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  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  5:20:54 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  4:58:21 PM
Monday, the OEX fell below the neckline of a rough H&S on the 60-minute chart, soon stabilized at historical and other support, and zoomed up above that neckline again. After hanging near the 562-562.50 S/R zone for a period of hour, just below the right-shoulder level, late-day selling sent the OEX below the neckline again, but not below the supporting trendline off the day's low. Not yet. We have several important economic releases at 8:30 and then at 10:00 tomorrow morning, with those releases perhaps manufacturing some volatility tomorrow morning. If that formation confirms again by falling below today's low, it sets a potential downside target near 546.30, where Keltner support also lies, giving corroboration. A climb above today's high would instead tend to negate the formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  4:10:05 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity...

Closed out Wednesday's "2-day swing trade long" in shares of Check Point Software (CHKP) at the opening tick of $23.71. ($-0.49, or -2.02%).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  4:08:32 PM
39.18 support is next on the failed bounce below 39.30 QQQ. A new short cycle downphase has stalled the young 30 min upphase, with 30 min channel support at 39.12.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:57:13 PM
Last night, the Nikkei moved up into the gap down from last Wednesday, piercing the 50-dma at 11,001.00, but not able to close above that average or above the top of the gap. It did close inside that gap, but the combined gap resistance, historical resistance near 11,000, and the 50-dma may be difficult for the Nikkei. It's difficult to tell much, with the Nikkei roughly in the middle of a range in which it's traded for several months. MACD has made a bearish cross and turned below signal, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  3:47:07 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $50.90 +8.27% .... that afternoon spike took the stock into near-term "zone of resistance" from $50.97-$53.16.

One trader asked... "we are aware of Stock split tonight, has a real fast move up the past two hours, would you be so kind and give us your latest analysis/comments on M/M today before Market close.... We are holding calls."

I'd look to exit at least 1/2 of the calls prior to the close on this pop. (assuming Dec. expiration)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:46:22 PM
So much for my supposition that the OEX might yet reach 563, but the "second right shoulder" thesis still seems to be possible.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:44:06 PM
The OEX retests the 561.25 level (561.23) that is the 38.2% retracement of the bear market decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:42:29 PM
One of these days, the SOX is going to have to break above the 200-sma or below the 200-ema. Today's range has almost spanned the narrowing distance between the two.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:37:03 PM
I'm thinking that it's possible that the OEX might yet reach 563 before it finishes its climb, because of the way a Fib bracket I fit to it matches the various consolidation levels the OEX has formed on its way up from today's low. That would still constitute a lower 15-minute high if that's as far as the OEX reaches. Stay tuned, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  3:26:31 PM
QQQ has just broken back below 39.28.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:26:20 PM
Because of those upper shadows on the 15-minute candles, I'm leaning toward a "second right shoulder" thesis rather than a rejection of the H&S (visible on the 60-minute chart). We have preliminary GDP and Chain Deflator at 8:30 tomorrow morning, as well as Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI at 10:00, so anyone who sells into that theory should be aware of the potential risks tomorrow morning. Note: Decline started as I typed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  3:24:59 PM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,180, QQQ $39.31

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  3:23:28 PM
If QQQ can hold above 39.30 for another 10 minutes or so, the new 30 min cycle upphase should strengthen enough to confirm, targeting the 39.50 resistance level on the way to the session highs. The 3-week uptrend line on the 30 min chart held this morning, and the 30 min cycle downphase bottomed there at a higher price and oscillator low. This is not bearish action, and the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls above 39.18. Below 39.00-39.05, the bears will have the price below the ascending support line.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:21:05 PM
The OEX isn't retreating, but each seven-minute (and fifteen-minute) candle leaves an upper shadow behind, not usually a sign of strength.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  3:20:17 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $51.11 +8.8% ... missed a big move up from $48.50 on volume.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:15:19 PM
If the OEX ends the day where it is now, it will have created a doji, but a doji that sprang up from support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  3:12:30 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

Ramp up in NH at both NYSE and NASDAQ from 02:00 getting some follow through.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  3:04:28 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  3:03:07 PM
Is this a second right shoulder for the 60-minute H&S on the OEX or something more bullish? I'm not sure yet, but I don't trust this climb. I do see bullish divergence on the 60-minute chart as today's low was hit as compared to the last swing low from 11/22, but that can still be erased. Those who believe it's a second right shoulder have been gifted with another bearish entry, but I see little evidence as yet other than those upper candle spikes on the 15-minute (and other intraday intervals') chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  3:00:29 PM
QQQ has just failed at 39.40 resistance and should now find support at 39.28-.30. The strongest volume spike of the afternoon was on the sell side just now for QQQ, but support should be strong to 39.18. A bounce above 39.28 would be very bullish and suggest a retest of 39.40 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  2:54:48 PM
I'm frankly not sure what to make of this climb. The OEX just left a big upper shadow on the seven-minute candle after having produced a breakaway gap at the beginning of that seven-minute candle. Now it's climbing again, strongly, but will it get hit again by selling just under 563?

Bears had time to make their profit-protecting plans, especially as we knew that 557.75-558-ish zone had such bounce potential (See my 13:15, 11:37 and 11:33 posts.), but is this a potential new entry level? It's retraced more than 50% of the day's decline, but seven-minute candles are forming beneath the 61.8% retracement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  2:39:51 PM
The OEX now shows a breakaway gap as it heads up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  2:38:50 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,181.97, QQQ $39.39

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  2:36:00 PM
Crude oil closed higher by .30 at 49.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  2:34:40 PM
The OEX tested the three-minute chart's H&S neckline and rejected it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  2:29:04 PM
Is the OEX attempting again to broaden into a bear flag? Perhaps. The three-minute chart shows a potential miniature H&S, neckline at about 559.60, downside target at about 558.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  2:21:56 PM
QQQ continues to find support at the 39.18 line, but the short cycles are no longer oversold and support should be weaker. A break of either 39.18 or 39.30 should be directional. Meanwhile, there's no reprieve for treasuries, with TNX up 9.2 bps at 4.332%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  2:21:10 PM
02:00 internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  2:09:53 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  2:08:17 PM
While the OEX has been testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's, it's also been testing the hand-drawn ascending trendline off the 11/22 low. It's beginning to pull back from both, but the shape of that climb over the last hour should be making all bears a bit nervous and wary. Watch carefully, as that could have been just a move that quickly ran out of steam, but its shape was certainly indicative of buying rather than distribution.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  1:59:40 PM
The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are now at 560.92 and 561.14, respectively. Presumably, since the fall beneath these averages precipitated the strong decline this morning, they should now serve as resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  1:57:29 PM
QQQ is coming in for the test of 38.28 now, with the 30 min cycle channel turning up, resistance up to 39.30. A break above this level targets confluence at 39.40 on the way to a test of 60 min channel resistance at 39.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  1:41:02 PM
The GHA is drawing back from its high of the day, leaving a long shadow above its daily candle. This isn't a good sign, but the day has lots of time left and the GHA could zoom back up toward the day's high. What tech bulls do not want to see happen is for the GHA to end the day with a red-bodied candle, as that would perhaps constitute a key reversal day for this index that has been taking a leadership role. I say "perhaps" because there are volume considerations to a key reversal day, too, and QCharts may not be correctly tabulating volume for this index. I can't check whether those volume considerations were met.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  1:38:08 PM
I believe that this story from Asia explains the weakness in WMT as well- the selling in WMT seems overdone for the same-store sales story released over the weekend.

 
 
  Marc Eckelberry   11/29/20,  1:34:42 PM
The SOX is the Achilles heel of this market, Linda and I suspect Intel is what everyone is waiting for.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  1:30:50 PM
I believe that this could be what's driving today's washout in treasury bonds:

VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) - Rising power China moved Monday to expand its influence in a region long dominated by the United States, signing an accord with Southeast Asian nations aimed at creating the world's largest free trade area by 2010 - a sprawling market of nearly 2 billion people.

China's concerns about securing vital sea lanes and feeding its booming economy's ravenous appetite for oil and raw materials were seen as key motivations for the trade pact with the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations at the group's annual summit in Laos.

Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  1:25:46 PM
The SOX bounced down from its test of its 200-sma today, but remains so far above its 200-ema at 426.32. This ema has proven important in the SOX's trading pattern over the last month, and so should be watched.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  1:24:40 PM
The BIX continues to look as if it's rounding over into a right shoulder for a H&S on its daily chart, although it bounced from just above 370 and the potential neckline for that H&S.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  1:21:41 PM
The TRAN approaches a 50% retracement of the day's decline, with that retracement at about 3643.50 and with the TRAN at 3640.39 as I type. I'm watching to see how the TRAN behaves at that 50% retracement, although remaining aware that the TRAN often overruns targets.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  1:21:39 PM
Volume has perked up only slightly on this rise, still running lower than that seen on the drop that preceded it. Below 39.28, this looks like a bearish doji day to me, but bears need to see 39.08 and 38.97 broken to confirm it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  1:18:59 PM
This rise, so far, isn't look bear-flag-like, but remember that we're approaching the typical stop-running time of day. Bears should be watchful, though, since the OEX did not firm up into a more flag-like rise, as I had thought it might, but instead prints candles that look like the kind of candles seen after a breakout.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  1:15:01 PM
Stratasys (SSYS) $32.45 +1.31% .... just off session high of $32.51.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  1:15:01 PM
I'm finally back on broadband, not feeling as if I'm running in slow motion any longer. Dial-up is great to have as a backup, but it's not a good substitute when you're running lots of charts.

The OEX is still challenging that neckline for that H&S from the underside, but it's also sneaking past some of that converging Keltner resistance as it does so. It looks as if it might be trying to firm up that potential bear flag into a more "flag-like" appearance, perhaps prior to climbing higher and retracing at least some of today's steep decline. Those in bearish positions had ample warning of the importance of this 557.75-558 region and so have had time to think out their profit-protecting plans, whether that's to let the OEX stop you out if it rises above your account-appropriate stop or to have (already) taken partial or whole profits, or some other method. A 19.1% retracement of the day's decline lies just ahead, just above 559, with a 38.2% retracement at about 560.35. Until and unless the OEX gets above that 561.25 zone, however, it hasn't even retraced more than 50% of the decline, and so remains in bearish mode.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  1:14:02 PM
Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $64.97 +0.16% ... edge back into green.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  1:10:59 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  1:04:39 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  12:59:11 PM
The Fed has announced a 1.24B bill pass, which brings the day's total to a net add of 7.24B. Bonds remain very weak, however, with TNX up 8.6 bps in a 2.03% move for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  12:54:06 PM
Genentech (DNA) $49.37 +1.33% ... jumped as high as $50.34 after being released for trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  12:54:01 PM
The OEX turns down slightly from the test of the violated neckline of the H&S on its 60-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  12:46:03 PM
The OEX still has not been able to break above the violated H&S neckline, which is good for the bearish side of the argument. However, it also has not ventured far from that neckline, which always makes me a bit nervous. I think it's natural that the bulls and bears had a lot to fight out at this level and that it might take some time, but this neckline break should have been a scary event that caused a rush for the exits, and it didn't. Just have to wait out this test.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  12:43:18 PM
The current bounce remains on light volume and is generally weak. I agree with Keene's comment to the effect that this bounce should be corrective. Provided that QQQ holds below either 39.18 or 39.28, the next pullback should provide an aggressive retest of today's 38.97 low. If the bulls can regain 39.28 for 10 minutes, the 30 min channel will shift back up and suggest higher targets from there.

 
 
  James Brown   11/29/20,  12:43:04 PM
There has been some talk that retailers, at least Wal-Mart, may not have done so great this past weekend. Yet Visa's American division said on Black Friday its customers spent more than $4.1 billion, which is a 15% increase over last year.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/29/20,  12:40:34 PM
Weakness though is starting to appear in the markets today with oil flirting with $50 bbl. The Nasdaq has several charts indicating caution. The $NASI is at the same level it was earlier this year when the selling started. The $BPNDX is giving a warning signal also. As is the $VXN. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/29/20,  12:38:34 PM
We are seeing some profit taking in SLB too.

 
 
  James Brown   11/29/20,  12:37:21 PM
OI call play DHR is seeing its momentum wane. Short-term traders may want to do some profit taking if they haven't already.

 
 
  James Brown   11/29/20,  12:37:09 PM
Short-term traders may want to do some profit taking in OI call play FDX. The stock is painting a bearish engulfing pattern with today's candlestick.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  12:32:47 PM
The OEX inches slowly toward that violated H&S neckline and the slowly converging Keltner resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  12:29:57 PM
Genentech (DNA) Genentech and Roche announcing that randomized Phase III study of Avastin plus FOLFOX4 chemotherapy regime, compared to FOLFOX4 alone, achieved primary endpoint of improving overall survival in patients with second-line metastatic colorectal cancer.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  12:26:14 PM
Genentech (DNA) $48.75 +0.06% Link .... halted with news pending.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  12:23:06 PM
January Crude Oil futures (cl05f) $49.40 -0.12% (30-min delayed) ... updated 30-minute interval chart with QCharts' weekly pivots at this Link

Has been choppy trade this morning, but buyers lurking at WEEKLY Pivot early.

Updated 25-cent box chart of $WTIC at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  12:21:36 PM
The OEX continues rising toward a test of the violated neckline of its H&S, with Keltner resistance now converging near that neckline, now at about 558.85.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  12:16:37 PM
SHANGHAI (AP) - Regulators may let China's four biggest state banks become market makers in U.S. dollar trading, paving the way for less currency intervention by the central bank, a state-run newspaper reported Monday.

Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  12:15:15 PM
Like Marc on the Futures side, I've lost my broadband connection, although I'm on Comcast and not SBC, and although I believe Marc and I are located in different parts of the country. I'm on dial-up now and booting up as many of my applications as the lowly dial-up will handle. Be back soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  12:13:38 PM
Stepping away for 15 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  12:08:59 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  12:02:23 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:58:52 AM
The OEX is now rising toward a retest of the H&S neckline. Keltner resistance courses down toward that neckline, with Keltner lines from 559-559.21, but they may not be firmed up enough to retard the OEX yet. We'll have to watch the test to see. Next Keltner resistance is just above 560.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   11/29/20,  11:56:20 AM
Here's a nice chart of a tech breaking out. PWER: Link

GHA continues to trend higher, mainly due to AAPL and SUNW. Link

A list of the GHA's component stocks: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  11:51:07 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY interval chart at this Link

Pretty big sell program hit the SPX at about 1,180, just above WEEKLY Pivot.

Intra-day 5-minute interval chart at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/29/20,  11:49:46 AM
Dateline CNN - President Bush nominates Kellogg CEO Carlos Gutierrez to be secretary of Commerce, administration officials say.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:48:54 AM
So far, the OEX consolidates just under the violated neckline for the H&S on the top of its 60-minute chart. Keltner resistance is now moving down toward that neckline, but hasn't firmed up yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  11:48:50 AM
QQQ continues to bounce along at 39.00 after hitting a low of 38.97. The short cycle oscillators are only now approaching oversold as the 30 minute channel continues lower. Any bounces should remain weak below 39.18 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:37:00 AM
The OEX is now breaking through (broke through as I typed) the neckline for the H&S on the 60-minute chart. If you're already in a bearish play from the rollover at the top of the bear flag this morning, you're in good shape. If you're thinking about entering or have just entered on the break through the neckline, be prepared for a possible bounce from 557.75 back up to test the neckline. Can't guarantee that it will happen, but the OEX is now at mid-channel support on the 60-minute chart, so that was a possible bounce point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:33:18 AM
Today is the day of the skewed Keltner channels. First it was Friday's half day of trading that was responsible and now it's the quick drop. Keltner lines are spread out thinly overhead, so that it's difficult to tell which resistance level might be the strongest. Nearby resistance lies at 559.40-559.60 and then again from 560.55-561, with the higher also near the 38.2% retracement of the day's decline. If the OEX just falls through the neckline of its H&S on the 60-minute chart instead of bouncing, we might see the first bounce attempt at 558.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:26:05 AM
Note that the potential H&S on the 60-minute chart is still possible. The neckline for that H&S is a little above that 558 historical and Keltner support, so it would be a little problematic to jump on a bearish play on a break of the neckline, just ahead of that support. If I've drawn the neckline correctly, it's actually at about 588.75, the low of the day, so that it's possible that a bounce might begin from that neckline level before the OEX is allowed to test 558.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:22:27 AM
OEX 558 might be significant support for the OEX. It's both historical support and the midlevel support on the 60-minute Keltner channels. Bears should be prepared for a potential bounce from that level, if one should occur. Continue to snap Fib brackets on the day's decline, deciding whether you can weather a potential reversal to a 19.1% or 38.2% retracement. So far, no retracement of the day has gone that high, though. Follow the OEX lower with your stops.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  11:20:22 AM
Support should now be resistance at 39.18 and 39.28.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:17:15 AM
Whether you use QCharts automatically drawn regression channel or a hand-drawn ascending trendline, the OEX has broken below the bear flag's support. It's moved easily down through 560.80, too, potential support, as well as through 560. Those who entered bearish positions on a rollover below the top of the potential bear flag have liked what they've seen. I wish the chart situation had been different early this morning so that I could have been more certain of what I was seeing and could have made a firmer recommendation.

There's been a Keltner channel breakdown now, so bears should follow the OEX lower with their stops, following the trend lower.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  11:16:52 AM
Not even a pause at 39.18. 39.12 and 39.01 are next support, with 39.12 cracking as I type. Below that, there's light support at 38.95 and then stronger support at 38.88.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  11:13:00 AM
QQQ has broken 39.28 and is at a session low of 39.23, heading for next support at 39.18.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  11:12:29 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:11:56 AM
The OEX is about to test the bear flag's support . . . dropping below it as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  11:10:32 AM
QQQ is testing 39.28 support here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:09:26 AM
OEX bears, remember the 561.23 level that's the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline. That could be potential support.

 
 
  Mark Davis   11/29/20,  11:06:24 AM
Jeff every time you mention Stratasys it reminds me of Stratacom... remember that one? What a monster! Bought out by CSCO if I remember correctly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  11:05:40 AM
30 min channel support for QQQ is down to 39.28. The 30 min cycle upphase has stalled and is downticking on the lack of a more significant bounce off the 39.35 low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  11:04:03 AM
A lower low on the OEX, confirming the bear flag breakdown.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  11:03:37 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  11:00:14 AM
3D Systems (TDSC) $15.85 -5.26% .... headed the other way and testing its rising 21-day SMA.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  10:59:47 AM
Gold continues higher, +3.90 at 453.20 as the Dow futs make a new low. However, the miners are underperforming, HUI +.56% to 244.76 and XAU +.63% to 110.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  10:59:27 AM
Statasys (SSYS) $32.50 +1.46% .... session highs for this maker of rapid prototype equipment.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  10:54:25 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $38.78 +0.18% .... Late Friday, FRX said it received FDA approval for its Combunox pain medication. FRX said the drug should be available early next year. The drug was approved for short-term management of acute, moderate-to-severe pain of the type that many patients experience after surgery or injury.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:52:58 AM
The OEX has not yet made a lower day's low to confirm a breakdown out of the small bear flag on the five-minute chart, but it's possibly preparing a retest of that low as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  10:46:30 AM
QQQ has failed at a lower high on the bounce from 39.38, and needs to clear 39.51 to get another crack at the session high. If it fails to do so, then we should see another attempt on the 39.35-.38 low. 30 min channel support is currently at 39.30, and a move below 39.35 for 5-10 minutes should be enough to get that channel support to start descending. Next confluence support is at 39.28 and 39.18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:43:32 AM
On a five-minute chart, the OEX's current climb looks like a bear-flag climb. If that's what it is, then it probably should not retrace more than 50% of the decline off the day's high, with that 50% mark at 563.36. A 38.2% retracement is at 563.07, with that level just above the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Bears would probably prefer that it turn down at those averages instead. (Note: The OEX began falling out of that potential bear flag as I typed, but needs to make a new low of the day to confirm that event.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  10:40:55 AM
Session high for euro and gold futures here at 1.3288 and 452.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:36:07 AM
Although the right shoulder elongates a bit, the BIX presents the possibility of a H&S on its daily chart. The RSI has already long ago confirmed a H&S (as the BIX was rounding down to form the head) and has risen to retest the neckline of its H&S, but these RSI and CCI formations haven't been as reliable lately as they usually are. A move much above 375 would probably negate the potential H&S while a move below 369.74 would confirm it. What's troublesome is that there's significant historical support in the 367 area. I'm watching this as the BIX's behavior can be important to the OEX, too, as Jeff has taught us.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:29:49 AM
The GHA continues to chug higher, at 309.34 as I type, off its day's high, but only slightly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:25:00 AM
The OEX has fallen beneath its five-minute 100/130-ema's at 562.87 and 562.69, respectively. It's consolidating just beneath them (Bearish "b" distribution pattern? Something more bullish?). Anyone in bearish positions should be aware of the potential support to be found near 562.25 (historical, 15-minute 100/130-ema's), 561.25 (historical, Fib), and then again at about 560.50, the site of the ascending trendline off the 11/22 low. QCharts actually tags that 561.25 level as the bottom of the potential bear flag. If TRIN were more bearish, I'd feel more confident of the downside, but in any case we have to be aware that the OEX has not yet broken through the support of the ascending regression channel, whether we're using QCharts' 561.25 figure or the hand-drawn 560.50-ish location for the ascending trendline off the 11/22 low. Those who entered bearish positions on a rollover beneath the bear flag's resistance should have a profit-protecting plan in place for a test of that flag's support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  10:20:36 AM
Session high for Nymex crude here at 49.925.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:17:20 AM
The SOX is testing its 200-sma for the first time in a week. It's pulled back slightly beneath that average, but hasn't dropped beneath the 200-ema. It's still between the two, with the 200-sma at 439.11, the 200-ema at 426.37 and the SOX at 435.23.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  10:14:09 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  10:14:03 AM
The Fed has announced a 3B 2-day repo and a 3B overnight repo with no expiries today, for a net add of 6B for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:09:14 AM
What we do know for sure is that the OEX created a double-top formation on its five-minute chart and it dropped minimally below the confirmation level at 562.63. It's clinging to that confirmation level, however, due to Keltner and historical support at 562.50. It's falling beneath that support, too, as I type. This confirmation suggests a 2-point downside move, although I'm not certain the volatility has been shaken out yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  10:08:39 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:05:45 AM
The TRAN's breakout above its rising regression channel was a false breakout. The TRAN has dropped down through that channel again and is now testing the bottom of that channel. This isn't looking good for bulls, despite what the TRIN says, but, like Jane on the Futures side, I don't like the divergences I'm seeing in the internals. They make me distrustful of the action.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  10:03:35 AM
QQQ did indeed stall at 39.62, consolidated, but has now dropped down to the 39.35 support mentioned in my 9:34 comment, with a session low so far at 39.38. Below 39.35, the picture will change, but this move still qualifies as a bullish consolidation above that level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  10:02:15 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  10:01:53 AM
Rollover from resistance? It's possible for the OEX's move within $0.20 of the top of the possible bear flag to have constituted a sound test of that resistance, but TRIN isn't giving us a good feeling about short positions, although it's rising off the day's low. Unfortunately, at the time that the OEX was testing the top of that potential bear flag, my charts weren't giving me enough information to tell anything about what they predicted would happen next. Still aren't.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  9:58:21 AM
The advdec line is dropping off its day's high, but the TRIN isn't moving much.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  9:57:30 AM
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $6.70 +3.07% ... morning high of $6.95 matched that found on Tuesday.

Priot to today's open, FBR downgraded SIRI to "market perform" from "outperform" following SIRI's 71% rise since firm's Oct. 19 coverage initiation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  9:50:52 AM
VIX.X 13.05 +2.03% .... DAILY Pivot Levels as follows .... 12.39, 12.52, Piv= 12.71, 12.84, 13.04.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  9:49:02 AM
Session high for silver here, with Dec. futures breaking out above 7.65 for the first time in weeks, currently up 1.94% to 7.76.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  9:48:26 AM
The TRAN has definitely broken above its slightly rising regression channel. This had never looked like a good bear flag, however, since it hadn't formed after a steep decline, but rather after a rise.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  9:47:13 AM
If there were no blanks in my intraday charts due to the half-day of trading Friday, the OEX would hit the top of the ascending regression channel (possible bear flag?) at about 464.80. Because of the blank spaces, that trendline has risen to just over 465, but I think we should be looking at potential breakout or rollovers nearer 464.80. The high today so far has been 464.60. Close enough to have constituted a test of that level? Perhaps, but my intraday charts are so skewed by the blanks that it's difficult to tell how things are setting up. I'm seeing the currency market be volatile and reading from other writers of volatility in the bond markets, too, so we should be particularly careful this morning. I'm flying blind until the charts sort themselves out. Unfortunately, I can't give any sound advice.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  9:42:03 AM
Session high for Nymex crude at 49.625.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  9:41:42 AM
QQQ is now exceeding rising 30 min channel resistance at 39.60, and unless the price at least stalls right here, we'll be looking at the beginning of yet another potentially explosive trending move upward.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  9:36:23 AM
Within its rising regression channel (possible bear flag?), the OEX still presents the possibility of forming a H&S, but the OEX needs to begin rounding down from the current level if it's not going to negate that formation.

Because of the missing spaces in my charts due to Friday's half-day of trading, my Keltner charts will be useless for a while.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  9:34:30 AM
QQQ has 30 min channel resistance at 39.56. The oversold 30 min cycle oscillators have turned up, and unless QQQ gets back below 39.35 for at least 5-10 minutes, the intraday bias should remain to the upside. 1st support is at 39.47.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  9:32:14 AM
The OEX opens near Friday's close and climbs. I sure wish QCharts would close up those empty spaces when there's a half-day of trading. Sure makes drawing trendlines difficult. We got neither a test of support nor (yet) a test of resistance from the OEX's rising regression channel, so I don't see a safe entry for either bulls or bears here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  9:30:57 AM
2-day bullish trade stop alert ... for Checkpoint Software (CHKP) $23.71.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  9:29:22 AM
Last week's trade blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  9:20:11 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasury prices fell sharply on Monday as a sudden wave of speculative selling swamped major chart levels, triggering added technical sales. ...

I wonder how they know it's speculative?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  8:55:06 AM
Session low for bonds here, TNX up 7.2 bps or 1.7%. 4.26% resistance has been broken with authority and should now act as support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  8:47:04 AM
Check Point Software (CKHP) $24.06 .... lower at $23.81 in pre-market trade after Raymond James downgrades to "market perform" from "outperform."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  8:42:04 AM
Futures are up this morning, although off their overnight highs. If markets open higher, it doesn't look as if we'll get that OEX bounce from support (from the potential bear flag) and will have to watch for a potential breakout above the flag or rollover from the flag's resistance, or even breakdown below the flag. See my 22:08 post for more explanation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/20,  7:50:46 AM
Equities are higher, with ES trading 1187.25, NQ 1592, YM 10565 and QQQ +.33 at 39.54. Gold is up 1.30 at 450.60, silver +.04 at 7.651, ten year notes +.015 at 112.0625 and crude oil -.05 at 49.40.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/29/20,  7:14:16 AM
Good morning. As the dollar steadied against other currencies, most bourses across the globe climbed. Our futures zoomed higher but are off their overnight highs. As of 6:48 EST, gold was up $1.40 and crude, up $0.01 to $49.45. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With the dollar firming overnight, the Nikkei opened Monday in positive territory and stayed there all day, closing higher by 144.14 points or 1.33%, at 10,977.89. The Nikkei had pierced 11,000 intraday but couldn't close above that level.

October's retail sales fell 0.01%, with sales of clothing and autos decreasing by 2.8 and 8%, respectively. The result was better than expected, with analysts predicting a 0.04% decline. Typhoons and rainy weather produced lower sales at department stores and supermarkets, the figures showed. Supermarket operator Daiei proved to be a strong gainer Monday, also benefiting from news that electronics manufacturer Kyocera and retailer Aeon will sponsor the troubled company. Financials gained. Steelmakers continued gains made last week after car manufacturers detailed the steps they would take to combat a shortage in sheet metal. Nissan gained in early trading, with the company beginning today its scheduled several-day shutdowns over the next two weeks because of steel shortages. Other car manufacturers gained, too.

Most other Asian markets posted gains, too. The Taiwan Weighted climbed 0.78%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.85%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.51%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.24%. China's Shanghai Composite was one of the few Asian bourses posting losses, declining 1.42%.

Currently, most European bourses post gains, too, with the dollar's steadying helping those markets, too, despite ECB President Trichet labeling of the recent currency moves as "unwelcome," according to a Marketwatch.com article. Stocks in the news included the LG Electronics/Philips joint venture, LG Philips LCD, with that company guiding analysts to expect the Q4 decline in LCD prices to be near the high end of the previously expected 10-15% decline in prices. Another stock in focus was Cap Gemini, receiving an upgrade from Goldman Sachs.

More maneuvering takes place as the French government seeks to build a defense contractor that can compete more efficiently with Boeing. The French government reportedly sought to undo the dual French and German CEO structure of European defense group EADS and put a Frenchman in sole control, a move that DaimlerChrysler, part owner of EADS, blocked.

As of 6:48 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 42.10 points or 0.89%, to trade at 4,783.60. The CAC 40 had climbed 41.04 points or 1.09%, to 3,823.24. The DAX had climbed 64.44 points or 1.55%, to 4,218.71.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/28/20,  10:49:34 PM
WMT - Wal-Mart said same store sales for Thanksgiving week only rose +0.7% compared to the +2% to +4% they had projected. Analysts said it could have been due to a lack of heavy discounting at Wal-Mart compared to the strong advertised specials at other retail stores like Target and Sears. Monday could be a little rough for the WMT stock price given its recent bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  10:08:02 PM
In Friday's light trading, the OEX produced a doji at the top of a small climb. The shape of that climb fits the appearance of a bear flag on the daily chart. That doji was formed near the 50% retracement of the decline off the 11/17 high. The 50% level was pierced, but the OEX didn't close above it.

We'll be watching for a potential breakdown out of that bear flag. Unfortunately, such a bear-flag breakdown would not occur until the OEX moves below about 560.40 (or 561.14 if you believe QChart's automatically drawn ascending regression channel). For those who want to accept even more risk, a break blow Friday's close represents a break below a shorter-term rising trendline off Tuesday's last five-minute low. Those who chose to enter a bearish play due to a break of that short-term trendline should expect a bounce--perhaps just a bounce back to test resistance, but perhaps more--from the lower rising trendline that defines the bear flag. At the current time, a breakout above about 565.10 would represent an upside break out of the potential bear flag, a possibility that should be considered.

Although in a strongly trending market, breakout plays can be hugely profitable, they're death to an account in a sideways market. Safer entries are on bounces from support or rollovers from resistance, depending on whether one is looking for a bullish or bearish play. Tomorrow morning, we'll look for signs that the OEX is likely to either bounce from the lower support of that rising regression channel or roll over from tests of the top of the channel. Given that the channel looks like a bear flag and that the OEX hasn't been able to maintain values above a 50% retracement of the decline, a slight nod must be given to the possibility of a downside break, but Monday we begins to see how much of last week's trading was true to the underlying sentiment of the markets. As I type, futures are headed higher, so if that moves holds into the open tomorrow, we may see a test of the top of the channel before the bottom, but it's many hours until tomorrow morning and the open, and most anything can happen before then.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  10:07:50 PM
Pivot Matrix for Monday at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/28/20,  10:07:41 PM
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