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  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  4:47:44 PM
Jim re: your 16:06 post about Men's Wearhouse. I guess they don't have a "Hurricane Suit and Tie" line. Men's Wearhouse is out here in Silicon Valley and to blame the weather for poor sales is ludicrous... as George Zimmer would say... "I guarantee it"

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:44:13 PM
PXLW Lowering revenue est, raising earnings est.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  4:16:21 PM
Jim I'll bet the "Beagle" virus is one of them... I've been hit relentlessly over the last week.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:12:25 PM
SYMC closed at new all time high with four new viruses announced today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  4:11:09 PM
Long @ 1136.00, raise stop to 1140.00, locking in +4, hold overnight

We closed at HOD and above strong resistance @ 1140 by +2 points... if you're a bear it's hard to see anything encouraging other than high oil prices but nobody seems to care. If you're a bull you're rolling in the clover but need to keep your enthusiasm in check and protect profits. The market seems to be pricing in a good Jobs Report, opening the door for disappointment unless there is a blowout number. Keep your focus short-term.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:07:01 PM
SPN warning

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:06:49 PM
MW Mens Warehouse saying weather had negative impact on sales

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:04:22 PM
DNA beats estimates by +3 cents.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:04:05 PM
SBUX same store sales disappoint, stock down -1.75 in after hours.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:02:59 PM
LAVA warning

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  4:01:11 PM
WMAR warning

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  3:59:57 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.44 +2.68% .... decent bounce after morning test of rounding higher 50-day SMA ($3.26).

Positive comments from Verizon (VZ) $41.46 +1.63% regarding increased spending.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:57:52 PM
The OEX appears to be headed for a close right where I feared it would close, at the 200-sma and the 9/13 high. Those currently in bullish positions should assess their profit-protecting plans as we approach the close near that important resistance. Other indices have shown breakouts and the OEX has now broken out of one version of its descending regression channel, too, but this could be strong resistance that won't be erased if the OEX runs slightly past them in short-covering into the close. The OEX, Dow, COMPX, and SOX are either the laggards that are finally going to tag along with the other indices or they're the ones that are going to pull those others back down again.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:57:02 PM
Shorts have to be seriously concerned right now but some of the more aggressive ones may short the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  3:55:53 PM
1/2 position Bullish swing trade call option alert taking 2 of the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.95 +0.12% .... Jan $32.50 call (SMH-AZ) at $2.10 offer.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:54:30 PM
Raise stop on the long play to 1139, locking in +3, hold overnight

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:54:02 PM
Mark, I was just about to add that the OEX was lagging, too, with respect to a climb above its 200-sma. (See Mark's 15:49 post.)

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:51:05 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1140.55, -1
Still long from 1136.00, stop 1136.00 and break even

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  3:49:35 PM
Current LEAP plays, COP, JNPR, EBAY, XLE and OXY are moving up nicely today. JNPR seeing a serious spike over the last 15 min. EBAY, COP, OXY, XLE are all at new all time highs.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:47:23 PM
I'd love to be stopped out of the short play @ 1140.55 for -1... the long play would be up +4.55 and threatening to trigger some serious short covering.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:44:49 PM
I've become interesting in watching several indices on charts with time intervals based on multiples of the Fib numbers. I've been posting one on the SOX, for example, with the neckline of the inverse H&S and the importance of the 100/130-ema's easier to discern on that chart: Link The SOX clearly hasn't been able to close above that neckline on this chart, while it appeared to do so on the daily one. Here's a 382-minute chart of the OEX, showing a potential inverse H&S on this chart, also easier to discern than on the daily chart. However, it's possible that this neckline version is not the correct one: Link I certainly wouldn't jump in long ahead of a test of the 200-sma and the 9/13 high.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:40:18 PM
Long @ 1136.00, raise stop to 1136.00 and break even
Short @ 1139.55, stop 1140.55

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:35:49 PM
The OEX and Nasdaq both approach their 200-sma's, with the Nasdaq already inching over its 200-sma and just below Monday's high. The Nasdaq got knocked back from that level Monday, and we should see in a few minutes whether it's going to be today, too.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:34:22 PM
Go short now @ SPX 1139.55, stop 1140.55
We now have the market bracketed with puts and calls and a +3 1/2 point spread locked in.

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  3:33:16 PM
If you're looking for an alternative in the energy sector - check out coal-producer Peabody Energy (BTU). The stock is up 2.99% and hitting new highs over resistance at $60.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:32:27 PM
Approaching critical mass but watch out for shorts to hit 1140. I would expect them to but if they do and fail we could see an explosive move to the upside. Feel free to use my enthusiasm as a contrary indicator.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:27:29 PM
Nasdaq up against its 200-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:23:45 PM
Those currently in bullish OEX plays should have profit-protecting plans in place as the OEX heads toward a test of Monday's high, the 200-sma, the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded this year, and the 9/13 high. Whew! It will be powerful if the OEX breaks through all that resistance, but it hasn't done so yet. Worse case scenario is that the OEX will end the day jammed up underneath that resistance and both bears and bulls will have a quandary on their hands as they try to decide whether to hold overnight or, in the case of bears, enter new positions if the OEX ends up just under that resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:20:14 PM
Bears are trying to defend SPX 1138... if it gives way watch 'em run, but I'd still like to see 1140 before I feel really good about the long play. Above that there be dragons (for the bears)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:20:02 PM
The TRAN broke to a new high.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  3:15:22 PM
EBAY at new all time high +2.01 at $95.84

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:14:56 PM
Here comes SPX 1138... watch for some short covering if we take it out.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:11:34 PM
The Dow and OEX are both stronger than the SOX and Nasdaq today. This is just what the doctor ordered for continuation of the rally (if it holds).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  3:11:04 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,137.75, OEX 545.80, QQQ $36.40

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:09:24 PM
For the second time today, the OEX breaks above the descending trendline off Monday's high. We've got Monday's high, the 200-sma, the top of the descending trendline off the year's high, and the 9/13 high just ahead of us. Not a good place to get long, I don't think, with the highest of those resistance levels only at 548.52 and the lowest just ahead.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:08:23 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1137.00, -1
Still long @ 1136.00, stop 1135.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  3:06:32 PM
03:01 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  3:06:27 PM
After breaking minimally through the ascending trendline off the post-inventories-number low, the TRAN retests trendline. If the TRAN can avoid printing a lower five-minute low, the post-inventories-number trading pattern will begin to look like a bullish right triangle with a flat top near 3372 and with a series of higher lows, but five-minute MACD flattens, not giving a clue as to whether that will happen. The TRAN hugs that ascending trendline, too, not yet able to move far above it or far below it. We have to wait it out.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  3:03:43 PM
Now long @ ll36.00, stop 1137.00
Short @ 1136.00, stop 1135.00
We are totally flat the market but a break in either direction could very well have some juice behind it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  3:01:46 PM
Lehman 1-3 year iShares (SHY) ... here an updated chart with conventional (BLUE) and my "fitted" (PINK) retracement overlay. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:59:05 PM
The TRAN is at the top of an ascending regression channel in which it's traded since March of this year.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  2:59:03 PM
Go long again @ 1136, stop 1135

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:57:24 PM
I need to dash out to an appointment for my car and won't be back before the close. Look for a directional break either below the session low of 36.11, to be confirmed by a failure of 36.00-.05 confluence, or above the session high, confirmed with a move above 36.62 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:52:55 PM
The OEX turned down below the top trendline of the descending channel off Monday's high. It's now finding support, temporarily, on the bottom trendline of the ascending channel off yesterday's late-day low. What a mess. Hard to even type all of that, but see the chart linked to my 14:37 post for a view of the channels involved.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:50:52 PM
The TRAN tests and perhaps slips below the ascending trendline formed off the post-inventories-number low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:50:24 PM
Nymex crude settled at 52.025, +1.81%, a new record high.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  2:49:57 PM
When trying to dial out the various differences between the Dow, Nasdaq, Russell to determine true market direction/strength it is always beneficial to look at the Wilshire-5000. That is the broadest representation of the market and eliminates the weighting irregularities of the Dow and Nasdaq. Currently the Wilshire (Symbol DWC) has stalled at 11100 and has barely moved since the Monday spike. We have a clear indication of a stalled market but also no indication of any weakness. While the unsupported program trade spike from 10900 appears very risky every minor dip is being met with buying. There is clearly no fear of failure but insufficient conviction on the part of buyers to move higher in front of the heavy economic calendar tomorrow and the Jobs report on Friday.

Daily Chart: Link
15 Min Chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  2:49:31 PM
Lehman iShare 1-3 year (SHY) update alert $81.80 -0.08% .... I'm not very happy with performance of this trade as the shorter-dated 5-year yield ($FVX.X) has risen as planned, yet our SHY $82 puts not doing a thing! Here's my 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) chart Link and on a yield "pop" above 3.7%, I'm seriously considering letting the SHY $82 puts go for what I think will be $0.85, maybe $0.90 per contract.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:47:21 PM
Steep sell candle breaking the lower rising support line here on QQQ, but volume is still light.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  2:45:42 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1136.00, +1.5
Now short @ 1136.00, stop 1137.00

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:38:27 PM
The TRAN hasn't yet been able to capitalize on the closing of Nymex crude. It's hanging around just beneath the day's high, but hasn't yet been able to push above it.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  2:38:12 PM
Go short with a touch of SPX 1136...
Close out long play at the same time

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:37:07 PM
Here's where the OEX is with respect to the two channels I've been showing on the five-minute chart: Link No breakout yet, although the OEX certainly has been trying over the last 30 minutes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:35:54 PM
QQQ 2-day chart updated at this Link.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  2:32:32 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  2:30:58 PM
If I were a bear I'd be getting nervous right about now... the last two upside moves have been impulsive looking, to quote a "Keeneism"

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  2:29:12 PM
It's tempting to go short here but I still think that sharp (little) rally was the big money and for now I'll follow the money.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:24:44 PM
Session low for bonds here at 111.95, TNX up 5.1 bps or 1.22% to 4.224%. QQQ failed below 36.40, but bears need to get below 36.29 at a minimum to give this short cycle downphase some extension. Otherwise, the next upphase will be a doozy.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  2:22:31 PM
We just reversed 75 minutes of selling in 15 minutes of buying. I don't know whether to short it or just stay long. Actually that's a lie... the steep advance makes me think it's institutional buying so I'll stay long for now and keep a close eye on things because we still have a lower high at this point. Above 1137.50 and the long play may gain some traction to the upside. As I typed this post there was a sharp rollover from a lower high. Now we have to guess if it was a stop run or the real thing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:20:43 PM
The TRAN came within $0.04 of its day's high. It's now slightly below that, but still maintaining an ascending trendline off the post-inventories-number low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  2:20:20 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:16:58 PM
Nymex crude is now above 52, currently 52.075 and +1.91%. Equities remain oblivious.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:15:37 PM
The OEX tests the top of the descending regression channel off Monday's high. It's hard to remain patient while we wait for a breakout one direction or the other, but that's unfortunately just what we must be.

Aggressive bearish scalpers have been able to profit from touches of the top of the channel since Monday, but there's a less than three-point spread and only those who get in exactly at the top of each swing and out exactly at the bottom would likely be able to profit, with such traders having to accept risk that the OEX will turn and break to the upside instead.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:07:33 PM
The TRAN did sneak higher again, posting strong gains over the last 10 minutes and now within a point of the day's high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:07:10 PM
QQQ is back above 36.35, returning to 36.40 resistance here, currently at 36,37. Nymex crude is holding at 51.875, off a high of 52.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  2:05:33 PM
On the five-minute chart, the OEX's descending regression channel off Monday's high looks far too extended to be a bull flag, but it looks different when viewed from a 60-minute chart. There, the formation looks well within the parameters of a bull flag. There, this morning's aborted attempt to break out to the upside left only a candle shadow above the trendline, so that the symmetrical triangle that various writers had noted on various indices' chart also still looks to be in place on the 60-minute chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  2:04:48 PM
Rising support connecting the lows today is currently at 36.29, lining up with fib and confluence support intraday. An amazing lack of range and movement over the past hour.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  1:58:35 PM
The talking heads keep pounding the crude oil drum... over $52/bbl (just heard on Bloomberg TV). If we can rally from here (1135 area) that would be very bullish as it would indicate traders have at least partially priced in higher crude oil prices. The more they talk about something on TV the more likely it is priced into the market. When it hits the cover of Newsweek you can be sure the final bagholders are buying (or selling, as the case may be) and it's time to go counter trend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:56:11 PM
The OEX is now near the bottom of the ascending regression channel established off yesterday's late-day low. Is it ready to climb again to test the descending channel off Monday's high or will it break down and head to the bottom of that descending channel, toward 542.50, again? Which channel's influence will win? After trying an upside break out of both channels and seeing that upside break fail, I'm wondering if market makers will now try a downside break (of the ascending channel, at least) and see if that holds.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  1:53:50 PM
If I weren't already long @ 1134.50 I'd be thinking about going long right here. I'm starting to see early signs of bullish MACD divergence at the 1135 level.

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  1:52:29 PM
Uh-oh! Dow-component MMM just saw a spurt of buying activity with a rally back over the $80.00 mark. Its MACD is hinting at a new buy signal soon.

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  1:50:45 PM
It's too cheap to trade options on but stock traders may want to check out WebMethods (WEBM). Shares just jumped over resistance at the 100-dma and the $6.00 mark. WEBM could try and "fill the gap" with overhead resistance near $8.00.

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  1:48:21 PM
AAPL's multi-week rally has just pushed the stock to $39.99. The $40 level looks like resistance dating back to May 2000. It would be nice to see some profit taking here so we can consider buying a dip into the fourth quarter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:44:24 PM
The TRAN may have appeared to begin a rollover from a lower low, but as I mentioned earlier, it's a sneaky thing that can reverse on a whim, and it's trying hard to steady and move up again. It hasn't been successful yet in moving higher. It's in the middle of this morning's peak and the post-inventories-number trough.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:42:31 PM
The OEX is back to the five-minute 100/130-ema's.

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  1:40:30 PM
QCOM is looking relatively strong with traders buying two dips to $40.50 in the last two days. The stock is currently trading at 3 1/2 year highs.

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  1:36:46 PM
Software stock MERQ is also moving into its gap from July although the volume on today's 2% gain is pretty low.

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/6/200,  1:36:19 PM
Mark - where's the lipstick?

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  1:35:19 PM
Beleaguered software stock VRTS is seeing some follow through today on top of yesterday's breakout over $20 and the bottom of its gap down. An upgrade to "accumulate" this morning didn't hurt.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  1:35:08 PM
If we don't reverse higher soon we are in danger of a short-term trend change to the downside, but with TRIN @ .97 it's hard to envision a sharp selloff, at least that's what my financial advisor is saying... Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:34:07 PM
36.29 QQQ support now in play. The short cycle oscillators aren't yet in a downphase, currently flattening from their up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:31:57 PM
Thank you, Linda.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:30:17 PM
Jonathan, today is the day of FNM's grilling, and some headlines are now beginning to appear about the testimony. Earlier, Raines supposedly noted that experts disagree on accounting rules, defending the company's accounting.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:29:52 PM
QQQ 2-day chart updated at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:26:29 PM
Session high for Nymex crude here at 51.90, +1.57%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:25:49 PM
I forget when Congress is scheduled to grill Franklin Raines, but buyers must be very confident in his oratory skills.

 
 
  James Brown   10/6/200,  1:24:34 PM
Hmm... the oversold bounce in Fannie Mae (FNM) is now into its fourth session in a row.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  1:24:24 PM
There's the buy signal @ SPX 1136... now let's see if it's for real
Benchmarking... SPX = 1136.00

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  1:22:43 PM
CCI readings are perfectly set up for a buy signal... all we need is for MACD to cross back up (it's below the zero line)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:21:30 PM
TRIN is still flat-lined.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:20:52 PM
The TRAN may be turning down into a lower high, but the TRAN is a sneaky thing, reversing just when you least expect it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:20:12 PM
Volume is drying up on QQQ, sinking to its lowest levels of the day. Price is moving down, but with very little conviction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:19:20 PM
At 12:48, I mentioned that the stop-running push (or one, at least) appeared to have arrived an hour early, as it did yesterday. The OEX pushed up above the descending regression channel on its five-minute chart. I mentioned then that bulls did not want to see the OEX slapped right back inside that channel and that's exactly what happened. The purpose of these stop-running pushes is to see if gains can hold (when the push is to the upside) or whether they're met with selling, and this time, they were met with selling.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:15:22 PM
QQQ still won't let go of that 36.35 level, which now also lines up with the rising 7200-tick SMA. Look for a break below 36.29 to kick off a new short cycle downphase. With any luck for bears, it will pack more punch than the last one did.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  1:12:50 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  1:09:35 PM
Caught on the telephone.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  1:08:25 PM
Time to mention the lagging Dow and OEX again. If we can just get these two indices on board the rally train we will see lots of shorts running around at 180 mph with their hair on fire. This would probably coincide with a move above SPX 1140. The SOX is the fly in the ointment today but it could just be resting after ramping from 350 to 400 (+ 14%). As long as we stay above SOX 400 and Nasdaq 1950 the bullish case looks good to me. We have only retraced -1 1/2 points (-33%) of the rally off today's LOD (so far) and everything else looks bullish to me... even the infuluence of higher oil prices. Why would that be considered bullish? Because the market continues to rally despite the rising price of oil, not to mention all the other negative factors that suggest the market should be declining.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:07:57 PM
Session high for silver her at 7.284, +2.42%. HUI and XAU are fractionally positive, with gold down .20 at 419.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:06:35 PM
Rising trendline support is breaking for QQQ, but volume is light.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  1:00:48 PM
Session low for ZN treasury bond futures at 112.031 here. TNX is up 3.9 bps to 4.212%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  12:59:13 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  12:58:13 PM
Rising intraday trendline support is in play at 36.35- now a 6 cent range between 36.35 and 36.41 QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  12:54:17 PM
36.40 and 36.45 acted as important resistance zones yesterday, and today is following that script. A short cycle upphase is in progress but it's tiring just below 30 min channel resistance at 36.47. A short cycle failure here will reconfirm this morning's 30 min cycle downphase- that wider channel is only now beginning to turn up. Bulls need a sustained break of 36.45 to give them their shot at 36.62.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  12:48:20 PM
And here's a stop-running push an hour earlier than expected today, too, just as happened yesterday. The OEX has climbed above the descending trendline off Monday's high. Bulls do not want to see the OEX quickly slapped back while bears want to see just that happen, or perhaps want-to-be new bears might want to see the OEX test its 200-sma and fall back from there. Those in current bullish positions need to have profit-protecting plans in place now as the OEX rises toward the top of its descending regression channel on its daily chart, the 200-sma, and the 9/13 high, with the 200-sma at 547.94 and the 9/13 high at 548.52.

Those profit-protecting plans might include a method to profit from future gains if any occur, in case the OEX pushes above those resistance levels. Conservative traders might elect to take automatic profit as that resistance is approached, if it is, and then step aside for the test, reentering at an appropriate time if the OEX does push through that resistance. I'm not long the OEX, but I think that's the choice I'd make if I were.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/6/200,  12:46:29 PM
FR Board: Speech by Vice Chairman Ferguson
Questions and Reflections on the Personal Saving Rate Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  12:45:33 PM
The TRAN broke above what had looked to be a possible bear flag and now rises toward the day's high. Be watchful as the TRAN approaches that day's high at 3371.72. Market bulls want to see a higher high, while bears want to see a lower or equal high.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  12:44:23 PM
I like what I'm seeing on the 1-min chart. We're walking up the upper b-band punctuated by small bull flags before heading higher. The 1138-1138.50 area is the next level shorts are likely to hit if we get that high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  12:34:08 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $38.18 -1.92% .... off session low of $37.50, where I'd note October's "Max Pain" theory of $37.50 ($2.50 increments)

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  12:33:27 PM
Watch for a short covering frenzy above 1140, but there is a lot of congestion (2 full day's worth) between current levels and 1140 that needs to be worked through first.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  12:30:37 PM
QQQ's having trouble with 36.40, but no pullback either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  12:30:11 PM
TRIN 0.94

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  12:29:20 PM
VIX.X 13.54 -2.15% ... session low. SPX most active options have the Oct. 1,125 puts (4,056 : 19,322), Dec. 1,135 calls (4,025 : 7,359), Dec. 1,135 puts (4,009 : 7,132).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  12:28:45 PM
The OEX approaches Keltner resistance at 545.60. With the exception of a couple of five-minute closes, the OEX has been producing five-minute closes beneath this particular Keltner line since the OEX began falling off Monday's high. If the OEX can't climb above this line now and then drag that line higher along with it, it will have been continuing the Keltner-style bearish divergence that has been forming since Monday's high. The OEX is in an equilibrium position with regard to the five-minute charts, and when it's in an equilibrium position, it sometimes moves more easily across support and resistance lines. So far, that Keltner line is holding, but the OEX hasn't retreated far, either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  12:26:20 PM
Here's a steep volume spike now- largest of day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  12:24:16 PM
QQQ is breaking out on light volume here. 36.40 is resistance, followed by 36.45.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  12:22:20 PM
Never short a dull market comes to mind again.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  12:21:32 PM
Long @ 1134.50, raise stop to 1134.50 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  12:18:37 PM
The Fed's Ferguson is apparently noting that there is some risk to the economy from the current account deficit. I had information that Hoenig and Poole would be speaking today, but not Ferguson.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  12:18:37 PM
If we can just get above SPX 1136.50 the logjam should break. We're slowly drifting higher but we really need to stay above SOX 400 (currently 401.63) and Nasdaq 1950 (currently 1956.29)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  12:15:59 PM
The TRAN's high of the day was reached just before the release of crude inventories numbers, with those inventories below the expected 2.75 million barrel increase. The TRAN then dropped, but now rises in what may be a bear flag on the five-minute chart. Keep an eye on the TRAN for signs that it's breaking higher or lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  12:09:52 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  12:08:57 PM
On the futures side of the Monitor, Keene mentioned some values for the contracts he watches, noting that in-between values were just "chop suey." I consider the OEX's current position to be just that, too, caught within these two regression channels: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  12:05:36 PM
The OEX is attempting to break out of its symmetrical triangle to the upside, heading up to test the descending trendline off Monday's high if it can maintain values above that triangle's top descending trendline, now at about 544.90. The trendline off Monday's high is now at about 545.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  12:04:52 PM
QQQ 100 tick chart updated at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  12:03:21 PM
The bounce on QQQ isn't very impressive, but the pattern of higher lows off the 10AM low is holding and looks to be the dominant force so far today. A bove 36.44, the bulls should have a clear shot at 36.62 resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  12:02:06 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  11:58:18 AM
We have a higher volume spike on this move above 36.30, but it's still wimpy overall, nothing like those 2.6M shares within 100 ticks we saw yesterday. No breakout, and it's reversing now as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:56:29 AM
TRIN isn't going anywhere. Even the advdec line coils.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:54:15 AM
Mark Davis has also noted a triangle on the SPX. See his 11:35 post.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:51:54 AM
The OEX still coils within the symmetrical triangle on its five-minute chart.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:49:18 AM
Stepping outside for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  11:48:48 AM
The flat QQQ pennant is breaking to the upside, but on light volume- could become a rising triangle below 36.30 resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:47:05 AM
Stopped out of short play @ 1135.31, -1

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  11:44:12 AM
The symmetrical triangle Linda notes shows up as a flat pennant on my 100-tick QQQ chart, with resistance at 36.28 and support at 36.18 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:40:34 AM
The TRAN never bounced from 3360, instead drifting below it, but unable to decide which way to head next. As I type, the TRAN is at 3357.38, trading in a tight less-than-five-point range for the last 30 minutes. Keep a watch on the TRAN as it moves fast once it begins moving and sometimes leads the markets.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:39:33 AM
Go short now @ 1134.31, stop 1135.31

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:37:38 AM
The OEX now appears to be coiling into a symmetrical triangle on its five-minute chart, top resistance currently at about 545 and bottom support currently at about 543.75. Bears want to see a break of the bottom support; bulls want to see a break of the top resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:35:44 AM
We've been forming an ever-tightening symmetrical triangle on the SPX 1-min chart since the opening bell. It should either break out or break down within the next 1/2 hour, probably sooner.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  11:34:18 AM
Session low for gold here, down 1.70 at 418.50. Silver is trading 7.16.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  11:33:35 AM
One of those fibonacci fans I posted earlier is showing resistance at 36.28 currently, which has just held on the last surge. A wavelet upphase is just coming to a close, and bears will be looking for a break below 36.15 QQQ. Nymex crude is up to 51.675, holding near the highs, and while I don't think of intermarket relationships in terms of timing, I'm amazed at the strength of equities alongside this oil rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:31:42 AM
API was delayed in releasing crude inventories, but just did so a little after 11:00 EST, with their figures differing as usual from the Department of Energy's. The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stocks rose by 268,000 barrels, far less than the DOE's report of a rise by 1.1 million barrels. The API reported distillate inventories falling by 286,000 barrels, with the DOE reporting a drop of 2.1 million barrels. API reported gasoline stocks declining 337,000 barrels with the DOE reporting those inventories climbing by 600,000 barrels. If I did my math correctly, the DOE reported that gasoline, distillate, and crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels, total, while the API reported a fall of 355,000 barrels. Sounds as if there was a difference in where in the distillation process API and DOE did their inventories, with total stocks perhaps closer than the API and DOE often come.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:28:18 AM
SOX 400 seems to be the sell trigger today. Until we take that number out it's going to be tough slogging for bulls.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:22:01 AM
Above 1136.50 our long play should gain some traction to the upside... above 1138.50 and it should blast off, but there is some hard work to do between here and there. As Marc has noted in the Futures Monitor, SOX 400 and Comp 1950 are important levels and the first step for bulls is to take these levels out decisively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:19:06 AM
AP is reporting a 5.8-magnitude earthquake hitting eastern Japan, with some buildings in Tokyo having been shaken. I see a report that scientists do not expect a tsunami to result, but I don't yet find information about whether there are casualties or property damage.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:16:05 AM
Stopped out of short play @ 1135.00 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:15:02 AM
The OEX appears to be working its way lower with regard to the 15-minute Keltner channels, perhaps toward an eventual test of 542-543. As the 15-minute channels are configured now, 542-542.30 support looks strong enough to hold on 15-minute closes, and perhaps looks strong enough to prevent the OEX from sinking all the way to 542. However, we have to see how Keltner charts align after such a test to see how strong resistance will be afterwards. For now, that level looks good for another bounce attempt without predicting how strong that bounce might be. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in mind as that test is made, however, if it is.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  11:14:49 AM
11:10 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  11:14:03 AM
2-day 100-tick chart of QQQ at this Link . I've attached a fibonacci fan based on the line connecting yesterday's high to today's low. I don't particularly like fans, but they sometimes yield fresh perspective. I'll be switching back to a standard fib grid for later charts unless you prefer I don't. I can be reached at jlevinson@OptionInvestor.com.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  11:07:55 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:05:12 AM
The OEX approached the bottom support of the small ascending regression channel on the chart linked to my 10:45 post, and now heads up again. It's still within this small ascending channel that's climbing within a longer-term (since Monday) descending regression channel on the five-minute chart. No breakout of either channel.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  11:04:27 AM
Lower stop on short to 1135 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  11:02:46 AM
The TRAN is off its high of the day, coming back to touch 3360-ish support with the high of the day at 3371.72. There's potential for a bounce from the 3360-ish level, into a right shoulder on the five-minute chart, but the TRAN sometimes eschews the right shoulder on regular or inverse H&S's and just does what it was going to do anyway, falling or climbing right to the would-be target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:59:34 AM
TRIN back above 1.0 at 1.09.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:58:57 AM
New high for Nymex crude at 51.775.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:58:36 AM
36.20 cracked first, and volume spiked on the sell side. It wasn't a clear directional break, however, but QQQ will remain bearish below 36.20-.22. Bears need to get and stay below 36.10-.12 to abort this attempted short cycle upphase and put some oomph behind the current 30 and 60 min cycle downphases.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:57:26 AM
To reiterate my position, I don't see a place for a new bullish OEX entry here, just below the 200-sma, the top of the descending regression channel from the daily chart, and the 9/13 high. There's too much potential for resistance in that area. A breakout above such a long-term pattern would be powerful and there would be plenty of time to participate in bullish gains after such a powerful breakout, so I'm willing to be patient in consideration of risk/reward parameters that aren't great at the OEX's current level.

My sense today of a heaviness in the OEX after two days of candles that represent potential reversal signals isn't backed up by TRIN or other measures. Risk versus reward does not appear great for a bearish entry, either, just ahead of the bottom of the descending regression channel from which the OEX has been bouncing since Monday and ahead of the 542.30-ish site of the former descending trendline off the 9/13 high. Unfortunately, the channel in which the OEX has traveled since Monday is less than three points wide, so it doesn't give much room for profit as the OEX travels from top down to the bottom again. All morning, I've wished I could in good faith suggest new bearish entries on approaches to the top of the descending channel displayed in my 10:45 post, but unfortunately TRIN doesn't back up my gut feeling and risk versus reward parameters have prevented me from making any such suggestions in good faith. Gut feelings are not good trading partners.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  10:54:35 AM
Now short @ 1135.00, stop 1136.00
Still long @ 1134.50, stop 1133.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:53:49 AM
Du Pont (DD) $43.83 +1.38% .... extends above its 200-day SMA ($43.27)

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  10:53:02 AM
Go short with a touch of 1135.00, stop 1136.00
Hopefully this play is never triggered.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:52:45 AM
This drift lower to the 36.22 level doesn't feel bearish to me- seems to be accumulation, but that's just a guess. We'll when the break comes- it should be on a surge in volume. Note that Nymex crude has just spiked to 51.45, currently down to 51.325. That should be a bearish development for QQQ, all things being equal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:51:36 AM
Disney (DIS) $24.10 +0.87% .... looks to challenge its 200-day SMA (24.14) for first time since falling below on 07/15/04.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:50:23 AM
Combined Telecom (IXTCX) 180.89 +0.26% ... has been finding resistance at its flat 200-day SMA (180.68) the past two sessions. Trying to edge above here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:45:12 AM
Here are the two channels I'm watching on the OEX's five-minute chart: Link For easier viewing, I've hidden the 100/130-ema's, but they're roughly at the conjunction of the midlines of both channels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:45:05 AM
A wavelet downphase is now in progress on QQQ, but it's getting weak traction. The short cycles are turning up, but also weakly. I think a break below 36.20 or above 36.29 will be needed to break the current deadlock.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:39:36 AM
I'm unable to located the estimated level for this week's crude oil inventories, but will post it when I find it. The price has barely budged, and so I expect that it was very close to the actual data.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:36:24 AM
SPX.X 1,135.54 +0.09% .... most active options are the Oct. 1,100 puts (3,040 : 46,607), Dec. 1,150 calls (2,434 : 51,947), Dec 1,135 puts (2,386 : 7,132), Oct. 1,110 puts (2,219 : 16,317).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:35:58 AM
Nymex crude currently down .15 to 50.95.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:34:49 AM
Headlines:

10:31am U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 1.1 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:32am U.S. GAS STKS UP 600,000 BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:32am U.S. DISTILLATE STKS DOWN 2.1 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:34:33 AM
Big push higher in the OEX after it broke above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, but will it stick? The OEX headed toward the top of the descending regression channel off Monday's high and the ascending regression channel off yesterday's low, the two converging near 545-545.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:33:44 AM
VIX.X 13.74 -1.43% .... sharp turn lower from session high of 14.10.

TRIN 1.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:32:57 AM
Bearish day trade stop alert for the QQQ $36.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:31:27 AM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert lowering stop for the QQQ $36.21 -0.42% .... to $36.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:30:26 AM
QQQ is trading both sides of 36.22, but it has yet to break 36.20. A higher low would kick off a new short cycle upphase here. This would appear imminent, except that a wavelet downphase is due. If it trends in overbought, with 36.20 holding for another 5-10 minutes, then we'll know that the short term path of least resistance is to the upside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:28:17 AM
Swing trade covered call alert .... Selling 2 of the Taser Intl. (TASR) Oct. $40 calls (QUR-JH) for $1.05 bid. (1 is covered, 1 is naked)

Earnings are unconfirmed for October 19, before the market. October expiration is October 15.

October "Max Pain" theory calculated at $37.50 ($2.5 increments).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:26:28 AM
GE, MER, and CSCO continue to test their 200-week sma's this week, with none able to break far above those averages just yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:23:59 AM
The OEX tests its five-minute 100/130-ema's.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:21:55 AM
The 10:30-ish release of crude inventories will likely be watched carefully today, although the TRAN, at least, appears to be discounting any worries over crude levels. At 3368.70 as I type, it's less than a point off its high of the day, up considerably over yesterday's close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:20:05 AM
Session low for Nymex crude at 50.85 and for 10-yr treasuries, TNX +2.8 bps at 4.201%.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  10:19:48 AM
Stopped out of short @ 1135.05, -1
Still long @ 1134.50, stop, 1133.50

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:18:58 AM
36.22 QQQ has just been broken, with the declining 7200-tick SMA again being tested, this time at 36.29.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:17:50 AM
The OEX heads up for another test of the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 544.46 and 544.33, respectively.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:15:54 AM
36.22 QQQ resistance is still holding. A wavelet oscillator upphase has kicked off, and I'm surprised by the lack of followthrough to what started as a very sharp bounce off the low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:13:07 AM
Session low for ZN bonds and GE here. TNX is up 2.6 bps to 4.199%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:12:57 AM
TRIN is headed down and not up, working against what my gut tells me. TRIN is usually more reliable than my gut, so don't be making decisions based on my perception of heaviness in the OEX.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  10:12:43 AM
Go long now... 1134.50, stop 1133.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:12:27 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:11:34 AM
Provided that QQQ stays below the 36.20-.22 level for another 10 minutes or so, we should see the 30 min cycle channel turn more steeply down, and roughly 10 minutes after that, the 60 min channel should follow. Current support has slid to the 36.07 level.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  10:10:50 AM
Short @ 1134.05, lower stop to 1135.05

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:10:11 AM
The OEX may be headed up again to test the 544.20-544.50-ish level. The five-minute Keltner chart suggests it will find resistance there, also the location of the five-minute 100/130-ema's.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:07:53 AM
The SOX is below 400, testing that level as I type. Here's a SOX 382-minute chart I've been posting over this last week: Link Note that the right shoulder of the potential inverse H&S building since August has now extended so long that the formation might no longer be valid, but that right shoulder itself is complex, forming its own potential inverse H&S. If it's going to form one, the SOX might try to steady on the blue 100-ema on this time interval's chart, somewhere around 394-395.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:07:27 AM
Nymex crude is back up to flat at 51.10 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:07:06 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart update at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:03:15 AM
OEX bears should have profit-protecting plans in place as the OEX approaches the bottom of its descending regression channel on its five-minute chart, with the bottom of that channel now converging with 543 historical support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  10:02:47 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:02:30 AM
36.20-.22 QQQ is now resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  10:00:51 AM
30 and 60 min channel support have dipped to 36.10, which is being tested now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  10:00:21 AM
The TRAN charged higher again this morning, not fazed by crude over $51.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:59:08 AM
You know, my gut has been telling me all morning this morning that the OEX is likely to roll down from 544.50, perhaps after another rise up toward 546.50, but there's absolutely nothing on the chart that tells me that's going to happen. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX right in the middle of potential support and potential resistance. It's right in the middle of the descending regression channel off Monday's high. It's between 546-547-ish resistance and 541-543-ish support. It's nearer that support than resistance, though, so therefore nearer a potential bounce point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:57:57 AM
The Fed has announced a 2B overnight repo, which results in a net 500M drain against the 2.5B expiring.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  9:57:02 AM
VIX.X 14.00 +0.35% .... Daily Pivot levels as follows ... 13.40, 13.68, Piv = 13.93 , 14.21, 14.46.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/6/200,  9:55:30 AM
A breakdown of the sector of the cubes and NDX: Hardware 37.25%, Software 19.32%, Consumer Services 14.62%, Healthcare 13.72%. The top stocks are MSFT 7.94%, QCOM 5.44%, INTC 5.13%, CSCO 4.75%.

Linda discussed the $GSO on MM. One other sector you should look at besides the SOX and the GSO is the $GHA, since it represents a greater % of the NDX/QQQ. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  9:55:25 AM
Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 587.44 +0.01% ... holds fractional gain, but like many of the majors, DAILY Pivots held resistance on the morning bounce.

RUT.X Daily Pivs.... 584.63, 586.08, Piv = 588.08 589,53, 591.53.

When I'm short, I wan't to monitor ANY strength.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/6/200,  9:52:49 AM
Go short now @ SPX 1134.05, stop 1136.05

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:52:26 AM
The GSO tests its 200-sma this morning. After my comments yesterday that we ought to be watching other sectors than the SOX, too, and after I posted several charts on the GSO, which had been showing some leadership with respect to NDX gains, Tab G. has written me about the breakdown of the sectors on the NDX, and has suggested that we ought to be watching the GHA. A chart should be posted soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:51:19 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick update at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:50:38 AM
Session high for Dec. gold at 421.40, silver at 7.241. Nymex crude is up to 51.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  9:49:11 AM
QQQ $36.27 .... was noticing that the $36.02 level was a WEEKLY R2 for the week of 09/20-09/24, and is very close October's MONTHLY R1 $36.05.

Should be a significan level of near-term support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:47:39 AM
If someone carried over a bearish OEX play, perhaps entered on Monday's test of the 200-sma, the OEX has opened just where bearish players would hope, with the possibility of falling, with such a fall suggesting a beginning of a downturn through that descending regression channel on the daily chart. Be careful of positions, however, since other indices have already broken through their analogous descending regression channels to the upside, suggesting the possibility that the OEX will, too. As a first bearish task for the OEX this morning, you want to see it break below the descending regression channel on the five-minute chart, with the bottom support of that channel now at about 543. Profit-protecting plans need to be in place from that level on down, however, as there's strong bounce potential, particularly between 541.50-543.

If someone carried over a bullish OEX play, perhaps entered at 530-534 or perhaps on a break above the descending trendline off the 9/13 high, today's open is a bit troublesome, but TRIN is so far neutral and the OEX does remain above that trendline off the 9/13 high. You want to see the OEX break above the descending regression channel off Monday's high as a first bullish task this morning, with the top of that trendline off Monday's high now at about 545.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:46:26 AM
A steep bounce is in progress to the 7200-tick SMA at 36.34 QQQ. It has yet to register even on the wavelet oscillator, and will need to hold above 36.30 for at least 2 minutes to do so. A move above 36.40 should start a new short cycle upphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:40:27 AM
So far, the OEX continues to find resistance at the midline of its descending regression channel and at the five-minute 100/130-ema's. If this channel were wider, tests of 544.50 might have been a good bearish entry for a test of the bottom of the channel and perhaps of the former descending trendline off the 9/13 high, now at about 542.25, but that just doesn't give enough downside room to balance risk and reward. Not with OEX options, and especially not first thing during amateur hour, with inflated options prices. Now, if we knew for sure ahead of time that the OEX was going to break through that descending trendline off the 9/13 high . . .

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:38:20 AM
QQQ is down to a new session low of 36.22 - the offer appears to have gapped down on the 100-tick chart, but it could have been my IB feed running behind the eightball.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  9:37:11 AM
Bearish day trade carryover lower stop alert for the QQQ to break even.

QQQ $36.24 -0.33% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:36:41 AM
Dec. gold has ticked back to positive, now up 40 cents at 420.50. HUI is down .47% to 231.59 and XAU is down .34% to 101.94.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:35:51 AM
The OEX may be having trouble with the midline of its descending regression channel off Monday's low, but it's coming up to retest the 100/130-ema's and that midline resistance again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:34:43 AM
30 and 60 min channel support are once again lined up, lower this time at 36.12 QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:34:10 AM
The Fed has a relatively small 2.5B overnight repo expiring today- awaiting the 10AM open market desk announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:33:47 AM
Careful, QCharts users. Charts are running slow this morning, at least on my computer (with broadband connection).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:32:59 AM
QQQ and NQ have joined the move to the downside, but it has yet to violate first support at 36.25. My IB feed has just stalled- a reminder to keep active stops entered.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:32:26 AM
Right now, the OEX is in the middle of the descending regression channel off Monday's high, not a great place for new entries either direction, unfortunately.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:31:00 AM
The OEX opens at the five-minute 130-ema.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:28:23 AM
Session lows here for ES and YM futures. QQQ and NQ are unfazed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/6/200,  9:27:07 AM
Netegrity (NETE) $7.75 Link ... jumps to $10.50 in pre-market after agreeing to be acquired by Computer Assoc. (CA) in an all cash deal valued at approximately $430 million, or $10.75 per share.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:25:06 AM
A sharp spike is showing on the USD Index- 30 min delayed refreshable chart at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/6/200,  9:19:37 AM
Dateline WSJ - On the brink of the influenza season, U.S. officials said they are urging doctors to ration flu shots to the most vulnerable patients after British regulators shut down a plant operated by one of the two major suppliers and the company said it wouldn't deliver vaccines to any market.

The shutdown affects countries in Europe and Asia as well, throwing into disarray an often strained and stretched medical process that every year delivers millions of vaccines against a disease that annually claims some 36,000 lives in the U.S., and between 250,000 and 500,000 world-wide.

The United Kingdom regulators suspended operations at a Liverpool plant owned by Chiron Corp. of Emeryville, Calif., because regulatory officials found the plant's manufacturing process didn't comply with British regulations concerning the sterility of the vaccine.

"It's something that will certainly have consequences in the global market for vaccines," said Klaus Stohr, an influenza expert at the World Health Organization. "It's yet to be seen whether other companies can step in" to make up the shortfall.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  9:09:51 AM
Session low for ZN 10-year bond futures here, with TNX up 1.8 bps at 4.191%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  9:07:37 AM
For three days, European indices have been trading in tight ranges, waiting for something to happen. Here's a picture of the DAX, with Germany's economy being the third largest on the globe: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  8:32:36 AM
Dec. Silver is up to 7.176, just off the highs, while bonds are down to a session low, TNX up 1.2 bps to 4.185%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  8:31:51 AM
Nymex crude is down to a session low of 50.85. We should receive the weekly inventory data later this AM.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  8:31:15 AM
New applications for home loans, the Market Index, was flat last week. The Refi Index is up 2.7%, and the Purchase Index was lower by 2.2% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  8:27:43 AM
The 30 min and 60 min oscillators on NQ futures (QQQ proxy using premarket data) are showing the first upticks in what will be premature upphases. This occurs within the context of a potential bull flag formation on both the 30 and 60 minute charts. My guess is that a break above 36.62 on expanding volume will be the break for which bulls are waiting, and could result in a renewed upside blast.

On the other hand, those upphases are not confirmed, and the premarket action is so far weak, with a short cycle downphase looking imminent. QQQ bears will want a break below 36.14, and will be able to relax a bit if the failure can take out the 36.00-36.05 confluence support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/6/200,  7:47:37 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1135, NQ 1465, YM 10170 and QQQ -.06 to 36.30. Gold is down a dime to 420, silver +.024 to 7.122 (overnight high of 7.184), ten year notes are down .031 at 112.29 and Nymex crude oil is up .075 at 51.175.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/6/200,  7:00:53 AM
Good morning. Overnight markets showed uneven performances, with the Nikkei rising to an eleven-week high, but other Asian markets mixed and European markets down this morning. Rising crude costs impacted performances, with oil-related issues outperforming others on many bourses. U.S. futures rose while the Nikkei traded, but were already easing back toward yesterday's closing levels by the time European markets opened. They've slipped slightly since then as European markets turn lower. As of 6:56 EST, gold was up $0.60 and crude was down $0.03, after having been higher during the overnight session. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Rising oil prices pressured exporters in Japan Wednesday morning while oil producers and explorers gained in earliest trading. The net result was that the Nikkei gapped lower by 60 points. Nintendo dropped lower in earliest trading after yesterday's disappointment. Troubled bank UFJ Holdings also dropped at the open after a news report that the Financial Services Agency would file criminal charges against the company and some former executives for allegedly concealing documents during FSA inspections. The company claims that it is not aware of such planned charges.

After gapping lower, however, the Nikkei climbed, closing up 103.55 points or 0.92%, at 11,385.38 and an almost three-month high. As they had earlier in the day, oil-related issues outperformed many others, with refiner Nippon Oil gaining 2.8%. Electric Power Development Company's IPO was launched and ended the day above its IPO price. UFJ Holdings might have started out in the red, but it was able to eke out a small 0.2% gain, lofted higher by other gains.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.34%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.29%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.21%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.45%. China's Shanghai Composite remained closed in its last day of this week's holiday.

With crude costs climbing in the overnight market, most European bourses show losses this morning. Also hurting sentiment in Europe is a Morgan Stanley downgrade and lowering of price target for staffing company Adecco and lowering of price target on Vedior. Morgan Stanley mentioned offshoring of manufacturing and evidence of temporary jobs being lost as companies rebuild their workweeks as being behind Adecco's downgrade, but said it didn't downgrade Vedior because of its attractive valuation and its specialist staffing niche. JP Morgan cited concerns about European demand when it downgraded some cosmetics companies, including L'Oreal. Gainers include oil majors and automaker Volkswagen, announcing that it had signed up a top executive with DaimlerChrysler and that it would transfer as many as 5,000 jobs to a temporary agency, seeming to contradict Morgan Stanley's reasoning in the downgrade of Swiss staffing agency Adecco.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 showed a loss of 12.20 points or 0.26%, to trade at 4,694.90. The CAC 40 showed a loss of 15.32 points or 0.41%, to trade at 3,754.92. The DAX showed a loss of 7.44 points or 0.18%, to trade at 4,041.27.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/5/200,  9:28:31 PM
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