Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  OI Technical Staff   12/13/20,  7:43:11 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  7:09:17 PM
March e-min S&P futures (es05h) ... bullish looking settlement today. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  6:50:56 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  5:52:54 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  4:38:42 PM
Shopping.com Ltd. (SHOP) $26.49 +7.59% .... jumps to as high as $28.38 in extended session. $27.78 here.

In 8-K filing, Shopping.com UK Limited, a subsidiary of Shopping.com Ltd., and Google (GOOG) entered into a Google Services Agreement whereby Shopping.com UK will participate in Google's sponsored links program in the U.K.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  4:22:40 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ...

Closed out Friday's carryover bullish day trade in the QQQQ at $40.19. ($0.23, or +0.58%)

Day trade long the QQQQ again at $40.29, stop $40.09, targeting $40.52. Carryover into tomorrow's session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  4:12:11 PM
QQQQ went out at $40.28 .... $40.33 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  4:11:45 PM
Buy Program Premium DIA 106.40 , SPY 120.39

Stock futures extending gains from 04:00 PM EST cash close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  4:09:34 PM
Buy Program Premium ... DIA 106.39, SPY 120.38

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  4:06:08 PM
Buy Program Premium ... DIA 106.43 , SPY 120.31

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  3:58:54 PM
QQQQ $40.24 +0.77% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  3:57:47 PM
Bullish day trade carryover alert .... for the day trade bullish (QQQQ).

I think a bull would want to carry the QQQQ bullish overnight.

SPX looks to close at new 52-weeker.

The RISK for holding QQQQ at this point in my opinion (for a day trader) is any type of gravitation toward $40.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  3:52:08 PM
VXN.X 18.77 -4.08% .... QQQQ most active options are...

Dec. $40 puts (49,062 : 218,366)

Jan. $37 puts (39,980 : 206,755)

Jan. $39 puts (28,608 : 191.356)

Dec. $40 call (28,395 : 171,527)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  3:48:32 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.60 +0.7% ... not a component of the BIX.X, but "technology implications."

52-week high just a 40-cent deposit away at $43.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  3:47:39 PM
QQQQ's given up its bearish-divergent 30 minute cycle downphase, which has whipsawed back up in the last hour. But price hasn't been able to clear the previous high, and the steep gain was another one of those 1.2M QQQQ share buy programs. Volume's very light, and while the lack of selling is extremely bullish, the rest of this action has that op-ex tractor beam feel to it. It should get even more fun tomorrow with the FOMC pattern thrown into the mix.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  3:46:45 PM
S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 375.55 +0.69% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY R1.

Bulls would like to see a CLOSE above WEEKLY R1. Bears will/should want no part of it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  3:28:30 PM
Back, after a sudden random battle with our GVC router. This machine is cursed, and not just by me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  3:14:07 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  3:06:25 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:59:43 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,197.90, QQQQ $40.29

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:59:03 PM
Day trade long alert ... for the QQQQ $40.29 here, stop $40.09, target $40.52.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:57:16 PM
QQQQ $40.25 +0.82% ... making a move here.

Bond market closes in 3 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:53:55 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.55 +0.46% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:52:39 PM
3M (MMM) $78.75 -0.06% ... drips red. Morning "pop" to $79.45 didn't challenge December's "Max Pain" theory of $80.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:45:12 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,625 +0.77% .... trying to make a bullish move here. WEEKLY R1 10,617 offers 15-minute support.

Challenges little zone of resistance from 10,617-10,625 (see 12:53:28)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  2:44:54 PM
Volume's still very light, up to 55.4M QQQQ shares. My tick charts are stalled.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  2:36:36 PM
R2K futures have just printed a session high, with QQQQ up to 40.20 here. 30 min channel resistance is at 40.28.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:28:08 PM
5-30 year spread ... -0.21 .... QQQQ $40.16

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  2:19:41 PM
QQQQ's coming in for another retest of the rising intraday support line: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:10:03 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  2:09:57 PM
Crude oil's catching a bid, now up 60 cents or 1.47% at 41.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  2:06:46 PM
30 and 60 min channel resistance are lined up at 40.22 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  2:02:25 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  1:55:29 PM
Upside breakout for QQQQ on the largest volume of the day, approx. 1.3M QQQQ shares within 100 ticks according to my feed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  1:54:14 PM
Bidder up .... in the Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.93 +0.60% ....

this a bit surprising to me, and a little more bullish than I would have thought at this point for the broader market averages.

Has me thinking sustainable bid for longer-dated maturities, on thoughts of growing economy with little inflation.

If true, then any yield curve steepening comes from buying in the shorter-dated maturities, where perhaps, Merrill Lynch hasn't lost its mind and it will be a Fed that is "one and done" after tomorrow's meeting.

Feels/sounds a bit like 1997-2000 doesn't it?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  1:42:14 PM
The 30 minute cycle downphase that is currently stalled launched from a bearish oscillator divergence on the 30 minute chart, and while the oscillators are still pointed south, this downphase is obviously a tempest in a teapot so far. Bears need to break 39.95 to get this going to downside, but so far there's been no volume and, more importantly, very little selling.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  1:26:50 PM
I'm getting ready to leave for an appointment, and I'll be off for the rest of the day since it's out of town. I had hoped that there might be something definitive to note before I left, but that wasn't really a strong hope ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. I had just thought that someone somewhere might want to square positions ahead of that meeting. I had hoped I'd be able to give you guidelines, but as I type, I see the SOX near its LOD, but not there, below the 200-ema, but still well within striking distance of that average and with RSI trying to hook up again. I see the TRAN challenging 3700, actually a little above it, but not yet exactly zooming higher. I see the OEX hugging the midline of an ascending regression channel, still inside a broadening formation.

I see currency markets coiling, too, telling me that there's some global hesitation. Not only will the world markets await tomorrow's statement following the likely rate increase (the increase itself is probably priced in) but the world also awaits Japan's tankan survey Tuesday night (Wednesday for Japan).

Trade carefully. I should be back tomorrow morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  1:20:11 PM
Here's the OEX's latest ascending regression channel, visible on the five-minute chart: Link Note the way the OEX hugs the midline, but mostly stays below it since about noon? Should we conclude something negative about the way it's mostly staying below that midline? Should we conclude something positive about the way it hugs it, generally climbing with it? I don't think we can firmly conclude either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  1:15:50 PM
Volume has dropped off considerably for QQQQ and had been light before that, with just 39.16M shares traded so far today. With an average daily volume of 91.125M shares, its unsurprising that my tick-driven chart is generating little progress on any of the indicators. 30 min support is up all of 2 cents to 39.97.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  1:14:30 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  1:09:08 PM
The TRAN heads up for another test of 3700, at 3699.51 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  1:06:58 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  12:58:06 PM
Keltner support and Keltner resistance curve in toward the OEX's position at the midpoint of its rising regression channel. At this point, both look equally weighted and MACD has a flattish-to-slightly-downward cast, not giving any clues, either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  12:56:18 PM
VIX.X 12.34 -3.29% ... sessiion low and all-time low has been 12.26.

SPX 1,192.57 +0.38% ... most active options are ... Dec. 05 700 puts (22,960 : 158,276) , Dec. 04 1,200 calls (7,968 : 56,285), Jan. 1,050 puts (7,053 : 29,345).

The Dec. 05 700 put action (has to be selling with VIX.X lower) most likely skews the VIX.X lower, with a somewhat meaningless trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  12:56:03 PM
Another classic shot of Larry Ellison for the archives, Link , no doubt pleased over PSFT's long awaited acceptance of ORCL's takeover bid. Or, struggling to digest a tough breakfast...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  12:55:05 PM
5-30 year spread -0.15 .... QQQQ $40.06

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  12:53:28 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) ... with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  12:50:16 PM
The VXO just gapped up a bit. Not much. Probably not importantly, but we it's at least something to note and watch. Not much of that today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  12:47:36 PM
The SOX moves back toward its LOD, but isn't there yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  12:32:55 PM
So far, the TRAN has not been able to move above the appropriate right-shoulder level for a H&S building on its 15-minute chart. The shoulders are at the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 3695.39 and 3695.99, respectively, with the 15-minute closes being either at or below those averages. The TRAN forms this formation within a rising regression channel, however, so there's that mixed evidence again. The TRAN is at 3696.14 as I type, just beginning this 15-minute period. A new high of the day would negate the formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  12:32:50 PM
Despite the failure below 40.15, a short cycle upphase has kicked off, with channel support at 40.04. 30 min and 60 min channel support remain at 39.95, with the 30 min channel downphase stalled but not yet reversed. 40.15 is the upside number to beat here, 39.95 to the downside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  12:24:41 PM
In desperation, I've gone looking at all kinds of indicators. (I'm not really desperate.) I take bearish divergences with price/OBV seriously, but here, too, I see a mixture of results. GE shows bearish price/OBV divergence with the latest swing high on the daily chart, but CSCO didn't, for example.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  12:13:27 PM
Nymex crude is currently flat at 40.70, unchanged for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  12:12:04 PM
The OEX is in a kind of DMZ at the moment, between Keltner support and resistance, between historical support and resistance, too, still caught in that broadening formation, literally at the midline of its short-term ascending regression channel. TRIN is about in the middle of its range with no discernable trend that I can find, although perhaps Jane has better insight. The advdec line has been trending down most of the day, however. It appears to be trying to steady now, but market bulls should pay attention, because that trend could possibly be leading the markets to the downside, as the advdec line does sometimes. We're still seeing a mixture of chart signs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  12:09:25 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  12:03:58 PM
QQQQ has just popped above the 7200 tick SMA and is now trying to clear 40.15 resistance from earlier this morning. 30 min channel resistance is down to 40.17. If bulls can hold these levels for another 5 minutes, the short cycle will turn up, and if for 10 minutes, the 30 min cycle should join in.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  12:02:41 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  11:58:21 AM
Volume has fallen off considerably on this latest short cycle bounce. 7200-tick SMA resistance is down to 40.11, which is the number to beat if the bulls are to stall the ongoing 30 minute cycle downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  11:58:20 AM
I'll be out this afternoon for an appointment and will not make it back before the close. I should be able to post for another hour to hour and half.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  11:57:41 AM
To help me measure what's happening on the markets, I follow the SOX, BIX, and TRAN, as well as watching other indices that the other writers cover in more detail and with more regularity than I do. The OEX, BIX and TRAN are all climbing through ascending regression channels, some more cleanly than others. The SOX's pattern is completely different, however, and not nearly as bullish looking.

The GHA attempts a rise through a rising regression channel, too, but its pattern isn't as clean as some and there's a potential H&S on its 15-minute chart, with a rising neckline at the regression channel's bottom trendline. The BTK, the biotechnology index, coils. While I would not expect all indices to be acting in concert, I would like to see a bit more congruence before I believed too strongly in any one outcome, either bullish or bearish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  11:53:42 AM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) ... component changes effective at the open on Monday, 12/20/04.

Coming in .... (XMSR, ADSK, LBTYA, NTLI, MCIP, WYNN, ERICY, SIRI)

Coming out .... (CEPH, CPWR, FHCC, GNTX, HSIC, NVDA, PTEN, RYAAY).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  11:47:46 AM
5-year yield ($FVX.X) ... 3.527% is down 0.6 bp.

QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels .... 34.06, 34.69, Piv= 35.42 36.05, 36.78.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  11:45:46 AM
30-year yield ($TYX.X) ... 4.798% is down 2.5 bp.

QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels .... 46.93, 47.57, Piv=48.43, 49.07, 49.93.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  11:39:27 AM
The TRAN has so far held the ascending trendline off Friday's low. It's been testing that trendline and is perhaps attempting a bounce from it as I type, but it's at 3688.59 and the 3690 area has been resistance over the last hour.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  11:39:27 AM
The 60 min cycle channel has just rolled over, with support now down to match the 30 min cycle bottom at 39.95. If QQQ can't get back above the 7200-tick SMA resistance line, currently at 40.12, these support levels will continue to decline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  11:29:55 AM
The Fed announced a 6.75B overnight repo against 2.25B expiring, for a net add of 4.5B today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  11:27:44 AM
Session high for Feb. gold at 440.60 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  11:25:25 AM
The OEX is working its way down toward 565.83, the next 15-minute Keltner support. If it can maintain that level on a 15-minute close, the possibility remains that the OEX might continue climbing through the ascending regression channel it began forming Thursday afternoon, toward the December high. If it falls beneath 564.96 on a fifteen-minute closing basis, it throws that assumption into doubt.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  11:19:50 AM
HUI and XAU rose there, currently up 1.5% and 1.41% respectively at 216.76 and 99.71. Feb. gold futures are up 4.10 to 439.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  11:18:03 AM
QQQQ just broke the previous low, heading for 60 min channel support at 40.00 now on teh way to declining 30 min channel support of 39.95.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  11:13:07 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  11:11:44 AM
OEX 567 did hold as resistance. On the 15-minute Keltner channel, the OEX still clings to a Keltner line at 567.01, with 15-minute candles still spanning that line. Unless the OEX can soon maintain 15-minute closes above that Keltner line, it looks vulnerable now to 565.84 and perhaps even 565.93. I hesitate to give more than these very short-term targets, however, as technical analysis has not been of much use lately and some moves begin, only to be soon reversed. We're in prime territory to see either a strong buy program send the indices above nearby important resistance or to have a strong sell program turn them down from those resistance levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  11:05:44 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  11:01:06 AM
The 30 min cycle channel has rolled over for QQQQ, bringing upper resistance down to 40.32 and support to 39.97. The broader 60 min channel is only beginning to flatten now, with support also at 39.97 and resistance up to 40.40. QQQQ continues to work on 40.15 resistance despite a brief doji spike above it, and so long as this level continues to hold back the advance, the intraday cycles should continue their shift to a bearish bias.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  10:59:19 AM
The OEX tests 567.00 again, with resistance now a little less firm than a few minutes ago. A 15-minute close below 567.07 in a few minutes would go a long way toward suggesting that resistance was going to hold. A 15-minute close above it might suggest a test of 567.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:57:41 AM
Computer Technology Index (XCI.X) 719.74 +0.53% .... continue to hang around this 720 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:56:34 AM
5-30 year spread -0.17 .... QQQQ $40.14.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:54:55 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 0.6 bp at 41.52, or 4.152%. Will note that TNX.X yield opened at its DAILY S1/MONTHLY S1 correlation.

This yield level can be viewed as an important level for major indices to hold gains ABOVE, with thought that today's flattening curve most likely as flat as it will be as long as 10-year holds above that level. Should 10-year begin to kick higher, curve will begin steepening action.

Thus my thoughts that bears are going to have to get their den in order pretty quick.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  10:48:27 AM
Gold has pulled back from its earlier gains slightly, now up 2.10 at 237.70. The top came at 439.10, just south of the 440 confluence area that had been former resistance. HUI and XAU are up slightly, .76% and .61% respectively.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:44:36 AM
GSTI Software (GSO.X) 174.84 +2.62% ... new 52-weeker today. PSFT $26.44 +10.39% and Oracle (ORCL) $14.60 +9.9% the drivers in today's action.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  10:42:44 AM
Despite the doubt from a few minutes, the original projections of the OEX's Keltner chart--that it would see 567--did hold. The OEX dipped lower than that because the Keltner support did, too, as the OEX was dropping. The current action constitutes a retest of the neckline from that distrusted inverse H&S this morning, with the outcome not yet known. The one- and three-minute charts suggest that 567 is going to be strong resistance now, with a retest of that resistance still possible. The 15-minute chart suggests that 564.86-565.66 is possible, although it may take some time to work through competing support and resistance on the shorter-term charts. Keltner lines could possibly rearrange themselves while that testing goes on.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  10:37:55 AM
40.15 should now hold as resistance. If QQQQ holds below that level for another 5-10 minutes, a new 30 min cycle downphase will kick off.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:34:32 AM
5-30 year spread -0.22 .... QQQQ $40.11

Too much yield curve flattening to have new bulls interested at this point, but bears should once again be trying to get their den in order.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  10:33:55 AM
The sudden spike in crude prices is hitting the TRAN and it's turning down toward the day's low, not yet there.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:29:35 AM
Business Inventories ... were up just 0.2% as Sales jumped 1.2% (Mfg. +1.2, Retail +0.7, Wholesale +1.6). This had the inventory/sales dropping to 1.30 from September's 1.31 and August's 1.32 readings.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:27:06 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  10:26:46 AM
QQQQ bears need to plow through 40.10-40.15 support and keep below it in order to roll the flattening 30 min channel over. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  10:26:17 AM
The SOX again tests the 200-ema. The TRAN again tests 3700. Other writers have mentioned other tests of significant resistance. With all these tests going on and the outcomes not yet decided, is it any wonder there's some confusion this morning?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  10:24:02 AM
The OEX moved a little higher than the 568.20 that the Keltner channels suggested it would. (See my 10:10 post.) In doing so, it rearranged the Keltner channel resistance and support a bit, so that while the resistance just above the OEX still looks relatively firm, the support near 568 is firming up, too, and may hold the OEX, at least temporarily. The move down toward 567 to test support there is not as much a given as it appeared to have been.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  10:18:39 AM
Business inventories came in light at .2%, estimates were for .5%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:15:52 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:12:28 AM
VIX.X 12.40 -2.82% .... early morning "problem" with VIX.X looks to be corrected (was below 9.00).

Daily Pivot levels .... 12.39, 12.58, Piv=12.86, 13.05, 13.33

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  10:10:25 AM
So far, the OEX has been holding where it should if performing strongly, but the one- to three-minute charts show a strong possibility that the OEX will still retreat to at least 567, perhaps after testing 568-568.20 first.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  10:06:48 AM
For the last three days of the week last week, the GHA, the GSTI Hardware Index, printed small-bodied candles in a row, near the bottom of its recent consolidation pattern. It's currently doing the same. This high-flier has far outstripped its moving averages and went nearly vertical in November, and so probably needs a retracement. That retracement could come in the form of a sideways consolidation. In my (admittedly anecdotal) experience, even those successful sideways moves usually see a time when appropriate moving averages or trendlines have nearly caught up with the sideways trading pattern, and then prices plunge down to touch support and then spring up. One lower, but still steep trendline now crosses at about 309.25 and the 30-dma is at 298.17 and nearing round-number support at 300, and another trendline crosses at about 294. A sustained move above 320.40 throws the whole "sideways consolidation" theory into doubt.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  10:02:22 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/13/20,  10:01:11 AM
Linda I agree (9:53 post). I will not be using the VIX too much today until I can find out what the heck has happened here. The lowest low on my monthly charts is 9.31 and they go back to 1990. Today’s low was 8.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:58:41 AM
During the first retracement of the day, the SOX fell back from its test of the 200-ema, but not to a new LOD.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:57:54 AM
The TRAN still tests 3700, at 3699.87 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  9:55:58 AM
Tenet Healthcare (THC) $10.80 -10.29% ... saying it sees fourth-quarter loss will widen from Q3. In recent Q3, THC reported a loss from continuing operations of $0.11 per share.

THC saying it will need to record various charges in Q4 that could exceed $1 billion, including non-cash, long-lived asset and goodwill impairment charges as a result of its current financial trends and preliminary budget outlook.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:53:38 AM
Some of the writers on the Futures side are commenting on the extraordinary VIX level. I'm showing the same below-10 number. Is this opex related? A mistake? If not, it is actually scary.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  9:51:19 AM
Stepping away for 10 minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:48:20 AM
The OEX hit upper Keltner resistance on the seven-minute chart and turned down. That resistance is now at 569.00, and is important to watch on a closing basis. Possible support was scattered by this morning's quick rise, but exists near 568.29 (on a candle-closing basis with the current candle not yet closed), 567.80, 567, but is strongest, perhaps, near 565.86-566.04. If the OEX is performing strongly, it will find support near 567.80 or at least 567.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  9:47:22 AM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.55 +0.52% ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  9:46:49 AM
QQQQ pulled back to within steeply rising upper Keltner resistance, now testing the top of the rising 60 min channel at 40.19. Volume is starting to drop as the wavelet oscillator bottoms, and this is where a small bounce should challenge the short cycel downphase trying to form. To summarize- 30 and 60 min cycle upphase within which a short cycle downphase wants to form. If the wavelet cycle starts trending in oversold, a break below 40.10 will confirm the short cycle downphase, targeting 39.95 30-min channel support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  9:44:58 AM
Bullish day trade stop alert for the QQQQ $40.19

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:43:54 AM
The BIX turns higher, testing 375 historical S/R, with the BIX at 374.72 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:42:08 AM
The TRAN moves up to challenge 3700, at 3698.93 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:40:25 AM
The SOX currently tests its 200-ema and will soon move into the gap from Thursday morning if it can successfully maintain values above the 200-ema. The 200-ema is at 426.46 and the 200-sma is at 435.34. Bulls would be considerably cheered to see the SOX back above the 200-sma, but it's got some fairly significant resistance to get through first. Bulls should be wary of a potential rollover from the 200-ema. Currently, the SOX is at 426.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/13/20,  9:38:09 AM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert .... raising stop in Friday's bullish QQQQ trade to $40.19

QQQQ $40.32 +1.00% ... session low has been $40.22.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:37:07 AM
The 569 historical resistance level is the next presumed resistance for the OEX, with the 12/03 high of 570.50 next after that. Top Keltner resistance on the fifteen-minute chart is at 570.62, so there's fair correspondence there with some levels from which we might expect a first pullback this morning.

I'm going to be paying special attention this morning to Jane's notations on the interactions of the TRIN, VIX, and advdec line.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  9:35:11 AM
QQQQ has blasted through its upper intraday Keltner channels- 60 min resistance is down at 40.15, while the springier 30 min channel resistance is at 40.22. If bulls can hold this for 5-10 minutes longer, then we should be looking at a very bullish trending move. Short of that, this should be the level from which this upper blast should fail, due to the steep keltner violation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:31:56 AM
The OEX has already moved above the presumed neckline of the inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, but hasn't yet cleared Keltner resistance completely nor yet moved above the 568 historical resistance--just yet. It's about to do both as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:14:30 AM
I second Keene's cautions about abnormal volatility in his 9:08 post on the Futures side.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:11:49 AM
Futures are up this morning, so the OEX doesn't look inclined to retreat first to that Keltner support that I mentioned in my 20:55 post. As I mentioned, even the Keltners didn't give strong evidence one direction or the other since the OEX was between Keltner support and resistance. Next Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart is between 566.81-567.32 as I type, near a presumed neckline for a potential inverse H&S, but a continuation-form one. As Jonathan pointed out last week, there's reason for my anecdotal-based distrust of these continuation-form inverse H&S's. A break over that Keltner resistance will nevertheless represent a break over the consolidation pattern built Friday after the OEX had broken above a descending regression channel. Since the OEX remains within that broadening formation, look for as much confirmation as possible for any entry. If long or considering a long entry, protect positions at the top of the broadening formation, at about 571.80 and again at the year's high of 573.44. If this broadening formation behaved traditionally--few have over the last two years--the OEX would not again touch the top of the formation but would break to the downside before doing so. A failure to behave traditionally should perhaps be treated like any rejection of a bearish formation, as a sign that bullish sentiment is higher than it should be within such a formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  9:06:22 AM
Ten year notes have flipped lower, with TNX up 1.7 bps to 4.173% currently as equities continue to hit new highs, QQQQ up to 40.24 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  8:31:34 AM
Equities are higher, QQQQ +.24 to 40.17, ten year notes up a tick to 113.078, TNX -.5 bps to 4.151%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  8:30:43 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. OCT. RETAIL SALES REVISED TO UP 0.8% VS 0.2 PREV.

8:30am U.S. NOV RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.5% VS 0.3% FORECAST

8:30am U.S. NOV RETAIL SALES UP 0.1% VS. FORECAST OF NO CHANGE

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/13/20,  8:04:06 AM
Equities are higher, ES trading 1191.5, NQ 1613.5, YM 10568 and QQQQ +.18 to 40.11. Gold is up 2.60 to 438.20, silver 17 cents to 6.91, ten year notes +.125 to 113.062 and crude oil -.05 at 40.65.

We await the 8:30 release of retail sales for Nov., est. unchanged, retail sales ex. auto, est. +.3%, and at 10AM, business inventories for October, est. .5%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  7:06:53 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei was positive if somewhat tentative ahead of Wednesday's tankan survey. With crude lower but the dollar coiling after last week's gains, other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. Most European markets gain. Our futures pushed higher as European markets opened, but then fell back to the flat-line area, beginning a climb after that. As of 6:50 EST, gold was up $2.70 and crude, down $0.23. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After last week's rebound in the dollar against the yen and decline in crude prices, the Nikkei gapped higher Monday morning. It immediately began coiling, and coiled into the early afternoon. It broke that coil to the downside, but never turned into negative territory. It closed up 32.45 points or 0.30%, at 10,789.25. Exporters climbed in early trading, but ended mixed, especially in the tech sector. Sony was one of those exporters climbing in early trading and ended 1.9% higher. An emphasis Monday was on domestic sales of the company's new PSP Playstation Portable, beginning sales Sunday. Automakers rose. Banks closed flat or higher.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.55%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.08%. Samsung had fallen 1% after brokerage firms panned its purchase of a stake in South Korean's oil refiner SK Corp. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.05%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.11%. China's November retail sales increased 13.9%, said the Mainland Marketing Research Company, with that increase the second-largest on record. Auto sales climbed 11.8%, and building materials and home decoration sales soared 50.6% higher. Furniture sales increased at a slower pace than in October, however. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.61%, with the bourse now back near 1,300, at 1,309.695.

Most European markets trade higher this morning. It's an M&S Monday in London, with the board of Novar recommending that shareholders accept Honeywell International's all-cash offer. The London Stock Exchange's (LSE) board did not feel so favorable toward Deutsche Boerse's offer to acquire the LSE, however, rejecting the offer. Britain's LA Fitness acknowledged that it had received a number of offers. Banking-related issues were seeing mixed reaction, with HSBC Holdings receiving a downgrade from Merrill Lynch to a neutral rating while Lloyds TSB was benefiting from its affirmation of its expected earnings.

On Continental Europe, Deutsche Boerse declines, receiving a downgrade from Merrill Lynch after its offer to acquire LSE, at least partially on fears that the Deutsche Boerse may overpay. Deutsche Bank downgraded Vivendi Universal on thoughts that it had overpaid for the French soccer rights.

As of 6:50 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 21.70 points or 0.46%, at 4,715.70. The CAC 40 had gained 23.30 points or 0.62%, to trade at 3,791.72. The DAX had gained 23.52 points or 0.56%, to trade at 4,198.07.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/12/20,  10:49:02 PM
e-mini S&P March futures (es05h) with new conventional (blue) and 38.2% fitted (pink) retracement at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/12/20,  10:34:08 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot matrix retracement at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/12/20,  8:55:32 PM
The OEX still remains within a broadening formation on its daily chart, and when you study the charts of other indices, you see why. As Jim mentioned in this weekend's Wrap, some encouraging developments can be found on the Russell 2000's chart. The Russell 2000 has been finding support along a long-term ascending trendline I've had drawn on my charts for a long time with the trendline now at about 626.50. The Russell did pierce that trendline Thursday but bounced back above it and appears to be either basing in preparation for another rise or possibly forming a bear flag above support. The Russell 2000 has already completed an inverse H&S on its 60-minute chart with an upside target of about 648.50, suggesting the more positive of those two possibilities, but market bulls want to see the Russell maintain that trendline on closes and also want to see the Russell 2000 above a 50% retracement of the decline off the early December low, with that decline at about 633.30. Market bulls want to see the Nasdaq push above the 2152.12 January high and maintain that level on closes. Market bears want to see Russell 2000 support fail and Nasdaq resistance hold.

Other indices look less positive. The SOX closed below its 200-ema for a second time since gapping below it Thursday morning. Although the SOX may not be the market leader it once was, its weakness still pulls against the more positive sentiments developing on other indices. The BIX barely averted a confirmation of a double-top formation, but formed a doji at the top of a two-day climb on Friday, right at resistance. The DOW managed a close above 10,500, but remains in the middle of its own broadening formation, in a choppy zone full of potential support or resistance levels. The SPX remains well within its rising regression channel, but formed a doji at the midline, a potential danger sign that it could just as easily retreat to the bottom of that formation, near 1180, as it could climb to the top. Crude plunged, but that didn't help the TRAN this time, with the TRAN closing below 3700 again, declining on the day.

I'm going into detail about the other indices to show that mixed signals remain. This is an important week for the U.S., of course, with the FOMC meeting, but an important one for Japan, too, with the much-watched tankan survey being reported. Currency markets have zoomed around last week, sometimes impacting market performance across the globe. There's enough mixture of information to keep markets choppy.

I hope that the markets will set up a concerted move for this week, hopefully a move that will finally break the OEX out of that broadening formation. I'm just not sure it will happen Monday. It's difficult to determine the exact boundaries since the point is that the formation is broadening, but they appear to be at about 571.80 and 555.25 for the upside and downside, respectively. I'd be scared to assume an upside breakout just ahead of the January high of 573.44, however. The OEX may be narrowing its broadening formation into a diamond shape, so that it may soon be possible for us to pinpoint breakouts earlier, but for now it's difficult to weight the various support and resistance levels that encumber the congestion zone in which the OEX trades. Is resistance stronger? Is support?

As Friday ended, not even Keltners gave a strong hint. The OEX was mired in the middle of the upper half of both 7- and 15-minute Keltner channels, between support and resistance. The OEX looked as if it might be headed down to test 564.30-565, but looked as if it might find at least temporary support there. Not much else was discernable from the usually reliable Keltner charts, showing that the OEX is going to need to make a strong breakout move before we're going to get much more information there. For tomorrow, watch some of the other indices on the verge of breakouts or breakdowns, watching to see if they're pulling in concert. If not, I'd be wary of believing too much of what I was seeing develop on the OEX's charts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/12/20,  6:13:43 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

I may have to take back my 04:17:52 regarding the heating oil short interest figures generating that buy program premium.

Note the "stagger" in the INDU/DIA at DAILY Pivot, as well as the "stagger" in the SPX/SPY.

It could well be that computers needed to buy futures, which the DIA and SPY would then reflect (04:00-04:15), where that just one minute before the close brings a solid/correlative near-term support for INDU/DIA, SPX/SPY and OEX right up to Monday's DAILY S1 and new WEEKLY Pivot.

In today's 01:00 PM EST update, I thought it might take a trade at QQQQ $40.10 to signal a potential "short squeeze." I'll note Monday's DAILY R1 in regards to that thought. That's probably pretty close to the right shoulder of pattern Jonathan has been warning bulls about.

Now.... QQQQ tentative support early is found at DAILY Pivot/WEEKLY Pivot correlation.

But also note what role the SOX.X may play in this, where we see tentative resistance at DAILY Pivot and MONTHLY Pivot. There's only ONE WAY I can think of to signal a good squeeze at this point, and that is for the "weaker" SOX.X to provide some lift from the bottom, with the other equity-based indices leading higher.

If a steepening yield curve is to be found, the we would note the TNX.X and DAILY R1 and WEEKLY Pivot resitance, while a likely flattening would take place should the 10-year yield ($TNX.X) gravitate lower to its DAILY S1/MONTHLY S1 correlation.

As usually found... the BIX.X become the "swing" sector.

Doesn't today's trade look like it was largely computer driven? How can humans alone create some many correlations?

Did anyone note the BEARISH DIVERGENCE today in regards to the TRIN, especially in regards to the closing a/d lines?

For me, that creates the observation of the same "pressure" or "tension" I feel based on various intra-day trade.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/12/20,  6:13:34 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives