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  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  9:31:17 PM
e-mini NASDAQ (nq04z) with two retracement that look to be in play at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  6:26:30 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  5:24:49 PM
Solectron (SLR) $5.00 +2.88% Link ... up 3% at $5.15 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.04 (ex-items), which was inline with consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  5:21:02 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:56:53 PM
Cambior (AMEX:CBJ) $2.98 +1.7% Link .... halted .... Bloomberg reports that CBJ sold c$90 million ($70.8 million) of units to finance the acquisition of a 55.3% stake in Peru mining company Compania Minera Poderosa SA.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  4:43:14 PM
GE saying the slide in rev/profits in its energy business has bottomed out and is positioned to rebound in 2005.

This was probably the news that sparked the rumor earlier. Somebody heard "slide in revenue and profits" and tuned out the rest of the statement.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  4:33:03 PM
GE - I can't find any confirmation of the GE warning and shares are not moving in after hours trading. I suspect it was false.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:31:18 PM
General Electric (GE) $33.31 +0.57% .... $33.27 is last tick at 04:30:02

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:28:52 PM
Travelzoo (TZOO) $56.43 -20.5% Link .... was put behind bars today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  4:28:06 PM
Alert - GE warning This is unconfirmed but rumors coming fast now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:23:53 PM
Priceline.com (PCLN) $19.98 -0.74% Link .... higher at $21.26

IAC / Interactive (IACI) $20.80 -1.56% Link ... higher at $21.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:22:32 PM
Orbitz (ORBZ) $20.77 +1.56% Link ... jumps to $25.00 on news that Cendant (CD) $22.02 -0.04 Link is close to $1 billion deal to buy the online booking agent.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  4:21:22 PM
CD rumored to be buying Orbitz. ORBZ up +$5 in after hours

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  4:17:08 PM
SIRI saying its next generation satellite radios to be sold in Wal-Mart stores.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  4:15:46 PM
MSPD is warning

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  4:15:31 PM
Today's OEX candle had a larger real body and smaller shadows than I had anticipated going into the open this morning. It also formed just above the midline of the descending regression channel rather than at it, as I had believed it might. It did have both upper and lower shadows, indicative of indecision, but not much indecision. It was a bullish day, but one that parked many indices beneath next strong resistance.

The daily chart shows the possibility of an OEX H&S forming in the upper half of the descending regression channel, with only the right shoulder left to form. If that's what's going to happen, we could have another few days of congestion or consolidation while that right shoulder finishes forming. I'd look to the 535, the 50-dma at 536.23 and at the top of last week's congestion zone, or the converging 10- and 30-dma's to provide natural places for the top of the shoulder to form.

Late yesterday and early this morning, I suggested that conservative bearish traders might take profit either ahead of the 10:00 numbers or the test of 530. I suggested that others set account-appropriate stops above 532 or 534, depending on trading style. I noted late in the day, in my 15:30 post, the converge of major resistance and mentioned that level being the last-ditch appropriate stop even for those intending to be in longer-term swing-trade type plays. At the end of the day, the OEX rolled down beneath that resistance, but not far beneath it, and the ultimate outcome is still in question.

We're at a to-be-expected congestion zone. The OEX almost always pauses for a while at the midline of this descending regression channel as it heads either up or down, before it decides on next direction. With daily oscillators attempting to turn up again, we may be in for a period of difficult-to-trade consolidation while the oscillators turn up and relieve some oversold pressure. If those last-ditch bearish holdouts get stopped tomorrow morning, I'd look for a rollover opportunity at the right-shoulder level and that might be the appropriate bearish entry for others, too, although I'll want to take a look at chart and breadth indicators as the right-shoulder level is approached. Aggressive traders might have made new entries late Tuesday as the OEX stalled below 536. If so, I'd set a stop an account-appropriate amount above the 50-dma, currently at 536.23.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:14:12 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Day trade long for Intel (INTC) at $19.75, stop 19.68, targeting 19.95. This trade was held overnight.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  4:05:59 PM
We've had bearish MACD divergence with price since the moment I entered short @ 1109.90. Hopefully it will kick in tomorrow... holding the short overnight, currently down only .16 points. It is also possible SPX will continue higher to about 1130 after bouncing strongly off the 1100 area. There are competing factors favoring either scenario. The last two times I've held overnight I've been wrong. Maybe the third time will be the charm.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:04:55 PM
Intel (INTC) I'm showing a marked to the close at $19.68, but I didn't get an al_rt at QChart's stop al_rt. Bid is currently $19.72.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  4:02:40 PM
Buy program premium SPY $111.40, QQQ $34.57, DIA $101.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:59:14 PM
The OEX drops through the neckline of that miniature H&S at the top of its climb on the two-minute chart, but only barely.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:58:35 PM
Remember that the quarterly Tankan survey is released tonight in Japan, and that many have been speculating that it's going to show bad news. The Nikkei has declined eight straight days, the first time it's done that since late 2002. Logic says that it's due for a bounce, but higher oil and a devastating Tankan survey might say otherwise. Since I'm not in control of either of those, it's difficult to assess what may happen overnight, but just be aware that market-moving information may be released tonight.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:55:29 PM
Miniature H&S on the OEX's 2-minute chart, neckline at 534.20, downside target about 533.41 if confirmed, but it may not have time to confirm and reach that target today, even if it's going to do so. It's looking less likely the OEX can break above that gathered resistance depicted in my 15:20 post, though, unless it does it on a last-minute bout of short-covering. I wouldn't draw any great bullish conclusions from that, if it occurs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  3:54:03 PM
Bullish day trade hold overnight alert .... for Intel (INTC) $19.81 -0.55% .... will hold overnight. Ran quick DAILY Pivots for tomorrow and think it worth the overnight risk to hold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  3:45:08 PM
10-year Yield ($TNX.X) 4.012% .... daily pivot levels for tomorrow as follows.... 39.37, 39.74, Piv= 40.02 , 40.39, 40.67.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:41:33 PM
The OEX continues to find resistance from the lines shown on the chart linked to my 15:20 post. The OEX has sent shadows up above the red trendline, but closed 15-minute periods at that trendline.

Unless the OEX retreats toward 533, my scenario for the day (small-bodied candle, upper and lower shadows) is not going to play out, so it may have just been flat wrong, but we'll see what happens into the close. I'm never so wedded to a scenario that I can't see the potential for something different to happen and a breakout above the massed resistance depicted in my 15:20 chart would be something different.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  3:38:35 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.71 +4.69% .... crazy little pop from $14.50 last 5-minutes. Gets some volume.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:36:49 PM
Just because it's interesting, here's the NDX 382-minute chart I've been watching, since the NDX has seemed to trade in such close accordance to the 100/130-ema's on this chart: Link I have just been watching this for a few days, so wouldn't base trades on the information here, but I'd certainly look for possible resistance as those averages were approached.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:30:30 PM
The OEX still challenges that gathering resistance on my 15:20 post. Bulls want to see a 15-minute close above 535.15, while bears want to see a rollover at this converging resistance. If I look at the Keltner chart, I say that there will be a pullback, perhaps as low as 532.85-533.20 or so, but if I look at TRIN, I say a push above that resistance or a stall there.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  3:29:14 PM
I'm encouraged to see OI put play LLY down 1.14% and under performing the DRG drug index, which is up 1.26%.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  3:26:20 PM
I'm still kicking myself for not taking that bounce from $140. I know I mentioned it looked like an entry point either in the Monitor or in the watch list.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  3:25:17 PM
James CME is one of my fav stox

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  3:22:44 PM
Another new high for CME today at $160.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  3:22:35 PM
Deere Company (DE) $63.51 +3.4% .... in sympathy with CAT.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:20:41 PM
Here's what the OEX faces now: Link The red trendline here is an extension of the supporting trendline from late last week. The other resistance lines are Keltner lines. A breakout above these gathered resistance lines should be the last-ditch stop for die-hard holders of OEX bearish positions. For the aggressive among you who believe that the OEX is going to turn down again (TRIN does not support a market downturn right now), a roll down here might make an acceptable entry, but keep that possible scenario for the day in mind if you consider such an entry--with that scenario being for a small-bodied candle with (now) both upper and lower shadows. That would mean that the OEX would end the day somewhere near the opening, so not too much lower than the current position. Even if the OEX ends up today with the current tall white candle, we could see a period of consolidation before the OEX decides whether to head up through the top of the channel or roll down through the bottom. Trading could be difficult over the next couple of days.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  3:20:00 PM
I need to step away here and will be gone until the end of the session.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  3:19:33 PM
QQQ has broken above 34.58 and is testing the prior highs of the day. On the 60 min chart, this move is confirming a bullish stochastic divergence on a so far very weak 60 min cycle upphase. Monday's gap will be closed at 34.75, above which the bulls are going to be challenging the daily cycle downphase. If this 60 min cycle upphase gets some life on a break above 34.75, next resistance will be between 34.95 and 35.15. Above that level, the daily cycle downphase will be placed in doubt.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  3:18:25 PM
Looks like the laggard Dow has come back to life.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  3:18:00 PM
CAT is just now breaking up through resistance at $77.50 and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  3:17:21 PM
Dow-component Caterpillar (CAT) is surging in the last few minutes after raising its 2004 revenue outlook. Profits are expected to rise 80-85% over a year ago. Sales are said to be up 25-30% for the year.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:10:53 PM
The OEX looks vulnerable to a pullback to 533-533.60 unless it can produce a 15-minute close above 535.06.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  3:10:46 PM
The short cycle oscillators have resolved their chop to the upside but are just approaching overbought territory. This lines up with the current location of the 30 min and 60 min cycle channel resistances, both of which are lined up at 34.63 currently. These channels are somehow still flat, still not pointed higher, making that upper resistance look firmer than it otherwise would. Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  3:10:25 PM
MSTR has broken support at the $40.00 mark but still hasn't broken through the top of the gap from two weeks ago. This could be a bearish candidate if it breaks $39.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  3:09:09 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  3:09:05 PM
We're really pushing the upper limits for this move and are only underwater by -0.40 pts on the short play. Short covering and Window Dressing could give the market another goose to the upside... it all depends on the the big boys and how far they want to push it. SPX just printed another sell signal @ 1110.60 but you would have to consider this a trending move until we see some impulsive action to the downside and that hasn't happened (yet).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:07:12 PM
The OEX still tests that trendline extended from support late last week.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  3:06:57 PM
The short-squeeze (at least I think it was a short-squeeze) in TZOO is letting up a bit. The stock is down 15.7% to $59.88.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  3:03:27 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  3:02:03 PM
The OEX tests a slightly ascending trendline that is an extension of the trendline that had supported the OEX from Thursday afternoon through Friday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:55:23 PM
Headlines:

2:52pm NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT ANOTHER FRESH RECORD HIGH IN NY

2:53pm NOV CRUDE UP 26C TO CLOSE AT $49.90 AFTER $50.47 HIGH

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  2:55:05 PM
SPX has just printed a sell signal @ 1109.50... I jumped in early because I saw the natural resistance point @ 1110.00. Whether this will play out in our favor or not is still very much up in the air. We have a strong reversal off the 1100 area and TRIN is @ .89... not the best conditions for a short but it was one of those "gut" reactions Linda refers to occasionally. A MACD bearish cross would really help the short scenario right here. Ouch! there's another gap to the upside. Jim's Window Dressing kicking in? I gave this one plenty of room on purpose. SPX "should" roll over before 1112.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:53:58 PM
Session high for ES and YM futures. QQQ is putting in a higher wavelet low. Bulls need to get above 34.58 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  2:50:37 PM
Since Friday at midday, the TRAN has zoomed from the bottom of its five-minute Keltner channels all the way to the top Friday afternoon, down to the bottom again Monday morning and then back to the top again now. It's now facing top channel resistance at 3202.90. Market bears want to see continued five-minute closes beneath that line while bulls want to see the opposite.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:46:22 PM
34.48 QQQ is now acting as support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  2:45:56 PM
The SPX now challenges its converging 30- and 100-dma's, with those averages at 1110.68 and 1109.05, respectively, and with the SPX at 1109.53. If it's going to be turned back, this would be a natural place from which it might be turned back.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:42:45 PM
Volume is picking up slightly but remains very light. The current bounce failed at 34.53, one cent below the 11:55AM high for QQQ. I'm amazed at how sharp the support and resistance lines are becoming- looks like the footprints of trading 'bots to me.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  2:42:08 PM
I mentioned yesterday that those who intended a longer-term, swing-trade-type OEX bearish play might consider setting account-appropriate stops above 532 or 534. The OEX now comes up to test the extension of the trendline that had supported the OEX from about midday on Thursday through to Friday's close. If you haven't stopped out of a swing-trade-type bearish play yet, you might watch that trendline, now at about 534.60, to see if it holds as resistance. It ascends slightly.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  2:40:29 PM
Juniper Networks (JNPR) is following larger rival CSCO lower. Shares of JNPR are now down 4.7% and cracking support at $24.00 and its simple 200-dma. Volume has been pretty strong today after JNPR was downgraded this morning.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  2:37:56 PM
Go short now @ 1009.90, stop 1112.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  2:37:49 PM
TRIN 0.93

VIX.X 13.98

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  2:36:18 PM
Day trade long alert .. for Intel (INTC) $19.76 here, stop $19.68, target $19.95.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  2:35:50 PM
I'm noticing a lot of strength in the chemicals industry. These stocks have been strongly recently and all have bullish P&F charts: APD, DOW, FMC, PRX, ROH

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  2:35:12 PM
The OEX broke above the neckline of that inverse H&S. The upside target should be near 536.50, just above the top of last week's consolidation zone.

The OEX tests the Keltner channel line that has held it back through several days, at 533.87, with the OEX now above that but needing to see a seven-minute close above it to consider a breakout toward 536 in progress on that basis.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:34:23 PM
QQQ has broken 34.47 resistance, with the session high now 9 cents away. A move above 34.58 will break the 30 min candle descending resistance line and set up a retest of yesterday's high at 34.74.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  2:31:42 PM
Stopped out @ 1108.61, -1

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:27:37 PM
Volume has trailed off sufficiently to stall the short cycle oscillators, with the wavelet stuck on a whipsaw to the upside but not following through. The key range here is between 34.35 and 34.47 QQQ.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  2:25:19 PM
CCI is poised to print a sell signal... all we need is for MACD to cross back down but with TRIN @ .98 it doesn't look promising. Raising the stop to 1108.61 may give us enough room to stay alive if there is going to be another leg down.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:23:08 PM
Headline:

2:22pm TREASURY SEC. SNOW: U.S.ECONOMY TO CONT. ON GOOD PATH

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  2:21:56 PM
Raise stops to 1108.61 on the short play...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  2:21:23 PM
The OEX tests one possible neckline version for a potential inverse form H&S on its five-minute and fifteen-minute charts. The right shoulder is blunted, but there was bullish divergence as the head was formed. Right now, though, resistance still looks stronger than support on the short-term Keltner charts, so it looks as if it will be difficult for the OEX to confirm that inverse H&S. The bulls are trying, but it's far from certain they'll succeed. I'm wondering what will happen when Nymex crude closes for the regular session.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  2:19:34 PM
I was afraid of that... almost went long on the last dip but held out for a breakdown. Looks like we'll be stopped out break even very soon now.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  2:14:53 PM
The only major earnings for tonight is SLR. Est +0.04 and $3.12 billion in revenue.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:13:54 PM
QQQ update at this Link . Trendline support connecting today's lows is at 34.35.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  2:12:43 PM
stepping outside for some fresh air...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  2:11:42 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:09:47 PM
Just as we saw last week, the 30 min cycle oscillators are compressing into a sideways squiggle, with a very weak 60 min cycle upphase in the process of stalling. The channels are already pointed south, and QQQ looks to be less than 10 cents away from a new plunge. This is a key area here. A sustained move to or below the 34.30 level for 10 minutes or longer should be enough to do it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:07:28 PM
QQQ chart update at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  2:05:52 PM
Still no OEX close above the seven-minute Keltner lines that have been holding it back. OEX bears now want to see the OEX move below 532.15 to confirm the lower high. Instead, it's trying to move up again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  2:05:24 PM
34.35 QQQ support got stretched to 34.31 on the last try. But the lower high suggests that we should get our downside break this time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  2:01:34 PM
Trader e-mail regarding Taser Intl (TASR) $36.15 -5.76% .... Jeff: Universal Guardian (BB:UGHO) $1.88 +18.6% just introduced a multi-shot taser for less money. Probably shorting TASR and buying UGHO. Finally some competition in the arena.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:59:49 PM
There has been a lot of information about an increase in seismic activity on Mount St. Helen's, too, over the last few days.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  1:59:37 PM
Citigroup (C) is bouncing from support at $43.00 today. Short-term oscillators like the RSI and stochastics are suggesting a possible reversal. Will it see any follow through?

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  1:57:11 PM
The quake was in Parkfield, Ca... the most seismically active and predictable area of the state. There is a geological feature down there called the "Parkfield Bulge" and it bristles with seismic instruments. They will have a lot of homework to do over the next month or so.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  1:55:36 PM
Metlife reaffirmed their forecast and nearly doubled their dividend.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  1:52:37 PM
The current wavelet bounce has yet to convert the short cycle oscillators from their downphase, but a print above 34.48 would be a good start. A failure below that level, a lower high, will reinforce the downphase.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  1:51:18 PM
Bulls may want to keep an eye on Lockheed Martin (LMT). If shares can break out over $55.50 I'd consider potential longs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  1:51:00 PM
Good news, Mark. Nothing beats local information.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  1:48:31 PM
I didn't feel a thing Jonathan, and I'm 60 miles South of San Francisco.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:45:58 PM
The OEX just broke above a descending regression channel that it had been forming since about 12:15, a possible bull flag. It's now testing, once again, that Keltner resistance that has been turning it back on the 7-minute chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  1:40:43 PM
Ticker headlines:

1:37pm QUAKE CENTER ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN FRANCISCO

1:38pm QUAKE INITIALLY MEASURED AT 5.8 ON RICHTER SCALE

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:38:09 PM
OEX bears should keep that potential inverse H&S on the intraday charts in mind as the OEX sinks. Bears want to see a new low to undo the potential of that inverse H&S.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:34:33 PM
Yes, Marc, the TRAN is maddening, but it often is, isn't it? It confirmed a double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart by moving above the peak between the two equal bottoms, but now it's back slightly below the confirmation level again. This thing tends to overrun targets the way that the semis used to do, so you can't always trust a confirmation. A look at the daily chart (or 390-minute if you're a QCharts user) shows a possible "b" distribution pattern forming just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline. I'm sure you know all about these formations, Marc, but newer readers may not. Traditionally these break to the downside (hence the "distribution" in their name), but lately, movements out of these have been anything but traditional, as Mark Davis has been noting on some charts. Meanwhile, the TRAN is stuck in the bulb of the "b," the rectangular congestion zone, and so I'm taking a wait-and-see approach as to what it's showing us. I still in favor of tradition, so would give the slight nod to a probable downside break, especially with what's happening with fuel costs, but I'm not going to count my downside breaks before they happen, and I'll be just as glad for the economy if the TRAN signals that it can do just fine with $50.00/barrel oil!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  1:32:15 PM
Look for cycle channel support at 34.25 QQQ. A break below that targets stronger support at 34.10. 34.35 is putting up a fight, however.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  1:30:47 PM
Watching to go long again...
Still short from 1107.61

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  1:29:54 PM
Exiting long @ 1105.48, +3

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  1:29:14 PM
Downside break commencing...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:27:40 PM
The OEX is poised between 532.37 Keltner support and 533.18-533.19 Keltner resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  1:27:35 PM
Gold is back up to 414, HUI +3.16% and XAU +3.15%, near their respective session highs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  1:24:20 PM
The short cycle oscillators are rolling over, right on the cust of a new short cycle downphase for QQQ. A break below 34.38 should do it, but the prior low at 34.35 should seal the deal.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  1:20:38 PM
MACD crossed back down while I was typing that last post. CCI is set up for a buy signal... all we need is for MACD to cross back up.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  1:18:08 PM
MACD has crossed back up on the 1-min chart and aborted the sell signal. This happened at about 1106.50. Since then there have been a couple of minor bullish kisses, increasing the odds that we are headed higher, but not by much. As Marc said, it's about a coin toss, although I'd give a slight edge to the upside unless we see a sharp downturn. We have over an hour of sideways action now so some energy is being stored for the next move. It's tempting to exit the short early but with only 1/2 point to be gained I'd rather leave it in place. We're sitting on +5 no matter what happens so that's good enough for now. I'd still like to see a drop to 1105 and an reversal higher so we could book +2 on the short and let the long ride. Even better would be a complete breakdown, stopping us out +2 on the long and letting the short ride from 1107.61, but at this point that seems like the lower odds scenario. I keep thinking about Jim's Window Dressing commentary. In addition to that remember my post from early yesterday morning citing the possibility of about a +20 point rally before reversing lower. This has happened at the last two lower highs on the SPX daily chart... a -20 to -30 point decline off the highs before reversing higher by approximately the same amount. That would take us right back to SPX 1130 if it played out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:17:57 PM
The TRAN just dropped heavily all the way back to a 50% retracement of the steep decline off Friday's high, without ever getting any closer to 3200 than it had been in my previous TRAN-related post.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:16:38 PM
Still no seven-minute OEX close above the Keltner lines that stopped it yesterday. If the OEX should pull back now, readers should keep that inverse H&S possibility in mind. (See my 12:25 post.) Be aware of the possibility that the OEX could steady near 532 and turn up again. For now, the OEX tests support near 532.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:12:50 PM
Is it tomorrow's GDP, do you think, that's slowing everything down, or will that be market moving since it's a final number and we've already seen the estimates? (Heh, Jim?) Tomorrow also sees the Nikkei-moving Tankan quarterly survey, I believe, and there's much fear that it's going to be lower than had been previously expected. In Japan, they've been experiencing end-of-half selling instead of end-of-half buying.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  1:08:49 PM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart at this Link . Volume has dried up here. A failure will set up a small head and shoulders above 34.38, while a break through 34.54 could set off short covering on a move past 35.58.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  1:07:35 PM
Why have I started talking about the OEX's seven-minute Keltner charts rather than five-minute ones? I noticed that the OEX is trading more in accordance with the Keltner lines on that time interval in the recent past. That may change, but that's what's happening now. Here's the seven-minute chart: Link Note the way that the OEX is finding support on the bottom purple line and finding resistance at the midline-level, the teal-colored line? Now here's the five-minute chart: Link Note that there's a bit more overrunning of these levels? I'll switch again if I find that the OEX has again returned to a period when it shows more relevance to the five-minute channels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  1:04:58 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:58:04 PM
The TRAN certainly looks as if it's headed up for a test of 3200-3202, doesn't it, but it needs to maintain levels above a 61.8% retracement of the steep decline off Friday's high, with that level near 3193.50. The TRAN is at 3195.19 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:57:39 PM
Bulls are trying to put in a higher wavelet low here for QQQ at 34.43. Bears need to see south of 34.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  12:55:43 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

Noted Treasury YIELD weekly Pivots and today's trade. Thinking is that if we're going to break morning highs in equities, may need to see Treasury yields above weekly pivots.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:55:29 PM
The most disconcerting issue to me in the oil story is the fragility of the existing infrastructure. Pipelines spanning thousands of unpoliced kilometers deliver oil from remote regions. A documentary I saw discussed the incredible pressure to which these pipes are subjected, and the image I retained was of a lake of oil caused by a small hole less than half an inch in diameter. In my opinion, for what little it's worth, this is the most serious threat posed by terrorism.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:55:14 PM
Was that Santa, Sanat or Satan Marc? (too late, you already caught it)

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:54:28 PM
The Russell is leading the charge today with the Dow and TRAN running neck and neck for second (in lock step I might add).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:53:11 PM
Note that the article to which I referred in my 12:46 post, produced or updated in June, said 15 million barrels "in the future."

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:51:36 PM
Dear Santa,
Please don't let the market stop me out by a few pennies again on my short play and then head sharply lower.
Thanks,
Markie

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  12:51:26 PM
James, There was a global oil engineer on CNBC this morning and he did not believe they could pump 11 million much less 15 million. He said any excess production from Saudi could be in heavy oil which is less desirable and there is no refinery available that could break it down into useable products. They are all running at full capacity. He thought they were bluffing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:51:15 PM
Still no seven-minute OEX close above the Keltner lines that stopped it yesterday. The 60-minute chart, however, shows the OEX maintaining precarious support above the Keltner lines that had been stopping it since 9/22, so this may be a particularly important 60-minute period. Bulls want to see that support hold or else this could be just a fake-out move. I expected a small-bodied OEX daily candle with a long upper or lower shadow or both, so I'm not surprised by the type of trading action we've seen so far. I hoped that candle to form just a jot lower, along the midline of the descending regression channel and not above it, however, but I was also wary of the 530-ish support. The day isn't over yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:49:48 PM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart at this Link . A failure to break above the prior 35.54 high will confirm what appears to be a short cycle rollover shaping up. GE is printing a session high as I type, up .72% for the session.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:47:46 PM
Linda, I just read the same thing. 15 million barrels a day is what the Saudi's say they can pump but there are a lot of skeptics out there that don't believe it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  12:47:30 PM
Yield curve steepening should be beneficial to equities....

5-year up 1.4 bp, 10-year up 3.2 bp, 30-year up 4.1 bp.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:46:46 PM
James, in reference to Saudi Production Capacity: According to this document produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (under the DOE?), Saudi Arabia "claims that is is 'easily capable' of producing up to 15 million bbl/d in the future and maintaining that production level for 50 years": Link Do I sense some skepticism in the word choice claims?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:44:50 PM
Session low for 10-yr notes here, with TNX up 2.7 bps at 4.024%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:42:07 PM
James, in reponse to your question about Saudi oil, I don't know their maximum capacity. However, all articles and analyst comments I've been seeing indicate that there is very little excess capacity overall, and that price is particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions for that very reason.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:41:53 PM
I just read another article about the expiring lock up periods for Google (GOOG)'s insiders. We've outlined this before.

GOOG IPO'd with 22.5 million shares.

On September 3rd another 4.6 million shares hit the market.

The next expirations will be:
39.1 million shares on November 17th.
24.9 million shares on December 17th.
24.9 million shares on January 16th.

That's a lot of new stock for the market to absorb. Actually that's almost 4 times the amount of shares that came out in the IPO.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:41:38 PM
I'd love to see a drop to the SPX 1105 area and then a reversal back up

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  12:41:04 PM
Yukos has been forced to halt oil shipments to another customer

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:38:58 PM
The TRAN is challenging the 61.8% retracement of the steep decline off Friday's high as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:38:47 PM
Lower stop on short to 1107.61 and break even
Still long from 1102.58, stop 1104.58... +5 in the bag no matter what happens

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:38:15 PM
Still no OEX seven-minute close above the Keltner channel lines that stopped the OEX yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  12:34:07 PM
VIX.X 14.19 -2.94% ... updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

TRIN at 1.06 here.

QQQ coiling between WEEKLY S1 and DAILY Pivot.

 
 
  Keene Little   9/28/200,  12:33:29 PM
Sorry Mark, I didn't see your question (12:23). The move off the LOD looks like an a-b-c followed by another a-b-c with an x-wave between them--this is a little more complex corrective pattern. It could be the end of this leg up and we should get a pullback. Because the pattern is so far looking corrective to the upside, it might be all of the bounce or it could be just the beginning of a longer sideways/up correction. This is likely to be a difficult time to trade until this clears up (due to all the potential corrective, quick turns).

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:33:22 PM
Just a question for the group...

The Saudi oil minister said they were increasing production from 9.5 million to 11.0 million barrels a day. I was under the impression that Saudi's maximum production was about 11.0 million/day. Does anyone have any knowledge or statistics on this?

Wouldn't that mean they are tapped out with no remaining surplus capacity? If this is true then the odds of sudden oil price shocks in our future just spiked higher didn't they? Especially with the Russian Yukos drama still unfolding.

Actually the last data I saw put Saudi Arabia's maximum production at 10.5 million a day but this is obviously out of date.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:31:10 PM
The TRAN broke through to a new five-minute high. At about 3193.50, it will test the 61.8% retracement of the steep decline off Friday's high. The TRAN is at 3191.82 as I type. The TRAN has a habit of overrunning targets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:29:30 PM
Still no seven-minute close above the Keltner lines that stopped the OEX yesterday, but the OEX is trying again as I type. Unless the OEX is quickly slapped back, however, there will be a 60-minute close above the converging Keltner lines that have held it back since 9/22, a change in trend that suggests a climb toward 534-535. I've had a scenario in mind that sees some choppy trading that produces long shadows and a small-bodied candle for today, so be careful with any position as there could fail to be the suggested follow-through.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:29:24 PM
Short @ 1107.61, stop 1108.61... we just locked in +5

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:26:46 PM
James, for the past month I've been experimenting with different grades of chocolate. I find the highest purity, 86% cocoa, too bitter to really enjoy though the 72% stuff is really good.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:25:46 PM
Fib levels bracketing the rally off the August low have worked fairly well in watching the OEX. This morning, the OEX bounced off the 61.8% retracement of that rally, as I had begun warning yesterday and then again this morning that it might do. Now bears want to see the 50% retracement hold, with that at 533.595, although historical resistance is nearer 534. There's danger now of seeing a reverse H&S attempt to build with a neckline between 533.50-534. If so, we should see a pullback back to 532 and then perhaps a steadying or an attempt to rise from there, with the outcome of that attempted H&S, if it does form, telling us whether bulls have managed any strength yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:25:11 PM
QQQ 2-day update at this Link . The ongoing daily cycle downphase suggests that any bounce here should fail at a lower high within the pattern of lower daily highs and lows. The 30 min cycle is no longer descending, but it's having a tough time turning up for a new upphase, another confirmation of the overriding weakness. Bulls have failed to even reach 35.58 for its retest, and if they can print south of 34.40, the current short cycle upphase driving the bounce so far will be in trouble.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:23:52 PM
One reader just told me that her daughter's Oncologist recently mentioned that dark chocolate has been found helpful in increasing platelets (in your blood) as well.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:23:49 PM
Keene is that a 5-wave move off LOD on the SPX 1-min chart?

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:22:20 PM
B-bands are rapidly converging in the SPX 1107 area. We should have our answer soon as to whether it's going to break 1108 or drop back a bit further.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:22:15 PM
Earlier I mentioned that GOOG was started with a "buy" by WR Hambrecht. Well, I missed a few comments.

GOOG was started with an "over weight" by JPMorgan, started with an "out perform" by Thomas Weisel, and started with an "over weight" by Morgan Stanley this morning as well.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:20:08 PM
CNBC talking about IMCL. Yesterday the stock closed on the verge of another major breakdown under $49. Yet today the stock is up 5.7% to $51.92 after being upgraded to an "out perform" this morning.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:19:46 PM
Today's foggy trading is starting to clear up a bit. Above SPX 1108 I will be looking for possible concurrent short positions to lock in gains on the long play. This bounce from the 1100 area could last for several days, 1100 being such an obvious bounce point that traders jumped in early with long plays. My nightmare scenario is SPX 1107.88 was HOD and we missed the short but with TRIN @ 1.04 and the (so far) shallow pullback I'm thinking we are going to bank some profits on the long. SPX did print a sell signal @ 1106.95 but I decided to pass for the time being. The sell signal (1-min chart) has not aborted yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:19:00 PM
Wonder what they add to their chocolate, James!

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:16:38 PM
I think that RMCF and AGIX should get together and do some more research.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:16:23 PM
No OEX seven-minute close above the Keltner lines that held it back Friday.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:16:07 PM
I always knew there was a reason I love those dark-chocolate Hershey's kisses.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:15:48 PM
Last night I just read of an easier way to improve your arteries and you'll never guess what it is....

... evidently there is research that suggests small amounts of dark chocolate help soften and improve the elasticity of your arterial walls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:15:45 PM
The TRAN tests that descending trendline off yesterday's 1:00 five-minute high.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:14:06 PM
AtheroGenics (AGIX) is up 60% to $37.07 after announcing positive results from its heart drug trial. AGIX announced that its Phase II clinical trials to treat ahterosclerosis, a hardening of the arterial walls, was encouraging. The company is progressing toward Phase III trials.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:12:32 PM
Nymex crude currently up .1 at 49.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:11:20 PM
If the NDX continues to rise, I'll be watching these 100/130-ema's for possible resistance: Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:10:40 PM
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) is up 18.4% to $13.70 after reporting earnings today that increased 47.6% over the year ago period. RMCF also raised its full year numbers by another 25-30%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:08:28 PM
The OEX is pushing above the converging red and black Keltner lines displayed on the 60-minute chart linked to my 10:37 post. If the OEX can close this 60-minute period above those lines, it will find resistance somewhat thinned, with next resistance at 534.71 on that chart, near the bottom of the several-day consolidation band from last week. The OEX is currently dealing with resistance on the seven-minute chart that stopped it Friday, with bears wanting to see a seven-minute close beneath the Keltner lines currently at 533.56. We'll get that seven-minute test before we know how the 60-minute one will turn out, as there are still 22 minutes left in the current 60-minute period.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:07:07 PM
Bob Pisani talking about metals... and I notice that Phelps Dodge (PD) is up another 3% to $92.09 - a new all-time high. Bob says that the metal copper is near all-time highs near $1.38 a lb.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  12:06:00 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  12:02:14 PM
At about 3187, the TRAN faces a descending trendline that formed off the 1:00 high yesterday. The TRAN is at 3184.87 as I type, having reached 3185.89 a few moments ago.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  12:02:10 PM
There is no reaction in shares of biotech stock DNA after the company raised its stock buy back program by an additional $1 billion (and/or from 25 million shares to 50 million shares). DNA is down 10 cents to $51.57.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  12:01:07 PM
The pullback came just 12 cents shy of SPX 1108, right on cue.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  12:00:01 PM
Next stop is 30 min channel resistance and confluence at 34.58, above which 34.75 is next critical support. The 30 min cycle is flattened, and if price doesn't fall back within the next 10 minutes, we'll it begin to slope upward in a new 30 min cycle upphase. Channel support has stabilized at 34.20.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  11:58:07 AM
Raise stop on long play to 1104.58, locking in +2
Watch the 1108 area closely for a pullback/rollover

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  11:56:52 AM
Aetna (AET) is breaking out to new highs over resistance near $97.00. The next stop is likely the $100 mark.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  11:55:52 AM
Reader Question about Nested Keltner Channels on eSignal: Looking back at an old article of yours, I noticed that you were using eSignal. Do you still use it and how did you solve the difficulty in changing parameters for Keltner Channels since eSignal doesn't offer that one in their basic studies but instead it's part of their library where you apparently need a working knowledge of JavaScript in order to make changes.

Response: I occasionally use eSignal for OIN articles, but don't use it on a regular basis. I was surprised, too, to find that eSignal doesn't allow for manipulation of Keltner ranges and multipliers the way that QCharts does, but it can be managed, and you don't need to be a master programmer. One great feature of eSignal is the ability to add your own formulae to the charts. Although I did quite well in programming classes back in ancient history, my last classes were in Basic and FORTRAN, if that gives you any idea how long ago those classes were. I might as well have been using the old punch cards. However, even I managed to manipulate Keltner channels to my satisfaction. Here's what I remember doing, to the best of my memory. First, those with eSignal can sign in and access this page: Link Once there, you'll have to type in "Keltner" and you should get a page with four or five different offerings of Keltner channel codes. Because the formulae that you'll find on that page are copyrighted, I can't reproduce them here, but I can show you bits and pieces as copyright law allows for quotations as long as they're not substantial. Go to the third formula on that page, as I believe that was the easiest one to manipulate.

It's easy to change the color of the lines, for example. To change the color of the upper Keltner channel line, for example, you'd look for this line and change the listed "blue" to another color:

setDefaultBarFgColor(Color.blue, 0); // upper

To change the average upon which a particular Keltner channel is based, the basis line, you'd scroll down again to the section dealing with nInputLength, and change that length from the specified 20 to whatever you prefer. You'll have to change it in two places. To change the range, called multiplier on QCharts, you'd scroll down a little further and change the NRangeFactor in the two places it needs to be changed.

Then you're done. Save the whole code by whatever name you want, realizing that you'll have to reproduce this effort three times and save it by three different names to get the three different Keltner channels you want to superimpose on the same page. I used the easy-to-find "large channels," "middle-sized channels," and "small channels." Import each saved code into the library on your eSignal page and you're ready to click on it the next time you want to add the superimposed three Keltner setups.

This is what I remember doing. I hope I haven't missed a step. The settings I use most often are a length of 9 and multiplier (range) of 1.4 for the smallest Keltner channel, a length of 45 and multiplier of 3 for the middle-sized one, and length of 120 and multiplier of 7.2 for the largest one. I varied those somewhat for my article on Keltner Channels, found at this Link . Try each variation or set up your own. Hope this works for you eSignal users.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  11:55:29 AM
Don't forget the new $50 bill goes into circulation today. image: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  11:55:20 AM
The buy signal that showed first on the 1-min chart has now printed on the 5,10 and 15-charts, adding validity. It's just about to hit the 30-min chart... just a little higher and we'll get it. Taking out SPX 1107 is probably what is required but that would be pretty bullish all things considered. 1107 would also be a place I would look to start protecting profits on the long play by raising stops and/or looking for possible short entries to lock in profits on the long.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:54:01 AM
New session low for ten year bonds with ZNZ4 at 113.375 and TNX up 1 bp to 4.007%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:50:56 AM
QQQ is now above 7200-tick SMA resistance. There's confluence resistance to 34.50, following which 34.58 is in play. However, the symmetry of the pattern of lower highs over the past 2 days in now being tested. A break above 35.58 will violate it if it occurs.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  11:47:48 AM
Ballard Power Systems (BLDP is up 12.5% to $7.00 on big volume after announcing that the "first production vehicles powered with Ballard® fuel cells and built by Ford Motor Company for customer use under the U.S. Department of Energy demonstration program were unveiled in Detroit today." (source: BLDP press release)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:46:11 AM
Session high for YM futures and low for ZN 10-yr treasury bond futures. QQQ has gapped back up to 34.46. Meanwhile, gold is holding at 413.20, with HUI now up 3.1% at 222.69 and XAU +3.1% at 99.71.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  11:45:18 AM
Human Genome Sciences Inc (HGSI) is down 8.5% to $11.30 and breaking down through its simple and exponential 200-dma's after announcing last night the company would see $200 million in convertible notes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  11:44:17 AM
Treasuries reversing gains .... 5-year yield ($FVX.X) down 1.5 bp here, 10-year ($TNX.X) up 0.2 bp at 3.999% and 30-year ($TYX.X) up 1.6 bp at 4.789%.

 
 
  James Brown   9/28/200,  11:43:05 AM
Google (GOOG) is gapping higher today and is up 3.3% to $122.24 after WR Hambrecht started coverage with a "buy" rating and a $140 target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  11:34:58 AM
The TRAN bounced from just a tad above yesterday's low, a point at which a bounce might have been automatic. Market bears want to see the TRAN roll over from a lower five-minute high, with the previous one at 3189.14 while market bulls want the opposite. As I type, the TRAN is at 3182.51. With the speed with which the TRAN can move, that test could be soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:32:01 AM
Correction- my 11:29:15 should read "below the prior low of 34.25."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:31:27 AM
Nymex crude 49.90 here, +.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:29:15 AM
Bears need to get the QQQ below the prior low of 35.35.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:24:41 AM
QQQ's still chewing on the 7200-tick SMA from below.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  11:22:19 AM
The TRAN tests 3180 again, at 3180.55 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  11:21:15 AM
The SPX bounced from its 50-dma this morning, but the converging 30- and 100-dma's are above at 1110.54 and 1109, respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  11:19:02 AM
The five-minute OEX chart now shows a possibility that the OEX could move up toward 532.88. Bears don't want to see a five-minute close above the Keltner line currently at that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  11:16:13 AM
TRIN is dropping.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  11:15:46 AM
Leaving for an errand... back in 30 min or so

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  11:14:58 AM
Raise stop on SPX long to 1102.58 and break even
We are up +2 on this one and if we give it all back I don't want to be long

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:14:03 AM
QQQ just bounced from a higher low at 35.35, breaking above the prior high of 34.40 now. Look for 34.46 7200-tick SMA resistance next.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  11:05:09 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:02:54 AM
Nymex crude now +.20 at 49.85, +.4% for the day and below the 50.40 high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  11:01:58 AM
34.40 QQQ was yesterday's and this morning's double bottom support (until it broke) and it's acting as resistance here. If bulls can get over 7200-tick SMA resistance at 34.46, the short cycle oscillator will begin to turn back up and there will be a decent shot at a retest of 35.58 QQQ resistance. That 35.58 level is now also 30 min cycle channel resistance. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:59:02 AM
Experienced traders need not read this post, but for those new to trading, here's something about the lessons learned during Spring, 2003: The trend is your friend. Markets that are overbought can continue climbing into the stratosphere. Twitches in stochs and RSI may indicate nothing more than consolidation, although MACD tends to be more reliable in a trending market. Resistance may be nothing more than a pause point. That's information we all know by heart as technical traders, but it was driven home sharply during that time. The same can happen in reverse, as the Nikkei's daily chart shows: Link Note that the Nikkei not only fell beneath supposed strong support at 11,000, but gapped beneath it. It's trying to steady now near supposed 10,750 support, sinking below that today but then springing back up to close at 10,816. (Note that stockcharts.com has not yet included today's candle, another red candle continuing the decline.) So while I'm nervous about the possibility of a bounce, I'm aware of the possibility that the trend (down in this case) can continue longer than anyone thinks possible and can continue despite the way oscillators may line up.

Now that I've discounted all possible chart information (grin), the OEX tries to rise from 15-minute Keltner support, but so far continues fifteen-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 531.45, much less the one at 533.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:56:54 AM
Stopped out of short play @ 1103.59, -1

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:56:22 AM
SPX printed a buy signal @ 1102.50. I took it because of the close proximity to round number support @ SPX 1100. It may be a countertrend play but there would have to be a real breakdown for 1100 to crack.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:55:26 AM
10:52 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:53:03 AM
The 30 min cycle channel downphase should continue so long as QQQ remains below 34.42-.44. Descending 7200-tick SMA resistance is at 34.45 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:48:56 AM
Bonds are weakening here, with a possible head and shoulders shaping up on the intraday ZN chart. TNX is down 1.7 bps at 3.98% currently.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:48:13 AM
Long @ 1102.58, stop 1101.58

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:46:35 AM
Breakdown signal on the OEX five-minute Keltner charts. Bears want to see continued five-minute closes beneath 530.94, and would take them below 531.49, but would prefer them beneath 530.44.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:44:24 AM
The 30 and 60 min cycle channels continue to point lower. I don't see any compelling support until the 34.10 QQQ level. 30 min cycle channel support is in play at 34.25, but given the synchronous daily, 60 min and 30 min downphases, I'm not placing much confidence in it. 34.10 saw a number of intraday bottoms prior to the runup earlier this month. That level should be good for at least short term support on any test from here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:43:58 AM
Those in a bearish OEX trade from a breakdown below the 50% retracement of the August rally at 533.595 might have already closed out plays if they were intended for a daytrade only. Those who haven't yet closed out trades should have profit-protecting plans in place now as 529-530 is tested. Some charts or configurations show a potential for downside to 525-527 before a many-point bounce, and a drop now and then bounce back to 530-531 would fit one possible scenario for the day, but there's a possibility that strong support could kick in any time now. I'd hold if I were in a play meant to be several days or weeks, but I'd sure be following the OEX lower with my stops if I intended to close out a play today. The OEX is currently testing a 61.8% retracement of that rally, and that's another potential bounce point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:41:43 AM
NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) $34.27 -0.66% .... edges below its 50-day SMA ($34.31).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:40:48 AM
Intel (INTC) $19.68 -1.20% .... 52-week low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:39:13 AM
Next support is at 34.25 QQQ. Gold is rising, back above 414 at 414.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:38:53 AM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 400.17 -0.7% .... falls back below its rising 21-day SMA (402.32) for first time since breaking above at 375 on August 16.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:38:51 AM
Short @ 1102.59, stop 1103.59

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:37:57 AM
Here's what I'm seeing on an OEX 60-minute chart, suggesting that the OEX could be headed toward 529, perhaps interrupted by bounces up toward 532.50, and that bearish traders might be particularly careful near 529: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:35:56 AM
Except for the ones stopped out by 10 cents Keene... Aaargh!

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:34:25 AM
Stopped out of short @ 1103.36, -2

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:33:32 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $36.62 -4.53% .... negative break lower this morning at $37.37. Only news I find is company is one of several to present at first "Homeland Security Stocks Online Investor Conference to be held on October 20, 2004. Other's listed at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:28:50 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:28:37 AM
The SOX does still maintain the possibility of forming an inverse H&S, though, a possibility that I first noted in my 9/15 Wrap. A fall below 360 would invalidate that possibility, of course.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:28:16 AM
We've been stopped out by pennies 3 times today. Hopefully we've used up all our bad luck for a while. SPX printed a buy signal @ 1104.40... unfortunately I looked a the TRIN and hesitated. It only took 4 minutes to lose a point to the upside and we entered @ 1105.36. The buy signal is trying to abort right now with a MACD cross. If we don't bounce pretty soon I may bail early on the long.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:27:05 AM
Gold has drifted slightly lower, now up 2.50 to 413.20. HUI is holding its gains, up 2.44% at 221.28.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:26:41 AM
If the SOX should bounce today, something that isn't happening currently, I'll be watching the 20-dma, currently at 380.04. Since July, the SOX found resistance at the 20-dma before finally climbing back above it in mid-September. Throughout mid-September, the SOX found support at that average before slipping back below it yesterday: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:22:34 AM
A huge sell candle has just sprung up, 2.5M shares within 100 ticks, with the overbought wavelet oscillator just beginning to roll over. This is the 4th lower high on the 2-day QQQ chart. A break above 34.58 would invalidate that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:22:26 AM
That 15-minute OEX Keltner support, down to 530.93, is still trying to firm, but the OEX is mostly finding resistance at the Keltner line currently at 531.97, at least on 15-minute closes. That needs to change on a consistent basis before a bounce can get underway. Next resistance on the 15-minute chart converges just above 533.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:15:22 AM
Long @ 1105.36, stop 1103.36

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:13:49 AM
A wavelet upphase is trying to kick off here- 34.48-.50 QQQ is weak resistance here on the way to 34.58.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:13:34 AM
Stopped out of short @ 1105.49, -1

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:12:54 AM
The Fed announced a 3.25B 3-day repo, which results in a net 2B drain against the 5.25B expiring today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:10:48 AM
The current short cycle rollover commenced on a failure at 34.58 QQQ. That was a significant level yesterday, and the current failure and drop moves key resistance down from 34.75 to 34.58 today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  10:08:53 AM
Back just in time to see QQQ testing 34.40 support, with a spike as low as 34.36. Note that the short cycles were in a weak upphase before this dump, and are only now beginning as downphase with plenty of room to run for those oscillators. 30 min channel support is down to the 127.2% retracement off yesterday's low at 34.31 with next confluence at 34.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:08:46 AM
The TRAN heads down below 3180 again, perhaps toward a test of the yesterday-morning low at 3166.94. A drop below 3160 will confirm the H&S on its 60-minute chart, although that neckline descends and will require a deeper drop for confirmation as the day progresses. Yesterday the TRAN tested that neckline and rejected the formation, rising into a second right shoulder, but a lower right shoulder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:06:10 AM
10:04 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:06:06 AM
The OEX tests 15-minute Keltner support. Bears want to see continued fifteen-minute closes beneath 531.99 although they'll take them beneath 533.29.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:01:56 AM
VIX.X 14.50 -0.82% .... Daily pivot levels as follows ... 14.26, 14.49, Piv= 14.77 15.00, 15.28.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  10:01:54 AM
Short @ 1104.49, stop 1105.49

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  10:01:27 AM
Remember that one possible scenario for the day today on the OEX is for the OEX to print a doji or other type of small-bodied candle sitting on or near the midline of the descending regression channel (at about 530.25), with long upper or lower shadows or both. This is an often-seen pattern as the OEX has approached the midline of its descending regression channel. Therefore, it's possible that we'll see a dip down below 530 and then a rise back toward 530-531, if not beyond and back down again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  10:00:42 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 374.22 -0.69% .... Cypress Semi (CY) $8.71 -2.02% warning for the second time this month. Now projects Q3 revenues of $219-$221 million, down from Q2 guidance of $264.3 million. Pro-forma EPS now guided to be $0.03-$0.05, which is well below consensus of $0.13. CY is slated to report Q3 earnings on 10/14/04.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/28/200,  9:59:59 AM
Alert - Consumer Confidence = 96.8 (est 99.5, last 98.2) Last months number was revised up to 98.7 from 98.2. Today's number is the lowest reading since May.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  9:59:20 AM
TRIN is really ramping up ahead of the 7:00AM Consumer Confidence numbers... currently printing 1.67

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  9:58:20 AM
Stuck on a phone call- back shortly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  9:57:16 AM
Turning to a 15-minute OEX chart before the 10:00 release, I see that Keltner support is trying to build down to 531.11, but the support turns down, too, and so may not hold. The OEX has been breaking through a similar configuration of support all through yesterday, so Keltners are not going to be definitive here. A short-term daytrader in a bearish position might consider whether to opt out ahead of the number while someone in for the long term might consider whether to widen stops slightly.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  9:57:02 AM
Stopped out of long play @ 1105.11 and break even

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  9:54:56 AM
MACD has crossed back down on the 1-min chart but CCI never printed over +200 on the initial spike so unless that was a stealth sell signal I would expect us to turn back up. If we are taken out of the long play at break even so be it (it's close right now).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  9:48:27 AM
The OEX isn't retreating much during the first retracement of the day. Bears would have liked to have seen a deeper retreat. Those still in bearish plays from yesterday or last week should make a decision soon as to whether they feel comfortable holding over the 10:00 release. Jim has commented that this likely won't be a market-moving number. Keltner-wise, the OEX is again Keltner resistance at 532.58 and then again just below 533.50, with support at 532.01, then trying to firm near 531.50 and again at 530.94.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  9:47:02 AM
Gold is holding its gains, up 2.90 at 413.60 off a high of 415. HUI is up 2.05% to 220.44, XAU is up 1.96% to 98.61.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  9:46:17 AM
Session low for QQQ at 34.50 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  9:45:38 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart update at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  9:44:49 AM
I note that Jane has just mentioned the TRIN, and it's continuing to zoom up, at 1.31 as I type .

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  9:43:19 AM
There have been no five-minute OEX closes above the Keltner line currently at 532.47. Bears want continued five-minute closes below that Keltner line while bulls want five-minute closes above it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  9:41:03 AM
Nymex crude is currently up .325 at 49.975.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  9:40:34 AM
QQQ is still holding that 5 cent gain, no advance for the past hour, and this chop is taking place on the bulls' nickel within the 30 min oscillator upphase. Next support is at 34.48-.49, followed by 34.40.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  9:38:57 AM
We were just taken out by 10 cents on the short play. I hope 1007.11 doesn't end up being HOD.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  9:36:57 AM
Stopped out of short @ 1007.01 and break even
Long @ 1005.11, raise stop to 1005.11 and break even

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/28/200,  9:34:52 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $43.71 +2.6% .... Announced this morning that equity gold reserves in Ghana are expected to increase 33%, or 4 million ounces, from 11.9 million ounces at year-end 2003 to approximately 16 million ounces at year-end 2004. Continued exploration success at its Ahafo and Akyem projects in Ghana contributed to Newmont's expectations for companywide reserve growth.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  9:33:27 AM
Note: QCharts is not giving current OEX feeds, so this information is from what I saw at the open. The OEX comes up to retest the neckline of the five-minute continuation-form H&S that it confirmed near the close yesterday. As I mentioned yesterday and have mentioned at other times, I don't trust these continuation-form H&S's, but let's see whether the OEX can maintain levels above the neckline again, with that neckline at just under 532. Five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 532.45 might mean that the OEX will test the 533.50-ish level.

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  9:30:36 AM
Short @ 1007.01, stop 1007.01 and break even
Long @ 1005.11, stop 1004.11

 
 
  Mark Davis   9/28/200,  9:29:33 AM
At EOD yesterday SPX was set up to print a buy signal. All we needed was for MACD to cross back up. With SPX futures up 1.70 the buy signal will probably print right out of the gate. We're in a short play from 1107.01, held overnight. I'm planning on entering a councurrent long play at the bell, locking in whatever points we can on the short and then let the market decide which play is the winner.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  9:18:42 AM
European markets have been treading water near their highs of the day over the last hour to hour and a half, perhaps waiting to see what we'll see at our 10:00 economic release.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  9:16:45 AM
QQQ is down to a 5 cent gain here at 34.55. The 30 min oscillator upphase is so far quite weak, and the proxy channel is barely moving sideways here. Channel resistance is at 34.67 QQQ, and there's confluence resistance from 34.58-34.64.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/28/200,  8:54:40 AM
Dateline WSJ - As oil prices headed toward $50 a barrel Monday, one of the world's most important fuel gauges -- U.S. commercial inventories of crude oil -- signaled that the surge in prices may well continue.

Inventories in the U.S. have plunged substantially below last year's level, confounding predictions by many analysts that stocks were building.

That may portend bigger jumps in the price as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter, the season of peak oil use due to consumption of heating oil. To rebuild stocks and keep refineries humming, the actual users of oil -- rather than speculators -- are likely to snap up petroleum, keeping up the pressure on prices.

The decline in American inventories is roiling markets because the U.S., as the world's largest oil user by far, is the main setter of world prices. The fall in stockpiles was exacerbated by Hurricane Ivan's hammering of key producing and transport facilities in the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico. Oil output in the U.S. gulf is still running about 25% below normal, robbing U.S. refiners of needed supplies and prompting the Bush administration to make some emergency loans to buyers from the U.S. government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The government is considering making more such loans.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  8:36:39 AM
The 30 min chart of the NQ futures (premarket QQQ proxy) shows the 30 min cycle upphase sputtering in the very early going. Bears need to beware of a possible bull wedge, however- breakout level is 1402 (approx 34.75 QQQ). In other words, a break above yesterday's high could attract bulls and scare bears. However, given the daily cycle downphase, I would expect that a breakout on this bull wedge would have an extremely tough time reaching its maximum upside target- we'd look for a lower high. I guess below 1420 / 35.20 QQQ. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  8:24:51 AM
Session high for 10-yr treasuries here, with TNX -2.3 bps to 3.973% approaching the cash open.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  8:21:15 AM
Gold is up to 414 currently, having reached a high of 414.40. It needs to clear 415, the site of the August high, to get a clear shot at 420 resistance, above which the year highs come into view. The daily cycle oscillators are not yet overbought, but this is a level that gold bulls need to break. A print below 409 will invalidate the uptrend in place from this month's lows. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   9/28/200,  7:56:48 AM
Green across my screen with ES trading 1107.5, NQ 1395, YM 10015 and QQQ +.09 to 34.59. Gold is up 2.90 to 413.60, silver +.117 to 6.663, ten year notes +.046 to 113.4844 and Nymex crude +.375 to 50.025, session high 50.40.

We await the 10AM release of Consumer confidence, est. 99.5.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/28/200,  6:46:20 AM
Good morning. With Nymex oil climbing above $50.00/barrel in after-hours trading and a downgrade of the U.S. chips hitting chipmakers, Asian bourses declined. Our futures did, too, reaching an overnight low as European bourses opened in the red, too. Oil majors and metal stocks helped many European bourses climb into positive territory, however, and our futures climbed into positive territory, too. Spot gold trades higher. More detail follows in subsequent paragraphs.

The Nikkei hit another six-week intraday low in Tuesday's trading and achieved another record: seeing eight straight days of declines for the first time since late 2002. Climbing crude oil prices was again the culprit, but so was Morgan Stanley's notation of a steep deceleration in revenue growth and Q3 earnings forecasts for U.S. chipmakers. Morgan Stanley cut its ratings of the sector. In addition, unconfirmed rumors circulated that when the IMF releases its estimates on economic growth for the economy on September 29, that report will show a trimmed-down forecast. Tech stocks and airlines fell. DoCoMo declined in early trading as a result of Goldman Sachs lowering the company's rating to an in-line rating from its previous outperform one.

With oil topping $50/barrel in after hours trading, other Asian markets mostly declined. The Taiwan Weighted and South Korea's Kospi were closed for a holiday. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.22%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.55%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.57, however.

Currently, many European bourses trade higher, buoyed by rises in oil majors and metal stocks. Many bourses started out in the red. Airlines suffer, as they did in Asia. Many insurers fall due to costs from natural events, a downgrade in one case, and the announcement that one reinsurer would make a share offer at a discount to Monday's close. Luxury retailer Pinault Printemps Redoute reported earnings and gained, while struggling German retailer Karstadt Quelle, yesterday's big loser, moved into positive territory.

As of 6:42 EST, the FTSE 100 has gained 25.50 points or 0.56%, to trade at 4,566.70. The CAC 40 has gained 14.82 points or 0.41%, to trade at 3,671.75. The DAX trades higher by 2.63 points or 0.07%, at 3,877.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/27/200,  11:03:12 PM
I suggested a bearish OEX breakdown entry on a move through 533.595, the 50% retracement of the rally off the August low. Some chart characteristics suggest a downside count near 525-526, but a strong potential bounce point occurs at 530, where historical S/R joins with the 61.8% retracement of that same rally and round-number S/R. Some may have bailed on bearish positions Monday, but those still in bearish positions should have a plan in mind for dealing with that 530 level, if approached, particularly if the OEX is parked right at 530 going into the 10:00 release of the September Consumer Confidence number. If a bounce should occur, we'll look for another bounce-and-rollover entry point.

Depending on trading style, account size, and other parameters, traders still in bearish positions might elect to take full or partial bearish profits ahead of the consumer sentiment number or might set an account-appropriate stop instead. Some might set a stop an account-appropriate distance above 532, the bottom of yesterday's consolidation zone through most of the day, or an account-appropriate distance above 534, the bottom of the consolidation zone from Thursday afternoon through Friday.

The OEX now approaches the midline of its descending regression channel on the daily chart. On other approaches to this midline through the last months, the OEX often produces a doji or other type of candle with long shadows above or below the midline, now near 530.25. If the OEX follows this often-seen pattern, then, it could perhaps dip toward the 525-527 level and bounce back, perhaps above that midline level, but perhaps end the day somewhere near 530. Therefore, those who wanted only a short-term position might consider following the OEX closely with stops if it should decline tomorrow. Some might even consider setting an automatic profit stop, perhaps at 526-527, if touched, electing to give up the possibility of further bearish gains to minimize the risk of a strong bounce carrying away profits. Those with longer-term plays will perhaps set wider stops to minimize the possibility of being stopped on each oversold bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/27/200,  7:21:06 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/27/200,  6:02:31 PM
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