Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  OI Technical Staff   12/14/20,  6:07:17 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  5:57:29 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  4:15:37 PM
AGP announcing 2:1 split

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  4:13:50 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Swing trade speculative bullish call for two (2) RIMM Dec. $100 calls (RUP-LE) at $2.60, no stop, target of $110. (Doesn't look likely by Friday's expiration in my opinion, so will try and salvage what I can on any bounce, or new news/analysis)

Stopped out of carryover day trade bullish in the QQQQ at $40.40 ($0.11, or +0.27%) RIMM "helped" a bull to $40.52, then "hurt" a bull back to $40.40 from what I observed today.

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  4:11:44 PM
RIMM I am getting a lot of email questions about RIMM and the editors play from last week. I do not believe anything has changed and the play should continue as scripted. The verdict was mixed but contained some positives for RIMM. I expect the dip to be bought once RIMM gives a more comprehensive statement. Remember, RIMM has escrowed the entire $58 million judgment from the earlier verdict. The worst case is already priced in. Analysts expect RIMM to settle out of court with NTP once this appeal was settled. I would like to see RIMM drop to $75 and stabilize. We could sell our puts there and then ride the rebound back up with the leap calls.

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  4:06:05 PM
PEGS warning for Q4

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  4:05:43 PM
TQNT warning for Q4

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:58:28 PM
Going into the last few minutes of the day, the $GHA.X, the GSTI Hardware Index, is negative for the day after having reached a new relative, multi-year high. That's a potential reversal signal, a key reversal day by some measures although I'm not certain it meets all the volume considerations, too.

RIMM is a component of the GHA, which may have distorted the trading pattern on the index, but there's always some reason behind a move like this.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:56:06 PM
Time to make a decision about holding over if you haven't already. The OEX has dropped back to the upper trendline on its broadening formation, leaving only an upper shadow behind piercing that upper trendline. This gives mixed signals. I wouldn't consider this a breakout with only a candle shadow left behind (if that's how the OEX closes), but neither is this a full-blown retreat. I don't think you have enough information here to be certain either way, so you're just gonna have to go with what's right for your trading account.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:52:43 PM
First trouble sign? Today, the GHA, a big mover that's been leaping higher and that's been a big driver of Nasdaq gains, climbed to a new relative high, to a new multi-year high. It has now dropped from that daily high. Yesterday's close was 318.96. The GHA is now at 319.05. Tech bulls do not want to see this Nasdaq leading sector close negative today after having reached a new relative high.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:42:47 PM
RIMM $87.26 -2.9% Link ... quick look at my speculative bullish call option play via current open MM profiles at this Link

At this point (where stock was trading before spike to $103), would look for exit on bounce back near $90. Maybe get $1.00.

From what I've been able to read regarding today's rulings, it isn't clear what the consequences will be, but I can only guess that RIMM will eventually have to pay royalty to NTP Inc.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:42:33 PM
Keltner resistance masses just over the OEX's current position. That hasn't stopped it all day from climbing, so we'll see now if anything has changed.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:41:40 PM
Just now, the TRAN found support on the top trendline off its former rising regression channel. It need to rise to a new high to confirm that bounce from support. The TRAN has been showing bearish price/MACD divergence all week, and today is no exception.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  3:32:17 PM
QQQQ is testing the 40.47 support level now, also lined up with 7200-tick SMA support.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:30:57 PM
Whatever else happens, bulls do not want to see the OEX turn negative by the end of the day after having reached a new high for the year. The same goes for some of the other indices reaching new relative highs today. The OEX is within striking distance of that possibility, although there's certainly nothing to suggest that it will do so. Some others appear to have climbed so high that the possibility is even more remote. If that should happen, though, and if you're in a bullish play, be aware that could signal a potential reversal. ("New market age" interpretation: a sideways move.)

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:26:49 PM
The OEX has joined some other indices and has now reached a few cents above its year high although it's drawn back now. The weekly Keltner chart shows a possibility of resistance being found in the 580 region while the daily chart dangles a bigger carrot in front of bulls' noses, a potential climb to 584.50. Much depends on today's close with that daily Keltner chart, however, with bulls needing to see the OEX close above 570.65 to keep that possibility alive.

As I mentioned earlier, intraday charts show Keltner breakouts on many time intervals, with this being a time now to follow the OEX higher with your stops, just enjoying your gains if you're in a bullish play. Following the OEX higher might be particularly important due to the current challenge of the year's high, a potentially important resistance level. easy, easy decision to make.) Make the decision that's right for you.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:25:54 PM
RIMM $85.20 -5% ... released for trade.

QQQQ $40.50

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:13:44 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:11:54 PM
QQQQ $40.50

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:11:34 PM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) alert! 545 +0.6% ... session high and breaking above reverse head/shoulder neckline.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  3:10:28 PM
Feb. gold has barely budged, and it's done so on very light volume of just 975 contracts, still holding at 437.30 here.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:08:51 PM
The SOX came within a point of its 200-sma, and is just below it now.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  3:08:44 PM
QQQQ failed from 40.60, with the 30 min channel rising again to its current 40.65. Once again, the bears have shown us nothing to suggest a shift in power from the bulls. 40.25 is new higher confluence support, and now lines up with the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms as well. 40.47 should act as light support on any pullback from here.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  3:06:00 PM
The OEX high has been $0.13 from the high of the year. We're seeing some natural hesitation near that high of the year. Tricky place here, and if you're long, I'd suggest that you have profit-protecting plans in place, but with Keltner channel breakouts across many time intervals, one plan is just to follow the OEX higher with your stops. Watch that 575.75 level, if reached.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:05:52 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  3:03:25 PM
MSTR - down -$9.00 on news that the President and CFO resigned to take over the same job at McAfee. Several brokers downgraded the stock saying the President was the motivating force in the dramatic turnaround from the disaster in 2000.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:03:00 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,204.57 .... BIG SQUEEEEEZE coming here.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  3:02:12 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 642.75 +0.74% ... does make its way to session high and its QCharts WEEKLY S2 (642.36)

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  2:58:30 PM
GE - The current market spike is brought to you by General Electric. They just affirmed estimates at the high end of their range and the stock exploded which pushed up all the indexes.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:57:38 PM
The OEX approaches the day's high . . . surpassed it as I typed. Watch for the 573.44 year's high as next potential resistance, with 575.75 above that a place where bulls should have plans for protecting profits.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:57:35 PM
Volume is rising with price. Next resistance is at 40.60, where 30 and 60 min keltner resistance line up for QQQQ.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:56:56 PM
QQQQ $40.51

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:56:29 PM
The SOX is now about a point and a half away from the 200-sma at 434.93.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:54:12 PM
Support at the symmetrical triangle (and ascending trendline off the 12/09 high) held. The OEX has broken above the triangle's upper trendline now.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:50:59 PM
You have to dial down to a one-minute chart to see it clearly, but the OEX has narrowed into a symmetrical triangle post-FOMC, and now heads down to test the lower support.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:45:20 PM
QQQQ $40.40

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:44:39 PM
Bonds continue to firm, with TNX now negative, -.8 bps at 4.143%.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:43:39 PM
QQQQ just bounced again, setting up a rough double bottom in the 40.35 area. A move above 40.47 on high volume could attract the buybots within the expanding range of the 30 min channel.

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  2:41:29 PM
SYMC continuing to get crushed on the Veritas news. Now down -$5.00. Symantec has been on a nearly vertical ramp and split its stock 2:1 a little more than a week ago. The post split profit taking took on an added sense of urgency when the $13 billion deal was rumored.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:40:45 PM
Post FOMC-meeting, the OEX first burst above its short-term ascending regression channel, then broke below it and now is back inside it, so I'm going to treat the regression channel as if it's intact and as if its boundaries still count. The bottom boundary is at 571.00, with a drop out of the channel to be confirmed by a drop below the 570.75 post-FOMC low. The top of the channel is at about 572. The ascending trendline off the 12/09 low is now at about the level of that post-FOMC low.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:34:47 PM
No WEEKLY R2s at this point OEX 571.40 +0.17% came closest at 572.34 (WEEKLY R2 572.37)

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:31:18 PM
The TRAN appeared to break down out of its bearish rising wedge, but instead it was just broadening the formation into an ascending regression channel. Bottom support is now at about 3740 with the TRAN dropping down toward that support as I type.

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  2:27:12 PM
Complete Fed statement: Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:25:58 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,201.43

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:25:19 PM
Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:24:47 PM
The apex held for QQQQ- the trendlines even caught the lower doji tail: Link

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:24:24 PM
Altogether, this is so far a rather mild reaction as post-FOMC meeting reactions go, don't you think?

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:24:02 PM
5-30 year spread ... -0.09 .... QQQQ $40.40. Post-FOMC high/low for QQQQ has been $40.52-$40.33.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:23:14 PM
Advdec line dropping, but so far still maintaining the ascending trendline off the day's low. Just barely, though.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:23:06 PM
RIMM $93.00 ... still halted

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:21:59 PM
QQQQ just let go from a spike to 40.52, currently retesting QQQQ penant apex support at 40.35-.37.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:21:36 PM
Bullish day trade stop alert for the QQQQ $40.40.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:21:28 PM
The OEX has pulled back slightly from its test of the top trendline of its broadening formation, but hovers near that level.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:20:33 PM
TNX is falling slightly, down to a .4 bp gain at 4.155% and into the 4.14-4.16% confluence zone.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:20:19 PM
The SOX approaches its 200-sma at 434.92, with the SOX at 432.33, not yet at its day's high.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:19:46 PM
Buy Program Premium

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:19:39 PM
New session highs printing here, with QQQQ reaching for combined channel resistance at 40.54. Those levels will rise if price can hold above the 40.47 level here.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:19:24 PM
QQQQ $40.52 ... edges to session high

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:18:29 PM
5-30 year spread (unch)

QQQQ $40.45

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:18:23 PM
QQQQ chopping sideways, currently 40.45. No change in volume.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:16:06 PM
QQQQ update at this Link . 30 min cycle support 40.35, resistance 40.53.

  Jim Brown   12/14/20,  2:16:04 PM
Alert - Fed raises rates +25 basis points.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:15:25 PM
The OEX is at the top trendline of its broadening formation. Year's high is 573.44.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:15:16 PM
Buy program premium ...

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:14:59 PM
Bonds remain soft, TNX currently up 1.4 bps at 4.165%. 4.14%-4.16% is key confluence support.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:14:51 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,659 +0.2% ... new session high

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:11:56 PM
The OEX's spike took it right back to Keltner resistance without the OEX ever having touched that midline on the three-minute chart. Shouldn't have happened in that order according to the usual behavior of the OEX with respect to its Keltner charts, but that's what I mean about technical analysis not working particularly well in this environment.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  2:09:11 PM
QQQQ $40.47 ... here's my day trader's chart with added upper 5-MRT as well as QCharts' DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot levels.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:06:59 PM
Ah, Linda, that muse has been on strike recently. Was thinking about that myself last night.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:06:28 PM
Quotetracker users can hit Shift-CTRL-H to remove the highest spike in view on the intraday live charts.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  2:06:02 PM
Jonathan, what happened to those vignettes you used to write on FOMC days, to keep us entertained while markets flat-lined going into the meetings?

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  2:05:12 PM
QQQ holding 40.42. The bad tick scattered my keltner channels, and I'm trying to clean up the chart.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:58:28 PM
5-10 spread -0.03 .... QQQQ $40.42.

Curve is flat. Only reason to be bidding the QQQQ at this point is to "thin" the curve would steepen. (my thoughts at least).

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:56:39 PM
5-30 year spread -0.08 .... QQQQ $40.42

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:53:47 PM
QQQQ bad tick alert .... bad tick at $41.00, but take some notes here.

If YIELD curve should unwind and steepend on FOMC news, that could be where the Q's are headed.

bulls need the break above DAILY R1/WEEKLY R1 correlations, with WEEKLY R2 at $41.15.

Note: $41.00 .... does this look like a "typo" considering current level of trade, or is a program being set up?

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:52:42 PM
QQQQ day trade update alert ... Keep stop at $40.40, but cancel order to sell the bullish target of $40.52 at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:51:07 PM
QQQQ $40.42 +0.34% ....

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:49:53 PM
RIMM $92.97 +3.23% ... still halted. Confusion over lower court comments and appeal court comments.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  1:48:01 PM
Feb. gold remains weak, 70 cents above its current low of 436.60. The miners are down as well, HUI -1.6% at 213.9 and XAU -1.52% at 98.28. Euros and CAD futures have strengthened slightly since this morning, however- a somewhat mixed picture, but the general theme is relative strength in the USD so far today.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  1:47:37 PM
Before reading this, realize that sentiment-related issues are going to trump technical observations. It looks to me from observation of the Keltner charts that the OEX has begun to work its way down toward mid-channel support now, at least on the three-minute chart, with mid-channel support rising rapidly to meet it. That mid-channel support is now at about 570.43, with further support near 570.80, so the OEX might find at least short-term support in that area. I had expected the OEX to establish an equilibrium position with respect to the Keltner charts ahead of the FOMC meeting. An equilibrium position occurs when all Keltner channels are aligned around that mid-channel level. When in an equilibrium position, the OEX tends to move back and forth in a tight range, with oscillators flattening and with the OEX moving quite easily across channel lines aligned in the middle. It's usually a prelude to a breakout, but often difficult to tell which direction that breakout might take the OEX. Because of that expectation, I'd thought that the OEX might drift down to test the rising mid-channel level about an hour ago (see my 11:51 post), the two meeting someplace in the middle. That may not happen except on the three-minute chart.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  1:45:15 PM
QQQ continues to hold north of the 40.37-.40 support. A short cycle downphase has kicked off, stalling the 30 minute cycle upphase for the second time today. Key support below 40.37 remains 40.25 and 40.10, and I will remain unconvinced by any selling (short of a vertical drop) above that 40.10 level. Currently, volume is very light, and the market's entered a holding pattern.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  1:30:05 PM
The SOX is still near the top of last week's gap, still below the 200-sma but still well within striking distance of that MA. I could have typed these same words at almost any time this morning.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  1:18:02 PM
The TRAN's climb today has a definite (Dare I append the usual "bearish"?) rising wedge shape. Those bearish rising wedges have not always held the same bearish connotation lately and particularly when watching the TRAN, but the formation does allow us to watch for an upside breakout or a breakdown. The trendlines now are at about 3736 and 3743.50.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:13:48 PM
RIMM .... I've got to get the 01:00 Update written.

Should RIMM open at/above $104, THEN SELL one (1) of the Dec. $100 calls.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  1:12:43 PM
If the current pullback is to qualify as a bull flag, it would look best to hold above 40.40, 40.37 at the outside. Below that level for 5-10 minutes, the upturn in the 30 minute cycle will abort and would likely prove to be whipsaw, confirmed by a move below 40.25.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:12:06 PM
RIMM $93.00 +3.23% ... halted ... news pending.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  1:11:45 PM
I agree with Mark's 13:08 post on the Futures side.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:11:31 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  1:05:23 PM
QQQQ chart updated at this Link . Sure enough, the 30 min channel has resumed its upward march, with resistance up to 40.55.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  1:04:27 PM
Each push above the Keltner resistance at the top of the three-minute chart penetrates that resistance to a lesser degree. This is bearish resistance, Keltner style, but anything we're seeing on the charts is likely to overrun by the intentions of big-money people. Just wish we knew what those were.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  1:03:53 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:57:35 PM
Time Warner (TWX) continues to run following its recent breakout from the $15.50-18.00 trading range. Today's gain follows coverage from BAC with a "buy". Watch to see if TWX can breakout over major resistance at $20.00.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  12:56:38 PM
Whether the Keltner channels are configured in a way that usually goes along with a park-the-index mode or not, big-money people have been successful in parking the OEX just beneath the top trendline of the OEX's broadening formation. If I've had some questions about whether the broadening formation is valid, and of course we should all question our conclusions, this action is affirming the importance of that trendline.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:53:29 PM
Bulls can keep an eye on Apollo Group (APOL). The stock looks overbought from its November rebound but shares have been churning sideways between support at the 200-dma and resistance at $85.00. A breakout over $85.75 could put shorts on the run again.

Watch out for earnings on December 16th. Analysts are looking for 57 cents a share.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:52:22 PM
RIMM $97.69 +8.4% ... news hitting that company wins new hearing in blackberry case.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:50:19 PM
Semiconductor stock SLAB is showing plenty of strength up 9.85% as it cracks round-number resistance at $35.00 but there is more resistance near $37.50 and its exponential 200-dma.

The stock is running on a "buy" rating from Smith Barney this morning.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:44:48 PM
CNBC reporting that Kraft (KFT) is raising prices on its Maxwell house brand coffee by 14%.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:39:12 PM
Video game maker Electronic Arts (ERTS) has been soaring the last few days. The stock has run from $55.70 to $60.75 in three sessions. Today's 5.5% gain comes on massive volume following big news in the video game sector. ERTS is the 800 lbs. gorilla in the industry and they just solidified their position by signing a 5-year exclusive deal with the NFL to make pro football video games. One analyst firm is suggesting that ERTS will be able to charge $60 for they're upcoming Madden football games. Normally, new games came out at $49 but the recent release of Doom 3 at $55 has shown that consumers are willing to pay up for premium titles.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:38:53 PM
RIMM $99.59 +10.6% ... here's a day trader's chart I slapped together at this Link

QQQQ $40.44

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  12:35:48 PM
The OEX's ascending trendline off the 10/9 low has now risen to about 570.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  12:34:42 PM
Upper 30 and 60 min Keltner channel resistance on the charts posted earlier held back the surge above pennant resistance for QQQQ, but unless bears can drill the price back below 40.37 (which currently coincides with 7200-tick SMA support as well), those resistance levels will begin to rise as the channels begin to follow the price higher.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:33:56 PM
Speaking of Google (GOOG) the stock appears to be coiling for a big breakout (up or down) but the MACD would suggest a rally higher soon.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:33:11 PM
Shopping.com Ltd (SHOP) is up 3.4% to $27.40 following yesterday's news about an advertising deal with GOOG.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:31:02 PM
Schwab (SCH) says they'll beat their Q4 estimates if trading volume remains strong. Shares are up 1.4% today and up four days in a row to $11.67.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:29:14 PM
RIMM $98.23 +9% .... only news I can find for today is at company's web page Link but I believe this was out and not responsible for the spike from $87.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  12:27:15 PM
I know that Marc has mentioned the Nasdaq's climb above this year's high of 2152.12 on the Futures side of the Monitor, but wanted to mention that breakout on this side, too, for the benefit of those who don't read both sides. (I think you're missing out on a lot of great information if you don't, by the way.) As Marc says, bears don't want to see a close above that level today.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:26:34 PM
RIMM $97.63 +8% ... "coiling" around its WEEKLY R2. Day trader needs CNBC to pick up the story.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:23:36 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert .... for the QQQQ $40.48 +0.5% ... to $40.40.

Session high has been $40.51, a penny from my bullish target.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  12:22:35 PM
The OEX actually has a 575.75 upside target predicted by a continuation-form inverse H&S seen on its 15-minute chart. It broke above the neckline late yesterday afternoon after piercing it yesterday morning and falling back. However, I don't put strong trust in continuation-form inverse H&S's, especially when they come in the midst of a consolidation zone, as this one did. I'm really paying more attention to 571.90, the site of the upper trendline of the broadening formation, and 573.44, the year's high, and watching them as potential resistance zones. Keep that 575.75 upside target on your radar screen, however. If in a bullish play and brave enough to hold as we head into the FOMC meeting results, and if the OEX gets past those other two levels, have a profit-plan in mind as that upside target is reached.

As I type, the OEX rises to challenge that upper trendline of the broadening formation.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  12:16:54 PM
Once again, the OEX punched through the Keltner resistance gathering overhead, but almost immediately turns slightly lower again. It hasn't quite tugged free of that resistance near 571.30 just yet.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:15:39 PM
OI call play OSK is showing strength and breaking through round-number resistance at $65.00.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  12:15:09 PM
Stepping away for 10 minutes.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:14:47 PM
IBM also looks ready to move with today's bounce from minor support at $96.00.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:13:58 PM
The consolidation in OI call play EBAY is narrowing just in time for the FOMC meeting. My guess would be to look for a breakout one way or the other after the FOMC news if not this afternoon then probably tomorrow. (my bias is still upward for EBAY)

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:11:30 PM
Swing trade speculative call option alert ... taking two (2) of the RIMM Dec. 100 calls (RUP-LE) at the offer of $2.60, target $110 on the stock. RIMM $98.00 here.

I've taken a "5-mrt" from that 5-minute interval spike from $87.23 to $103.56.

BLUE #2 at $119.83.

Not picking up any news at this time.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  12:11:01 PM
QQQQ pennant update at this Link . 40.37-.40 should now act as support.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:10:10 PM
Coal stock and OI call play ARLP is cracking its short-term trend of lower highs with today's 2.3% gain. The MACD is nearing a new buy signal.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  12:09:17 PM
Here comes the volume.

  James Brown   12/14/20,  12:08:10 PM
Software stock BEAS is up 4.5% and gapping above major resistance at $9.00 and its simple 200-dma. This looks like a potential bullish entry point.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:07:15 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  12:06:10 PM
Keltner resistance looks as if it's firming up even more on OEX 3- and 7-minute charts. (See my 11:51 post.)

  Tab Gilles   12/14/20,  12:03:24 PM
I'm seeing several overbought sell signals on the NDX. Not to say they cannot go higher, however, caution is warranted. The INDU is acting just as I expected, still targeting 10,750 on the Dow. Basically, we can see a rally into the New Year then a round of profit taking.

MUR- Murphy Oil has bounced off trend and 150-ema, watching MACD for crossover.

(See attached charts.) Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:03:12 PM
RIMM $96.02 +6% ... after spike to $103.56. Volume heavy.

WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $82.97, 85.66, Pivot = 90.27, 92.97, 97.57.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  12:01:42 PM
QQQQ $40.39 (see 11:59:19 and RIMM action)

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  12:00:21 PM
QQQQ is ticking above upper pennant resistance on the chart posted earlier. A break above the 40.43 accompanied by a surge in volume would be a breakout on this pattern. Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  11:59:19 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) alert $97.84 +8% ... surges $10 in last minute from $87.

"Has to be" the court/patent decision.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  11:51:10 AM
Are we starting the sideways, park-it-under-the-year's-high action on the OEX? Could be, although Keltner channels suggest otherwise. The OEX is currently parked at upper Keltner resistance, when those park-it-somewhere actions usually occur at the mid-channel level. While it's possible for the OEX to trade sideways while mid-channel support catches up to it, this suggests at least one more move ahead of any successful parking, but it doesn't suggest which direction it will be. Keltner resistance looks significant across many time frames, but the OEX has been bulldozing through similar setups all morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  11:49:28 AM
Nymex crude is up .225 ere at 41.225. Treasuries remain soft, with the TNX up 2.9 bps at 4.18%, and is holding near the lows at 437.40 currently.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  11:47:18 AM
I made the mistake of looking at the SPX to judge reaction of equities to changes in the dollar over the last month, and that same relationship didn't always hold with the Nasdaq. Therefore, I deleted my previous post about the actions of the dollar and equities. However, the truth remains that this big move in currency markets today could portend a big move in equities, too, but that crude prices and bond prices must also be factored into the mix.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  11:35:39 AM
Bears better hope that the current pennant coiling up on QQQQ Link doesn't play out as the continuation pattern that most pennants do- a move above 40.40-.43 on volume would reignite yesterday afternoon's ascent.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  11:23:02 AM
Yes Linda. And the CAD is down 1% to the mid .80s, euros down .37% at 1.329 currently (basis March 05 contracts on Globex).

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  11:21:18 AM
Big moves going on in the currency markets right now, at least with the dollar against the yen (dollar gaining). I'm not certain how that will impact our markets, but I would expect some impact, perhaps not to be seen until after the FOMC decision.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  11:14:22 AM
QQQQ has failed from a lower high on the bounce below 40.40, and the next goal for bears is to break 40.25 support to set up a test of the 40.10-.15 level. With volume this light, the potential for a false break is greater, despite the 30 minute cycle bias building to the downside.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  11:12:06 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  11:10:19 AM
The advdec line is still not acting particularly bullishly. It's not doing much of anything.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  11:04:39 AM
The SOX seems stuck at the top of the gap from last week, unable to maintain values above that gap's top level.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  11:04:08 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  11:03:04 AM
Volume has absolutely evaporated here on QQQQ in the past 20 minutes, with 18.9M shares traded so far today.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  10:56:12 AM
The advdec line is still not acting the way bulls would like.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  10:42:45 AM
The SOX has still not been able to break above its 200-sma.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  10:41:44 AM
The TRAN just broke through to a new day's high.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  10:39:09 AM
Support came at 40.25 on a small doji spike, confirming my earlier bullish comments on QQQQ. Bulls would prefer to see a higher high on the current bounce, failing which the topping 30 min cycle should begin to weaken. A failure below 40.40 will set up a retest of 40.25, which would be more likely to break. However, 40.10-.15 is stronger support, lined up with current 60 min channel support.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  10:34:19 AM
The OEX came close to the upper trendline of its broadening formation, but didn't touch it. Before important economic releases, an effort is often made to park the OEX (and other indices) just under important resistance or above important support, and an effort may already be underway to park the OEX just below that trendline and the year's high at 573.44. There's bearish divergence on the intraday charts, however, divergence that began building yesterday. Obviously, the OEX can and does continue higher while that divergence builds, expecially when it's in trending mode, but keep an eye on this and also on the advdec line, beginning to roll over now. TRIN climbs but not alarmingly so, and it's not low enough to be bullish on a contrarian basis, either, so there's not much evidence to support a hit-it-with-it-bearish-entry action, either. At about 569.10, the OEX would break through an ascending trendline off the 12/09 low, but until and unless it does that, it's maintaining that ascending trendline. Until and unless it breaks above the year's high, it's in danger of finding resistance there.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  10:23:54 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $44.02 +2.99% Link ... higher after board of directors authorized an increase in the company's share repurchase program to 30 million shares from 20 million shares. FRX has repurchased about 11.4 million since initial program was announced in July.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  10:21:21 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  10:15:09 AM
VIX.X 12.45 -0.71% .... yesterday morning's "bad ticks" had me calculating my own DAILY Pivot levels ..

11.99, 12.27, Piv = 12.40, 12.68, 12.81

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  10:12:02 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Slight steepening of curve from 5-10, then flat to 30.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  10:11:35 AM
The VXO is currently above yesterday's and Friday's entire range, but is also off the day's high, established in the first 15-minutes of trading. It's always difficult during opex week to establish how much of the movement of the volatility indices is due to opex activities.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  10:07:53 AM
The DOW is also near the top of its broadening formation, with the top trendline crossing now at about 10,665-10,668.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  10:04:57 AM
Volume is declining on the current consolidation. The short cycle oscillators are trending in overbought as the 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators continue higher. The preliminary daily cycle buy signals are also in agreement to the upside, making this prime time for bulls. While it's always brightest before the dusk, bears will watn to see a break below 40.25 to set up a retest of the 40.10-.15 level at minimum. Until at least 40.10 is broken, the benefit of the doubt goes clearly to the bulls.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  10:01:59 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  9:59:43 AM
The Fed has announced a 3.75B 2-day repo, which results in a 3B net drain from the open market desk.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:59:05 AM
The OEX is less than a point away from the top of its broadening formation, just a little more than two points away from its January high of 573.44.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:58:35 AM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 119.70 +1.3% ... nice little pop going here after recent pullback into my fitted/conventional retracement "zone of support" from 115-118.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:56:28 AM
Oil Service (OSX.X) 121.92 +1.49% ... reclaimes both its 50-day SMA (119.84) and 21-day SMA (121.02).

MACD trying to curl higher just above zero.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:55:08 AM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 541.60 (unch)

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:53:46 AM
The SOX is above its converging 30-sma and 200-ema's, and is now zooming up toward its 200-sma at 434.92, with the SOX currently at 431.75. A move above the 200-sma suggests a move toward the top of the ascending regression channel the SOX established in early September, with the top now at about 456.00. There's a potential rough H&S on the SOX's daily chart with the right-shoulder area perhaps just above the 200-sma, however, so watch for a potential fake-out move above the 200-sma, to be reversed as the SOX rounds down into a right shoulder. There was bearish price/oscillator divergence as the head was formed in early December.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:53:12 AM
Alcoa (AA) $31.13 -3.65% Link ... early drag on Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,630 -0.08% after JP Morgan downgrade to "neutral" from "overweight."

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:51:00 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $22.85 +0.97% Link ... WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $20.56, $21.64, Piv = $23.23, $24.31, $25.90.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:48:41 AM
SOX.X 431.70 +1.54% ... makes a decent move above WEEKLY Pivot (429.36)

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:48:24 AM
That Keltner configuration on the three-minute OEX chart is being put to the test. A rise much above this would rearrange the Keltner lines and suggest a touch of the upper trendline on the broadening formation remains possible before any retracement, no matter how small. May be happening as I type.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  9:46:00 AM
The 30 and 60 min cycle channel for QQQ continue to point north despite the weak volume so far- just a continuation of yesterday's action. 60 min channel support is up to 40.08, 30 min at 40.17. Upper 30 min channel resistance, also rising, has made it to 40.45.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:44:44 AM
Dialing down to a three-minute Keltner chart, I see that resistance looks much stronger than support, suggesting that it's more likely for the OEX to decline (probably soon) than to rise much beyond 570.46. A strong surge higher will undo that configuration, of course, and prove that today is another of those days when technical analysis is not your best tool to use. Those are days when sentiment weighs heavier, and bullish sentiment may still be weighing heavier in this still-trending-higher market. The decline may not be deep, if it occurs, with potential support again near 569.50-569.70, and then again at 568.50-568.90. Because this information is based on a short-term chart, these are short-term predictions only, and not a guide for the whole day's action.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:39:55 AM
Pulte Homes (PHM) $59.58 -1.12% ....

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:39:03 AM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.00 +1.28% ....

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:39:02 AM
The OEX could not push above yesterday's high and drifts back to retest that 569.50 support.

Remember to trade with caution today as we have our FOMC meeting today and then Japan's much-watched tankan survey will be released tonight. There's much to impact the global markets.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:35:29 AM
5-30 year spread ... +0.02 .... QQQQ $40.31

Very early, but may see a narrow and sideways trade into FOMC this afternoon.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:34:26 AM
The OEX has closed this morning's gap, finding support above 569.50. The 15-minute Keltner channels suggest potential upside resistance at 571.31, near the 571.90 location of the upper trendling of the broadening formation on the daily chart.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:32:23 AM
The SOX rises right away to test its converging 30-sma and 200-ema, with those averages at 427.63 and 426.45, respectively. As I type, it's between the two, at 426.88.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  9:31:44 AM
Session high for Nymex crude here at 41.45. Gold has sunk lower, down 1.50 at 438.70 currently. QQQQ has rising 7200 tick SMA support at 40.23 currently, with 30 min channel support at 40.15.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:31:20 AM
The OEX falls straight toward that 569.50 area, but holds a little above it as I type.

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:28:56 AM
5-year ($FVX.X) is up 2.6 bp at 3.564% ...

10-year ($TNX.X) is up 2.7 bp at 4.178% ...

30-year ($TYX.X) is up 2.2 bp at 4.829% ...

  Jeff Bailey   12/14/20,  9:27:22 AM
5-30 year spread is -0.05 .... QQQQ $40.26

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  9:26:50 AM
Here's part of my post from last night: Keltner channels suggested the possibility of a pullback to 569.50 either before or after that test [of the top, broadening trendline, if it occurs]. A fall much below 569.50 would question the ability of the OEX to obtain that expanding formation's upper boundary, however. As I type, it looks as if that pullback may be first on order this morning, and we'll see what happens then. If the pullback is shallow, that keeps the Keltner alignment as it had been and keeps alive the possibility that the OEX may rise to test the top trendline of the broadening formation. Traditionally, any third approach to the top trendline is doomed to failure, but the OEX's pricing patterns haven't been following that traditional outcome with any regularity. Traditionally, the failure of the third attempt to reach the upper trendline would be a prelude to a rollover and an eventual break through the bottom trendline.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  9:15:35 AM



  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  8:40:10 AM
Bonds have weakened on the balance of trade data, with TNX up 2.6 bps to 4.177%. Equities have inched higher, with QQQQ up .05 to 40.33 currently.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  8:39:07 AM

8:30am U.S. OCT. IMPORTS WIDEN 3.4% TO RECORD $153.5 BLN




  Jonathan Levinson   12/14/20,  7:47:31 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1200.75, NQ 1628, YM 10642 and QQQQ flat at 40.28. Gold is up 20 cents to 440.40, silver flat at 6.82, ten year notes down .062 to 112.891 and crude oil up 17.5 cents to 41.175.

We await the 8:30 release of the Oct. trade balance, est. -53B, and at 9:15, industrial production and capacity utilization, est. .2% and 77.8% respectively.

  Linda Piazza   12/14/20,  7:00:21 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei climbed overnight ahead of the U.S. FOMC meeting and Japan's tankan survey. Other Asian markets mostly gained, but European markets turn in mixed performances this morning. Our futures did not gain as Asian markets did and turned down near the open of European markets, but attempt a recovery as this report is prepared. As of 6:52 EST, gold was unchanged, and crude, up $0.11. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

All those investors who sold positions last Friday ahead of this week's tankan survey must have reconsidered early this week. The Nikkei climbed all day Tuesday, closing higher by 126.33 points or 1.17%, at 10,915.58. One article credits a rise in futures with triggering arbitrage stock buying. Stock-specific news helped generate enthusiasm. Sony gained after the company forged a pact with Samsung to share patents. Canon raised expectations for group net profit. Tokyo Electron led gainers after Moody's Investors Service said its credit rating would probably advance over time, with that news released Monday after the bell.

Most other Asian markets also saw gains. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.52%. South Korea's Samsung gained as a result of its pact with Sony. The Kospi gained 0.62%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.69%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.13%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.16%, however.

European markets turn in mixed performances. In the U.K., November's CPI rose 1.5% against expectations of a smaller increase, with rising energy costs one factor behind the increase. Vodafone Group turns lower after a Goldman Sachs downgrade to an in-line rating. Bank HBOS raised expectations and saw strong gains.

Continental Europe saw an economic release this morning, too, of Western European passenger car registrations. Those registrations rose 9.5%, a good sign, the trade association thought, although some of the gain was attributable to seasonal buying patterns. Goldman Sachs also raised the European auto manufacturing sector to a neutral rating. That helped the sector although Goldman Sachs' accompanying statement remained cautious. Zurich Financial agreed to settle litigation involving a U.S. nursing home suit, sending the company's stock higher in Swiss trading.

As of 6:52 EST, the FTSE 100 had lost 21.70 points or 0.46%, to trade at 4,715.10. The CAC 40 was flat, up 2.08 points or 0.05%, at 3,808.02. The DAX posted a gain of 9.73 points or 0.23%, to trade at 4,228.97.

  Linda Piazza   12/13/20,  9:38:17 PM
Today the OEX followed the example of the TRAN and broke above the short-term ascending regression channel in which it had been climbing. For the TRAN, that break was also a break above a descending trendline established off the 12/02 high.

Rather than a descending trendline, the OEX has an ascending one that began forming early in November. That upper trendline is part of a broadening formation. The OEX's breakout did not result in a test of the upper trendline. At least, it hasn't yet. Traditionally, that upper trendline should not be touched again after the two approaches that established the trendline. The OEX should roll over on the third approach before that test. The OEX just might not have read those technical analysis texts, however. Over the last couple of years, it's tended to buck the traditional way of doing things, if I can be allowed a little anthropomorphism.

The way the Keltner channels were set up at the end of the day, the OEX did look as if it was going to challenge the top of that broadening formation, now at about 571.90, or at least closely approach them. Keltner channels suggested the possibility of a pullback to 569.50 either before or after that test. A fall much below 569.50 would question the ability of the OEX to obtain that expanding formation's upper boundary, however.

Remember that on a breakout above the top of the formation, the OEX will soon hit the 573.44 January high. Watch for the possibility that the OEX will this once follow tradition and roll down ahead of a third touch of that upper trendline. Watch for a Nasdaq test of its 2152.12 high from January, now only a few points away, to see how the Nasdaq reacts on that test, and also watch for a Dow test of its own broadening formation, with the upper boundary now at about 10,670. Barring a strong breakout or breakdown on the OEX and hopefully on more than one index, I would trade carefully ahead of the FOMC meeting. And of Japan's tankan report, for that matter.

  OI Technical Staff   12/13/20,  7:45:53 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.


Market Monitor Archives