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  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  8:43:11 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/13/20,  5:51:24 PM
Alert - LRCX warning for Q4 on bookings and earnings

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/13/20,  5:48:55 PM
QLGC guiding to the high end of the range for Q4 EPS at 38-40 cents, revenue inline with prior $140 million estimate. QLGC trading down -$2.00 on the guidance release. Evidently traders were hoping for more.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  4:59:32 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Sold 5 PFE Nov. $27.50 puts (PFE-WY) at bid of $0.40.

Sold 4 NAKED IP Nov. $37.50 puts at the bid of $0.40.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/13/20,  4:50:18 PM
ALERT - NVLS warning for Q4
Warning was for a substantial drop in revenue and a very negative outlook picture.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/13/20,  4:49:35 PM
Earnings before the bell tomorrow

C_ est +0.99 - ABT est +0.53 - KRI est +0.87
CY est +0.04 - BAC est +0.91 - LUV est +0.12
DJ est +0.15 - ETN est +1.12 - NOK est +0.15
GM est +0.96 - FDC est +0.56 - UNH est +1.00
ENDP est +0.21 - FITB est +0.80 - LSTR est +0.58

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/13/20,  4:30:24 PM
Alert - Earnings after the close

AAPL est +0.18, actual = +0.27 BIG BEAT!
PPDI est +0.42, actual = +0.44 +2 beat
QLGC est +0.36, actual = +0.40 (+4 beat)

AAPL raising guidance - two million IPODs shipped

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  4:18:52 PM
Before deciding on a direction for the OEX tomorrow, we'll need to watch what happens in the overnight markets, both with crude and with our futures' reaction to the behavior of Asian and European bourses. The most likely outcome as of the close today appears to be a bear-flag rise into resistance and then a rollover from there. Where would that rollover point be? OEX 536.75 and 537.75 are the 38.2% and 50% retracement of yesterday's range, and most bear flags will break down below a 50% retracement of the precipitous decline that preceded it. In addition, the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the August low lies at just over 537. Today's decline stopped squarely at the 50% retracement, so those retracement levels off the August rally do have some relevance. Therefore, look for a bounce and rollover below 538 for a new entry, with plans to protect profits in the 530 level. A drop below 530 will confirm a double-top formation on the daily chart with a downside target near 512, and I expect the 530 level to be defended. If, tomorrow, the OEX climbs past 538.75, something more bullish may be going on, and bears should probably stand aside for a test of 539.50-542, to see the outcome of that test.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  4:13:20 PM
Huge miss for Sandisk, a fav of the Momo crowd... cratering in AH, currently down -$4.78 and -16.89%

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/13/20,  4:06:12 PM
Alert - Earnings after the close

PGR est +1.69, actual = +1.77
AAPL est +0.18, actual =
LRCX est +0.59, actual = +0.64 beat
MOGN est +0.11, actual = -1.26
NTOP est -0.10, actual = -0.08
NVLS est +0.38, actual = +0.38 inline ex-items
PPDI est +0.42, actual =
QLGC est +0.36, actual =
SNDK est +0.34, actual = +0.29 miss

NVLS saw significant drops in order flow in September

LRCX saw new orders up +5% for Q4, sees further growth ahead

LRCX announcing $250 million buyback

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  4:01:02 PM
Sell Program Premium .... DIA $100.19, SPY 111.64, QQQ $35.66.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:56:07 PM
I agree with Mark's conclusion in his 15:51 post.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  3:54:36 PM
Swing trade sell put alert Sell equal amount (5) of the Pfizer PFE November $27.50 puts (PFE-WY) at the bid of $0.40.

Selling against the long positioin and Jan. $25 calls already held.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:54:31 PM
The OEX does appear to be reforming itself into a broader rising regression channel, a likely bear flag, as I'd suspected it might do. It has finally retraced more than 19.1% of the day's range, but is now retreating right back to that level to retest it. A 38.2% retracement, another possible target, lies at about 536.76. I think, as do many others, that we're seeing nothing more than a countertrend or oversold bounce.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  3:51:47 PM
SOX back above 393.50, SPX back above 1113.50, Dow back above 10000... bulls beware. This is still one very ugly day and I would still be in "short any rally" mode, other than for a scalp.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  3:43:57 PM
Correctamundo, Juanathon!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  3:42:04 PM
Kangitis? Fear of Paul Kangas?

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  3:41:24 PM
SPX has just printed a fresh buy signal @ 1111.50 but until it gets above 1113.50 it is suspect... currently printing 1112.35. I still think Dow 10000 is the most important number of the day... currently printing 9994. "They" really want a close above 10000 to avoid "Kangitis"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  3:38:53 PM
The market certainly feels as if it wants to either tank or rocket higher from here- but in fact volume is quite low and my tick-driven indicators are stalling again. A 30 minute cycle downphase is about half done for QQQ, and the current sideways drift is running clock on bears.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  3:27:36 PM
The wheels are beginning to fall off.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  3:25:44 PM
If MMM drops under the $77.00 mark it would produce a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on its P&F chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:23:58 PM
The OEX is threatening to break down out of the bear flag it had been forming. It may be just reforming into a wider bear flag. Without a new low fairly quickly, that would be my bet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  3:23:05 PM
Support and resistance are very clear for QQQ: 35.78 resistance, below which we should see all of the following tested- 35.61, 35.41 and 35.21. A break below 35.41 will imply a head and shoulders target of 34.65.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:21:53 PM
The OEX 15-minute Keltner line currently at 535.30 has been holding the OEX back each time it tries to rise. The OEX has been touching that line and then retreating. Before the OEX can climb, it needs to show 15-minute closes above that Keltner line.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  3:20:31 PM
You can bet your bottom dollar there will be some serious TA going on after the market closes today. Charts will be scrutinized more closely than a film of Sasquatch (I stole that line from Art Cashin). Significant technical damage has been done and even a miracle ramp into the close will be suspect. The downtrend line from the August low (currently sitting @ SPX 1116.50) has been violated convincingly and the ball is now firmly in the bear's court.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:15:06 PM
The SOX still preserves the possibility of building an inverse H&S on its daily chart.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  3:14:35 PM
Rick, the CNBC commentator, was talking about the 50-dma on oil. Here's a daily chart and a weekly chart of crude oil. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:12:18 PM
James' 15:07 post may be telling us something important. Remember Jane's article a while ago that suggested that commodity-related stocks tended to peak ahead of the commodity itself?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:10:56 PM
The TRAN did fall to its at-least 3270-3272 zone today, with a low at 3272.65. It's trying to climb off that low, but it's having difficulty reaching even a 19.1% retracement, with that retracement at just under 3290. It's trying to round over beneath it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  3:09:01 PM
QQQ is having trouble at a lower high here, with a wavelet downphase recently started. Bears need to keep the price below 35.78, a failure below which will target the session lows for starters.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  3:07:35 PM
Crude oil may be bouncing today but oil stocks are not. There are a number of recent oil-related high-flyers that are all posting new MACD sell signals from overbought levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  3:06:33 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  3:06:30 PM
SPX is on the verge of printing a fresh sell signal on the 1-min chart. Bulls better hope it does not do so or Dow 10000 is history.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  3:05:27 PM
The OEX still climbs in its likely bear flag, still having trouble moving much past the 19.1% retracement of the day's range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  3:02:57 PM
The cash bond market has just closed, with TNX -2.4 bps at 4.078%, a .59% decline for the day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  2:59:26 PM
SPX is trying to roll over just as Dow approaches 10000. We are at a critical juncture here. If Dow 10000 fails that will be headline news. I can hear Paul Kangas now "Dow closes below 10000 for the first time in..." Actually I never listen to Paul Kangas anymore because he irritates the heck out of me but his voice still haunts me. As I type this I see another run at Dow 10000 trying to assert itself. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Dow close above 10000. It's just too important a number psychologically and a close below it would be very negative. We have about 1 hour left and anything can happen but the damage has already been done and I still believe we will crack SPX 1100 before we bottom out, he said, dangling a preposition.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  2:58:16 PM
OEX 534.60-534.73 is looking like decent three-minute Keltner support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  2:56:05 PM
So far, the OEX pauses at the 19.1% retracement of the day's range, at about 535.12.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  2:56:01 PM
02:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  2:50:59 PM
Volume is picking up slightly on the current bounce, but a short cycle upphase has yet to confirm. 35.78 QQQ is key resistance, and the 30 min cycle channel remains down with resistance at 35.80. A failure anywhere below that level would set up a head and shoulders above 35.40 support and reconfirm the daily cycle downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  2:46:37 PM
The OEX met the downside target for the confirmed H&S on its seven-minute chart and it hit the 534-ish support zone. It's now rising into what may settle down into a bear flag or other form of measured distribution. The 38.2% retracement of the day's range lies at about 536.75 and the 50% retracement at about 537.75, also the site of the neckline of that H&S on the five- and seven-minute charts. Bears want to see the OEX roll down beneath one of those Fib levels. That may or may not happen today, but watch those levels. Those currently in bearish positions should assess their willingness to stick around for retests of those levels.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  2:43:47 PM
There goes SPX 1112.50, next hurdle is Dow 10000

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  2:42:10 PM
Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither are large market declines. We may have seen the worst of it for today. The last 1 1/2 hours of trading are normally where the big boys jockey for position. A break to new lows would be extremely bearish but the likelyhood of that scenario decreases with each passing minute. It could still happen but my best guess (and it is just a guess) is that we've put in a low for today. A break of 1112.50 would confirm that and we're getting close. That still does not change my overall bearish bias and I think SPX will drop below 1100 at some point.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  2:38:44 PM
Gillette (G) is testing support at the $40.00 bolstered by its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  2:37:39 PM
I'm hearing speculation from traders about a hedge fund going bust, but I have no reason to believe it's true. Still groping for some external news that coincided with the drop at that time.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  2:33:05 PM
Are you better at devising a trading plan pre-market open or at reacting in the heat of the fray? There's no one right way to be or not be, as long as you know your trading style. I'm definitely better pre-market than I am in the heat of the fray, when I worry about not having enough corroboration. If you'd followed my pre-market suggestions (long over OEX 542, bearish on a rollover through that area), you'd be doing fine today. In the heat of the fray, that neutral TRIN bothered me enough that I suggested even more caution and didn't think we had enough corroboration to be certain of a direction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  2:32:04 PM
Crude oil has just closed at 53.625, +1.125 or 2.14% on the Nymex. Gold is currently up .60 at 417.30, with HUI down 2.18% at 222.95. Still can't find any news on the dollar- perhaps Soros was selling again?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  2:27:43 PM
Surprisingly, at least to me, the Nasdaq has not broken out of the rising regression channel on the daily chart, a channel in which it's been moving off the August low. Historical support at 1900 is joined by the 100-sma and the 200-ema, as well as the bottom of that rising regression channel.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  2:26:22 PM
"They" (whomever that is) are making a valiant attempt to regain Dow 10000, but I suspect that Dow 10000 is now support turned resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  2:21:37 PM
I would be looking for SPX to roll over any time now.
Benchmarking... SPX = 1112.26

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  2:20:10 PM
TRIN 1.22 ... just traded DAILY S1

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  2:20:04 PM
I was watching the USD/JPY when the dollar fell off a cliff, and the USD/JPY immediately leapt right back onto that cliff. Waiting to see now if the cliff crumbles beneath it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  2:20:00 PM
I can find nothing in the news to justify the dollar drop, and other than technicals, my guess would be that it's speculation or maybe even an advance rumor as to one of tomorrow's numerous market moving economic reports, including the trade balance, import and export prices, and initial claims. But gold is up for the day and oil is now up for the week- a dramatic turnaround.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  2:16:30 PM
Will the SPX's 100-sma hold? That average is at 1112.51, and it's not quite holding as I type. Others have noted the 50-dma below, but it might also be significant that the 200-ema is at 1100.65.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  2:16:04 PM
Any word on the Dollar...it fell of a cliff 30 min ago. Steve

Steve's observation can be seen on the delayed USD Index chart at this Link . I was driving back to home when it occurred and missed whatever news there was. Digging for it now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  2:13:27 PM
02:10 Market Watch at this Link

Please rememeber that my futures quotes are 30-minute delayed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  2:13:06 PM
If the indices were to close right now, it would be on fresh daily cycle sell signals. The outlook is bearish below 35.78 QQQ on that basis.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  2:09:47 PM
Back. My warmest thanks to Bell Sympatico for another round of wasted calls with incompetent technicians and hours of downtime. I'll be switching from ADSL to cable as soon as possible and working from home in the meantime.

QQQ is bouncing from the 78.6% retracement line connecting yesterday's low to today's high. The short cycles are very oversold and the wavelet is trying for an upphase here. It will take a break above 35.67 to get a short cycle upphase started, but the 35.78 support line should now provide stiff resistance. Note that for all the excitement, QQQ is back to yesterday's range- classic op-ex gyrations.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  2:07:48 PM
Big reversal back higher in oil .... $53.75 $1.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  2:05:38 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  2:03:13 PM
In hindsight, somebody made a very crafty move after Intel's Q3 report... throw just enough money at Intel to cause a short squeeze that lifts all the markets and then bring the hammer down at the opening bell. Whatever you think about "da boyz" you have to admit they are very good at their game.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:59:10 PM
The OEX has now met the approximate downside target for the H&S that I showed on the chart linked to my 13:33 post.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  1:58:49 PM
SPX 1,110.02 -1.05% .... Nov. 1,005 puts $2.10 (16,586 : 16,029), Nov. 995 puts $1.65 (16,314 : 2,281), Oct. 1,035 puts $0.05 (15,100 : 80,202) are most actives.

VIX.X 15.53 +3.18% ....

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  1:58:00 PM
Honeywell (HON) is also breaking down. Today's failed rally at $36.00 has turned into a breakdown under its seven-month old trendline of support (higher lows). HON is also breaking down under its simple 200-dma. Earnings are expected on Oct. 20th.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:55:52 PM
If you shorted the market at the open with SPX October 1110 puts you have a 3 bagger. Not bad for a 3 hour trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:53:08 PM
A move below 530 on the OEX will confirm a double-top formation on the OEX's daily chart, setting up a downside target near 512, but I would expect a bounce from anywhere near the current 534-ish level down to 530. Bears need to have profit-protecting plans in mind.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:52:03 PM
The only support I see now for SPX is the 50dma @ 1107.48

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:45:22 PM
In my Monday Wrap, I noted the inside-day candle on the Dow's chart and suggested that the Dow might find it easier to retreat toward 9,950-10,000 and the midline of its descending regression channel than to rise. It's approaching that 9,950-9,980 possible historical support and midline of its descending regression channel. We should be able to count on at least a tepid bounce attempt or steadying at that level. That midline also forms the neckline for a roughly formed H&S on the Dow's chart with a right shoulder that's out of proportion. A sustained push below the neckline, then, would likely set up a test of 9800. At least. However, if I were in a bearish Dow-related play, I'd have profit-protecting plans in place now.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:43:00 PM
Interesting... SPX is bouncing but the Dow is not. At this point I would think the Dow is the more important market to watch as a close below 10000 would be "Headline News" and not good for the incumbent in tonight's debate. Even if the Dow manages to close above 10000 the damage may already be done. I'm thinking SPX sub-1100 is in the cards now (not necessarily today though).

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:37:11 PM
The Dow is still in "throwunder" territory. It isn't over yet but the vertically challenged lady is clearing her throat.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:33:27 PM
Finally a H&S that confirmed: Link The downside target for this one is about 533.60, with the OEX headed straight down there.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:32:48 PM
We're now below yesterday's swing low (1115.77) and currently printing 1113.15 with a big red bearish engulfing candle on the SPX daily chart. I hate to say "I told you so" but I told you so. The last hurdle for bears to conquer is Dow 10000 which "should" be defended ferociously. If not then there is nothing left for bulls to hang their hat on.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  1:32:37 PM
Biogen/Idec (BIIB) $57.67 -3.59% ... really getting hit.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  1:29:26 PM
Dow-component MMM is looking weak again. The stock is back under the $78.00 mark and has broken its rising trendline of support from March. This is looking like a put candidate again but earnings are on the October 18th

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  1:29:26 PM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,114.28 , QQQ $35.64

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:28:11 PM
OEX traders who were brave enough to enter a bearish play on a rollover below 540-542 this morning, despite my cautions, are feeling better now. The five-minute Keltner chart sets a possible downside target of 535.82 unless the OEX can pull itself up above the Keltner line currently at 537.06 at the close of this five-minute period. The OEX may be at that target before I can finish typing!

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:24:06 PM
There goes SPX 1116.50... bulls better press right now or it's lights out. To be "fair and balanced" this is also a potential bounce point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:23:03 PM
The OEX negates the potential inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. RSI lied this time.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:22:01 PM
New LOD for the Dow... if the Dow can print a double bottom here fine, but it isn't looking good at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:20:29 PM
Unless the OEX pulls up quickly, it's going to negate the potential inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. That's the kind of day it is. That right shoulder is already looking a little out of joint.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  1:18:09 PM
200-day SMA alert .... United Technologies (UTX) $90.82 -1.62% Link ...

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:17:46 PM
Dow is 4 points off LOD

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:15:43 PM
I wonder where the markets would be today without the semis. They just made a little double top @ 395. Bulls better hope that isn't an early warning sign.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/13/20,  1:10:42 PM
Earnings after the close

AAPL est +0.18
LRCX est +0.59
NTOP est -0.10
NVLS est +0.38
QLGC est +0.36
SNDK est +0.34
PPDI est +0.42
MOGN est +0.11

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:09:41 PM
The SPX, OEX, DOW and TRAN all have rudimentary inverse H&S's trying to form at the bottom of the day's decline. Some are better-formed than others, but none have yet confirmed. They may not. They show us that bulls are trying to pull things together and avoid crashing lower, but the formations could still be rejected just as earlier continuation-form miniature regular H&S's were. Still, bears should be watchful, especially with the TRIN still skating along near 1.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  1:07:09 PM
The TRAN is slipping beneath 3300 again, still just testing it at 3299.47 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  1:07:05 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  1:04:56 PM
It escaped my attention until just now but Dow 10000 is within spitting distance and would probably coincide with SPX 1116.50 or so (the uptrend line off the August low). Bulls really need those two numbers to hold as we already have a confirmed H&S on the SPX pointing to 1078. We need to get back above 1120 to negate the formation.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/13/20,  1:02:42 PM
Murphy oil MUR heading down as I indicated on MM 10/11/2004 @ 10:56:31: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  12:59:58 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/13/20,  12:59:39 PM
VXN bullish engulfing candle so far today: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  12:57:03 PM
The OEX needs to pull up now (537.69) or it's going to negate the potential inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. Just pulled up as I typed.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/13/20,  12:55:58 PM
XLB testing 50ma- Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  12:54:45 PM
NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index (VIX.X) 21.94 +4.82% .... pegged against WEEKLY R2 since 11:50 AM EDT.

Weekly Pivot levels as follows ... 18.14, 19.33, Piv = 20.08, 21.27, 22.02.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  12:49:47 PM
Cell Genesys, Inc (CEGE) is down 13.2% to $7.38 after the company issued an earnings warning last night.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  12:49:22 PM
VIX.X 14.81 .... edging back a bit from mid-session high of 15.03.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  12:49:12 PM
OEX bulls were able to avoid confirmation of a miniature H&S on the one-minute chart. Now they may be trying to firm up an inverse H&S on the five-minute chart. Note that there was bullish price/MACD divergence as the head was formed. Note also that the RSI has already formed, confirmed, and then retested the neckline of an inverse H&S. RSI sometimes leads the price, although use this knowledge to help you watch for confirmation, not as an absolute guarantee. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  12:48:17 PM
IP $39.27 -2.41% ... see that spike of volume 222,000 5-minutes ago? Matches same time of Oct. $40 puts. Expiration looking.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  12:46:52 PM
IP .... Oct. $40 puts (IP-VH) really seeing some action all of a sudden.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  12:44:50 PM
Nucor (NUE) is being hit by the sell off in metals (steel) too. Yet NUE is also suffering (-5%) from a downgrade to "sell". NUE is due to split 2-for-1 on October 18th.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  12:44:48 PM
Finally we see a little uptick with SPX currently printing 1119.19. SPX is back above the apex (1118.25) of the earlier 1-min symmetrical triangle and back above the last swing high (just below 1119). Next resistance is the neckline of the daily H&S @ 1119.40, then the 200sma @ 1120.03 and finally the 10:52 swing high @ 1120.60. You can group these three together and call them 1120, which should be strong resistance. In the time it took me to type this SPX has rolled over again and is now back at the apex of the symmetrical triangle, currently printing 1118.20. Still a very ugly day and not likely to get much better IMO. Watch for a break of the daily uptrend line from the August low (1116.50) to trigger an acceleration to the downside. If/until then the 1120 area remains a serious hurdle for bulls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  12:40:51 PM
James, reportedly commodities and commodity-related issues were being sold in Japan last night, too. (See James' 12:37 post.)

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  12:37:48 PM
Ah... looks like news that China's economy is slowing and its demand for copper is falling is the culprit.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  12:36:48 PM
Phelps Dodge (PD) is down 7.7% to $84.65.

 
 
  James Brown   10/13/20,  12:36:20 PM
Wow! What happened to copper? The December contracts for copper have fallen 16.8 cents or 11.6% to $1.28 a pound.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  12:29:23 PM
This day is just plain ugly. "Hoooooooow ugly is it?" you say.
It's so ugly that if we put it in a sandbox the cat would cover it up.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  12:29:21 PM
The OEX has risen high enough that I think we can consider the miniature H&S on the one-minute chart to have been rejected. Score one very minor victory for the bulls.

I'm not making predictions today, but noting things to watch. That's not because I'm avoiding making a decision, but because I think the market action warrants that kind of cautiousness. I've said from the open that some indicators weren't coming together the way we'd like to see them to support either a bullish or a bearish OEX play. I noted last night that the OEX was likely to pause in the 537.50-538 area even if it did roll down below 540 and that those seeking new bearish positions should be aware of that likelihood and should watch TRIN for guidance before entering a play. You wanted a bearish TRIN level to avoid the increased chance that the OEX would find support at that right shoulder level and move up or just linger for hours there.

There just hasn't been the corroboration we'd like to see among different elements of the market to support a play either direction. Futures are different--they don't have this speeding-up option decay (if in front-month options, as I suspect some readers might be) and the wider spreads. They can profit on smaller moves. They accept more risk for that privilege, but we options traders (OEX, at least) can't jump on every move that might benefit a futures trader. Sometimes we OEX traders have to sit out and let them have the fun! Actually, despite some recent fun days, overall the OEX hasn't been much fun to trade for a while.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  12:23:34 PM
Swing trade sell naked put alert .... selling 4 of the Intl. Paper (IP) November $37.50 puts (IP-WU) for $0.40 at the bid.

IP $39.29 -2.36% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  12:19:28 PM
The OEX is doing its best to reject that miniature H&S on its one-minute chart, heading up now to retest the head level, but before it can successfully climb, it needs to begin showing five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 537.89. While the OEX was consolidating near the day's low, five-minute Keltner resistance lines were separating, making that resistance look a little less firm. Keltner resistance does still gather from 538.43-538.81.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  12:14:01 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  12:13:25 PM
The SPX uptrend line off the August low currently sits @ 1116.50 and appears to be the only thing holding this market together. Link
Bulls are sitting on a one-legged stool.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  12:12:27 PM
The OEX's one-minute chart shows a miniature H&S with the OEX having just tested the confirmation level. If it's going to reject this formation, it needs to do so now by zooming back above the head level, with the head at 538.44. It's a little difficult to pinpoint the exact neckline as the OEX candles have twice violated the one I'd think most appropriate, with the five-minute candle bodies then forming above the neckline and leaving only shadows below it. Taking all candle shadows into account, it's now at about 537.39, but descending slightly.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  12:04:47 PM
Earlier I stated that the "Intel indicator" was usually very dependable and also normally resulted in large market moves. I also noted this was the first time I could remember where the Intel indicator didn't work... Well, guess what? The Intel indicator is alive and well, and although Intel's miss isn't showing up in the stock (yet), it is certainly having its effect on the market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  12:01:55 PM
The TRAN is trying to motor up to retest 3300, but gears are grinding.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  12:00:10 PM
SPX has just printed a fresh sell signal on the 1-min chart. The last swing high never even reached 1119 before forming a rounded top and rolling over(remember the neckline of the confirmed daily H&S is @ 1119.40). There was a nice little symmetrical triangle on the 1-min chart with the apex @ 1118.25. We have now broken below the apex with SPX currently printing 1117.69. The bar has been lowered again and if we cannot get back above that apex @ 1118.25 the bearish case will be further reinforced (as if it needed reinforcing). Keep in mind also that bears who took a position any time during the first hour of trading are now sitting on FAT profits and not likely to be shaken out of their positions easily. Conversely, bulls who took a position almost any time today are now underwater. The only bulls who are in the green today are those who nailed the LOD. I suspect there are very few of those and even they have very marginal profits, not to mention being nervous.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  11:59:56 AM
Bears will be hoping that three times are a charm for the 35.78 QQQ support line. The short cycle downphase is still in progress, but there's a slightly higher low printed on the wavelet oscillator resulting from the current uptick we're seeing. It's frustrating to be dialed down to subatomic timeframes, but the slow, narrow range requires it. Meanwhile, TNX continues to trade flat in light negative territory, bonds just above unchanged, while gold is down 3.60 at 413.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  11:51:29 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  11:46:56 AM
Monday night in the Wrap, I suggested that the TRAN looked as if it had vulnerability down to 3270-3272 at least. If it doesn't pull itself back above 3300 soon, we may see that downside target reached. The TRAN is at 3295.38 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  11:46:44 AM
QQQ failed at the 35.95 level noted earlier, forming a rectangle between 35.78 and 35.95. The 30 min cycle downphase continues, with channel support lined up with the 60 min channel bottom at 35.64. Channel resistance is at 36.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  11:46:19 AM
TRIN 1.01

VIX.X 14.96

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  11:39:27 AM
The OEX rises toward 538.85-539-ish Keltner resistance, but it's doing so in a form that looks a lot like a bear flag.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  11:37:55 AM
Bulls should keep in mind that as long as SPX stays below the 1119.40 neckline we have a confirmed H&S pattern on the daily chart with a downside target of 1178... Link
I would definitely keep a close eye on the 1119-1120 area as a potential reversal point with some nasty consequences for anyone long the market. There is only one way to describe today's action... BEARISH until proven otherwise.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  11:31:07 AM
The OEX's ascending trendline off yesterday's low has not yet been violated. The last twenty minutes, candles have congregated along that line, trying to build strength and climb, perhaps into a bear flat that rises to test Keltner resistance that's now slipping lower, down toward 538.90. That rising trendline is at about 537.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  11:29:49 AM
Volume has dropped off on QQQ for this bounce, stalling my tick-driven indicators. There's a slight Macd and TRIX divergence on the short cycle oscillators, but the intraday trend remains lower and there's little sign of strength- aside from that double-bottom noted earlier.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  11:28:09 AM
The TRAN has slipped just below 3300.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  11:24:45 AM
The OEX's five-minute Kelner chart shows significant resistance trying to gather in the 539-539.23 region, with closer resistance at the Keltner line currently at 538.46. Support tries to gather just underneath the OEX position. Chart-wise, those who might have entered bearish positions on an OEX rollover out of the 540-542 region this morning still look okay. Those traders were warned to expect hesitation and perhaps an attempted rise from the 537.50-538-ish region, so nothing unexpected is happening here. However, the TRIN's level and pattern should make those traders wary, as it didn't support the play at the rollover and still isn't saying terribly bearish things about the market. If the OEX does attempt to rise and finds resistance where Keltner charts suggest it will, that's great, too. If it doesn't, though, resistance thins out above that, and the OEX could rise high enough to retest the neckline for the potential inverse H&S. It's possible to draw several different versions of that neckline, but the safest and highest one now crosses at about 542.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  11:20:46 AM
Bulls received a major "Freeway Salute" this morning, the minute they opened their eyes. Link
SPX is bouncing weakly off the uptrend line from the August lows. If we see another rollover from below 1120-1121 and then a break to new lows I would say the party is probably over for a while.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  11:16:21 AM
Bears need to be careful here- QQQ has put in a double intraday bottom at the 35.78 support line. While the cycle setup is snarling bearish here, the buybots love to buy these intraday setups. If QQQ breaks the previous intraday high of 35.95, intraday bears will want to be out of the way.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  11:13:10 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  11:12:08 AM
30 min and 60 min channel support are lined up for QQQ at 35.66 currently. The short cycle downphase is not yet oversold, with only the wavelet cycle trending at the bottom of its range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  11:09:30 AM
Daily MACD has made a bearish cross from below signal on the Dow's daily chart. On the Dow's sister index, the TRAN, MACD lines approach but have not made a bearish cross, and that cross, if it occurs, would be made from above signal. MACD on the Dow Jones Utilities ($UTIL on QCharts) has not touched, but has been trending higher with brief touches or crosses since July.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  11:06:16 AM
Session high for bond futures here, session low for the Dow and SPX futures. TNX has just flipped negativev, -.1 bps at 4.101%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  11:05:58 AM
11:01 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  11:03:02 AM
The sea of green among European bourses doesn't look quite so green, with the CAC 40 barely clinging to positive values as it approaches its close and with the FTSE 100 now negative. All are well off their highs of the day.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  10:58:24 AM
There is a potential H&S on the SPX daily chart... neckline is @ 1119.40, 200sma is @ 1120.04 and downside target is 1078, which closely correlates with the May and July lows (1076.30 and 1078.80). Link
SPX is currently bouncing off the neckline/200sma but watch out if it breaks below 1119.40, and especially if it takes out yesterday's swing low @ 1115.80

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  10:56:25 AM
As some might have mentioned earlier, the SPX is engaged in a test of its 200-sma, with the SPX just above that average as I type. The 200-sma is at 1120.04 and the SPX is at 1120.29.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:54:04 AM
IBM (IBM $85.41 -0.68% .... lower after Smith Barney said that while it expects IBM to report in-line Q3 results on Monday, the company has announced few services signings of late, which suggests full quarter bookings of $10 billion will be below firms estimate of $14 billion. Smith Barney cuts fiscal 2005 to $5.39 from $5.50 (consensus $5.51) and 2006 estimates to $5.74 from $5.85 (consensus $5.92). Left rating at "hold" and target of $95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  10:50:27 AM
The TRAN has fallen below an ascending trendline built off yesterday morning's low. It sometimes overruns targets, but unless it quickly reverses, this is another sign of weakness. The 3300 support level is just below, with the TRAN at 3312.42 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  10:49:05 AM
The current drop stopped at yesterday's 3:31PM high on QQQ, and is now working on former support at 35.89. A short cycle downphase is in progress and is roughly 60% done, but it's succeeded in rolling the 30 min cycle to the downside from overbought. Any bounce that fails below 36, to a maximum of 36.14, should confirm the 30 min cycle weakness- the lower it fails, the stronger the downphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:47:19 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 539.23 (unch) .... feels/looks like a "Max Pain" trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:41:35 AM
NASDAQ-100 October options .... 1,425 puts $3.40 (366 : 3,924) and 1,450 calls $5.00 (233:3,510) are the two most active.

1,475 calls $1.00 trade 2 contracts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  10:39:56 AM
The OEX didn't wait around to form a right shoulder for its potential H&S on its five-minute chart. Instead, it dropped directly into the 538-ish level that's appropriate for a right shoulder for the potential inverse H&S on its 15- and 30-minute charts. Last night, I advised any who took bearish entries on a rollover out of the 540-542 zone to be prepared for a pause or even a bounce from the 538 level. I thought we'd at least see a consolidation period through several 15- and 30-minute candles in this zone before the OEX decided if it was going to round up into a right shoulder and honor that potential inverse H&S or if it was going to drop and negate the formation. Bearish traders should then be prepared for a possible hesitation here. Note: If you're in October options, hesitation through several hours is not going to do your position any good. In addition to basing hold-or-not decisions on options on the OEX's position, also base it on options prices during opex week unless you've spent throwaway money on a lottery-type play you intend to let run.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:38:12 AM
China Automotive (CAAS) $7.40 +37% ... percentage gainer. Never heard of them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:33:28 AM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,118.80 , QQQ $35.81

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:31:21 AM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $13.10 -9.7% .... bugger was $16 5-days ago.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:28:35 AM
Phelps Dodge (PD) $85.11 -7.23% Link ... October "Max Pain" $85 ($5 increments)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:27:26 AM
Alcoa (AA) $31.82 -4.12% Link .... "basic materials" getting hit hard today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  10:27:03 AM
There's now a potential for a regular H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart. TRIN never did support a bearish entry on a rollover beneath OEX 540, but those who might have entered a bearish position anyway should now be prepared for a potential move up toward 540.50-540.80 to retest that zone. Bears hope to see the OEX roll down from that level and confirm the H&S with a push below 539. The downside target, if met, would be about 536.40, so this would constitute a retest of yesterday's low, and would negate the potential inverse H&S shown on the 15- and 30-minute charts. It would be below the appropriate right-shoulder level.

We have dueling inverse and regular H&S's, then, and trading is often not an easy endeavor when we see these.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:23:16 AM
QQQ $35.89 +0.56% ... BIG volume in the Nov. $34 puts (QAVWH) $0.40 (157,183 : 127,878).

VXN.X 21.51 +2.77% ....

I think big put seller calling a bottom at $34.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:19:52 AM
VIX.X 14.68 .... back above WEEKLY Pivot.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  10:19:33 AM
The TRAN had begun its own inverse H&S on its 15-minute and 30-minute charts. As the TRAN sometimes does now that it's the mo-mo index, it charged up without ever pausing to form the missing right shoulder. It did not meet the upside target of that would-be inverse H&S, though, and it's now back below the neckline, heading straight down to the would-be right-shoulder level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  10:17:48 AM
Bonds remain only lightly weaker at 4.113%, +1.1 bps today. Looks like the Fed's repo money went mostly into stocks yesterday, and is coming out today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  10:17:10 AM
The TRAN has now erased the morning's gains and is at the low of the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:13:51 AM
Morgan Stanley High Tech (MSH.X) 454.84 +0.9% .... session high found sellers at its conventional 50% retracement of 458.78.

Breadth positive at 29 to 6 with YHOO +4.49% Link , INTC +4.38% Link , BRCM +3.49% Link ...

ACN -13.01% Link , EDS -1.14% Link , IBM -0.67% Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  10:11:15 AM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart updated Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:10:55 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  10:08:45 AM
Look for support at 35.93, followed by 35.79-.82 QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  10:04:29 AM
That inverse H&S still looks like a possibility for the OEX, seen on the 15-minute and 30-minute charts. It's still lacking a right shoulder, though, so even if it's going to form and then eventually confirm, and then eventually meet its upside target, all unknowns at this moment, the OEX might need to pull back toward 538 or so to form that right shoulder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  10:01:57 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  9:58:43 AM
The Fed has announced a 4.5B 5-day repo, for a net drain of 1.5B today. There's still time for an overnight repo to supplement it- if the Fed goes further, I'll post the update.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:58:39 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $39.14 +1.18% Link .... Possible "bullish triangle," but need a trade at $40 to get it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  9:55:00 AM
A wavelet downphase is bottoming here above a session low of 35.98 QQQ. If bulls can't break the prior high of 36.14, we should see a short cycle downphase kick off.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  9:52:07 AM
This should have been posted a few moments ago, but broadband access went out for a few moments:

The OEX has now retraced the entire first five-minute candle, and now edges into this morning's gap. This morning's gap higher was a breakaway gap, a gap as the OEX broke out of the bull flag it was forming yesterday afternoon. That's a bullish event in itself, and those kinds of gaps frequently aren't retraced. Therefore, if the OEX retraces more than half this morning's gap, I'd considered that it's erased some of the bullishness suggested by the presence of the breakaway gap. This morning presents some confusing developments, though, with the "leading indicator" indices the SOX and TRAN showing some strength by some measures. The TRAN just charges higher and the SOX, while pulling back below 400, has yet to have retraced a significant portion of that first five-minute candle. The TRIN doesn't support any bearish conclusions, either, so traders might be extra cautious with the conflicting information from these various studies.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:49:25 AM
VIX.X 14.34 -4.71% ... DAILY Pivot levls as follows .... 14.38, 14.64, Piv = 15.16 , 15.42, 15.94.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:47:21 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $29.60 -0.87% ... edges below 3-day support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:45:24 AM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,607.75 -0.02% .... reverses earlier gains, edges red here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  9:44:48 AM
Precious metals are a little less precious this AM, at least relative to the USD. Gold held a 410.60 low and has bounced to 412.80 currently, but HUI is down 3.17% to 220.63 and XAU is down 3.27% to 97.39.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:44:13 AM
WEEKLY Pivots All but the SPX/SPY have traded their weekly pivots.

Oil Index (OIX.X) 392.63 -1.45%, Oil Service (OSX.X) 116.95 -1.44%, Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 270.09 -1.22% provide drag on SPX/SPY.

Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 220.68 -3.17% weak again today

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  9:42:30 AM
The TRAN is holding near the first five-minute high and even pushing above it, but the OEX isn't. It's retraced more than half that first five-minute candle. The TRIN doesn't support anything in the bearish line just yet, but be careful about considering bullish plays. The OEX came right up to 542 and then turned down. Those wanting new bearish plays and willing to accept the opex risk, which could be significant, will want to see a rollover now, and will want to see TRIN rising as the rollover is accomplished, but remember that there could be significant support in the 537-539 range, too. The 30-minute reverse H&S remains a possibility, since this morning's first push has left only a candle shadow above the neckline. Watch the SOX, too, as it tests 400.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/13/20,  9:39:22 AM
This is the first time in my recollection that Intel has missed estimates and the market has rallied. Usually the market scrutinizes their forward guidance like an Alan Greenspan speech and makes large moves up or down depending upon what they say, assuming they make their numbers. This time it not only makes no difference but the market is actually going the opposite direction. Go figure.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  9:38:59 AM
QQQ has just pulled back from a session high of 36.14, currently trading 36.05.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  9:35:18 AM
QQQ is driving higher above its short cycle, 30 min and 60 min channel limits. Unless this is the start of a vertical trending move, it should at least pause long enough for the cycle proxy channels to catch up. The short cycle oscillators are maxxed out to the upside, and QQQ is right at former strong confluence support of 36.11-.14. This area should act as resistance now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:35:18 AM
Sell Prog. Premium ... SPX 1,127.01 , QQQ $36.13

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  9:34:20 AM
The TRAN is in breakout mode when studied on a five-minute Keltner chart. We saw this action on the opposite side of the Keltner bands on Thursday and Friday, with Thursday's downside violation carried through in earliest trading Friday, but then soon reversed. Today, we're seeing the upside test of the Keltner boundary carried through on the opening with a breakout. Market bulls don't want to see it quickly reversed. They want to see the TRAN hold 3337.70 on pullbacks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:31:51 AM
Swing trade bearish stop alert for the QQQ $36.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  9:31:03 AM
The OEX opens and climbs straight into that 540-542 zone. Be careful if considering a position early this morning and be aware that options prices are likely inflated.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  9:30:17 AM
Bear in mind that yesterday saw a large infusion (6B) of cash from the Fed via its open market desk. I'll be watching for this morning's announcement to see whether the liquidity party will be extended or not. 6B in overnight money expires today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/13/20,  9:29:58 AM
QQQ $36.05 .... It is going to be close to my bearish stop of $36.10 in the opening minutes and early support will most likely be $35.93-ish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  9:20:20 AM
As Keene has already pointed out this morning on the Futures side of the Monitor, this is an opex Wednesday. Those are days when we sometimes see a direction change, but it's hard to pinpoint right now what a change in direction would be. Maybe just that there is a direction? Be careful with positions. Those who want to take a position today could use that OEX 540-542 zone as a demarcation zone, as I pinpointed earlier, but be aware that breakout plays to the upside may not be any more reliable than breakout ones to the downside have been lately.

Watch the TRAN today. Lately, the TRAN may have been trying to tell us one of two things: that the rise in crude prices was transitory (or interpreted as being so) or that the economy is doing better than many think it is. The TRAN can serve as an advance warning of an improving economy and we know it reacts to crude prices, too. If crude continues to pull back today, we may get further feedback on those two possibilities. Market bulls will want to see the TRAN reach again toward the top of its descending regression channel rather than continue to retreat away from that resistance. So far, crude prices have always found support on each pullback at or above the previous swing high's peak and have always found support either at the 50-dma or 100-dma. The 50-dma currently at $46.29, and the previous peak on the last swing high on the daily chart was at $47.93, so crude prices could pull back below $50, into the $46-47 range and still not have violated that rising trendline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  9:10:02 AM
The US Dollar Index continues to drive higher, drilling down crude oil (-1.76% to 51.575 currently) and gold (-5 at 411.70). Refreshable 30 min delayed USD Index chart at this Link.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/13/20,  8:48:51 AM
If rates continue to climb could that spell trouble for the REI? Maybe buying the Profund RRPIX will hedge your REITS & bonds. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  8:25:59 AM
Session highs for equities across the board, with ES 1127, NQ 1453.5 and YM 10115.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/13/20,  8:15:43 AM
Equities are green this morning with ES trading 1126.5, NQ 1452, YM 10109 and QQQ +.28 to 36. Gold is down 3.20 to 413.5, silver -.208 to 6.85, bonds -.156 to 112.6719 and Nymex crude -.625 to 51.875.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/13/20,  7:45:07 AM
Good morning. Tech stocks generally performed well in Asian and European markets, although Japanese semi-related stocks came off their morning highs by the end of the session. Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. A French retailer, second only to Wal-Mart in sales, warned after the close yesterday, raising concerns about consumer demand in Europe. Still, with the exception of Russia and Norway, all European bourses trade in the green. Our futures have responded with modest gains. More detail about Asian and European bourses can be found in succeeding paragraphs.

Intel disappointed: Intel beat estimates. Take your pick, because both results have been reported. Chip-related stocks in Japan chose the happier interpretation pre-market and helped gap the Nikkei higher in earliest trading. Yahoo's earnings sent Internet-related stocks higher. Crude did its part, too, trading lower in after-hours after having dropped more than 2% Tuesday. However, investors took a second look at Intel's earnings report, and the Nikkei could not hold onto the morning's gains, with the afternoon's open confirming a H&S that had been formed during the morning session. The Nikkei ended at the low of the day, down 5.82 points at 11,195.99. Some also attributed the afternoon selling as a preventive measure to avoid margin calls by those who bought on margin as markets had hit year highs in April. Declines in commodity-related issues also weighed on the Japanese bourses.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, with tech stocks generally performing well. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.28%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.22%. Singapore's Straits Times was flat, gaining 0.01%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank 0.60%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.16%.

Currently, European bourses trade in the green. Techs have been credited with leading the indices higher, and declining crude prices have helped airlines. Chip-equipment maker ASML helped the techs, reporting Q3 sales that were down from Q2's, but also reporting an expanding order backlog. ASML was cautious about its ability to meet Q4 gross margin projections, but despite the caution, ASML was rising in early trading. Philips Electronics climbed despite a Morgan Stanley downgrade after its disappointing outlook, including its outlook for its chips division. Another chip-related stock, Micronas Semiconductor, reported a slowdown in orders and suffered losses.

Turning to another sector, retailer Carrefour did warn yesterday after the closed, as it had been feared that it might do. The company, called second only to Wal-Mart in sales, tumbled. It collected downgrades or trimmed estimates from several brokers, and its warning had broad implications for consumer demand.

As of 7:43 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 16.70 points or 0.36%, to trade at 4,664.60. The CAC 40 had gained 23.81 points or 0.65%, to trade at 3,712.54. The DAX had gained 42.59 points or 1.08%, to trade at 4,000.19.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:42:32 AM
Precious Metals Bullish % (BPPREC) Dorsey's Precious Metals bullish % was unchanged at 72% bullish.

Good gravy! From 12% to 72%?!!!! Might be a little "overbought"

Here's my updated $HUI.X with fitted retracement and zones at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:35:29 AM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) Bar chart I'm working on with a conventional (blue) and fitted (red) retracement at this Link

I don't like the wider zones above $32.08, but this is about all I've got to work with right now. I could probably create a "bearish" retracement by anchoring at a high and dragging down a 38.2% to derive tighter zones.

Still, I do like the way the RED 61.8% at $34.09 seems to tie in with that one gap, so it might be in play. First sign of strength is a close above $32.08.

Today's action saw Dorsey/Wright's Semiconductor bullish % (BPSEMI) remain unchanged at 26.58%. Still "bull alert" status and would take a reading of 34% to achieve "bull confirmed" status, or a reversing lower reading of 20% to reverse back to "bear confirmed" status.

Still keeping an eye on Maxim Integrated (MXIM) $42.67 -0.88%, which was a NASDAQ-100 component and semiconductor bullish % component to have recently given a PnF buy signal ($45). Thinking.... if semiconductors are ever going to get going, this supply/demand chart should hold together.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/12/20,  12:05:12 AM
e-mini NASDAQ-100 (nq04z) latest tick at 11:45 PM EDT was 1,449.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/12/20,  9:21:31 PM
With Intel and YHOO earnings out of the way, OEX traders can begin using the 540-542 zone as a demarcation zone for both bullish and bearish trades. Bears can use rollovers beneath 540-541.50 as bearish entries, with tight stops set above the host of moving averages in that zone. Those include the daily 100-ema and 10-, 20-, and 30-sma's, as well as other MA's on intraday time frames. Wait for the rollover and keep that stop tight, however, as there's a possibility that the OEX is forming an inverse H&S on its 30-minute chart. If that H&S completes and then confirms, it sets an upside target near 546.

Those seeking a new bullish play might plot the neckline of that inverse H&S and consider new bullish entries on a move above that neckline. I still consider bullish entries countertrend ones, and I don't tend to trade countertrend plays. If crude prices drop over a several-day period, that may allow equities some breathing room . . . or it might just allow investors to focus on what the rise in crude has so far done to expectations. It's possible that markets might not get the pop that might be expected on a drop in crude as long as the drop is just a pullback. Keep those stops tight in either direction.

Those entering a new bearish play should expect a steadying at or just below 538, the appropriate right-shoulder level for the potential inverse H&S. Even if prices are eventually going to drop below the head and reject the formation, there's usually a least a hesitation at that right shoulder level, at least enough to scare bears. Both bears and bulls have tight stops to set, at an account-appropriate distance above or below 540.50-540.80. Both should check to see that TRIN levels and other guides to market health or weakness support their play.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/12/20,  9:02:15 PM
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