Option Investor
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  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  6:04:44 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  5:54:20 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  4:26:30 PM
Have a great weekend everyone and we'll see you at the bell Monday.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  4:24:57 PM
Reader Lynne reminded me yesterday evening that even if we are headed lower from here, it may be time to start working on that "Right Shoulder"... Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  4:20:59 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

This week's CLOSED OUT profiles Link

  Keene Little   10/15/20,  4:20:03 PM
For all you eBay lovers, here's a song to send you away for the weekend. Enjoy! (click on the small play button at the top of the page) Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  4:07:57 PM
Buy Program Premium .... DIA $99.51, SPY $111.30, QQQ $35.59.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  4:03:27 PM
Free range cat... does that taste like free range chicken?

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  4:02:09 PM
The OEX closes in the bottom third of yesterday's range.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  3:58:32 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $28.58 -1.71% .... rallies to the close and tries to reclaim the bottom end of downward regression channel.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:58:27 PM
Mark, our neighbor's free-ranging cat likes to sit on the outside of our window sill while my lab mix and golden retriever howl in outrage at her taunting them like that. Sometimes she deigns to turn and gaze at them. (I had a cat for 16 years, so I'm a cat lover, too, but I sure wish they'd keep that one corralled, especially as the window in question is about two feet from my desk.)

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:55:36 PM
I agree with Mark's 15:49 post in all particulars, including the need to factor in your comfort factor whe making decisions about holding over a weekend.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  3:55:02 PM
Stopped out by 15 cents and now back above the 50sma. I may have to do something bad to the next door neighbor's cat again (he poops in my rose bed so that's my excuse). JUST kidding... I love the little *&^%$$#

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  3:49:04 PM
Stopped out @ 1107.48 and break even
I have a feeling Monday will be an up day but not enough to bet money on it. I also want to be able to sleep this weekend, a very important decision when considering whether or not to hold a trade over.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:47:43 PM
The TRAN edges just beneath 3350, but still hasn't dropped all that far. It's at 3349.08 as I type.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  3:44:14 PM
Long @ 1107.48, raise stop to 1107.48 and break even

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:40:55 PM
Still feels like a day setting up a trade for another day to me. Those are fine, as we need some consolidation days, but I sure wish someone would telegraph everyone first. This days feels as if it's been 15 hours long. It wouldn't feel that way if I'd known for sure the day was a set-up day, rather than suspected it, as I mentioned last night and again this morning. Then I wouldn't have had to pay attention to every nuance, waiting for the huge drop that never came. At least not yet.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:29:16 PM
The TRAN also pulls back from its day's high, but not far yet. It's still above the 3340-3342 S/R zone.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  3:22:38 PM
QQQ is within 2 cents of yesterday's 11AM levels. It seems that the opex boys can run this market like their own ATM.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:22:19 PM
The OEX, SPX, and Dow are doing their best to erase the potential for tweezer-bottom candlestick formations at the bottom of the steep declines off 10/7. If these indices close below the midline of yesterday's range, that lessens the potential for a reversal and turns that bullish two-candle stick formation into something decidedly less bullish. We've still got 40 minutes to go, however. In truth, I wouldn't be feeling all that bullish even if that tweezer-bottom formation were completed, as I mentioned earlier. I just try to see all possibilities.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  3:17:33 PM
MetLife (NYSE:MET) $34.45 -7.48% Link .... Life insurer said earlier today that is has received three-more subpoenas since June from New York Attorney General's office.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  3:15:35 PM
Here comes the bounce. Remember the 50sma is @ 1108.17 and I wouldn't be surprised to see them close it above that level, or at least close. If we fail from there then this may be one of the rare times we really do fall off the cliff (but I doubt it).

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  3:14:44 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:12:40 PM
A rundown of some indices and their 200-ema's: Nasdaq at 1908.67 as I type and the 200-ema at 1906.27, NDX at 1428.43 and 200-ema at 1407.89, SPX at 1107.45 and 200-ema at 1100.76.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  3:05:59 PM
ACE Ltd. (ACE) $34.77 -4.66% .... CNBC reports company executive pleads guilty to bid rigging charges.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:05:28 PM
The OEX ascending trendline off yesterday's low crosses at about 530.45, so watch for a potential bounce attempt from there. If this gets going fast enough to the downside, it may not stop, however.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  3:04:57 PM
Go long again @ 1107.48, stop 1106.48

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  3:04:09 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1108, -1

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  3:03:36 PM
The OEX is trying to hold onto the 532 level, but threatening to fall beneath it . . . and there it goes.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  3:03:14 PM
Whenever I think we're about to fall off the edge of the cliff I usually cover any short positions. I haven't kept a diary but would estimate that at least 95% of the time we don't drop off into the abyss. It may have something to do with everybody else seeing the same thing, moving to the short side of the boat and tipping it over. Whatever the case, it usually works.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  3:03:06 PM
Intra-day TRIN Chart with its WEEKLY and DAILY Pivot levels. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  2:57:54 PM
The treasury budget released at 2PM surprised to the upside at 24.4B, exp. 22B. Bonds took a jump on the news, repairing part of the day's losses.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  2:57:52 PM
02:55 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:55:36 PM
I changed servers just to make sure that my charts really were updating.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  2:54:55 PM
Close out short now @ 1109.11, +2.89

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  2:54:48 PM
QQQ is sitting on the intraday fib line at 35.58, with a probe to 35.55 on this run. The 30 min cycle upphase is stalled, just waiting for the champ to glare at it and push it over.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  2:49:52 PM
Short @ 1112, stop 1112 and break even
Long @ 1109, stop 1108

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  2:48:00 PM
Go long now @ 1109, stop 1108

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:45:19 PM
The OEX may be approaching a zone (at 532) from which it might attempt a small bounce.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  2:44:02 PM
There goes 1110... still a little early to say we're "safe" but the SPX 1-min chart just printed a bearish MACD kiss adding further creedence to the bearish scenario. Next support is the 50dma @ 1108.20... below that things become much more bearish but below 1108.20 may be hard to accomplish. Currently printing 1108.63... watch 1108.20 for the next potential bounce point but right now the short looks like a winner.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:40:34 PM
No bounce on the OEX, at least not yet. The downside target for the H&S on the two-minute chart was 531.96, and it looks as if the OEX will meet that target or come close. This is a plus for bears.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  2:37:18 PM
Volume has trailed off again, but QQQ got far enough to confirm its short cycle downphase. So far the action is solid and not obviously corrective to me, but rising 30 min cycle channel support is up to 35.50. Bears will need to get below 35.55 to have a chance at aborting that upphase.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  2:31:16 PM
We just took out the last swing low, confirming the change of trend to down on the very shortest timeframe. The fact that this occurred during the last 1 1/2 hrs of trading is encouraging for shorts as this is when the big money normally places their bets. If we take out the 1110 congestion area the short play from 1112 will look very good for for holding over the weekend. Keep in mind also that 1110 is a potential bounce point.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:31:04 PM
The H&S on the OEX's two-minute chart confirmed, with the OEX turning down from the 533.75-534 zone that I mentioned this morning. TRIN supports a bearish play for those of you who may have decided to jump in, but expect some choppy trading conditions next week, if you do. It would be my preference to wait until next week to let some of the option-related choppiness play out. For those who don't want to wait, Keltner support may produce a bounce soon, up to 533.20-533.73.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  2:24:10 PM
VIX.X 14.84 -9.67% .... plunging back toward WEEKLY Piv (14.53). Trades DAILY S2 (14.83)

With TRIN's BEARISH DIVERGENCE, be VERY alert should VIX.X trade WEEKLY Pivot, where current session gains could go "poof" and get reversed along with VIX.X

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  2:23:45 PM
Session high for Nymex crude at 54.85 here, +.10 as we approach the Nymex close.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:23:12 PM
You have to study a two-minute chart to see it, but the OEX is now (533.31) at the neckline of a H&S with an ascending neckline on that chart. It's fully formed now, except for the confirmation. I'm looking for signs that markets may be topping, but be careful about making assumptions.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:21:33 PM
The TRAN is resisting rolling over into that double-top formation five-minute chart, and instead made a slightly higher high.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  2:20:58 PM
PFE Option chain at this Link

May come back to this in coming weeks, but I feel investors becoming more and more uncertain as to just what COX-2 is all about. If FDA becomes uncertain, they could begin advising the pulling of several drugs.

I keep reading "it's OK articles," but market doesn't seem to believe it, and PFE announces it is going to study further.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:19:10 PM
If the SPX were to close the day where it is now, a big question mark this far ahead of the close, it will have created a tweezer-bottom pattern, a potential reversal signal. The OEX's pattern, although not perfect, is also close to a tweezer-bottom pattern, too. So is the Dow's. I'm not reading too much into this, but traders should be aware of the pattern and watch for possible follow-through. The OEX tends to produce doji near 535, though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a doji Monday as all those people put stock they never intended to own decide what they're going to do with it.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  2:18:51 PM
Bears will be looking for a lower high on this secondary bounce from QQQ. Anything below the session high of 35.85 will qualify as a lower high to confirm the young, so-far-corrective short cycle downphase.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  2:10:45 PM
Close out put alert .... close out the PFE Nov. $27.50 puts (PFE-WY) for a loss at $0.85 offer.

PFE $28.01 here.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  2:07:00 PM
Now short @ 1112, stop 1113
Sorry for the delay... thought I had already posted confirmation of the entry point being triggered (see 13:56 post)

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  2:03:01 PM
Below 35.66 QQQ, a short cycle downphase should commence.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  2:02:32 PM
Exit long play now @ 1111.48, +1.20

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  2:02:05 PM
A first chink in the mortar? The TRAN may be forming a double-top on the five-minute chart.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:56:56 PM
Go short with a touch of 1112

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:51:27 PM
Long @ 1110.28, lower stop to 1110.28 and break even
I want to give this one some room since we're not dropping much off the highs.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  1:48:33 PM
QQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link . A short cycle downphase is due, likely to be corrective within the rising 30 and 60 min cycle channel upphases. Look for support at 35.66, 35.58 and 35.44.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  1:47:21 PM
The OEX's climb is beginning to look a little bearish-rising-wedge-ish. I'm noting these developments as they occur, but please don't place too much emphasis or faith in these developments on an opex Friday. I'm not.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:45:09 PM
Long @ 1110.28, raise stop to 1112.28

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:44:01 PM
Has anybody noticed Dow 10000 is only 22 points away???

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  1:42:45 PM
I guess the "less clear" five-minute Keltner picture for the OEX was actually more predictive than the usually-more-reliable seven-minute picture. That one suggested that the OEX was more likely to decline over the short-term than climb, but the five-minute outlook was more ambiguous, as noted in my 13:21 post. It showed more support balancing the resistance. The five-minute chart sets likely next resistance at 535.45, but I'm not entirely trustful of what I see today. This is acting just as we expect opex Friday to act: not much movement and choppy movement when it comes.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:41:11 PM
It makes no sense for the markets to go higher here but it has really paid off today to put aside what you "know is right" and what is actually happening with price.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  1:34:56 PM
Well put, Jim. I agree entirely. Taking the reasoning off on a slight tangent, if we accept that energy (and hence commodity) price inflation is more than merely "volatile" or "fleeting", then the overall inflation rate is considerably higher than what the core CPI and PCE levels would indicate. The corollary to paper money inflation such as that suggested by Bernanke in his printing-press speech is a devaluation of that money (contrary to Secretary Snow's repeat comments) and an inflation of other assets valued in that currency.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  1:31:04 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   10/15/20,  1:29:03 PM
Oil Prices and Greenspan
After reading the entire text of the Greenspan speech I am struck by the complete divergence from present day reality that appears to be evident in his thinking. He suggests that new technology, cheaper fuels and better oil recovery methods will delay the depletion of all oil reserves until 2050. While that may be true the oil crisis will reach epic proportions well before the last drop of oil is extracted from the ground in 2050.

Currently emerging economies like India and China only use a fraction of the oil consumed by the U.S. The U.S. has a population of 290 million and we consume about 22 million barrels of oil per day. China has a population of 1.3 billion, four times the size of the U.S. China only consumes 6 billion barrels per day but that rate of consumption is expanding rapidly. It is a well known fact that emerging economies consume more oil per capita than fully developed countries. China is currently exploding from its agrarian society and rapidly improving the life style of its population. China is still well behind the industrialization levels of Korea and Japan. Both Japan and Korea currently consume 16 bbl per person per year. If China only brought the coastal 1/3 of its population to the current economic and technological levels of Japan/Korea it would increase China's consumption to more than 20 MBpd. That is the equivalent of adding the production of two Saudi Arabias operating at full capacity to the to the daily demand. Add in the explosion in India and other emerging economies and global demand could increase by 30-35 Mbpd over the next 10 years.

Greenspan made a big deal about the 100 billion barrel increase in reserves over the last decade while at the same time 250 billion barrels were consumed. What is wrong with this picture? If that additional consumption of that 30-35 Mbpd projection above came to pass it would increase annual consumption by 11 billion barrels and that does not include increases in consumption by already developed countries.

In other words reserves increased at only 40% of the rate of consumption over the last ten years with the advent of deeper drilling, monster offshore wells, and a vast increase in recovery technologies. Consumption increased over 50% during the same period. Current annual consumption is 31 billion barrels. Add in the 11 billion in expected new consumption from just the emerging economies and increases in existing economies and consumption in the current decade could spike to 500 billion barrels.

The outlook is clear to anyone that wants to take the time to think it through. The easy oil has been found and the major fields are already drying up. New technology and additional discoveries will add to known reserves but at a far smaller pace than current reserves are being consumed.

I believe the current speech has been crafted to downplay the current crisis and attempt to talk down prices. The Fed is famous for this in multiple markets over the years. By the time the current scenario plays out Greenspan will be retired and new presidents in power. This attempt to talk down oil prices is a stop gap measure to stop the bleeding. The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a $20 billion per month undeclared tax on consumers from the increase in oil over the last six months. $20 billion of valuable purchasing power evaporating each month. You do the math. Greenspan is simply trying to apply a tourniquet to the wound to stop the economic bleeding.

Every day we are coming closer to the day when oil production peaks forever and begins the downhill slide to that last drop in 2050. That date is currently projected for late 2007 to 2008. Once demand exceeds production and that could come over the next three years the price of oil will explode higher. Once orders exceed capacity the bidding war for available production will skyrocket. The crisis will not be when oil is gone in 2050 but when the demand exceeds production on a daily basis. $54 oil will quickly become $100 oil or even higher.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:28:09 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1111.05, -1
Long @ 1110.28, stop 1110.28 and break even

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:24:31 PM
Go long now @ 1110.28

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  1:23:49 PM
The TRAN is just pulling back from its day's high and is at 3361.09 as I type, having handled the 3340-3342 zone's potential resistance without a problem. Now we'll see if Greenspan has any effect on the TRAN's performance. The 10/9 high was 3389.20.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  1:21:21 PM
Very shallow, low volume, slow pullback in QQQ- not much sign of weakness at the highs.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  1:21:20 PM
The OEX looks ready to keel over beneath building Keltner resistance when viewed on the usually more reliable seven-minute chart, but the five-minute is not quite so clear.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  1:10:52 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  1:09:42 PM
Gold is holding steady at 420.60, with HUI up 1.89% and XAU +1.7% at 99.59. Nymex crude is down .275 to 54.475 here.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  1:07:38 PM
The OEX isn't getting much of anywhere right now, and Keltner resistance is snaking above it again. Everyone must be listening to Greenspan.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  1:06:40 PM
B-bands are getting very tight in the 1110.50 area. Something is about to blow. All signs are pointing to a downside break but you never know.

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  12:58:11 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $28.00 -3.71% Link ... Ouch! Slammed on news that it is now conducting additional studies on its Bextra drug (COX-2) treatment for arthritis pain. Pfizer said two trials of a high-risk surgery known as coronary artery bypass graft showed an increase in cardiovascular events in patients receiving Bextra alone or in combination with the investigational drug Parecoxib.

Need to get out of those Nov. $27.50 puts (PFE-WY) before today's close. This COX-2 story continues to unfold to the negative.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:55:47 PM
A short cycle upphase has emerged from the chop, with the 30 min channel finally showing an upphase as QQQ approaches the upper channel line. Bulls will want to see support at 35.55 hold for any pullback.

  Tab Gilles   10/15/20,  12:52:19 PM
This morning, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index for mid-October slipped to 87.5 from 94.2. This slide is a full 6.4 points greater than the consensus estimate for a decline to 93.9. This number marks the lowest point since April of 2003. Hmmm....isn't that the same date when the rally started?

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:51:52 PM
Exit long play now @ 1110.67, +4.67

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  12:49:57 PM
If the OEX is going to move up toward 535.40, it's apparently going to do it creeping on its hands and knees. To reiterate my position, I'm considering this a set-up day, whether the OEX drops down into the next support level or eventually climbs up toward the next resistance one. The third choice is that it just sits right here, a real possibility.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:49:48 PM
Seeing a little bearish divergence on the 1-min chart

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  12:49:35 PM
QQQ $35.67 +0.62% .... most active options Nov. $35 put (67,000 : 164,436), Nov. $35 call (42,088 : 72,177), Nov. $36 call (33,735 : 115,466), Oct. $35 call (33,064 : 151.705), Nov. $36 put (29,562 : 110,228).

VXN.X 21.95 -1.56% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows ... 21.75, 22.11, Piv = 22.39 , 22.75, 23.03.

Might be an answer to Mark's earlier TRIN question.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:49:02 PM
Long @ 1106, raise stop to 1110

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:46:33 PM
Go short now... 1110.05, stop 1111.05

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  12:45:28 PM
VIX.X 15.61 -4.99% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows ... 14.83, 15.52, Piv = 16.04 , 16.73, 17.25.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:44:31 PM
It appears that Chairman Greenspan's expertise has expanded from central banking and the natural gas market to include oil as well.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:43:13 PM
New session highs across the board ehre. 35.75-.77 QQQ is next resistance.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:42:15 PM
SPX is currently struggling to overcome a small area of congestion in the 1110-1111 area. If that is taken out we could rip all the way up to 1115.

  Jim Brown   10/15/20,  12:41:34 PM
Speech by Chairman Alan Greenspan on oil: Link

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:39:22 PM
It is interesting to see the Dow stronger than SPX today. Dow has been a laggard for some time now and the fact that it is doing some catch up today is a short-term bullish sign IMO. Every observation today has be taken with a grain of opex salt though.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:37:52 PM
That moonshot stopped at a nominal new high of 35.65 QQQ, a resistance level we've discussed this week. The 30 min cycle channels haven't done more than uptick slightly, but if the price can hold above the 35.55 level for another 10 minutes, the move will become more persuasive. Channel resistance is currently 35.75 for both the 30 and 60 min channels.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  12:35:49 PM
What's up with the TRIN today, anyway? Prices sure haven't followed TRIN's predictions, at least not yet. Just because there's nothing better to do today, watch the potential H&S developing on the TRIN's three-minute chart, to see if it confirms and then meets its predicted downside. I like to watch these indicators to see if they follow standard technical analysis. Certainly seems as if they do at times, doesn't it?

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  12:33:17 PM
The OEX is attempting a Keltner channel breakout toward 535.40 or so, but it's not clear yet that it can maintain the breakout. There's a kind of rounding-bottom look to the chart, suggesting that 534.50 may be possible, at least, but I'm not counting too highly on any "suggestions" made on the charts to be met. Even if they are, I consider this a set-up day for a trade that develops later, possibly next week.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:32:53 PM
Long @ 1106, raise stop to 1106 and break even.
Why didn't I just stay long from 1102.68??? Fear of mother TRIN.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:30:23 PM
QQQ 2-day 100-tick chart update Link.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:25:34 PM
Session highs across the board here, with QQQ 4 cents away.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:24:08 PM
Days like today are designed to wear traders out. Just about the time you reach your limit they take it directional. BTW the whipsawing may not be over yet.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:22:10 PM
Run shorty, run!

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:21:18 PM
We're pausing right at the 10:39 swing high (1107.39). If we can take it out that should begin to trigger some short-covering. A new HOD should accelerate things even more.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:10:52 PM
Stopped out of short @ 1105.99 and break even
Now long @ 1106, stop 1105

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  12:10:26 PM
And there's the first false break out of the symmetrical triangle on the OEX's chart and then a move back to the apex. (See my 11:48 post.)

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:09:50 PM
Sharp bounce in progress here, retesting 35.40 confluence from below with bonds at session low.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:09:33 PM
Go long with a touch of 1106.00

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:05:46 PM
New session lows for QQQ at 30 minute channel support at 35.27.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:05:26 PM
Short @ 1105.99, lower stop to 1105.99 and break even

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  12:04:17 PM
Bingo! FINALLY a good move to the downside.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  12:03:28 PM
The OEX is breaking out of that symmetrical triangle, breaking to the downside as Keltner resistance suggested it might do. It's not really breaking far as yet, but we may have at least a retest of yesterday's low ahead of us.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  12:02:16 PM
QQQ is edging slowly lower, back to 35.40 in a move that has the short cycle oscillators rolling over within the stalled 30 and 60 min cycle channels. Volume is quite light. I'm looking forward to this opex week being over.

  Tab Gilles   10/15/20,  11:56:10 AM
Here's a look at the $DRG relative to the $XOI. In 1999, drug stocks were the stocks to own and oil was out of favor. Now in 2004 seems that we've got the opposite occurring. I may be early on this call, however, for those looking to allocate oil profits might consider the drug sector for a good reward potential relative to risk. Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/15/20,  11:52:57 AM
I'm currently away from the markets other than intra-day updates.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:51:33 AM
TRIN @ HOD... 1.78

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:49:42 AM
Starting to see the logjam show signs of breaking again... let's hope the beaver is off somwhere chewing on a stump.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  11:48:25 AM
I'm back. The OEX is coiling into a symmetrical triangle on the five-minute chart. Does that mean that we'll get some movement finally? Perhaps, but remember that this is opex Friday, and it's possible that the movement will be a false break out of that triangle and then a settling down again near the apex, and perhaps another false break or two. TRIN sure supports the idea that a break will occur and that it will be to the downside, though, doesn't it? As I type, Keltner resistance near 532.17 looks far stronger than any support beneath the OEX. If we knew that 524.50-525 zone was the more likely downside target, we'd have reason to give a bearish trade a try, but since 527-528.50 may be the actual target, I don't know that risk versus reward makes a new entry worthwhile when you factor in usual opex Friday behavior.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  11:33:33 AM
Nymex crude bounced from a low of 54.075, currently up to 54.525, down .225 for the day. Gold is up 1.30 at 420.80, off from a high of 422.80 today.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:31:09 AM
The logjam finally broke... and we got about a cup of water out of it before the beaver came along and patched it up again.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:21:11 AM
Just a little bit lower and the logjam could finally break

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  11:20:28 AM
The uptick in the 30 and 60 min cycle channels is just that so far, with support and resistance creeping up by a few pennies in what is still a net sideways drift since 8AM, and for that matter, 11AM yesterday. This is taking place in a short cycle upphase, however, and when it tops anytime over the next hour to hour and half, we should see a renewed attempt on the day lows (always assuming the QQQ option writers allow it to occur).

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:16:24 AM
A drop below SPX 1105 will put in another lower low and confirm the short-term downtrend. TRIN is definitely on the side of a short play today but the market doesn't seem to be paying much attention to TRIN (yet).

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  11:16:04 AM
I'll be away for about ten or fifteen minutes.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:12:46 AM
Go short now.... 1105.99, stop 1106.99

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:07:11 AM
Stopped out @ 1105.48, -1

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  11:06:30 AM
The TRAN has driven straight up to that 3340-3342 resistance zone. It's at 3342.09 as I type.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  11:04:40 AM
If we can take out the 10:39 swing high @ 1107.36 we may have a good long play. I was not comfortable being short with SPX refusing to drop back much after such a strong move off the lows (watch it roll over now that I've committed).

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:59:36 AM
Now long @ 1106.48, stop 1105.48
Closed out short @ 1106.48 and break even

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:58:11 AM
Close out short play and go long immediately with a touch of 1106.48

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  10:56:59 AM
This morning, the OEX has been turned back by each test of the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Link A move above those averages will constitute a change in trend, then, if it occurs.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  10:56:35 AM
Session low for ten year treasury futures, ZNZ4 at 113.2031, TNX +4 bps at 4.055%.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  10:51:29 AM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 54.075, -1.23%.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  10:50:22 AM
Unless it's bad data from IB, I see a huge sell program on QQQ just now, 7M shares on a red volume spike within a mere 100 ticks. Wow!

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:45:00 AM
I'm finding myself thinking "I can't believe this is happening" and that always makes me nervous when my thought processes drift into denial. I was very tempted to go long @ 1106 but the 50dma just above @ 1108.14 held me back. Hopefully it will also hold SPX back but nothing is making much sense today.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  10:37:06 AM
Keene's e-wave assessment of the current bounce as being corrective meshes with the cycle analysis I set out in my 10:21 comments.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  10:29:41 AM
The Fed has drained 2.25B net for the day with a 7.25B overnight repo to replace the 9.5B expiring. This leaves an impressive 11.75B in various repos expiring on Monday. The drain today will be partly offset by a 994M coupon pass deliverable today- this is a permanent market operation that adds liquidity to the system. So, the effective net drain today is 1.256B.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  10:29:38 AM
The OEX's 200-week sma is at 537.68, with the OEX this week turning down from that average. That average has been pressuring the OEX since the first of the year. In the summer, the OEX finally popped above the average, but it wasn't able to stay above it long. The 200-week ema is at 542.51. For a while, the OEX was finding support at the 200-ema and resistance at the 200-sma, but now they've joined forces. Link A steadying at or above 520 and then a move back above those averages on a weekly closing basis (maybe for two or more weeks as confirmation) would be a sign that the OEX was really breaking out of the this-year-long descending regression channel. I haven't drawn the channel on the chart so that you could better see the averages. Until we see a higher or equal low on this weekly chart, hopefully accompanied by bullish price/MACD divergence, it's hard to believe too strongly that a breakout is imminent. A turnaround from 527-530 could produce that higher low.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:25:27 AM
This is some amazing strength we are seeing but on an opex Friday I'm wondering if it is just a stop run, thus the reason for raising our stop to just above HOD.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:23:40 AM
Short @ 1106.48, raise stop to 1108.48

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  10:21:35 AM
The 30 and 60 min cycles are behaving as if they're trying to form a broad bottom above 35.25 support. However, the daily cycle downphase within which this is occurring suggests that any bottom should be temporary below the 36 level- I'd expect a sideways move to bump into descending daily cycle resistance over the next 2 sessions. This is just a guess based on the current daily and 30 min cycle oscillators and channels, but it fits well with the current op-ex action as well. First sign of trouble for bears will a break above 35.78 QQQ.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  10:13:20 AM
It looks as if Jim and I both had the TRAN on our minds, making posts about it within a few moments of each other. I agree with Jim, and logic is on both our sides, but this index has had an amazing TASR-like and KKD-like (in a former life for KKD) quality to its climb. It just keeps climbing when logic says that's impossible. Of course, we know what eventually happened to KKD. Logic finally asserted itself.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  10:09:41 AM
Every time I discuss something about Dow Theory, I'm later embarrassed to find that I've missed some nuance of the theory, but the plain truth is that the TRAN's and Dow's behaviors are diverging, with the TRAN moving higher within an ascending regression channel on the daily chart and the Dow moving lower within a descending one on the daily chart. Since the TRAN often leads the Dow, is this telling us that it's going to pull its sister index up, too, or at least rescue it from deeper declines? If the Dow doesn't get rescued soon and follow the TRAN higher, then perhaps it's going to work the other way around, with negative inferences for our economy.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:09:23 AM
TRIN is on the rise... currently 1.50 (good for our short play)

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:07:32 AM
SPX has just printed a buy signal @ 1104.50. Welcome to opex Friday and make sure to have your neck brace firmly cinched up.

  Jim Brown   10/15/20,  10:06:37 AM
The discussion on CNBC about the expected Delta Airlines loss just emphasizes the lack of reality in the Transportation sector rebound. They are expected to lose betaeen $625-$675 million and are in danger of bankruptcy. $54 oil should be creating additional pressure on transports NOT sending the index higher.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  10:05:47 AM
The TRAN is holding up well today, now at its high of the day, but also approaching the 50% retracement of the decline off the 10/7 high to the 10/13 low, with that 50% retracement at 3332.21. The TRAN regularly overruns resistance and support levels, and could run past this one to test the 3340-3342 S/R level. The TRAN will face a descending trendline off that 10/7 high at about 3345-3347, depending on when it's hit, if it is. The TRAN is at 3330.75 as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  10:05:45 AM
I was wondering what you thought about the apparent breakdown underway in the December dollar contract while the December gold contract is not appreciating significantly to reflect the dollar's move: do you think that constitutes an inter-relationship negative divergence?

Great question. I believe that it's a short term negative divergence, but not particularly significant. Gold is up roughly 12% this year and the USD Index roughly 5%. On this basis, there's wiggle room in both directions. Some analysts have suggested viewing gold as the reference around which all other asset classes move- in other words, gold is the store of value by which all other assets, including the dollar, are priced. G. Edward Griffin discusses this in his historical studies of the Fed- one ounce of gold in Roman times bought you a nice toga and sandals, and today buys a decent suit, pair of shoes and belt. This is a roundabout way of saying that the divergence could be significant, but I don't believe it to be necessarily so. These intermarket relationships are subject to short term waxes and wanes that tend to smooth out over time. As I see it, the USD Index remains in a bearish trend since the start of 2002, while gold remains in a bullish one. The key test will come at the 52 week high for gold/low for the dollar, both very close to current levels.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  10:03:09 AM
The trend has clearly changed to down and we have a good (short) entry over +3 points above current levels. The only question now is "Will SPX 1100 hold"? Bears first have to deal with yesterday's low @ 1102.14, then the Sept 28 low @ 1101.30, then 1100 itself, all of which could (and should) provide strong support, however it's hard to be too bullish at this point. The immediate return to the scene of the crime is very bearish. We were lucky to grab +4 on that long play.

  Jim Brown   10/15/20,  10:00:03 AM
Alert - Business Inventories = +0.7% , (est +0.7%, last +0.9%)

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:56:37 AM
QQQ is diving below 35.40 support. Next support is 35.25 30 and 60 min channel support, currently overlaid at that level.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  9:53:04 AM
Short @ 1106.48, lower stop to 1106.48 and break even

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:52:56 AM
There's a 9.5B overnight repo expiring today. The Fed's open market announcement is due anytime.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  9:52:43 AM
The OEX is pausing from just above 532, pulling back now in what appears to be a potential bull flag. It's the quality of this pullback, though, that's going to tell us much about . . . whoops, there it goes. That's no bull flag. The OEX may be pulling back to regroup.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  9:52:40 AM
The OEX is pausing from just above 532, pulling back now in what appears to be a potential bull flag. It's the quality of this pullback, though, that's going to tell us much about . . . whoops, there it goes. That's no bull flag. The OEX may be pulling back to regroup.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:51:22 AM
Dow Jones put is "Univ Michigan Mid-Oct Sentiment said 87.5", whatever that means. Perhaps a late night toga session for the U-Mich statisticians?

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  9:50:16 AM
Stopped out of long play @ 1106.48, +4
Now short @ 1106.48, stop 1107.48

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:49:49 AM
Session high for gold on the U-Mich news.

  Jim Brown   10/15/20,  9:49:27 AM
Alert - Consumer Sentiment confirmed at 87.5, (est 94.9, last 94.2)

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  9:48:45 AM
Go short immediately if we get stopped out of the long play @ 1106.48

  Stephen Tetreault   10/15/20,  9:48:21 AM
Please remember folks that I have forecasted a MAJOR-MAJOR inflection period for today, I do not yet know what the directional movement will be until the inflection period commences and we get a reading upon which to base our directional call on. At this point, the impetus looks like it could be a bullish move, due to the continued selling we have experienced. On 10/06/2004 I sent out an alert-alarm that suggested that we were only hours away from a topping event and it appears that I was dead on target then as the Dow has lost 430 points, the SPX almost 40 points and the Nasdog has lost almost 70 points and it has been the most resilient of the big three indexes. Now for the bad news the turn/inflection point that is forecasted for today could be a continuation of this down trend as well. We will have to wait and see We could be looking at a flat opening, then a run down to trigger stops etc. this morning after the selling event yesterday and due to the weakening Asian markets, and the weakness seen in the ADR’s and Euro-land, then a pause/waffle for 10-20 minutes after the open then we could see the emergence of the dip buyers off of key support levels, watch the SOX and Russell-2000 for signs of reversal, and we need to keep an eye on CRUDE as this could be a blow-off top on the black gold commodity today and if so the indexes could catch a bid as money is re-allocated, especially after options expiration. Watch these levels for support today....Nasdog (1894-1896) OEX (526-527) SOX (370-374) SPX (1101.50-1102.00); QQQ (34.95-35.05) DOW (9845-9855) BBH 131.75-132.25) RUT (560-562) ES at (1100.75-1101.25) and the NQ at (1417.1420). Crude prices are still a major contagion to the markets "Rising oil and energy costs and their negative effects on economic growth, inflation and profits constitute the biggest risk to [the economy] since the bursting of the stock-market bubble in 2000-2001," said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics in New York. He added that "higher energy costs are here to stay, and that has to subtract growth and could cause core inflation to pick up." And we have another potential directional driver today: Uncle Al Greenspam speaks: and FEd watchers will be listening closely to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday, when he is scheduled to address the topic of oil prices in a speech at 12:00est

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  9:46:16 AM
Long @ 1102.48, raise stop to 1106.48

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:46:13 AM
Michigan sentiment due now.

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  9:42:53 AM
The current pullback is looking like a bull flag on the 1-min chart but I wouldn't want to see it drop much further.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  9:41:50 AM
I just realized that when editing my 9:37 post, I left out the part in which I'd reiterated my view that today might be a setup day for a trade next week. (See my 22:21 post.)

  Jim Brown   10/15/20,  9:41:23 AM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Kohn
How Should Policymakers Deal with Low-Probability, High-Impact Events? Link

  Mark Davis   10/15/20,  9:40:08 AM
Good morning... So many sceanrios, so little time, to corrupt a phrase. I could write several essays on the different possibilites as to where we go from here. Let's keep it simple to start off. We held long overnight from 1102.48 and at this point we have a free trade. The first potential rollover point I see for SPX is the 50 dma @ 1107.63, which we have already spiked above (HOD is 1108.22) before pulling back, currently printing 1107.41. Conservative traders (and scardey-cats) might want to just grab the +5 points and run. More aggressive traders may choose to hang in there and see what happens. The steepness of the open leads me to believe we will head higher today but it will take a while to get a feel for the markets.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  9:37:28 AM
The OEX's seven-minute Keltner chart shows a potential upside toward 533.75, which fits with what we know about historical S/R in the 533.75-534 zone. Let's see how the OEX behaves on its first retracement of the day, due to begin in a few minutes, before we draw too many conclusions, however. If you're in a bearish position, I've been cautioning since day before yesterday about planning profit-protecting maneuvers, so I assume you know what your appropriate stops are.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:34:28 AM
QQQ is hildings its gains above 35.50, and bonds are holding their losses with TNX +2.9 bps at 4.044%. Gold is up 2.1 to 421.6 with HUI +1.38% at 224.75. QQQ's 30 min cycle channel is ticking up, and if QQQ can hold above 35.50 for another 10 minutes, we should get a 30 min cycle upphase to confirm.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  9:33:50 AM
The OEX charges right up toward that 532 target, nearly there as I type.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  9:32:10 AM
At the open, the OEX confirms the small reverse H&S building on its five-minute chart at yesterday's close. The upside target is only about 532, but this at least gives us an opportunity to see if bulls can yet follow through on upside targets. From early action, perhaps they can!

  Tab Gilles   10/15/20,  9:25:31 AM
To add to yesterday's post of the PPH, since the $DRG has a longer historical data length than the PPH (both have similar charts), I ran a relative DRG/SPX weekly chart. Link

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  9:17:59 AM
Futures have done a bit of jumping around since the 8:30 economic releases, so be careful about taking a position too quickly at the open. Studying the OEX's daily Keltner chart, it looks possible that the OEX could continue its decline a little deeper than the 527-528.50 I'd thought most likely, perhaps down to 524.50-525. I'd mentioned that range last night, but didn't think it the most likely possibility. That daily chart also shows the OEX perching now on light and unsteady support, but perhaps likely to bounce anywhere between yesterday's close and 524.50-525. That's a big range and one that would be profitable if we only knew that the OEX really was going to dip to 524.50-525. Unfortunately, we don't. If already in a bearish play, you might consider just carefully managing the position. That careful management might include the possibility of closing out all or part of the position if the OEX should gap down into that zone on the open. Since it's possible that the OEX will pull itself up by its bootstraps somewhere near 527-528.50 (nearly reached yesterday) and since this is opex Friday, I'm leery of suggesting new bearish entries without a bounce and rollover first. I wouldn't suggest new bullish entries for any but the most adept scalpers who don't need my advice.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:17:20 AM





  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  9:15:54 AM
QQQ has finally broken the 35.50 level, currently trading 35.52. If the move sticks past the cash open, next resistance is at upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance which point to 35.65. A break back below targets 35.38-.40 support.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  8:43:00 AM
QQQ has just failed again at 35.50, current back to 35.45, while gold has reversed its post-data losses and is up to 422.10.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  8:40:06 AM
QQQ is testing and again bumping its head on the 35.50 resistance line. Those oversold short cycle oscillators are screaming for a break, but the Qubes have been unable to do it for the past 10 minutes.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  8:34:07 AM
The US Dolllar is up, with euros to a session low of 1.2376 and gold down .4 at 419.1 currently.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  8:31:13 AM
Session low for bonds, TNX -1 bp to 4.005%. Equities are higher, QQQ up .04 to 35.49.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  8:30:40 AM

8:29am U.S. SEPT. PPI UP 0.1%






8:30am U.S. SEPT. AUTO SALES UP 4.2%, MOST SINCE OCT. 2001


  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  8:28:58 AM
Gold and silver have just printed session highs at 421.70 and 7.167, session lows at 27.80.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  8:02:40 AM
We await the 8:30 release of business inventories, est. .6%, PPI, est .1%, core PPI .2%, the Empire State Index, est. 25, retail sales, est. .7% and retail sales ex-auto, est. .3%. At 9:15, there's industrial production and capacity utilization, est. .3% and 77.5% respectively. At 9:45, October UMich Sentiment, est. 94.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/15/20,  7:59:50 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1103.5, NQ 1428, YM 9894 and QQQ -.03 at 35.42. Gold is up to a session high of 421.5, silver +.093 to 7.151, bonds +.01 to 113.5469 for the ZN contract, and Nymex crude -.275 at 54.475.

  Linda Piazza   10/15/20,  6:49:17 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei closed below 11,000 last night. Other Asian bourses were mixed, with techs generally weak, but European bourses are almost uniformly negative. Our futures held up well, creeping slightly higher. As of 6:46 EST, gold was up T1.10 and crude down $0.16. More detail about Asian and European performance follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped below 11,000 Friday morning with rising crude costs again the culprit. Early decliners were paced by auto manufacturers and computer-related issues, but some commodity-related issues climbed after yesterday's decline. The bourse spent the rest of the day climbing laboriously toward 11,000, reaching that level late in the day but unable to maintain it into the close. The Nikkei closed down 51.34 points or 0.47%, at 10,982.95.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, although techs tended to be weak across Asia. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.18%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.55%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.57%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng also posted a gain, although a more modest 0.18% one. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.18%.

Currently, almost all European bourses trade in negative territory. Overnight, much discussion on CNBC Europe and in print articles has focused on the blow the insurers have dealt the European bourses. New York's Attorney General focused an investigation into U.S. commission practices on a unit of Germany's Munich Re, among other companies. Munich Re characterized itself as cooperating with the investigation rather than as a defendant. Other insurers fell in sympathy. In other sector news, Merrill Lynch downgraded many cement companies, citing concerns over margins for 2005 due to rising fuel and other costs. In stock-specific news, Nokia rose after its earnings report yesterday.

As of 6:46 EST, the FTSE 100 had lost 11.50 points or 0.25%, to trade at 4,617.90. The CAC 40 had declined 15.54 points or 0.42%, to trade at 3,649.41. The DAX had posted losses of 26.86 points or 0.68%, and traded at 3,913.60.

  Linda Piazza   10/14/20,  10:21:58 PM
Thursday, the OEX ended the day just below 530, the confirmation level of its double-top formation and the 61.8% retracement of the rally off the August low. Prices that retrace more than 61.8% of a previous move often go on to retrace the entire move. The confirmation of the double-top set a downside target of about 512, slightly below the August low.

Before we start counting on that target being reached, though, we have to note that all indices are at, slightly below, or approaching solid support. The SPX ended just above 1100 historical support and the location of the 200-ema at 1100.70. The SOX ended at 380.60, just above important 380 support. The Nasdaq actually closed a few points--three--below its 200-ema, but above 1900 support, and the TRAN held onto 3300 into the close, although barely. From tonight's vantage point, I give about equal weight to the possibility that there could be some follow through tomorrow morning, perhaps down to 527 on the OEX and perhaps even to 524-525 if the day is really ugly, before a bounce is mounted, and the possibility that the OEX could bounce from the open, up toward 533.50-534 or even 536-538 if the oversold pressure reached too much of an extreme.

Let's watch tomorrow, but it's possible that tomorrow will be a day that sets up a trade for another day rather than a strong trading day. It's likely that tomorrow will be a choppy trading day as bulls and bears battle it out at these important support levels.

  Jeff Bailey   10/14/20,  9:46:27 PM
09/30/04 to 10/14/2004 Sector Bell Curve from dorseywright.com at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/14/20,  9:36:43 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   10/14/20,  9:34:38 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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