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  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:44:31 PM
Linda (07:22:42) .... I see now. I had taken a downward regression on the 60-min chart too, from the same 11/17 high (anchor), but had then used the attaching point at the 11/29 11:30 AM low (which did honor the 11/29 09:30 AM high).

It's 571, here I come, as bulls look to thrive above 555. I will fall off my chair and hit the floor, if by December's end they're looking 584. Link

At 584, that's a bull's yuletide carol. One has to think to get there, then oil is at $36 per barrel.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:33:19 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  7:22:42 PM
Jeff, I'm sorry that I missed your 4:26 post. I was busy writing the Wrap and continuing the research begun earlier in the day. The hand-drawn descending channel to which I referred had a top descending trendline that was begun at the 11/17 high and the touched the 11/29 9:30 high on the 60-minute chart. However, by the end of the day, the last thrust higher in the OEX had also broken through the QCharts-drawn regression channel.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  7:18:11 PM
The OEX broke above a descending regression channel that had been building since early November--a bull flag. It has not yet broken above the November high, however, and the breakout is tentative until it does. Buying pullbacks to and bounces from 563-563.50 appear to be the best new entries for bullish plays right now. If any pullback looks impulsive rather than corrective, to borrow Keene's terms (and probably to use them incorrectly), then we'll perhaps question the validity of the upside breakout. Until then, we must just assume that it's valid. Be careful ahead of the Intel update tomorrow after the close, however, and decide before you ever enter a play if you intend to exit before the close and under what conditions you would hold overnight, such as needing a certain cushion first.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  4:26:02 PM
Linda... Where did you take your two points for regression from? (03:57:25).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  4:15:01 PM
Sell Program Premium ... DIA 105.73, SPY 119.30, QQQQ $39.92

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  4:10:37 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Stopped out of the one (1) APA Jan. $50 Call (APA-AJ) at $3.40. (break-even).

Sold two (2) of the four (4) SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ) at the bid of $2.25. ($0.55 per contract, or +32.5%). This action was largely an account management decision. Brings this holding to 1/2 bullish position.

Swing trade 1/2 bullish call in the SNDK April $22.50 calls (SWQ-DX) at the offer of $3.30. (Note: SNDK is a component of the SMH as well as the DDX.X)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:57:25 PM
The way I hand-draw trendlines, the OEX broke out of the bull flag to the upside today, but the way QCharts draws the regression channels (presumably using regression analysis, hence the word "regression"), it hasn't just yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:54:38 PM
I haven't looked at Intel's chart for a while. If you look at just the right corner of that daily chart, INTC's pattern looks like a potential H&S forming under the 200-sma, complete with bearish price/MACD divergence as the head was formed--pretty bearish looking. Pull back to the full screen, though, and you get a larger potential inverse H&S with the neckline near the 200-sma, and with bullish price/MACD divergence as that head was formed. I hate competing bullish and bearish formations on the same chart because they show me that investors haven't made up their minds yet. This chart troubles me, too, because those leaping on a long play on a break above that neckline would be jumping in right in the middle of Intel's big gap from July. There's just too much potential for that biiig gap to hold as resistance, so that the moment one jumps in, the move might be reversed. Must be better risks to take, better stocks to play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:49:26 PM
For reference, the Intel update tomorrow is at 5:30, according to my schedule, so we still have an entire day of pre-Intel-update trading tomorrow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  3:47:48 PM
Bullish swing trade close out two calls alert ... I want/need to sell two (2) of the SMH Jan. $32.50 calls (SMH-AZ) at the bid of $2.25.

Having four (4) is still more than a full position, and with the addition of the SNDK calls profiled today, let's sell a little strength, book a gain on the two (2) bought on 10/27/04.

SMH $33.74 +3.84% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  3:46:06 PM
30 min channel resistance is now overlaid with 60 min resistance at 39.98 QQQQ. The short cycle oscillators are trending, and support has advanced from 39.72 to 39.81.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/1/200,  3:45:30 PM
I just checked the Qs on Esignal and they have a blank chart for QQQ and all the data for QQQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:45:22 PM
The OEX has again touched seven-minute Keltner resistance. Each time it has today, it's pulled back, but those pullbacks have been shallow so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  3:40:40 PM
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.94 +4.67% ... I think that was a bad tick at $7.00, but might get there by the close.

Continues to bump at $6.95.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  3:39:26 PM
GeoPharma (GORX) $7.25 +63.65% ... still halted. Very confusing messages from the FDA. See 03:15 intra-day update at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  3:36:53 PM
Thanks, Linda and Jim. That's the way it is on Quotetracker as well.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:31:44 PM
The SOX remains above its 200-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:30:36 PM
Sorry, Jonathan. There may be a way to transfer those lines, retracements, etc., on QCharts, but I don't know how to do it if there is.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/1/200,  3:30:06 PM
Same problem with Qcharts and the QQQ/QQQQ. They will eventually get it fixed but not until several thousand traders complain

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  3:29:05 PM
Since we have the new symbol for the Q's today there isn't any historical data,tend lines, retracements,ect. on Q'charts. Do you know of any work around to merge the old symbols data with the current synbol? Thanks, Steve

Good question, Steve. I use Interactive Brokers with Quotetracker, and as noted early this morning, I was unable to backfill the data and had to fly blind for my intraday charts. I don't use Qcharts, but hopefully someone out there who does can lend a hand. Anyone?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:19:14 PM
The OEX negated the latest H&S, too, of course, taking care of it the same way it took care of the earlier one.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:18:04 PM
The TRAN zooms toward its 3797.05 high from May, 1999. This should be strong resistance for the TRAN. As it's climbed off its early 2003 low, its S/R zones have matched fairly closely the Fib bracket of that decline. The recovery off the bear-market low has been a V-shaped recovery, but now we'll soon see what the TRAN does with that previous high. With the TRAN at 3733.63 as I type, it's less than a day away from touching that previous high. Even if the TRAN is going to keep climbing, anywhere from today's level to that previous high would be an appropriate place for the TRAN to pull back into a bull flag.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  3:11:54 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  3:04:07 PM
Bears failed to get QQQQ back below 39.72, and there's a retest of the previous high in QQQQ. A failure below 39.90 would be peachy for bears, but the benefit of the doubt clearly goes to the bulls above 39.72.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  3:03:38 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  3:01:32 PM
The SOX has inched above its 200-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  2:59:13 PM
The OEX is at about the absolute top level that could be considered an appropriate right-shoulder level for the H&S on its 7-minute chart and is perhaps even a bit above that appropriate level. In a previous post, I had mentioned that MACD was flattening, perhaps preceding an attempt to curve up as the OEX moved higher, and it continues that flattening process, the histogram now just on the verge of going positive.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:56:06 PM
Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 (MSH.X) alert 497.70 +2.21% ... moves to 7-month high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:54:54 PM
BIX.X alert 377.79 +1.58% .... WEEKLY R2 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  2:48:07 PM
The OEX hasn't clearly negated that H&S on the top of its seven-minute chart, but it certainly hasn't confirmed it, either. The seven-minute MACD tries to flatten again, perhaps in preparation for an attempt at negating that formation. On a Keltner basis, the OEX drops within another channel line, suggesting that unless it can rise to a new high, it risks working its way down toward the mid-channel level again, with that mid-channel line now at about 562, but still rising.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  2:41:45 PM
The short cycle downphase is in the process of aborting as QQQ begins to lift back above 7200-tick SMA support. However, the 30 min cycle channel has begun to roll over, and this would be a perfect setup for a double top or lower high below 39.86 QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:38:45 PM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 58.96 +5.41% ... has broken above recent relative highs of 57.86 found on 11/15/04. Sector bulls sense oil weakness. Will note that a downward trend from October 2003 relative highs being violated to the upside in in last 90-minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:34:52 PM
January Crude (cl05f) $45.90 -6.47% (30-minute delayed) ... just off session low of $45.70, but slips below important near-term support of $46.20, its low settlement of 11/16/04 (see last night's Index Trader Wrap)

Daily interval chart has MACD (-0.493) starting to roll below zero, and crossing below its Signal (-0.482). Should we see a close like this, weakness could snowball into Friday's settlement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  2:32:25 PM
Careful, OEX bulls. That formation on the OEX's seven-minute chart looks like a well-formed H&S in the making. Careful, OEX bears. We've seen one of these formations negated today, and we could see another. The VXO, which had been rising to challenge the descending trendline off yesterday's high has now dropped again. TRIN flattened.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:32:02 PM
SMH $33.52 +3.17% ... session high. Eats through that $33.50 stock.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:24:36 PM
GeoPharma (GORX) 6.81 +63.65% ... shares have been halted. Wild trade in this one today.

Bloomberg... FDA now saying Mucotrol drug isn't approved.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:19:19 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/1/200,  2:17:53 PM
Reader request-

I would like to communicate with a trader in the Douglasville or Atlanta, Georgia area. Could you help me? Thanks James

Anybody interested just send me an email and I will connect you.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  2:17:02 PM
Session low for ten year note futures are well at 111.3438, TNX up 2.1 bps at 4.379%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  2:15:37 PM
Sometimes the nested Keltner channels are so elegant. At 13:43, I returned to my desk to note that an OEX pullback looked imminent based on the configuration of the Keltner channels, with the pullback starting then, almost to the minute. Sometimes they don't give this much information or information that's this timely, but often they do. Unfortunately, trading OEX options doesn't always allow us to jump on the moves that are suggested, since they need to be big enough to allow traders to recapture spreads and commissions.

This pullback presents the possibility that the OEX is again attempting to form a H&S at the top of its climb, and this one a bigger one that the former one seen on the three-minute chart. The neckline would be at about 563.50, and the formation would have a downside target to about 562.00 if it's confirmed. It would be negated by a climb to a new high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  2:13:37 PM
A new session low for crude oil at 45.725, down 6.9%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  2:08:27 PM
TRIN still sort of generally rises, but the advdec line remains flat (and strongly positive). The VXO is climbing, however, now testing a descending trendline off yesterday morning's early high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:04:42 PM
Swing trade bullish call stop alert .... stopped on the one (1) APA Jan. $50 call (APA-AJ) at $3.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  2:03:51 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  2:02:14 PM
QQQQ did snap back up, but it's stopped dead at the rolling 7200 tick SMA resistance line. Bulls need to clear 39.82. Bears need to stop them.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/1/200,  2:00:32 PM
Fed Beige Book - Almost all districts showng improved economic growth. Numerous reports of hiring from Oct into Nov. Some companies able to pass on price increases. Some inflation signs continuing to appear.

Link to full text: Link

Overall consumer spending was uneven since the last Beige Book, with only a few Districts reporting stronger retail sales and many noting mixed, flat or slower sales. Automobile sales were flat to down across most Districts, and several Districts reported higher dealer inventories than desired.

Labor markets continued to improve over the past few weeks, with numerous reports of hiring. The Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis and New York Districts reported increased hiring or improved labor markets. Contacts in several Districts noted difficulty finding workers for specific occupations, such as accounting, construction and skilled professionals in the energy industry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  1:59:20 PM
Exxon Mobil (XOM) $51.05 -0.39% .... hang'n tough... (I'm thinking that Dow "membership has some privileges" today)

Apache Corp. (APA) $52.37 -3.14% ... get'n ambushed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  1:55:07 PM
39.82 QQQQ just cracked, and 30 min channel support is now 5 cents away. If QQQQ bears can avoid a bungee snap back up, the now flat channel will roll over, at long last.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  1:50:17 PM
The SOX has stalled beneath its 200-sma. It's been challenging that average since 11:40 this morning.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  1:49:41 PM
Negative news out from Dollar General (DG) today. The company guided its full year 2004 earnings to the low end of its range. The company plans to close 60-80 stores in 2005. Shares are down 1.77% and breaking down under its 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  1:47:23 PM
Tootsie Roll (TR) is up 4% and breaking out over resistance at $32.00 and its exponential 200-dma after receiving an upgrade this morning.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  1:44:10 PM
Chico's FAS Inc (CHS) is up 13.8% following yesterday's strong same-store sales numbers and this morning's upgrades.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  1:44:04 PM
The 5% sell-off in the January crude futures has stalled at the rising 100-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  1:43:48 PM
I'm back. I don't know if anyone else has mentioned this, but the Fed's Beige Book is due to be released in a few minutes.

The OEX's three-minute chart shows the OEX slipping beneath Keltner resistance for the first time, with the OEX looking as if a small pullback is imminent as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  1:43:36 PM
I'm back. I don't know if anyone else has mentioned this, but the Fed's Beige Book is due to be released in a few minutes.

The OEX's three-minute chart shows the OEX slipping beneath Keltner resistance for the first time, with the OEX looking as if a small pullback is imminent as I type.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  1:36:32 PM
Auto sales

Toyota Motor (TM) says their November sales for Toyota-brand vehicles rose 9.8%. Their Lexus-brand sales rose 3.1%.

Nissan (NSANY) is reporting their November Nissan-brand sales climbed 30% and its Infiniti-brand sales jumped 38%.

DaimlerChrysler (DCX) is reporting Chrysler-brand sales were up 4% in November and its Mercedes-Benz-brand sales were up 3%.

Ford (F) reported that its Jaguar-brand sales rose 19% in November. Volvo-brand sales up 2.6%, Land Rover-brand was up 28.3%. Meanwhile the Ford-brand lost 6.9%. The Mercury-brand sales fell 17% and the Lincoln brand lost 16.4%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  1:36:00 PM
30 min channel support is at 39.68 QQQ. A short cycle downphase will kick off on a break below 39.70-.72, and after approximately 10 minutes, the 30 minute channel should roll over.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  1:19:24 PM
Session low for Nymex crude at 46.075, down over 6% now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  1:14:54 PM
Speaking of never seen being seen before... HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,173.99 +2.31% Link .... an all-time high. That triple top buy at 1,115 unleashed a bullish flury didn't it?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  1:13:27 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  1:12:39 PM
Off topic, but my spam blocker just caught a spam email that appears to be promoting a pornographic debt consolidation service- very strange, and never before seen. Hopefully never again...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  1:11:25 PM
Stepping away for about 30 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  1:05:56 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  1:01:22 PM
QQQQ is retesting the 38.80-.83 level, but the 30 min cycle channel continues to rise with support now at 39.67. Above 39.70-.72, this remains a very bullish picture for QQQQ.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/1/200,  12:59:36 PM
Deja vu? Is the Dow going to 10750? I'm looking for any bearish divergences in the coming weeks. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  12:56:52 PM
As I noted often happened in the chart linked to my 12:32, the OEX negated the potential H&S on its three-minute chart and climbed higher. We can't assume that such formations will confirm or will meet their downside targets in a strongly trending market. Watching them is still valuable, however, as it allows us to see whether bulls or bears still hold sway. Bulls do, for now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  12:54:07 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  12:53:00 PM
Reader Question: Is there an easy way to determine what the equivalent is in the OEX for a SPX or NQ number? In other words if I am going to sell a SPX Dec. 1130 put, what is the equivalent number for the OEX?

Response: I posted this question on the MM since I don't know of any easy way to determine an equivalent relationship other than observation and making a judgment call, but I thought someone else might have a better idea. That judgment call must take into effect how big caps (OEX) might perform against the mixture of capitalizations found in the SPX.

Leaving that assessment aside, the following exercise demonstrates the difficulty. When the SPX was consolidating near 1130 in mid-September, the OEX was consolidating near 547, so OEX 547 would seem to equate to SPX 1130 by that measure. However, a 61.8% retracement of the SPX's rally off the October low lies near 1128, while a 61.8% retracement of the OEX's rally off the October low lies near 540, much lower than we would expect from the first observation. The OEX's 200-ema lies at 541.60, near that 61.8% retracement, but when one turns to the analogous average on the SPX, it's at 1114.95. The SPX's 200-sma is at 1122.56, just below that mid-September consolidation level, while the OEX's is at 545.75, just above that mid-September consolidation level.

This is my problem when I'm looking at SPX futures in the morning and trying to guess where the OEX might open. It's not always as straight-forward as it might seem. The best I can narrow it down is that SPX 1130 might roughly correlate to OEX 540-545. Note that a retracement of the OEX's rally might pull back 50%, if it does so in a measured accumulation form such as a flag, and still be considered bullish action, so that it's possible that the OEX could pull back all the way to 545.56, the 50% retracement, and still be within the potential bull flag that it may be forming.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  12:51:16 PM
QCOM is looking strong here hitting new five-week highs with a 3.6% rally.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  12:49:57 PM
Silver continues its blast higher, now up 4.5% to 8.128. Gold is up .9% at 457.5, HUI +.71% at 238.62.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  12:49:12 PM
Dow-component IBM is bouncing from the bottom of its three-week trading range. Shares are up 1.74% but bulls need to see it break through the $96.65 level.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  12:45:31 PM
It's interesting to see how EBAY is really not participating in this rally. EBAY is up 42 cents to $112.75.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  12:44:09 PM
Symantec (SYMC) is up another 4.4% following today's 2:1 stock split.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  12:42:27 PM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 46.675, -5%.

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  12:42:25 PM
Wendy's Intl Inc (WEN) is very bullish today with a 6.6% gain as it gaps above resistance in its six-month trendline of lower highs and its 200-dma. Investors are responding to yesterday's earnings guidance and an upgrade from Bear Stearns from "under perform" to "peer perform".

 
 
  James Brown   12/1/200,  12:39:20 PM
Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) is up 5.18% and breaking out over significant resistance at the $40.00 level. Volume is above average and the P&F chart points to a $72 target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  12:32:40 PM
Here's the formation I'm watching on the OEX's three-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  12:30:50 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.22 +1.57% .... analyst meeting happening now Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  12:26:11 PM
While I was uploading that last post, the OEX moved to a new high. That might have effectively negated the H&S, except that the OEX was immediately slapped back to the appropriate right-shoulder level, leaving only a three-minute candle shadow above the appropriate right-shoulder level. The negligible candle body still formed at that appropriate right-shoulder level. This felt a little like an attempt to abort the formation and run stops. Watch to see if the OEX can climb again or if it drops below the neckline level at about 563.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  12:25:15 PM
Silver's breaking its session high, now +3.47% at 8.048.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  12:22:07 PM
Session highs across the board here, QQQ at 39.86.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  12:21:34 PM
The possibility of a small (three-minute chart) H&S at the top of the OEX's rise still remains. A worse-case possibility for the bulls would be that the OEX fails to even form a right shoulder and just drops straight to the 562.50-ish downside target that would be suggested if the formation were to finish forming and then confirm. Unfortunately for bears seeking a new entry, TRIN still doesn't support a bearish conclusion and the advdec line still flattens rather than declines. That's not enough evidence to come to a conclusion that the OEX is going to roll down again without more to go on.

I'm still concerned about the failure of 60-minute RSI and MACD to confirm or, in the case of RSI, even precede the 60-minute breakout above the trendline off the 11/17 high. RSI did finally break through, after the OEX broke through its trendline, but almost immediately slightly flattened. This just isn't the way the RSI usually behaves, so it worries me even though the price action looks fine. The MACD histogram has turned positive, even if the lines have not cleanly broken through their analogous descending trendline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  12:11:20 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  12:10:47 PM
Session high for Feb. gold here at 456.60, +3.20 with silver holding at 8.002. QQQ has continued to slide below 39.82, now testing 39.72 from above. The 30 min channel upphase has stalled, and 10 minutes below 39.68 should be enough to roll it over. 30 min channel support is at 39.58 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  12:05:07 PM
The OEX continues to have trouble moving past the 11/29 high of 564.60 and the 11/26 high of 564.50, but bulls who jumped in early this morning have much to celebrate. There's now potential for a small H&S on the three-minute chart, however, with a right shoulder still to be formed. Sometimes these bearish formations partially set up during a strong climb only to be negated, but it's time to start looking at Fib targets in case the OEX does form some sort of measured distribution pattern and retrace or even keel over, which still seems unlikely with the TRIN where it is. A 19.1% retracement of the day's range lies just below 563.20 and a 38.2% retracement is just above 561.80. Bulls want a shallower retracement, of course, and they want to see any retracement take the form of some kind of measured accumulation pattern and not a zoom down. Although the OEX has broken above the descending trendline off the 11/17 high, that long upper shadow from 11/17 distorts things somewhat, in my opinion. A best-fit descending trendline has also been pierced today, but the OEX has already drawn back below that trendline. Bulls, protect those profits.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  12:02:30 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:57:42 AM
January Crude (cl05f) $47.50 -3.31% (30-min delayed) ... This would be good enough for a double bottom sell signal at $47.75 on the conventional $0.25 box chart of $WTIC Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:55:19 AM
The bears are pushing back at the 30 min channel resistance line, with a high of 39.83. 30 min channel resistance is up to 39.85.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:54:43 AM
Russell 2000 Growth ishares (IWO) $66.33 +1.73% (Seasonal chart) Link .... I've profiled two (2) calls in the IWO as a "full position" for our MM account.

However.... if I (Jeff Bailey) were a trader/investor with 5, 10, or more, I'd think seriously about writing a covered call at the Dec. $67 strike on a portion. They're bid $0.70.

Add $0.70 to $67, you get $67.70, which would be your historical percentage gain of $67.74 from our retracement technique.

We could exceed, maybe not meet, the historical average seasonal gain.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  11:53:18 AM
Bearish divergence shows up on the last swing high of the OEX on the three-minute chart. In a strongly trending entity, this can signal a need for consolidation only. That three-minute chart shows potential support near 563.50-563.75 in the event of a pullback.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:48:24 AM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 113.00 +3.61% Link .... back above its 200-day SMA (107.75) looks set to challenge October highs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:45:34 AM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 47.20. Bouncing to 47.30 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  11:43:33 AM
The SOX now approaches its 200-sma at 438.23, with the SOX at 436.80 as I type. I would have bet that it was going to be driven up toward a test of that average. This morning, the SOX did reach the Keltner target that I mentioned in an earlier post, consolidated, and then shot higher again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:41:50 AM
Nextel (NXTL) $29.24 +2.7% Link ... challenges its January high.

Trade at $30 good for at least 1/2 bullish I would think. Supply should be limited.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  11:41:14 AM
The OEX again approaches upper Keltner resistance on the seven-minute chart, with that resistance at 564.59, but now rising.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:40:54 AM
QQQQ testing 30 min channel resistance now. This is where the bulls and bears should lock horns.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:38:08 AM
SNDK April $22.50 call (SWQ-DX) alert Nobody looks to have gotten filled at $3.20, lets go higher at $3.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:33:31 AM
Jane, I have to stop myself from typing "QQQQQQQQQ" every time :)

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/1/200,  11:32:55 AM
Jonathan so far you have been a great job of typing QQQQ instead of QQQ but what a pain having to add that extra Q.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:32:32 AM
QQQQ is at a new high of 39.74. 30 min channel resistance is holding at 39.80, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:31:02 AM
First support is QQQQ 39.60-.62, followed by 39.48-.50, then 39.34.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:23:48 AM
QQQQ is retesting the session high at 39.72 here. 30 min channel resistance has made it to 39.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  11:23:40 AM
So far, OEX bulls have had their fondest wishes met, with the OEX again consolidating sideways and staying above 563. On the 60-minute chart, neither MACD (slower moving) nor RSI (usually leading) has broken convincingly through their respective descending trendlines, however, so that they still have not offered corroboration of the OEX's break through its descending trendline off the 11/17 high. While the slower-moving MACD's failure doesn't bother me--I'm giving it time--the RSI's failure does since it usually leads, not follows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:20:18 AM
Nymex crude is down 3.05% at 47.625 currently, a new session low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:14:30 AM
Equities are the clear beneficiaries of today's strength, with QQQQ up 1.43% compared with tthe .24% gain in gold and .35% gain in the HUI. Currencies are only fractionally green against the USD, while silver is up 2.03%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  11:12:52 AM
As might have been guessed, the TRAN broke out to the upside this morning. It's now broken out even on a weekly Keltner chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:10:16 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  11:08:59 AM
Another flat declining consolidation for QQQQ, and it looks bullish above 39.58-.62 support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  11:03:35 AM
While the OEX did not gap lower on the next seven-minute candle (after printing a gravestone doji that touched Keltner resistance), it did print a red candle for that next seven-minue candle. That's not a perfect evening-star formation, but it perhaps does suggest a need to pull back or consolidate sideways. Bulls don't want to see it pull back below 563, back below the descending trendline off the 11/17 high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:03:29 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/1/200,  11:01:00 AM
Took profits on MUR at $85.(see attached chart). Back on 11/11/04 2:29 MM post I pointed out that MUR was a buy. With today's oil news I took 1/2 off the table and set a stop at $83.5 for the other 1/2. The WTIC appears to be tracing the H&S pattern I projected on 11/16/04 3:58pm on MM. Link Link Link

Link to EIA: Link

On INTC that appears to be waiting for the mid-quarter report. I recently took some profits on the SMH via the Profund SMPIX, would add on any pullback to the lower end of the ascending channel. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:58:41 AM
Apache Corp. (APA) $52.81 -2.31% ... on those energy inventory reports.

The APA Jan. $50 calls (APA-AJ) bid $3.80. Profiled stop is break-even at $3.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:52:46 AM
The OEX tagged the upside target suggested by the seven-minute Keltner charts--Keltner charts prevail again. However, the OEX gapped up to tag that upside target and now may be printing a doji above the other candles. There's potential for a classic form of an evening-star pattern. Bullish traders don't want to see the OEX gap down to 563.72 at the open of the next seven-minute candle.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:47:41 AM
As the OEX tests the descending trendline off the 11/17 high, MACD also tests the descending trendline that's been building since earlier in November. RSI is testing a descending trendline, too. Under normal circumstances, RSI would be the first to break to the upside or roll down again, but while price may be breaking above its descending trendline, RSI is not yet doing so, not leading as it often does. That worries me a bit on behalf of bullish plays, but I'll keep watching. RSI is still attempting that breakout.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  10:44:05 AM
The rising 30 min channel has made it to 39.67 QQQQ, with the short cycle oscillators trending in overbought territory. I haven't racked up enough data to generate 60 min cycle channels, but it should be any minute now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:42:11 AM
Swing trade 1/2 call position alert for two (2) of the SanDisk $22.98 +1.81% Link SNDK April $22.50 calls (SWQ-DX) at the offer of $3.20.

Target a bounce back toward $30.00.

Note: SNDK is a component of the Semi Holdrs (SMH)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:40:57 AM
Despite the upside target predicted by Keltner channels, OEX bulls should remember that descending trendline off the 11/17 high that I mentioned earlier, with the OEX currently approaching/touching that trendline at about 563.15-563.20. If the OEX is going to continue within the descending regression channel within which it's traded since 11/17, it should be turning back soon. A breakout above that channel suggests that it could have been a bull flag, but since the OEX would not yet have negated the H&S on its 60-minute chart, the evidence is mixed. It's a valid place from which to base a bullish entry, however, if you're so inclined, but I'd be ready to jump out again if that OEX heads lower. It's also a valid place from which to expect a rollover into a new bearish entry, except that the TRIN's level does not support such a possibility yet, even though TRIN is climbing off its low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:37:46 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,184.58, OEX 563.14, QQQQ $39.61, BIX.X 374.37, SOX.X 432.63

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:36:51 AM
Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $66.06 +1.31% Link .... "X" gets the square at $66.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/1/200,  10:36:25 AM
test

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/1/200,  10:30:12 AM
Oil and Gas Inventories = oil +900,000 bbls, Gas +3.0 MB, Dist +2.3 MB , (last 292.4MB)

API numbers +1.3MB crude, dist +1.4MB, gas +500,000 bbls

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:28:07 AM
Western Digital (WDC) $10.22 +4.6% .... big break of neckline on reverse head/shoulder pattern Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  10:27:28 AM
Session low for ten year notes, TNX up .7 bps at 4.365%, session high for QQQ at 39.52. The 30 min channel resistance has finally calculated on my charts, up at 39.60 as the short cycle channel whipsaws to the upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:26:37 AM
The OEX sets a potential upside target of 564.09.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:26:32 AM
Buy Program Premium ... comes just as SOX.X trades WEEKLY Pivot. Got both al_rts at the same second.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  10:25:44 AM
Silver is spiking, up .211 or 2.71% to 7.989, a session high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:25:02 AM
So far, the OEX has opted for sideways consolidation, which should be cheering to new bulls, except that their expensive-first-thing-in-the-morning calls are probably leaking premium. Bulls want to see continued sideways consolidation instead of a pullback, and want a new breakout above 562 to set up a potential upside target of 564. Keltner channels have not shown that to be a potential target as yet because there's been no upside breakout above the needed Keltner lines. Unfortunately for want-to-be bears, TRIN sure isn't supporting a decision to hop on this test of 562 with a bearish play, either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  10:24:41 AM
The drop in QQQQ ddin't make it to 39.32, bouncing from 39.35. Nevertheless, it was sharp enough to turn the short cycle channel down, lowering channel resistance to 39.47 and providing a short cycle negative bias below that 39.47 level. Euros and CAD futures are spiking up, and so it looks like more weakness for the dollar. As discussed in last night's Futures Wrap, the weak dollar has been bullish for equities, and until it reverses, that should provide a general upside intermarket bias for equities.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:20:03 AM
Reader Question Regarding TASR: Where is this one going? Looking for resistance.

Response: Let me preface any comments I make about TASR with these disclaimers. First, I believe that TASR often trades based on emotion (of scared shorts, perhaps?) as much as it does technicals, and I've freely admitted in the past that it scares me for that reason. When I look at the daily chart, I see a chart that looks like that of an ADR, gapping up and down, so that it's difficult to pinpoint where that support or resistance might lie. Second, because of the first disclaimer, I don't often follow it the way that Jeff does, and so my opinion may not be the best to seek. Third, any tendency of TASR to trade based on emotion has been exacerbated by the recent split.

As Jeff would probably advise, I started with the P&F chart. It's on a sell signal now, with a downside objective of $17.00. A trade at $31.00 will create a new buy signal, but for now, that sell signal remains. Here's what I see on the daily chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:17:55 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:10:09 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:07:10 AM
Upper shadows appearing on the OEX's seven-minute candles. The OEX may need a period of sideways consolidation or even a pullback, with the nature of that consolidation or pullback telling us much about the strength of this spike higher. Bulls would prefer the sideways consolidation, of course, hopefully above 561-561.50, but would be satisfied by a pullback that stopped at 560.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  10:04:43 AM
QQQQ has short cycle channel resistance at 39.52, support at 39.40. A move below 39.42 should turn the channel down, targeting 39.32 support from earlier this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:03:27 AM
The OEX has moved back into the right-shoulder level for its H&S on its 60-minute chart, but hasn't broken above that right shoulder level. At about 563.40, it will face the descending trendline off the 11/17 high--the head of the potential inverse H&S. Those who might have entered bullish positions this morning should consider profit-protecting measures from 562-562.50 and then again at that descending trendline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:03:11 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  10:02:04 AM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,181.98, OEX 561.86, QQQQ $39.48, BIX.X 373.52

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  10:00:39 AM
Headlines:

10:00am U.S. SEPT. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS REVISED TO 0.1% VS. 0%

10:00am U.S. OCT. PUBLIC-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 1.2%

10:00am U.S. OCT. PRIVATE-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS DOWN 0.3%

10:00am U.S. OCT. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS DOWN 0.3%

10:00am U.S. OCT. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING FLAT VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

10:00am U.S. NOV. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 57.8% VS 56.8% IN OCT

10:02am U.S. NOV. ISM NEW ORDERS 61.5% VS 58.3% IN OCT.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/1/200,  10:00:17 AM
ISM Index = 57.8, prices paid 74.0, (est 57.0, last 56.8)

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/1/200,  10:00:13 AM
Construction Spending = +0.0% , (est +0.5%, last -0.2%)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  9:59:43 AM
Session highs printing ahead of the data due now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:59:39 AM
The OEX has climbed above its five-minute 100/130-ema's for the first time since late Monday, and it's also approaching the resistance the OEX found late Monday, too, in that 562-562.50 S/R zone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:52:32 AM
VIX.X 12.97 -2.03% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.92, 13.09, Piv= 13.23, 13.40, 13.54.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  9:52:15 AM
A 3B overnight repo has been announced, resulting in the Fed being net flat against the 3B 2-day repo expiring today. That brings the total for tomorrow's expiries up to 16.75B.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  9:50:13 AM
10 minutes until the ISM and construction spending data.

 
 
  Mark Davis   12/1/200,  9:49:38 AM
Somebody is betting pretty heavily the numbers will be good Linda (per your 9:46 post)... unusual confidence before an important economic number.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:48:59 AM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,182.39, OEX 561.63, QQQQ $39.46, BIX.X 374.13

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:48:54 AM
Heading into crude inventory numbers later this morning, crude is at 48.88, down 0.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:47:32 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,181.29, OEX 561.08, QQQQ $39.46, BIX.X 373.67

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  9:47:13 AM
The USD is back in the red against the CAD and Euro, with gold firm and HUI and XAU rising. Bonds remain firm, TNX down 2 bps at 4.338%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:46:40 AM
Remember that we have other economic releases in about 14 minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:45:28 AM
I'm not a big fan of trading inside-day patterns since I've seen too many apparent breakouts quickly reversed, but the GHA has broken above yesterday's (and the day before's) range after yesterday's candle was an inside-day candle. That suggests more upside in this sector that has been a star performer for the NDX. It just keeps going, doesn't it? Keep watching for a potential reversal or more gains since Tab G. has convinced me that this index has been helping to hold up the tech indices and should be watched carefully.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:41:34 AM
The OEX is initiating an upside breakout signal on its five-minute chart, suggesting a climb toward 432-433, and possibly a quick one (happening as I type). I'm not accustomed to watching the SOX on Keltner charts, so am not sure how trustworthy these breakouts are in the first few minutes of trading. I do note that in order to maintain this breakout status, the SOX needs to maintain five-minute closes above the Keltner lines currently stretching from 427.58-428.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:40:28 AM
BIX.X 373.11 +0.32% ... back above WEEKLY Pivot, DAILY R1 here

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:39:56 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,179.47, OEX 560.24, QQQQ $39.42.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:39:09 AM
Updated for yesterday's trade is the Continuous Oil ($WTIC) chart at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:38:56 AM
In addition to the potential resistance offered by its five-minute 100/130-ema's, the OEX faces central Keltner resistance at about 559.90-560.00. Next resistance after that is at about 560.90-561.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  9:36:43 AM
Session high for gold here at 455.10, up 1.70, with HUI and XAU up fractionally. QQQQ is at a session high as well, +.22 at 39.34. I have no channel bands or targets for QQQQ as Quotetracker is treating it as a new symbol and cannot backfill with the old data.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:34:21 AM
The OEX has risen right to the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 559.48 and 559.71, respectively. All day yesterday, the OEX tracked these averages, never getting far below them, but not able to maintain levels above them, either.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:32:49 AM
The SOX gapped up just above the 200-ema and climbs slightly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  9:28:14 AM
OmniVision Tech (OVTI) $17.72 ... jumps to $19.90. Late yesterday the chip image sensor maker said quarterly earnings rose to $17.8 million, or 28 cents a share, from $13.8 million, or 23 cents a share, last year. Revenue for the period rose 8 percent to $84.4 million from $78 million.

Analysts had estimated the company would earn 24 cents per share on revenue of $85.5 million.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:26:57 AM
Remember when making decisions about trading this morning that we have October's Construction Spending and November's ISM Index to be released at 10:00, along with the usual mid-morning release of crude inventories information.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:17:26 AM
Futures are higher this morning. Here's a chart I posted last night showing what I'll be watching on the OEX today, for signs of confirmation or rejection of this formation: Link With crude down this morning, equities appear prepared to ignore headlines such as "British Pound Advances to Twelve-Year High Against the Dollar," but I won't be ignoring them with a potential H&S complete with bearish divergence as the head was formed on the 60-minute chart. While I grant that the OEX could well reject this formation and while I understand that money from MSFT is going to flood the markets, I just can't bring myself to suggest plays that seem so counter to what's appearing on the charts. I will, however, of course report on what I see developing, both bullish and bearish, and let you make your own decisions.

Those who trade semi-related stocks and do not read my early-morning posts on the Asian and European markets should note that Merrill Lynch warned that analysts might be too optimistic about Intel's earnings ahead of its mid-quarter report tomorrow. In addition, the U.S. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International reported its expectation that demand for chip manufacturing equipment would rise 59% this year but then perhaps fall as much as 5.1% next year. European chip-related companies Infineon Technologies and STMicroelectronics received downgrades. Merrill Lynch downgraded Infineon Technologies to a sell rating from its previous neutral rating. The firm cited specific problems within Infineon as well as industry pricing and inventory surplus problems. Deutsche Bank downgraded STMicroelectronics to a hold rating from the previous buy rating.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  9:12:52 AM
Yes, Linda. The news was more dramatic last week, I think, because interest rates had declined along with mortgage activity, which theoretically shouldn't occur. They're blaming this week's drop on the holiday week, except that the data's seasonally adjusted.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  9:09:17 AM
Jonathan, I was just reading those MBA figures, too, doing research for the Wrap tonight. Embedded in the report I found mention of a notable downtrend in the proportion of FHA loans this year to total loans. Aren't FHA loans often sought by first-time buyers? Is this a sign that this segment of buyers might be dropping significantly, a possible sign of trouble for the home builders?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  8:58:32 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Index dropped 5.8% last week, Refi Index fell 12.3% and the Purchase Index fell .6%. These are seasonally adjusted figures.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  8:37:59 AM
GeoPharma (GORX) $4.43 .... surging to $9.80.... FDA approved its drug to treat mucositis, an inflammation in the mouth that may be caused by radiation and chemotherapy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  8:36:04 AM
Bonds remain in positive territory, with TNX down .9 bps at 4.349%, while QQQQ is up .16 at 39.28.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  8:33:14 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. OCT. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.6%

8:30am U.S. OCT. SPENDING UP 0.7%

8:30am U.S. OCT. SAVINGS RATE 0.2%; LOWEST SINCE OCT 2001

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/1/200,  8:09:03 AM
Equities are higher across the board, ES 1177, NQ 1579.5, ES 10467 and QQQQ +.11 at 39.23. Gold is down .20 at 453.20, silver flat at 7.77, ten year notes up .171 at 111.625 and Nymex crude down .25 at 48.875.

We have a full slate of data due today. At 8:30, Personal income and personal spending for Oct., est. .5% and .4% respectively. At 10AM, the ISM for November, est. 57, construction spending for October, est. .7%, and at 2PM, the Beige Book.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  6:54:42 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei declined last night and many other Asian bourses did, too. They were reacting to yesterday's lowered expectations for 2005's economic growth for the U.S., Japan and eurozone by OECD, a Merrill Lynch statement warning about undue optimism about Intel's earnings, and the U.S. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International's prognosis about demand for chip manufacturing equipment for next year. Despite that Merrill Lynch Intel-related warning and a couple of broker downgrades of European chip-related companies, most European markets move higher. Our futures have mostly stayed steady with some volatility near the time of the European open. As of 6:45 EST, gold was down $0.40 and crude, down $0.25. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Reportedly reacting to disappointment over the U.S. consumer confidence number, the Nikkei gave up the quest to achieve and maintain levels above 10,900 on Wednesday morning, gapping lower by more than 100 points at the open. It closed near the top of its day's range, still down 115.00 points or 1.06%, at 10,784.25. Exporters fell. Techs also reacted to a Merrill Lynch warning that analysts might be too optimistic about Intel's earnings ahead of its mid-quarter report on Thursday and from a report by the U.S. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International. That organization reported its expectation that demand for chip manufacturing equipment would rise 59% this year but then perhaps fall as much as 5.1% next year. Wednesday was also the Nikkei's first opportunity to react to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's revised-lower forecasts for 2005's economic growth for the U.S., eurozone, and Japan due to higher crude prices. Banking issues rose, however.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, with more declining than gaining. The Taiwan Weighted fell 0.79%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.14%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.55%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.73%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.43%.

Almost all European markets climb, although a European chip-related company also received a Merrill Lynch downgrade. The firm downgraded Infineon Technologies to a sell rating from its previous neutral rating. The firm cited specific problems within Infineon as well as industry pricing and inventory surplus problems. STMicroelectronics also received a downgrade, this one to a hold rating from the previous buy rating, and by Deutsche Bank. The firm upgraded Philips Electronics to a buy rating. Deutsche Bank mentioned the declining dollar's impact when downgrading STM. The two downgrades pressure chip-related issues. In the U.K., pharmaceutical stocks gain. Mortgage bank Bradford & Bingley reported earnings, including its prediction of consolidation and reduced transaction volumes and lower inflation of housing costs in the overheated U.K. housing market.

As of 6:45 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 23.80 points or 0.51%, to 4,727.00. The CAC 40 had climbed 19.54 points or 0.52%, to 3,773.29. The DAX had risen 16.33 points or 0.40%, to 4,142.33.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:30:18 AM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) ... Analyst Meeting tomorrow. Scheduled to start at 12:00 PM EST. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:30:11 AM
NYSE NH/NL chart at this Link

"f" is the f-ive day NH/NL ratio, while the X's and O's are the 10-day NH/NL ratio.

NASDAQ NH/NL chart at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/30/20,  12:30:04 AM
Here's what I'll be watching tomorrow morning, a H&S as seen on the OEX's 60-minute chart, for signs of confirmation or rejection: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/30/20,  12:29:56 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Note: NEW MONTHLY Pivot levels.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/30/20,  12:29:47 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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