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  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  6:30:42 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  6:07:01 PM
Starbucks (SBUX) is trading lower after hours with a surprise announcement that its CEO, Orin Smith, will retire next year. Jim Donald, SBUX's head of the N. American division, will succeed Smith.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  5:50:15 PM
Updated NASDAQ-100 Option chain in same sort order of Open Interest as shown in prior sessions. Link

I've got e-mini NASDAQ (nq04z) trading 1,449.50, up 7.

We don't know if TASR's action was option influenced, but I'm noting that the NDX 1,475 calls (NDT-JT) were most active. This was the contract we wanted to keep an eye on. If prior sellers turn to buyers to close out, could have NDX/QQQ making bigger than expected move. Will see how futures do overnight.

Here's the above NDX option chain (taken from Market Monitor Archive evening of 10/08/04 when NDX closed 1,456). Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  5:02:56 PM
Earnings after the close
SONC est +0.33, actual = +0.34 rev above est, guiding higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  4:47:54 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.03 -0.1% ... $28.18 here.

QQQ $35.95 ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  4:47:05 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  4:39:00 PM
Microsoft just warned of a score of security flaws
The software giant publishes advisories about 22 new flaws, almost half of which are rated critical. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  4:31:23 PM
Alert - Earnings after the close

SONC est +0.33, actual = +0.34 rev above est, guiding higher.

LLTC est +0.32, actual =
YHOO est +0.09, actual = +0.09 inline

Guidance inline with estimates for Q4 ($710M-$760M)

INTC est +0.27, actual = +0.26 MISS
Intel said lower than expected PC demand and inventory markdowns were a problem for Q3. Intel guidance for Q4 = $8.6B-$9.0B. Saying inventory levels have returned to acceptable levels. This could be powering their bounce. Also the headline number was 30 cents but 3.6 cents were from a one time non operating tax benefit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  4:30:09 PM
NASDAQ e-mini futures (nq04z) updated chart with fitted retracement at this Link

Will be interesting to see where they open them up at.

 
 
  Keene Little   10/12/20,  4:28:45 PM
Mark, what we didn't hear right after the INTC earnings miss were all the brokerage houses giving it an upgrade, hoping to hold price up tomorrow. OK, I'm being a little too cycnical here. But how many times have we seen these kinds of after-hours shenanigans get reversed in the morning?

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  4:25:30 PM
Time and sales for Intel is ripping right along at breakneck speed and INTC is nearing $21. Amazing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  4:24:40 PM
QQQ $35.69 -0.16% .... ticks by at $35.86.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  4:24:01 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $30.20 -1.56% ... trading $30.60 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  4:22:51 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Swing trade short the QQQ at $35.45, stop $36.10 initial target $34.80.

Swing trade closed out the 2 TASR Oct. $40 calls at $0.25. (+0.80 per contract, or $160.00).

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  4:17:24 PM
Intel is ramping up despite the miss, currently printing 20.87, + 0.50
What do we know anyway???

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  4:15:32 PM
Alert - Earnings after the close

SONC est +0.33, actual =
LLTC est +0.32, actual =
YHOO est +0.09, actual =
INTC est +0.27, actual = +0.26 miss

Intel said lower than expected PC demand and inventory markdowns were still a problem for Q3. Intel guidance for Q4 = $8.6B-$9.0B

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  4:09:55 PM
AMKR - S&P Equity Research reiterated an "avoid" rating on Amkor and said Amkor Losing Market Share To Siliconware (SPIL)

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  4:08:45 PM
Benchmarking EOD prints...

INTC = 20.37
SPX = 1121.84

Stand by for potential fireworks

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  4:07:55 PM
SBUX CEO retiring

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  4:06:52 PM
Sell Program Premium .... DIA $100.96, SPY $112.50, QQQ $35.72

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  4:05:12 PM
Correction to my 15:01 post: Marc noted that the NDX 200-ema is at 1407.23, not at 1414.54 as I had stated in that post. I knew something was wrong when I checked that number, because the candle didn't quite touch the average. I looked at something wrong there, and I thank Marc for giving me the information so I could correct it!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  3:59:41 PM
The TRAN often adheres fairly well to the Keltner lines on a five-minute Keltner chart. Today, it violated the Keltner channel far to the downside, climbed almost to the mid-channel level before dropping and violating the lower channel again but to a lesser degree (Keltner-style bullish divergence) and then zoomed all the way to the top channel resistance, violating that before pulling back. Last Thursday was similar, except in the opposite direction, with the TRAN violating the Keltner channels far to the upside at the open and then falling all the way to a violation of the bottom channel support by the close. The TRAN is becoming quite volatile these days on a Keltner basis, but I've noticed other big swings whenever it turns down from the top of its descending regression channel over the previous months.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  3:53:47 PM
VIX.X 14.96 +1.69% .... making lows of the session.

SPX 1,121.86 -0.22% .... almost a 5-point swing either side of October "Max Pain" (1,120) today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  3:52:37 PM
Travelzoo.com (TZOO) $63.12 +10.77% ... moves into "zone of resistance" ($62.43-$65.11) from fitted retracement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  3:51:19 PM
BIX.X 364.47 -0.29% .... has been flat lining, and I MEAN flat lining at 364.47.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  3:50:46 PM
Intel quarterly earnings and opex are like gasoline and matches. If you twisted my arm I would say the move will be down, nevertheless I like to put my bias aside and keep my options open both ways. I fully expect one of the positions to be stopped out overnight.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  3:47:10 PM
The OEX turns down again. The 30-minute chart shows a possibility for an inverse H&S to form at the bottom of the decline into this week. That would suggest another decline into the 538-ish level and then an attempted steadying or climb from there, perhaps over the course of several hours. There was bullish divergence as the head was formed, so I think we have to give this potential formation some credence, at least watching for it to be confirmed or rejected.

If this formation were not present, I would suggest that those who do not mind assuming the risk of holding over the Intel and YHOO earnings could attempt a bearish entry as the 540-541 level was tested. However, the drop in crude, if continued over several days, could help the OEX finish forming and then confirm this formation, setting up a test of the 546-547 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  3:44:15 PM
Taser Intl. TASR $38.63 +4.37% .... Oct. $40 call (3,821 : 13,849), Oct. $35 puts (3,518 : 9,391) , Oct. $37.50 call (2,497 : 8,142).

I think that Oct. $40 call action we saw earlier was some close out action don't you? $0.55 x $0.60.

Company reports earnings on Tuesday before the close (confirmed) .. consensus at $0.16 versus $0.04 a year ago.

Also have the HomelandDefenseStocks.com presentation next week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  3:37:11 PM
The OEX drops back into this morning's gap again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  3:34:13 PM
NQ has just flipped positive- there's a chance of a key outside upside reversal for equities.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  3:27:45 PM
The TRAN has moved back almost to the 3340 number around which it's oscillated over the last few days. It's at 3337.87 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  3:24:14 PM
Sigh. This is the move I wanted to see ahead of this afternoon's earnings, setting the OEX up for a play tomorrow, or this afternoon for those souls who don't mind accepting some risk. I can think of two instances in the last month when breakdown plays were offered rather than bounce-and-rollover ones, and it was a bad idea to take either one. On the other hand, Friday's breakdown play was a good one to take. You just never know.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  3:24:05 PM
NQ and QQQ have broken their descending rersistance lines on the 30 min chart, launching from bullish divergences. On this basis, the chart is bullish above 35.52.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  3:12:40 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  3:12:02 PM
The move above 35.62 QQQ has held, but the short cycle oscillators are maxxed out to the upside below 30 min cycle channel resistance of 35.77. Price is currently 5 cents above the 60 min channel line, and bulls will want to see that 35.59-.62 confluence hold for the retest. The current move never saw explosive breakout-type volume, and it's not yet obvious that it won't prove to be throwover. 35.59-.62 is the key level to watch.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  3:10:43 PM
It looks like we may have topped out for the day just above SPX 1124

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  3:06:12 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  3:01:14 PM
The OEX's 100/130-ema's on the daily chart at are 540.65 and 540.59, respectively. Yesterday, the OEX briefly pierced both, as well as the 200-ema at 540.65, before falling back. The SPX back above its 200-sma proves problematic, though, for those hoping to see an OEX rollover near these averages.

One notation: I've long thought that the 200-ema had more relevance for the tech-related indices than it did for some others. Today's bounce on the NDX and the Nasdaq came from near their 200-ema's, with the NDX 200-ema at 1414.54 and the NDX low at 1414.53, and with the Nasdaq 200-ema at 1907.26 and the Nasdaq low of the day just below that. Although I understand that the 200-sma's are more closely watched by some, the 200-ema's are also given relevance by others, including Pring, and they should be watched, too.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  3:01:03 PM
Starting to see some MACD bearish divergence on the 1-min chart

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  3:00:16 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $38.30 +3.45% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:55:48 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,124.77, QQQ $35.71.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:55:21 PM
November Crude futures (cl04x) DAILY Pivots as follows ... $52.66, $53.18, Piv = $53.51 , $54.03, $54.36.

It has been WEEKS since we've seen oil settle back below a DAILY S2.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  2:53:11 PM
The TRAN was an early leader, retracing more than 50% of its decline off yesterday's close by mid-morning, and then steadying at a higher low. It now pauses at an 80.9% retracement of the day's decline off yesterday's close, coming up now to test the descending trendline off Thursday's early-morning high, easing above it now by a few points.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  2:51:55 PM
Session highs breaking out across the board, with volume picking up on QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:51:14 PM
Diamonds (DIA) $101.05 -0.08% .... make it back to DAILY Pivot

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  2:45:41 PM
OEX pausing right in the middle of this morning's gap.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  2:44:23 PM
Nymex crude settled at 52.575 for a key outside downside reversal. Gold, while holding more than 2 dollars above the intraday low, is sporting the same print. The US Dollar Index has made a similar move but to the upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  2:42:46 PM
Here's the post-Nymex push, with the OEX more than meeting the 539 upside target promised by its first inverse H&S this morning. Unless this push is quickly reversed, five-minute Keltner channels now suggest an upside target of 540.95. The OEX has mow moved into this morning's gap. On the move to a higher five-minute high, short-term bearish plays should probably have been closed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:38:47 PM
VIX.X 15.09 +2.58% ....

TRIN 1.74 +43%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  2:38:08 PM
QQQ is making new highs but still on relatively light volume Look for 35.59-.62 to act as support under this move.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:37:16 PM
Brokers and Internet ... both up 0.63% and best levels of session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:36:10 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) .... $37.90 +2.4% ... breaks above yesterday's high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  2:31:46 PM
QQQ is testing the session highs here, with a nominal higher print at 35.62 so far. There was no expansion in volume and the move didn't stick, and so I wouldn't characterize it as a breakout just yet. But the 30 min cycle channel is on the verge of shifting to the upside, and bears will want to see the price back down as soon as possible, preferably back below 35.52 support.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  2:29:15 PM
Long @ 1119.50, raise stop to 1119.50 and break even
Short @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even
I couldn't ask for a much better position to hold overnight... +5 locked in and whichever way it breaks could be big.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:28:35 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $30.64 +0.09% .... October "Max Pain" $32.50 ($2.50 increments) with $30.00 almost identicle.

Have been tempted to sell Oct. $30 puts but haven't.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:26:04 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $29.91 -1.31% .... October "Max Pain" $30.00 ($2.50 increments).

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  2:24:56 PM
Now long @ 1119.50, stop 1119.00
Still short @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:24:32 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $37.50 +1.21% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  2:23:07 PM
The TRAN arches up toward its 11:30 five-minute high as the Nymex close approaches. Keltner resitance gathers near that 11:30 high, as does the 61.8% retracement of the day's decline off yesterday's close. The end result is that the TRAN is being parked just underneath resistance ahead of that close in a few minutes, ready to challenge that resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:22:21 PM
VIX.X 15.25 +3.67% ... has been pinned against DAILY R1. Here's 5-minute chart, which suggests to me we're seeing quite a bit of option expire in play. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  2:19:40 PM
QQQ's still rangebound- classic op-ex week action with long sideways drifts yesterday and, to a lesser extent, today as well.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  2:18:39 PM
Go long with a touch of SPX 1119.50

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  2:17:44 PM
Marc notes in the Futures Monitor that oil is diving heading into the Nymex close. Any close below the 53 level will give bears their key outside reversal day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  2:17:27 PM
SPX has just made a double top slightly below 1119.50.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  2:15:51 PM
I'm tempted to go long here (and may) but I also want to be short overnight and I'm not going to get a better entry than 1124.50 so I'm leaving the stop on the short @ 1124.50 and break even.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  2:12:13 PM
Some serious volatility in the last 45 min... back up toward the top of the range again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:10:08 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  2:09:45 PM
The OEX briefly pierced the neckline of the latest H&S on its one-minute chart, but then immediately bounced back above the neckline again. It's still a battle out there without a clear winner as yet. On a five-minute Keltner chart, the OEX appears to be grinding its way toward a test of the mid-channel Keltner resistance, now at 538.59, but dropping lower as the day progresses, but if it can't produce five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 537.58 . . . whoops, there it goes above that level.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  2:04:09 PM
Another bearish indicator... Intel is only 7 cents above LOD and has been FLAT for the last two hours; not exactly what bulls want to see from a company about to report Q3 earnings. Charts don't lie (most of the time).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  2:03:51 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  2:01:24 PM
As happened with some of the other indices, we saw a lower high on the OEX, but since about 12:45, its one-minute chart has been showing a series of higher lows, too. On the one-minute chart, the formation looks like yet-another potential H&S, showing that the bears haven't given up yet, but as happened last time, the OEX is now in danger of climbing above an appropriate right-shoulder level for that H&S. This isn't a formation you'd want to trade, but rather a way of watching the underlying sentiment in the OEX.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:57:47 PM
Right now I think a break of 1117.50 would be sufficient to spook the herd and a break of 1119.50 would scare the bears possibly trigger some short covering. We're right in the middle of those two targets of course (grin). I keep watching the TRIN and thinking DOWN.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:54:34 PM
This is typical opex scam activity although we made another lower high on that last dip. TRIN is still firmly bearish so I would watch for a break of 1117 to the downside to confirm a very bearish outlook for the rest of the day. A break of 1120 to the upside would negate the bearish outlook but that seems like a very difficult task to accomplish at this point.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:50:00 PM
SPX has printed a fresh sell signal with MACD crossing back down at a steep angle. Keep in mind this is the stop running push timeframe so we have to now guess if the sudden spike was the (failed) test to the upside or if the sudden dip immediately following the spike was the test to the downside. Right now I'm favoring the spike being a failed test of the market's strength.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  1:45:55 PM
Another SPX test of the 200-sma. So far, that test has not been successful.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:44:57 PM
If not already short from 1124.50 I would be going short right now on the "tweezer top" formation on the SPX 1-min chart.
Benchmarking... SPX = 1118.40
I was afraid they might have another surprise dip up their sleeve.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  1:43:00 PM
QQQ has just broken above top of the narrow 10 cent range in place since before noon, but is running into trouble at 35.50. Current session high is 35.60, a sustained break above which should kick off a new 30 min channel upphase in a directional move.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:38:25 PM
Fresh buy signal on SPX but with the 200sma dead ahead @ 1119.90 it may not get far. Still holding the short and not inclined to get long (although I do wish I had taken a long position @ 1117-1117.50)
Benchmarking... SPX = 1118.99

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  1:38:25 PM
Gannett Inc (GCI) is looking vulnerable here after reporting earnings this morning and missing by a penny. A drop under $81, the late September low, may be a bearish entry point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  1:34:59 PM
There's a continuation-form H&S perhaps shaping up now on the OEX's five-minute chart. I don't particularly trust these formations. I would want to see a new low of the day as confirmation anyway. Still, watching this one gives us some way to determine whether bulls or bears have the upper hand over the short term. A push too much above 537.60 would tend to negate the formation and a push above 538 certainly would. Confirmation would occur on a drop below 536.90, but I would want to see a new low of the day before I believed it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  1:31:18 PM
Volume is picking up ever so slightly on the pullback here on QQQ. The new, narrower range looks like 35.37-35.47 QQQ. Nymex crude is persistent here at 53.525, gold now back above 416.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:30:53 PM
TRIN rising again... watch for a break of SPX 1117 to indicate much lower prices. 1117 is also a potential bounce point.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  1:24:24 PM
Many investors will have their eyes on Apple Computer (AAPL) tomorrow. The stock has run from $30 in mid-August to over $40 a couple of days ago. Now shares could be ripe for profit taking. Barron's mentioned that AAPL shares could be overvalued here. Plus, there is a new MP3 player from Creative coming out today to challenge AAPL's Ipod-Mini. Yet rumors are circling that AAPL will unveil a new larger 60-gig iPod with a color screen in time for the holiday shoping season.

AAPL reports earnings on Wednesday after the close. Estimates are for 18 cents a share.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:21:36 PM
It's very tempting to go long again here @ 1118.33. The swoosh down to 1117 and the accompanying -350 CCI reading is starting to look like a well executed "shaking of the tree"... still, TRIN remains firmly in bearish territory @ 2.28 and trying to get cute with a counter long play could be dangerous. We are still +6 with our short from 1124.50 so I'm feeling conservative and more inclined to wait a little longer, especially since the stop running push is dead ahead.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  1:18:52 PM
A big $50-million dolllar weekend for the new animated feature "Shark Tale" has resparked the Dreamworks IPO process. The company plans to offer 29 million shares in the $23-25 range The road show begins soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  1:18:19 PM
QQQ 2-day chart update at this Link . Volume continues to decline on this most recent bounce.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  1:15:30 PM
Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI) Link is down 1.85% after JPM downgraded the stock to "under weight" today. Shares are bouncing from their simple 40-dma near its late September lows. Bullish traders may want to watch and see if WFMI tests support near $80.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  1:14:01 PM
Qualcomm (QCOM) $41.25 +0.09% Link .... acquiring Trigenix. Story at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  1:11:17 PM
The TRAN is attempting a push above the descending trendline off yesterday's 3:00 five-minute high. I'm watching the TRAN so closely today because it tends to be an indicator index of sorts on days such as this. It can also overrun targets, just as the SOX used to do so often back in the mo-mo days, so I take any trendline break with a grain of salt, but it's sure trying to break above it now. Market bears want to see a lower five-minute high now.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  1:10:55 PM
Electronics conglomerate Phillips (PHG) is down more than 5% to $22.38 after a lackluster earnings report.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  1:10:44 PM
INTC is currently on a fresh buy signal but it is hardly inspiring. MACD is flatlining and if the buy signal aborts my guess is the markets will follow down. It's 50/50 right now but we should find out in the next few minutes. If the buy signal holds the markets should also follow up. The buy signal is looking better as I type but I wonder if we will get another surprise swoosh down like the last one. There is also bullish MACD divergence showing on the INTC 1-min chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  1:10:19 PM
Volume has trailed off dramatically on the bounce from 35.38 QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  1:09:17 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  1:03:37 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  1:01:35 PM
Dec. gold held 414 support again, this time with a lower intraday low of 414.10, currently bouncing to 415.40. Volume has trailed off over the past hour, however, with 2496 eminis traded so far. HUI remains weak today, down 2.98% at 228.42.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  1:01:30 PM
Ford (F) is looking weak and nearing support near $13.50. Meanwhile General Motors (GM) is also slipping toward support near $41.00 ahead of its earnings report on Thursday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  1:00:27 PM
The TRAN currently tests the descending trendline off yesterday's 3:00 five-minute high. The TRAN, like many other indices, has settled into a triangle at the bottom of its day's range.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  12:59:37 PM
McGraw Hill Companies (MHP) is cracking resistance at the $80.00 mark in the last minute.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  12:58:48 PM
Earnings after the close

SONC est +0.33
LLTC est +0.32
YHOO est +0.09
INTC est +0.27

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:57:04 PM
Swing trade close out covered call alert .... for those 2 TASR Oct. $40 calls at the $0.25 offer.

May not be worth the $50.00 premium to have to deal with $40.00.

October "Max Pain" Theory is $37.50 ($2.50 increments, but there has been quite a bit of trading in the $40's.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  12:54:20 PM
Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd (VLCCF) is also down 3.75% today to $30.65. Shares are bouncing from the $30 level but volume has been pretty heavy during the last few days of profit taking. The MACD has produced a new "sell" signal.

Oil tanker stocks were mentioned in a negative light in Barron's recently.

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  12:52:33 PM
Ship Finance Intl (SFL) is down 8.4% to $21.07 after Smith Barney cut the stock to a "sell" rating today. SFL runs a fleet of 46 oil tankers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  12:51:23 PM
QQQ has just failed at a lower high below 35.44. It was a weak bounce, more sideways than upward, but the failure is giving us a print below 35.40. Looking for a test of 35.38 now.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:51:02 PM
Wow! That one came out of nowhere... so much for the short-term bullish case. Glad I didn't bite (long) @ 1117.50. As Jane would say, "It's not nice to fool with Mother TRIN."

 
 
  James Brown   10/12/20,  12:50:18 PM
I would suggest that readers strongly consider exiting the LLY put play now. The stock is down another 2.76% and under our secondary target. The gap down was driven by a downgrade to "market perform".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:49:27 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $37.43 +1.10% Link .... Oct. $35 put (3,122 : 9,391), Dec. $40 call (2,048 : 19,224), Oct. $37.50 call (1,414 : 8,142).

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:49:24 PM
MACD just did a bullish kiss so we may be headed higher in the very short-term, but watch out for a potential rollover in the 1118.20 area. 1118.20 could also be considered very short-term bullish confirmation if taken out.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/12/20,  12:47:06 PM
Major support on COMPQ being tested today: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  12:46:24 PM
Nymex crude is back above yeserday's low, up to 53.55 and down 10 cents for the day. With 1 hour 45 minutes to go for this session, bears will be hoping for a close below 53. Bulls will be hoping for anything above unchanged, and preferably deeper in the green to undo the potential bearish gravestone doji daily candle.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  12:44:54 PM
The TRAN pushes off from just above 3300, but it hasn't yet made it above the descending trendline off yesterday's 3:00 high.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:44:00 PM
CCI is setup perfectly for a fresh sell signal on the SPX 1-min chart. All we need is for MACD to cross down and confirm. If you're not currently short this is potential entry point but I would wait for MACD to confirm. That would probably happen with another dip to the 1117.50 area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:37:26 PM
December Gold updated PnF chart at this Link .... first sign of trouble would be trade at $412. Should find support above $412 and that triple-top.

Various commodites unraveling to downside today, especially grains and weighs on gold.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 228.47 -2.96% Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  12:36:51 PM
QQQ updated chart with recalibrated fib grid at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  12:35:53 PM
The TRAN erased almost all, but not quite all of this morning's bounce off the low. It's pausing just above 3300, trying to rise again. As with the OEX, market bears want to see the TRAN produce a lower five-minute high if it does rise, with the previous five-minute high at 3320.20. They'd prefer to see a new low, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  12:33:53 PM
There's again been no new low on the OEX, and it's trying to steady and move higher again. If it does, bears want to see a lower five-minute high, with the previous one at 538.37.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:33:24 PM
SPX bounces off 1117.50 in a bear flaggish looking pattern on the 1-min chart.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:31:16 PM
Taking a look at the SPX 30-min chart I see the possibility of a drop to the 1110 area. Wouldn't THAT be nice for our short?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:28:00 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $38.75 -0.56% Link ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:26:33 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 364.47 -0.29% .... content at WEEKLY Pivot.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:25:17 PM
Next potential long entry is in the 1116.50 area

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  12:23:32 PM
Session low for Dec. gold futures here at 414.40, on heavy volume of 2,423 emini contracts so far today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  12:22:54 PM
QQQ is flatlined just above 35.38- actually, the bounces are coming with each print of 35.40.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:22:34 PM
We got the drop to 1117.50 but I don't trust it with TRIN @ 2.55. I may regret it but will wait to see if we go lower. We have +2 in the bank already and that doesn't count the short play which is currently +7.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:21:47 PM
Career Education (CECO) $28.29 +3.24% Link .... rumors that APOL $67.93 -1.9% Link might be buyer, but analysts say unlikely and would be unlike APOL management to buy a roll-up, but APOL might be interested in a trade school like DeVry (DV) $20.22 -0.68% Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  12:20:04 PM
Coming into today, I was hoping for an OEX bounce from near the open, up to 538-540, to perhaps set up a potential bearish play for tomorrow. Instead, we got the breakdown entry. Those are just risky plays and I don't like them because they so often turn sour. However, at the time, it appeared possible that entry would be all that would be offered. Hopefully, it will turn out to be a good one for those who stuck it out after I advised that traders needed to assess their willingness to tough out a test of 539, as they had risk up to that area. If the SPX shows strength above its 200-sma, if the SOX bounces strongly off its 380-level, if approached again, or if the TRAN zooms higher again, then I'd certainly reevaluate any bearish position, and whether it might be better to step aside and see where the OEX settles out before a possible rollover again. There's always another trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  12:17:55 PM
The short cycle upphase is now stalled for QQQ, and will reverse to an early downphase is bears can get the price back below 35.38 for a few minutes.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:15:04 PM
stepping outside for some fresh Silicon Valley air...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  12:13:47 PM
The OEX has produced a lower one-minute low. First step, although a baby one. It's breaking below the support of its bear flag. Another baby step, needing a follow-up drop below its low of the day. It's also dropping back below its 50-dma, perhaps a bigger step, depending on whether we see a new low of the day or not.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:13:27 PM
I'm targeting the SPX 1117.50 area as a potential entry point for another long play. We'll see how things look if/when we get there. 1117.50 is only a guess at this point based upon the fact that I see a little area of congestion. We could go lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:12:58 PM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,117.81, QQQ $35.42

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  12:10:47 PM
PG Doubling their dividend from 25 cents to 50 cents

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:10:22 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  12:08:22 PM
The OEX is coming down to test the support of its bear flag. The SPX turns back (only slightly as yet) from its test of the 200-sma. The TRAN drops heavily from a 61.8% retracement of the decline off yesterday's close, now below both the 50% retracement and the 38.2% retracement.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  12:07:57 PM
QQQ drifting toward the lower end of the current range above 35.38: Link . Gold has sunk back to its lows, currrently trading 415.20, with HUI down 2.89% currently.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:05:59 PM
Long @ 1116.18, stopped out @ 1119.58, +3.5
Short @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even
Looking for another long entry

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:04:26 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  12:04:08 PM
We got the OEX probe up toward the 538.50 level, and the candle (the last five-minute period's) closed at 538.24 instead of at or below 538.20 as I'd expected. (See my 11:45 post.) Still, I'm fairly pleased to see the information that the combined Fib levels, descending trendline and Keltner lines gave us. What's next? Unless we start seeing some three-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 537.89 but still rising, I don't think the OEX is through testing that upper resistance. Bears want to see the OEX roll down soon and violate the bear flag's support, currently at about 537.56.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  12:00:07 PM
Long @ 1116.18, raise stop to 1119.58
Exit long play with a touch of 1120.18

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  11:55:54 AM
QQQ $35.54 -0.58% .... Link

SMH $30.22 -1.53% .... Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  11:54:32 AM
We're into the bottom of the first (big red) 1-minute candle of the day... amazing but I don't think it can last much longer without some sort of pullback.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  11:54:18 AM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 178.62 +0.05% ... Link edges green after another test of rising 21-day SMA.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  11:51:24 AM
Long @ 1116.18, raise stop to 1119.18

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  11:50:54 AM
I keep waiting for SPX to get above 1119.18 so I can lock in +3 on the long play but it just hasn't happened (yet). If we do get above 1119.18 a dip is almost a sure thing where we could get long again at a lower level.... oops! Above 1119.18, stand by.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:50:18 AM
The tweezer top that printed on the intraday QQQ is a problem for bulls, but so is the persistence of support above 35.38. A break of either the session high of this 35.38 support level should give us our next directional move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:45:31 AM
The OEX retraced almost 50% of the decline off yesterday's close, finding resistance at the descending trendline off yesterday's 3:00 high. I don't think the OEX is through testing those levels yet, but the charts show resistance--historical, Fib, etc.--thickening from 538.20 up to 539.20, but strongest in the 538.20-538.65 range. Based on that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a five-minute candle probe up into the 538.50-ish zone, leaving only a shadow above 538.20, with the candle forming at or below that 538.20-ish area. Remember, though, that this morning's inverse H&S has an upside target of 539.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  11:42:54 AM
I wonder if we are going to see short covering in front of Intel or buying? With all the bad news priced in you might think we could see some buying in hopes Intel will say something positive. But, Intel could also be the last straw for the SOX if they miss earnings or guide lower. Tough to read with Intel trading basically even for the day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  11:41:57 AM
That would be a rally to remember Jim! Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:41:09 AM
QQQ made it to a nominal new high of 35.60 and is back to 35.48. A synchronous short cycle and 30 min cycle setup is in progress, and provided that QQQ stays north of 35.38 support, an intraday upside bias should prevail.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  11:38:47 AM
Surveys showing the election a dead heat at 45/45 with 7% undecided and 3% clueless. Time for Osama to be found.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  11:38:42 AM
TRIN 2.80... if we don't get stopped out of the long play soon I'll be amazed

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:35:56 AM
The OEX tests the descending trendline off the 3:00 high from yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:35:06 AM
The SPX is about $0.40 away from its 200-sma, still testing it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:29:10 AM
Ten year treasuries are declining with oil, with TNX now down 3.1 bps or .75% at 4.102%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:26:37 AM
The TRAN tests the 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:25:41 AM
Current session high is 35.55. 35.53 is providing first resistance for QQQ on this move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:25:38 AM
The SPX pauses beneath its 200-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:24:46 AM
OEX bears do not want to see the OEX retrace more than 50% to 61.8% of the drop off yesterday's close, preferably the 50% level, with those levels at 538.19 for the 50% retracement and 538.64 for the 61.8% retracement. The inverse H&S has a potential upside target just above 539, but bears don't want to see that target met.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  11:23:39 AM
Long @ 1116.18, raise stop to 1118.58
We can always go long again if stopped out and we're overdue for a dip

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:21:44 AM
Yes, the OEX does appear to be reforming its first flag into a wider potential bear flag or perhaps even something more bullish. It's confirmed its inverse H&S, although it's now testing the 38.2% retracement of the decline off yesterday's close and the SPX and TRAN test potential resistance, too. Those who might have entered a bearish position on the premise that the OEX was rolling down beneath the 50-dma should have stops set an appropriate distance above that average and should be watching the SPX and TRAN tests of resistance as well as the OEX's. The TRAN's pattern does not look like a bear flag, but the TRAN sometimes moves quickly and overshoots boundaries.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:20:59 AM
Nymex crude has taken out yesterday's low, currently trading 52.925.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:14:24 AM
The wavelet oscillator aborted its downphase very early, and put in a higher price and oscillator low. That has led to the short cycle finally kicking off its overdue upphase. The 30 minute cycle is still pointed south, but that should change within the coming minutes if bulls can hold at or above the current 35.44 QQQ level.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  11:10:26 AM
MACD has just crossed back up on the SPX 1-min chart. Our next target for the bullish scenario is the little double top in the 1118.31-1118.34 area. If we can take that out the likelyhood of a bottom being in place @ 1115.77 will increase substantially. TRIN remains a problem though... currently printing 2.41

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:06:58 AM
The move to negative territory for crude oil would signal a bearish engulfing / key outside downside reversal on the daily chart if it were to close below 53 (yesterday's low). This rejection at the high followed by a move below the the previous low is extremely bearish when it occurs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  11:05:01 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  11:04:09 AM
The current weakness in QQQ lines up with the rollover of the wavelet cycle from overbought territory. That cycle is above 40% done, but the session lows in Nymex crude at 53.125 here seem to be giving QQQ a shot in the arm.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  11:02:30 AM
There was no new low on the OEX after breaking out of that possible bear flag. That likely means that the OEX is not through climbing in a possible measured distribution climb. There's now a potential inverse H&S on its one-minute chart, with an approximate 539 upside if confirmed by a move above its last 537.59 three-minute high. Those who might have entered a bearish position on a break out of the potential bear flag should now consider whether they wish to get out at a small loss (commissions, spread) or weather a possible push up to 539. Watch the SPX, too, to see if it's turned back below its last three-minute high at 1118.34.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  11:01:27 AM
Kansas City Fed was 48 compared to last months 50 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  10:58:54 AM
10:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:53:11 AM
I've mentioned before that the TRAN could really move once it started, and that's exactly what it's done today. It dropped all the way below 3300, but is now rising tepidly from the low in what appears to be a bear flag. Based on Keltner evidence and Fib levels, I expect it to encounter difficulty near 3312-3314, if it should climb that high. Watch for a TRAN test of 3300-3305 or 3312-3314 concurrent with an SPX test of the 200-sma.

Those OEX traders who are not afraid of breakdown plays could consider a new bearish entry on a breakdown below the bear flag that appears to be starting on the five-minute chart, hopefully concurrent with a TRAN and SPX rollover beneath resistance. Note: The OEX appears to be breaking out of that bear flag, but the SPX has not yet retested its 200-sma. Be aware that this is a risky play that needs to be closely managed if you're considering it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  10:45:37 AM
This bounce has yet to stall the 30 min cycle downphase, but if bulls can hold above 35.38 for another 10-15 minutes, the negative slope of the channel will even out. A move above 35.50 should enough to turn the channel up. Current 30 min channel resistance is 35.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  10:44:32 AM
Intel (INTC) $20.33 -1.35% .... sits just on top of its WEEKLY S1 $20.20 with session low $20.22.

QQQ and SOX.X almost exactly the same as they came fractions from WEEKLY S1s.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  10:41:19 AM
Bulls appear to be getting their upside break, but the short cycle oscillators are taking a long time starting anticipated upphase on QQQ. The wavelet upphase that brought us this bounce is maxxed out. Bulls need to hold above 35.38 to give this bounce a chance to follow through.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:41:10 AM
The SOX stopped it's decline right @ 380.17... remember that number? (380)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:39:05 AM
OEX traders should be watching the SPX as it rises, too, back toward its 200-sma at 1119.90. The SPX is now at 1117.68. If the SPX is going to roll down again, the 200-sma might be the spot at which it will do so.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:38:01 AM
The 9:39AM swing high (if you can call it that) was 1119.05. Watch for a potential rollover as we approach the 1118-1119 area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  10:37:54 AM
Brokers (XBD.X) 126.50 +0.04% and Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 609 +1.33% .... in the green.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:37:07 AM
Whew. Feeling better about my advice not to enter a new bearish position at what now turns out to be near the low of the day, but as the OEX now tests the 50-dma at 537.30, it's possible that it could roll over at any time.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:32:09 AM
If SPX can get above 1117.50 (cash index) a short-term bottom may already be in.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:29:13 AM
The OEX hesitated at the 19.1% retracement of today's decline off yesterday's closing level, at 537, but that's also a known historical S/R level. The OEX has broken out to the downside on a Keltner chart basis on the 5-minute chart, and those bears already in trades will be gratified to see it turning down once again from a test of the breakout level, at a Keltner line now at 537.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  10:27:23 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  10:25:52 AM
The wavelet upphase has just about run its course for QQQ, and it's going to be for the short cycle oscillators to pick up and run the ball. This will coincide with a move above 35.38 QQQ, if the bulls can do it. If not, the next break should test 35.18.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:24:53 AM
Short @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even
Long @ 1116.18, raise stop to 1116.18 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:23:40 AM
The OEX is now trying to break to the upside through the bullish-falling-wedge-morphed-into-descending-regression-channel. I'd want to see a move above 537.22, the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the August low, before I felt that upside break was even beginning to get started.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:22:58 AM
I am going to keep probing for the bottom with long plays and tight stops. We will set the stop to break even as soon as possible. If stopped out I'll look for another entry and we will keep the process up until we eventually find the bottom. We can afford to lose a half point to a point here and there with +8 locked in.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/12/20,  10:21:44 AM
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 22 compared to last months 18. The jump in the headline number was surprising with Shipments falling to 8 from 13, Order Backlog falling into negative territory at -6 from last months +1 and the six month outlook dropping to 23 from 28.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  10:20:52 AM
Nymex crude is down to 53.85 here, up 20 cents for the day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:17:26 AM
Short @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even
Long @ 1116.18, raise stop to 1115.68

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:16:22 AM
The OEX now breaks above the top of the wedge. Quick retracement values for the drop from yesterday's close are as follows: 19.1% at 537, 38.2% at 537.74 and 50% at 538.19. Want-to-be new bears might hope for a rally up to the 50-dma and a rollover from there, although it's also possible that the OEX is just reforming that wedge into a descending regression channel that's going to point down all day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  10:15:05 AM
A wavelet bounce is overdue, but bulls will want to see a move above 35.38 before concluding that this is anything but a pause within a synchronous short cycle, 30 min and 60 min channel downphase on QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  10:14:30 AM
TRIN 2.71 +125.8% .... WEEKLY Pivot levels as follows .... 0.00, 1.00, Piv = 1.82 , 3.20, 4.02.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:13:42 AM
The OEX breaks below that wedge and heads right back up to retest it.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:13:03 AM
Go long now... @ 1116.18, stop 1115.18

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:11:00 AM
There have been virtually no attempts to rally yet... kind of surprising. I'm starting to see some fairly significant bullish MACD divergence on the 1-min chart so we may be getting close to a counter long entry. If we get a decent bounce we can then set stops on the long play to break even and relax.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  10:09:23 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:08:21 AM
The OEX is now chipping away at the lower boundary of the "bullish" falling wedge. It's really now or never for the bulls, as the OEX slips below that wedge.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:07:26 AM
It is tempting to take a counter long position here @ 1116.75 but I'm hoping for one more swoosh down. The goal will be to take a long position as close to LOD as possible. We may be able to bracket the market with puts and calls and lock in +8 or more. That would be a very nice position to be in.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  10:05:48 AM
Below 35.25 QQQ, there's confluence support at 35.18 and stronger support at 34.96.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  10:03:22 AM
Session low for NQ here. QQQ 4 cents away from 35.25 support noted earlier.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  10:02:55 AM
If you are not short already I would look for a rally to the 1117.50-1118 area to establish a new short position, although at this point that looks like a very tall order.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  10:02:14 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:02:14 AM
To reiterate my position, I would not suggest long OEX positions, even if we suspect a buy-the-attempt push will be made. I'm advising caution with bearish positions, too, preferring to see at least a partial retracement of today's steep decline before a new entry is suggested. I might not get that partial retracement, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  10:00:06 AM
If that "bullish" falling wedge on the OEX is going to break to the upside, it better do so soon, because it's risking breaking it to the downside, and the wedge is narrowing. Currently, a break would come on a move above 537.03 and would be confirmed by a move above 537.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  9:58:32 AM
QQQ $35.32 -1.2% ... updated 30-min interval chart with WEEKLY Pivots at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:57:47 AM
Bonds took a spike to a new session high as the Fed released its open market ops for the day- net add of 6B via overnight repo.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:56:38 AM
Decisions, decisions. The OEX is below the 50-dma, but on the one-minute chart, the decline since the first one-minute candle looks suspiciously like a bullish falling wedge. Those usually break to the upside, and I'd expect some sort of measured distribution pattern to form after this morning's decline, so I wouldn't advise a bearish entry right now. Famous last words, right?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:54:16 AM
30 min cycle channel support has run down to 35.42 QQQ, resistance 35.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:49:51 AM
About OEX 537.11 is the 38.2% retracement of the OEX's climb off its August low. The OEX currently tests that level, easing below it as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  9:49:18 AM
It's going to be a real trick trying to find the bottom today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  9:48:57 AM
VIX.X 15.66 +6.45% ... DAILY Pivots as follows ... 14.24, 14.57, Piv = 14.92, 15.25, 15.60.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:48:33 AM
When I look at the SOX's daily chart, I still see a possibility that the SOX could be trying to form yet another attempted inverse H&S. As long as the possibility remains, tech bulls may not be ready to let the tech indices decline too far. The SOX hasn't dropped below the 380-385-ish area that would be an appropriate right-shoulder level, but remains within it, at 384.17 as I type. We may soon get a clue about market direction from the SOX, however, if it should drop below that 380 level. It's continuing to drop as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:46:22 AM
The Fed's open market desk has no expiries today, and so any repos announced at 10AM will be net adds for the market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:45:26 AM
The OEX had been trying to form a bear flag and rise off the day's low, but has now reached a new day's low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:45:26 AM
HUI and XAU are behaving as expected on the weakness in the underlying metals today, down 2.5% and 2.34% respectively. Gold is down to 415.90, still holding the 416 level at which it seems to have stabilized.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  9:42:45 AM
Swing trade short alert for the QQQ $35.45 here, stop $36.10, target $34.80.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:42:25 AM
Nymex crude down to 54 currently, +.35 or .65%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:41:26 AM
The OEX is back above its 50-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:40:52 AM
The TRAN confirmed and more than exceeded the downside target of a H&S on its five-minute chart this morning, dropping all the way to 3317.07, and trying to steady just above that as I type. As I mentioned yesterday, the TRAN looks vulnerable to 3270-3272 at least as it turns down within its ascending regression channel, but we can probably assume that 3300 will be likely support, too. The 19.1% retracement of its climb off the August low lies at 3306.71, too, a possible support level.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  9:36:05 AM
I mentioned earlier it may not take us long to get to the 1115.1116 area. I would prefer a couple of failed rally attempts first and then some settling of dust so we can buy the calls cheaper (volatility premium). This could be quite a volatile day considering it is opex week on top of everything else.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  9:34:40 AM
November Crude Oil futures with fitted retracement and posted WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  9:32:26 AM
Long @ 1124.50, out @ 1122.94, -1.56
Still short @ 1124.50, stop 1124.50 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:31:58 AM
The OEX tests the 50-dma, having dropping below it during the first five minutes but now bouncing back toward it. Careful here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:31:17 AM
QQQ is well below 30 min channel support of 35.57, but the short cycle oscillators are rolling over as well. If this gap down open doesn't boomerang higher almost immediately, we'll see a very steep 30, 60 min and short cycle downphase develop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:30:45 AM
The OEX is testing the 536.50-538 range at the open, at 537.60 and still dropping as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/12/20,  9:30:25 AM
Good morning... well for once we will have a good running start on an overnight play. Obviously we will exit the long play at the bell but the short play will more than make up for any hit we take on the long.
I will be watching for an opportuntiy to get long sometime ahead of the Intel earnings and hold both short and long positions overnight again. The 1115-1116 area should be strong support so that would be a good area to look at for a potential long play. The problem is it might not take long for us to get there.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:27:57 AM
Bonds remain strong this AM, with TNX down 3.9 bps or .94% to 4.094% currently. Gold held the 414-415 confluence, witn a low of 414.60 and futures currently trading 416. Silver is back up to 7.109 after a drop to 6.958.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/12/20,  9:11:47 AM
I took a closer look at the Nasdaq chart. Could be a decisive week as to how INTC reports: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:11:32 AM
Silver has been clotheslined as well, with Dec. silver futures down 29.3 cents or 4.04% to 6.958 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:06:26 AM
I titled the chart linked to my 23:23 post on the OEX "A Tale of Three Averages," and it's possible that the OEX could gap down to open near one of those averages this morning--the 50-dma at 537.35. I just had this feeling yesterday each time the OEX touched 540-541 that I should act on those touches with bearish entries, but the day progressed just as expected, with the expected light volume. Feelings aren't good enough evidence in that climate, and it's better to pass up an entry that turns out to be a good one than risk jumping in on a light-volume day.

Like Stephen, I suspect that we'll see dip-buyers appear, in the 536.50-538 zone for the OEX. I'm going to see what happens at the open before I rush in with suggestions for a breakdown bearish entry on the OEX. I'd like to see an attempt to fill the gap and see how that progresses, if there is a gap. The risk, of course, is that the OEX will tumble straight from the open. I would not suggest long entries, however, for any but adept scalpers.

Those already in bearish positions should give some consideration to profit-protecting plans if the OEX should gap lower this morning and open near 537-538.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  9:01:31 AM
Gold futures just got clobbered, now down 8 to a session low of 415.50 as I type. Look for support in the 414-415 confluence that we remember from the move up weeks ago.

 
 
  Stephen Tetreault   10/12/20,  8:57:37 AM
It appears that we are going to see a GAP-DOWN, then a possible digestion of the malaise as we waffle for 5-15 minutes then I’m expecting the emergence of the dip buyers off of key support levels, watch the SOX and Russell-2000 for signs of buying interest and a possible reversal, we need to keep an eye on CRUDE as this could be a blow-off top on the black gold commodity today (A BUSH, factor, crude needs to slip significantly from the highs before tomorrows debate, and we are seeing increased labeling of the current administration as the big-oil good-old boys club and their so-called unique and ongoing buddy-buddy relationship with the Saudi family, seems that big-oil benefited greatly from the IRAQ war ) if we see the reversal (disclosure I’m SHORT CRUDE this morning) the indexes could catch a bid as money is re-allocated, we saw that oil firms and energy service alone with those in the energy patch were soft yesterday despite the record spot prices. We are seeing a strange divergence this morning as the dollar is soaring (which also could depress crude as crude is paid for in greenbacks) and we are seeing some weakness in precious metals. I'm expecting a late day push in semi-chip land and the Internet patch ahead of key earnings tonight INTC & YHOO, as this market will definitely shift its attention into an earnings expectation mode the next few days/weeks as we start kick off earnings season in earnest today. Special Note: if YHOO stumble after hours, on less then stellar earnings and guidance I’m expecting GOOG will get hit very hard, and AMZN, ASKJ etc. will feel the heat as well.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  8:50:41 AM
Hi Jonathan: Do you have any explanation why the oil and oil services indices (OIX, OIH, XLE, etc.)as well as oil shares have gone down these 2 days even though crude has been hitting new highs (53.55 as I type)? I would like your perspective. Thanks.

Good question, Ken. The short answer is that I don't know, but this might help: As with mining stocks, hedgers can offset longs in one class with a short in the other- I've floated this hypothesis many times in the past. As well, many small speculators don't have access to or interest in the futures market, and so trade the miners/drillers instead. In short, these are separate classes of securities and separate markets and, in principle, trade separately. But, as we know from following the miners all these years, they are joined at the hip, and over time, their charts should remain closely correlated despite occasionally divergent days.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  8:37:09 AM
A 30 min cycle downphase is shaping up on the 30 min NQ futures chart (premarket proxy for QQQ) starting from a lower price and oscillator low. This is action to threaten the faltering daily cycle upphase, while is now stalled. If NQ and QQQ close lower today, we should see confirmation of the daily cycle weakness with a fresh daily cycle downphase, also from a lower price and oscillator high. On QQQ, there's next support at 35.25 below current levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/12/20,  8:05:11 AM
Equities are steeply lower, ES trading 1118, NQ 1427, YM 10022 and QQQ -.38 to 35.40. Gold is down 3 to 420.50, silver -.136 to 7.115, bonds higher by .312 at 112.891 and Nymex crude up .625 to 54.275 off a high of 54.425.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  7:18:33 AM
Good morning. Indices across the globe turned lower in the overnight session, pressured by rising oil prices, an increase in the International Energy Agency's forecast for global oil demand for this year, disappointing economic numbers, and fears about upcoming earnings releases. Our futures held up fairly well during the Asian session, drifting slightly lower, but then plummeted as the European session opened. As of 7:11 EST, gold was down $3.70 and crude up $0.42 to $54.06. More detail about Asian and European bourses follows in the succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened near 11,300, with exporters pressured by recent gains in the yen and crude futures. Sinking into the early afternoon and then spending the rest of the day steadying, the Nikkei closed down 147.54 points or 1.30%, at 11,201.81. Tokyo Electron added to the gloom in the chip sector by saying that orders for its chip manufacturing equipment fell 24% quarter-over-quarter, blaming listless demand for LCD's. Japanese investors sent LG. Philips LCD lower ahead of its after-hours earnings report, a report that showed net profit falling 15% from the year-ago period.

Most other Asian markets turned lower, too, with techs mostly lower across the region. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.80%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 2.61%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 1.05%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped lower by 0.40%. China's Shanghai Composite tumbled 2.03%.

Currently, with crude costs climbing above $54.00 as the International Energy Agency raises its forecast for global oil demand, European bourses fall, too. This morning's release of the important and much-watched ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany also showed a downside surprise. Against expectations of a 36 reading, the index showed an October reading of 31.3, down from September's 38.4. Rising oil prices were blamed for the pessimism. CNBC Europe commentators kept pointing to one bright spot in the economic number, however, with that being the figure measuring current conditions, with that being less negative than the previous month's.

Chip-related and auto stocks dropped. Philips Electronics declined after an earnings announcement that most deemed in line with expectations, with some pointing to the company's outlook as too cautious. Some also noted disappointment with the consumer electronics results. Rumors circulate that retailer Carrefour will warn after the market close, sending that stock lower and also damaging sentiment.

As of 7:11 EST, the FTSE 100 posted losses of 37.40 points or 0.80%, trading at 4,648.10. The CAC 40 posted losses of 40.01 points or 1.07%, trading at 3,687.63. The DAX was lower by 51.19 points or 1.27%, trading at 3,966.63.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/11/20,  11:33:00 PM
Here's what I'll be watching for tomorrow on the OEX: Link What I really hope to see, however, boring as it might be, would be a setup for a trade Wednesday, after we see tomorrow's after-the-close earnings.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/11/20,  11:32:52 PM
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