEX must clear.

If the OEX should rollover from Thursday's close instead or gap down, watch for a steadying near the 50% retracement of the August rally, with that 50% level at a calculated and exact 533.595. Those seeking new breakdown entries could enter on a roll down through that level, but they should be ready to jump out again if a strong bounce should begin, knowing that a new rollover entry could be sought.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/23/200,  9:37:32 PM
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