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  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  4:54:59 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/22/20,  4:15:48 PM
BRCD earnings = +0.07, est +0.06 - beat

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  4:09:13 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity....

Day trade long Stratasys (SSYS) $31.70, stop $31.50, target $32.50. Carried this one overnight, but stop and target hold for tomorrow.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/22/20,  4:01:19 PM
TIVO earnings = -0.33, est -0.44 big beat

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/22/20,  3:58:43 PM
Earnings after the close

BRCD est +0.06
TIVO est -0.44

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:58:29 PM
Is the current OEX pullback a bull flag pullback under resistance? It could be, but the series of lowers highs and lower lows (the right pattern) looks too broad in comparison to the pattern of the rise that immediately preceded it. That flag should be narrower in comparison, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't watch it for either an upside or downside breakout.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  3:52:29 PM
Bullish day trade update alert .... for Stratasys (SYSS) $31.70 -3.93% ....

If bullish target of $32.50 not met by the close, will carry this trade into tomorrow's session.

Would like to see the Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) $64.01 +1.04% print a close above $63.87, which it looks like it wants to do.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:48:31 PM
The TRAN is back above 3600, at 3603.19 as I type. It may indeed be forming a H&S (this time with a right shoulder) with a descending neckline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  3:46:25 PM
Today was the first time in nearly 1 month that saw a lower low and lower high for the second consecutive session on QQQ. Friday's, then today's ranges were both lower than the previous day's. Still, the daily cycle has yet to roll- bears need to close it red tomorrow, preferrably below today's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:45:41 PM
Jim said this weekend in his Wrap (or perhaps a Sunday comment on the Futures side of the Monitor) that we were likely to see a consolidation day today, and I had agreed, but perhaps we had different underlying viewpoints of the outcome of that consolidation. I had mentioned last night or early this morning that I didn't feel comfortable recommending long positions on a bounce, as it was likely that the OEX would rise to test 562-562.50 and that we'd have to see the outcome of that to see whether a bearish position might be entered on a rollover from that level. It looks as if we might get such a rollover, with the OEX possibly about to confirm a lower high under the 38.2% retracement of the decline off Wednesday's high--just where I had thought it might roll over--but something about this just doesn't feel right to me. I can't put my finger on it, so it's relegated to the "gut feeling" file. Use your own judgment, but realize that we've also got that SEMI book-to-bill number this evening, too. If I'd made a plan ahead of the market open and were adhering strictly to it--no questions--then I'd be jumping with joy at this textbook adherence to that pre-market plan. I'm not, though, and can't figure out why.

Lower high confirmed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:34:21 PM
The SOX has bounced today off its 200-ema. Remember that the SEMI book-to-bill number is after the close today. With the SOX currently between the 200-ema and 200-sma, almost anything is possible, but you won't be able to react to the news when it's released if in an options play. If you're in a semi-related options play now, decide soon whether you want to carry the position overnight.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:32:02 PM
The OEX again tests its 38.2% retracement of the decline off Wednesday's high. It has not yet rolled down, and remains within testing level of the day's high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  3:26:37 PM
QQQ bulls will be looking for a break above 39.04 to kick off a possible cup and handle breakout. This will require a strong burst of volume for confirmation.. Next resistance above 39.04 is just 8 cents away, above which 39.28 is next.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:19:32 PM
Quicksand or not, the OEX is rising from the support it's been testing. Bears want to see a lower high. Bulls want to see a higher high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  3:10:32 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:09:04 PM
The OEX pauses at the presumed Keltner support as well as historical S/R at 561. If the rise was not the expected measured-distribution-form rise such as a bear flag, neither is this behavior as it tests support what one would expect after such a strong zoom up. Instead of stepping on firm ground and stomping around a bit to test it, the OEX sinks into that support as if it were sinking into quicksand. Confusing action so far, and I'm unfortunately still leery of choppy trading action today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  3:05:42 PM
The TRAN falls beneath 3600, and has seemingly confirmed the H&S-that-should-have-been, falling without ever bothering to form a right shoulder. The TRAN does this so often that anyone seeing a left-shoulder-and-head formation should be aware that it might confirm without bothering to form the right shoulder.

Another possibility exists, however: that the TRAN will form a H&S with a descending neckline, with a bounce into a right shoulder beginning at any time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  3:04:30 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  2:54:22 PM
QQQ continues to work on the 38.93-.94 zone, a light confluence zone above stronger support between 38.80-.84. The short cycles are trying to put together a downphase, but it's not going to happen without the price back in the 38.80s. 30 min channel support is up to 38.70 currently, with the 30 min channel still pointed steeply up.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  2:47:34 PM
The TRAN is falling back for a retest of 3600, to see if it holds as support. The TRAN did so about 45 minutes ago, too, rising into a higher high on that test. That presents the possibility that the TRAN could be forming a H&S on its five-minute chart with a neckline just above 3600. Watch out. The TRAN sometimes foregoes the formation of a right shoulder altogether, so it's possible that the TRAN could plunge here. Watch for a confirming move below 3600--either now or after a right shoulder is formed--or for a move to a new high to negate the formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  2:43:10 PM
The OEX now tests the gathering support, to see if it holds. If it does, bears hoping for a rollover from 562-562.50 would now like to see any bounce be a bounce into a lower high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  2:36:07 PM
3D-Systems (TDSC) $18.20 +0.6% .... another 52-weeker today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  2:34:59 PM
Look for first support 2 points from here at 38.93, below which 38.84 and 38.80 are next firmer support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  2:34:54 PM
The OEX pulls back from the 38.2% retracement of the decline off Wednesday's high. This is a natural place to expect a rollover, for several reasons, but the rise off today's low did not take the form of a measured distribution pattern and strong Keltner support appears to gather near 561, so I'm reluctant as yet to assume that "the" rollover has begun.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  2:34:18 PM
Bullish day trade long alert .... for Stratasys (SSYS) $31.73 -3.84% ...

Stick an offer out at $31.70, stop $31.50, target $32.50 by the close.

$31.68 x $31.73 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  2:18:58 PM
The move to 39.04 erased all the losses since 10AM Friday on QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  2:18:44 PM
The OEX pushed above that 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 11/17 high, but now falls back below it. That's not what bulls want to see, but isn't yet strong proof of a rollover in progress, either: not when measured against the "V" shape of the recovery. Stand by for a potential evening-star formation on that seven-minute chart, although for some reason, I just don't feel good about rollover potential just yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  2:15:29 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

Nice little ramp up in NH at the NYSE in last hour (+43).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  2:13:16 PM
QQQ is printing 39.01 here, testing first resistance. Bonds have also firmed, TNX -2.7 bps at 4.169%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  2:13:04 PM
The 38.2% retracement of the decline off Wednesday's high is currently being tested. This climb isn't taking the form of a bear flag, so bears should not assume that the OEX is going to turn down here and hit this level with a new entry, but instead should watch for a push through this resistance or else confirmation that a rollover was beginning. Because of the shape of the ascent, it's too dangerous to assume a rollover without any sign of one in the making.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  2:10:04 PM
Session highs across the board, with Dec. gold up 1.90 at 449 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  2:09:33 PM
During the last five-minute period, the OEX gapped above 561. The seven-minute chart shows significant support gathering from 560.60-561, while the 15-minute chart still shows 562-562.50 as potential resistance. We're about to see soon if that resistance holds.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  2:07:19 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  2:02:23 PM
30 min channel resistance has caught up to the price, currently at 39.00 QQQ, with the 60 min channel top 12 cents below a 38.84. Next confluence resistance is at 39.01 and 39.12.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:52:57 PM
OEX 562 is also the 38.2% retracement from Wednesday's high to today's low, a first spot for many reasons now from which we might begin to look for a potential rollover in the OEX. That doesn't mean that the OEX will roll down from 562-562.50--instead it might zoom through it--but it's a place where we should be particularly watchful.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:51:03 PM
Turning to the OEX's 15-minute chart, I note that this time interval does show that 562-562.25-ish level as potential resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:49:55 PM
The OEX tests the Keltner resistance promised by the seven-minute Keltner charts. It didn't even need to retreat to Keltner support before rising to do so, a short-term bullish development. Nearest support now gathers at 560.59 and next support below that is at 560.03 and 559.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  1:38:42 PM
Session high for gold at 448.90, session low for silver at 7.565. That's a strange combination, but volume is very light for both commodities today, as it is for QQQ.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  1:36:50 PM
Electric Utility stock FPL is up 1.7% and breaking out over long-time resistance at $73.00 to hit new all-time highs. This could be a momentum trader's entry point.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  1:35:59 PM
Cabot Oil Gas (COG) is up 1.4% and breaking out from its recent six-week consolidation. Readers may want to watch for a move over $45.00 as a bullish entry point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  1:32:29 PM
QQQ is now above the tops of the 30 and 60 min channels. Next fib resistance is at 39.01 and 39.11, both of which are also confluence zones. The 30 min channel is turning up now, with channel support up to 38.50 below 38.80 confluence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:29:27 PM
The OEX slows its ascent as it approaches the resistance promised by the seven-minute Keltner charts. It may need to fall back to next support, possibly near 559.50, to reaffirm that support, before it moves higher again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  1:23:21 PM
Looks like the bulls choose door #1, with a pretty straight move through 38.80 and no pullback or consolidation. 38.80 should now act as support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:22:08 PM
Those who are taking positions in semi-related stocks today should be aware that the book-to-bill number comes out this evening.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:18:25 PM
The TRAN has broken above 3600, and has also broken above a descending trendline off the 11/17 high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  1:16:58 PM
Here's the test of 38.80. It's going to take a trending move to breakout to the upside right away- more likely, a consolidation or light pullback first, preferably to bounce above 38.72.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:15:23 PM
The 7-minute Keltner charts show that the OEX is likely to encounter first significant resistance somwhere between 560.30-560.95.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  1:08:42 PM
So far so good for the bulls. Now it needs to hold for another few minutes to turn the still-flat channels up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  1:05:16 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  1:02:35 PM
QQQ's trying again at 38.72. A break should hit 38.80 pretty quickly, which is upper 60 min channel resistance. It's going to take a few minutes to turn these channels up- bulls need to hold at or above 38.68 for approx. 10 minutes to do it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  1:00:24 PM
So far today, the OEX has found support at its 60-minute 100/130-ema's, at 557.47 and 555.15, respectively. It hasn't even touched the 130-ema, but instead has so far bounced from its 100-ema on that chart. Did the TRAN's bounce from these same averages on its chart predict how the OEX might behave, too? So far, the OEX's bounce has been much more tepid than the TRAN's, if so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  12:59:21 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  12:58:02 PM
The TRAN is currently challenging 3600, at 3599.59 as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  12:56:27 PM
QQQ hit a high of 38.71 and has retreated to its current 38.68. The short cycle upphase is very long overdue, but bulls need to see this resistance cleared for at least 5 minutes to kick off the new upphase- it could easily whip back down in the meantime.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  12:53:39 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  12:51:20 PM
Is this the OEX upside breakout that will finally stick? The seven-minute Keltner chart shows mid-channel resistance now at 561.05 with upper channel resistance now at 564.03. Bears who would like a new entry would like to see a rollover from one of those levels. Those already in bearish positions have had ample time to make plans to protect profits.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  12:49:36 PM
No changes for gold either, still up 40 cents at 447.90 with HUI and XAU up fractionally as I type. QQQ is printing a session high as I type at 38.66.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  12:48:09 PM
QQQ remains within pennies of its opening level after bouncing from a low of 38.41. There's no change to the 38.40-38.72 range about which I've been writing- look for a directional break on a range violation with volume.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  12:39:00 PM
The OEX is attempting that upside breakout, but this is not its first attempt today. Stand by. I'm not suggesting long plays today, but am watching for the possibility of a bounce for the purposes of warning those in bearish plays and also to watch for a bounce and rollover entry for those who want to enter new bearish positions.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  12:36:47 PM
Plus, OI call play Sunoco (SUN) is up 1.4% to $79.67 as investors chase last week's breakout over resistance.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  12:35:51 PM
Oil-related Chinese ADR PetroChina Co (PTR) is up 1.34% and confirming last week's breakout over resistance at $55. This looks like a bullish entry point.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  12:34:44 PM
Last week's bounce continues in Murphy Oil (MUR). Shares are up 1.19% and nearing resistance at $82.00. The MACD is seeing some confirmation of its new buy signal.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  12:33:50 PM
FDX is showing some strength with the bounce in the Transports. Watch for a breakout over the $96 level.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  12:32:54 PM
EOG Resources (EOG) is also seeing some follow through on last week's rally. Today's move over $72.00 is a new all-time high.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  12:30:50 PM
ConocoPhillips (COP) is seeing some follow through on Friday's bounce. Shares are up 1% to $88.30. Its MACD is nearing a new buy signal. Today's move breaks through minor resistance at $88.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/22/20,  12:29:39 PM
Entry point! OI put play Forest Labs (FRX) is down 9.15% to $36.61. Bank of America downgraded the stock to a "sell" rating this morning and cut their price target from $45 to $34. FRX has broken support at $40.00 and traded below our trigger.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  12:24:32 PM
The OEX is absolutely getting squeezed between ever-tightening Keltner resistance and Keltner support. Logic says that since the OEX is so short-term oversold, that any breakout would be to the upside, but that's not necessarily true.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  12:12:52 PM
If the OEX should pop higher, the seven-minute Keltner chart shows that resistance lines spread out above the OEX's current level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  12:10:43 PM
December Heating Oil (ho04z) $1.458 -1.65% ..... WEEKLY Pivot levels .... 1.237, 1.358, Piv = 1.426, 1.547, 1.614.

January Heating Oil (ho05f) $1.466 -1.7% ..... WEEKLY Pivot levels ... 1.253, 1.373, Piv = 1.437, 1.556, 1.620.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  12:04:22 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  12:02:50 PM
Nothing much is changing on the OEX, at least as seen on a 15-minute chart. Resistance and support are converging around the OEX, however, so that it looks vulnerable to a breakout one direction or the other soon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  11:27:55 AM
We've seen some discussion of crude's behavior this morning on the Futures side of the Monitor. For reference, those QCharts users trying to find crude's January contract should use cl05f.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  11:21:54 AM
The OEX still sinks toward the lower Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, with that support sinking as the OEX does. That support is now at 557.37, the OEX rises first to test Keltner resistance, currently at 559.06. OEX bears want to see the OEX show 15-minute closes beneath this level, but those bears should be aware of the 60-minute 100/130-ema's just underneath the OEX's current level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  11:12:10 AM
Lost electricity for a few minutes. I'm booting back up now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  11:10:27 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  11:08:11 AM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 48.4875.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  11:06:59 AM
QQQ won't go down, but it hasn't been able to go up either. This could be residual op-ex tractor beam trading. Overall, the intraday cycles are overdue for some upside, while the daily cycles are overdue for some down. A weak corrective bounce has been on the table since Friday. If it's merely delayed, then the break above 38.72 will be the first sign of trouble for bears. If this rangebound slop is the bounce, then below 38.40, the bulls are in trouble.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  11:00:01 AM
The OEX creeps down toward the lower Kelter support, also toward the 60-minute 100/130-ema's at 557.42 and 555.04. It was from these 60-minute 100/130-ema's that the TRAN bounced this morning, more evidence that current OEX bears should know in advance how they'll handle a test of these averages. Will you opt out automatically, take partial profit, set tighter stops, set wider stops, hedge in some way? You have all kinds of choices, each appropriate to some trading styles, but know in advance what you want to do.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:58:08 AM
10:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  10:56:57 AM
The TRAN has almost met its 3596-ish upside target from its inverse H&S on its five-minute chart, at 3591.00 as I type. A break above 3600 that is sustained might initiate another test of last week's highs, but watch to see if that 3600 test is met with selling, instead.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  10:43:39 AM
Keltner resistance held on the OEX, and now the lower Keltner support on the 15-minute chart has drifted down to 557.53.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  10:40:51 AM
The TRAN did confirm its inverse H&S and, in typical TRAN fashion, has already zoomed much of the way toward meeting its upside target. That upside target would be just under 3600, with the TRAN at 3589.67 as I type, pausing to retest another trendline that it just broke through. The test of 3600 will be important, if the TRAN reaches that high. So will a failure of the TRAN to reach that predicted upside target, because that shows some underlying weakness.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  10:40:22 AM
QQQ failed in its bounce attempt below the declining 7200-tick SMA at 38.65, never testing the 38.70-.72 level. A retest of the low at 38.51 is imminent here, below which 38.40 comes into view.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:38:19 AM
January Heating Oil (ho05f) $1.489 -0.2% (30-min. delayed) .... drips red.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:37:00 AM
Sirius (SIRI) $5.61 +8.4% ... breaches Friday's high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:36:02 AM
Nike (NKE) $83.68 +1.43% ... boosts quarterly dividend by 25%. Declares quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share on Class A and Class B common stock.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:30:21 AM
Apple Computer (AAPL) $62.45 +13.26% .... stock surges in early trade after Piper Jaffray raised its bullish target to $100. Firm telling traders no overhead resistance until $60.94 and closing high of 2000.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  10:28:58 AM
As I suggested it might do in my last OEX post, the OEX has risen to test Keltner resistance at about 559.60 before dropping to test that lower target suggested by the 15-minute Keltner charts. The picture looks more bullish when viewed on the 7-minute chart, with resistance lines thinning overhead now. Even there, 560.15 looks like potential resistance. Just have to see if it holds. If not, a bounce could take hold. Remember that I'm not suggesting a long play here on a bounce, if one should occur.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  10:26:38 AM
QQQ bears want to see 38.70-.72 resistance hold if tested. A break above that level for longer than 10 minutes will turn the 30 min cycle channel up and target 38.84 as next resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:17:53 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  10:17:19 AM
QQQ is trying to get back within Friday's range, testing 38.60 resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  10:14:52 AM
Nymex crude has given up its gains, just going negative here at 48.875.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  10:13:57 AM
The TRAN rounds up into a right shoulder for its potential inverse H&S. The neckline looks to be at about 3580, so near the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Remember that inverse H&S's can be rejected at their necklines, too. I'm watching the TRAN because it often gives advance notice of moves in other indices.

This occurs as the OEX slips down toward the downside target predicted by its 15-minute Keltner charts. That lower support has now slipped down to 557.72, but the OEX may bounce up to test resistance before it tests support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:09:16 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  10:05:44 AM
A new session low for QQQ at 38.53, chasing the short and 30 min cycle channels lower. 30 min channel support is now 38.42, within confluence between 38.40-.45 discussed Friday. With the daily cycle oscillators now in a downphase, the issue is when to expect the oversold intraday oscillators to take what I expect to be their corrective bounce. If 38.40 QQQ doesn't hold, 38.18 should be the next confluence support with intermediate fib support at 38.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  10:02:21 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  10:01:56 AM
The TRAN bounces strongly, past its first potential resistance area. Its bounce is not the typical back-and-forth of a bear flag, but rather a "V" shape. However, the TRAN tends to overdo things each direction, so I'm not drawing too many conclusions about the TRAN's action, other than that it's warning us of the possibility of a bounce in other indices. The TRAN is now testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's, at 3579.98 and 3582.02, respectively, with the TRAN at 35777.61 as I type, falling back from that test. There's a potential inverse H&S on the TRAN's five-minute chart, so market bulls would like to see the TRAN's current slight pullback end before the 3570-3572 zone and round up from there. A move much below 3570 questions that potential inverse H&S.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  9:57:49 AM
With no expiries today, the Fed's 9.75B overnight repo just announced is a net add for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  9:56:06 AM
Jane has a different take on the internals than I expressed in my 9:53 post, and she's experienced in watching them. Those who want a different viewpoint should check out Jane's 9:53 post on the Futures side of the Monitor. I'm still showing a negative advdec line, though, with it not being positive yet all day, so our charting services are showing some differences, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  9:53:48 AM
I don't see anything bullish yet about the internals of the market, so I don't know that I'd be entertaining any "long on bounce" thoughts, at least for OEX options plays. Doesn't mean that a potential bounce play wouldn't be profitable or that those in bearish plays should ignore their stops--those internals can reverse as quickly as equities can, but I'd sure want everything going for a play if I were trading long right now, and I don't see all those ducks lining up in a row the way they should.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  9:53:11 AM
VIX.X 13.66 +1.18% .... DAILY Pivot Levels as follows ... 12.31, 12.91, Piv= 13.37, 13.97, 14.43

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  9:50:42 AM
The SOX currently tests its 200-ema at 426.06. This average has proven important in the SOX's trading behavior over the last month, so this test should be watched. The SOX is at 426.44 as I type. A sustained drop beneath this average could set up another test of the 408-412 zone, but we'd have to wait until today's closing to decide whether the drop had been sustained on a closing basis. For right now, the SOX appears to be attempting a bounce from that average.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  9:46:59 AM
The TRAN is already bouncing this morning, offering a warning to those in bearish plays in other indices to pay attention to the TRAN, too. The TRAN, however, is approaching historical S/R from its consolidation zone over the last month, with that resistance mostly in the 3570-3572 zone, and with the TRAN at 3569.43.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  9:45:35 AM
No bounce for QQQ, with new lows printing as I type. The 30 minute cycle channel has rolled back down, with support now at 38.47.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  9:43:21 AM
The OEX continues to ease down toward that lower Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, with that Keltner support at 557.82 currently. Also watch the 60-minute 100/130-ema's for potential support, with those averages at 557.38 and 554.96, respectively. Although those currently in bearish positions want the OEX to just plummet and keep moving down all day, those who want a new position would like to see the OEX bounce and then rollover from resistance to offer that new entry. Those currently in bearish positions are doing fine, but should have a plan in mind for how the 557-558 and 555-556 zones will be treated, as they could offer potential support

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  9:35:17 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $39.07 -3.02% .... sharply lower after Banc of America Securities downgraded to "sell" from "neutral" due to risks associated with the Lexapro trial and the earlier-than-expected entrance of generic Celexa. BofA cut its price target to $34 from $45.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  9:33:39 AM
The OEX isn't moving much this morning, but the direction it's moving is down, from first Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. That chart continues to show vulnerability down toward 558, to 557.84 currently, but we just don't have enough information yet to judge whether that will be reached or how the OEX will react upon reaching it, if it does.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  9:33:39 AM
Dec. gold is up .20 at 447.30, with HUI and XAU opening fractionally lower.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  9:22:32 AM
The 30 minute cycle upphase with which the NQ left off on Friday is not over, but it's certainly hesitating with this morning's weakness- QQQ is currently printing a session low of 38.59. Channel support is at 38.50, and if the price doesn't bounce in the first 15 minutes of the cash session, the upphase should abort and reverse. This would be a very bearish development. On the other hand, if QQQ can get above 38.68 for minutes or better, a short cycle upphase should kick off, targeting 30 min channel resistance at 38.80 for starters.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  8:59:01 AM
Futures suggest that there may be some carry-through to Friday's losses. As I mentioned last night, some OEX charts and formations suggest potential short-term downside to 555-556, but others show potential strong support in the 557-558 region, not far enough below Friday's close to benefit those entering first thing Monday morning when options prices are going to be plumped up due to opex activities. For those in bearish plays carried over the weekend, continue to follow the OEX lower, if it declines, but have a profit-protecting plan in mind for both those discussed zones. Sixty-minute 100/130-ema's at 557.35 and 554.90, respectively, reinforce the importance of the two S/R zones into which the OEX will descend if it continues Friday's losses.

Because I also suspect that the 562.25-ish zone could be retested to see if it holds as resistance now, and because none of us are yet certain whether it will, I don't feel good about long plays right now if the OEX should bounce from one of those perceived support zones. Therefore, today or this morning, at least, may be a set up for a play later in the day or later in the week. As the charts are configured right now, I would expect that to be a bearish play on a rollover from resistance, but let's see what the day brings before we make too many decisions. Remember that options prices will not be cheap this morning, and unless the volatility indices jump higher, you'll need lots of movement in your direction very quickly in order to profit. You can be right about the entry and right about the direction, but not be right about the pace of the move in your direction, and still lose money on options.

The danger in not entering is that today will be another day of cascading losses or zooming gains, and you won't be participating.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  8:43:12 AM
Reader Question: Do you know how an Iron Condor is taxed? Is it considered a straddle?

Response: Interesting question. You can find information about how the IRS taxes combination strategies at the irs.gov site. Because I'm not an accountant or certified preparer, I cannot interpret the information, but can provide some quotations here. At the following IRS link, you'll find a straddle defined as "any set of offsetting positions on personal property." Link In a later statement on the same page, the document further defines "offsetting position" as "a position that substantially reduces any risk of loss you may have from holding another position." It further asserts that to qualify as a presumed offsetting position, one condition is that the "positions are sold or marketed as offsetting positions, whether or not the positions are called a straddles, spread, butterfly, or any similar name." You'll find some examples of positions on that page, although not one of an iron condor, I don't believe.

So, while we in the options trading world might attach a specific meaning to the word "straddle," it covers a wider spectrum in the IRS's world. As you can imagine, all sorts of rules must be met, with those conditions too extensive to be addressed in this document. As always, I suggest that you consult a tax preparer who is familiar with options trading for more help and interpretation. I also searched some of Mike Parnos' articles to see if one might have dealt with the specific tax implications of an iron condor, but I couldn't find one.

Also, those of you who might be new to trading this year might research "wash sale" rules. Those rules come as surprise to new traders (and, unfortunately, to tax preparers not conversant with rules affecting stock and options traders), and this is a good time of year to research them. You may want to change your trading patterns over the last 30 days of the year to avoid some of the messiness of accounting for them. You'll find them discussed in the same document linked above.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/22/20,  8:38:39 AM
Dateline WSJ - Securities and Exchange Commission staffers are preparing to present an overhaul of rules that could radically alter the way billions of shares trade each day in the U.S. by establishing best price as the top priority for brokers handling investor stock orders.

The proposed plan, which has been circulating among the SEC's five commissioners in recent days, expands a trading rule meant to ensure that investors secure the best price for stocks by extending the rule to all markets and to nearly all types of stock orders, rather than just certain ones, according to several people who have been briefed on the plan.

The revised rule - which would require better electronic linkages between all markets - mandates that no matter what, investors are entitled to the best price for most orders on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market, provided that the orders could be filled automatically and without human intervention, according to these people. In a new twist, the rule also would require that brokers "sweep" all markets to fill an order at the best price per share at a given time, these people add.

The 200-plus-page proposal, written by senior market-regulation officials, is scheduled for a vote Dec. 15 and may not be fully disclosed to the public before then. But that vote could be postponed if market participants such as the Big Board,Fidelity Investments, and at least two SEC Commissioners, Paul Atkins and Cynthia Glassman, prevail in arguing for more time to consider the proposal, say people with knowledge of their concerns. Among the issues are that the current iteration of the plan, a rule revision known as Regulation NMS that has been under consideration in various forms since February, was hastily prepared and should be subject to fuller public debate, these people say. To that end, the two Republican commissioners, Mr. Atkins and Ms. Glassman, have expressed worry that the rule will result in too much government regulation of the markets.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  8:31:18 AM
Bonds have opened flat, with TNX unchanged at 4.196%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/22/20,  8:07:29 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1169.5, NQ 1552, YM 10450 and QQQ -.13 at 38.55. Gold is up 70 cents to 447.80, silver .044 to 7.648, ten year notes up .044 to 112.4062 and euros + .13% to 1.3032.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  6:23:10 AM
Good morning. Rising crude costs and a weakening dollar battered overseas markets. The Nikkei dropped 2.11%, and most other Asian markets fell, too, some sharply. European markets turn lower. Although off their lows of the overnight session, our futures have reacted to overseas weakness by weakening themselves. As of 6:16 EST, gold was up $0.50 and crude, up $0.47. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped below 11,000 Monday morning, and then dove lower as Japan's exporters reacted to the weak dollar and higher crude prices. At one point, the Nikkei had lost more than 300 points, but managed to close off its low, still down 233.45 points or 2.11%, at 10,840.39. This weekend's meeting of the finance ministers and central bank members of twenty nations did not result in a statement that would be perceived as supporting the dollar. While some watch Japan to see if it will intervene again to weaken the yen against the dollar, others have pointed out that the effects of such interventions are transitory. In addition, some techs dropped after a Tokyo-based analyst at Goldman lowered ratings on Tokyo Electron and Advantest, citing a difficult order environment for 2005. Banks Sumitomo Mitsui and Mizuho Financial reported declining first half net profit.

With techs and exporters weak throughout the region, most other Asian markets declined, too. The Taiwan Weighted reacted to Friday's late-day announcement that the GDP growth for 2005 had been revised lower to 4.56% from the previously estimated 5.93%. For the third quarter, GDP grew at 5.27% from the year-ago level. The Taiwan Weighted fell 3.12%. South Korea's Kospi fell another 1.97%, with the dollar's weakness against the won of particular concern. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.89%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.09%, however, and China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.22%.

Currently, all European bourses turn in losses. In addition to the weakness seen in exporters around the globe as the dollar weakens, airlines react to rising crude prices. J.P. Morgan Securities took SAP off a focus list, at least partially on currency concerns, and Morgan Stanley spoke with concern of the effect of the weak dollar on European earnings. J.P. Morgan Securities also trimmed its rating on Swiss pharmaceuticals to a neutral weighting on value considerations. Many financials tend to be weak.

As of 6:16 EST, the FTSE 100 has lost 34.90 points or 0.73%, to trade at 4,725.90. The CAC 40 has declined 38.47 points or 1.01%, to trade at 3,760.31. The DAX has fallen 37.70 points or 0.91%, to trade at 4,097.19.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/21/20,  10:36:52 PM
Sunday evening, our futures are dropping along with the Nikkei, although not as precipitously as the Nikkei. Tomorrow morning, let's look at how European markets have performed and how our futures have reacted, but it may be that there's some follow-through Monday morning to Friday's selling. As the day closed Friday, the OEX looked vulnerable to 558, where it encounters a S/R zone from earlier in November. That zone extends down to 555-556, but it's possible that declines will slow once the OEX touches or enters that zone. Those wanting a new bearish entry would probably prefer a bounce and rollover entry, with one possible spot for a rollover at about 562.25. Because of the possibility of a rollover at that level, I'm not suggesting new bullish plays on a bounce from Friday's close, if the OEX should bouncing rather than add to Friday's losses. We'll look at how a long play shapes up if the OEX should bounce, but from this vantage point, it's not my preferred play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/21/20,  9:36:33 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/20/20,  9:22:22 PM
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