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  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  7:56:59 PM
Oct-Dec 2003 MONTHLY Pivot Matrix at this Link

Last year, a bull would have done well to buy a NOVEMBER pullback at the MONTHLY Pivot, stop below MONTHLY S1.

Here is the past two month's Pivot Matrix at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  6:48:52 PM
Turn your clock back an hour! Don't forget to turn your clock back one hour this weekend as daylight savings time ends.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  6:47:45 PM
Pivot Matrix at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  5:20:33 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

October's average daily volume for the NYSE was 1.50 billion shares, up 17% from September. NASDAQ's average daily volume was 1.72 billion shares, up 15% from September

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  4:14:46 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Open orders to close the PAYX Nov. $30 puts (PQX-WF) at $0.05, and the SHY Dec. $82 puts (SHY-XD) at $0.60.

This week's CLOSED trade tabulation at this Link

October's CLOSED trade tabulation at this Link

Observations .... Is it me, or have you noticed this too.... Don't buy a near month call at $0.80-0.90 per contract. Sell it.

Don't buy a near month put at $0.80-$0.90, sell it.

See the "mistake" in the PFE-WY? I sold that put at $0.40, then bought it back at $0.85?

This week, at its darkest moment, the IP Nov. $37.50 puts were trading $0.85. I didn't buy them back.

I've seen more than just these two examples, but more in the NYSE listed stocks.

See those SMH Nov $32.5 calls (SMH-KZ)? Buggers making me a little jittery, but this week I had to buy some more calls, which I don't mind doing toward the ende of the year. Think about how these observations can impact the VIX.X and VXN.X. Think about the levels of near-term resistance we're at, and what the VIX.X implications could be should we get the break higher.

While I'm buying SMH calls to offset the selling of calls, we know that institutions tend to sell calls/puts for premiums, and deal more directly with stocks. Heck, could be a bunch of institutions buying SMH or semiconductor stocks to offset previously written covered calls that are now starting to become a loser. Once they (institutions) build the position in the equity, they could come in with ferocity and buy back the calls for a loss, yet handsome gains unfold in the underlying equities.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  4:04:39 PM
PAYX Nov. $30 Puts (PQX-WF) update alert ... I'm going to have to keep this order OPEN, good until canceled. I don't see any trades at $0.05.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:56:07 PM
Here's what I see on the OEX's daily chart going into the close: Link The OEX may be completing a H&S, but there's a mixture of bullish and bearish chart characteristics here, leaving that conclusion in much doubt.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:54:35 PM
Swing trade close out PAYX Nov. $30 puts (PQX-WF) alert Let's close out the PAYX NOV. $30 Put (PQX-WF) for $0.05 per contract.

Looks like Pacific has an offer at $0.05.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:52:59 PM
Paychex (PAYX) $32.81 -0.57% ... Here's what I'm going to do with PAYX.

Let's close out the Nov. $30 puts (PQX-WF) that we sold for $0.45 here at $0.05.

My thinking is this. If we get a dip lower early next week, then that may allow another opportunity to sell these same puts again, or just close out the Dec. $30 puts (PQX-XF) that we're long in the MM Profile portfolio.

Franks question from 03:41:47 gave me this thought.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:48:10 PM
I agree with Mark's 15:40 post on the Futures side about forgetting about technical analysis the last few minutes of the trading day today. Nevertheless, I'll keep reporting on what I see. Smile.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:46:24 PM
The TRAN is jammed up beneath Keltner resistance. If that resistance is going to stop it, now is the time. It's right underneath 3500.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:43:04 PM
The OEX challenges the descending trendline off the 10:00 high.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:42:36 PM
Look at that bugger ... DAL $5.59 now.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:41:47 PM
Question ... Hi Jeff, I monitor equity p/c and index p/c ratios and it seems that the index ratio is usually more bearish (+1.0) while the equity ratio more bullish (>.7),at least the last couple of weeks...your thoughts? Thanks Frank

I don't know for certain Frank, other than to think....

Indices have been a rather tough trade and ahead of the election, play these "slower moving" a little more bearish.

And with stocks rather choppy, play those a little more bullish, perhaps selling some out the money near-month puts, may be some covered calls, with a more bullish intention of getting long should the election unfold with a Bush victory (things stay the way they are, some certainty).

  Jim Brown   10/29/20,  3:41:01 PM
Alert - Fox news is reporting that the new Al-Jazeera tape has warnings of US attacks on the elections.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  3:40:25 PM
This relentless drift is causing the first upticks in the 30 min cycle oscillators for NQ futures as the 30 min QQQ channel moves up (counter to the 60 min cycle). At this point, a break above 37.10 or below 36.60 should be directional, based on the ambiguity of these 2 key intraday cycles.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  3:40:25 PM
This relentless drift is causing the first upticks in the 30 min cycle oscillators for NQ futures as the 30 min QQQ channel moves up (counter to the 60 min cycle). At this point, a break above 37.10 or below 36.60 should be directional, based on the ambiguity of these 2 key intraday cycles.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:35:26 PM
These averages might help us gauge the OEX's strength or weakness into the close today, as the OEX appears to be have bouncing from them, but bouncing more weakly each time: Link Bears want to see these averages fail to provide support: bears want the opposite.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:34:51 PM
Bullish day trade cancel order alert ... for Delta (DAL) $5.52 -3.49% ...

  Jim Brown   10/29/20,  3:34:12 PM
Dow close over 10031 needed for Bush. According to statistics if Oct is off by more than 0.5% the incumbent never won. I calculated that last night that they have to bring the close to 10031 for 0.5%. Day end rally to that level? Jamil

Jamil, I was going to do the math this afternoon myself and got distracted. Odds are good the big money will be watching that level.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:28:44 PM
The dollar is dropping against the yen again.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  3:21:47 PM
This range feels like the op-ex tractor beam, with QQQ held within a 10 cent range that started just as the short cycle oscillators were threatening to roll over.

  Jim Brown   10/29/20,  3:19:36 PM
GOOG actually trading lower for a change. Two weeks left until the next lockup arrives.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:14:15 PM
The TRAN couldn't best its previous high, but it's not going much of anywhere to the downside, either. It's showing strong Keltner-style bearish divergence on the five-minute chart, though, looking as if it needs to retrace to the mid-channel level at 3472 or even to the lower channel level, at 3448. I don't necessarily think that will happen today, but it's looking over-extended, Keltner wise.

  Jim Brown   10/29/20,  3:11:20 PM
New Osama Bin Laden tape to air on Al Jazera shortly. Supposedly he explains his reasoning behind the 9/11 attack and warns of a new and bigger attack ahead.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:05:58 PM
Day trade long alert ..... for Delta Air (DAL) $5.31 -6.5% ....

Stick a bid out at $5.26, stop $5.18, then target a bounce back to $5.60.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:04:32 PM
What the heck.....

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:04:30 PM
The TRAN is inching up again, but those five-minute candles are pretty small by TRAN standards.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:03:47 PM
03:00 Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:58:26 PM
They're pulling bids on DAL aren't they? I thought this "might" happen, but boy I'd be closing out at this original target.

Funny how stuff happens at the top of the hour when the updates are due to be written.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  2:57:03 PM
The Nymex close didn't appear to greatly affect the TRAN today. The TRAN did inch up into an equal high, but it's still having trouble punching above 3500. It's at 3596.15 as I type.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:54:53 PM
Bearish day trade close out alert .... for Delta Air (DAL) $5.60 -2.09% .... should be filled out.

I'm most likely done for the day. I need to re-load my QCharts something has gone wrong where alerts and portfolio tracker isn't working today. I "fixed" some things on my computer last night and think I did something wrong.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:53:50 PM
3,000 at $5.62 ...

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:53:27 PM
There's 300 shares at the bid of $5.62

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  2:52:59 PM
Over the last hour, the USD was testing a low of 105.80 against the yen, match the low from last night. If the equal low holds up and the dollar can move up against the yen, at least a little, that might relieve some pressure off the equities, too. However, it's far from certain that the dollar can strengthen appreciably.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:52:18 PM
Bearish day trade stick your bid out there alert ... place your closing bid out there at $5.62.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:47:21 PM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,126.45 -0.07% .... pegged at WEEKLY R2

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:46:38 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,006 +0.02% ... pegged at WEEKLY R1

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  2:46:33 PM
So far, we have the doji I expected to see on the OEX's daily chart for today, but I expected that lower shadow to be a little longer. If the OEX ends today near the current level, both bulls and bears are going to be left with as many questions as they had coming into today's trading, but a doji at the top of a climb is a warning sign for bulls to pay attention. I'm getting ahead of myself, though, because the day is far from over.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:44:26 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 5.1 bp and session low at 4.029%. Looking a little defensive ...

A "gravitate toward the weekly pivot" may be in play .

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:43:05 PM
Session high for ZN bonds here, TNX -4.9 bps or 1.2% at 4.031%.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  2:41:26 PM
I'm back, but see that the OEX hasn't gone much of anywhere while I was gone, not even far enough to test the confirmation level of its potential double-top formation, much less either confirm or refute it. TRIN and advdec patterns aren't giving much direction, either.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:38:53 PM
One of those 2.5M-QQQ-shares-100-ticks buy programs just wnet off. QQQ is just holding at 36.80. The short and 30 min cycle channels are now stalled, moving sideways.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:35:55 PM
VIX.X 15.81 +2.72% ... has moved up to DAILY R1 .. intra-day chart at this Link

TRIN 1.06 here.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:31:27 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... for Delta Air (DAL) $5.68 -0.69% .... to $5.76.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:20:23 PM
QQQ's bouncing from 36.78, now back above 36.80. The short cycle still hasn't rolled over.

  Jim Brown   10/29/20,  2:16:31 PM
Speech by Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.
Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Theory and Application Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:12:47 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:04:52 PM
The QQQ short cycle upphase is stalling, at long last. A move below 36.80 for 2-3 minutes should kick off a new short cycle downphase.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:02:59 PM
02:00 Watch at this Link

  Jim Brown   10/29/20,  2:01:36 PM
Fed Ferguson saying economy and hiring remains subdued but economy is out of the soft patch BUT he sees valid reasons for a continued rise in rates.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  1:52:25 PM
Session high for silver futures here at 7.33, +1.99% today. Nymex crude is currently up .35 at 51.275, +.69%. Euro futures are also printing session highs here. Note the CDN dollar futures at 82.01. The Bank of Canada, under David Dodge's dubious leadership, raised the overnight rate last week or the week before. Given that the US is far and away Canada's largest trading partner/importer, and given that CDN:USD is at a more than 11 year high, Dodge's move and its timing is, once again, completely baffling.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  1:48:35 PM
There's a slight uptick in the 30 min cycle channels not picked up in the oscillators for QQQ as the short cycle upphase continues to extend below 37.00. Price is now hugging the declining 7200-tick SMA at 36.88. A move below 36.80 will stall the short cycle upphase and should, after 2-3 minutes' delay, begin to roll the listless oscillators back down, targeting 36.70 support.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  1:29:52 PM
Dec. gold is printing a session high right here approaching the Comex close- currently 429.70, +3.10.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  1:15:45 PM
The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators remain in their synchronous downphases, but the short cycle upphase that lauched just after 11AM is running the clock. Provided that QQQ stays south of 37, it should remain a short cycle correction within these broader downphases, but it could go either way. Don't forget those daily cycle upphases that launched this week. The short cycle bounce is so far very weak, and I believe that we'll be revisiting the day lows today, just 16 cents away currently. A break above 37, however, could have staying power because of the daily cycle upphase, and I'll have to reevaluate if QQQ makes it there.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  1:09:15 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  1:01:53 PM
Bearish day trade raise target alert ... for Delta Air (DAL) $5.76 +0.69% ... "no way" is this one going to trade $5.52 today.

Let's raise the bearish target to $5.62

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:57:42 PM
TRIN 0.98 ... either side of 1.0, but session high found resistance right at DAILY Pivot.

I get feeling computers in control, no real human interaction, and we're going to be stuck here. If any action, most likely last hour of trade.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:55:16 PM
12:50 market watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:45:23 PM
@Road Inc (ARDI) $6.69 +48% ... never heard of this one, but percentage gainer at the NASDAQ.

Dow component SBC (SBC) $25.48 +0.51% selected AtRoad to provide mobile resource management solutions for up to 35,000 SBC field service techs.

Raymond James has heard of them and upgraded two notches to "outperform" from "underperform."

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:42:49 PM
VIX.X 15.60 +1.36% ... DAILY Pivot here and session high.

but 10-year yield ($TNX.X) is edging just above DAILY S1.

SPX 1,126.03 -0.12% ... flat as a pancake.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:30:25 PM
Delta Air (DAL) $5.76 +0.69% .... hmmm.... I see DAL traded $5.80, a penny above my day trader's stop, yet my QCharts alert didn't sound.

For those still long as the stock did edge up into that "zone" of resistance, lets adjust the stop to $5.81. Continue to target $5.52, but I have sneaky feeling that today's close is going to be $5.70, which is at the apex of the "P" from yesterday.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:26:34 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 4.043% and DAILY S1. Did see session low of 4.033%.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  12:21:28 PM
I have to leave for an appointment, but hope to return in about an hour. Over the last three days, this has been a signal for the markets to move. I'm still considering the possibility that the OEX could trade in a choppy fashion today, so be ready to take any offered profits early if necessary.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:18:24 PM
Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 (MSH.X) 457.38 -0.27% ... still battles that 50% retracement at 458.78.

Most actives today are MSFT $27.95 -0.21%, CSCO $19.15 +1.07%, LU $3.57 -0.27%, INTC $22.18 +0.04% and AMAT $15.97 -1.41% ...

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  12:18:20 PM
The OEX continues to trade sideways. So does the TRAN, as it approaches the apex of its symmetrical triangle. Keltner resistance firms over the TRAN's current position, looking allllmost strong enough to hold, but the TRAN just drives through any resistance that's not solid, so I'd like to see it a little firmer before I stated that it was going to hold.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:09:48 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  12:08:53 PM
Stepping away for an appointment- back in 1 hour.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  12:03:52 PM
The OEX's pattern may be morphing yet again: this time into a potential bearish right triangle with a horizontal supporting line near 538.43, and with a descending top. Of course, that requires that the OEX not reach a higher high to keep this potential formation in play. It's just that kind of day so far. I have to leave for an appointment in about 15 minutes, so maybe that will get things going for you. It's worked three days in a row.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:01:59 PM
12:00 Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:57:45 AM
It's back up now.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:56:37 AM
Careful, all. The east coast IB server has just gone down. No data at my end.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:52:40 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $41.60 +3.07% .... trying to pop back today. Never did see any news to explain yesterday afternoons sudden and mysterious decline.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:51:57 AM
OEX Keltner support at 537-12.-537.60 may be strong enough to produce a bounce when first tested. If the OEX should drive down through that support instead, 534-535 may be tested.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:45:08 AM
Bush futures .... excellent conversation on CNBC just a minute ago regarding the theory that somebody is trying to manipulate the Bush futures contract lower, to sway the outcome of this year's election.

I've always felt that at times, stocks will be "manipulated" to try and influence investor psychology toward the stock. Sudden and mysterious trade action as a stock undercuts a level of support, maybe be 5 cents, only to trigger bullish stops before the big move back higher.

Some are unsuccesful, like trying to drive a stock lower in the last hour of trade to tirgger a stop in an option at $2.00. But defenders of the stock at $40.00 drive it back higher.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:44:16 AM
We haven't talked much about the BIX lately, but it's intraday chart looks remarkably like the OEX's, with a steep climb, a potential double-top formation, but a trailing-sideways resistance to confirming that double-top formation. Maybe watch the BIX, too, to predict or confirm a movement in the OEX?

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:40:08 AM
The TRAN has just widened into a bigger symmetrical triangle, with candles now testing the bottom support of that triangle. Guess this morning is going to be one of those morphing kind of times, but I'm not particularly surprised. I do, think, however, that if one side finally does gain over the other, a movement could be swift.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:33:29 AM
A wavelet bounce is in progress against the bottomy short cycle downphase, launched by that generous buy program of almost 3M QQQ shares within 100 ticks. A bounce here should fail beneath 37.10 to confirm the 30 min cycle downphase, assuming it makes it that far. We've been seeing a lot of trending action from the short cycle this week, and an oversold trending move wouldn't be out of line today.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:27:37 AM
No, the OEX rose first to test Keltner resistance rather than dropping first to test the confirmation level. (See my 11:16 post.)

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:19:38 AM
The TRAN broke to the downside below that symmetrical triangle that it was building on the top of its climb, but it hasn't dropped far. I'm always skeptical of a trendline break when there's an immediate sideways trading pattern, as happened here. It's possible the TRAN will rise to retest Keltner resistance from 3488-3491, although that resistance now looks strong enough to hold.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:18:29 AM
Bonds have continued their slow climb, with TNX down 2.8 bps, while QQQ continues is descent. 30 and 60 min channel supports are down to 36.60 now, yesterday's confluence support, above the maginot line of 36.50. Below 36.50, there should be a clear shot at 36.18-.20, but I don't expect 36.50 to fall easily.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:16:43 AM
The OEX inches down toward a test of the confirmation level for its double-top formation--just doesn't want to go there, does it? Keltner evidence now suggests both that the OEX is likely to find resistance at 539.10 and that it's likely to test 536.96-537.65, but doesn't suggest in which order those two will occur. That means that the OEX could drop down quickly to test the 537 zone, confirming the double-top and then bounce right back up to retest that confirmation level and 539.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:04:06 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:02:06 AM
The SOX slips just below its 100-ema, an average that has often played a part in the SOX's trading pattern over the last couple of weeks. That average is at 408.86, with the SOX at 408.42 as I type. Until the SOX retraces (and sustains values below) 50% of Wednesday's tall white candle, however, the action isn't particularly bearish.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:00:50 AM
Session low for NQ and QQQ here. 30 and 60 min channel support are down to 36.68, but should continue to drop. The lower high below 37 should close the door on bulls for the next few hours at least, as the 30 and 60 min cycle downphases play out.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:58:50 AM
The TRAN coils into a symmetrical triangle at the top of its climb, as seen on the five-minute chart.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:52:27 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) showing some gyrations.... now back down 2.2 bp after coming back to unchanged. So far, DAILY S1 has served yield support.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:51:02 AM
Marsh & McLennan (MMC) $27.36 -3.01% ... it too fell below DAILY S2 ($27.14) to session low of $26.80, but snaps back a bit. WEEKLY R1 $28.24, WEEKLY Pivot $26.04.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:49:53 AM
Double-top confirmation level about to be tested on the OEX.

I'm thinking that the OEX might dip, perhaps down to 534 but perhaps not even that low, and then bounce, producing that doji-type day. There have to be some bulls worried about hanging onto longs with the confusion now about likely election results. There have to be other bulls looking for a dip on which to go long ahead of the elections. There have to be some shorts looking for any dip to get out.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:49:17 AM
Hartford (HIG) $57.95 -1.25% ... slips below DAILY S2. WEEKLY R2 at $56.88.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:46:21 AM
Delta Air (DAL) ... day trader's chart at this Link with QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels and a lower 5-MRT.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:42:11 AM
The OEX has so far resisted confirming that double-top pattern, but Keltner evidence suggests that it will at least test that confirmation level.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:39:16 AM
There's a steep bearish divergence on the 30 min NQ chart Link that confirmed on the last drop. It's not visible on QQQ because my provider doesn't serve pre- and post-market QQQ charting data. Provided that QQQ stays below 37.20, this divergence should be good for another strong attempt on the 36.80 low, and should set up a retest of 36.50 support thereafter.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:36:08 AM
Delta (DAL) $5.70

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:35:00 AM
Day trade short alert .... for Delta Air (DAL) $5.69 -0.69% here, stop $5.79 to begin, target $5.52.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:31:06 AM
Swing trade short setup alert .... for the QQQ $36.85 -0.27% ... on any bounce back to $37.18, stop $37.31, then would target DAILY Pivot, maybe DAILY S1 before the close in a "post-election-weekend" trade.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:27:39 AM
QQQ's bounce is on low volume so far, and has whipsawed only the little wavelet oscillator- not even the short cycles have yet registered the move. Short cycle channel resistnace is 37.00, and bulls need to get past that in order to turn the QQQ back up.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:27:07 AM
Simply missed the QQQ short at $37.20 at 10:00, and DAILY Pivot would have been my day trade target.

Might look for a bounce back near DAILY R1 with target back here.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:21:39 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:21:18 AM
I wouldn't be surprised to see another indecision-type candle for today, with a probe higher and a probe lower leaving both upper and lower candle shadows. This was my preferred scenario last night, but I wanted to wait until economic numbers were released before making too many decisions. Now, we're left with bulls and bears both thinking they're in the right, but both a bit wary about their conclusions. A doji or other similar candle seems entirely possible today. That means that bulls and bears alike might quickly take any profit offered or not give back too much on a reversal against them.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:20:39 AM
QQQ is approaching 30 and 60 min channel support between 36.70 and 36.75. This is a steeper drop than any we saw yesterday, but it's occurred too quickly to impact the channels yet. If price holds at or below 36.90 for another 5 mins, we'll see those channel supports begin to move lower.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:15:14 AM
Careful, OEX bulls. You don't want to see the OEX fall beneath 538 support, as that confirms the double-top formation. Careful, bears, too, though, because near 539 begins a known S/R level, backed up by several MA's.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:14:51 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:14:08 AM
Today, the OEX trades near the 10-week sma and 30-week sma. These are averages some traders watch. The 10-week crossed below the 30-week (bearish) in early July, and has not yet crossed back above it, but if the OEX blows through the top of that ascending regression channel and posts strong gains for a week or two, it could. Currently the 10-week is at 538.69 and the 30-week is at 540.89. Both are below the 50-week MA.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:12:55 AM
QQQ is testing 36.95 support now with the short cycle upphase now stalled but a new downphase not yet kicked off- give it another 2 minutes if price holds below 37. Silver is down .066 to a session low of 7.121, but XAU and HUI are still green.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:07:51 AM
The TRAN dropped toward the 3470-3480 potential support zone. It's at 3484.90 as I type, but reached a low of 3481.74. It's now facing Keltner resistance gathering just under 3490.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:04:00 AM
The OEX moved to a higher high, but five-minute closes have been at or below yesterday's high. A double-top remains a possibility, although I think direction is still up for grabs.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:03:58 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:56:27 AM
VIX.X 15.06 -2.14% ... DAILY Pivot levels as follows ... 14.94, 15.16, Piv=15.59 , 15.81, 16.24.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:55:48 AM
QQQ has given us its reversal back within the short, 30 and 60 min cycle bands- no wire-to-wire meltup just yet. Those bands have climbed to 37.18-.20 QQQ now, and will continue to rise so long as price doesn't fall back down. 37.08-.10 should now act as first support, followed by 37.02 and 36.95.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:53:48 AM
The Fed has drained net 1B by refunding yesterday's expiring 9.25B repo with an 8.25B weekend repo.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:53:11 AM
Chicago PMI due at 10AM.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:53:06 AM
The OEX did break above upper Keltner resistance on the 7-minute chart at the release of the UofM number, beating yesterday's high by $0.06. So far. Bulls don't want to see a downturn through 538, confirming a double-top formation. If that does occur, it may increase the possibility that the OEX would retrace down to 534, but be careful today.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:49:53 AM
The GHA, the GSTI Hardware Index, has just broken over the swing high from January. Time to pull back to form a handle for that potential cup-and-handle continuation pattern? Or is this a double-top in the making? Or will the GHA just charge higher, with the pullback from January itself a handle for the larger correction that took place through 2001-2004? The correction since January was just about an exact 38.2% retracement of the rally off the 2002 low. Lots of possibilities to watch for in this index that Tab G. exhorts us to watch, still charging higher as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:48:11 AM
QQQ is above all cycle channel bands now- if it's going to fail, it has to do so within the next 3-5 minutes. If not, then we'll be looking at another meltup.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:47:10 AM
Michigan sentiment 91.7.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:45:36 AM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 586.40 +0.13% ..... I'm going to work on a couple of things for this weekends "Ask the Analyst" column, where I've got some questions for myself on what to do here.

I'm going to do some relative strength work, look at some history, and see if value, growth or both is the way to play the seasonal bullish trend.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:42:17 AM
QQQ is approaching upper channel resistance and retesting yesterday's high, printing 37.12 as I type. A short cycle upphase is in progress and has room to run to the upside, but the 30/60 min channel limit should slow or stop the advance below 37.14.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:41:32 AM
The TRAN is just under 3500, at 3496.37. It's at a level last seen in July, 1999.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:40:53 AM
So far, the Keltner resistance is holding on the OEX's seven-minute chart, but I wouldn't be surprised to see volatility near the 8:45 release blow through it, no matter which way the number goes and which way the markets eventually do, too.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:39:16 AM
Personal savings rate = Subtract everything you spend money on (including mortgage payment, taxes, dinner for two, etc) from your income.

What's left over is the personal savings rate.

- Commerce Department's Bereau of Economic Analysis

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:39:08 AM
U-Mich sentiment due in 6 minutes.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:36:40 AM
The OEX tests that upper Keltner resistance now. As I mentioned in my last post last night, that resistance still slants higher, so it's possible that the OEX could continue to climb those lines. However, if resistance does hold and the OEX falls below 538.03, that will confirm a lower high on the five-minute chart.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:34:40 AM
Session highs across the board. 30 min and 60 min channel resistance line up at 37.13 QQQ, support also superimposed at 36.65.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:33:00 AM
A very good question. I do not.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:32:13 AM
Not much happening yet with the OEX. It opens slightly higher and turns slightly lower, but I would think it's likely to retest the 540-540.25 Keltner resistance level.

  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:31:36 AM
Jonathan ..... Do you know if home purchases are factored into the personal savings rate? Or is it just savings accounts that are used in deriving the personal savings rate?

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:29:31 AM
See my 8:26 post last night for the specifics of my outlook for today, but that outlook included some cautiousness ahead of this morning's economic numbers. We still have October's University of Michigan sentiment number at 9:45 and October's Chicago PMI at 10:00. I can present a strong bullish case and a strong bearish case, and I bet most of the rest of you could, too, based on various parameters, so I'd like to see how the early morning plays out before I make too many decisions. OEX 540-543 is a strong resistance zone and would make an ideal right-shoulder level for a H&S on the daily chart, so I would think that this zone would either limit gains or even turn the OEX lower again, but I'm open and watchful for other possibilities, too, given some of those bullish chart characteristics and the unknown effect of the looming election. Will bears or bulls most want out ahead of the election?

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  8:48:55 AM
From Marketwatch:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) – The U.S. economy grew at a less-than-expected 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter after growing 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were expecting gross domestic product to grow 4.3 percent. Consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent rate while business investment grew at a 11.7 percent rate. The core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized, the lowest in 42 years. Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent, and the personal savings rate fell to 0.4 percent, its lowest level since the Depression. [emphasis mine]

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  8:31:54 AM
TNX is down 2.2 bps at 4.055%, equities lower with QQQ -.11 at 36.85, gold up .40 at 426.70.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  8:31:03 AM



8:30am U.S. Q3 BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 11.7% VS. 12.5%

8:30am U.S. Q3 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 4.6% VS. 1.6%


  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  8:27:47 AM
Session lows for gold, euros and bonds all at once. It's either a big collective guess, or Da Boyz just got an advance peek at key government data ahead of the rest of us unwashed masses.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  8:22:45 AM
Consensus estimates for the chain deflator are 1.6%, ECI 1% and as Marc notes, GDP 4.3%. At 9:45, we get Michigan sentiment, est. 88 and at 10AM, Chicago PMI, est. 59.

  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  8:10:47 AM
Equities are mixed this morning, with ES trading 1127.75, NQ trading 1489, YM 9993 and QQQ down 2 cents to 36.94 as we await the 8:30AM employment report. Gold is up 70 cents to 427, silver 2.9 cents to a session high of 7.216, bonds +.015 to 113.2188 and Nymex crude +.275 to 51.20.

  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  6:53:32 AM
Good morning. As an after-effect of China's decision to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years, many Asian and European commodity-related stocks declined. Worries about the effects of that rate hike on export markets led the Nikkei lower. Other Asian and European bourses have produced mixed performances. Our futures have drifted sideways to slightly down, not responding much either direction. As of 6:44 EST, gold was up $0.60 and crude, $0.04. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped down Friday morning. The rest of the day, the Nikkei oscillated on either side of 10,750, closing at 10,771.42, down 81.70 points or 0.75%.

Commodity-related issues, especially steelmakers, led the decline, but exporters also fell. Exporters Sony and Canon declined despite reporting increasing quarterly profits Thursday. Disappointing outlooks by reporting companies NEC and Pioneer yesterday also dampened sentiment. NEC fell 3.6%.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, with commodity-related stocks falling throughout Asia. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.18, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.16%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.37%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.45%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.58%.

Currently, European bourses turn in mixed performances. As had happened throughout Asia, commodity-related stocks tended lower, with metals stock declining in the U.K. However, declining oil prices helped airline stocks. Morgan Stanley also aided sentiment in the sector, upgrading Deutsche Lufthansa to an overweight rating. Retailers Metro and Puma dropped, despite both reaffirming their sales outlooks and Puma raising its outlook for earnings growth for the full year. When firms were passing out upgrades and downgrades this morning, car manufacturer DaimlerChrysler collected a downgrade to a neutral rating from J.P. Morgan. Deutsche Bank cited a challenging business environment when reporting earnings that included declining net revenue.

As of 6:44 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 6.70 points or 0.14%, to 4,636.10. The CAC 40 had declined 4.53 points or 0.12%, to 3,717.29. The DAX had fallen 2.01 points or 0.05%, to 3,957.58.

  OI Technical Staff   10/28/20,  12:25:27 AM
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