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  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  6:23:37 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

Look at that volume on the NASDAQ. MSFT dividend?

I don't usually follow up/down volume, but I see up volume 715 versus down of 1,025 on the NYSE. Meanwhile up volume of 1,441 versus 970 on the NASDAQ.

Again... a lot more "energy" stocks listed on the NYSE, but certaintly suggests some distribution in that area, and rotation to some 4 and 5-lettered stocks.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  6:05:35 PM
Final evening updates .... INTC $24.49, SMH $34.86, SNDK $24.70 and QQQQ $40.51

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  6:02:34 PM
Lynne .... What's that saying... "Behind every good man is a good woman?"

Maybe it should be .... "In front of every good man is a good woman!"

In my case, at least for now, Drake the dog is my support and advice giver. He's a very good listener too. I've got a picture of Drake hard at work and screening stocks for me. When I find it, I'll post it.

  Mark Davis   12/2/200,  5:56:56 PM
BTW Jeff... top of my list for "who is the one person you'd like to have dinner with" would be Mira Sorvino (nothing to do with investing!)

  Mark Davis   12/2/200,  5:45:31 PM
Jeff it isn't his message that rubs my fur the wrong way... it's his DELIVERY! If I were to have dinner with him I would wear a bib... not for me, but for protection against the projectile food particles coming from his side of the table as he talked and ate at the same time. The guy is a walking/talking "too much Starbucks" commercial. Maybe I'm being too hard on him... here's an email just received from one of my favorite readers (Lynne)
You guys haven't read Cramer's book. His wife, is the BOSS! He calls her the Trading Goddess, and she is responsible for saving his hedge fund when Elliot Spitzer started a stampede on it. She has no problems making herself heard!
Actually I have read about that Lynne and it is probably true... just hard to imagine. I think about 10 minutes with Cramer would have me ready to scream "Can we all just get along?" I enjoy the company of people who are a bit more laid back. Maybe he is a different person in private (but I doubt it)... lol

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  5:34:29 PM
Intel (INTC) calming down now at $24.40, juuuust below the WEEKLY R2.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  5:31:00 PM
Mark .... James Cramer would be on the top of my list for one of those "who is the one person you'd like to have dinner with." At times, I've disagreed strongly with stuff he has said/thought, and at other times, I'd think we had ESP.

Today, I caught Cramer saying some of the same things I've been thinking in regards to MMM being a "dollar stock." Now if the MARKET will agree, then I'll be a much more happy camper.

But yes Mark. I'm very happy I'm not James Cramer's wife. I'm sure the feeling is mutual!

  Subscriptions   12/2/200,  5:26:15 PM
Jeff: I agree 1000% about Cramer.... His personality is fantastic for biz tv. After 20 yrs running retail money, I have recently launched a long short hedge fund and I really enjoy option and premier investor and the mkt monitor. Keep up the great work! - Ralph in Chicago

  Mark Davis   12/2/200,  5:24:39 PM
Just be happy you're not his wife Jeff (can you imagine trying to have a "discussion" with him?) lol...

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  5:20:36 PM
James Cramer .... cracks me up. You can tell this guy was a hedge fund manager. Calling those "gold bugs" out on the carpet.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:50:06 PM
QQQQ remember $40.11. Seeing what is most likely an accumulated order of 2,000,000 shares blocked at this price.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:38:50 PM
Intel $24.36 .... said gross margins would range between 55% and 57% in December quarter. Commented that a new tax law allowing U.S. companies to repatriate overseas profits at a temporarily low rate of 5.25%, rather than reinvest them overseas, may add up to $6 billion of earnings.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:30:51 PM
Intel $24.41 , SMH $34.70

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:26:14 PM
Intel (INTC) $24.65 ...

WEEKLY Pivot levels ... 22.54, $22.90, Piv= $23.51 , 23.87, $24.48

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:22:31 PM
QQQQ $40.07 +0.37% .... $40.43 here.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:21:34 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $23.92 +2.83% .... $24.40 here.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:21:07 PM
Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $33.50 -0.68% .... $34.53 here.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:20:33 PM
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $22.71 -1.68% ... $23.90 on headline.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:19:07 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

I did raise a profit stop in the SIRI Mar. $5 Calls (QXO-CA) to $1.90.

Swing trade put one (1) CME Jan. $200 put (CMJ-MT). I am showing entry for this option at the high of the day (just after profile) of $8.70. I really don't want to be short/put this stock if it trades a new high. Or any stock for that matter.

  Jim Brown   12/2/200,  4:15:21 PM
Alert - Intel Update = $9.3-$9.5B and above the prior range,
Old estimates = earnings +0.28, $8.9B rev (guided to $8.6-$9.2B on Oct 12th)

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  4:02:34 PM
Buy Program Premium .... DIA $105.87 , SPY $119.48, QQQQ $40.09

  Jim Brown   12/2/200,  4:02:29 PM
Intel Update coming at 4:45
Current est +0.28, $8.9B rev (guided to $8.6-$9.2B on Oct 12th)

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  3:58:29 PM
Earlier, I had wondered whether it was likely that the OEX would be parked at the five-minute 100/130-ema's at the close, and that's exactly what's happening. Two bearish H&S's on the five-minute chart (one a right shoulder for the bigger one), both with necklines at those averages, neither confirmed. How's that for ambiguity?

  Jim Brown   12/2/200,  3:51:41 PM
NVR finally found some resistance at $700. This is often quoted as the favorite homebuilder stock for institutions. Unfortunately it does not have options.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  3:49:10 PM
The OEX is still above the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 566.05 and 565.61, respectively. There's still a potential small H&S just above the 100-ema, but from here on out, I believe it's a trade-on-emotions trading environment rather than a go-by-the-technicals one. Unless something drastic happens either direction, I'll consider the rest of the action a throw-away, something to be discredited until we see what this afternoon and tomorrow morning brings.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  3:48:35 PM
Yuck! .... the CME $209.50 woke up as SIVB hit that high didn't it?

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  3:41:03 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $43.00 +1.05% ... new 52-weeker.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  3:37:31 PM
The failure below 40.17 QQQQ is now confirming a lower high, and the 30 minute cycle downphase is trying to regain its footing. Without any increase in volume, however, the test of 39.90 continues to look like important confirmation to me, to rule out another drift higher into the 40.12-.20 range.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  3:33:05 PM
Although the TRAN today was within striking distance of the May 1999 high of 3797.05, it has not reached it yet, with a 3748.05 high of the day. ATR (average true range) for the TRAN is currently 45.67 and yesterday's close was 3737.91, so I thought there might be a possibility that the TRAN might stretch an extra nine points above its ATR and tag that previous high before dropping back. Whether it did or not, I think the TRAN's current high level is one in which resistance might be found at any time, at least on a short-term basis and at least long enough to pull back into a bull flag or other type of consolidation pattern. I've been saying that for about the last two hundred TRAN points, though.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  3:21:07 PM
I decided to do some scouting around for what might be producing these bounces every time the OEX hits the neckline for that H&S, and I knew right where to look: Link For days, the OEX did not move far from these five-minute 100/130-ema's, but then yesterday's bounce finally moved it away from these averages. Now, it's bouncing every time it tests them, but see the small H&S it might be forming just above them now, with that H&S formation being a right shoulder for the larger one we've been watching? We can use these averages as benchmarks.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  3:17:45 PM
The decline from the high has been as hesitant and ambiguous as this morning's rise was explosive. This suggests corrective action in the 30 min cycle, which suggest that the next upphase will be another doozy. Bears need to get QQQ below 39.90 to avoid an early start to that upphase.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  3:14:41 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  3:14:28 PM
Looks as if the OEX is again attempting to reject that H&S. It's soon facing Keltner resistance in the 566.60-566.80 range.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  3:10:46 PM
Well, the upside didn't last long, either. The OEX still turns over into what may be a right shoulder for a H&S.

As I typed, the OEX gapped below the neckline, or one version anyway, for the H&S. It's coming right back up to retest it, but if it can't maintain levels above that neckline, that sets up a potential four-point downside target.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  3:06:40 PM
Computer Tech Index (XCI.X) after declining from 726 to 717, 720.10 for last 45 minutes.

Like two tennis players coming to the net.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  3:04:27 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  3:01:22 PM
I agree with Keene's assessment about not trusting the shape of the current downside move (14:55 post, Futures side). A couple of minutes ago I was thinking it looked a little descending wedge-like. Oops . . . there it goes as I type to the upside.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  2:59:17 PM
Channel support lines up at 39.92 QQQQ, but it will take a break south of 40.12 to setup a retest of 40.00 in the meantime. The current chop between 40.12 and 40.20 has the intraday oscillators perfectly mixed. The intraday bias should be to the downside below 40.20, but it's a very choppy picture overall.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  2:55:26 PM
The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are opposed, with the 30 min channel trying to turn up against the descending 60. Channel resistance is at 40.25 for QQQQ's 30 min channel, 40.33 for the 60 min. Confluence resistance has held at 40.20 so far.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  2:53:00 PM
Updated January Crude (cl05f) (30-min delayed) and a 60-minute interval chart with my conventional and fitted retracement. Link

One reason I showed this chart Tuesday evening, was juuuust in case oil saw a sharp move this week, and exceeded WEEKLY pivot levels. That's when a trader has to turn to his/her retracements for levels.

Note the first hour's close at $43.60. That makes sense doesn't it?

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:47:29 PM
The OEX's H&S remains a possibility although "2003, 2003" keeps echoing in the back of my head. The zoom up scattered Keltner lines so that there's no clear weighting of resistance over support or vice versa just yet.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:37:25 PM
So has the OEX negated its H&S on its five-minute chart? The right shoulder is now definitely larger than the left, but it's far from eclipsing the head. I'd say it's still a possible H&S, although it's a bit more iffy now.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:33:14 PM
The OEX hit Keltner ressitance at 567.45 (three-minute chart). The 15-minute chart suggests that the resistance band stretches up to 567.76.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:29:15 PM
Breakout to the upside out of the Keltner congestion zone as I typed that last report. OEX 567.40-567.80 looks like next resistance on the Keltner charts.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  2:27:44 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

CME .... Weekly pivot levels are ... 190.88, 194.36, Piv= 199.83, 203.30, 208.77.

I'm not certain of how accurate the bid/ask is for the CME options, as it looks like a couple of traders may have gotten filled at $8.70 and $8.60. Sometimes QCharts' bid/ask on less heavily traded options aren't the best.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:25:39 PM
The OEX zooms right up toward the right shoulder area on that potential H&S on its five-minute chart. Some Keltner evidence suggests that if it can maintain values above the line currently at 566.51 on a 15-minute close, it could climb toward 567.60, but there's a lot of time left in this current 15-minute period. The three-minute chart still shows the OEX caught between support and resistance, with both looking equally strong on that three-minute chart.

The action since mid-morning (bearish formations setting up, confirming, and then meeting or exceeding their downside targets) battles with my memories of 2003, when we'd have mornings in which it looked as if a pullback were imminent, only to see markets zoom up again in the afternoon. Morning doji turned into solid white candles springing from support. Tab mentioned confusion over a CNBC discussion, and my memories and chart characteristics battle, confusing me, too. I bet I'm not the only one, and that's why I thought earlier that we might see some sideways consolidation between Keltner support and Keltner resistance. We've had that, and now await the next breakout, either direction.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  2:21:16 PM
QQQQ is back to the declining 7200-tick SMA for the first time since breaking below it at noon today. A print above 40.12 will restore QQQQ to a positive short cycle bias and stall the declining 30 min cycle channel, targeting 40.20 as next resistance.

  Tab Gilles   12/2/200,  2:18:47 PM
Thought... could today's pullback in the INDU be a sign that equity traders believe that the drop on oil has hit support nearterm and will resume upward? Also, there's been talk on CNBC that higher oil prices were actually thought to be deflationary and that lower oil prices would spark inflation. Confused...?

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  2:17:51 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Tab Gilles   12/2/200,  2:17:25 PM
GHA chart and some sector volume leaders: Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:14:38 PM
The OEX gaps down toward the neckline of that H&S I depicted in my 14:06 post, but then bounces from the neckline. No confirmation yet, unless I've drawn my neckline wrong and that gap was a breakaway gap. The fact that it's being filled as I type makes me lean toward it not being a breakaway gap and the neckline being the correct one. Watch now for a negation of the formation by a strong zoom up as relieved bulls realize they're pulling enough strength to negate it, or by a rollover and confirmation.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:09:25 PM
The SOX still holds above its 200-sma.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  2:06:23 PM
Another bearish OEX formation that it may be important to watch: Link This one has a 4-point downside target if confirmed. No guarantee that the formation will confirm or that the target will be met, but we've been seeing some bearish targets met this morning.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  2:05:41 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  1:59:02 PM
Keltner resistance holds on the OEX. Now let's see if support from 565.38-565.72 holds. It looks strong enough to hold.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  1:57:22 PM
The OEX currently faces Keltner resistance on the five- and fifteen-minute charts. If it can get past this, resistance thins a bit overhead, but it's unclear at this time whether resistance or support will hold. Some charts look as if the Keltner lines are trying to encircle the OEX, perhaps while it consolidates sideways a while prior to another breakout. Just guessing, but that's what it looks like now.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  1:56:34 PM
After yesterday's breakout over the 200-dma shares of JetBlue Airways (JBLU) are testing resistance near $26.25 dating back to August.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  1:51:49 PM
The XNG natural gas index (-2.88%) has pulled back to support at the 280 level.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  1:51:11 PM
The Utility index is down four days in a row and testing its 40-dma.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  1:50:14 PM
Meanwhile the OSX oil services index has already broken its 50-dma and is nearing its 100-dma, where the index bounced in early November.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  1:49:36 PM
The OIX oil index is down 2.65% and breaking the 400 level as it tests the rising 50-dma. If the group continues to dip watch for a bounce from the simple 100-dma, which has been strong support in the past.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  1:47:49 PM
The DRG drug index is now up four out of the last five sessions and nearing resistance at the 310 level. Technicals are bullish but the index has struggled at the 310 level all month.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  1:47:15 PM
Big jump in the VXO over the last 20 minutes.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  1:44:46 PM
The 30 min cycle downphase that has brought us the current drop in QQQQ has yet to reach oversold territory, and if this morning's surge represented the terminal blowoff in the 60 min cycle, then we can expect the correction to extend beyond what the 30 min cycle would on its own suggest. QQQQ bears will know it's the real deal if 39.72 breaks- until then, it's safest to treat this pullback as corrective only in terms of both the 60 min and daily cycles.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  1:42:44 PM





  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  1:42:30 PM
HUI continues to find support at 225 confluence, currently down 4.02% at 226.99 after another bounce from that level. For all the bullishness in the dollar, gold futures are down just .66% at 452.80 after drop as far as 448.60 at the low. Silver is down 1.2% at 7.985, holding the bulk of this week's gains.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  1:28:31 PM
QQQ failed at 40.12 and is now retesting 40.00 support. 30.90 is next support, below which 39.72 is the key level from yesterday and this morning. The short cycle oscillators are just entering oversold as the 30 and 60 min cycle channels continue to decline.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  1:27:31 PM
The OEX is finding resistance at the first Keltner level offering resistance, another sign of short-term bearishness. It looks vulnerable now down to 564.50-565.00.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  1:21:23 PM
The advdec line tries to bounce a little, but there hasn't been anything encouraging about its action today. It could be seen as encouraging that indices are holding up as well as they have been, though, with that advdec line looking like it does. This bounce is even looking rather tepid. If volume is leading the markets anywhere, it's not where bulls want to go.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  1:13:48 PM
Great info James at 01:06.... Traders and investors might be able to develop some holiday "themes" as to what is hot and what's not.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  1:13:38 PM
40.10 cracked as I was typing.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  1:13:13 PM
40.10 QQQQ should now act as resistance on this bounce off the current 40.00 short cycle low. A failure targets 7200-SMA resistance 40.20, followed by descending 30 min channel resistance at 40.30.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  1:11:31 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  1:09:45 PM
The OEX slightly exceeded the downside target predicted by the triangle in the chart linked to my 12:31 post. This isn't something that bulls want to see happen, either, as we've now had two formations form and meet or exceed their downside targets rather than rejecting bearish formations before they ever confirmed as had been happening earlier. Now the OEX bounces, but it's doing it now from within that former widening formation from this morning. The top resistance line did not hold as support. Now watch for possible resistance at just over 567, 567.50, but strongest at 567.90-568.00.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  1:06:23 PM
November Same-store sales
BEBE +23.2%
SBUX +13.0%
WAG +11.4%
SKFB +9.8%
PLCE +9.0%
FNIL +8.0%
JOSB +7.5%
STGS +6.0%
BONT +5.4%
FDO +5.2%
DG +3.4%
JWN +3.1%
CHRS +3.0%
CTR +3.0%
CACH +3.0%
CLE +3.0%
S +2.8%
JAS +2.7%
PSUN +2.7%
SKS +2.4%
BWS +2.1%
SMRT +2.0%
ANF +2.0%
TJX +2.0%
BJ +1.8%
YUM +1.0%
WMT +0.7%
GES +0.5%
KSS +0.0%

BKE -0.4%
GYDS -0.6%
FRED -1.0%
DUCK -1.3%
FD -1.4%
SCVL -1.7%
DEBS -1.8%
ROST -2.0%
PSS -2.3%
DDS -3.0%
MIK -3.0%
CBK -3.0%
SHRP -3.0%
WLSN -3.1%
TGT -3.2%
GPS -4.0%
LTD -5.0%
FCPO -5.3%
MAY -7.9%
ANN -8.3%
PIR -9.1%
GYMB -10.0%
MWRK -11.6%
WTSLA -19.5%

  Tab Gilles   12/2/200,  1:03:11 PM
While it is true that oil inventories have been increasing lately, thus putting some downward pressure on prices, EIA still thinks that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is likely to average between $45 and $50 per barrel during the winter period." -EIA


  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  1:00:27 PM
Amazing how gold stocks get hammered on mention of inflation (via CNBC) (I have noted the lag in gold equities vs. gold itself) .... keep an eye on those junk bonds. Especially if "sky is falling" predictions surface.

My opinion of Fed speak today is that they're using the "inflation" word to reaffirm that rates will move higher at a measured pace. Oil's decline should becom "reflationary" and have Fed comfortable with thought of raising rates, so economy doesn't overheat.

  Tab Gilles   12/2/200,  12:59:47 PM
INDU chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  12:57:52 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:56:18 PM
AnnTaylor Stores (ANN) is down 7.5% to a new yearly low after warning that Q4 sales numbers would be under expectations.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  12:55:01 PM
Long-legged doji so far today on the OEX's daily chart. The day is far from over, of course, but looking at nothing other than yesterday's big climb, we might have guessed that today would see consolidation, at least during the morning hours. I remember many a day in 2003 when we had this kind of action in the morning and then a zoom up in the afternoon, though, so I'm not counting anything out for this afternoon. Bulls would prefer not to see a long-legged doji at resistance by the day's end, of course.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:53:20 PM
Best Buy (BBY) issued a warning this morning that revenues would come in under consensus estimates for the quarter.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:51:48 PM
United States Steel (X) is down 7.2% after being downgraded by Prudential. Shares are breaking its sharp six-week up trend.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  12:50:45 PM
Not much has changed since 2000: Last night, a relative who shall remain nameless visited me and mentioned a stock purchase (MGAM) that had gone awry. I took a look at the chart. Really ugly. It's at $13.00 when the purchase had been made at $18.00. Big gaps everywhere, probably due to the low ADV impacting it adversely on news. On-balance volume in the cellar. P&F downside of $5.50. Down from $28.74 in July. This relative had done some research and didn't feel good about the company's outlook, either. When I tried to convince this relative to sell and put the money to use in better stocks, the reply was that the relative would wait until it "came back," to sell, because "it had to bounce sometime." I showed this relative long-term charts of JNPR, BRCM, etc., suggesting that stocks don't "have to come back," to no avail. MGAM may bounce. It's coiling up, but it's got several big gaps to plow through before it gets back to $18.00, and it may well head down instead of up. Don't do what this relative does. Let the dogs go and put your money to work elsewhere.

  Jim Brown   12/2/200,  12:45:08 PM
Speech by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
The Logic of Monetary Policy Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  12:44:15 PM
The R2K futures have just gone red as QQQQ struggles with 40.10 support. This is hardly the type of decline that QQQQ bears needed to see on the failure at 40.40, but a break below 40.00 could bring some much needed acceleration.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:43:03 PM
Semiconductor stock KLIC is up 7.14% and breaking out over the $8.00 level but it's struggling under the 200-dma.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  12:40:55 PM
Bearish swing trade put alert ... buying one (1) CME Jan. $200 Put (CMJ-MT) at the offer of $9.20 (rather wide b/a spread)., Stop at $7.20.

Chicago Merc (CME) $206.80 -0.39% .... initial target $185.

If shorting the underlying, would ONLY go short 1/2 position, with stop at $2.13.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:40:46 PM
Apple Computer (AAPL) has been downgraded to a "hold" by SmithBarney today. Shares are down 2.9% to $65.80. The stock is up more than 100% from when the current rally began back in late August.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  12:39:56 PM
We've now seen two minor OEX breakdowns out of formations this morning: the breakdown out of the tiny H&S on the three-minute chart and now the current breakdown out of the triangle depicted on my 12:31 chart. This shows a bit of a change in trend, even if it's minor, from yesterday and earlier this morning, when all formations were resolved to the upside, whether bearish or bullish formations. I think it's time for bulls to begin looking at Fib levels off this rally beginning yesterday morning and assess their willingness to weather a retracement. Such a retracement, if it occurs, wouldn't be a bearish thing unless it retraces more than 50% of the rally or unless it occurs on a steep fall rather than a measured back-and-forth formation, with that 50% level at about 563.21. I'd give that leeway down to 563 at least, if not 562.50, but that doesn't mean that if you're sitting on profits this morning, you want to risk a fall that far before you even know if a bounce is going to occur. The 19.1% retracement is at 566.75 and the 38.2% retracement at 564.57. There's nothing that says that the OEX has to retrace to any of these levels, but knowing what they are can help those sitting on profits to judge where they want to place their stops.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:37:13 PM
Blockbuster Inc (BBI) is up 3.6% and gapping above resistance at $9.00 and moving past resistance at the bottom of its gap down after receiving an upgrade to Long-term buy this morning. Watch for a move over its 100-dma.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  12:36:43 PM
Computer Tech Index (XCI.X) 720.10 (unch) ... trouble sealing the deal still.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:35:17 PM
Starbucks (SBUX) is hitting new all-time highs at $58 after reporting same-store sales for November up 13%. This figure was almost double what they were expecting. Must be all those pumpkin spice lattes and peppermint mochas they're selling for the holidays.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  12:31:08 PM
Watch for a breakout: Link Target is less than 1.5 points from the breakout level, but it will at least give some guidance as to up vs. down.

Note: Broke to the downside as I typed. Chart does not show the breakdown because it was already uploaded.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  12:26:30 PM
Stepping away for 15 minutes.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  12:19:09 PM
The 30 min delayed USD Index Link shows a sharp retest of Monday's high. This bounce has an impulsive look to it, but the day is only half done. Dollar bulls want to hold these gains and leave a doji hammer on the chart- bears will want at least a partial reversal to reassert 82.00-.10 resistance.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  12:14:55 PM
The OEX is holding above the support offered by the top trendline of the broadening formation it broke through this morning, but it can't make it through the Keltner resistance now gathering overhead. Supporting lines are converging just beneath it, too, tightening. While all this is going on, three-minute MACD turns down, so that we essentially have sideways consolidation while MACD cycles down on that chart. That suggests that the breakout could be to the upside since the downside cycle in the MACD can't get much price traction to the down. There's now a bigger potential H&S (neckline at about 567.60) building on the seven-minute chart that suggests otherwise. The OEX has to break through that top trendline to confirm that H&S, however, and that might be tough to do.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:13:53 PM
IBM is up again and testing the top of its three-week trading range near $96.50-96.65.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:12:38 PM
Fedex (FDX) is picking up again with a 1.4% rally to $97.30 compared to a 0.02% gain for the Transports today. Remember, our target is the $99-100 range. FDX is due to report earnings on Dec. 16th.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  12:10:40 PM
QQQQ dipped for a few minutes below 40.20 on pathetic volume and has just popped back above it. The bulls appear to be in complete control for this decline. However, the intraday 100-tick QQQQ shows a small head and shoulders top above 40.20. If so, the 40.20 break with a rise in volume will have an implied target of 40.00.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:10:28 PM
EBAY is up 2% to $116.09 - another all-time high. Traders seem to be responding to positive comments made at a CSFB conference today.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  12:09:51 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:07:50 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) has filled the gap from November 22nd and testing resistance at the $40 mark.

  James Brown   12/2/200,  12:06:03 PM
Noticing that semiconductor LLTC is up 1.88% and breaking out over major resistance at the $40.00 mark in front of Intel's mid-quarter update tonight.

LLTC's P&F chart has reversed into a new buy signal with a $51 price target.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  12:02:29 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:59:46 AM
Stepping away for 15 minutes.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:54:13 AM
The OEX is attempting a bounce from the top trendline of the broadening formation. Now bulls need to see a new high.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  11:51:09 AM
QQQQ is coming in for a test of 40.20, floating sideways just above the line. A young short cycle downphase has kicked off. The 30 min channel has flattened with support at 40.10.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  11:50:16 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:46:38 AM
The OEX did confirm the small H&S on the three-minute chart--a first bearish sign that we've seen in a long time, even if it's a minor one, and it now heads down toward its target, the top trendline of the broadening formation that it broke through this morning. Bulls would like to see this hold.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  11:45:38 AM
Thanks, Jim.

  Tab Gilles   12/2/200,  11:44:35 AM
I forgot to post yesterday, that I was stopped out of MUR at $83.50 on the remaining 1/2 position that I'd sold earlier that day at $85. Now what to do that MUR is back at that 100-ema??? Link

Oil has been that story this week, however, tonight's news from INTC could very well be decisive on the direction of tech. The SMH/SOX have been a laggards especially behind the GHA and GHO. Could a positive note from INTC be the catalyst to push the COMPQ into a new yearly high? I have a 1/2 position in Profund SMPIX, sold 1/2 in mid November when the SHM hit 34.5.

Last yesterday I mentioned to keep an eye on INDU 10,750 and to be on the watch for any bearish divergences as the indices move higher.

  Jim Brown   12/2/200,  11:43:34 AM
Jonathan, TrimTabs claims 66% of the stock is owned by funds, 14% by insiders. Only $3 billion is owned by index funds. They felt $22-$25 billion would be immediately reinvested in the market before next Friday. Ironically very little is expected to be put back into Microsoft. With the poor performance by MSFT stock and the dull outlook for software sales they felt the majority would go into other tech stocks. Only $9 billion was expected to go to individuals and less than half was expected to hit the market. Gates gets $3 billion and is giving it to charity. Ballmer gets over $1B and he has been quiet on his plans.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  11:36:44 AM
Jim, does MSFT have dividend reinvestment plans? If so, I wonder when that money would be getting ploughed back into the stock.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:36:32 AM
The top trendline of the broadening formation I displayed on several charts this morning is now at about 567.35. That's just below the breakout zone on the three-minute Keltner channels. I see a potential H&S on that three-minute chart, nearly confirmed. If it does confirm, it should send the OEX down to test that trendline. Bulls want that trendline to hold as support now.

  Jim Brown   12/2/200,  11:35:11 AM
MSFT - Two readers in the last ten minutes have told me the dividend has been deposited into their accounts. You have to assume that paying a dividend on 11 billion shares would not occur instantly but if the money is appearing in accounts this early then this afternoon could be exciting. Tomorrow was my best guess for the real impact AFTER Intel and Jobs. Time will tell.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:29:38 AM
The OEX briefly moved above its 11/17 high, but then dropped back again.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  11:28:36 AM
30 min channel support is now lined up with 7200-tick SMA support at 40.10 QQQQ. There's confluence support at 40.20, and below at 40.00, then another 10 cents lower at 39.90. QQQ bears need to see 10 minutes' worth of sub-40.20 prints to suggest the beginning of a new 30 min cycle downphase. Because this cycle is trending, I'd want to see 5 minutes below 40.00 to confirm it.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:25:15 AM
The TRAN has climbed above yesterday's high. For reference, it's only about 50 points away from the 3797.05 high from May 1999, the peak from which the TRAN began descending into its bear-market low, with that descending beginning ahead of some of the other indices. I'm not suggesting that the TRAN is going to begin another bear-market decline, but am suggesting that this is a difficult resistance level that might require at least a pullback into a handle formation for this giant, years-in-the-making cup. The TRAN's approach to this 1999 level is one reason that I'm particularly watchful for a reversal although I guess I should have guessed that the TRAN would at least push for that high once it approached relatively close.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  11:22:09 AM
Crude oil is down 5.93% at 42.80, HUI is down 4.5% at 225.87, silver is down 1.24% and QQQQ is up 1.08%. No sign of weakness for QQQQ, with no intraday bearish divergences in this trending 30 min cycle move.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  11:17:01 AM
An electronic happy holiday? ... RIMM $90.71 +2.04% ... challenges yesterday's highs.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  11:06:56 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:06:30 AM
For reference, the OEX 11/17 high was 568.67, with today's high so far at 568.53. As I mentioned last night and again this morning, I don't consider the breakout confirmed until the OEX breaks above and maintains values above that 11/17 high. Until then, we're in possible double-top territory.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  11:06:27 AM
Gold, silver, euros, CAD and the miners are all getting slammed as equities hold their gains. This strength in equities is a divergence from the binary dollar relationship- the prevailing trend has been for the dollar to move in opposition to metals, currencies and equities.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  11:02:47 AM
3M (MMM) $80.62 +0.24% ... breaks to upside of two consecutive "inside days"

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  11:01:33 AM
The SOX has not yet topped the 445.94 high from 11/18.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:53:22 AM
QQQQ is pulling back from that nose-to-nose session with the upper Keltner bands, but it's going to have to drop quickly below the 40.10 level to avoid the classic flagpole consolidation at the highs. Until the bears actually start selling, every dip will gather strength for the next push higher.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:52:21 AM
A small gap higher on the OEX's last five and fifteen-minute candles. This doesn't appear to be a breakaway gap out of a formation, so be careful about the possibility that it could be an exhaustion gap. (Being filled as I type.) That H&S with a neckline at 563.50 still remains possible--the "head" would just be a whooole lot bigger now. Bulls, you have nothing to do but keep following the OEX higher with your stops, making sure those stops position you so that you're taken out with a profit. Want-to-be-new bulls, you have a problem in this runaway market because it's still not entirely clear whether you'll have a new opportunity or not. Some things are at work globally here, I believe, with not all action visible to us. When currencies move the way they've been moving over the last hour, that's really big money at work. Is this just an oversold bounce in the dollar ahead of a further decline or something else? Whatever it is, I think it's part of what's happening on the bourses today.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:50:42 AM
Back from the dead ... is Emulex (ELX) $15.33 +3.3% and a 200-day SMA upside alert.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:48:59 AM
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $7.70 +10.17% ...

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:47:00 AM
QQQQ is now banging up against rising 30 and 60 min upper channel resistance, and those little red paintballs are printing on the keltner violation. This would be the spot for the bears to push back. If they don't, we should see a meltup commence thereafter as a new trending move erupts. I find that to be an astounding concept given the steepness of the rise that brought us here, but that's precisely the point with trending moves.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:45:11 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $23.90 +2.79% ....

SMH $34.13 +1.21% and DDX.X 117.07 +2.16%

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:44:30 AM
Here's the broadening formation I showed earlier on the OEX and what's happened since the clear breakout: Link The OEX is now hitting upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. That resistance turns up so that the OEX can slip higher without creating a new breakout signal, but it shows that it might be time for sideways consolidation or a small pullback before the next push higher.

Bulls had no decision to make about what would happen if the OEX touched 563.50 and then bounced. Never got near it.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:42:38 AM
I'm hearing word that there's a rumor circulating to the effect that Soros is unwinding his "Beat Bush" position, to justify the drop in oil and rise in the dollar. This is entirely unconfirmed, but an interesting story nonetheless.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:42:06 AM
Corning (GLW) $11.89 -7.39% .... very defensive

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:41:33 AM
Bearish in the energy pits various futures at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:40:37 AM
Lots of currency traders short the dollar are hurting now.

  Jim Brown   12/2/200,  10:39:23 AM
QCharts user unite! In QCharts please click on "HELP", "USER FEEDBACK" and ask them to link the QQQ history with the current QQQQ data. Maybe if we get enough people complaining it won't take them a month to do it.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:39:07 AM




  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:38:34 AM
The dollar has been zooming against other currencies for the last 30 minutes or so, which could also be one reason for the equity breakouts. Although the relationship between the dollar and equities sometimes switches (weak dollar helped in 2003), lately, a strengthening dollar has tended to help equities.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:38:05 AM
Session low for euros, CAD futures, and gold as equities make new highs.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:37:53 AM
Computer Technology Index (XCI.X) alert 722.56 +0.32% ... breaches its 11/17/04 relative high.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:36:57 AM
Apache Corp. (APA) $49.81 -3.95% ... whew!

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:34:56 AM
Upper Keltner resistance on the OEX's 15-minute chart is at 567.84 currently. OEX bulls want to make sure that the OEX stays above that broadening formation's upper trendline. The OEX is currently testing it.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:34:41 AM
Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) 145.65 +2.16% .... lots of action in the Dec. 140 (529:1,461) and 145 (702:1,741) calls this morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:33:09 AM
Nymex crude is down 3.90 here at a new session low of 43.75, following yesterday's 7.5% markdown.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:32:11 AM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 531.06 +1.38% ... nice move back above its rising 21-day SMA. Link

Bullish implications from its MACD

Just as the January Oil futures daily interval chart had bearish implications, BTK.X bullish! That's what a MACD follower will see.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:32:10 AM
The OEX now appears to have broken through the broadening formation to the topside.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:28:49 AM
New high for QQQQ at 40.07, reaching for combined 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 40.12.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:27:50 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $40.02 +2.11% .... right back to Banc of America's downgrade to "sell"

Still off of my "buy" level of $44.00.

Could be seeing some energy profit rotate to the drugs.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:26:08 AM
Everything is coiling. The SOX is, too.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:24:50 AM
Session lows for bonds and gold at 111.0156 (TNX +4.5 bps at 4.42%) and 453.50 respectively. QQQQ continues to respect its 39.90-40.00 range.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:23:01 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:20:44 AM
In the first minute of trading today, the TRAN moved $0.08 higher than yesterday's high, and then immediately moved down (14 points in three minutes) and has been coiling since.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:17:20 AM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) alert 115.82 +1.07% ... breaches early October relative high.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:16:45 AM
I've added the chart of the broadening formation to my 10:13 post. Here it is here, too: Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:15:29 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:13:18 AM
The broadening formation on the OEX's three-minute chart is typically a bearish formation, but the TRIN plummets off its day's high. Mixed evidence. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:12:33 AM
QQQ continues to hover just south of 40.00, with last support asserting itself at 39.90 on the flat 7200-tick SMA support line for QQQQ.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:08:26 AM
The OEX faced the resistance from its broadening formation at the top of its climb, as the configuration of the three-minute Keltner charts and MACD suggested it might, and then headed back down with the resistance essentially holding, as the Keltner charts had also suggested. (See my 9:57 post.) These broadening formations are particularly dangerous, because just when there's a "breakout," and longs (or shorts, in the case of a breakdown) jump in, prices reverse and move to the opposite side of the formation. It's difficult to ascertain exactly when a breakout might have occurred.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:07:06 AM
VIX.X 12.94 -0.15% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.64, 12.79, Piv= 12.91, 13.06, 13.19

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:04:21 AM
Nymex crude has extended its loss, down 2.09% to 44.55.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:03:07 AM
QQQ is back to 40.00 after a shallow dip to 39.95.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  10:02:33 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:01:53 AM



  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  10:01:31 AM
So far, the SOX is holding above its 200-sma.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:01:11 AM
Session low for ten year note futures, TNX up 2.5 and now testing 4.4% resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  10:00:38 AM
30 min channel resistance is currently up to 40.10 QQQQ, while channel support is down to 39.60. Headline now:

10:00am U.S. OCT. FACTORY ORDERS UP 0.5%

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  9:57:43 AM
The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart suggests a possibility that resistance is going to hold near the day's high, but even here there's ambiguity, because three-minute MACD has just made a tentative bullish cross from above signal. The Keltner resistance formation doesn't preclude a spike slightly higher, which would fit with the shape of the broadening formation that's building at the top of the climb, beginning yesterday afternoon, and maybe that's what MACD suggests may happen. So far, as I type, the resistance holds.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  9:54:41 AM
Session high for QQQQ at 40.00, breaking yesterday's high. Factory orders data due in 6 minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:54:41 AM
200-day SMA alert .... Novellus (NVLS) $28.57 +0.7% Link ...

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  9:53:55 AM
The Fed has announced a 6.25B overnight repo, which results in a 5.5B net drain.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:51:48 AM
52-week high alert ... for the CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 206.10 +0.38% Link ...

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  9:51:39 AM
Steep moves down; quick strong bounces: the OEX is still working off some morning volatility.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:50:41 AM
Bullish swing trade raise stop alert .... place a profit stop on the two (2) remaining SIRI Mar. $5 Calls (QXO-CA) at $1.90.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  9:46:04 AM
The OEX now looks vulnerable down to 563.50. There's a quandary for bulls if the OEX should hit that level and bounce from it. When viewing a 60-minute chart, any bounce from above 562.50 looks like a bounce from the former bull flag's former resistance--a decent place for a new long entry. However, when viewing shorter-term charts, say the 15-minute chart, it's clear that a touch of 563.50 and a bounce from there would be a possible bounce into a right shoulder for a H&S formation. This drop has been precipitous--not the kind of drop bulls want to see headed down to a test of a possible H&S (minus one shoulder) neckline. My guesstimate is that this means that bulls and bears still haven't quite sorted things out. I don't know whether that newest 15-minute potential H&S is destined to be confirmed and its downside target met or not, but if it is, then we're looking at a possible dip down to the 561 level. Tough decision, but with the shape of the drop this morning and with the TRIN being higher than it was yesterday, I don't think I'd just automatically hit that buy button on the first test of 563.50 without more evidence that the bounce will be strong. Or that there will be a bounce at all. There are times when automatically hitting that button is the right thing to do, but I'm not sure this is one.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:42:10 AM
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $7.31 +4.72% Link .... achieves the 100% of my 38.2% fitted retracement. (anchor low at Aug, fit to the 10/26/04 close of $4.02)

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  9:41:59 AM
QQQQ has bounced from the 39.72 level but just double topped at 39.95, which is a nominally lower low against yesterday's post-3PM high. Nonetheless, above 39.72, it's just chop- the intraday cycles are too overbought to assume an extended rise from here, but above 39.72 they can't be considered to have rolled over for a reliable downphase.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  9:35:37 AM
The OEX now drops more significantly and the move is a straight down one rather than a measured slow move down. We'll see what happens during the first retracement of the day, but unless that retracement can bring the OEX back above 565.40 and maintain levels above that, it's looking vulnerable down to 563.50 or perhaps even 562.50-563. As I type, the OEX springs straight up, so I don't think the decision has yet been made as to which direction this will go.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:35:01 AM
I need to shut down for a couple of minutes and re-boot.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  9:31:45 AM
The OEX opens near Keltner resistance and dips slightly, but the move is not significant yet.

  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:28:33 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $23.26 ... edging higher at $23.35. Here's a holiday ad Link for products the company is touting.

I'm reviewing Best Buy (BBY) news regarding their same store sales. BBY attributed recent sales growth to increased demand for MP3 players, laptop computers, digital cameras, digital televisions and video games, as well as strong gains in sales of appliances.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  9:26:37 AM
The 30 minute cycles on all of the futures contracts were topped out at yesterday's close, and the downphase is kicking off now. QQQQ needs to get below 39.72 for at least 5 minutes to confirm it.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  9:19:52 AM
Including yesterday's 3B overnight repo, we have 19.75B in various repos expiring today. The Fed has already announced an 8B 14-day repo, leaving an additional 11.75B unaccounted for. The remainder should be announced by 10AM, and I'll post the update as soon as I see it.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  9:14:18 AM
Here's my post from last night for those who didn't have an opportunity to read it, but I have to preface this with some observations: First, I'm a little concerned that the futures could not really build on the strong gains seen in the Nikkei last night. For that matter, I'm a little concerned that the Nikkei could not confirm strength by pushing over 11,000 despite trying most of the trading day. I can't help being a cautious person, and the breakout yesterday in the face of an until-then-well-formed H&S adds to my natural caution. H&S's can be and are rejected, and that looks like what's happening here, but I certainly wish futures had more actively participated in gains made by other bourses. Yesterday, bullish traders had the TRIN and other internal measures on their side, and I'd want to see that occur today, too, ahead of Intel's update. Lots of tech companies are garnering some cautious statements from analysts, including Intel a couple of days ago.

On the other hand, crude is down $0.72 as I type, and that's a positive for those hoping for more equity gains.

Here's the post: The OEX broke above a descending regression channel that had been building since early November--a bull flag. It has not yet broken above the November high, however, and the breakout is tentative until it does. Buying pullbacks to and bounces from 563-563.50 appear to be the best new entries for bullish plays right now. If any pullback looks impulsive rather than corrective, to borrow Keene's terms (and probably to use them incorrectly), then we'll perhaps question the validity of the upside breakout. Until then, we must just assume that it's valid. Be careful ahead of the Intel update tomorrow after the close, however, and decide before you ever enter a play if you intend to exit before the close and under what conditions you would hold overnight, such as needing a certain cushion first.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  9:04:47 AM
QQQQ is getting clotheslined, down to a session low of 39.79, -.13. Silver and gold are rising, gold at 457.40. Euros and CAD futures are rising as well.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  9:00:39 AM
Silver is up another 1.7% at 8.219, a new session high.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  8:50:26 AM
The ECB held rates steady, as had been expected.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  8:38:33 AM
Equities, metals and euro futures have recovered their initial drop following the initial claims, and bonds have flipped back to positive. The initial claims data appears to have been a non-event.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  8:32:47 AM
QQQQ is printing a session low, down 3 cents at 39.89. Ten year bonds are slightly lower, TNX up .7 bps at 4.381%. Gold and silver have also flipped lightly negative, and so it appears that the dollar likes the initial claims data.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  8:30:49 AM


8:29am U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 4,250 TO 336,500


  Jonathan Levinson   12/2/200,  8:05:20 AM
Equities have inched higher, with ES trading 1191, NQ 1607.5, YM 10593 and QQQQ +.01 at 39.93. Gold is up .70 at 456.5, silver +.033 at 8.116, ten year notes up .187 at 1111.1562 and Nymex crude down .70 at 44.80.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 330K, and the 10AM release of October Factory Orders, est. +.2%.

  Linda Piazza   12/2/200,  7:05:37 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei and most other Asian bourses posted gains overnight, as most European bourses are currently doing. The dollar weakened again overnight, but worries related to currency issues were offset by falling crude prices although increasing numbers of overseas companies mention the impact of the weak dollar on their earnings. Although most believe that the ECB's meeting today will not result in a rate change, many want to hear what's said about currency issues in the press conference after that meeting. Our futures have mostly stayed steady in the face of overseas gains and further drops in crude prices. As of 6:46 EST, gold was up $1.00 and crude, down $0.81. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher, climbed for a few minutes, and then oscillated between 10,950 and 11,000 throughout the rest of the day, never quite touching 11,000. It closed up188.82 points or 1.75%, at 10,973.07. The same decline in crude prices that buoyed our markets Wednesday buoyed the Nikkei and most other Asian bourses. Airlines improved across Asia. In Japan, banking issues climbed on continued evidence that they would rid themselves of bad debt on or ahead of schedule. Exporters gained, including Toyota Motor Corporation and LG Electronics. Many car manufacturers gained after Wednesday's report on car and truck sales in the U.S. NTT DoCoMo gained after its president detailed company plans to increase users of its i-mode mobile Internet service by 60 million.

Most other Asian markets climbed, too. The Taiwan Weighted climbed 1.20%. South Korea's trading was positive with LG Electronics and joint venture LG Philips LCD posting gains after LG Philips LCD noted record sales of large thin-film transistor LCD's. Samsung eased after a Deutsche Securities downgrade to a sell rating. The firm mentioned a possible prolonged fall in prices of memory chips, a reason being cited more frequently in downgrades of chip-related stocks. The Kospi gained 0.83%, and Singapore's Straits Times climbed 1.17%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.70%, with China's Shanghai Composite one of the few Asian bourses to post a loss, moving down 0.14%.

European markets also post gains, although some worry exists about the overnight new record high of the euro against the dollar. An ECB rate-hike decision is also due later this morning. The ECB is not expected to change rates, but much attention will be paid to the press conference after the decision since many want to hear what ECB President Trichet has to say about currency issues. Those currency issues were cited this morning when publisher Reed Elsevier's forward guidance disappointed. The company failed to raise guidance as had been hoped, saying the weak dollar would erase earnings.

Worries about currency issues were offset by cheer over falling crude prices. European airlines benefited as had their Asian counterparts. Oil majors declined. Infineon added to losses after it collected another downgrade today, this one by Morgan Stanley to an underweight rating. Morgan Stanley cited the same DRAM oversupply issues that were mentioned in yesterday's downgrade. In more cheerful news, Swiss Life mentioned that it was increasing its equity holdings, with that news and possibly other information coming out of its investor day today sending the stock sharply higher.

As of EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 15.70 points or 0.33%, to trade at 4,751.40. The CAC 40 had gained 14.32 points or 0.38%, to trade at 3,811.03. The DAX had gained 23.62 points or 0.56%, to trade at 4,209.64.

  Jeff Bailey   12/1/200,  11:42:27 PM
Continuous Oil Contract ($WTIC) $1-box at this Link

$0.50-box at this Link

$0.25-box at this Link , where the current column of "O" from $50.00 to $45.50 builds an initial bearish vertical count to $40.50.

Note: The "first" bearish count we performed (Os from $55.25 to $49.50) was to $43.25. Hey! both of these bearish vertical counts would tie in with some of the levels from our conventional/fitted retracement work in Tuesday's Index Trader Wrap.

$45 looks to be the "magic number" of support from a supply/demand perspective.

  Linda Piazza   12/1/200,  10:37:13 PM
Jeff's mention of OEX 584 in a previous post got me interested in looking at what Keltner charts might show about upside targets. Would there be any congruence with the methods Jeff uses? Here's a daily Keltner chart with some annotations: Link Sometimes nested Keltner lines are positioned so that it's clear that a move one direction or another is imminent, but they're not perfectly clear in this snapshot. Resistance (up to 569 currently, but still rising) looks as if it's a little heavier than support, but the top blue resistance line turns up as if it's going to allow for more upward movement. Although it's a little difficult to see and I forgot to mention it in the annotations, there's also daily support at 561.35. Bulls would most like to see daily closes above that level, as that most strongly preserves the possibility of reaching toward 582 over the next days or couple of weeks, while daily closes below it most strongly preserve the possibility of retreating toward 551-554 over the next days or couple of weeks.

  OI Technical Staff   12/1/200,  10:13:21 PM
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