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  OI Technical Staff   11/24/20,  8:07:29 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  4:50:18 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  4:09:08 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Did place a stop on the APA Jan. $50 Calls (APA-AJ) at $3.40.

2-day swing trade bullish for Check Point Software (CHKP) at $24.20, stop $23.95, and looking to sell some holiday cheer at $23.95 on Friday.

Here's my "swing trader's chart" of CHKP, with target zone of $24.90 (WEEKLY R1) to conventional 80.9% ($25.11) retracement of July high to recent August low. Link

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  4:00:05 PM
Happy Thanksgiving, all. To those subscribers in other countries not celebrating our Thanksgiving, enjoy the time away from the (U.S.) markets.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:57:01 PM
Barring a pullback before the close, the TRAN will close again at a new recent daily closing high. It's at the 3647-3648 resistance that figured in several monthly candles in 1998 and 1999, and is at levels not seen since then. If it should close this month above 3647.29, that would be the highest close for the TRAN in all of the time that Q-Charts followed the TRAN back, so back to 1997. It's reached higher highs during a month, but hasn't had a monthly close above that in all that time. The TRAN is definitely reaching into potential double-top level or potential new-breakout level. The TRAN is at 3649.59 as I type.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  3:52:10 PM
Jump'n Jupiter! (JUPM) 16.43 +0.06% to the close. First bullish thing is one's done in several day. ;(

Hasn't acted well since the company said they were spending all that cash ($7.3 million) on the remaining shares of Hemera

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:51:45 PM
The GHA moved high enough today to nix the whole potential evening-star scenario. It's above 300 as I type, at 303.59.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  3:50:20 PM
Drug Index (DRG.X) 298.56 -0.06% ... only equity sector in the red. Any bets on the last 10-minutes?

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  3:48:42 PM
Domestic turkey hunters can be stupid too Keene. Why just this spring, a turkey hunter I know fell asleep as a big tom turkey strutted in front of him for 15-minutes (so say his companions), then trotted off undetected by the hunter.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  3:41:01 PM
Here's the light volume drift back below the breakout point. This is trading like an afterhours session at this point.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:39:20 PM
And the OEX pulls back from its attempted breakout, back below 562.50 again. The TRAN pulls back, too. Neither has pulled back far--just back below the breakout zone.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  3:32:32 PM
QQQ's just invalidated the h&s pattern and, unless it whips down now, looks to be playing out the rising triangle breakout scenario. Channel resistance is up to 39.45 currently.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:30:52 PM
The OEX is trying to break to the upside again. The TRAN has led the way, already breaking to a new day's high. The GHA is attempting to match its earlier day's high, too.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  3:29:11 PM
Session high for NQ and QQQ as QQQ retests 39.34.

  Keene Little   11/24/20,  3:23:01 PM
Domestic turkeys are actually pretty stupid (whether it's true or not I don't know, but I've heard they've been known to drown in the rain because they look up, mouths agape, wondering what's hitting them on the head). When I was flying in the Navy, we all had to know where the turkey farms were when we flew low-level missions. If we buzzed overhead, thousands of turkeys would drop dead from a heart attack. The Navy didn't like having to pay for "prize" turkeys.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:21:29 PM
We could have a contest and guess how long it takes for the markets to finally move a certain range. Other than that, this is the deadly dull kind of trading that we expect to see on a pre-holiday trading day. It's either that or volatility that comes out of nowhere, and personally, I'll take this instead. I know to expect it and don't try to trade it when I see a minor move, but on those volatility-out-of-nowhere days, when you see things breaking, perhaps "the" break you've expected to see, you either have to jump on it or risk missing out on that move, and that can eat up an account fast in choppy trading conditions.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  3:11:38 PM
Linda, I saw some wild turkeys in Asia when I was a fit twenty-something year old, and it was among the most intimidating encounters I experienced there.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:09:42 PM
I'm afraid that I don't have good memories of live turkeys. I'm going to sound older than my actual 54 years, but when I was young, some of my Louisiana relatives still had outhouses. One of those relatives raised turkeys, and to get to the outhouse, you had to maneuver through what seemed like a gazillion turkeys milling about. Try being five and facing down a bunch of those things Jonathan pictured in his 15:00 post. A "city" girl by my relatives' standards, my grandmother's chickens scared me badly enough and the turkeys terrified me.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  3:06:03 PM
I think so. They must be passing out tablets of it in the QQQ pit for the past hour :)

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  3:05:02 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:04:32 PM
Yes, isn't that the amino acid (L-trytophan) that tells us it's nap time after Thanksgiving dinner?

  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:03:37 PM
A few Thanksgiving facts straight from the US Census Bureau:

14.0 pounds
The quantity of turkey consumed by the typical American in 2002 and, if tradition be true, a hearty helping of it was devoured at Thanksgiving time. Per capita turkey consumption is virtually the same as in 1990 (13.8 pounds), but 70 percent higher than in 1980 (8.1 pounds). On the other hand, per capita sweet potato consumption is 3.7 pounds a year, down slightly from 1990 (4.6 pounds) and 1980 (4.4 pounds). (From the upcoming Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2004-2005.)

That's a lot of pies...
805 million pounds of pumpkins
Total production of major pumpkin-producing states in 2003. Illinois, with a production of 326 million pounds, led the country. There also were a whole lot of pumpkin patches in California, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New York. Each produced at least 70 million pounds of pumpkin. The value of all the pumpkins produced by these states was $81 million. Pumpkin pie is a traditional Thanksgiving Day dessert.

Source: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  3:03:21 PM
I believe it's the amino acid L-tryptophan that causes the "turkey buzz" we all enjoy. Cranberry, peas, gravy... what a fine holiday this is.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:01:45 PM
Nice photo, Jon. It's very clear.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:00:51 PM
A few Thanksgiving facts straight from the US Census Bureau:

263 million turkeys
The preliminary estimate of the number of turkeys raised in the United States in 2004. That’s down 4 percent from 2003. The turkeys produced in 2003 weighed 7.5 billion pounds altogether and were valued at $2.7 billion

658 million pounds of cranberries
The forecast for U.S. cranberry production in 2004, up 6 percent from 2003. Wisconsin is expected to lead all states in the production of cranberries, with 356 million pounds, followed by Massachusetts (180 million), Oregon (55 million), New Jersey (48 million) and Washington (19 million).

1.6 billion pounds of sweet potatoes
The total weight of sweet potatoes — another popular Thanksgiving staple — produced in the United States in 2003. North Carolina (588 million pounds) produced more sweet potatoes than any other state. It was followed by Louisiana and California (each with around 310 million pounds) and Mississippi (238 million).

Source: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  3:00:08 PM
Here's a photo for the holiday, James: Link

  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:58:53 PM
A few Thanksgiving facts straight from the US Census Bureau:

What many regard as the nation’s first Thanksgiving took place in December 1621 as the religious separatist Pilgrims held a three-day feast to celebrate a bountiful harvest. The day did not become a national holiday until 1863 when President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed the last Thursday of November as a national day of thanksgiving. Later, President Franklin Roosevelt clarified that Thanksgiving should always be celebrated on the fourth Thursday of the month, not on the occasional fifth, to encourage earlier holiday shopping.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  2:58:30 PM
QQQ's either printing a very high right shoulder below 39.30 on the intraday chart, or it's testing the upper resistance line on a bullish ascending triangle. A move above 39.34 should establish the bulls in the driver's seat, but I don't know if there's enough potential volume left to do it with any certainty. Only 58M QQQ shares so far today.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:57:50 PM
Thanks James. If EOG's going to $105, then I've got to think Nat. Gas gets back above $9.00-$9.10.

Either economy really heating up at industrial level, or cold winter in the midwest. Or both!

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:53:46 PM
Swing trade raise bullish stop alert .... for the one (1) APA Jan. $50 Call (APA-AJ) to break-even.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:52:34 PM
In my 13:57 post, I mentioned that the OEX appeared to be settling into an equilibrium position and with regard to its Keltner charts and that it might oscillate in a tight, 2.10-point channel. Since then, it's had a 1.11-point range, even tighter than expected.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:52:20 PM
The P&F bullish target on OI call play EOG is $105.00. Shares are currently trading at $75.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:51:40 PM
The pre-Thanksgiving rally may not be very strong but at least it's widespread. Only the XAU gold index and the DRG drug index are trading lower.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:46:55 PM
Jan. Natural Gas futures (ng05f) Point and figure chart from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

James! What's the bullish vertical count on EOG?

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:43:25 PM
The GHA is still climbing, at 303.92 as I type, just off the day's high. That climb had looked like a rising wedge, a form that shows some weakness, but then the GHA has broken through to the upside rather than the downside. Watch for the potential that this is another of those bull traps that we've seen over the last few days (seen a number of bear traps, too) in some indices.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:42:42 PM
The TRAN does appear to have confirmed its H&S, seen on the five-minute chart, but now comes right back up to retest the neckline. The location of that neckline is debatable, which is the reason that I used the word "appear."

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:34:14 PM
The OEX still can't get far from 562-562.50.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:28:54 PM
Working on Jan. Nat. Gas futures point and figure chart. Looks like a "bear trap" with some rally potential to $9.00

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  2:26:47 PM
The US Dollar Index got clocked again last night, and on my 30-min delayed chart, is currently testing the day lows in the 82.35 area Link . The headlines are trumpeting gold's new 16 closing high of 449.30. Euros are firm above 1.31, possibly a record closing high, and CAD is also at a new 15+ year high at .8474 currently.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:26:30 PM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,180.17 , QQQ $39.25.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:26:27 PM
Copper is turning in another strong day (+1.48%) but Phelps Dodge (PD) is still struggling under the $99-100 level.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:18:13 PM
January Nat. Gas futures (ng05f) .... 30-minute interval chart at this Link

(see 02:10:59)

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  2:14:09 PM
Bonds have finished their shortened session with TNX up 1.1 bps at 4.15%, ZN4Z down .078 at 112.25.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:13:23 PM
Here are examples of two fake-out moves over the last couple of days: Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:10:59 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

Just noticing the CRB Index "jump" from 12:00-01:00 ... Somebody lit a match to January Natural Gas futures (ng05f) $8.47 +11.14%.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:02:38 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:58:05 PM
Not sure if you've heard this yet but Target (TGT) is offering shoppers a free "wake up" call on Friday. Talk about a pro-active plan to get customers into your store!

Customers can sign up for a wake up call from nine different "spokespersons" ranging from rapper Ice-T, actor Cheech Marin, super-model Heidi Klum, jedi-master Darth Vader, and others including a construction worker, a crying baby to a chicken.

Customers can sign up at Target's homepage.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  1:58:04 PM
January Crude Oil futures (cl05f) updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  1:57:58 PM
Session high for Nymex crude here at 49.40.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:57:48 PM
At about 561.30, the OEX should hit Keltner mid-channel support. Once the OEX begins settling into an equilibrium position within its Keltner channels, however, as it may be doing now, it tends to oscillate from one side to another of its middle channel, now about 2.10 points wide, crossing through the mid-channel S/R as if it weren't there. We may see some oscillation, then, within a channel demarked by lines that are now at 560.73 and 562.84. That is, of course, unless the OEX is about to break out of that equilibrium positions.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:49:34 PM
Best Buy Co (BBY) continues to slip with JPMorgan starting coverage today with an "under weight". BBY has broken its three-month up trend and technicals are negative.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:47:40 PM
On the busiest travel day of the year the XAL airline index is up 2.65% and working on its third day in a bounce from its 21-dma.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:45:46 PM
The OEX just can't seem to get far away from that 562-562.50 zone, can it?

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  1:45:13 PM
Check Point Soft. (CHKP) $25.25 +1.08% .... just tested morning high of $24.30.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  1:44:02 PM
TRIN alert! 0.95 ... and afternoon low. Might be seeing a "buy side" bias begin to take hold.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:43:43 PM
Patterson (Dental) Companies (PDCO) is up 3.69% and reversing an early morning loss on strong volume. Shares are breaking out from its eight-month trading range to push through resistance at $40.00. This is a new triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart.

The company reported earnings this morning that missed analysts' estimates by a penny. Yet revenues were up 21% and came in above estimates.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:39:36 PM
With average volume of 21,000 shares traded a day and a float of just 5 million shares Starcraft Corp (STCR) is getting a big boost with a 20% rally to $14.46 on volume almost 20 times the norm. The company is being acquired by Quantum Fuel Systems in a stock swap worth $185 million.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:36:04 PM
The Nasdaq is again rising toward a test of 2100, at 2099.47 as I type.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:35:51 PM
CSFB has upgraded Digital River (DRIV) to an "out perform" with a $47 price target. The stock is responding with a 9.6% rally to breakout over resistance at $40.00 to hit new multi-year highs.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:32:09 PM
CNBC is talking about Intel (INTC) right now. The daily chart of INTC appears to have a double-top at the $25.00 level with the latest peak bolstered by the simple 200-dma.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:30:33 PM
The TRAN is headed higher again, again showing the possibility of a H&S on the top of its climb off yesterday's last five-minute low. If it reaches a new high, that possible formation is negated. The TRAN is at 3648.24 as I type, with the day's high at 3649.42.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:27:46 PM
Express Scripts (ESRX) issued in-line guidance today and two brokers downgraded the stock. shares are down 3% and breaking support at $72, the 200-dma and the $70.00 level.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  1:26:36 PM
The CRB has broken 290, currently up 1.90 at 290.62, led by natgas and live cattle futures. This is a new 24+ year for the commodities index.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  1:20:33 PM
The market's grown quiet, with QQQ continuing its low volume, uncertain drift higher. The last wavelet dip breached 39.20, but price is back to a test of 39.28 currently. The 30 minute cycle oscillators are in overbought territory, no sign of a turn yet, but a sideways drift for the next hour or so would be compatible with a top forming in that cycle. A retest of last week's high, forming a triple top, would work for the daily cycle top as well, but the pattern of rising lows since last week is troublesome. Bears do not want to see a close above the 39.30 level.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:16:06 PM
Here's why trading is so dangerous today. This morning, the OEX clearly confirmed the inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, but it went nowhere. This afternoon, it's confirmed the small H&S on its five-minute chart, but it's also going nowhere. As I warned might happen this morning, you see sound formations set up but the follow-through just doesn't happen. At least not yet.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:12:36 PM
Well, the oil-related ones are!

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:10:32 PM
James, it sounds as if all those OI call plays you mentioned are performing well. Congratulations.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  1:08:30 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:04:23 PM
The OEX is breaking through the neckline of that smaller H&S formation on the five-minute chart. I want to emphasize again that on a day like today, you can't count on the OEX achieving its 559-ish downside target. It may and it may not. It's just too easy to push the markets around on a day like today.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:03:08 PM
OI call play SLB is out performing its peers in the oil services sector. SLB is up 1.25% and nearing the $67 level.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:02:09 PM
OI call play QCOM is out performing today with a 2% gain to $41.55, which is a four-week high.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:00:59 PM
OI call play MUR is also showing strength with another 1.11% gain and a breakout over the $85.00 level.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  12:58:53 PM
The OEX trades sideways as the Keltner channels narrow around it. I think the goal of the powers-that-be in the financial world will be to keep everything on hold now. If they're successful, we'll see the indices continue to trade in tight ranges for the rest of the day while oscillators flatten. I keep watching patterns set up all day, not mentioning all of them such as the small H&S now visible on the five-minute chart (not the same one to which I referred earlier today) because they tend to set up and then shift, like clouds on a windy day. However, I had to mention that small H&S because the OEX is currently testing its neckline, at just about 562. The downside target would be a minimal one, at about 559, and whether any targets--bullish or bearish--will be met today is questionable.

  James Brown   11/24/20,  12:57:56 PM
OI call play EOG is not slowing down. Shares are up another 1.33% and breaking out over the $75 level. Short-term traders can consider exiting now for a profit. Shares are up from our $68.37 entry point.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  12:54:21 PM
12:50 PM Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  12:44:32 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  12:43:54 PM
QQQ's drifting back and forth past 39.28, but has been holding above 38.18-.20 confluence from this morning's run. The 30 min channel is flattening at the top, and if bears can get south of 39.18 for 10 minutes or better, that channel should roll over.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  12:43:53 PM
The GHA is above 300, at 302.04 as I type, nearer its 302.49 high of the day than its 299.31 low of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  12:30:54 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  12:23:06 PM
The TRAN did not form a H&S as I thought it might. Instead, it formed a rising wedge. Those wedges are usually bearish and the TRAN did break to the downside, but it's traded sort of sideways down since, not doing much of anything. It's that kind of day, but keep watching.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  12:11:05 PM
Depending on one's bias, it's possible to look at the OEX and discover either bullish or bearish patterns in the formations setting up. Even if one is disciplined about setting hard stops, all those little losses can add up on a day like today. Be careful.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  12:07:50 PM
Bullish 2-day long alert .... for shares of Check Point Software (CHKP) $24.20 here, stop $23.95, target $24.95 by Friday's close.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  12:05:32 PM
QQQ's just drifted back below 39.28. Classic light volume action with QQQ trading just 41M shares so far against an ADV of 106M. Below 39.18, a short cycle downphase should kick off.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:55:10 AM
In the middle of its day's range, the OEX just isn't doing much of anything, either direction. That middle of the range level for the day continues the look of a bear flag on the OEX's daily chart, rising from Monday's low. The day is far from over, however, and today's candle could do anything. So far, the look of this rise off the Monday's low isn't looking particularly bullish in shape.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  11:53:15 AM
QQQ made it to 39.34, but has only pulled back 4 cents. The short cycle oscillators are just entering overbought territory now, but have not yet maxxed out, leaving room for a push to to 30 min cycle channel top at 39.40.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  11:49:35 AM
I'm going to be out of the office on Friday. However, I'm going to profile a bullish swing trade (for today entry and Friday exit) that would look to take advantage of a bullish tendency for institutional selling to become very light for the last 1/2 of today's session (big guns head out early for 4.5-day Thanksgiving break), and bullishness takes hold into Friday's close as bulk of last minute selling/fine tuning has been taken care of earlier in the week.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:38:33 AM
Over the last hour, the OEX has been balancing on mid-channel support (currently at 561.45) on the 15-minute chart, but it hasn't been able to move far above that support. Mixed evidence.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  11:29:13 AM
QQQ is testing the 39.28 level now on a pickup in volume. A break above targets 39.40 as next resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  11:23:03 AM
The American Petroleum Institute data is delayed.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:19:27 AM
Watch for the possibility that the TRAN is building a H&S at the top of its rise on its five-minute chart. The head hasn't yet finished forming, so this is just pure speculation at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  11:14:39 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  11:07:37 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $37.91 +0.58% ... fractional gain. On Monday, FRX came close to its bearish vertical count.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  11:06:20 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $26.61 -1.07% .... new 52-weeker

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:05:15 AM
TRIN is zooming up again over the last five minutes, but not at the high of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  11:03:39 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

No buy/sell program premiums since the buy premium at the opening bell.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:01:04 AM
Here's the OEX's H&S I've been mentioning, as seen on the 60-minute chart: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:56:10 AM
This has been cup & handle week, apparently, and it's looking like the latest one has key resistance at 39.28. A break above that level on expanding volume could mean a whole new dimension of pain for bears, as the pullback off the high continues to chop along uncertainly in a bull-flaggish range. 30 min channel support is at 39.40 currently, which should be easily attainable on a high volume break of 39.28.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:55:04 AM
The OEX had to test the bottom of this morning's gap: that's short-term bearish. The OEX sprang up from that support: that's short-term bullish. Mixed signals again so far. We're seeing a number of five- and even fifteen-minute candles with long upper or lower shadows or both, which says to me that the indecision still remains.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:47:29 AM
The OEX's seven-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX might find support somewhere between its current low of the day and 560.85, and might attempt a bounce from there, with that bounce perhaps already having begun. First resistance is at 561.98, being tested as I type (Note: the OEX may be pulling back from that test), with perhaps more significant resistance near 562.90. All those resistance lines still turn higher, so it's not clear yet whether they'll hold the OEX back or not. This still feels as if it could be a shoulder-building, choppy process for that regular, topping H&S. Although I hesitate to sound like a broken record, we still have the historical tendencies and low volume to contend with today, however, so don't get married to any one viewpoint just because a chart suggests it as a possibility.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:42:55 AM
The OEX again tests the bottom of this morning's gap.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:39:01 AM
The OEX has fallen to test this morning's gap, and bounced modestly from bottom-of-the-gap support, but hasn't quite cleared the top of the gap yet. It's still uncertain what will happen next, but bulls shouldn't feel happy at the test of the bottom-of-the-gap level. If the OEX were performing particularly strongly, it wouldn't have needed to do that. The jury is still out as to whether the OEX is building a right shoulder on that 60-minute chart. We do know one thing, though: so far, it has not paid to buy a breakout above 562.50.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:35:24 AM
The TRAN drops, but not much yet. The focus this time of year is not on gasoline stocks as much as on distillates, which include heating oil, and that's where the disappointment was, at least according to CNBC.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:34:08 AM
QQQ has just lost 39.12 support.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:33:34 AM




10:32am JAN CRUDE IS DOWN 74C AT $48.20/BRL IN NY

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:31:32 AM
The SOX remains trapped between its 200-ema and 200-sma this morning, with those averages at 426.22 and 440.00, respectively, and with the SOX at 432.50. It's spent quite a bit of time between these averages this last week.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:29:22 AM
Tyson Foods (TSN) $16.61 +3.10% Link ....

  Mark Davis   11/24/20,  10:24:15 AM
You beat me to the punch on the Nymex number Jonathan...

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:21:28 AM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 48.425.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:20:12 AM
The GHA is above 300 again, at 300.69 as I type, but off the day's high. Yesterday, the GHA printed a doji at the top of its climb after printing an bullish engulfing candle the day before. I had questioned whether the candle might actually be a bearish last engulfing candle (coming after a strong climb) and have been watching for potential reversal signals. Yesterday's doji was a possibility, and today's slightly lower open fit the parameter for an evening-star formation. However, the climb since the open questions that outcome. Strictly speaking, the GHA should have dropped all day. Nison himself suggests giving some leeway to indices, but the possibility of a reversal signal in this star of the tech indices lately is still not settled.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:19:37 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:11:30 AM
If the OEX is in the process of building a right shoulder for its potential topping H&S formation on its 60-minute chart, which I believe is at least within the real of possibility (bearish divergence as head was formed on 60-minute chart, etc.), then it's hesitating where it should be hesitating. A breakout much above 564, if sustained, would tend to negate the formation. I'd like to be bullish, but I just can't be with that formation staring us in the face and not yet rejected. When volume is low, sentiment sometimes overcomes what's showing up on the chart developments, but this just doesn't encourage me to suggest jumping into long positions right here.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:05:37 AM
QQQ held 39.12 for the retest. Bears will be hoping for a lower high below 39.27 on this bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:05:12 AM
SPX Dec. 1,200 call (SZP-LT) saw OI increase to 59,549.

Analysis still of put sellers and call buyers opening new positions.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:05:10 AM
The Fed has added today 17.5B in various repos against 12.25B expiring, for a net add of 5.25B for the day.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:04:26 AM
Ahead of the inventories number, the TRAN has bested the 11/17 high, and it hasn't pulled back much, either. That inventories number better not disappoint.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:03:34 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:02:20 AM
The OEX continues lower. Pop and drop? It's a possibility, but if in the market today, I'd be prepared for "pop and chop." I don't think the bulls expecting the traditional Thanksgiving market cheer have quite settled matters with the bears thinking markets are near a top, but the action this morning tends to favor the bears slightly more than the bulls, perhaps.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:00:41 AM
SPX Dec. 1,175 puts (SPT-XO) saw OI increase to 55,778

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:00:39 AM

10:00am U.S. OCT. NEW HOME SALES UP 0.2% TO 1.226 MLN UNITS

10:00am U.S. OCT. MEDIAN SALES PRICE UP 9.1% TO 221,800


  Jim Brown   11/24/20,  10:00:24 AM
Help Wanted Index = 37, (last 36)
Monthly Mass Layoffs = 1,241, (last 708)
New Home Sales = +0.2% 1.226M,
(est 1.2M, last 1.206M)

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:58:26 AM
VIX.X 12.73 +0.55% .... DAILY Pivot levels ... 12.38, 12.53, Piv = 12.72, 12.87, 13.06.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:57:39 AM
The dollar continues to weaken.

  Tab Gilles   11/24/20,  9:57:01 AM
NDX nearing a top? Link

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:53:57 AM
So far, the OEX remains above the breakout zone above the neckline of the inverse H&S on its intraday charts, but it's testing that neckline now, during the first retracement of the day. Bulls want to see this former resistance hold now as support.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:53:48 AM
Devry Inc. (DV) $17.80 +19.46% ... surges after adopting poison pill (raises speculation of being bought out).

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:50:49 AM
Recent energy inventory projections .... Bloomberg poll of 10 analysts are for crude oil supplies to have risen by 700,000 barrels.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  9:48:20 AM
Here comes the retest of QQQ 39.12. A break below would be bearish, a bounce above bullish and suggestive of a retest of 39.28.

  Tab Gilles   11/24/20,  9:48:15 AM
Last week I speculated on a H&S pattern on the WTIC. Tuesday's test to $50 made it filled that projection I set in last week. Murphy Oil looks strong (MUR), as I stated that it was a trade buy at the 100-ema. Attached are some oil charts. Link Link Link

Also the SMH took a hit with the INTC sell news Tuesday. But, it is still in that ascending channel since the BUY signal (bullish divergence) a few months ago. Link

Happy Thanksgiving!

  Jim Brown   11/24/20,  9:46:41 AM
Alert - Consumer Sentiment = 92.8 , (est 96.0, last 95.5, Oct 91.7)

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:44:04 AM
So far, TRIN supports the bullish case more than the bearish, but Jane has taught us not to pay too much attention to the first five to fifteen minutes of the TRIN's action.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:40:57 AM
Mykrolis (MYK) $11.90 +0.67% .... edges above Friday's high.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:40:09 AM
The OEX's 15-minute chart shows the OEX already encountering what may be significant Keltner resistance. I've been warning over the last couple of days that any pop above the 562.50-ish region soon sees resistance at 563-564, and saying that I didn't feel comfortable suggesting long positions on a breakout above that 562.50-ish region for that reason. There's another reason that this region is important: a 15-minute chart shows a potential regular, topping H&S with a descending neckline and this 563-564 level is one from which the OEX could flatten and form a right shoulder. When I see competing formations such as these, I know that bulls and bears are still trying to fight it out, and it's difficult at best to assess who will win. Certain chart characteristics suggest to me that down is more likely than too much more upside, but Jim certainly makes a well-reasoned argument for more upside in his Wraps, and historical tendencies shouldn't be ignored. For now, for me, that means much hesitancy about long positions, especially when so many other factors argue against safety in any position, including the expected low volume today.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:39:53 AM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.68 +0.82% ... new 52-weeker

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:38:40 AM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.13 +1.3% .... upside al_rt set here at "zone of resistance" from $10.11-$10.25 from the May relative low ($8.25). This was an initial bullish target where full position bulls may want to take 1/4 or 1/2 position off the table.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  9:38:19 AM
Session highs across the board, with QQQ trading 39.27 at the high, one cent shy of resistance. 39.12 and 39.18 are now support. If this doesn't reverse back down in the next 5-10 minutes, there will be a decent chance of an upside moonshot as the 30 and 60 min Keltner channels let go of the price. This is the less likely scenario given the current cycle setup.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:33:46 AM
The OEX gaps higher and then confirms the inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. This confirmation is minimal as yet. Be careful of a pop and drop this morning, but so far, the confirmation is there.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  9:31:17 AM
QQQ is sitting on the 30 min channel line at yesterday's high. A break above this level would be a 30-min cycle trending move that will target next resistance at 39.28.

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:30:19 AM
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $6.71 ... lower at $6.54 on JP Morgan downgrade from "overweight" to "neutral," telling clients to take profits after recent runup and that stock now starting to reflect the near-term rapid growth opportunity.

Goldman Sachs out with negative comments on SIRI. Goldman says that while SIRI sees Stern audiance at 12 million, firms research says the Spring 2004 CUME puts audiance closer to 5.9-6.3 million. Diaries suggest that 25% of Stern's fans account for 67% of listening and getting 1 to 2 million incremental fans to convert to satellite will be a challenge. Goldman questions valuation of SIRI and XMSR, wondering if they're really worth $7.1 billion, more than the 9 pure-play public radio broadcasters, while delivering $1.7 billion less in cash flow?

  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:25:12 AM
Ionics (ION) $29.75 Link ... surges to $43.30 (near its bullish vertical count) after GE Link said it would pay $44.00 per share in cash to acquire.

May bring sympathy bid to ITT $84.30 Link and CWCO $25.40 Link.

  Marc Eckelberry   11/24/20,  9:17:56 AM
The only hold up I see is Active X which Firefox does not support, that I know of.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  9:16:49 AM
Mark, I've upgraded from version 1.0PR to the full 1.0 version on all 3 of my machines, and I've managed to update the bulk of the extensions I was using. The transition took less than 10 minutes and the new version feels faster, smoother and even better than the old one. I haven't missed Internet Explorer in the 6 or 7 months since I stopped using altogether.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:13:45 AM
Anyone trading in today's light-volume trading environment risks being whipsawed. Formations might set up, only to see a small program trade or one of today's multiple economic releases undo a pattern that had nicely set up.

One of those patterns we're watching this morning is an inverse H&S that had partially set up yesterday. See my 22:12 post for more information.

  Marc Eckelberry   11/24/20,  9:10:34 AM
Jonathan, a little update on our Open source discussion a few weeks ago and Firefox.
Users Getting Hip To Web Browsing With FireFox * According to OneStat.com, a Netherlands based provider of Web traffic services, Open Source Internet browsers have taken a meaningful bite into Microsoft Internet Explorer (MS-IE) share. OneStat.com claims that MS-IE share dropped to 88.9% in the third week of November, which is down approximately 500 basis points from May levels. Taking much of the share are Mozilla-based browsers, which include FireFox. Interest in the FireFox browser has grown since the official launch a couple of weeks ago. Mozilla representatives indicated that FireFox has been downloaded approximately 5 million times, which is fairly impressive given the short time span in our view. * We believe that FireFox has delivered superior functionality over current versions of MS-IE, improving the browsing experience for many users, and would not be surprised if it continued to take incremental share. However, we note that Microsoft still has commanding share, and over time the company is likely to stem the share shift by incorporating new features and technologies into their browsers. Moreover, as Firefox and other open source browsers gain traction Mozilla and the Open Source community will likely have to address concern over virus attacks and on-going product support, which is likely a meaningful concern for corporate users. (BR, CS)

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:04:22 AM
Mark, I'm sorry I missed your 8:30 post, but, yes, I've been hearing those same rumors about the BOJ possibly intervening. I think that the U.S. was working against that possibility in this weekend's G20 meeting, but that didn't stop South Korea's central bank from intervening this week or from saying that it intended to do so.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  8:58:24 AM
The MBA has reported that the Mortgage Index fell 5.7% in the latest week despite a decline in interest rates during that period.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  8:44:28 AM
The Durable Orders report was not pretty, offsetting the very encouraging employment report and the upward revision to September's durable orders from .2% to .9%. From Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S.-made goods unexpectedly slipped 0.4 percent last month as demand for computers, cars and civilian aircraft slumped, a government report showed on Wednesday. The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods -- big-ticket items like cars and refrigerators meant to last at least three years -- would have been much weaker in October were it not for strong military demand. Non-defense durable goods orders dropped 1.5 percent, the sixth decline in the last seven months, and orders excluding transportation fell 0.7 percent, the department said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected durable goods orders to rise by 0.5 percent, with non-transportation orders up 0.2 percent and orders excluding defense up 0.3 percent.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  8:34:47 AM
Session low for bonds, TNX +1.4 bps at 4.19%.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  8:32:13 AM
Equities like the data, while bonds have pulled down to flat. Silver is at a session high of 7.635, gold up to 448.90. Euros and CAD are no weaker, and it looks like the dollar is declining again.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  8:31:16 AM




8:29am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 6,750 TO 332,000


8:29am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 12,000 TO 323,000




  Mark Davis   11/24/20,  8:30:00 AM
Linda have you been hearing the rumors over the last few days that the BOJ is going to intervene to prevent further USD decline by selling the yen?

  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  8:00:17 AM
Equities are higher, ES 1182, NQ 1576, YM 10536 and QQQ +.17 to 39.16. Gold is up .80 to 448.90, silver down .011 to 7.541, ten year notes up .046 to 112.375 and Nymex crude -.35 to 48.60. Euros are up to 1.3148, ditto CAD to .8465.

We await the 8:30 releases of durable orders, est. .5%, initial claims, est. 335K; at 9:45, we get UMich sentiment, est. 96, and at 10AM, the Help Wanted index, est. 37 and New home sales, est. 1.2M.

  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  6:49:32 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei posted modest gains Monday, with financials performing well early in the session, but with both the Nikkei and financials slipping later. Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, as do European markets this morning. The dollar had firmed as Asian markets opened, but began weakening again as Asian markets moved into their afternoon sessions and over the last hours. Our futures climbed into the European open, slipped lower, and climbed again, now mildly positive. As of 6:42 EST, gold was up $1.20 and crude, down $0.22. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened in negative territory Wednesday morning, but then turned positive with financials leading it higher. Neither the Nikkei nor the banks could maintain their highs of the day, but the Nikkei closed in the middle of its day's range, up 22.94 points or 0.21%, at 10,872.33.

On Monday, Mizuho Financial had raised its profit forecast for the full year, citing its progress in dealing with bad loans. The bank said that revenue would decrease, but investors have been worried by those bad loans and were reassured that this bank and others might reach their goals of reducing bad loans ahead of schedule. Sumitomo Mitsui joined in, reporting that the bad-loan ratio at one of its banking units dropped from the previous quarter's 5 percent to 4.4 percent. Two other banks, Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings, would report earnings later Wednesday. They gained early in the day, but had turned negative by the close ahead of their after-the-close earnings report.

Intel's Tuesday performance and downgrade by CSFB weighed on techs throughout Asia, with Asian bourses turning in mixed performances. The firming of the dollar throughout the morning session had helped some bourses, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.03%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.41%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.51%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.19%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.88%.

Currently, European bourses turn in mixed performances, with the dollar weakening against both the yen and the euro over the last hours. Techs generally perform better in Europe than they did in Asia, but chip manufacturer Infineon Technologies dropped after a downgrade to a sell rating by Deutsche Bank on concerns about oversupply in the DRAM industry. Lehman Brothers raised its rating of Swiss bank Credit Suisse Group to an overweight rating, citing strengths the firm expected to see in the European banking sector.

As of 6:42 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 13.00 points or 0.27%, to 4,729.40. The CAC 40 had fallen 5.59 points or 0.15%, to 3,774.50. The DAX, however, had risen 17.55 points or 0.43%, to 4,130.92.

  Jeff Bailey   11/23/20,  10:13:02 PM
Ready to rock Link

  Linda Piazza   11/23/20,  10:12:17 PM
The OEX printed a doji today, with today's advance (and yesterday's) topped by the 10-dma. This MA, currently at 562.46, has moved up to the bottom of last week's consolidation zone and above this week's. As Tuesday ended, the OEX was attempting to form a continuation-form inverse H&S with a neckline just above that MA. The declining trendline off the 11/17 high now crosses at about 562.25, also, lending its resistance to other resistance in that zone.

This week's candles have congregated in the bottom, more bearish half of Friday's tall red candle, so that gives a bearish slant overall to this week's trading, but now we have a formation and some benchmarks to watch. A sustained break above Tuesday's high will confirm the inverse H&S breakout and the move above the top of the recent consolidation zone and that descending trendline off the 11/17 high. If the OEX rolls over beneath 562.50 again, the OEX could see a test of the ascending trendline off Monday's low, with that trendline now at about 559.10. A break either direction sets a modest upside or downside target in the caliber of four points or so after the breakout. With that in mind, consider your willingness to engage in a trade on a low-volume Thanksgiving-week Wednesday with a possibly modest gain to be expected.

So far, the Nikkei is modestly higher tonight and so are our futures. Tomorrow morning, we'll look at how futures react to whatever the Nikkei and other foreign bourses do overnight.

  OI Technical Staff   11/23/20,  9:26:48 PM
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