Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  4:47:57 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Keene Little   10/11/20,  4:18:00 PM
LOL, good one Mark.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  4:12:40 PM
I just got an email from my broker. I've won the toaster oven.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  4:06:14 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's actively.... nothing.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  4:04:10 PM
Buy Program Premium .... DIA $101.10, SPY $112.90, QQQ $35.77

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  4:01:45 PM
Me, too, Keene! (See Keene's 15:49 post.) Give yourself credit, though, because you've been consistent all day about predicting what kind of day we'd have.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:58:19 PM
Now long @ 1124.50, stop 1123.50
Still short @ 1124.50, stop 1125.50

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:57:13 PM
Go long again @ 1124.50, stop 1123.50

  Keene Little   10/11/20,  3:49:10 PM
BTW Linda, per your 3:29 comment, I have to say I'm really good at recognizing a trendless day at the end of the day. I've nailed that one down.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  3:48:53 PM
The OEX moved 0.10 above that 540.80 number that I've typed so often before moving lower again. Tell me again why I'm not suggesting bearish plays on each test of 540-541? Right now, I can't think of a single reason why I'm not except for the reason I started out with this morning: this is a light-volume, throw-away, set-up kind of day. I hope I still believe that tomorrow morning and that I haven't missed the set-up.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:38:40 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1124.50 and break even
Short @ 1124.50, stop 1125.50

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:37:08 PM
Long @ 1124.50, raise stop to 1124.50 and break even
Go short on a touch of 1124.50

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  3:31:59 PM
We may well have an inside-day candle on the OEX today, depending on what happens in the last 30 minutes: Link

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  3:29:28 PM
I'm laughing at Keene's 15:24 post on the Futures side of the Monitor, about wiring 5 round-turn trades to your broker first thing in the morning on days like this to get it over with. Been there, done that. I think one of the skills I'm proudest of developing over the last several years is the ability to (sometimes) recognize when we're going to have a day like this and just occupy myself with something else, such as researching or trying new charting techniques. Of course, unfortunately, I sometimes "recognize" the likelihood that we'll have a day like this when what we actually have is a beautiful trending day.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:24:58 PM
Long @ 1124.50, lower stop to 1123.50

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:21:09 PM
Traders who paid attention to mother TRIN today had the right idea.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  3:19:30 PM
One benefit to often trading the same underlying is that you begin to remember sticking points, and one number that I've typed over and over for the OEX is 540.80. This 540.80-541 level is an important one for the OEX.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:19:04 PM
Today's action is the inverse of what happened on Thursday and Friday. We have a slow grind higher and bears are in denial. Whether it will play out the same way (further gains) will unfortunately only be visible in the rear view mirror. I'm finished going short for the day and will just let the long play ride until/if it gets stopped out. Tomorrow is another story.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  3:13:09 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:12:31 PM
If the Dow is able to crack 10100 to the upside that may trigger some short covering.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:11:01 PM
There's another tweezer top but the last one meant nothing.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:08:59 PM
At this point we can definitely call today's action a short-term trending move to the upside. I've tried three shorts and lost -2 points for my efforts.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:06:16 PM
Stopped out of short @ 1125.50, -0.50
Still long @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  3:05:26 PM
Here we go again... UP. This is not a bad thing really. Sacrificing 1/2 point on a short play for a larger gain on a long play is something I will do any day.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  3:05:22 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  3:00:03 PM
The OEX has this afternoon been testing the 100-sma and 100-ema on its daily chart, both between 540.50-541.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:59:15 PM
Now short again @ 1125.00, stop 1125.50
Still long @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even
There is (playable IMO) bearish MACD divergence on the SPX 1-min chart.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:56:10 PM
Long @ 1124.50, stop to 1124.5 and break even0
I am going to try another short with a touch of 1125.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  2:49:18 PM
Here are some possibilities I'm watching on the SPX's 60-minute chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  2:40:33 PM
The closing of Nymex crude didn't do much for the TRAN. It's still trapped between narrowing Keltner support and Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart. The TRAN trades fairly well in accordance with the five-minute chart's channels, so it's either going to march out in a straight line the rest of the day or break through those narrowing channels. The five-minute chart suggests that down will be easier than up--maybe beginning as I type--but so far today, the TRAN has been maintaining an ascending trendline, and the TRAN has to break below 3330 before it does any damage to the ascending trendline it's been building all day.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:34:01 PM
Stopped out of short @ 1125.50, -0.50
Still long @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  2:32:45 PM
Bidder up on the Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.73 x $9.76.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  2:30:46 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,125.19 +0.27% .... SPX Oct. 1,125 calls bid/ask $5.30 x $6.00 and Oct. 1,125 puts bid/ask $5.00 x $6.00.

Most active so far today are Nov. 1,100 put $11.20 (5,366 : 26,288), Oct. 1,150 calls $0.35 (3,871 : 43,000).

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:24:37 PM
Now short @ 1125.00, stop 1125.50
Still long @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  2:23:49 PM
Netease.com (NTES) $41.11 +5.19% .... stock very strong and looks to challenge its rounding flat 200-day SMA ($42.31).

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  2:22:00 PM
As we approach the closing of Nymex crude, the TRAN pauses beneath next strong 3335-ish resistance and above 3330-ish support.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:19:38 PM
B-bands converging again... we could be setting up for the next move (hopefully UP)

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  2:19:21 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 390.46 +0.24% ... chart with WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Support correlation at 381, resistance 422.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  2:13:37 PM
Some of you have heard me talk about the correlative fan theory with respect to rallies. A rally is generally composed of three trendlines, the first too steep to be sustained, the second also eventually proving too steep, and the third. It's upon the break of the third trendline that the rally is deemed over and a decline begun. This theory works for declines, too, although in reverse, of course. I've been studying the OEX's daily chart today, trying to determine whether the original decline has yet seen three trendlines develop: one too steep to be maintained, etc. I can draw only two so far, with the second not yet broken: Link

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:12:53 PM
Stepping outside for some fresh air again...

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:08:49 PM
I am going to go short again with a touch of SPX 1125. If I don't get that I'll go short later at a higher level.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  2:08:11 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:07:15 PM
Intel frequently triggers a big move on the indices. With that in mind I intend to be both short and long before EOD and will hold overnight.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  2:02:42 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1125.01, -1
Long @ 1124.50, raise stop to 1124.50 and break even

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  1:55:44 PM
Battling inverse and regular H&S formations: I hate to see these, and that's what I'm seeing on the BIX's chart. Here's the 15-minute chart with the potential H&S, with the right shoulder now looking a bit elongated: Link Here's the potential inverse H&S on the five-minute chart, with this formation actually being the shoulder formation on the bigger, regular H&S: Link Obviously, both can't confirm and meet their targets. They could, however, both dissolve. They tell us that bulls and bears are battling it out, and neither has the complete upper hand just yet. Another reason to stand aside, in my opinion. I haven't been sorry so far to have relied on my pre-market scenario rather than the in-the-heat-of-the-day inclination to go short about fifty times!

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:55:08 PM
Now long @ 1124.50, stop 1123.50

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:47:04 PM
We have some bearish MACD divergence starting to show. The short play may just work but if it doesn't I'm still going long with a touch of 1124.50

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  1:46:23 PM
The OEX's 100-sma is at 540.93 an the 100-ema is at 540.66.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:45:00 PM
B-bands rapidly converging on SPX 1124.19... something could be about to blow

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:37:33 PM
I am going to enter a long position with a touch of 1124.50

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  1:34:20 PM
The TRAN has traded right underneath 3335-ish resistance, with that resistance both historical and Keltner. The TRAN is at 3334.14 as I type.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:30:53 PM
stepping away for a few minutes...

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:29:19 PM
That was very irritating. The stop run got me by a measly 8 cents (1124.58) before a huge red candle took it back below 1124. The length of the red candle was enough to convince me it was worth the risk reentering short.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:25:59 PM
Reentering short @ 1124.01, stop 1125.01

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  1:21:49 PM
Watch the BIX. It's trying hard to undo the validity of the potential H&S on its 15-minute chart by running above the top of the appropriate right-shoulder level. (See my 10:54 post.) A move much above 366.10 would make that formation look less likely to confirm, while a slap back from the 366 level would make it look more likely. The BIX is at 365.71 as I type.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:19:32 PM
Here comes the stop running push and it got me...
Stopped out of short play @ 1124.50, +3

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  1:17:47 PM
You know it's a boring day when you have to wear your reading glasses to see candles on a three-minute chart because they're so small. The OEX hasn't yet made it up as far as 540.25-541 to test next Keltner resistance, but it might be trying again as I type.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  1:09:43 PM
The RLX, the S&P Retail Index, gains slightly, although it's mostly just treading water in a consolidation zone above 410. I guess investors are hoping that tomorrow's Redbook Retail Sales figures will be more encouraging than last week's same-store sales figures.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:06:51 PM
We've had minor but definite breaks in INTC and SPX. Both are now on short-term sell signals but it's too early to call it a top.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  1:06:16 PM
We all know that the 200-ema isn't as closely watched as the 200-sma, but sometimes it's important to watch both. Today, the Dow rose within a few dollars of the 200-ema at 10,097 before dropping again. That average now joins with 10,100 potential round-number resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  1:04:11 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  1:02:15 PM
TRIN is slowly drifting lower. I hope readers aren't nodding off with this second by second commentary.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  12:58:54 PM
A test of OEX 540.25-541 appears to be on the books for the OEX, but I'm still skeptical of chart developments in today's trading environment.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:56:00 PM
INTC has just printed a sell signal and SPX MACD has rolled over. It's too early to tell whether this is a short-term top or just a small pullback in a trending move. INTC could already be classified as trending up short-term but SPX will take a while before we will know.

  Steve Tetreault   10/11/20,  12:51:30 PM
The Nasdog dropped to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement this morning (1919+/-) and it filled the GAP where it found some buying interest, the SOX dropped to 384.63 just above the 40sma @ 384.01, and below the 50sma at 385.26 before some buying interest emerged, the Deutsche downgrade on Texas Instruments & Micron placed a headwind on the SOX today and has proved to be a contagion. All in all we seem to be setting up (watching internals) for a late day stop-run and short squeeze in an anemic volume environment, the TRIN/TRINQ are slowly sliding down and the bearish tonality is waning the VXN and QQV are diverging and I’m watching a downward drifting VIX/VXO, and some underlying support in the internet sector, and software patch, if the semi/chips ignite and SOX can breech 390 and the SMH 30.55 we could see the sentiment quickly shift to the upside, I’m also watching the RUT-2000 for signs of beta-play movement.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:49:08 PM
SPX is setting up for a sell signal or a short-term trending move. CCI is setup perfectly... all we need is for MACD to cross back down. Let's watch this one too.
Benchmarking... SPX = 1124.05

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  12:49:06 PM
12:45 Market Watch at this Link

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:45:06 PM
Starting to see some very slight bearish MACD divergence on the INTC 1-min chart. Let's see what happens.
Benchmarking... INTC = 20.59

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:43:46 PM
Since the 11:05-6 AM tweezer top @ SPX 1124.81 most of the impulsive action has been to the downside, followed by slow creeps back up.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  12:40:22 PM
Great information, Mark, on the bond market. (See Mark's 12:30 post.)

  James Brown   10/11/20,  12:39:16 PM
The OSX oil services index is down 2.35% and breaking support at the bottom of its narrow rising channel and the simple 10-dma. The sector is currently testing round-number support at 120 but its overbought MACD has produced a new sell signal. After almost eight weeks of straight gains the group is due for some profit taking.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  12:39:10 PM
The OEX trades exactly in the middle of the bearish half of its five-minute Keltner channels, with those channels themselves flattening, along with the oscillators. When this occurs, we sometimes begin to see false breakouts one direction or another. I'm still questioning whether those tests of the 540 level shouldn't have been bearish entries, but am sticking by my pre-market assessment that trading today would be dangerous and signals perhaps false.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:38:28 PM
Another good thing about a low volatility day like today is that options are relatively cheap, but sometimes things are cheap for a reason.

  James Brown   10/11/20,  12:35:19 PM
Copper prices are hitting another new high at $1.47 a pound yet Phelps Dodge (PD) is down 2.58% to $93.50 after peaking at $97.94 on Friday.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:34:02 PM
The few institutional traders who may be lurking around today are at lunch now discussing devious plans for the stop-running push.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:30:24 PM
Linda when the Bond Market is closed I watch TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund Lehman iShares) as a proxy... currently printing 87.86, -0.09 cents, -0.10%

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  12:22:48 PM
I agree with Keene's "flat is a position today" statement on his 12:19 post on the futures side of the Monitor. Although each touch of 540 this morning had me itching to suggest a bearish entry, I'm leery of trusting signals in an environment in which we didn't have the Nikkei and we don't have the bond markets to help us gauge how the markets are doing.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:21:59 PM
Stepping outside for some fresh air...

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:20:56 PM
Short @ 1127.50, lower stop to 1124.50

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  12:19:46 PM
Although the OEX's 15-minute candles have several times pierced the descending trendline off Thursday's early morning high, closes have been below that trendline, leaving only candle shadows above it. The OEX is being pressed toward next support near 538.70. Fifteen-minute closes beneath that level would set up a potential downside of 537. The five-minute and fifteen-minute charts give mixed signals as to whether the OEX is more likely to decline or rise over the next few minutes, however.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:18:29 PM
There are definitely buyers waiting at SPX 1123 but I suspect they are running low on powder. This is definitely slow action but as noted earlier, energy is being stored up for the next move.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  12:18:04 PM
12:15 Market Watch at this Link

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:15:35 PM
Here comes 1123 again. I'd now give bears a 3 to 1 edge that 1123 will give way... oops! It's a done deal, SPX currently printing 1122.84

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:12:49 PM
If you're thinking about going long I would personally not do it before SPX touches 1124 and even then it would be a risky play until SPX rises above 1125.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  12:09:19 PM
Looks as if Mark and I were both thinking about INTC at the same time, and I'm sure that many other traders are focusing on its upcoming earnings, too.

  James Brown   10/11/20,  12:09:05 PM
OI call play OSIP is bouncing from its simple 40-dma and the $61.50 region with today's 2.25% rally.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  12:08:05 PM
The Nasdaq's 200-ema and 100-sma converge at 1906.08 and 1909.90, just above historical support and the bottom of the ascending regression channel in which it's traded since early August. I'm wondering if the Nasdaq may get parked just above that potential support ahead of the YHOO and INTC earnings tomorrow.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:07:15 PM
INTC has made a nice bounce off it's lows and that will undoubtedly help SPX to hold the 1123 level.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  12:06:02 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   10/11/20,  12:05:50 PM
OI call play GDW is also moving higher to $114.86. Remember that our target is the $115.50-116.00 range.

  James Brown   10/11/20,  12:05:09 PM
OI call play CMI is bouncing a bit and trading back above the $74 level.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  12:05:07 PM
We sat within a few pennies of 1123 for almost 15 minutes before a big white candle took us about 50 cents higher. Unfortunately we are heading right back down to 1123 is short order, making me think it will not hold, although that is a gut feeling more than anything else. 1123 has become a fairly important number due to the length of time we've been hanging around there. We now rise in a shallow bear-flaggish looking pattern on the 1-min chart. Bulls need to press here or bears will grab the ball and run. I'd give it about a 60/40 chance in favor of the bears. This has nothing to do with the fact I'm short(he he he)

  James Brown   10/11/20,  12:03:41 PM
OI put play LLY is still sinking (slowly) despite the fractional bounce in the DRG index today.

  James Brown   10/11/20,  12:02:41 PM
OI put play APOL is breaking down to new nine-month lows today with a 1.8% decline.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  11:54:24 AM
I bet Jonathan is having more fun celebrating the Canadian Thanksgiving than we're having watching today's markets.

  Jane Fox   10/11/20,  11:52:47 AM
Yup you are right - I get all those old westerns mixed up.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  11:50:15 AM
Jane I think that was "Rawhide". (:>

  Tab Gilles   10/11/20,  11:48:20 AM
Watch 1900 on COMPQ: Link

  Jane Fox   10/11/20,  11:48:11 AM
Mark - Wagon Train was where Clint Eastwood got his start.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  11:47:20 AM
Anybody remember the TV show "Wagon Train"? Tell the truth! If the Dow approaches 10000 Ward Bond will be circling the wagons.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  11:45:35 AM
The OEX remains trapped between its 50-dma at 537.35 and its 100-dma at 540.92, a perfect place for a consolidation day after two days of steep declines.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  11:44:33 AM
If SPX 1123 cracks the next thing level to look for is a new LOD @ 1122.14, then a break of Friday's LOD @ 1120.19, however as it relates to market sentiment I believe Dow 10050 and Dow 10000 will be more important numbers to watch.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  11:40:34 AM
Look out... here comes the 1123 line in the sand. INTC making new lows so it may not hold this time.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  11:28:49 AM
The OEX's descending trendline off Thursday's early morning high now crosses at about the OEX's current position of 539.67. Soon after bumping above that resistance, if the OEX does that, the OEX will face stronger Keltner and historical resistance from 540.50 all the way up to 543.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  11:28:06 AM
B-bands are getting a little tight. One good thing about sideways movement is it stores energy. The longer you go sideways the more energy is stored and thus you increase the potential for a large move (and that's what we are all looking for here at OI).

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  11:26:51 AM
The TRAN tests Keltner resistance and historical resistance, but has managed to climb above 3330. If it can produce fifteen-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 3331.57, it might then rise toward 3335-3337.50.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  11:06:45 AM
I have to step away for an errand... back in 30 min

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  11:06:06 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Tab Gilles   10/11/20,  10:56:31 AM
Murphy Oil (MUR) has been in a repeating pattern. Looks likely that it will retest the moving averages on charts. Comparing the MUR to the $WTIC chart, it seems to me at least, that MUR was ahead of the $WTIC tops. So could it be possible that oil has peaked near term? If so any decline in oil will spark a rally in equities? Link

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  10:54:12 AM
The second OEX test of 540 has resulted in another decline. Support tries to gather near 538.40-538.80. Sure has been tempting to consider and/or suggest a bearish play on each of those tests since there's a potential 537 downside target being set on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, since the TRAN is turning down from its test of 3330, and since the BIX perhaps sets up a H&S on its 15-minute chart, but I'm still leery of trusting technical signals in a low-volume environment.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  10:51:55 AM
SPX is flirting with the last swing low. If it takes out 1123 I would consider that to be a fairly strong bearish signal, however as Jane just noted on the Futures Monitor this is also a potential bounce point if SPX makes an intraday double bottom. It has done so while I typed this, currently printing 1123.31. Now we have a line in the sand @ 1123.00

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  10:46:58 AM
Another market indicator worth watching today is Intel, which reports Q3 earnings tomorrow. Market bulls would like to see INTC rally into the earnings report. Unfortunately it was down right out of the gate this morning. On the positive side INTC is trying to bounce off the LOD area with some bullish MACD divergence on the 1-min chart. Bulls do not want to see the LOD @ 20.40 taken out and you can bet this stock is being closely monitored.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  10:46:06 AM
The TRAN tests 3330 resistance again.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  10:45:03 AM
Here's a potential H&S on the BIX chart. Link

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  10:41:01 AM
The OEX has again risen to test the descending trendline off Thursday's high. This time, it looks possible for the OEX to bump above that resistance, perhaps after a further test of support near 539.30-539.50. If it does break through the trendline, it will immediately face further resistance from historical S/R zones, the daily 100/130-ema's, and Keltner lines, up to about 541.50.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  10:34:54 AM
Maverick Tube (MVK) $27.02 -11.05% Link .... Downgraded by RBC Capital Markets to "underperform" from "sector perform."

(see 10:31:59)

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  10:34:11 AM
I will be watching the Dow closely today for signs of weakness because of the "Headline" potential of taking out Dow 10000. That would get people's attention quickly and could change the character of the market in a heartbeat. All seems to be well at this point as Dow approaches round number resistance @ 10100. A new LOD would be the first sign, then if Friday's LOD is taken out people will start getting nervous about Dow 10000. Nothing untoward has happened yet but I wanted to give a heads up to the possibility due to the bifurcated markets. One side will win eventually... we just don't know which side yet.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  10:31:59 AM
Lone Star Tech (LSS) $29.86 -21.8% Link .... oil service equipment maker lower after warning that higher steel prices, which have risen 20% from last year would hurt Q3 results. Now expects net income of $25-$28 million, or $0.85-$0.95 per share, which is well below consensus of $1.36.

The company noted that it uses last in, first out accounting.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  10:25:41 AM
Since completing a tweezer-top formation on Thursday, the TRAN has not dropped far, but it's looking weaker today, dropping below the 3328-3330 support zone. It's attempting to rise now to retest that zone, but it looks in danger of sliding down toward a test of 3300 unless it can get back above that previous support. The TRAN has sometimes served as a good indicator index lately, so this action tests my scenario that today may be just a setup day. If the TRAN comes up to retest that former support and then falls strongly away again, it could pull other markets down, too. I'm just watching for now.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  10:20:21 AM
The OEX does retreat toward 539, as I suggested it might do in my 10:08 post. There's support from 539-539.15, perhaps enough to send the OEX back toward 540 again. We're just zigging and zagging so far.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  10:13:37 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's internals at this Link

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  10:11:18 AM
The sell signal has not aborted yet and MACD is in the process of making a second bearish kiss of sorts. By definition a "kiss" has to touch (at least that's what the girls tell me) but for TA purposes I consider a move toward and then away a kiss. If MACD crosses back up I will probably not consider taking a counter long position until we make a new HOD. At that point we would have to consider whether or not the current rally off Friday's lows was a trending move.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  10:08:52 AM
The OEX pauses beneath the 539.50-542 resistance zone. It may need to retreat to the 539 or 538 levels to regroup before making another attempt.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  10:02:50 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  9:54:25 AM
VIX.X 14.63 -2.79% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows .... 13.04, 14.05, Piv = 14.78, 15.79, 16.52.

TRIN 1.15 -52.4% ...

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  9:49:04 AM
OEX support attempts to firm near 538-538.40 and then again near 539-539.40. At about 540.60, the OEX faces the descending trendline off Thursday's early morning high. The TRIN climbs. The OEX hit the 540-542 resistance level I had hoped to see, but I'm still leery of placing bets on an anticipated low-volume day.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  9:46:27 AM
MACD just crossed and confirmed the short-term sell signal @ 1124.80. If I were not already short I would be going short right now.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  9:44:31 AM
Shortly after the open, the TRAN hit resistance from 3339.60-3342, and it heads down to reestablish support. Market bulls want to see the TRAN produce five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 3335.45, but will feel okay about closes above 3330.

  Mark Davis   10/11/20,  9:44:13 AM
Good morning... we are still holding our short position from Friday.
Short @ 1127.50, stop 1127.50 and break even
SPX is just now trying to print a sell signal in the 1124.75 area although it is not clear yet whether MACD will confirm the signal or do a bullish kiss and head higher. We should know within the next few minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   10/11/20,  9:41:57 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 388.24 -0.32% .... Texas Instruments (TXN) $21.60 -2.08% and Micron Technology (MU) $11.69 -2.74% were downgraded by Deutsche Securities to "sell" from "hold"

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  9:41:20 AM
The SOX trades slightly lower this morning. It's hanging around at an appropriate right-shoulder level for a new inverse H&S, but the day is young yet. That formation tells me that bulls at least have some intent to try to bring the SOX higher over the next days, whether or not they'll be able to carry out that intent. A drop below 380 would probably undo the current potential inverse H&S, formed from the middle of September until the current time, with the head at the September 28 low.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  9:37:23 AM
Remember that the bond market is closed today and that volume may well be light on the equities. I'm leery of trading in that kind of environment because it will exacerbate the usual choppy trading conditions expected after two days of big declines on a Monday of opex week. I'd rather see today set up a better trade for the rest of the week, but the market does not care what "I'd rather." I may be cautious about suggesting any trades today, however. Let's see what sets up, but that's how I'm feeling now.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  9:32:49 AM
On a five-minute chart, support for the OEX looks to be grouping from 537.75-538.45. That looks stronger than nearby resistance. At about 540.60, the OEX faces the descending trendline off Thursday morning's early morning high.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  9:29:55 AM
Let's see if we get an OEX bounce up toward 539.50-542. (See my 23:44 post.)

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  9:24:14 AM
Deutsche Bank has downgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) and Micron Technology (MU) to sell ratings from their previous buy and hold ratings. When downgrading TXN, Deutsche Bank cited the company's commodity product exposure, saying that exposure could cause a decline in gross margins. In a pre-market note, Lehman mentioned continued cautiousness toward analog semis MCRL, LLTC and MXIM.

  Steve Tetreault   10/11/20,  9:23:03 AM
The Nasdog had been the strongest index of late, however since closing at 1971.04 this past Wednesday the Nasdog has been hammered down by a whopping 51+ points as the recent bullish tonality reversed course due to earnings contagions and the surging price of crude oil, and we had seen that the recent underlying support was helped by a subsequent bullish movement in the SOX and the Russell-2000, the most speculative sectors/indexes, and they too have crumbled of late, as the buying interest seems to be waning. The Nasdog lost 28.55 points on Friday and is in dangerous territory, as a further breakdown that could plunge the index back below 1,900...The Nasdog has been supported by the SOX since the snap-back relief rally off of the recent lows and despite the recent weakness we have experienced I believe we could see some underlying support from the SOX today which surely will help to support the Nasdog at least until INTC reports their earnings after the bell this tomorrow; and if I’m correct in my forecast INTC’s earnings will come inline and will be seen as OK, however their forward guidance could portray some weakness, and slowing demand, as we have recent seen anecdotal data pointing and confirming a slowdown and weakening; however AMD recently gave a bullish outlook and posted a forecast for stronger 2004Q4 sales so INTC will be expected to indicate the same or they could be battered for not following suit which is unlikely, a I believe that lower expectations are factored in already hence we need to carefully watch the SOX today for directional indicators...and let's not forget the RUT either (I’m anticipating a possible **key word=Possible** diverging event as we could see a buy-the-earnings report instead of a sell-the-news report as INTC's options traded very heavily Friday as the entire SOX sector experienced a pulled back. Intel is down 36% this year and trading near a 52-week low; and as such we could see some additional selling and/or (Buying if speculators are positioning for better numbers) ahead of the earnings report; and if the guidance is in line, or just slightly better than expected then, it’s possible we could see some significant buying in the semi/ship patch on the premise that INTC and others have been overly battered down and now presents a buying opportunity. On Friday I saw a huge number of October 20.00 puts traded 36,145, and a large number of October 22.50 calls traded 22,278; and with INTC at 20.55, thus we could have seen a large put/writer trying to take advantage of the time decay principle. Time will tell; one thing is for sure, INTC’s earnings will certainly set the tone for technology earnings this week and most likely the overall tonality.

The Nasdog as I have stated has once again become stricken with bearish sentiment and it closed sharply lower Friday and the selling/decline led to a close below the 62% retracement level off of the July-August decline crossing at 1,934. As I mentioned on Friday I was seeing what I would quantify as a manipulative potential reversal today. Based on the large number of futures contracts being bought and the large number of Puts being written; coupled with the holiday condition (Columbus Day) and what I believe will be a very-light volume trading environment. Hence the plausibility and likelihood is high that we could see an orchestrated, bullish tone today, especially if hedge funds attempt to run high-beta and one-directional high-short interest stocks, so please be weary of such a possibility. After the past few-days of profit taking/selling the Nasdog is basically sitting at 1919.97, just below the 10sma at 1921.02 and above the 20sma at 1911.38, if we see additional selling pressure then we could see some support of the 100/200ema’s at (1906.39, 1905.92) and if breeched a retest of the 1896-1902 (40/50ema 1895.76/1894.65) zone could be in the cards thereafter a drop to the 1865-1875 zone of support which is bracketed by the 40/50sma would likely be the next target Nasdog Fibonacci Numbers: Augusts Recent Low, staging point for the recent rally posted on 8/13 equaled 1,750.82 (closing basis = 1752.49), the recent closing high equaled 1971.03 on a closing basis posted on 10/06. So lets utilize the info on a closing basis, we have seen an upward move of 220.21 points, not to shabby at all and as such we have seen a build up of profits ahead of possible event contagions

A 23.6% retracement of the move would drop us to 1,919+/-
A 38.2% retracement of the move would drop us to 1,886+/-
A 50.0% retracement of the move would drop us to 1,861+/-

  Jane Fox   10/11/20,  8:40:34 AM
Happy Thanksgiving to all our Canadian readers.

  Jane Fox   10/11/20,  8:39:44 AM
Dateline CNN - Actor Christopher Reeve has died at the age of 52, a day after lapsing into a coma.

  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  7:02:09 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei was closed Monday for a holiday, but other Asian bourses and European bourses have seen their tech stocks pressured by rising crude. Fears of a disappointing earnings report by LG. Philips LCD also hurt Asian markets, and that after-the-Asian-close report did disappoint. Our futures drifted slightly higher while Asian markets were open, but became slightly more volatile after the European open. They then settled right back into their slightly-higher pre-European open numbers. As of 6:50 EST, Nymex crude was up $0.14 and gold was down $1.40. More detail about Asian and European bourses follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei was closed for a holiday Monday, but record-high oil prices impacted other markets. Asian markets turned in mixed performances, but the bourses most commonly followed in these early morning posts mostly declined. In Singapore, rising oil prices were blamed for shrinking demand for exports, leading the economy into a surprise contraction by 2.3% quarter-over-quarter. The economy had been expected to grow 0.8%.

Across Asia, rising crude costs pressured tech stocks, as did declines by Samsung competitor and LG Electronics and Philips Electronics joint venture LG. Philips LCD. The company's earnings disappointed when released after Asian markets closed. The company expects to see weak prices in computers and televisions into the first half of 2005.

The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.21%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.03%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.61%. After trading in negative territory throughout the morning session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng moved into positive territory during the afternoon session and zoomed higher in the last few minutes of trading, rising 0.48% by the close. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.69%, closing just off the low of the day.

Currently, many European bourses tread water. In the U.K., rising crude and parts costs sent input prices 1.3% higher from August to September. Some techs decline as they did in Asia. Deutsche Telekom fell during early trading due to the combined effects of its announcement that it would sell additional shares, a report that it would enter merger talks with partly-owned Internet unit T-Online, and a downgrade by Deutsche Bank to a hold rating. In other stock-specific news, Danish drugmaker presented information comparing the effectiveness of its Cipralex drug and Paxil. The data presented at the European College of Neurpsychopharmacology claimed Cipralex was more effective. GlaxoSmithKline manufacturers Paxil and sells it in the U.S. under the name Lexapro.

As of 6:50 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 0.20 points or 0.00%, to trade flat at 4,698.70. The CAC 40 had declined 10.99 points or 0.29%, to trade at 3,726.88. The DAX had fallen 0.03 points or 0.00%, to trade flat at 4,015.51

  James Brown   10/11/20,  3:58:39 AM
The news channels are reporting that actor Christopher Reeves, who played Superman, is dead.

Reeves was 52 years old. Evidently he suffered a cardiac arrest at his New York home then fell into a coma and never recovered. (source: BBC)

  Linda Piazza   10/10/20,  11:44:49 PM
On a daily Keltner channel basis, the OEX shows a neutral-to-slightly-bearish bias. As long as the OEX maintains daily closes beneath the daily Keltner line currently at 541.48, the slight bearish tone continues. It will take a daily close above the daily Keltner line currently at 548.57 to change the bias to a neutral-to-slightly-bullish one. That is just above the 200-sma and the 9/13 high, correlating well with those other manners of determining resistance. Until that happens, selling rallies appears to be the best strategy, so let's look for signs of a rally to sell.

Friday, the OEX approached the 537-538 zone that could provide support, although Keltner support lines beneath the current OEX position still slide lower, leaving open the possibility that the OEX could slide along them, too, rather than steady. The opening may help firm up that support or weaken it. At the close, the OEX was attempting a bounce. If that bounce should continue at the open, that support will have more of an opportunity to firm. My hope is that we'll see a bounce up to 541-542 and a rollover from there as an opportunity to enter new bearish positions. For those who prefer traditional methods of determining support and resistance, this resistance zone is one of historical S/R and also currently bounded by the 10-sma on the lower end and the converging 10- and 20-sma's on the upper end. Because this is opex week and there's the potential to see choppy trading conditions after two days of losses, I'm wondering if Monday might be more of a set-up-the-trade day than a trading day. We'll see after the markets open.

I'll continue to treat bounces as countertrend moves until the OEX proves otherwise. What about a new breakdown entry, though? This chart shows one possibility, although I'd label it a riskier one than a bounce-and-rollover entry: Link

  OI Technical Staff   10/10/20,  11:44:11 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.


Market Monitor Archives