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  Mark Davis   11/3/200,  4:21:06 PM
Jeff I've been in and out more times than... (I can't think of a good analogy). I was up +16.25 overnight. I haven't added up the totals for today yet but think I probably came close to giving it all back. I'm so ticked right now I can't see straight. I cannot remember a time when I chose exactly the wrong direction at exactly the right time so many times in a single trading session... and to make it worse I used wider stops than normal. I need to go blow off some steam and gather myself together again. Today was a very humbling experience following a euphoric overnight session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  4:21:05 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

It was perhaps today's INACTIVITY in those SMH Nov. $32.50 calls (SMH-KZ) and decision to do nothing on the gap higher that was the "best trade" of the day. This analysis will be closely monitored come Friday morning. I wouldn't be a bit surprised come November expiration that the SMH peggs a close of $32.50.

Day trade short the QQQ at $37.81. Closed it out too soon at $37.62. (+0.19, or 0.50%)

Day trade long Research in Motion (RIMM) at $84.30. I'm taking the close of $84.52 as my exit point, as I don't think I got the exit/close al_rt of $84.74 posted in time. ($0.22, or +0.26%)

Ahead of Friday's nonfarm payroll numbers I thought it best to close out the PAYX Nov. $30 puts (PQX-WF) at $0.10 offer. These were SOLD on 10/21/2004 at $0.40 per contract. My thoughts here are if we see a negative reaction on Friday, then I didn't want my "hands tide" by this position (as it relates to the still long Dec. $30 puts (PQX-XF) position. I take the gain of $0.30 per contract, or $120.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  4:20:58 PM
Alert QCOM earnings EPS of +0.29 inline with estimates. Proforma Rev $1.4B (est was $1.4B)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  4:04:11 PM
Mark... where'd you finally get out at? I didn't get to see this morning?

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/3/200,  4:01:55 PM
Ditto Jeff... we had a blast!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  4:00:45 PM
Jane ... time flys when not only when you're having fun, but have so many things to do!!! I can't tell you how nice it was last night to do nothing but monitor the e-mini S&P futures.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  3:58:37 PM
Day trade long exit alert for RIMM $84.74 ... here at WEEKLY S1

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  3:56:27 PM
Day trade exit setup alert .... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $84.85 .... Stick an offer out there at $84.98. They might try and print orders out at $85.00 and they can't do it with you there.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/3/200,  3:53:11 PM
Jeff time flys when you are having fun doesn't it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  3:51:54 PM
I didn't realize it was as late in the afternoon as it is.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  3:49:19 PM
Huge volume for QQQ at 131M shares so far, well above its ADV. While the reversal at the top wasn't the stuff of violent dojis, that big volume on the reversal looks bearish. A move below 37.00 will be necessary to confirm it, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  3:48:21 PM
The OEX rises toward Keltner resistance and the 200-sma. As I suspected would happen, the resistance is actually a little above the 200-sma, at 546.55-546.82, so it's possible that the OEX might be able to push a little above the 200-sma. Whether the OeX breaks above that Keltner resistance or not (either this afternoon or tomorrow morning) tells us whether it has the strength to turn its smallest channel higher again or whether it's too weak and will stay pointed lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  3:45:27 PM
Day trade long alert ... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $84.30 -10.29% here, stop $83.80, target $85.90.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  3:41:28 PM
StemCells (STEM) $3.10 -24.5% ... might have been a "Kerry stock"

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  3:36:18 PM
Ouch. Today's OEX candle looks ugly. But so did yesterday's and look what happened. Still, a series of ugly candles does not a healthy rally make.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  3:32:44 PM
Session highs for silver and gold at these levels, 7.216 and 428.10 currently. HUI is up 2.48% at 228.54. My delayed USD Index chart had the USD bouncing from 87.64, but I suspect that the low is getting retested.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  3:23:53 PM
The OEX actually dipped below the 545-ish level that Keltners suggested would be next support, dipping all the way to the 50% retracement of the zoom up from yesterday's low to today's high.

Without a quick bounce, those same Keltners suggest that the OEX may be vulnerable down to 540.60, although maybe not today, of course.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  3:16:01 PM
The OEX is still sinking toward 545-ish Keltner support. Those in bearish positions should be prepared for a potential bounce from that level, if hit. I'm studying Keltner charts now, and it appears that Keltner resistance may have by then firmed up near or just above the 200-sma, so that it's possible that any bounce from the 545-ish zone could be stopped at just above the 200-sma. That's still an iffy judgment call, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  3:14:46 PM
QQQ is bearish below 37.40, the former support level that held until 2PM. Next support is at the 37.24 low, followed by 37.20, 37.14 and 37.01.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  3:11:48 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  3:05:20 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  2:54:29 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $59.86 +6.85% ....

Travelzoo (TZOO) $81.83 +11.3% ....

Some highly shorted stocks that seem to be finding a little bid today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:52:33 PM
The OEX did sink down to retest the 200-sma, but hasn't yet dropped to the 545 level suggested by the seven-minute Keltner charts. It may have a bounce ahead of it first, perhaps up to 546.70-547.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  2:52:33 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X down 0.9 bp now at 4.066%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:50:32 PM
I read in recent days that we could expect a 1% rally if Bush won reelection. Yesterday, the Dow closed at 10,035.73, with a 1% rally bringing it up to 10,136.09. Today's high was 10,215.51. A 1% rally on the SPX would bring it up to 1141.87, with today's high at 1147.60. A 1% rally on the Nasdaq would bring it up to 2003.54. Today's high has been 2020.03.

Have we already had the post-Bush rally?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  2:41:58 PM
The US Dollar Index has broken previous support at 84.75 as Dec. gold continues higher, last at 427.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  2:33:47 PM
Ten year notes are flipping positive here, with TNX down .1 bp at 4.074%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:33:26 PM
Crude continued its bounce from the 50-dma, closing at $50.90, up $1.28.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:29:27 PM
The OEX rises to retest broken support. Keltner channels are unclear as to whether that support will now firm up as resistance, but bulls certainly want the OEX back inside or even above that symmetrical triangle.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  2:29:18 PM
Session high for euro futures here, +1.10% at 1.2826.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:27:42 PM
RIMM is dropping today, too. Subscriber M. thought other subscribers might be interested in the reason, having to do with a downgrade by UBS and Nokia signing a deal with privately held Good Technology to use that company's GoodLink wireless e-mail service in some of its phones. Nokia also uses RIMM's BlackBerry wireless e-mail service in some.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  2:20:26 PM
The bounce from 37.27 QQQ is holding so far, but bulls need to get some lift if it's going to stick. Volume has picked up, but it will look iffy until QQQ is back above 37.42.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:17:28 PM
QCOM just hit another new LOD a few minutes ago.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:16:38 PM
The OEX looks vulnerable down to 545-545.20 according to Keltner evidence on the seven-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:15:31 PM
Remember that Nymex closes in 15 minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:15:12 PM
The OEX has of course dropped out of that wider symmetrical triangle and is now testing the 200-sma, inching below it as I type but staying within the level at which it's considered testing that average.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  2:14:12 PM
QQQ is resting on 30 min channel support, just below the 60 min channel. If it's going to bounce, this would be the likely spot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  2:14:00 PM
Swing trade put option close out alert Close out the Paychex Nov. $30 puts (PQX-WF) at $0.10 here. these are the onese we SOLD on 10/21/04 for $0.40 per contract.

PAYX $32.48 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  2:12:42 PM
QQQ $37.30 +0.53% .... session lows

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  2:12:02 PM
TRIN 0.63 .... reclaims DAILY S2.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  2:04:05 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  2:03:30 PM
The latest wavelet bouncee is rolling over from a much lower high for QQQ, and a retest of the low looks imminent. 30 and 60 min channel support are down to 37.30.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  2:00:59 PM
After pushing above a 50% retracement of its recent steep decline, the IUX has dropped back below that 50% level and now is in danger of turning red. As I mentioned late yesterday, I have been following the IUX because the markets declined along with the IUX and bounced along with it, and it now faces that possible strong resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  1:59:03 PM
Gold continues higher, as does silver, but bonds are not weakening as they did this morning on the first dollar dunk. TNX is now up just 1.8 bps at 4.093%. The Fed's permanent market op was less than 500M, and so this appears to be some other force at work on the bid under treasuries.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  1:58:30 PM
For those at work, Kerry and Edwards are speaking now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  1:52:53 PM
The OEX still coils within the new and broader symmetrical triangle.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  1:48:22 PM
Session high for Dec. gold here, +5.50 at 426.30. Euros and CAD futures are also very strong, CAD +1.41% here. I believe that the USD Index is retesting 84.75 support, but only have a delayed chart with which to verify.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  1:45:43 PM
GM says sales fell -5% and more than expected. Production was revised down -10,000 lower than previously expected and they are guiding down for Q4.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  1:45:19 PM
GE and UTX are both on the verge of a breakout

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  1:43:48 PM
COP and OXY have taken off over the last couple hours and are moving higher. The buying opportunity may be about over.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  1:42:40 PM
So far, we have a doji at the bottom of a steep decline on the crude contract for December delivery (cl04z on QCharts). This doji is forming just above support--the 50-dma, the 50% retracement of the climb off the August low, the latest and steepest ascending trendline, and the previous swing high. This presents the potential for a climb higher, but not a promise, of course.

This comes as I'm reading that Yukos' chief executive warns of a substantial possibility of insolvency, as Iraqi oil from the north may be disrupted for up to ten days due to the latest attack, and as talks are failing and Nigeria may be seeing a strike among oil workers looming. That supports the idea that crude could move higher again after this test of support, especially as some believed that oil would move higher if Bush were reelected. Counter that doom and gloom with predictions by traders that the U.S. can produce all it's going to need and that oil should fall below $40.00 by the end of the year. No wonder there's a doji sitting there so far on the daily chart. Indecision.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  1:33:04 PM
Amgen (AMGN) is on the move higher. Shares are up 6.4% to $58.50 and breaking out over its simple and exponential 200-dma's.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  1:32:22 PM
Despite looking somewhat weaker than it had earlier, the OEX's seven-minute Keltner resistance did hold on the last test. The OEX now tests the bottom trendline of its widened symmetrical triangle. (See my 12:57 post for a chart.) Keltner support is trying to line up near and just below that triangle's support, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  1:29:04 PM
The US Dollar Index was bouncing as of 30 minutes ago, having once again held above 84.75 support. Gold is up 4.50 to 425.30, HUI +1.74% and XAU +1.47%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  1:19:44 PM
The TRAN's intraday chart for this week is just crazy. The TRAN fell steeply from Monday's high, climbed to a 50% retracement of the steep decline off that high and fell again. It climbed again this morning, above a 61.8% retracement, but without equaling Monday's high, and then dropped again, but not to yesterday's low. Since crude inventories were released, it has completed a sort of arcing climb that may be part of a rolling-over process but perhaps is some other sort of formation I don't quite recognize. I couldn't begin to tell you what I expect the TRAN to do based on that chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  1:17:46 PM
Stanley Works (SWK) $46.06 +2.12% ... toolmaker challenging its 52-week highs here.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  1:08:47 PM
Phelps Dodge (PD) is inching closer to a breakout over the $90.00 level now that its has moved into the gap down in October.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  1:02:58 PM
Volume has slowed considerably for QQQ. A wavelet cycle downphase is just kicking off here, and both the 30 and 60 minute cycle channels are pointing south for the first time today. The next two hours should be prime time for the bears, but a sustained move back above the 37.65 level would likely stall those downphases.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  12:59:41 PM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) chart at this link. Build this in with the Lehman 1-3 year iShare chart. Link

Should the 5-year YIELD jump to 3.553% in the next couple of days, where do you think the 10-year YIELD would be? I think MONTHLY R1/WEEKLY R2.

What about the SPX?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:57:32 PM
I think the OEX is just broadening this morning's symmetrical triangle into a wider triangle: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  12:54:11 PM
Kerry has postponed speech until 2:PM

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:51:10 PM
Keltner resistance lines are separating now, even as the OEX hesitates. On the seven-minute chart, they still look strong enough to turn back the OEX from 549 or below, but not nearly as strong as they did only a little while ago. There's some possibility that the OEX could break through again, if the push is hard enough.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/3/200,  12:49:05 PM
10,300 will present some strong resistance on the Dow. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:47:04 PM
The SOX tested its 200-ema today, with that average at 426.36, and now falls toward the 100-ema at 409.21, with that average proving to be S/R lately. Link We might expect at least a tepid bounce attempt if the 100-ema is touched, but a decline below yesterday's low might be a significant bearish development, too, suggesting a retest of 400.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  12:44:20 PM
QQQ has 30 and 60 min channel support nestsed at 37.34, below the level at which QQQ bottomed this morning at the day low. A lower bounce here would set up a retest of the 37.42 level. The short cycle downphase is approaching oversold but has more room to run before it maxxes out.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  12:40:57 PM
Kos Pharmaceuticals (KOSP) is up 13.3% and gapping above multiple levels of resistance on big volume after reporting earnings that beat estimates by 18 cents. It doesn't hurt that Bush won the election boosting the DRG drug index up 3%.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  12:34:54 PM
Hmmm... both FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are trading lower today; down 9.7% and 13.7% respectively.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  12:33:23 PM
InterActiveCorp (IACI) is up 12.9% to $24.83 after reporting earnings this morning. Results were 3 cents better than analysts' estimates.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  12:31:36 PM
Dean Foods (DF) is up 6.4% to $31.89 after reporting earnings that beat estimates by a penny. Management raised its stock buy back plan.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  12:30:09 PM
CME up another $4 to $184.11.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  12:29:07 PM
Lehman iShare 1-3 year chart at this Link

Technical analysis with my economic interpretation as it relates to election, nonfarm payroll and oil prices.

I know why the SHY jumped from my current upward trend attachment. It was nonfarm payroll, so that become "front of mind" no. If you were a CEO of a corporation, what would your stance on new hiring have been up until today (election)? Why has the SHY's PRICE fallen? I think it mirrors oil's recent decline.

Now.. for he SHY puts in the MM Profiles. I would eyeball my currently profile exit of $0.60 per option being the OFFER should the SHY trade just below $81.79, and maybe inbetween the bid/ask on a trade at $81.68.

Between now and Friday morning, I would take $0.60 if I could get it, before "knowing" what the actual nonfarm payroll number was. However, we can adjust our exit point in the option if need be, should we find a strong nonfarm payroll number on Friday.

Now... look at your 10-year yield in the pivot matrix. See that we traded WEEKLY R1 today. See the correlation at MONTHLY R1 and WEEKLY R2? This gives me some thought that a slightly stronger nonfarm payroll figure could be found.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  12:27:32 PM
Merrill Lynch (MER) issuing positive comments today over U.S. energy stocks and their long-term growth potential.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:27:26 PM
The OEX may be getting ready to bounce up and retest broken support, with the bounce beginning somewhere between the current 547.33 level and 546.40. If so, nearby resistance lies at 547.70 and then stronger from 548.26-548.90.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  12:24:44 PM
Ford Motor Co (F) reporting that U.S. car sales were down 20% while truck sales were up 2.5%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:24:43 PM
I guess QCOM investors aren't too sure about QCOM's after-the-close earnings today. QCOM is diving, in danger of completing a H&S on its daily chart. I wouldn't jump on this either direction just ahead of earnings, but it might be something to watch in succeeding days.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:18:24 PM
On several Keltner chart of several time intervals, the OEX appears to be sliding toward a retest of its 200-sma. It should do some zigging and zagging, moving up to test support, falling back, before retesting that average, if it does.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  12:16:40 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:12:24 PM
Crude came within a few cents of its 50-dma this morning, with that 50-dma at $48.43 and with crude's low today at 48.65. The 50-dma or 100-dma has been providing support for crude prices on any drops. The 50% decline off the most recent climb (off 8/30 low) lies at about $48.38, so just below the 50-dma, with both providing possible support. However, it's possible for crude prices to retrace back to the previous swing high at $47.30 (8/20) and still not violate its latest and steepest rising trendline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  12:07:25 PM
The OEX has fallen out of the symmetrical triangle at the top of the day's range, breaking to the downside, but hasn't yet breached the 200-sma. On the 7-minute Keltner chart, resistance firms near 548.70-548.80, looking firm enough to turn the OEX back on any test. Although a retest of that level can't be precluded over the short-term, it now looks easier for the OEX to fall than to rise much higher than 549. The question is: how far?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  12:05:48 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Semiconductors drip red

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:59:06 AM
Careful, bulls. After failing in its attempt to push higher out of the symmetrical triangle on it five-minute chart, the OEX now tests the lower support, currently at about 547.90. Support is thinning out below the OEX's current position. If this trendline doesn't hold, Keltner support lies at 547.60, at 546.22 (near the 200-sma) and 543.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  11:58:44 AM
Lehman 1-3 year iShares (SHY) $81.90 -0.12% ... after spike below zone of support 81.88-81.90 sit right in the zone here.

MACD moving back below zero looks further bearish.

Will follow with updated chart in a minute, with observations and thoughts into Friday's nonfarm payroll.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  11:57:35 AM
There's a wavelet divergence for QQQ on the failure at 37.76 a few minutes ago. 37.43 is key support below yesterday's high of 37.55.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  11:49:40 AM
Alert - SOX has gone negative

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:49:34 AM
The TRAN tests 3500 again, at 3491.84 as I type. It hasn't come close to yesterday's high yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  11:46:36 AM
Five year YIELD ($FVX.X) up 5.1 bp at 3.383% ... Did breach its slooowly trending higher 200-day SMA (33.31) with session high yield of 3.425% (34.25).

Nonfarm payrolls on Friday will be a key economic report among bond and equity traders.

For political pundits, it may also be a time to "second guess"

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:46:17 AM
False breakout on the symmetrical triangles? Perhaps. The OEX is back inside its triangle, never having reached a new high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  11:44:52 AM
December Fed Fund futures (ff04z) 97.92 .... lowest since early August. Currently suggesting a 30% chance that Fed funds could be 2.25% by contract expiration.

That would be 50 basis points higher than the current 1.75% rate.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  11:40:47 AM
I expect sellers to defend the 37.85-.88 QQQ level, which lines up with 30 and 60 min channel resistance. Above 37.90, look for a volume spike to confirm the next round of shorts to the slaughter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:34:24 AM
The OEX is breaking above the top of that neutral triangle, but has not yet reached a new daily high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  11:32:11 AM
QQQ is showing solid volume so far, with 70M shares traded against an average daily volume of 102.9M. Yesterday's volume was 109M. The break above yesterday's high on rising volume is certainly not bearish- at least until it reverses. Today's low was below yesterday's high but well above its low. Today is showing us a higher high, higher low, and it's doing so on high volume.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/3/200,  11:28:06 AM
Dateline CNN Sen. John Kerry calls President Bush to concede presidential election, CNN has learned.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  11:26:09 AM
Bush victory speech at 3:PM ET

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  11:25:03 AM
The USD Index has tested and, as of 30 minutes ago, held the 84.75-.80 support level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:24:11 AM
The OEX tests the top of that symmetrical triangle building at the top of this morning's climb, moving down a bit from that test.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:22:53 AM
Here's the symmetrical triangle to watch on the OEX's three-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:21:22 AM
The OEX's three-minute Keltner resistance is looking a little less firm now.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/3/200,  11:20:13 AM
1160 target on SPX as VIX may re-test October lows. Link Link

MUR Murphy Oil bouncing off of 100-ema as expected. Link

Back on 10/15 @ 11:56 I highlighted the $DRG and the PPH as a good reward potential relative to risk play. Take a look on the gap up today on the PPH. Link

I'm also long the semi's via Profund SMPIXsince 8/17 @ $15.57. Link On 10/22 @ 7:25 on MM I posted a chart watching for the 100 ma 32.50 breakout, we've gotten that move. Bullish!

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  11:15:47 AM
Kerry to give concession speech at 1:PM ET

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:11:10 AM
The three-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX could have difficulty breaking much over the top of that symmetrical triangle, at least on this push. Beware, though, of a possible false break, leaving only a candle shadow above the top of the triangle.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  11:09:44 AM
Perhaps the OEX is settling into a symmetrical triangle at the top of its range, as I speculated earlier that it might be doing. Currently, the top of that triangle is at 549, the bottom at about 547.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  11:08:31 AM
Crude oil is taking a dunk, down 47.5 cents to 49.15.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  11:05:33 AM
AP saying Kerry has conceeded

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  11:04:40 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  11:03:59 AM
The Fed has announced another coupon pass, which will add liquidity for its dealers' accounts. No amount stated yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  11:00:18 AM
I am noticing an interesting looking inverse head and shoulders formation on todays 1 minute QQQ chart assuming it climbs from its current $37.60 level. I have never known the formula re confirmation and target for these formations assuming there is oneCan you enlighten me on this? Ciao, Graham (New Zealand)

I see it as well. However, despite the shape of a shallow dip, deep dip then shallow dip again, reverse head and shoulders patterns are bottom formation that result from the interplay of cycles of multiple wavelengths bottoming and beginning to bounce together. In other words, valid reverse h&s patterns cannot occur at the top of a multi-cycle upphase. The bullish read will be a bull flag or wedge off the top within the ongoing daily cycle upphase- that looks likely from here, only slightly less so than the bearish 60 min rollover scenario I noted earlier. A move below the previous 37.43 low will set that up, while a bounce from here will target 37.75 next.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:57:32 AM
Stepping away for about ten minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:57:12 AM
It's so hard to wait for confirmation, isn't it? That's made particularly difficult when you know that the wait might mean lost possible profits. However, remain aware that the OEX could be forming a symmetrical triangle at the top of its climb rather than a simple lower high. If so, the break out (upside or downside) of the triangle will give us more guidance, and that break could well come to the upside. Unfortunately, it's better to wait.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:57:11 AM
10:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  10:52:46 AM
There's a lower high for QQQ at 37.75 printed, which fits within the context of the short cycle downphase still in progress and the 30 minute cycle rollover. Bears need a break of 37.43 from the next downleg to maintain the bearish picture, while a break back above 37.75 will put the bulls back in business. All things being equal, an extended sideways move (for approx. 1 hour) would fit within the picture of a 60 min channel rollover.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:52:14 AM
Below the 547.44 level, OEX Keltner support thins. This usually means that it's easier to decline than to rise, but that nearby Keltner support has not yet been broken nor the lower high confirmed, so it's still possible that the OEX could instead reach an equal or higher high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:47:15 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $30.01 +4.56% .... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:44:31 AM
Swing trade bullish call alert taking 1 (1/2 position) in a Forest Labs (FRX) Link Feb. $45 Call (FHA-BI) at the offer of $2.60.

FRX $42.99 +2.35% here. Target is $57.

No "COX-2" exposure that I know of. Drug stocks will look horrible and this is more of a "fundamental" call.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:41:13 AM
Confirmation of a lower high on the OEX's five-minute chart will not come until a drop below the trough between the two peaks. This will come just above the 200-sma, so I would use the 200-sma as a benchmark. The trouble with using that as a benchmark is the same one I mentioned earlier--the need then for a too-wide stop.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  10:36:48 AM
30 min channel resistance is down to 37.88 QQQ, support 37.44. The 30 minute channel has turned down, while the 60 min channel is just beginning to slow its rise. Hopefully it won't take hours of flat chop to exhaust that longer upphase before the 30 minute downphase begins to get traction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:36:16 AM
Watching for the possibility of a lower high on the OEX now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:31:52 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  10:30:14 AM
Alert - Oil and Gas Inventories = +6.3mb, (last 283.4mb)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  10:26:30 AM
Bonds are recovering slightly, and 4.14%-4.16% TNX resistance held, with TNX now down to 4.119%, +4.4 bps for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:25:53 AM
TRIN continues to rise, but is still at full-out bullish levels. I have a feeling that markets are on hold until after the crude inventories are released. The OEX is perching above its 200-sma, but the support grows a bit more tenuous, perhaps just on nervousness ahead of that number. I'm afraid that markets are news-driven, though, with the reaction to elections, a temporary break in oil flow in Iraq and these crude numbers to be factored in.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  10:22:43 AM
7200-tick SMA support now in play at 37.46, followed by 37.34 and 37.30 confluence supports within yesterday's range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:18:36 AM
QQQ $37.56 +1.10% ... here's intra-day chart with QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels and a lower 5-MRT (in PINK). Zones colored YELLOW. Link

KNOW where your WEEKLY Pivot levels are!!!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  10:18:31 AM
QQQ is unable to do more than probe briefly below yesterday's high. The short cycle downphase is in its early stages, but the slowdown in the rate of descent has a small bullish wavelet divergence setting up. A break below 37.55 for longer than 2 minutes should be enough to reverse it- this is a key support level here for bulls and bears.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:16:26 AM
The OEX approaches its 200-sma again. It's dropping below the breakout level on the five- and seven-minute charts, setting up the possibility of a drop to 544.30 or so, but 545.50 is historical S/R from yesterday and the 200-sma is just above that, so this is the point from which I'd like to see a bounce up into a lower high to give a best chance at a bearish entry. I'd like to see that happen before the 200-sma is breached, because morning breakdown entries haven't been particularly profitable lately.

Remember that we have crude inventories soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:13:48 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,143.42 , QQQ $37.60 .... They're working these WEEKLY R1s

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:08:37 AM
VIX.X 14.56 -9.95% .... DAILY Pivot levels as follows ... 14.79, 15.48, Piv= 15.90 , 16.59, 17.01.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:08:03 AM
The OEX has dropped back below the October high. I'm not any better at catching soaring knives than I am at catching falling ones, but those who believe that low TRIN is a contrarian signal could base a bearish trade on a rush to a new high and then a fall back below that October high, needing to be confirmed, however, by a decline below the 200-sma at 546.17. That trader would have to be willing to be whipsawed, however, and would perhaps need a wide stop just above the previous high of the day. Risky stuff. Possibly profitable, but that needed wide stop makes it even riskier.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:05:57 AM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,143.58 , QQQ $37.55

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  10:05:35 AM
Session low for QQQ here at 37.56, now testing yesterday's high on a young short cycle downphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:03:25 AM
Sell Prog. Premiumium .... SPX 1,145.19 , QQQ $37.66

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  10:03:10 AM
The Fed has rolled over the 3.25B overnight repo expiring today- no net change, for a change.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:03:08 AM
So far, the OEX is finding support just where bulls would hope for it to find support on the five- and seven-minute Keltner charts, preserving a breakout signal. However, bulls need to see a new high as confirmation. Bears want to see a lower high confirmed. Neither has happened yet.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  10:00:51 AM
Factory Orders = -0.4%, (est +0.4%, last 0.1%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  10:00:23 AM
Remember that we have non-manufacturing ISM and Factor Orders (although for September) due in one minute, and the possibly more important crude inventories due thirty minutes from now. Be careful.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  10:00:15 AM
Alert - ISM Non-Mfg Index = 59.8, (est 58.5, last 56.7)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:57:48 AM
This morning marks the first time since January (!) that the OEX has even touched upper Keltner resistance on the 60-minute chart. That resistance turns higher, and is currently at 550.13, and the OEX can and has (in January) created breakout signals on the 60-minute chart. The quick move today skewed even the 60-minute chart, so it will take a while before Keltner lines will settle down and we can determine whether support or resistance appears stronger on that chart, and whether a breakout above that resistance or a breakdown now that it's been touched appears most likely.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:56:43 AM
SMH Nov. $32.50 Call (SMH-KZ) update alert .... Here's what I'm going to do. This morning's high option trade was $1.30.

I'm going to place a STOP on these options at $1.35.

With SMH trading $33.00, I know there's roughly $0.70 worth of premium built into these options at this point.

Since my profiled SMH position is "net long," will place a fine-tuned stop on these options at $1.35. If bulls want them that bad going forward, then so be it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:51:08 AM
If the OEX is going to remain in breakout mode on the 15-minute chart, it needs to find support between 546.55-547 on this first retracement of the day. A 50% retracement of the rise off yesterday's low, however, is all the way down near 544.40, and a retracement could take the OEX that low without being considered a bearish action as long as its form was one of measured accumulation such as a bull flag. The OEX just wouldn't remain in breakout mode if that happened.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:50:59 AM
Bearish day trade close out alert for the QQQ here $37.62. RED #2 $37.60. (Thinking about last night's "Kerry" Red #2)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:48:06 AM
The SOX approached its 200-ema this morning, with that average at 426.43, and with the SOX currently at 420.31. The 200-dma has held some significance for the SOX, with frequent highs, lows, opens, or closes on this average during the late spring and early summer months.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  9:47:57 AM
QQQ wandered into the gap and has just failed to regain 37.70 from below. There be an airball zone here to 37.55, below which we're back in yesterday's range. Trouble is, the short cycle oscillators haven't yet rolled over- at or below 37.70 for another 5 minutes and they will, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:47:56 AM
SOX.X 420.25 +1.45% .... just back under its WEEKLY R1.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:45:32 AM
The TRAN has not been able to match yesterday's high yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:44:44 AM
SMH $33.00 ... slipping back from session high of $33.58 found just after the open.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:43:29 AM
Buying at the open would have been okay. Congratulations to those of you who did. As the Dow tests 10,200 and the Nasdaq daily chart shows a small candle sitting high and lonely above the steep rise off August's low, it's of course time to consider profit-protecting plans, whatever those might be. And for the rest of us, it's about time for the first retracement of the day. TRIN is abnormally low, so bulls should be careful. It could be one of those gain-all-day kinds of days, but this can be a contrarian signal. What I'd like to see is a fall back to support, followed by a rise into a lower high, complete with bearish divergence, that would tell me that the abnormally low TRIN value is a contrarian signal that should be followed by opening a bearish position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:42:26 AM
TRIN 0.28 .... good gravy!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:41:47 AM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert for the QQQ $37.68 .... to break even.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  9:40:35 AM
Look for first QQQ support at the 127% fib line off yesterday's high, currently 37.70, below which bears will be trying for a gap fill to 37.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:37:57 AM
Day trade short alert for the QQQ here at $37.81, stop $37.95, target $37.55.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:32:32 AM
New OEX high as I typed that last post. The OEX is above the 200-sma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  9:32:04 AM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.35 +2.8% .... will close out the 5 SOLD Jan. $32.50 calls on pullback. See last night's futures comments.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:32:03 AM
The OEX opens and charges right up toward yesterday's high. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance lines turn higher, allowing for a higher high, but not proving that one will occur. I think the first retracement of the day, due in about 10 minutes, will tell us much about the markets. I hope it does, because there's the potential for this to be the choppiest of choppy days.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/3/200,  9:23:00 AM
Washington Post says Bush is planning on declaring victory this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:11:56 AM
Although we can't always trust cash markets to open in accordance with futures levels pre-market, futures currently indicate a possibility that markets may open at or slightly above yesterday's high. For the OEX, this would mean an open at or near the 200-sma. For the SPX, that means an open at or near October's high. For the Dow, that means an open at or near the 100-ema.

Yesterday, we saw markets slapped back from these levels, but will we today or was yesterday's action just pre-election jitters? That remains to be seen. With crude gaining and crude inventories due this morning, I'd like to see a pullback to reestablish support and an examination of how the markets react at support before recommending any position, but the markets may not give us the luxury of waiting to make a decision. As I mentioned last night, at yesterday's close, Keltner charts suggested that the OEX was attempting a bounce, so this morning's bounce in futures fits with that speculation. If the OEX gaps above about 542.30-543.60 this morning, that suggests at least a test of 545-545.60 if not the 200-sma, with the possibility that markets could get slapped back again. If the OEX should stall at 542.30-543, however, that presents the possibility of a H&S forming at the top of the climb. We'll take a look at what we see as the markets open, but for now, I don't feel particularly comfortable making a recommendation for OEX options traders. This isn't because I can't make a decision, but rather because I've made a decision that it's dangerous to jump in too soon.

As Keene said in a post on the Futures side, futures aren't acting as if there's any uncertainty in the election results. However, currencies aren't acting so positively, with the dollar losing ground against both the euro and the yen. Lately, our equities have appeared to trade in accordance with dollar strength, or vice versa, so this gives us juxtaposed views of what could happen. Crude rising overnight, the dollar dropping overnight, futures rising, too: this hasn't been the usual pattern, so it makes me leery of advising anything but stepping back and taking a cautious approach to trading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  9:10:57 AM
The move higher in QQQ and the futures could be part of a terminal move in the daily cycle upphase for QQQ, but it's obviously ill-advised to fight the trend in this timeframe. The presidential futures had been favoring Bush all along, though I wasn't watching them closely- and so I don't see the election result as being particularly surprising to the market. Bulls will want to keep snugging up their stops- a simple benchmark for the health of the daily cycle upphase will be yesterday's low. The daily cycle upphase should reverse on a break of yesterday's low. First sign of trouble for bulls will be a break below yesterday's high. Until then, all but the most aggressive daily cycle bears should be hibernating. QQQ should remain bullish above 37.55.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  9:06:40 AM
My delayed USD Index chart is showing a trade at 84.94. Range support has been 84.75-84.80.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  9:03:46 AM
4.14% resistance is in play on the TNX, currenly trading 4.138%. ZN bonds are down .437 to 112.79.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  9:01:07 AM
Gold is up 4.70 at 425.50, with a session high of 426.30. Bonds are strongly lower, TNX +1.42% or 5.8 bps at 4.132%. Foreign currencies are very strong this morning as well. It looks like the binary dollar trade is in play here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  8:56:07 AM
Nymex crude has settled at 49.90, +.275.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  8:40:23 AM
QQQ continues to melt up, currently trading 37.84. Resistance to 37.95-38.00, the June high, is now in play, above which there's resistance at 38.20-.25, 38.65 and 39.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  7:35:59 AM
QQQ is up .56 to 37.73 now, and IB is misreporting the session high. NQ futures reached 1529.5 overnight, currently trading 1519.50, and ES peaked at 1147.5, jsut north of 1144 resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  7:30:35 AM
The US Dollar Index (30 min delayed) is down to 85.37 currently, having again failed to fill last week's opening gap down. December gold futures bottomed overnight at a higher low of 420.1, and are still advancing, now up to 424.60. Silver is up to 7.11, and euros 1.276.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/3/200,  7:16:27 AM
A sea of green, with ES trading 1140.5, NQ 1515.5, YM 10112 and QQQ +.44 to 37.60. Gold is up to a session high of 423.80, silver 7.095, and crude oil up .70 to 50.325. ZN bonds are down .328 to 112.906.

We await the 10AM releases of Sept. Factory orders, est. +.4% and ISM services for October, est. 58.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  6:45:43 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei was closed for a holiday Wednesday, but other Asian bourses gained, as most European bourses have this morning, too. Some of those European bourses draw back from their day's high, however. As of 6:39 EST, gold was up $3.00, and crude, up $0.59 to $50.21. Our futures have climbed overnight, but have dropped off the overnight highs achieved about 1:00 EST. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei was closed for a holiday Wednesday. Most other Asian markets posted gains, with airlines again climbing after crude prices fell yesterday and exporters gaining as the dollar firmed. By the time crude began inching up again in the overnight session, exporters were gaining enough to offset any deleterious effects. An attack against a pipeline in Iraq may disrupt crude flow for up to ten days, the CBNC crawl states this morning.

The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.79%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.70%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 1.11%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.67%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.95%.

Currently, European bourses post gains, but many have drawn back from their day's high even as President Bush announced victory ahead of Ohio's count of provisional and military ballots. European pharmaceutical stocks had gained in early trading.

As of 6:39 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 16.60 points or 0.35%, to trade at 4,709.80. The CAC 40 had gained 12.82 points or 0.34%, to trade at 3,778.66. The DAX had gained 10.45 points or 0.26%, to trade at 4,048.02. All were well off their day's high.

 
 
  James Brown   11/3/200,  2:08:52 AM
The Kerry campaign is still contesting Ohio.

Bush is ahead by close to 120,000 votes in Ohio with 96% of the vote in.

 
 
  James Brown   11/2/200,  1:01:18 AM
The Drudge Report calling the election for Bush.

MSNBC, Fox News has Bush at 269 electoral votes.

The candidates need 270 to win.

 
 
  James Brown   11/2/200,  12:52:34 AM
I hope George Soros is packing his bags for Europe. Wasn't he one of the "elite" saying they would move from the U.S. if Bush won?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  12:10:53 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.50 +0.36% .... there was a seller at yesterday afternoon's high of 85.59.

I wonder what George Soros is doing this evening?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  12:01:39 AM
e-mini S&P with volume at price turned on. Thoughts for the rest of the evening, and tomorrow morning. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  11:51:55 PM
e-mini S&P 1,139.75 ... overnight high and BLUE #8 here.

I've got to start thinking 1,133 is support tomorrow under a Bush victory flag.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  11:32:18 PM
Taiwan Weighted ($TWII) 5,819.75 +1.04% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  11:20:23 PM
FOX News Projecting ... Bush 207 , Kerry 144

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  11:09:06 PM
FOX News Projecting Bush 197 , Kerry 144

e-mini 1,138.00 (10-minute delayed) ... did see a little pullback to BLUE #6 after earlier trade at BLUE #7.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:52:07 PM
NBC News ... saying Kerry probably needs Ohio if he is to win.

Bush holds slight lead 52% to 48% with 47% of state reporting.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:48:14 PM
Fox News still projecting electoral of Bush 193 , Kerry 112

e-mini contract high of 1,139.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:40:04 PM
e-mini S&P trades BLUE #7

If long, would raise stop under BLUE #5.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:35:04 PM
Fox News for Florida ... Bush 52% and Kerry 47% of vote counted, but still to close to call.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:34:20 PM
Mark Davis has a nice long from 1,130 trading over in the Futures Monitor. I usually just have my Options Monitor open and saw Mark over there.

Ooo... e-mini makes evening high at 1,137.50. Electoral projections have been stuck of late as many states starting to report are to close to call and very early in their reporting.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:13:54 PM
Fox News Electoral Projection ... Bush 193 , Kerry 112

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:11:58 PM
e-mini S&P updated chart and FOX News electoral projections at this Link

I've stacked an upper 5-MRT after trade at BLUE #6. Noting that BLUE #12 is pretty close to the cash SPX.X WEEKLY R1.

Also... that whopper of a sell program premium came at around BLUE #8 (1,139.50) today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:06:18 PM
Oh My! do you see where BLUE #12 is at?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:05:00 PM
e-mini S&P breaches BLUE #6. Traders can "stack" this upper blue 5-MRT.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  10:01:49 PM
If long the e-mini, I'd be raising a stop under BLUE #4 and 1,133.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:58:57 PM
Colorado a "swing state" currently favoring Bush according to FOX News. (9 electoral votes)

After years of Democrat Governer, had elected Republican Governor to second term.

It looks like Coloradan's also voted "No" on splitting its electoral votes based on only portions of all electoral votes being handed to each presidential candidate based on percentage of popular vote won.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:55:41 PM
Did anyone see that CNBC exit poll interview with the person that said she voted for Senator Kerry? Her first reason mentioned was that here investments had fallen since President Bush took office. She did say there were other reasons too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:54:31 PM
e-mini S&P (es04z) 1,135.50 at 09:44 PM ... breaches BLUE #5.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:53:15 PM
e-mini S&P (es04z) 1,135.00 at 09:43 PM EST

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:52:23 PM
ABC News projecting Bush 171 and Kerry 112

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:46:58 PM
09:30 PM EST e-mini updated 5-MRT chart. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:38:51 PM
e-mini S&P breaches Blue #4

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:38:12 PM
Fox News ... Bush leading in Florida (27 electoral votes at stake)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:31:25 PM
FOX News Electoral Projection Bush 165 , Kerry 112

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:22:43 PM
e-mini S&P futures (es04z) with upper and lower 5-mrt along with FOX News projected electoral votes. Link

Bush looking a little more bullish with a 5-minute close above BLUE #2. Kerry couldn't quite get a 5-minute close below RED #2.

Need 270 to win

Here's a Link to a table of States and the number of electoral votes of each.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/2/200,  9:13:30 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/2/200,  8:35:44 PM
Three times a charm? Here's the OEX's daily chart that you've seen three times in a row: Link We still see the same mixture of bullish and bearish characteristics. If Tuesday hadn't been election day, I would have given much greater weight to the bearish side since Tuesday's candle can't be considered anything but bearish, particularly when it comes at the top of a climb. I sometimes watch the 240-minute chart. Tweezer-tops and other reversal signals on that time-interval have been fairly good predictors of declines to come, and Tuesday ended with a well-formed tweezer-top: Link However, Tuesday was election day, and some market participants might have chosen to bail ahead of the elections, so we have to factor that possibility into our outlooks.

On a Keltner basis, the OEX ended the day balanced at potential mid-channel support on the 15-minute chart, with that support at 539.60. Fifteen-minute closes beneath that Keltner line set up a potential downside target of 533.60. If the OEX continues to find support at that level, it might climb toward Keltner resistance at 542.30 or might find further resistance from 544.30-545.60. Here's another potential benchmark to use to help measure the action, the fifteen-minute 100/130-ema's: Link

Depending on whether there's a clear winner in the election and perhaps depending on the identity of that winner, one possible scenario might be that the OEX and other markets might attempt a bounce tomorrow morning. If the OEX bounces hard, up past 542.30, it can perhaps push past Keltner resistance at that level, but if the bounce is weak, it's likely that the OEX will get turned back there to retest support. If that retest of support happens, watch those fifteen-minute 100/130-ema's, with a push below those averages confirming the weakness. From this vantage point, ahead of tonight's election results and tomorrow's mid-morning economic releases, a weak bounce and rollover or perhaps even a gap-lower open appear the most likely outcome, but let's see how futures behave overnight before we make up our minds. There's too much uncertainty surrounding the market's reaction to election results to try to form a firm opinion tonight without seeing breadth and other indicators tomorrow morning. The outlook might have completely changed by tomorrow morning.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/2/200,  8:22:37 PM
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