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  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  4:15:14 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Closed out the five (5) SHY Dec. $82 puts (SHY-XD) at the bid of $0.45. ($0.20, or -$100.00)

Swing trade long 1/2 bullish for the TASR Dec. $55 Calls (QUR-LK) at the offer of $5.20. Following with an initial stop of $2.00, may add to position in coming sessions. $57.50 could be a magic number for further short covering tomorrow.

Swing trade round to full bullish position for the IWO May $63 calls (IWO-EK) at the offer of $4.60.

Swing trade sold five (5) PFE Dec. $25 puts (PFE-XE) at the bid of $0.35. These are hedged by the currently long PFE Jan. $25 puts (PFE-ME). This becomes a rather "neutral" position to December expiration.

Swing trade sold six (6) currently NAKED CALLS in the further out the money SMH Dec. $35 Calls (SMH-LG) at the bid of $0.30.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  4:01:15 PM
The OEX managed to close at its most ambiguous level. Is it breaking down or finding support? Stay tuned tomorrow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  4:00:48 PM
Buy program premium .... DIA $104.36, SPY $116.97, QQQ $37.75

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/10/20,  3:59:02 PM
Dateline CNN President Bush announces White House counsel Alberto Gonzales is his choice to replace Attorney General John Ashcroft.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  3:48:48 PM
Swing trade round to full alert ... taking an additiona one (1) Russell 2000 iShare Growth May $63.00 call (IWO-EK) at the offer of $4.70.

IWO $63.15 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  3:44:59 PM
The OEX inches up to test that Keltner resistance now at about 556.60-557.00. From this perspective, it looks as if that resistance will hold, but the OEX might then find support near 555.40. If the OEX plunges through that, as bears hope, plans should be in place in case of a bounce from 552-554.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  3:34:44 PM
The OEX fell to the bottom of its range established since midday on Friday. It's now trying to rise. Those of you who are of the "buy low, sell high" camp and who believe that the OEX is going higher, and will eventually break out of that bull flag would now be buying, but this drop through to support was different than the others. It was steeper, quicker, and cut through support more quickly. I suspect that the OEX may find resistance at 556.90 or so and turn down again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  3:19:00 PM
QQQ breaking the prior lows here, trading 37.72 currently. Channel support lines up at 37.62 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  3:14:52 PM
The OEX moved lower through the mid-channel level on the OEX's seven-minute Keltner chart, slicing right through it as bears might have liked, but it's pulling up short just above the lower support of the range in which it's traded since midday Friday, and bears don't like that.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  3:13:35 PM
This is the steepest move we've seen all week, but today's low has yet to be touched. QQQ is currently lower by .077 at 37.793.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  3:11:29 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  3:08:03 PM
The OEX heads down to test 557 Keltner support. What bears want to see is the OEX slicing through support levels rather than angling down with a typical back-and-forth corrective type move that might again be reversed. Lower Kelner support has now drifted down toward 553.60, but the OEX first has to break through the bottom of that 555.40-559.40-ish range in which it's been trading. It hasn't done that yet, either. Those who are truly buying low and selling high might have "sold" the top of that range when it was touched a few minutes ago. If so, they need to have profit-protecting plans in mind if the OEX reaches 555.40 and then again if it reaches 552-554. I started out today thinking that 552-554 range would be tested, but that there would be a bounce attempt from that level. That had exhausted my predictions, though, because it was the strength or weakness of that bounce that I expected to tell me more about future action on the OEX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  3:04:23 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  3:01:01 PM
All that adrenaline coursing through all our veins, and all for nothing.

So far, Keltner support is holding on the OEX, but support firms near 557.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:56:11 PM
The 30 min cycle oscillators were sufficiently bottomy there to risk an extended upphase if QQQ can power above recent resistance. A sustained break above 38.20 QQQ should end the bearish tilt in the overbought daily cycle oscillators, and could spell a new round of pain for bears.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:55:02 PM
The advdec line has been climbing all day. TRIN is in neutral territory. That OEX pattern on the daily chart looks like a bull flag. I'm working under the theory that I'd be the last chump in a bullish play if I were to pile into a bullish play on an upside breakout, but if you were to feel so compelled, that's the breakout level. So far, the OEX still is trapped by Keltner resistance just below that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:51:06 PM
The new descending trendline off Friday's high, the top of the potential bull flag, is at about 559.15, and the OEX is headed up to test it now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:50:54 PM
A short cycle upphase is in progress for QQQ, heading for rising 30 min channel resistance at 38.11. Session highs breaking out across the board as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:47:57 PM
The OEX still tests Keltner resistance near 558. MACD has flat-lined across many charts, too, so it's not giving any clues. The OEX is close to a breakout point above the possible bull flag on its chart, but it hasn't broken out yet and that resistance has held since Friday, so you could just as easily say the OEX is close to a rollover point.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:46:49 PM
Allergan (AGN) is up 1% and breaking out over resistance at $78.00 and its exponential 200-dma. The move also happens to break into the July gap down pushing through the bottom of the gap, which is typically resistance.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/10/20,  2:46:37 PM
Dateline CNN The jury foreman deliberating in the Scott Peterson double murder case has been dismissed

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:44:31 PM
SHY Dec. $82 puts (SHY-XD) just traded $0.45, should be exited at $0.45.

SHY $81.70 -0.03% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:37:02 PM
The OEX hasn't broken above the new descending trendline drawn off Friday's high. It hasn't broken out of its inner Keltner channel on the seven-minute chart. Those would begin to show a possibility that the OEX was breaking or about to break above its recent range, but neither has happened. If they don't, soon, I would think that bulls would grow worried, just as shorts did before the announcement, and that there would be another attempt to run the OEX down to test support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:33:13 PM
The OEX still tests Keltner resistance on the seven-minute chart, with that resistance at 558.24.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:32:19 PM
Buy Program Premium ...

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:31:25 PM
The HMO healthcare index has been in rocket-mode the last three weeks too. The group is at all-time highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:30:24 PM
The CYC cyclical index has also gone straight up since October 25th. The sector index broke through major resistance at 720 a few days ago and the group is at all-time highs. If you look at the weekly chart you can see how the CYC has spent almost all of 2004 trading sideways as it digest its rocket-like 2003 rally.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:27:36 PM
The XAL airline index has virtually gone straight up since October 20th and is just now beginning to hint at some weakness.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:27:17 PM
Like the TRAN, the OEX sprang up from its test of support. It's already at the top of its Keltner range (from channel line to channel line), however, on the seven-minute chart. This isn't a breakout Keltner-wise at least. Not yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:25:41 PM
Buy program premium

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:25:32 PM
Session high for R2K futures here, with QQQ up to 37.94.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:25:10 PM
Buy program premium ... SPX 1,166.25 , QQQ $37.92

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:25:09 PM
Immediately after the Fed announcement, the TRAN fell below the ascending trendline that had been supporting it since midday Friday, but it bounced right back above it. In fact, it sprang right back above it, with such a spring usually indicating the index will next attempt a rally. Let's see if that goes any further than the post-Fed decline did.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:25:07 PM
The DFI defense index is now up six days in a row hitting new all-time highs.

Meanwhile General Dynamics (GD) is bouncing today from the $105 level.

While Northrop Grumman (NOC) is bouncing today from the $54 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:24:26 PM
Swing trade put option exit alert selling the Lehman 1-3 year iShares Dec. $82 puts (SHY-XD) at the bid of $0.45.

Risk of premium erosion becomes high at this point.

SHY $81.72 -0.01% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:23:37 PM
The OEX is doing absolutely nothing just yet.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:20:30 PM
The OIX oil index is testing its simple 50-dma as support while the OSX oil services index is bouncing from its simple 100-dma.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:20:04 PM
Very muted reaction so far. QQQ is back to 37.79.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:20:01 PM
5-year yield ($FVX.X) drops sharply.... now up just 1.3 bp at 3.527%

10-year ($TNX.X) up 1.0 bp at 4.949% .... curve could steepen here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:19:47 PM
Session high for ZN bonds with TNX up .1 bps at 4.219%, back to flat.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:19:15 PM
02:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:18:28 PM
Are you watching the pit traders on CNBC? They're standing around, too, not knowing what direction to take the market. I saw some gesturing to sell (palms away from them) and some gesturing to buy (palms toward them), but most were just standing there, as confused as the rest of us.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:18:02 PM
Starbucks (SBUX) has broken above round-number resistance at $55.00 today. Shares look very overbought. I'm watching for a pull back to the bottom of its narrow, rising channel near $52.50 although that may not be enough to alleviate its overbought status.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:17:07 PM
Headlines:

2:15pm FED RAISES DISCOUNT RATE

2:15pm FOMC SAYS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WELL CONTAINED

2:15pm FOMC SEES BALANCED RISKS TO ECONOMY

2:15pm FOMC SAYS RATES CAN BE RAISED AT 'MEASURED' PACE

2:15pm FOMC SAYS RATES STILL ACCOMMODATIVE

2:15pm FOMC RAISES FED FUNDS INTEREST RATE TO 2%

2:15pm FOMC SAYS ECONOMY GROWING AT 'MODERATE PACE'

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:16:44 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,166.07 , QQQ $37.92

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  2:14:44 PM
Visx Inc. (EYE) is up 37.5% to $24.90 after news broke of a $1.3 billion acquisition from Advanced Med Optics (AVO). AVO is down 6.6%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:14:22 PM
Both the TRAN and the Nasdaq have been trading in ascending regression channels on the daily charts, with both having popped just above the tops of those channels in the last week. On both, candles cling to that top resistance-turned-support, but both are in danger of losing their grips and tumbling back into the channel.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:13:48 PM
The treasury budget deficit was 57.3B vs. 58B expected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  2:11:43 PM
December Fed Funds futures (ff04z) 97.89 (unch) .... currently predicting a 45% chance of two (2) 25 basis point hikes. Current fed funds at 1.75%. FOMC decision any minute now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:11:20 PM
The OEX is absolutely at the mid-channel level on both the five- and seven-minute Keltner charts. It's as neutral as you can get on a Keltner basis on those charts.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:11:08 PM
That pop might have been INTC's annoucement:

2:03pm INTC INTEL HIGHER DIVIDEND PAYABLE MARCH 1, 2005

2:04pm INTC INTEL HIGHER DIVIDEND FOR SHAREHOLDERS AS OF FEB 7

2:03pm INTC INTEL QUARTERLY DIVIDEND TO BE 8C A SHARE

2:04pm INTC INTEL EXPECTS TO PAY $1B IN CASH DIVIDENDS IN 2004

2:04pm INTC INTEL EXPECTS TO PAY $2B IN CASH DIVIDENDS IN 2005

As well, the company announced a stock buyback: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:09:38 PM
The OEX has risen to retest the five-minute 100/130-ema's. It punched above them but has fallen back below them. They're now converging at 556.97 and 556.94, with the 100-ema now having crossed below the 130-ema. Instead of being parked at support, the OEX is being parked at nearest resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  2:02:40 PM
Session high for R2K futures again, with QQQ just bouncing off the 37.78 level, currnetly up to 37.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  2:01:30 PM
Sounds as if we're all watching crude prices. I note that the 50% Fib level of the last rally, off the August low, is at just under $48.40, so this rise is retesting that important Fib level, but from the underside this time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  1:59:32 PM
Buy/sell program premiums HL Camp looks to have changed their buy/sell program premium levels for today, or just updated them to match Wednesday's date.

Buy programs are set at $1.40 and selling at $-$1.04.

This would show a buy program premium generated at approx. 09:50-09:55 AM EST SPX = 1,163.50

and another at 10:45-10:50 AM EST. SPX = 1,163.73

No sell program premiums would have been generated so far today.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  1:58:54 PM
Oil service stock SLB is beginning to bounce higher with a 2.2% rally today. The MACD indicator is nearing a new buy signal. Our trigger to go long is over $65.00 but we suggested that more aggressive trades may want to consider positions when SLB crosses $64.00 or $64.50.

 
 
  James Brown   11/10/20,  1:56:17 PM
Strength in the financials today has helped spur a 1.9% rally in Golden West Financial (GDW). GDW has pushed through resistance at $118.00 to hit our trigger to go long. The P&F chart points to a $129 target.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  1:55:04 PM
Session high for Nymex crude here, +.211% at 48.375. Gold is down 1.60 at 434.50, HUI -1.63 at 236.43.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  1:52:46 PM
Crude has been bouncing today from its 72-ema: Link I'm 30-minutes delayed on this chart, but the current price is $48.20, above that shown on the chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  1:50:35 PM
QQQ is at a third test of the session lows here. 30 and 60 min channel support are lined up at 37.67 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  1:47:44 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  1:44:37 PM
The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX still angling down toward mid-channel support on the 15-minute chart, with that support now at 554.70-555.14.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/10/20,  1:39:20 PM
COMPQ correction to 1950? Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  1:31:20 PM
The bid to cover ratio on the ten year auction was a respectable 2.05. TNX has come back down again to 4.246% here, +2.8 bps for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  1:25:38 PM
The OEX is still rattling around in that tight range in an equilibrium position on its 7-minute Keltner chart. That range has now narrowed to less than 1.1 points.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  1:16:30 PM
The TRAN keeps finding support along a trendline established off the lows since midday Friday. It's testing that slightly ascending trendline, at about 3576. I'm watching to see if the TRAN might break out (to the downside, in this case) of the trading range it's established since Friday morning. It's at 3576.45 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  1:10:23 PM
TNX is chewing away at 4.26%, currently printing 4.263%, up 4.5 bps. The ten year note auction has just ended, but I don't yet have the bid to cover ratio or high yield info.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  1:08:02 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  1:03:02 PM
The OEX has completely flat-lined, this time without that rounding-saucer look.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  1:01:03 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  12:51:38 PM
QQQ's stalled, not budging a penny in the past 45 minutes. Two large volume spikes appear to be supportive, but QQQ hasn't cracked 37.88 yet.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/10/20,  12:50:50 PM
Bullishness at levels seen back at June market top.

With the VIX hovering around the 13 level, I'd say that the odds favor a pullback soon. One should hedge their portfolio here. Link

Watch for a change in the $BPSPX reversal signal. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  12:37:06 PM
On the OEX's 15-minute chart, the OEX still looks as if it's working its way gradually down toward mid-channel support, with that support now at 554.50-555. That support still rises, though, and if the OEX is gradual enough in working its way down, that support will have risen to meet it at the bottom of the rectangular trading range it's formed over this week. On the seven-minute chart, the OEX has acheived an equilibrium position on the Keltner chart, just swinging back and forth in a channel that's now about 2.2 points wide, but growing ever narrower. When the OEX does this, resistance and support lines tend to mass around the ousides of that range and also at the mid-channel level, with the OEX moving across those mid-channel lines as if they weren't there. Just have to wait for a breakout one way or the other now.

The original descending trendline, broken Monday afternoon, off Friday's high is now just above 554, just above Keltner support on the seven-minute Keltner channel. That's a prime place for a possible bounce. A sustained (seven-minute close) decline beneath that might see 550-552 tested. The new and higher descending trendline off Monday's high now crosses at about 559.20, but a breakout there would soon see Keltner resistance and the resistance from Monday's high, needing a confirming move above those, too. I'm wary of the implications of the RSI, CCI, and selling-pressure line on the ADX on the daily chart, so am especially leery of upside breakout plays in this environment. I recognize that a break above that descending trendline would represent a break above the top of a likely bull flag, but because I'm leery I'd suggest that those who believe in more upside to come might instead choose to test a long play on a bounce from support, with a close stop in case you're wrong. I wouldn't consider such a play ahead of the FOMC decision, though. Although it may mean that you'll miss a play, I'd also suggest waiting until the smoke clears a bit after the announcement, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  12:24:38 PM
IBM (IBM) $94.15 +0.88% ... continues its display of impressive strength. However, I think stock pinned just under $95 until November expiration.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  12:21:14 PM
Bonds remain weak, printing what appears to be a descending triangle intraday above 112 support. TNX is up 3.7 bps to 4.255%, knocking on the door of 4.26% resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  12:08:43 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  12:02:21 PM
The OEX did attempt a bounce. (See my 11:44 post.) So far, it hasn't moved far, but may be moving up toward a challenge of Keltner resistance at 558.24. So far, that rectangular range I mentioned earlier today has been preserved.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  12:01:55 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  12:00:43 PM
And failing again at 37.88. 30 min channel resistance is down to 38.00 and 60 min resistance has fallen to 38.14. But the 30 min channel is flattening on the firmness in price above the session lows. QQQ needs to get back below 37.78 to prevent the channel from aborting its downphase. With the Fed announcement drawing nearer, I suspect that the time for big fast moves has passed for now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  11:57:14 AM
The SOX still trades within this rising wedge: Link The average that it just dropped below is the 100-ema, an average that has been important over the last couple of months. We need to see how the SOX closes the day in relationship to this average.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  11:57:06 AM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $40.62 -0.19% ... just checking in.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  11:54:07 AM
QQQ is testing 37.88 resistance again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  11:47:31 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $30.00 +0.23% ... new 52-weeker here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  11:46:51 AM
Russell 2000 Growth iShare (IWO) alert $63.00 +0.23% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  11:44:02 AM
The OEX is flat-lining. I'm noting a bit of a rounding-saucer look to the OEX's mostly flat pattern, though, and wondering about a bounce attempt in the making.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/10/20,  11:41:42 AM
WTIC is up today and if we get a colder than anticipated we could see oil back up over $50. Which would be a negative for equities and a catalyst for a needed correction. Link

On the GHA I've attached an annotated chart with my observations. Link

The VXN is back down in the 19 level where pullbacks have occurred before. Link

The NDX is looking like it is ready to roll over. Link

Of course the Fed will make its decision on rates and if they don't raise a 1/4 point that would also be bearish, as a rate hike has been factored into the market currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  11:40:06 AM
Gold is back to positive territory at 436.30. No luck yet finding a link to that treasury announcement.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  11:36:12 AM
A friend with a Bloomberg terminal is telling me that the Nov 15 treasury auction has just been cancelled because of the debt limit. I'm searching for a link to post here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  11:34:43 AM
R2K and QQQ appear to be in different timezones, with the R2K hitting new highs while QQQ languishes just off the lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  11:27:15 AM
The OEX's Keltner channels are narrowing on the seven-minute chart. Time for a breakout one direction or the other? Should be, but we could already be clamping down into straight-line pre-FOMC meeting trading patterns.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/10/20,  11:23:00 AM
Dateline WSJ Microsoft Corp. tomorrow will start its long-awaited Internet search service, adding fresh competition to Google Inc.

After 18 months of development, the Redmond, Wash., software maker will open a preview version of the search service, according to people familiar with the plan. The company is trying to grab a bigger piece of the lucrative business, now led by Google, of combining Internet search and advertising.

A Microsoft spokeswoman declined to comment on the service. Microsoft, which has been testing its search technology since June, had promised a public version by year end. The company is also working on technology for searching for data on personal computers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  11:16:56 AM
Morgan Stanley has lowered its outlook on the semiconductor capital equipment sector to a cautious one from its previous in-line view. The firm noted that they were seeing a downturn rather than a mere correction in capital spending. The firm also lowered price targets for AMAT, NVLS, CYMI, KLAC, and LRCX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  11:08:54 AM
Bonds have sunk lower, TNX currently up 3.5 bps to 4.253% and testing the 4.26% resistance zone discussed in last night's Futures Wrap. QQQ is holding just north of 37.82 after failing on a spike to 37.88.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  11:07:15 AM
I wondered at what point we'd see a triangle develop this morning. It's now. There's a symmetrical triangle forming on the OEX's one-minute chart, beneath that resistance that I've named so many times already this morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see it widen or maybe morph into another shape.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  11:04:36 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  11:00:29 AM
SHY $81.66 -0.08% ... probes session low

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:59:59 AM
5-year yield ($FVX.X) session high at 3.576%. Gap higher came right at my fitted 38.2% retracement of 3.553%, found morning yield support, now sellers press into FOMC meeting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  10:54:20 AM
I believe the OEX should retrace. I think the zoom up looks completely unsupported. Yet when you look at the shape of the pullback on the OEX's daily chart, that pullback sure looks like a bull flag beneath resistance. We've got last year's example of a similar-looking pullback occurring right in this same level, and I'm not the only one who can spot the comparisons. There are bulls studying last winter's chart, willing and eager to ride the OEX up another 18-19 points if last year's December-January rally is repeated. That's the danger to being too bearish right now. We haven't talked too much about ADX lately, but daily ADX is now at 28.92 for the OEX, with selling pressure in the basement. There's no selling pressure on a daily basis that's showing up yet.

Of course, it's so low that it's actually bearish on a contrarian basis. Smile. It's the lowest it's been since . . . guess when? Last December and January, as the OEX was rushing up toward the year's high, before the long slide down began.

My conclusion? The OEX will correct, at least sideways, if not for a deeper pullback, which would probably get my vote. However, it's dangerous to catch those soaring knives, too, and we just don't know that it's going to happen right now. That looks like a bull flag that's been forming this week, and if it breaks to the upside, we should consider that's just what it is, and go with the trend until the trend breaks. I'd sure be committing less than usual in terms of position size, to those bullish plays, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:54:20 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.59 +0.35% (30-min delayed) ... BIIIIIG turn around in the dollar from session low of 83.70.

From DAILY S2 to DAILY R2. WEEKLY Pivot (84.51) here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:50:04 AM
Buy program premium ... SPX 1,164.54 , QQQ $37.86, MMM $80.96.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:49:03 AM
Nymex crude is down to 47.30 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:47:23 AM
QQQ is retesting 37.78-.82 from below now, printing 37.83 as I type. Declining 7200 tick SMA resistance is currently at 37.96, with next resistance at 37.88. The short cycle downphase will end on a break above the .88 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:37:28 AM
Session lows across the board. QQQ is trading 37.75. The 30 min channel is in a downphase, support down to 37.68, while the 60 min remains flat.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:37:14 AM
Swing trade sell calls alert .... sell six (6) of the Semiconductor HOLDRs Dec. $35 calls (SMH-LG) at the bid of $0.30

SMH $32.05 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  10:34:27 AM
The OEX turns back from its tests of the mid-channel Keltner resistance, this morning's gap and those five-minute 100/130-ema's. Bears need to see a new low of the day, however, to confirm that downturn and keep that possible 552-554 downside target in play. If the OEX does continue to decline, there's danger of a bounce from the 554.70 level, though, the current location of the descending trendline off Friday's high, so bears should be prepared for a potential bounce from 555 on down.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:32:33 AM
QQQ retesting 37.78 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:31:48 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:30:58 AM
Nymex crude has jumped to 47.775 here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/10/20,  10:30:16 AM
Alert - Oil and Gas Inventory = Oil +1.8mb, Gas -400KB, Distillate -100KB (est +2mb, last 289.7B)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:28:16 AM
Cock-a-doodle-doooooo .... Tyson Foods (TSN) $16.78 +4.54%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  10:27:57 AM
Just ahead of the inventories numbers, the OEX is making another attempt on the mid-channel resistance on the Keltner chart, this morning's gap level, and the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages at 557.16 and 557.05, respectively. It's common for indices to be parked beneath important resistance or just above important support just as a potentially market-moving number might be released. I kind of think that whatever effect that the inventories number has, however, it will be quickly tamped out, like a brushfire, while markets await the bigger market-moving event this afternoon. Just an opinion.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:25:18 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:24:49 AM
37.78-37.82 QQQ has held so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:20:23 AM
Swing trade sell puts alert ... sell 5 of the Pfizer Dec. $25 puts (PFE-XE) at the bid of $0.35.

These would be covered by the Jan. $25 puts currently held, but will bring cost basis to $0.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:18:04 AM
Euros and CAD continue to decline along with gold and silver. The weakness in equities seems to confirm that the strength in the dollar is hurting all other assets- the same binary dollar relationship that lined up with the recent rallies.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  10:17:32 AM
Just an opinion: As Tab G. has warned us, we should be watching the GHA, the GSTI Hardware Index, in addition to the SOX, as this index is actually more heavily represented in the NDX. The GHA has been on an absolutely vertical climb. Here's a chart on which I've fitted a Fibonacci retracement bracket where it appears to make the most sense, with the greatest S/R showing up at the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels. From that, it appears that the GHA has just about exhausted its current run without a pullback to regroup. I'm no expert at fitting Fib brackets and haven't backtested this method to see if it's reliable, but it has been on several recent occasions. Here's the chart with the Fib bracket: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:12:30 AM
QQQ is testing 37.80 here. Volume is tame so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:10:54 AM
Session high for Nymex crude here at 47.45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:07:13 AM
30 and 60 min channel support are back down to 37.75 QQQ, with a short cycle and 30 min channel downphase in effect. The 60 min cycle oscillators point down but the channel is flat. It will take a move below 37.80 for at least 10 minutes to change that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:05:59 AM
TASR $55.00 +8% Link ... could get some catipult action higher.

DAILY R1 $54.87 right in here. DAILY R2 higher at $58.72.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  10:05:44 AM
So are we already on hold into the 10:30 inventories numbers? While that's possible, it looks as if the OEX may be failing in its latest attempt to retest the five-minute 100/130-ema's and close this morning's gap, and in its attempt to test mid-channel resistance on the Keltner channels. TRIN is not supporting any bearish conclusions, but 552-554 still appears possible until the OEX gets above that mid-channel level and those five-minute averages and closes this morning's gap. The only problem with that conclusion is that 555.40-ish support lately, joined by the support of the descending trendline off Friday's high, a little lower at 554.85 or so. If in a bearish play, I'd be prepared for a possible bounce from one of those levels, and would be assessing my willingness to weather another climb up through the recent rectangular trading range, if a bounce should occur.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:04:00 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  10:03:19 AM
The Fed has added a whopping 12.5B overnight repo on top of the 9B announced earlier. With 14.25B expiring today, the net add is 7.25B for the day.

 
 
  Stephen Tetreault   11/10/20,  10:00:24 AM
My outlook is one of pure concern, and uncertainty, I’m leaning toward a steep correction over the next few weeks, as I believe the markets will sell-the federal reserve increase today and if the accompanying statement changes any, and paints some uncertainty it could be a swift downdraft, as this recent rally was based on hype, manipulation and the downtrend in crude. And as such, any contagion in the crude markets could send equities into a tail spin. I’m also concerned that the markets have run so very far with out any real back filling or retracement, and so many charts are very over-extended. I’m not opposed to buying real breakouts, but so far so many have occurred due to news hype, silly upgrades and they have not been on compelling volume with very little follow-through. We could move higher from here but the risk reward in my opinion to chasing some of these CRAP stocks is not palatable. I’m looking for some additional “LONG” side plays, but when I conduct my scans, the majority of those signals are now SHORTS.

Today all eyes and ears will be on the Federal Reserve, Uncle Al’s band of merry warriors, and I believe that we could see a possible contagion, not only will the Fed will stay the current course and pace of the current credit-tightening they started this past June (this will be their 4th rate increase from the historic lows) I believe that the Fed could surprise the markets today with a 50-basis point increase due to the plunging dollar, the increasing current account deficits and ever-increasing federal deficit as we continue to spend far more than we receive in tax receipts and the Bush folks are even looking at making the deficits worse.

After spending many hours this past week, looking at the anecdotal evidence I believe the Fed needs to act very quickly to raise rates to stem the outflows or face a very serious monetary crunch that could send the markets and economy into a tail spin. The fed-funds-futures are already being ratcheted upward as the next Fed meeting is scheduled before Christmas (12/14/2004) and there is now a 81% chance of another hike then to take the rate up to 2.25% at that meeting; and we have two additional meetings in 2005Q1 (2/1 and 3/22) and there is nearly a 100% chance of a hike in February and a 29% chance of a hike in March already being priced in; this will surely be a strain to corporations and earnings growth.

We recently heard that The Bush administration said that it will run out of maneuvering room to manage the government's massive borrowing needs next week or the week thereafter; thus putting more pressure on Congress to raise the debt ceiling again. Worse yet Treasury Department officials announced that an auction of four-week Treasury bills due to be completed on 11/18/2004 will have to be postponed unless Congress acts before then to raise the debt ceiling. "Due to debt limit constraints, we currently do not have the capacity to settle our four-week bill auction scheduled to settle on Nov. 18," Timothy Bitsberger, acting assistant Treasury secretary stated. The government hit the current debt ceiling of $7.384 trillion on 10/14/2004, forcing Treasury to begin a series of bookkeeping maneuvers to keep financing the government's normal operations without breaching the debt ceiling. Republicans have proposed that the debt ceiling be raised by $690 billion to $8.074 trillion, an amount that would get the government through next September, when the 2005 budget year ends.

As I have written before I’m very concerned at the publics rush to jump on this train as suggested by the giddy talking-butt-heads. I have continued to ask and search for reasons to see buyer emerge to propel the markets higher, and outside of the GREED factor of some funds that were underperforming, I just do not see the reasons looming. The markets have been in a downtrend...and basically lethargic/lackluster for all for 2004, and suddenly now as we moved into and past the election, would it be wise to expect that this prolonged period of malaise suddenly ended and the downtrend is over? I doubt it. I have learned before that a true bull market waits for nothing; and the suggested fact by so many that this market had waited for months for the outcome of a presidential election to suddenly break out, makes the prospect of this move very questionable and most likely unsustainable, I see it as an intermediate-term bullish move that was manipulated to squeeze some shorts and mark the end of the fiscal year for many funds. From a chartist point of view we are very over-extended here on the 120/180 minute along with the daily/weekly charts in so many of the so called leadership groups (yes we could get more overbought, but this is a very huge red-flag/warning sign) in a diminishing corporate outlook environment for corporate earnings in this profit cycle, and we have continued to see a horde of earnings warnings and reduced outlooks and some dismal guidance moving forward. Not to mention that we are in a rate hiking environment and out deficits are growing by leaps and bounds as the dollar plunges and firms are still very reluctant to hire, and spend the cash they have horded by slashing and burning their expenses, (most often the big expenses cut were employees) and they are not really spending this cash on anything but stock buybacks if that; I continue to see signs of commodity inflation everywhere despite the Fed’s out-look, I wish I could borrow their rose-colored glasses as from my vantage point I see huge looming storm clouds,

In a nut shell I see very little tail winds for stocks in this environment. Oh and when I look at the so-called GREAT jobs report, announced this past Friday, it doesn’t truly add up as they changed the accounting process; and so many of the jobs are being now double counted. We also continue to see that many large firms have continued to announce huge employment cuts and these are good paying jobs that stimulate the economy, not the low-wage benefit-less service jobs being created, that tend not to be a stimulus to the economy.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  9:55:45 AM
The OEX rises to test mid-channel resistance on the 7-minute chart, with that resistance gathering near the current 556.76 level, up toward 557.61.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:53:57 AM
Swing trade 1/2 position call alert Taking one (1) of the TASR Dec. $55 Calls (QUR-LK) at the offer of $5.30. Targeting $60-$63. Place a stop on this one at $2.00. Split run only.

TASR $53.75 +5.4%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  9:50:58 AM
The Fed has 14.25B in various repos expiring today. A 9B 14-day repo has already been announced, leaving 5.25B left to cover with the 10AM announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  9:48:46 AM
The OEX's 30- and 60-minute charts show that the OEX has established a fairly regular rectangular band from about 555.40 to 559.40. It's been a little above and a little below it, but that pretty well defines its recent range. We can watch that range for a breakout, giving it a little leeway to the bottom and top.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  9:45:45 AM
The TRAN has made one attempt at 3600 this morning, rising almost to 3595, but hasn't been able to touch 3600 yet. It hasn't fallen far, either, at 3588.29 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:45:29 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $53.23 +4.27% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  9:44:15 AM
Gold has flipped back to negative, -1.20 at 434.90 while bonds are recovering from their earlier losses, TNX up 1.8 bps at 4.236% currently. Euros have pulled back to 1.2933 as well. The indices sold off at the open but remained within the blender range, with QQQ trading 37.92.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:41:13 AM
Lehman 1-3 year iShares (SHY) $81.70 -0.03% ... Monday's low of $81.62 never tested, with current session low being $81.66.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:39:05 AM
Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $62.52 -0.52% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:38:02 AM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.15 +0.31% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:37:25 AM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.34 -1.2% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  9:36:13 AM
The OEX opens below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, tries to rise to retest them, and falls again. Those higher futures fooled me this morning. You can't always extrapolate futures action on the S&P to the OEX's behavior. I know that, but was bamboozled by those futures levels. As I said last night, though, anyone entering any position, bearish or bullish, might find the decision to trade this morning deleterious to their trading accounts.

The OEX is now headed down to possible Keltner support at 556.13 and to the suport from its former descending trendline off Friday's high. These should be potential support, but as I said yesterday, the OEX is vulnerable to 552-554, and will remain so unless it can move back above 556.80 and sustain values above that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:35:32 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $27.20 -2.85% ... 52-week lows and defensive yet again following a report citing health risks about its Bextra drug.

The New York Times reported that a preliminary study found that patients using Pfizer's arthritis drug had 2.19 times the number of heart attacks or strokes than those using placebos.

Pfizer's Bextra has also been linked to a rare, aggressive and somtimes fatal skin rash.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  9:31:05 AM
The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators continue to take a troubled grind lower as price remains pegged in this infernal range. Look for some resolution on a break above 38.20 or below 37.78, hopefully with a surge of volume on the break to simplify matters for us.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  9:29:55 AM
Markets have had a tendency sometimes to make their big move (usually up lately) early in the trading day, when options prices are most inflated, and then to just sit the rest of the day while volatility seeps away and carries options premium along with it. Ahead of crude inventories at 10:30, expected to show an increase, and the FOMC meeting and with that tendency lately in mind, I'm going to be leery of suggesting hopping into a bullish play. I'm suggesting a wait-and-see attitude for this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  8:44:39 AM
5-year yield ($FVX.X) .... jumping 5.3 bp to 3.563%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  8:44:03 AM
Headline:

8:42am EURO TOUCHES NEW RECORD AT $1.30, NOW AT $1.2967

This refers to the December E7Z4 contract, which is down to 1.2963 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  8:38:26 AM
Euros are back to a new session high at 1.2994, while QQQ holds at 38.02.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  8:33:43 AM
Equities popped briefly and treasuries dived briefly, but are back to their previous levels. Gold and silver are lower, as are euros and CAD futures. QQQ is currently trading 38.04.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  8:31:26 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP WITH EUROLAND FALLS 29%

8:30am U.S. SEPT. NON-OIL IMPORTS RECORD $109 BLN

8:30am U.S. SEPT. IMPORTED OIL DECLINES TO 10.1 MLN BARREL/DAY

8:30am U.S. SEPT. IMPORTED OIL PRICE RECORD $37.62/BARREL

8:30am U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $15.5 BLN

8:30am U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP REVISED LOWER TO $53.5 BLN

8:30am U.S. SEPT. EXPORTS UP 0.8% TO $97.5 BLN

8:30am U.S. SEPT. IMPORTS DOWN 0.8% TO $149 BLN

8:30am U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP NARROWS 3.7% TO $51.6 BLN

DJ US Jobless Claims +2K To 333K Nov 6 Week

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  8:30:08 AM
Data due now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  8:25:12 AM
Session high for euro futures at 1.298 and silver at 7.581. Ten year notes are down, TNX up 2.3 bps to 4.214%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/10/20,  7:54:08 AM
Equities are higher across the board, ES 1167, NQ 1529.5, YM 10409, ER 607.60 and QQQ +.11 at 37.98. Gold is up 1.80 to 437.90, silver is up .03 to a session high of 7.564, ten year notes down .125 to 112.1562 and Nymex crude -.225 to 47.15.

We await the 8:30 release of the trade balance, est. -54B, import prices ex oil and export prices ex agriculture, prior +.1% and +.2% respectively, and initial claims, est. 340K.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  7:12:53 AM
Good morning. Easing crude and a firming dollar were variously attributed as the forces behind gains in foreign bourses. Most Asian bourses closed in the green, and European bourses are trading there now. Our futures drifted higher during the overnight session, too. As of 6:55 EST, gold was up $0.20 and crude, down $0.30. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With crude prices continuing to ease and the dollar continuing to firm yesterday, the Nikkei coiled just above 11,000 during the morning session. At the open of the afternoon session, the Nikkei dropped all the way to the flat-line level, testing it twice before rising again. That rise topped out at a descending trendline that has been building for three days on the Nikkei. Gains were characteristically modest ahead of the U.S.'s FOMC meeting today, but this was still the Nikkei's first gain in three sessions.

Individual issues tended to react to news affecting that issue. NTT fell ahead of its after-the-close earnings release. During that earnings release, the company raised its net profit estimate for the full year from that previously given. Honda Motor gained after announcing that it would spend $270 million in expansion plans in the U.S., creating 600 new jobs.

Other Asian markets mostly gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.06%. South Korea's Kospi has been hurt lately by the dollar's weakness against the won, but today, a central bank official emphasized that the government would intervene to weaken the won against the dollar if necessary. South Korean exporters climbed, sending the Kospi to a 1.94% gain. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.57%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.15%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 3.59%.

Currently, most European bourses gain, too, helped by weaker crude prices. In the U.K., Cable and Wireless reported lower revenue, higher pre-tax profit before items, a stock buyback and restructuring plan, with that report well received, helping to send the FTSE 100 higher. Throughout Europe, network-related stocks tended to rise despite CSCO sales that were deemed disappointing. French stocks Total, an oil major, and AXA, an insurance company, rose after their earnings reports. AXA's rise came despite easing sales that were at the lower end of expectations. Other companies reacted according to their earnings reports or other news, too.

As of 6:55 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 22 points or 0.47%, to trade at 4,739.70. The CAC 40 had gained 18.52 points or 0.49%, to trade at 3,788.46. The DAX had gained 29.93 points or 0.74%, to trade at 4,095.26.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:45:56 PM
Reminder ... bond market is closed on Thursday for Veteran's Day.

If your kids want to grow up to be institutional traders, tell them to trade bonds. More vacation days than stock traders!!!!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/9/200,  9:41:58 PM
Tuesday, the OEX continued its consolidation in the same zone in which it consolidated in early January, after rallying straight up from the same 522-ish level. Tonight, we received CSCO earnings, and tomorrow morning, we have a slew of economic releases, including the moved-up-a-day initial claims numbers. Crude inventories might be especially important given the pullback in crude prices and the widely expected further increase in inventories. Any disappointment in those inventories number might be keenly felt. Based on Keltner evidence, a study of last January's trading patterns, and other evidence, I wouldn't be surprised to see a punch down toward 552-554 tomorrow and then a bounce from there. How far that bounce might take the OEX and whether the punch lower is part of a bull flag or sideways-to-down consolidation or something more ominous, I'm just not sure yet.

Let me caution, though, that taking any trade tomorrow can be dangerous to your trading account's health, especially ahead of the FOMC decision.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/9/200,  9:36:24 PM
RIMM We are trying to reenter RIMM in the LEAPs section after being stopped out for a profit last week on the drop. The court is expected to announce its decision this week and it is not expected to be in RIMMs favor. RIMM has the case on appeal and has been escrowing 8.5% of all Blackberry sales just in case it loses. Since the money is already reserved under the lower court ruling it will not have any impact if they lose the current appeal. What would impact them is a restriction on future Blackberry sales.

The LEAPs section is hoping for a touch of $70 and the 100 day average for a long entry on any news dip.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/9/200,  9:32:10 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) .... Hi Jeff & Linda, Any news you can highlight on --RIMM-- or opinions would be highly appreciated... aware that RIMM will await pending judgement on a lawsuit...this week.. Since you have quicker access than we do regard news info .... Would be helpful to receive this from your end.. We will watch Market Monitor.....

I don't watch the news wires like a hawk as I've got plenty on my plate during a day.

However, what I do like to do when I expect some important news is set some alerts.

WEEKLY Pivot levels for RIMM are S2-R2 ... $65.12, $71.42, Piv = $83.30, R1 = $89.59, R2 = $101.46.

With RIMM's weekly range so far being... $72.17-$81.37, I'll set alerts below WEEKLY S1 and above WEEKLY Pivot. If triggered, I'll search the news wires.

Here's a 30-minute interval chart of RIMM with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels for the past three weeks and this week. Link

I placed a downward "awaiting pending judgement on lawsuit" trend on the chart too.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/9/200,  9:29:14 PM
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