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  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  5:21:02 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  5:08:32 PM
AMAT (Reuters) - AMAT, the largest maker of chip-making tools, on Wednesday warned that new orders, revenue and profit per share in the current quarter would all be short of most Wall Street expectations.

The company forecast a 35 percent drop in new orders in the current quarter from the quarter just ended. The company also said it expected revenue to drop 20 percent to 23 percent, with earnings of 15 cents to 16 cents a share, both below analyst expectations.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  5:00:16 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $34.30 +2.29% .... now ticking by at $34.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  4:59:40 PM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.34 +3.46% ... now back lower at $16.95

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:53:20 PM
Alert - AMAT warning earnings and revenues will be down as much as -25% to -35% for current quarter.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:27:31 PM
NFLX raising guidance

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:22:54 PM
MMS earnings = +0.47, est +0.49 rev lower, guidance lower

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  4:22:14 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $34.30 +2.29% ... higher at $34.45. Today's regular session high was $34.72 (BLUE #8)

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:21:59 PM
CRM earnings = +0.02, est +0.01 guidance higher

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  4:20:57 PM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.34 +3.46% .... higher at $17.58. Today's regular session high was $17.52.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:14:53 PM
AMAT (Reuters) - Applied Materials, the largest producer of chip-making equipment, reported a sharply higher quarterly profit on Wednesday on stronger demand for advanced manufacturing tools.

Earnings in the fiscal fourth quarter ended October 31 were $455 million, or 27 cents a share, compared to a year-earlier profit of $15 million, or 1 cent per share.

Sales rose to $2.20 billion from $1.22 billion in the same quarter last year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  4:11:07 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity summarized in the following table. The bullish position in Sun Microsystems (SUNW) was profiled in yesterday's extended session, but closed out at day trader's target earlier today. Table of today's trade at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:10:26 PM
MDT earnings = +0.44, est +0.45 revenue light

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:07:51 PM
ISSC earnings = +0.37, est +0.29

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:07:09 PM
HOTT earnings = +0.27, est +0.27

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:06:19 PM
LDG earnings = +0.17, est +0.15

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:05:27 PM
MGAM earnings = +0.24, est +0.23, guiding lower

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:04:44 PM
MW earnings = +0.38, est +0.35

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  4:01:28 PM
Alert - AMAT earnings = +0.27, est +0.26
Some customers cautions on new orders

AGIL earnings = +0.01, est +0.01
PETM earnings = +0.24, est +0.24
INTU earnings = -0.23, est -0.27 guidance lower

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  3:59:08 PM
Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 117.83 +1.54% Link ... looks to close smack-dab on its 21-day SMA. 50-day SMA juuuuust higher at 118.52.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  3:57:31 PM
December Crude Oil futures (cl04z) $46.79 (30-minute delayed) down 5 cents in early trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  3:54:57 PM
The OEX does bounce from the 564 level, moving up to test the former descending trendline off last Friday's high. It looks unlikely that we'll see the test of the 562 level today.

So what do we think about the OEX's action today? Here's a recap. The OEX has confirmed RSI and CCI H&S's on its daily chart. That signals bulls that a trend change may soon be underway. The OEX attempted a push out of the recent consolidation pattern and was hit with strong selling. That's in the bear's favor, too. However, the OEX appears to end the day squarely in the middle of that recent consolidation zone. This is no breakdown. Not yet. Maybe it's one in the making, but we can't be sure yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  3:53:22 PM
Done. Still out with router woes.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  3:53:13 PM
Earnings after the close:

CRM est +0.01
MDT est +0.45
MMS est +0.49
LDG est +0.15
AGIL est +0.01
AMAT est +0.26
HOTT est +0.27
ISSC est +0.29
INTU est -0.27
MGAM est +0.23
PETM est +0.24
TTEK est -0.14

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  3:52:22 PM
VERITAS (VRTS) is up 4.25% as it breaks out over resistance near $22.50. Watch the exponential 200-dma directly overhead.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  3:50:46 PM
BRCM is breaking out of its three-month consolidation. Shares just pushed through resistance in the $30.00-30.50 range. The stock is still challenging its simple 100-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  3:46:56 PM
Antivirus software maker Symantec (SYMC) isn't showing much weakness. The stock appears to be coiling for a bullish breakout over resistance at $62.00. Shares split 2-for-1 on Dec. 1st.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  3:45:43 PM
Biotech stock BIIB continues to churn in its trading range but shares just broke down through its simple 200-dma. Its MACD has rolled over into another sell signal again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  3:37:35 PM
The TRAN is below 3600, but not much below it. Roughly in the middle of the recent 3570-3630 trading range, it's at 3596.48 as I type. There's still the possibility of an inverse H&S (60-minute chart) at the top of its climb, but it doesn't really matter whether we consider that formation an inverse H&S or an almost rectangular consolidation pattern. We still need to watch for a breakout either direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  3:34:32 PM
The OEX climbed a little higher than the 565.40 level at which I expected it to find resistance too strong, but now drops from that level. As I suspected it might do, it's found at least temporary support at 563.75-564, having dropped toward 564. It looks as if it could again attempt to climb, perhaps back toward 564.90-565.40, but if so, it needs to do so quickly, because it's in danger of plummeting straight toward 562.20.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/17/20,  3:25:31 PM
Linda I have not mentioned the TRIN in over an hour because I have not had charts for that long. This is not good.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  3:19:56 PM
Perhaps Jane has already mentioned the trend of the TRIN today. It's up, but the TRIN's level is still far from bearish, at 0.71 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  3:15:26 PM
The DJUSHB, the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index, has erased almost all of today's gain. At 703.57, it is about six points above yesterday's close, but 10 points below today's high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  3:14:55 PM
December Crude (cl04z) settled up 73 cents, nearly reversing yesterday's 76-cent decline, to finish up 1.58% at $46.84.

Need to go back and check, but if memory serves me correct, we saw something similar to today's trade in last week or two on a Wednesday report.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  3:11:00 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  3:10:53 PM
The OEX is bouncing, but is doing so in a kind of back-and-forth way that looks bear-flag-ish.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  3:09:04 PM
FR Board: Testimony of Senior Associate Director Biern
The Bank Secrecy Act and the USA Patriot Act Link

 
 
  Jim Fabyan   11/17/20,  3:08:17 PM
Even with this drop the NQ has not closed below 1564 on a 5 min bar. That doesn't mean it can't, but there is definite support there.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  3:05:23 PM
QQQ testing 39.10 from below. Support should now act as resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  3:04:28 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:51:31 PM
The OEX looks as if it's going to find resistance too tough near the 565.40 level, but I'm still worried (on bears' behalf) about a possible bounce from the top of yesterday's congestion zone. The Keltner channels' configuration suggests that it won't be a problem, but sometimes Keltner channels reconfigure themselves, perhaps after a prolonged consolidation at a certain level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:44:49 PM
The TRAN tests 3600.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:39:38 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:36:00 PM
The OEX now looks vulnerable down to 562.25 or so, but we should probably expect a bounce near 563.75-564.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  2:33:54 PM
30 min channel support is catching up to the price drop, with 30 and 60 min support currently lined up at 38.90 QQQ. That level will continue to drop unless price bounces back above 39.10 within the next few minutes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  2:30:10 PM
No weakness in gold, which is up 4.80 at 445.30 here on 2423 e-mini contracts currently. Silve is holding at 7.665, with HUI up 1.85% and XAU +1.54%. Crude oil is heading for a close at 46.825 currently with 1 minute left to go.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:28:43 PM
The OEX now tests the descending trendline off Friday's high. Want-to-be bears would like to see a bounce now into a lower high, but I don't know if they're going to get that entry.

Want-to-be bulls should be cautious when considering new entries because, although this is a likely point, the decline was too precipitous to suit a bull's tastes. This wasn't a measured bull-flag-ish type pullback.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:26:49 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Have now sold four (4) of the long SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  2:26:48 PM
A much lower price and wavelet high is printing here on the failure, with a test of 38.90 coming up as I type. A print below 38.82 shoud see acceleration and set up an assault on the top of yesterday's range at 38.64. Dontcha love op-ex week?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:25:00 PM
The SOX has dropped below its 200-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:23:39 PM
The TRAN is certainly looking triple-top-ish on the 15-minute chart. However, if you flip that over and think about it another way, that could be an inverse H&S forming at the top of a climb. The TRAN is just above 3600 support now, and we can probably expect a bounce attempt. If the TRAN does bounce and move up through the day's high, we'll have our answer. If it doesn't bounce or if it does bounce and then rolls down, and falls below yesterday's low, the formation will be negated, and we'll have a difference answer. A more bearish one.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  2:19:48 PM
Note the key outside reversal candle for the TNX, with the daily cycle oscillators on preliminary sell signals. The higher high and lower low, if TNX closes here, suggests a new daily cycle downphase for TNX/upphase for ten year treasuries just starting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:17:38 PM
Careful, OEX bears. The OEX now approaches the descending trendline off Friday's high. This would be a likely spot for a bounce attempt. Bears would like to see a continued plummet right through that line. Without such action, however, what they'd like to see is a bounce into a lower high and a rounding down from there.

Bulls, if the OEX can't maintain support from 565-565.40, it looks vulnerable to a decline to 563.65 or maybe even 562.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:14:39 PM
The OEX drops straight toward the 565.40-ish downside target predicted by Keltner charts, now trying to firm up a little above it. Although I wish I'd had the courage, despite that TRIN level, to shout "go short now," my main purpose earlier was in warning bulls what might be in store, and quickly. The reason I follow the TRAN so closely is that its actions sometimes precede the action in other indices, and I use it as a kind of indicator index. When it dropped so quickly after my 13:17 post about an imminent drop, I knew some of the other indices were vulnerable to the same kind of action.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:13:10 PM
Sell Program Premium

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  2:13:02 PM
4.14% support for the TNX is being tested as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  2:11:19 PM
QQQ has just exceeded the lower 30 min keltner support and is reaching for 60 min support conveniently located at 38.90. The 30 min channel is in the process of catching up to the move, rolling over as I type. Look for 39.10-.20 to act as resistance on any bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:10:26 PM
Swing trade sell option alert .... selling four (4) of the SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ) at this bid of $2.95.

SMH $34.40 +2.59% here.

Brings entire position to net long of 4 calls, no covered calls as they were closed out earlier today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:08:13 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:06:09 PM
No bounce near 567 for the OEX. It may plummet right to the 565.40-ish zone. Those bears who might have followed my gut instincts or their own and entered on a retest of 567.90 are doing okay right now, but should know ahead of time how they'll handle 565.40, if approached. Bulls, that 13:58 post's main purpose was to warn of potential downside to 565.40, so I hope that it allowed some time to prepare your stategy and decide if you wanted to hang on through that test.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:05:40 PM
Crude Oil making a session high at $46.80

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:03:39 PM
Sell Program Premium first of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  2:02:29 PM
The OEX does turn down where Keltner charts suggested that it would. It looks vulnerable down toward 565.40, but may see a bounce attempt near 567.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  2:02:03 PM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 55.40 -1.52% ... session low. Quick little drop last 20 minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:58:18 PM
With the SOX still above its 200-sma and with TRIN still at a lowly 0.58, I'm not going to be suggesting any bearish plays. However, I again note that the OEX looks vulnerable to a pullback, perhaps after testing the 567.92-568.25 level. Such a pullback could be a minor one only, perhaps down toward 565.40, and perhaps an even shallower pullback. Bulls should be assessing their willingness to hang on if such a pullback should occur. Bears--well, you're on your own. My gut says short-term bearish, but as I've been cautioning, any bearish plays should be considered countertrend, and there's just not a lot of evidence to support a countertrend play right now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  1:50:14 PM
Silver is sitting at a session high of 7.679, gold 50 cents away at 445. Ten year bonds are also firm, as are equities. Even crude oil has joined the party, up .75 here at 46.85. For those meditating on the intermarket relationships, this is a textbook application of the binary dollar trade, with the only red symbol being the USD Index. Prices are higher because their unit of measure, the dollar, is lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:49:10 PM
The OEX looks vulnerable to a deeper plunge, according to Keltner evidence, but perhaps not until it retests the 568 level. Take this comment with a grain of salt, however, as TRIN suggests no such thing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:46:23 PM
If you're not reading the Futures side of the Monitor as well as the options side, and especially if you're investing in tech-related stocks, you might read Marc's 13:34 post about AMAT's options in relationship to tonight's earnings report.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:44:19 PM
The OEX has also confirmed its H&S on top of its steep climb today. The OEX is not dropping quite so quickly toward its downside target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:43:00 PM
The TRAN has begun dropping, as Keltner evidence suggested it would do. (See my 13:17 post.) Keltner charts had suggested that it would drop and would begin doing so at any moment, and by the next five-minute candle that drop had begun. The TRAN has confirmed a H&S on its five-minute chart. The downside target is 3612-ish, and the TRAN drops quickly toward that target, with the TRAN at 3616.67 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  1:23:30 PM
The 30 min cycle channel seems to have peaked at 3940, currently going flat. This would set up the QQQ for a likely rollover, but for the still rising 60 min channel. The opposition of these two cycles can result in long ranges near the top, such as we've been seeing since the initial blast up. For that reason, bears are best to wait for a break of 38.90, with first support at 39.10. A bounce from either of those levels would obviously be very bullish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  1:22:47 PM
Semi HOLDRS (SMH) $34.72 +3.5% ... BLUE #8

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  1:21:34 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:17:01 PM
At least on the TRAN's five-minute chart, Keltner resistance now looks far stronger than support. Supporting lines separate widely beneath the TRAN, forming only the filmiest of netting to catch it while resistance appears to firm. We've seen the TRAN break through similar resistance configurations--it makes a habit of it at times--but it looks to me as if the TRAN is due for a retracement and one that might begin at any time. As the TRAN goes, sometimes so go other indices. Be careful.

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/17/20,  1:11:13 PM
Linda I had the same thoughts. The "we support a stronger dollar" policy has become a joke... all sizzle and no steak.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  1:10:39 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:08:21 PM
Jonathan, in reference to your 13:05 post, I shook my head this morning when Snow appeared to have chastised European ministers, saying that Europe had to do its part in reducing our deficit by increasing consumer demand to buy our products. He didn't appear to do the dollar any favors during that particular speech.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:06:41 PM
I'd like to be suggesting that bears could hazard a new entry attempt here, as the OEX perhaps rounds down into a right shoulder at the top of its climb, but TRIN hasn't budged, the SOX remains above its 200-sma, and the VXO hasn't broken out of this morning's consolidation zone. I just can't, as there's too much bullishness remaining, too much chance of a sudden zoom higher. I do note, however, that the TRAN is perhaps completing a H&S on its five-minute chart, and that it's now erased its breakout signal on that chart, now facing strong resistance just above its current level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  1:05:59 PM
LONDON - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow reassured critics Wednesday that America is dealing with its huge budget and trade deficits, but discounted any suggestions of official intervention to prop up the ailing U.S. dollar.

Even as the dollar hit an all-time low against the euro, Snow repeated the U.S. position: The administration is committed to a strong dollar, and looks to the market to set its value.

"We believe in open, competitive currency markets," Snow said in a speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. "We think the world functions best with free trade and free capital flows. Nobody has ever devalued their way to prosperity."

Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  1:03:46 PM
Looks like I forgot to report on the day's open market ops from the Fed as I did battle with my broken router. The Fed announced a 3B overnight repo to replace the 4.25B expiring for a net drain of 1.25B for the day.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  1:02:27 PM
Looks like technical support at the 50-dma is going to hold up for the OIX oil index. Now energy bulls just need to see the OIX trade over the 402 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  1:02:10 PM
The OEX is probably now at the upper limit considered appropriate for a right shoulder for its potential H&S. The neckline slopes upward, so the right shoulder might be almost at the same height as the head. Almost, but not above. Stay tuned for either a rounding over into the right shoulder or for a bounce higher and rejection of the formation. OEX bulls can feel cheered by such a rejection. If the OEX begins rounding over into a right shoulder, they should begin assessing their willingness to weather a dip toward the downside target near 566.90, and watching for a potential break through the neckline. Remember that such formations can be rejected after neckline touches or minimal violations.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  1:01:18 PM
Meanwhile the BTK biotech index is not participating in this rally. The BTK has been down the previous three sessions and is currently producing a failed rally at the 530 level in today's session. The MACD is nearing a new sell signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  1:00:51 PM
Semi HODRs (SMH) $34.61 +3.19% ... session high and BLUE #7 here.

For those using the spreadsheet to get their levels, plug in $34.50 and $34.61 as if these were a first 5-minute bar.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  12:59:47 PM
The DRG drug index has pushed through its simple 50-dma but is still consolidating under resistance at the 310 level.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  12:57:54 PM
The rally today has pushed the DDX disk drive index up 3.9% and through resistance at the 110 level and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/17/20,  12:54:05 PM
Here are 3 more charts: the GSA, GSO & SOX. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  12:53:24 PM
SMH option action .... Dec. $37.50 calls heavy at 20,186 : 1,137, and Nov. $35 call 20,081 : 81,643.

Most active put is #9 of most active with the Nov. $35 1,680:16,136.

Will note that today's 5-MRT would have BLUE #6 at $34.50, with BLUE #12 at $34.94.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  12:51:25 PM
The OEX rises again--into a right shoulder or into a new high? Watch the three- and five-minute charts.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  12:49:00 PM
The short cycles are flatlined in overbought, trending without a twitch within the dominant 30 and 60 min cycle upphases. Above 39.10, it's best to ignore them completely. TNX has squeezed lower, currently -6 bps at 4.148%. 4.14% is key support on this move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  12:47:15 PM
That gap on the second SMH chart that Tab included (last chart on his 12:40 post), looks like a breakaway gap, doesn't it? That's a gap that occurs as prices break out of a consolidation or other pattern. They're seldom filled, and I note that it was a gap, however, small, above the 200-ema, too. The gap seemed to confirm an inverse H&S-ish formation on that chart. Yet, complicating all this good news is that larger gap from July, with the SMH now testing that gap. Top-of-the-gap resistance can be strong, but I would bet on a push up to test the 200-sma just overhead just because it's so close. However, the SOX hesitates at its 200-sma, and it may be the SOX's behavior that determines what happens with the SMH, too. I don't think the SOX's chart looks nearly so bullish, despite today's breakout above the rising wedge. Interesting chart, Tab.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/17/20,  12:40:34 PM
Some observations.

Watching that $45.50 level on the $WTIC: Link MUR again testing 100-ema.

Back on 10/7/04 1:17pm, I presented an annotated chart on the $USD, today I've updated with my observations: Link Mentioned on CNBC that the USDEUR 130 level was a key level: Link

Several links for energy related data: Link Link Link Link Link Link

Volatility LOW!!! Look at the $VXN...making new lows.

Update from 10/22/04 7:25am MM post on SMH. See attached charts. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  12:38:59 PM
Utility Index (UTY.X) 365.94 -0.45% ... only sector in the red. May be seeing some investors shift from "safe" to "more risk/growth" oriented investments.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  12:35:26 PM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 110.60 +4.16% .... today's gains has the DDX.X ramping back above its 200-day SMA.

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 443.31 +3.66% breached its 200-day SMA (441.84) earlier this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  12:34:06 PM
Swing trade covered call close out alert ... closing out all six (6) of the SMH Dec. $35 Calls (SMH-LG) at the offer of $0.95. (these were sold on 11/10/04 for $0.30).

SMH $34.55 +3.04% here.

High probability that stocks close at their highs of the session, whatever that may be, by today's close.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  12:32:56 PM
The merger news between Kmart and Sears has given shares of Martha Stewart Omni Living (MSO) a big boost. MSO is up 15.6% to $20.18.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  12:31:28 PM
The 30 min cycle oscillators have reached overbought territory without any sign of rollover yet, while the 60 min oscillators continue to point north, still below overbought territory. The 30 min cycle channel is flattening, but given the oscillator setup I'd be very skeptical of any selling above 39.10- bears will need to see a break below 38.90 to rule out the likelihood of an intraday trending move and the false signals it would produce.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  12:30:30 PM
The rally continues for retailer Federated Dept Stores (FD). The stock is up four weeks in a row and has broken out to new all-time highs in the last few days.

FD, like the RLX index, looks very overbought.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  12:28:26 PM
Watch for a possible H&S to form at the top of the OEX's climb, with a neckline at about 567.90, which means the OEX should still bounce into a right shoulder, even if a H&S is to form. However, watch for two other possibilities: a zoom to a new high that would negate the formation and a drop straight through the neckline to the downside target of about 566.75. Everyone recognizes H&S formations now. More and more often, they just dispense with the whole right-shoulder thing.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  12:21:58 PM
Oil and natural gas producer PetroChina Co (PTR) is up 1.4% and challenging resistance at the $55.00 level. A breakout here could lead a run toward $60 or its all-time highs near $63.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  12:19:33 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  12:12:33 PM
FWIW, the OEX has trouble maintaining the breakout status on the 15-minute Keltner chart, and on this swing high, Keltner-style bearish divergence is apparent.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  12:10:45 PM
The SOX has pushed above the 200-sma, as others might already have noted. Bulls don't want to see it drop back below that average now, and especially don't want to see it break back into the rising wedge in which it had traded through several months, with the top line now at about 432. There's no sign of any of that happening so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  12:07:05 PM
Session high for ten year bond futures here, with TNX now down 5.4 bps or 1.28% at 4.154%, testing the 4.14%-4.16% line.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  12:06:43 PM
The dollar is plummeting again. That shouldn't be good for equities in light of increased inflation that's deemed to be mostly due to higher paid-for-in-dollar energy prices, but that probably depends on what happens with crude costs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  12:03:57 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:59:47 AM
Some time ago, I commented that the VXO was close to confirming an inverse H&S (60-minute chart), suggesting that it might move higher, a bearish move for equities. The VXO did confirm that inverse H&S by gapping higher on 11/08, but subsequently fell back, reaching a lower low. That lower low formed a head for a larger potential H&S, with the original H&S now the left shoulder. The current drop in the VXO could be forming the right shoulder. There was bullish divergence as the head was formed. Watch for another reversal in the VXO as a sign that markets might be reaching at least a short-term top. Although the VXO is bouncing during the current 60-minute period, I don't know that I'd call that a reversal just yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  11:59:42 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  11:58:22 AM
Bulls may want to watch ONYX Pharmaceuticals (ONXX). The drug stock has rallied back from its lows and is nearing resistance at the bottom of its October gap down. A move over $31.20 would break into the gap.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  11:56:09 AM
Session high fro silver here, +1.12% at 7.678 with QQQ holding its 1.72% gain at 39.25. The narrow range here continues to drift higher, classic flagpole rally action. The 30 min cycle channel continues to climb, up to 39.40 currently.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  11:52:44 AM
Dow-component Altria Group (MO) is up 4.5% to $56.84 and breaking out from its eight-day trading range. The stock is nearing resistance at its all-time highs in the $58-59 range.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  11:50:18 AM
Some news for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) today. SIRI will be available in 2005 Mercedes. Plus, SIRI will begin offering a palm-sized radio through Target (TGT), who will offer a $25 gift card with each purchase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:47:17 AM
The OEX is still in breakout mode on the seven-minute Keltner chart. The line that delineates the breakout zone is at 567.68, with further support closer to 567. Those in bullish trades--more congratulations to you--should continue to follow the OEX higher with their stops.

The drop yesterday morning, sideways trading during the day, and then zoom up this morning formed a head for a potential continuation-form inverse H&S, with the OEX dispensing with the right-shoulder formation and just zooming up. I don't trust continuation-form inverse H&S's to always meet their upside target and particularly when they're not classic in formation, but this one would have had an upside target of 569.40 or slightly lower (because the neckline descends) if it had formed that shoulder and then confirmed the formation. That means that bulls probably need to have a profit-protecting plan in mind from the current level up to 570.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  11:46:00 AM
OI call play QCOM is up 2.54% and breaking out over the $40.00 mark and its simple 20, 40 and 50-dma's.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  11:44:59 AM
OI call play IBM is up 1.7% to $96.51 getting a boost from HPQ's earnings last night.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  11:44:02 AM
Swing trade raise bullish stop ... for those same three (3) SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ) to $2.85.

Bidding $2.95 with SMH $34.47 +2.77%. SMH approaching its conventional 38.2% retracement of $34.64 and 200-day SMA $35.20.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  11:44:00 AM
OI call play EBAY is up 2.18% to crack the $110 level and hit new all-time highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/17/20,  11:43:27 AM
OI call play DHR is up 2.38% and breaking out over minor resistance at $58.00 to hit new all-time highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  11:39:39 AM
Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $65.13 +1.63% .... new 52-weeker here. Level #4 violated to upside. #5 just ahead at $66.26.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  11:30:38 AM
As could be expected, the daily cycle oscillators have reverted to an overbought uptick, qualifying this move as a trending overbougth move in the daily timeframe. This puts my cautions about waiting for a confirmed breakdown into context- in a trending move, it's necessary to be more patient than usual because there will be more, rather than less, false sell signals. On the daily chart, QQQ has bollinger resistance at 39.44, just above 30 min Keltner resistance of 39.35.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:28:45 AM
The OEX's weekly Keltner chart suggests a possibility of the OEX reaching toward 576.91 (not necessarily today, of course).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  11:27:02 AM
Alert! .... XCI.X 720 +2% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:26:35 AM
The TRAN broke above the top of the 3620-3625 consolidation zone and now inches up toward those recent 60-minute highs in the 3627.50-ish levels, with the TRAN at 3627.22 as I type. Note: Upside breakout as I type, to 3628.93. So far, it's not getting slapped back, either, but watch for that possibility, as the TRAN tends to overrun targets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:23:54 AM
A minimally higher high for the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:16:01 AM
The SOX still hovers just beneath its 200-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:14:21 AM
The OEX avoided a confirmation of a lower high on the three-minute chart, but perhaps now is forming a triangle at the top of its range on that chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:13:25 AM
I scrolled back through the TRAN's chart to see how it tends to behave after a 60-minute zoom higher of the 50-100-point range. Evidence was mixed. Over the last few months, the TRAN has tended to climb after such a zoom, perhaps after consolidating for a few 60-minute candles, but previous to that, it tended to drop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  11:11:59 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  11:11:02 AM
Session high for ZN bonds, with TNX -2.4 bps at 4.185%. 4.14%-4.16% is support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:06:42 AM
If the OEX's climb this morning looks unsupported, the TRAN's positively teeters. However, the TRAN consolidates near the top of its day's range. I'm waiting for a break either direction out of that mostly 3620-3625 consolidation range, but it hasn't happened yet. The TRAN has two recent 60-minute highs at 3627.38 and 3627.53, with the TRAN currently at 3622.90, so this is obviously strong resistance for the TRAN and possible triple-top territory.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  11:06:01 AM
Gold is holding up solidly, +3.40 at 443.90 on decent volume of 1530 December emini contracts. HUI is up 2.3% at 246.42, XAU +2.02% at 110.87. Bond remain firm as well, TNX -2.1 bps at 4.187%. The 30 and 60 min cycle upphases for QQQ are still firm, with the 30 min oscillators not yet in overbought territory. Pricewise, bulls want to see 39.10 hold to continue the short cycle trending move currently in progress.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  11:05:06 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  11:00:22 AM
The OEX's three-minute chart shows a potential lower high, to be confirmed on a move below 567.16. We can presume support at Friday's high of 566.64, however, as well as at the descending trendline off that high, at about 565.65 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:58:40 AM
Oops. Dollar dropping again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:57:34 AM
Since the release of crude inventories, the dollar has been trying to bounce from the lows hit just before that release. The bounce in the dollar (although looking like an oversold bounce only, so far) may be mitigating the effects of the disappointment in crude inventories and the high CPI. Just a guess.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:55:50 AM
Sun Micro (SUNW) $5.35 +7.86% ... after bounce from BLUE #2.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:53:50 AM
VIX.X 13.02 -1.5% ... Daily Pivot levels ... 12.88, 13.04, Piv= 13.56 13.51, 13.82.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:53:32 AM
I'm watching the OEX's seven-minute Keltner chart. On that time period's chart, the OEX reached the Keltner line that represented a breakout and bounced from it, preserving the breakout on that chart. If you're in a bullish position (congratulations, first), continue to follow the OEX higher with your stops. A fitted retracement bracket, fitted to the zoom higher, indicates that the OEX could have reached or be near a short-term top. This is far from an exact science, and there was minimal retracement to "fit" to that bracket, but the possibility remains.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  10:50:22 AM
Back again, now with an RMA number from the poor tech I kept on the phone.

QQQ took the moonshot that the persistent Keltner breach was suggesting, with 30 min channel support up to 39.25 QQQ. The 60 min channel bound is well below at 38.95. I urge bears who don't "believe" this move to recall the 2003 rally. The move "feels" wrong because it's most likely the result of the same dollar weakness that is rallying foreign currencies, precious metals and bonds this morning. If the USD Index chart looks weak to you, then equities are likely to benefit from that same weakness.

Support beneath this move is now 38.97.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/17/20,  10:48:24 AM
I like to look at the long-term trend and previous yearly charts of the indicies. I presented some charts this summer and before the election to Linda and thought they'd be worth taking a look at once again. Two are before the election of the $RUT & $NDX. Another chart show the similarities to the Nikkei and the last 2 charts are of the DJIA. Specifically during the period of rising rates '66 to '82 which held the Dow range bound. Also, '81 to '89 where rate declined and the Dow rallied. With the PPI # released Monday, we got the first real sign of "INFLATION", could this mean several range-bound year ahead for the markets? Link Link Link Link Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:47:49 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Note: SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ) raising of a stop on three (3) using first-in/first-out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:36:16 AM
Day trade long closed out alert day trade bulls should be exited in Sun Micro (SUNW) $5.30 +7.03% ... as stock exceeded bullish target of $5.35 with trading at $5.37.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:33:49 AM
The OEX created a breakout signal on the 15-minute chart, but now breaks back inside the Keltner line that signals the breakout. It's possible that the OEX will now retreat to test the descending trendline off Friday's high, testing it to see if it holds as support.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  10:30:17 AM
Alert - EIA Oil and Gas Inventories = Crude +800kb, gas -400kb, distillate -1 mb. All numbers well below estimates for a +2.3MB build in crude stocks. (last 291.5 MB)

API Crude +3 MB, distillate about the same as the other survey

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:29:55 AM
After breaking above its 200-ema yesterday, the SOX has zoomed up to the 200-sma today, and tests it now. That average is at 441.83, with the SOX at 440.29 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:27:54 AM
This rally so far continues to mimic the OEX's rally from mid-December into January's high at which point the OEX began that prolonged almost-two-month consolidation. It started in the same 522-ish zone, zoomed straight through the same prices, consolidated last week right where the OEX had consolidated in early January before the last push higher, and now pushes up into that last consolidation zone. Sure hope it doesn't repeat that almost two-month consolidation period. Perhaps we should all be looking into some Mike Parnos style plays?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:23:46 AM
The OEX is into a zone that produced choppy trading and almost two months of congestion earlier this year.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:20:07 AM
WMT hasn't reacted well to the S and KMRT merger, plummeting from a high of $57.35 today to a low of $55.90. The OEX hasn't seemed to care, obviously. WMT tries to climb now, at $56.25 as I type. WMT stock might also be affected by those crude inventories number, as WMT shoppers tend to be adversely affected by higher gasoline costs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:19:52 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $85.00 +4% Link ... trade gets stock's PnF chart back on a buy signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:18:33 AM
Swing trade place profit stop alert .... Place a profit stop on three (3) of the SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ) at $2.60.

At least two (2) of these will be sold prior to today's close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:16:38 AM
The OEX is above Friday's high, into the broad congestion zone from January.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:14:54 AM
Swing trade close out alert ... close out the five (5) SMH Nov. $32.50 calls (SMH-KZ) at the offer of $1.75. (these were sold on 10/14/04 for $0.40 per contract).

SMH $34.23 +2.08% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:14:48 AM
Friday's OEX high was 566.64, with the OEX high of the day so far at 566.47.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:05:44 AM
The OEX is breaking through that descending trendline off Friday's high. Those who might have entered a bearish play on hopes of a rollover beneath that trendline should have set account-appropriate stops and be reacting accordingly. Depending on your personal plan, those stops might have been a set amount above the trendline, a move above Monday's last five-minute high (already happened) or a move above Friday's high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:04:04 AM
The TRAN inches closer to the ascending trendine that it broke through yesterday morning. Candles grow smaller.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  10:03:39 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

SOX.X pinned right up against WEEKLY R2/DAILY S2 at this point

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:02:45 AM
The OEX pushes up again toward a test of the descending trendline off Friday's high. If it can sustain levels above that trendline, the short squeeze could propel it up quickly. Have a plan in place for this test.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  10:00:15 AM
If the OEX should roll down, we know from yesterday's prolonged consolidation that the 563.70-ish level should be strong support. Those who might have ventured a trial bearish position on hopes of a rollover beneath the descending trendline off Friday's high should have a plan in place for how they'll handle a test of that level, if the OEX should drop. It goes without saying that such traders should be prepared for possible volatility at the release of crude inventories, and should have a plan for how they'll handle that. Will you exit before the inventories, taking a small loss, if necessary and if there's been no movement beforehand? Will you widen your stop to allow for that volatility? No one answer is right for all traders, so make your decision now, based on your trading style and account and position size.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  9:54:59 AM
The second candle of a potential three-candle reversal signal has just completed on the OEX's ten-minute chart. That's almost the only evidence of a potential reversal, and I think much depends now on what happens with crude inventories. The next candle opened just where it would be appropriate for the completion of the three-candle formation, but now rises again, which is not appropriate for that formation. Still an iffy situation for those who might have entered a trial bearish position on hopes of a rollover beneath that trendline. Be ready to jump right back out again if that trendline is violated to the upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  9:48:37 AM
I'm not sure what to think this morning, and I'm certain some of the rest of you feel the same. I'm not surprised to see a test of broken resistance, but the OEX retraced more of yesterday's decline than it should for bearish plays to be considered appropriate. Yet it's turning down right now from the descending trendline off Friday's high. Mixed evidence. Those who want to hazard a bearish play could do so from rollovers beneath 565.75, but there's absolutely no evidence yet to support such a play from breadth indicators or the advdec line or similar sources. We do appear to have a reversal signal in the making on the ten-minute chart (long white candle, doji perhaps forming), but not even the second candle of that three-candle formation has completed yet. It could be anything within the next two minutes. I usually want more evidence than this, but those of you who don't require that evidence . . . well, you're not waiting on my suggestions anyway.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/17/20,  9:45:40 AM
Bullish Day trade raise stop alert ... for Sun Micro (SUNW) $5.22 +5.24% ... to break even.

First 5-minute bar was from $5.10-$5.19.

For those that don't currently have the use of a retracement tool, here's a Link to spreadsheet that you can plug in a stock's 5-minute low/high in Zone #1 to then calculate your varius intra-day levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  9:44:47 AM
Back after a half hour's worth of fighting with my router.

QQQ remains above teh 30 min and 60 min channel resistances at 38.78 (60 min) and 38.85 (30 min), and this would be the level from which a reversal would be most likely. Sometimes, however, Dr. Keltner is behind the curve, particularly when faced with a strong trending move. If the price doesn't fall back within 10-15 minutes, it will become much more likely that we're seeing the start of another moonshot.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  9:42:48 AM
The TRAN has zoomed up to test the ascending trendline that it broke through yesterday morning. It has not yet broken through that trendline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  9:40:47 AM
I don't pretend to be an expert and perhaps my viewpoint is skewed by my inexperience, but in this environment (a dollar that weakened overnight, higher PPI yesterday and CPI today), crude inventories are going to assume more importance than ever this morning. We need to see satisfactory crude inventories numbers to keep crude prices declining, or the dollar's weakness is going to have even more impact. We buy crude with dollars. This isn't market-timing advice, certainly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  9:35:24 AM
No rollover. The OEX heads straight up to test the descending trendline off Friday's high, with that trendline now at about 565.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  9:34:04 AM
The OEX opens and zooms up toward the top of yesterday's range, breaking through it as I type. We don't yet have enough data to tell us whether we're likely to see a rollover. The OEX was slapped back once from the current 564.50 level, but is at least temporarily holding there now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  9:28:26 AM
The Sears (S)/Kmart (KMRT) merger plans may create some excitement today. S is an OEX component. The OEX is a capitalization-weighted index, so that the impact of any jump in S prices today will be proportional to S's weighting. Currently, S's weighting is one of the lowest, so we don't expect to see S move the OEX, but we should watch the merger's effect on Wal-Mart (WMT), with that company's weighting much higher than S's, of course. The merged company, to be named Sears Holding Corporation, will now be the third largest retailer in the U.S., and perhaps would serve as greater competition for WMT. With WMT not trading in the pre-market, it's difficult to assess whether the excitement will buoy the entire retail sector or whether WMT will suffer from the perceived competition.

For now, futures are higher, including SPX futures. The SPX futures have broken out of yesterday's during-the-cash-open trading range, to the upside. While it's not wise to extrapolate SPX futures activity onto the OEX, there is of course the possibility that the OEX will open near the top or above yesterday's trading range. As I said yesterday, an upside break will soon face the 50% retracement of the decline, at about 564.37 and historical S/R near 564.40. That and the completed reversal signal yesterday make me leery of suggesting long plays on such a breakout this morning, despite my recognition that in strong rallies, sometimes the only retracement is that needed to create the reversal signal. Depending on what happens with crude inventories later this morning and what we see on breadth indicators after the open, there might be too much of a chance of the OEX stalling at that level. Those who might have gone long the OEX near the close yesterday should be aware of the possibility of a rollover, and should watch breadth indicators this morning. So far, though, you're doing good.

What if the OEX doesn't open above that range from yesterday, but near the top instead? As I said in my last OEX-related post last night, those bears who believe in more downside and who would prefer a rollover entry could enter on rollovers beneath 563.75, but they should first see breadth indicators that support such an entry, and they should be ready to be wrong and bail on the play on an upside breakout instead.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  9:16:43 AM
Headlines:

9:15am U.S. OCT. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.7% V FORECAST 0.3%

9:15am U.S. OCT. CAPACITY UTILIZATION 77.7% V FORECAST 77.3%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  9:00:48 AM
The CAD is at a new 15 year? high of .841. Euros remain firm above 1.303. The lack of activity in bonds (TNX flat at 4.208%) is astonishing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  8:57:35 AM
The high of 1.3045 is a new alltime high for the euro.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  8:42:09 AM
The USD Index found support at 83.25 this AM after taking a steep fall. 30-min delayed refreshable chart at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  8:34:21 AM
Equities are hitting new highs across the board, QQQ +.26 at 38.86, gold +3.50 at 444 and bonds are slightlyl higher, TNX currently +1.8 bps at 4.226%. ZN is down .09 at 112.22 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  8:31:30 AM
Headlines:

8:29am ENERGY COSTS ACCOUNT FOR OVER HALF OF OCT. CPI RISE

8:29am U.S. CPI UP 3.2% IN PAST YEAR, CORE UP 2.0%

8:29am U.S. OCT. CORE CPI UP 0.2%, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

8:29am U.S. OCT. CPI UP 0.6% VS 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. OCT. SINGLE-FAMILY PERMITS OFF 2.2% TO 1.525 MLN

8:30am U.S. OCT. SINGLE-FAMILY STARTS UP 5.7% TO 1.645 MLN

8:30am U.S. OCT. HOUSING STARTS MOST SINCE DECEMBER

8:30am U.S. OCT. BUILDING PERMITS DOWN 0.7% TO 1.984 MLN

8:30am U.S. OCT. HOUSING STARTS UP 6.4% TO 2.027 MLN RATE

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/17/20,  7:52:51 AM
Equities are higher, with ES trading 1179.75, NQ 1561.5, YM 10525 and QQQ +.20 at 38.80. Gold is up 2.50 to 443, silver +.053 to 7.646 and ten year notes lower by .14 to 112.1719. Euros are up .46% to 1.3026, and Nymex crude is down .225 to 45.875.

We await the 8:30 release of Oct. housing starts and building permits, est. 1.96M and 2M respectively, CPI and core CPI, est. .4% and .1%, and at 9:15, industrial production and capacity utilization, est. .4% and 77.4% respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/17/20,  7:04:46 AM
Good morning. After a choppy trading day, the Nikkei closed down. Most other Asian markets closed higher, with techs performing well, and European markets post gains, too. Those European gains had been capped by the plummet in the dollar against both the yen and the euro over the last few hours, but European markets were breaking out of their trading patterns to the upside as this report was finished. NQ futures have held their post-HPQ gains, while the ES and YM futures have oscillated a bit more. They're both currently near their overnight highs. As of 6:43 EST, gold was up $3.00 and crude, down $0.26. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei oscillated around the flat-line level during the morning session and zoomed around it during the afternoon. It closed down by 30.46 points or 0.27%, at 11,131.29. Tuesday's record increase in the PPI in the U.S. spooked some investors, and Asian exporters fell. Toyota and Honda fell during early trading, with Toyota Motor, at least, closing lower, too. Fujitsu was one exporter that climbed, with the company's stock gaining 2.3% after a report that a flash memory chip production line would be added in Japan by its joint venture with AMD. After the close, the dollar plummeted to a new recent low against the yen, and that could hurt Japanese exporters in tonight's trading.

Most other Asian markets posted gains, with techs performing well in Taiwan and South Korea. The Taiwan Weighted soared 1.99%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.01%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.49%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.57%. China's Shanghai Composite was one of the few declining bourses, dropping 1.04%, with government data revealing that fixed-asset investment rose in October, but at a slower rate than in the previous month.

Currently, most European bourses post gains, but earlier those gains had been capped by concerns caused by a weakening U.S. dollar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow's comment that Europe needed to shoulder its responsibility for cutting the U.S. account deficit by growing their economy enough to buy our goods must not have played out well.

As had happened in some Asian markets, techs tend to perform well, courtesy of HPQ's earnings release. In addition, Infineon Technologies benefited from its analyst day Tuesday, with several brokers making positive comments. Aerospace group EADS was the subject of renewed speculation about merger plans, with EADS dropping as a newspaper speculated that it might acquire parts of BAE Systems. Videndi has traded both sides of the flat-line after reporting earnings and raising its profit forecast for the year. Lehman Brothers downgraded Unilever and lowered its price target, with that company's stock dropping as a result.

As of 6:43 EST, the FTSE 100 has gained 17.50 points or 0.37%, to trade at 4,787.90. The CAC 40 had gained 22.00 points or 0.58%, to trade at 3,816.27. The DAX has gained 24.43 points or 0.59%, to trade at 4,141.65. All those markets had begun breaking out of the morning's consolidation as I prepared this report, climbing to their day's highs.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/17/20,  6:28:18 AM
KMRT and Sears to merge in an $11 billion deal Link

 
 
  Jim Fabyan   11/17/20,  6:26:28 AM
From the low of 9585.50 on 11/2/03 market rallied to close on 12/31/03 at 10453.92 a run of 868.48 pts, or 9.06%.

From the low of 9708.40 on 10/25/04 market rallied to close on 11/12/04 at 10539.01 a run of 830.61 pts, or 8.09%.

The only difference was the number of days it took to get there, but we must remember this past summer was a slow slumber.

The market did not get to my low projection, but when it turned up with a big spike I assumed it bottomed, especially when the rally coincided with the drop in oil. As long as oil comes down the market will probably rally, and todays oil inventory number may tell the tale.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/16/20,  9:24:14 PM
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