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  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:02:11 PM
Lehman iShares (SHY) $81.93 -0.08% ....

WEEKLY Pivot levels ... 81.93, 82.04, Piv = 82.12, 82.23, 82.31

MONTHLY Piv levels ... 81.57, 81.86, Piv = 82.03, 82.32, 82.49.

Hmmmm.... closes today at WEEKLY S1. Hmmmm #2 ... Monday's gap down to start the month was 82.02

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:43:58 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $46.81 +13% ... last tick in extended session was $47.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:38:42 PM
Hartford (HIG) ... released earnings of $0.85 per share (not comparable to consensus of $0.65). Earnings did look strong as operating income (excluding investment gains and losses) was $468 million, or $1.57 per share, up 40% from last year.

The stock was probably halted as the company disclosed that since being subpoenaed three times by the New York attorney general's office from June to September, it has received additional subpoenas from attorney generals in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio and the Minnesota Department of Commerce. According to HIG's SEC filings, all inquiries relate to broker compensation and possible anti-competitive behavior.

HIG also said it faces 8 private lawsuits related to Mr. Spitzer's chargest against Marsh & McLennan.

The company also said that the New York attorney general contacted the company on October 29 and that the NY ag was probing the timing of a sale of its stock by an executive. On the basis of an internal review, HIG said it determined the stock sale complied with the company's applicable internal trading procedures.

I do see 100 shares traded at $62.00 at 06:29:34 PM EDT. That's where the Pacific Stock Exchange backed their offer off to. Their bid is at $29.77. I'm assuming a trader may have entered a "buy market" order in extended hours and got filled.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:23:01 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  8:42:29 PM
Are you ever afraid you're going to be the last chump to jump on a rally just before prices crater? You're not alone, but those who used took my advice from the Wrap and my 21:02 post last night found they weren't chumps after all, although I certainly worried that would be the case. That advice was to use bounces from the rising trendline off the October low and the 15-minute 100/130-ema's to enter long positions, or to use dips below them to enter bearish ones. In that 21:02 post, I had suggested that OEX traders in particular could use the 200-sma in a similar way as a benchmark. At about 10:15, the OEX dipped down to test that 200-sma and then never looked back again, rising nine points from that test.

Concerns mount, however. No one wants to be the last chump. Those concerns include daily OEX RSI at an overbought level seen only two periods this year, just before the June high was hit and during the late-December, early January push higher, and we all know what happened after those two instances.

However, as I warned several times today, it's dangerous to grab for flying knives. On the OEX, we've had a higher high and a strong trend in place since October 25. Daily MACD has pushed above the signal line. So, until proven otherwise, buying pullbacks seems the right approach, much as I and some of you might be afraid of being the last chump to jump on board and much as it might worry me to type those words. You can bet that with the RSI at overbought levels seen only twice this year, I'll be wary. Each of those times, however, the OEX went on to make a new high after RSI reached those overbought levels and sometimes much after. Don't use this as a market-timing tool. Do use it to manage risk, however.

Nevertheless, perhaps after some follow-through tomorrow morning, markets are short-term overbought as well as overbought on the daily chart. It should be time for a pullback or sideways consolidation. Certainly, there are some monumental gains to consolidate. What's the natural place to expect a pullback to take the OEX? The 200-sma is one likely spot to tag. It's at about a 28% retracement of the rally off the October low, so a retracement back to that level would be a small retracement of the rally as retracements go. Not too much to ask, it seems. However, from this vantage point tonight, with the Nikkei just opening above 11,000 and without access to tomorrow morning's action after the release of important economic numbers, that knife is still flying high, with no sign yet as to when a pullback might occur. We'll look for signs tomorrow morning, so the first post tomorrow might be radically different in tone from this one. However, remember that now, despite the warning offered by the RSI, the trend is up, and bearish plays should be considered countertrend until proven otherwise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  5:32:29 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  4:29:12 PM
Hartford (HIG) $60.41 +1.35% ... Jim noted that HIG was halted. Company was scheduled to report earnings after the bell. Consensus is for $0.65 versus year-ago $1.18.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  4:17:48 PM
HIG Halted News pending

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  4:13:03 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.02 +3.07 ... got so busy with TASR I forgot about BGO near the close.

I'd want to hold this one short overnight anyway, stop as profiled at $3.06 and target for now $2.96.

A strong nonfarm number may have market thinking Fed on a tightening move, Treasuries sell off, and gold gets a knee-jerk reaction lower.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.47 -0.27% sitting right on WEEKLY S1.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  4:11:34 PM
GOOG UBS downgraded and cut price target to $160.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  4:10:38 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Day trade short Bema Gold (BGO) at $3.03, stop $3.06, target $2.96. Will carry overnight.

Day trade long Taser Intl. (TASR) at $43.25. Closed at target of $45.00 ($1.75, or +4.05).

Day trade long Taser Intl. (TASR) at $45.30. Closed at target of $46.00 ($0.70, or +1.55).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  3:58:23 PM
QQQ and NQ just refuse to go along for the ride.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:57:32 PM
If there were a pullback on the OEX, where would you expect it to take the OEX? The 200-sma is an obvious target, especially as it's above the 38.2% retracement of the move off the October low. There are no signs of a pullback yet, however. Instead, it looks as if the OEX decided to do away with the whole right-shoulder-building exercise on a potential inverse H&S on the daily chart and just shoot higher toward the upside target. It's not there yet, as the upside target would have been somewhere near 570-575, depending on where the neckline was when it was confirmed. Sometimes when prices do away with the right-shoulder-building exercise, without the necessary support-building being done, however, there's a need to retrace and retest before moving too much higher. As I said earlier today, though, this hasn't been a place for trying to catch those rising knives today. I continue to believe there's danger for those in long positions, due to the RSI level, but remember that prices can and do continue to move higher once overbought levels are reached. It's just a warning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:57:24 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $46.90 .... remembering that trade at $40.01. (10/28 04:00:58)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:51:10 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $46.34 +12.02% .... threatens to break out of decent 4-month base. Only near-term resistance I see is June 28 high of $48.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:48:59 PM
Swing trade cancel order alert ... Cancel the order to sell the Lehman iShare 1-3 year puts (SHY-XD)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:46:44 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $53.54 +1.19% ... making way above yesterday's high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:45:57 PM
Looks as if Jim got it right about the short-covering into the close on the Futures side--great call, Jim. Those of you with big bullish profits, facing tomorrow's economic numbers, still need to make decisions ahead of the close about whether you're going to take some or all of those profits off the table or hedge them in some way.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:44:24 PM
Yesterday's $9 drop in RIMM continued this morning as shares dropped another three points before bouncing from round-number support at $80. Now shares are up 4.4% on the session and up about $8 from its lows this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:43:26 PM
Bullish day trade target alert .... for TASR $46.00 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:40:19 PM
TASR $45.56 ... BLUE #6 here.

next level is our fitted $45.97. A close above this $45.97 then brings the "zone" from $50.97-$53.16 into play.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/4/200,  3:38:48 PM
Has oil hit a short-term bottom @ $48? as the INDU hits stiff resistance @ 11,300? Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:38:32 PM
Day trade long alert ... for Taser Intl. (TASR) $45.30 here, stop $44.79, target $46.00

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  3:38:01 PM
Nice catch, Tab :)

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/4/200,  3:35:00 PM
Murphy oil seems to have a lead on the WTIC. Could it be signaling that oil has put in a short-term bottom here and that the SPX has topped at 1160? Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  3:30:52 PM
QQQ is testing rising 7200 tick SMA support for the first time since 11AM when it broke above it. A print below 37.60 will be a sell signal on this basis, though the short cycle oscillators are already in a downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:28:31 PM
The OEX exceeded that upside target predicted by the fitted Fib bracket by six cents, so far, so perhaps I didn't fit it quite right, but that exercise still proved to be a good tool.

However, it now suggests that this could be near the top of the move, with an emphasis on "could." Those of you in bullish positions need to continue your efforts to protect profits and also to make decisions about whether you want to hold overnight with important economic numbers due. I'd probably take at least some profits off the table, if not all. I'm conservative and in cases like this, like to take profit, stand back and watch what happens next, realizing that I might miss part of a move the next day. Other people have different trading styles.

The OEX is overbought on a daily basis, according to RSI. There's risk gathering for those in long positions. That does not, however, mean that the OEX is going to turn down immediately. If I were going to try a lottery play for tomorrow with lottery money, though, I'd probably be doing it with a put, but I'd only be doing that with lottery-type funds and not anything that was going to decimate my account if stopped.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:26:18 PM
The strength in WMT today is pushing the RLX to new all-time highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:24:30 PM
The DFI defense index is edging above its early October highs to hit new all-time highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:22:09 PM
The Utility index (UTY) is soaring over the 360 level (+1.9%) and hitting new three-year highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:19:05 PM
Mobile Mini (MINI) is up 9.85% and breaking out over resistance at $29-$30 to hit new two-year highs today. The company reported earnings today with an 18.8% jump in revenues and a 29% jump in net income.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:09:16 PM
Stock traders may want to check out Bisys Group Inc (BSG). Shares are up 2.4% and breaking out of a five-month consolidation. They're also pushing through resistance near $15.00 and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:07:56 PM
Kellogg (K) is breaking out from a six-month consolidation between $40-43. Shares are up 1.8% to $44.06. The next level of major resistance looks like the all-time highs near $50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  3:06:47 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:05:46 PM
Exit alert! OI call play Starbucks (SBUX) is trading into our exit range/profit target of $54.00-55.00. SBUX +2.2% to $54.70 following yesterday's same-store sales report of +11% growth.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:05:18 PM
That OEX 554.96 target from the fitted retracement bracket appears to be more and more possible. Bulls, continue to follow the OEX higher with your stops or make other provisions for protecting your profit.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:03:58 PM
OI call play ITW (+1.9%) is within striking distance of the top of its trading range and our exit/profit target near $96.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:01:58 PM
OI call play DHR is bouncing strongly from the $55 level with a 1.9% rally today.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  3:00:48 PM
OI call play COP (+1.5%) has broken through its short-term (three-week) trend of lower highs. The MACD is extremely close to a new buy signal.

 
 
  James Brown   11/4/200,  2:59:38 PM
OI put play APOL continues to sink (-1.45%) despite the market's rally today. Readers should consider tightening their stop losses.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  2:50:28 PM
GE continues to make new 52 week highs as QQQ holds stalled between 37.75 and 37.65. Volume is low within the narrow range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:48:03 PM
The OEX just lazily rolls down, flattening more than anything while the MACD slopes down. That's not yet what bears want to see because it suggests a greater possibility that support may hold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:46:39 PM
Day trade bullish exit alert for TASR $45.00 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:45:43 PM
TASR $44.83 ... BLUE #5 here.

 
 
  Jim Fabyan   11/4/200,  2:44:51 PM
Ten year notes - TYZ04 low close this week 113.07, if it closes below should help the indexes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:41:44 PM
TASR $44.11 ... BLUE #4 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:41:11 PM
TASR BLUE #3 $43.66 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:40:26 PM
TASR 2 million shares last 10 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:39:57 PM
TASR $43.25 ... day trade bull entry alert.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:38:52 PM
Day trade long setup alert ... for TASR $42.85 +3.65% ... go long on a trade at $43.25, stop $42.50, target $45.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:38:23 PM
The TRAN continues in breakout mode on Keltner charts all the way up through the daily chart. Upper Keltner resistance on the weekly chart is now at 3592.72. The TRAN is currently at 3549.94. The last time the TRAN touched upper Keltner resistance on the weekly chart was in 1998.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/4/200,  2:35:10 PM
I've now corrected the VIX chart in my 14:31 post. (Second link.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:34:58 PM
TASR Nov. $45 calls .... active at $1.05

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:33:36 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $42.85 +3.5% ... sudden jump from $42 ... 700,000 shares in last 5-minutes.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  2:33:33 PM
Alert - TASR announcing 2:1 split
Short interest is nearly 50% of the float

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/4/200,  2:31:53 PM
As I stated in yesterday's MM 11:20 AM. SPX target 1160 and a re-test of VIX October lows of 13. Link Link

At 12:49 PM yesterday I also highlighted that 10,300 on the Dow Jones INDU would present a lot of resistance. I've attached several charts annotated with target levels nearterm. Link Link Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:26:25 PM
Day trade short .... for Bema Gold (BGO) $3.03 +3.41% here at the bid, stop $3.06, target $2.96.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  2:18:46 PM
Nymex crude 48.925 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:17:49 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

PAYX $33.42 +1.95% certainly doesn't seem overly concerned about tomorrow's nonfarm report. Today's data on productivity may have a lot to do with it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:17:42 PM
The OEX is pulling back, but slowly. First possible Keltner support, at 552.86, has been supporting it. Still watching how it will handle 551.91-552.35 next Keltner support. (It's moved higher since my last post.) If the OEX is really strong, that support will hold. A bear's wish would be for a drop to 550.25 or so, and then a climb back to 552 and a rollover from there, below the Keltner resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  2:12:23 PM
Former resistance-turned-support at 37.65 is key here. A short cycle downphase will begin to set up on a break below that level for 5 minutes. Until that occurs, this is just a consolidation below the high. Look for confirmation on a break below 37.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:12:04 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:05:17 PM
Crude's 50-dma is at $48.59. This is usually support for crude costs, although the 100-dma sometimes serves that purpose instead. The latest and steepest rising trendline crosses now at about $47.00, near the last swing high from August. As long as that swing high isn't breached by much and the 100-dma's support holds, crude is still maintaining it's pattern during its climb.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:03:41 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:02:14 PM
It's about time for a pullback on the OEX. Famous last words? The seven-minute Keltner chart suggests that support will be strong from 551.58-551.98, and bulls want that support to hold as support thins out below that. What may happen, however, is that the OEX may fall below it, then rise to retest it, and if the OEX fails there, that would be the time for some aggressive traders to attempt a bearish position, but only if they're willing to be whipsawed. None of that has happened yet. Unfortunately, if the bottom falls out, we won't get that kind of nice confirmation that says, okay, time to try it. The bottom may just fall out without that retest ever occurring. That doesn't mean that I suggest catching those rising knives, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  2:00:30 PM
Crude oil is downt o 49.175 here. TNX is flat, down .2 bps at 4.068%. QQQ is finding support at previous resistance of 37.65, but it's unable to advance past 37.75 resistance so far. The toppiness of the short cycle oscillators is the problem here- do bulls have enough left for a trending move?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  1:56:10 PM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,864 +1.13% ... all-time highs

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:56:06 PM
Do or die time for the SPX. It's touching the top of the broadening formation on the daily chart. Classically, it should never have even touched the top of that formation the third time, but now let's see if that resistance holds. This may be the determining point for other markets, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:53:13 PM
Maybe that 554.96 upside target for the OEX, drawn from my attempt to fit a retracement bracket to the climb off the 10/25 low, wasn't so far off? However, although I'm sounding like the woman who cried wolf, some charts have suggested a 553-554 upside target for the OEX, so keep those profit-protecting plans in place if you're in a bullish play. This begins a zone of S/R on the weekly chart with a number of 2001/early 2002 highs, lows, opens, or closes in this zone.

Is it time for a bearish entry? I think it's going to be . . . but I'm not ready to catch that rising knife just yet.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/4/200,  1:47:52 PM
Overbought on the SPX? Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  1:46:42 PM
Nymex crude is currently lower by 1.225 at 49.65, off a low of 49.275. QQQ has touched a high of 37.72. I wish that my E-wave skills were better, as there appear to be 5 waves off the 10:45 AM low on the 100-tick QQQ. 30 min channel resistance is up to 37.80, and with the oscillators getting toppy and the short cycle oscillators maxxing out, this move should be growing tired in the 37.75 area.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  1:36:56 PM
Major SPX resistance ahead
The SPX is about to test its highs for the year and the 50% retracement of the complete bear market drop from March-2000. This 1160 level is going to be very strong but a breakout would be very strong. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  1:32:56 PM
QQQ's chipping away at the highs, trying for 37.75. Volume needs to pick up a bit here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  1:31:11 PM
Where are we?
First - I am pleased with the potential new direction after this election. But this euphoria is getting a little overdone.

PC, VIX and low volume tells me we need a break. I've close my SPX Put credit spreads and am selling Call credit spreads today.

Yes oil could come down and your reasoning is solid. But world peace has not broken out. It is just that our national will has been reinforced and that is great for the long run. However we are geting ahead of ourselves, IMHO. Dave

I am on your side Dave but this is the time of the year where overdone become relative and excesses can continue. Let's hope it continues for the next two months because 2005 could be a real challenge.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:29:20 PM
In last night's Wrap, I suggested that traders could use the 15-minute 100/130-ema's across many indices as benchmarks for bullish/bearish decisions. The Nasdaq this morning tested those averages again and now has risen from them, but now approaches yesterday's high. Have profit-protecting plans in place for this test. The Nasdaq is now at the top of yesterday's gap (just above it as I continued typing), and as I suggested in that Wrap, gap resistance could hold. The Nasdaq could also be stopped at an equal high.

The NDX is not participating in this run-up to the same degree, not yet at the top of its gap or nearing yesterday's high, so the big caps aren't participating to the same degree as mid- and small-caps. Be careful.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  1:25:25 PM
R2K futures are printing 600 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:23:25 PM
The OEX is pausing at the 60-minute upper Keltner resistance, currently at 552.06. When you study that chart, the OEX's pattern looks like it's straining up toward that number, so unless the OEX is about to go vertical, a possibility, it needs to broaden and strengthen its formation if it's going to continue to climb. It's still displaying bearish Keltner and price/MACD divergence. Bulls want to see the OEX maintain five-minute closes above 550.80 to maintain the breakout status on the seven-minute chart, but the 60-minute one shows that strongest support may be all the way down at 548.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  1:12:04 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  1:11:36 PM
QQQ continues to hold just belothe 37.65 resistance area. If bulls can clear it, look for next resistance at the upper channel bands, lined up at 37.75. A break below 37.55 support will target 37.35 next. The short cycles are now in overbought territory, but no sign of weakness yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:11:24 PM
We still can find conflicting evidence almost everywhere. We have a broadening formation on the SPX's daily chart, and those are usually bearish. We have several forms of resistance coming together just at and over 1160 on that chart. We can't always trust these broadening formations to break the way they're expected to break, as recent history has taught us.

On the weekly SPX chart, we have a well-formed inverse H&S that's just been confirmed this week: Link The trouble is, we have some indications that markets are growing severely overbought and these continuation-form inverse H&S's aren't as trustworthy as bottoming formations. We won't even know until tomorrow's close whether this one sticks, either, since the SPX could drop back below the neckline by then. They can't be ignored however, and someone isn't. The SPX shot up after confirming this one.

Do you know how to weigh the two conflicting formations? I don't. To me, they're indicative of indecision among those with more money than I have, or we wouldn't be seeing conflicting formations. If you're in bullish plays, congratulations and keep those profits! Don't let them slip away. If you're contemplating bearish positions, make sure you have evidence that you're in the right because we could see some unhealthy but prolonged climbs before a pullback.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:03:56 PM
The OEX just hit upper Keltner resistance on the 60-minute chart. It was this resistance that turned the OEX back from its high yesterday. The OEX has in the past created a breakout signal on the 60-minute charts, but tests of the upper Keltner resistance on this chart are relatively rare, and happen only in extremely overbought situations. Overbought can become more overbought, so don't try to catch rising knives here, but bulls should continue to follow the OEX higher with their stops or make other plans to protect profits. TRIN is just neutral, not really wildly bullish on this rise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  1:02:33 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:54:20 PM
Shorts in the SPX feeling a little pressure here. 1,153.93 +0.92%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:52:26 PM
Altria (MO) $52.00 +4% ... surges above its 200-day SMA.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:51:18 PM
The OEX reaches again toward upper Keltner resistance on the 60-minute chart. Bulls, keep following the OEX higher with your stops or enact other profit-protecting plans. While I believe that it's possible for the OEX to continue climbing, perhaps even for days and perhaps even to a new high, the 9-period RSI over 70 (74.65 currently) that I mentioned earlier today and the low volatility levels that Marc just mentioned on the Futures side of the Monitor offer a warning that markets are overbought in a way that they haven't been for months--at least for the OEX with regard to its daily RSI. Neither of these (RSI or volatility indices) can be used for direct market-timing, but they do warn us to pay attention.

One problem for bulls is the one I mentioned last night in the Wrap with regard to the SPX. That's a broadening formation on that chart, so that each new breakout or breakdown is soon reversed. If the SPX's version holds true to predicted patterns, it will break down somewhere near or below 1160. These haven't always been good predictors of price action lately, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:46:18 PM
Russell 2000 Value Index (RUJ.X) alert 996.29 +0.58% .... just above level #1 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  12:46:05 PM
The VXO is currently down .18 at 13.22, with QQQ -.78 at 18.41. Bulls need to hold support at 37.34. 37.65 was the level of the previous high.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  12:43:22 PM
No injuries in plane collision in Britan. Planes were on the ground. So much for soundbite reporting.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  12:42:17 PM
FOX now stating that Arafat is not officially dead but is being kept on life support at present.

This goes along with my prior statement that I believe they are officially "postponing" his death until they can get things ready for the change in control.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  12:40:17 PM
Alert - two planes have collided in Britan. No word on the number of casualties.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:39:41 PM
5-year yield ($FVX.X) taking notes here.... up 1.5 bp at 3.34%

10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 0.4 bp at 4.066%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:38:06 PM
Russell 2000 Growth Index (RUO.X) alert $309.06 +0.44% .... trades level #1 here.

Nonfarm payroll less than 24-hours away.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:35:59 PM
Have you ever noticed after a steep climb or decline, that when you fit a Fib bracket to the climb, some inflection points seem to line up as if that Fib bracket were always there? There might have been obvious consolidation where the 50% retracement level turns out to be for example. Some consolidation patterns do tend to form at the 50% level. In my inexpert way, I fit a Fib bracket to the OEX's climb off its 10/25 low, and came up with a potential 555-ish upside target. Link Please don't take this as any kind of expert guidance, and continue with the profit-protecting plans I've been suggesting today. I'm just fiddling around with the charts, but let's see how it works out. Jeff is probably better at this than I am.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  12:34:16 PM
The 60 min channel is finally turning up now. Next resistance lines up at 36.64, followed by 37.70 QQQ. Provided that 37.34 doesn't break, the bias should remain up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:33:09 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $53.15 +0.43% Link ... back to challenge its 200-day SMA ($53.15). Morgan's gone on a trade at $56. Link

With three days of trade in November, NYSE volume up 7% from October. NASDAQ volume up 4% from October's daily average.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:31:33 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.28 +0.4% ... back in the green

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:25:35 PM
Has been some size traded in the SNPS Jun. $17.50 calls (250 : 121) this morning at $2.00.

SNPS $16.86 +0.47% .... Link

Might be a jittery, yet profitable short hedging a bet into Friday's nonfarm. See that gap on the bar chart. That 3rd gap might well be the "exhaustion gap." Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:19:11 PM
The OEX finally did confirm that inverse H&S on its five-minute chart this morning. The upside target would be at about 552. I don't trust continuation-form inverse H&S's and I particularly don't trust this formation because of the zooming around that the OEX was doing prior to its formation, but this does give those currently in bullish plays another idea about potential upside. The 60-minute Keltner chart does show a potential for 551.78 to be reached, but some other charts' characteristics would give that possibility an iffy rating. If you're in a long position from a bounce from the 200-sma, I would certainly be watchful as 550.75 is approached, as that's top Keltner resistance on one chart and then would continue to follow the OEX higher with my stops or make other profit-protecting plans.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  12:18:58 PM
Session low for Nymex crude at 49.85 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  12:16:18 PM
QQQ bounced from a higher low a t 37.34- this favors the bulls here, if they can take out the previous high of 37.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:14:58 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:06:41 PM
So far, the OEX is showing bearish divergence, Keltner style, at the top of this climb. We may soon get an inkling as to whether the climb is finished, however, as the OEX is rising toward Keltner resistance lines now at 549.42. If that resistance holds the OEX, it may turn lower again and confirm that bearish divergence.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:02:41 PM
200-day SMA alert ... Wal-Mart (WMT) $55.28 +1.5% ... breaking out from this summer's base.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:02:05 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:58:19 AM
30 min channel support is up to 37.10 QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:47:22 AM
Session high for QQQ right on 60 min channel resistance of 37.55, currently trading 37.42. A break back below 37.30 will put the bears back in business, but if it bounced from there, then the young 30 min cycle upphase will be confirmed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  11:46:41 AM
Russell 2000 Value (RUJ.X) 882.10 +0.10% .... edging green and new all-time highs! Overhead supply should be limited.

It's 19.1% retracement is at 886.15 to be exact. Let's challenge it with 887.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:45:42 AM
The IUX has tested, but hasn't been able to move above the 50% retracement of its recent steep decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:42:27 AM
The SOX has bounced, but still has trouble with the 100-ema at 409.16.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  11:42:04 AM
Gold Link ... today's trade at $432 is enough for a triple-top buy signal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:40:35 AM
So far today, using the OEX's 200-sma as a benchmark (bullish above/bearish below) has worked well, but if in bullish positions, I would have profit-protecting plans in mind in case the gains aren't extended. If the OEX turns back from here, it will have created bearish divergence, Keltner style and will be susceptible to a downturn.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:34:56 AM
New high on the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:32:49 AM
The OEX is now breaking above Keltner resistance at a line now at 549.15. If it's able to produce seven-minute closes above this Keltner line, it's setting up a possibility of moving toward 550.48, but if in bullish positions, I would certainly have profit-protecting plans in place as yesterday's high is approached.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  11:31:26 AM
Alert - Statement on wires now from Palestine officials denying Arafat has died
Considering they denied he was ill I would caution following these reports too closely.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:29:50 AM
The 30 min channel is beginning to tick up, while a new short cycle upphase has commenced. 60 min resistance hasn't budged, still 37.54.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  11:25:49 AM
ALERT - Arafat has died
News report hitting the wires as yet unconfirmed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:23:34 AM
QQQ is now nose-to-nose with descending 30 min channel resistance, with 60 min resistance up at 37.54. If bulls can hold within 5 points of this level for another 5-10 minutes, the 30 min channel downphase will abort.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:22:22 AM
The OEX has broken above a descending trendline off yesterday's high. Bulls now want to see a higher high to confirm a break above what was potentially a bull flag, if a badly shaped one.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:15:28 AM
On this OEX push higher, I'm looking for signs of price/MACD divergence and Keltner divergence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:14:34 AM
The SOX is trying to regain its 100-ema on the daily chart, with that average at 409.14, and the SOX at 408.65.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:13:51 AM
Here's the first break. Session high for QQQ, ES and YM futures.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:13:20 AM
The TRAN is breaking higher, but hasn't yet matched Monday's 3521.74 high, with the TRAN currently at 3511.99. The 15-minute Keltner chart also suggests that the TRAN will have created bearish divergence, Keltner style, if the TRAN doesn't hit 3530.60, at least.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  11:12:49 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:10:53 AM
QQQ is working on 37.30 resistnace now, with a slight pickup in volume. The short cycle downphase is stalled and showing a slight uptick. 30 min channel resistance is 37.41.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:07:45 AM
Volume is very light, still not confirming a buy-'bot program off the double bottom intraday low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:07:04 AM
The TRAN is attempting an upside break above the bullish right triangle on its five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  11:04:26 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:03:38 AM
QQQ is now above descending 7200 tick SMA resistance for the first time all day.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  11:02:28 AM
Alert - More news from Canada on PFE. News hitting the wire says there is NO specific link between the 14 deaths and Celebrex but the Canadian government is going to research it further. It could be just a coincidence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:02:08 AM
What's holding these markets aloft? Helium? Advdec line is flat, at -407.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:01:08 AM
Here's the move higher for QQQ, but the volume so far isn't there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:59:18 AM
Now the OEX is shooting higher after breaking to the downside out of that diamond shape. Always distrust sideways trading after breaking out of a formation. This is still more chop.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:57:22 AM
Careful, bears. QQQ is showing an intraday double bottom- a setup that has served as 'bot bait in the past. Look for a high volume move abvoe the 37.30 level to confirm that it's going to hold.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:56:08 AM
The OEX has broken to the downside out of that diamond on the top of its five-minute chart. (See my 10:49 post.) It hasn't fallen far, however, trading sort of sideways instead.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:54:27 AM
Swing trade place put order alert for Pfizer .... let's do this for those currently long 4 of the PFE Jan. $25 puts in the MM Profiles.

Place an order to sell 4 of the PFE Nov. $25 puts (PFE-WE) at $0.70 per contract.

They are bid/ask $0.20 x $0.25 right now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:52:53 AM
The TRAN is having difficulty moving much above 3500, stopped by the top of Tuesday's gap. However, it's forming what may be a bullish right triangle on the five-minute chart, with a rising trendline support under today's series of higher lows and with sort of discernible top horizontal trendline at about 3503. The TRAN has sent some candle shadows up above that level, so it's difficult to be sure exactly where the top trendline would be.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:49:07 AM
There's a diamond shape at the top of the OEX's five-minute chart: Link Let's see if these work any better on the five-minute chart than they did recently on daily charts on the tech-related indices. They're supposedly bearish and supposedly break to the downside, but that's not what happened last week with the diamonds on those daily charts.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:47:37 AM
QQQ failed at another lower high, but has yet to break and hold below yesterday's low. 30 and 60 min channel support are down to 37. The short cycle oscillators are still descending and only now reaching oversold territory.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:41:37 AM
eCost.com (ECST) $13.06 +19.2% Link ... never heard of them. Online retailer of close-out and refurbished products (over 100,000 products in seven merchandising lines) up on strong quarterly revenue report.

Said it lost $892,000, or $0.06 per share, on revenues that surged 70% to $43.4 million from $25.5 million.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:37:19 AM
Jonathan! .... do you know of a publicly traded Canadian Drug exporter?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:36:58 AM
Chop, chop. No direction yet. Nor, when studying the OEX's 5- and 15-minute charts, can I determine any kind of shape that gives me many clues. Is that a bull flag pulling back from yesterday's high? If so, it sure is a sloppy one. Is that an inverse H&S still trying to form on the five-minute chart? If so, it's a continuation-form one and it's a sloppily formed one, too.

I'm as afraid of the next person of missing a great trade, but I just can't define this. I see lots of reasons to be distrustful of further climbs without at least a pullback to confirm support, but those reasons aren't great market-timing ones and don't preclude further (unhealthy, perhaps) climbs.

Those who have to be in a trade and are so inclined can use the OEX's 200-sma as a benchmark, perhaps confirming a decline below the 200-sma by a decline below the 5-minute 100/130-ema's at 546.37 and 545.98, respectively. It's as good a bull-above/bear-below benchmark as we have right now, but expect whipsaws if you're trading today. If you're considering a bearish trade, have profit-protecting plans in place as the 15-minute 100/130-ema's are approached at 543.51 and 542.28, respectively.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:35:42 AM
Aha! Just seeing Jim's 10:21:07 ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:33:50 AM
President Bush expected to outline plans for next 4 years at 11:00 AM EDT.

I can't be sure, but perhaps he is doing to address the drug industry? Reason I might think this is HMO's are rocking higher, while drugs under pressure on broad scale.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:32:34 AM
Every drug stock looks almost the same on intra-day basis .... TEVA $23.41 -3.02%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:31:28 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $28.17 -4.07% .... bouncing from session low of $27.20. "Celebrex worries" is all I hear.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:23:39 AM
The OEX has fallen back to retest its 200-sma at 546.06.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:21:19 AM
Yesterday's low of 37.14 is providing support, but the synchronous cycle downphases still in progress suggest that it will fall.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:21:12 AM
The Nasdaq currently tests the rising trendline off the 10/16 low, with the 15-minute 100/130-ema's just below at 1989.83 and 1984.58. Lots of potential support here, but a decline below the 130-ema would roughly correspond to a move below yesterday morning's gap, so would be a significant bearish development, too.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/4/200,  10:21:07 AM
Rumor hitting the wires that Bush will announce something related to drug importation at his news conference in a few min. This is given as the reason for the drug weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:20:29 AM
Drug Index (DRG.X) 301.62 -1.81% .... has been hit from 308.

Not finding any news at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:18:26 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $40.71 -3.66% .... also defensive.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:16:55 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $27.96 -5.12% ... suddenly defensive from $29.75. "Thanks Joe"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:16:21 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:14:37 AM
Gold is holding above 430, currently trading 431.80 off a high of 433.80. HUI is up 1.98%, with Dec. silver up 3.77%. Nymex crude is down .20 at 50.675.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:11:59 AM
Here comes the test of 37.14 QQQ. The 30 and 60 min channels are now lined up at 37.01, and because of the 60 min cycle downphase, I don't expect the bounce off a move to 37.01 to be particularly bullish- so long as the 60 min channel continues to descend, the bias should remain down below 37.30 QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:10:05 AM
So far, yesterday's broken OEX support is holding as resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:08:24 AM
The OEX never did pull back to form a right shoulder for an inverse H&S. It dispensed with that and rose right back to retest yesterday's support line to see if it holds as resistance today. Some Keltner evidence suggests that it might not hold and that the OEX might attempt a push up to test 548.60 or even yesterday's high. Other suggests that it just might hold, so the evidence is mixed. Those in bullish positions should have profit-protecting plans in place from the current level up to yesterday's high. Unless the OEX moves above 549.82, it will have created bearish divergence, Keltner style, on the current swing high.

Despite my 9:59 post, we have to look at what's happening today, while always keeping that evidence of overbought conditions on our radar screens. That evidence might convince us to watch our long positions, perhaps entering smaller positions than usual, setting account-appropriate stops and adhering to them, but still participating in upward movements if they're offered and appear sound. Today, I have mixed feelings about the soundness of the bounce. In fact, I'm downright worried about it, with the advdec line down at -99.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:03:49 AM
All-time high alert for the HMO Index (HMO.X) ... what a comeback from 860.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:02:20 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:01:29 AM
The short cycle downphase is still in progress with QQQ bumping its head on descending 7200 tick SMA resistance at 37.30. A break above that level for longer than 5 minutes will stall out the short cycle dowhphase, and begin raising the likely 30 min cycle bottom.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  9:59:49 AM
The Fed has 13.25B in various repos expiring today, and has just announced 14.5B worth of new money to replace it for a net drain of 1.25B today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:59:43 AM
Warning, bulls: On the OEX's daily chart, the 9-period RSI has just moved above 70, to 70.86 as I type. The last time RSI did that was in June, climbing above 70 on 6/07, and falling back below it 6/08. The OEX retreated a bit and then climbed into its 6/24 peak before tumbling all the way to its August low. RSI often serves as a leading indicator, so a downturn now through the signal line shouldn't convince you to plunge into puts with abandon and not to use any stops, but this does serve as a real warning of overbought conditions.

Previous to this, the last time this RSI was over 70 was in late December and January. At that time, RSI dipped below 70 and the OEX pulled back some, and then RSI rose again and the OEX did, too, to a new high. When RSI finally dipped below 70 for the last time, OEX price rose again into a slightly lower high. Again, this is proof that RSI is offering a warning and that there will eventually be follow-through to that warning, but that you better wait for price to confirm. Two times in one year RSI has moved above 70. We'd better pay attention.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:51:57 AM
VIX.X 13.80 -1.7% .... Daily pivot levels as follows ... 13.25, 13.66, Piv = 14.19, 14.60, 15.13

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:50:36 AM
The IUX, the S&P Insurance Index, is slightly higher, but still below the 50% retracement of its recent steep decline. We're watching the IUX as a sort of indicator index of strength or weakness in other indices, as its steep plunge and then rebound have been echoed in other indices. We would expect the IUX to find resistance at the 50% retracement, but this expectation is a bit weakened by the strong "V" shape of the recovery off the low. Now, the IUX may be rounding over, but that's unproven and uncertain as yet. It may instead just be consolidating beneath resistance before another push higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:47:29 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $42.24 +2.10% .... Houston City Council Approves funding for Houston Police Department to purchase up to $4.7 million in TASER devices. Initial order is said to be approximately $3.7 million and will be delivered in Q4 of 2004.

TASR said it was the largest single order received in company history.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  9:45:20 AM
QQQ testing 37.20 support here. 60 min channel support is down to 37.10 and 30 min support is at 37.00. Because of the ongoing synchronous short, 30 and 60 min cycle downphases, it looks early to try to catch the falling knife. 37.00 looks like a good candidate for a potential 30 min cycle bottom based on the current oscillator setup, if the market delivers it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:45:08 AM
The TRAN has risen to test 3500 again this morning. There's a sort of weird inverse H&S, continuation form, on its 15-minute chart, but it's so badly shapen that it's difficult to tell if the TRAN has pushed above the neckline or not. Still, although I don't trust continuation-form H&S's or inverse H&S's too much, and this one is so badly shapen that I don't trust it at all, it does tell us that bulls are trying to mount another climb in the TRAN. Keep watching to see if there's follow-through or a rejection, either of which might be important to the markets.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:43:02 AM
SOX.X 406.91 -0.77% ... WEEKLY Pivot here at 407.18.

QQQ $37.22 -0.51% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:38:42 AM
The OEX's three-minute chart shows a possibility that the OEX will pull back from the current 547-ish level into a possible right-shoulder level for a possible inverse H&S.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  9:36:12 AM
QQQ printed two downside doji spikes to the 37.20 support level, printing a session low of 37.24. A wavelet upphase is trying to form on the bounce, but declining 7200 SMA resistnace at 37.33 is holding it back. Look for a directional move on a break above 37.44 for 5-10 minutes or more, or below 37.14. The 30 minute cycle channel will follow either of those moves.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:35:43 AM
The SOX is following through on chip weakness seen in Asia and Europe in the overnight markets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:34:42 AM
The OEX opens and moves up toward a retest of yesterday's broken support. Right now, support near 544.60-545.20 look stronger than nearby resistance, so that it looks easier for the OEX to rise to test that 548 level than to decline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  9:28:03 AM
Look for support at 37.20 and 37.14 QQQ, with 30 min channel support currently down to key confluence at 37.01. A short cycle downphase is in progress with half its range left to go before reaching oversold territory.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/4/200,  9:24:39 AM
Dateline WSJ - PARIS -- Yasser Arafat has lapsed into a coma in a French hospital, a senior Palestinian official said Thursday, a day after the Palestinian leader was rushed to intensive care as his health deteriorated sharply.

The official wouldn't say when Mr. Arafat lost consciousness. Two Arafat aides denied he was in a coma, but the senior Palestinian with close access to the medical team insisted Mr. Arafat was comatose.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  9:06:30 AM
Session hight for gold at 433.80, ditto silver at 7.439.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  8:33:37 AM
Equities are still in the red but trimming their losses. Ten year notes are down slightly to unchanged.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  8:33:02 AM
Prelim. Q3 productivity 1.9% vs. 1.7% expected.

Initial claims 332K vs. 340K expected.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  8:17:41 AM
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) - The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged Thursday amid worries about the strength of Europe's economic recovery.

The bank's 18-member governing council left the main refinancing rate at 2 percent - where it has been since a half-percentage point cut in June 2003 - during a meeting at its headquarters in Frankfurt.

Euros are at a session high of 1.2874 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  8:05:18 AM
Equities are lower, ES trading 1143.5, NQ 1503, YM 10132 and QQQ 37.30. Gold is up 3.80 to 429, silver 12.4 to 7.28, ten year notes .03 to 113.32, and crude oil is down .025 to 50.85.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 340K, and premiminary Q3 productivity, est. 1.7%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  6:51:56 AM
Good morning. In its first opportunity to react to the U.S. presidential elections, the Nikkei rose, but most other Asian bourses declined, pressured by rising crude costs and weak chip stocks. European markets succumb to some of the same pressures this morning, most trading in the red. As of 6:42 EST, gold was up $2.90 and crude down $0.12 to $50.76. U.S. equity futures drifted slightly lower. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher Thursday morning in its first opportunity to react to our presidential elections due to its holiday Wednesday. It tested 11,000 early in the session, and then tested it twice more throughout the day, finally giving up in early afternoon. The Nikkei closed higher by 58.46 points or 0.54%, at 10,946.27, but closed at its low of the day.

With some market watchers believing President Bush's policies might increase spending among U.S. consumers, exporters rose. Auto manufacturers climbed. However, market researcher IDC trimmed its global chip sales forecast, citing oversupply. That action caused chip-related stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kyocera to decline.

Other Asian markets mostly traded flat to lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.04%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.14%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.34%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.21%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.66%.

Currently, most European bourses slip lower, too, ahead of rate decisions by the ECB and Bank of England. Neither is expected to change rates. Chip-related stocks are also under pressure in Europe. Oil majors perform well. Banks Credit Suisse Group, BNP Paribas, and HVB all made cautious comments about the financial, investment, or trading environments, with performance in that sector mixed. Credit Suisse Group was gaining while the others declined. EADS announced that it was raising its 2004 revenue target, but order intake dropped.

As of 6:42 EST, the FTSE 100 had lost 12.30 points or 0.26%, to trade at 4,706.20. The CAC 40 had declined 16.55 points or 0.44%, to trade at 3,753.38. The DAX had lost 15.96 points or 0.40%, to trade at 4,023.08.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:37:24 PM
Bush Stocks? ... AMGN Link ESRX Link

Bulls did well in ESRX earlier this year as I remember.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  10:05:25 PM
Pivot Matrix levels for the very broad NASDAQ Composite (weekly and monthly) as well as the blended Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) (weekly/monthly) and the subset Russell Growth (RUO.X) (monthly only) and Russell Value (RUJ.X) (monthly only) at this Link

Here's an updated relative strength bar chart from StockCharts.com. I've had questions regarding "what symbol set do I use" to get relative strength charts at StockCharts.com. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/3/200,  9:02:41 PM
The OEX closed just above its 200-ema Wednesday, having drawn back from its high of the day: Link Traders can use that 200-sma as a benchmark, going long on retreats to and bounces from that average and entering bearish positions on rollovers beneath it. Be prepared, however, for whipsaws until the OEX settles on its ultimate direction.

Like many indices, the OEX's 15-minute 100/130-ema's coincide roughly with an ascending trendline off the late-October low: Link Those who might be in bearish positions should have profit-protecting plans in place as that trendline and those MA's are approached, if they are. Those who want new bullish positions should watch for a possible bounce from that trendline and those MA's, but should then be aware of the possibility of a H&S forming, with profit-protecting plans in place as the right-shoulder level is approached again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  8:50:48 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  8:38:42 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/3/200,  8:12:05 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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