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  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  6:02:17 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  5:08:25 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  4:53:21 PM
National Semiconductor (NSM) $16.69 -0.05% Link .... released for trade .... $15.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  4:44:19 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.57 +0.68% .... lower at $32.20 on NSM warning.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels as follows .... $29.97, $31.15, $31.96 $33.14, $33.95

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/1/200,  4:31:14 PM
NSM $16.69 -0.05% .... halted ... Warning after the close

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  4:11:52 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Day trade short Delta Airlines (DAL) at $5.48. Was stopped for a loss at $5.55. ($-0.07, or -1.28%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:59:46 PM
Lots of coiling around today. The OEX will end the day with a doji, a classic signal of indecision. Those with a bullish bias can be cheered because we got consolidation instead of a pullback. Those with a bearish bias can be cheered because we got consolidation right where a right shoulder might be expected to form for a potential H&S on the daily chart. Charts say there's reason for indecision and tomorrow's election provides more reason.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:50:28 PM
A continuation-form H&S on the OEX's one-minute chart has a downside target of about 539. The OEX hasn't reached that downside target and instead rises to retest the neckline, just above 540. We can't count on a pattern formed on a one-minute chart to meet its downside target, but this one does appear to have some validity as the descent accelerated once the neckline was breached.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:45:33 PM
The OEX is breaking below the support of the symmetrical triangle on its five-minute chart, but it's at next Keltner support, with that support extending down to 539.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:38:51 PM
I mentioned earlier that the OEX was coiling into another symmetricial triangle. That triangle's support is at about 539.98 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:35:03 PM
Unless something happens soon, the OEX is going to end the day with a doji, above supporting moving averages but below the 542 resistance and the further resistance above that. It will have preserved the possibility that it's forming a right shoulder for a H&S on the daily chart as well has preserving the possibility that it's consolidating sideways prior to another push higher.

It will have ended the day above its 200-ema on the daily chart and below that same average on the weekly one.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:31:50 PM
The OEX is coiling into another symmetrical triangle on its five-minute chart and is nearing the apex.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:24:21 PM
I will be gone tomorrow morning at the open for an appointment, but will return as soon as possible. I'll post my outlook this evening and will also try to complete the morning's report on Asia and Europe before I leave.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:22:23 PM
One benchmark that you might watch on the NDX and OEX is the 200-week ema. That average is at 1499.51 for the NDX and 542.30 for the OEX, and it capped the NDX's and OEX's advances last week. By contrast, the Nasdaq has been finding support the last month on its 200-ema.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  3:08:39 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:07:30 PM
The OEX appears to be finding support at the descending trendline off this morning's high, a trendline it broke above about 20 minutes ago, but it's slipping along that descending trendline, and 540.80 appears to be a problem. I'm not the only person out there that remembers 540.80 coming up time and time again across months of trading. At this point, I can't even remember what 540.80 represented--A Fib level? A moving average? A pivot, although I don't follow pivot analysis much? Whatever the number originally represented, it's burned in OEX traders' heads now.

While I typed, that support failed, and the OEX plunged back to midline support. 540.80 was too much for it, at least without reestablishing support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  3:03:16 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  3:00:17 PM
Today the BIX appeared to confirm a H&S pattern at the top of its climb, but then has since shot back above the neckline. It's above the tops of the two small shoulders, but below the head. It's one of those kinds of days.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  2:58:12 PM
The TRAN put in a double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart and has since moved past the confirmation level. The upside target would be somewhere near 3511, below the day's high, but the TRAN paused and pulled back into a possible bull flag to retest the broken resistance near 3500-3503. It's at 3505.09 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  2:52:06 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 414.86 +0.63% .... Daily interval chart with conventional (BLUE) retracement. MONTHLY Pivot levels updates, with "zones" of resistance/support updated. Some thoughts regarding Electioin day also. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  2:51:19 PM
The OEX is attempting an upside break, but it hasn't broken out above next Keltner resistance. As long as it continues to find support on the Keltner line currently located at 540.10, more upside seems possible.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  2:46:33 PM
QQQ is finally breaking back above 37.02, currently 37.05. A 30 minute cycle downphase is in progress in the NQ futures, clearly not getting much traction, but if it's valid then we need to see a high not exceeding the prior 37.18 high. This would fit with my earlier thought that the sideways chop was causing the prior upphase to turn.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  2:37:48 PM
Session high for R2K futures here, QQQ printing 37.03.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  2:34:14 PM
The OEX is squeezed tighter between nearest Keltner support, down to 539.10, and Keltner resistance, up to 540.23.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  2:33:43 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  2:27:33 PM
QQQ has stalled 5 cents below 37- not quite the lower low and quick retest of the session lows I was expecting. Volume is running light- feels like an op-ex afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  2:27:04 PM
Delta Air (DAL) $5.54 +1.65% .... should be stopped out/filled from bearish day trade short.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  2:24:31 PM
The OEX is at mid-channel support on its seven-minute Keltner chart. I'm honestly not sure how much relevance technical analysis has today, but bulls want the OEX hold here and then break above 540.30 and maintain levels above that. Keltner support looks minimally stronger than resistance, but the OEX keeps finding resistance at the first possible place, Keltner wise, at a Keltner line currently at 539.83. It needs to break that pattern of being pressured lower (on closes) by that Keltner line or else it's going to keep hammering at the Keltner support until it gives way, stronger or not. It looks as if there should be a breakout, either upside or downside, in the making, without a clear view as to which it will be.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  2:17:45 PM
Bearish day trade stop alert ... for Delta Air (DAL) $5.55

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  2:07:36 PM
And failing, back down to 36.96 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  2:06:50 PM
Delta Air (DAL) $5.50 +0.91% .... intra-day chart with DAILY Pivot levels and lower 5-MRT at this Link

Not shown are WEEKLY Pivot levels of $2.06, $3.74, Piv = $4.99 , $6.67, $7.92.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  2:06:34 PM
QQQ cracking 37.00 here, working on 37.02.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  2:05:27 PM
Whether in bullish or bearish plays today, be prepared to be stopped. Adhere to your stops.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  2:04:17 PM
The OEX fell below the ascending trendline off Thursday's last five-minute low, rose to test that trendline again and now is dropping again. Bears want to see a new low of the day to confirm that failure to break back above the trendline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  2:00:51 PM
The OEX is trying to hold onto Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, with that support at 539.51 currently, but if it can't hold onto that level on a 15-minute closing basis, it appears vulnerable to 536.88-537.75. It looks as if it's going to close this period above that Keltner level, but bulls next need to see 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 540.28.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:59:24 PM
That strong upside volume isn't as strong anymore on QQQ. A failure at this much lower high should be followed by an aggressive retest of 36.88 and 36.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:54:40 PM
I agree with Marc's admonition for shorts to be careful (13:49, Futures side), but would add the same admonition for bulls, too. Shorts should note the OEX's 50-dma just below today's low, converging with other important averages and historical S/R, but bulls should note the action in the internals as well as the historical S/R just over the OEX's current level, too. The OEX confirmed and met the downside target for a bearish formation. Somebody out there with more money than we all have might have already made a decision and be preparing to move the markets, but I could still balance bullish and bearish comments fairly evenly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:54:37 PM
Bears will be looking for a lower high below 37.15 QQQ, while a break of that level targets 37.18, followed by the 37.25 level, above which I'd expect a short covering meltup. So far, however, 37.00-.02 is holding.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  1:54:34 PM
Day trade short alert for Delta Air (DAL) $5.48 here, stop $5.55, target $5.22.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:51:30 PM
Here's the test of 37.00-.02 QQQ from below.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:51:25 PM
The OEX did meet the downside target of that H&S on the one-minute chart this morning. It exceeded that downside target by a few cents.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:45:05 PM
QQQ is trying for 37.00-.02 from below on rising volume. This will be an interesting test, because despite the solid volume on this attempt, there's strong resistance at that former support level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:44:47 PM
The TRAN dropped below 3500 in a steep drop, but is rising now to retest that level, at 3497.53 as I type.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/1/200,  1:41:45 PM
Linda I completely concur with your analysis - the internals are confusing but definitely turning bearish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:34:50 PM
TRIN has been generally moving higher since about 9:40 this morning. The advdec line has done a little bit of everything, climbing and declining, but it's been declining since about 11:25. The VIX climbed, fell, and now is attempting to climb again, while the VXO is still trying to steady. Although I'd need Jane's expertise to be sure, this paints a confused picture but one with a neutral-to-slightly-bearish tint. I think what the market intends to do makes more difference than what we see here, but we can at least make up our minds about whether any climb, if it occurs, is a healthy one or not, or if any decline, if it occurs, is supported by bearish breadth indicators.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:29:50 PM
At 47M shares so far, volume is running very light on QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:29:03 PM
Is the SOX rejecting a short-term possible bullish formation? Perhaps looks as if it is: Link The SOX verges on rejecting this continuation-form inverse H&S on its five-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:24:15 PM
The OEX is at an ascending trendline off Thursday's last five-minute low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:23:48 PM
QQQ has just lost 37.00 support. Look for that level to act as resistance now on the way to key 36.88 support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:23:27 PM
TRAN testing 3500 again, at 3503.76 as I type.

 
 
  Jim Fabyan   11/1/200,  1:20:17 PM
Well the Friday low in the 10 yr note was 113.03. That may be it for the market highs if notes move higher into 3 PM. They seem to be going in concert with oil.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:19:22 PM
Bearish divergence, Keltner style, has been confirmed on the OEX's five- and seven-minute charts, but remember that any type of bearish divergence provides only a warning, not proof of a decline. OEX 539.40 again looks like a possibility, but that mid-line Keltner level is rising, and may be higher before the OEX tests it.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/1/200,  1:17:39 PM
Merck as a dividend play
Every time I hear one of those analysts on CNBC say investors should not sell their MRK shares and keep holding it because it pays such a high dividend I get hostile. MRK pays $1.52 per year in dividends. It has already lost -$17 from the $45 level where it was trading before the VIOXX news. If you continued to hold it from here it would take 11+ years to recover the lost money on dividends alone.

That assumes two things. First that MRK does not move lower. Given the news out this morning that they knew about the risk all the way back to 1996/1997 the odds of a serious legal bill and class action award are very high. This suggests MRK will continue to trade down for the next couple years. In my editors play we are playing LEAP puts on MRK with a target of $20.

The second assumption these analysts are making is that MRK will continue to pay a 5% dividend of $1.52 a year. What is the first thing to get cut when the company if facing a large cash crisis? Yes, the dividend. It happens all the time. Companies get in trouble and slash the dividend to cover the shortfall.

This suggests anybody holding as the stock drops to $20 could then be surprised with a cancellation of the dividend and no way to recover the loss. I believe the analyst advice advocating this type of strategy is not only stupid but is bordering on criminal. MRK was a leading "widows and orphans" investment and these are the people that tend to be less sophisticated and follow advice blindly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:13:21 PM
QQQ is testing 37.00-.02 again after peaking at a slightly lower wavelet high. A stray tick- probably bad data, just slashed my chart to 37.82- lasted for under 3 seconds.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  1:11:04 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  1:06:42 PM
Bull flag pulling back from next resistance on the OEX? It's possible. Just about anything is. Be careful out there.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/1/200,  1:04:33 PM
The 1500 area presents a key resistance level to succumb for the NDX. The VXN continues to rise, but as I mentioned at the 8:16 post today I'm hesitant to say that a correction is 100% with the NASI and BPNDX giving a bullish bias. Take a look at the GHA & GSO along with the SMH all very bullish. I posted annotated charts earlier this morning. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  1:04:05 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  1:02:16 PM
QQQ is holding above 37.00-.02, consolidating today's gains. This could be the choppy drift within the turning 30 minute cycle oscillators, however, which continue to appear ready to roll from a lower oscillator and price high. A move below 36.88 would be necessary to confirm any weakness within last week's uptrend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  12:54:49 PM
The OEX has difficulty staying above the descending trendline off the day's high. It appears to be forming a descending regression channel off that day's high, but it's currently still trying to break to the upside through that channel's top resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  12:52:29 PM
As crude has risen, the 50-dma has often served as support, with the 100-sma usually holding if the 50-dma did not. The 50-dma is at $48.23, with crude at $49.75 as I type. Crude does not usually violate the previous swing high, or at least not by much or for long, so if the crude contract is going to continue its pattern, it will find support at or near August's swing high of $47.30, if not before. Until that swing high is violated (on a closing basis), perhaps for more than one day, or the 100-dma's support ($45.34) is broken on a closing basis, we can't really consider the rising trend broken.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  12:36:16 PM
The 30 minute cycle upphase is still in progress for QQQ, but it's tiring, with price so far failing to touch last week's high. Look for resistance from 37.18-.25 here, with support at 37.00-02. A break below 36.88 will be necessary to stall out the 30 min upphase, and if it lasts 10-15 minutes at or below that level, we should see a new downphase to replace it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  12:30:44 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  12:26:11 PM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $49.90 -3.59% (30-min delayed) .... I'm showing contract low of $49.30 finding some support at correlative DAILY S1 ($49.33) and WEEKLY S1 ($49.32).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  11:50:03 AM
The OEX tests the horizontal top of this morning's bullish right triangle on the five-minute chart, to see if that support will hold.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  11:42:21 AM
So far, the support at the top of this morning's bullish right triangle on the OEX's five-minute chart is holding.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  11:38:12 AM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $51.10 -1.17% (30-min delayed) .... updated 30-minute chart with WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

Selling really hit from the WEEKLY Pivot. WEEKLY S1 near-term support may tie in with our 10/27/04 Index Trader Wrap and PnF chart at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  11:31:43 AM
Crude oil is trading 49.775 here, up from a low of 49.625. There's support at 49, with stronger support at 45-46.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  11:30:31 AM
I don't have a strong bias upon which to trade today and find chart evidence mixed up, so I'm not suggesting plays either direction. For those who might have held their noses and plunged in long (to copy Keene's phrase from a Futures post earlier this morning), the OEX has now broken above the presumed bullish right triangle on its five-minute chart. It immediately hit next resistance (historical) beginning at about 542 and turned back, and bulls want to see that 541-ish support hold on the retest.

As a cautionary tale, I'm watching the dollar (in comparison to the yen) break to the downside and then to the upside and then back below a descending trendline this morning. In other words, it's zooming around a bit of everywhere, too.

My interpretation is that globally, there's a bit of indecision about what should happen to U.S. equities pre- and post-election. If the currency players can't decide, I don't know that I should be trying to force a decision, and so I'm not. Be careful, whether you're bullish or bearish, because the opposite side has just as much evidence for their case as you do for yours.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  11:17:31 AM
Now the OEX tests 541.36 high from last Thursday as well as this morning's 541.41 high, with the OEX at 541.25 as I type. It's jammed against Keltner resistance on the seven-minute chart, showing bearish divergence, Keltner-style, if it turns down from here. It's not getting slapped back as quickly this time, however. Remember historical resistance at 542 and just above that.

Taking stock, the OEX did confirm a short-term bearish formation--bearish--but did not (yet) reach the downside target--bullish.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  11:17:07 AM
Session lows for gold at 428.80, crude at 50 and high for Dow and ES futures at 10048 and 1132.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  11:10:29 AM
The TRAN is above 3500, at 3502.74 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  11:09:35 AM
And session low for 10-yr bond futures, TNX +3.1 bps at 4.06%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  11:08:21 AM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 50.90.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  11:07:59 AM
At this point the 30 minute cycle oscillators for QQQ are chopped up, a rare event. A 300 minute stochastic upphase is in progress against a downphasing but stalling Macd. QQQ didn't make it above 37.10 on the first thrust, and so the picture is still not bullish against Thursday and Friday's levels. The technical problem is that it isn't bearish either, as the price simply refuses to go down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  11:05:42 AM
11:02 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  11:01:33 AM
QQQ is testing 37.02 from above here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:59:14 AM
The triangle(s?) on the OEX's five-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:53:23 AM
The OEX did make it back above the one-minute 100/130-ema's. On a five-minute chart, it continues coiling.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:43:36 AM
The OEX actually popped above the 1-minute 100/130-ema's for a two-minute period before gapping below them again. The ascending trendline off the 15:35 low from last Thursday crosses now at about 539.34.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:39:38 AM
Traders should note that the OEX has a slew of moving averages below it, beginning with the daily 100-ema at 538.84, and continuing with the 50-dma at 538.49, the 200-ema at 537.33, and the 30-dma at 536.35. The OEX sliced through these fairly easily on the way up, and could do the same on the way down, but my sense is that the bulls might try to hold onto the support offered by these moving averages and that progress to the downside might be a bit choppier until and unless these averages were breached.

Today's action has so far preserved the possibility of a H&S forming on the daily chart, but hasn't proven that it will. It's also preserved the possibility that the OEX could trade sideways another day or two, testing the support and consolidating recent gains before shooting up to challenge the top of its descending regression channel and the 200-sma at 546.37.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:30:04 AM
Currently at 16.77, the VXO moved higher this morning, but it hasn't yet broken above a descending trendline off the August 6 high. That trendline crosses at about 17.10-17.20, depending on how it's drawn.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  10:26:01 AM
QQQ bounced from a session low of 36.80. As we saw last week, all the sell signals in the world won't make a difference if the price can't decline, which again appears to be the case today. QQQ hasn't exceeded a 10 cent loss despite all the economic releases this morning. It's shaping up to be a very quiet session.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/1/200,  10:25:23 AM
TZOO Up +12 points

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:24:27 AM
The OEX retest of the one-minute 100/130-ema's failed, with the OEX climbing up exactly to the 100-ema before turning down again. Those averages should now be resistance and the 539.40 downside target for the H&S should still be a possibility. Perhaps. I'm not counting on anything working out too well with TA today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  10:24:24 AM
Session high for gold here at 431.50. Nymex crude is up .575 at 52.325.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  10:21:11 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:14:41 AM
Different styles of technical analysis point to 539.40 being a possible downside target for the OEX. There's that H&S on the one-minute chart. Also, after failing at its attempt to break through that symmetrical triangle (five-minute chart) to the upside this morning, the OEX now heads down to test the supporting trendline, at about 539.28. We're about to see a retest of the one-minute 100/130-ema's, however, and they need to hold as resistance for this downside target to remain in play. That's not much of a downside target, though, it is? That's about the best information we have so far today on the mixed-up charts, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  10:13:03 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's internals at this Link

Current intra-day reading for the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio would show a 3-box reversal up if we were to close with a reading of 62.00% or higher.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  10:10:33 AM
I agree with Jim's comment on the Futures side. The market feels to me like it wants to go lower. Bears want to see a break of 36.78-.80 confluence, targeting 36.60 and 36.50 support. Below 36.50, the bears should be in control, but we saw a persistent last week at 36.60 and even 36.68. A test of 36.78-.80 is shaping up as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:10:01 AM
The OEX is back at the 540 support, back at the one-minute 130-ema at 540.08 as I type. The 539.40 H&S downside target may be possible.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  10:07:09 AM
We saw an immediate spring higher on the test of 540, but so far, the spring higher couldn't bring the OEX high enough to retest the broken H&S neckline on the one-minute chart and the OEX turns lower again. The one-minute 100/130-ema's are at 540.18 and 540.08, respectively, with those averages providing the energy for that immediate spring higher from 540. We can watch those as an early benchmark as post-economic release volatility settles out.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/1/200,  10:04:42 AM
The bulls now have to decide how the weaker than expected ISM number relates to the much higher than expected PMI number last week. The ISM is a national number where the PMI is the Chicago region only. Does the lower ISM suggest the Fed will be less inclined to continue raising rates? Does the ISM suggest the national economy is weakening and heading for another recession as some have been saying? Lots of question and few answers this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  10:04:30 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Russell 2000 Value (RUJ.X) 863.31 -0.17% ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  10:01:41 AM
Headlines:

10:00am U.S. AUG. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP REVISED 0.9% VS 0.8%

10:00am U.S. SEPT CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS FLAT VS UP 0.5% EXPECTED

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  10:01:22 AM
QQQ got whacked, currently testing 36.88 from below. Session low is 36.84.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/1/200,  10:00:10 AM
Alert - ISM Index = 56.8, (est 58.5, last 58.5)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  9:59:07 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $28.67 -0.86% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  9:58:58 AM
The OEX's one-minute chart now shows a H&S, with the OEX possibly just breaking below the neckline, with a downside target near 539.40. I wouldn't put too much trust in this just ahead of economic numbers, but I would be aware of the possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  9:58:34 AM
Merck (MRK) $29.58 -5.52% .... Lower and #2 on most active list after Wall Street Journal article suggesting that company (MRK) e-mails had MRK knowing of Vioxx's danger at early stage.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:58:21 AM
The USD Index continues its overnight climb (30 min delayed at this Link ), trying for a retest of 85.45-.50 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  9:55:14 AM
Heading into 10:00, the OEX is poised midway between upper Keltner resistance and mid-channel Keltner support. On a traditional basis, it's inside the 540-541 S/R zone, and just below the 540.80 number that has turned up over and over for months as potential S/R. Perfect spot to stay to confound the most people heading into the 10:00 numbers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:54:30 AM
A big 10.5B overnight repo has just been announced, replacing the 8.25B expiring for a net 2.25B gain from the Fed's open market desk.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  9:51:39 AM
VIX.X 16.44 +1.04% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows ... 14.59, 15.32, Piv= 15.68 16.41, 16.77.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  9:47:09 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,130.10 (unch) .... updated bar chart with new MONTHLY and WEEKLY Pivot retracement levels at this Link

Pre-election support should be firm from 1,117-1,121.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  9:44:49 AM
The TRAN posted a slightly higher high this morning, but Keltner resistance caught it, and it was slapped back, too. An if/then statement that could be composed about the TRAN based on Keltner evidence is that if the TRAN cannot maintain five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 3495.56, then it's vulnerable down to 3482-3484.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:42:04 AM
Gold is holding a 90 cent gain at 430, but HUI is down .33% and XAU -.15% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  9:38:55 AM
The first OEX move higher brought it above the flattish symmetrical triangle on the five-minute chart, but when the OEX was slapped back, it was slapped back inside that triangle, making the breakout look like a false one. As I stated in my 18:15 post last night, a failure to produce five-minute closes above 540.70 (now 540.85) presents the possibility that the OEX will work its way down to mid-channel support instead, with that support now in the 538.50-539 range. I'm gonna report this stuff, but I continue to believe that TA is of less usefulness today than it usually might be, and especially just ahead of the 10:00 economic releases.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:38:11 AM
Session low for R2K futures here. Bonds have firmed up a touch, with QQQ testing 36.88 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:35:56 AM
Upside resistance on this move is at 37.02, followed by 37.15 QQQ. Look for support below 36.88 at 36.78-.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  9:34:36 AM
The bulls get their first wish on the OEX, with the flattish open and a slight move higher, but that first move higher was quickly slapped back, and that action wasn't on the bullish wish list.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:32:21 AM
The 30 min cycle bounce for NQ futures (pre-market proxy for QQQ) continues this morning, but if QQQ turns down anywhere below Friday's high within the next how, that 30 minute oscillator sell signal will register another bearish divergence. I suspect that volumes will be light today, and the action feels slow so far out of the gate.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/1/200,  9:29:53 AM
COMPX and Russell 2000 (growth and value) pivot matrix levels at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  9:16:06 AM
Remember that we'll be watching the open closely this morning (see my 18:15 post last night), as bears want to see a flat or lower open and a move down from there, and bulls want to see a flat or higher open and a move up from there to refute the possible reversal signal begun last week. Bears actually prefer a lower open and bulls actually prefer a higher open, with futures currently suggesting that flat to slightly higher might be the best guess. We have ISM and prices paid at 10:00, so I'd be cautious of placing strong bets ahead of those numbers. This may be a trading-by-bias day, however, as I honestly don't expect technical analysis to be the best tool at predicting what's going to happen. Since that's my strength, if I have one, my posts may be less useful today than those of some of the other writers who feel they have a stronger grasp on what "ought" to happen today. On an everyday basis, I try to stay as unbiased as possible, just studying the charts, so I've pretty much wiped out my ability to state affirmatively what ought to happen. Nevertheless, my 18:15 post includes a chart that shows some of the things I'm seeing, with the mixture of bullish and bearish chart characteristics backing up my guess that technical analysis may not be the best tool today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:08:22 AM
IB appears to have smoothed out.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  9:02:11 AM
Careful, all- IB's east coast server is blinking on and off this morning. Consider using live stops if you're not already.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  8:47:41 AM
Session highs for Dec. gold and silver futures here at 431.20 and 7.365 respectively. Bonds continue lower, TNX up 3.1 bps now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  8:39:11 AM
Session low for ten year bonds here, TNX +2.7 bps at 4.056%. Equities are pulling up slightly, with QQQ trading 36.94.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  8:32:43 AM
There's little reaction to the news, with the futures slightly lower, ES 1130.5, NQ 1488, YM flat at 10009. QQQ is holding at 36.92. Bonds are weakening, with TNX up 4.049% and ZN futures down .17 currently at 113.391.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  8:30:40 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. SEPT CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.6% AS EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. SEPT. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.2% VS UP 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. SEPT. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.1%, 1.5% Y-O-Y

8:30am U.S. SEPT. PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.1%, UP 2.0% Y-O-Y

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/1/200,  8:16:04 AM
There seems to have been last week a repeating candle formation on the major averages, not really sure though. It appears to be somewhat of a bearish advance block on the SPX, OEX and NDX. The COMPQ had a long legged doji Friday, which shows a large price range in volatility. But, there's no strength in the move meaning that it's lost its momentum.

I've attached several charts: the NYA, GSO, GHA, SMH and NDX. Link Link Link Link Link As far as the NDX I'm showing some conflicting signals where the BPNDX & NASI are signaling short-term bullishness. I'm thinking a breakout may be coming there.

With the Bin Laden tape coming out late Friday and the run-up last week, I was surprised that traders didn't take profits going into the weekend. Not sure how things will play out Monday. With the race so close the market looks to have given the "don't care who's elected" signal and we may get a post-election rally no matter what. Then again there might be a sell on the election reversal Wednesday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/1/200,  7:56:07 AM
Equities are slightly higher, with ES trading 1130.5, NQ 1488, YM 10022 and QQQ +.02 at 36.92. Gold is up .4 to 429.50, silver down .034 to 7.275, ten year bonds down .109 to 113.453 and crude oil +.15 to 53.80.

We await the 8:30 releases of Sept. personal income and personal spending, est. .3% and .6%, and at 10AM construction spending, est. 4% and the ISM, est. 58.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/1/200,  7:21:30 AM
Good morning. Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. In Japan, the Nikkei was pressured due to a major bank's trimming of its full-year profit forecast and by earnings disappointments from other companies. Most European bourses post gains, with at least two major banks being pressured in Europe, too. U.S. futures have been coiling ahead of this morning's October ISM at 10:00. As of 7:01, gold was down $0.40 and crude was up $0.44.

As Asian markets opened, talk about China's hoped-for soft landing dominated articles. That hopeful sentiment was countered by worries about the effect of the yen's strength on exporters and also by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's trimming of its full-year profit forecast. The company cited its efforts to reduce bad loans ahead of schedule as the reason. Many banking stocks fells. NTT DoCoMo and Nissan Motor disappointed, too, and dropped.

The Nikkei opened in the red, and coiled around 10,720 most of the day. The Nikkei ended the day at the top of the day's range, down 36.71 points or 0.34%, at 10,734.71.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.87%. South Korea's October consumer prices were unchanged for the second month in a row, although they rose 3.8% over the previous year's number. Some call for South Korea's central bank to lower rates to increase spending, but inflation concerns have caused other central banks in the region to raise rates recently, not lower them. The Kospi gained 0.10%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.10%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.15%, to 1,305.291.

Currently, European bourses trade mostly in positive territory, although two major European banks trade lower. ABN Amro warned that 2004's operating profits will fall and blamed the U.S. mortgage business for that warning. A newspaper speculated that Germany's HVB Bank could include a warning about 2004's profit when it reports results Thursday. In other stock-specific news, Dutch telecom KPN guided analysts to expect fiscal-year operating margins at the low end of its previous guidance.

In the U.K., oil-related issues and miners recouped some of last week's losses after China raised interest rates. Supermarket chain Sainsbury benefited from speculation that it could be a takeover target.

As of 7:01 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 34.90 points or 0.75%, to trade at 4,659.10. The CAC 40 had gained 17.75 points or 0.48%, to trade at 3,724.57. The DAX had gained 19.71 points or 0.50%, to trade at 3,979.96

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/31/20,  8:20:23 PM
U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Per this weekend's Ask the Analyst Column, I've deleted the AMEX Composite from the Market Watch and added the Russell 2000 Growth Index (RUO.X) Link . Going forward, we can track relative strengh with the 5-day and 20-day percentage. I could have also used the Russell 2000 Value Index (RUJ.X) Link in the market watch.

If "growth" is gaining favor (relative strength) vs. "value" then we can easily monitor via percentage change against the blended Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) Link itself.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/31/20,  6:15:01 PM
Here's an update of a daily OEX chart posted Friday: Link As the annotations points out, it's as easy to make a bullish case for the markets as it is to make a bearish case, and vice versa. Anyone intent on trading Monday and Tuesday must be armed with a personal bias for what the markets will do, and then be ready to jump out of a play and even possibly trades sides if that bias is proved wrong. In addition to the mixture of bullish, bearish and indecisive characteristics noted here, I could note many more across many charts. If you think you know absolutely what direction the OEX will go based on this chart, you're psychic, although chance says some holding a strong bias are bound to be right.

As the day ended Friday, the OEX was trying to break over the top of a shallow symmetrical triangle, but hadn't yet made that breakout. If it doesn't complete that breakout by moving over 540.70 on a five-minute closing basis, the Keltner chart suggests that over the very short term, then the OEX is likely to make its way down to either 539.25 or 538.25, with the lower number a real possibility. That if/then statement is about all that can be said. Possibly that's the limit of any speculation that should be made ahead of the ISM number at 10:00 Monday morning anyway.

Standard technical analysis tells us to pay close attention to how the OEX opens Monday. With the OEX's candle a small-bodied candle at the top of a climb, bears will want to see the potential reversal signal confirmed by a lower open and a move down from the open. Bulls are going to want to see a higher open with a move up from there, refuting the potential reversal signal. However, I wouldn't count anything as being too definitive ahead of the ISM number, and I'd put less faith in technical analysis than usual ahead of Tuesday's election.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/31/20,  6:14:52 PM
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