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  Jim Brown   10/20/20,  5:21:40 PM
Earnings before the open Thursday

Dow components:
AIG est +0.98 (litigation charge?)
CAT est +1.36 MRK est +0.71 SBC est +0.38

AGI, AT, APPX, T, BAX, BEBE, CELG,
COCO, DECK, ELNK, LLY, GDT, ESI,
MEDI, NUE, PCAR, PWAV, QLTI, SAP,
STMP, TXT, UPS, XRX

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  4:45:08 PM
EBAY seems to have digested the 10Q and the results are positive. After dropping to just below the 90 level in AH trading EBAY is currently trading @ 93.25 and right at the highs.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  4:19:16 PM
EBAY cranking big time in AH after raising guidance. It did about a +$2.50 spike in the last 5 minutes... make that $3.00... make that $2.00
Can you say "volatile", he said in his best Mr. Rogers voice.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  4:06:03 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ...

Day trade short (carry overnight) for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) at $57.40, stop $57.55, target $56.68.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/20/20,  4:03:49 PM
Earnings after the close
This is only a fraction of the earnings for today.

CA est +0.17, actual = +0.22 beat
CD est +0.55, actual = +0.56
TK est +1.23, actual = +2.77 big beat
ALL est +0.08, actual = +0.08
CDN est +0.19, actual = +0.19
COF est +1.30, actual = +1.92 BIG BEAT!
GLW est +0.11, actual = +0.14 beat
PVN est +0.28, actual = +0.34 beat
RYL est +3.30, actual = +3.32 beat 2:1
STM est +0.17, actual = +0.20 beat
SDS est +0.36, actual = +0.37 beat
AFFX est +0.19, actual = +0.25 beat
ALTR est +0.18, actual = +0.22 beat
AMGN est +0.62, actual = +0.64 beat
CHIR est +0.06, actual = +0.06
CRUS est -0.04, actual = -0.18 miss
CTXS est +0.21, actual = +0.22 beat
EBAYest +0.27, actual = +0.28 beat
EFII est +0.13, actual = +0.16 beat
ERES est +0.14, actual = +0.13 miss
EXTR est +0.14, actual = +0.03 ??
MACR est +0.20, actual = +0.22 beat
MERQ est +0.24, actual = +0.27 beat
PXLW est +0.11, actual = +0.11
PMCS est +0.04, actual = +0.03 miss
RNWK est -0.04, actual = -0.02 beat
RBAK est -0.18, actual = -0.20 miss
SEBL est +0.05, actual = +0.04 miss
SYMC est +0.39, actual = +0.41 beat 2:1
TMTA est -0.12, actual = -0.16 miss
VRSN est +0.16, actual = +0.19 beat

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  4:02:45 PM
Sell Program Premium .... DIA $99.00, SPY $110.72, QQQ $36.10.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  4:02:37 PM
We have a perfect doji star for today on QQQ and NQ, indicating perfect indecision. The 30 min cycle upphase is still live, however, as is the 60, and should provide at least a sideways-to-upward bias into tomorrow morning. A break below 35.84 QQQ should change that.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  4:00:43 PM
Long @ 1101.50, stop 1101.50, hold overnight

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  3:59:15 PM
It will take some time but I would be very interested in going back and looking at a time table for Enron, and seeing what that stock did when its credit facilities were extended.

I would have to say the the INSURANCE industry seems to be more forthcoming in recent days (now the Spitzer has gotten after them) than Enron was way back when.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  3:53:58 PM
As Tab mentioned today with respect to the SPX, some indices are forming bullish hammers today. On the OEX, that hammer is bouncing the index back above the confirmation level of its double-top formation on its daily chart, but I'm still not certain that the declines are over, based on Keltner channel evidence. Watch tomorrow for possible follow-through to gains and then a rollover either tomorrow or later in the week.

One possible wrinkle is the expiration of crude futures for November delivery, mentioned by Jim today. Remember last cycle when I noted that crude was possibly being driven higher at expiration as shorts rushed to cover and that, if it that theory was right, crude might decline toward support once expiration was out of the way? That did happen, although there wasn't much of a decline, but is there a possibility it could decline again?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  3:48:42 PM
Bearish day trade hold overnight alert ... will hold the JNJ $57.41 +1.41% bearish trade overnight.

My thinking is that with oil back at contract highs, and pattern of moving higher to a Friday settlement, then I'm willing to take the overnight risk.

Economic data due out before the opening bell, which would impact Treasury trade is weekly jobless claims. Economists look for a 12,000 DECLINE to 340,000 after last week's 352,000.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:44:43 PM
We're approaching the magic 1103 area again, where we have failed twice today... a break to the upside would be good for bulls. Why do I think they won't give us the answer before the close???

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  3:43:31 PM
This wedge on the TRAN should break soon, in one direction or the other, although "soon" can mean tomorrow morning first thing, too: Link We all know that these rising wedges are supposedly bearish, but sometimes the prices don't know that and break to the upside instead!

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:41:17 PM
Long @ 1101.50, raise stop to 1101.50
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:34:28 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1101.50, +0.50
Now long @ 1101.50, stop 1101
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/20/20,  3:33:31 PM
Earnings after the close
This is only a fraction of the earnings due out today.

CA est +0.17, actual =
CD est +0.55, actual =
CDN est +0.19, actual =
COF est +1.30, actual =
PVN est +0.28, actual =
RYL est +3.30, actual =
STM est +0.17, actual =
SDS est +0.36, actual =
AFFX est +0.19, actual =
ALTR est +0.18, actual =
AMGN est +0.62, actual =
CHIR est +0.06, actual =
CRUS est -0.04, actual =
CTXS est +0.21, actual =
EBAY est +0.27, actual =
EFII est +0.13, actual =
ERES est +0.14, actual =
EXTR est +0.14, actual =
MACR est +0.20, actual =
MERQ est +0.24, actual =
PXLW est +0.11, actual =
PMCS est +0.04, actual =
RNWK est -0.04, actual =
RBAK est -0.18, actual =
SEBL est +0.05, actual =
SYMC est +0.39, actual =
TMTA est -0.12, actual =
VRSN est +0.16, actual =

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:33:27 PM
Short @ 1102, lower stop to 1101.50
Go long immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  3:30:11 PM
H&S rejected again, with the OEX again coiling into a neutral triangle.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:29:11 PM
Again I have to recant the last post... I just can't type fast enough
Short @ 1102, stop 1102 and break even
Go long immediately if stopped out.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  3:28:58 PM
The ongoing short cycle downphase should give bears another probe lower from a lower high below 36.05 (preferably below 36.02).

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:27:38 PM
Short @ 1102, lower stop to 1101
Go long immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:25:40 PM
I'm looking at a Bullhorn Wedge on the SPX 1-min chart, starting at about 1:40PM. We are closer to the bottom than the top but we are also still above round number support @ 1100. Whatever... it looks like we are winding up for a good directional move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  3:21:53 PM
Guess the OEX is going to give that second version of the H&S a try, with the neckline of that one at about 528.20.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  3:21:20 PM
A new low for the short cycle downphase here targeting QQQ 35.84 and 35.80 support.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:19:06 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:18:13 PM
Short @ 1102, lower stop to 1102 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  3:16:27 PM
This week, the Nasdaq's trading pattern has been roughly bounded by the 200-sma above and the 200-ema below.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  3:14:18 PM
Harford (HIG) $54.63 +2.51% ... bumps against that "zone of resistance" again from $54.80-$55.40.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:13:46 PM
Nothing spectacular Jane but +2 here, +2 there has added up to a good day. I just hope we get below SPX 1100 and stay there. I'm much more comfortable short but will continue to follow price around and try to ignore my bias.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  3:12:02 PM
JetBlue Airways (JBLU) is testing support at the $20.00 mark for the third time in the last four weeks. Earnings are expected on Oct. 28th.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  3:11:46 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/20/20,  3:10:24 PM
All the traders in the MM are doing so well. Marc does extremely well with NQ, Jim extremely well with ES and Mark with SPX.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  3:09:16 PM
AMZN continues to look vulnerable with the breakdown under the neckline of its slanted H&S pattern and yesterday's failed rally at the $40 level and its simple 50-dma. AMZN reports earnings tomorrow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  3:08:44 PM
A 30 min channel downphase is trying to kick off against the sideways 60 min channel bottom. This can break in either direction, and the 30 min channel has widened accordingly. 30 min channel support is 35.80, resistance 36.20. A move to the low end of this range for longer than 15 minutes should roll the 60 min channel back down.

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/20/20,  3:08:40 PM
Mark you have made +9.5 points today - wow !

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  3:08:31 PM
EBAY is slipping toward support at $90 before its earnings report tonight. Estimates are for 27 cents a share.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:06:32 PM
We rolled over right at the last swing high in the 1103 area. I definitely feel more comfortable short but these swings have been profitable today... +9.5

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  3:04:21 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1102, +2
Short again @ 1102, stop 1103

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  3:04:19 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jim Fabyn   10/20/20,  3:00:43 PM
10 Yr Note: If the TYZ04 closes above 113.19 that will be the highest close since 4/1/04.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:58:52 PM
Long @ 1100, raise stop to 1102
Go short again immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  2:58:06 PM
The OEX rejects its H&S formation . . . unless it's forming a new one with a horizontal neckline at about 523.25. We'll know soon, as a climb above 531 will reject the formation.

 
 
  Jim Fabyn   10/20/20,  2:55:18 PM
I think the 10 yr Note at 3.993% is telling us where the market is going, how far up will they get, and how far down will the market go. I'll bet Thur and Fri will be hummmmdinnngggeeerrrs. Bond yields under 4% typically point to a down market and an economic recession.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:54:44 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) 3.993% ... refuses to slip back below WEEKLY S1.

SPX 1,101.00

JNJ $57.40

My thinking is/was, with oil higher and buying in Treasuries, if 10-year closed below WEEKLY S1, stock will/would sell off to the close.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:54:14 PM
Long @ 1100, stop 1100 and break even
Go short again immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  2:46:07 PM
QQQ is now testing the top of 35.98-36.02 resistance. Bulls need to clear 36.02, failing which a test of 35.84 should be imminent.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:45:53 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1100, +2
Now long @ 1100, stop 1099
Go short again immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  2:44:12 PM
There's been no quick bounce back above the OEX's H&S formation on its 5-minute chart, but neither has the OEX dropped quickly toward the target predicted by that H&S. It's turning up now to retest that neckline, and the SPX is doing the same.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:44:11 PM
Short @ 1102, lower stop to 1100
Go long immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:43:13 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) 3.990 ... sitting here. 17-minute to close.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:42:20 PM
If you step back a bit and view the larger picture today's action makes some sense. SPX printed a large red bearish engulfing candle yesterday... today we dropped to a strong support area before trying to reclaim SPX 1100. Naturally we overshot. I am beginning to think of "overthrows" and "underthrows" as misnomers. They seem to be the norm rather than the exception, however for TA purposes they are still valid, as long as you keep in mind that TA "targets" are usually used by the large trading houses for stop running purposes. The trick is to figure out whether markets will continue beyond support/resistance areas in a directional move.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  2:41:43 PM
If 35.95 QQQ proves to be a small short cycle head and shoulder pattern, then the implied targe witll be just below 35.70 near the session lows. Volume is thin here, and I'm waiting to see whether the 30 min cycle is going to give up its upphase- a move below 35.84 should do it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:34:19 PM
Sell Prog. Premium ... SPX 1,099.61 , QQQ $35.98 .... TNX.X 3.898%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:30:57 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $28.26 -2.2% ... testing opening tick low here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  2:30:15 PM
The short cycle downphase is still being felt in QQQ, but I'd consider a failure to crack 35.98 as a reconfirmation of the upphase brewing in the 60 min cycle.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  2:28:53 PM
The OEX falls below the neckline of its H&S displayed on the chart linked to my 14:27 post. Bears should be wary of a quick bounce back above that neckline (isn't happening yet), but without that quick bounce, the downside target would be at about 526.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:27:46 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 4.7 bp at 3.993%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:27:12 PM
Day trade short alert for JNJ $57.40 here, stop $57.55, target $56.68.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:27:05 PM
Cancel the 1102 long trigger for now...
Still short @ 1102, stop 1102 and break even

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  2:27:00 PM
OEX H&S, neckline being tested: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:24:59 PM
That was close... I really didn't want to go long

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  2:23:22 PM
The SPX perhaps forms a H&S with a neckline at just under 1100 and with the head at the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline off Tuesday's high.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:20:38 PM
Short @ 1102, stop 1102 and break even
Go long immediately if stopped out
TRIN is dropping

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  2:18:07 PM
Gold has pulled back slightly along with bonds, currently up 3.70 at 425.30. Ditto silver at 7.333, up .143 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  2:16:42 PM
The SPX has just moved back above the 200-ema and 1100, but it's still below resistance at about 1103.50-1104.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:14:34 PM
This bounce remains suspect as long as TRIN hovers near HOD (1.47)... currently printing 1.42

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:14:07 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) ... back above 4.0% .... thought bulls might drive it back lower.

JNJ $47.46 +1.5% ... session high. No profile at this point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  2:13:21 PM
QQQ continues to respect its range. A short cycle downphase has started within the now-stalled 30 min channel upphase and what continues to appear as a 60 min channel low. 35.98-36.22 is the range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:11:30 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:05:28 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/20/20,  2:03:23 PM
GOOG getting whacked today to the tune of -5.50 one day before their earnings. Appears some Google bulls may be reconsidering their confidence levels.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  2:02:50 PM
There goes 1100, if we continue lower the next number to watch will be Dow 9800. Bulls do NOT want 9800 to crack.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  2:01:56 PM
Day trade short setting up alert ..... will be looking for a short in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  1:59:41 PM
The OEX's daily Keltner chart makes a slide down toward 523 look almost inevitable, but it doesn't necessarily suggest that it will slide down there today or even before a bounce. A bounce to and rollover from 534.40 or even the 538-540 levels could occur first. That's the outlook on the daily chart. The 15-minute chart suggests that a climb toward 532-534 will likely happen before a sliding down to 523, but that's dependent on the OEX finding support near 528.50 on a 15-minute closing basis on any pullbacks.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:57:44 PM
The -2.5 point dip from the 1103 area came right at the stop running push timeframe. So far we've retraced about +1 point, or approximately the minimal 38.2% fib number. Unless we get going to the upside pretty soon the trend may resume its downward tilt.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  1:53:30 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 3.9 bp at 4.001% .....

SPX 1,101.32 -0.17% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  1:53:06 PM
The OEX did find some support from just above 529. Although Keltner resistance isn't quite as firm on the three-minute chart as it was a few minutes ago, the OEX would still need to negotiate a thicket of Keltner lines on the three-minute chart in order to rise past 531. If it lingers long enough on that attempt to climb, however, that may allow Keltner support to gather beneath it, too. For now, Keltner resistance still looks stronger than support.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:52:36 PM
There's the buy signal @ SPX 1101... now let's see if it goes anywhere. Dow is helping, TRIN is not looking good right now but can change quickly.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:50:14 PM
SPX 1-min chart is very close to printing a fresh buy signal but with TRIN near HOD it could just as easily print a MACD bearish kiss rather than a bullish cross. A bearish kiss could be the straw that broke the camel's back and send us below 1100.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:44:39 PM
TRIN approaching HOD again... currently printing 1.40
If we slice through 1100 like it wasn't there look out below.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:41:39 PM
Short @ 1102, lower stop to 1102 and break even
SPX 1100 is the line in the sand and if we get there again it will be a natural bounce point, however a failure of 1100 should seal the deal for a short play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  1:37:32 PM
The OEX violated the ascending trendline off this morning's low. The three-minute chart suggests a downside of 528.20, but the OEX might attempt a bounce from 529.08, back to retest that Keltner resistance. It still looks strong enough to turn the OEX back again.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:33:49 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1102, -0.50
Now short @ 1102, stop 1103

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:32:43 PM
Critical juncture here (short-term). B-band are converging on the 1102.50 area and it could go either way.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:30:13 PM
SPX just printed a buy signal after a shallow pullback from the 1104 area but TRIN is still slightly bearish @ 1.20, thus the tight stop. We will continue to follow price around with tight stops until we get a directional move.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  1:26:48 PM
QQQ is just running the clock here between 35.98 and 36.02. The 30 min cycle is still in its weakening upphase and the 60 min cycle is still flat, trying to turn up. A break of either end of the current range should be directional.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  1:25:09 PM
The OEX tries to head up from the support of the rising trendline off today's low. I'm switching to a three-minute chart, and see that Keltner resistance has massed above the OEX on that chart, so that it looks vulnerable to a decline toward 528.20. The OEX would need to sustain values above 531 to change the outlook predicted by that chart.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:24:40 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1102.50, +1
Now long @ 1102.50, stop 1102
Go short again immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:23:01 PM
Short @ 1103.50, lower stop to 1102.50
Go long immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/20/20,  1:21:08 PM
The Teradyne bounce is unbelievable given their warning. The bad news bulls are definitely back in the chip sector.

 
 
  Jim Fabyn   10/20/20,  1:18:37 PM
Are the Notes going to break above the trendline soon? This is something that bares watching. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  1:16:11 PM
The OEX heads down to test the ascending trendline off today's low. By the way, it turned down from the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline off yesterday's high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  1:14:12 PM
Teradyne (TER) $14.81 +4.22% ... decent little pop after last night's guidance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:10:13 PM
SPX is going sideways... this "should" result in resolution to the downside.
Benchmarking... SPX = 1102.70

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  1:08:56 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  1:08:00 PM
I'm seeing 2 hours of bearish MACD divergence on the SOX 1-min chart and the SOX is right at the lower b-band. If it is going to roll over this should be the spot.
Benchmarking... SOX = 395.75
The reason for watching the SOX so closely is because of the effect it has on our SPX (ES) short.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  1:05:40 PM
The OEX pulls back from its test of mid-Keltner resistance, but it's still maintaining the ascending trendline off today's low, with that trendline crossing at about 529.70. If that's a bear flag, it hasn't broken down yet. If it is a bear flag, it should probably break down before the OEX retraces more than 532.40, the 50% retracement of the steep decline off yesterday's high.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/20/20,  1:02:45 PM
Wide INDU range today 9900/9800, question is will it go lower? I would like to see a possible bullish divergence. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  1:01:04 PM
QQQ printed a session high at 36.23, and the 36.20-.22 level continues to hold as resistance. But if bears can't get back below 35.98-36.02, then the bulls will get their break as the 30 and 60 min channels continue their rise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:58:44 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/20/20,  12:57:31 PM
Looks like a bullish hammer developing on the daily SPX today, might be to early to say.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  12:54:44 PM
Another reason 532 may be important on the OEX: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:53:21 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1103.50, +3.5
Now short @ 1103.50, stop 1104.50

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:48:48 PM
Long @ 1100, raise stop to 1103.50
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  12:47:17 PM
The OEX finally did confirm its inverse H&S on its three-minute chart, setting up an upside target just over 533. However, the OEX faces that ascending trendline that had formed the neckline of its potential H&S on the 15-minute chart, with that neckline at about 532. The OEX's climb has a bit of a rising wedge look to it as it approaches that resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:47:10 PM
I couldn't get the 1104 stop/short entry typed fast enough before we dropped below 1104. That may or may not be a good thing. I can see SPX taking a crack at 1105 but would be surprise to see it go much higher. I think what we are seeing now is short-covering.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  12:44:36 PM
At about 3373, the TRAN will hit the top of its broadening formation on its five-minute chart. The TRAN is at 3371.01 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  12:44:00 PM
Here's the QQQ test of 36.20-.22.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:42:29 PM
Long @ 1100, raise stop to 1103
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:41:15 PM
Long @ 1100, raise stop to 1102.50
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  12:41:10 PM
The USD Index is making a new low for the move. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:36:24 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.74 +1.98% ... Nice move above WEEKLY R2 $28.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:35:38 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) down just 2.8 bp now at 4.013% and this morning's gap lower high. DAILY S1 right here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:34:22 PM
SOX.X 395.58 +1.87% .... session high and yesterday's highs right here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:32:19 PM
Long @ 1100, raise stop to 1102
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:31:01 PM
One more push higher to the 1103 area before rolling over would be a beautiful thing for a scalp long/short entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:30:16 PM
NYSE Comp. (NYA.X) 6,532 +0.02% .... session lows came at WEEKLY R1 (6,497) and 50% retracment 6,505.

WEEKLY Pivot overlaps 61.8% retracement of 6,574.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  12:29:55 PM
QQQ has made it to next weak resistance at 36.12, but on light volume. Nonetheless, look for 36.02 to act as support now, with the key test lined up for 36.20-.22.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:27:12 PM
Long @ 1100, raise stop to 1101
Go short immediately if stopped out. If given the chance I will raise the stop/short trigger to 1102 as soon as possible.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:27:04 PM
S&P Insurance (IUX.X) .... 274.62 +0.02% back at unchanged.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:26:14 PM
Universal Health (UHS $41.06 -0.36% .... little-moved after Piper Jaffray cuts to "market perform"

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:25:36 PM
Long @ 1100, raise stop to 1100 and break even
Go short immediately if stopped out
If we can rise and hold above 1101 for a little while I will raise the stop/short trigger to 1101. I believe it is going to be very difficult for the market to advance much higher from these levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  12:25:20 PM
QQQ continues to dance around the 35.98-36.02 confluence, just sliding sideways. While it's running the clock on the 30 min cycle bulls, the 60 min cycle, which moves much more gradually, is just beginning to turn up now. Just as there was a choppy lag yesterday morning as these cycles rolled over, the same is occuring now in reverse. If 35.95 holds the dips, then we should be set for a more bullish move within the coming 1-2 hours as the 60 min channel completes its upward turn.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  12:25:01 PM
The TRAN climbs again. Unfortunately, the TRAN 's pattern now has a bit of a broadening or megaphone look to it on the five-minute chart, so it's difficult now to pick out a breakout or breakdown point. Such formations are notoriously difficult to trade since they're indicative of emotion-based trading. We're not trying to trade the TRAN, of course, but are instead using it to measure the likelihood of a bounce or of more declines. Unfortunately, that megaphone shape means that it's not a good barometer for us. Each zoom higher so far has resulted in a lower low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:20:25 PM
Hartford (HIG) $54.40 +2.12% ... big bid coming here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  12:19:46 PM
Session high for Dec. silver at 7.37, +2.5%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:18:43 PM
VIX.X 15.00 -15.44% ... session low.

SPX 1,100.71 .... most active options are Nov. 1,100 call (5,673 : 14,900), Dec. 1,100 call (5,014 : 46,719)

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:16:19 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1100 and break even
Now long @ 1100, stop 1099

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:15:11 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  12:12:13 PM
The right shoulder on the potential inverse H&S on the OEX's three-minute chart is looking a bit out of proportion to the other shoulder. As sometimes happens, the formation has morphed into a triangle shape at the bottom of the decline, but even that shape is somewhat rough and badly formed.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  12:11:21 PM
Short @ 1100, lower stop to 1100 and break even...
Go long immediately if stopped out

The SOX, although very near HOD is showing bearish MACD divergence. If it begins a decline that should help our short play but if it starts making new highs it could kill our short, therefore the protective measures.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  12:09:10 PM
Dec. crude is up 1.80 to 54.45, +3.42%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  12:04:33 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:59:20 AM
That 11:33 swing low is currently acting as support and we are bouncing weakly. If the bounce fails we will be in business but the jury is still out... gaining strength as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:54:48 AM
We need to take out the 11:33 swing low @ 1098.17 to goose this short play into high gear

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:54:15 AM
Session high for gold here at 427.2, up 5.60 and now back above the rising wedge support profiled in last night's futures wrap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:51:36 AM
November Heating Oil (ho04x) $1.557 +3.21% (30-minute delayed) .... contract highs (recent $1.5555).

WEEKLY Pivots as follows .... $1.3956, 1.4723, Piv=1.5116 , 1.5883, 1.6276.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  11:51:19 AM
The OEX turns back, perhaps to retest the right-shoulder level of its potential inverse H&S, as well as the Keltner support trying to build at that right-shoulder level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:49:36 AM
Intel (INTC) $21.22 +2.01% .... just off yesterday's high. Yet to see a trade at WEEKLY R1 $21.35 this week, but WEEKLY Pivot $20.78 truly looking like a pivot this week (resistance Monday, support into yesterday's close).

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:49:24 AM
That big red 1-min candle was just what bears needed

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:47:36 AM
Texas Instruments (TXN) $22.82 +1.28% back above WEEKLY R2 $22.62, challenging yesterday's high

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:46:12 AM
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) $43.73 +2.31% .... breaches WEEKLY R1 $43.67. Had some trouble here yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  11:45:36 AM
OEX support near 527.60-527.80 continues to try to firm up. The OEX's three-minute chart shows a potential inverse H&S with a neckline at about 530.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:45:19 AM
QQQ just can't get away from that 35.98-36.02 confluence. 30 min cycle support has risen to 35.68, lined up with flattening 60 min support as well. Even staying at this level long enough will be enough to kick off a 30 min cycle upphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:42:43 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) ... 9,863 -0.35% ... breadth negative at 21 to 9.

INTC +1.92%, MMM +1.36%, MSFT +1.16%, XOM +1.1%

HON -2.8%, JPM -2.4%, AIG -1.49%, PFE -1.41%

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:41:32 AM
Now short @ 1100, stop 1101

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:39:36 AM
Go short with a drop to 1100

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:37:20 AM
35.98 confluence has held, with QQQ currently up to 36.06. Because of how oversold the 30 min cycle had been, this bounce should not fail. Look for a move above 36.20-.22 to kick off a new 30 min cycle upphase.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:36:13 AM
Cancel the 1098 short trigger... we will enter at a higher level

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  11:35:14 AM
The OEX is perhaps forming a bear flag as it climbs. Support is trying to firm up beneath it at 527.30-527.80, but that support isn't firmed yet, so it's uncertain if it will hold if tested.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/20/20,  11:34:07 AM
Huffy joins Wonder Bread, maker of Twinkies in bankruptcy. Sure makes you think when a 76-year bicycle maker and the "builder of strong bodies 12 ways" both fail.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:33:12 AM
Go short again with a touch of 1098

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  11:31:20 AM
The 76-year old bicycle maker Huffy Corp has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:30:57 AM
Waiting patiently here for another short entry. I hope I didn't miss it @ 1100.68. 1101 was one of the levels I was watching but TRIN was @ .99 when we crossed 1100 and I thought we might get up to 1102.50 or so... we still may but I'll be watching closely for another short entry if we get above 1100 again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:29:46 AM
The Fed has added a modest net 1.25B add with a 3.25B overnight repo to replace the 2B expiring.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:20:01 AM
QQQ is pulling back, retesting the lower confluence bar at 35.98 currently. If the breakout is for real, this test should hold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:15:03 AM
11:10 Market Watch at this Link

Oil futures are 30-minute delayed, but gives 10:40 AM EDT quote

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  11:14:31 AM
The OEX is testing Keltner resistance at 529.40. This could be a point at which the OEX is temporarily turned back to retest Keltner support, but if it breaks through . . . as it appears to be doing as I type, it might rise all the way toward a test of 532 resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:13:27 AM
Session highs for QQQ and NQ on the upside breakout above 36.02 Next resisstance is 36.20.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:12:34 AM
Stopped out of short play @ 1098.68 and break even
Stand by for another short entry... 1100, 1101 and 1103 are three areas that look good

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:10:45 AM
35.98 QQQ marked the top of the bounce from 35.65 and we now have our working range. My gut is favoring an upside break because of teh extremely oversold readings that preceded this bounce, but a break in either direction should be directional.

 
 
  Jim Fabyn   10/20/20,  11:10:35 AM
W-5000 monthly S-1 was 10712, we hit 10715.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:10:13 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  11:04:37 AM
Although the OEX minimally violated the 15-minute Keltner channel's lower support, it did so only minimally, leaving only a candle shadow below the lined, and now it bounces back above that support. If this is the only 15-minute violation, then it's less severe than that of 10/14, although the low today was actually a lower low. This shows tentative bullish divergence between the two violations, but that tentative bullish divergence can be reversed, of course. Turning to the seven-minute chart, I see that first Keltner resistance is near 528.30-528.40. Above that, next Keltner resistance is at 529.11, and it's possible that one of those might send the OEX lower for the creation of an equal or slightly higher low before it really takes off again. I also suspect that the OEX might eventually work its way up to retest mid-channel resistance, with that now at 532.60, but declining fairly rapidly, so that I can imagine it matching up with the neckline of one-shouldered H&S by the time the OEX tests it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:04:28 AM
SPX.X 1,098.31 -0.44% ... off session low of 1,094.25.

Might be seeing a little asset allocacation shift.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  11:04:09 AM
I'm just going to let the short get stopped out at 1098.68 break even if we keep going up and will be looking to get short again from a higher level

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:03:48 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) lifting a bit .... down 4.9 bp at 3.991%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  11:03:43 AM
The 35.65 QQQ session low is looking pretty solid now, but bulls need to clear confluence resistance from 35.98-36.02 to seal the deal. The short cycle oscillators are on the verge of a new upphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:03:20 AM
TRIN 1.08 -20.5% .... back lower to DAILY Pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  11:01:48 AM
EIA report at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  10:58:48 AM
The TRAN is negative now.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  10:58:42 AM
Oil driller Diamond Offshore (DO) is up 5.5% to $34.68 and nearing new two-year highs after reporting earnings that beat estimates by 5 cents. At least three analysts have come up with upgrades for the stock today. The $35 level is major resistance for DO. Watch for the breakout.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  10:56:27 AM
Genzyme Corp (GENZ) beat estimates by 4 cents and guided in-line but the stock is still slipping lower. The daily chart shows what appears to be a failed-rally at the simple 50-dma today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:52:27 AM
New HOD for TRIN @ 1.44... watch out if 9800 caves

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:52:07 AM
We have a bounce from a low of 35.65, with QQQ currently trading 35.74. Keep in mind that any of these support levels could be "the" one, given the oversold intraday cycles. But because the daily cycle is in gear to the downside, any bounce, overdue as it is, should be corrective. That means to be careful, and not get skinned trying to catch falling knives. Below 35.98, these bounces are best thought of as pauses.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:50:55 AM
It appears they are keying in on Dow round number support again... first it was 10000, then 9900, now 9800

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:50:39 AM
Distillate inventories ... fell by 1.9 million barrels. Fell for 5th week in a row. This is the "headline" number that oil traders are focusing on. Reason for oil futures rise.

As I understand it... distillates equate to roughly 25% of a barrel's yield, and pressure on inventory here, builds the picture of continued demand.

Heating oil, diesel fuel is "distillate." If you drive a diesel car/truck, or have noticed that diesel fuel is priced higher than unleaded, then perhaps we can make sense of the distillate inventories being the focus number.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:49:26 AM
Conservative traders can take +4 now if they don't like the risk/reward for further downside. I couldn't argue against that position.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  10:49:00 AM
Delta Airlines (DAL) is slipping toward new lows, down 5% to $2.84, after reporting earnings that missed estimates by 23 cents.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:47:48 AM
Gold remains solid, up 4.60 at 426.20, while HUI is up 2.43% at 226.85 and XAU up 2.25% at 101.18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  10:47:37 AM
The OEX hit the bottom support on the 15-minute Keltner chart and head toward potential Keltner support on the 30-minute one, at 526.22.

Coming into today, the OEX had created a potential H&S on the 15-minute chart, but it was still lacking a right shoulder. I had hoped that it would rise into that right shoulder this morning, even if it was a blunted right shoulder, and give want-to-be bears a new entry. That didn't happen, and the OEX then dropped through the neckline area. We should perhaps consider that neckline area potential resistance now, especially as it crosses at about 532 now, the site of known S/R anyway. If that H&S had finished forming, the downside target would have been about 524.60, so we should perhaps keep that in mind. Sure wish we'd see a bounce first up to retest the neckline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:47:03 AM
36.66 being tested now. There's minor support at 35.54, followed by stronger support at 35.48 QQQ.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:46:21 AM
Today is a clean break of SPX 1100 so even if we stabilize I am in "short any rally" mode now.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  10:46:10 AM
Dow-component Honeywell (HON) is down 4.79% to $33.74 and breaking support at its simple 200-dma, exponential 200-dma and the $34 level after reporting earnings that were in-line with estimates.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:44:50 AM
QQQ is breaking the former lows, with the 30 min cycle in a downside trending move, both it and the 60 min channels pointed straight down. Next support is 35.66.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  10:44:43 AM
Wow! JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) is getting crushed. Yesterday the stock traded from $25.55 to close at $18.81. Today JAKK is down another 28% to $13.46. The company reported earnings on Oct. 19th and beat estimates by 31 cents while guiding higher for the next quarter.

So why are shares dropping? JAKK has been hit with a lawsuit from the World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) company.

At least one broker has followed up with a "sell" rating on JAKK.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:44:02 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,826 -0.71% ... similar to 10-year YIELD, testing "old downward trend" here. If bulls are going to defend, better start now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:41:26 AM
VIX.X 15.36 +1.52% .... no sign of panic at this point and just under morning high of 15.52.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:40:55 AM
Stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  10:40:54 AM
FLIR gapped down and traded to $49.15, it's simple 200-dma, before bouncing this morning. The drop was powered by its Q3 earnings numbers, which were in-line with estimates. The company guided in-line for the fourth quarter.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:40:05 AM
Long @ 1098.68, stop 1098.68 and break even
Cancel the long entry... I'd rather get stopped out break even and go short again from a higher level.

 
 
  Jim Fabyn   10/20/20,  10:39:56 AM
Tuesday's action qualified as a market reversal day, with more downside to come. Using the regression tool on the INDU daily chart, with a deviation setting of 2, the downside projection is 9550. We also have the right shoulder of a H&S pattern trying to complete itself with a potential drop to 9200. MACD is pointing down and October is not over yet. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:38:43 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 5.1 bp at 3.989% ... I'd consider this a major YIELD support level here. If we break further lower, I'd have to view further negative for equities via defensive response from bond market.

Support derived from DAILY S2, WEEKLY S1 as well as old downward trend offering being testes as I type.

 
 
  James Brown   10/20/20,  10:37:52 AM
Whirlpool (WHR) is down 5.3% to $56.10 after reporting earnings this morning and missing estimates by 2 cents. The company guided its Q4 estimates lower.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:36:51 AM
TRIN just changed to green on my screen (above yesterday's close)... currently printing 1.36

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:36:43 AM
Session high for bonds here, TNX -5.2 bps at 3.988% currently. QQQ made a nominal new low at 35.74, but it's close enough to qualify as a double bottom is QQQ can get back above 35.92.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  10:36:28 AM
The TRAN never did meet its upside target for the double-bottom on its five-minute chart, and now has dropped all the way back almost to that double-bottom level. It's trying to steady just above that level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:32:25 AM
35.75 QQQ support is again in play. Next support is close by at 35.66.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:31:42 AM
Sell Prog. Prem SPX 1,096.73 , QQQ $35.80.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:30:37 AM
Short @ 1098.68, lower stop to 1098.68 and break even
Go long immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/20/20,  10:30:09 AM
Alert - Oil Inventories +1.2MB, (est was +2MB) Gasoline -700K bbls

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  10:28:57 AM
The OEX is below the 10/7 low, approaching the low suggested by the 15-minute Keltner channel support. (See my 9:54 post.) That 15-minute Keltner support has declined to 527.41. If that support holds, however, the OEX will have been showing bullish divergence, Keltner style. If it doesn't hold, the 30-minute chart shows a vulnerability down to 526.42.

This could be just one of those days when the OEX just drops and keeps dropping all day, but bears should still keep their profit-protecting plans updated as the OEX moves deeper into a possible short-term support zone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:28:35 AM
Hartford (HIG) $53.30 +0.01% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:27:58 AM
Insurance Index (IUX.X) 272.65 -0.69% .... 50% retracement here and losing its "Spitzer lows" of 273.47.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:25:42 AM
QQQ can't put together more than a corrective bounce so far despite the deeply oversold intraday cycles. This is a very bearish picture below 36.07 QQQ, which is first minor resistance from here. Gold is higher at 425, with HUI and XAU up 2.32% and 2.16% respectively.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:22:01 AM
Go short now... 1098.68, stop 1099.68
Go long immediately if stopped out
The oil inventory numbers could trigger a sharp move either way

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:20:32 AM
Stopped out of long @ 1098.70, -1

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:18:59 AM
SPX printed a buy signal right out of the gate and it has never aborted, plus there is 45 minutes of MACD bullish divergence with price. My preferred position is still short but I can't ignore what I'm seeing. The best we can do is follow price with tight stops. If we get a clean break below 1100 I think it has potential to be a great trade but we aren't there yet......... just as I type this we drop

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  10:18:49 AM
Subscriber/contributor Tab G. has taught us to watch the GHA, the most heavily weighted sector in the NDX according to his research. Yesterday's daily candle was an ugly shooting star candle, a potential reversal signal, and today's candle declines from the small body of yesterday's candle. Not a good sign.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:17:56 AM
Marsh McLennan (MMC) $23.25 -3.5% ... Company in talks with lenders regarding four of its revolving credit facilities totaling $2.76 billion. Company saying matters raised in NY Attorney General's civil complaint may prohibit company from borrowing under the facilities, which contain clauses as to no material adverse litigation and compliance with laws.

The revolving credit facilities support the company's commercial paper borrowings. As of Tuesday, no amounts were outstanding under any of the facilities.

According to reports, lenders of the facilities have agreed to waive the effect of clauses to material adverse ligitation until December 30. Under these agreements, Marsh has agreed that it will use the facilities exclusively for supporting its commercial paper borrowings, which Marsh said would not exceed $1.9 billion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  10:14:43 AM
The TRAN has now confirmed its double-bottom formation on its five-minute chart, but it's now facing Keltner resistance and may need to retreat to the 3358.37 confirmation level. The TRAN is at 3361.70 as I type. The upside target is just above 3370. Is the TRAN's action telling us that markets are trying to mount a short-term bounce? (The TRAN's daily chart is much more troublesome for bulls, but we're looking at right now.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:13:03 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:12:56 AM
Stopped out of short @ 1099.70 and break even
Now long @ 1099.70, stop 1098.70

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:11:55 AM
We have MACD bullish divergence since the opening bell and it's making me nervous about being short.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:11:10 AM
Yesterday afternoon's 30 min cycle downphase is deeply oversold and at a level from which I'd expect a bounce at any time. However, the bounce is being delayed by the ongoing 60 min cycle downphase which is causing it to trend. QQQ bulls ned a break above 36.08 to kick off a short cycle upphase, which should carry the torch above 36.22, above which the 30 min cycle upphase will be in progress.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  10:10:01 AM
Short @ 1099.70, lower stop to 1099.70 and break even
Go long immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  10:09:28 AM
Remember that there's a confirmed double-top formation on the OEX's daily chart. It has a downside target near 512. However, the OEX has been hesitating at the confirmation level (529.86) for a while over recent days, and we should perhaps have some hesitancy, too, in believing too strongly in that confirmation. It might be that bulls are still trying to mount a rejection of that double-top formation and its downside target. I believe that it's probably at least 50/50 that the confirmation is valid, but that it's possible that the OEX could still bounce somewhere up into the rectangular 530-535 consolidation zone it's been building. Those who wanted to base a downside play on a confirmation of that double-top could use that 529.86 level as a benchmark, with the OEX bearish below that level and with stops set an account appropriate amount above it, but such traders are risking a bounce up to 530.50-531 or perhaps 533-534 and should be ready to bail if their stops are hit. Lately, breakdown plays within amateur hour have not been successful plays, so I'd prefer to wait for a bounce and rollover before suggesting such plays. Not sure the OEX will give us that opportunity, but the approach to the 10/14 low at 528.75 might produce just such a bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  10:05:49 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  10:02:30 AM
Back. A friend who didn't mind being awoken gave me the corrected router settings and it was fixed within minutes. Putting away my XP Pro setup CD. I'm going to sip an ounce of scotch and be back shortly.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  9:59:13 AM
Our short play needs SPX to do more than make a minor new low. We need to crack the 1100 level convincingly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  9:54:20 AM
There's a real possibility developing on the 15-minute Keltner chart that the OEX could roll down toward 527.60. To avoid that possibility, we need to see a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 530.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  9:53:30 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  9:49:37 AM
The 7-minute Keltner channel proves the most reliable again, with this morning's OEX low having pierced the lowest 7-minute Keltner support, but with the candle body forming at that support. Seven-minute candles are now forming along that lower support. They're looking rather weak right now, so that it's not clear if the OEX will be able to rise from that support or not. If they do, 530.68-531.05 appears to be next relatively strong resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  9:49:09 AM
VIX.X 15.36 +1.52% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows .... 13.99, 14.55, Piv= 14.87 , 15.43, 15.76.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  9:45:52 AM
Stopped out of long play @ 1099.70 and break even
Now short @ 1099.70, stop 1101.70

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  9:43:57 AM
TRIN 1.18 -13.23% .... SPX 1,100.50.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  9:43:47 AM
Long @ 1099.70, raise stop to 1099.70 and break even
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  9:40:55 AM
The OEX has exceeded the downside target of its H&S if I calculated that target correctly. Its 10/14 low was 528.75, but the 15-minute Keltner chart now suggests that unless the OEX quickly pulls up toward the Keltner line now at 530.63, it risks falling toward 527.70. Still, there's much bounce potential through this zone. Protect profits if in bearish plays, and probably only adept scalpers should be considering long ones, and even they should wait for clear signs a short-term bottom has been put in.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  9:40:05 AM
ING Group (ING) indicated $25.03 -3.17% Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  9:35:56 AM
The TRAN was unable to confirm its double-bottom formation, but hasn't yet dropped below the bottom level, either. We follow the TRAN because it's often served as a leading indicator of sorts lately. It may be in the process of forming a double-top formation on the daily chart, but I'm watching for indications as to how markets might behave on the short-term this morning.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/20/20,  9:34:23 AM
Go long now... 1099.70, stop 1095.70

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  9:34:23 AM
Hartford Group (HIG) $53.19 -0.18% ... relatively flat open.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  9:34:21 AM
Defying expectations as often occurs, the TRAN gapped up this morning, trying to confirm a double-bottom formation on its five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/20/20,  9:33:23 AM
ING Group (ING) $25.85 .... delayed open after company said it received a subpoena from New York Attorney General.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  9:32:39 AM
The OEX drops toward 530 and perhaps toward the 529.60-ish downside target of its intraday H&S yesterday, at 530.79 as I type. Those in bearish plays should have profit-protecting plans in place for the current level, with those plans depending on the time frame of the play and trading style.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  9:30:48 AM
Having more router woes today and unable to connect for longer than a few seconds. Will be back shortly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  9:25:54 AM
Immediately after/as I posted my 7:13 update on the markets, our futures dropped again. The dollar dropped toward its overnight low against the yen, not yet matching that overnight low, and dropped to a new relative low against the euro. As I mentioned in my 3:59 post yesterday, the H&S on the OEX's intraday charts had a downside target of about 529.60 and it was possible that we'd see follow-through down to that target this morning. With futures lower, that's possible. I would hope that we would then see a bounce up toward 533.50-534 and a rollover there as a new opportunity for a bearish entry, but I'm not sure that entry will be offered, as markets could just keep diving or 532 could prove to be tough resistance even if there is a bounce attempt. My impression at yesterday's close, however, was that there might be a bounce attempt from somewhere near that 529.60-ish downside H&S target. That might have been a fever-induced vision, however, with my impressions clouded by being ill. Markets could just abort the bounce attempt and dive. We'll see how things look as the markets open, but for now, I'm favoring a tepid bounce attempt, but one I wouldn't personally risk trading by going long.

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/20/20,  9:13:02 AM
Dateline WSJ -Marsh & McLennan Cos., under fire from regulators, suspended four employees whose names have surfaced as part of the New York attorney general's case alleging corrupt practices in the insurance industry, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The move by the world's largest insurance broker represents the first company fallout from the scandal. Last week, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer accused Marsh in a civil complaint of cheating corporate clients by rigging bids in arranging their insurance coverage. The day after the charges were filed, Marsh replaced the chairman and chief executive of Marsh Inc., its insurance-brokerage unit, but said it didn't reflect on his performance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/20/20,  8:11:03 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1098.75, NQ 1439.5, YM 9851 and QQQ -.15 at 35.73. Gold is up 3 to 424.60, silver +.069 to 7.259, ten year bonds +.25 to 113.5312 and Nymex crude -.325 at 53.35.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/20/20,  7:13:01 AM
Good morning. Bourses almost uniformly posted losses in the overnight market, pressured by Motorola's forecast and concerns about growth in China. Our futures held steady and even climbed a little off the low reached after that forecast. As of 6:56 EST, gold was up 3.40 and crude up 0.12. More detail follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped below 11,000 again Wednesday morning, with stocks in Motorola's sector suffering after Motorola warned that revenue might not meet estimates. The dollar also fell to a low of 108.11 against the yen, a three-month low, with that fall pressuring Japanese exporters. This week, China is expected to report on economic growth for the quarter, and fears about the depth of China's slowdown also delivered a blow to exporters, adding commodity-related stocks throughout the region to those impacted by those fears. JFE Holdings, Posco, and BHP Billiton all declined, with JFE Holdings a Japanese company.

Most other Asian markets declined, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.33%, and South Korea's Kospi tumbled 3.17%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.87%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.18%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.53%.

Currently, all European bourses but one post losses, too, with those bourses also pressured by Motorola's forecast. Stocks such as Nokia and Alcatel declined. Insurers and miners pressure the U.K.'s bourses. U.K. homebuilder Taylor Wood reported that 2004's sales were likely to be 6% off target, but the company sees the U.K. market as still attractive and the U.S. market even more so. The homebuilders are watched closely in the U.K. because some have feared a bubble in the overheated housing market.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 40.40 points or 0.87%, to 4,614.80. The CAC 40 had fallen 32.34 points or 0.87%, to 3,668.22. The DAX had fallen 53.33 points or 1.35%, to 3,910.80.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/19/20,  9:45:35 PM
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