Option Investor
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  OI Technical Staff   12/10/20,  6:23:55 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  6:11:19 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

Please note! All earlier intra-day Market Snapshots/Internals were incorrect as it relates to the various EQUITY Index +/- point changes. I had been using Thursday's 03:00 PM EST values, instead of Thursday's 04:00 values.

The above is an accurate depiction of today's internals and +/- point moves.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  5:13:15 PM
Was just looking at SIRI $7.59 +5.85% ... funny how it jumped to/near $7.50 and then went sideways from there.

Suggests to me that there was a lot of hedging going on with options (probably from $5.00 and we might see a very "pegged" type of trade next week, unless of course, somebody flinches because they can't take the pain.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  4:33:02 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

This week's trade blotter at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  4:17:52 PM
That buy program looks to have been generated by those heating oil numbers. Can't quote the exact date, but largest short position in some time.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  4:15:20 PM
QQQQ $39.99 ...

Next week's WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $38.63, $39.28, Piv= $39.89 $40.54, $41.15.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  4:14:53 PM
SPY gets a kick to $119.30 on that program

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  4:14:25 PM
Buy Program Premium ...

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  4:04:51 PM
QQQQ $39.96 .... crazy... you could of bought all you wanted just prior to the 04:00 close at $39.86.

Since moving to a NASDAQ listing, I do believe the "official" close on the QQQQ is now 04:00 and not 04:15 PM EST. I would appreciate knowing if I am incorrect, but from what I have been able to uncover, the QQQQ "official close" is marked at 04:00 PM EST.

Still using 04:15 PM EST for the SPY and DIA.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  3:57:06 PM
The SOX looks as if it's going to end the day below those linked 30-sma and 200-ema's.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  3:48:59 PM
Bullish day trade hold over alert ... Unless the QQQQ were to trade $39.80 before today's close, I would hold this bullish day trade over the weekend.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  3:48:00 PM
Barring some exciting action into the close, today's OEX candle might end up being a doji at the top of yesterday's range. This week, we've had a bearish Tuesday followed by a bounce that retraced less than half the decline, and then a bullish Thursday followed by a decline that retraced less than half the previous day's bounce. That was preceded by a Monday that had produced a doji. And, if you look back to last Friday's close, you can see that for all that jumbled trading, the OEX is currently less than a point away from last Friday's close.

One thing that may have happened, though, is that the OEX may be narrowing that broadening formation, perhaps forming an out-of-joint diamond at the top of its climb. Watching for a break of the narrowing formation, either upside or downside, might give us a clue as to future direction, but I'm writing off the rest of the afternoon's action as fear of holding, whether it's bulls or bears who show the most fear.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  3:33:51 PM
The TRAN has minimally confirmed the small H&S now, on its five-minute chart, but so far it's not moving downhill any faster than it did after confirming the big one. That's because it has support on the daily chart just below the current level, I think.

  James Brown   12/10/20,  3:31:30 PM
Harley Davidson (HDI) is seeing some follow through on the recent bounce at the exponential 200-dma. Today's move is noteworthy because it breaks through resistance at the $60.00 mark.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  3:25:42 PM
No change to the 39.75-40.14 QQQQ range, with little indication of an impending break in either direction. The chop zone continues sideways, with the Keltner channels managing to narrow slightly to a 39.79-39.08 range- this is pure noise at this point, and hopefully the eventual breakout will followthrough without whipsawing.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  3:22:15 PM
VIX.X alert 12.68 -1.39% ... new session low. See if anything happens, if it infuences trade.

QQQQ $39.94 seems calm.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  3:15:09 PM
Whatch your VIX.X 12.74 -1.08% ... you just never know...

QQQ $39.96 ....

  James Brown   12/10/20,  3:09:46 PM
Defense stocks are on the rebound. The group hit some profit taking over the last three or four days and most of the big players in the group are bouncing: LMT, RTN, NOC, GD.

  James Brown   12/10/20,  3:07:52 PM
Yesterday I mentioned UHS as it broke out over the $47 level and produced a new quadruple top buy signal its P&F chart.

Now shares have broken above resistance at $48.00 and the bottom of its gap down. The P&F chart points to $62.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  3:03:42 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  3:02:23 PM
The SOX has tested the linked 30-sma and 200-ema today, but hasn't been able to sustain values above it or move into yesterday's gap.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:59:41 PM
Spread ... as flat as a pancake. .... QQQQ $39.90 ... one-minute until bond market closes.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:54:42 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $53.55 +1.98% .... May need to get something out of Lehman Bros. (LEH) next week to make a decision among buyers to press above $54.00.

Who is buying today? Is it optimistic bulls? Or is it jittery bears?

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:53:19 PM
The OEX bounces again from what would have been this morning's H&S neckline, from just above the five-minute 100/130-ema's. The TRAN, however, is forming an interesting small H&S at its five-minute 100/130-ema's, the shoulders just at the 100-ema and the neckline for its much bigger H&S formation, with that larger formation in the making since the middle/end of November.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:52:30 PM
Isn't it somewhat wierd that after oil broke below $44, it hasn't been the "focus" that it was?

The MARKET has moved on to something else.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:47:18 PM
VIX.X 12.83 -0.38% ... here's an intra-day chart of VIX.X with DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot levels. Link

Would still suggest that put SELLING, or CALL buying is overriding theme.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:41:01 PM
The OEX drops toward the five-minute 100/130-ema's.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:39:56 PM
Spread negative ... -0.02 .... QQQQ $39.90. (ie. not looking good for day trade bulls here)

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:37:01 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.55 -0.09% .... pressed against DAILY Pivot and December's "Max Pain" of $32.50 all day.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:33:10 PM
QQQQ ... most active options are Dec. $40 puts (72,008 : 233,972), Dec. $39 puts (17,766 : 186,784), Dec. $40 calls (12,774 : 173:053).

At this point, all I can think is going on is that by trading either side of $40, it can influence an option HOLDER to think ... "I'd better sell" the option as I'll loose premium over the weekend, and expiration is just 5-days away.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:31:34 PM
The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are now at 565.12 and 564.89, respectively.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:30:06 PM
VIX.X 12.81 -0.54% .... did make a session low of 12.69 at 01:55 PM EST

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:29:07 PM
Spread +0.02 .... QQQQ $39.92.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:28:34 PM
TRIN 1.15 +38.5% ....

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  2:28:29 PM
A short cycle downphase is just starting out, with QQQQ down to 39.90. Look for a move below 39.85 for approx. 5 minutes to confirm it. The wavelet cycle, the shortest one I track, just bottomed, and so bulls and bears should lock horns right here.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:27:04 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.14 +1.20% .... I keep meaning to mention .... should JDSU Close above $3.00 next Friday, I would be exercising the RIGHT to buy this stock at the $3.00 (cost basis will be $3.00 + $0.75 options). Then will set a stop at $2.90, and look for a very bullish Santa Claus rally, and Happy New Year.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:23:32 PM
One index that shot way higher than yesterday's high was the BIX, resolving that jumbled formation to the upside. There was an inverse H&S, continuation-form, inside that jumble, but bears could have pointed to some potential bearish formations, too, and even one H&S that was confirmed this morning before the BIX moved back above the neckline. The BIX pulls back from its high of the day.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  2:21:38 PM
QQQQ is back to the midpoint of its range, unchanged from its level 5 hours ago.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:21:07 PM
The OEX did not maintain the Keltner level that bulls most wanted it to maintain, but the OEX does so far maintain the ascending trendline off the lows since 2:10 yesterday afternoon. So far. The OEX tests the line now. The TRAN has fallen away from its test of the 3700 level, but so far, remains above the neckline of its H&S. So far. It's testing it now.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:20:50 PM
spread just +0.02 .... QQQQ $39.94

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:10:24 PM
The SOX remains below its linked 30-sma and 200-ema, with those averages at 426.86 and 426.48, respectively. The SOX needs to get back above those and sustain values above those to help sentiment.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:09:36 PM
since bear meat is so greasy, one should not add too much OIL to the roaster.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  2:09:36 PM
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. federal budget deficit widened to $57.9 billion in November from $43 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department said Friday. Receipts rose from a year ago, to $134.5 billion from $118.2 billion in November 2003. Outlays rose to $192.4 billion from $161.2 billion last year. Last week, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the government recorded a $57 billion deficit in November.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:09:17 PM
The TRAN has of course moved back above the neckline of its H&S. We knew that without looking due to the rally in other indices. It's testing 3700 again, at 3696.09 as I type.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:08:37 PM
January Crude Oil (CL05f) $40.80 -4% (30-minute delayed) ... testing Wednesday's lows and "overlapping" retracement support.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  2:08:04 PM
Small pullback on the OEX after touching yesterday's high. Bulls want to see the Keltner line currently at 566.34 hold as support, other than minor violations.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:04:06 PM
When preparing bear for guests .... (to be continued) ....

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:03:25 PM
Bear meat is very greasy ..... (to be continued)

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  2:02:31 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  1:56:29 PM
One good thing in bulls' favor is that the advdec line has been climbing steadily since early morning. Bulls want to see that climb continue. On the Futures side, Jane has already mentioned that the VIX and TRIN aren't confirming each other, so it's going to be impossible to get all ducks in a row just yet.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  1:54:51 PM
The OEX bested yesterday's high by 2 cents and now pulls back. Fifteen-minute MACD attempts a bullish cross from above signal, but . . . . Lots of buts.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  1:51:54 PM
The OEX inches up toward yesterday's 567.11 high, doing more than inching as I typed.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  1:45:32 PM
QQQQ update at this Link . Growing cobwebs between the 39.80-40.10 channel bands.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  1:44:51 PM
Short-squeeze alert! IWO $65.25 +0.60% ... this could be negating the reverse head/shoulder pattern as the right shoulder grows into the right ear!

  James Brown   12/10/20,  1:44:00 PM
Dow-component and OI call play UTX is now up three days in a row. Today shares have gapped above round-number resistance at $100 to hit new all-time highs. This move follows last night's positive analyst meeting.

  James Brown   12/10/20,  1:41:40 PM
The rebound continues in OI call play ARLP. The stock is cracking overhead resistance at its 10-dma and the $67 level.

  James Brown   12/10/20,  1:39:15 PM
Dow-component General Electric (GE) has raised its cash dividend by 10% and announced another $15 billion for its stock buyback program.

Shares are up 1.4% to $36.53.

Smith Barney also raised its price target on GE from $38 to $44.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  1:36:48 PM
Speaking of distrusted continuation-form inverse H&S's, the OEX has one, too, visible on its 15-minute chart. My problem with these formations in the current time period is that prices have ambled about so much that any bear can find a regular H&S and any bull an inverse one that suit a bias.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  1:35:21 PM
I knew I didn't trust those continuation-form inverse H&S's. See Jonathan's 13:26 post that gives a reason we should distrust them, if you haven't already read his post. Great information, Jonathan. My distrust was anecdotal only, just from observations of their spotty performance.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  1:26:53 PM
What about the inverse head and shoulders in the Q's, left shoulder bottom(top) Dec 7 at 43.37 with head bottom at 38.24 Dec 9. Although critical shoulder coincides with your head and shoulder.

I see it. My hesitation with reverse head and shoulders occurs when they print at or near the tops of longer cycle moves. The h&s / reverse h&s pattern in explained by cycle theorists (such as J.M. Hurst) as the result of long cycles topping and rolling over as the shorter cycles nested within them bounce up and down within their narrower ranges. When a long cycle is topping, reverse h&s patterns are unreliable, as the longer cycle provides a downward bias to counter it. In these cases, the consolidative sideways action is more likely a flag or a complex top than a reverse h&s bottom. I'll say this: if it is a reverse h&s, it's signalling a very early abort to the daily cycle downphase, with extremely bullish implications. I view that as the lower-probability outcome, but it's certainly possible- I discussed the implications of an upside breakout from here in last night's Futures Wrap.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  1:23:39 PM
The OEX broke to the upside out of the symmetrical triangle that it had formed at the top of its climb. It needs to move above yesterday's high to confirm the breakout.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  1:10:43 PM
Through all this twisting and coiling, the OEX has settled itself into an equilibrium position on its 15-minute chart. It's trying to break above the upper trendline of its symmetrical triangle as I type, and if it's successful, it may break out of that equilibrium position to the upside, but it may instead just trade in a tight, 2.2-point range. When these set up, however, Keltner resistance and support ring the OEX, and it becomes difficult to assess which is stronger.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  1:09:28 PM
Stepping away for 15 minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:59:09 PM
Thanks Linda! .. I'll check into in in a little bit. Got to get started on the 01:00 update.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:57:48 PM
Jeff, I'm a QCharts user and use Keltner channels, too. I think Jonathan and I use different settings on our nested Keltner channels, but here's the preference page from one of my channels (the broadest): Link Maybe something on this setting page will help?

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  12:57:11 PM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 41.25, -3%.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:52:54 PM
Short squeeze alert! in JupiterMedia (JUPM) $20.00 +5.4% .. rocketing from $19.30 in past 5-minutes.

This can't be option-expiration related, as this stock's option open interest is very low. However, I've noted in the past that this one has a large short-interest in it.

  Tab Gilles   12/10/20,  12:52:13 PM
Pullback on INDU then a final rally towards 10,750? Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:51:21 PM
VIX.X 12.85 -0.23% .... approaching the morning low of 12.76.

I can smell it!

QQQQ $39.95 here, maybe $40.10 should VIX.X undercut the morning low. Trigger some option action.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  12:50:13 PM
The 30 minute cycle oscillastors are still in a downphase for QQQQ but it's clearly corrective through this miserable sideways narrowing drift. The head and shoulders (updated at this Link ) is still in play but that right shoulder is extending sufficiently to put the pattern in doubt. Traders wary of the chop can look to follow the breakout above 40.14 or below 39.75.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:49:53 PM
Bullish day traders looking for a squeeze in the QQQQ.

With markets still rather quiet, I would have to begin thinking that if we're going to get a bullish upside squeeze on the bears, it would most likely come at 03:00 to 04:00 PM EST, where it would be VERY HELPFUL for the bull's case if the YIELD curve were to steepen, and eyeball a "spread" of +0.10 or more, where that would then have bears wanting to perhaps get flat into the weekend.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:43:31 PM
Jonathan .... thanks again for the Keltner info, but to tell you the truth, I have no clue what I'm doing with the QCharts settings at this point.

I can't get it to look like your 10:37:22 chart at all.

But! I do see that POTENTIAL head/shoulder top pattern.

Now I also have some conviction to my thoughts of a POTENTIAL short squeeze in the major indices.

I feel great pressure building, we'll find out what those large blocks in the QQQQ after-hours is about eventually.

Obviously I'm more bullish with a QQQQ long at $39.96. Looks like I'm early at this point.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:42:53 PM
I just looked at the clock. Could have sworn it was 2:00 at least.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:42:12 PM
I've been watching the BIX today, but its pattern is hard to define. It's a jumble of up and down moves above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with one spike lower about mid-morning. Oscillators are mixed, too, with MACD trying to turn higher and RSI hooking lower. I've been watching to see if the BIX confirms its double-top pattern by falling beneath 569.74 or if it negates it by zooming higher.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  12:42:11 PM
Nymex crude is currently down 1.76% to 41.775. Euros and CAD futures negative but well off their lows, CAD almost back to unchanged.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  12:36:06 PM
Feels like op-ex week has already started. QQQ is restricted to a range between 39.82 and 40.04.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:35:53 PM
Shall I admit that I've had to have surgery to reform my nose after a mountain biking accident, Keene?

We have a lot of technical trails here in my part of Texas, but not too much that looks like the picture you posted. There are some not too far away, but I'm a creature of habit and like my lakeside trails.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:35:35 PM
C'mon trader's ... .sell those 10-years! .... 4.158%. Get those foreigners buying dollar, opting for stocks instead!

Just don't "oversell" those 10-year's and spook to the equity markets. Graaadual pace. Graaaadual pace.

By "foreigners" I would also include companies like Intel (INTC), where they bring back some of those overseas profits at the reduced tax rate. Re-invest in America!

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:34:35 PM
The TRAN still coils just underneath the neckline of its H&S. I distrust this kind of development when I see it. There should have been a quick drop, perhaps a rise up to retest the formation and then another drop. There was a quick drop, but it was minimal with respect to the TRAN's usual quick moves and was followed almost immediately by a forming up into a consolidation pattern.

  Keene Little   12/10/20,  12:33:44 PM
Linda, is this you mountain biking? Link

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:31:14 PM
The OEX rose again, into a possible second right shoulder. More likely, the formation now resolves into a neutral triangle.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:30:09 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $53.34 +1.58% .... only notable mover in the MM Profiles.

Other that newly added Pulte Home (PHM) $60.20 +4.96% ....

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:24:56 PM
After fading from 150.17 to 148.75, the brokers (XBD.X) 149.05 +0.39% getting a little bid back here. DAILY R2 149.80 was tested.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:24:18 PM
I never played football or soccer. (See comments on Futures side). Smile. I do mountain bike, so I'll have to draw an analogy from that. When I was relatively new to mountain biking, I read a book that helped immensely, teaching me how to shift my weight uphill and downhill. Except for one technique. That technique was on avoiding trees or other obstacles, and it suggested that when riding through forested trails between trees, that you actually aim for one tree but then swerve slightly to side just before coming up on it. I have a depth perception problem, not always a great problem to have when you're weaving through trees separated only an inch more than your handlebars, so I was up for anything that might help.

That technique didn't! I got flipped over my handlebars more times than I care to mention trying out that technique. I think in this market, we have a tendency to hone in on those intraday chart developments as I was honing in on those trees. Another book in technique suggested that you never stare at an obstacle but instead look where you want to go. I think we have to draw back and look for the better path a bit because there sure are a lot of trees in the way here.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  12:24:02 PM
Another bounce for QQQQ from a lower wavelet low above the 39.80 line. Bulls need to see north of 40.05 to get a run at the 40.10-.14 resistance area. The narrow range has the 30 min cycle channel narrowed to 39.78-40.09.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:23:19 PM
For QQQQ by itself, look for a 5-minute close above today's BLUE #2 of $40.02. QQQQ has been challenging to session high of $40.07, but sellers have been able to push below $40.02 on each 5-minute bar.

What will it take to get the sellers to go away?

Probably a steepening curve is my thought.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:20:17 PM
QQQQ $39.97 -0.26% .... spread is +.08, but 30-year -0.4 bp

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  12:10:41 PM
The OEX drifts closer to those five-minute 100/130-ema's, roughly describing the H&S neckline. The neckline is actually a little higher than those averages, but I wouldn't dare suggest that the neckline break had been confirmed without a break of those averages, too, with the lowest of the two at 564.27. At this juncture, I wouldn't even dare to suggest that the downside target will be met, either, but for the sake of other traders will mention that a confirmation will set up a potential downside target of about 561.25.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:10:37 PM
10-year at 41.54 and coming back to test DAILY Pivot. It's going to be close for a QQQQ bull, but I think a QQQQ bull wants YIELDS to kick back higher.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:08:53 PM
Yuck! ... 30-year back down 0.5 BP.

QQQ testing DAILY Pivot, now $39.86.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:04:34 PM
Adjusted bullish day trade stop alert to $39.80 from $39.82.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  12:02:30 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:54:58 AM
5-year -0.3 bp, 30-year +0.2 bp , so spread +0.05. Need 30-year to rise faster than 5-year for you QQQQ bulls.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:53:31 AM
Bullish day trade long alert .... for the QQQQ $39.96 here, stop $39.80, target $40.41.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  11:52:51 AM
Stepping away for 10 minutes.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  11:52:25 AM
QQQQ drifiting sidwats, with another test of right h&s shoulder resistance just repelled at 40.04. The shoulder is extending longer than it should, not yet invalidating the pattern but very close. If this is to play out as a bearish pattern, the bears are going to have to actually move the price lower, somthing they've been unable to do since 10AM.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  11:52:21 AM
The TRAN looks as if it's forming some sort of distribution pattern beneath the neckline for the H&S, broken through this morning. That's a natural occurrence, but in this market climate, I start worrying when we don't see immediate follow-through on a trendline or formation break.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:50:23 AM
10-year ($TNX.X) 4.161% (unch) .... got a little spat of selling, with YIELD popping just above DAILY Pivot of 4.149%.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:45:00 AM
VXN.X 19.56 -1.41% ... low of session

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:44:07 AM
SPX 1,188.15 , QQQQ $39.97

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:43:29 AM
5-year (unch).... 30-year now up 0.7 bp.

  Keene Little   12/10/20,  11:43:14 AM
Linda, what you said times 10 (11:11). Agree completely.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:43:02 AM
Watch out equty bears! ..... Treasuries reversing course!!!

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  11:39:15 AM
I started to type "Careful, bulls," because the OEX is now rounding down at the appropriate level for a right shoulder for a H&S on its five-minute chart, neckline at the 100/130-ema's. But it's not with sarcasm that I write that I don't know if bulls should be careful or not, or if the formation means anything if confirmed or not. It's nicely formed. Bearish divergence did accompany the formation of the head. But TRIN is neutral and the advdec line just coils.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  11:28:07 AM
The OEX needs to make a higher high than yesterday's to avert a potential H&S on its intraday chart with a neckline at the five-minute 100/130-ema's. If the OEX is going to form a right shoulder, it should probably roll over from below 567.

  Mark Davis   12/10/20,  11:15:24 AM
Linda once again we are thinking the same thing at the same time (see my 11:12 on the Futures side). TA not trustworthy lately and is driving technicians crazy second guessing their analysis.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  11:11:54 AM
My charts are a mess. I've got trendlines drawn everywhere. I'm watching descending regression channels, important moving averages, potential H&S's or inverse ones, bearish right triangles and all kinds of things, sometimes on the same chart. It's not that I'm a messy and disorganized person--far from it--but it's that the action is messy. There will be better trading periods. A final break--be it downside or upside--from the OEX's broadening formation should produce a nice directional move, for example. Even if you're disciplined about your stops, in this kind of environment, multiple small or moderate losses can eat bigtime into your trading capital. If you're losing, losing, losing despite beautiful trade setups, then it's probably not you. It's the market that's misbehaving. Wait until it's better ordered again. Congratulate yourself every time you let an iffy trade setup go by. We've got all kind of forces working behind the scenes to sort out the impact of various developments taking place worldwide. Let them do it. We can take advantage of their decisions when charts show us more clearly what they are.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  11:07:54 AM
Bonds remain firm, still holding their gains but with TNX unwilling to let go of 4.14% support, currently down 1.5 bps to 4.146%. The USD Index haas pulled back off its highs, gold, euros and CAD off their lows. This uncertain chop is reflected in the sideways/lower drift in QQQQ over the past hour. But below 40.05, the head and shoulders profiled earlier is still potentially in play.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:03:36 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  11:03:12 AM
The OEX is attempting a bounce after retesting the top of its descending regression channel and its five-minute 100/130-ema's. Keltner support is trying to gather beneath the OEX, too, but still may be a little lower than the OEX's actual level now, perhaps at about 564. The OEX may need to retreat to that level before it can attempt a firmer climb.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  10:58:42 AM
The lack of range has the 30 min channel contracting, with support up to 39.80 and resistance down to 40.06 QQQQ. 39.75-.78 continues to appear as key support under this chop.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:52:30 AM
The TRAN has just dropped below the last swing low of 3669.88, from 12/08.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  10:48:29 AM
January Crude Oil (cl05f) updated daily interval bar chart with my conventional and fitted retracement at this Link

Understand the dollar's recent gains as it relates to oil, but the MARKET's understanding of where oil has been, relative to where it is, when you think about the economy, which S&P 500 should be reflecting as a whole.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  10:47:22 AM
QQQQ head and shoulders updated at this Link.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:39:42 AM
The BIX turns down again, but remains above the confirmation level for its double-top formation, with that level at 369.73 and the BIX currently at 371.35.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:38:34 AM
So far, the linked 30-sma and 200-ema have held as resistance on the SOX.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:37:06 AM
The OEX tests the top of the descending regression channel that it broke through yesterday afternoon, as well as the five-minute 100/130-ema's, an important test.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:34:00 AM
Note that the OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 564.14 and 563.98, respectively. The OEX might slow its decline or even attempt a bounce at those averages.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:31:26 AM
The TRAN has now dropped below yesterday's low.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  10:29:27 AM
Swing trade bullish call alert for two (2) Pulte Home (PHM) Link April $65 Calls (PHM-DM) at the offer of $3.20.

PHM $60.17 here.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:28:22 AM
The TRAN has now dropped below the neckline for its H&S, a minimal break so far. Market bears want the break to deepen and to be sustained. Bulls want a quick bounce that shows that transportation stocks are being bought. The TRAN is at 3681.27 as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  10:28:02 AM
The current leg of the decline is playing out as a right shoulder. A break of 39.75-.78 QQQQ projects to an implied target around 39.40 QQQQ. Look for a surge in volume on the break of the neckline if it occurs.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:20:51 AM
The TRAN still hovers near that H&S neckline, not yet able to produce much of a bounce.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:15:56 AM
The converging 200-sma and -ema for crude futures did prompt the bounce, with those averages at 40.46 and 41.27, respectively.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  10:15:26 AM
Look at them brokers run! Next week, earning from Lehman (LEH) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will be very important for the group.

Trade volumes have been very brisk the recent quarter. The "key" for some will be if their trading books have been on the right side of the markets (commodities, currencies, Treasuries, corporates, junk bonds)

If I have one negative concern concern regarding my 1/2 bullish position in Morgan Stanley (MWD) is last night's CNBC interview with their Chief Economist.

It sounded to me like he was still expecting a housing bubble to pop, based on the thought that Treasuries would have sold off SHARPLY. This has me "reading into things" that Morgan is still a BIG net short in the Treasury market.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:12:04 AM
The SOX is rising to test its 200-ema, a test that might be important to watch. The 200-ema is at 426.49, closely linked with the 30-sma at 426.86. These linked averages proved tough resistance for the SOX yesterday.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  10:11:37 AM
Possible head and shoulders shaping up here for QQQQ: Link

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:10:07 AM
The OEX coils at the top of its climb.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:05:38 AM
The TRAN drops closer to that neckline.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  10:03:46 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  10:03:41 AM
The Fed's open market desk has replaced 7.75B in expiring repos with 2.25B, for a 5.5B net drain for the day.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  10:02:18 AM
The OEX has closed the gap from this morning, but MACD doesn't appear to agree with the OEX's direction. I'm still reserving judgment, but bulls should be cheered by the bounce from the former descending regression channel and the gap closure (although the OEX comes back to test the gap again as I type). They just need to see a higher high to go along with it. Remember that according to standard theory, which hasn't held true at all lately, the OEX will not again touch the top boundary of its broadening formation on the daily chart. According to post-2003 theory, it will zoom above it as likely as fall below the lower boundary. We just have to wait to see and this kind of action we've been seeing is typical. I wouldn't trade this, myself, at least with OEX options. The moves either are too sudden or else too small and reversing too soon to benefit options traders.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  10:01:23 AM
EntreMed (ENMD) $2.74 +32% ... little biotech hot out of the gate

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  9:59:45 AM
Euros and CAD are down again, and gold has failed from a lower high of 437.6, currently down to 435.20. It bounced from the 433 support level at the session low. If the 430-435 confluence fails, next support is at 428.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  9:56:10 AM
VIX.X 12.83 -0.38% .... QCharts' Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.16, 12.49, Piv=13.10 , 13.43, 14.04

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  9:55:44 AM


  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  9:54:16 AM
Homebuilders-a-rock'n 744.66 +2.56% ...

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  9:52:57 AM
QQQQ failed one cent shy of the 40.01 level at descending 7200-tick SMA resistance, now testing 39.88-.90 from above.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:52:27 AM
The TRAN isn't showing much of a rebound yet. The OEX still tests this morning's gap.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  9:50:00 AM
QQQQ's testing 7200-tick SMA resistance now.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:48:52 AM
The OEX now rises to test this morning's gap.

  Jim Brown   12/10/20,  9:47:21 AM
Alert - Consumer Sentiment = 95.7, (est 93.5, last 92.8)

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  9:44:05 AM
Brokers (XBD.X) 149.16 +0.47% ... showing early strength

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:43:58 AM
The TRAN dove below 3700 again this morning. At 3690.34 as I type, it's again approaching the neckline for its long-in-the-making (since mid-November) H&S on its 30-minute chart. I think the TRAN's bounce from this neckline yesterday while the OEX was breaking below a similar neckline was a danger signal to bearish plays, as were other approaching support levels on other indices. That neckline has now risen to about 3685.50. Market bulls want to see it hold again today. Market bears want a sustained (not a quick piercing, quickly reversed) move below it.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  9:41:24 AM
QQQ bounced from a session low of 39.74 and is now chewing on resistance in the 39.88-.90 area. 7200-tick SMA resistance is at 40.01 currently, also a confluence level. Above 40.01, the 30 minute cycle downphase currently trying to start should stall.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:39:48 AM
The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are currently at 563.77 and 563.67, respectively. If the OEX should head down far enough to test them and then rise again, bulls should worry about the possibility of a H&S forming with a neckline right at those averages. They would want that bounce from that average to reach a new high (above yesterday's) in pretty short order.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:36:59 AM
The OEX pulls back closer to that top trendline that defines its former descending regression channel.

I don't see strong Keltner support right at that trendline, but rather just below it.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:34:32 AM
The SOX opens lower, too, at 422.03 as I type.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:33:39 AM
The OEX is dropping toward the top of the descending regression channel that it broke above yesterday. It gapped lower this morning, not a great sign, but it did the same thing yesterday, too. So far, this just constitutes a retest of broken support. So far.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  9:32:38 AM
QQQQ opens on a downtick in the almost-oversold 30 min cycle oscillators, with the channels already pointed south. Current 30 min channel support is at 39.76, resistance 40.12.

  Jim Brown   12/10/20,  9:19:54 AM
BZH announced a 3:1 stock split

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  9:12:02 AM
Futures are lower this morning. It's not always possible to translate ES futures action into OEX action, but OEX traders don't want to see the OEX drop back inside the descending regression channel that it broke above yesterday, with that channel's top trendline now at about 564.40, near Wednesday's high. That would put yesterday's zoom higher in question.

Traders have much to consider this morning, including the likely impact of the PPI numbers as well as developments in currency markets and crude. Currency markets saw another big zoom in the dollar overnight, although there's been a bit of a retracement this morning, and most commentators consider the dollar's climb an oversold bounce. In the case of the dollar's rise against the yen, it's difficult for me to assess how right those commentators are, since I'm beginning to hear rumors that Japan may already be in a recession and some data show troublesome signs. Those are just rumors as of yet. Crude prices have been impacted by an impending cut in production. The dollar's rise should be troublesome to our exporters and multinationals, but if the climb is considered temporary, market watchers may discount that deleterious effect. Crude's rise should be troublesome to equity markets, but if market watchers aren't sure that higher crude prices will be maintained, that effect, too, could be discounted. Jim would advise that the prices will be maintained and even go higher over the long haul, I think. The dollar's rise is not as troublesome if crude rises, perhaps, because a higher dollar helps offset the effects of higher crude. There's just a lot to consider and I don't know how big-money people will resolve all the issues.

Therefore, we're relegated to watching chart patterns, and that's scary, because they just haven't worked lately. There have been conflicting patterns, enough encouragement to keep trapping bulls and bears both. Yesterday's OEX breakdown was accompanied by much information supporting a bearish play, but there was again no follow-through before a reversal. The OEX remains within the broadening formation on its daily chart and that broadening formation is living up to its reputation as being difficult to trade and featuring increasingly volatile moves as it broadens. I'm going to refrain from making trading suggestions while the OEX remains within that formation, but will of course continue to make comments on what I see developing for the benefit of those in trades.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  8:32:31 AM
Bonds are down to 112.97, TNX -1.3 bps at 4.148%, QQQQ is up to 39.86 and gold is recovering, currently -.5 at 436.5. Euros and CAD are both negative- overall, the market appears to be greeting the data with a yawn.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  8:31:07 AM










  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  7:50:48 AM
Equities are lower, ES trading 1186, NQ 1602, YM 10525 and QQQ -.24 to 39.81. Gold is trading 435.5, silver flat at 6.80, ten year notes up .187 at 113.0156 and Nymex crude up .375 at 42.90.

We await the 8:30 release of the PPI for November, est. .1%, core PPI, est. .2%, then at 9:45AM, Michigan sentiment, est. 93.5 and at 2PM, the treasury budget, est. -53B.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/10/20,  7:47:17 AM
Jonathan, Tks for talents & effort in the monitor: also for your offer to share setting for the Quotetracker. Would you help with information entering this onto my system as I was unaware one could change settings. Do you need to have a futures data feed, as it seems you have futures info in your comments? What is your feed source ? Tks again, Jim

Jim, I use Interactive Brokers as my feed for realtime data. First off, I strongly recommend consulting the manual for Quotetracker, accessible from the Help menu. Also, the support is excellent, as Jerry Medved, the author and developer of the program, is "always on" and very sharp. To change settings, right click on your intraday charts and check out "Select Indicators", among others. It's an EXTREMELY configurable program, and no, I'm not compensated for saying so (unfortunately). I can email you my "Charts.INI" file, which you'd save into your c:\program files\quotetracker" directory, if you want to try my settings. But, I'm not equipped here to do technical support, etc., and so if you want to give it a shot, you're doing so at your own risk. Alternatively, you can copy the settings off my 2-day ES chart in last night's Futures Wrap manually.

  Linda Piazza   12/10/20,  7:20:07 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei erased early gains to turn lower in the afternoon, with some investors fleeing ahead of next week's tankan survey of business conditions among large manufacturers. Most other Asian markets declined, too, despite a surging dollar, usually a help to Asia's exporters. Most European markets post gains, with semi-related companies gaining, and miners and oil majors recouping some of their recent losses. Our futures sank slowly lower throughout the overnight session. As of 6:56 EST, gold was up $3.20 and crude down, $0.14. Crude had risen as OPEC meets ahead of an expected production cut, but that 6:56 level had seen a drop from earlier overnight highs. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With a surge in volume, the Nikkei climbed in early trading, but with an even bigger surge in volume at the open of the afternoon session, it turned down again. It closed lower by 19.83 points or 0.18%, at 10,756.80. Drug makers were one focus in early trading, with Japan's Sankyo Company affirming that it's considering mergers. Sankyo was gaining after that announcement and also after its earnings report. Other drug makers gained in early trading, too. The yen weakened against the dollar as currency markets saw another huge move overnight, with that weakening viewed as good for Japanese exporters. Crude built on yesterday's gains, working against the beneficial effect of the weakening yen. However, some attributed the afternoon decline to investors selling positions before next week's much-watched tankan survey. Investors expect the tankan, a Bank of Japan index that measures business conditions at large manufacturers, to show a decline, and this week's disappointing economic data increases worries about how deep a decline the tankan might show.

Most other Asian markets declined, too, some only modestly. The Taiwan Weighted was flat, down 0.04%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.91%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.86%, one of the few Asian bourses to report a gain. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.76%. China's November Consumer Prices increased by 2.8% over the year-ago level, with that growth the lowest in nine months. This is the second bit of data in the last two days that demonstrated that China may be managing the soft landing it wanted although some economists remain doubtful of its ability to do so. Larger harvests that cut food costs also played a part in decreasing those consumer prices. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.58%.

Most European markets turn in gains this morning, following through on gains in U.S. markets. The dollar's strengthening helped exporters. Oil majors gained and chip-related stocks benefited from the post-NSM pop in the U.S. Philips Electronics also was helped by an announcement that it had sold a hefty portion of its position in French IT group Atos Origin.

As of 7:14 EST, the FTSE 100 was up 9.20 points or 0.20%, to 4,697.60. The CAC 40 was up 18.57 points or 0.50%, to 3,766.03. The DAX was up 20.52 points or 0.49%, to 4,170.93.

  Jeff Bailey   12/9/200,  12:25:39 AM
Look at that dollar run! (dx00y) 82.62 +0.87% (23:55:09) ... WEEKLY R2 just ahead at 82.68.

  Jeff Bailey   12/9/200,  11:56:18 PM
Small-cap Nov.-May seasonal bullish update... chart at this Link

According to The Stock Trader's Almanac, the small caps should start moving up in mid-December.

Updated Rusell 2000 Growth iShares (AMEX:IWO) at this Link

Would want to see something back north of $65.20-$65.30, get that "right shoulder" growing into the ear after next week's expiration.

  Jeff Bailey   12/9/200,  11:13:56 PM
Were you shocked to learn.... that the New York Yankees' slugger Jason Giambi had been using steroids for several years?

if you were .....

then don't let this breaking news item also catch you off guard....

QQQQ might be using performance enhancing steroids! ... Check it out! Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/9/200,  10:35:36 PM
Thanks Jonathan.... I'll try slapping one on tomorrow, in combination with the Pivot Levels.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/9/200,  10:28:23 PM
The settings for my 30 min channel proxy are Keltner 35 period (offset 4.5) on the 100-tick charts. These are nested within 60 min proxies, which are Keltner 90 period channels (offset 5), and the short cycle channel within those is a Keltner 10 period (offset 1.75). These are programmed in Quotetracker, and I'd be pleased to email a copy of my Charts.ini file for any QT users who want to import my settings.

Tonight's futures wrap has a 150-tick ES chart displaying these settings in action.

  Jeff Bailey   12/9/200,  10:03:12 PM
Tab ... what do you make of this? Link

The Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) at 540, would look somewhat similar to the SPX as it broke above its REVERSE head/shoulder bottom at 1,149 neckline.

Wouldn't it?

  Tab Gilles   12/9/200,  9:03:43 PM
Most of the major indices since mid-November are showing bearish divergence on MACD/RSI. Link Link Link

MUR ran up to its 100-ema today. My charts on MUR were posted yesterday 10:58am. Link

  OI Technical Staff   12/9/200,  8:57:22 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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