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  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  9:05:02 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  9:02:56 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  8:52:39 PM
Tuesday, the OEX completed a three-candle reversal signal known as an evening star. It also confirmed a H&S formation on the daily RSI, the type of RSI reversal signal that I've been watching for since the RSI moved above 70 about a week ago. That RSI H&S corroborates what we're seeing on the candles. A possible downside target might be the 19.1% retracement of the rally off the October low, at about 558.20, although there's some evidence that the OEX might find support nearer 561.00. Although most retracement are of the 1/3-2/3 caliber, I'm not so sure yet that we can count on this one taking the OEX that low. That 558.20 zone would also constitute a retest of the descending trendline that had formed the top of the recent bull flag.

However, during strong rallies, sometimes retracements are minor and consist of sideways movement more than pullbacks. Since breaking through the ascending trendline off the October 25 low, a break that occurred early yesterday morning, the OEX has traded sideways in a tight range. Such a sideways trade after a trendline break is a danger signal that could mean that the OEX will rise to retest the trendline it broke through yesterday or just establish a new rising trendline at a lower angle. So, we'll watch for a break out of yesterday tight range, with a break through the upside coming on a move above 563.72 and a break to the downside occurring on a break below 562.19.

New bears who thought about entering on a downside breakout might find that the OEX soon finds support near 561, so those seeking new bearish entries might instead want to enter on tests of and rollovers from the top of that range, near 563.70. Make sure that breadth indicators favor such a move, however and be willing to get out right away if the OEX instead breaks to the upside. Those favoring new bullish entries similarly might find the OEX soon hitting resistance, perhaps even as soon as the 50% retracement of this week's decline, at about 564.20, so they might seek new entries on bounces from the lower end of that range. With a completed reversal signal on the daily chart, corroborated by a confirmed RSI H&S, I wouldn't favor those new bullish entries, however, but aggressive traders could consider them if breadth indicators strongly favored them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  6:31:52 PM
SUNW $5.20 x $5.22. Taking some notes here that Cincinnati is the seller at $5.22 so far tonight. Level II traders might want to watch him early tomorrow morning, see where he's a bidder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  6:12:33 PM
Good Gravy! .... SUNW finding a bid to $5.21

Conventional retracement from Feb. high $5.93 to recent August low $3.29 has 50% at $4.92 and 80.9% at $5.42.

SUNW WEEKLY R1 at $4.98, WEEKLY R2 $5.09.

Quick run of today's h/l/c would have DAILY Pivot levels as follows....

4.87, 4.91, $5.00, $5.04, $5.13.

November "Max Pain" of $4.00 ($1 increments) doesn't look to be in play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  6:06:04 PM
Day trade long alert .... for Sun Micro (SUNW) $5.07 offer, stop $4.98, target $5.35.

When writing tonight's Index Wrap, HP makes special note about strong Intel server sales.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  6:04:08 PM
Trader makes sense.... on CNBC regarding SUNW having big day tomorrow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  5:21:33 PM
Lexmark Intl. (LXK) $86.10 -0.53% ... unchanged in extended session on very light volume trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  5:12:41 PM
December Crude (CL04z) $45.98 -0.28% .... breaks back below $46.00 again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  5:04:30 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.53 -0.29% ... last tick at $33.83, did just spike to $33.90 in response to HPQ earnings.

HPQ went out at $19.68, surging to $21.15.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/16/20,  4:40:36 PM
MUR chart: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/16/20,  4:15:29 PM
Alert - HPQ earnings = +0.41, est +0.37, rev higher, guidance raised - strongest printer quarter ever.
JWN earnings = +0.54, est +0.47, raised guidance
SCMR earnings = -0.03, est -0.03 - revenue light
GYMB earnings = +0.17, est +0.17 - revenue light
NTAP earnings = +0.16, est +0.14 - revenue light, raised guidance

STA received subpoena on insurance bid rigging.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  4:11:57 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Day trade short the Semi HOLDRs (SMH) at $33.54, closed out trade prior to close at $33.50 ($+0.04, or +0.12%).

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/16/20,  3:59:03 PM
Earnings after the close:

BGP est -0.02
HPQ est +0.37
JWN est +0.47
GYMB est +0.17
LTXX est -0.19
NTAP est +0.14
SCMR est -0.03

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  3:58:43 PM
SMH $33.42 -0.6% ... back at DAILY Pivot.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/16/20,  3:58:28 PM
Attached is a WTIC chart I've annotated with Fib retracements, channel and H&S patterns. Just speculating on the next few months. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  3:58:24 PM
If you're feeling hungry a CNN article reports that fast-food chain Hardee's has unleashed a "monster" burger. The beast is served up with two 1/3 pound Angus beef patties, four strips of bacon, three slices of cheese and mayonnaise on a buttered sesame seed bun.

The burger weighs in at a whopping 1,420 calories with 107 grams of fat will cost about $5.49. I'm sure Dr. Atkins would approve.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  3:54:38 PM
Bears want to see the OEX close beneath 563.21 today. That's the midpoint of Friday's tall white candle, and strictly speaking, the OEX needs to close below there to confirm the evening-star pattern.

Earlier today, Keith mentioned (Futures side) that sometimes during 2003, the only reversal was the candle that created the reversal signal. That's possible this time, too. It's time for OEX bears to make a decision about whether they want to hold overnight or not. Those who wanted to get out near 562.50-563 had ample opportunity to do so, so perhaps those with higher risk tolerance are the only ones left in the trade. There's a RSI H&S that's been confirmed on the daily chart, suggesting the OEX may be near at least a short-term top, but bears who hold overnight run the risk that the OEX will bounce up again. Until proven otherwise, we still have to consider bearish trades countertrend, although it's possible that will change soon. I think I'd take the risk.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  3:53:52 PM
SMH $33.49

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  3:53:43 PM
Semiconductor stock XLNX is up 1.7% and breaking out over resistance at its exponential 200-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  3:52:53 PM
Bearish day trade close out alert .... for the Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $33.50 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  3:52:23 PM
QQQ is leaving off with a hesitant 30 min cycle upphase within the toppy daily cycle. My feeling is that we're seeing distribution here based on the intraday action and the daily cycle top.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  3:51:38 PM
The OIX oil index has slipped back to technical support at its simple 50-dma. This looks like a bullish entry point although I'd wait for a bounce. Better yet I'd wait for the OIX to trade over the 402 level. If this level of support (50-dma) breaks watch for the OIX to find more technical support at its simple 100-dma, where the sector bounced in May and August.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  3:49:07 PM
The BTK biotech index is now three days into a failed rally at the 540 resistance level. The MACD is nearing a new sell signal.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  3:47:49 PM
The three-day candlestick pattern on the INX Internet index looks like a bearish reversal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  3:41:20 PM
The TRAN approached Thursday's low, but did not yet breach it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  3:32:28 PM
Beginning at about 10:30, the advdec line had begun climbing, but at about 1:30, the advdec line has been trending down again. Still, the OEX remains rangebound.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  3:28:16 PM
The bounce from a higher low at 38.47 QQQ has turned the 30 min channel more decisively up, and the flattened 60 min channel will join in if the price breaks 38.68 for longer than 10 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  3:25:29 PM
Rambus (RMBS) $21.50 +14.27% ... quick little drop last 5 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  3:14:44 PM
Day trade lower bearish stop alert ... for the Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $33.50 .... to $33.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  3:12:23 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  3:11:12 PM
I'm back, with the OEX still inside the range in which it's traded since this morning's decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  3:04:31 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:55:21 PM
Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $33.42 -0.6% ... back at DAILY Pivot

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  2:50:38 PM
QQQ is back below 38.50 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  2:44:42 PM
The 30 min cycle channel is flattening from its early afternoon bounce, with support up to 38.40 and resistance now 38.72, while the 60 min channel is flattening from its downphase. This opposition of the two longer intraday cycles could result in sideways chop, and given the daily cycle oscillators' toppiness, I'd interpret that chop as the distribution range within a daily cycle top.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:44:34 PM
Day trade short alert .... for the Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $33.54 here, stop $33.64, target $33.15-$33.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  2:42:57 PM
Caught on the phone right now. Still waiting for a possible breakdown.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:38:21 PM
Rambus (RMBS) $22.46 +19.2% .... not a component of the SOX or SMH, but higher on earlier morning reports of favorable federal judge ruling defining terms of its patent dispute with Hynix.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:32:57 PM
Unusual SOX.X / SMH option activity .... I can't say that I see any unusual option activity, call or put in the SOX.X or SMH to explain the afternoon bid.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:31:38 PM
Dow-component Wal-Mart (WMT) is down 1.28% to $56.95 after reporting Q3 earnings that were in-line with estimates. The company reaffirmed its Q4 guidance.

Here's an excerpt from their press release:
Lee Scott, President and CEO said, "I am pleased to report another record quarter of sales and earnings. The economy continues to improve and we are well positioned for the holidays. With the help of our associates, I look forward to another record quarter and a successful holiday season."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  2:28:31 PM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 46.10- bouncing to 46.15 as I type with 2 mins to go in this session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:28:27 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:26:12 PM
I believe that Zebra Technology (ZBRA) is another business in the RFID-related business. Unfortunately the stock is getting hammered over rumors the company lost a major customer recently. ZBRA has denied it lost any significant customer but shares are down sharply in the last three sessions and still falling. (...well, at least part of their business is RFID)

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:23:11 PM
Graphics chip maker NVDA was started with a "buy" rating this morning by Wells Fargo but shares remain stuck under resistance at $19.00 and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/16/20,  2:22:27 PM
RFMD is up on the RFID application for drugs to prevent fakes. The feeling is this will lead to a faster acceptance of the RFID technology in other areas.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:21:28 PM
Smith Barney cut insurance stock Chubb (CB) to a "hold" this morning. The stock looks somewhat vulnerable to profit taking with the three-week rally from $64 to resistance at $75. The technicals are definitely beginning to waver.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:19:24 PM
The four-day rally in RF Micro Devices (RFMD) continues with today's 4.5% gain. The stock was upgraded to "neutral" by BAC this morning. Shares of RFMD are challenging resistance at $7.25 and its simple and exponential 200-dma's. The MACD just produced a new buy signal two days ago.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:17:25 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:16:56 PM
Applied Industrial Tech (AIT) is down 4% to $38.93 despite announcing a 3-for-2 stock split today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  2:16:10 PM
7200 tick SMA support lines up with confluence at 38.48-.50 QQQ. Bears are very close to getting their lower high below 38.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  2:14:48 PM
The OEX is coming down now to test the lower end of the consolidation range today. Bears want to see it break through.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:13:56 PM
Smaller rival Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) is up sharply the past three sessions hitting new two-year highs and challenging its 200-week moving average. Volume has been growing stronger on the current rally.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:11:44 PM
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) is up more than 6% today and breaking out over the $35.00 level hitting what appears to be new four-year highs. Lehman started coverage of XMSR with an "over weight" this morning.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:09:42 PM
CTI Molecular (CTMI) is up 31% to $11.57 and challenging resistance at the exponential 200-dma after reporting earnings this morning that beat estimates by 4 cents per share. The company also guided higher and the news prompted at least one upgrade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  2:08:29 PM
The only people who should still be in a bearish OEX play are those whose pre-entry plans included weathering a possible bounce from the 562.50-563 range. Fo far, the OEX has done nothing too alarming for bears. It hasn't even retraced more than 38.2% of the decline off yesterday's last five-minute high, turning down below the 38.2% retracement. However, this now-bear-flag-ish formation looks big in relationship to the decline, meaning that the swings through the flag are wider than bears would like to see. Conservative or nervous bears should have taken some or all money off the table--realizing they would limit their ability to participate in more downside but also that they'd take away the risk that a profitable position would turn unprofitable. Assessing your trading style is all part of making a plan pre-entry.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  2:07:28 PM
QQQ has stalled at 38.62 after reaching 38.67, just below combined channel resistance at 38.70. A failure here would constitute a lower high for the purpose of confirming the rollover in the intraday cycles and their bearishness within the toppy daily cycles. A close below 38.50 would result in a clean break lower on the daily chart, where preliminary daily cycle sell signals appear imminent but have not yet printed.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:07:24 PM
Google (GOOG) is down $10.20 or 5.5% to $174.64 as the Nov. 16th lock up expires and 39.1 million new shares hit the market.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:05:14 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  2:04:11 PM
Hmm... Triple A saying that 4.6 million people plan to fly somewhere for Thanksgiving this year. That's a 4% increase over last year. Over 37 million plan to travel more than 50 miles from home. Together both air and auto travel are expected to hit pre-9/11 levels for the first time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  2:01:23 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.62 -0.02% ... down just a penny.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  1:58:59 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 430.39 +0.18% ... inches green.

BIG test for bears here at WEEKLY R1.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  1:55:17 PM
One firm has downgraded Guidant (GDT) to a "sell" this afternoon but the stock is not reacting. Shares are up 13 cents and nearing resistance in the $67.00-67.50 range.

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  1:49:38 PM
S&P just lowered their debt rating on Merck (MRK).

 
 
  James Brown   11/16/20,  1:41:53 PM
Fidelity Natl Financial (FNF) has gapped up this morning and is currently up 9.4% to new all-time highs above $42.00 in spite of news that Raymond James downgraded the stock to a "market perform" from a "strong buy".

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  1:40:58 PM
The OEX threatens to fall back below Keltner resistance and the breakout point, threatening the likelihood that it can reach that potential upside target.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  1:39:02 PM
QQQ is rising toward the 38.70 channel resistance line. The short cycles are in gear with the 30 min cycle to the upside, but the 60 min hasn't yet deviated from its steady downphase. The going should start getting tougher from here to 38.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  1:38:22 PM
So far, no quick reversal, but no zoom higher, either, on the OEX. Tough moment, here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  1:35:52 PM
The OEX is breaking higher. Without a quick reversal, it looks possible that it may not rise to test 564.30-565.15.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  1:28:35 PM
There's an uptick in volume, and the 30 min cycle channel is moving up, but the current pop above 38.50 is far less energetic than I expected prior to the break. Rising 30 min channel resistance meets the descending 60 min channel top at 38.69 QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  1:28:26 PM
And the OEX attempts to break to the upside, too, following the cue of the USD. The OEX has not yet broken above the 563.45-ish top of the range in which it's been trading, and it's about to hit Keltner resistance, but it's clear that the push is to the upside, coming a little earlier than usual and apparently courtesy of the USD's push. The USD/JPY is just below resistance, too. Remember that we must watch the reaction to the push, and not just the push.

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/16/20,  1:26:57 PM
Linda it looks like your stop-running push is to the upside!

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/16/20,  1:26:14 PM
Thanks Linda... sellers at ES 1179, buyers at ES 1177 but if you back up and view the 5-min chart it looks like a descending triangle. Couple that with the Evening Star on the Daily Chart and the trend being firmly down after a flagpole rally I'll stick with a continuation of the trend (short) until proven otherwise. All bears need is a close below ES 1179 today and they will have a break of the (unsustainable IMO) short-term uptrend and a big fat Evening Star for the technicians to contemplate overnight. I would guess they will take more chips off the table before the whistle blows. I am trying to look past just today and avoid jumping in and out and risk being whipsawed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  1:23:18 PM
Maybe that guess was wrong in my 13:17 post. I'm watching currency markets, too, and the USD/JPY is trying to break to the upside after dropping from the post-PPI high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  1:17:05 PM
Well, Mark, you have a 50-50 chance of my being wrong, because I'm just never any good at guessing which way it's going to go, something I freely admit. I'd guess down, though, for the push, to see if dip-buyers are waiting. Pure guesswork.

No, wait! I guess up, to see if sellers are lurking. Seriously, today is one of those days that the Keltner charts give me no clues, as the OEX is balanced between support and resistance on those charts. I'll stick with my first guess, but I think the probability of either is about equally weighted.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  1:13:48 PM
The OEX's seven-minute chart shows next relatively strong nearby resistance just under 563.50. Hopefully, those bears who didn't want to risk a rise up to test broken support have already exited according to their pre-determined plans as to how they would deal with the 562.50-563 level. Now, the rest await a break out of the rough 562.20-563.45 range in which the OEX has traded at the bottom of this decline. An upside break would likely take the OEX up to retest broken support, so all remaining bears should assess their willingness to risk that test of broken support. A downside break would perhaps test 560.50-561.23. A possibility exists that OEX could even come down to retest the 558.25 level, the current site of a descending trendline off the November 5-10 highs, but I wouldn't set my sights too low just yet. There's strong potential support just below the OEX's current position. We just have to see what happens during today's stop-running push, if it occurs.

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/16/20,  1:12:42 PM
Linda your stop-running push has the potential to be the "Mother of all stop-running pushes" today. QUICK... tell me which way so I can make readers a pile of money! (I just love putting her on the spot because she is such a good sport)... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  1:12:14 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.37 -0.77% ... showing a little bullish life again after session low of $33.10.

VTSS $3.37 +5.62%, LSI $5.46 +3.6% percentage winner on breadth of 6 up, 1 unch and 13 down.

TXN $24.37 -1.81%, NSM 16.53 -1.48% and KLAC $45.12 -1.26% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  1:07:24 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  1:06:49 PM
QQQ is peeking above 38.50 for the first time since its 10AM break below- but volume has yet to confirm the move.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  1:03:16 PM
12:50 PM EST Fed funds and other futures. Using as a benchmark for the future.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/16/20,  1:02:07 PM
Dateline CNN Margaret Hassan, kidnapped director of CARE in Iraq has been killed, British official says.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  12:59:38 PM
The OEX hasn't quite confirmed that continuation-form regular H&S at the bottom of its decline. At least, I don't think it has. The neckline is difficult to define, and it now has two right shoulders. We should perhaps now consider that a symmetrical triangle at the bottom of the decline rather than a continuation-form H&S. Waiting for a break either direction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  12:53:24 PM
A slight uptick in the 30 min cycle channel here, still flat but on the verge of an upphase if QQQ can get above 38.50. Channel support is at 38.30, resistance 38.63.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  12:51:10 PM
On the 15-minute chart, Keltner support is firming from the current OEX position down to 561.44, but the OEX keeps being pressured lower by a Keltner line currently at 562.85. OEX bears would like to see continued 15-minute closes beneath that line.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  12:43:28 PM
December Fed Funds futures (ff04z) 97.88 -005% ... not much change since the October nonfarm payrolls were released earlier this month.

About a 47% chance of a 25 basis point rake hike at December 14 FOMC meeting.

PPI figures not getting much of a response.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  12:40:51 PM
Lehman 1-3 year iShares (SHY) $81.65 -0.02% ... pretty much right where they were when we dropped the put play in the MM Profiles.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  12:38:14 PM
The TRAN still has not dropped below Thursday's low, pausing just above that low. That continues the possibility that the TRAN is forming a rising three methods formation, typically bullish. The TRAN's daily CCI suggests that the TRAN is at or near a market top, but that possible rising three methods continues the possibility that there could be one more thrust higher. Market bears on any index want to see the TRAN cooperate and move to a low lower than Thursday's since the TRAN is so important as an indicator index.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  12:33:57 PM
The current range has that op-ex tractor beam feel to it. If the last few days' worth of the rally were the result of option writers hedging with long calls and long underlying positions, then the current narrow stall could be those same positions being protected. Or not- it's all guesswork. In any event, the 38.40-.50 QQQ range remains intact, and a high volume break of either end of the range should be good for some continuation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  12:30:09 PM
The OEX's action is consistent with a potential continuation-form H&S at the bottom of the day's decline, but such a formation has not yet been confirmed. That would probably require a drop below 562, although it's difficult to determine exactly where the neckline would be since it slopes steeply and I don't know at what point in time it might be crossed. We still just don't know whether the OEX will find support here and climb or will drop through this consolidation pattern. If it does drop, such patterns tend to form midway through a decline. Don't count on downside targets being met when a market has been trending strongly upward . . . unless the rally is over. We just don't know that yet, either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  12:28:05 PM
Continuous Crude Oil Contract ($WTIC) .. $1-box chart at this Link .... support $41, resistance $55.

Then a $0.50-box chart at this Link .... support around $42.50-$44.00 , resistance $47.50-$49.00.

Then the conventional $0.25-box chart at this Link with the bearish vertical count of $43.25 still in play. Support $45.00 , resistance $47-$48.

Hmmmm.... IF crude achieves its bearish vertical count of $43.25, then rebounds back toward $49, then fails from there, could set up a pretty big reverse/head shoulder pattern with an ascending neckline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  12:26:58 PM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 46.40. Gold is up 3.40 at 440.70, with HUI +1.98% at 241.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  12:20:28 PM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) .... 30-minute interval bar chart with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

Frist sign of strength on this chart looks to be something above the WEEKLY Pivot of $47.98. Will see how this fits, or doesn't fit with the supply/demand chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  12:17:38 PM
What at first looked like a potential inverse H&S at the bottom of today's decline could now be a potential continuation-form regular H&S. If it is, the OEX needs to turn around soon, not breaching this morning's 11:00 candle high of 563.41. I don't have great trust of continuation-form H&S's, but this should be watched. The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's at 563.89 and 563.78, respectively, should also we watched as potential resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  12:03:33 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  11:59:46 AM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $41.13 -2.74% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  11:58:23 AM
Mykrolis (MYK) $11.24 +5.14% Link .... jumps from $10.80 after guest analyst on CNBC discusses this "water stock's" key business segment serving the semiconductor industry.

Interesting stock to follow as it relates to the chips. Recent trade at $10.50 was a double top buy signal and has bullish vertical count building to $16.50.

Chips hit their high back in January, similar to MYK.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  11:53:41 AM
The OEX's action has negated the potential inverse H&S--good for bears--but hasn't negated the potential for a double-bottom formation. Each would have the same upside potential target, if confirmed, but Keltner resistance now gathers near 563.40, near the confirmation level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  11:47:27 AM
Stepping away for 30 mins here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  11:45:52 AM
QQQ bears got their failure at 38.50- now they need a break below the previous low of 38.34.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  11:31:51 AM
Watching the potential inverse H&S on the OEX's three-minute chart. A fall to a new low would negate the formation. A three-minute close above 563.50 looks as if it would confirm it. It has an upside target of about 564.60 if confirmed, so it would suggest that the OEX was attempting to rise back toward the supporting trendline from yesterday, retesting it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  11:30:34 AM
Another unsuccessful attempt on 38.50, but from a higher low. This looks like a possible bullish rising triangle. If so, we should see an upside break with approx. 10 minutes. A move below 38.44 will invalidate it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  11:18:07 AM
The OEX five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 563.99 and 564.20, near retracement levels of this morning's decline, so they might help pressure the OEX lower. Seen on a five-minute chart, the OEX's rise can be various taking the form of a bear flag or an inverse H&S, depending on your outlook.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  11:17:19 AM
QQQ has so far failed to clear 38.50, previously strong support and now acting as strong resistance. It's not over until a break back below 38.40, however. Look for a potentially directional move either above or below this current 10 cent range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  11:11:37 AM
So much for Keltner evidence that the OEX might drop to 561.50 or so before it bounces significantly. This bounce has the potential to take the OEX up to 564 or so, testing the 38.2% retracement of the decline off yesterday's last five-minute high. Those bears whose pre-determined plan for handling 562.50-563 did not include taking full or partial profits should now assess their willingness to stay in for a test of 564-564.40 before they know whether the OEX will roll down again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  11:11:19 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  11:04:43 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  11:00:50 AM
QQQ has exceeded the previous wavelet high and is now testing 38.48-.50 from below. The short cycle oscillators are lined up bullishly from oversold, but it will take a break above 38.50 to kick off their upphase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  10:59:21 AM
Buy program premium within last 5 minutes. I'm having some computer problems this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  10:53:28 AM
The OEX consolidates above the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the late-day Wednesday low. Those conservative traders worried about bounce potential could consider taking partial profits. I think the OEX may get pushed down toward 561.50 or so before it bounces significantly, but there's no guarantee of that, and Keltner evidence doesn't always follow through. If you're nervous, take some of the money off the table.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  10:46:34 AM
The declining 30 min cycle channel has support down to 38.30. The last wavelet failure was at a lower high below the previous one at 38.48, which confirms the ongoing weakness and sets up a trending move on the oversold short cycle oscillators.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  10:43:32 AM
The OEX has dropped so quickly today that Keltner lines have separated, making it difficult to ascertain where strongest resistance might lie on a Keltner basis. The 15-minute chart suggests that 563.96-564.08 might be first strong resistance. Bears would prefer to see 15-minute closes beneath that level, then. This chart suggests that 561.25-561.83 might be strong support and might stop the downward slide, at least temporarily. Remember that 561.23 is the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline, and so might have special significance. It has seemed to me that 563 has proven more important and I seem to remember that same impression from earlier this year, but the actual calculated Fib level is that 561.23 number.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  10:36:03 AM
Bonds remain surprisingly firm given the PPI data this morning, with TNX up 2.1 bps at 4.211%. QQQ continues to hold below 38.50 resistance, and the strength here appears to be the result of the oversold short cycle oscillators which are trying for a bounce. Gold is up to 441 currently, with silver up .034 at 7.609. Nymex crude is up .375 at 47.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  10:30:55 AM
So far, the OEX is doing a convincing job of finishing off an evening-star pattern. RSI has confirmed a H&S on the daily chart . . . if the OEX doesn't bounce big into the close. We're far, far from the close and bearish plays remain countertrend until proven otherwise.

The OEX has begun a bounce attempt exactly from the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the late-Wednesday low. A Fib bracket snapped on the OEX's decline off yesterday's last five-minute high shows the 38.2% retrace at 563.93 and the 50% at 564.37, so bears would like to see the OEX roll down from or below one of those levels.

Market bears would like to see the TRAN fall below last Thursday's low and stay there to undo the possibility that what looks bearish on the daily chart might actually be a bullish formation, a rising three methods candlestick formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  10:17:55 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  10:15:58 AM
So far, everything is going just as OEX bears might have scripted it. Now, there's a danger, though, as the OEX approaches that 562.50-563 zone, actually having pierced it already, that the OEX will bounce. Bears should have had their plan in mind already as to how they'd handle this level, as I warned about it several times, so perhaps your plan includes taking partial profits, narrowing stops, widening stops, or taking some other action. Bears most wish for a continued plummet through that 562.50-563 level, setting it up as potential resistance. Their second best wish would be for the OEX to find resistance from 563.75-564.00 on any bounce that occurs from above 562.50, and then to roll down again. Their third best choice would be a retest of the rising trendline established yesterday, now at about 564.70, and a rollover from there. Assess your willingness to weather each of those tests and decide now on your strategy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  10:14:16 AM
No weakness for gold or silver, up 3.30 at 440.60 and +.02 at 7.59 respectively. HUI is up 1.64% at 240.85, XAU +1.38% at 108.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  10:09:31 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  10:06:22 AM
The OEX attempts to steady, but it's uncertain yet whether it will be able to do so. Bears want to see it find resistance under 564.12 and roll down again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  10:04:33 AM
The OEX is plummeting straight toward 562.50-563. We should see a bounce sometime soon. If the OEX doesn't bounce fairly soon and bounce back above 564, it resets to a downside target of 560.45, according to Keltner evidence.

When the OEX does bounce, bears want to see a tight range of higher highs and higher lows--a bear flag--or other measured distribution-type formation rather than a quick "V" recovery.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  10:03:55 AM
Look for 38.50 and 38.58 to act as resistance on any bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  10:02:10 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  10:01:45 AM
38.50 has just cracked.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  10:00:48 AM
QQQ's at a low of 38.50 currently, testing key channel and confluence support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  9:59:56 AM
The Fed has just drained net 9.25B by adding 4.25B against the 5B overnight and 8.5B 4 day repos expiring today. That's a large net drain for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  9:53:14 AM
So far, the TRAN still holds above Thursday's low, with that low being 3574.19 and with the TRAN at 3589.69.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/16/20,  9:49:38 AM
VIX.X 13.30 -0.52% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.86, 13.12, Piv= 13.52, 13.78, 14.18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  9:47:56 AM
So far, the OEX is fulfilling bears' dreams. Make plans as to how you'll handle 562.50-563, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  9:44:15 AM
It looks to me as if the TRAN has completed a H&S on its daily CCI. However, the candles so far for the last few days looks a lot like a possible rising three methods bullish pattern. That's a first day that's a long white candle, with the next three days producing candles with small real bodies that stay within the range of the first day's long white candle. The fifth day--that would be tomorrow--is the breakout day, producing a tall white candle. Contradictory evidence, but it means that we have to consider the possibility that the TRAN might have at least one more thrust higher despite the CCI evidence. The CCI pattern is confirmed: the potential rising three methods is not. Today can undo that pattern if the TRAN falls beneath Thursday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  9:37:01 AM
The OEX approaches mid-channel support on the Keltner chart, at about 563.70-563.80. During the first retracement of the day, the OEX might bounce from the current level or from that mid-channel level, up to retest the broken rising trendline from yesterday, up near 564.85 now. Ideally, bears want to see the OEX roll over again from that test.

Keep repeating to yourself that until proven otherwise, any bearish trade is a countertrend trade. Protect profits as soon as possible. Have a plan in place for how you'll handle 562.50 if that should be approached.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  9:35:02 AM
If QQQ stays below 38.68 for another 10 minutes, we'll see the 30 min cycle channels roll over, creating a negative bias for QQQ. I'd be inclined to take it with a grain of salt above 38.50, but the longer intraday cycles will begin to shift to a more bearish stance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  9:33:07 AM
The OEX opened at the flat-line and declines. The day has only just begun, but this is so far just what new bears wanted to see.

The correlation between the dollar's performance and that of the equity markets isn't always a static one. The rally in 2003 occurred as the dollar sank. However, lately, equities have tended to trade on correlation with the dollar rather than in opposition. During the last 30 minutes, the dollar has shot up against the euro and the yen. Don't take this as a sign that equities are going to climb, too, as the currencies have been particularly volatile since the release of the PPI number, but do be aware and keep this on your radar screen.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  9:28:57 AM
30 and 60 min channel support are lined up at 38.50-.53 QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  9:24:55 AM
The premarket drop has yet to violate yesterday's lows, and appears insignificant so far. Bears need to see a break below 38.50 QQQ to suggest anything more than the little instantly-bought dips of recent weeks. The FNM news and the spike in the PPI look very bearish to me, as did the extremely low put to call ratios yesterday. But until the price begins to agree, these factors are of secondary importance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  9:24:53 AM
As I mentioned in my 22:23 post last night, we'll first be watching for an OEX open below the close--the first step in completing the third of a three-candle reversal signal. Ideally, the OEX would then move straight down from there, so those who want to risk a bearish entry at the open want first to see the OEX open below yesterday's close and then want to see a move down and not up. Since a first bearish target would be the 38.2% retracement of the move off Wednesday's late-day high, with that Fib level at about 562.50, remember that a gap-down opening wouldn't give much downside before that first target was hit. In the event that the OEX does gap significantly, it might be best to wait for a gap-fill attempt and rollover to enter, realizing that such an entry might never be offered. A move below 564.80 is a break below the triangular formation displayed on the chart linked to that 22:23 post.

Remember also that we have to consider these bearish entries as countertrend entries still. The uptrend hasn't yet broken. Signs exist that a rollover or prolonged sideways consolidation might be near, but "near" might be 10 points later to the upside, too, and you absolutely do not want to hold on, hoping, hoping that it will turn around. Be willing to be wrong, with "wrong" also meaning that you enter and the OEX dawdles sideways while your expensive bought-at-the-open option leaks premium. Know what you're risking. A "potential" reversal signal is just a possible one, and in a strong trend, sometimes the drop that completes the reversal signal is the only drop that's seen.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  8:37:53 AM
Session low for NQ and session high for gold, with QQQ down 19 cents at 38.64 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  8:31:10 AM
Session lows for equities and ten year bonds with TNX up 1.2 at 4.202%. Gold is up 1 to 438.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  8:30:37 AM
Headlines:

8:29am U.S. OCT. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX UP 1.7% V. 0.6% EXPECTED

8:29am RISE IN U.S. OCT. PPI LARGEST IN NEARLY 15 YEARS

8:29am U.S. OCT. CRUDE GOODS PRICES UP 4.3%

8:29am U.S. OCT. PPI INTERMEDIATE CORE PRICES UP 0.3%

8:29am U.S. OCT. PPI INTERMEDIATE PRICES UP 0.9%

8:29am U.S. PPI UP 4.4% Y-O-Y; CORE PPI UP 1.8% Y-O-Y

8:29am U.S. OCT. PPI FOODS PRICES UP 1.6%

8:29am U.S. OCT. PPI ENERGY PRICES UP 6.8%

8:29am U.S. OCT. PPI CORE RATE UP 0.3% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  7:54:35 AM
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage giant Fannie Mae missed a regulatory deadline Monday for filing its third-quarter financial results after its independent auditor KPMG refused to sign off on the report. Company shares fell in late trading as its accounting crisis deepened.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/16/20,  7:50:11 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1183.25, NQ 1560, YM 10542 and QQQ -.081 at 38.749. Gold is up .70 to 438, silver -.015 to 7.56, ten year notes +.093 to 112.54 and Nymex crude -.075 to 46.80.

We await the PPI and Core PPI at 8:30AM, est. +.6% and +.1% respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/16/20,  6:52:26 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei closed lower Tuesday night as the dollar weakened against the yen. Other Asian markets were mixed, but European markets all turn lower this morning. Our futures have declined, too. As of 6:46 EST, gold was up $1.00 and crude, up $0.03. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei zigged and zagged in early trading Tuesday, both above and below the flat-line level, but during the afternoon, it decided on a direction. That direction was down. The Nikkei closed lower by 65.82 points or 0.59%, at 11,161.75. Banking-related stocks built on gains made Monday, but techs and other exporters declined.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.07%, but South Korea's Kospi lost 0.65%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.10%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.34%. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, up 0.343 points or 0.03%.

Currently, all European bourses trade in the red. Western Europe's auto registrations disappointed, falling 3.5%. Among Italy, France, Germany and the U.K., only Germany's registrations rose. As had been hoped, Vodafone raised its dividend, also announcing a share buyback program when it reported earnings. The company extended yesterday's gains. Retailers have been mixed.

As of 6:46 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 25.10 points or 0.52%, to 4,778.00. The CAC 40 had fallen 11.94 points or 0.31%, to 3,809.03. The DAX had fallen 5.54 points or 0.13%, to 4,128.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/15/20,  10:45:06 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/15/20,  10:23:56 PM
Monday's trading on the OEX created a doji with the open and close just above Friday's tall white candle. That's the second of a potential reversal signal, so tomorrow we'll watch for a potential open below Monday's close and a move down from there. We have the early November example before us, however, in which potential reversal signals marched across the chart until the OEX shot up higher. Each dip was met by buying and each rise by selling until buyers overwhelmed sellers and the OEX climbed again. Any traders entering bearish positions should remain aware that the trend remains up until proven otherwise, and bearish positions should be considered countertrend trades, although I see the potential for a bigger retracement, just as many others do. Here's a chart that shows potential upside and downside breakout points: Link

Bulls should also be aware that an upside breakout sees the OEX move into a congestion zone from earlier in the year, and that gains might be expected to slow. The OEX's daily rise and CCI both show a potential for a H&S, although neither has confirmed such a formation yet. A confirmation of such CCI and RSI formations sometime precede a rollover by a day or so. Those formations could still be rejected, but bulls and bears alike should watch them.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/15/20,  7:41:19 PM
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