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  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  7:07:52 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

e-mini NASDAQ futures (nq04z) updated bar chart with fitted retracement at this Link

Oh my! Here's the December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) chart. Note October 6th close. Note NDX.X or e-min futures settlement. Link

Analysis .... Oil is to $52 as NDX.X is to 1,480.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  5:14:15 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/27/20,  5:06:24 PM
Alert - Yasser Arafat has collapsed and is unconscious. No further news but the report suggests it could be serious. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  4:13:21 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity .....

Day trade short (carry overnight) in Bema Gold (BGO) at $3.05, stop $3.12, target $2.91.

Swing trade added 2 more SMH Jan. $32.50 Calls (SMH-AZ) for $1.70 each, or $340.00. Now long 6 contracts with average cost of $1,068.00.

Day trade long F5 Networks (FFIV) at $39.95, closed out at $40.47 prior to the close. ($0.52, or +1.3%).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  4:02:12 PM
Buy program premium ... DIA $100.23, SPY $113.05, QQQ $36.78.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  4:00:00 PM
Not even the IUX erased its breakout signal going into the close today. The TRAN held on just above its H&S neckline on its five-minute chart. The OEX is likely to hold into its 200-ema, or at least near it. The SOX may hold above its 100-ema, just below the 10/4 high of 413.13. Each of these looks extended on a five-minute Keltner chart basis, but none has yet erased the Keltner breakouts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:58:13 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $40.20 +1.95% ... strong to the close.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  3:51:27 PM
So... does anyone think the post-election rally is getting an early start? Is money moving in now to avoid next week's rush and beat the crowd?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:51:22 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert for F5 Networks (FFIV) $40.47 here at the bid.

5-mrt BLUE #4 ($40.60) might be resistance to the close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:50:06 PM
Here's where the TRAN is with respect to that H&S on top of its steep climb: Link Will we be left in suspense until tomorrow's open?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:47:47 PM
Bearish day trade carry over alert ... will carry over the Bema Gold (BGO) $3.05 +0.32% short overnight.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.47 +0.3% ... looks to close at its highs of the session, and should we see a gap lower continuation in oil, I think it worth holding BGO short tonight.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  3:43:35 PM
Wow! Just marveling at Overstock.com's (OSTK) non-stop seven-week rally.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  3:38:23 PM
Someone may have gotten word of Stericycle's (SRCL) earnings numbers and the results might not be very good. The company is not supposed to report earnings until after the closing bell but shares are suddenly dropping sharply hitting new eight-month lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:30:59 PM
The 50-dma is being tested by the OEX, although it feels silly to list potential resistance since nothing has stopped the OEX so far. We have marked price/MACD divergence on the 7-minute chart, however. Bulls should continue to cinch up their stops, and perhaps decide soon if they're going to exit today. I'd probably suggest taking at least partial profits. If someone is going to exit, just cinching up stops tighter and tighter as the markets climb, letting them decide when to take you out, is one good method because it allows you to continue to participate in gains, if they continue.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  3:27:26 PM
A large sell program has just triggered on QQQ, 3M+ shares within 100 ticks, but price is holding steady at the highs. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 37, support now 36.51.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:24:08 PM
The TRAN continues a rounding-down into the potential right shoulder of its H&S perched on the top of today's steep climb. It hasn't been confirmed and the TRAN is firmly in breakout status, but this is something we can at least watch.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  3:22:46 PM
United Parcel Services (UPS) is now up three days in a row and breaking out over recent resistance to hit new all-time highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:16:32 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

New highs expanding on the NYSE and it isn't energy doing all the work.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  3:16:31 PM
Wholesale food distributor Sysco Corp (SYY) appears to be putting in a bottom near the $30 level. Today's 2.8% rally is a breakout over minor resistance near $31.25 and its simple 40 and 50-dma's. This looks like a bullish entry point if it weren't for SYY's earnings report on Nov. 1st.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:15:05 PM
I 've been watching the insurance sector, the IUX, on the theory that the insurance sector might be the first to show signs of weakening today. That's because the buying in that sector could have been technical buying after the recent plunge, with that opinion confirmed by today's doji at the 38.2% retracement of the recent plunge. The doji is a sign of indecision, if it carries over into the close, and I'm seeing definite and prolonged bearish price/MACD divergence, along with a kind of rounding-over look on the intraday chart, but nothing definitive there yet, either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:13:24 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 411 +3.58% .... back above MONTHLY R1. WEEKLY R1 (412.69) just ahead.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:12:30 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for FFIV $40.63 +23.63% ... to break even.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:06:20 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:04:46 PM
The OEX is still testing its 200-ema at 537.24. The 50-dma is just above that, at 538.16.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:01:16 PM
As the Dow tests 10,000, its sister index the TRAN remains in breakout mode. There's a H&S-ish formation at the top of the TRAN's climb, minus its right shoulder just yet, but we've seen one of those be rejected quite soundly already today, haven't we?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  2:42:38 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $50.85 +3.2% ... WEEKLY R2 lower at $50.16.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:41:51 PM
The OEX tested its 200-ema @ 537.24 and then pulled back. There's bearish price/MACD divergence on the five-minute chart, but we all know not to trust that completely, right? It's a warning, but one that might not be realized just yet or might be realized by a sideways-to-slightly-down move. The OEX remains in breakout mode on the five- and seven-minute charts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  2:41:29 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 135.01 +3.14% ... WEEKLY R2 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  2:38:15 PM
Day trade long alert ... for F5 Networks (FFIV) $39.95 +21.6% here, stop $39.30, target $41.50 by the close.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  2:32:33 PM
TRIN @ .76, LOD

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:29:07 PM
When the TRAN prints bearish price/MACD divergences on its five-minute chart, it does frequently respond as expected (by falling toward the mid-channel level or lower support on its Keltner chart, specifically). I'm seeing a tentative bearish divergence set up on the TRAN's just-reached peak, but the TRAN remains in breakout mode on that chart and on traditional charts showing it breaking out of the rising regression channel in which it's traded since March. Still, this bears watching.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  2:28:58 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1121, raise stop to 1123

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  2:23:34 PM
TRIN printing .78... this is a nail biter for sure so close to Dow 10,000 and you would expect a pullback but so far I'm not seeing it. Conservative traders may want to just bag another +3 here and call it a great day but I can't help but think there is a possibility of cracking Dow 10,000 which would be HUGE.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  2:20:45 PM
Stepping away for a few moments to nurse a headache.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:16:49 PM
I'm back. Maybe everyone should immediately go long every time I leave for an appointment? My leaving has seemed to have had a spectacular effect on the markets the last couple of days.

I got back and took one look that five-minute chart and saw that the rejection of this morning's H&S occurred at shortly after 10:30, after the inventories number would have been released and market reaction sorted through. That's what headlines say prompted the bounce, too, when I turn to news sources. I hope those of you who might have entered bearish on a rollover beneath the 38.2% retracement of October's range exited at an account-appropriate stop above that retracement level. No one likes to be in a losing trade, but the benefit of that one was that it was immediately clear when the trade had gone wrong. So much for all my theories about what might happen today. They were all wrong . . . unless the OEX reverses and produces a doji after all. I'd mentioned last night and this morning that my initial belief was that we might see either a long-legged or short-legged doji, and a pullback now would certainly create a long-legged one! I'd expected some thrusting around trying to find direction, but actually hadn't expected this big of a range. Then, this morning, the negative tenor made me question that original thesis.

Is that doji likely? I don't trust this buying, thinking that a whole lot of shorts are propelling this explosion higher, but that's how many rallies get started. Shorts start to cover, and then the higher levels hold, and then others start thinking they've been left behind.

Still, the OEX is zooming up to test its 200-ema at 537.24 as I type, with the 50-dma about a point above that. Those in bullish trades should continue to follow the OEX higher with their stops or have other profit-protecting plans in place as tests of these averages might limit further gains. The OEX is in breakout mode on the 5- and 7-minute channels, but it's just hit upper Keltner resistance on its 15-minute chart, one that's not violated as often or as long as those shorter time-interval's upper resistance is.

So, is it time for a bearish play? Maybe not just yet. This might be the best bearish entry to be had since early October, but I'm not seeing any signs of a pullback yet, at least not Keltner style. Other than some bearish divergence beginning to show up on five-minute peaks, my quick scans of charts aren't showing me anything definitive just yet. We've seen whole days when bearish divergences continue while prices keep climbing, too.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  2:15:36 PM
Making a charge at Dow 10,000... if it's successful it should trigger some serious short-covering, but I have my doubts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  2:14:32 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  2:09:22 PM
Conservative traders can exit now for another +2.5

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  2:06:57 PM
New session highs printing for ES and YM futures.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  2:05:49 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1121, raise stop to 1121
We are on the verge of an explosive breakout or a failure at Dow 10,000
Watch out if we close above Dow 10,000. That would be another great headline for the shorts to ponder overnight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  2:03:22 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  2:01:59 PM
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The economy grew in most regions of the United States in September and early October, despite signs that higher energy costs are beginning to bite, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday. "Economic activity continued to expand" in most Fed districts, the Fed's Beige Book report on current economic activity said. However, the report also raised a warning flag about energy costs.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:59:51 PM
TRIN is .82... correct me if I'm wrong but that is very close to LOD, no? There is no rule that says we can't crash with TRIN @ .82 but the low number does decrease the odds, add to that the very shallow pullback and it wouldn't take much to trigger another round of short-covering. On the flip side is Dow 10,000 dead ahead. What to do? Go with the trend until proven otherwise.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  1:56:05 PM
Fed Beige Book due in 5 minutes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  1:47:05 PM
Ssession low for ZN bonds, TNX now +8.4 bps or 2.11%. QQQ 36.67 looks like it wants to hold for a higher low.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:44:24 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Now long @ 1121.00, stop 1119.00

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:43:32 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go long with a touch of 1121.00

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:38:41 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out of short play @ 1121.33, +1

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:37:38 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Short @ 1122.33, lower stop to 1121.33
Go long @ 1121.50
We are just not dropping.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  1:32:45 PM
QQQ testing 36.67 support here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  1:25:36 PM
TNX +6.8 bps or 1.7% at 4.057% here. Zn bonds are .09 above the session low of 113.1719.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  1:24:00 PM
Nymex crude is down 2.1 at 53.07, -3.76%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  1:23:08 PM
VXO +21.34% at 16.26, unless I have bad data here from IB. QQV is down 6.02% at 19.99. Can anyone confirm the VXO? If it's that high, then someone's buying a lot of contracts.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  1:15:00 PM
Fox news is talking about a new "terror" tape that the CIA/NSA is evaluating today. No details on what's on the tape yet except that the English-speaking terrorist on it is threatening a major attack on the U.S. bigger than 9/11.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  1:12:41 PM
36.67 is now support under this trending move. The daily cycle upturns discussed in last night's Futures Wrap are drilling the overbought intraday cycles in overbought territory. Next 30 min channel resistance is at 36.82, but a failure to break back below 36.67 within the next few minutes will see the channel turn back up.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:12:21 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes... on the phone again

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:09:59 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short now... 1122.33, stop 1124.33

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  1:07:29 PM
Swing trade add to call option alert ... buy 2 more SMH Jan. $35 calls (SMH-AZ) at the offer of $1.70.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:07:17 PM
Potential Day Trade Setup Alert -
Stand by for another short entry

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  1:03:58 PM
Silicon Valley Bankshares (SIVB) alert $40.00 +1.47% Link ... New 52-week high from a tech-loaning bank.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  1:03:37 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out of short play @ 1119.50, -2

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:59:48 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:54:48 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Short @ 1117.50, raise stop to 1119.50

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:49:38 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Short entry triggered @ 1117.50, tight stop @ 1118.50
I'm wondering if I shouldn't have had a long trigger @ 1117.50 vs a short trigger but the MACD negative divergence was almost 2 hours old so I went with what the chart was saying rather than my gut instinct.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  12:49:31 PM
A very weak short cycle downphase is in progress, with a sideways drift in price for QQQ. The 60 min cycle upphase continues, and the 30 min cycle channel is flat, most likely trying to roll over- but that's how it looked below 36.04 as well. A move below 36.40 will kick off an overdue 30 min cycle downphase.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  12:48:19 PM
Wrigley Wm Jr. (WWY) is also on the move with a two-day bounce that is breaking out over resistance at the $64 level. The P&F chart is bullish with an $83 target.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  12:44:24 PM
Fannie Mae (FNM) is also on the move higher. Shares have spent the last couple of weeks consolidating under the $69.00-69.50 range. Today FNM is breaking out with a 2% gain and challenging the $70 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  12:42:19 PM
Sun Microsystems (SUNW) is up more than 2% and breaking out over resistance near $4.30 and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:40:36 PM
Day Trade Entry Point Alert -
Go short with a touch of 1117.50

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  12:39:04 PM
Specialty retailer Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is breaking out over resistance at The $40 mark today hitting new six-month highs and breaking the neckline of a potential inverse H&S pattern.

 
 
  James Brown   10/27/20,  12:37:28 PM
Irish drug-maker Elan (ELN) is breaking out over resistance in the $25.50 area to hit new three-year highs today. Look for the company to report earnings tomorrow morning before the bell. Estimates are for -27 cents a share.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  12:36:13 PM
TNX is pulling back slightly off the highs, currently up 5 bps at 4.038% (+1.23% for the day). Recall that this is in the context of a combined daily and weekly cycle upturn. Provided that yesterday's low doesn't broken, these upphases should strengthen.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:34:29 PM
That exit may have been premature but now that we have the +10 they can't take it back.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:33:53 PM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $53.88 -2.33% (30-minute delayed) ... intra-day chart on 5-minute intervals at this Link

Stock's highs might be in if oil moves back above $54.22. Need further weakness below $52.79 to extend rally.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:32:56 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out of long play @ 1118.50, +10

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:32:16 PM
We are at a critical juncture here. If we don't move to new highs I expect a deeper pullback and if we are stopped out I will look to reenter long again when/if the timing looks right.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:30:02 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1108.50, raise stop to 1118.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:22:59 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 4.6 bp at 4.035% ....

5-year yield ($FVX.X) up 5.7 bp at 3.308% .... There's hope for the SHY put yet!

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  12:21:30 PM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1108.50, raise stop to 1117.50
I'm getting nervous

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  12:16:58 PM
QQQ retesting 36.50 and finding support so far. But the short cycle channel is rolling over now and the 30 min channel is stalling in its upphase. Bulls need a quick bounce back above 36.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:16:46 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:02:10 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Oil bulls were buyers just above WEEKLY S1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  12:01:51 PM
Classic flagpole rally, now in the narrow upper "flag" stage of the pattern.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  11:55:31 AM
We have a nominally lower high below the session highs just printed for QQQ. Look for a retest of 36.50 on the way to 36.40. Rising 7200-tick SMA support is at 36.38, with next support (confluence and lower 30 min channel) at 36.18-.20.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  11:44:53 AM
Euros and gold are down .32% and .51% respectively, not much, but trading session lows. It appears that equities are bouncing with the US Dollar Index. Bonds remain weak. QQQ is testing the prior high here, so far failing to tag the 36.69 high. A lower high will be bearish and set up a retest of 36.50 support, given the overbought cycles across all intraday timeframes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:44:29 AM
SPX.X 1,118.80 +0.7% (200-day SMA 1,119.37) .... thinking about economic table and SPX 1,125.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:43:52 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 2.5 bp at 4.014%. Trades WEEKLY Pivot first time this week.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:40:32 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.22 +0.01% (30-minute delayed) ... testing correlative DAILY R1 and WEEKLY S1 resistance.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  11:21:48 AM
Force of habit had me posting on the Monitor side this morning. I have now switched to the Futures side.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  11:20:56 AM
There's a shallow pullback here off the highs, with an obvious bull-flaggish feel to it. QQQ has yet to make it back below the steeply rising upper Keltner35 resistance band. All intraday cycles are buried in overbought territory, and if this was merely a terminal 60 min cycle blowoff, it was one of the largest I've seen. Bears will want to see a move below 36.40 QQQ for starters, with stiffer support at 36.18.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  11:20:47 AM
Day Trade Exit Point -
Long @ 1108.50, raise stop to 1115.50
Conservative traders can exit now for +9

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  11:15:37 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1108.50, raise stop to 1115.50

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  11:10:57 AM
Wow! My 10:21 wish list is complete...
SOX 405.95
TRIN 1.07
Dow 9944
Shorts are running around with their hair on fire. The prospect that oil may have reached a top has lit the afterburners. I should have known it was about to top out when Bloomberg reported this morning that oil could go as high as $80/bbl according to one analyst. He may be right eventually but not today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/27/20,  11:10:33 AM
Traders should understand that funds who are long oil going into their October year end on Friday were probably hoping for one more inventory short fall to exit those contracts at the highs. When the selling started their stops were hit and they are racing for the exits. That cash will be shoved into equities ahead of their year end to dress up their statements. Add in the AWE/CIT index imbalance and the expectation for a post election rally and all the signals suddenly turned positive.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:10:31 AM
Day trade short alert ... for Bema Gold (BGO) $3.05 bid, stop $3.12, target $2.91.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:08:33 AM
11:03 Market Watch at this Link

This bid has to be coming from the higher production figures in the crude report.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  11:07:25 AM
I believe that this is what Fleck refers to as a wire-to-wire meltup.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:06:41 AM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,117.92, QQQ $36.53, TNX.X up 0.9 bp at 3.998%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  11:04:18 AM
Session highs across the board. QQQ never rolled over, and the other 30 min cycle downphases are whipsawing back up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:59:31 AM
QQQ breaking higher. 36.22 is now support.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  10:56:00 AM
Dow just went green and is only 5 points away from 9900... glad I didn't bail early. It will take some external event to stop this rally now IMO. Watch for the normal pullback @ 9900.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:55:08 AM
QQQ is just testing the 200% retracement of yesterday's range at 36.22.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:54:09 AM
QQQ has just launched above 30, 60 and short cycle channel resistance. If this lasts longer than 10 minutes, we could be looking at a very strong trending move- the stuff of flagpole rallies. The keltner breach should reverse, if it's going to at all, within the next few minutes.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  10:52:13 AM
TRIN has dropped to a realtively low 1.25

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  10:46:20 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1108.50, raise stop to 1108.50
I'm considering bailing early... conservative traders can exit now for +1
The SOX and TRIN continue to bother me and we are going nowhere fast on SPX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:45:55 AM
The 30 min cycle channels have flattened on all indices except QQQ, which is again lagging behind. The failure at 36.04 is in range for a higher high, but given how overbought the 30 min cycle oscillators have become, I'm still on the lookout for a cycle top at these levels. A break below rising trendline support, now at 35.77, should kick off some fireworks, with 30 min channel support now up to 35.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:36:22 AM
Headline Energy figures ...

Refinery inputs averaged 14.9 million barrels per day, up 100,000 bbls per day from prior week.

Gasoline production increased, averaging 8.9 million bpd.

Distillate fuel production increased, averaging 3.8 million bpd.

Inventories ....

Crude oil up 4.0 million for the week.

Gasoline up 1.3 million barrels.

Distillates fell for sixth week in a row, down 2.4 million barrels.

Full report at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:32:23 AM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,110.02 , QQQ $35.93, TNX.X down 1.5 bp at 3.974%.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/27/20,  10:30:11 AM
Alert - Oil and Gas Inventories = +4.0 Mil bbls, (last 279.4mb)
Distillate down -2.4 mb

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:23:06 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  10:21:48 AM
My wish list for today...
SOX back above 400
TRIN to trend down to neutral (TRIN is really bothering me) Dow above 9900... that may be too much to ask for but it would probably take of the TRIN problem

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:20:22 AM
QQQ has stalled 2 cents below the prior high of 35.91. The 30 minute cycle for SPX has flashed sell signals, but not for QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:16:22 AM
The 30 min channel upphase for QQQ sputtered but did not stall, with the upper resistance line up to 36.00 currently and lined up with confluence resistance at that level. A failure at or below the previous high of 35.91 (2 cents away) will set us up for a retest of the day low, while a failure at or below 36 (a nominally higher high) will leave the door open for the bulls while still being potentially bearish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:12:13 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:07:40 AM
Looks like the QQQ rising trendline has held again for the 7th time since 10AM yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  10:06:02 AM
It's time for me to take off for my appointment. So far, everything is working okay for a bearish play, but I'd be cautious because of the supposition that today might be a choppy, difficult-to-trade day. Bulls are going to choose a spot to defend markets somewhere through here. That might be at 529, 526.50-528, . . . well, you get the message. The seven-minute chart, usually reliable, suggests that firm support will be encountered near 528.80-529, but that if the OEX breaks soundly through that level or else bounces slightly and then rolls down through it, 526.50 might be tested. That outlook will change as the day progresses and Keltner lines shift, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:05:10 AM
10:03 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:03:23 AM
QQQ is testing rising trendline support connecting all of yesterday's lows. Look for a drop below 35.72-.74 on a volume spike. That should give us a heads-up on a possible (and due now) reversal in the toppy 30 min cycle.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  10:00:22 AM
The 30 min channel is still rising for QQQ, but it will stall on a break below 35.70 for longer than 3-5 minutes. Channel support is currently at 35.58 QQQ.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/27/20,  10:00:04 AM
New Home Sales = 1.206 mil,(est 1,145,000, last 1,184,000)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:59:11 AM
Small H&S confirmed on the OEX's five-minute chart, but the OEX is turning around immediately to retest the neckline. If any entered a bearish position this morning (see my 9:35 post), the 7-minute Keltner chart suggests that they should have profit-protecting plans in place for 527.40-526.70, in case there's a bounce from that level. The chart actually suggests that a bounce may occur earlier, at about 529, up to retest broken support. The downside target for that H&S, if it meets its downside target, is near 527.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  9:58:13 AM
A net 2B drain from the Fed, with 4.75B in overnight repos against 6.75B expiring.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  9:57:42 AM
QQQ is below 35.80, testing confluence support from 1PM yesterday at 35.78.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:55:13 AM
The OEX is now rising into what would be an appropriate right-shoulder area for a H&S at the top of its steep climb yesterday on the five-minute chart. If that formation is going to confirm, the OEX should probably start rounding down somewhere elow 530.60 (as may be happening now) or at least by 530.75. A new high will negate the formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  9:53:44 AM
VIX.X 16.43 +0.24% .... DAILY Pivot levels .... 15.49, 15.90, Piv=16.39 , 16.80, 17.28

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:52:33 AM
For those of you who skip the early morning update on Asian and European markets, Taiwan Semiconductor, supposedly the largest foundry in the world, said that it expected a sharp decrease in factory use for the fourth quarter. Some Asian semiconductor stocks declined as a result of that announcement, although techs had generally been performing well in the early overnight session. Not all U.S. investors follow Asian news, although I believe it important in the tech arena, and those who do may feel that all the bad news is already priced in, but you might keep this information on your radar screen as you watch the SOX today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   10/27/20,  9:51:45 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1108.50, stop 1106.50
Leave the stop @ 1106.50 for now. It is stragecially placed and will not be taken out unless we really do rollover and drop out of late yesterday's area of congestion. Conservative traders can exit now for +1

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  9:48:24 AM
The Fed has 6.75B in overnight repos expiring today. No word yet as to whether there will be a net add or drain for the day. Don't forget the new home sales number due at 10AM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:46:52 AM
Since about 3:00 pm Monday afternoon, the OEX has been finding support at a three-minute Keltner line that's currently at 529.84, closing at or above that line ever since, and bouncing from it when touched. One three-minute close just a touch beneath that line, something that has just happened, is probably not terribly significant as long as the OEX goes ahead and bounces, but if more three-minute closes are beneath that line, that signifies a slightly chink in the bullish mortar (or is that the armor?).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  9:45:52 AM
Session high for Dec. gold here at 430. HUI and XAU are both positive, but up less than .35% for the day so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  9:44:16 AM
QQQ didn't make it to 35.94 channel resistance, but the pullback has shied away from 35.80 support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:43:11 AM
The first retracement of the day should begin in a few minutes, and the strength or weakness of that retracement might tell us something about market strength or weakness. Bears don't want to see a new high reached, while bulls do. Note that there's a potential H&S building at the top of the OEX's climb (five-minute chart), and a rise only to 530.75 or so and then a rounding down from there would fit that potential formation's pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:35:44 AM
The OEX is turning down from the 38.2% retracement of the decline from October's high to October's low. TRIN so far supports a bearish supposition for the day. My presumed scenario was for a choppy trading day, and that may be what we get, but I'd expected a rise in the early morning, some follow-through to yesterday's action, as part of that scenario. Those who like to enter a bearish trade just under a presumed strong resistance level (531.75-532) could risk a position as long as their accounts could stand being whipsawed and they could adhere to their stops if the OEX reverses and proves them wrong. If you have a small account and can't trade in and out because of day-trading rules, you might or might not want to risk one of your three-a-week round-trip trades on this play, because there has to be some bullish sentiment left over from yesterday. I won't be here this morning to comment on what I see, so you'd have to feel comfortable with your own judgments about market direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  9:34:42 AM
Netease.com (NTES) $46.03 +12.65% ... surges after Sina Corp. (SINA) $34.38 +21% said profits surged in latest quarter as strong advertising boosted results.

Chinese Internets on fire!

SOHU $20.07 +11.5%, TOMO $12.66 +9.12%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  9:32:12 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $43.30 +3.16% .... company said its stun guns have been approved for field trials by national police forces in Sweden and Finland.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  9:30:29 AM
QQQ update at this Link . The 30 min cycle oscillators are still rising and nearly maxxed out. Bulls should be out of time on that cycle on a move to upper channel resistance at 35.94, with confluence resistance to 36.00.

 
 
  Keene Little   10/27/20,  9:14:37 AM
Jim, thanks for the update from Jeremy Grantham, a large money manager (1:00 AM). He must be a Prechter fan (wink). For those who don't know Bob Prechter, he's the Elliott Wave guy who's been preaching since 1995 that we're going to have a market crash that takes us back to at least 1994 levels. Eventually he may be right but he and his team have been so consistently bearish that they've missed some very good bullish moves (like the past 1-1/2 years). The interesting thing about Jeremy Grantham's forecast (SPX 725) for the next 2 years, is that it follows a typical bear market.

So here's my Long Term Elliott Wave Forecast:
I often talk about A-B-C corrections and on a grand scale, after the completion of the last bull market in 2000 we're in the middle of that A-B-C correction. We had wave-A down from 2000 to 2002, wave-B up currently and we're due for wave-C down. I agree that wave-B might still have some more upside to go before rolling over.

Wave-C will be a big decline and probably take us below Oct 2002 levels. If wave-C = wave-A, a typical fib relationship, the downside projection is to SPX 401. Scary. The interesting thing about that projection is that it takes us back to 1994 levels (425). This level is a previous 4th wave in the large bull count from the post-1929 crash and in Elliott Wave patterns, retracements typically correct back to the previous 4th wave.

Whether this kind of correction takes 2 more years or 13 more years (can we expect an 18-year bear market after the last 18-year bull market?), who knows. I prefer to play the day-to-day swings which is tough enough. BTW, the DOW projects down to about 3600. Seems outrageous today but stranger things have happened in this market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:10:02 AM
My prejudice today is toward a choppy day, as evidenced by my late-night report last night, included here: After a day that sees strong gains, it's common to see either a choppy or tight-range day the next day, producing a doji, whether long-legged or short-legged, or other candle typical of indecision. That may be particularly true tomorrow, with both bulls and bears thoroughly confused. The OEX retraced 38.2% of the decline from the October high to the October low, with that number at about 531.75. A 38.2-50% retracement is to be expected, but not quite so quickly or spectacularly. There was nothing bear-flaggish looking about that climb, and it instead completed an approximation of a morning-star reversal pattern: Link

Tomorrow may be a good day to sit out trading while we let bulls and bears battle it out. We'll look for signs of what happens next as the day progresses.

That's still my presumptive scenario for the day, although I'm wondering how the Durable Goods disappointment might factor into that. Perhaps we'll still get a tepid rise, which I've expected, but perhaps a rollover could be trusted more? But then you've got to factor in indecision about election results, too, and how that might impact the markets. Futures certainly act if markets want to recover . . . I'll stick with that scenario that says expect a choppy day, but I'll also look for signs that something different is happening.

At least I'll look for those signs while I'm monitoring the markets. I'll be leaving for an appointment this morning that will take me away for a good chunk of the day. I'll stay on the MM as long as I can and return as soon as I can, afraid I'll miss the action.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  8:33:26 AM
The Durable Shipments number represents the largest drop in 13 months. QQQ is up .02 at 35.84, equities have flipped to negative with ES at 1109.25, and gold is up .60 at 428.30. Ten years notes are nearly flat, with TNX +.7 bps at 3.996%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  8:31:59 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. SEPT DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 0.2% V. 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. SEPT. DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 1.2%

8:30am U.S. SEPT. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS UP 2.6%

8:30am U.S. SEPT. EX-TRANSPORTATION ORDERS UP 1.7%

8:30am U.S. SEPT. ELECTRONICS ORDERS UP 9.3%

8:30am U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 12.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/27/20,  8:03:41 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1111, NQ 1445.5, YM 9878 and QQQ +.06 to 35.88. Gold is up 70 cents to 428.40, silver +.024 to a session high of 7.369, ten year notes +.015 to 113.8125 and Nymex crude -.075 at 55.10.

We await the 8:30 release of Sept. durable orders, est .5% and at 10AM, new home sales, est. 1.15M. The Beige Book is scheduled to be released at 2PM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  7:32:44 AM
Good morning. A quake hit about 100 miles north of Tokyo last night, sending the Nikkei down to its low of the session, and the yen temporarily down against the dollar, too. The Nikkei managed a slightly positive close, however, and the yen strengthened again against the dollar. Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings report rocked some tech stocks, but commodity stocks tended to be higher in Asian. Europe is seeing a rebound in some insurers, with most European markets posting gains. Our futures drifted lower until shortly after Europe's open, and have now come back. As of 7:00 EST, gold was up $0.70, and crude was down $0.12. More detail follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped up almost 70 points at the open Wednesday, but a magnitude-5.7 earthquake centered about 100 miles north of Tokyo rocked the markets, too. The Nikkei dove toward the flat-line level, and stayed there the rest of the day, closing up 19.49 points or 0.18%, at 10,691.95. As the earthquake hit, the yen fell against the dollar, helping to produce that sudden drop in equities, too, but that weakness in the yen was transitory.

Before the quake, tech stocks had gained. Banks have been reporting, and many major banks had gained. Automakers gained ahead of earnings reports due this week, with Honda's due Wednesday. By the end of the day, commodity stocks appeared to have the edge in Asia.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. In Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor's outlook included a sharp decrease in factory use for the fourth quarter, with that pronouncement sending Taiwan's tech stocks lower. Since Taiwan Semiconductor is termed the world's largest foundry, that news could impact other markets, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.21%, and South Korea's Kospi lost 0.47%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.08%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.11%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.36%.

Currently, most European bourses post gains. Insurers rebound with hope that the New York attorney general's probe will soon be resolved. Dutch insurer and bank ING Groep also benefited from a Morgan Stanley upgrade to an overweight rating, with Morgan Stanley noting its preference of ING over Fortis, and saying that the potential impact of the New York attorney general's probe had already been discounted. Reporting companies remained in focus, with Unilever being one of those reporting companies. The company lost ground after its earnings report, with the company reporting declining third quarter sales of leading brands due to lagging sales in Western Europe.

As of 7:00 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 18.50 points or 0.40%, to trade at 4,601.90. The CAC 40 had gained 14.58 points or 0.40%, to trade at 3,634.06. The DAX had gained 16.92 points or 0.44%, to trade at 3,879.18.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/26/20,  1:00:49 AM
I received an email from a reader tonight highlighting the market outlook frmo Jeremy Grantham a money manager who is Chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. They manage about $80+ billion in private funds. The net of his market outlook is that the next two months should be bullish but the next two years could be ugly. He is predicting 725 on the S&P and has plenty of facts to back it up.

Historically the first two years of a presidential cycle are down more than 50% of the time as programs get initiated or changed. (Actually I believe the first two years of a second term president have an even worse record) Jeremy has tracked 27 historical bubbles and EVERY one has reverted to the original pre bubble levels. Every one! The biggest bubble of all is of course the Internet/Y2K boom that burst in March 2000 and according to Jeremy is going to continue bursting until the S&P returns to 725 sometime over the next two years.

If you have time you might visit this link and read the full text. The second article contains the forecast. Link

I don't know Jeremy but anybody that manages $80 billion for a living must be doing something right.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/26/20,  11:28:42 PM
I was updating my economics table tonight at this Link

I've updated some of the upcoming economic reports and economists' forecasts.

Today's release of October Consumer Confidence was 92.8 and very close to April's 93.0 reading.

Look where the SPX trades today (1,111) and where it closed in April (1,107) just before the red 5, which is early May. Link

Oil/energy prices was what the Conference Board said was biggest drag on consumer confidence. Oil has risen from $37.38 to $55.12, a 47% increase! Link

Retailers ($RLX.X) are holding just above their April, May, June (4,5,6) 400-405 trade. Link

Transports ($TRAN) Link have exceeded their bullish vertical count of 3,360.

Gold ($GOLD) Link has done well.

The dollar ($USD) Link has not.

Treasuries have done well in recent months, but the 10-year yield ($TNX.X) approaches its downside yield count of 3.90%. Link

The only way I see the 10-year yield reversing back higher right now is a lower oil price.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/26/20,  11:28:24 PM
Annotated INDU,SPX, NDX & COMPQ charts: Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/26/20,  11:28:02 PM
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