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  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  6:44:33 PM
Late last week, I kept hoping for an upside breakout of the then-current consolidation zone, up to 538-540. That hope was predicated on my suspicion that the OEX might be trying to form a H&S with the right shoulder under the converging averages near that level: Link Instead, the OEX broke down below that consolidation zone and headed toward 530, where I warned short-term traders to protect positions. Die-hards who intended longer-term holds were probably stopped out today as the OEX finally headed up, still maintaining the possibility of a H&S, but now one with a descending neckline forming along the midline of its regression channel. With the VIX and VXN approaching lows last seen when the OEX was last touching the top of the channel, before the last rollover, and with the OEX still within that descending channel, a sell-the-rallies approach still seems best.

Tomorrow could be a set-up day, depending on how crude behaves and markets react to MU's disappointing earnings. Whisper numbers were lower than MU's actual ones, so a buy-the-fact effect could occur. Those seeking new bearish entries might hope for a move up to 538-540, a move that Keltner channels suggest as a possibility, but the 200-ema at 537.60 might stop the OEX before it can get that high. Be careful of continued end-of-quarter and look-good-in-front-of-the-debate window-dressing as well as pent-up oversold energy from the recent declines, but we'll see if tomorrow offers an entry or a set-up.

If the OEX should roll down through the trendline now crossing at 534.50 and not get immediately bought, it will be breaking the trendline off Tuesday's low, and a breakdown entry could be considered, but profit-protecting plans should be in place as 532.50 and then 530 were approached. Those profit-protecting plans might include a way to participate in further declines, if the OEX should confirm the H&S and those further declines should be offered.

What if I'm wrong and the OEX just keeps climbing? That's always a possibility. We'll look for a breakout entry, too, but positions would then need to be protected as the top of the channel and then the 200-sma were approached.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  5:41:46 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  5:14:13 PM
Alert - MU Earnings = +0.14 rev $1.189B Number appears clean
(est +0.20, rev $1.23B, Q4 prior guidance +0.25, $1.38B)

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  4:43:45 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Closed out the day trade carry over bullish trade in Intel (INTC) at the opening tick of $19.78 bid. ($0.03, or +0.15%) .... "pa-tuuueeee" as stock closes at $20.09. (see 02:59:14 comment regarding early morning decision on this trade).

Bullish swing trade call option for the Dow Diamonds (DIA) and 10 of the Oct. $101 calls (DIAJW) at the offer of $0.90. Stop is on the option at $0.50, and target is the underlying DIA trading $102.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  4:34:07 PM
IBM $84.98 +0.59% ... higher at $85.30

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  4:32:43 PM
Resources Connection (RECN) $39.67 +3.87% ... jumps to $40.91 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.46 vs. $0.32 consensus.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:31:31 PM
TLB warning

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  4:26:23 PM
QQQ goes out at $35.08 +1.47%. Even in last 15-minutes, couldn't quite get the trade at $35.13 could it?

SPY $111.84 +0.5% also shy of 111.96.

DIA $101.47 +0.57%

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  4:21:27 PM
Marc it could have easily gone the other way. The two factors that kept me long were EOQ Window Dressing and that chart of the past two "b" distribution patterns (and what transpired after). I was very tempted to short the close today and hope I don't regret it tomorrow but we have one more day before EOQ and if they decide to jam it up again we could see more short covering tomorrow. If I'm long it's always encouraging to see the markets close at HOD. Depending on what happens overnight a short just after the opening bell could be a good bet. I'd love to bracket the market with calls and puts and an 8 point spread locked in... stay tuned.
One last thought... crude @ $50/bbl could be a temporary electric fence leading to further near-term upside for equities if oil backs off. Tomorrow we start with another clean slate and anything is possible.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:19:17 PM
PNG warning

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:16:33 PM
FHN warning ... went out at $44.26 +0.2% ... last tick at $43.60 in after-hours.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:16:19 PM
UDR warning

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:16:00 PM
AMKR warning ... stock went out at $3.39 +1.37% , ticks at $3.28 in after-hours.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:13:11 PM
IBM settles some pension lawsuits for $320 million

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  4:12:04 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $101.47 +0.57% ... session highs and 3-minutes to the close.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:06:55 PM
AEIS warning

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  4:06:11 PM
No buy/sell program premiums after the 04:00 mark today.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  4:04:11 PM
We are ending the day +6 on the long play from SPX 1108.16. Set your stops wherever you are comfortable but personally I'm leaving mine @ 1110.16 overnight. I may change that tomorrow but I still think this move has potential to go much higher, as in SPX 1130 or above. The worst we can do is +2.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  4:00:25 PM
INTU Reaffirming guidance

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:58:47 PM
The VXO is now at 12.92, up 0.30 from its 3:46 low.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  3:58:10 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 356.55 -0.10% .... battle back

Broker (XBD.X) 125.71 +1.5% ... extend gains a bit.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:57:57 PM
Session high for ES futures here, but QQQ is holding below the prior (lower) high, still within the head and shoulders pattern below 35.10.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:57:50 PM
We're going out close to HOD, if not HOD... shorts are running around with their hair on fire

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:57:16 PM
Need I say that the OEX's climb has a distinct rising wedge look to it, and that such wedges are usually bearish, but must be watched, at least over the last 18 months, closely for the possibility of an upside break instead? In fact, depending on how you draw that wedge, the OEX may have already broken through to the upside, coming back down now to retest the resistance line and see if it holds as support. Yes--it held as support and the OEX is climbing again. Still, such wedges can be a sign that the climb is not well supported and that the OEX could have some more work to do before it can build on those gains, if it can. Watch carefully now for a fall below the wedge's support, now at about 535.60, for a sign that the upside breakout was a fake-out move.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:53:43 PM
Marc, beware of short interest data- most of it tends to be one-month delayed, and I see a steep runup has already occurred in MU earlier this month.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:51:39 PM
Volume is mostly negative here but light overall, and there's no movement in the Qubes, holding at 35.03, within 1 or 2 cents of its 10:30AM levels.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:49:48 PM
SPX sell signal developing with bearish MACD divergence... still not confirmed until MACD crosses back down.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:47:28 PM
TRIN printing .79

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:46:36 PM
The buy signal that started on the 1-min chart has spread all the way to the 60-min chart... all that remains is for the daily MACD to make a bullish cross. That will take some serious doing but is now in the realm of possibility.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:45:15 PM
The OEX moves toward the top of last week's consolidation zone and toward the 50-dma.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:44:40 PM
Thanks, Linda.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:44:12 PM
MU does, Jonathan.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:43:38 PM
I believe that MU reports tonight. Checking now.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:35:52 PM
QQQ just bounced from the rising intraday h&s neckline with a tick down to 34.98. Bulls need to break 35.10 to invalidate the pattern.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:33:15 PM
Jeff noted it earlier, but the Russell 2000 continues to challenge its 200-sma, with that average at 267.75 and with the Russell 2000 at 568.52 as I type. Will it or won't it (close above the 200-sma)?

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:32:47 PM
Lower your stops on the long play to 1110.16, locking in +2. This has the potential to go much higher and I don't want to be stopped out of a potential +20 point move.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:29:54 PM
QQQ isn't going up, and it's failed from a lower high- that head and shoulders is still on the table above 34.97 neckline support. But the drops continue to be slower, weaker and generally more corrective than the advances- not bearish at all.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:29:18 PM
I can't tell you how tempting it is to short this market right now but with +4 in the bank I'm going to hold firm with the long position.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:29:12 PM
Just one more reminder to those playing either the bullish or bearish side in semi-related stocks: MU reports after the close. Clearly, because of the potential inverse H&S on the SOX's chart, some believe the worst is baked in and that semis can recover, but the failure at the attempted breakout above the neckline on 9/20-22 and the subsequent move to a lower (than the 9/16) low warns that those kind of assumptions are dangerous. Decide if you want to hold over if your position will be impacted by MU's report. I'm long beyond predicting how a H&S or inverse H&S will turn out as we've seen so many failures of both, but they do give us clear-cut levels to watch.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:26:22 PM
That rumor doesn't seem to be hurting the markets

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  3:24:15 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 569.07 +0.6% ... only major index I show having traded its WEEKLY Pivot (569.50) so far.

QQQ came within a penny at $35.12.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  3:24:02 PM
Alert - rumor out of Pakistan that Al-Zawari has been caught

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:23:42 PM
VXO at 12.70. No worries... Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:23:30 PM
The TRAN liked today's move lower in crude oil, of course. The TRAN has climbed all the way up to the top of the 9/22 candle, near 3240 resistance, stalling there. So far, bearish price/oscillator divergence continues on the TRAN's daily chart, but oscillators have turned higher again. MACD loops up toward another bullish cross from above signal, but it has not produced such a cross yet.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  3:23:23 PM
If you believe this is more than window-dressing; perhaps it is pre-debate push, barring Kerry from reminding the audience that the market has done nothing this year? Lynne

I would not doubt it

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:20:59 PM
Nymex crude is open for its evening session, last at 49.50.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  3:19:35 PM
VXO at new eight year low under 12.66. Bulls, be very afraid!

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  3:18:06 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:17:58 PM
The OEX's 50-dma is at 536.14, near the top fo last week's consolidation band.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:16:30 PM
Dow is not retreating... good sign for bulls

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:14:29 PM
34.96 QQQ is looking like a head and shoulders neckline. Chart coming right up. Link

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:14:21 PM
Raise your stops to 1111.16, let's lock in another +3

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  3:13:36 PM
MER $50.37 +0.25% ... quiet after just testing afternoon high of $50.49.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  3:12:13 PM
IBM $84.87 +0.46% .... little pop to session highs in last 10-minutes.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:11:25 PM
VERY tempting to short this... sitting on my hands to prevent doing so.
Benchmarking... SPX = 1112.64

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  3:07:02 PM
03:00 market watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  3:06:28 PM
The OEX breaks above yesterday's high. Barring a quick reversal, this should see a move up toward 536, the top of last week's consolidation band.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:06:09 PM
TRIN printing .93

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:06:03 PM
We're seeing the 30 min channel flattening for the first time in hours, and the oscillators are looking very toppy. Nothing prevents an overbought trending move from the 30 min cycle, except that it's the less likely scenario. What's more likely is a failure from or below upper channel resistance, which is conveniently lined up at 35.18. That confluence level still looks like very stiff resistance, and should be the top of the current 30 min upphase.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  3:05:31 PM
Here comes the "fear factor" for shorts... Dow above 10100

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:03:28 PM
QQQ update at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:02:56 PM
TNX has closed 1.94% higher for a 7.8 bp gain at 4.09%.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  3:02:20 PM
Back. Happily, the market hasn't budged, with QQQ trading 35.03. A very weak short cycle downphase is in progress, clearly corrective, and again, above 34.95 there's nothing bearish to emphasize intraday. A wavelet downphase is kicking in here at a lower oscillator high, and a rollover from this 35.03 level could provide a better vantage from which to attack 34.95. Above 35.12, the bulls will have a good shot at so-far untested 35.18.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:59:37 PM
We also learned that one formation could morph into another, and the current OEX five-minute formation sure looks as if it's attempting to morph into a bullish right triangle. The top trendline does still have a slight descent, though, and the OEX is up against that trendline now. Even die-hard bears should be questioning whether they should stay in a trade on an account-appropriate break above yesterday's high, though.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:59:21 PM
Dow at new HOD... remember the bullish engulfing candle on yesterday's daily chart? Dropping back below 10100 now... why are these seemingly insignificant round number support/resistance levels so important? Headline value.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  2:59:14 PM
What I was looking at last night to prepare for this morning with the e-mini NASDAQ futures at this Link

What has unfolded at this Link

Note that "overlap" smack between WEEKLY Pivot and WEEKLY R1.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:55:08 PM
The Morning Star on the SPX 1-min chart again marked a swing low before powering higher. Morning and Evening Stars are very powerful reversal indicators, even on short-term charts.

  Jane Fox   9/29/200,  2:54:00 PM
I keep waiting Linda.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:52:33 PM
We've learned a lot during that time when markets have been range-bound, though, Jim, haven't we? Some of us began trading in the mo-mo days and we learned how to ride a trend, or thought we did. We learned in 2000 to buy puts. (Smile.) We learned in 2003 again that our favorite oscillators just might not be as helpful as we thought in the face of a trend that just wanted to keep going. And now we're recognizing when to expect markets to be range-bound and what trading conditions might be like when they are. If the markets keep on teaching us something new each year, we might all be great traders!

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:51:53 PM
Now you can pay attention to the man behind the curtain... I won't say who that is but his name starts with M and ends with c

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  2:49:17 PM
VIX.X 13.42 -2.96% .... SPX most active options today are at the Dec. 1,115 strike on both the put and call. I didn't jot it down, but I think yesterday's were at October 1,100.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:47:36 PM
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:44:17 PM
Fake-out move or not? As always today, the OEX's movement is ambiguous. The OEX did produce five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 534.12, suggesting that the break of the trendline that occurred about 30 minutes ago could have been a fake-out move. However, each candle body hugs the trendline. The OEX hasn't really climbed back above the trendline and sustained values above it.

I'm on the fence about what might happen. That's not because I can't make up my mind: it's because markets are not delivering clear-cut evidence. I made up my mind last night, and my stance all day long has been that we could see choppy and difficult to decipher and/or trade patterns. That's what we've seen. I'm more bearish (as in sell the rallies) than bullish, but that doesn't mean I don't see a possibility for a rally to sell, too.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  2:39:43 PM
Merrill Lynch (MER) $50.32 +0.15% .... just under its 50-day SMA ($50.49). Stock has pulled back from early September high of $53.50, not too far off of June 30 close of $53.98.

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 125.09 +1.0% making up for some BIX.X 354.92 -0.56% softeness today. XBD.X gets a nice little bounce from curling higher 50-day SMA.

No need to dress the banks up from their June 30 close of 347.46.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:35:12 PM
stepping outside for a few minutes... it's getting too silly in here

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:30:51 PM
Here come the Window Dressers... SPX also just printed another (larger) Morning Star on the 1-min chart. Remember what happened the last time it did that? Bears... "Be afraid. Be very afraid" he said in his best Geena Davis voice.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  2:29:47 PM
Stepping away for 15 minutes ago.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:29:04 PM
Yesterday's intraday bounce in WhirlPool (WHR) is fading. The stock is back under round-number support at $60.00. This could be a bearish entry point here.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:28:01 PM
The OEX hasn't exactly fallen precipitously after breaking through that last and third trendline. Possibilities are that I've drawn the trendlines wrong, that this was a fake-out move, that the correlative-fan theory will not work this time, or that the steep decline hasn't begun yet. If the OEX produces five-minute closes above 534.08, I vote that this was just a fake-out move and we have to wait all over again to see what happens. If it produces five-minute closes beneath 533.50, there are higher chances of seeing declines.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:26:20 PM
Yesterday Black & Decker (BDK) broke out through the top of its recent trading range and resistance at $75.00 to hit new all-time highs. Today the stock is adding to those gains.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:24:10 PM
Actually, I think it sounds like one for Tab. He's great at tinkering with charts. Want to give it a try, Tab?

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  2:23:56 PM
COP is down on their purchase of a huge stake in Yukoil in Russia. It has been anticipated for weeks and this is a sell the news event.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:22:50 PM
SPX almost printed a buy signal just now but it turned into a MACD bearish kiss and we blew through the 1109.50 area like it wasn't there. Not good for the bulls unless it was a stop run to the downside.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  2:21:58 PM
I have a theme song for the bears as well: Link

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:21:44 PM
Reversal A1ert in oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP). The stock is painting a bearish engulfing candlestick today and shares are already overbought.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:20:16 PM
Jim I just noticed you're 14:04 post. Mission Impossible... ouch!

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  2:19:27 PM
Gold has pulled back to 414.50, now up .20. HUI and XAU have pulled up slightly as gold pulled back, reinforcing the idea that traders are playing the miners against the metal today.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:18:53 PM
The BIX appears to have broken through bottom support on a bear flag on its 60-minute chart, but it hasn't yet confirmed by breaking to a new low.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:17:45 PM
Nike (NKE) is starting to look vulnerable after spending several days failing to breakout over resistance at $80.00.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  2:17:39 PM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) up 8.9 bp at 3.364% .... not quite to WEEKLY R1 of 3.382%.

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) up 6.6 bp at 4.867% .... and shy of its WEEKLY R1 of 4.884%.

ever so slight flattening of yield curve today.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  2:16:53 PM
QQQ update at this Link.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:15:49 PM
There's an interesting pattern on video game giant Electronic Arts (ERTS). Looks like back to back Head & Shoulder patterns and the current one is bearish. Chart: Link

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:15:46 PM
Marc here's a challenge for you from reader Lynne...

Really appreciate your chart. I remember the last time you suggested via b chart that SPX would storm through all SMA's to new highs. I couldn't believe it then, but I do now. It would be really interesting to see VXO traced on the B dist chart. Do you think Marc would do it for us? That might make the difference this time (or not).
Thanks as always,

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  2:15:18 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 8.2 bp at 4.094% ... just kissed its WEEKLY R1 of 4.104%.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  2:13:58 PM
QQQ is in suspended animation here with volume running as low as I've seen today. The current sideways drift has made it through the rising support line, but there was zero followthrough on the first selling spike that precipitated it. Bears will want to see 34.95 broken at a minimum before getting too excited by any of the bearish indications popping up- such as the lower wavelet, TRIX and Macd highs and the failure to regain the rising trendline.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:13:42 PM
OEX heads down to test that third (and last, according to the correlative-fan theory) ascending trendline off yesterday's low. According to that theory, a break of that trendline would put an end to the short-term rally off that low. I'd like to add a correlative "that isn't quickly reversed" to that statement about a break. The OEX is breaking through that trendline as I type.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:12:24 PM
Earlier today it was a slow drift down from 1111.30 before 1109 finally gave way to the downside. Now it's a slow drift lower from 1112.38 before 1110.50 finally gave way. The difference is we made a higher high and TRIN is at 1.03 this time instead of 1.20. I'm hanging tough on the bullish side. It will take a decline of -2 pts to stop me out at break even.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  2:12:07 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:11:02 PM
Die-hard OEX bears holding on for a several-day or several-week movement or new bears who entered yesterday certainly have had it tough today. So far, the OEX is stuck beneath resistance that caught it yesterday, but it's lingered uncomfortably near that resistance for an uncomfortably long time.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  2:08:46 PM
While I wouldn't exactly say that's a H&S at the top of the NDX and Nasdaq five-minute charts, I would say that it's a sign that bears are attempting to form one. That might suggest a pullback toward 1404 or so on the NDX and then another bounce attempt from there, with that bounce attempt or failure to make one telling us what we need to know.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:07:36 PM
I don't see any specific news today but Playboy Entertainment (PLA) is up 6% on heavy volume and breaking out over round-number, psychological resistance at $10.00 today.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:05:22 PM
nice one, Jim!

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:03:46 PM
Interesting... there is no reaction to news that Dow-component Wal-Mart (WMT) has upped its stock buyback program from $7 billion to $10 billion. The company had completed $4.6 billion of its previous $7 billion plan.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:03:33 PM
SPX 1110 was resistance, support and then resistance today before the index broke above 1110 again. SPX 1110.50 now appears to be acting as support.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  2:03:11 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   9/29/200,  2:01:53 PM
Good news! OI put play SEPR is breaking through the $48.00-47.50 level and its simple 40, 50 and 100-dma's with today's 2.9% decline.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  2:00:18 PM
The last two hours could be veeeeeeeery interesting today. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:59:25 PM
QQQ needs to get through 35.00 here to get the ball rolling.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:58:36 PM
That third (and last, according to the correlative-fan theory) ascending trendline off yesterday's OEX low is now at about 533.95. Bears want to see that soundly broken, without a quick dip-buying activity sending the OEX right back above the trendline. So far, the OEX hasn't broken anything and just coils tighter.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:57:45 PM
QQQ is breaking the rising trendline for the first time here.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  1:56:24 PM
LOL Jim! The Market Monitor with background music!

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  1:55:16 PM
Take a deep breath and say "Ooooooooooooom" Marc. Man, do I ever know how you feel right now!

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:46:54 PM
Just noticed that for the last two days, the Dow has been battling the 200-ema, converging now with the 50-sma. It's below both, but has pierced the 200-ema both days only to fall back.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:44:18 PM
Mark, Jonathan and I have often joked that someone is going to have to rewrite all the technical analysis books after 2003 because chart formations that are supposed to be bearish no longer are. Those "b" distribution patterns are one example. This year, though, bulls are being stymied, too, as some bullish formations are not turning out to be that, either.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:43:40 PM
Session low for ZN bond futures here, TNX up 2.12% or 8.5 bps at 4.097%.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:41:54 PM
On a 60-minute chart, the OEX's climb looks like a potential bear flag, and the top of that flag has now begun to flatten as each approach to 535 is turned back at 535 or slightly higher. Usually when that happens, the bear flag is prepared to break to the downside, but Jim's notations about end-of-quarter window-dressing should keep us aware that the end-of-the-day pattern might have little to do with chart characteristics. TRIN just keeps sinking, too, a clear warning to bears. I expected a difficult-to-trade day today and that's certainly what's being delivered.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  1:41:07 PM
CAT is holding at $80 resistance after another +3 point move today. This is giving the Dow a +25 point boost. Without CAT today the Dow would be in negative territory.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  1:40:22 PM
Here's a chart I've been watching for weeks. It's a longer-term view of SPX and the last 3 "b" distribution patterns. One possible scenario is that SPX could rally as high as 1131.50 or higher from the last swing low @ 1101.30. At 1131.50 the daily MACD would be close to turning back up and technicians would be wondering if the drop to 1101.30 was "it". Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:39:49 PM
Rising support has held so far, and the wavelet oscillator is trying to turn up. Bears want to see a lower high below 35.12. Bulls want to get a shot at 35.18.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:32:07 PM
QQQ is testing rising trendline support here at 35.02. This drop has been the result of a wavelet downphase so far, and the tending overbought short cycle oscillators have yet to register it. A move below 34.95 should be enough to do it.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:28:59 PM
OEX bears want to see the OEX soundly break 533.70, the site of the third ascending trendline off yesterday's low, and not get immediately bought.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:20:18 PM
The OEX prolongs the confusion for both bears and bulls, pausing at the make-or-break point. Although I'm never very good at guessing which direction the stop-running push will be when it comes, logic would certainly tell you that market participants would try to run the markets higher and see if the higher prices hold or are slapped back. Today that will likely mean a lot of stops run, if that happens, but my logic and the logic of big-money people sometimes don't match.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:16:50 PM
QQQ update at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:15:21 PM
I agree with Keene, at least above the rising trendline connecting the lows and currently up to 35. Unless we see a clear rollover, it's too close to pure guesswork to try to decide where the short cycle trending move will end. My guess is that it gets no higher than 35.18, based on the 30 minute cycle- but the trend today so far remains up.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:10:39 PM
Remember that MU, a SOX component, reports tonight after the bell. Late in August, Banc of America securities trimmed its earnings estimates for 2004 and 2005 for the company. The firm thought the industry would probably peak in 2004's Q3 rather than early in 2005. It reiterated its neutral rating. This could impact the SOX's behavior.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  1:05:38 PM
Today's stop running push could be the "Mother of all stop running pushes" if they decide to jam it higher.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  1:05:21 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  1:01:09 PM
And VXO is printing 12.99 here, -3.06% for the day.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  1:00:25 PM
VIX is only 0.03 off the 9/21 low.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  12:59:37 PM
The OEX so far stalls at that extended trendline that was support late last week and at Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. It's not going much of anywhere yet, though.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:58:26 PM
Rising trendline support is now just below 35.00 QQQ: Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  12:58:12 PM
Great charts, Tab. Thanks for sending them.

  Tab Gilles   9/29/200,  12:56:54 PM
Thoughts on the NDX from earlier today, with part of one projection already following expectations: Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:56:02 PM
12:52 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:51:01 PM
Get out those pain brushes...

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:50:13 PM
Here's the Link on Nigeria.

ABUJA (Reuters) - Nigerian rebel warlord Mujahid Dokubo-Asari said on Wednesday he had agreed a cease-fire with the government while talks take place on his demands for autonomy in the country's oil-rich Niger Delta.

"We have finished the first round of talks with the president (Olusegun Obasanjo). There should be a cessation of hostilities on both sides. Apart from that, we have not agreed anything else for the time being."

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:46:34 PM
Swing trade bullish cancel order alert .... for the QQQ $35.06 +1.41% .... didn't pull back to entry point.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:46:30 PM
Session highs across the board.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  12:45:57 PM
The OEX again faces the extended trendline that was support last week. This is the midchannel level on the 15-minute chart. Die-hard bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath those resistance levels, at about 534.80. They don't want to see the OEX move above yesterday's high.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:44:51 PM
I'm hearing unconfirmed trader chatter of a ceasefire in Nigeria. Looking for confirmation now.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:43:57 PM
200-day SMA alert Alcoa (AA) $33.44 +2.26%

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:40:55 PM
Nymex crude is down 1.325 to 48.575.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:40:39 PM
The SPX 1111 short crowd should be getting a little nervous right about now. Will a Window Dressing Demon jump out and say BOO?

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:40:33 PM
Session high for QQQ at 35.05 here.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:38:32 PM
Well there's our clue. That was a pretty impulsive looking spike but it stopped just short of SPX 1111 again. Still, the upside looks better again and a new HOD should really get things going... now if we can just print a new HOD.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  12:37:18 PM
I've corrected the link in my 12:35 post. It was showing the wrong chart.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:35:54 PM
QQQ is 3 cents away from the session high at 35.03. A rectangle is in place since 10:30AM between 34.90 and 35.03. I expect a break of either line to be directional, but note that the 30 min cycle upphase is out of time and the 60 min cycle is approaching overbought territory- in other words, the bulls should have a tougher go to the upside than to the down. I believe I discussed the prospect of a descending trendline break yesterday, and guessed that it would run into trouble at or below 35.20 QQQ- that still looks like the case to me now.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  12:35:07 PM
The correlative-fan theory suggests that the OEX's rally off yesterday's low needs to maintain the lowest ascending trendline that can be drawn off that rally, if gains are to continue. This theory suggests that each rally establishes three successively lower ascending trendlines, and it's on the break of the third that the trend is broken. This is a short-term trend, of course, but here are three versions of ascending trendlines off that low: Link Theory suggests that the fall is quick once the third trendline is broken. I don't always watch action with the correlative-fan theory in mind (it works for declines, too), but when I do, it generally performs well. So far, the OEX maintains that trendline, but it's hugging it.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:34:12 PM
Intl. Business Machines (IBM) $84.39 -0.11% .... A Dow heavyweight. Pinned under its WEEKLY Pivot $84.71.

June 30 close was $88.15 and while I don't think institutions could paint this one that high by Thursday's close, WEEKLY R1 $86.17 not out of the question.

Similar to INDU/DIA this morning showed a little life. With tech finding a bid today, IBM a "key stock" for my DIA bullish call play.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:30:13 PM
Some energy is being stored here with SPX flatlining right around those 100/130emas that Linda mentioned earlier. Somebody is about to be an unhappy camper but the market isn't giving us any clues yet.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:27:47 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $100.86 -0.02% ...

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:27:16 PM
Lehman iShares 1-3 year (SHY) $82.03 -0.09% ....

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:26:50 PM
Netease.com (NTES) $37.50 +2.73% ....

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:26:38 PM
Likewise I'm sure Marc

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:26:27 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $29.84 +0.53% ...

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:26:06 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.31 +1.84% ....

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:25:42 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $36.81 +0.87% ...

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:25:18 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.29 -2.59% ....

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:24:36 PM
We need to go higher now (grin)

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:23:18 PM
Dec. Crude Oil futures (cl04z) 5-minute interval chart with WEEKLY and DAILY Pivot levels at this Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  12:22:38 PM
Here's an update of the SPX in comparison to the 100/130-ema's on the 191-minute chart: Link The SPX still finds resistance at these averages.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:18:40 PM
SPX is now trying to print a buy signal off that Morning Star formation but it's not quite there yet and could easily turn into a MACD bearish kiss
Benchmarking... SPX = 1109.45

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:17:20 PM
QQQ is looking good for a lower high here, but the intraday uptrend line, currently at 34.85, will need to get broken before the pullback can begin to look more than merely corrective.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:13:27 PM
SPX just printed a Morning Star formation. Even on the 1-min chart this can be a powerful reversal signal.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  12:13:24 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  12:10:29 PM
We're still drifting lower from the HOD @ 1111.31. I would not want to see 1109 taken out.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  12:01:03 PM
Session high for silver futures here, +.125 or 1.89% at 6.735.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:57:23 AM
stepping outside for a few minutes to check out the dog-chasing-squirrel action...

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:56:42 AM
A wavelet bounce is in progress here on QQQ from 34.90. Bears would be happy with a failure below 35.03, while a break above will target the top of 35.10 confluence, followed by 35.18 resistance. Bears need to break below 34.87 to close the door on the session highs.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:56:20 AM
The H&S on the OEX's intraday chart may be resolving into a triangle, also a common occurrence.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  11:56:06 AM
Per Mark's 11:26:08 .... I'm not all that familliar with institutions trying to sniff around for a level to trigger short-covering, but I do know that hedge-funds will call around to see who is short a specific stock and try and get a ballpark figure of where some trouble begins to build.

Watch the Dow, SPX, OEX, NDX/QQQ into Thursday's close, but I'm thinking we may well see some near the close push higher as things get marked up to the end of the quarter.

There's some cash coming out of Treasuries today, and it may be getting ready to flow to equities by Thursday's close.

Stock traders that have some time might look for some stocks that are roughly 5% below their June 30 close, maybe slap a fitted retracement on the stock, see if you can't sniff out a level, that if triggered, has buying coming into the stock to quarter's end.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:55:12 AM
SPX 1110 should be resistance now since we rose above it and then bounced off it 4 times before finally dropping below on the 5th attempt. Currently printing 1110.21. If we break back above and hold it would be bullish.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:51:09 AM
Those die-hard OEX bears in long-term positions or new bears who entered yesterday on the OEX's failure to break above Keltner resistance and an extended trendline from last week's support have been suffering this morning. So far, the OEX still wanders around underneath that resistance, trying to sort out direction. This is a common pattern as it approaches the midline of its descending regression channel.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:51:02 AM
SPX just printed a buy signal and B-bands are rapidly converging on SPX 1109.50. TRIN has dropped to 1.09

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:50:17 AM
Gold is holding positive above 415 currently, but the miners are down, with HUI -1.04% at 221.67 and XAU -.76% at 99.02. The divergence between the miners and not just the broader market but gold as well is strange. My guess is that hedgers are buying the metal and shorting the miners here.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:47:59 AM
The 10:32AM buy program was from SPX 1109.73 and QQQ 34.91
Current prints are SPX 1109.49 and QQQ 34.94

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:44:52 AM
I'm now wishing I had shorted SPX at 1111 concurrent with the long play from 1108 but when we were up there it just looked too risky and too obvious, especially considering the Window Dressing Demons could have jumped out from their hiding places at any time.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:41:55 AM
Having a deja vu over this .87-.90 QQQ level, Marc. 34.92 as well, now that you mention it :)

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:41:54 AM
Additional input as to the XLB. Here I looked at the CRB and the USD. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:40:10 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick update at this Link.

  Tab Gilles   9/29/200,  11:38:09 AM
As to yesterday's chart of the XLB, a closer look plus today's big bounce! Several factors played on this move today, China, AA,DD, DOW news & oil over $50. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:34:39 AM
ES has just ticked negative here, down .25 at 1109.5.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:33:43 AM
Marc if the SOX turns up just a little from these levels (380.85) it will cause a MACD bullish cross and print a buy signal for the index. CCI readings are already set up for a potential long play. Conversely, if it drops much it will print a bearish kiss and tilt things in favor of the downside. 380 is definitely a critical level.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:33:35 AM
QQQ is breaking the prior low at 34.95. No fireworks, but it violates the initial bullish triangle below 35.03 I discussed earlier.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:32:47 AM
The American Petroleum Institute, which often differs from the Energy Dept., confirmed today's rise in crude oil inventories, reporting a rise of 3.7M barrels.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:32:26 AM
Here's the potential H&S that I posted earlier: Link The formation at the top of the climb no longer looks like a "p" accumulation pattern, giving a nod to potential to continue the rollover, which the OEX appears to be doing as I type (chart was uploaded before the rollover deepened). Remember that I'm expecting choppy behavior until the outcome of the competing regular H&S and potential inverse ones gets sorted out, but I will be watching this formation closely.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:26:08 AM
The OEX approaches Keltner support down to 533.23.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:26:08 AM
Jeff could speak to this much better than me but I read in a book somewhere (a long time ago in a faraway galaxy) that funds would sometimes call down to the floor and ask how much money they would have to throw at a stock to push it past a resistance point and trigger short covering. I wonder if the same thinking occurs on the indices. It would take a lot deeper pockets but if very close to strong resistance like now could pay off handsomely... just more head rattling, sorry.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  11:21:58 AM
Is it lunch time yet? P.F.Chang's China Bistro (PFCB) is up 6.7% to $48.68 and breaking out over its simple 200-dma after reporting that Q3 same-store sales rose 3.3%. The company has also pre-announced better than expected revenues for the quarter.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:20:18 AM
There was about a half hour of bearish MACD divergence on the SPX 1-min chart that just resolved itself, but they still can't get it below 1110, formerly resistance and now seems to be acting as light support. Bears had better press here because it wouldn't take but one nice buy program to kick in the afterburners and I'm sure the big boys know that.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:19:27 AM
Crude oil hit a session low of 48.925, currently bouncing to 49.15, down .75 or 1.50% here.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:18:02 AM
Is the OEX rounding down now into that right shoulder for its potential H&S? Since I'm expecting choppy trading conditions today, I wouldn't advise counting on anything confirming or meeting targets until bulls and bears finally sort out which is stronger. That may take a while, but bulls don't want to see an OEX move below the 10:20 low or then below 532. Bears don't want to see a climb above the post-crude-inventories high or then above yesterday's high.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  11:17:21 AM
Boeing (BA) is down 2.75% and breaking support at $51.50 and its simple 50-dma after BAC downgraded the stock from "buy" to "neutral" this morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:17:08 AM
QQQ is finding resistance the prior high of 35.03, which sets up a double top. However, a higher low will give us another of those bullish triangle setups, so bears need to see 34.95 broken to take out the prior low. A move lower from there will target 34.85-.87 support next.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  11:12:37 AM
EBAY is up 2.19% to $92.20 as traders follow through on yesterday's rally back above the $90.00 mark. I hate to say it because the stock looks so extended and overbought but this may be a bullish entry point. Short-term oscillators like stochastics and RSI are turning positive again. Look for resistance at $95 and then at $100.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  11:12:16 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:11:38 AM
The OEX consolidates at the top of the climb from 10:20, in a formation that looks like a possible "p" accumulation pattern. That consolidation occurs just below resistance and at the top acceptable level of a right shoulder for a potential H&S formation. We're still in limbo here. The ADVDEC line is also consolidating, but has been generally moving higher all day. Bulls want to see it continue to do so; bears want the opposite.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  11:10:00 AM
11:07 Market Watch at this Link

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:08:13 AM
If you're long from 1108.16 I'd probably just leave the stop at break even. This is a weird day and being up +3 with a risk free trade is probably as good a setup as you could ask for.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  11:07:45 AM
I almost forgot! Yesterday I posted the next three lockup expirations for Google. Those were:

39.1 million shares on Nov. 17th.
24.9 million shares on Dec. 17th.
24.9 million shares on Jan. 16th.

I almost forgot the big one. Another 176.8 million shares come to market on February 14th marking the end of the 180-day lockup period. This one day alone brings almost 8 times the amount of stock that GOOG offered in its IPO.

Investors are obviously not concerned (yet) about these lockups as the stock soars another 5.2% today to $133.69 after yesterday's bullish comments from most of Wall Street's firms.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  11:07:18 AM
The current wavelet downphase for QQQ is aborting early from a higher price and oscillator high, and it looks like the short cycle oscillators aren't done trending. The 30 min cycle should be maxxed out by the top of confluence at 35.18. While 35.00-.10 confluence remains intact, that higher wavelet low looks bullish from here.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:04:42 AM
Due to the impact of higher oil prices, the IMF has cut its forecast for growth for the global economies in 2005 to 4.3%, down from this year's expected 5% growth. It was feared that the IMF would trim its expectations, but I could never find any whisper number as to what was expected, so I'm not sure whether this will reassure markets to confirm their fears. The "risks to the downside" statements cannot be encouraging, however.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  11:02:42 AM
Early statements out of the IMF: The report characterizes the global outlook as less solid, but agrees that the soft patch in the U.S. is only temporary. Economic risks are to the downside for the global economies, and China's economy must slow down.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  11:00:58 AM
We now have a clear sell signal on SPX and I'm guessing more than a few people went short @ 1111. If that is the case then a move above 1111 might just cause enough short covering to propel us over 1112 and really get things going to the upside... just listening to my head rattle here.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  10:58:42 AM
American Technology Research has upgraded several semiconductor stocks to a "buy" this morning. Could help account for the 2% rally in the SOX.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  10:55:41 AM
PIMCO is suggesting that investors sell bonds now that yields are this low. Here's a quote from a Bloomberg article today:

"Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said investors should reduce their holdings of 10-year notes because the government's inflation figures understate the rate of price increases."

If investors bought bonds on a "benign outlook for inflation, they had better cash some of them in, especially at today's 4 percent yield for 10-year Treasuries," Gross said.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  10:53:46 AM
Above SPX 1112 we could see some fireworks...

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  10:53:43 AM
The OEX is steadying at the absolutely top level that might be considered an appropriate top for a right shoulder in a possible H&S formation, but it needs to roll down if it's going to preserve the possibility of forming a H&S. It's going to leave us in suspense as long as possible. I'm not surprised by today's action since the OEX so often consolidates a few days when it approaches the midline level on its descending regression channel on the daily chart. Consolidation on a daily chart sometimes produces choppy trading conditions intraday. While I'm not surprised, that doesn't make it enjoyable.

  James Brown   9/29/200,  10:50:38 AM
Symantec (SYMC) has been up four days in a row now (currently up 1.8% to $54.65) and is nearing resistance at $55.00 and the top of its narrow rising channel. Bullish traders looking to jump on this train may want to watch it for a dip back toward $52.00 and consider a bounce from the bottom of its narrow channel.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:50:04 AM
Swing trade Index call option alert taking 10 of the DIA Oct. $101 calls (DIAJW) at the offer of $0.90, stop $0.50, target $102.

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $101.06 +0.16% here.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  10:47:51 AM
It was very tempting to short SPX 1111.00 but at the time MACD was still pointed straight up. It's trying to roll over now. Much lower and it will print a sell signal. I'm hesitant to take a short position though... that was some pretty impulsive looking action to the upside and the 1-min chart starts producing false signals in a trending market. It's too early to call this a trending move but not too early to start watching for it.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:46:42 AM
We know the drill from here. 34.85-.87 is now support, below which 34.75 and 34.67. A move below 34.75 should roll the 30 minute cycle which is maxxed out to the upside, but we'll need to see it confirmed with a break below prior resistance-turned-support at 34.67.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:43:23 AM
Treasuries continue to unwind .... 5-year yield up 7.4 bp at 3.349%. Lehman iShares 1-3 year (SHY) $81.99 -0.14% ....

10-year yield up 7.4 bp at 4.086% ....

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  10:43:00 AM
You know you might be in for a choppy period in your trading day when you can pick out competing regular H&S and inverse ones on the intraday charts. This chart shows a potential H&S, although the OEX has to round over right now in order to preserve that possibility, but if you look closely, you can find one or two possible versions of an inverse H&S, too: Link This shows that bulls and bears aren't through battling it out just yet. Sure wish they'd get it over with!

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  10:41:47 AM
In case you missed it... yesterday's daily candle on the Dow was "Bullish Engulfing". Link
The other indices were very close to the same pattern but the Dow was the only one that printed a true Bullish Engulfing candle.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:39:08 AM
QQQ knocking at the door of 35.00-35.10 resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:35:34 AM
Gold is down to 414.70 from a high of 416.20. HUI is fractionally positive, with XAU fractionally negative.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:34:13 AM
Swing trade long setup alert ..... would buy a QQQ pullback at $34.77, Stop $34.42, target $35.30.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  10:34:01 AM
Raise stop on long play to 1108.16 and break even.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  10:33:31 AM
I'm afraid that jerking around isn't over yet, either, Mark. The IMF releases its statement in the next 30 minute, too, unless it's "embargoed" again.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:33:04 AM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 49.15.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  10:32:40 AM
They are really jerking us around today, aren't they?

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:32:01 AM
Buy program premium .... SPX 1,109.73, QQQ $34.91

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:31:44 AM
The crude oil inventories have Nymex crude down to 49.50 and equities spiking to new highs.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:31:34 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 354.08 -0.8% ... slip back into "zone of support" 352.68-354.97.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:30:21 AM
Look for 34.75 to act as support. A break below 34.67 would set up the current blast above 34.75 as a throwover and leave the market vulnerable to a key reversal for the day.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  10:30:17 AM
Alert - Crude oil inventories +3.4MB, this was well above expectations for -3.0mb drop.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  10:28:58 AM
Our markets need to decide what they're doing so European markets can decide how to close. The FSTE 100 has been trading in a less than 10-point range for about 3 1/2 hours. The CAC 40 and DAX have been trading in a tight-but-sinking range.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:27:25 AM
200-day SMA alert .... Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 567.90 +0.39% ...

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:27:16 AM
Next confluence resistance is 34.84-.85 for QQQ. The short cycle oscillators are overbought and on the verge of trending here.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  10:26:09 AM
Here's an update of the NDX chart I showed earlier: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:25:19 AM
Bonds continue to weaken, with TNX +6.7 bps or 1.67% at 4.079%. Nymex cryde is up .25 at 50.15 currently, +.5% for the day.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:24:48 AM
Identix Inc. (IDNX) $6.76 +24.2% Link .... said it won a contract to supply facial recognition systems for the U.S. Department of State visa processing. Company expects to recognize $2.2 million over the next 12 months.

In 2004, IDNX reported revenue of $55.2 million for fiscal year ending July 30.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:22:33 AM
The highs are breaking here with a vertical buy program right at the highs. Myself, I prefer to buy low and sell high, but whoever's on the bid here has to have it now.

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  10:22:30 AM
We are about 7 min from the crude inventories at 10:30 and current estimates are for a drop of -1.5MB to -3.0MB. Oil is currently at $50.12 while we wait.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  10:21:59 AM
That 533.50-ish Keltner support for the OEX should now be resistance. The OEX appears to be headed down for a retest of 532, but perhaps not until it first retests 533.30. Bears should remain watchful for the possibility that the OEX could still be trying to form a reverse H&S. If the OEX drops much below 532, that possibility is lessened, and a drop below yesterday's low undoes that possibility. I'm still afraid that we could get another choppy consolidation day, though, so be careful with positions, especially as crude inventories (10:30) and the IMF statement (11:00 EST) are released.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  10:20:58 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:14:15 AM
Session low for SPY and ES here. QQQ is printing 34.66, trying to get back below prior confluence support at 34.67.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:13:11 AM
VIX.X 13.78 -0.36% .... Daily Pivot levels as follows .... 13.00, 13.42, Piv=14.10, 14.52, 15.20.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:11:59 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  10:09:06 AM
The NDX is now testing the 100/130-ema's on its 382-minute chart, with those averages displayed on the chart linked to my 9:40 post. The SPX continues to turn down below the 191-minute one linked to my 9:46 post. We've got to get the tech-related indices and others heading the same direction before we know what's going to happen.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  10:07:43 AM
The short cycle oscillators are more overbought than they were 20 minutes ago, and the trending wavelet cycle oscillator is just starting an overdue downphase. Below 34.67, the short cycle should begin to print some downticks, and given how overbought the 30 min cycle has become, a short cycle downphase should exert influence over the longer intraday cycles as well. Below 35.52, look for the 30 min cycle to begin rolling over.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  10:05:42 AM
I hate these goofy markets... NDX just printed a sell signal on the 1-min but SPX hasn't even printed a CCI reading over +150 this morning and printed a strong buy signal earlier that hasn't aborted yet. What does this mean? Be careful either way I suppose.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  10:02:27 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:59:50 AM
Nymex crude is currently flat at 49.90.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:59:36 AM
QQQ chart with updated fibonacci grid at this Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:53:57 AM
The Fed has given its dealers 3.25B via overnight repo just now, with no expiries today for a net add in that amount.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  9:53:28 AM
I'll be away for about 10 minutes.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:52:36 AM
The session high is 34.72 QQQ so far. 34.75 is stiff resistance. The 30 min cycle oscillators are looking very extended while the 60 is just past the midpoint of its range. A move above 34.75 will suggest a retest of the 35.00-35.10 confluence next.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  9:50:37 AM
The OEX is testing Keltner support down to 533.23 now. That Keltner support looks strong enough to provide a bounce up to 534, at least, but we've already had one attempt at 534 from this same support, so I'm not certain whether that's "it." I'm noting that during the typical first reversal of the day, we did not see a reversal from the morning's first down move, but rather a consolidation. That's not speaking well for bullish strength so far, but we still have economic numbers ahead and some sorting out to do among the bifurcated markets.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  9:49:58 AM
Raise stop on long play to 1107.16

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  9:48:52 AM
Exiting short play @ 1008.71, +1.19

  Jim Brown   9/29/200,  9:46:41 AM
MO reaffirming their guidance

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  9:46:18 AM
Here's the SPX on the 191-minute chart, with 100/130-ema's, and also with a Fib bracket off the August rally: Link On both the OEX and SPX, the 100/130-ema's look more important on the 191-minute than the 382-minute chart. The averages appear to be serving as resistance. The SPX bounced off the 38.2% retracement of that rally, but now can't move far above those averages. Again, I've just been fiddling with these charts this week, so can't vouch for their continued importance, but they certainly look like a useful tool now to just watch and gauge the action. Bears of course want to see those averages continue to serve as resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:45:05 AM
Gold is holding above 415, with HUI +.43% at 224.86. XAU is down .1% at 99.68.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  9:43:53 AM
SOX.X 378.72 +1.34% ... sector winner early.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:42:36 AM
QQQ is breaking yesterday's high as I type with a session high of 34.71.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  9:42:26 AM
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $2.94 +10.75% ... says its radios will be in Wal-Marts nationwide. Bear Stearns upgraded this morning.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  9:42:23 AM
SPX has just printed a buy signal @ 1109.20

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:41:01 AM
QQQ is testing yesterday's high here. The short cycles are not yet following along- it's only the wavelet cycle in an upphase, just reaching overbought as I type.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  9:40:00 AM
The NDX heads up toward this as-yet-unproven resistance: Link I'm just starting to watch the NDX based on this chart's time interval, so can't say with certainty that the NDX's pattern will continue to show some relevance to these 100/130-ema's (blue/purple) on this chart, but its seems to have been through the summer, at least.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  9:39:00 AM
December Copper futures (hg04z) $1.3805 +0.8% .... did achieve its point and figure chart's bullish vertical count of $1.385 minutes ago.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:37:09 AM
Gold has just broken 415 resistance, printing a high of 416.20 a few moments ago. This move needs to hold to extend the daily cycle upphase and give bulls a shot at 419 resistance. Look for support now at 414.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  9:35:00 AM
The OEX opens below the extended trendline from last week's support and the mid-channel level on the 15-minute Keltner charts, resistance that held it back late yesterday afternoon, and heads lower. The OEX is near the midline level on its descending regression channel on its daily chart, and it typically consolidates there a day or two at least before deciding on ultimate direction, so we could be in for some choppy times. So far, the die-hard OEX bears that had longer-term positions and the new bears that might have entered late yesterday on a downturn beneath that resistance are cheered by the downturn beneath that resistance, but we could see the OEX trade in a choppy fashion within the recent 530-534-ish range today. Hope not, but historical patterns suggest that could happen.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  9:34:57 AM
Go long now @ SPX 1008.16, stop 1006.16

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  9:34:53 AM
Intel (INTC) $19.75 +0.3% .... day trade carry over bulls should be closed out.

  Mark Davis   9/29/200,  9:33:16 AM
Raise stop on short play to 1009.90 and break even

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  9:28:52 AM
The IMF is expected to release its estimates today for the growth for the global economy. The site says the report has been "embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Washington time." Rumors have been that the IMF will lower its outlook. Be watchful then about the time of this release.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  9:24:13 AM
Equities have gone lightly negative. I was hoping for a gapper in either direction to take QQQ out of this 34.23-34.75 range, but no such luck. The 30 min cycle oscillators are tilted higher, with resistance at ...34.75 again, support 34.40. A move below the 7200-tick SMA at 34.50 will stall that upphase, and the overbought short cycle oscillators are looking vulnerable here. Support is at 34.47, 34.35 and 34.23.

  Jeff Bailey   9/29/200,  9:13:57 AM
Bullish day trade carry over close out alert .... for Intel (INTC) here in pre-market at $19.78 if we can get it.

Otherwise will hold stop at $19.68. If NASDAQ futures were holding above 1,394.00 I feel more bullish, but not happening ahead of this morning's oil inventory report.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  8:51:03 AM
Bonds continue to weaken, TNX +4.2 bps to 4.054%.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  8:47:33 AM
Session high for gold at 415 resistance here.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  8:34:19 AM
Equities are slightly higher on the news, with QQQ up 6 cents at 34.61 currently. Bonds are down, TNX +2.9 bps to 4.041%. Gold is trading 414, and silver spiked briefly but is back to 6.63. Nymex crude is down .05 at 49.875. Overall, the market is greeting the data with a yawn so far.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  8:31:02 AM

8:30am U.S. Q2 GDP REVISED UP TO 3.3% VS. 3.1% EXPECTED



8:30am U.S. Q2 FINAL SALES RISE 2.5%


  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  8:11:17 AM
We await the Q2 Final GDP scheduled for release at 8:30, est. 3% and chain deflator, est. 3.2%.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/29/200,  8:03:34 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES 1109.75, NQ 1394, YM 10062 and QQQ +.01 at 34.56. Gold is down .80 to 413.50, silver -.022 at 6.588, ten year notes down .187 to 113.1719 and crude oil down a dime to 49.80.

  Linda Piazza   9/29/200,  7:05:24 AM
Good morning. In the overnight session, Japan hit another six-week closing low and tacked on a ninth day to its losing streak, but European bourses climb this morning. Our futures drifted lower into the opening of European markets, but climbed back toward the flat-line level as European markets posted gains. As of 6:59 EST, gold is down 1.4 points and crude is down 0.15. More detail about overnight markets follows.

Japan's retail sales fell 0.1 percent in August according to figures released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, but that decline was smaller than expected. In the U.S. retailers blame hurricanes. In Japan, they blame typhoons and a heat wave in July and August. Although an earlier report stated that the Tankan survey would be released September 29, a Bank of Japan schedule shows an October 1 release date for the September summary and an October 4 date for the figures by industry.

The Nikkei opened in the green, also buoyed by a strong performance in the machinery stocks after CAT increased its sales forecast for 2004. Exporters didn't fare so well, however, with consumer confidence dropping in the U.S. By the close of the morning session, the Nikkei had dropped below Tuesday's close. It traded in negative territory throughout the rest of the day, ending down 29.47 points or 0.27%, at 10,786.10, another new six-week closing low and its ninth day of negative closes. The Nikkei did show signs of trying to steady, however, staying above Tuesday's intraday low. After the close, Matsushita Electronics Works increased its net profit estimate for the year.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, but the ones commonly followed in these posts were either closed for a holiday or turned lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.67%. South Korea's Kospi was closed for the final day of its holiday this week. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.24%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was also closed for a holiday. China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.09%.

Currently, as crude prices ease slightly off yesterday's closing level, European bourses build on enthusiasm after CAT's late-day announcement of its improved outlook. They trade in the green, although the governments of Holland and France announced plans to reduce their holdings. Techs were mostly positive, even through chip-equipment maker ASML's announcement that it could push out some systems into 2005 and the stock's subsequent decline. Some Commerzbank executives will leave, requiring a shuffling of executives, but the stock was higher in Wednesday's trading. Euro Disney was a big gainer, rebounding after creditors accepted its restructuring plan. Consolidation in the U.K. radio market draws much attention this morning.

As of 6:59 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 18.10 points or 0.40%, at 4,585.40. The CAC 40 was higher by 22.58 points or 0.62%, at 3,690.05. The DAX was higher by 40.08 points or 1.03%, at 3,922.35.

  OI Technical Staff   9/28/200,  9:37:22 PM
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