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  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:06:54 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:18:55 PM
Closing Market Watch with 5-day% and 20-day% net change revealed. Link

The iShares Russell 2000 Value (AMEX:IWN) 184.85 +0.97% made up a lot of ground today. I'm monitoring relative strength vs. the RUT.X on a day-to-day basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  7:48:30 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  5:45:59 PM
Sonic (SONC) $29.49 -1.17% Link .... guides high end of range. Previously forecasted EPS of $0.24-$0.25. Said higher-than-expected sales in September/October would offset higher food prices, particularly tomatoes.

Mmmmmm.... makes me hungry for a chicken/tomato/mayo sandwich.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:57:32 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $83.00 -1.19% ... just seeing Jim's post from earlier (he didn't give price, but looks like $81.21), but the only news I could find was weakness might have come from Morgan Stanley making comments on U.S. Wireless carrier inventory, with spotlight on T-Mobile, which has been a source of sales strength for RIMM's new Blackberry handsets.

RIMM traded a session low of $80.40, but buyers seemed aggressive at DAILY S2 $80.82 on a brief 5-minute spike to that level. Looked like a computer triggered with instruction to buy it right back up to DAILY S1 $82.41, but no more than DAILY Pivot ($83.29) doesn't it?

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/12/20,  4:25:36 PM
Dateline CNN A California jury finds Scott Peterson guilty of the slaying of his wife, Laci, and their unborn child.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:15:31 PM
Sell Program Premium .... at the 04:15 close

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:13:36 PM
Sell Program Premium .... DIA $105.68, SPY $118.82, QQQ $38.66

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:11:42 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

This week's CLOSED trade blotter at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:05:37 PM
Sell Program Premium .... DIA $105.73, SPY $118.86, QQQ $38.62

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  4:00:03 PM
Congratulations to all longs today. Have a great weekend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  3:58:42 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.04 +1.78% ...

SMH-KZ are bid $0.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:51:44 PM
For the last hour, the OEX has been finding support at the midline of its ascending regression channel instead of retreating all the way to the bottom.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  3:50:41 PM
We've seen Maxpain levels blown out several times this year- the rally here could even be option writers hedging by buying the underlying, which can feed on itself. At this point, I suspect that a straight up moonshot from here would surprise the greatest number of participants, myself included.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:39:08 PM
Watch for the possibility that the OEX bumps down to 564.50, rises again to 565.15 or so, and the rolls down from there. We've seen other such possible H&S's in the making be rejected today, but we've also seen the TRAN plummet through the neckline without ever bothering with a right shoulder.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:35:45 PM
The TRAN is close, but hasn't been able to top yesterday's high. It has topped 3,600, however. So far, today's candle is still an inside-day candle.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:31:56 PM
Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Got too cute today with my recommendation for a long OEX entry on a pullback to and bounce from 559-559.40 (see my 21:38 post), and the OEX pulled only to 560.26 before taking off again. I'd thought we'd needed that extra cushion, though, because although the breakout above the rectangular range had set an upside target of 563.40 (same post), I was worried about resistance 561.23 and again at 563. That prevented me from suggesting new bullish entries. I've been advising all day that bulls continue to raise their stops and otherwise guard profits, and suggested that aggressive bears try a new position at 563, but be prepared to jump out quickly if proven wrong. That was proven wrong, but I still advise that bulls continue to guard their profits. Don't let a profitable play become a losing one.

Now we come to the last few minutes of trading, with those of you in bullish positions having accumulated profits and those in bearish ones hurting a bit or a lot, depending on the level from which one entered. Bulls need to make decisions about holding over the weekend. If you're sitting on big profits and are in November options, I would absolutely take some or all of that profit off the table this afternoon or else hedge it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  3:24:46 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

NH ramp in last hour.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  3:21:17 PM
Gold futures close at highest level since July 1988
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- December gold closed at $438.30 an ounce in New York -- the highest closing futures level seen since July 1988. The contract logged a gain of $2.90 for the session and was up $4 for the week. Analysts attributed the rally to the fresh drop in the dollar as well as ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Other metals futures closed higher, with December silver up 1.9 percent, December palladium and January platinum each up more than 2 percent, and December copper up 1.6 percent.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  3:21:09 PM
QQQ is testing the previous top here, but Keltner resistance has advanced to 38.70 on the shallow pullback off the previous high. 7200-tick SMA support at 38.48 was never tested on the dip.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:20:36 PM
The OEX found support at the midline of its rising regression channel and charged right back up to the top again. It's pulling back slightly from its resistance. So far, the channel still holds. Resistance holds; so does support. Since it's a rising channel, that means the OEX rises. Bottom support is now at about 563.60, and bulls don't want to see that broken in such a well-defined channel.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  3:19:39 PM
GOOG -$10 off its highs for the day. Lockup fears starting to take hold.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  3:10:35 PM
Picture of an over extended market just begging to be whacked at strong resistance. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  3:09:06 PM
03:00 Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:08:21 PM
The midline of the OEX's ascending regression channel lies at 564.45, and the lower trendline is at about 563.50.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  3:07:20 PM
Rhe Russell has broken out to a new high the last couple days and is nearing hypothetical resistance at 622-625. Very overbought but traders are probably not anxious to sell. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  3:05:47 PM
What are the odds that the new KMRT will announce a split soon now that shares are over the $100 level? Its earnings report on Nov. 15th is a good spot to announce a stock split.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  3:02:05 PM
The market breakout has done wonders for our LEAP portfolio. The problem now is what new LEAPs to add at the current levels. Going to be slim pickings for the next couple months. We will probably be shifting to a put heavy focus in late December. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:58:56 PM
By the way, on the Futures side, Jim is recommending an ER exit even though the exit signal hasn't been given according to his system. For those of you in long options plays, I agree with his caution, as I'm particularly worried about the TRAN and the Russell 2000. I've been watching for potential CCI or RSI confirmation of a possible top being put in on the markets (not just overbought levels, but a trendline break, H&S ghost, or other such thing), and the TRAN (has confirmed) and Russell 2000 (threatening to confirm) each have H&S CCI ghosts on their charts. Of course, the Russell 2000 can still reject its CCI formation. As I've drawn it, it's either on the verge of confirming or approaching the confirmation level. Difficult to tell. I'm not seeing anything similar on the OEX yet, by the way.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:54:27 PM
The OEX is turning down from the top of its ascending regression channel. That channel is so well-defined now that at least we'll know when the OEX has broken through the support.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:53:55 PM
Thanks, Linda. I just hope readers put some of that money in their pockets! The option values have soared.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:52:30 PM
James, congratulations to you on the successful IBM, GS, GDW, EBAY, ITW and ITT plays.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  2:51:09 PM
RIMM getting whacked over last two minutes

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:50:10 PM
The OEX's ascending regression channel: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  2:50:09 PM
Here's the pullback, QQQ down 7 cents from the high a few minutes ago. These keltners work like magic when they work. 38.52 is immediate support, below which 38.47 is the next level.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:49:34 PM
SLB has pushed through resistance at $65.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:48:35 PM
OI call play IBM has surpassed our short-term target at $95.00. Traders may want to consider taking some money off the table now and re-entering on a pull back.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:47:29 PM
Exit alert! OI call play Goldman Sachs (GS) is within 28 cents of our $105 target. I'd strongly consider closing the play now!

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:46:04 PM
OI call play GDW is pushing through round-number resistance at $120.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:44:43 PM
Short-term traders may want to take some money off the table in FDX. Our suggested options are up significantly with the stock up more than five points from our entry point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  2:44:42 PM
The indices are advancing through upper Keltner resistance, a very rare occurrence. If we don't see a reversal here within the next few minutes, this could develop into a fullblown meltup.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:44:34 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.78 +0.98% ... busting a move from $32.45. They can't hold'm back. WEEKLY Pivot right here.

While my vendor for "Max Pain" is back up and running, they say they have NOT been able to verify their data feed's info.

However, they are posting a $32.50 ($2.50 increments) max pain for November.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  2:44:19 PM
WMT - CNBC is doing a promo about their WalMart special and it brought back some facts that astounded me when I watched it earlier in the week. WMT sells 590 million individual items PER DAY. Their supercenter stores in China attract between 75,000-80,000 shoppers EACH every day. They keep every register receipt in electronic form for two years for analysis purposes. They back test sales trends and product mix against the receipt database. Their computer system is so big only the Pentagon is larger. They have 1.4 million employees. If you have not watched this special I highly recommend it for the unique business processes they employ. It is amazing to see how they decide what to market, how to move it and how quickly they can react to winners, losers and shopping trends. Most WMT executives are expected to be at work by 6:AM and many get there by 4:30. On trips even the CEO and President share $49 Motel 6 rooms. Company policy.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:43:24 PM
Exit Alert! OI call play EBAY has hit our short-term target at $110.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:42:52 PM
Upper regression channel resistance is now at 565.44 for the OEX. Bulls, keep following the OEX higher with your stops. Those aggressive traders testing bearish plays at 563 should probably be out of those plays unless your account management style says otherwise.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:42:48 PM
Exit Alert! OI call play ITW is 30 cents away from our target at $96.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:42:17 PM
I take that back. Our exit target is $85.90.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:41:49 PM
Exit Alert! OI call play ITT is 13 cents away from our target at $86.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:40:15 PM
Psychological alert ... NYSE Comp. (NYA.X) 7,000.00 +0.71% ...

Making a move above its WEEKLY R1 here

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  2:39:24 PM
QQQ, ES, YM and NQ are now testing upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance. This is where the going should begin to get tough for the bulls. For QQQ, rising 7200 tick SMA support is up to 38.41, and any kind of downside would have to be confirmed with at least a break below that line.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:35:51 PM
The OEX tests the midline of its rising regression channel, established since yesterday morning. It hasn't been much above this midline, now at 564.35 since about the middle of the morning. It's pierced it a few times, but then quickly moved back. A move above that midline, sustained, is a change in tenor, and if you're not out of your testing bearish OEX play, this would be a good place to do it if the OEX isn't quickly pushed back.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  2:31:33 PM
TNX has come up a bit off the session lows, while gold and euros remain firm with the USD Index at the session lows. QQQ is heading for its combined 30 and 60 resistance at 38.61. Until bond yields and the dollar turn back up, equities should continue to be bullish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:29:11 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUShb 697.65 +3.72% ... ringing up a new 52-week and all-time high here.

The upper end of my bullish regression channel is at 705.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:26:58 PM
Stephen, I completely agree with you that stocks are overbought here. (see his 14:07 post) Actually, a lot of stocks are very overbought here. But I disagree that the major indices are going to see a 15% correction. That would send the NASDAQ from 2070 to 1760 and the Industrials from 10,495 to 8920. The markets need a pullback but there are a lot of investors looking for the next dip to use as their entry point to jump into this fourth-quarter, end-of-year rally.

I would be really surprised if the next pull pack broke 2000-1970 on the NASDAQ and 10,200 on the Dow. At 10,200 we have a 38.2% retracement of the current rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:26:39 PM
Many of the writers are discussing the need for the markets to pull back. I agree. The rise has been meteoric on the OEX. It's been straight up without a single significant correction until now. However, I have to warn that we were thinking the same thing early in January, after the OEX had just completed a meteoric rise from about 522 (sound familiar?) without a single significant correction. It was pulling back, slightly, in the 555.40-563 zone (sound familiar?) and RSI and CCI were signaling that it was dangerously overbought. However, it shot up to a new year's high. The OEX can do just the same this year. Although the Russell 2000 and TRAN have completed or are about to complete CCI ghosts that signal that they may be ready to topple or at least consolidate sideways, daily RSI on the OEX shoots straight up still. I still feel okay about suggesting that aggressive bears who like to hit likely resistance with a testing play consider 563 a likely spot, but I reiterate my caution that they jump out quickly at an account appropriate level if the OEX zooms up instead. Don't want to ride this thing up another 12 points waiting for RSI and CCI to give a reversal signal. The trend is, obviously, still up.

I don't think I'd be holding any long positions over the weekend, though, without hedging them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:22:51 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:21:55 PM
CDWC is up 2.99% as bulls produce a follow through on yesterday's breakout over the simple 200-dma. Momentum traders may want to consider entries here. Patient traders can look for a dip.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:20:01 PM
Grainger W W (GWW) is challenging resistance at $60.00 and looks ready to breakout soon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:16:06 PM
The OEX gets slapped back again. Those who might have tested a bearish position when the OEX hit 563 are doing okay, but so are those who were long from yesterday, holding overnight, brave souls as they must have been. Both bulls and bears have reason to be worried here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:12:57 PM
The OEX is getting slapped back each time it tries to climb, but still tries to climb. I still don't think the outcome is decided, but shorts are going to get worried soon if it keeps climbing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:12:35 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Stephen Tetreault   11/12/20,  2:07:30 PM
Hello Folks: I find myself once again in the position of issuing a MAJOR WARNING, and please consider heeding this alert; I will write more about it later this weekend.

In a nut shell I believe we are hours to a few days away from a blow-off topping event, that could send the indexes down 15-25% from current levels very quickly, I reviewed quite a few charts this morning in the high-beta names and the transports along with the major indexes, and I’m seeing way to many bearish divergences throughout.

What I believe we have witnessed is a brief rotation out of Energy names (a sector I’m getting bullish on to trade) and bonds, as foreigners (oil-heads) cashed in on their double play, reaping the riches of crude, and now they are taking profits out of bonds. The divergences away from the 50/200smas are too wide and have come to quick on very light volume.

I have reviewed over 250 charts on a weekly, daily and 180/120/60 minute time frames and found over 90% are entering extreme-overbought conditions. When I look at the VIX/VXO/VXN/QQV I find way too much complacency as well, and this is also flashing a red-flag. I also have never saw so much bullish hype and pumping on the airwaves and in various publications since the euphoria I saw in late 1999, early 2000; and I keep hearing wild CRAP forecasts of upside from today’s levels of 15-20% into the end-of-the year; this is very disturbing as well, and when coupled with the rise in the bullish%indexes this paints a very scary posture as not all can be right...and the herd usually gets slaughtered.

We could be in for a very-volatile options expiration week, (next-week) and I’m as skittish as a long tail cat in a room full of geriatric folks in rocking chairs; I find very little value in this market at these nose bleed levels especially in the speculative small/mid cap arena, and once again I am looking at beta stocks with sky-high P/E’s and questionable guidance.

I have also been witnessing some strange/baseless upgrades to nose bleed targets/valuations. And we all now that many firms tend to issue such baseless upgrades at the tops. Please protect your LONGS, tighten your stops, and remember that cash is King, a decision to book profits and sit on the sidelines is a prudent decision often, especially if you do not SHORT. Please protect your capital. The risk reward in my opinion is now firmly planted on the downside; as I believe there is very little upside opportunity left. May All your Trades Be Great Ones

Steve

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:05:36 PM
Careful, bulls. Although it was a little late and produced by an event (FOMC minutes), that push higher was immediately reversed on the OEX.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  2:01:52 PM
This bounce brought to you by the FOMC minutes for September: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  2:01:46 PM
That's a good point from Jim re: MSFT. I'd go a step further and note that, if the past few weeks are any indication, puts do not wind up in the money, period. :)

New session highs breaking as I type, euros to a new high for the day at 1.2981.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:59:40 PM
The OEX tips slowly over, now slightly beneath the ascending regression channel in which it's been traveling for more than a day. This isn't a stop-run as much as a stop-drip. We don't know the outcome yet. There's been no burst of buying, but no big drop, either. I hesitate to mention this, but Keltner resistance is again firming up above the OEX.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:58:27 PM
Sunoco (SUN) is another oil-related stock that is looking bullish as the MACD nears a new buy signal and the share price begins testing the current short-term trend of lower highs. The P&F chart points to a $117 target.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  1:53:05 PM
MSFT - A word of caution for those holding Microsoft options. Because Microsoft goes ex-dividend after the close today MSFT will open -$3 lower on Monday. All option strikes will be adjusted down by -$3. A $30 put will become a $27 put. Don't expect that your $30 put will automatically be in the money by $3 on Monday. It does not happen that way.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:51:52 PM
I blinked and QQQ dropped 4 cents, which is a very large move by the last 2 hours' standards... 7200-tick SMA support is just below at 38.37, below which the 30 min channel upphase should stall out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:46:10 PM
The TRAN rolled down without ever bouncing up toward 3611. I was thinking that it might form a small H&S on its 5-minute chart, but instead it's falling without ever forming a right shoulder. The downside target would be just above 3600, so would constitute a test of 3600. The TRAN hasn't made it there, though, and is now at 3606.24, and is trying to rise from Keltner support. The TRAN's swings have been kind of wild today, even for the TRAN.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:38:26 PM
BDX is breaking out to new all-time highs over resistance at $54.00-54.10. The recent rally has helped produce a new P&F buy signal pointing to a $71 target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:34:00 PM
Jane nailed it on the head this morning when she said that the TRIN hadn't been useful this week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:29:29 PM
The TRAN drives a winding road up toward the opening level and yesterday's high, but its progress has been laborious so far. It has, however, retraced more than 50% of this morning's steep decline. It's threatening to tip over again, but before it does--if it does--I wouldn't be surprised to see it to bounce up one more time, perhaps toward 3611 or so. It's at 3608.80 as I type, and has support from a rising trendline today at 3600. It has other support there, too, of course.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:26:06 PM
The wavelet cycle sell signal is still just sitting there. Volume has slowed enough to stall my intraday oscillators.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:24:47 PM
Linda, I don't think it's possible to overestimate what you describe. Livermore was writing about it nearly a century ago. I read that Sir Isaac Newton lost a fortune on the South Seas Company. If he could get faked out, then the deviousness of market participants truly knows no bounds.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  1:23:25 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:22:02 PM
We've known all along that big-money people can move the markets by placing big orders to see how the markets react, by conducting a stop-running push. When I was recently reading about trading in the pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, though, I was surprised to learn of another tactic that's used. Sometimes they don't really commit their money. They signal a big order to their clerks, but they give a secret signal that says "this is a fake order" or "do the opposite of what I just signaled you." I don't know why I was so astounded, I guess because I wouldn't have thought of doing something underhanded myself, but they have the ability to test the waters without even committing their money or positions.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  1:20:17 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:18:39 PM
The market feels especially inscrutable today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:18:30 PM
On the seven-minute Keltner chart, OEX support is converging just under the OEX, near the bottom of its rising channel, established since yesterday morning. Those converging lines look ready to support the OEX if it tries to push up toward the top of the channel. However, I'm wondering if a stop-running push will pierce through that support and see if there's immediate buying before an attempt is made to move the OEX higher. Or, I wonder if the push will send the OEX higher to see if it's hit with immediate selling. I'm never good at guessing which it would be, but if I were testing the waters, I'd want to test support. You have about a 50-50 chance of that being what happens, because it's just a guess. Remember to watch the reaction as well as the direction of a push.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  1:11:43 PM
eMerge (EMRG) $1.50 +17.4% ... on the move after Assoc. Press reporting that U.S. Dept. of Agriculture set to begin voluntary pilot program of tracking and identifying cattle. Should Dept. of Ag. require cattle producers to be able to track animals within 48 of potential disease identification, stock could benefit.

Traded $3.50-ish during last "mad cow" scare.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:11:15 PM
Volume has been trailing off for the past hour and is currently running very low for QQQ. The short cycle oscillators are in suspended animation given the lower number of ticks driving my chart, with a wavelet cycle downphase targeting 38.36 waiting to start for the past 15 minutes. Gold is back up to 439.10 and TNX is down 6.8 bps or 1.6%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:09:17 PM
Although the OEX is still climbing, still in breakout mode on its 7-minute chart, it's also still showing bearish divergence with respect to the way it travels through its ascending regression channel. First, it stayed mostly in the top half of that channel. Then it oscillated from top to bottom, touching the top trendline on the swing high. Then it didn't quite make it up to the top trendline. Then it just barely made it past the midline. Now it's mostly traveling through the lower half of its channel, sometimes piercing bottom support on the downswings. It can still just zoom up, and it will if shorts get scared enough this afternoon, but technical analysis says that the rally is tiring. Shorts don't care that technical analysis says that it's time for a sideways consolidation or pullback. Not if they're way underwater and the thing keeps climbing, despite what TA says. At some point this afternoon, they're likely to decide to cover if a downswing doesn't begin.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:56:37 PM
Yesterday afternoon, I would have said--in fact, did say--that OEX 563 might be a good place for those aggressive traders who just like to hit a particular level with a short (or long, if we were talking about hitting with a long position at some support level) position without waiting for confirmation to do just that. Those traders would have to know that downside might be limited, perhaps only to 559.40-560 before there was a bounce attempt, and they'd have to be willing and have the ability to jump right back out again if proven wrong. I'm feeling more and more as I watch today's action that this region might be a good one to try a short, but I see zero confirmation of that as yet and I'm worrying about a Friday-afternoon push up to a new high. This kind of action is prime for a bout of short-covering ahead of the weekend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:52:04 PM
Swing trade call option alert .... let's take a 1/2 bullish position in Jupitermedia (JUPM) ... and the May $20 calls (EUU-ED) at the offer of $3.30.

Taking 2 (two) to start. Target the current bullish vertical count of $29.

JUPM $18.99 +3.09% Link here. It's in Dorsey's "Internet" sector bullish %.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  12:47:24 PM
Gold is retreating from its 439.50 high, with HUI up 1.79% here at 241.43. TNX is down 1.6%, euros up .54%. Until we see the TNX rising and gold descending, the intermarket relationships should continue to support the rally in equities as well. Going solely by the charts, the outlook for QQQ is bullish until 38.18-.20 as been broken at minimum.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  12:46:37 PM
ZBRA denying rumors of any change in status from any customer. The stock was killed this morning and rebounding now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:44:14 PM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 202.38 +1.45% .... add this sector/index to your list of 52-week highs here.

Sector bullish % (BPSEMI) from Dorsey still "bull confirmed" at very low level of bullish risk and 39.75%. Tends to get too high risk at 64%-68%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:42:34 PM
OEX bulls should keep following the OEX higher with their stops. The OEX has now pulled safely above the 561.23 level that's the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market rally, but it's now at the top of the 563 S/R range from past years. I know I remember that 563 number, having typed it and noted it over and over, but it's there on the charts, too. The OEX is in breakout mode on the seven-minute Keltner channels, and trying to achieve breakout status on the 15-minute ones. We unfortunately never saw the pullback I wanted to see for new bullish entries.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  12:40:11 PM
30 min channel resistance, still rising, is up to 38.60 for QQQ. 60 min channel resistance is just below at 38.56.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:37:43 PM
60-minute interval reverse/head shoulers .... Hello Jeff, Am I correct in saying that Mot, Mrvl and Sndk have completed reverse H&S ? If so what do you calculate there upside targets?

I believe the trader's question is when he is looking at 60-minute intervals.

I'm not a HUGE believer of intra-day patterns like these, but we have traded with success on the 60-minute interval. I like daily or weekly intervals like we saw in IBM and currently see in the SPX.x.

I just take a retracement, attach 0% to the "head" then fit your 50% at the neckline, where the resulting 100% gives you your objective.

MOT $17.95 +2.10% ... objective $19.00

MRVL $30.58 +7.41% ... objective $33.00

SNDK $21.66 +2.55% ... objective $23.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:29:18 PM
So much for Keltner resistance. The OEX climbed above it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:27:55 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  12:19:17 PM
QQQ bulls need to see the previous high taken out in order to continue this strong ongoing intraday upphase. A lower high below 38.50 will suggest a retest of 7200-tick support (now up to 38.34), below which that 38.18-.20 level comes into view. There's a bearish divergence on the wavelet and short cycle oscillators here, but it means nothing until the 38.34 level is cracked.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:18:50 PM
The OEX is getting pushed sideways into the support of its rising regression channel. One or the other is going to give--Keltner resistance or that support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:16:07 PM
iShare Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) $63.88 +0.21% .... seasonal #3 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:15:24 PM
Famous last words? After my last post, the OEX moved up to challenge that Keltner resistance that I said looked stronger than support. It's testing it now, with resistance up to 562.48. We're about to see if it really is stronger, aren't we? The top of the OEX's ascending regression channel is now at about 563.70, but the OEX has been showing bearish divergence in the way it approaches that channel, too. Each approach to the top has stopped further and further away from the top. That usually precedes a drop through the channel's support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:08:14 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:07:06 PM
The OEX appears to be coiling into a triangle at the top of its range, with nearby Keltner resistance looking stronger than nearby support. From that perspective, it looks easier for the OEX to break to the downside than to the upside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:04:01 PM
Hartford Financial (HIG) $62.00 -3.53% Link ... lower after company said it fired two employees after concluding they were not cooperating with an investigation by the New York attorney general's office.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/12/20,  11:57:35 AM
Linda (11:53 post) I totally agree a rising bond market and falling dollar are not good for stocks yet they are hanging in there, which is truly amazing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:56:09 AM
The day is far from over, but the TRAN is currently printing an inside-day candle. Being that the CCI has confirmed a H&S ghost, my bet would be that the inside day, if it continues into the close today, would be resolved to the downside. It's almost sacrilegious to link the words "TRAN" and "downside" in a single sentence lately, but that's my guess.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:55:46 AM
QQQ continues to hold above 7200-tick SMA support of 38.32. The short cycle oscillators are suggesting a rollover forming, so far evident in a trend of lower wavelet highs. Below 38.32, there should be another test of 38.18-.20 if the short cycle oscillators kick off their new downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:53:33 AM
Jane just mentioned on the Futures side that ZB had been in an almost straight line up, and Jonathan mentioned that euros were seeing a session high, too. The dollar has been in freefall against the yen all day, too. None of that has lately been good for equities.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  11:52:27 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

The one (1) TASR Dec. $55 call (QUR-LK) was stopped out ($1.60, or $160.00) in the opening minutes of trade when TASR $58.82 +1.55% hit my profiled $55.75 stop.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:47:44 AM
Session high for euros here, along with ten year bonds. Gold is at 439 after hitting 439.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:46:31 AM
QQQ is back below 38.40 and coming in for a test of 38.32, which is the current level of the rising 7200-tick SMA. A break below that is the first step toward flattening the rising 30 min cycle channel. 38.18-.20 is key support, currently just above rising 30 and 60 min channel support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:39:04 AM
The OEX inches up and inches down. Seven-minute MACD flattens.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:32:25 AM
Jim, I believe it was the Dell dude pictured in Mark's earlier photo, but could be mistaken...

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/12/20,  11:31:55 AM
Great link Jim! Greenfield Gerbil just got added to my "Favorites" list

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:30:29 AM
The TRAN appears to be coiling into a symmetrical triangle with its apex at 3600.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  11:27:56 AM
James, Stuart was eventually blamed for the death of Steve, the Dell dude. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:23:19 AM
30 min delayed USD Index refreshable chart at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:22:37 AM
Just hit a new session high at 438.80, I believe at a new 16 year high. Ten year treasuries are also at session high, TNX -6.2 bps at 4.192%, a 1.46% drop for the day. I believe that the combination of a falling dollar with rising bonds (falling TNX) is bullish for equities, as it was during the 2003 rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:19:02 AM
This OEX bounce is coming from just above 561, just above the top of the last consolidation band on the intraday charts. While that might have made a good new bullish entry, I'm worried that upside might be limited.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:17:28 AM
Back from a reboot. The persistence above 38.40 has turned the 30 minute cycle channel back up, with resistance now at 38.55, 2 cents above the 60 min channel top. The short cycle oscillators have turned back up as well. 38.38-.40 QQQ is new support, above which we have 38.18-.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:12:33 AM
The OEX bounced from just above the bottom of its ascending regression channel, established yesterday. It's showing bearish divergence with each new high.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  11:07:36 AM
Copper prices are inching higher again today up 0.9% to $1.385 a pound. Meanwhile Phelps Dodge (PD) is up 3.14% to $97.21 and challenging its early October highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:06:16 AM
Remember the CCI "ghost" I mentioned as a possibility on the Russell 2000, cautioning that the day was far from finished and the seeming confirmation could still be refuted? Here's one on the TRAN, and it has been confirmed, with the neckline retested. Link Is the TRAN, at least, topping out?

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  11:05:48 AM
The DFI defense index is down just over 1 point to 866. If it closes in the red it will be the first loss in eight days.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  11:04:51 AM
Dow-component ExxonMobile (XOM) is pushing through the $50.00 mark again but needs to breakout over the current double-top at $50.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  11:04:39 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  11:04:11 AM
Both the OIX oil index and OSX oil services index nearing new buy signals in their MACD indicators.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  11:03:21 AM
The DRG drug index is sinking (slowly) under a new two-week trend of lower highs. Its technical oscillators are also turning bearihs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:02:48 AM
The TRAN turned back from its test of 3600.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  11:02:39 AM
The BTK biotech index is failing at the 540 resistance level for the second (almost third) time since September. The MACD is starting to falter.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:51:15 AM
James.... OK, looks like you're winning this one. For now. I've got an alert set at $41.05.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:49:38 AM
The bottom of the OEX's ascending regression channel is now at about 560, with Keltner support just above and just below that.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:48:20 AM
Jeff, MXIM is a put.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:47:39 AM
Awesome, Jim. I'm transported.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:45:52 AM
LOL!

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  10:43:38 AM
Ameritrade Let's lite this candle commercial from 2000: Link

Broadband readers only!!

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/12/20,  10:42:57 AM
Jonathan I hear Stewart has changed his appearance and moved to a place where the weed is cheaper... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:42:54 AM
TRAN still struggling with 3600, at 3600.17 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:38:54 AM
The OEX is in breakout mode now on the seven-minute Keltner chart, headed up toward the 562.65 level that marks the top of its ascending regression channel from yesterday. It never dropped back below 560 this morning and instead rejected the H&S forming on its three-minute chart. It certainly never dropped back to the 559.40-ish level that I had favored for a pullback-and-bounce entry.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:37:21 AM
The 30 min channel for QQQ has not yet turned up, but it will shortly if price doesn't get back below 38.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:37:08 AM
James ... you call or put in MXIM $41.82 -1.48% Link?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:36:45 AM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.55 +0.27% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:35:17 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) stop hunting at the open now has TASR $59.45 +2.62% rocketing higher. :(

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:34:31 AM
Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 (MSH.X) 479.93 +0.51% ... breaking above downward trend from its January highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:34:08 AM
The OEX rejected that potential H&S. It's trying to find the strength to push up toward the top of its regression channel, finding support now at the midline and above the breakout level on the three-minute Keltner chart. It's having difficulty maintaining levels above Kelner resistance on other time-interval charts, though, so it's not clear that it's going to be able to make that push. If it does, the top of that regression channel is now at about 562.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:33:12 AM
Ameritrad's (AMTD) figures look strong James .... I've got NYSE volume up 4% and NASDAQ volume up 4% from October's 18% and 15% gain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:30:37 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:30:33 AM
The TRAN tests 3600, at 3599.77 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:29:50 AM
I wonder whatever became of Stewart the Photocopy Boy? (re James' 10:24)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:28:52 AM
In my 21:38 post last night, I mentioned that I was concerned about RSI and CCI levels on the OEX, but I also posted a chart that showed that it wasn't the RSI move back through 70 that signaled that a top had been put in at least once this last 52 weeks. Rather, it was the confirmation of an RSI H&S in that instance. I mentioned that I was looking for similar signs. While I haven't seen them yet on the OEX, here's a possible one on the Russell 2000. Link (By the way, Jane wrote an article on CCI "ghosts," one that can be found by searching the archives.)

One caution, though: The day is far from over, and as is true of a leading indicator like the RSI or CCI, CCI can repaint itself by the end of the day. What looks like an about-to-occur confirmation now can look completely different at 4:00 this afternoon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:28:33 AM
This bounce has yet to turn up the short cycle oscillators, with the downphase currently stalled. A retest of the high would fit with a 30 minute cycle top, but only if the last high at 38.41 isn't exceeded by more than a few cents and for longer than a couple of minutes. That makes this do or doodoo time for 30 minute cycle bears here on QQQ.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:24:24 AM
"Light this candle" Ameritrade (AMTD) is reporting that November trading is currently outpacing October's numbers by 20%.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:21:50 AM
Semiconductor stock AMD is up 4.4% and hitting new two-year highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:21:07 AM
The TRAN forms an inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline this morning. The upside target isn't large, but would take the TRAN up for a retest of 3600. It's at 3592.43 now, moving quickly since confirming the inverse H&S. Watch the TRAN, and other markets, as the TRAN tests 3600.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:18:01 AM
When I turn to the OEX's three-minute chart, I think it's already formed its H&S, and I don't any longer expect it to bounce from 560-560.15 up to form a right shoulder. Instead, if it falls below about 560.25, I would expect it to head straight down to test 559.40-559.75. If it rejects the H&S formation by moving back to a new high, then bulls should still have profit-protecting plans in place.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:17:32 AM
You're right James. Very thinly traded, but a company that was/is well positioned for a strong economic cycle in the U.S.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:15:46 AM
DELL is hitting new four-year highs at $39 today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:15:08 AM
VIX.X 13.28 +1.84% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.46, 12.73, Piv = 12.90, 13.17, 13.34.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:14:45 AM
Jeff mentioned the rally (+94%) in BOOM this morning. I read something about the super small 2.2 million share float. The stock only trades an average volume of 5,500 shares a day. Today BOOM has traded more than 700,000 shares.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:12:48 AM
The Fed has replaced 12.5B in expiring repos with 8.5B in 4-day repos for a net drain of 4B today.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:11:56 AM
Agilent Tech (A) is down 11.8% to $22.57 after reporting earnings yesterday where the company missed estimates by a penny. BAC downgraded Agilent to a "sell". JPM cut A to a "neutral".

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:10:44 AM
What I'm looking for on the OEX is a possible pullback toward 560-560.15, the bottom of the rising regression channel the OEX established yesterday, and then a possible bounce, perhaps back up toward 560.60 or so--a sort of H&S-ish formation. Watch for a possible plunge straight through 560, though, without ever bouncing. If the move down toward 560 is gradual, I'd be more likely to expect the bounce, but if there's a steep plunge right through that, I'd look for that plunge to carry the OEX fairly quickly toward 559-559.40. Although the TRAN is trying to bounce now, we've got its more-than-40-point plunge as an example of what can happen.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:10:19 AM
QQQ bottomed on the drop at 38.17, close enough to constitute a successful test of the 38.18-.20 zone. The bounce occurred quickly enough to prevent the new 30 minute cycle downphase from launching, but the channel has lost its upphase and is currently sliding sideways in overbought territory.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:10:16 AM
Nortel Networks (NT) is down another 7.2% to $3.12. These are new 5 1/2 month lows and shares are nearing the May low near $3.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:09:13 AM
CNBC saying Schwab reports a 16% increase in trading last month.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:05:50 AM
Schlumberger (SLB) is up another 1% and nearing round-number resistance at $65.00 and it simple 50-dma. Our trigger to go long is at $65.05. The MACD produced a new buy signal yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:04:38 AM
The OEX sits just underneath the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline and today's high. It looks as if it's trying to make another break higher, but be careful of a break below 560 if in bullish positions.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  10:03:36 AM
Our MXIM put has fallen to a new relative low, down 1.7% this morning.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/12/20,  10:00:50 AM
As I've presented in the past in that Murphy Oil was a forward indicator as to what the $WTIC was going to do. And I have also made it known that as oil goes (at least in the past several months) so goes the market. If...oil in this case $WTIC at the $47 level found support and will resume its climb upward then will that cause a correction on the Dow? Could we also be looking for a lower VIX reading?Then again as Linda brought up the fact that the US Dollar has a factor in this and so do interest rates. The major markets have had a breakout of trend, how sustainable this breakout rally is remains to be seen. Link

Looking at the VIX volatility is at multi year lows because the market has stability in that it wanted an election over with. In this case the market is favorable towards Bush. It has lower oil prices and possible position geopolitical outcomes ahead in Iraq and with Palestine now. The fact that lower volatility makes puts cheap affords one to hedge their long positions in case they're wrong and to protect to the downside. This is why I use the Profunds to hedge my stock portfolio. One can also use covered calls, as more conservative risk management play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:00:44 AM
MMM $82.00 +0.14% .... little pop above its 200-day SMA to $82.40, back to test here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  10:00:05 AM
Alert - Business Inventories = +0.1% ,(est +0.5%, last +0.7%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:53:44 AM
The TRAN is still falling, now testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that it has held above since November 2.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:53:32 AM
QQQ now testing 38.18-.20 support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:53:21 AM
TASR $57.08 -1.51%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:49:40 AM
The OEX moves back toward the day's high. Bulls should keep following the OEX higher with their stops, keep attentive to protecting profits. I don't see a new bullish entry just here, as I believe it's likely that the OEX will pull back. For bears, it's possible that the OEX will soon find support, in the 559.40-560 region, however, so a bearish entry is also, unfortunately, risky.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:48:19 AM
Session low for gold at unchanged, 435.50, down from a high of 438. HUI is fractionally negative while XAU is fractionally positive.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  9:47:02 AM
Alert - Consumer Sentiment = 95.5 , (est 93.1, last 91.7)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:46:17 AM
The TRAN sometimes leads the Dow, the way the SOX sometimes leads the Nasdaq. Careful, Dow bulls.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:44:31 AM
The 30 min cycle oscillators are toppier this morning, almost but not yet maxxed out for QQQ. Channel resistance is up to 38.51, but the channel is slowing its rise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:44:28 AM
KMart Holding (KMRT) $103.84 +1.81% Link .... I'm taking some profits off the table here as KMRT achieves its bullish vertical count of $104.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:44:20 AM
The TRAN is plummeting.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:43:22 AM
Michigan Sentiment due in 2 minutes, est. 93.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:39:37 AM
Despite my concerns, the OEX opens and heads higher again, touching and slightly exceeding the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline, at 561.23. Careful here, as the rise looks like an unhealthy one. Any bulls remaining should continue to be proactive in protecting profits.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:38:35 AM
Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $6.37 +77.5% ... earnings at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:35:08 AM
Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $6.10 +66% Link ... surging early. This is a small/micro cap I profiled earlier this year for longer-term bulls. Target is $8.00. I'll look for news that's driving price.

Disclosure: I currently hold a bullish position (since 1970) in BOOM. Name/symbol changed from Explosive Farbricators.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:34:28 AM
TASR $56.57 -2.32% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:33:31 AM
QUR-LK $6.80

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:32:34 AM
The 30 min cycle upphase continues for QQQ, with channel resistance up to 38.50 now. A move below 38.24 should stall it, but bears need to see a break below 38.18-.20 for 10 minutes to kick off a new downphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:32:28 AM
Swing trade stop alert for the TASR Dec. $55 Call at $6.90.

TASR $55.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:29:50 AM
The H&S-ish look of the futures overnight trading pattern makes me leery of long plays early this morning. Although the S&P and Dow futures rose high enough to technically move past the right-shoulder level, that trading pattern still worries me. I wouldn't have suggested new long entries at this level anyway. We'll look for a pullback and bounce possible entry, but I've also been on the watch for the last couple of weeks for signs that "the" rollover or prolonged sideways correction that's predicted to eventually occur (daily RSI and CCI levels, volatility indices) is beginning. Haven't seen that yet, but I do note that on the OEX, daily CCI is in danger of crossing below +100 after having been above +200. Some do consider that a bearish signal--although Mark or others of the writers are probably more expert at CCI than I am--but it's a countertrend signal, and so risky.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  8:32:08 AM
Equities are moving higher, YM to 10490, QQQ 38.36. Gold is holding at 437.70. TNX is down 2.7 bps at 4.227%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  8:30:58 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. OCT. EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS SALES UP 0.5%

8:30am U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 7.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am U.S. OCT. GAS STATION SALES UP 4.3%

8:30am U.S. OCT. GENERAL MERCHANDISE SALES UP 0.9%

8:30am U.S. OCT. BUILDING MATERIAL SALES DOWN 1.1%

8:30am U.S. OCT. AUTO SALES DOWN 2.2%

8:30am U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES REVISED 1.6% VS. 1.5% PREVIOUS

8:30am U.S. OCT RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.9% VS 0.6% EXPECTED

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  8:26:21 AM
The short cycle downphase noted in last night's Futures Wrap is still in progress, but with obviously weak/negative price traction. Short cycle channel resistance is at 38.40 QQQ, with 30 min channel resistance above at 38.49.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  7:42:42 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1173.5, NQ 1541, YM 10472 and QQQ +.03 at 38.30. Gold is up 2.10 to a session high of 437.60, silver +.034 at 7.51, ten year notes +.265 at 112.2812 and Nymex crude +.45 to 47.875.

We await the 8:30 releases of Sept. business inventories, est. +.5%, retail sales, est. +.1% and retail sales ex auto, est. +.6%. At 9:45 we get Michigan sentiment, est. 93.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  6:52:54 AM
Good morning. Japan's GDP disappointed, as did France's. The Nikkei still posted a strong gain overnight, as did most other Asian bourses. Asian chip-related stocks tended to perform well. Trading in European bourses is mixed this morning as those bourses digest the implications of France's disappointment, coming on the heels of Germany's earlier in the week. Our futures rose while Asian markets traded, dropped when European markets opened, and as of 6:40 EST had climbed near the flat-line level again, the NQ slightly higher while S&P and Dow futures were slightly lower. As of that same time, gold was up $1.60 and crude, up $0.36. More information about Asian and European bourses follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Although Japan's GDP for the third quarter expanded a slower-than-expected rate of 0.1%, annualized at 0.3%, the Nikkei zoomed higher, closing above 11,000. It added 173.06 points or 1.60%, to close at 11,019.98. Expectations had been for an annualized climb of 2.1%. One economist termed the number shocking and thought that Japan could be headed for another recession. Others disagreed. The number showed that demand for Japanese goods lessened, hurt by rising crude oil, and companies cut capital spending as a result. This came on the heels of yesterday's disappointing machinery orders number, seen as a leading indicator of capital spending in the future.

Bourses had been declining over the last week ahead of the GDP, which was rumored to be bad, so there may have been a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact effect at work. Worry over that number appeared to be counteracted by a better-than-expected consumer spending number, too, showing a growth of 0.9% in the third quarter against an expectation of a 0.4% rise. Investors in the Nikkei focused on lower crude rather than their disappointing numbers, too. Asian chip-related stocks benefited from upgrades to RFMD and AMD by CSFB and Merrill Lynch, respectively.

Most other Asian markets gained. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.73%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.79%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.76%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.17%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.38%.

Currently, European bourses turn in mixed performances. France's GDP also disappointed, rising 0.1% against expectations for a 0.4% rise. With Germany's GDP also missing estimates this week, growth forecasts for the eurozone may be scaled back. France appeared to be the focus of much speculation this morning concerning the government's efforts to coordinate a merger of defense contractor Thales with EADS, with the aim of competing with Boeing. The Finance Minister was questioned about the plan, but refused to comment.

German banks gained after Dresdner Bank's earnings report was well received. Dresdner Bank is a subsidiary of Allianz, which also gained after reporting earnings. Nokia was boosted by a Morgan Stanley upgrade.

As of 6:40 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 7.40 points or 0.15%, at 4,784.30. The CAC 40 was down 3.18 points or 0.08%, at 3,830.61. The DAX was up 13.20 points or 0.32%, at 4,144.01.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  10:15:30 PM
Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  9:41:56 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/11/20,  9:38:53 PM
Today the OEX finally broke out of the 555.40-559.40 rectangular range that has contained it since midday Friday. Such breakouts can be used to set upside targets by adding the width of the range to the breakout point. That would set an upside target of 563.40. That would bring the OEX up to the top of a S/R range from earlier this year, with the bottom of that range being near 555.40.

Only there's a hitch. The OEX immediately faced the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline at 561.23, halting just beneath that level. I've mentioned that I'm concerned about the daily RSI level, as it's at levels seen only twice this last 52 weeks, both times preludes to big market declines that occurred within a couple of weeks. Sometimes the OEX hits higher highs after RSI reaches this level, but it's usually doing so while RSI is forming some kind of reversal signal of its own. For example, RSI might be forming a H&S. In June, RSI moved above 70 then dropped below it by June 9. It wasn't until June 24 that the OEX hit that swing high, however and topped out. Using a mere round-trip through the 70 line would have resulted in too early of a bearish entry. However, the OEX was forming a H&S, and it was the break of the RSI through that neckline that signaled that the rollover was beginning. Here's the chart: Link

I'm watching for a similar confirmation on the RSI this time--another H&S, a trendline break or other such confirmation. We may get nothing more than a downturn through the 70 line, but I would prefer a stronger signal. So far, we've gotten none of those. So, although I'm far from comfortable with this statement, we have to go with the trend, and the trend is up for now. That means buying pullbacks. Currently, a pullback on the OEX to 559-559.40 and bounce from there would be an appropriate place to enter a long position. I continue to believe that traders entering long positions should be aware of what they're risking and should perhaps consider smaller than usual positions, but that's the way the charts line up right now. I'm not comfortable suggesting long plays with VIX and VXO dipping to sub-13 levels today, though. Definitely have to hold my nose to suggest such things.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/11/20,  8:47:18 PM
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