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  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  8:11:02 PM
Closing U.S. Market Watch with 5-day % gain/loss at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  7:22:40 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  5:42:37 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  5:32:45 PM
Good observation James (03:52:25) .... SHOP Link ... I'll set an alert just above $35.62.

GOOG did poorly out of the gate too. Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  4:22:14 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

This week's CLOSED trades at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  3:55:25 PM
Here we go again: potential reversal signals on several indices today, including the TRAN (doji at the top of a climb)and the NDX and COMPX (classic doji sitting above the climb). Those have to be confirmed by Monday's action, of course, but they offer another warning to bulls to protect profits. The OEX looks as if it will leave behind an upper shadow today, something it's been doing with some regularity over the last week, but still climbing nonetheless.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:52:50 PM
Russell 2000 Value (RUJ.X) 892.64 +0.03% .... Same thing here. LEVEL #1 at 886.15 to be exact.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  3:52:25 PM
It's interesting to see that Shopping.com (SHOP) has not participated in the market rally and the strength in retail stocks. SHOP is nearing its opening price from the IPO near $23.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:51:34 PM
Russell 2000 Growth (RUO.X) 312.83 +0.65% ... same things as the blended Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X).

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:50:12 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 604.19 +0.34% ... with 12 minutes left to go in today's session, it is probably going to close above LEVEL #1 of 598.17.

I'll be a buyer of partials on Monday, but I'd sure like to see a pullback.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  3:49:13 PM
We've been seeing bearish divergence, Keltner style, on the three-minute Keltner channels all day. Each approach to the upper resistance line shows increasing weakness: first a big breakout this morning, then Keltner resistance held. Now, the OEX appears to be turning back at lower Keltner resistance before even touching the upper channel. This has nothing to do with the price highs. Price can reach a higher high, but rather the relationship of a price high to the channels. This suggests increasing weakness, but I don't know that the weakness will be capitalized upon today. If I were short from a lower level, I'd be worrying about carrying that position into the weekend and be likely to want to close it by buying to cover, even at a loss, and some others might be feeling that way, too.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  3:48:40 PM
Oil refiner Sunoco (SUN) has been downgraded to an "avoid" by S&P but it's not affecting the stock price. Shares are up 1.4% to $76 and its MACD is nearing a new buy signal.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  3:47:08 PM
Hmm... reading something here that says gold @ $434/oz. is the highest closing price since 1988.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  3:44:43 PM
Our target on OI call play ITT was the $86 region. Traders may want to consider some profit taking before the weekend. The stock hit $85.45 this afternoon and is now trading at $85.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  3:43:12 PM
Who is going to win the exit poll on the indices? Shorts trying to cover or bulls trying to capture their profits? If they're equally weighted, we will continue this battle into the close, but if one side begins to win too much ground, the other might soon capitulate and the move might accelerate. There's just not enough information to know which will happen.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  3:40:55 PM
Jeff mentioned Dow-component MMM earlier. The stock is up a strong 4.25% and breaking out over its simple 40-dma, simple 50-dma, and the exponential 200-dma on top of round-number resistance at $80.00.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:36:50 PM
Taser (TASR) $47.03 +0.46% ... little bid toward the close.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  3:33:15 PM
Not much of a push higher on the OEX, was it? From this point on, it may be that technical analysis won't be our best tool to use, as end-of-day action might be governed by who's feeling the most panicked: bulls anxious to protect some gains or bears anxious to stop the pain.

  Jim Brown   11/5/200,  3:25:09 PM
GOOG IPO share lockup of 39.1 million shares coming to market on the 15th is putting pressure on GOOG just like we have been expecting. This will triple the float and with current lockup holders seeing the drop from $200 they could be eager sellers. Another 25 million on Dec-15th, 25 million Jan-15th and a whopping 189 million released on Feb-15th.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  3:21:22 PM
I was just speculating whether bearish or bullish traders would be more afraid to go into the weekend with their positions, and thinking that bearish traders might be, depending on whether those were new positions initiated today or were positions initiated much earlier in the week. Before I could get this entered, though, the OEX had already begun to rise. Guess we'll see whether it holds or is sold into, though.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  3:18:49 PM
The TRAN may still be forming a bearish right triangle. It hasn't confirmed yet.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:16:50 PM
Should be stopped out alert GOOG $169.40 has the GOU-KO bid $6.20.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:16:01 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:07:54 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  3:03:52 PM
The rising trendline off the 11/02 late-day high crosses at just under 556.

  Joe Eifrid   11/5/200,  3:03:11 PM
I started building a short position on DDS today. They reported quarter sales this week that are 3% below what estimates are showing currently. With today's gains they are selling for over 30 times earnings. Sales for the quarter will be down more than 6% from last year. Just a idea.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  3:01:29 PM
Raise day trade stop alert .... in the GOOG call options. Sell them if GOOG trades $168.25.

That would be about $6.00 at the bid.

  Jim Brown   11/5/200,  3:00:12 PM
Consumer Credit = $9.8B, (est $7.5 B, last -$2.4B)

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  2:58:06 PM
This whole churn lower should be the 60 minute cycle rolling slowly over as the 30 min cycle continues weakly along its downphase. A break above 38 for longer than 3-5 minutes should reverse that bearish picture, while a break below 37.60 will confirm it.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  2:54:25 PM
Formations at the tops of the indices' climbs have been morphing from one pattern into another today. The TRAN's may be morphing into a bearish right triangle at the top of its climb--horizontal support line near 3560, a series of lower highs defining the top trendline.

  Jim Brown   11/5/200,  2:51:21 PM
RIMM getting crushed again today at -9.36. RIMM was downgraded on Tuesday and Nokia chose a competing technology for some of its new devices. Serious profit taking in progress.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  2:50:29 PM
Crude closed above the 50-dma again after reaching down to test it, actually piercing it today. The 50-dma has been the prime source of support in crude's climb, although it occasionally reaches down to test the 100-dma, too.

  Joe Eifrid   11/5/200,  2:40:26 PM
Jim, Don't know if you caught it but's VNO's interest in Sears is an "economic" interest made up of put and calls. From VNO's 10Q. They made out like the bandits they are today! Thought this might be of interest to your readers. Interesting play. Heck, VNO is down. They should be up because they are going to make a bundle on those calls if they are trading them.

Sears (s) +11.00
VNO -0.77
KMRT +5.00

Comments from 10Q

In August and September 2004, the Company acquired an economic interest in an additional 7,916,900 Sears common shares through a series of privately negotiated transactions with a financial institution pursuant to which the Company purchased a call option and simultaneously sold a put option at the same strike price on Sears common shares. These call and put options have a weighted-average strike price of $39.82 per share, or an aggregate of $315,200,000, expire in April 2006 and provide for net cash settlement. Under these agreements, the strike price for each pair of options increases at an annual rate of LIBOR plus 45 basis points and is credited for the dividends received on the shares. The options provide the Company with the same economic gain or loss as if it had purchased the underlying common shares and borrowed the aggregate strike price at an annual rate of LIBOR plus 45 basis points.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  2:32:41 PM
The VXO is inching up toward 14.50, at 14.35 as I type, but really, nothing definitive is happening anywhere I look.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  2:26:11 PM
If the OEX continues lower, watch that rising trendline near 555.40 for possible support. The five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 555.38 and 554.41, respectively, and could provide support, too.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  2:21:52 PM
02:19 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  2:19:23 PM
Session high for Nymex crude at 49.50 here.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  2:17:38 PM
If I look at the OEX's 15-minute chart, I see an index consolidating sideways while MACD cycles down. That's bullish. If it look at the five-minute Keltner chart, I see resistance massing overhead, up to 558.45, and it looks stronger than the strong, but not as massive support near 557. That suggests that it's easier for the OEX to fall, perhaps to test that rising trendline off the 11/02 late-day low, with that trendline now at about 555.30. Mixed evidence.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  2:16:58 PM
QQQ hasn't been going up, but it's showing a great unwillingness to go down either, and this is on the bears' nickle in light of the short and 30 min cycle downphases in progress.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  2:13:37 PM
We'll do 2 billion on the NYSE Bob if oil closes at its lows of the session.

Oil's up right now, but we'll see.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  2:07:16 PM
The OEX just drifts sideways out of the symmetrical triangle. Any hopes that the triangle would help us define what we're seeing were ill-founded.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  2:07:02 PM
Session high for silver here at 7.528, up 2.02% for the day. Nymex crude is up to 49.275. TNX is up 3% at 4.19%. Look for 4.14%-4.16% confluence to act as support.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  1:59:06 PM
TZOO $90.39 -1.5% ... backed off from RED #0 at $92.60.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  1:56:08 PM
The OEX attempts a punch below the equilateral triangle's lower support, but we're within the stop-running time of day, so don't put complete faith into this being a sign of a potential rollover into a lower high. In fact, as I typed, the OEX bounced back into the triangle, I see.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  1:55:57 PM
Google (GOOG) $171.50 -7.14% ... just can't seem to get above RED #3 (172.20) at this point.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  1:50:48 PM
Volume continues to decline for QQQ. Nymex crude is up to 49.025 currently, with gold holding above 434 at 434.40 currently. On QQQ, 30 min resistance is unchanged at 38, 60 min resistance slightly lower at 38.16.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  1:46:06 PM
I'm beginning to favor the settle-into-equilaterial-triangle theory that I proposed earlier today. At least that will tell us something about when there's a breakout. If that triangle is valid, the trendlines are narrowing toward an apex and there should be a breakout soon. Since we're also right in that stop-running time of day, there's every chance the first breakout will be a false one, so be prepared to switch opinions if the OEX breaks to one side and then reverses course. The OEX tests the bottom of that triangle now at 557.35 or so and the top is at about 558.03. A downside break will soon meet 554.70 potential support while a break to the upside will soon meet resistance at this morning's high. Be careful.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  1:42:14 PM
Hmm. There's an inverse H&S on the VXO, neckline at about 14.50. Might be interesting to watch, at least. There was bullish divergence as the head was formed, but the right shoulder is extending a bit too long to the side. A strong pop in the VXO would not be good news for the bulls, while a rejection of the inverse H&S would not be for the bears.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  1:41:07 PM
Price has stalled, as has volume on QQQ. On the YM, it looks like the top of the right shoulder on the head and shoulders pattern discussed earlier above the 10330 neckline.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  1:32:58 PM
I feel as if I'm calling the shots on a race among inchworms. Now the OEX is back testing the Keltner resistance I mentioned in my 13:23 post. If that holds, bears may get their lower high (but not the needed bearish price/MACD divergence). If it doesn't, we could get a test of the equal high level or a move to a higher high. The OEX is trying to push above that Keltner resistance as I type, but we haven't seen a seven-minute close yet.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  1:23:41 PM
The OEX is attempting to steady and bounce from that support at 556.88 (see my 13:11 post), but now it faces nearby strong resistance, too, near 558. The rising trendline off the last 11/2 low and the confirmation level for the lower high now coincide: Link Downside targets would be the 38.2% retracement at 552.10 and the 50% retracement at 549.65, with that 50% retracement coinciding roughly with the 15-minute 100/130-ema's that are sometimes important in the OEX's trading pattern. A 61.8% retracement would bring the OEX back to test the 200-sma, but I don't know that I'd expect that steep of a retracement just yet.

Remember that all this conjecture is thrown out the window if the OEX achieves a higher high, but not necessarily if it achieves an equal high, depending on what we see there.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  1:11:50 PM
The OEX does turn down again, although the wanted (by bears) confirmation of a lower high with bearish price/MACD divergence has not occurred. There is bearish divergence, Keltner style, on the three-minute chart, but that's sure not much confirmation in the face of such a strong climb. Ther's going to be potential strong support now beginning near 556.88, and extending down a bit, and I'm wondering now if we won't see the OEX settle into a symmetrical triangle at the top of its climb.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  1:00:59 PM
The SOX is perhaps forming a continuation-form inverse H&S on its three-minute chart, but if so, it probably still needs a right shoulder. I don't trust these continuation-form inverse H&S's, but watching it at least gives us insight into how much strength the bulls can garner or how much weakness underlies the SOX action.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  1:00:18 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:56:50 PM
New high, lower high? For the OEX, we should have at least a hint soon.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  12:55:03 PM
The 30 min cycle downphase is stalled, but the oscillators in the futures and for QQQ are still in bear rolls. A failure below 38.00 QQQ should confirm it, and as the top of 30 min channel resistance, I expect bears to defend that area vigorously. A break higher will have to contend with 60 min channel resistance at 37.18.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:52:44 PM
The OEX tests Keltner resistance on the three-minute chart, but the 15-minute chart still shows a possibility of a rise all the way up to 558.37. If the OEX is stopped at either level, it will have produced a lower high, but an unconfirmed one as yet. Not until the OEX falls below about 555 will it have broken the ascending trendline off Wednesday afternoon's last low, and not until it falls below 554.72 will it have confirmed the lower high. Those who might have jumped into a bearish play this morning still have some tense moments ahead, but with hope remaining, and those who are in bullish plays are in the same spot. No confirmation either way.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:49:50 PM
Day trade long alert ... for 2 GOOG Nov. 175 calls (GOU-KO) at the offer of $7.10, target an option price of $10.00.

Set a stop if GOOG trades $168.

GOOG $171.38 here.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  12:49:13 PM
The short cycle oscillators are taking the first steps of their new upphase as the wavelet oscillator begins to trend in overbought. QQQ's testing 37.90 resistance here.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:48:11 PM
Bearish day trade stop alert TZOO $92.00

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:47:47 PM
MMM $81.15 +3.91% ... high of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:45:43 PM
Need a profit taker in TZOO $91.26 -0.55% to show up real quick.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  12:42:32 PM
A small wavelet cycle upphase is peaking here for QQQ, and while the short cycle upphase hasn't kicked off, it will if QQQ holds at or above 37.80 for another few minutes. 7200 tick SMA resistance is at 37.85 currently, making this a key level for determining direction for the rest of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:41:36 PM
IBM alert $93.38 +1.07% ... moves to high of session, exceeding reverse head/shoulder pattern objective, breaking above "zone of resistance."

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:33:48 PM
Yield curve was really flat in early going, but look at that 30-year start to sell off. Could underpin a bid for stocks.

5-year up 17.3 bp

30-year up 11.6 bp

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:29:57 PM
That was a stunted move down, smaller than I expected (see my 12:16 post for an expectation of a pullback to 555.50 or so before another push higher.) However, I now expect the attempt to push higher again, perhaps up to 557.60-557.80 but maybe even toward 558.90 or so, one chart suggests. Bears want a lower high; bulls a higher one.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:19:20 PM
Pullback toward OEX 555.50 (not sure of exact downside) may be beginning.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:17:45 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Current 5-day NH/NL ratio for the NYSE extemely bullish, but also at higher level where we'd expectsome profit taking. Good "excuse" to take part of that MWD off the table, but I'll get back in as it has treated bulls well. Still long one just in case there is no pullback.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:16:17 PM
There's a possibility now of an OEX pullback toward 555.50 and then another push toward 557.80 or so.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  12:14:00 PM
QQQ is bouncing from 37.61 support, but the short cycle oscillators continue to point south. That will change on a break above 37.90.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:13:45 PM
The OEX did bounce, following my best guess scenario from earlier. It's at first Keltner resistance, and this is a nail-biter to call for me. Will this hold or will the OEX rise up toward 557.60-557.80 resistance? I'd guess it's going to rise higher, toward 557, but we'll have to see. (Note: began rising as I typed.)

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:11:49 PM
The SOX hasn't quite risen to the 200-ema or the top of the wedge (see my 9:55 post for a chart), but it did attempt a push higher. I'm watching ascending trendlines on both MACD and RSI for the SOX, watching for trendline breaks.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  12:09:44 PM
Copper prices have broken above resistance at $1.35 a pound and into the gap down from mid-October. Copper is currently up 1.44% to $1.366.

Phelps Dodge (PD) is only up 22 cents to $92.71 after yesterday's breakout above $90.00.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  12:07:56 PM
The OEX is trying to steady just above 554.40 (see my 11:49 post), but it's unclear yet if it will manage to steady. I'm seeing bullish divergence on the one-minute chart, too, as it does make that attempt. Let's take a look at likely resistance if the OEX can manage a bounce. The one-minute chart shows massive Keltner resistance just above the OEX's current position, but if it can manage a push above that, strongest nearby Keltner resistance appears to gather near 556.50 and then again near 557.60-557.75. Bears would like to see the OEX bounce up to that 557.50-558 level and then roll over from there, while bulls would like to see a new high, of course.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:06:15 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   11/5/200,  12:05:15 PM
Temple Inland (TIN) is trying to bounce from a potential double-bottom near $57.50. Today's 1.7% gain and breakout over the simple 10-dma and the $60.00 mark looks somewhat bullish. The MACD has produced a new buy signal.

  Jim Brown   11/5/200,  12:02:04 PM
Speech by Fed Governor Susan Schmidt Bies
Financial Supervision Issues Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  12:01:32 PM
Bullish swing trade partial exit alert ... lets take a profit in one (1) of the MWD Apr. $50 Calls (MWD-DJ) at the BID of $5.10.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  11:59:29 AM
We're about to see if that 554.40-ish support holds on the OEX, sending it into a bounce into a lower high, or if that tepid bounce from a few minutes ago was the bounce into a lower high.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  11:59:09 AM
OI call play ITW hit $95.85 this morning. That's only 15 cents from our target at $96.00. Let's hope that's not the top in this cycle of its trading range.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  11:56:48 AM
Google (GOOG) 170.00 -7.8% ... session/month lows

  James Brown   11/5/200,  11:56:04 AM
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) is up 1.5% and gapping up above resistance at $80.00.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  11:55:10 AM
Don't forget about GOOG's next lock up expiration on Tuesday, November 16. An extra 39.1 million shares will become available, which will more than double the number of shares in the float.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:52:22 AM
QQQ is breaking the prior low and now walking down the descending 30 min channel support. Next support is down at 37.62, followed by 37.51.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  11:50:45 AM
Day trade short alert for TZOO $89.20 here, stop $92, target $82.70.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  11:49:31 AM
Back. The OEX is now attempting a bounce from the bottom of this morning's gap, but the OEX may have to test the waters between here and 554.40 before it really gets a bounce going. Want-to-be new bears hope to see a bounce into a lower high, complete with bearish divergence. Bulls want to see a higher high.

My problem is that the OEX may have already seen its bounce up into top-of-the-gap resistance. The 15-minute MACD is just now crossing into bearish mode. My best guess is that support from here to 554.40 or so will hold, though, long enough to produce another bounce attempt, but my best guess just may not be good enough in an environment I expect to be choppy.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  11:47:40 AM
Family Dollar Stores (FDO) is also moving higher. FDO has broken through its exponential 200-dma and is now challenging the simple 200-dma. FDO +1.9% to $31.04.

  Mark Davis   11/5/200,  11:47:21 AM
Jim GOOG is a good example of the old adage "Always take profits at +100%"... not necessarily close the play out but at least take partial profits.

  James Brown   11/5/200,  11:46:47 AM
99cent Only Stores (NDN) is up 4.5% and breaking out over the $16.00 level.

  Jim Brown   11/5/200,  11:44:33 AM
GOOG getting hammered today with a -$12 loss.

  Jim Brown   11/5/200,  11:42:53 AM
EBAY dropped from Bear Stearns focus list. Down -2 at present.

  Jim Brown   11/5/200,  11:33:38 AM
Alert - Rumor hitting the wires about a nuclear accident in Russia

Update, it appears this was reported earlier about a malfunction at a Russian plant but getting a new spin on rumors of a radiation leak. Russia is denying and claims they are going to restart the plant tomorrow.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:32:56 AM
30 min delayed view of the USD Index at this Link . Worth a look, even on this delayed basis.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  11:31:35 AM
I'll be away for a few minutes. I'm having charting difficulties and will have to return home to my other computer.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:26:09 AM
Dec. gold hit 435 there.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:23:41 AM
New highs for Dec. gold futures at 434.50 here. HUI is up 1.22% to 236.58. CAD futures are up to .8343.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  11:16:04 AM
The TRAN had presented the possibility of developing a H&S at the top of its climb, but it instead dispensed with the right-shoulder building and is falling. This is on a three-minute chart only, but I'm watching to get a sense of market sentiment.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:15:24 AM
QQQ 37.80 in play now.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  11:13:13 AM
Careful now, OEX bears. The OEX is now moving closer to the gap from this morning, and gap support could kick in at any time.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:11:41 AM
There break of 7200-tick SMA support took place on light volume- that's why the price is still hovering uncertainly. Volume is picking up as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:09:29 AM
QQQ is now below 7200-tick support, and the 30 min channel has stalled. Within a few minutes at or below 37.93, the 30 min channel will roll over. Next support is at 37.80.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  11:04:59 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  11:04:39 AM
I'm stepping away for about 10 minutes. I'll be working on a computer without access to my email for the next hour or two, so those subscribers with urgent questions should contact another of the writers.

Those in bullish OEX positions need to be concerned about vulnerablity to 554-555. If a deeper push gets started, the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally is down near the 200-sma. I would hope, however, that we would first see a bounce into a lower high before such a retracement was begun. This current pullback is tepid so far.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  11:03:59 AM
QQQ's losing 37.95 and now testing rising 7200 tick SMA support, below which 30 min channel support is at 37.80. A move below 37.93 SMA support for longer than 5 minutes should roll the 30 min channel back down. Look for resistance now at 38-38.05.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:57:34 AM
December fed funds futures (ff04z) 97.875 -0.05% ... predicting a 50% chance of 2 rate hikes by expiration.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  10:54:47 AM
Looks like a lower high on that bounce, but I'm staring too hard. The short cycle oscillators are trying to roll over for QQQ.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:53:52 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  10:50:59 AM
QQQ is bouncing above 38, just as the short cycle channel was starting to roll over. Look for a directional break either above 38.20 or below 37.95, with first support now 38.0.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:50:41 AM
Swing trade raise bullish stop call option alert ... Rasing a stop on BOTH (2) of the TASR Dec. $45 Call (QUR-LI) to $3.00.

TASR $46.89 +0.44% here.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  10:46:51 AM
The new 38.2% Fib retracement of the zoom off Wednesday's afternoon low is at just over 554 for the OEX. The climb has been so extreme that support lines have separated quite a bit and it's difficult to ascertain where best Keltner support might lie. However, there's a support band from 553.50-555.25. That's a wide band, but is the best information that Keltners will give for a while. We still have no confirmation that a retracement will occur--just vulnerability to one. If inclined to jump into a bearish OEX options trade, you're jumping into a possibly shallow pool here, and I'd be concerned about the bottom of this morning's gap, too, and be ready to bound right back out of that pool if no retracement occurs.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  10:37:37 AM
Gold has added to its gains and is testing yesterday's highs, Dec. e-minis up 2.60 at 433.40 here on volume of 2229 contracts. HUI is up .75% at 235.48.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  10:36:15 AM
Looks like the bears defended the double top. A break below 37.95 QQQ should trigger the sell 'bots- look for a volume spike to confirm it if we see the price break.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:33:49 AM
Swing trade LEAPS call option alert for 3M and 1 January 06 $85 call (WMU-AQ) at the offer of $5.30. target $99.

MMM $80.75 here.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  10:31:03 AM
QQQ retesting the previous high and failing 3 cents shy.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:30:43 AM
Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) 142.34 +0.57% ... upside alert I had set here.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  10:29:23 AM
Weekly Keltner resistance at 559.99. We'll have to wait for the close to see if it holds on a weekly basis.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:26:12 AM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $41.10 ... continues to impress among the regional banks.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  10:25:33 AM
Just because it's interesting: Has there been another period recently when the OEX shot up so strongly without barely a pause? Scrolling through the daily charts, I did find another instance in December last year, and interestingly, the rally began from 522.34 (current one, 521.90) after the OEX had been consolidating for a couple of weeks just above 520. The OEX then shot up to this year's high in January, but first it paused near 540-542, printing one of the few red candles printed along that climb, just as the OEX paused this time in the same area, if only momentarily.

The OEX then began climbing again. Along the way, however, the RSI moved above 70, into oversold territory and then down again below it, making the final move below it on January 27, the day that the OEX printed an equal year's high before beginning the tumble into March's low. The OEX didn't give up easily, printing a series of lower highs into early March, lower highs that would have stopped out most bearish traders. As I said yesterday, this RSI action often leads, and so shouldn't be used as a market-timing tool, but because it leads, it can warn us to take protective action. Perhaps participate in further gains, but do so with smaller positions? Do so with tighter stops? Make up your own minds how you want to handle this and what's appropriate for your trading style, realizing that further gains could accrue but that we've been offered a warning of a need to consolidate if not pull back.

Don't try to catch those soaring knifes, though.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:21:41 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

NASDAQ looks on track to trade over 2.2 billion. Here's a market/snapshot from 03/11/04 when NASDAQ traded 2.17 billion. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  10:19:39 AM
7200 tick SMA support is up to 37.81, while 30 min channel support up to 37.62. Both the 30 and 60 min cycles are still rising, but QQQ is in process of flattening its rise at a lower high. If they bulls can't reach the post-data high of 38.18, we should see a retest of the session lows shortly thereafter.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  10:12:58 AM
The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart is showing support thinning a bit down to the bottom of this morning's gap. Is it possible that the OEX will retrace to the bottom of the gap? There's now a bearish MACD cross on the three-minute chart, but from above signal, and you know anyway that "sell" signals can't be trusted in a trending market, don't you? This morning, for example, we had a bearish MACD cross on the one-minute chart with the MACD turning down all morning, while price was creeping just a little higher. The trouble is, the trend will stop at some point and the sell signal will count.

If there is a retracement, it could be an ugly, choppy one, with panicked shorts trying to exit and with panicked want-to-be-bulls trying to buy on every dip.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:08:19 AM
Bearish day trade exit alert for Bema Gold (BGO) $3.02 at the offer. (did tick at $3.03) but dollar is turning back red.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  10:04:34 AM
The 6/24 high on the OEX was at 558.77. By the way RSI is higher now than the level it reached on 6/08-6/09, before falling back below 70. The OEX went on to make a higher high after that, on 6/24, before it finally capitulated and plummeted to the August low. That's why this RSI level (9-period) gives me the heebie jeebies on behalf of those in bullish trades.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  10:03:05 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  10:00:43 AM
A 7B weekend repo adds 750M net for the day from the Fed's open market desk.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:58:30 AM
Bema Gold (BGO) update alert $2.99 -0.99% .... I can't be certain that anyone got filled at $2.90 in pre-market.

Lower stop to $3.03, leave bearish target at $2.96. Regular session low has been $2.97, high has been $3.02.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  9:55:43 AM
Here's where the SOX is, in the demilitarized zone between the support of the 100-ema and the resistance of the 200-ema: Link A break above the 200-ema and the top of that rising wedge (supposedly bearish, but you know how poorly that's predicted action over the last couple of years) will represent an upside breakout that would suggest a test of the 200-sma to come. A downturn there suggests a retest of the 100-dma, then of the bottom of the channel and 400, if that interim support fails. Right now, though, the SOX is in the middle of support and resistance. Not a place to leap in either direction if you're not already in a play, in my opinion.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  9:52:36 AM
QQQ bottomed at 37.80 support, on point north of the 7200 tick SMA. Look for a lower high on this bounce to setup another more aggressive test.

The Fed has 6.25B in overnight repos expiring today. No word as yet as today's operations.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  9:50:34 AM
The TRAN is hitting the top of this channel: Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:50:13 AM
VIX.X 13.76 -1.5% .... DAILY Pivot levels ... 12.57, 13.26, Piv = 13.64, 14.33, 14.70.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  9:45:21 AM
There's no evidence yet that supports my gut feeling that the OEX could soon retrace down to 552-553, so bears shouldn't jump into a countertrend bearish trade based on my gut feeling. However, bulls should be aware that there's some vulnerability to that level, as shown by the 15-minute Keltner chart. If that's all that happens, the OEX has done nothing bearish, but instead has just tested the support of the breakout level on that chart, but we won't know until that level is hit, if it is.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:44:00 AM
Utility Index (UTY.X) 357.99 -1.03% .... sector loser early. Dividend payer.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:40:53 AM
Hartford (HIG) $62.18 +2.91% .... opened for trade. Ugh!

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:39:41 AM
Hartford (HIG) $60.41 .... delayed opening.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  9:39:16 AM
7200-tick support for QQQ is 37.79, which lines up with yesterday's high. We have a Finger Formation on this morning's QQQ, and it's rapidly approaching do or doo doo time for the bulls. QQQ needs to stay above the 7200 tick SMA.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:37:53 AM
Broker/Dealers (XBD.X) 141.40 -0.09% .... going to see some profit taking.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  9:37:06 AM
Running a Fib bracket on the runup from Wednesday's afternoon low to this morning's high, I come up with a 38.2% retracement at just above 552, so any who are looking for a bearish entry (no signs yet that it's a good idea) might not see a retracement all the way back to the 200-sma. With the OEX so close to the nice round number of 560, I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to run it up there this morning, but as yet there's no definitive sign of what might happen.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  9:36:33 AM
Gold is now 70 cents in the green at 431.50, silver at a session high of 7.469. HUI is down fractionally. QQQ is fading back within its rising 60 min and 30 min channels. Above 37.80, the bulls are only seeing a correction of this morning's froth.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:32:09 AM
Lehman 1-3 year (SHY) $81.75 -0.2% ... is opening tick

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  9:31:42 AM
We have a gap higher on the OEX. Be careful of an exhaustion gap. Bulls, keep those profit-protecting plans in place.

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  9:27:25 AM
5-year yield ($FVX.X) ... jumped to as high as 35.70, or 3.57%. Now... that's right at our fitted 38.2% retracement of 3.553%, which is also the highest yield trade since the last nonfarm payroll number.

As such, we should expect the Lehman 1-3 year iShares (SHY) to open somewhere around the $81.76 level.

  Stephen Tetreault   11/5/200,  9:25:56 AM
From my vantage point folks I’m somewhat concerned about the current hyped and manipulated rally , as we are very over-extended here on the charts 60/120/180/daily and weekly in a diminishing profit cycle outlook for corporations and we have seen a horde of earnings warnings amongst cloudy and dismal guidance moving forward. So quickly we forget. We are in a rate hiking environment and our deficits are growing by leaps and bounds as the dollar weakens. Firms are still very reluctant to hire, and spend the cash they have horded by slashing and burning their expenses, most often the big expenses cut were employees. We continue to see commodity inflation everywhere, hence I see very little tail winds for stocks in this environment; not to mention the fact that many investors are either already fully invested or are pulling money out to meet tuition bills increasing costs to live and other life-bills. The talking-butt heads point to TrimTabs.com which stated that investors (I say hedge funds and manipulators etc., not retail investors, as savings is at a record historical low) have poured $1.8B into stock funds this week with $1B going into ETF stocks alone over the past three days, the fund inflows more than doubled last weeks numbers and money was being withdrawn out of bond funds (by the oil players/oil producers the Saudi’s etc.); which has helped to lift the under lying pegged players to absurd levels (JMHO).

The looming question is the blind-bull back and the bad-news bears been forced into hibernation; I’m not so sure yet, as two days does not make a post election mega bull rally;.and if the trend changes today on the back of better than expected jobs numbers then I will need to change and refocus my game plan will be to holding my nose and buying the dips. Right now I’m on the fence; a doubting Thomas as the technicals are sketchy and I’m skeptical of a sustained rally from this launching point, the fundamentals are worsening and the outlook is very cloudy...time will tell.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  9:02:43 AM
On the currency markets, there was a quick move down (stop-running) in the USD/JPY about a minute before the report was out and then a quick zoom up as it was released. By the way, almost all of those gains in the dollar against the yen have been undone since the release. Hence my concern about the possibility for a pop-and-drop day on U.S. equities.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  9:00:24 AM
I didn't expect to see gold bouncing so quickly, but it's back up to 428.50, -2.30. The low at at 425.20 has held so far.

  Mark Davis   11/5/200,  9:00:21 AM
Somebody always knows, eh Jonathan?

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  8:59:37 AM
Futures turned higher after the 8:30 release of nonfarm payrolls and unemployment numbers. As often happens when there's a breakout on the Keltner charts, we may get follow-through this morning. Often, however, such follow-through is short-lived and the higher open and perhaps quick move higher afterwards is a setup for either sideways consolidation until the mid-channel Keltner lines rise and catch up with price or even for a pop-and-drop day.

For those already in bullish positions, pay particular attention to guarding your profits. Without a pullback, I don't see a new bullish entry here as the OEX moves into congestion on the weekly chart, not so very far below the year's high. For those who want new bearish entries, understand that until proven otherwise, those should be considered countertrend, despite that dangerously high daily 9-period RSI level and dangerously low volatility levels. I'd wait for a sign that the euphoria had abated before considering such an entry. We may or may not get such signs before a pullback begins, and a pullback may or may not begin today. Watch carefully.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:57:06 AM
This from a friend who's a professional bond trader:

Bonds started selling off at least 3 minutes before the release

We commented on the desk that the report was out

  Jeff Bailey   11/5/200,  8:46:14 AM
Bearish day trade close out alert ..... for Bema Gold (BGO) ... Stick a bid out there at $2.90.

Last tick in pre-market is $2.90, but let's close out on the opening tick.

BGO's WEEKLY S2 is $2.87 with WEEKLY S1 at $2.96.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:46:08 AM
Bonds and equities have pulled back very little from their first surges. Gold and silver continue to make new lows, last for Dec. gold at 425.20.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:34:29 AM
Well, at least one program trader had ESP at least 5 minutes before the official scheduled release, managing to successfully frontrun the governmnent reports. Bonds have dived, with TNX now up 14.7 bps to 4.215%, a 3.61% move in a under 2 minutes. Session highs across the board, QQQ +.53 to 38.15., gold down 2.80 to 428, ES +8.75 to 1169.25.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:31:40 AM
Nonfarm payrolls 337K.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:31:07 AM

8:30am U.S. OCT. TEMP HELP JOBS UP 48,000




8:30am U.S. OCT. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.3%, UP 2.6% Y-O-Y



  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:28:40 AM
TNX is up 2.4 bps at 4.092%.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:28:27 AM
Session low for gold, session high for R2K futures.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  8:27:22 AM
Bonds have dropped to a session low, and YM and NQ are hitting highs. If it's an early leak of the report, then the report should be good, based on what I'm seeing here. We'll find out in 3 minutes.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/5/200,  7:45:09 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1060.5, NQ 1519, YM 10296 and QQQ +.09 to 37.71. Gold is down 90 cents to 429.90, silver flat at 7.38, ten year notes down .015 at 113.25 and Nymex crude up .20 to 49.025.

We await the 8:30 release of nonfarm payrolls for October, est. 175K, the unemployment rate, est. 5.4%, hourly earnings, est. .3%, average workweek est. 33.8 and at 3PM, consumer credit, est. 7B.

  Mark Davis   11/5/200,  7:30:26 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out of short play @ 1161, +0.00

  Tab Gilles   11/5/200,  7:20:27 AM
Euro dollar chart: Link

  Tab Gilles   11/5/200,  7:14:31 AM
Bullish on semi's via Profund SMPIX. Link

  Mark Davis   11/5/200,  7:10:11 AM
Day Trade Exit Point Alert -
Short @ 1161, lower stop to 1161

I refuse to start the day out in the hole again. Futures are suddenly ramping as the opening bell approaches and we have the expectation of a "good" Non-farm Payrolls Report. We could get an early spike that will be sold into but I doubt we will suddenly tank before the report comes out so this is a precautionary move with the hope of entering short at a higher level if stopped out. I'm not ruling out the possibility of going long but consider it to be very risky to jump on a rally that has moved +70 points in 8 days. Having said that, a break above 1163 could cause another wave of short covering and I don't want to be part of that wave.

  Linda Piazza   11/5/200,  7:05:20 AM
Good morning. Almost uniformly across the globe, bourses gained. The strong performance on U.S. bourses yesterday and lower crude costs buoyed those bourses. As of 6:55 EST, gold was up $0.2 and crude, up $0.23 to $49.05. Our futures drifted sideways to slightly down, with the ES and NQ contracts gaining in the last hour, the ES to an unchanged level and the NQ to a $5.50 gain. The YM contract remains in the red. More detail about Asian and European bourses follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped almost to 11,050 Friday morning, and coiled near its opening level all day. It closed higher by 115.50 points or 1.06%, at 11,061.77. Easing crude prices and gains in U.S. equities prompted the rally in the Nikkei. According to one article, OPEC increased output by 0.5% for October, with a Venezuelan official stating that global output exceeds demand. Exporters such as Canon, LG Electronics and Honda gained, as exporters usually do when U.S. bourses perform well. According to a newspaper article, Sanyo Electric Company will now supply carrier Orange with handsets, initiating mobile-phone operations in Europe, and Sanyo gained 1.5%.

Most other Asian markets posted gains, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.20%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.11%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.25%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.94%. China's Shanghai Composite was flattish, gaining only 0.03%.

Currently, all European bourses post gains, with airlines benefiting from lower crude costs. Techs tended to gain. Otherwise, individual companies reacted to earnings, news, or analysts' upgrades or downgrades. Video games makers Infogrames Entertainment and Atari soared after both reported earnings, with Infogrames' sales reportedly at the high end of forecasts and Atari reaffirming its outlook of moderate growth for the year. The gains came despite Deutsche Bank's reiteration of a sell rating on Infogrames. German insurer Allianz earned an upgrade from UBS and had earned one yesterday from JP Morgan, and was gaining this morning.

As of 6:55 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 16.60 points or 0.35%, trade at 4,744.90. The CAC 40 had gained 23.99 points or 0.64%, to trade at 3,786.44. The DAX had gained 34.55 points or 0.85%, to trade at 4,075.93.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:20:16 PM
Lehman 1-3 year iShares (SHY) here's our "fitted" retracement chart on 60-minute intervals where I've thrown in the MONTHLY S2 level. That "overlap" at $81.50 begins to present a problem as it relates to the time that has passed, but I think a decline to there, before next Friday, might have our puts trading $0.80-$0.90.

Thus my thinking to cancel the open order to sell at $0.60 in front of tomorrow's payroll numbers.

here's the chart Link

  OI Technical Staff   11/4/200,  10:10:21 PM
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