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  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  6:49:46 PM
Dell update alert ... now higher by 77 cents at $38.02.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  5:16:36 PM
STM heard on the wires just now that STM will be mentioned favorably in this weekends Business Week magazine.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  5:13:13 PM
PIXR guiding higher on their call to $2.10-$2.20 compared to analysts estimates of $1.95 for the full year.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  5:10:53 PM
Alert - BEAS giving revenue guidance on their call for a slight increase in revenue for the current quarter. HOWEVER, they are NOT seeing any increase in IT spending and only the normal seasonal patterns.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  4:46:37 PM
Alert - PIXR earnings = +0.38, est +0.24 BIG beat

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  4:10:47 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Day trade long the QQQ at $38.04, sold at target of $38.20. ($0.16, or +0.42%)

Day trade long the SMH at $32.55, stopped at $32.40 ($-0.15, or -0.46%)

Raised a stop for the TASR Dec. $55 call (QUR-LK) should the stock trade $55.75.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  4:10:34 PM
Alert - BEAS earnings = +0.09, est +0.08 beat

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  4:04:30 PM
Alert - A earnings = +0.30, est +0.31 - miss

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  4:01:15 PM
Alert - DELL earnings = +0.33, est +0.33
4Q Guidance inline with estimates at +0.36 cents. Dell trading down -55 cents.

According to Mr. Rollins, Dell's fourth-quarter product shipments should be about 20 percent higher than in the same year-ago period. Such growth is expected to produce quarterly revenue of about $13.5 billion, up 17 percent, and earnings per share of 36 cents, a 24-percent increase.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  4:00:31 PM
KSS earnings = +0.42, est +0.42

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:58:37 PM
As I type, the TRAN is at 3623.57, at its high of the day. The OEX may be hesitating beneath that important Fib level, but there's no hesitation there, at all.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:57:53 PM
MMM interesting little spike in volume at $82.00. Might be somebody's elses "key level" too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:56:49 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $27.16 -1.16% ... not participating. I would have thought $27.50 "Max Pain" level. Might be.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:53:47 PM
Key stock upside alert .... 3M (MMM) $82.00 +1.42% ... and challenges its 200-day SMA here. Trade at $82.00 completes the "low pole warning" generates double-top buy signal, with longer-term bullish vertical count hinting at $99.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:50:35 PM
The OEX resists (so far) falling toward the confirmation level for the double-top formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:50:30 PM
Bullish day trade stop alert ... for the Seconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.40 here.

Expect a VERY sloppy range of $32.10-$32.90 next week.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:43:43 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $41.52 +1.88% Link ... no, that's not my "key stock," but its a leading indicator stock.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  3:43:23 PM
EBAY up +3.89 at 108.00 - time for a stock split. They normally announce a 2:1 around $100.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:42:09 PM
Potential double-top on the OEX's three-minute chart, just under 561.23, the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:41:42 PM
My "key stock" is up 1.21%, but hasn't given the "all clear" signal yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:39:08 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 376.63 +1.21% ... nobody's holding them back.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:37:49 PM
OEX heads up toward that 38.2% retracement at 561.23.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:36:40 PM
SMH $32.50 +1.94% .... here are some "Options market maker thoughts" I have right now.

With QQQ/NDX blowing up, bullish bias most likely overriding right now. My (Jeff Bailey's) thoughts are that the SMH options market maker may not be able to keep the SMH pinned at $32.50 too much longer, and might just let it go to $32.90-$33.00.

Then, if order flow is at the bid, he/she will probably look for a last couple of day pin back at $32.50, to try and keep as much of that $32.50 call open interest as possible.

If things get too bullish, then SMH is going to be tougher to pin at $32.50.

Think about the sudden "ramp" in new 52-week highs we saw in the last hour. What's going on there? Can't hold them back?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:36:07 PM
The OEX is hesitating just above the right-shoulder level. We're about to get MOC orders, so be careful.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  3:31:00 PM
Earnings after the close

A est +0.31
KSS est +0.42
BEAS est +0.08
DELL est +0.33
ISLE est +0.02
PIXR est +0.24

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/11/20,  3:27:03 PM
Dateline WSJ - President Bush set out a broad economic agenda for his second term after winning re-election last week, putting an overhaul of the nation's tax code and reform of Social Security at the top of his to-do list. But some private economists say he should have a different top priority.

According to the 55 economists who participated in The Wall Street Journal Online's November economic forecasting survey, along with tackling Social Security's ills the president should be placing equal emphasis on reducing what more than half of them agree is the biggest economic challenge facing his administration: the government's yawning budget deficit.

The U.S. budget deficit reached $413 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, equal to 3.6% of gross domestic product. (GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy.) The economists expect the Bush administration to make progress on reducing the gap: They predict the deficit will shrink to 3.1% of GDP by the end of fiscal 2005 and to 2.5% in 2008.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:26:59 PM
The OEX is attempting to reject the H&S formation and move up toward a test of the day's high, the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline, and the top of today's ascending regression channel, with that being at about 561.60 currently. It looks as if the bulls are getting a little timid, though, and need the help of scared shorts if they're going to drive it any higher into the close. I think it can happen if bulls just don't get too scared and pull their positions.

Tomorrow could start off with a blast higher, but I still think this is a scary place to hold overnight. Make your own decisions according to your own trading style, account size, position size, and other factors, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:22:04 PM
The OEX inches up toward a test of the right-shoulder level. A move above 560.60 might suggest a move back toward today's high and maybe higher, as the H&S is rejected. Hasn't happened yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:18:42 PM
I'm not in a play today, other than fake ones I'm demo-ing, and I'm even out of those right now, as I think the action is too iffy at this moment. But as I related earlier, if I were in play, I'd have been in a "hold my nose" bullish one on the OEX. However, I'd be running out of breath right now. The OEX appears to be trying to reject the H&S, but it hasn't done it yet. I get scared easily and sometimes don't let my profits run long enough, so take this advice with that knowledge in mind, but I'd sure be thinking about exiting if the OEX can't move higher soon, and I'd be doing it if the OEX violated that H&S neckline and moved below 560, too. I'd also exit if the OEX does move higher, as it approached the 561.23 level. That's just me.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  3:15:39 PM
Still no test of 38.18-.20 support, with QQQ hanging in a narrow "flagpole rally" range after the runup. The wavelet downphase is nearing the bottom of its range, and could setup a retest of the highs for its next upphase due in a few minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:15:18 PM
The OEX inches up from its test of the potential H&S. Bulls want to see a move above the right shoulder, at 560.60. Careful here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:12:29 PM
SMH $32.44 .... QQQ $38.27

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:11:33 PM
The OEX has been climbing within this ascending regression channel, but now tests the confirmation level of a H&S on the three-minute chart. Its target would be at the bottom of the channel. Bulls, assess whether you want to stick around for that downside target if the OEX confirms that formation. Link Remember that it could be rejected, too, sending the OEX higher instead, so watch closely as the neckline is tested.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:07:47 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

Sudden ramp in NH at the NYSE.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  3:06:39 PM
The article on CNBC about an hour ago definitely caused some buying. The reporter said the new MSN Search was good but a long way from Google and the stock took off before the 4 min article was even over. 39.1 million shares due out next Tuesday. We will see how the bulls digest that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  3:02:47 PM
Google (GOOG) 180.78 +7.6% ... that lockup may not come soon enough Jim!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  3:00:35 PM
So far, bulls, despite my fright over the approach to the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline, the OEX is finding support just where you'd hope to see it find support. The OEX needs to achieve a new day's high before you begin breathing too easily, though. Keep those stops ready in case they're needed.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/11/20,  2:58:17 PM
Can the INDU go higher? Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:54:57 PM
Uh-oh, bulls. The calculated (not snapped) 38.2% retracement of the full bear-market decline for the OEX is at 561.23. Today's high has been 561.02. We can see on that chart I linked to my 14:36 post that the entire 556-563 zone has been one known for S/R through many years. Careful here. Means a lot if markets get over this: it's significant resistance, too, and the OEX may not get past it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  2:51:35 PM
The short cycles are maxxed out and a wavelet downphase has kicked off. QQQ 38.18-.20 support should be tested again, but volume's already dropping on the pullback.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:50:32 PM
I knew I remembered that 563 number for some reason. That's the 38.2% retracement of the decline from tthe OEX's March 2000 high to the July, 2002 low. Be careful, bulls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:47:57 PM
I have added a chart and further explanations of the importance of the OEX 563-ish zone to my 14:36 post. Those in bullish plays should probably be making some profit-protecting plans related to that zone, as the post explains.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:44:30 PM
SMH $32.51 .... sniff's of $32.80 tomorrow.

not all of that $32.50 is call buyers you know.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:43:47 PM
QQQ $38.28 +1.32% ... trying to hold them back here, but DAILY R2 acting like support.

WEEKLY R1 could be a target for tomorrow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:40:01 PM
VXN.X 18.80 -3.14% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:36:13 PM
About 562.90-563 marks the top of a consolidation band for the OEX. I'd have profit-protecting plans in place on an approach to that level.

You've seen this chart lately showing comparisons to the current rally and the Santa Claus rally last year: About 562.90-563 marks the top of a consolidation band for the OEX. I'd have profit-protecting plans in place on an approach to that level.

You've seen this chart lately showing comparisons to the current rally and the Santa Claus rally last year. Link Note the top blue horizontal line, marking a consolidation band and note that the OEX is now moving toward the top of that band. Ahead of Dell earnings and after a strong short-covering push today, this may be a dangerous place to be parked overnight. Consider profit-protecting plans as the top of this band is approached, beginning right now, and consider automatically exiting some or all of your positions near 563, if that's approached. Those of you who like to hit a particular target with an entry could consider that for a bearish entry, but I don't think that's an approach I'd suggest.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:35:24 PM
Day trade long alert for the Semi Holdrs (SMH) $32.55 here, stop $32.40, target $32.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:33:58 PM
Seven-minute Keltner resistance is now at 560.78, with the OEX charging up toward it. Those in bullish OEX plays need to periodically snap Fib brackets onto the most recent climb, the climb off the 13:21 low, to ascertain where a modest 25-38.2% pullback would take the OEX, so as to determine your comfort with setting your stops just beneath such a modest pullback.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  2:32:39 PM
That little retest of 38.18-.20 hasn't been repeated, and QQQ just printed a new high at 38.30. This is all bullish action, and the outlook is bullish above 38.18-.20. This higher support is the higher version of previous key support in the 37.70-.78 range this week. Higher highs and higher lows are the theme- I expect that the daily cycle bearish kisses will be "undrawn" if the indices close at or above current levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:31:19 PM
SMH $32.50 +1.97% ...

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/11/20,  2:29:24 PM
Annotated MUR chart: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  2:28:40 PM
Alert - Russell cash at new all time high at 614.17

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:26:53 PM
Thanks.... doesn't seem like it would be worth an option's MM time to try and go after the $39's then. $38.50 settle isn't out of the question. Make sure the $38s finish out.

Hmmmm... SMH $32.50 and QQQ $38.50 ????

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:26:48 PM
The OEX pauses underneath 7-minute Keltner resistance, and may need a pullback to test resistance turned support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  2:24:45 PM
Pcquote reports open interest of 40958 contracts for the Nov 39 puts vs. 106146 contracts for the Nov. 38s.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:22:36 PM
Jonathan ... I don't have open interest numbers today. Any idea what the OI is the November $39 puts versus the $38s?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  2:20:51 PM
38.18-.20 has just held for its first test, but we won't know until the session high at 38.29 has been taken out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:20:32 PM
Jim talked about the Russell 2000 coming within a few cents of the all-time high of 614.17. That all-time high was in early March, 2000. Does that scare anyone else but me?

However, there are lots of bullish chart characteristics to support the thesis that the Russell 2000 could still go higher. On the weekly chart, there's a nicely formed inverse H&S (but of a continuation type) that's been confirmed, and it has an upside target just under 670. Weekly chart-wise, it looks fine. Still scares me. Keltner weekly chart wise, there are some troubling characteristics, though, as the Russell 2000 approaching this price.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  2:20:08 PM
The SPX is very close to very strong resistance at 1175 which was the resistance high for all of 2002 and lat 2001. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:16:56 PM
The SOX has moved back into the gap from Wednesday morning. This should be an area in which the SOX needs to consolidate for a while, if not pull back.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:15:10 PM
The TRAN moved to a nominal new high, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  2:14:30 PM
QQQ is now retesting 38.18-.20 from above.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/11/20,  2:14:19 PM
Russell cash came within .55 of a new all time high at 614.17.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:12:41 PM
Here's the test of 560 on the OEX. Bullish traders will need to make decisions this afternoon about whether they want to carry over tonight with Dell's earnings, so be sure you make trading decisions with end-of-day decision in mind. The seven-minute Keltner chart shows upper resistance now at 560.64. Keep following the OEX higher with your stops, but perhaps don't get them too close just yet, as the OEX may need to pull back to 559.40 or so to retest broken resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  2:10:53 PM
Price broke as I was typing- currently 38.26 on a quick jump.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:10:34 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert for the QQQ $38.25 here. Just blew through $38.20. Almost like a short was covering.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  2:10:27 PM
QQQ is now approaching 30 min channel resistance at 38.18-.20, which is a key test both cycle- and confluence-wise. A break above the .20 level for longer than 5 minutes should yield a strong upside move within the now upphasing 30 and 60 min cycle channels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:09:06 PM
SMH $32.40 +1.66% ... most active options are Nov. $32.50 c (11,183) and the Nov. $30 c (9,207).

Price isn't cooperating with a $31.25 split.

Nov. $32.50 puts get some action with 2,001 traded.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  2:07:48 PM
Looks as if I wouldn't have had to jump ship just yet with my hypothetical "holding my nose" long. The OEX is continuing to move up toward a challenge of Friday's high. The OEX is pointing up toward a test of 560, but I do mean "pointing," in the form of a rising wedge that's narrowing as the OEX moves higher. Those are supposedly bearish, but you know the drill by now. They seem to break as often to the upside these days as they do to the downside. If you're in a real trade today and not playing around with a demo system, as I am, then be careful with your real money. I'm intentionally using today for another purpose because I don't trust low-volume days, particularly when the bond market isn't open for us to measure action against. Trading can sometimes be aimless or tricky in that environment.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:05:38 PM
QQQ $38.15 and a session high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:03:46 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $58.04 +5.95% ... some volume back in the intra-day zone and RED #1

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  2:03:00 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.36 +1.53% .... I'd better check in on any $32.50 call action.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  1:59:16 PM
I gotcha.... my QQQ trade is just a bullish attempt on hopes a big short looks to cover in this light volume session. If he/she does, should get a DAILY R2.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  1:58:58 PM
Session high for euros here at 1.2919, with gold also higher at 435.60, +1.10. QQQ is 4 cents off its session high, and it looks like QQQ is trading against the dollar here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  1:53:41 PM
I'm not anything on the OEX, Jeff. I don't like trading these low-volume days. I'm spending the day demo-ing a new system, and I'm having lots of fun jumping in and out both directions--with my "monopoly" money.

However, if I were anything on the OEX, Jeff, I'd be "holding my nose" long and ready to jump ship at any moment.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  1:51:33 PM
You still short here then Linda?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  1:49:05 PM
A stop-running push higher, right at 1:45, the time when I most used to call my traditional broker long ago and get out of my positions, only to find that the thing had reversed again by the time I finished the phone call. Watch carefully, as there's now the potential for a double-top on the OEX, and that wouldn't be good for bullish positions. Looks as if bulls are getting suckered in on the breakouts. This doesn't feel right, which is the reason that I can't bring myself to be bullish today even when I see these breakouts, but I still have this feeling that markets could go higher. I think we'll know very soon. If you're in a bullish play, you can't like what you're seeing, but it's not all over yet, either.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  1:34:33 PM
The OEX comes up now to test the broken rising trendline that had been supporting it all day. That trendline now crosses at about 558.77, just below the 559-ish descending trendline off Friday's high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  1:25:33 PM
Taking it a step further in light of the impending op-ex week, thinking like a criminal for a moment, "they" might want to jam the market above 38.20 QQQ to suck in the last round of call buyers, and then make a run for those lower levels. This would coincide with a terminal/exhaustion move from the daily cycle upphase, and fake out the greatest number of market participants in the process. Just a guess.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  1:21:50 PM
This little downtick in QQQ is lining up a test of the rising 7200 tick SMA on the 100 tick chart at 37.97. A break below that level for 5-10 minutes should flatten the 30 min cycle channel from its weak upphase. In light of the bearish kisses on the daily cycle yesterday, I find the lack of upside price traction today to be quite bearish. If bulls can't generate a rally from the overdue 30 and 60 min cycle upphases, then that means that the rollover on the daily cycle is for real. If so, then we wait for a downside break of 37.70 to confirm that the downphase will drive the price.

A break above 38.20 on volume would be the bullish alternative.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  1:21:08 PM
The TRAN continues rolling down, at 3596.88 as I type. It looks as if it may come up to retest 3600, but should find resistance there too strong, and then should turn down toward 3595 or even 3590.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  1:18:42 PM
The OEX eased below the short-term trendline it had established today. Until 557.90, nearby resistance looks stronger than nearby support, so it's possible the OEX could be working its way down to 557.90 or maybe even 557.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  1:17:54 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  1:16:06 PM
The TRAN rolled down beneath 3600 again, at 3598.66 as I type, down from the day's 3605.28 high. Five-minute MACD made a bearish cross as the TRAN began rolling down.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  1:08:36 PM
So far, although I'm worried about the "breakout's" behavior on the OEX, the OEX is holding above the short-term ascending trendline that was formed today, but the OEX currently tests that trendline, at about 558.50. Bulls want to see a bounce and move back above 559 for a start.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  1:06:23 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:59:58 PM
The OEX heads up for another test of the descending trendline off Friday's high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  12:59:03 PM
Both the 30 and 60 minute cycle oscillators are in what is already the longest upphase since last Thursday. While today's gains are respectable, the range for QQQ hasn't broken to the upside, and bulls need to do better than this if they intend to avoid a retest of the 37.70 level. 38.18-.20 is the number to beat, and if those cycles start to get better price traction, then bulls could get their breakout. But at the current rate, it's going to be a photo finish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  12:56:48 PM
Tyson (TSN) $16.41 +1.23% .... they report quarterly earnings on Monday morning. Consensus is for $0.16.

At just about yesterday's price high, I went back and looked and on September 1 (TSN trading $16.40-ish), Wachovia wrote a nasty downgrade note on TSN and Smithfield Foods (SFD) citing rising chicken inventories. The one note that I didn't understand was "the likely supply impact of plummeting feed costs.

One reason I had been keeping an eye on TSN and made comments in Monday's Market Monitor (Tuesday's archive) of PPC and TSN was the sharp declines in corn and wheat commodities. I would have thought falling grain prices good for poultry and cattle producers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  12:49:32 PM
QQQ .... a lot of action today in the QQQ Dec. $35 calls $3.10 and Dec. $36 calls $2.05.

This "has to be" call sellers today.

Dec. $39 is #3 at $0.45.

QQQ $38.03 here.

I might be wrong regarding the "has to be" call seller. Friday tends to be a bullish session historically, and could be call seller, with proceeds going to the $39 call for a little pop.

VXN.X 18.84 -2.93%, so there's got to be some call buyers/put sellers today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:48:10 PM
Careful, OEX bulls. The OEX couldn't make headway after nominally breaking above that descending trendline and now comes back inside the recent range again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:44:28 PM
Not only do I see prices rising in bearish wedges, I see currency pairs hinting that the dollar is about to weaken again on an intraday basis. Sometimes lately there's been a rough correlation between downturns in the dollar and downturns in equities. It doesn't always work that way, as there are periods when equities respond positively to a weak dollar, but that's been a trend lately.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:42:10 PM
I agree with Jane's assessment (her 12:40 post on the Futures side) of the look of the rising prices today. Unfortunately, bearish wedges don't always break to the downside or even routinely do it lately, but that's what I see, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:38:32 PM
The OEX sinks back, printing tiny seven-minute candles at the breakout level, with those candles having upper shadows. This isn't a clear bullish victory and won't be until the OEX is above that trendline and then Friday's high. As I mentioned earlier, those who felt inclined to enter a bullish trade--just can't make myself be too bullish today, although I'm talking to myself and trying to get that way--should be prepare for a possible reversal.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  12:30:25 PM
QQQ volume is declining as price rises, and volume was slim to begin with. 60 min channel resistance is at 38.10, 30 min resistance 38.18. Neither cycle is showing much oomph, but the bottom line is that price isn't declining so far today, with a higher and higher low over yesterday's range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:29:07 PM
The OEX is pulling back toward the Keltner breakout level. Bulls don't want to see the OEX immediately drop beneath 559 again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  12:28:26 PM
Bullish day trade long alert .... for the QQQ $38.04 here, stop $37.95, target $38.20 by the close.

BLUE #5 and DAILY R2 overlap at $38.26-$38.25.

MSFT $30.00 up at its DAILY R2

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:27:42 PM
The OEX has broken above the trendline from Friday's high. Unless there's a quick reversal, it's setting up for a test of Friday's high and 560.44, but watch for that quick reversal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:25:14 PM
The OEX moves up toward that trendline again. This is either a good place to short or a good place to watch for a long entry, and I have not a clue which it is. Those buying the breakout should be aware of the potential to be reversed at 560, near Friday's 559.99 high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  12:24:49 PM
Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 (MSH.X) rings the bell again at its 61.8% retracement of 473.66.

"Cheater's trend" just above at 477.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  12:22:36 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  12:19:02 PM
The OEX inches up toward the descending trendline off Friday's high, at about 559 now, with the OEX at 558.45, just below what I think is its high of the day. There's continuing bearish divergence each time the OEX touches the Keltner line that's just below that trendline now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  12:00:10 PM
There's a 30 minute cycle upphase in progress for QQQ that appears to have violated the trend of lower oscillator highs in place for the past few days. Of course, price is going net nowhere, but from a slightly higher level today, and the cycle channels are nearly flat. Channel resistance has risen to 38.18 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  11:57:55 AM
The TRAN is above 3600, at 3601.95, a new recent high, but showing continuing Keltner bearish divergence. The TRAN just keeps climbing, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  11:48:05 AM
Tasered to 25 feet this morning's jump higher in TASR looks to have come from the company's announcement that it will debut its new 25 foot XP air cartridge at the International Association of Chiefs Police Conference.

Accuracy is reported as good as the 21 foot model.

TASR up $3.00 here, so let's call it the new "buck-a-foot" XP Air.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  11:45:49 AM
Session highs for gold and silver futures here, with Nymex crude trading 47.50, -1.35 or 2.76%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  11:45:16 AM
To me, the OEX appears to be coiling into a triangle. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  11:34:10 AM
Gold is back in the green, with Dec. gold futures currently up 70 cents at 435.20... but volume is very light at just 895 contracts. HUI and XAU are both up fractionally, +.45% and .62% respectively.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/11/20,  11:31:54 AM
Linda, you bring up a valid point. (See Linda's 10:47 post.) How has the dollar's move correlated to the SPX and oil markets. Also how about the move in the $TNX? Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  11:26:41 AM
If anything, the OEX is narrowing its range even further--we can hope that means a breakout to come soon. There may be a continuation-form inverse H&S forming, but this morning's missing data makes that uncertain. If so, it has a neckline at about 558.70, below the 559-ish top of the descending trendline off Friday's high. I don't trust these continuation-form ones, particularly when I had to go to a two-minute chart to even see it, but we can at least watch what develops to see if it suggests that the OEX is headed up to or possibly through that descending trendline. So far, that hasn't happened, and the OEX trades in that narrow range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  11:15:23 AM
About all I can say is that I'm continuing to see bearish Keltner-style and price/MACD divergence on each swing-high on the OEX's even-minute chart. This last one, if it really wa sa swing high, continued that pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  11:07:11 AM
Oil Service (OSX.X) 116.10 -0.59% ... has been riding its DAILY Pivot as support all morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  11:05:18 AM
The short cycles are pretty chopped up on QQQ, but appear to be rolling over from near the top of their range. The high at the channel resistance bands was not violated, and 30 min channel support is currently 37.75, 60 min support 37.62. A move below 37.88 will put the ball back in the bears' court, while a break below 37.95 should kick off a new short cycle downphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  11:04:49 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  11:02:16 AM
The OEX still trades within its recent range. I've been watching the advdec line to see if it could give us an advance look at likely action (creeping up all day, sinking down all day: that sort of thing), but it's just oscillating around, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:58:30 AM
10:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  10:51:56 AM
QQQ's just stopped at overlapping 30 and 60 min cycle channel resistance of 38.12 (session high 38.13). Next resistance above this level is in teh 38.17-.20 zone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  10:47:28 AM
Tab's 10:43 post makes me wonder whether the dollar's weakness will produce even stronger swings in the SPX in opposition to crude prices. Some countries are welcoming strength in their currencies against the dollar more than they have previously (because it hurts their exporters) because of the cost of crude. It helps offset the deleterious effect since crude is paid for in dollars. I don't pretend to be an expert on this. Just wondering.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:47:24 AM
VIX.X 12.88 -1.52% ... DAILY Pivot levels ... 12.39, 12.70, Piv = 13.11 13.42, 13.82.

Getting close to some overlap with WEEKLY S1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  10:43:56 AM
Session low for Nymex crude at 47.65 here.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/11/20,  10:43:43 AM
Definite inverse correlation last 6 months between WTIC/SPX: Link Link What will the WTIC chart look like during this winter's deep freeze?

Murphy Oil (MUR) continues to bounce off its 100-ema: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  10:38:17 AM
Is that a bounce off the OEX's 557-ish support? Let me get out my stronger reading glasses so I can see. In this kind of environment, it's dangerous to microanalyze. I think we just have to wait for the range-breaks now.

 
 
  Keene Little   11/11/20,  10:36:03 AM
Jonathan, looking at the 60-min chart of the DOW and SPX makes me think you better get out those paddles and shock the patient.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:35:39 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  10:30:43 AM
Gold is flat at 434.50, off from a lower high of 435.60. XAU is up .11% at 105.59, HUI -.16% at 237.07.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:29:39 AM
TASR $57.66 +5.22% ... here's my intra-day chart with upper/lower 5-MRT and DAILY Pivot levels. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  10:28:08 AM
I don't see anything on the OEX's intraday charts that shows us what's going to happen next: no pattern, no oscillator movement, no nothing. The OEX trades in a roughly rectangular range and all oscillators have flat-lined while it's doing it. We just have to watch that roughly 555-560 range, although 555.40-559.40 contains most of the movements since the range developed. It's got a slightly downward cast, but bull flags turn down, too.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/11/20,  10:25:03 AM
Just off the AP newsline: Link

---"But analysts suggested prices could soon head upward again.

"All we need is a cold snap, particularly in the United States," said Kevin Norrish, head of commodities research at Barclay's Capital, or evidence that China is returning to the market in force and buying."

Chinese crude imports slowed in September from peak summer levels, and an interest rate hike in late October -- while small -- "made people nervous," said Norrish."-----

This pullback in oil maybe only temporary and reverse the rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  10:22:48 AM
The OEX sinks oh-so-slowly down to test Keltner support. There may or may not be a morning gap there on the OEX, too, as the interruption in data feed doesn't allow us to see whether the OEX is also testing a morning gap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:18:08 AM
Swing trade raise stop alert ... for the TASR Dec. $55 call.

Let's raise the stop and close out if TASR trades $55.75. Just below RED #3.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  10:17:27 AM
The 30 minute channel has turned up for QQQ, with resistance up to 38.05 beneath the 60 min channel top at 38.10. If bulls can get north of 38.20, I expect a real upphase to launch in these key timeframes (as compared with the rangebound, short lived bumps we've been seeing all week).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:17:14 AM
TASR $57.03 +4% ... opening 5-minute bar was from $59.27-$58.05 for those using the 5-MRT intra-day levels.

DAILY Pivot to R2 is $53.71, $56.63 and $58.53.

Overlap intra-day support at $56.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  10:13:10 AM
No breakout on the OEX. No breakdown, either. It's holding above 557-ish support, below 558.60-559-ish resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:12:18 AM
TASR $57.66 +5.2% ... updated bar chart at this Link and trade management thoughts if holding 2 or more options.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  10:05:51 AM
The top of the new and highest descending trendline off Friday's high on the OEX is now at about 559.10. That's presumably the top of the bull flag, and a breakout there would presumably be a breakout above a bull flag. Hasn't happened yet, but those who want to enter a bullish play on a bull flag breakout should be watching that level, but should also be ready to jump right back out if the OEX should stutter and turn around immediately after that breakout. I'm nervous in today's probable low-volume environment and also due to other factors that show markets to be overbought.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:04:14 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  9:58:23 AM
Volume is declining on this drop, and until it stops or until 37.80-.82 is broken, there will remain the possibility that this morning's grind lower off the high is a bull flag. The session lows that were printing as I typed did not change that, but a break of 37.80-.82 should.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:57:02 AM
Taser (TASR) $58.07 +5.93% ... QUR-LK bid $8.30.

Since we got gapped higher on, I'm more willing to just trail with a stop as I've only got one call and couldn't "round to full" where I wanted to.

Momentum bulls would like to see a TASR close above $59.40, put a bear's risk assessment higher to $63-$64.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:55:39 AM
Okay, we have OEX quotes back now. The OEX is above the 557-ish resistance, but whether it gapped up there or climbed up there, I'm not sure. So far, the OEX remains within the channel (555.40-558.52, currently) that has contained its movements since midday Friday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:54:20 AM
Linda ... I've got CBOE feed now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:53:01 AM
Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $89.92 +4.42% Link ... big bounce from bullish support trend again. Looks 100-ish doesn't it?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:52:11 AM
I'm watching the CBOE scroll (www.cboe.com) but I'm not finding any news about what's going on with the feed just yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:50:50 AM
Thanks, Jeff, for the information in your 9:46 post. I verified the lack of feed through two different sources, but still wasn't sure if it was just a problem with my particular charting resources.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:50:28 AM
TASR Intl. (TASR) $58.05 +5.95% .... bugger's high has been $59.27. 10-cents shy of our 50% retracement of $59.37 from that BLUE fitted retracement. Also close to the bullish vertical count of $60.

Willing to see just how far any further short squeeze action will take us.

With no option quotes from the CBOE, I'm thinking a break even stop is right around TASR $55.00.

I would think further short squeeze action would come above $59.37, with upside potential to the next level higher of $64.15 and prior all-time high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:48:36 AM
Scanning charts for some of the tech-related indices, I see that the NWX, the networking index, is rebounding this morning, erasing yesterday's post-CSCO losses. I can't get charts for the GHA, the Hardware Index. The SOX rises, too, retesting the broken support of the 100-ema, with that average at 409.60, near an important Fib level, as Marc E. pointed out on the Futures side yesterday. None (that I can view) has broken out of important formations or above important resistance yet, but all are testing and trying to rise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:46:04 AM
Linda.... I'm not getting anything from the CBOE either. I think there may be something wrong with their data feed.

This includes options, and all indices SPX, OEX, RUT.X, GSO.X, INX.X, BIX.X, IUX.X, RLX.X, OIX.X.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:42:30 AM
There's a possibility of a double-headed inverse H&S on the SOX's five-minute chart. If this is a valid formation, the SOX is likely to pull back into a right shoulder, perhaps to the 406 region before attempting a further rise. Remember that while we once could count on these formations to confirm as soon as the right shoulder was rounding, we can no longer do that. They're often rejected, or sometimes prices just run through the neckline without ever forming a right shoulder. We have to wait and see, but they're still useful to watch to gauge strength or weakness.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:39:12 AM
I'm still not getting any feed on the OEX, checking two sources.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  9:39:08 AM
37.88 remains the low of the day. The 30 minute channel is flat but has yet to turn up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:37:12 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $82.68 +1.54% ... did trade as high as $84.00 at the open.

CEO saying he doesn't know when a U.S. court will rule on its patent infringement case with NTP, but there have been no recent developments.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  9:34:57 AM
QQQ testing 37.88 now and finding first support as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:33:38 AM
Bullish swing trade raise stop alert .... Raise the stop in the TASR Dec. $55 Call (QUR-LK) to break-even.

TASR $58.44 +6.42% here

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:32:37 AM
I unfortunately am not getting updated candles on the OEX charts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:30:25 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $58.11 +5.9% at the open.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/11/20,  9:23:12 AM
Jonathan one thing I miss living in the US is the poppies on Remembrance Day. When I lived in Canada, I would always wear a red poppy on Remembrance Day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  9:23:02 AM
The current pop for QQQ has the price just below descending 30 min channel resistance at 37.96, with 60 min channel resistance above at 38.05. The 30 min cycle is still in its whippy, weak decline, and if bulls can hold above 37.88 for longer than 10 minutes past the cash open, we should see the channels turn up.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:08:31 AM
Futures are up this morning, although off their overnight highs. Let's see where the OEX opens, but this may suggest that the OEX will dispense with the test of 556.50-557 resistance rather early in the session. We'll need to see how that test progresses, if it occurs, to make decisions about likely action.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/11/20,  8:14:53 AM
Equities are back up, ES 1168, NQ 1529.5, YM 10431 and QQQ +.16 to 37.96. Gold is down .70 to 433.80, silver flat at 7.42 and Nymex crdue down .70 to 48.15. Ten year notes are up .06 to 112.078.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Today is Veteran's Day in the US and Remembrance Day here in Canada. Our soldiers have fought side by side through most of their respective conflicts, and I join Linda in giving thanks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  7:02:11 AM
Good morning. Thanks again to all our veterans for their service to our country.

Both Japan and Germany's governments reported disappointing economic data in the overnight session, with Japan's number sending the Nikkei more than 200 points off its high of the day. Performance was mixed in the Asian bourses, but all European bourses trade in positive territory despite that disappointment in Germany. Our futures drifted sideways to down, but then shot up when European markets opened and then recovered after Germany's disappointment. As of 6:26 EST, gold was down $1.30 and crude, down $0.58. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened in positive territory, gapping above a descending trendline that had been building for several days. The weakening yen helped exporters during early trading, and Toyota and Sony were among the exporters gaining. NTT lost in early trading, however, after yesterday's trimming of its annual forecasts.

However, the entire tenor of trading was to change in the afternoon, after the release of worse-than-expected number for September's core private-sector machinery orders. Those orders fell 1.9% against expectations of a rise of 0.9%. Economists consider this number a preview of corporate capital spending. The Nikkei plunged through the flat-line level and plummeted more than 200 points off its high of the day. It closed down 148.04 points or 1.35%, at 10,846.92.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, with many semiconductors weak as they opened. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.24%. South Korea's central bank made a surprise decision to cut rates, and the Kospi managed a flat close, up 0.08%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.57%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.35%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.54%.

Currently, European bourses all trade in positive territory, however, despite disappointing economic and earnings news out of Germany. Germany's Q3 GDP showed a 0.1% rise, falling below expectations for a 0.3% rise. Capital spending did increase, but so did inventories. Exports fell. Siemens disappointed, reporting rising sales but slowing net profit and a loss in its transportation system division. Despite an earnings report that was greeted enthusiastically by at least one analyst, German chemicals group BASF declined after its earnings report. Airline Lufthansa also declined after its earnings report. News in the telecommunications industry was more cheering, however, with Deutsche Telekom and BT stronger after their earnings reports and with France Telecom gaining, too.

As of 6:26 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 34.10 points or 0.72%, to trade at 4,768.60. The CAC 40 had gained 35.25 points or 0.93%, to trade at 3,820.16. The DAX had gained 36.34 points or 0.89%, to trade at 4,125.47.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  12:02:00 AM
Yasser Arafat ... dead at age 75.

e-mini S&P (es04z) 1,164.75 (unch)

Dec. Crude (cl04z) down 23 cents at $48.83.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  10:33:36 PM
Semiconductor Bullish % (BPSEMI) rose 0.63% on Wednesday to 33.75%. Not quite 34% needed to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/10/20,  9:23:18 PM
The OEX ended the day Wednesday with a potential double-bottom on the five-minute chart. However, that potential double-bottom formation was set up after the OEX fell through Wednesday's rising support line and rose to retest it, then fell back. Ambiguous. The OEX had moved down toward potential Keltner and historical support near 554.70-555, the bottom support of what could be a bull flag. That's ambiguous, too.

Strictly speaking, the bottom support of the potential bull flag is probably near 555.40, the top of the gap from Friday morning, but that already mentioned Keltner support lies just below. If the OEX should gap below that mid-channel support tomorrow morning, say to 554.50 or so, bears might venture a play with plans to protect profit in the 550 zone. If the OEX should open near today's close and creep down toward 554.70-555, we can probably expect at least a tepid bounce and a retest of broken support. We would need to see how the OEX acts on a retest of 555.40-556.90. Because I've been expecting a test of 552-554 at least, let's see how tomorrow looks before we discuss bullish positions, but if market conditions are favorable, those might be initiated cautiously on bounces from 555.40, back up through 556.00. Profit-protecting plans would need to be in place for a test of the top of the potential bull flag, however, at about 558.80 currently, in case the OEX turns down through that range again. That doesn't give much possibility for upside before a strong resistance test occurs, so I'd like to see how the markets look before suggesting that. A breakout above that level would constitute an upside break above the potential bull flag.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:02:50 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/10/20,  9:01:47 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/10/20,  8:17:54 PM
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