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  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  6:38:53 PM
The next "real estate" play? .... Here's an old stock I've mentioned before....

ML Macadamia Orchard LP (NYSE:NUT) $4.25 +7.59% Link .... looked this one up last night after some merger in the Macadamia nut industry yesterday. Kicks off a decent little dividend of $0.20

Company profile at this Link

Somebody else might have been thinking same thing as me. Stock traded 63,100 shares today. Average daily volume last three months just 4,772.

Need to consult Donald Trump to see what land is worth.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  5:15:36 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  4:46:55 PM
Google (GOOG) 167.52 +1.46% ... shoot! $176.60 in extended session.

Had an alert set for a bullish trade tomorrow at $170.00. Might get it on a dip tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs sets price target of $215

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  4:12:27 PM
Buy Program Premium DIA $104.92, SPY $118.14, QQQ $38.98.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  4:11:46 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ...

Sold two (2) of the four (4) SIRI Mar. $5 calls (QXO-CA) at the bid of $2.05. ($210.00, or +105%)

Closed out the day trade long from yesterday in Stratasys (SSYS) at $31.90. ($0.20, or +0.63%)

Day trade long Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) at $6.70, but stopped out at break even as post-profile high of $6.80 fell shy of my $6.87 bullish target. ($0.00, or 0.00%)

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/23/20,  4:07:23 PM
TECD blows away estimates of 55 cents with a 64 cent headline number.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/23/20,  4:04:12 PM
ADI earnings = +0.34, est +0.34, inline but guidance for Q4 is lower on continuing mixed signals from buyers.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/23/20,  4:02:45 PM
Linda the only thing I studied in High School was boys.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  3:55:24 PM
When you were in high school studying whatever it was that you were studying, did you ever dream that you'd be weighing the action of the dollar against the yen and how that might affect the U.S. budget deficit, and keeping up with the Hang Seng's record new highs or Germany's disappointing GDP? Happily studying physics and being one of my school's two female math nerds, I didn't.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  3:52:07 PM
The Nikkei will be open tonight after its one-day holiday. The Nikkei has been range-bound since August, trading in an about 750-point range that's gradually narrowing into a triangle at the top of its range. Monday, the Nikkei gapped lower beneath the 50-dma and headed again toward the bottom of that range, bouncing from just above 10,750, but closing below 11,000 again. Depending on how the lower trendline is drawn, the Nikkei verges on breaking through to the downside, perhaps touching that rising trendline. Daily MACD verges on a bearish cross right at the signal line. However that trendline is drawn and whether a downside break or a bounce is imminent, the Nikkei's action over the rest of the week might get some action started on our indices, too.

We can hope anyway. Regardless of where the trendline actually lies, a break below the October 25 low of 10,575.23 would confirm a break below that trendline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  3:35:25 PM
The OEX has twined itself around the five-minute 100/130-ema's since about noon yesterday. Those averages are now at 560.26 and 560.35. The OEX is currently above those averages, but it's spent a few hours above them, a few below, and is now above them again, but it never gets more than a couple of points away from them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  3:33:37 PM
Bullish day trade exit alert .... for Sirius (SIRI) $6.70

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  3:29:08 PM
A break above the upper end of the range at 38.96 QQQ on rising volume will turn this pennant into a bullish cup and handle breakout, though the handle is growing extended on the 100-tick chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  3:26:01 PM
The SOX is still caught between its 200-ema and 200-sma. It keeps bouncing from its 200-ema but can't reach the 200-sma again. The 200-ema at 426.17 is near the 50% retracement of the rally off the 11/10 low, so two forms of support converge there. Recent advances have so far been capped by the 200-week ema, with that average at 459.12. Last week, the SOX pierced this average, but then moved back down below it before the week's close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  3:25:00 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Sirius (SIRI) $6.77 ... to break even ($6.70)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  3:24:16 PM
A short cycle downphase has kicked off within what appears to be a narrowing wedge/pennant between 38.70 and 38.96 QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  3:17:19 PM
Day trade bullish raise stop alert .... for Sirius (SIRI) $6.75 .... to $6.62.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  3:15:57 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  3:14:17 PM
When viewed on a 30-minute chart, the TRAN is so far showing a clear pattern of Keltner-style bearish divergence. Each new high has actually fallen further away from the upper Keltner resistance level on that chart. Without a zoom higher to break the pattern, the TRAN shows vulnerability down to 3590, but more likely to 3571 and perhaps even 3524, according to that Keltner chart. The TRAN never does what it looks as if it should be doing, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  3:10:06 PM
About an hour ago, the TRAN confirmed a big continuation-form inverse H&S on it's 15- and 30-minute charts, moving above the neckline but not above the 11/17 high that started the fall down into the inverse H&S formation. I don't trust these continuation-form inverse H&S and regular H&S's, particularly ones that form right in a consolidation zone. That's where this one is forming. The TRAN is now headed back down to test the neckline area, slipping a little below that neckline as I type. Just aimless zooming today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  3:05:49 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  3:03:37 PM
The TRAN has not yet been able to best the 11/11 high, much less the 11/12 and 11/17 highs, with each of them being higher highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  3:02:52 PM
Day trade bullish entry alert .... for Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $6.70

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  2:57:11 PM
The OEX is approaching the appropriate right-shoulder level for its potential inverse H&S, continuation form, with that right shoulder at about 560.45 and with the OEX at 560.68 as I type. So far, this is just more coiling around between 562.50 and 558, however.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  2:56:53 PM
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) is up 5.4% and breaking out over round-number resistance at $50.00 to hit new all-time highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  2:51:11 PM
Bulls can keep an eye on Illinois Tool Works (ITW). Shares have not pulled back from resistance as it has in the past. Instead the stock is consolidating with a coiling pattern that looks ready to breakout. Watch the $96.50-97.00 levels for the breakout.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  2:48:34 PM
Eagle Materials (EXP) is bouncing from its 21-dma and the $72 region to challenge resistance in the $75 region. Looks like a possible bullish entry point if it closes over $75.50.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  2:45:30 PM
Whoa! OI call play Fluor (FLR) is really taking off now. Shares are up 8.88% to $52.80 on very heavy volume. I don't see any news to account for the sudden ramp up. Options traders who entered this morning may actually want to consider exiting now for an early profit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  2:44:45 PM
CBOE Internet (INX.X) 199.07 +1.11% ... now sector winner as Oil Service (OSX.X) 124.98 +1.05% continues to fade a bit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  2:42:56 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $51.60 -0.67% ... potential "doji day" and good setup potential for a round back to full position bullish tomorrow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  2:39:53 PM
QQQ has drifted back below 38.93 and is now testing 38.90 confluence after failing just below 39.00. Volume is trailing back off on this pullback, and all but the most aggressive bears will want to see QQQ back below the 38.80 level before trusting the pullback.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  2:39:06 PM
Once again, the OEX pulls back from the 562.50-ish zone. This time, there's the potential for an inverse H&S, continuation-form on the five-minute chart, with a right shoulder still to be formed. I don't trust these types of formations, but watch it anyway to see if it's negated or confirmed.

I'm stepping away for a few minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  2:38:20 PM
Oil Service (OSX.X) 125.22 +1.25% ... fading a bit to afternoon low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  2:31:15 PM
Bullish day trade setup alert ... for Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $6.65 +11.39% ....

Go long on a trade at $6.70, stop $6.59 (to begin), target $6.87.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  2:23:38 PM
The GHA is above 300 again, at 300.07 as I type, perhaps sliding back below 300. Watch this index.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  2:21:08 PM
QQQ is above 30 min channel resistance and testing 38.93 now in a very impressive show of strength from the bulls. It's now do or doo-doo time for the bears.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  2:20:26 PM
The TRAN pushed above the double-top highs produced yesterday on the intraday charts, and now rises toward recent highs produced on 11/11, 11/12, and 11/17, with each of those highs higher than the preceding one. Will this push break the trend of higher highs? The 11/11 high was 3627.38, and that will be the first resistance the TRAN faces if it continus to climb.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  2:19:55 PM
Texas Industries (TXI) could be a bullish candidate, which is hitting new six-year highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  2:18:33 PM
Hmmmm... just noticing the ramp up in Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG). The stock is hitting new all time highs up several days in a row now at $76.05.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  2:16:56 PM
The OEX pauses at next historical resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  2:15:24 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

Little burst of bullishness at the big board.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  2:08:43 PM
This is where QQQ's bounce should fail if the 30 min cycle downphase is to continue. If not, the confirmation of an intraday trend reversal will come on a break above 38.93.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  2:08:28 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  2:07:41 PM
As it did yesterday, the SOX has bounced from its 200-ema, although it hasn't yet bounced far.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  2:06:50 PM
Best Buy (BBY) is looking vulnerable here. The stock spent the last two weeks failing to breakout over resistance near $62 dating back to late 2003. Technicals are turning south.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  2:05:55 PM
The OEX has now met and exceeded the upside target predicted by the breakout of the small rectangular range from this morning. It tests Keltner resistance and approaches presumed historical resistance from the earlier and broader rectangular range from this morning, with the bottom of that range near 560.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  2:05:19 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 623.00 +0.23% ... bids back green.

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $64.17 +0.17% .... offering some support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  2:01:39 PM
Price remains pegged here at 38.74, with no change to the 30 min cycle oscillators still pointed down, with teh 30 min channel slowing its descent at 38.82. The lower channel band is ticking up, the first sign of an early abort to the 30 min cycle downphase. 10 minutes above 38.80 QQQ should be enough to do it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  1:52:32 PM
The TRAN finally met and has even exceeded the upside target predicted by the confirmation of the inverse H&S on its five-minute chart, this after meeting a downside target confirmed by another formation. However, the TRAN has not been able yet to sustain levels above yesterday's high. It pierced it but fell back. There's a possibility now for a larger continuation-form inverse H&S at the top of the TRAN's range this week, with a right shoulder still to be formed. Or maybe not. You know that habit of the TRAN's: it's just as likely now to either confirm the thing and zoom up to its upside target or go ahead and fall far enough to reject the formation. Which ever way it zooms, it may bring some other indices along with it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  1:39:00 PM
So far, the OEX hasn't even been able to make it up to the upside target 0.70 above the breakout level out of that tight rectangular range, with that upside target at about 560.15.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  1:37:58 PM
Norfolk Southern (NSC) has been consistently bouncing from the simple 40-dma for months. The stock just did it again two days ago. Entry point? Maybe, the stock does look extended.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  1:23:38 PM
The OEX breaks slightly above the top of the rectangular zone it had been building at the bottom of today's range. That rectangular zone predicts a whopping $0.70 upside, with the OEX already having achieved about $0.25 of that.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  1:22:10 PM
QQQ is testing the range high of the past 2 hours, above which 38.80 and 38.88-.90 are the strongest resistance levels. The 30 min cycle continues down, however, with 30 min channel resistance lined up with declining 7200-tick SMA resistance at 38.82. The bulls have their work cut out for them, and a break above 38.90 would be a very impressive achievement if they can do it.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/23/20,  1:15:15 PM
Today's spike in oil? Could this be traders covering their shorts in oil ahead of tomorrow's inventory report? CNBC reported analysts' expectations of higher inventories. Would this usually cause a drop in oil?

There should not be this large a spike just because of inventories. We get inventories weekly so there should not really be any fear. The December oil contract expired last Friday and those short had to roll out to January. This caused a short squeeze on Friday and I suspect this weeks bounce is those same positions being reestablished or covered.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  1:13:18 PM
The TRIN has been trending up since mid- to late-morning, but so has the advdec line. Mixed messages again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  1:12:18 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  1:07:00 PM
Oil stock The Houston Exploration Corp (THX) looks bullish here. Shares have been consolidating for two months but recently broke out on big volume. Technicals are positive with a new MACD buy signal.

The company said it will have to restate earnings over an asset misclassification but there will be no impact on its financials.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  1:04:45 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  1:00:30 PM
Legg Mason started coverage on highly shorted Travelzoo (TZOO) with a "sell" rating this mornings. Shares turned lower at the opened but bounced from support (a.k.a. old resistance) near $75 and is now up 3% to $82.14.

The most recent reading put short interest at 73% of the 2.1 million share float.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  12:57:09 PM
After creating a rectangular trading range and breaking below that, then meeting the downside target, the TRAN formed an inverse H&S on its five-minute chart and headed back above 3600 again. It's not quite at its 3608.70-ish upside target. What can you say about a day like this? Downside breakouts, upside ones: I said earlier this morning that this was a dangerous day and it still feels that way.

So far, however, nothing too dangerous has happened to those who might have entered bearish trades on this morning's rollover beneath the 562.50-ish zone. The OEX just consolidates in a sort of sideways flag. We don't know the outcome of that consolidation and new bears sure aren't sitting on hefty profits in any options position from that entry, so they should be judging how comfortable they feel riding this out. Anything could happen.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:54:43 PM
Limited Brands Inc (LTD) is painting a big bearish engulfing candlestick today. A breakdown under $26.00 could be a bearish entry point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:51:29 PM
Oil Service (OSX.X) 126.30 +2.12% ... new 52-weeker.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  12:44:29 PM
There's been little technical progress during the past hour. 38.60-38.80 QQQ is the current range, with key support at 38.48. The 300 min stochastic on the 30 min cycle has reached its midpoint, but other than that, the tick-driven indicators have stalled on the drop in volume. Look for a break of this range with a burst of volume to signal an end to the range- my bias remains to the downside based on the synchronous daily and 30 min cycle downphases, as well as the light volume on the bounce off the current lows.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:40:38 PM
OI call play Sunoco (SUN) is up another 1.8% following yesterday's breakout over round-number, psychological resistance at $80.00.

OI call play Schlumberger (SLB) is also on the move as the oil sector turns higher.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:38:37 PM
Chinese ADR PetroChina (PTR) is also seeing some follow through on yesterday's breakout. The stock is up another 2% to $56.99.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:38:25 PM
Good Gravy! .... Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $15.77 +15.3% Link

Nearing its 1997 high of $19.25. Over the generations, stock has tended to "peak" at about $18.00.

Will note that U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) is nearing its 1998 lows of 81.58.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:37:16 PM
Newly added OI call play Fluor (FLR) is off to a strong start with a 2.14% gain today following yesterday's breakout over resistance at $48.00. Volume has been above average for two days in a row now.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:35:44 PM
Potential exit alert! - The rally continues in OI call play EOG Resources (EOG). Shares are up another 1.2% to $74.38 and up five days in a row. The stock is getting pretty close to our short-term target at $75.00. Given its run from $68.00 readers may want to consider taking some profits now or relatively soon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  12:34:20 PM
Now the OEX tries to form another rectangular consolidation zone, this one smaller than this morning's. We'll watch for a break either direction, with the zone roughly between 558.75 and 559.45. That's sure not going to predict much of a movement (roughly $0.70) upon a breakout, but it might be a little excitement at least.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:32:36 PM
OI call play ConocoPhillips (COP) is up another 1.29% and breaking out over round-number, psychological resistance at the $90.00 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:29:54 PM
TBH happens to be another Brazilian telecom that is breaking out over four-month old resistance at the $30.00 level. Its P&F chart is in a new buy signal with a $39 target.

 
 
  James Brown   11/23/20,  12:29:04 PM
The rally continues for shares of Brazilian telecom (BRP). Volume has been above average on the four-day rally and shares are now breaking out over resistance at $35.00 and its 50-week and 200-week moving averages. The move has also produced a new triple-top breakout on its P&F chart with a $49.00 target.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/23/20,  12:28:06 PM
Linda I loved your analogy in your 12:21 post. Those candles really do look like bats hanging upside down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:24:30 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  12:21:36 PM
Just because it's interesting to those who love technical analysis: We've often debated whether the volatility indices, advdec line and other internals we watch also follow typical technical analysis tools. I happened to type in TRIN on a five-minute chart that includes the 100/130-ema's and here's what I found--all the TRIN's five-minute candles lining up under those averages, clinging to them like bats hanging upside down on a ceiling: Link All those upper shadows are not normally considered a bullish development, but the shape the candles take is that of bullish right triangle, normally a bullish development. Mixed messages here, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  12:21:01 PM
Session high for 10-year bonds here, with TNX back to unchanged at 4.165% in a strong turnaround. ZN bond futures are exceeding yesterday's high as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:18:03 PM
Continuous Oil Chart ($WTIC) ... at this Link ... With session high of $50.25 for the Jan. Crude Oil contract, I will chart X's up to $50.25 in tonight's Index Wrap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:13:53 PM
Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Stratasys (SSYS) $31.90 here

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  12:13:52 PM
Yesterday, with all the assorted news out about computer manufacturers, some positive and some negative, the GHA resolved the issue by heading higher, creating a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. As Tab G. has taught us, it's as important to watch the GHA as it is to watch the SOX. I wondered, though, if that bullish engulfing candle could actually be a "last bullish engulfing candle," a type of engulfing candle that comes at the top of a steep climb and signals that bullish fervor has been exhausted by a last spurt of buying. A fitted retracement bracket snapped across the then-current-rally's span seemed to mesh well with consolidation periods in the GHA's last rally. It had just edged above 300. Was this a natural turning-back point? This morning, the GHA pushed above yesterday's high, but now is back below 300, at 298.83 as I type. The candle is a potential reversal signal so far, but the day is far from over, so we have to see what develops. So far, it just gives visual evidence of a natural hesitation, but it certainly didn't build on yesterday's strength, either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:13:15 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  12:06:45 PM
The SOX is again testing its 200-ema, with that average at 426.14, and with the SOX currently at 427.06. Yesterday the SOX bounced from this average. Will it today?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:03:47 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:01:29 PM
Jan. Unleaded Gas (hu05f) $1.3325 +2.58% ... right at its DAILY R2 of $1.3326.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  12:00:22 PM
Oil stronger in DAILY Pivot .... Jan. Oil exceeded DAILY R2 of $49.63, but Jan. Heating Oil hasn't traded its DAILY R2 of $1.507 at this point. Session high for heating oil has been $1.499

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  11:51:49 AM
Stratasys (SSYS) $31.94 -0.24% .... just sitting here at BLUE #1 of $31.95.

January Oil did see trade at WEEKLY R1 of $50.16.

January Heating oil $1.495 +2.17% ... not close to its WEEKLY R1 of $1.556. WEEKLY Pivot at $1.437.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  11:49:18 AM
The 30 min cycle downphase is still in its early stages, the oscillators not even past the midpoint yet. I expect only the weakest of short cycle bounces within it, and QQQ 38.80 hasn't yet been touched. That level and 38.88-.90 are new resistance, with the declining 30 min channel down to 39.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  11:46:54 AM
The OEX's rise off this morning's low has been tepid to say the least, but Keltner resistance lines are beginning to separate above the OEX, suggesting that it might find it slightly easier to rise than it did a few minutes ago. Keltner line suggest this only, and that suggestion might be erased if the Keltner lines reconfigure themselves.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  11:25:45 AM
The OEX has approached the 558.50-ish downside target predicted when the double-top was confirmed, so bears who entered on a rollover beneath the 562.50-ish zone have a decision to make. Do you automatically take whole or partial profits? Do you hedge in some way? Tighten stops or widen them? Have a plan in mind for handling this test.

What are other possible downside targets? The 15-minute chart shows next Keltner support at 558.32 and several others show downside targets slightly lower, near 557.60-558. A break below that 15-minute Keltner supporting line currently at 558.32 (on a 15-minute close) suggests a test of 556.40. This is a light-volume day, however, and anything can and might happen.

What about resistance? Kelner resistance lies just overhead, near 559. If that's breached to the upside, resistance occurs again near 559.80 and tries to firm near 560.50-561.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  11:24:17 AM
The new session low is at 38.61. This is confluence support from yesterday's range. If it fails to hold, 38.48 should be tested quickly thereafter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  11:11:47 AM
The OEX has now moved below the bull flag by about the same amount that it had broken above it earlier. Fake-outs each time? It's possible. Today feels like and has so far been a dangerous trading day. So far, the OEX remains below the flag's support, with the play working for those brave enough to enter a bearish play on a rollover beneath the 562.50-ish zone, but watch for another potential reversal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  11:11:05 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  11:07:50 AM
QQQ stopped at 38.71 on the initial plunge, but the 30 min cycle oscillators had been very toppy before the drop commenced. Both the 30 min and short cycle oscillators have plenty of room left to run to the downside from here, with the 60 min channel only now starting its rollover. The more important test will be at yesterday's low in the 38.48 area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  11:04:36 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:55:18 AM
The OEX confirms the double-top formation. The TRAN also breaks below its confirmation level for the double-top formation. Those who entered a bearish position on the second rollover beneath the 562.50-ish level had their first wishes met, but keep an eye on TRIN.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:54:09 AM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,174.45, QQQ $38.84

Oil on the rise

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  10:53:44 AM
QQQ's losing 38.90. Next support is 38.80, below which 38.64 and 38.50 come into view.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:51:28 AM
That rectangular formation that I've pointed out on the OEX's five-minute chart could be an inverse H&S building. The TRAN's analogous formation had looked as if it might be, but the TRAN fell too low, so that's why I'm leaning toward the "rectangular" diagnosis.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  10:50:50 AM
The USD Index (30 min delayed refreshable chart at this Link ) has been drilled to new lows at 82.82. currently bouncing. 83.00-83.10 is new resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:47:40 AM
Swing trade bullish call exit alert .... selling two (2) of the four (4) SIRI Mar. $5 Calls (QXO-CA) at the bid of $2.05.

SIRI $6.50 +9.04% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:46:10 AM
The OEX heads down to test the confirmation level for the double-top formation. That confirmation level is 560.45. That would set up a downside target about two points below the confirmation level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:44:02 AM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Stratasys (SSYS) $32.19 +0.53% .... to $31.90

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  10:39:06 AM
Session high for Nymex crude here at 49.525.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:36:53 AM
The TRAN has been building a rectangular consolidation zone at the top of its climb off yesterday's low and perhaps that's what the OEX is now in the process of doing, too. If so, we'll at least be able to watch for a breakout one direction or another. If you decided to enter a bearish position on this second rollover beneath the 562.50-ish zone, you want to see the OEX confirm that double-top formation, with a move below 560.45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  10:29:02 AM
QQQ overshot 39.12 by 3 cents and is down to 39.06 currently. A short cycle downphase will start on a break below 39.00 for 5 minutes or better. 38.90 is support below that. Sideways chop from here should favor the bears as the very-toppy 30 min cycle is out of racetrack.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:24:58 AM
The OEX now attempts a breakout above yesterday's high. If it's sustained, the cup-and-handle formation sets a potential upside target of just under 567, but it hasn't been sustained yet, and I'm not all that confident that it will be or will meet the upside target. So far, this is a dangerous day, with the potential for a double-top about as likely as that for a sustained confirmation of the cup-and-handle formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:21:32 AM
The OEX did break above the top of the presumed bull flag and did break above the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 11/17 high. However, it has not yet been able to break above yesterday's high, much less the potential resistance in the 563-564 zone. Like everything else today, evidence remains mixed. There's now the potential for a double-top formation. This type of behavior corroborates my hesitancy in suggesting a long play today . . . or almost any play today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:20:34 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  10:13:25 AM
QQQ is testing 39.12 resistance here. Provided that this level doesn't break, it should mark the 30 min cycle top. If not, next resistance comes at 39.28.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:13:24 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:12:10 AM
After testing the flag's support for much of the morning, the OEX now rises to test that potential bull flag's resistance as well as the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 11/17 high, with that retracement level being at just over 562. A move over yesterday's high would appear to confirm the cup-and-handle formation on the OEX's five-minute chart, but the OEX will then soon face resistance again in the 563-564 region. Decide ahead of time if you want to commit funds to an iffy play on a light-volume holiday week with unseen currency manipulations being at least partly responsible for some market moves. The play appears sound on a pure intraday chart basis, but when zooming out to a daily chart, some concerns arise. If you're going to go long based on an intraday chart pattern, be ready to jump right back out if the market reverses and the chart pattern breakout no longer exists.

Those bears looking for a new rollover entry should be watching carefully for a potential rollover, too, although market conditions give no more clarity on bearish plays than on bullish ones right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:10:45 AM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert .... for Stratasys (SSYS) $32.35 +0.71% .... to break even. BLUE #2 $32.15.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:07:33 AM
The TRAN tests 3600 again, with the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 3596.25 and 3594.91, respectively. I'm watching the TRAN as a measure of how other indices might react, as it sometimes leads the Dow and S&P's, being a bellwether index. The current rise had looked like a bear flag rise off the day's low, but the TRAN is trying for a stronger rise now, attempting to break to the upside. It's at 3603.64 as I type.

Still no clarity on the day's action.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:03:13 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  10:00:35 AM
Existing home sales 6.75M, as expected.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  9:56:34 AM
4 minutes to go until existing home sales, est. 6.75M.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  9:55:58 AM
The Fed has just replaced 9.75B in expiring repos with 7.5B in 3-day repos for a net drain of 2.25B for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:53:31 AM
Remember that the OEX's 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 11/17 high lies at just over 562. A break above that 38.2% retracement signals an upside break out of the potential bull flag.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:48:24 AM
The OEX still tests the potential bull flag's support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:43:07 AM
We have a mixture of evidence in the internals this morning, so the cash open isn't clarifying things much.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:41:27 AM
The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 560.55 and 560.74 this morning, respectively, with the potential flag's support near the 100-ema on that chart. A break below the five-minute 100-ema suggests a downside break out of that potential bull flag, then, but be wary of a potential reversal because I wouldn't be surprised to see a trap or two along the way today. So far, the OEX balances on that 100-ema.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  9:41:07 AM
The low Nasdaq TRIN level shows strong buying pressure, possibly in a low-priced/high volume stock. I say this because the Nasdaq is looking toppy and weak this morning, but the .49 TRINQ reading shows a predominance of buying pressure. When/if that lets go, the TRINQ will rise and the price decline should accelerate.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  9:39:14 AM
Stratasys (SSYS) $31.93 -0.28% .... opening 5-minute bar was from $31.75-$31.95.

DAILY Pivot levels as follows .... $30.16, $31.08, Piv = $31.98, $32.89, $33.78.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:37:23 AM
The TRAN turns down toward another test of 3600, at 3603.59 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  9:37:08 AM
Jupitermedia (JUPM) $17.25 +2.67% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:36:07 AM
The SOX steadies between the 200-ema and the 200-sma, in limbo.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  9:35:48 AM
Ten year bonds have erased yesterday's gains and are currently testing 4.2% resistance, up 4.4 bps or 1.06% at 4.209%, with ZN4Z down .296 at 1112.125, a session low. QQQ bounced from 38.90 support, the current low of the day, but it needs to clear 39.01 to have a shot at 39.12 resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  9:35:43 AM
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $6.58 +10% .... March $5 calls (QXO-CA) bidding $2.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:33:56 AM
If the OEX's pullback is a bull flag, it's been testing the bottom support of that flag. It's also testing Keltner and historical support near 560-560.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  9:13:19 AM
Futures aren't giving us much guidance this morning. Neither are European markets, coiling as they test this morning's gap. Neither is the dollar, first zooming lower against other currencies and then retracing a hefty proportion of the loss since the European open. With that kind of evidence before us this morning, along with the inconsistencies and expected light volume I noted in my 21:26 post, it's difficult at this point to make any judgments about what might happen after the cash open. I think we're just going to have to take a look. The possibility exists that the OEX began a rollover from the 562-562.50 zone, but it looks almost as likely that the OEX will confirm a cup-and-handle formation and move at least high enough to test the 563.50-564 zone. Be careful making assumptions today, and remember that the dollar's performance against other currencies is the backdrop against which many market moves take place.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  9:04:20 AM
The 30 min cycle upphase has grown very toppy on the oscillators and is currently weakening on the channels, with channel support now flat at 38.78, resistance 39.12. A move below 38.90 for 5-10 minutes should be enough to roll the channel over.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  8:17:05 AM
Session high for Dec. gold at 450 here, +1.20. Nymex crude is at a session high of 48.70, with QQQ trading 5 cents lower at 39.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/23/20,  7:53:53 AM
Equities are lower, ES at 1176.5, NQ 1568.5, YM 10488 and QQQ flat at 39.05. Gold is up 80 cents to 449.60, silver 5 cents to 7.62, ten year notes down .156 to 112.266 and crude oil -.025 at 48.625. Euros and CAD are both up.

We await the 10AM release of existing home sales for Oct., est. 6.75M.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/23/20,  6:54:21 AM
Oil has been acting just as I projected a few weeks ago. I pointed out on 11/16 3:58 MM post the H&S patterns occurring on the WTIC. Again on 11/17 12:40 chart. Murphy oil took off right from that 100-ema. Several charts attached, showing those original projections. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  6:33:02 AM
Good morning. With the dollar steadying yesterday and crude easing off yesterday's high, most global bourses gained. The Nikkei was closed last night for a one-day holiday, but other Asian markets except China turned in positive performances. Most European markets currently trade in the green, too, although as I type, the dollar weakens and some European bourses are moving off their day's highs. Our futures have mostly stayed steady through the night, but have dipped into negative territory as the dollar began dropping. As of 6:26 EST, gold was down $1.00, and crude, down $0.01. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Currency issues remain foremost among economists across the globe. After this weekend's G20 meeting ended without a consensus on how to address the weakening dollar, South Korea's government asked its central bank to step in, presumably by intervening to shore up the dollar against the won by printing more won. South Korea's exporters rebounded after yesterday's drubbing, and most Asian bourses gained.

The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.22%, but South Korea's Kospi gained a more robust 1.22%. Singapore's prime minister believes the government's 3-5% forecast for 2005's economic growth was conservative, one report said, and the Straits Times gained 0.48%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.61%, but China's Shanghai Composite was one of the few Asian bourses turning in negative performances, declining 0.85%.

Currently, most European bourses trade in the green, but many are off their highs of the day as the dollar weakens and perhaps also due to disappointment in the final estimate for Germany's Q3 GDP. That final estimate shows the German economy flat-lining, with growth at a tepid 0.1% quarter-over-quarter. Techs and financials have been credited with leading gains in Europe this morning. Ahead of an analyst meeting, Philips Electronics noted the restructuring steps it would take to cut costs over the next three to four years, and the company's stock inched higher. Germany's Deutsche Bank also noted cost-cutting measures it intended to enact, including job cuts. In other stock-specific news, J.P. Morgan trimmed its rating on Deutsche Telekom to a neutral rating from its previous overweight rating, also trimming its EBITDA estimates for 2005-2006.

As of 6:26 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 15.30 points or 0.32%, at 4,748.40. The CAC 40 was higher by 17.42 points or 0.46%, at 3,791.67. The DAX was higher by 11.23 points or 0.27%, at 4,135.21.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/22/20,  9:26:34 PM
Today, the OEX pulled back from its test of the 562-562.50 level, with that pullback coming just where bears would have liked. This morning, I detailed a possible bearish entry on a rollover from that very area, but by this afternoon, I wasn't sure that it was a rollover we were seeing, and noted my uncertainty. The bounce hadn't taken the form of a measured distribution pattern, with no zigging and zagging in a tight pattern of higher highs and higher lows, a possible bear flag. Instead, the 15-minute chart shows a pattern of entirely white candles until the pullback began. That pullback perhaps takes the form of a bull flag pulling back from resistance, although that pattern, too, doesn't quite take the right form. It's too broad a flag in comparison to the narrowness of the rise off the low. So, the shape of the rise was more bullish than bears would like, and the shape of the potential bull flag was less bullish than they would like.

Like several other indices, the OEX appears to be forming a cup-and-handle formation, with a break over Monday's high confirming that formation. An upside breakout above Monday's high confirms the cup-and-handle formation and sets an upside target about 4.5 points above the breakout level, although I suspect that 563-564 might actually prove difficult resistance.

Still, the pullback did occur where expected, and the OEX could not close above the midpoint of Friday's long red candle, closing in the lower or bearish half. We're still looking at the possibility of a rollover that began near 562.50 and might be vulnerable to a pullback to the 555-556 level. We'll look at the possibility tomorrow that another rollover from beneath 562.50 or from slightly higher, 563-564, might make an appropriate bearish entry. We'll also examine the possibility that we should consider bullish entries on an upside breakout out of that potential cup-and-handle formation. We'll try to be careful, though, because light volume is going to mean that markets can get pushed around a lot. They can appear to confirm a formation only to shoot the opposite direction.

Futures aren't much guide as I type, and may wander aimlessly until the European open, as the Nikkei will not trade tonight due to a one-day holiday. Tomorrow morning, let's look again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  9:16:05 PM
Jan. Crude Oil futures (cl05f) $48.31 -0.67% (down 33 cents) ... WEEKLY Pivot levels as follows ... $44.18, $46.56, Piv= $47.78, $50.16, $51.38.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/22/20,  8:31:48 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/22/20,  6:16:05 PM
Alert - Semi Book-to-Bill came in at 0.96. Last months number was revised down to 0.94 and the low for the year from 0.96. This should be neutral for tomorrow's trading.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/22/20,  5:30:15 PM
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