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  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  4:16:44 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Swing trade long two (2) additional SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ) at the ovver of $2.40 when the SMH was trading $33.58.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  4:02:51 PM
Buy Program Premium .... DIA $105.68, SPY $118.70, QQQ $38.81

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  4:00:45 PM
Buy Program Premium .... DIA $105.69, SPY $118.75 , QQQ $38.82.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  4:00:27 PM
The OEX is being run up into the close. It's testing the descending trendline that it's been forming all day.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  3:59:22 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $53.20 +0.13% .... gets some volume and upward price action to the close.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  3:55:24 PM
Since about mid-morning today (see my 10:16 post), I've been leaning toward a sideways kind of day. That's what we're getting on the OEX. That sideways day is creating a small-bodied candle at the top of a rise, a potential reversal signal, so we'll look for signs of weakness tomorrow. Bears want to see an open below today's close and a move down from there to confirm the reversal signal. Bulls want to see the OEX climb higher. What we may well see is the kind of action in early November, with potential reversal signals followed by another reversal signal and another, and then the OEX shooting up.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  3:55:19 PM
Schuff Intl. (AMEX:SHF) $3.10 +55% ... sudden pop from $2.00 this afternoon after filing its recent 10-Q. Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  3:42:51 PM
The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's is at 564.72 and 564.26, respectively. The OEX hasn't been below those averages since Wednesday afternoon.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  3:41:16 PM
The sideways drift is actually rolling the 30 and 60 min cycle channels here, and with support coming down to 38.55 (30 min) and 38.50 (60 min). Below 38.58, we should see a retest of the session low for QQQ, for what it's worth. I see little reason for the price to suddenly start moving after such an aimless day.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  3:41:13 PM
The OEX trades in the middle of the formation I depicted in the chart linked to my 15:19 post.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  3:28:20 PM
The TRAN is headed down again for a retest of the rising trendline off Wednesday's late-afternoon high. That trendline is now just over 3600.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  3:19:23 PM
Here's what I see on the OEX's ten-minute chart. The CCI hasn't been as helpful since this morning as it had been over the last few days. Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  3:15:26 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  3:07:36 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  3:06:44 PM
The advdec line is coiling like everything else.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  3:04:37 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,183.22 , QQQ $38.77

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  3:03:20 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,182.74 , QQQ $38.72

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  3:01:19 PM
Now the OEX's formation has morphed into one that appears to be a bearish right triangle--descending top and flat bottom--although close study could call it a shallow falling wedge, too, with a bottom that declines slightly. It's coming down again to test the support. The point of all of this is that the formation morphs one way and then another as buyers and sellers battle it out and keep trading within a tight range.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  2:53:45 PM
I'm back and the OEX is still going sideways. Keltner lines have separated, so that it's difficult to assess whether up or down is more likely.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  2:53:31 PM
This is excruciating. Wait for the break above QQQ 38.86 or below 38.58.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  2:31:36 PM
Nymex crude had a 9 week low of 45.30 today, currently closed at 46.775, -1.16% for the day.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  2:28:29 PM
The 30 minute cycle oscillators have rolled over again, with the cycle channel stalling in its drift up. Resistance is now up to 38.95. The 7200 tick SMA has made it to 38.71, below which the channel's support is at 38.58. That remains key intermediate support on the way to the day low, below which bears should see the ongoing bearish oscillator divergence actually bear fruit.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  2:24:56 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,182.44, QQQ $38.75.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  2:24:28 PM
Stepping away for ten or fifteen minutes. Watch the 565.30-566.64 range for a breakout, although the top trendline could be considered a declining one that now crosses closer to 566.30.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  2:22:49 PM
Here we go again. The OEX bounces.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  2:19:26 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  2:18:45 PM
The OEX approaches the confirmation level for the double-top/rectangular formation. If the OEX is going ton continue within this formation, it should be drawing close to a bounce again. Watch 564.30-564.40 for a potential bounce. The three-minute chart suggests that it won't get far if it bounces, and both the three- and seven-minute charts suggest that 563.10-563.30 might provide a stronger bounce. It's possible then that even after breaking out of this morning's range, the OEX won't meet the downside target.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  2:12:09 PM
The total CBOE put to call ratio is very low at .51, up from a session low of .44. This is lower than the equity p/c ratio usually is on its own.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  2:09:21 PM
Tension is as high as action is low. QQQ is up all of 9 cents, the Naz all of 1.2 points. Ten year bond yields are down 0.4 bps. All that's running here is the clock, and traders' supplies of Rolaids.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  2:07:53 PM
We're no longer watching for a potential H&S on the OEX, but rather for a potential double-top confirmation. They'd occur at the same place (about 564.40) and would have about the same downside target (just over 562), so it doesn't much matter whether we call this a H&S with a lop-sided right shoulder, a rectangular consolidation pattern or a double-top.

The only place it would matter would be in our approach to the market. A rectangular trading range would be rather neutral in interpretation while the other two would appear a bit more bearish, so our expectations would be, too.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  2:05:41 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  2:01:50 PM
The TRAN has not yet fallen beneath an ascending trendline off Wednesday's late-afternoon low, but it's headed down to test it. That trendline crosses at just under 3600, and the TRAN is at 3602.62 as I type, not a day's low.

  Jim Brown   11/15/20,  2:00:41 PM
FOX reporting a man set himself on fire outside the White House

  Tab Gilles   11/15/20,  1:57:34 PM
As I've called for in recent weeks to watch the near-term $47 level for any bounce in oil. Now $45.50 if broken could really add more fuel to this extended market. Link

MUR may retest its 100-ema soon. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  1:57:31 PM
Nymex crude is up to 46.225, down 2.36% for the day. Dec. gold is down 1 at 437.30, with HUI -1.72% at 237.7.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  1:54:04 PM
Semiconductor Bullish % (BPSEMI) from Dorsey/Wright and Associates achieved "bull confirmed" status on Friday by rising 0.63% to 34.83%. This should have the offensive team back on the field for chips.

One of the first stocks to give a reversing higher point and figure buy signal was Maxim Integrated (MXIM) $43.24 +1.71% Link at the $45.00 level as this sector's bullish % first reversed up to "bull alert" status. MXIM is one of my "key stocks" for this sector.

Bull's defendend MXIM on Friday above the $41.00 level.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  1:52:14 PM
No sooner had I mentioned that symmetrical triangle on the OEX than the OEX turned down out of the triangle. Is it broadening into a wider one? Just moving down to test the bottom of today's range? Take your pick.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  1:47:11 PM
Now the OEX is morphing into another formation, a potential symmetrical triangle. This morphing from one formation into another is typical of days like this.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  1:32:59 PM
Although the 30 min cycle oscillators have moved to a weak upphase here, the bearish divergence has not been invalidated. Patient bears will want to see a break below the 38.68-.70 line (current location of the 7200 tick SMA) to set up a retest of 38.58 and 38.50 support, below which the drop should accelerate as suggested by the bearish divergence. Until that 7200-tick SMA break, however, the benefit of the doubt continues to go to the bulls.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  1:31:45 PM
From this vantage point, The OEX looks as likely to rise up and test resistance as it does to fall and test support. The picture keeps changing, but that's what happens with a sideways or consolidating or choppy market.

The OEX is at least building a rectangular trading range, perhaps. If so, and if it trades that range long enough that it's well-defined, we'll be able to see a breakout one direction or another. Downside support appears to be at about 564.40, but upside resistance is a little more ragged and difficult to define. It obviously ranges up to the day's high, though, at 566.64.

Any considering buying an upside break should be aware that the OEX is moving into a congestion zone from January.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  1:23:50 PM
And the OEX falls back out of the rising channel. Perhaps QCharts just snapped that channel incorrectly, because I see on the Keltner version of that channel that the OEX never climbed back inside but merely climbed the underside of the former supporting trendline, as I suggested it might do in my 11:24 post. Although the potential H&S looks lopsided now and the formation might have little relevance, let's watch the potential neckline, now at about 564.40. The OEX continues to look vulnerable to a pullback, and I wouldn't suggest buying support at this time until we see what happens with that H&S-ish formation. However, any in bearish trades want to see that neckline breached and want to see the OEX tumble quickly to the 562.15-ish downside target (and beyond). There's still a danger of dip-buyers stepping in at each breach of each potential support. Lots of hurting bears out there, and that could produce more sideways than down.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  1:13:30 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  1:09:53 PM
I've compressed this chart to show how long the blue 72-ema has played a part in crude's (December) trading behavior. Today, crude breaks below that average. Unless there's a quick bounce today back above that average, this signals a trend change, at least with regard to this average. Link I haven't drawn it on this chart, but it's possible to draw a long-term ascending trendline that crosses at about $41.75, so without a quick bounce today, crude may look vulnerable down to that level. Crude tests the 100-dma (also not shown), however, and that average has sometimes provided a bounce when the 50-dma didn't.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  1:06:31 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  1:05:47 PM
Marc, the daily cycle is running out of racetrack, and even the intraday cycles are toppy. I see a greater likelihood of a pullback to satisfy those cycles, but trending moves are become less and less rare. We'll find out soon enough.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  1:04:32 PM
As others have perhaps mentioned, today crude tests its 100-sma, with that average at $45.30 and with crude for December delivery currently at $45.45.

  Marc Eckelberry   11/15/20,  1:01:36 PM
Jonathan, do you think they will give us a year double top at QQQ 39? NDX didn't seem to give it a passing thought and has now cruised past that point.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  1:01:19 PM
The OEX is back inside the rising regression channel from yesterday morning. It hasn't quite reached a new high, but it's chugging right up toward that level. It never did confirm the H&S on its five-minute chart, so once again we have an instance when buying support--scary when that support is the neckline of a potential H&S-- was probably more profitable than selling resistance. So far, we're just having the kind of sideways day I thought we might have. Or rather, I was afraid we might have.

  Jim Brown   11/15/20,  12:56:57 PM
Speech by Fed Governor Mark W. Olson
Recent Economic Experience and Outlook Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  12:55:34 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $60.10 +4.52% .... Jeff, I thought TASR was supposed to split today. Did I get it wrong?

Yes... today is the record date and the 2:1 split doesn't take place on or about Nov. 29. So, even if you buy tomorrow, or up until the actual split, you'll still get 2:1, but the record date is the actual date the Transfer Agent will benchmark all shareholders of record, for the actual split. That's all.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  12:53:29 PM
QQQ is showing a lower stochastic high against the morning's rise higher in price, but the bearish-divergent downphase has just stalled on the latest wavelet bounce. The downphase will survive if the bounce stops here, but it will whipsaw to the upside otherwise. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are lined up at 38.60- a failure to fall back below 38.75 for 10 minutes should be enough to turn the channels higher.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  12:47:32 PM
Current OPEN MM Pofiles at this Link

I've broken down the SMH trades (buy calls and sell call positions) and primary focus remains the sold Nov. $32.50 calls (where there is still some premium at these prices, ($33.63 - $32.50 = $1.13) of 7 cents ($1.20 - $1.13) per contract.

At this point, it becomes a "do nothing" trade until Friday, but most likely will sell the 10/06 and 10/22 Jan. $32.50 calls in order to generate cash to buy back the Nov. $32.50 calls as I don't have the stock to deliver against the Nov. $32.50 calls sold.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  12:47:08 PM
The OEX rises into the potential right-shoulder zone for its H&S, but as it does, Keltner resistance thins a bit. It's not as firm as it was earlier, so it's uncertain as to whehter it will hold the OEX back or not.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  12:24:54 PM
The OEX climbs laboriously upward. The right shoulder level hasn't yet been breached, but neither has the formation been confirmed. That would take a break below the day's low.

  Tab Gilles   11/15/20,  12:14:48 PM
Semi charts: Intel appears to have a bearish divergence. Link AMD looks bullish and has had a big run up. Link A look at AMD, INTC, SMH & SMPIX: Link If INTC weakens here it will hamper the Nasdaq/NDX as the GHA and GSO have been strong leaders.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  12:10:12 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  12:09:46 PM
Despite the 10B+ worth of liquidity added by the Fed today, the TNX is unchanged at 4.2%, ZN futures also flat, and equities are trading both sides of unchanged. I believe that the tab for some of the recent bond auctions comes due today, but I'm not sure. QQQ volume is light, and a wavelet cycle upphase is just cresting here.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  12:04:36 PM
The OEX is still rising along the underside of the violated rising regression channel, but it still retains the possibility of building a H&S at the top of its climb. A move to a new high would negate that. If it's building a H&S, it should probably round off somewhere near 565.50-565.60, right where Keltner charts show there's some potential resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  12:02:20 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:59:59 AM
The OEX still hasn't made it up to the 565.50 area, but it may not be through trying. The Keltner resistance now has risen a bit higher than that, up to 565.60-566.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  11:54:44 AM
The Fed has announced a coupon pass in the amount of 1.198B, bringing the day's net add to 10.198B. The coupon pass is a permanent addition to liquidity and does not need to be reimbursed by the Fed's dealers.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  11:51:02 AM
Nymex crude is back to 46.075 after dipping to 45.60, currently down 2.75%. Gold is down 1.50 at 436.80, HUI -1.36% at 238.56.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:48:31 AM
The OEX hasn't been able to rise up far enough to retest that resistance near 565.50, at least not yet. Instead, it's being pressured by lower resistance, resistance that appeared more minor. We may not have seen the real bounce attempt yet, though.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  11:41:28 AM
QQQ is back up to the 7200 tick SMA now at 38.65. This level's turning into a chop zone. A lower high below 38.78 will confirm the weakness in the 30 min and short cycles.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  11:34:48 AM
There's a bearish engulfing 100-tick candle printing on QQQ, wiping out the last 5 minutes' worth of gains. That sets up a retest of the 38.56 wavelet low, which sets up a reetest of the session low of 38.50. It looks like a new short cycle downphase in progress, sufficiently so to stall the 30 min cycle upphase.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:33:00 AM
From a Keltner perspective, the OEX currently tests support. If it holds, it appears that the OEX might rise to test resistance converging near 565.50, a little over and under that number. That resistance looks strong enough to hold, which might then roll the OEX back down toward the mid-channel level, now from 562.32-563.13 but still rising. If that nearby support fails, the OEX might head straight down to that mid-channel level.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:24:24 AM
Sideways trading on the OEX after breaking down out of that rising channel. Careful, bears. During other rallies, this kind of action has preceded a climb up along the underside of the broken supporting trendline. There's a potential H&S forming on the OEX's 10-minute chart, and the OEX could perhaps rise up to form a right shoulder before rounding down again. A move to a new high of the day would negate that possibility. A move below the low of the day would signal that the OEX was going to dispense with the whole right-shoulder-forming exercise and just drop toward the 562.15 or so downside target that would have been predicted by the H&S.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:15:42 AM
The OEX is now below its rising regression channel, with the 10-minute CCI having accurately predicted, a few moments before it actually happened, that trendline break. That's what I like about CCI and RSI. Both can serve as leading indicators. The OEX is rising to retest that broken trendline, but 10-minute CCI isn't rising, suggesting that the OEX might find resistance soon and roll down again.

However, bears need to be aware of sideways or sideways-to-slightly-down trading, which is actually what might be expected to digest those strong gains and decide what might happen next. Bulls have got to be fidgety with those historically high RSI and CCI numbers last week and historically low volatility numbers, so it's possible they could bail. However, sideways-to-slightly-down should probably get our vote for today until proven otherwise. Guard any bearish profits made.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  11:14:56 AM
QQQ is now below 7200-tick SMA support at 38.65, which is a potentially bearish move for the short cycle oscillators which are turning lower from their trending position. A break below the session low of 38.50 that stays below would shift the bias to bearish on all intraday cycles up to the 60 min. 38.50 is 30 min channel support and 38.40 is the 60 min bottom- the channels are flattening now, and should turn down from current levels with a test of the session low with the next 10 minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  11:13:16 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:08:53 AM
The TRAN could not break above this morning's gap.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:08:29 AM
The SOX has hit the top of its rising wedge, piercing it and pulling back inside the channel. Important moment for the SOX.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:07:42 AM
Turning to Keltner channels now, I see that the OEX has broken back into the Keltner channels, erasing the breakout signal. It's vulnerable now down to mid-channel support, in the 562.16-563 region, but still rising.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:06:05 AM
The OEX is edging below that rising channel's support. The ten-minute CCI was right. Bulls should be aware that this might be signaling a trend change. New bears should be aware that any pullback could actually just be a sideways consolidation.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  11:03:28 AM
11:00 Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:01:58 AM
The 10-minute CCI has dropped below the trendline. That may predict that the OEX will drop out of its ascending regression channel, too, as the CCI can be a leading indicator. Be careful, bulls.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  11:01:15 AM
In Mark's 10:44 post on the Futures side, he noted that our futures had remained flat last night while the Nikkei zoomed higher. I'd noted that divergence this morning, too, in my Asia/Europe post, wondering if it meant that the rally was tired. What concerned me about the Nikkei's climb, too, was that it's come after a devastatingly disappointing GDP number. The Nikkei had been dropping quickly ahead of that number. Maybe an oversold bounce?

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:56:15 AM
The OEX is again at the midline of its ascending regression channel. The 10-minute CCI has headed down to retest that horizontal trendline that has been in place since Thursday morning, the same time at which the rising channel was established. I'm watching for either a bounce or a downturn, but we still have several minutes left in this 10-minute period.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:53:09 AM
Swing trade add to SMH calls alert .... Buying two (2) more of the SMH Jan. $32.50 Calls (SMH-AZ) at the offer of $2.40.

On Friday's expiration, will have to sell 2 to 5 of these (SMH-AZ), then close out (to pay for) the Nov. $32.50 calls (SMH-KZ)

SMH $33.58 +1.64% here.

SOX.X 431 here. Just above WEEKLY R1

SMH Weekly Pivot levels ... $31.33, $32.17, Piv = $32.65, $33.51, $33.99.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:51:21 AM
I'm still caught on the telephone. The 10-minute CCI is headed down again to retest the horizontal trendline on the CCI.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:46:49 AM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $46.20 -2.36% .... (30-min delayed)

Big breakdown on the $WTIC 50-cent box size chart today. (spread triple bottom sell signal, break of trend) Link

25-cent Link continues to DIVERGE from recent bullish recoveries.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:45:09 AM
Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 115.69 -2.96% ... getting hit to session lows.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:40:43 AM
Jupitermedia (JUPM) $19.30 +2.05% ... announced today that it had acquired all of the remaining shares of Hemera Technologies for $7.3 million in cash. Hamera Tech is based in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada, and is a leading resurce for royalty free digital images for business users and creative professionals. Hemera sells images on CD and DVD as well as download over the Internet, individually or through subscription, through its Ablestock.com and ImageExpress.com Web sites.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:40:26 AM
I'm stepping away for a few minutes.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:39:57 AM
New high on the OEX. In my 10:21 post, I suggested that we not discount the possibility of a new high.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  10:39:11 AM
QQQ is painting a new high, reaching for 60 min resistance at 38.79, with 30 min channel resistance up to 38.85. Whether it looks weak or strong, the price remains bullish above the 7200-tick SMA, which is currently up to 38.61 QQQ. The steadiness of the ascent has flattened the short cycle oscillators, which are currently trending, and so I will be watching that SMA as the first indication of a "real" short cycle pullback. Nymex crude is breaking below 46 as I type.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:37:53 AM
The SOX has moved above its 200-ema. Bulls don't want to see it drop back below that average now. It's testing the top of its rising wedge shape on the daily chart. A breakout there suggests a trip up to test the 200-sma at 442.57, but bets are off if it rolls back down below that 200-ema again instead.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:31:55 AM
The OEX bounces from the midline of the rising regression channel, a sign of strength if it can now reach a new high.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:28:58 AM
It looks as if the OEX is ready to travel down through its rising channel again. I'm going to be watching that horizontal trendline on the 10-minute CCI to see if there's another CCI bounce or a break in that trendline instead. CCI has turned down toward that trendline again.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  10:28:08 AM
Session low for Dec. gold at 437.10, with HUI -.76% at 240.01. Also session low for CAD futures at .832, with Nymex crude down 1.95% at 46.40.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:26:04 AM
What's up with the TRAN on the open these days? The TRAN plummeted again this morning, and has now risen to retest this morning's gap lower. It's pulling back at the top of the gap, but that recovery was a "V" recovery, so it's difficult to know whether this is just a bull-flag pullback or a failure below the double-top level. Doesn't look like a bull flag. This is strange behavior on the TRAN at the top of its recent trading pattern, and the TRAN threatens to complete a daily CCI ghost or has completed one (depending on how the neckline is drawn) at the top of its climb. I'd vote that it has completed one and that the TRAN has reached or has nearly reached a top.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:23:48 AM
Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $10.57 +42.91% Link ....

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  10:22:07 AM
QQQ broke to a nominal new high at 38.71 but is pulling back down. Volume is steady but not confirming a breakout on the move above Friday's top. 7200-tick SMA support is at 38.60, below which we should see a quick retest of the session low. Above that level, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls, but it's currently a big doubt with the price stalled below the current high.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:21:50 AM
Double-top on the OEX? Perhaps, but I wouldn't give up on a higher high just yet.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:18:12 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:16:56 AM
The OEX so far maintains its breakout status on the 7-minute chart. This actually worries me a good deal, though, because I've seen a lot of Keltner channel breakouts that carry through to the open the next day, but then soon crater. "Crater" in Keltner terms means moving down or sideways to retest mid-channel support, with that mid-channel support now at 561.72 but rising. The OEX could move sideways out of that rising channel until the mid-channel line rose to meet it or almost to meet it, so don't assume that any bearish signals you notice predict a pullback. In a strongly trending market, they might signal a sideways consolidation only, and that's kind of what I'd expect for today.

I was studying this weekend and came across a truism I've known, of course, but that might apply here, too. When markets have been trending, and oscillators have pretty well proven themselves useless at predicting anything more than a sideways consolidation, you'll often miss the first move of a trend change. That's just something that happens, unless you happen to be psychic. Does this bearish cross mean more than the previous one? Does that bearish divergence mean more than the last one? You just don't know. Keep following the trend, and when your trend-following plays stop working, you can suspect that the trend has stopped.

With that said, like everyone else, I keep expecting each bearish divergence and each bearish cross to mean something. My brain says one thing and has been for a while (bullish until proven otherwise) but my natural caution says something else.

  Jane Fox   11/15/20,  10:13:00 AM
Dateline CNN U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has submitted his resignation, a senior administration official tells CNN.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:10:25 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  10:05:58 AM
The Fed has announced a 52-day repo of 4B plus a 5B overnight repo for a total of 9B added with no expiries today.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:05:34 AM
Watching for a possible new high in the OEX . . . or for a lower or equal high, too. So far, though, the OEX continues chugging up through that rising channel it began establishing Thursday morning. That channel looks too steep and too narrow to be sustained in that form, at least to me, but the OEX is doing an admirable form of sustaining it so far. For a look at the channel, see the chart linked to my 9:44 post.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:02:56 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  9:57:15 AM
Back. QQQ is still challenging Friday's high with little progress as bonds hit a session low, TNX up .2 bps at 4.202%. Channel resistance remains 38.80, and the 30 minute cycle oscillator is nearing the top of its range.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:56:59 AM
The SOX currently tests its 200-ema at 425.61, easing just above it and now dropping back to it, still in the challenging phase. Careful here and at the top of the rising wedge, near 429.90.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:54:37 AM
Jupitermedia (JUPM) $19.59 +3.43% Link ... trade at $19.50 is 3-box reversal back higher. Support should be firm above $17.50.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:53:56 AM
The OEX's ten-minute CCI is attempting to turn up from that horizontal trendline pictured in the chart linked to my 9:44 post. It's not ready to fall through that trendline yet, and is moving back up through that ascending regression channel. Once again, buying the dip to that CCI trendline and price rising trendline was a better idea that selling it on a supposed break of the trendline. Didn't happen yet. Of course, we haven't seen yet whether the OEX can reach all the way to the top of that ascending regression channel, either. It's consolidating at the top half of the rising channel, preparatory to another rise or to a rollover.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:52:28 AM
VIX.X 13.90 +4.27% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.86, 13.12, Piv= 13.30, 13.56, 13.74.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:50:39 AM
Buy Program Premium

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:50:03 AM
The TRAN is plummeting again, as it did Friday morning. This time, it's plummeting from an equal high level on the 10-minute chart. Confirmation of that double-top formation would come on a drop below Friday's low of 3580.64, reached during the 9:50 10-minute candle.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:50:01 AM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 204.72 +0.4% .... new 52-weeker here.

Recent call play Jupitermedia (JUPM) $19.22 +1.47% participating with the Internets.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:47:02 AM
Networking Index (NWX.X) 245.01 +0.27% .... closed above its 200-day SMA (243.36) on Friday. Edging above Friday's high here.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.40 +0.72% ... moves into its post-earnings gap.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:44:32 AM
All day Thursday and Friday, CCI kept coming down and touching a horizontal trendline (ten-minute chart) and then bouncing back from that, signaling a new bullish entry each time it touched. It's testing that trendline now. Watch for a trendline break or for a CCI bounce again as a sign of what might happen to the OEX as it tests its ascending trendline. CCI sometimes leads other indicators, as does RSI. Remember that this is a ten-minute chart, so that CCI might change character again before the completion of this ten-minute period: Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:41:49 AM
Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 118.02 -0.98% .... slips back below its rising 50-day SMA 118.41, right on its 21-day SMA 118.09.

Looks short/put with a stop just above November high.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:40:38 AM
As the OEX rolls down to test bottom support on its rising regression channel, MACD makes an above-signal bearish cross on the five-minute chart. Bulls normally don't want to see bearish crosses as support is tested, but if you scroll through Friday's trading, you see that each time the OEX tested that lower support, MACD had made a similar bearish cross. Don't read too much into this as yet. Bulls should be watchful now, as that channel is tested, however.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:37:09 AM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.88 -0.44% .....

Nov. $32.50 calls (SMH-KZ) bid $0.70

Dec. $35 calls (SMH-LG) bid $0.40.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:36:38 AM
For those with bearish hopes for the OEX, you want to see the OEX drop out of that rising channel on the five-minute chart, perhaps in the next few minutes, then spend the first retracement period coming up to retest that broken support and finding that it's now resistance, rolling down again. Such a test would give you a bearish entry, but still a cautious one with this being opex week and with bullish enthusiasm perhaps not yet run its course. We seldom get such wonderful and well-ordered entries, whether bulls or bears, however.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:34:48 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $61.74 +7.39% .... on news that South Korean law enforcement has decided to perform additional field tests of Taser's stun gun weapons. TASR saying initial order of 100 devices is expected to ship during the current quarter.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:34:26 AM
The OEX opens and moves down, through the ascending regression channel on its five-minute chart. Keltner support gathers near the lower line of that rising channel, from 564.40 to toward the OEX's current 564.90-ish level.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  9:32:22 AM
Micromuse (MUSE) $5.40 +17.3% ... after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.07 (ex-items) versus consensus of $0.01 per share.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  9:27:55 AM
An uptick in the 30 minute cycle oscillators so far look like a bearish divergence despite the recovery in the premarket, with QQQ back to flat at 38.66. Currently, the 30 min cycle channel has resistance at 38.80, support at 38.40.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  9:15:38 AM
As displayed in the chart linked to my 7:13 post, the OEX ended Friday at the top of the steep ascending regression channel that it's been trading inside since Thursday. It should, therefore, be ready soon to retreat, but notice that the channel is only about 2 points wide. Late Friday, the OEX was finding support at the midline, so was retreating only about a point before moving up again. I think it's probably time for a retreat soon to the bottom of the channel again, but there's no guarantee at this point that the OEX will drop out of that channel or even that it won't gap above it this morning. If the channel is only two points wide, that's not giving much room to the downside, but those who feel they are quick on the trigger on both entries and exits could try playing the moves through the channel until it breaks. I think until the trend breaks, though, it's probably better to buy touches of the lower trendline than to sell touches of the top one, but you can bet I'm going to be watching for signs that the OEX is ready for a deeper retreat. Last December-January's example shows us that those signs don't have to appear just yet.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  8:51:57 AM
Tyson Foods (TSN) $16.88 ... seeing trade from $17.50 to $18.00 over New York ECN after earnings. Company reported EPS of $0.19 versus consensus of $0.16.

  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  8:48:50 AM
Taser Intl (TASR) $57.50 .... trading $60.70 pre-market. If it opens here, will have achieved its bullish vertical count. Bulls should take some type of profit at this point. Pay yourself!

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  8:31:20 AM
Equities are lower, QQQ -.11 at 38.55. Bonds are up slightly, TNX -.5 bps at 4.195%, gold down to 439.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  8:30:44 AM


8:30am U.S. NOV. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 19.8 VS 17.4 IN OCT.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/15/20,  8:05:58 AM
Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1183, NQ 1555, YM 10532 and QQQ -.06 at 38.60. Gold is up 2 to 440.30, 20 cents off its session high, silver flat at 7.617, ten year notes up .046 at 112.4375 and Nymex crude -.525 at 46.80.

We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 20.4.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  7:13:33 AM
Although I usually post my ideas on the OEX during the evening, I wanted to see how our futures reacted overnight to strong gains in the Nikkei and then to European markets' behavior. The answer was that they didn't react much at all, so we should perhaps factor that into our view for the OEX's behavior, too.

The OEX charged higher into the close Friday. It's moved up into January's heavy congestion zone, so gains should slow, and perhaps that's echoed in the futures' action overnight. I've mentioned reasons why I'm worried about a potential prolonged sideways consolidation or pullback, but for now the trend is up, and we have to go with that. To help us determine when pullback entries might occur or when the current uptrend might have paused, the OEX has established a well-formed rising regression channel. We can go long on bounces from the bottom support and enter bearish positions on drops through that bottom support, but in each case, be willing to be wrong and jump sides quickly. Here's the channel: Link If the OEX should break through the bottom of that channel, those considering bearish positions should be aware that such a pullback might be sideways more than down. On the OEX, at least, we have not yet seen an RSI or CCI H&S, trendline break, or other formation that would serve as a leading indicator of the bigger correction occurring.

If the OEX should break through the upside of that channel, we'll have to revise our plan, but I'm going to be conservative about suggesting upside breakout entries in this kind of environment, and would need to see confirmation from breadth indicators.

  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  6:58:11 AM
Good morning. Despite GDP disappointments last week in Japan and two European countries, most Asian bourses posted strong gains and European markets climb modestly, too. The dollar's weakness early in the overnight session was a focus as some postulated that the U.S. didn't care about the dollar's weakness and that it would therefore weaken more. Snow spoke out from Ireland, however, saying that the U.S. did want a strong dollar, and the dollar firmed slightly against both the yen and the euro. The firming was slight, however. As of 6:47 EST, gold was up $2.00 and crude, down $0.23. Our futures have not shown much reaction to overnight activity. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

One trading day after a GDP disappointment that was termed shocking, the Nikkei gapped up Monday morning, rose into the midday break, steadied most of the afternoon, and then climbed into the high of the day. It closed only a few points off that high of the day, up 207.59 points or 1.88%, at 11,227.57. Exporters posted gains despite continued weakness in the dollar early in the session. It was the banking sector that was credited with leading gains, however, with each of the four major banks climbing almost 3%. Friday, Moody's Investors Service had upgraded ratings on some banks associated with those banks. In addition, Japan's biggest banks raised their ratings for a number of borrowers.

Most other Asian markets gained, with the Taiwan Weighted one exception. That bourse closed down 0.18%. South Korea's LG Electronics plans to go ahead with a trade dispute with Japan's Matsushita Electric Industrial Company, seeking to void two patents Matsushita holds related to plasma display panels. LG Electronics ended the day flat, but the Kospi gained 0.65%. Singapore's Straits Times was closed for a holiday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.07%. China's October retail sales rose 14.2% from the previous year's. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.32%.

Currently, European bourses post gains, too, but more modest gains. In the U.K., telecoms gain on speculation that some mobile operators will announce plans to pay dividends or increase dividends. Vodafone is one company mentioned. It reports earnings tomorrow. Steel group Arcelor rose after reporting its earnings. As part of the statement accompanying that report, the company said that demand from China had remained strong.

As of 6:47 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 9.40 points or 0.20%, to trade at 4,803.30. The CAC 40 gained 2.39 points or 0.06%, to trade at 3,837.50. The DAX had gained 6.14 points or 0.15%, to trade at 4,149.49.

  OI Technical Staff   11/13/20,  3:13:24 AM
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