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  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  8:26:33 PM
On my last post before leaving for the day, I noted that I still expected a pullback into the close, with a daily candle that left both upper and lower shadows. If I say that enough days in a row, I'm bound to be right once! The pullback was a shallow one, not even retracing 19.1% of the rise off Monday's low. If this is "the" pullback, it should probably retrace somewhere between a third and a half of that rally, with that taking the OEX down to about 534 or 531.60. But is it "the" pullback? What's the evidence suggesting that it might be? First, there's the fact that the pullback occurred at the important 540-541 S/R zone. Second, bearish price/MACD divergence had been showing up on intraday charts and MACD even completed a nice little H&S on those intraday charts. On a daily Keltner chart, the day's candle straddled the mid-channel zone.

Still evidence is mixed. Let me play bull's advocate. On a 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX has dropped under the breakout zone again, but Keltner resistance overhead still turns up, so it's possible that the OEX might still break to the upside again. The OEX closed above its 200-ema and 50-dma. Daily MACD made a tentative bullish cross, if from below signal.

I don't really have enough evidence to weigh bullish versus bearish, and I bet a lot of other people don't, either. I could present a fair argument, I think, for a rise to the top of the OEX's ascending regression channel and perhaps a test of the 200-sma. I could also present a fair argument, I think, for a H&S formation building on the daily chart (bearish divergence at the last swing high, too), with the OEX's rise actually helping to complete the right shoulder that had seemed too stunted when the OEX rolled down from the 10/19 high.

If I could argue both sides convincingly, so could others, and that may make for another choppy day tomorrow. 2003 drove home the lesson that the trend is your friend. Because we still have an intact trend of lower highs and lower lows on the OEX since January and will have unless the OEX now makes a higher high before a lower low, my vote would have to go tentatively to the roll down between here and the 200-sma, and probably from 540-543. However, that tentative bullish MACD cross, the persistent underpinning to the market that might carry through to election day, and other factors give me pause. I don't want to make too many decisions ahead of tomorrow's economic numbers, either. For now, my vote goes to a potentially choppy day with an attempt at a push higher and an attempt at a rollover, with an unknown outcome to those attempts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  5:16:27 PM
Cabelas (CAB) $26.42 +3.77% ... after the bell discloses filing for secondary offering of 12 million shares. Stock is offered by selling stockholders, and the company will not receive proceeds from the offering.

I don't see a price, but might eyeball an average price of $26.00 since IPO.

Awaiting earnings. Not many follow, but consensus around $0.18.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  5:09:17 PM
Sanmina (SANM) $7.53 +1.07% ... lower at $7.47 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.08 vs. consensus of $0.09 per share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  5:07:56 PM
Gateway (GTW) $5.39 +2.86% ... higher at $5.80 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.01 vs consensus that was looking for a loss of $0.07 per share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  5:06:05 PM
Amercian Power Conv. (APCC) $17.08 +0.23% ... surging to $20.45 after blowing away consensus of $0.17 with headline $0.28 per share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  5:04:18 PM
S1 Corp. (SONE) $9.17 -1.07% ... lower at $8.95 after reporting inline EPS of $0.04.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  5:00:47 PM
McAfee (MFE) $23.36 -0.25% Link ... jumps to $25.50 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.18 vs. consensus of $0.12.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  4:56:25 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/28/20,  4:31:45 PM
Alert - GTW beats estimates for a loss of -0.04 cents with a profit of +0.01 cents. Guiding lower for Q4.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  4:15:09 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Closed out the overnight Day trade short in Bema Gold (BGO) at $3.00. ($0.05, or +1.64%)

Day trade long JDS Uniphase (JDSU) at $3.11, but closed out at $3.15 as major indices softened up a little. ($0.04, or +1.29%).

I monitored the TASR Dec. $45 calls (QUR-LI) as best I could, and lowest bid I saw was $2.50 as TASR shares traded around $40.12

I (Jeff Bailey) was disappointed with today's market reaction regarding JDSU, as it relates to the gap lower. The fundamental side of me really begins to see some renewed interest in building out high speed fiber networks.

While Corning (GLW) $11.35 -0.26% isn't setting the world on fire any more than JDSU has, I didn't see "group think" and sympathy selling in GLW.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  4:00:58 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $40.30 -4.52% Link ... session low so far has been $40.01.

If looking for a place where any shorts would be somewhat eager to cover on a pullback, that'd be the place to start looking.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/28/20,  3:52:16 PM
Earnings before the open on Friday:

LNT, APC, AVP, BEC, BMY, CCU, CEG, CAM, HC, JAH, NOI, PGL, WON

Heavily weighted to energy companies.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/28/20,  3:42:58 PM
Earnings after the close include:

ADPT, APCC, AOC, CELL, CHRT, CHRD, CSTR, DCLK, ETS, GTW, IM, IVGN, KANA, MFE, MDCC, NTGR, NEWP, NVTL, PKI, SANM, SAPE, SCSC, SOHU

That is about 1/3 of the total companies reporting. Lots of very small companies.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  3:20:56 PM
Looks like the short cycle bears have done it. The 30 minute channel upphase for QQQ is stalling, and a break below 36.80 support for 10 minutes should kick off the new downphase. Support below is at 36.60 and 36.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  3:17:03 PM
36.90 support is now being tested. Nymex crude has reopened in the red, -.15 at 50.75 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  3:16:24 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert ... lets close out the JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.15 day trade long here at the bid of $3.15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  3:14:30 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  3:14:15 PM
36.95 is cracking has I type. The wavelet upphase has just stalled.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  3:13:27 PM
A wavelet upphase is just getting started here- bears need the previous 37.12 QQQ high to hold, while bulls need to stay north of 36.95.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  3:07:23 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  3:02:10 PM
QQQ's taking its sweet time testing 36.95. There's a slight uptick in downside volume, but a wavelet downphase is reaching the bottom of its range right here. It's do or doo doo time for the bears, as the short cycle will have to run the ball from here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  3:01:01 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert .. for JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.17 -9.68% ... to break even.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/28/20,  2:59:03 PM
With the presidential candidates in a virtual dead heat, and the reports of phalanxes of lawyers standing beside their idling Gulfstream jets ready to move at a moments notice, are there any among us that still believe that we will have a clear and uncontested winner on election night?

Need I remind you what happened in 2000 when day’s drug into weeks before a winner was declared? It has been said that “the markets hate uncertainty”. What do you suppose the market’s reactions will be when throngs of “voters” start wailing and screeching about being disenfranchised, and dozens (perhaps hundreds) of lawsuits are being filed in multiple jurisdictions? The post-election rally that everyone is so eagerly anticipating will be road kill! John

John I completely agree!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:58:18 PM
American Intl. Group (AIG) $61.17 +1.91% .... Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,032.71 +0.21% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:57:37 PM
Hartford Financial (HIG) $58.66 -0.69% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:56:10 PM
Marsh & McLennan (MMC) $28.30 -1.32% ... moves to session low, gets some volume as CNBC reports that Eliot Spitzer saying settlement with MMC is not certain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:53:54 PM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $51.00 -2.7% ... (30-minute delayed) ... but that's enought to get a breakdown going. $0.25 box size at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:49:42 PM
Oil has gotten notably weaker in last hour. Some trader talk that hedge funds starting to unload.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:44:01 PM
Priority Health (PHCC) $18.86 -6.58% Link .... Southwest cutting its rating to "long-term buy" from "strong buy" after company reported in-line quarterly results, but forward guidance disclosed significantly higher SGA expenses. Firm sees stock trading in narrow range next couple of months, but maintains target of $25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  2:43:14 PM
Ten year bonds are unchanged for the day, with gold lower by 30 cents and Nymex crude lower by 2.67% at 51.05. I don't know if it's just my having to work with an old backup monitor to replace the one that burned out this AM, but the markets feel strange today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  2:39:32 PM
Breakout to a new high on the TRAN, but that bearish divergence, traditional and Keltner continues. The OEX stretches higher, too. I still think that this climb does not look healthy, so bulls should continue to follow the OEX higher with their stops. I still keep thinking that this ought to be a consolidation day, so still am wary of a pullback into the close. That's what I thought yesterday morning, too, though.

We're dealing with a medical emergency in my family, and I must unfortunately leave again, to be gone through the close today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  2:39:17 PM
The 30 and 60 min cycle resistance bands stopped the rise for QQQ, and barring a vertical launch (as occurred at a similar point yesterday), the going should be very tough. However, the failure of price to fall immediately back lower is causing both channels to tilt back up. This is a problem for bears, because the 30 minute cycle is not longer even close to overbought, and has plenty of room to run higher. Bears need to see the price back below 36.95 at minimum, and better yet to wait for the 5 extra cents of confirmation above the secondary intraday confluence at 36.90.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:38:58 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $41.42 -2% ... defensive last 20 minutes

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  2:28:30 PM
36.95 held, and so 37 QQQ becomes new resistance. Next fibonacci resistance from yesterday's range is at 37.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  2:23:09 PM
The bearish divergence, Keltner style, continues on the TRAN's chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:20:39 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  2:20:05 PM
If the OEX closes above 539.06, it will be closing above mid-Keltner S/R on the daily chart. Until the close, however, we can only say that the OEX is testing that resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:11:43 PM
Bullish day trade lower target alert .... I'm going to pull back on my intra-day bullish target on JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.17 -9.68% ... to $3.20 from $3.25.

Lowering day trade target to $3.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  2:10:55 PM
OEX moving higher. I just really do not like the shape of that climb, but those who are in bullish positions should be cheered by the fact that the OEX did break to the upside out of a "bearish" rising wedge, and is maintaining breakout status on the 7-minute Keltner charts. They should also have profit-protecting plans in mind as the OEX tests this important zone.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  2:08:51 PM
QQQ is breaking out above 36.95 here, but volume is far from heavy- could easily whip back down. Look for support at 36.95 to confirm the move to 37.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  2:08:40 PM
In one of my last posts before leaving for my appointment, I mentioned that the TRAN was rounding down into a right shoulder, but doing it so reluctantly that I suspected that it might rise and negate that formation, and that's what has happened. The TRAN is now rising to retest the day's high. It's showing some tentative bearish Keltner-style divergence and real price/MACD divergence as it does so, however. Stop run? We'll see soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  2:05:34 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  2:04:35 PM
I told you that if I left, markets were likely to move, and lately, those moves have been to the upside. The OEX has moved up to challenge that important 540-541 resistance. The move higher does not look healthy, but healthy or not, it's occurring.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  2:03:02 PM
A new short cycle upphase is underway, and it should persist so long as price stays above 36.78. Rising trendline support is roughly 7 or 8 cents below that, and so the picture appers bullish in varying degrees above 36.70. 30 min channel support is at the triple-intraday-bottom 36.60 level. 36.50 is 60 min channel support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  1:41:51 PM
No pullback whatsoever for QQQ at 36.87. Gold has ticked down a few cents, as have bonds, with TNX now down .7 bps at 4.078%. There's much more tension than actual movement today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  1:31:19 PM
New highs in the futures across the board, with QQQ trailing behind.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  1:24:51 PM
A failure on this weak wavelet upphase for QQQ would be an encouraging sign for bears. While QQQ is obviously out of the realm of a possible head and shoulders top due to the complexity of the range for the past day, a lower high would create a vantage from which to retest the rising support line today and the key 36.50 support line. The trouble is that there's little to indicate anything more than cosolidation in any of the markets today- bonds, equities and metals are all trading listlessly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  1:08:48 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   10/28/20,  1:07:38 PM
Today, October 28th, 2004, is the 75th anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash where the Dow Jones Industrials lost 23% of its value.

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/28/20,  1:06:20 PM
Dateline CNN Ailing Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat will be taken to Paris for treatment, Palestinian sources say.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  1:03:47 PM
I have a leave for about an hour for an appointment. The OEX is now forming a clear rising wedge--supposedly bearish, but most breaks lately have been to the upside. Draw the trendlines and watch them, because a movement is bound to get underway now that I'm going to be gone for an hour!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  12:58:23 PM
Day trade bulls can only wish JDSU "fades" toward's its DAILY Pivot of $3.44.

JDSU $3.15 -10.25% .... DAILY Pivot levels ... $3.20, $3.36, $3.44 $3.60.

WEEKLY S2 $3.08 found buyers. WEEKLY S1 at $3.23.

 
 
  James Brown   10/28/20,  12:56:24 PM
An AP article is reporting that the CNNFn financial news network, CNN's attempt to compete with CNBC, is shutting down after nine years.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  12:54:15 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

I think equity bulls need some YIELD support in here, or we could start to see equities fade back toward their DAILY Pivots.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  12:52:24 PM
Looks like the lower rising QQQ support line is going to hold for this third test. It's still technically a higher low, by about 3 cents, enough to maintain a broader rising triangle. A break above the session high should be very strong, surprised though I'd be to see it from here.

 
 
  James Brown   10/28/20,  12:51:25 PM
The rally continues for the homebuilders. The DJUSHB index is up another 1% and now up five of the last six days.

Centex (CTX) is up 1.7% today and breaking out over resistance at the $52 level. CTX is up 6 of the last 7 days.

Pulte Homes (PHM) is breaking out over the $55 level and its simple 100-dma.

Ryland Homes (RYL) is breaking out over resistance at the $95 level to hit new all-time highs.

Beazer Homes (BZH) is up 1.36% and breaking out over resistance at the $110 level.

More home-related stocks: HOV, LEN, DHI, TOL, SPF, MTH, MHO, and KBH.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  12:48:29 PM
The TRAN, my favored indicator index of late, is rounding oh-so-slowly into a possible right shoulder, but that rounding is so reluctant that I'm wondering if that 3454 or 3447 support isn't going to hold and send the TRAN up again. Still could go either direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  12:44:49 PM
Keene mentioned the price action in bonds today in his 12:39 post on the Futures side of the MM. He notes that a bond rally is usually negative for equities, but that today it's only causing equities to go flat. I'm watching currencies. The dollar slipped lower against the yen earlier this morning, although it's gone flat, too, but flat at a level that's still below last week's support level. Lately, weakness in the dollar has gone hand in hand with weakness in equities. Crude is rising today, also normally a negative for equities. I'm not feeling so bad about being confused about market direction. Something's wrong with this picture.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  12:42:28 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  12:40:46 PM
Is this a bullish right triangle forming on the OEX's five-minute chart (flat top, rising trendline for bottom support)? This is one of those days when one formation morphs into another.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  12:36:57 PM
Bonds are up here, with TNX now down 3.8 bps at 4.049%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  12:32:31 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert .... for JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.14 -10.54% ... to $3.08.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/28/20,  12:29:19 PM
Those who follow my posts on MM, know that I track MUR Murphy Oil. I stated the other day that $80 was nearterm support, however, I would look at the 100-ema as an entry point if oil continues to correct here. Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/28/20,  12:26:24 PM
Linda, yesterday morning I posted that with the TRIN as high as it was you can be rest assured we won't have the same kind of day we had on Tuesday. So it caught me too.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/28/20,  12:25:11 PM
Follow-up to INTC chart. Watch $22.50 level on INTC. Over 107,000 on open interest for November calls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  12:23:54 PM
Thanks for the vote of confidence, Jane. I'm feeling a little bruised after my expectation yesterday for a consolidation type day. While I thought it possible that we might see a long-legged doji, due to a large range, that large range was all movement to the upside and no pullback to form the doji. That's left me feeling a little unsure as to whether I have a good feel for the market this week. Well, no, it's left me sure that I don't have a good feel for the market this week.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  12:21:48 PM
QQQ is testing the rising trendline connecting today's lows. A break below 36.60 targets 36.50, below which the 60 minute cycle downphase should at long last kick off. Above that level, I'll be very skeptical of the pullback.

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/28/20,  12:21:06 PM
Linda I think you are more valuable to us if you stay.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  12:20:22 PM
Maybe I should just leave for a few hours? That's seemed to get the markets moving lately.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  12:19:05 PM
Earlier, we saw higher highs on the Nasdaq, NDX, OEX and SPX, even if they were only slightly higher, but the Dow and the TRAN produced lower highs (so far). The TRAN has not confirmed its H&S. As it flattens at the appropriate right-shoulder level, it's balanced between Keltner support and Keltner resistance. So far, support looks a little stronger than resistance. That's a judgment call, however, as none of the Keltner lines are converging tightly. Could go either way for the TRAN.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  12:11:20 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Here's the NYSE NH/NL point and figure bullish % Link as of LAST NIGHT'S VALUES

The "f" are 5-day, while the X and O are the 10-day.

Here is the NASDAQ Comp. NH/NL chart Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  12:10:15 PM
The 30 min oscillator downphase is somehow still in progress, and the 60 min oscillators are in the first stages of a rollover from overbought territory. The trouble is that the price won't drop enough to confirm anything of this picture, and the 30 minute cycle has already blown half of its range. This could prove to be an extremely bullish sideways consolidation if 36.50 holds, and so far it hasn't even been tagged.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  12:02:49 PM
12:00 market watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  11:56:43 AM
Keep an eye on this formation on the TRAN's five-minute chart, a potential H&S complete with bearish price/MACD divergence: Link The TRAN has a habit lately of zooming up just when it appears to be on the verge of confirming a bearish formation, so watch for a refutation of this formation by a climb to a new high or for a confirmation of it by a drop below 3438. We're watching the TRAN because it's been a helpful indicator index lately. Like any indicator, however, it's not an indicator we can use to market-time other indices' likely behavior, but rather just one tool among many.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/28/20,  11:48:54 AM
Annotated NDX chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  11:45:29 AM
The OEX's 50-dma is at 538.24. This is also the approximate location of the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the October high to the October low. As I said yesterday, I don't know why I keep listing potential resistance levels because the OEX keeps slicing through them all, but at some point one of these is going to matter.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  11:42:21 AM
Bullish day trade long alert .... for JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.11 -11.39% here, stop $3.04 to begin, target $3.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  11:41:25 AM
Slightly higher high on the OEX, but bearish divergence on the three-to-five-minute charts. Not on the one-minute, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  11:39:04 AM
The 36.94 high just printed represents a double top for QQQ against yesterday's highs. It also represents a dismal failure for 30 minute cycle bears, with no material drop despite a downphase all morning. That downphase is stalled, and if price doesn't get below 36.60 in a hurry, a new upphase will replace it. Both it and the still-cresting 60 minute cycle channel have resistance at 37.00 QQQ now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  11:35:03 AM
A resource for China securities at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  11:25:18 AM
Bulls are trying for a higher bounce here and the bullish triangle interpretation- a break above 36.85 should be good for a quick test of 36.95 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  11:24:36 AM
TRIN is way too low for a bearish tenor, but if we're going by the TRAN's action, then it's leading the indices lower over the short-term. It's at 3445, testing mid-channel support on the five-minute Keltner channel. The TRAN sometimes is a good indicator index for the others.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  11:20:05 AM
A second high at 36.85 for QQQ- this is developing into either a rectangle between 36.57-.85, or a triangle depending on whether this pullback bounces above or below the previous low of 36.60. Neutral in the first case, bullish in the second. A break below 36.50 is the only bearish possibility I see from here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  11:13:16 AM
The OEX's three-minute chart shows support gathering at 535.92.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   10/28/20,  11:09:35 AM
Annotated Intel chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  11:09:04 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  11:03:13 AM
The OEX began moving up while I prepared that last post. Bulls want to see a new high; bears don't.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  11:02:55 AM
10:57 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  11:02:30 AM
You know it's one of those days when you turn to the three-minute chart to watch the "action." That chart shows that the OEX broke out of its bull flag, but it was a sideways break. Nothing much is happening since that break. This is the kind of day that I expected yesterday, but I was so off target yesterday--although I might have modified my view as the day progressed if I'd been watching the action as it happened--that I'm gun-shy about making pronouncements today. I'm watching the currency markets, too, especially the dollar against the yen, and there are some potentially bearish signs relating to the dollar's performance. There's been a correlation between the dollar's performance and equities' performance this week, although it's not exact. The dollar keeps flirting with a short-term breakdown (Perhaps indicating heaviness in equities, too?), but it's managed to avoid that breakdown all morning and is trending sideways now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  10:51:51 AM
The short cycle downphase is stalled now as a result of the wavelet cycle strength. This is very bullish action within the 36.50-.90 range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:48:03 AM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $51.80 -1.25% (30-minute delayed) chart at this Link on 5-minute interval (daily/weekly pivots).

Holds daily S1 and our "yellow zone" of support.

Still... I think marginal weakness in equities may be pre-election jitters, but that's it. Oil's abatement an underlying positive.

Here's a $0.25 box-size chart of $WTIC, where the 25-cent box size would be the more conventional size used. I just couldn't fit this tall of a chart in the Index Trader Wrap. Link

Bulls didn't let it give the double-bottom sell signal though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  10:46:16 AM
The wavelet upphase is strengthening now for QQQ above the earlier 36.60 low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  10:43:41 AM
Session low for ER futures here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  10:40:23 AM
The OEX remains within the possible bull flag. Bears would feel more comfortable if there was an upside breakout, but then a lower high, or if there's a breakdown out of the flag. Bulls will feel more comfortable if there's an upside breakout and a higher high, but I actually think further upside gains should be limited.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:35:31 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 410.05 -0.2% after kiss of DAILY R1

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:34:55 AM
Looking like a "defensive" election trade unfolding.

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up just 0.8 bp now at 4.095%. Traded high yield of 4.120%. Couldn't quite get above the correlation in the matrix.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/28/20,  10:30:28 AM
Natural Gas Storage Report = +26 Bcf, (last 3,223 Bcf)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  10:29:55 AM
There's a nominally higher low on the last dip to 36.60 QQQ, and both the 30 min and short cycle downphases are very weak so far. I expect either a break below 36.50 or above 36.90 to be directional.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  10:28:32 AM
The OEX's pullback takes the form of a potential bull flag. Keltner resistance attempts to gather overhead, however, although it hasn't quite firmed up yet. If the OEX should rise quickly, it could get through that resistance, but if the OEX dips further or consolidates longer, the Keltner resistance could firm somewhere between 536.50-536.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:28:03 AM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.12 -11.11% ... hit lower after reporting wider than expected loss.

While revenues jumped to $194.5 million and fourth consecutive quarterly increase from $147.4 million in year-ago quarter, JDSU said it lost $36 million or 2 cents per share versus $28.1 million ($-0.02 per share) in same quarter last year.

Non-GAAP basis was net loss of $14.1 or $-0.01 per share.

Consensus was for loss of $0.01 per share.

CEO saying optical market still in "healing stage."

Needham and Co. analyst somewhat upbeat saying "It's understandable to see quarters with rapid sequential growth followed by a quarter with a sequential decline."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  10:23:43 AM
TRIN remains neutral. TRIN certainly hasn't been as useful lately as we'd like, has it been?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  10:19:13 AM
If yesterday's OEX high was the short-term high, something we don't know yet, the 38.2% retracement lies at about 532.12. Even strongly performing stocks or indices sometimes retrace 25-38.2% of the previous sharp movement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:16:37 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Current intra-day NH/NL 10-day ratio at 70% would be good enough for a 3-box reversal back higher where short-term (5-day) and intermediate term (10-day) bullish leadership back in control. We don't chart until the session is concluded.

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  10:09:12 AM
The OEX is still struggling with that 200-ema.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  10:08:58 AM
Bears have a failure below yesterday's high, but it's just a pause to refresh if they can't get QQQ at least back to the 36.57 low, and preferably below 36.50. This could still be chop within the 60 minute cycle as it turns. if price doesn't drop, it will mean a much steeper than usual daily cycle upphase currently in progress.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:04:59 AM
Bidder up ... Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.89 +0.61% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:03:11 AM
Bema Gold (BGO) $2.99 ... should be closed out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  10:02:18 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  10:01:46 AM
The OEX tests the 200-ema. Perhaps having difficulty staying above it.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/28/20,  10:00:01 AM
Help Wanted Index = 36 ,(last 37)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  9:59:54 AM
The Fed has just added 16.25B in various repos, with 13.75B expiring. Net add 2.5B for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  9:57:24 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 415.76 +1.18% ... AMD +3.2%, BRCM +2.16%, NSM +2.03%, TXN +1.78%

LSI -5.25%, MOT -0.28%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  9:57:19 AM
The current bounce has yet to challenge the 30 minute cycle channel, which has resistance at 36.95. A break above that level for longer than 10 minutes will whipsaw the downphasing 30 minute cycle back up. Amazing strength up here so far, with a higher low at 36.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  9:56:34 AM
VIX.X 15.85 +0.82% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows ... 15.17, 15.45, Piv=15.99 , 16.27, 16.81.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:52:55 AM
The OEX rises to retest its 200-ema. Not there yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  9:52:45 AM
Bearish day trade close out alert ... let's cover the Bema Gold (BGO) $3.00 -2% short here at $3.00.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.08 -0.43% (30-minute delayed).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:51:37 AM
The GHA has risen to test the top of its gap lower this morning. The GSO has not yet risen back into the gap. The SOX, of course, just steams higher. I'm wondering how the Nasdaq will perform today with this disconnect in these sectors.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:48:00 AM
The TRIN has been dropping like a stone, too, (trying to rise again) although Jane has taught us to disregard the action over the first few minutes. The OEX has rolled down below the 200-ema, but we saw a similar rolling-down yesterday morning before that zoom higher, and then the TRIN was at least temporarily backing a bearish play then, evidence we don't have now. The OEX is only barely below the breakout level on its 7-minute chart, rising immediately to retest it, although there was certain and sustained bearish divergence on that chart through most of yesterday. I've been wrong now for two days, and so I don't trust my judgment about market direction, but here's what I see: If, on this first retracement of the day, the OEX can't sustain a movement over the 200-ema at 537.24, there's danger (but not proof) of a rollover down to test 534. That's based solely on Keltner and MA analysis, and TRIN doesn't yet support that thesis. I've admitted that I don't have a good handle on the market over the last two days, so take this information with that admission in mind.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  9:40:48 AM
Gold has recovered the bulk of its losses, down .30 at 425.50 currently, with HUI -1.35% at 229.02 and XAU -1.42% at 101.73 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:39:07 AM
The TRAN drops like a stone toward the downside target of that small H&S. Hasn't quite reached it but is within a few points now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:37:17 AM
The GHA, the GSTI Hardware Index, and GSO, the GSTI Software Index, each gapped lower this morning and now are rising to try to close those gaps. No, erase that, they're both beginning to drop again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:35:03 AM
The TRAN dropped below the confirmation level of the small topping H&S formation at the top of its climb yesterday. The downside target, if met, would be about 3457. Currently the TRAN is at 3468.88, bouncing from the breakout level on its five-minute chart, a chart that appears to have some relevance for the TRAN.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:31:49 AM
The OEX opens and drops toward the breakout level on the seven-minute channel, with that level at 536.30. Bulls want to see seven-minute closes above that level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  9:21:18 AM
A 30 minute cycle downphase is in progress for QQQ, with the cycle channel ticking lower. The 60 minute cycle is also flatttening, giving us a higher likelihood that this 30 minute downphase won't whipsaw again as it has been doing for the past 2 days. 36.50 is key support under this pullback- cautious bears will want to see that level broken at a minimum to confirm this cycle picture.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  9:08:46 AM
Overseas markets performed well in the overnight markets, but our futures haven't been responding positively. Is this just natural hesitation after yesterday's gains? Probably, but that action certainly has me watchful this morning. I said this yesterday and was about as wrong as it's possible to be, but I would expect a choppy, difficult-to-trade consolidation day along through here, and yesterday's approach to the 200-ema, 50-dma, 30-dma, and historical support/resistance would make a good place to hesitate. I wouldn't be surprised to see a push up toward 540-541, but I'd be surprised to see the OEX climb much higher than that before pulling back and retesting support. That's particularly true with news beginning to circulate that China may be about to raise interest rates.

Without that retest of support and with such presumed strong resistance just overhead, I wouldn't feel good about suggesting new bullish entries at this point, although Jane's excellent Wrap last night almost convinces me to be all-out bullish. Still, the OEX has not yet broken out of its descending regression channel or been able to maintain closes above its 200-dma or reached a higher swing high through that rising regression channel, so the presumption, perhaps soon to be proven wrong, has to be that the trend (down since January) will be maintained. That means a downturn should be expected somewhere below October's high. OEX 540-542 might be a likely zone, with the OEX then moving into a congestion zone just above that, up to the 200-sma at 546.56 and then to October's high.

I'm not all-out bearish here, either. If the OEX can reach a higher swing high and break out of that long-term descending regression channel, I'll be cheered. It's always a more cheerful day when CNBC commentators speak in animated voices in the background, everyone happy. As election day approaches, though, the growing uncertainty about the markets and this new information about China may mean that we'll put in one or two of those choppy, difficult-to-trade consolidation days. Be careful.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  8:37:08 AM
Equities and bonds have barely reacted to the data, all unchanged from their pre-data levels. QQQ is -.06 at 36.66 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  8:36:30 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 20,000 TO 350,000

8:30am U.S. 4-WK AVG. CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL TO 3-YEAR LOW

8:30am NO SPECIAL FACTORS BEHIND RISE IN CLAIMS: LABOR DEPT.

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2.2%

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 38K TO 2.82M

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  8:25:21 AM
We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 335K, and the help wanted index at 10AM, est. 37.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/28/20,  8:20:12 AM
Equities are lower, with YM trading 9969, ES 1121.75, NQ 1476 and QQQ -.09 at 36.63. Ten year notes are down .062 at 113.03, gold -2.9 at 422.90, silver -.05 at 7.154 and crude oil is -.55 at 51.90.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/28/20,  7:11:36 AM
Good morning. Despite a disappointing production number, the Nikkei climbed 1.51% in overnight trading. Lower crude and a firming dollar helped Asian and European bourses, with the focus also on reporting companies. As of 7:02 EST, gold was down $2.60 and crude, $0.78. However, our equity futures did not respond to those gains in other bourses, but instead oscillated around yesterday's closing levels, with all currently slightly below those closing levels. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher by more than 100 points Thursday morning, helping by a strengthening dollar and weakening crude prices. Climbing until a 40-point sell-off in the late afternoon, the Nikkei closed 161.17 points or 1.51% higher, at 10,853.12. Exporters gained. That included automakers, also helped by Honda's earnings report and raised full-year profit forecast.

However, all was not wonderful. Government figures showed September's industrial production dropping 0.7%, a downside surprise. NEC Electronics trimmed its full-year forecast due to concerns about demand for chips needed in LCD's and mobile phones.

Most other Asian markets posted gains. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.79%, with United Microelectronics rising 2.6% after its earnings report and optimistic outlook for Q4 capacity use. South Korea's Hyundai Motor reported a 49% increase in Q3 net profit, and climbed 2.1%. The Kospi rose 2.92%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 1.48%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 2.14%. China's Shanghai Composite was down 0.08%.

Currently, most European bourses post gains, too, with airline stocks rebounding. Attention focuses on earnings reports, with those from France Telecom, Alcatel and Renault being well received. Oil majors turn in mixed performances. Investors like the idea of Royal Dutch and Shelling Trading and Transport combining into a singly listed company.

Here, too, not all news was good. Altana announced that U.S. approval of its respiratory drug Roflumilast would be delayed. The German company had expected approval in the first half of 2005. The stock fell 4.7%.

As of 7:02 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 15.50 points or 0.33%, to trade at 4,645.60. The CAC 40 had gained 34.78 points or 0.95%, to trade at 3,713.17. The DAX had gained 32.15 points or 0.82%, to trade at 3,961.18.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:23:14 PM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $51.85 -1.16% ... down 61 cents. Overnight low here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:44:56 PM
A bullish theme among the brokers? .... GS Link , LEH Link , MER Link

MER gives a reversing higher point and figure buy signal today.

Here's Dorsey/Wright's Wall Street Bullish % (BPWALL) chart Link , where this sector turned "bull confirmed" at 44% in early September (blue 9)

C'mon Morgan Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/27/20,  8:06:44 PM
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