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  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:18:28 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.14 -0.63% .... last tick in extended session was $3.14, but saw very little trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:11:51 PM
Google (GOOG) $168.70 -2.23% .... last tick in after-hours was $165.28.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:08:55 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  6:54:38 PM
Alert - MSFT to announce search engine on Thursday to compete with Google.

It will also have the same PC file search capability as Google just announced. You can bet the announcement will be huge and take a lot of air time for the rest of the week. With Googles 39.1 million share lockup release on Friday that will triple the current float the odds of a Google drop are very good.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  5:26:57 PM
Cisco CEO says sees Q2 revs up 1-3 pct from Q1 Tue Nov 9, 2004 05:23 PM ET (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , the biggest maker of equipment that directs data over the Internet, expects current-quarter revenue to rise 1 percent to 3 percent from the prior period, the company's chief executive said on Tuesday.

CEO John Chambers' forecast implies fiscal second-quarter revenue of $6.03 billion to $6.15 billion, vs $5.97 billion in the first quarter. He did not provide a per-share profit forecast.

Analysts, on average, expect Cisco to post a second-quarter profit of 22 cents a share, within a range of 19 cents to 23 cents, according to Reuters Estimates. Revenue was pegged at $6.21 billion, on average, within a range of $6.08 billion to $6.38 billion.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  5:22:52 PM
Link to Cisco conference call still continuing: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  5:19:37 PM
I was listening to a paraphrase of the call and flipping channels so I did not hear the entire comment. All I heard was the summary that their raised guidance was less than analysts had expected. I imagine it was just the comment that they were seeing an improved business climate.

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/9/200,  5:12:24 PM
I was wondering what they said Jim... I knew it had to be something good because after printing a low of 19.10 CSCO suddenly jumped to 19.40, now back to 19.32. The Nov 2 swing low is 19.16 and I thought they were going to take it out for sure... they still may I suppose but that was a pretty good pop off the lows.
That little bit of CSCO news also resulted in a sudden +2 point spike in ES.
CSCO now back to 19.40... whatever they said investors seemed to like it.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  5:08:19 PM
Alert - CSCO guiding slightly higher (+2%) at the end of their call

Unfortunately this is LESS than analysts expected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  4:50:17 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  4:38:54 PM
Alert - Allstate (NYSE:ALL) announcing a new $4 billion stock buyback

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  4:37:25 PM
CAKE announceing 3:2 split

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  4:14:07 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Closed out/sold the remaining one (1) TASR Dec. $45 Call (QUR-LI) at $9.00. This call was purchased on 10/25/04 for $3.00. ($6.00, or +$600.00). As a benchmark, TASR was trading $51.00 as call bid $9.00.

Swing trade bullish call (1/2 position) for the Tyson Foods Apr. $15 Calls (TSN-DC) at the offer of $1.60. Targeting $20.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  4:11:40 PM
KANA earnings = -0.12 , est -0.13

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  4:11:07 PM
CSC earnings = +0.68, est +0.66 Guidance unchanged for +10% growth in 2005

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  4:05:17 PM
Alert - CSCO earnings = +0.21 , est +0.21

Inventory down, inventory turns higher. Margins 67.2% and inline. Revenue light !!

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/9/200,  4:03:07 PM
I agree Linda (16:01 post) this fight between the bulls and bears cannot go on forever.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  4:02:08 PM
A great description of today's doji star, Linda.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  4:01:37 PM
Congratulations to those bulls and bears participating in the giant tug-of-war today. You each held your own, neither giving way. I suspect by tomorrow afternoon, one side or the other will tire.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  3:58:48 PM
RealNetworks (RNWK) $6.12 +16.3% ... traded as high as $6.80 today as bulls speculate that RNWK may be next inline to settle with Microsoft. RNWK is seeking up to $1 billion ($5 per RNWK share) in damages on the belief that its shareholders lost revenues and market share from Microsoft's monopolistic powers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  3:53:46 PM
We're going to have to begin calling this the "Season of the Doji." Looks as if we're getting another one today on the OEX's daily chart. From tonight's perspective, I rather favor an outlook for tomorrow that says we punch down toward 552-554 on the OEX and then bounce up again, although I'm not sure how far that bounce would go, but that's such guesswork at this point. That's nothing more than a gut feeling, balanced together with the tendency back in January to punch down and test support while in this same zone, and for the need for this pullback--bull flag or sideways consolidation or something more ominous--to retrace a bit more than the OEX has retraced so far. Just a guess.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  3:48:32 PM
Bullish day trade cancel alert ... cancel the order to buy Shopping.com (SHOP) $26.70 -3.47% .... at $27.07.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  3:44:00 PM
Bears managed to invalidate the bullish intraday cup and handle formation, but nevertheless blew another day's worth of 30 minute cycle weakness with no price traction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  3:42:17 PM
Just as a curiosity, remember that 72-ema that I sometimes watch after mistakenly (because I wrongly read one of Jonathan's posts) put on my daily chart? Here's crude's daily chart with the 72-ema: Link Interesting, right? Doesn't mean that crude will bounce right here, but perhaps we can use this as a benchmark?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  3:37:57 PM
Today crude dropped to the rising trendline off the late June low and also to the level of the previous swing high, reached in August. Crude for December delivery dropped below the 50-dma. The 100-sma also sometimes provides support on the climb. That average is at $45.00. It will take a drop below that to show a significant change in pattern, and that might suggest a drop down to $40-42 support or the 200-sma at $39.46.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  3:37:25 PM
Thanks, Keene, but we've still got the most critical part of the day ahead of us. (See Keene's 15:34 post.) You still have an opportunity to see that breakout! I've tried to trade so many of these stagnant days that I think I've developed a special radar for them. I don't like being chopped to pieces. I don't like it because it depletes my trading account and enriches my broker, but mostly because it makes me feel dumb.

 
 
  Keene Little   11/9/200,  3:34:00 PM
Linda, good call today on the rangebound action. I thought we'd get our break out of it with either a thrust lower and then a rally to new highs, or a rally to new highs without the low first. But instead you pegged it--trapped inside the mirror room in the fun house. We can't seem to find our way out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  3:26:12 PM
Bearish divergence, Keltner style, continues with each OEX swing high. That's going to mean something at some point, but it doesn't have to mean anything for the rest of the day. The OEX could instead just be sinking toward mid-channel support where it will settle into an equilibrium position across many charts. I still think down is more plausible than up, but am afraid that straight-as-a-board is what we'll actually get if greed and fear remain equally balanced into the close. Moreover, that could continue until about 2:15 tomorrow afternoon. I sure am glad I'm not writing this evening's Wrap. Tomorrow's will be difficult enough, with the markets reacting to CSCO's earnings, crude inventories, the jobs numbers, the FOMC meeting, developments in the Arafat story, and who knows, throw in the Scott Peterson trial developments, too. But I'll have all those reactions tomorrow. To predict tonight what's going to happen tomorrow? Sheesh. Good luck, Jim.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  3:16:04 PM
Bears better hope that QQQ gets back below 38 QQQ in a hurry to undo what's looking like an intraday bullish cup and handle formation. A breakout will occur above 38.15 if on expanding volume.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  3:11:35 PM
The TRAN hasn't been able to push above 3600 yet, and may be turning down from Keltner resistance. If it's forming a H&S on its 10-minute chart, it needs to finish rounding down soon into a right shoulder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  3:09:50 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

Little pick up in volume.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  3:06:08 PM
Baghdad A military C-130 was the target of a shoulder fired missle as it left the Baghdad Airport late today. The airport has been closed to civilian traffic for several days due to increased risk. It is now closed to military traffic. The plane was narrowly able to avoid being hit by ejecting flares and other counter measures.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  3:04:05 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  3:02:52 PM
The R2K is looking a lot stronger than QQQ or the NQ here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  3:02:40 PM
I said early today that I expected it to be a kind of market paralysis day. I also noted that it might be a day when fear and greed guided trading more than what we're seeing on charts. As long as those two stay about evenly balanced ahead of all that's to occur on the economic and earnings front over the next 24 hours, that market paralysis should continue.

We're approaching that 3:00 period, however, and it's this time that presents the most danger. Anyone who has spent the last three trading days (since Friday about midday) hoping for a move somewhere is going to come to believe that a decision has to be made in the absence of any movement. Cover shorts or enter them? Take profit in long positions or enter new ones in the absence of any real pullback? I can't weigh who is the most panicked right now: bulls or bears, want-to-be or actual. If that fear or greed gets out of balance, though, look out below! Or above!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  2:54:09 PM
The OEX faces Keltner resistance at its current level. Studying the Keltner chart, it's difficult to give more weight to either nearby resistance or relatively nearby support, at 557.71, so difficult to assess whether the OEX can move up to challenge 560 or is more likely to fall.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  2:50:02 PM
The CME momentum train isn't showing any signs of stopping. Shares are up another $3.70 to $191.09. Odds are growing the company will announce a stock split.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  2:43:36 PM
Williams Cos (WMB) continues to march higher despite natural gas falling five out of the last six sessions.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  2:40:12 PM
Oil stock AHC appears to have finished its consolidation after its recent breakdown below the simple 100-dma. Shares are slipping lower again today, down 2%, and moving toward potential support in the $75.00 region underpinned by its simple and exponential 200-dma's.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  2:39:18 PM
QQQ's taking a run at the highs again after a very shallow pullback. A new 30 min cycle upphase is in progress, with resistance up to 38.19 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  2:39:08 PM
I'm watching the SOX, too, rising through the descending regression channel that it established off Friday's high. It's approaching Keltner resistance that turned it back on its last two approaches. If it is turned back this time, too, below 418.50 or so, it will have been continuing a pattern of bearish divergence, Keltner-wise. It's attempting a breakout, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  2:37:37 PM
Cluck... cluck.. cluck... Tyson (TSN) $15.92 +2.24%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  2:29:09 PM
I'm having trouble with my email this afternoon, so if any are trying to email me, I haven't been able to read that email. Any urgent questions should go to one of the other writers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  2:28:49 PM
QQQ's made a double top below 38.15. Support is now at 38.05, followed by 37.96, 37.88 and 37.80. Volume is falling off as price retreats from the high, and I note that the price rose a lot faster than it did on teh decline off the morning high.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  2:28:27 PM
Cardinal Health (CAH) is seeing some follow through on yesterday's breakout over $48.50 and its simple 100-dma. Today shares are up another 3.3% and over the $50.00 mark. The new bullish P&F buy signal now points to $77.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  2:27:12 PM
Capital One Financial (COF) is up about 1% and breaking out to new all-time highs over resistance dating back to last April.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  2:25:59 PM
Bullish day trade long setup alert .... for Shopping.com (SHOP) $26.90 -2.71% ....

Trade this one long on a trade at $27.07 (buy to $27.10 maximum), stop at $26.80 and target a bounce back higher to $27.60.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  2:22:57 PM
Texas Instruments (TXN) has been consolidating under resistance at $25.00 and its simple 200-dma for the last several days. Shares appear to be coiling for a bullish breakout.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  2:19:38 PM
CEC, a.k.a. Chuck E. Cheese's, is up another 1.8% and breaking out over round-number resistance at $40.00. This could be a momentum player's entry point as CEC hits new all-time highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  2:18:13 PM
The TRAN moves higher again. All that straight-line driving this afternoon allowed Keltner resistance lines to separate overhead, so that it may be easier for the TRAN to punch higher than it was earlier. However, there's a potential H&S now on its 10-minute chart. The TRAN would have to begin rounding down fairly soon from its 3591-ish area to form a right shoulder, however, or it will negate that formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  2:15:19 PM
QQQ is breaking above upper 30 min channel resistance here as the channel begins to turn up. Next cycle resistance is 60 min resistance at 38.15.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  2:13:57 PM
Jane may have already noted this information, but the advdec line has been turning up since shortly before noon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  2:12:20 PM
New session low for Nymex crude -3.46% at 37.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  2:07:16 PM
The 15B 5-year t-note auction went off well as well, generating a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.9, just below the high reading for the year in June at 2.91. The high yield was 3.51%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  2:03:33 PM
The OEX zoomed right up to 558-ish Keltner resistance. A failure to stay above it on a seven-minute closing basis will represent bearish divergence, Keltner style. A sustained push above it will set up a possible upside target of 559.69, although reaching that target seems unlikely from a Keltner-chart viewpoint as it's set up now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  2:00:53 PM
Session high for R2K futures here as QQQ breaks 38. 30-min channel resistance is 38.06.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  1:59:16 PM
Google (GOOG) with 2 fitted retracement at this Link

Didn't get the bounce for my short-term bullish call trade on Friday. Little bit on Monday. Traders seem worried about the "lock-up." That same worry didn't have the stock breaking $100.00 though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  1:57:44 PM
Nymex crude is down 3.05% to a session low of 47.60 here.

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/9/200,  1:44:36 PM
Jim per your 1:31... another negative factor for the market IMO, assuming the death of Arafat results in a power vacuum, associated uncertainty as to the new leader and potential riots. The radicals could certainly use the power vacuum as an "opportunity" to carry out their nasty deeds.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  1:39:38 PM
I've had to turn to the three-minute charts to see movement on the OEX. On that chart, the OEX has moved down to retest the mid-channel support. It may be due for a short-term bounce, perhaps up toward 557.30-557.45, but it appears to be settling into an equilibrium position on that chart, bouncing between support and resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  1:37:34 PM
Surprisingly, the 30 minute oscillator downphase continues after this morning's downside break and the bounce off 37.81 QQQ. This downphase is as lacklustre as the one we saw yesterday, but bulls are having trouble getting back to 38. It was a lot tougher to believe that the price would simply wait for the CSCO results, but that's what's happened- there's been no net change since yesterday's premarket levels.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  1:31:37 PM
Those that claim to know say Arafat will not be allowed to die until Monday, maybe Sunday. Saturday is the end of Ramadan and they do not want the riots and morning to begin until after Ramadan is over.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  1:26:44 PM
News sources are again reporting Arafat dead, but there again appears to be some confusion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  1:15:30 PM
The SOX is still trapped between the 200-ema's resistance and the 100-ema's support, with those averages at 425.93 and 409.69, respectively. It's trading with a rising wedge--supposedly bearish, but you know how poorly these formations have worked to predict upside or downside breakouts lately. We can use them, however, to watch those breakouts when they occur. The SOX is currently right in the middle of that wedge, too, between support and resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  1:07:19 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  1:05:55 PM
A wavelet upphase is peaking here for QQQ as the short cycles continue to turn up within the still downphasing 30 minute cycle channel. A move above 38.0 QQQ for longer than 5 minutes should be eough to begin generating upticks in that channel. The bottom line is that 37.78-.82 held as support again today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  1:00:57 PM
The OEX did attempt a push up toward next Keltner resistance (see the annotations on the chart linked to my 12:44 post), and it's so far having difficulty with that resistance. I'm not sure whether it can get as high as the next resistance at 558.18. So far, this still fits my thesis of market paralysis today. So far today, the OEX has traded in a less than 1.5-point range. I do want to note that while the OEX was condolidating in early January this year, in this same zone, it did see some five-and six-point range days. It's possible that a move could snowball, but it's just not happening yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:57:59 PM
The 24B 4-week t-bill auction was a success, generating a 2.53 bid-to-cover ratio with a high yield of 1.9%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  12:57:29 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $29.62 +1.12% ... going to press its 07/21 gap open high of $29.89.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  12:54:40 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:53:32 PM
QQQ's nose to nose with 7200-tick SMA resistance right here at 37.94.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:48:29 PM
James, I've been using Firefox for many months and wouldn't go back. The configurable extensions and tabbed browsing save me tons of time and keystrokes, and allow me to load my 20 or so regular windows with a single click. I recommend it very highly.

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  12:46:34 PM
CNBC just mentioned a new Internet browser called FireFox. I was just speaking with a computer tech recently who has been using it because it's more secure than Microsoft's Internet Explorer.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:45:17 PM
Volume has taken spike lower, with my tick indicators barely refreshing at this point. The key range in here looks like 37.88-37.95 QQQ. A short cycle upphase is trying to get going, but with volume as low as it is, these are very signals.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  12:44:39 PM
A look at the OEX on a short-term Keltner chart: Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/9/200,  12:44:03 PM
Salesforce.com (CRM) is down 3.77% to $19.63 after being downgraded to "under weight" this morning. The stock has been pretty strong the last three months as traders buy the dips to its 20-dma. Shares are testing this technical support again today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  12:38:32 PM
The TRAN confirmed a big H&S on its three-minute chart. It's come right back up to retest the neckline and is now dropping away from that neckline. The failure at the neckline will be confirmed on a drop to a new low. The downside target on the TRAN is at 3566, but we're watching this to get a feel for how this leading index performs rather than as a trading vehicle.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  12:36:36 PM
Earnings after the close:

GT est +0.20
CSC est +0.66
HPC est +0.26
LZB est +0.21
MDR est +0.10
CSCO est +0.21
GMST est +0.00
KANA est -0.13

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  12:30:26 PM
For those who might not have caught it last night, here's a chart comparing the current rally with the OEX rally from mid-December to January of last year. Link While I believe the RSI and CCI levels tell us that the OEX is vulnerable to sideways consolidation or a pullback, and while I share the views of others that this zoom up has been so extreme that it requires a pullback to consolidate those gains if not a deeper pullback, history sometimes suggests otherwise. As shown on this chart, the OEX is consolidating right in the area in which it consolidated in early December last year, after zooming up from the 522 level, just where this rally started. That's why, ahead of a number of economic and earnings releases, my view today has been for market paralysis, tempered by a belief that if bears or bulls ever got control, losses or gains could cascade. I'm just not seeing anything yet that tells me that's happening, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  12:29:35 PM
TASR $51.06 -5.64% ... Pivot analysis traders .... just noting current session low of $49.42 pretty close to WEEKLY R1 of $49.39. WEEKLY Pivot lower at $45.08.

Should we see any type of pullback into $45.00, then that might be ideal new bull entry.

Find $45 on PnF chart. Link

Here's a 15-minute interval chart of TASR and our various retracement and "zones". $45.96 not quite $45, but you can see why. Link

For now, it would take something north of $53.16 to get me back on the bullish wagon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:28:28 PM
Session high for ZN bond futures here, with TNX down 1.7 bps at 4.198%. Support is at 4.14%-4.16%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:23:26 PM
QQQ drifted back above 37.88 without any change in volume, with the declining 7200-tick SMA currently at 37.95. The 30 min channel has upside resistance down to 38.05 from a high of 38.20. If this downphase is for real, then QQQ needs to fail in this bounce at a lower high. In theory, anything below the session high would be enough, but bears will want to see the price stay below 37.95 to avoid a return to the flatline-rangebound chop we've been seeing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  12:21:27 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:16:23 PM
Off topic:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Anti-virus software maker McAfee Inc. is warning about a new version of the Mydoom worm that infects computers of people who click on a link in e-mail they receive. The new version is a mass-mailing worm that does not contain an attachment, as some earlier versions of the worm program have done.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:11:45 PM
Here's the story on PDG today:

VANCOUVER (PRNewswire) - VANCOUVER, Nov. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Placer Dome Inc. (NYSE, TSX, ASX: PDG) has executed an underwriting agreement with respect to its previously announced equity offering at $22 per share. The pricing will result in the issuance of approximately 18.5 million common shares, not including an option granted to the underwriters to purchase up to approximately 2.7 million common shares at $22 per share to cover over-allotments, if any. The offering is expected to close on November 23, 2004.

Net proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes, which may include funding of new project development and other capital expenditures.

CIBC World Markets and Scotia Capital are lead managers for the offering, and Deutsche Bank Securities Ltd., HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc., Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., UBS Securities Canada Inc., BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., GMP Securities Ltd., National Bank Financial Inc. and Salman Partners Inc. are co-managers. A preliminary prospectus and related documents have been filed with securities regulatory authorities in all provinces of Canada. ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:09:12 PM
XAU remains negative despite the new highs for gold and the strength in HUI. XAU component PDG is down over 6% here, and I'm looking for news now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  12:08:55 PM
As requested by a reader, here is a chart on RIMM, showing some potential S/R zones, but I caution that I have not watched RIMM frequently, and this information is based on chart characteristics only. A court decision could change the outlook. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  12:04:31 PM
Amazing resilience at 37.78-.82 support for QQQ, but equally surprising that 37.88 has held as resistance this the break. There's been no 'bot launch despite the successful retest of the low. If 37.88 doesn't break soon, we'll have a lower high below yesterday afternoon's range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  12:02:12 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  11:57:12 AM
I had computer difficulties and am just booting every up again. Be back in a second.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  11:55:37 AM
Session high for gold here at 436.50, +3.10, with HUI up 1.17% at 237.83 but XAU down .1% at 106.42.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  11:51:16 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  11:48:37 AM
Session lows breaking for ES and YM futures, but QQQ and NQ aren't following along. 30 min channel support is down to 37.75 for QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  11:38:11 AM
QQQ has stayed below the 7200-tick SMA long enough to turn the 30 min channel down and even generate a slight downtick in the wider 60 min channel. But obviously 37.80 hasn't failed yet, and this cycle downphase could be reversed with a single buy program back to the 38.00 level. Yesterdays' range continues to stall the price.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  11:35:54 AM
The OEX has fallen below the five-minute 100/130-ema's for the first time since last Wednesday, and that breach was brief, lasting only about 45 minutes. (A warning to bears not to be too complacent?) It's testing mid-channel Keltner support on the seven-minute chart, as well as the descending trendline from Friday's high. Still not out of potential bounce territory. In fact, I'd expect to see at least a tepid bounce attempt back to test those averages. If any entered a bearish position on a drop through those benchmark averages, keep a close watch on any bounce, if it should occur. If the OEX should continue to drop, have profit-protecting plans in place for the 552.50-563 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  11:23:37 AM
The OEX is now between the 100- and 130-ema's on the five-minute chart. It's sinking reluctantly down toward mid-channel Keltner support on the seven-minute chart, with that support near 556, also the location of the descending trendline off Friday's high. That should be enough support to produce at least a tepid bounce somewhere through here, but if the OEX should plunge below 556, that sets up a potential fall down toward 553, according to the Keltner evidence. Be aware that any trade taken today has the potential to be one that whipsaws right back the opposite direction. We might see confirmation of a bearish trade or confirmation of a bullish trade, but if enough shorts or enough bulls are lurking just beyond that confirmation point, it won't matter a bit. If you're trading today, you need to understand what you're risking ahead of so many economic reports tomorrow and CSCO's earnings report after the close today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  11:21:54 AM
Swing trade bullish call exit alert for the TASR Dec. $45 call at $9.00.

TASR $51.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  11:21:26 AM
QQQ is testing 37.88 from below here on a low volume bounce. The 30 min channel is showing a downtick, but has yet to roll over.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  11:17:45 AM
Dec. gold is up 2 to 435.40, with a high of 435.60, which is a new high for the move and a 15+ year high. HUI is up .75% at 236.83.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  11:13:07 AM
Reader Question: Any news you can highlight on --RIMM-- or opinions would be highly appreciated... aware that RIMM will await pending judgement on a lawsuit this week. Since you have quicker access than we do regard news info .... Would be helpful to receive this from your end.

Response: Unfortunately, I'm scouring the same news sources that most of you are, without access to news that would scoop that you'll receive from usual sources. This email was addressed to both Jeff and me. Perhaps Jeff has better resources than I do, and I believe he follows RIMM from time to time. I can take a look at charts if this reader wants that information, but I don't tend to follow individual stocks regularly, and so would be unlikely to catch any news ahead of the reader. If the suit were in overseas courts--it isn't--I might be likely to catch the news ahead of readers and other commentators, but it's unlikely I will otherwise. Sorry I'm not more help!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  11:09:00 AM
30 and 60 min channel support are now in play. If the price can stay below 37.88 for longer than 5-10 minutes, we should see these channels roll over for QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  11:08:22 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  11:06:57 AM
Google (GOOG) 167.38 -2.98% .... after slight bounce yesterday, loses Friday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  11:01:39 AM
The OEX tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with tiny five-minute candles perching along the five-minute 100-ema, currently at 557.17.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  10:58:50 AM
Neither the 30 nor 60 minute channels have rolled over yet for QQQ, which is appropriate given that price is stalled at 37.90. Channel support hasn't budged, but the short cycle downphase is continuing lower while generating very poor price traction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  10:58:28 AM
TASR $51.55 -4.73% ... updated bar chart with fitted retracement at this Link

Note: Yesterday's close could be explained if you were to take a retracement from the 07/27/04 low of $23.06, the "fit" the 38.2% at that spike high close of $43.09 on 09/15/04. Results are 50% at $48.64, 61.8% at $54.20, 80.9% at $63.21 and 100% at $72.21.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  10:53:12 AM
TASR $51.29 -5.2% .... DEC. $45 Calls bid $9.10.

Thinking $51 = $9.00.

My fitted retracement "zone of support" is $50.97-$53.16.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  10:52:49 AM
On the TRAN, nearby Keltner resistance, up to 3593.40, looks stronger than nearby support. Although the TRAN may rise up to test that resistance, down looks easier than a push much above 3600 on a short-term basis anyway. We've had the TRAN's strength working against weakness in other indices today, until now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  10:49:36 AM
iShare Russ 2000 Growth (IWO) chart with conventional retracement as well as historical average (PINK) at this Link as well as strategy for building bullish position.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  10:42:22 AM
The OEX still looks as if it might be working its way down toward Keltner support near 556, just above and just below it. This is also the current site of the descending trendline off Friday's high. It would, however, be below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 557.16 and 556.79, so the OEX is actually likely to find at least temporary support anywhere from its current position down to 556. Those using the five-minute 100/130-ema's as a benchmark risk having the OEX violate those averages only to find support just below and bounce again. Under ordinary circumstances, I would accept a bit more risk attempting a bearish trade than a bullish one on a day like today, but nothing in market internals is currently supporting a bearish play.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  10:37:34 AM
Volume is light but seems to be picking up on the sell side for QQQ as the price breaks below the 7200 tick SMA. A short cycle downphase is in progress within the sideways 30 and 60 min channels. Below 37.88, channel support lines up from 37.78-37.82.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  10:31:38 AM
I'm thumping my computer monitor, seeing if I can get those prices moving again. So far, this is the kind of paralysis I expected for this morning. Earlier I would have added a caveat, that if a new high was reached, then bulls and scared shorts might run the markets much higher, or if a breach of important support occurred, bears and scared bulls might run it much lower. However, the TRAN's example questions even that caveat. It moved to a new high, but couldn't capitalize on that new high by running above 3600, at least not yet. It continued bearish price/MACD divergence while it was hitting that new high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  10:25:16 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $52.42 -3.2% Link .... trade at $53 is 3-box reversal. I'm eyeballing a trade at $52-$51 (slight divergence to recent trade) as $9.00 on our call option. SIMILARITY to past would have stock turning around (split run) with target of $60 achieved.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  10:23:24 AM
Dec. crude oil is down to 47.95, -2.34%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  10:19:10 AM
The OEX currently sits on Keltner and historical support near 558, but it looks vulnerable down to 557.30-557.50 or perhaps to 555.90-556.14.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  10:18:28 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  10:14:41 AM
The 30 minute channels have taken a slight bump up on the run to 38.13, but remain flat at 38.18 resistance and 37.82 support. The 7200-tick SMA support line is up to 37.96. As we saw yesterday, all these levels are just inching their way up. Bears might like that the rise is slow and hesitant, but it's still a rise until 37.82 (at a minimum) gets violated.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  10:08:39 AM
So far, the OEX did not even touch the upper Keltner resistance, much less move above it. While the OEX has bounced from the test of the five-minute 100-ema this morning, it hasn't bounced far. Still market paralysis, as far as I'm concerned. One leading index, the TRAN moved to a new high. Another, the SOX, drops. The dollar drops against the yen, sometimes lately a pressure on U.S. bourses. Crude trades sideways.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  10:03:34 AM
VIX.X 13.79 -0.07% .... Daily Pivot levels .... 13.17, 13.46, Piv = 13.97 14.26, 14.77.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  10:02:51 AM
A 7.25B overnight repo from the Fed results in a 4B net drain against the 11.25B expiring.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  10:02:21 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  10:02:00 AM
Wholesale inventories +.5%, est. .7%, prior revised from .9% to 1.1%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  9:59:34 AM
This doesn't look like market paralysis, does it? Actually, though, the OEX is rising to test upper Keltner resistance, mentioned late yesterday afternoon. If the OEX finds resistance at that upper Keltner line, currently at 559.80, it will have shown bearish divergence, Keltner style. That hasn't happened yet, of course, and the OEX may instead break out to a new high, following the TRAN's example. Watching now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:58:54 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $43.60 +1.2% ... perking up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:56:58 AM
Swing trade raise bullish stop alert .... Let's raise the stop on the one (1) remaining TASR Dec. $45 Call (QUR-LI) to $9.00.

TASR $53.91 -0.32% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  9:53:52 AM
The SOX is flat so far, poised between the 200-ema and the top of its rising wedge and the 100-ema, with those averages at 426.96 and 409.74, respectivelly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:52:33 AM
iShare Rus 2000 Growth (IWO) $62.45 +0.54% ... percentage gainer among the majors.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  9:51:15 AM
QQQ ran to a high of 38.13 and is now testing 38.10 from above. There was a surge of volume on the runup but it's waning as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  9:51:12 AM
The TRAN has bested Friday's high and is now just below 3596.52. That thing just keeps driving higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:49:15 AM
Swing trade call option longer alert ... for Tyson (TSN) and three (3) April $15 Calls (TSN-DC) at $1.60 offer.

Target $20.00

TSN $15.80 +1.47% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  9:47:39 AM
Currently, I'm leaning toward a diagnosis of market paralysis for today. That's because of the number of economic and earnings results to be factored into trading over the next 24 hours (my 8:59 post), as well as this zone's history of producing consolidation patterns (see my 21:45 post for a chart) and the action in overnight markets. I'll look for signs that's wrong, but I'm not seeing them yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:47:13 AM
Tyson Foods (TSN) $15.83 +1.66% .... I want to profile a bullish call play but I can't get my option chain up. I'd be looking January or a little longer.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:41:08 AM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $51.25 +4.37% Link ... rockets higher to an all-time high after yesterday's spread-triple top buy signal.

Achieves the 100% level ($51.75) of my 38.2% fitted retracement. Will have to roll another one higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:40:31 AM
Continuous Oil Contract ($WTIC) on 25-cent box size at this Link

I've got December Crude (cl04z) $48.56 -1.07% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  9:38:24 AM
The Fed has 11.25B in overnight repos expiring today, and the treasury has more auctions (read "drains") scheduled for today. We await the Fed's temporary open market operation announcement at 10AM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  9:36:47 AM
While the OEX tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's, it's also testing the descending trendline off Friday's high. Since breaking above that trendline yesterday, the OEX has kind of been sliding down along it--headed down, but still finding support at that trendline. It's sliding down toward 555.75-555.90-ish Keltner support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  9:34:34 AM
And QQQ has resumed yesterday's sideways move, currently trading 37.94.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  9:33:11 AM
HUI and XAU have opened fractionally positive, Dec. gold holding a 30 cent gain at 433.70. TNX is up .3 bps at 4.218%, while Nymex crude is down 1.88% to 48.175.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  9:32:53 AM
The OEX tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's at the open, so far bouncing from those averages. They're at 556.85 and 556.48, respectively.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  9:12:50 AM
The NQ futures and QQQ remain in yesterday's range, albeit at the lower end thereof. The 30 min cycle oscillators are completely mixed and unreadable, themselves squeezed into a neutral pennant after a weak downphase. The only thing to do directionally is to either follow the longer cycles (still up but getting toppy) or, my preference, follow a breakout. The breakout range should be yesterday's narrow highs and lows- above 38.10 or below 37.80 QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  8:59:59 AM
We'll be watching the OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's as our first benchmark this morning. (See my 21:45 post.)

Anyone considering any kind of play today, bullish or bearish, needs to be aware of all that will happen on the economic and earnings front from tonight's close until tomorrow's. First come CSCO earnings tonight after the close. We can all remember CSCO-inspired rallies and declines, both. Because government offices will be closed for Veteran's Day on Thursday (bond markets, too), initial jobless claims will be moved up to Wednesday. In addition, we'll be seeing October's Import Price Index, September's Trade Balance, the usual crude inventories numbers, and October's Monthly Budget Statement. As if that weren't enough, the FOMC rate-hike decision is due tomorrow. If that's not enough to paralyze markets and or skew indicators, I don't know what might be. From this moment on, trading might be more fear- or greed-based than usual, and technical analysis may be less useful than usual.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  8:37:41 AM
Marketwatch is reporting that the NDX tracking stock (QQQ) will be moving from the Amex to the Nasdaq starting Dec. 1, and will trade under the symbol "QQQQ".

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  8:34:44 AM
Session highs for gold and silver at 434.90 and 7.518, with QQQ up to an 8 cent loss at 37.92.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/9/200,  7:45:42 AM
Equities are lower, ES trading 1164.25, NQ 1526, YM 10375 and QQQ -.11 to 37.89. Gold is up .60 to 434, silver -.033 to 7.455 and ten year bonds +.14 to a session high of 112.406. Nymex crude is down .30 to a session low of 48.80.

Awaiting the 10AM release of Sept. wholesale inventories, est. .7%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  7:12:22 AM
Good morning. Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting in the U.S. and Friday's GDP for Japan, Asian markets turned in mixed performances. Some also reacted to the dollar's fluctuations against their currencies. European markets trade cautiously on either side of the flat-line as Germany's Zew indicator of economic sentiment surprised to the downside. As of 6:59 EST, gold was down $0.50 and oil, up $0.01. Our futures have drifted lower. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With Mazda Motor Corporation and Alps Electric Company reporting better-than-expected earnings, the Nikkei climbed above 11,000 in early trading, reaching its high of the day within its first hour of trading. In addition, Mazda raised its forecast for this year's profit by 9%. The dollar had also firmed against the yen. Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision in the U.S. and Friday's GDP number in Japan, however, the Nikkei could not hold onto those gains and fell to its low of the day in the afternoon, moving off that low to close down 18.96 points or 0.17%, at 10,964.87.

Traders in Japan were stock pickers, sending some techs higher and punishing others. Toshiba filed suit against South Korea's Hynix Semiconductor for patent infringement, and both stocks declined. Tokyo Electron declined, reacting to Monday's announcement that higher taxes would result in a lower first-half net profit than previously estimated. Automakers rose, however.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.13%. Concerns about the strength of the won against the dollar sent South Korea's exporters lower in early trading, with the Kospi declining 0.23%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.08%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.01%, both closing near the flat-line level. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.25%, still hovering just above 1,300, at 1,307.429.

Currently, many European bourses trade near the flat-line level. In the U.K., retailer Marks & Spencer declined after it noted increasingly difficult sales conditions and announced a shakeup among top executives. Other retailers reacted to their October sales figures, with the overall sales showing disappointing consumer confidence. Some homebuilders are noting a slowing of sales.

In Germany, the much-watched Zew indicator of economic sentiment surprised to the downside, falling to 13.9 in November. Analysts had expected a modest pullback to 29 or 30 from October's 31.3. In addition, Infineon Technologies included a caution about a modest decline in earnings and revenue when posting its earnings. Both Vivendi Universal and Cap Gemini Ernst & Young gained after their earnings releases.

As of 6:59 EST, the FTSE 100 has gained 6.50 points or 0.14%, to trade at 4,723.10. The CAC 40 has lost 1.98 points or 0.05%, to trade at 3,775.01. The DAX has gained 3.36 points or 0.08%, to trade at 4,072.33.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/8/200,  10:50:23 PM
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) $33.12 +14.88% Link ... chicken producer flew the coop the on strong earnings today.

Will birds of a feather flock together?

Tyson (TSN) $15.57 -0.12% Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/8/200,  9:45:42 PM
After shooting to new recent highs, the OEX consolidates. RSI has reached overbought levels seen only twice in the last year year, both times within a couple of weeks before a downturn. The OEX must be ready to tumble any moment. Or maybe not. Take a look at some similarities in this rally and the one that began in December, 2003: Link

Daily RSI and CCI levels indicate to me that the OEX is vulnerable to a pullback or to a prolonged sideways consolidation. But is the OEX due to begin that correction now? Maybe, maybe not. There's just nothing on this chart that tells us definitively. The chart linked above suggests that RSI is a great leading oscillator, warning us of vulnerability ahead of time, but not always great at predicting when the downturn will occur. If you'd entered a bearish OEX play last January 9, when RSI first turned down below 70 again, you'd have had to have ridden that play from the 560-563 zone all the way up to the year's high and then down again in March before you could have profited. You could have profited, that is, if you had options far enough out and weren't zeroed out at option expiration one of those intervening months. That's not the way I want to wait out an options play. So, while the trend remains up, buy the dips, but perhaps consider smaller positions and tactics to hedge against a sudden turnaround. Look for signs that turnaround has begun.

Keltner-wise, the OEX ended the day as it had spent the day, between Keltner support and Keltner resistance. It spent the day bouncing from the five-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 556.84 and 558.46 respectively, so a decline below those averages would mean at least a short-term change in trend.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/8/200,  7:52:58 PM
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