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  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  6:23:43 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  5:59:17 PM
GOOG is trading @ 161 in AH..... unreal! How much hype is left??? Not much I would guess.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  5:51:51 PM
GOOG $159.74 ... as CNBC guest analyst describe company as "undervalued asset."

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:50:39 PM
GOOG heading back to $160 on the highlight piece on Kudlow & Cramer

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:30:49 PM
MENT Alert - warning on revenue and earnings

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:23:40 PM
I am done with earnings for the day. Short of any material news crossing the wire I think we have a clear picture for tomorrow. All the chip stocks warned in some form. MSFT outlook was weak. Many stocks beat the estimates but the overall guidance was negative. S&P Futures are down -2 and NDX futures -7. The key now will be investor reaction. Dips to 9800 have been bought and the Nasdaq and Russell have been strong. Bad news priced in?

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:19:58 PM
GOOG finally losing steam at $158. Shorts may begin to pile on again tomorrow.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:17:35 PM
KLAC Alert - Warning that orders for Q4 could decline -10% and earnings now expected to be +0.58 cents.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  5:17:32 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:14:50 PM
ORCL extending the $21 offer for PSFT until Nov-5th

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  5:09:52 PM
Back to reality... MSFT currently trading @ 27.77, -0.70 cents below LOD

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:05:50 PM
IDTI earnings est +0.07, actual = +0.09
Announcing share buyback of $50 million

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  5:04:37 PM
GOOG just hit 157... unreal. Reminds me of XLA, RMBS and OCCP in their heydays... make that 158, no, 159... insane!

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:03:34 PM
MSFT saying Q4 could be weaker. Unearned revenue light for Q3.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  5:00:34 PM
BRCM Alert - Giving a strong warning on conference call of lower revenues due to order cancellations and pushouts.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:54:54 PM
GOOG has traded in an $18 range since the close from 140-158. Not a stock for the timid. It will be interesting to see if their confusing earnings release can sustain the current bounce. Investors don't normally like to hold a stock they can't understand.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  4:50:46 PM
GOOG ... 152.45 ... hasn't been able to hold a 5-minute close above today's DAILY R2 (153.16). Sellers at DAILY Pivot 143.78 wish they hand't

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:49:15 PM
GOOG Alert - earnings - clean proforma number is +0.70 cents and well above the +0.56 estimates. Revenue up +15% from Q2.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:47:12 PM
AMZN saying they are well positioned to move into the DVD rental space.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:44:51 PM
GOOG Now -$3 off the highs of 2 min ago. Unbelievable volatility.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:43:33 PM
GOOG on conference call saying there were items included in the headline number. Exact numbers still unknown. Shorts getting killed once again.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:42:17 PM
GOOG trading back at $155 and volume is flying by.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:40:20 PM
FINL 2:1 stock split

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:38:36 PM
BRCM earnings est +0.34, actual = +0.36
BRCM saying they see a further slowdown in orders in Q4. Also saying server chips are declining.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:33:01 PM
Alert - AMZN down -$3 in AH from closing levels

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:32:31 PM
EPNY earnings est -0.07, actual = -0.06

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:31:49 PM
ACF earnings est +0.39, actual = +0.43

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:29:24 PM
Alert - GOOG earnings are +0.45 but analysts not sure what is included. There were charges but no specific items on the wires. +0.45 appears to be the real number. GOOG down -$5 in AH

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:27:28 PM
PSFT earnings est +0.14, actual = +0.17

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:26:53 PM
OSTK earnings est N/A, actual = -0.16

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:25:35 PM
GOOG Alert - press release not yet out but numbers hitting the wires. Not sure if the +0.45 headline number is after items. Details to follow when available.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:24:07 PM
Alert - GOOG earnings est +0.56, actual = +0.45 BIG MISS!!!

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  4:23:11 PM
MSFT coming back but still 50 cents below LOD

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:22:45 PM
TQNT earnings est -0.04, actual = -0.03

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:21:43 PM
XLNX guiding down for Q4

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:21:03 PM
XLNX earnings est +0.24, actual = +0.24

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:20:52 PM
MCHP earnings est +0.29, actual = +0.29

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:20:45 PM
KLAC earnings est +0.57, actual = +0.58

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:20:37 PM
Alert - MSFT earnings est +0.30, actual clean number = +0.32

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  4:20:08 PM
MSFT cratering in AH... down a buck so far. That could change as they hash out details but the kneejerk reaction is sell now and ask questions later. This could very well set the tone of the market tomorrow so I am going to keep an eye on MSFT for the next hour or so.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:20:05 PM
MSFT -$1
GOOG -$3 ahead of earnings

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:19:26 PM
PLCM earnings est +0.19, actual = +0.19

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:18:07 PM
NSIT earnings est +0.29, actual = +0.30

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:16:31 PM
Alert - MSFT earnings est +0.30, actual = +0.27 headline - guidance below estimates - clean number ex items to follow

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:14:46 PM
HLIT earnings est -0.03, actual = -0.03

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  4:14:18 PM
Foundry Networks (FDRY) $10.78 +3.05% .... pops to $11.24 on headline number.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:13:51 PM
CPKI earnings est +0.25, actual = +0.27

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:12:56 PM
RHI earnings est +0.21, actual = +0.24

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  4:12:41 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity....

Stopped out of carryover day trade short in JNJ at $57.60. ($-0.20, or -0.35%)

Sold 3 covered puts in the Paychex Nov. $30 puts (PQX-WF) at the bid of $0.45 for a credit of $135.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:12:31 PM
ELX guidance below prior estimates

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:11:58 PM
CLS earnings est +0.08, actual = +0.11

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:11:14 PM
ELX earnings est +0.10, actual = +0.11

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:10:24 PM
CAMD earnings est +0.09, actual = +0.10

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:09:45 PM
YELL earnings est +1.34, actual = +1.38

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:09:33 PM
MCRL earnings est +0.07, actual = +0.08

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:09:24 PM
SFA earnings est +0.36, actual = +0.36

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:09:14 PM
FDRY earnings est +0.12, actual = +0.11

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:09:03 PM
ACS earnings est +0.71, actual = +0.72

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:08:19 PM
GNW earnings est +0.54, actual = +0.55

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:07:28 PM
KO earnings est +0.47, actual = +0.50 beat

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:07:15 PM
GILD dropping some products - tradig down

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:04:35 PM
SIAL earnings est +0.81, actual = +0.81

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:04:19 PM
WEBX earnings est +0.24, actual = +0.26

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:02:40 PM
MCK earnings est +0.24, actual = +0.29

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:01:47 PM
GILD earnings est +0.21, actual = +0.25

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:01:28 PM
Alert - AMZN earnings est +0.18, actual = +0.17 miss

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:00:39 PM
MENT earnings est +0.07, actual = +0.05

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:59:27 PM
bidder up .... for Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.81 +0.4% ...

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  3:59:24 PM
WEN earnings est +0.60, actual +0.60, guidance down

 
 
  Keene Little   10/21/20,  3:57:42 PM
One thing that's become more and more obvious in the past 2 weeks is an allocation shift from the blue chips to the higher beta stocks--techs and small caps. As has been observed by many, the 7000+ hedge fund managers know that the only way they can salvage this year (it's well known they're not having a good year) is to have a good 4th quarter and high beta stocks typically do better in rallies and EVERYONE knows we're going to rally into the end of the year. After all, that's what happens every year.

While we could certainly do that (rally into the end of the year), I have this sense the boat is tipping over and water's coming over the gunwale. I hope the fundies have their life vests on (stops in place). And of course if they suddenly start abandoning ship in the only life boat available, the life boat could sink as well. Could be fun for bears if that happens, but whatever happens I'm thinking we could have a very volatile final two months of the year.

Just some things to think about. I would recommend not betting huge in either direction and keep those stops in place. It's much easier to think rationally AFTER you've been stopped out instead of trying to rationalize why you should pull your stop. As for me, I don't care which direction we go, but I sure would love to see the return of volatility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:56:17 PM
Google (GOOG) $149.00 +6% ... into the close... most active options Nov. $150 call (8,877:6,899), Nov. $160 call (6,162:4,257), Nov. $165 call (5,181:2,902), Nov. $150 put (4,304:1,829).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:53:26 PM
Travelzoo (TZOO) $59.74 -2.21% ... defensive suddenly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:48:03 PM
Once again, the OEX appears to have been stopped by the 50% retracement off Tuesday's high.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  3:46:27 PM
Earnings after the close
This is only a fraction of the earnings for today.

KO est +0.47,
ACF est +0.39,
ACS est +0.71,
CLS est +0.08,
ELX est +0.10,
GNW est +0.54,
MCK est +0.24,
RHI est +0.21,
SFA est +0.36,
AMZN est +0.18,
BRCM est +0.34,
EPNY est -0.07,
FISV est +0.48,
FDRY est +0.12,
GILD est +0.21,
GOOG est +0.56,
HLIT est -0.03,
HYLW est +0.23,
NSIT est +0.29,
IDTI est +0.07,
KLAC est +0.57,
MENT est +0.07,
MCRL est +0.07,
MCHP est +0.29,
MSFT est +0.30,
PSFT est +0.14,
PLCM est +0.19,
RSAS est +0.14,
SIAL est +0.81,
TQNT est -0.04,
WEBX est +0.24,
XLNX est +0.24,
YELL est +1.34

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  3:42:37 PM
On the SPX 1-min chart I saw bearish MACD divergence with price as we printed the last two swing highs. That, and Keene's EW analysis on the Futures Monitor, were the reasons for going short @ 1108.63. Conservative traders can exit the short now for +2.5 but I am going to hold overnight again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:40:07 PM
Short of a catastrophe in the last forty minutes of trading, I don't think market bulls have to worry about a key reversal on the TRAN. It would have to drop almost 45 points in the last few minutes of trading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  3:38:14 PM
The whipsaw in the 30 min cycle has the daily cycle on bullish kisses from a higher price and oscillator low. This is very bullish action for QQQ, and a close at current levels should spell the end of the daily cycled downphase. The outlook is bullish above 36.22 on this basis, with higher support currently at 36.44-.48.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  3:30:56 PM
This is the second time in a week I've watched a short play that was up over +6 points come back and bite me. In hindsight I should have taken profits at the edge of the cliff (both times) but I really thought the range was broken and I could stick with a play for a big gain rather than this continuous scalping.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:28:49 PM
I came into today thinking that we might see a candle for today of a type indicative of indecision, and that's what we might get on the OEX's daily chart. It's too early to tell for sure, but so far, the candle is a high-wave doji, about as indicative of indecision as you can get.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:14:24 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:12:14 PM
Some thoughts on the TRAN's five-minute chart, if the TRAN should pull back: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  3:10:41 PM
Go short now... 1108.63, stop 1110.63

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  3:09:19 PM
Back...
Stopped out of short play @ 1107.50, -2

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:06:26 PM
The SOX has just hit the daily 100-ema at 409.53, with the SOX at 409.87, just pulling back from its high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:04:22 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:04:11 PM
The TRAN tests the day's high again, with bearish price/MACD divergence continuing on the five-minute chart. That doesn't predict that the TRAN will fall, but does suggest that we watch it for that possibility.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:01:48 PM
The OEX approaches the day's high, with a touch of the day's high negating that potential continuation-form H&S. The right shoulder is already far enough out of proportion that I think we can consider it negated.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  3:01:07 PM
Session highs for Naz, Russell2K and QQQ at 36.66, with all intraday cycles in gear to the upside. The last dip bottomed at 36.48, new higher support. 36.80 is fibonacci resistance, representing the 200% retracement of yesterday's range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:57:09 PM
Teradyne (TER) $15.95 +6.12% ... tacks on more gains after one of the worst forward looking conference calls I've heard/read in years.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:52:01 PM
Some thoughts on the OEX's potential H&S on the 15-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:46:37 PM
Shorter-dated 5-year Treasury ... begins to unravel with yield higher by 1.2 bp at 3.269%.

10-year ($TNX.X) unch at 3.991%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  2:46:11 PM
Not much of a pullback off the highs, and volume is declining. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are back in gear to the upside. 36.44 should now act as support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:41:09 PM
The TRAN hit a new high by two points, with bearish price/MACD divergence on the five-minute chart as it did so. It's at 3430.00 as I type, having pulled back a little, but not much. That pullback was enough that only a five-minute candle shadow was left above the earlier high. The TRAN moves fast when it decides to move, so we could be in zoom-higher-the-rest-of-the-day territory or downturn into double-top (five-minute chart) territory.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  2:39:56 PM
AMZN, XLNX, KLAC all positive ahead of their earnings tonight. MSFT flat and not taking part in the excitement.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  2:38:22 PM
QQQ stopped 2 cents short of the upper channel bands, printing a high of 36.57: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  2:36:46 PM
GOOG now up nearly +9 ahead of earnings tonight. They better hit the ball out of the park or this will be really ugly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:35:28 PM
The OEX just hit the ascending trendline off yesterday's low, testing it from the underside. This 531 level is also at a 38.2% retracement of the decline from Tuesday's high. Careful here, as so far, we're just getting a retest of the former support to see if it holds as resistance now. The OEX, too, forms a possible H&S, so bulls will want to see a push above the day's high to invalidate that while bears want to see a downturn into a right shoulder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:32:22 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,106 , QQQ $36.53 , TNX.X down 0.3 bp at 3.989%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:30:12 PM
The OEX is back to a doji for the day's trading. Nymex is closing: let's see what that brings.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  2:30:01 PM
The 30 min cycle downphase is now stalled, with QQQ breaking the prior high and running for 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 36.59.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:29:17 PM
VIX.X 14.88 +0.13% ... we could be headed for a third-consecutive week of VIX>X close 15.00.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  2:27:01 PM
Semiconductor stock LRCX is up 3% and breaking out over 2 1/2 month-old resistance at the $24.00 mark. Watch the simple 200-dma at $24.32 for a breakout.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:26:24 PM
The Dow did confirm its inverse H&S. The upside target is about 9,860 if I drew the neckline correctly, so the Dow is pausing now underneath the target.

That inverse H&S and the subsequent rise, however, may be forming a right shoulder for an regular H&S. A climb above 9903 would invalidate the formation. Battling H&S's and inverse H&S's: I hate seeing both on the charts as they can predict choppy trading conditions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:21:54 PM
The TRAN is pushing above the top of the ascending regression channel again. We should watch what happens when Nymex closes in a few minutes, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  2:20:15 PM
QQQ printing 46.40 here. While a retest of the session high is still compatible with a top in the 30 min and 60 min cycles, a move to the 36.50 level for longer than 5 minutes will stall the 30 min downphase and set us up for a renewed push higher. This would be very bullish given the higher intraday low above 36.10, and likely kick off preliminary daily cycle buy signals.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  2:16:49 PM
Interesting... a CNN articles reports that the recent National Retail Federation's 2004 holiday spending survey revealed that consumers will not be bullied by rising interest rates or rising gasoline prices.

The average consumer plans to spend about 4.5% more this year than last year bringing the (average) total holiday spending to $702.

Too bad... I already had my theme for December: Oil - the Grinch who Stole Christmas. *grin*

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  2:13:52 PM
QQQ is now testing 36.35. This would still qualify as a right shoulder on the intraday h&s pattern discussed earlier. A move above 36.40 will invalidate it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:13:44 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  2:11:54 PM
Dec. crude +.15 at 54.55 here. TNX -1.3 bps at 3.978%. That's a counterintuitive combination, and I'm thinking that the Fed's large injection of open market funds this AM could be a contributing factor.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:07:38 PM
Reader Question: I seem to recall you liking 'Head & Shoulder' patterns and I am noticing a potential inverse H & S pattern on the DOW in the last 90 mins - maybe it could potentially signal the end of this down trend on the DOW?

Response: Good eye, G.M. As G.M. also noted, this one is close to confirming, but remember that a rejection can occur at the neckline, too: Link

Actually, I don't know that I like these patterns all that well. Together with rising bearish wedges, I think they're the bane of my (technical analysis) existence.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  2:06:12 PM
CNBC saying UPS expects a strong fourth quarter.

From UPS' press release:

"For the fourth quarter, Davis said the company is expecting a solid holiday shipping season in the United States and stellar growth outside the U.S. UPS is projecting fourth quarter diluted earnings per share to increase over last year's adjusted $0.70 to a range of $0.83 to $0.87. Davis added UPS expects earnings per share in 2005 to grow between 13-to-17%."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:04:34 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  2:02:32 PM
Computer hard-drive maker Maxtor Corp (MXO) is down 31.4% to $3.18, a new two-year low, after reporting earnings last night that missed estimates by 2 cents. Management guided lower for the fourth quarter. Wall Street had been looking for a Q4 loss of 7 cents but MXO now expects a loss of 18 to 22 cents per share. Several days ago the stock gapped lower after its CFO resigned for "personal reasons".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:00:38 PM
Hartford (HIG) $54.35 -0.47% .... still having some trouble at the lower end of downward regression $55.38 and "zone of resistance" from $51.80-$55.39.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  2:00:32 PM
A massive 388 companies report earnings today and the after hours list is huge. I will have the major stocks broken out in the monitor in a few minutes but even just reporting the leaders will be a big list.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  1:59:08 PM
S&P Insurance (IUX.X) 273.57 -1.03% ... edging back below the "Spitzer lows" ....

Might we see some rotation away from uncertainty toward the stock/bond brokers?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  1:56:09 PM
Theere's a weak 30 minute cycle downphase in progress, but until the 60 min cycle gets decisively in gear to the downside the current chop should prevail. The last 30 min cycle upphase failed at a lower price and oscillator high, which should allow the faltering daily cycle downphase to live another day.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  1:55:46 PM
The Dow refuses to rebound and is beginning to press 9800 once again. This is going to be a pivotal level and the outlook for the bulls does not look good. The five biggest losers on the Dow are CAT, AIG, SBC, IBM and HON in that order. CAT is down -3.29 after more than doubling their earnings for the quarter.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:55:19 PM
PCAR is down 6.2% to $64.61 but up off its lows from $62 this morning. This morning the company reported earnings of $1.41 per share, beating estimates by 5 cents, with revenues rising more than 40% for the quarter over a year ago. If you look at the weekly chart for PCAR you can see that today's low was a bounce from the previous trendline of higher highs (resistance) dating back for over a year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  1:53:51 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 403.11 +2.47% .... presses to session high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  1:53:08 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,100.00 , QQQ $36.24 ... TNX.X down 1.1 bp at 3.980%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  1:52:58 PM
As I thought it might, the OEX did challenge that one-minute Keltner line that had stopped it earlier. It also bumped above it again. Turning to the usually more reliable seven-minute chart, I see support trying to gather from 527.60-527.89, but not looking entirely firm just yet.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:51:24 PM
Software maker Citrix Systems (CTXS) is up 12.8% to $23.34 after reporting earnings last night that beat estimates by 4 cents a share. The company guided higher for the fourth quarter and at least three brokers have reiterated their positive ratings on the stock.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:49:49 PM
Flu-mist producer MedImmune (MEDI) is down 5.4% and falling back into its multi-month trading range between $22 and $26 after reporting earnings today that were only in-line with estimates.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  1:49:46 PM
I have to leave for an appointment... back in an hour or so.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  1:48:52 PM
Some thoughts about the TRAN with respect to its daily chart and the rising regression channel: Link Market bulls do not want to see the TRAN close in negative territory today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  1:47:30 PM
Short @ 1105.50, stop 1107.50
Conservative traders can take another +4 right now if they wish. The hard selloff following the release of the bullish Philly Fed numbers has me thinking this will resolve to the downside, possibly for a large gain, so I'm going to leave the stop @ 1107.50 and see if we can ride this one for a big gain.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:47:13 PM
Timberland Co (TBL) is up 4.8% and breakout over its simple 100-dma, simple 200-dma and the $60.00 mark on strong volume after reporting earnings today that beat estimates by 16 cents per share.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  1:45:53 PM
Speech by Fed Governor Bernanke on oil and the economy: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  1:45:35 PM
Speech by Governor Bies on enterprise perspectives in financial institution supervision: Link

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:38:29 PM
Appliance-maker Whirlpool (WHR) is still sinking after its recent earnings. The stock is down another 1.78% to $56.08. JPM downgraded WHR to "neutral" this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  1:37:50 PM
In my 13:03 post, I noted that the OEX looked due for a bounce, perhaps up to nearest resistance at 529.45 or perhaps even above that to next resistance. The OEX did bounce but never even made it to 529.45, stopped at 529.07. It's a one-minute Keltner line that's stopping advances now, and that line is now at 528.39. If I had to guess, however, I'd think that it's about to be challenged again.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  1:36:46 PM
SPX is coming back up to retest the broken neckline of the SPX daily H&S pattern @ 1101.50. A rejection at the neckline "would" have to be considered bearish and another dip below 1100 "could" see acceleration to the downside. A drop below Dow 9800 "should" seal the deal. There you go... "woulda, coulda, shoulda".

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:35:29 PM
ExpressJet Holdings (XJT) is doing well today with a 10.4% rally to $10.69 after reporting earnings and beating analysts' expectations by 1 cent.

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:33:54 PM
Jeff mentioned the rally in Alcatel (ALA) earlier. The stock has extended its gains now up 10.4% to $14.14. At least one broker has now upgraded the stock to an out perform. Earnings are expected on Oct. 28th.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  1:31:43 PM
QQQ is back above the neckline. Volume just wasn't there on the break.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  1:31:23 PM
MERQ: For the reader asked where I saw next resistance . . . right at today's high! Link

 
 
  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:31:12 PM
Sybase Inc (SY) is up a strong 15% to $16.32 today after reporting earnings that beat estimates by 9 cents with stronger revenues.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  1:24:58 PM
There's YM with a 97 handle, with a session low of 9793.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  1:24:38 PM
Very light volume on this QQQ dip so far. The price is there, but it could easily whip back up because of the light volume. We'll see if the 'bots follow along here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  1:23:30 PM
Reader Question Regarding MERQ: Regard stock... MERQ 39.28 + .97 (2.51%), yesterday 10/20/04 after hours. Earnings release was positive stock moved up to 40.70 this morning, despite stock price increase, option RQB KH Nov.40 calls declined from yesterdays close from 1.75 to present as we write to 1.25 - .50 cents, volume 439 contracts.

Is it not for the market maker at CBOE to keep an orderly market, understand that volatility comes into play prior to earnings release but not to this extreme, this would definitely shy option buyers to purchase future options or be buyers again.

Response: First, I apologize for not answering this email sooner. I usually answer as soon as I receive an email, but did not hear the ding that let me know I had email waiting.

Unfortunately volatility does come into play to that extreme prior to earnings, which is one reason that we at OIN recommend that options not be held over an earnings announcement. That volatility collapses the next day, and options prices do, too, especially if the stock is climbing. Volatility and its effect on calls is a strange matter. In Options as a Strategic Investment, McMillan writes of the market collapse in the late 80's, when markets plunged so quickly one day that even some calls were profitable despite the fall because of the inflated volatility. Unfortunately, it works the opposite direction, too. I don't claim to be an expert in the Greeks and how they work and I don't regularly employ calculations involving my guesses on implied volatility as compared to historical norms, but it's a good idea to have a basic understanding of how it works. Obviously, this reader's comment about volatility shows that this reader does have that understanding. Unfortunately, a stronger object lesson is being delivered today by MERQ's action. Been there, done that. All of us have.

This reader also requested information on where I see next resistance. I'll look at that and get back with a chart.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  1:21:19 PM
Linda nice catch per your 13:10 post and the 200ema... more reason to watch for a bounce and also more reason for bulls to spook if 1100 is broken to the downside.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  1:18:12 PM
SOX is still above 400 but there is a potential H&S formation developing and we could be forming the right shoulder right now. The neckline is about 375 and if violated the downside target would be SOX 340. I seem to remember a former reader (Marc Eckelberry) who used to email me saying we would see SOX 343 before it was all over. It's very tempting to buy some SMH puts right here, or just go short SMH. I'll put a benchmark on the SOX and SMH so we can watch.

Benchmarking... SOX = 402.24, SMH = 31.50

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  1:15:12 PM
A move higher to fail at 36.35 would set up a lovely intraday head and shoulders pattern above a neckline of 36.18, and would represent a failure at declining short cycle resistance within the flattened 30 min cycle channel, giving us a 25 cent downside projection to 35.93 if it plays out that way. Look for a burst of volume on a break below 36.18 if it's to play out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  1:10:58 PM
Mark, the SPX's 200-ema is also at 1100.96. While not as closely watched as the 200-sma, I can spot a number of times advances or declines stopped dead on that average since the spring.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  1:07:24 PM
Caterpillar (CAT) $77.16 -4% .... probing its flat 200-day SMA, 50-day rising at $76.08.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  1:06:18 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  1:04:54 PM
Short @ 1105.50, raise stop to 1107.50

We are right at the neckline (1101.50) of a H&S pattern on the SPX daily chart that has a downside target of 1060 if confirmed so I want to give this short plenty of room. It would be nice to snag a big gain for a change, instead of scalping 2 and 3 points here and there but we have to play the hand we are dealt and lately scalping has been the only game in town and better than nothing. If we get below 1100 I'll tighten up the stop a bit but look for SPX to possibly firm up or even bounce at the 1101.50 area, especially with round number support just below @ 1100... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  1:03:41 PM
The OEX is at Keltner support on the seven-minute chart, perhaps due for a bounce, with nearest Keltner resistance at 529.45 and next near 530.30-530.90. If the OEX keels over here, next Keltner support is near yesterday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  12:55:02 PM
Note that yesterday's OEX low was 526.62 and have profit protecting plans in place if that level is approached. The five- and seven-minute Keltner charts suggest that it will be approached, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the OEX chop around between 528-532 the rest of the day, ending up with a candle indicative of hesitation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  12:54:38 PM
QQQ is still holding the 36.18-.22 level while YM makes new lows at 9805 and GE at 33.01. QQQ is now below the 7200-tick SMA and the 30 min cycle upphase is stalled.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:53:58 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  12:45:05 PM
The YM futures came awfully close to the 9800 level there, though I've been noting support at the 9795 level. The battle between the Dow and the Naz continues, with QQQ and NQ still well within positive territory for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  12:43:53 PM
The TRAN is still above 3400, at 3421.01 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  12:43:20 PM
I had hoped to see a higher OEX bounce, up to 533.50-534, but as my 2:21 post noted, I was always afraid that 532 might be the rollover point. The OEX is now below the trendline off yesterday's low and also below the confirmation level of the double-top formation. Some of you may have entered a bearish position automatically on a touch of 532 or the 50% retracement of the decline from Tuesday's high; some who wanted in a bearish position may have waited for a break of that ascending trendline off yesterday's low. All who may have entered bearish positions today need to have profit-protecting plans in place on a test of yesterday's low, of course, and be aware of the possibility of being whipsawed. This is especially true since the SOX tries valiantly to hold onto 400, at 400.87 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  12:39:57 PM
Back just in time to catch the dive back below 36.33 and the retest of 36.18. The 30 min cycle is only flattening now, with support at 36.08 currently. 10 minutes' worth of prints at or below the current 36.21 level should be enough to start the overdue 30 min cycle downphase.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  12:39:04 PM
SPX is now back above 1102 so the last 5 minutes could be considered and "underthrow" of the 1102 support area, BUT... 1102 really needs to hold or it will be a quick trip to 1100. LOL... again I can't type fast enough to keep up with the market. 1102 is history.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:39:02 PM
Sell Program Premium .... about 8 minutes ago )12:31:16). Came at approx. SPX 1,103.25

SPX 1,101 here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  12:35:41 PM
Short @ 1105.50, lower stop to 1105.50

We have now broken through multiple support levels like they weren't even there. Next test is SPX 1100, Dow 9800... SOX just now dropped below 400 briefly before popping back above, definitely the strong link in the chain.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  12:33:50 PM
The Dow creeps ever closer to yesterday's low, and is at 9932 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  12:25:33 PM
The ascending trendline off yesterday's OEX low crosses at about 529.84 if I've placed my cursor correctly. That's very near the 529.86 confirmation level for the OEX's double-top formation, with that having been the 9/28 intraday low. Anyone deciding whether to enter a new position--any new position, whether bullish or bearish--needs to be prepared for some whipsaws as markets try to sort out final direction. That sorting may not be finished today, either. Note that the SOX remains above 400, at 401.11 as I type, but perhaps headed down for a retest of 400.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:20:11 PM
Caterpillar (CAT) $77.07 -4.13% ... estends losses after trading up in pre-market.

Executive said "the strongest recovery we've ever seen across the broad spectrum of markets we serve," but add, "higher material costs and inefficiencies related to supply-chain bottlenecks," which limited margings, could become an issue next year when sales growth is expected to cool to 10%.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  12:19:46 PM
We just took out the last swing lows in the 1105 area... the short play is looking very good at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  12:15:30 PM
Is the OEX going to make another attempt on 532? Prices rise, but five-minute MACD doesn't, yet, making the rise untrustworthy as yet. And the OEX retreated again as I typed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:15:16 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  12:09:30 PM
I hope that swift selloff wasn't an orchestrated shakeout (aimed at bulls)... if so it got me.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  12:06:33 PM
Stopped out of long play @ 1105.50, -1
Now short @ 1105.50, stop 1107.50
This may be the downside break that will stick.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  12:04:36 PM
Long @ 1106.50, stop 1105.50
Go short immediately if stopped out
They sold that Philly Fed spike hard and SPX has printed a tweezer top.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  12:01:37 PM
Stopped out of short play @ 1106.50, +1
Now long @ 1106.50, stop 1105.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:01:34 PM
Buy program premium .... SPX 1,107.16, QQQ $36.39 .... TNX.X -1 bp at 3.981%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  12:01:26 PM
Here's part of my post from 9:05, with my pre-market impression of what might happen, usually more reliable than my in-the-heat-of-the-fire impressions: I wouldn't be surprised if . . . markets didn't produce some kind of candle indicative of indecision, but I'm hoping for a climb, this morning at least. So far, we're getting the candle indicative of indecision, at least on the part on the OEX, but also on other indices. The OEX has climbed, too, but minimally. It still maintains the ascending trendline off yesterday's low, so if this is a bear-flag climb, the OEX hasn't yet broken down out of the bear flag. Before we draw too many bearish or bullish conclusions from today's action, I'd like to see how the OEX behaves on this current test of 532. Bears want to see a rollover from a lower five-minute high, complete with bearish divergence, and then a break of that trendline. Bulls want to see a climb to a new high, and a sustained value above the 50% retracement of the most recent decline, with that level near 532.37.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  11:56:37 AM
11:53 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:55:05 AM
Stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  11:54:58 AM
Despite SOX gains, breaking that index out of its diamond pattern to the upside, the Nasdaq hasn't broken out of an analogous pattern. Perhaps the GHA, the GSTI Hardware Index, is at least partly responsible. Since printing a shooting star potential reversal signal Tuesday, this index has produced other candles indicative of hesitation, if not of reversal. Yesterday's candle was a doji, for example, another potential reversal signal. Today's, so far, is a small-bodied candle with both upper and lower shadows.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:53:11 AM
Short @ 1107.50, lower stop to 1106.50
Go long immediately if stopped out
CCI just printed a very oversold -360 on a relatively small drop, TRIN is neutral and SOX and SPX are above former resistance levels, presumably now support... not exactly a recipe for disaster.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:46:30 AM
On the verge of a (short-term) break. Look at the b-bands on this 1-min chart. They don't get much tighter than this before something happens... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  11:43:27 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 2.4 bp at 3.967. Bond traders don't seem too convinced with SPX up 3 points at 1,106.85.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:40:32 AM
B-bands are getting pinched very tight. We are either going to break down or shoot higher very soon. SPX is sitting very close to the middle b-band.
Benchmarking... SPX = 1106.97

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  11:39:18 AM
Some things I'm watching on the OEX's 60-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:30:46 AM
Short @ 1107.50, lower stop to 1107.50
Go long immediately if stopped out
I'm losing confidence in this short as each minute passes without a downside break

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  11:24:52 AM
I'm back. The OEX has just touched the 50% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's high, and has retreated below it. It also just hit the central channel line on the 15-minute chart, with that line at 532.38. There's been no breakdown yet, of course, but neither can we label the OEX's action as unqualifiedly bullish yet, either. However, the TRAN has broken out above 3400 and the SOX above 400, actions that favor the bulls.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:15:26 AM
Stopped out of long play @ 1107.50, +4
Now short @ 1107.50, stop 1108.50

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:13:36 AM
Long @ 1103.50, raise stop to 1107.50
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  11:11:39 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  11:10:24 AM
I need to leave for an appointment and will be back after lunch. 30 min channel resistnance is at 36.52, and with the 30 min cycle overbought and beginning to trend, that level should provide stiff resistance. 36.33 and 36.22 should now act as support on any pullback- below 36.22, this upside move should prove to be a 30 min cycle throwover.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:06:18 AM
Conservative traders can take +4 right now if they like. Personally I would like to ride this long from 1103.50 for a couple of days if possible so for now I'm leaving the stop @ 1103.50. It would really help bulls if the Dow could crack the 9900 level convincingly and should trigger another round of short-covering.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  11:03:33 AM
Minimal pullback so far from that flagpole rally. The longer we stay up here the better (for bulls).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  11:03:31 AM
Caught on the phone. Watch the ascending trendline off yesterday's OEX low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  11:03:04 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  11:02:42 AM
The OEX's climb off yesterday's low is now resolving itself into a run-of-the-mill rising regression channel. On the 60-minute chart, this could be a potential bear flag, like the one seen from 10/14-10/19. If so, though, it needs to break down before retracing much higher than 532.38, with that being the approximate 50% retracement of the fall off the 10/19 high. The 61.8% retracement is at 533.74.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:59:43 AM
Bearish day trade stop alert .... JNJ $57.60

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:59:08 AM
Dow % losers ... CAT -1.28%, HON -1.15%, SBC -2.15%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:58:33 AM
Dow % gainers .... AA +1.18%, BA +1.51%, DD +1.11%, HD +1.03%, INTC +1.3%, JPM +1.47%, UTX +1.04% ....

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:58:05 AM
Focus now swithces to Dow 9900... shorts watch out if it gives way to the upside

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:56:43 AM
Long @ 1103.50, stop 1103.50
Cancel the short entry for now

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:55:37 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) .... -1 bp at 3.981% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:54:58 AM
Buy program premium .... SPX 1,107, QQQ $36.37

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:54:56 AM
TRIN has plunged, the Dow just went green and we are above SPX 1105... let the short squeeze begin.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:54:56 AM
The OEX is in danger of forming a miniature H&S on its three-minute chart. It's difficult to determine an exact neckline, but it is perhaps near 529.20. A move to a new daily high negates the potential formation, of course (happening as I type). This formation may actually be part of a larger, two-right-shouldered H&S formation on the five-minute chart. If you're bullish, you can also make out a potential inverse H&S on that same chart, although the left shoulder of that one is far out of proportion to the head, to it may not be valid. What does all this say? Whenever I see battling H&S and inverse H&S's, I see a market that hasn't yet made up its mind which way it's going to go.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:54:34 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 401.00 +1.98% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:54:08 AM
Session high for NQ futures and QQQ just now at 36.34. 36.35 is the top of this confluence, above which there's 60 min channel resistance at 36.40 and 30 min resistance at 36.52. Given that the 60 min channel continues to dominate to the upside, I'd be dubious of any pullback above 36.18 and if 36.35 gets cleared, bulls should have a good short at a test of 30 min channel resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:51:25 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:50:55 AM
TRIN is rising right along with price. Earlier this morning TRIN crashed to .56 (right along with price)... goofy (and unsettling)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:49:27 AM
A moment of silence for EBAY shorts, getting squeezed on this AM's gap up and test of 98. Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:48:39 AM
Long @ 1103.50, raise stop to 1103.50
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:46:59 AM
JNJ $57.40 -0.17% .....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:46:36 AM
A 3rd failure at 36.33 for QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:46:19 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) .... opening tick came lower, right at DAILY S2, then got slight pop to DAILY Pivot (35.98). Middle of morning range here, down 1.9 bp at 35.72 (3.572%) and DAILY S1.

Major indices mixed...

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:44:59 AM
Stopped out of short play @ 1103.50, -1
Now long @ 1103.50, stop 1102.50

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:44:41 AM
SOX needs to climb above 400.48 on this push to avoid printing a lower high on the three-minute chart.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:43:45 AM
Go long with a touch of 1103.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:41:52 AM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.42 +3.31% .... gains after SBC said it awarded Alcatel (ALA) $13.67 +6.79% a 5-year, $1.7 billiion contract for network equipment and video system integration services for Project Lightspeed.

JDSU in supplier to ALA.

Broker comment is that of surprise of such a hefty long-term contract.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:41:12 AM
We need to get below the area of congestion @ SPX 1102 to put some juice into the short play. LOD is 1101.84

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:40:47 AM
On a Keltner chart basis, the OEX is trying to balance at the Keltner lines at 530.06 and 530.20. If it can, it will likely head up to test resistance again just above 531. For now, resistance looks stronger than support, however. Unless chart characteristics change, it looks more likely that the OEX will turn lower than that it will move much past 531.75.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:37:43 AM
Mercury Interactive (MERQ) ... reported quarterly EPS of $0.27, which was 3-cents better than consnensus. Seeing that Jefferies downgraded the stock at $38.31 saying they don't believe company can grow as fast in 2005 as they have in recent years (25-30%).

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:36:31 AM
Stopped out of long play @ 1102.50, +1
Now short @ 1102.50, stop 1103.50

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:36:23 AM
One of those 2.5M QQQ share buy programs just fired up above 36.22, and a wavelet bounce is now underway. Look for resistance at 36.33. At this point, I'm expect a break of either 36.35 or 36.10 to be directional. I'm guessing that the break will be to the downside, but because of the daily cycle's ambiguity here, an upside break is very possible.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:34:51 AM
Long @ 1101.50, raise stop to 1102.50
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:33:59 AM
Mercury Interactive (MERQ) $39.85 +3.86% ... high of the day, pretty good volume early

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:27:00 AM
Gold is 40 cents in the green at 425.30, silver down .056 at 7.30, with HUI and XAU up .92% and .32% respectively. QQQ is once again testing 36.18, with the short cycle oscillators trying to rollover. The 30 min and short cycle oscillators appear to be fighting the 60 min cycle for control of the daily cycle, which is currently stalled and looking for direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:23:17 AM
On the OEX, the ascending trendline off yesterday's low crosses at about 529. Bearish divergence showed up on that last test of the 532 zone on the five-minute chart, but so far, the OEX maintains that ascending trendline. It's not too far from a test of that trendline, also known historical support. The confirmation of the double-top is at 529.86, with the OEX already below that. Those who might have entered a bearish play on a rollover beneath 532 again should be aware of bounce potential at that trendline.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:18:49 AM
stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:18:21 AM
The TRAN hit a high of 3399.62 before retreating. It's now at 3393.21 as I type, still above the early October high and the breakout of yesterday's rising wedge.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  10:17:03 AM
Long @ 1101.50, stop 1101.50
Go short immediately if stopped out

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:14:34 AM
Day trade adjust bearish stop/target alert on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to $57.60.

Will also adjust target up to DAILY S1 of $56.72 from prior target of $56.68.

Daily pivot levels ... $55.94, $56.72, Piv=$57.11 , $57.89, $58.28.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:13:40 AM
The 30 minute cycle is growing more overbought under the influence of the still-rising 60 min cycle oscillators. Channel resistance has advanced to 36.40, but obviously QQQ needs to get above 36.24 and 36.33-.35 first. Below 36.10, I'd expect to see the 30 min cycle roll over and the 60 min oscillators stall.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:12:27 AM
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) $57.44 -0.10% .... did just tick above my day trader's stop of $57.55, but with INDU set to test 9,830, will hang in here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:09:55 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:08:41 AM
The TRAN's climb on the five-minute chart looked like a bearish rising wedge, but as the TRAN often does, it broke out of that wedge to the upside. It balanced on the top trendline for a while and then took off again. It's at 3395.70 as I type, just under the high of the day, just under the test of 3400.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:06:59 AM
Careful, semi bulls and bears both. The SOX has pulled minimally back from its test of 400.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/21/20,  10:05:13 AM
Bullish Divergence on the 60 minute SPX chart? Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:03:44 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:03:38 AM
QQQ sitting on 36.18-.22 support again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:01:45 AM
More ticker headlines:

10:00am U.S. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN 4 STRAIGHT MONTHS

10:00am US LEADING INDICATORS SIGNAL '05 SLOWDOWN - CONF BOARD

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:01:20 AM
Analog Devices (ADI) $38.97 +1.82% .... earnings call... company characterizes current environment as a temporary inventory correction, not market weakness.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:00:36 AM
Headline:

10:00am U.S. SEPT. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN 0.1 PCT

10:00am 5 OUT OF 10 U.S. LEADING INDICATORS FALL IN SEPT.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  10:00:04 AM
The Fed has just added a hefty 8.5B overnight repo, for a 6.25B net add for the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  9:59:30 AM
LEI data due now.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  9:58:48 AM
CAT, HON, PG and IBM are the leading losers for the Dow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  9:58:15 AM
Nymex Dec. crude is +.375 to 54.775 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  9:57:30 AM
QQQ has retested the session high but has not touched 36.35. Volume is running high at just under 1M shares per hundred ticks, and the 36.33-.35 line is set up as critical resistance. Given the overbought intraday cycles, bulls have their work cut out for them.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:57:07 AM
The TRAN touches the top of its ascending regression channel on its daily chart, a channel that's been in place since March. It's just above the Tuesday's high, just below 3400, at 3390.68. Watch for a punch through 3400 (that lasts) or a rollover.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  9:56:25 AM
SOX over 400... now if we can just get the Dow over 9900.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:55:32 AM
The Dow is negative.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:53:57 AM
Neither the Nasdaq nor the Russell 2000 has broken out of their analogous diamond patterns at the top of their climbs. The SOX may be leading, as it sometimes does, but the Russell 2000 has so far nor been able to move far above its 200-sma.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  9:52:44 AM
SOX making a run @ 400... currently printing 399.85 after HOD of 399.98

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:52:14 AM
Swing trade sell put alert .... selling 3 Paychex Nov. $30 puts (PQX-WF) at the bid of $0.45.

Selling against the currently long 3 Dec. $30 puts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:51:36 AM
The SOX is breaking out of the diamond pattern on its daily chart to the upside. That needs to be confirmed by a move above 400. Sure don't like the amateur-hour developments, however. The SOX is at 399.54 as I type. If considering a long SOX-related entry, be particularly careful near 512.22, the 100-sma and just below the 10/4 high. If the SOX should pierce 400, as it appears to be about to do, and then quickly reverses back into that diamond, be aware of the possibility of a false breakout.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:50:05 AM
Caterpillar (CAT) $79.10 -1.59% ... was higher pre-market, but found selling from yesterday's close right at the open.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  9:48:51 AM
The Fed has 12.25B expiring today, and has just announced a 10B 14-day repo. The open market desk should announce the short term repos within the next 10 minutes- 2.25B is left unaccounted for.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:48:12 AM
VIX.X 14.95 +0.67% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows ... 14.32, 14.58, Piv= 15.05 , 15.31, 15.78

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/21/20,  9:45:02 AM
Long @ 1101.50, stop 1101.50, held overnight
Leave the stop @ 1101.50 until we get through this opening volatility

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:44:37 AM
The OEX's 7-minute Keltner chart shows the index pulling back from significant resistance from 530.89-531.64, but trying to find support on the Keltner line currently at 530.17. If it could continue to find support at that Keltner level, it's going to keep challenging that resistance, but it looks as if the OEX might be more likely to retreat on the first retracement of the day, due to begin any moment, than to hold near this level. It may first retest that resistance before pulling back. This one is a judgment call, however.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/21/20,  9:39:48 AM
The Investor's Intelligence weekly bullish reading rising to levels where market had previously topped.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  9:39:20 AM
Ah oui... le gap n crap... 36.18-.22 is the key divide above which a daily close will risk printing a new daily cycle upphase for QQQ. This pivot area lines up with an overbought 30 min and short cycle upphase, and so we'll want to see a move below 36.10 to target 36 support, below which a new 30 min cycle downphase will be in progress. Above 36.35, we'll have a rare 30 min cycle trending move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:38:28 AM
The OEX is turning back again from the 38.2% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's high, with that retracement at just over 531, but trying to steady just above 530. I really don't want to see a rollover just yet, as entries during amateur hour have had spotty results lately.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:32:01 AM
The SOX gaps higher, in a breakaway gap out of the bull flag it was building yesterday into the close. Breakaway gaps, those that are gaps that break out of formations such as this one, often aren't filled, so if this one is, maybe something else is going on.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:31:06 AM
The OEX opens near yesterday's close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  9:21:52 AM
Gold has dunked into negative territory, but bounced from a higher low of 422.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  9:12:40 AM
QQQ is holding above yesterday's high. 36.18-.22 is now support. The daily cycle downphase is stalled for QQQ and on the NQ futures, resting on a bullish kiss. Bears want to see price get back below 36.18 in a hurry.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/21/20,  9:06:05 AM
WATCH 1100 on the SPX. Wednesday's Bullish Hammer candle needs to be confirmed today as a bullish reversal or not. Link A few other charts I follow are on the candleglance link. With the elections 2 weeks away and oil over $50 for the last 3 weeks, I still believe there is one more leg down before the elections, then a post election rally into year end. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:05:15 AM
With futures higher as I type, I'm hoping to see a bounce today, but a bounce that will hopefully set up a rollover bearish entry. However, we have beautiful bearish/bullish benchmarks in many indices, and I'll be watching those for signs that this bias is wrong, at least on the short-term. In addition to watching the OEX today, I'll be watching the TRAN to see whether the 3390 zone continues to provide resistance or if the index can zoom above 3400. I'll be watching the DOW with relationship to the 9950-10,000 levels, if the Dow bounces. I'll be watching the SPX with relationship to 1100-1104, to see whether there's a punch above resistance or a rollover beneath 1100. In addition, I'll be watching those diamonds building at the top of the SOX, Nasdaq and Russell 2000's recent climbs to see whether there's a breakout or breakdown. I wouldn't be surprised if we got none of that today and if, instead, markets didn't produce some kind of candle indicative of indecision, but I'm hoping for a climb, this morning at least.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  8:41:38 AM
Equities are rising as gold and bonds retreat. QQQ is now +.225 at 36.295.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  8:32:02 AM
Equities are modestly higher on the news, while gold, bonds and crude oil are almost unchanged.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  8:31:15 AM
Headlines:

8:29am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 25,000 TO 329,000

8:30am U.S. 4-WK AVERAGE INITIAL CLAIMS OFF 5,500 TO 348,250

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL 8,000 TO 2.8 MILLION

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 6-WEEK LOW

8:30am HOLIDAY MAY BE FACTOR IN DROP IN CLAIMS: LABOR DEPT

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/21/20,  7:56:51 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1100.75, NQ 1455, YM 9856 and QQQ +.04 at 36.11. Gold is up 1.80 at 426.70, silver +.041 at 7.39, ZN bond futures +.2 at 113.828, and Dec. crude up .4 to 54.80.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 345K, followed by leading indicators at 10, est. -.1% and at noon, the Philly Fed, est. 18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  7:01:45 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei closed at a three-week low on concerns that the yen's strength and slowing demand in some markets might hurt its exporters. Other Asian markets turned in mixed performance. European markets opened strongly, with techs and basic materials leading the gains, but dove from opening levels, troubled by rising crude and a higher euro against the dollar. As of 6:43 EST, gold was up $1.70 and crude, $0.40. Although our futures currently trade not too far below yesterday's closing levels, they've undergone some gyrations overnight, climbing and then dipping just before the European markets opened, climbing again, and then dropping back toward yesterday's closing levels. We were also beginning to get earnings reports trickling in, too. More details about Asian and European markets can be found in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei tested the flat-line level twice during the morning session, but then fell throughout the rest of the day, closing 36 points off its low of the day on last-minute short covering. The Nikkei closed down 92.95 points or 0.85%, at 10,789.23, at a new three-week low. The Ministry of Finance released trade surplus figures for September, showing that exports increased 12.5% from the year-ago level and the surplus widened 12.7% to 1.238 trillion yen. That was below expectations for a rise to 1.42 trillion yen. Rising crude costs were blamed, since that rise increased the cost of imports. The increasing exports component reassured investors in the first hour of trading. Victor also did its part by announcing that U.S. demand for its audio-visual products was strong enough that back orders were piling up, but neither development was enough to prop up markets the rest of the day.

The dollar's weakness against the yen causes difficulties for exporters. Typhoon Tokage, now downgraded to a low-pressure front, struck Japan's main islands, perhaps killing as many as 57 according to early reports. Another typhoon may also threaten Japan. In addition, a Wall Street Journal focused attention on a slowdown in auto sales in China, resurrecting fears from earlier this week that demand in one of Japan's biggest export markets may be slacking.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.15%, but South Korea's Kospi lost 0.96%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.68%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.12%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 1.51%.

Currently, European bourses turn in mixed performances this morning with the ones commonly watched on this page all in negative territory. At the European open, commentators noted that all markets and sectors traded in positive territory, but those gains were quickly erased. Best-performing sectors at the open included basic materials and technology, with SAP beating expectations and Alcatel announcing that it had won a $1.7 billion order from SBC Communications. Novartis was also a strong performer in early trading, also beating expectations. Worst-performing sectors at the open were those that didn't gain as much as others, but European bourses began diving soon after the open, with the FTSE 100 soon falling into negative territory and others following.

Eurozone economic ministers reassured investors that the euro's climb against the dollar wouldn't disrupt economic recovery. They reasoned that the rise in the euro would help offset the higher commodity costs. However, a new relative high in the euro reached just after European markets opened may have been at least partly responsible for the dip in bourses. Perhaps investors weren't so reassured after all about the offsetting effect of a higher euro against higher crude costs as crude climbed in the overnight market.

As of 6:43 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 16.30 points or 0.35%, to 4,600.10. The CAC 40 had declined 1.30 points or 0.04%, to trade at 3,664.38. The DAX had declined 1.28 points or 0.03%, to trade at 3,911.12.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:21:28 AM
Gemstar-TV Guide (GMST) $5.47 Link .... KPMG will pay $10 million in a record settlement with the SEC, after the SEC had charged the auditor for GMST alleging that GMST had overstated its revenue by $250 million from 1992-2002.

The settlement proceeds will be paid to GMST shareholders. In June, GMST settled with the SEC and also agreed to pay $10 million.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:21:19 AM
Question: ... What does it mean when you post "sell program premium".

Here are a couple of articles I wrote, where other traders have asked the same question. These are found in the "Ask the Analyst" section, under Education of the OptionInvestor.com web page.

Read this one first to understand what can generate a buy or sell program premium......

Link

Now... each morning, in the 09:00 Update, I post HL Camp & Company's buy/sell program premium levels for that day of trade.

Please note, the I (Jeff Bailey) don't ALWAYS update traders in the Market Monitor that a buy/sell program premium was generated. However, when I feel we're at a rather significant level of potential support/resistance, I do tend to keep a closer eye on what institutional computers are doing.

Then, we start tying buy/sell program premiums in with the pivot matrix levels.

Link

As I review the alerts I gave in today's Market Monitor I come up with...

10:31 Sell SPX 1,096.73 (just below DAILY S1, WEEKLY S1, MONTHLY S1 correlations)

02:34 Sell SPX 1,099.61 (just above DAILY S1, WEEKLY S1, MONTHLY S1 correlations)

04:02 Sell SPY $110.72 (remember, futures are still trading, SPY still trading, but cash-SPX.X is closed)

I missed/did not post sell program premiums between

10:18-10:20 AM EDT ... 1,099.48

11:32-11:34 AM EDT ... 1,099.05

12:04-12:06 PM EDT ... 1,098.97

01:36-01:38 PM EDT ... 1,101.74

02:00-02:02 PM EDT ... 1,100.01

I received zero buy program premiums today.

Hope this helps some. As you may be able to tell, this is something a day trader will most likely use. However, I'm also noting there seems to be a lot of institutional interest from 1,096.73-1,101.74.

Jeff Bailey

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:21:03 AM
The OEX climbs in a potential bear flag off yesterday's low, up toward possible 532 resistance. Here's another reason to watch 532: Link Wednesday's strong rebound produced a bullish hammer on the OEX's daily chart and the potential reversal signal must be honored. Yet the rebound did not turn MACD higher again and brought the OEX only up to the bottom of the bear flag that had been formed previous to today's breakdown. Under these conditions and because some charts suggest that 523-524 may be tested, I'm looking for another bounce-and-rollover entry from anywhere beneath 535, but perhaps as low as 532. Link Those hoping for a bounce, either because they're bullish or want a rollover bearish entry, will want to see the OEX open at or above Wednesday's close levels and climb from there. A gap lower would undo some of the bullishness of the hammer.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/21/20,  2:20:51 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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