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  Jim Brown   11/19/20,  1:05:52 AM
Alert - PSFT/ORCL Oracle won 60% of the shareholder vote for its takeover of PSFT. It only needed 51% to continue the acquisition.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/19/20,  6:07:37 PM
GOOG - Both Google founders filed with the SEC today to sell more than 7 million shares each. The move will add an additional 15 million shares to the current float. The filing was not annonced until after the close. Watch out for a further drop in price at the open on Monday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  4:50:04 PM
Trader's log book entry for 11/18/2004 .... a lot of buy program premiums, but not a lot of higher stock price movement after a very bullish run in prior weeks.

Trader's log book entry for 11/19/2004 .... Option expiration, oil was up $2.22 at $48.44 (remember heating oil vs. oil in weekly pivot levels), SPX 1,170.34 fell 13 points, or 1.11%, OEX 559.69 -1.10% fell 6.2 points, or 1.38%, QQQ down $0.61, or 1.55%.

Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  4:16:00 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

The naked puts for the IP Nov. $37.50 (IP-WU) expire worthless and will be recorded in this week's trade blotter. ($160.00, or 100%)

Today's activity of OPENED/CLOSED day trade and this week's trade blotter at this Link

I split the various SIRI trades out into 1/2 positions. While these trades were initiated all at once, I had trader's leg out of 1/2 postions as the trade unfolded.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  3:59:18 PM
Jupitermedia (JUPM) $16.62 -10% ... really getting hit toward the close. I can't find any news other than yesterday's updated filing of 8-K, and disclosure of purchasing all of the remaining assets of Hemera Tech.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  3:58:25 PM
The OEX never quite met that downside target predicted by the 15-minute Keltner channels, coming less than a point away from it. As the day closes, the OEX is bouncing up to test Keltner resistance, but it doesn't appear that shorts were too anxious to cover, as the end-of-day bounce was tepid, to say the least.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  3:46:02 PM
The OEX heads toward the downside target predicted by the 15-minute chart. Today the OEX has broken down out of the consolidation zone it had been building. RSI has completed a H&S on the daily chart, with CCI already having done so, which suggests to me that the OEX has reached or is near reaching an intermediate high, or a point from which it will consolidate sideways. That doesn't mean that the OEX won't bounce up to retest resistance, however, and the 558 zone might be one level from which it might do so. If the OEX closes on its low today, there's a chance that the selling isn't over, and that there could be some carry-through Monday morning, and then a bounce afterwards. I would suspect that the bounce to take the OEX up to the bottom of that recent consolidation zone, and a rounding down from there would provide a new bearish entry. This is all clouded by opex activity, worries related to the ongoing meeting by finance ministers and central bank authorities in twenty countries this weekend, and other factors. I think I'd be inclined to close out all or partial positions this afternoon and then see what develops Monday morning. That summit, in particular, has the opportunity to move the currency markets, already open Sunday evening, long before OEX options traders can react to those developments. Those developments might favor a bearish trade or might not.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  3:44:33 PM
The Fed's open market desk never did announce the day's operation. Perhaps a back-slapping cigar party to which even the web-techs were invited at Bernanke's insistence following Greenspan's bold comments in Europe...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  3:28:48 PM
That 15-minute downside Keltner target is now 558.05, with the OEX picking up its pace a little and perhaps inching down now, instead of its former millimetering pace. There's no guarantee that downside target will be reached, of course. Those in bearish positions should continue to follow the OEX lower with your stops, especially those of you who want to be taken out of the trade this afternoon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  3:28:18 PM
QQQ's hacking away at 38.65 support now with session lows printing for its peers. 30 min channel support is below at 38.52, on the way to 38.40-.44 confluence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  3:18:28 PM
The OEX still gradually turns lower, but it's not evening inching down--it's millimetering down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  3:15:56 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  3:07:21 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  3:04:51 PM
The OEX sank through that Keltner support without too much trouble, but it's not going much of anywhere yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  3:03:23 PM
Bonds have been flatlined for the past hour, with TNX still holding its big 1.92% gain at 4.196%. HUI and XAU are pulling back, with HUI +.86% here and XAU +1.08%. Gold is up 4 at 446.80. QQQ is still stalled at the lows. The 30 min cycle oscillators are oversold but not turning up, while the 60 min oscillators continue lower. All things being equal, I'd be very surprised to see a new 30 min cycle upphase kick off today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  2:58:16 PM
Just a typical opex Friday--static markets from mid-morning on. This is one of the reasons that I was cautious about trading conditions today. We've still got time for another big movement, but I'm not sure if markets have been ratcheted down to where they'll stay or not.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:56:40 PM
Sirius (SIRI) $5.21 +10.38% ... session low has been $5.02

Volume heavy at 284 million, but I'm not sure if it will exceed the 10/06 "Stern" volume of 344.15 million.

These two days alone represent just over 1/2 the 1.25 billion share float.

May have to rename the breakaway and running gaps the "Stern and Karmazin gaps."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:49:47 PM
Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 122.87 +1.74% .... approaching its downward trend from the Oct. 7 high to Oct. 27 lower high. Has now retraced exactly 80.9% or recent October-November decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  2:47:53 PM
The Keltner lines that were formerly resistance are now gathering under the OEX's current position, perhaps ready to serve as support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:44:49 PM
Silicon Vally Bancshares (SIVB) $41.67 +0.04% .... holding tough.

Pahcholder High Yield (PHF) $9.96 +0.10% ... holding tough.

Mykrolis Corp. (MYK) $11.52 -0.21% .... not getting hit like the SOX.X 433.64 -2.69% today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  2:41:01 PM
QQQ's above 38.70 now, working on 38.72. Next stop if it makes it is the 38.80 level, below which the picture remains short-cycle oversold but bearish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  2:39:52 PM
The OEX is pushing up through Keltner resistance. If it can maintain levels above 561-561.30, resistance thins overhead, but it remains to be seen if the OEX can maintain those levels. Those who entered bearish positions this morning as the OEX dropped beneath the five-minute 100/130-ema's have had lots of time to make up their minds about whether they wanted to weather this test or not.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:38:57 PM
MMM $81.19 -1.43% .... little bid from session low here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:38:08 PM
Home Depot (HD) $42.84 +0.07% .... creeps green. Dow 30 breadth still negative at 27:3

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  2:30:32 PM
And session low for S&P futures at 1171.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  2:30:13 PM
New high for Nymex crude here at 48.90, +5.44%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  2:29:54 PM
The downside target suggested by the OEX's 15-minute chart has sunk a little lower, to 558.30, but that requires a sound drop out of this double-bottom territory on the five- and seven-minute charts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  2:28:50 PM
Minimal new low on the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  2:26:51 PM
The OEX remains in double-bottom territory on its seven-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:26:17 PM
Sell program premiums believe it or not, we would have only seen one sell program premium so far today. That one came from 10:15-10:20 AM EST.

That equates to SPX 1,176.18-1,174.83

Still... stocks look like they're going to close at their lows of the session, with oil looking to settle at its highs of the session.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  2:24:29 PM
The 38.70-.73 QQQ area should now be light resistance, followed by more significant resistance at 38.90. There are no signs of life or bullish divergences in the short cycle oscillators- price just seems to have stalled out at the lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  2:16:09 PM
30 min channel support is down to 38.60 QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:15:33 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  2:05:44 PM
Still no lower low on the OEX, although Keltner resistance continues to hold. Unless there's a lower low, there's danger of the OEX popping up through that Keltner resistance, as firm as it appears. If it does that and isn't hit with immediate selling, Keltner lines thin out overhead. The OEX is sinking as I type, so it's possible that there will be a lower low by the time this uploads. Watch out for an equal low, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  2:04:01 PM
New session low just printed at QQQ 38.67, 38.70 cracking but not yet broken.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  2:03:07 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/19/20,  1:55:03 PM
Early April looks pretty similar also Linda... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  1:51:43 PM
Some similarities in the current period and that of mid-June: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  1:48:05 PM
Volume has trailed off sufficiently that my tick-based indicators have stalled. Still no end to the trending oversold short cycle move for QQQ, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  1:44:37 PM
No lower low yet (as I type), but the OEX's Keltner resistance still holds.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  1:43:20 PM
The XNG natural gas index is up 1.18% and breaking out to new all-time highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  1:42:46 PM
The OIX oil index is trying to breakout past resistance in the 402 level. Its MACD turned positive yesterday.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  1:41:58 PM
The BTK biotech index is down 1.9% and slipping toward its 200-dma. Technicals are definitely bearish and its MACD has rolled over into a new sell signal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  1:38:57 PM
The OEX is pausing at the appropriate right-shoulder area for an inverse H&S on the OEX. Bears want to see the OEX drop through that level, to a lower low, to negate the formation, rather than rise up through the 561-ish neckline. We know that there's historical resistance, too, in the 561.23 level, due to the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  1:26:47 PM
Keltner resistance holds. Now OEX bears want to see the OEX hit a lower low to negate the potential inverse H&S.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  1:26:08 PM
The wavelet oscillator is rolling over here, printing a sell signal. A failure to break the low here (within the next 5 minutes) will create a bullish divergence on the toppy oscillator, and should be followed by a break above 38.80. Time for the bears to get to work.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  1:18:19 PM
QQQ testing 38.80 from below here. A wavelet cycle upphase is topping as the short cycle oscillators try to pick themselves off the floor. 7200-tick SMA resistance is at 38.83- a move above that for 5 minutes should kick off an overdue short cycle upphase, with 30 min channel resistance next at 38.90.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  1:15:41 PM
The OEX tests Keltner resistance, trying to form another inverse H&S, perhaps, with the OEX just rounding up into the head portion. The neckline looks as if it would be somewhere between 561-561.25, difficult to determine just yet, at least until the head is fully formed. Watching this formation can tell traders much about bullish vs. bearish strength, just as it did earlier when the OEX tried to form another inverse H&S but that formation was rejected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  1:14:32 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  1:05:49 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  1:02:48 PM
The OEX is coming up to meet Keltner resistance on the seven-minute chart, with that resistance starting at about 560.70. Knowing the usual pin-them-to-the-number opex behavior beginning about mid-morning on an opex Friday, bearish traders have a decision to make, as to whether they'll take profit or whether they want to weather a possible bear flag or other formation that rises to test higher resistance. They may not have to do so if that first resistance holds, but that doesn't necessarily mean that one wants to weather static price action, either, with options prices deflating as the afternoon proceeds. Make a decision that's right for you and your account.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/19/20,  1:01:08 PM
Fox News is reporting there is a current bomb threat for Independence Air. They are searching all the planes. Normally bomb threats are hoaxes but they can't take the chance. Company is owned by FLYI

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  1:00:40 PM
Continuous Oil ($WTIC) PnF chart on $0.25 box at this Link

Today's trade in December Crude futures (cl04z) $48.00 +3.85% at $47.50 does generate a double-top buy signal after test of bullish support trend.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  12:51:47 PM
38.70 QQQ continues to hold. Bears staying with the 30/60 min cycles need to be careful of a 'bot attack on the double bottom at 38.70, a common enough bull-bait setup. If QQQ can clear above 38.80 for 5 mins or longer, look for a high volume buy program to signal the launch. 38.90, 39.00 and 39.10-.12 are upside resistance, and above 39.10 the 30 and 60 min cycles will be turning back up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  12:47:26 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Fully updated with SIRI and APA calls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  12:44:20 PM
The breakout level on the OEX's seven-minute chart is at 560.76-561.10. Bears would prefer to see the OEX turned back from that zone.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  12:42:24 PM
30 min cycle channel support has walked down to 38.60 QQQ, while rising expanding wedge trendline support remains in the 38.40-.45 zone. If 38.70 lets go, as the last lower high suggests, 38.60 should be tested quickly.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  12:39:04 PM
OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) is down 9.9% and gapping down from its trading range to break support at $60.00 and its 200-dma's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  12:33:04 PM
That's wat a SIRI bull wants to hear out of a CEO (CNBC interview with Karmazin) .... "everyone is our competitor."

One of the worst due diligence meeting I attended for an IPO had the CEO saying they didn't have any competition. My clients didn't participate in the IPO, and two years later, that company went bankrupt!

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  12:27:51 PM
Here are a few oil and energy stocks that Bank of America started coverage with a "buy" rating today: MRO, STO, REP, BRG, TOT, COP, CVX,

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  12:26:11 PM
Swing trade bullish call alert .... taking one (1) Apache Corp. Jan. $50 call (APA-AJ) at the offer of $3.40.

APA $51.50 here.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  12:25:17 PM
Oil stock AHC is still rebounding and has now pushed through the $80.00 level and minor resistance at $81.50. Technicals are positive and the MACD has produced a new buy signal. AHC is now challenging its simple 100-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  12:25:16 PM
The 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX's downside target is now near 558.44. Again, despite my earlier cautions, the OEX has been trending nicely one direction all day after moving below those benchmark five-minute 100/130-ema's this morning. Bears, continue to follow the OEX lower with your stops. On a day like this, I don't know that I'd be trying to catch a falling knife so that I could enter long, although since the OEX is short-term oversold, it could reverse at any time. Remember not to trust oscillator evidence in a market that's trending. A buy signal could be nothing more than a signal that declines will slow or that prices will flatten.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  12:24:26 PM
The OEX has negated that potential inverse H&S. Bears still in control.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  12:23:03 PM
Session low for Dow futs here, session high for Nymex crude at 48.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  12:21:49 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  12:19:10 PM
TNX is caught between 4.16% support and 4.22% resistance, currently up 7.7 bps at 4.198%. Gold is up 4.20 at 447, off its high of 448.40. Nymex crude is up 3.83% at 48.15.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  12:15:21 PM
Schlumberger (SLB) is also moving higher, pushing past its simple 40 and 50-dma's.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  12:13:45 PM
The pull back in GDW is getting stronger. Shares are now testing the $116 level.

 
 
  James Brown   11/19/20,  12:12:38 PM
OI call play EOG Resources (EOG) is up 2.68% and breaking out over its short-term downtrend and round-number resistance at $70.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  12:12:23 PM
If the OEX pauses long enough, Keltner resistance near 562 will have time to firm up. Those lines have not quite converged on the 15-minute minute chart just yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  12:06:13 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  11:57:31 AM
The OEX is maintaining its breakout status on the 7-minute chart, staying beneath the line (currently at 561.10) that delineates a breakout, but it may need to form a wider bear flag and retrace a bit more of the decline. If a bigger retracement does begin, the 38.2% retracement of the deline off yesterday's last five-minute high lies at about 562.67 and the 50% retracement at about 564.26, both already known S/R levels.

So far, the OEX shows no such inclination, however, continuing to find resistance now beneaththe 561.25-561.50 level, with 562.25 the next expected resistance level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  11:56:25 AM
Swing trade bullish call alert taking four (4) of the SIRI Mar05 $5 calls (QXO-CA) at the offer of $1.00.

SIRI $5.20 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  11:54:01 AM
30 min channel support is down to 38.66 QQQ currently, and 39.00 confluence resistance is now getting out of range, with resistance down to 38.90 as the 30 min channel continues its descent. Channel resistance is down to 39.00 for the 30 min cycle, 39.20 for the 60 min cycle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  11:52:49 AM
Bearish day trade stop alert ... for Sirius (SIRI) $5.16.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  11:49:31 AM
NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices skidded lower on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said investors should be hedged for higher interest rates.

The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 20/32, lifting yields to 4.19 percent from 4.12 percent, while short-term yields hit their highest levels in five months.

Speaking at a euro conference in Frankfurt, the Fed chief said rising rates had been advertised for so long that anyone who had not hedged by now was "desirous of losing money".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  11:47:03 AM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... for Sirius (SIRI) $5.11 +8.24% ... to $5.16.

Just off session low of $5.07!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  11:42:15 AM
Still no announcement from the Fed's open market desk.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  11:42:07 AM
The advdec has flattened, but isn't rising. At -2829 (according to QCharts), it's at levels not seen since October 12, so at extreme levels, but that doesn't mean that we can expect an immediate reversal today. It may instead mean that we'll see an extreme day with downside trading all day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  11:41:40 AM
Jupitermedia (JUMP) $17.40 -5.89% ... sharp drop in last 5-minutes.

potential "bear trap" pattern with trade at $17.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  11:31:16 AM
Session high for CAD at .8376, +.98% for the day with euros up .63%. Gold is up to 447.30. QQQ's taking a weak bounce off the lows, unable to approach 38.90 so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  11:28:44 AM
The OEX looks as if it's trying to form an inverse H&S, just now in the process of trying to round up into a head formation. Remember that the purpose in watching such formations is just to judge whether the bulls can marshal strength to complete the formation, then to confirm it, and then to meet the upside target (probably near 563.50, although it's far too early to tell). Any failure at any point in that process means that bears still have the upper hand.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  11:19:13 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  11:10:53 AM
Session high for Nymex crude at 47.925, +1.55 or 3.34%. Gold is up 4.10 at 446.90, HUI +1.29% and XAU +1.1%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  11:10:30 AM
There's been a tendency lately for potential H&S's to set up (or inverse H&S), but for indices to dispense with the whole right shoulder and just head where it was going to head. Sometimes, I've found that the market involved did meet the downside or upside target, as the case might be. When viewed on a 60-minute chart, it looks as if the OEX had been setting up a H&S, and soon after the open this morning, the OEX fell below the 562.25-ish neckline without ever forming a right shoulder. The downside target would be near 555.75-556. However, the OEX currently challenges the 30-minute 100/130-ema's and they might provide some support. Look for a possible bounce up to the 30-minute 100-ema at 562.05. Bears want to see a rollover near there.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  11:10:04 AM
The break of 38.80 leaves light support at 38.65, with next firmer support between 38.40-.45, being the lower expanding wedge support line on the 30 min chart. The 30 min cycle downphase is getting excellent traction is has yet to reach oversold territory, and that 38.40-.45 level is not an unreasonable target on the current downphase provided that QQQ stays below lower resistance at 39.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  11:07:16 AM
SIRI $5.15

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  11:06:35 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Big move in Treasuries.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  11:02:10 AM
Nymex crude is up 1.35 or 2.91% to 47.725 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:59:02 AM
Bearish day trade close out 1/2 position alert ... for Sirius (SIRI) at the offer of $5.19.

Still a buyer just above $5.15.

From here, keep stop on other 1/2 bearish at break even, but target the home run at $5.05.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:55:32 AM
Despite all my cautions from earlier, this has been a good trading day. Those who used those five-minute 100/130-ema's as benchmarks for the OEX's behavior have found the bearish trade performing well, but they should continue to follow the OEX lower with their stops.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:47:04 AM
Back (no line at the bank). The bounce didn't get far, with a retest of the 38.90 low imminent. TNX is back down to 4.178%, but I suspect that the 4.14%-4.16% level is going to hold as support. Recall that the weekly cycle upphase for the TNX is up, and the daily cycle downphase should have been corrective at best (which, so far, it has).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:45:25 AM
Currently, the OEX lingers near 561.23, the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:44:55 AM
SIRI $5.26 ... now off morning low of $5.16!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:43:58 AM
After pushing above its 200-sma and closing above it yesterday, the SOX has now dropped below it again. It hasn't dropped far, however, as yet. The 60-minute chart shows a potential double-top on the SOX's chart, with bearish divergence as the second top was formed. Confirmation of that formation requires a drop below 433.36, and then the SOX will soon face the gap from 11/17 and the possible gap support there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:41:39 AM
The TRAN did finally break below the recent consolidation zone, but now it bounces again back into that zone.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/19/20,  10:41:02 AM
Speech by Chairman Greenspan
Panel discussion: Euro in Wider Circles Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:38:13 AM
Bearish day trade update alert (SIRI) $5.23 +10.8% .... should SIRI trade $5.15, lets buy back 1/2 of today's short.

With stock slipping below RED #1, lets also lower stop on entire position to break even.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:37:05 AM
Reistance held on the OEX. The 15-minute chart suggests a next downside target of 558.73.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:31:26 AM
The OEX has created a breakout (to the downside) signal on its seven-minute chart. Bears should continue following the OEX lower with their stops. This is a signal that markets are short-term oversold, but Keltner channels were created to identify breakout signals so that they could be traded. Although it sometimes is a signal to enter the opposite direction, it's more usually a signal that the trend is established. Those already in trades in the direction of the trend (down, in this case) should just continue efforts to protect profits. Today, with the economic meeting and the maneuverings related to opex, that truism might not hold, but if you're following the OEX lower with your stops, you'll be protected if it doesn't.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:31:02 AM
Here's the bounce from the lower 30/60 min cycle channel touch, but those channels continue to decline, both of which have moved in tandem to 38.87 QQQ. This bounce looks to be of the deadcat variety, and the decline feels impulsive, having launched from a 30 min cycle bearish divergence. The outlook is bearish below 38.10. I need to step away for half an hour. Back shortly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:27:44 AM
Sirius (SIRI) $5.29 +12.07% ... day trader's chart with DAILY Pivot retracement and lower 5-MRT at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:24:14 AM
As the OEX tries to rise, first resistance should be considered near 562.25, the bottom of the recent consolidation zone. Next resistance is near 563.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:23:02 AM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... for SIRI $5.30 .... to $5.41.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:19:34 AM
TNX is now back above 4.2%, +9 bps or 2.19% for the day. The daily cycle downphase in the TNX is history, unless this bounce reverses to back below 4.14%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:18:26 AM
Still no word from the Fed's open market desk. No action will result in a 2.75B net drain for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:17:17 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:16:57 AM
No weakness from the metals, with Dec. gold up 2.90 at 445.70, HUI +1.37% at 242.66 and XAU +1.15% at 109.56.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:15:15 AM
60 min channel support is down to 38.95, with confluence support from 38.90-.95. Next support is at 38.80. The going should get tougher for bears here, but resistance is now 39.08-39.10, and the picture is bearish below that level. Session low for bonds as I type, TNX up 6.9 bps at 4.194%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:14:31 AM
I see the OEX as having broken below that recent consolidation zone. The TRAN hasn't, though, and I'd like to see it having done the same as corroboration.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:12:53 AM
Turning now to the OEX's 15-minute chart to set a new downside target, I see bottom support at 558.94, currently. Keeping that potential downside target in play depends on the OEX maintaining 15-minute closes beneath the 563.50-564.40 level, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:11:27 AM
Well, it didn't take too long for buyers and sellers to work out that 563.50-564 support versus 564.60 resistance after all, did it? The OEX plunges straight toward the downside target predicted by the 7-minute Keltner channels, with that downside target now have dropped to 562.38. Traders should have a plan in mind for handling this level, particularly important because it's also historical S/R, near the bottom of the OEX's recent consolidation zone.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:09:30 AM
The Fed's open market desk, perhaps speechless after Greenspan's comments about the dollar in Europe this AM, has yet to make an announcement with respect to the 2.75B in overnight repos. It's rare that the desk hasn't posted an update to its website by 10AM, either announcing the operation or that it's taking no action for the day. I'll report as soon as there's news.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:08:19 AM
The TRAN has fallen below 3600 this morning, at 3583.13 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:06:23 AM
It's still not clear whether that 563.50-564 zone will hold up the OEX. While it doesn't show up as support on the seven-minute chart, it does on the 15-minute one, so I think we'll probably see some hesitation between support and resistance while buyers and sellers work this one out. If there should be a quick plunge, have a plan in mind for how you'll deal with that 562.60 zone. The 15-minute chart chart suggests an even lower downside target, but that just all depends on how the 563.50 zone is handled. A quick punch down to 562.60 or so and a move back above 563.50 before the close of a 15-minute period will look different on that 15-minute chart than would a plunge that was not followed by a quick bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:06:21 AM
Euros are back up above 1.30, +.55% at 1.3046.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:05:37 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:03:24 AM
Looks like the buying in bonds yesterday was due to the jam-up with the debt ceiling after all. TNX is up 4.6 bps at 4.163%, breaking back above the confluence resistance level now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:03:03 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $51.22 -11.8% ... very defensive last 5-minutes

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  10:00:29 AM
Day trade short alert .... for Sirius Sat. (SIRI) here at $5.34, stop $5.45, target $5.05.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  10:00:24 AM
QQQ's still sticking to the 39.10 level, but it's not bounced enough to prevent the channels from turning down. The bias is bearish below 39.20 on this basis.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  10:00:16 AM
So far, first OEX resistance holds, and the potential 562.60 downside target remains viable.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  9:54:37 AM
As could be expected, the OEX attempts a bounce from 563.50-564. It looks as if 564.50-564.70 may possibly be strong enough to turn it down again, but this is an opex Friday with Greenspan and cohorts in other countries, now attending a meeting in Europe, liable to make statements that spin markets on a dime . . . so anything goes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  9:51:35 AM
VIX.X 13.02 +0.3% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.78, 12.88, Piv= 13.09, 13.20, 13.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  9:51:23 AM
Those using those five-minute 100/130-ema's as benchmarks (bullish above, bearish below) are in good shape now, but should have profit-protecting plans in place now, at 563.50-564, and again as 562.60 is approached, with that being a potential downside target according to the OEX's 7-minute Keltner chart. That Keltner chart shows a possibility that the OEX is going to drop right down to that level, but we all know that the 563.50-564 is a strong potential bounce zone for the OEX. Keltner charts are configured so that 564.60 now looks like possible resistance, with those five-minute 100/130-ema's now presumed to be resistance, too, so that bears would hope to see a rollover from one of those levels if the OEX bounces now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  9:46:26 AM
39.10 QQQ is descending 30 min channel support for QQQ. The 60 min channel support line is at 39. Any failure to bounce within the next few minutes will bring the 30 min cycle bearish divergence discussed in last night's Futures Wrap into play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  9:44:53 AM
Here's a chart that I've posted several times over the last three weeks, comparing the December 2003-January 2004 rally to the current rally: Link I'm not suggesting that the OEX will necessarily continue to follow that trading pattern, but only showing possibilities. Since I last posted this chart, the OEX has been balancing on top of the zone delineated by the top two blue horizontal lines, consolidating above that zone just as it did in January-March last year, with one two-week dip back into the zone before the long tumble began. I think we're seeing consolidation here just as we did in January-March, with the possibility that the OEX could now chop around in the 562.40-573.40 zone for a while. I hope not. I would think that the last foray into this zone exhausted enough buyers or sellers that this consolidation period will be quicker than that one earlier this year. Anyway, the possibility of a drop or a zoom higher exists at any time. Because of some signs I see on daily RSI and CCI, I'm cautious about long positions until the OEX breaches the January high, but this chart demonstrates that there's absolutely nothing that says that the OEX can't go higher. It did in January, under chart characteristics that look remarkably similar to the current ones. The trend is still an upward one until proven otherwise.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  9:44:38 AM
Session high for Dec. gold at 446 on very large volume of 3282 emini contracts so far today- this would be heavy volume for an entire day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  9:40:20 AM
Dec. gold is holding its gains at 445.10 currently, with HUI up .88% at 241.42 and XAU +.82% at 109.2. Ten year notes remain negative but have ticked up on the equity weakness, TNX +1 bp at 4.127%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  9:37:31 AM
Session low for R2K futures here, but QQQ remains steady above 39.20. There's a bearish divergent downtick in the 30 min cycle oscillators, but we need to see QQQ around 39.10 for at least 5-10 minutes to roll them over. 39.20 printing as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  9:34:39 AM
Bullish day trade stop alert for SIRI at $5.40

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  9:32:10 AM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Sirius Sat. (SIRI) $5.52 +17.16% .... to $5.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  9:31:39 AM
The OEX gaps down to the five-minute 100/130-ema's, punches down, and now rises to test them again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  9:26:24 AM
Ten year treasuries are now in negative territory, with TNX up 1.8 bps at 4.135%. Look for resistance from 4.14%-4.16%, above which the young daily cycle downphase should whipsaw to the upside. Equities remain lightly negative, with QQQ still respecting 39.20 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  9:15:03 AM
Headline just out:

9:14am $TNX TREASURYS ERASE GAINS; GOVERNMENT AUCTIONS ON TAP

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  9:13:51 AM
Please see my 8:56 post for a discussion of my qualms about trading today before reading this post.

Yesterday, the OEX broke minimally below a symmetrical triangle that had been building for a couple of days (15- and 30-minute charts), but with a tall white candle, then reversed course and pushed above the triangle. The OEX then retreated, coming down to test the breakout level, near the apex of that triangle and the 5-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 565.99 and 565.92, respectively. It's prepared to bounce or to break back below that support this morning. S&P futures are about a point down this morning, so don't give us much information as to the SPX's open, much less the OEX's. The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are near the top of the recent consolidation zone, so those who are inclined to trade today (risk money only) could use them as benchmarks. Every breakout lately has been met with selling. Are sellers exhausted now? Maybe. Maybe not. Every attempt to move down has been met with dip buyers. Are buyers exhausted now? Maybe. Maybe not. If you're trading bullish on a perceived breakout above that consolidation zone, be ready to jump right back out of the position if the OEX reverses on you. If you're trading bearish on a perceived rollover at the top of that consolidation zone, be ready to do the same.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  9:05:09 AM
WASHINGTON (CNN) - The House of Representatives has approved a measure to raise the nation's debt ceiling by $800 billion. The bill narrowly passed late Thursday by a vote of 208-204, and a statement issued by President Bush's press secretary said Bush intends to sign the bill into law Monday.

If yesterday's strength in treasuries was based on doubts about the passage of this bill, then treasuries should be weaker today based on this news. TNX is back up to flat at 4.116% as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  8:56:32 AM
Compounding the usual difficulties of trading when prices are within a consolidation zone are the opex Friday shenanigans and the surprises coming out of the economic meeting of finance ministers and central bank members of twenty countries. Greenspan's statement about the dollar this morning precipitated another leg down for the dollar, coming out of nowhere. Although the relationship of the dollar to equities, commodities, and bonds is a complex and sometimes shifting one that I don't always understand, we can't be blind to the fact that the dollar's movements do impact our markets. Today, you have to compare what's possible with the dollar to the impact seen in a conference call after an earnings announcement by a much-watched company. There are lots of opportunities for movements coming out of nowhere. Before the market opens, decide if you want to risk your money with that as a possibility, and, if so, what size positions you want to take. I'm not saying that there might not be lots of money to make today. I don't know yet until I see what happens when the cash markets open. I'm just saying that a position that appears to be working well might suddenly reverse on you, for a multitude of reasons. I absolutely wouldn't risk anything but lunch money (or maybe a good dinner money) on a day like this, so I've made a decision this morning to keep my advice about positions to a minimum, although I will of course comment about what I see developing. I'm personally going to spend the day working with a demo system I'm trying, but I know some will want to jump in anyway, and so I don't want my comments to be construed as encouraging a play one way or another. I'm just posting comments for the benefit of those who are in plays and need advice or who want to gamble that lunch or dinner money, and want advice. This isn't coming from an inability to make a decision, but rather an absolute decision that, as tempting as it might be to be drawn in, the risks today outweigh the potential gains, at least for options traders.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  8:44:46 AM
Bonds continue to advance, with TNX -1.5 bps at 4.102%. Gold is higher at 445.10, ditto silver +.082 at 7.634. Equities are lightly negative, QQQ -.05 at 39.24.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  8:33:07 AM
Gold and silver are rising since he began making those comments, and bonds are up to 112.9688 for Dec. ZN contracts- TNX -.6 bps at 4.111%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  8:32:14 AM
Greenspan is speaking in Europe this AM. Here are the headlines:

8:30am GREENSPAN: DEFICIT CUT BEST WAY TO BOOST SAVINGS

8:30am GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. MUST INCREASE DOMESTIC SAVING

8:30am GREENSPAN: FORECASTING FOREX AND COIN TOSS ARE THE SAME

8:30am GREENSPAN: NO CLUE WHEN DIMINISHED APPETITE MIGHT OCCUR

8:30am GREENSPAN: FOREIGN APPETITE FOR DOLLARS MAY DIMINISH

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  8:24:09 AM
The US Dollar Index is back down to the low end of yesterday's range after testing a higher low above 83.25. 30-min delayed 2-day chart at this Link.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/19/20,  7:49:45 AM
Equities are lower, ES trading 1184.5, NQ 1580, YM 10582 and QQQ -.06 at 39.23. Gold is up 1.40 at 444.20, silver +.048 at 7.60, ten year notes up .046 at 112.9375 and Nymex crude -.70 at 46.15.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/19/20,  7:08:24 AM
Good morning. As a group of finance ministers and central bank executives of 20 nations meets today and tomorrow in an economic summit, currency issues will likely be discussed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow has been making statements about the dollar as he travels in Europe this week ahead of the meeting, but the dollar's weakness against other currencies put pressure on Asian and European bourses in overnight sessions. Asian bourses were mixed, and Europe's are, too. The Nikkei ended flat. Our futures trended down into the European open and then began inching back up toward the flat-line level again. As of 6:55 EST, gold was up $1.50, and crude, up $0.38. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After slipping dangerously close to 11,000 Thursday, the Nikkei gapped higher Monday, and climbed early in the session, but it couldn't hold onto its gains. It tumbled off its highs and closed up only 0.42 points, at 11,082.84. Both crude costs and the yen had weakened early in the session, helping Japanese exporters, but then the yen strengthened against the dollar, with the dollar/yen pair reaching levels not seen since last March. Some auto stocks had been among the exporters gaining early in the session, but most closed lower. Techs tended to perform well after encouraging statements made by Intel's chief executive about the company's prospects for 2004.

Other Asian markets were mixed. In Taiwan, chip-makers declined. CSFB noted that demand for computer-memory chips will fall behind supply next year. The firm expects revenue from global DRAM memory chips to decline 10% in 2005. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.38%. South Korea's central bank reported on economic growth, saying that it had remained at the 0.6% level that was a one-year low. The country's economy might not be able to meet the government's target growth of 5% for the year, one finance minister told reporters. South Korean exporters fell, and the Kospi fell, too, by 1.01%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.28%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.09%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.89%.

Currently, European bourses are mixed, but more trade higher than lower, despite various pressures. Those pressures include the euro's strength against the dollar, hurting exporters. INSEE announced that France's GDP rose only 0.1% quarter-over-quarter. Declining drug stocks throughout Europe put particular pressure on the FTSE 100. In a statement about other drugs than Vioxx that might need scrutiny, an FDA official warned that AstraZeneca's Crestor, a drug meant to lower lipids, appears to contribute to renal failure. Because this reviewer is the same person who labeled Vioxx a danger, his statement perhaps carried extra weight. AstraZeneca's stock led decliners, but drug stocks plummeted throughout Europe, some as much as 7 and 8%.

As of 6:55 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 9.90 points or 0.21%, to 4,795.40. The CAC 40 had dropped 5.69 points or 0.15%, to 3,836.08. The DAX had fallen 15.69 points or 0.38%, to 4,194.37.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/18/20,  12:12:16 AM
Is this a bottom in the VXN? Or will the VXN keep trending down? (see attached chart) Link

$NASI is still in a solid uptrend, Stochs 80 oversold, MACD trending up. That said if the NASI reverse along with the MACD, that would put in a bearish divergence. Link

$BPNDX is getting near to oversold levels. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/18/20,  12:12:02 AM
The OEX ended the day with a doji at the top of a consolidation zone. Although it was bullish that Thursday's trading was in the upper half of the previous day's trading, the doji indicates indecision about moving outside that consolidation zone. Any who bought breakouts above the mostly 562.25-566.25 zone saw the OEX soon stall. After yesterday's breakout was met with strong selling, there's some hesitation about driving the OEX higher.

The OEX has now consolidated long enough to have exhausted sellers or exhausted buyers, however, and one of these breakouts, either to the upside or the downside, is going to matter. Traders are left with little recourse other than to test the breakouts, perhaps with smaller positions than usual, being ready to jump right back out if the play sours, or to wait for a breakout and retest for an entry. That's a retest that might never come.

Tomorrow might be a particularly difficult day to trade, with SPX settlement tomorrow morning and then the usual opex Friday shenanigans. Traders should question whether they want to enter iffy trades on a day known for opex maneuvering, adding another element of risk to those plays. We'll look at how the market sets up tomorrow.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/18/20,  12:11:48 AM
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