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  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:49:51 PM
QQQ $39.12 -0.2% ... $39.19 in extended session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:49:14 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.49 -1.63% .... $32.72 in extended session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:47:48 PM
AMAT $16.64 -1.77% ... $16.81 in extended session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:47:17 PM
KLAC $45.06 -1.01% ... $45.49 in extended session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:46:34 PM
NVLS $26.94 -3.05% .... $27.55 in extended session.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  4:37:26 PM
Alert - NVLS mid quarter update - overall business climate has not changed. Seeing a slight slowing in the U.S. Guiding demand lower for the current quarter but not significantly. Bookings and shipments at the high end of their previous range. Earnings at 24-26 cents for Q4. Prior estimates were 21 cents.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:26:42 PM
November's MM Trade Blotter at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:19:28 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ...

Day trade long Taser Intl. (TASR) at $25.50, stopped for loss at $25.15. ($-0.35, or -1.37%.

Swing trade long 1/2 bullish position in Keane (KEA) $15.81, but stopped just prior to the close at $15.60. ($-0.21 or -1.33%). I'm just now noting that JP Morgan initiated coverage of KEA with an "underweight" rating today. Had I seen that at time of profile, I may well have avoided this profile today. Still, gains in CBR had me thinking some bullishness for IT management consultants.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  4:16:33 PM
CI raising guidance

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  4:14:58 PM
NVLS mid quarter update due out in just a couple minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:08:13 PM
Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.29 , SPY $117.82, QQQ $39.12

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  4:02:44 PM
The OEX couldn't have closed any closer to its breakdown point, could it? Well, actually to be exact, it could have closed $0.13 closer, because it's $0.13 above that breakdown.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  4:00:54 PM
Sell Program Premium .... DIA $104.19, SPY $117.64, QQQ $39.10

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:58:58 PM
The GHA is only minimally positive as the close nears, with today's trade producing a doji at the top of this index's steep, steep climb. The GHA has produced other doji at the top of the until-then climb, and they've signaled only a sideways consolidation or a small pullback, so we have probably have to see the GHA break back below 300 again on a closing basis before we start believing in a pullback for this index, and even then it has support near 287 from a long-term ascending trendline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  3:58:17 PM
Swing trade 1/2 bullish position stop alert ... for Keane (KEA) $15.60 -1.76%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:54:06 PM
The TRAN looks as if it's going to close near the high of the day, but that close will still produce a doji or near doji that's marching out in a straight line along with the others produced over the last few trading days. It will also produce an inside day, with today's range totally encased in yesterday's. Prelude to another breakout or breakdown? We'll have to wait and let prices tell us.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:46:52 PM
It's possible that OEX traders will be faced with the exact problem I detailed in my 15:22 post--a drop below yesterday's low in the last few minutes of trading. Decide now what you'll do if that happens--pass up the trade that might have looked attractive if it had occurred at 9:30 this morning or hop on it. There's no one right or wrong answer to this. Depends on your account size, the size of the anticipated position, your tolerance for risk, and a host of other factors. Tomorrow sees Personal Income and Personal Spending, both released at 8:30, the usual mid-morning release of crude inventories, and October's Construction Spending and November's ISM Index, both released at 10:00, so there's some potential for volatility tomorrow morning, too.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:45:00 PM
One drug stock not seeing a bounce today is Eli Lilly (LLY). Shares are down another 1.63% in a long line of lower highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:41:46 PM
Did you ever skip stones along a lake's surface? That's what the OEX behaves like when compared to the five-minute 100/130-ema's, bouncing back from brief contacts with those averages, except it's doing it from the underside. It never gets far away from those averages, just as a perfectly skipped stone usually stays close to the water's surface, too. Someone is good at this skipping thing lately.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  3:39:57 PM
Option volatility is directly related to the movement in the stock price. Once that movement slows and begains a sideways move options can literally drop by half or more if it was a high volatility stock like RIMM or TASR. The only thing that will reinflate them is a return of strong intraday moves in the stock price. Many traders get burned by this. They are attracted to a highly volatile stock by some news event and they jump in at the height of volatility due to the news. As volatility bleeds once the news fades and the stock price becomes more dormant then they are trapped in the options with premium decaying by the minute.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  3:38:52 PM
Per Jane in the Futures Monitor:

Remember the Qs are switching to the AMEX tomorrow and the symbol switches to QQQQ. Trading will stop at 4:00 EST rather than 4:15.

Thanks for the reminder, Jane.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:35:49 PM
Reader Question: A reader writes asking about a stock whose puts are diving in value although the stock isn't moving much. Usually when that happens, a stock's options are leaking value due to decreasing volatility. For example, here's a chart comparing GOOG's historical volatility to the current implied volatility. Notice how the IV is diving? Link I don't pretend to know everything about the computations for options prices (perhaps Jim will chime in here?) but it's clear that a move back toward the historical volatility, which should eventually happen, will plump up those options again, too. That's going to require a sharp move down in prices, probably. Feel free to correct me, Jim or anyone else, especially since GOOG doesn't have much "history" upon which to establish a historical volatility. I haven't watched this on recent IPO's.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  3:34:17 PM
At this point, with QQQ down all of 1 cent net for the day, I'd suggest waiting for a break of either 39.00 or 39.40 and simply ignoring this noise in between. The 30 min cycle downphase was as unproductive as the upphase that preceded it.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:30:15 PM
Three trading days ago PDCO broke out through the top of its eight-month trading range. Shares have continued to inch higher despite the market weakness.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:27:48 PM
Breakdown A1ert! - Software provider Intuit (INTU) has been slowly rolling over for weeks and has now broken down through support at the $42.00 mark and its 100-dma and 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:26:52 PM
Marvell Technology (MRVL) continues to out perform its peers in the semiconductor sector. The SOX is slipping lower but MRVL is hitting new highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:22:40 PM
The OEX's current 60-minute candle spans the distance between the two versions of the neckline on the H&S visible on the 60-minute chart.

Here's what I'm afraid will happen--the OEX will break through the lower version in the last few minutes of trading. I don't know about you, but I distrust actions that happen in the last few minutes of trading, at least when trading options that can't be traded in after-hours. Those planning on hopping on a bearish trade on a break of the neckline (confirmed by a move below yesterday's low) have a difficult decision to make if that move happens in the last few minutes of trading. Even if it happens now, you'll want to see some distance between your entry and the OEX's close if you're going to consider holding overnight. You'll want to see a strong move down to show that the break did have relevance. So, even if the move does occur relatively soon (if it ever does), you'll need to consider now, before the break happens, what you'll do if there's little movement after such a break. Will you exit and watch tomorrow morning? Perhaps for those waiting for such a break, the best thing to happen would be for the OEX to hold where it is today and for us to get a fresh start tomorrow morning, and for there to be more corroboration from internals and the other indices.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:21:26 PM
The rally in Broadcom (BRCM) continues. Shares are bouncing from the $30.00 level and just pushed through its exponential 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:19:58 PM
Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) (-1.8%) may not be a weak as Intel is today but shares continue to look vulnerable. A drop under the $40.00 mark might be a new bearish entry point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  3:16:21 PM
Good one, Linda! LOL

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:15:27 PM
I listen to opera during the trading day, and in the Mahler Lieder I'm listening to now, Placido Domingo's voice has a swishing sound (because the lied or song is in German?) that sounds just like the signal when a trade is triggered on the trading platform that I'm demo-ing. I keep thinking that my stops have been hit. It's the most exciting action I've seen all day, and that's sad.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:14:14 PM
Semiconductor stock Xilinx (XLNX) appears to be losing its two-week fight with the simple 200-dma overhead but bears may want to watch shares break down through its current rising channel before shorting it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  3:12:31 PM
I've been holding my toungue for hours... .... but Jupitermedia (JUPM) $16.95 +7% has been steadily climbing since 11:00.

No news items that I can find.

WEEKLY R1 $16.88 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  3:10:50 PM
Volume is only slightly higher here, and bulls will want to see 39.30 at least, and preferably 39.40 broken to the upside before trusting that this break is going to prove directional.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  3:09:50 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:09:21 PM
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up another 0.9% as it breaks out over the $60.00 mark to climb toward new two-year highs. The company announced a couple of new contract wins today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  3:08:47 PM
The BIX appears to be confirming its inverse H&S-ish formation on its five-minute chart, all the while that the SOX is bouncing only tepidly, still near its low of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  3:07:16 PM
QQQ is trying to regain 39.20 here, but again on uncertain volume.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  3:06:36 PM
Best Buy Co (BBY) is down another 2.68% following yesterday's failed rally at $60.00. BBY was on the watch list last night as a bearish candidate. The next level of support should be the $55 mark but the P&F chart has now extended its target from $53 to $51.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  3:03:35 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  2:57:38 PM
The SOX continues lower, at 424.20 as I type. Another indicator index I watch, the TRAN, is still above 3650, however. The BIX is above 370, and may be forming a continuation-form inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. Still mixed signals.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  2:56:33 PM
Talk about an orderly decline: QQQ is down 10 cents at 39.10, following a steady pattern of lower highs since the cash open. No urgency- just a steady drift lower through the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  2:54:46 PM
The OEX is making its closest approach to the lowest of the two neckline versions for the H&S on its 60-minute chart. TRIN still isn't suggesting anything but more coiling around.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  2:44:20 PM
January Crude Oil (cl05f) $48.75 -2.02% .... looked to be following heating oil.

Hmmmm... this morning's high was 15 cents above last Tuesday's high.

Somewhat similar to 10/25 ($55.20 high) and 10/27 ($55.30 high) trade comparison. Heating oil may well be the key still.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  2:44:10 PM
It's not only the indices that coil: so do the VXO, TRIN, and advdec line. I mentioned the possibility that the OEX would coil around between the two versions of its neckline for its H&S, since both had shown some relevance in its trading pattern, and all those watching must be uncertain of which is the "real" neckline. However, I had thought that coiling might take place over a number of hours during the middle of the day and that the OEX might have broken one direction or the other by now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  2:43:30 PM
January Heating Oil (ho05f) 1.408 -3.52% (30-minute delayed) ... session low and also moving below its trending lower 21-day SMA here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  2:39:34 PM
QQQ is retesting 39.18-.20 from below here. Descending 30 min channel resistance is down to 39.38.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  2:35:08 PM
For reference, yesterday's OEX low was 557.73.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  2:32:45 PM
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp., the supplier of a third of China's jet fuel, lost about $550 million from a bad bet on oil prices and suspended its chief executive.

The Singapore-listed company, which halted trading in its shares yesterday, will propose a plan to creditors to stay in business, it said in a statement today to the Singapore stock exchange. The company's Beijing-based parent and Temasek Holdings Pte, Singapore's state-owned investment agency, may each invest $50 million in the rescue to gain a majority of the company.

The loss is close to China Aviation's market value of $570 million after a 49 percent slump in its stock since March 23. China Aviation, listed on the exchange in 2001, expanded into oil terminals and distribution, made an acquisition in Spain and wanted to invest in a Singapore oil refinery. Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  2:29:59 PM
PHLX announces changes to the SOX.X ... New additions are FSL $17.93 +3.2%, IFX $11.01 -1.6% and MRVL $32.15 +4.28%. Going out are MOT $19.29 -0.77% and LSI $5.27 -4.0%.

Full details at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  2:27:34 PM
QQQ continues to trade both sides of 39.12 as bonds continue to climb, with TNX now up just .6 bps at 4.336%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  2:24:12 PM
The OEX is slightly below the ascending trendline off yesterday's low, and is now again between the two versions of a neckline for the H&S on the 60-minute chart. A drop below yesterday's low would confirm the H&S neckline break. Remember, though, that stops can be run to the downside and then the movement quickly reversed, so at important turning points, be ready to jump out of a trade if you're soon proven wrong. TRIN isn't yet predicting any kind of cascading fall of the type I'd expect to see with a break of such a big formation's neckline, so be careful. Know before you even enter where you would exit if proven wrong.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  2:20:56 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  2:16:22 PM
Scanning some of the indicator indices I watch, I see that the TRAN remains above 3650, the BIX above 370 and the GHA positive, but the SOX is below its 200-ema and 426, both. Still a mixture of signs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  2:15:19 PM
Session high for ZN bond futures, with TNX up 1.1 bps currently at 4.341%. 4.32% is new support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  2:06:42 PM
Here's a chart I first posted last week, with the original annotations and markings: Link So far, the relationships still appear to hold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  2:05:57 PM
January Unleaded Gas (hu05f) $1.294 -1.6% (30-min delayed) ... 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on at this Link

Between Heating oil and Crude Oil

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  2:00:10 PM
January Heating Oil futures (ho05f) 1.429 -2.01% (30-min delayed) .... 30-minute interval chart with QCharts' weekly pivot levels turned on at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  1:56:36 PM
And a bounce on a burst of volume, back north of 39.12 QQQ. This is a tricky spot, but resistance has moved down to 39.18 and the picture should be bearish below 39.18-.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:54:11 PM
The OEX currently tests a rising trendline off yesterday's low, with that trendline now crossing at about 558.60.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  1:52:28 PM
QQQ has just let go of the bounce well below 39.18, now back below 39.12. This is surprisingly weak action and the short cycles are now rolling over from neutral. Look for next support at 39.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  1:45:40 PM
Second that, Linda. The drop caught me heavy-lidded as well.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:43:28 PM
I don't blame those buyers for nodding off, Jonathan. (See Jonathan's 13:38 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  1:39:10 PM
30 min channel support for QQQ is at 39.05, with 60 min channel support just below at 39.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:39:09 PM
The TRAN remains above 3650, although barely, and the BIX above the neckline of its H&S on its daily chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  1:38:41 PM
QQQ is testing 39.12 after a throwunder to 39.07. Volume didn't surge particularly strongly on the drop- more like the buyers just nodded off. For the second time today, QQQ bears need to see the price hold below 39.18-.20 on any bounce. The TRINQ is up to a neutral 1.01 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:38:29 PM
The SOX is back below its 200-ema again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:37:20 PM
Careful, bulls. The advdec line definitely drops now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:34:30 PM
The OEX is back within the space defined by the two versions of its neckline on its H&S visible on the 60-minute chart. The lowest of the two would be confirmed on a move below yesterday's low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  1:33:15 PM
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) $40.99 -1.74% ...

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/30/20,  1:27:30 PM
Here is the Tom Ridge story from the WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge has informed the White House and department staff that he has resigned, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

In an e-mail circulated to senior Homeland Security officials, Mr. Ridge praised the department as "an extraordinary organization that each day contributes to keeping America safe and free."

He also said he was privileged to work with the department's 180,000 employees "who go to work every day dedicated to making our company better and more secure."

A news conference has been set for 2:45 p.m. Eastern Time.

In October 2001, Mr. Ridge became the nation's first White House homeland security adviser, leading a massive undertaking to rethink all aspects of security within the U.S. borders in the wake of the terror attacks of September 2001.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  1:25:56 PM
QQQ is testing 39.18-.20 for the fourth or fifth time here as the short cycle oscillators hold flat at their respective midpoints. This is as close to directionless as it gets intraday.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  1:25:35 PM
Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge has resigned according to the Associated Press.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  1:13:56 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:13:32 PM
It's not major yet, but the ADVDEC line has flattened, "falling" sideways below its rising trendline.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  1:11:33 PM
Tom Ridge is expected to resign from his Homeland Security post today according to CNN.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:05:07 PM
The BIX has still not confirmed its H&S on its daily chart, although it also has not moved above the right-shoulder level and so has not rejected it, either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  1:03:45 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  1:03:19 PM
Stepping away for 15 minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  1:02:15 PM
Thanks, Jim, for the tip in your 12:58 post. Works like a charm.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  12:58:25 PM
On Qcharts you can go into "TOOLS" and "Check symbol ambiguity" and add the CL05F with the Nymex prefix and never have to type it all out again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:57:13 PM
The SOX is only cents above its 200-ema again. Hasn't bounced far yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:56:01 PM
During the last zoom higher, the TRAN did finally break back above 3650. It's easing back again in what may be a bull flag. Of course, we know what was driving the gain in the TRAN, allowing it to climb above resistance: the decline in crude prices.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:52:24 PM
Jeff's mention of crude reminded me to mention something that's been happening over the last few days. If you're a QCharts user and want to look at crude, for some reason you can no longer type in cl05f but must preface it with Nymex:, so that you'd actually be typing in Nymex:cl05f. It's not case sensitive, of course. I don't know why the change, because I've been happily typing in the symbol without the Nymex: prefix for many months now, but for some reason, that doesn't work over the last few days.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  12:52:02 PM
Unable to break either the 39.18 or 39.34 line, QQQ appears now to be determined to bore us, still hovering in this range. The 30 and 60 min channels are perfectly flat. Little movement from metals or bonds either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:46:27 PM
Getting a sneaky feeling that January Crude futures (cl05f) $49.00 -1.32% headed toward WEEKLY S1 of $47.96 at some point tomorrow morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:45:44 PM
The OEX currently tests its five-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages at 560.13 and 560.34, respectively, and with the OEX at 559.89 as I type. These averages played an important part in the OEX's behavior first thing yesterday morning, with the OEX clinging to them and testing them until about 10:50, at which point the OEX finally fell away from them, precipitating the steep decline into the low of the day. The OEX bounced back above the averages yesterday afternoon without even pausing, but did pause for about 30 minutes at them on the way back down again. Now the OEX has been testing them for almost 30 minutes again, proving their importance again. Note: As I typed, the OEX may have begun falling away from those averages.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:41:47 PM
Linda.... I've been working on an "ask the analyst" column regarding splits, and am using TASR as my example. One reason (of two) for thinking "sell 1/2" was that on a post-split point and figure chart, TASR would have also achieved its bullish vertical count.

What had me thinking "hold 1/2" is that the recent "sell signal" would be the 1st sell signal in the upward trend, thus a possible buying opportunity.

I'm really 50/50 on the stock at this point.

I did get feedback from trader that asked yesterday's question, and he and some trading friends did sell 1/2 of their positions yesterday before the close. They were holding Jan expiration. I had assumed December expiration, which was another reason I thought best to take 1/2 off the table.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  12:39:56 PM
The euro has flipped back into positive territory here, with gold back up 1.60 to 453.10, ditto silver at 7.812. Ten year notes have recovered, up 2.7 bps to 4.357%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:38:37 PM
December Crude Oil futures (cl05f) $49.35 -0.76% (30-minute delayed) ... would have just tested its WEEKLY Pivot of $49.13.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:37:04 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,177.75 , QQQ $39.30, BIX.X 372.12

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:36:44 PM
When viewed on a 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX's action doesn't inspire either bullish or bearish confidence. The OEX is once again in the middle of the bottom (bearish) half of the Keltner channels, but those channels appear to be trying to or actually establishing an equilibrium position in which the OEX might just bounce back and forth between one channel boundary and another. There's just nothing definitive there just yet. I don't feel confident about suggesting long plays when there's a big, fully formed H&S staring us in the face on the 60-minute chart. However, indices clearly don't want to break below those necklines, including the OEX, so I'm certainly not going to say, "Go ahead, jump in just ahead of the neckline," either. I think markets are just trying to sort it out, and we perhaps just ought to let them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:35:34 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:28:50 PM
As Jane may have already pointed out, the advdec line has been climbing since about 11:00. So have the indices, in just about the same shape as the advdec line's climb. Bulls want to watch for a breakdown of the advdec line below its rising trendline as well as watching crude's action, since a decline in crude may have been at least partially responsible for the rebound. (The dollar is also bouncing against the yen, at least, although it's difficult to ascertain sometimes what is cause and what is effect.)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:23:35 PM
Congratulations to your readers from yesterday, Jeff, who sought your opinion about TASR ahead of the split. They were wise to consider your suggestion to lighten positions by selling half, and now hopefully they're celebrating today's climb. That stock still scares me and holding over an "event" does, too, so I'm glad you were able to advise them. Protect those profits, though, guys.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:21:02 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,178.62, QQQ $39.33, BIX.X 372.19

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:20:24 PM
Mykrolis (MYK) $12.66 +2.09% ...

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 427.43 -0.46% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:18:12 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $27.45 +7.82% ... bugger is back to test morning highs of $27.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:17:21 PM
Rediff.com (REDF) $10.63 +10.38% ... pretty good pickup in volume since 11:30 AM EST.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  12:17:01 PM
After failing from a lower intraday high, QQQ bounced from an equal low at 39.18. So long as 39.30 doesn't get broken, this could prove to be a bearish descending triangle above 39.18 support. But with the current low volume, price can drift more easily through resistance/support levels. The key range remains 39.18-39.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:16:38 PM
Although the SOX dipped below 526, as Marc noted on the Futures side of the Monitor, it's bouncing above that again, as well as above the 200-ema. While bears can expect some back and forth this morning, they don't want to see the SOX turn positive and leave a lower shadow behind as it springs up toward the 200-sma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:14:18 PM
Bullish swing trade long alert .... for 1/2 bullish position in Keane Inc. (KEA) $15.81 here, stop $15.60, target $16.20.

WEEKLY Pivot levels for KEA are $15.20, $15.47, Piv= $15.70, $15.97, $16.20.

Very similar business to Ciber (CBR)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  12:11:29 PM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 49.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:09:28 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:02:05 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:01:17 PM
The BIX hovers just above the neckline for a H&S on its daily chart, but is at the neckline for a smaller one, visible on its 30- and 60-minute charts. This smaller one forms the right shoulder of the larger one seen on the daily chart. The BIX violated that smaller H&S's neckline but then bounced slightly above it again, where it sits now.

These indices do not want to confirm these H&S's seen on several charts. If bears ever win the day, the markets could cascade down, but the opposite could happen, too, if bulls finally win over the battle and a relief rally ensues.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  11:57:12 AM
NVLS has a mid quarter update tonight and this could be weighing on the SOX as well as Intel's update on Thursday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:55:36 AM
Looks like we've just seen another lower intraday high for QQQ. The next attempt, due now, should break 39.18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  11:55:21 AM
The SOX just barely breached the 200-ema to the downside, but didn't break 426 and is now exactly at that average as I type. Stay tuned.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:55:12 AM
Interesting study done.... a BBC article suggests that commuters going to and from work every day can experience more stress than a fighter pilot or riot policeman.

The situation turns more ugly if you combine that news with another study out today reaffirming concerns that stress can speed up the aging process.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:53:02 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 691.79 +0.74% .... little bounce from rising 21-day SMA (685.82)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:51:57 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) seller building... up 4.9 bp at 4.379%.

Yield curve is steepening, which should be favorable for stocks. Question is, is yield moving up to fast?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  11:50:33 AM
That didn't take long. The OEX is back between the two necklines again, two different versions of the neckline for the H&S visible on the 60-minute chart. So far, this morning has met my expectation that the OEX would spend some time between the two necklines before deciding on a final direction. (See my 10:43 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:46:53 AM
The euro has just entered negative territory, currently down .1% at 1.3263 for the Dec. contract.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:46:44 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 426.51 -0.78% ... sitting at MONTHLY R1 (427.22). Today's correlative WEEKLY S1 and DAILY S1 not tested with session low of 426.09.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:45:41 AM
Alternative clothes retailer Hot Topic (HOTT) is down 12% to $16.58. Last night the company issued an earnings warning and this morning several brokers downgraded the stock.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:44:56 AM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $41.99 -0.14% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:44:24 AM
QQQ is still trying to break that 39.30-.34 level. Volume is low, however, and the price continues to drift.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:44:00 AM
Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) is up 13.2% to $42.03 and nearing all-time highs near $43.25. The company issued upside earnings guidance this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:43:38 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 371.07 -0.35% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:42:20 AM
Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $65.43 +0.69% ... hanging tough after three-consecutive closes in that little "zone" from $64.78-$65.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:42:18 AM
Red Hat (RHAT) is up 10.5% to $14.85 and breaking out over its two-month trend of lower highs and its simple 100-dma. The stock has been upgraded to "over weight" by Prudential.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:40:51 AM
Ciber Inc. (CBR) $9.25 +1.42% ... trying to make a little move above $9.25 resistance.

A "small cap growth" stock in my book.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  11:40:37 AM
The OEX pushes up a bit above the necklines for the H&S's on both its 60-minute and seven-minute charts. It will face first resistance at about 559.80, and then again near 560.70.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:39:36 AM
Another drug stock, Elan Corp (ELN), is down 5.6% to $25.92 after being downgraded to a "hold" by Deutsche Bank.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:37:59 AM
Merck (MRK) $27.94 +0.97% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:37:24 AM
FRX $39.15 +1.63% and PFE $27.76 +1.60% ... both rather strong this morning.

DRG.X 300.66 -0.04% .... flat.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:30:38 AM
Sanderson Farms (SAFM) is up 2.14% and breaking out over its exponential 200-dma and the bottom of its gap down from August at $37.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:28:44 AM
The descending resistance line connecting the intraday highs is at 39.30 QQQ, with the previous wavelet high at 39.34.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:28:33 AM
OI call play EBAY is not showing any weakness here up 15 cents to $112.80 despite some comments out today suggesting the stock is fairly valued.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:27:00 AM
OI call play COP is showing strength (+0.8%) as it nears another new all-time high.

 
 
  James Brown   11/30/20,  11:25:03 AM
We had OSIP on the watch list last night as a bearish candidate. Shares are slipping another 2.5% after yesterday's breakdown under support at $50.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  11:24:02 AM
The TRAN has been trading sideways for several days now, with doji forming around 3650. The TRAN is at 3650.22 as I type, with the daily candle so far a doji.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  11:21:13 AM
The BIX dipped momentarily below 370 but did not dip below the descending version of a neckline for the H&S visible on its daily chart. As I mentioned yesterday, this formation is a bit problematic because almost immediately after confirming this formation, the BIX will hit perhaps formidable support from 366-367.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:20:57 AM
QQQ held 39.18 once again, and is back to the midpoint within the 30 and 60 min cycle channels. QQQ needs to break the 39.34 level to violate pattern of lower highs in place since the cash open.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  11:18:07 AM
The OEX is still stuck between those two neckline versions for the H&S visible on the 60-minute chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:11:23 AM
The miners are getting hit, with Feb. gold down 70 cents, HUI is down 2.62% at 236.56, XAU -2.93% at 106.79.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  11:06:50 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Spot Gold getting hit lower

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:06:39 AM
Ten year notes have sunk back to their earlier levels at 4.353%, +2.3 bps here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:05:59 AM
Session low for March silver here at 7.762.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  11:05:09 AM
QQQ continues to toy with the 39.18-.20 confluence, with the session low not yet retested at 39.12. This is occurring during what should be a 30 min and 60 min cycle upphase, and so it looks bearish to me- but traders need to see the price go down and stay down before accepting the bearish picture. This could still prove to be an extended bull flag since yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  11:04:58 AM
As I type, the SOX is less than $0.40 above its 200-ema.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:56:28 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 369.97 -0.65% ... session low here. Will be tough for SPX 1,174.58 -0.33% to find much of a bid.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:54:19 AM
The OEX is still caught between the two versions of the neckline for the H&S formation visible on the 60-minute chart, not a great place for an entry either direction, I'd say. As per my earlier posts, I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX chop around in this zone for a while.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:50:27 AM
The BIX tests the H&S neckline on its daily chart, at 370.26 as I type, with the formation confirmed either at the 11/22 low of 369.74 if you draw the neckline horizontally or at about 369.40 if you draw it declining, including all shadows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:48:34 AM
10:45 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:47:34 AM
The TRAN coils beneath 3650.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:44:29 AM
Session low for Feb. gold here at 452.70, +1.2 for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:43:14 AM
The OEX hovers around the original neckline I had drawn for the H&S visible on the 60-minute chart, making me wonder if it has some validity after all despite the lack of follow-through yesterday on the break of that neckline. The OEX has not confirmed the formation by dropping below yesterday's low, a confirmation I think I'd want to see today. In fact, I'm kind of expecting some bouncing around this morning between the original 559.25-ish neckline and the new 558-ish one before the OEX finally decides on confirmation or rejection. Whether any such rejection would be temporary or a real rejection is another question, but I wouldn't feel comfortable playing it long on the assumption that the formation would be rejected.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:42:01 AM
QQQ's holding this sideways drift, but the range has been setting lower highs and lower lows since the cash open. The break through 39.18 hit support, with the current low set at 39.12. The cycle channels are flat, and it will take a sustained break below 39.18, preferably below 39.12, to abort their attempted upphase.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:32:38 AM
No word from the Fed today with respect to the expiring repo. The desk has not confirmed that there will be no action today- just that no action has yet been announced. If nothing gets done, it will result in a 3B net drain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:31:23 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 370.18 -0.59% ....

10-year yield ($TNX.X) now up just 1.1 bp at 4.341%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:31:22 AM
Based on the configuration of the OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart, it might be slow-going for the OEX to make much downside progress, either, until it gets below the Keltner line currently at 556.54 on a 60-minute closing basis. Until then, there's a possibility that the OEX will keep trying to bounce from support, back up to test next resistance. If the OEX closes a 60-minute period below that dynamic Keltner line, that sets up the same possible 546 downside target that the H&S does, but we could be in for some choppiness until then.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:29:15 AM
Bullish day trade stop alert for Taser Intl. (TASR) $27.15

Was looking like it wanted to break above WEEKLY R2 of $27.51, now below DAILY R2 of $27.17.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:24:23 AM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,177.51, QQQ $39.31.

BIX.X 370.94

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:22:57 AM
Day trade long alert for Taser Intl. (TASR) $27.50 here, stop $27.15, target $28.57.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:19:01 AM
The OEX continues to hesitate near the neckline for the H&S visible on the 60-minute chart, a neckline that would be confirmed on a move below yesterday's low. Is this a bounce area or will that H&S be confirmed? Bears can wait for a confirmation, of course, because the formation suggests plenty of downside, but bulls wanting to buy a bounce, if that formation is going to be rejected, want to know now since this would be the best entry. I'm not someone who would bet on a rejection of such a formation unless I had tons and tons of other information in such a play's favor, and I don't see it yet. TRIN isn't immoderately high, but neither is it especially bullish. Crude is above $50.00, although a quick reversal there would perhaps help equities. Sorry, want-to-be bulls, I can't see enough information in your favor to suggest such a play.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:15:50 AM
QQQ drifted back above the line. No volume, no confidence.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:12:59 AM
Look for resistance at 39.20 QQQ from this break. There was no surge in volume, and so the move remains suspect.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:12:23 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:12:00 AM
The TRAN turns down again just below its last five-minute high. It's been forming a series of lower five-minute highs this morning, forming a bit of a H&S-ish formation itself, neckline at about 3640.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:09:02 AM
Bonds remain steady, with TNX up .7 bps at 4.337%, recovering from its earlier losses.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:08:47 AM
The SOX sits about a point above its 200-ema, but is climbing slightly as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:07:39 AM
The OEX hesitates just where appropriate to form a right shoulder for the smaller H&S on its 7-minute chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:06:03 AM
Session high for Nymex crude at 50.30 here, +1.06%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  10:03:47 AM
The OEX again bounces from the neckline area of the larger H&S seen on the 60-minute chart as well as the smaller one seen on the 7-minute chart. It hasn't bounced above the right-shoulder level on that seven-minute chart, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  10:02:38 AM
There was a brief moment of sound and fury, but it signified nothing. QQQ continues to trade both sides of the 7200-tick SMA, though that line has stopped rising for the moment. To avoid getting stuck in a blender, look for a directional move above 39.40 or belo 39.18. A burst of volume will confirm the break.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  10:02:25 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  9:58:32 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 370.24 -0.58% ....

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 3.3 bp at 4.363%.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  9:57:28 AM
PMI = 65.2 (est 62.4, last 68.5)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:56:55 AM
The OEX creeps down toward yesterday's low, the confirming level of a neckline break on the larger H&S visible on the OEX's 60-minute chart, but it's not there yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  9:56:14 AM
Awaiting the Chicago PMI, est. 62.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  9:55:29 AM
Headlines:

CONNSUMER CONFIDENCE LOWEST SINCE MARCH

9:54am U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BELOW CONSENSUS 95.7

9:54am U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 90.5 VS 92.9 OCT

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  9:55:17 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $27.34 +7.35% ... disputes Amnesty International's safety report. TASR saying it stands behind safety of TASER technology and said it is dismayed that Amnesty Intl. refuses to accept independent and comprehensive reports concerning the saftey and effectiveness of the TASER system.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/30/20,  9:54:01 AM
Alert - Consumer Confidence = 90.5, (est 96.0, last 92.8)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:53:43 AM
So far, the OEX springs up from the original neckline I'd drawn for that H&S on the 60-minute chart. This brought it up to the right-shoulder level for the smaller H&S visible on the 7-minute chart. The neckline for that formation is now at about 559.15, near the originally drawn 558.90-ish neckline for the larger H&S. OEX 560.60-561.15 is an appropriate right-shoulder level for that smaller H&S.

We're seeing lots of confirmation here that the bears are trying to pull things together and send the indices lower. We know, however, that important economic numbers can change the picture, so be careful about making assumptions just yet and, if you're determined to enter positions, be prepared for volatility that might come after the 10:00 numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  9:51:12 AM
VIX.X 13.21 -0.67% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.53, 12.85, Piv = 13.27, 13.59, 14.00.

SPX 1,177.62 -0.08% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  9:49:39 AM
QQQ bounced from a higher low above the overnight levels, and is reaching for combined 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 39.50. Note the intraday cycles are still chopped up, with the 60 min channel now rising while the 30 min channel is flat with a slight negative slope. More than 10 minutes above 39.35 should be enough to turn it back positive.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  9:48:59 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:44:36 AM
The SOX dips again toward its 200-ema, with that average at 426.34 and the SOX at 428.66 as I type. In the SOX's case, it looks as if it will get parked just above or near this important support ahead of the 10:00 data.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:41:32 AM
The TRAN falls this morning, currently testing the ascending trendline built off yesterday's higher five-minute lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:39:45 AM
Since there was no precipitous fall upon the presumed neckline break yesterday of the H&S on the 60-minute OEX chart (see the chart linked to my 9:31 post), the possibility or probability must be considered that I drew the neckline wrong. That idea was behind my suggestion in an earlier post that you confirm the neckline break by a move below yesterday's OEX low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  9:39:41 AM
Session low for QQQ here at 39.23, back below 7200-tick SMA support. Key confluence is just below at 39.18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:36:34 AM
Remember to be cautious about initiating new positions ahead of the 10:00 data. Make sure you have everything possible going for such a position.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:35:39 AM
The OEX dipped below 560 but sprang back above it and now hovers near that level (dipping some as I type). On a Keltner basis, the OEX is in the middle of the bottom (bearish) half of the 7-minute Keltner channels, below mid-channel resistance and above mid-channel support. There's potential for another smaller (not the 60-minute version just shown in a previous post) H&S on the 7-minute chart, with a right shoulder to be completed by a bounce up to 560.70-561.20 and a rollover from there. It's not clear if any bounce attempt will be made ahead of 559, however, but watch for bounce potential at that level, if not at 559.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  9:31:14 AM
Here's the H&S I'm watching on the OEX's 60-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  9:30:28 AM
The Fed has a relatively small 3B overnight repo expiring today. We await the 10AM announcement with respect thereto.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  9:28:43 AM
QQQ remains 3 cents above rising 7200-tick SMA support within the sideways 30 and 60 min cycle channels. The 30 min cycle is attempting an upturn but it's very weak so far. Nonetheless, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls above 39.18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  8:55:16 AM
In addition to a number of economic releases today, the CSFB Technology Conference begins today, with a number of tech biggies presenting. Those companies include CSCO, DELL and MSFT, among others. If you're trading one of these stocks or other presenters, including BRCM, TECD, INTU, ANDW, LRCS, ERTS, RHAT and MRVL, pay particular attention today and tomorrow, as upgrades or downgrades might occur as a result of the conference.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  8:50:15 AM
The US Dollar Index (30 min delayed at this Link ) hit a new low of 81.65 at 8AM. It will be another few minutes before we can see the action that took place at 8:30AM. Gold and silver eased slightly off their highs, and so I expect that the dollar took a light bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  8:49:16 AM
For those who missed it, here's the post from last night regarding the OEX's behavior on Monday: Monday, the OEX fell below the neckline of a rough H&S on the 60-minute chart, soon stabilized at historical and other support, and zoomed up above that neckline again. After hanging near the 562-562.50 S/R zone for a period of hour, just below the right-shoulder level, late-day selling sent the OEX below the neckline again, but not below the supporting trendline off the day's low. Not yet. We have several important economic releases at 8:30 and then at 10:00 this morning, with those releases perhaps manufacturing some volatility tomorrow morning. If that formation confirms again by falling below today's low, it sets a potential downside target near 546.30, where Keltner support also lies, corroborating the target if the formation is confirmed. A climb above today's high would instead tend to negate the formation.

As I type, futures are near the flat-line level. We've still got the 10:00 numbers to get through, and I'd be cautious of positions ahead of those numbers. Markets are often maneuvered just under next resistance or just above next support ahead of important numbers, parked there to be ready for the next move and that next move--immediately after an announcement--is sometimes not the final one (a la this morning's first reaction in the futures to the 8:30 numbers).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  8:34:09 AM
QQQ is edging up within its rolling 30 min cycle channel, with 30 min channel resistance up at 39.54 currenly. The pop just now pulled QQQ above its 7200-tick SMA at 39.25, with price currently up .081 at 39.291.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  8:32:48 AM
Session low for bond futures now, dropping steeply to 111.29, TNX now up 2.7 bps at 4.357%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  8:31:51 AM
Equities like the news, with QQQ up .06 to 39.27 and the futures hitting session highs. Gold is holding at 455, silver at 7.84. TNX is up 1.4 bps at 4.344%, ZN bonds down .609 at 111.45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  8:30:43 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. Q3 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOMES UP 2%

8:30am U.S. Q3 BEFORE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS FALL 2.4%

8:30am U.S. Q3 BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT 12.9% VS. 11.7%

8:30am U.S. Q3 CONSUMER SPENDING REVISED 5.1% VS. 4.5%

8:30am U.S. Q3 FINAL SALES REVISED TO 4.9% VS. 4.2%

8:30am U.S. Q3 CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UNCHANGED AT 0.7%

8:30am U.S. Q3 GDP REVISIONS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

8:30am U.S. Q3 GDP REVISED TO 3.9% VS. 3.7% PREVIOUSLY

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  8:18:40 AM
Feb. gold is up 4.50 to 456, while March silver is up .199 to 7.865. Equities remain mixed while treasuries remain weak.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/30/20,  7:43:38 AM
Equities are mixed to lower, with ES trading 1175, NQ 1577.5, YM 10451 and QQQ flat at 39.20. Gold is up 3.5 to 452.80, silver up 20 cents to a session high of 7.815, ten year notes down .546 to 111.51 and Nymex crude +.1 at 49.85.

We await the 8:30 release of the Preliminary GDP for Q3, est. 3.7%, chain deflator, est. 1.3% and at 10AM, consumer confidence for November, est. 96 and Chicago PMI, est. 62.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  7:17:15 AM
Good morning. Economic disappointments in Japan were responsible for sending the Nikkei lower last night, while other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances, some benefiting from a steadying dollar. Europe sees its share of troubling economic news this morning, too, with the French unemployment and business confidence numbers disappointing and with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowering 2005's estimates of economic growth for the eurozone as well as for Japan and the U.S. Our futures have stayed relatively steady although the OECD news was only about an hour old as of this report. As of 6:58 EST, gold was down $0.07 and crude, up $0.15 to $49.91. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

October's Japanese factory production, household spending, and unemployment numbers all disappointed Tuesday. Industrial production fell 1.6% against an expectation of a 0.1% gain. Household spending decreased 1.2%, especially troublesome. Japan needs a boom in household spending since exports might be affected by the weakening dollar. Some think spending might have been impacted by the typhoons and earthquakes over the last quarter. Unemployment rose to 4.7% with most economists expecting unemployment to stay steady at 4.6%.

The dollar firmed against the yen and other currencies overnight, but that didn't help the Nikkei as it did the Kospi. After testing its 50-dma yesterday but failing to close above it, the Nikkei gapped lower Tuesday morning and headed down. It managed to stabilize and closed near the middle of its range, down 78.64 points or 0.72%, at 10,899.25, just below the 10,900 level that has proven so important for the Nikkei lately. Auto manufacturers fell, investors took profits in steel manufacturers, many banking-related issues declined, and techs were mixed. Toshiba benefited from news that many Hollywood studios would embrace its next generation DVD format, favoring it over that created by a group that includes Sony.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.03%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.46, with the won weakening against the dollar. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.54%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.05%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.05%.

Many European markets decline this morning. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) trimmed its growth outlook for 2005 for the U.S., Europe, and Japan, citing the sharp increases in oil prices. It expects growth to increase in all regions in 2006. Also this morning, in seeming contradiction to the OECD which had also lowered the eurozone's estimate for 2004, the French finance minister said he supported the government's belief that France would see 2.5% economic growth this year. He cited the government's plan to trim taxes. This came as INSEE also released figures showing that France's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at a troublesome 9.9% and as November's French business confidence eased from October's 107 to 105.

The French government was also in the news today due to its previously reported efforts to finesse a merger of Thales with EADS, to allow for better competition with other defense-related companies. Across Europe, financials detailed plans for restructuring.

As of EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 39.10 points or 0.82%, to 4,710.70. The CAC 40 had fallen 15.52 points or 0.41%, to 3,765.09. The DAX had declined only 4.12 points or 0.10%, to 4,142.86.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/29/20,  8:48:29 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/29/20,  8:30:05 PM
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