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  OI Technical Staff   12/19/20,  5:13:54 AM

Click here for bonus info: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  5:31:58 PM
Tab ... might want to wait and see if the stock can show a 3-box reversal and stabilize a little. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  4:57:42 PM
Tell'm Cramer ... thought James Cramer was going to pop his cork when talking about how high risk the "COX-2" drug exposure might be and that some MRK/PFE bulls may not realize (nor the company's CEOs) what the risks might be.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  4:44:57 PM
News Corp. (NWS.A) $18.65 +2.41% ... 284.96 million shares with addition to S&P 500.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  4:43:30 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.80 -10.97% ... racks up 289.5 million shares

Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (AMEX:PPH) $71.54 -2.81% a heavy 4.3 million shares

and who knows what else PFE a composition of.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/17/20,  4:15:17 PM
The NYSE volume is nearing 3 billion shares

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/17/20,  4:14:25 PM
Closing volume across all markets has pushed the totals to more than 5.5 billion shares and it should go higher once all the market on close trades have settled.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  4:09:44 PM
Current Open MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Closed out both the five (5) Short Dec. $25 put (PFE-XE) at $0.50 (-$0.10, or -42.86%) and the five (5) Long PFE Jan. $25 Puts (PFE-ME) at $1.30 ($0.95, or +271.43%)

Will Exercise the fourteen (14) JDSU Dec. $3.00 calls (UQD-LG) for $3.00. Since we paid $0.75, Cost basis becomes $3.75. Stop becomes $2.90, target $4.50.

PAYX puts, NTES puts and RIMM calls expire worthless.

This week's CLOSED trades at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  4:02:47 PM
If the current 567.65 level is the settlement level for the OEX this afternoon, there was no new weekly closing high for the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  3:57:10 PM
I've been studying weekly charts to see if I can garner any specific information from them. On the weekly chart, that broadening formation doesn't look so much like a broadening formation. It looks like a rising flag formation. On a weekly basis, the OEX has only pierced the top trendline, with candle bodies all forming below it. However, January's closing high was 568.45, and if the OEX can be held above that level into the close, we will have seen a new weekly closing high for the OEX. I would bet that's a goal and has been a goal today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  3:52:29 PM
Vioxx, and their older version, Anaprox were for me as well. Nothing took the edge off a blown muscle like those did with occassional use.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  3:51:21 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $85.45 +2.87% ... any odds on $102.60 by the close?

I contemplated closing out the PFE Dec. $25 puts (PFE-XE) yesterday, but thought.... what are the odds of further bad news regarding COX-2 drugs before Friday's close?

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/17/20,  3:50:41 PM
I considered refilling my Celebrex today just in case. I only use it a couple times a month but it is a wonder drug for me.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  3:48:13 PM
I agree with Jim. For that matter, my mom (always an extreme case) is still hoarding the few remaining Vioxx she has left. I don't know if she's buying MRK, though ;)

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/17/20,  3:45:28 PM
Tab, I believe PFE is a buy because the Celebrex news today was only in dosages 2-8 times the normal amount. PFE is the biggest drug company with a strong portfolio and new drugs coming. The odds they will have to take Celebrex off the market are very low. There are more deaths blamed on asprin each year than most drugs. It is all in how you take it and PFE has studies covering 1.4 million patients taking the normal dose that show no risk. However, I thought it was a buy at $28 as well so I would let it settle for a couple more days. Just my opinion.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/17/20,  3:41:07 PM
Is PFE a buy? Link Everyone is hating the drug stocks now. Should one be the contrarian and has all the bad news been factored into the price?

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/17/20,  3:39:02 PM
Check out this SPX:TNX chart: Link If the TNX rises to 5% at the current 1200 SPX that would be a 24xs level. Hmmm???

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/17/20,  3:36:33 PM
S&P 500 additions at the close
ASN replaced CR
CBSS replaces WOR
NWS/a replaces DLX

S&P-400 Midcap
CR replaces PKS
DLX replaces DSS
STLD replaces SUP
WOR replaces CBSS

S&P-600 Small cap
SUP replaces STLD

Going into the NDX
XMSR, ADSK, LM, NTLI, NTI, MCIP, ERICY, SIRI

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  3:35:47 PM
A continuation-form inverse H&S can be found on the TRAN's 15-minute chart. There's reason not to trust these and I don't trust them to meet their upside targets, but I've seen a few work. The neckline is at the new descending trendline drawn off Wednesday's high. The TRAN pierced the original version of that trendline early this morning, but then dropped back below it, leaving only a candle shadow above it. I've redrawn the trendline to include that shadow, and it now crosses at about 3756.34, with the TRAN currently at 3751.02.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  3:34:08 PM
It looks like the 40.00 QQQQ level, which when adjusted for the QQQQ's dividend distribution to take place at the end of the month works out to 39.625, is going to continue to exert its hold over the price as we approach the end of op-ex week. Both the 30 and 60 min cycle channels are now flat as the price continues its sideways drift. Price is still net unchanged from today's premarket levels.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/17/20,  3:23:22 PM
From the Stock Traders Almanac "The Santa Claus Rally is scheduled to begin on December 23rd. We normally experience this short, sweet rally from the last 5 trading days of the year through the first 2 of the New Year. The S&P has averaged a 1.7% gain since 1969 but it is important to note though that when this reliable seasonality has failed to materialize, it has often been a harbinger of bear markets or sizeable corrections in the coming year."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  3:22:48 PM
The OEX touched that 570.17-570.60 Keltner resistance on the fifteen-minute chart. (See my 13:29 post.) I'm not sure whether it's through challenging that area or not. On the 15-minute chart, the early breakdown out of the bear flag left only candle shadows below the flag's supporting trendline, so it doesn't look like a breakdown on that interval's chart. That's why we need to see confirmations by moves to new significant lows, etc. The OEX is coming right back to test the lower trendline as I type, currently at about 568.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  3:15:53 PM
03:15 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  3:06:51 PM
The TRAN has recouped almost all of yesterday's losses and is now less than 20 points away from the 3770.55 intraday high achieved on Wednesday. For that matter, it's not that far from the May,1999 high of 3797.05 that preceded the long slide down into the bear-market low. Should be mucho resistance here.

Although the TRAN pushed up to 3770.55 intraday, it's been closing between 3733 and 3760 over the last three days while it completed an evening-star pattern. While the TRAN has not followed through on the reversal pattern, that zone might still provide resistance on closes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  3:05:48 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  3:04:16 PM
Do you have an alternate source for QQV? QCharts still shows 54.63, which is ridiculous.

So do PcQuote and Interactive Brokers, unfortunately. It would appear to be a problem with the exchange data, as all of the providers I follow are reporting the same numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  3:00:28 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.73 -11.18% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  2:56:10 PM
Housing futures CNBC discussion regarding the CME developing housing futures.... does sound like they will be regional. Not just one national contract.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  2:49:18 PM
The OEX is hitting Keltner resistance near 569.60.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  2:47:35 PM
At least you'll have a "fish that got away" story to tell tonight, Jeff. (See Jeff's 14:43 post.) FRX is moving right back into the neckline of yesterday's H&S, so you can hope that it will turn right around and zoom to a new low and you can feel good about missing that fish.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  2:46:17 PM
QQQQ needs to clear 39.60 for at least 10 minutes to turn the 30 and 60 min channels up from their current declining/flat orientation. QQQQ is currently back to its 9AM levels. A glofclap for Da Boyz could be in order, but the days not over yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  2:43:44 PM
Bullish day trade cancel order alert for Forest Labs (FRX) $45.98 -1.58%

Cancel 02:24:32 instruction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  2:41:20 PM
As the OEX consolidates, 15-minute Keltner support lines now flatten, trying to lend support to the OEX. (Well, they're not "trying" anything, but a little anthropomorphism makes the commentary a little more animated. As long as I know I'm doing it and you know I'm doing it, we won't tell our grammar teachers.) If that support down to 567.84 can hold, the OEX might attempt a climb higher. Otherwise, that 15-minute channel is set up to show a potential downside target to 564.63, below the 566.85 that the H&S had predicted.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  2:32:31 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $45.83 -1.86% ... :(

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  2:31:57 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.21 -12.93% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  2:31:24 PM
The TRAN pulls back. Into a right shoulder for an inverse H&S or as a prelude to a drop to a new low? Market watchers want to know, but that one-minute chart gives few clues. The TRAN is one of few holdouts today, refusing to give in wholly to that reversal signal that it confirmed yesterday. As the TRAN has been climbing this year, it's sometimes been somewhat resistant to following through on reversal signals. Sometimes it reversed long enough to retrace to the midline or bottom of its ascending regression channel and sometimes it just punched down the next day, sprang up immediately, and then proceeded to rally. Market bears would like to see a change in the TRAN's behavior, whether or not they're trading the transportation stocks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  2:24:32 PM
Day trade long setup alert .. for Forest Labs (FRX) $45.67 -2.2% ...

Let's go long on a dip back to $45.31, stop $45.10, target $46.45

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  2:24:03 PM
Despite the brief pop above 39.53, the lower high below 39.57 and the return to the lows is beginning to look like a bearish descending triangle above 39.45. A high volume break of that level should target descending 30 min support at 39.37 on the way to a test of 39.25 QQQQ.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/17/20,  2:22:44 PM
Bearish divergences appearing as WTIC rises. Link

Investors' Intelligence Bullish/Bearish spread at 41 very high. NASI declining, 10/20 ma on VXN sell. See linked charts. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  2:20:33 PM
Merck (MRK) $31.54 -0.78% .... staging a comeback.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  2:15:21 PM
The TRAN shows a potential inverse H&S at the bottom of its one-minute chart. The right shoulder isn't formed yet, but I mention it because the TRAN sometimes does away with the whole right-shoulder thing. This shows us that the bulls in transportation stocks are accumulating on dips, but whether sellers will overwhelm them or not is still to be determined when we see whether this formation confirms or is rejected.

When I saw this formation on the TRAN's chart, I went looking for one on the OEX's, and there is one. Its neckline has already been crossed if it drew it correctly, always difficult to determine with a roughly formed pattern, but there's not much upside potential from this formation alone. It would basically send the OEX back to the top of the former bear flag.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  2:14:19 PM
We now have a double bottom at 39.45, a triple bottom if we cound the 12PM dip to 39.47. QQQQ is back to declining 7200-tick resistance at 39.53.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  2:08:42 PM
QQQQ's back to the lows again, with 39.45 the current low above declining 30 and 60 min channel support at 39.40. Ten year bonds have recovered part of their losses, TNX currently up 4.7 bps at 4.211%. QQQQ volume is light, but at 75.3M shares so far compared with yesterday's 86M total, looks to be running heavier than yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  2:07:25 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  1:59:55 PM
Continuous Oil ($WTIC) ... conventional $0.25 box chart at this Link

Not updated for today's trade, but making note that the bullish vertical count hints at $54.00.

Updated bar chart with conventional (blue) and fitted 38.2% (pink) at this Link

Hmmmm..... You got to get it above $46.36 to have be "believing" in $54.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  1:58:59 PM
No lower low on the OEX just yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  1:56:12 PM
The OEX has broken down now out of the probable bear flag, and now approaches the 567.83 previous low of the day. It needs to drop significantly below that to avoid creating a double-bottom possibility. The 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that it could . . . significantly below.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  1:51:34 PM
The TRAN has dropped off the day's high, but it's still positive on the day. This isn't the follow-through that market bears wanted to see on the TRAN's evening-star pattern. Others, such as the SOX and Nasdaq, do show at least some followthrough.

When talking about candlestick patterns, the OEX's three-candle "Advance Block Bearish" formation completed yesterday certainly followed through with its bearishness. I'll have to look for that pattern more often.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  1:40:42 PM
The OEX did climb, but found resistance sooner than I expected. It's still contained within that probable bear flag formation, however, and could cycle up again through that formation. A breakdown below about 568.20 would suggest that the OEX is breaking down out of that bear flag, but on an opex Friday, bears would certainly want to see that confirmed rather quickly by a new low before they breathed too easily.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  1:39:08 PM
Intraday QQQQ chart updated at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  1:29:57 PM
I return to find the OEX not having yet achieved the 566.85 downside target from the confirmed H&S. (See my 10:13 post this morning and my 21:36 one last night.) As I type, the OEX attempts to steady, creating a higher low on the five and seven-minute charts. There was no bullish divergence as the higher low was created, but this looks like a potential bear flag forming. The arrangement of the Keltner lines on these charts suggest that the OEX might rise rather more easily over the very short term than decline if it can produce a 15-minute close over the Keltner line currently at 569.09, but that it's likely to encounter significant resistance again from 570.18-560.64 if it does.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  1:29:04 PM
Gold continues to hold the 443 level with silver up 1.26% to 6.815, a session high. But crude oil is more impressive, up 3.45% to 45.70 after hitting a high of 46.125. Bonds are bouncing off the lows, however, while QQQQ continues to burn time between 39.45-39.65, currently trading 39.56.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  1:12:30 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  1:07:41 PM
Another nominally lower low for QQQQ. 30 min channel support is now at 39.40, resistance 39.64. 60 min support just held at 39.46.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  1:02:40 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  12:59:07 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.04 -13.6% ... initial work has me looking for another LONG PUT near $26.36. Will consider going out to this summer expiration.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  12:56:04 PM
QQQQ is just now testing declining 7200 tick SMA resistance as the 30 min channel begins to flatten. If the op-ex 40.0 expiry theory is correct (adjusted for the QQQQ's divident payment today), we should see QQQQ close within a few pennies of the 39.60 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  12:36:16 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

I left the PFE options in place for any educational purpose. At 10:24 when I posted the initial PFE options, VIX.X was at about 12.35.

FRX now gets "drug down" with DRG.X weighting (compensate for PFE)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  12:33:13 PM
Session high for gold here at 443, third time this week testing these levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  12:32:49 PM
IB now has all the new QQQQ option symbols in the display. However, QCharts still has a problem with QQV, currently showing 54.63, up 36.17. And OptionVue seems lost, providing only partial answers on how to adjust positions in their options program.

All we needed was another technical challenge, right?

How big do you think the impact of the stock options expensing ruling will have on QQQQ? My initial guess is that it will knock it for a loop, at least during the first quarter. Opinion?

Dave, I agree with your impressions. I think that the ruling yesterday was the equivalent of an iceberg, but as Jeff noted at the time, CSCO barely twitched following the announcement. I've heard that there's a bill before the Senate that could impact the rules that will eventually govern, but it the meantime, the FASB's decision looks to me like a strong net bearish factor for those companies that have yet to begin expensing their options.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  12:27:41 PM
January Heating Oil (ho05f) $1.465 +6.06% (30-minute delayed) ... Trades 19.1% of fitted 38.2%. Strong move today.

Must be cold in the northeast

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  12:21:26 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  12:15:14 PM
After a nominally lower low, QQQQ is back above 39.50. Look for a move above 39.61 to turn the short cycle oscillators up from oversold. The bounce will need to clear that level to challenge the ongoing 30 min cycle downphase- otherwise, it should be a mere correction before the next test of the lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  12:07:53 PM
There goes 39.50, with 30 min channel support down to 39.42. TNX is currently up 3.1 bps at 4.215%, gold back to the highs at 441.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  12:02:56 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  11:58:56 AM
QQQQ's perched at 39.51, and as it sits here, the 30 and 60 min Keltner channels are dropping, with support down to 39.45. If 39.50 breaks for longer than 5 minutes, I'll expect to see those levels continue lower to the next significant chart confluence at 39.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  11:48:18 AM
Nymex crude to a new high of 45.65 here, +3.34%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  11:45:04 AM
QQQQ's failure here is very bearish, but factoring out the ex-divident drop of roughly 38 cents, we're still in range of that 40.00 op-ex strike which could act as a tractor beam On the unadjusted charts, QQQQQ has little support below 39.50 until 39.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  11:32:27 AM
QQQQ is taking a return to the scene of the crime bounce from 39.55 channel support. A failure from the lower high will see the channel roll more aggressively lower.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/17/20,  11:20:56 AM
Jonathan it sounds like it is cold in old Montreal.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  11:16:00 AM
QQQQ's approaching lower pennant support here at 39.60 as the short cycle oscillators roll over from overbought. A break of 39.54 will confirm a downside pennant breakout if 39.60 doesn't hold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  11:14:25 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Percentage changes correct here. Something in error with QCharts "Market Watch"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  11:11:46 AM
Back. Amazing what good time one can make on foot in -12c weather.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  11:05:32 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:59:29 AM
Fitted retracement traders .... if interested in another put opportunity, try using your fitted retracement expertise to "explain why" PFE traded session low of $22.00.

Do this so that you still get a LEVEL below $22.00. Then we'll go further. I've got to get started on 11:00 Update.

For lower level... look to see if it would correlate with the growing bearish vertical count of $16.

then look for a higher level of retracement resistance, where specialist might then be seller of all the stock he/she buys today in order to provide liquidity for market participants.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:56:19 AM
QQQQ is holding within a narrowing range for an intraday pennant between 39.59 and 39.73 currently. A breakout on expanding volume should give us a directional move targeting 30 min channel resistance or support at 39.82 or 39.53 currently.

I need to step out for 20 minutes to beat the rush at the bank.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:48:03 AM
Crude oil broke 45.00 this AM with a high of 45.10, currently up 1.64% at 44.90.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:46:21 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.11 .... current month puts (December) fall in price very rapid with just hours of premium remaining as PFE gets little bounce here, but forward months still pack in quite a bit of premium with more time remaining.

Trade decision explanation: By having bought back the Dec. $25, (even at a loss on the bounce) the PROFIT in the trade (long Jan. $25 puts increased due to jump in volatility/premium).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:38:53 AM
Signing off for a couple of hours. Be careful.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:37:48 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.00 -13.7% ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:34:53 AM
Mark, it's SPX 1150, NDX 1525, DJX 10100. But these are thin options, and the levels aren't as sharp as for more liquid stocks/ETFs. I would add that maximum pain options theory has been a maximum pain for much of this year, with frequent misses in various issues. Some have hit, some have missed, and this is at best a secondary indicator, rapidly becoming a tertiary indicator. Clearly, QQQQ 40 (or ex-div adjusted 39.60ish) appears to be a target support for this opex week.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:34:45 AM
Swing trade close out alert .... for the five (5) PFE Jan. $25 puts (PFEME) at the offer of $1.30.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:34:31 AM
The OEX is bouncing back to retest 570.50-570.70, kind of a line in the sand for me for the OEX. Below that, I consider the OEX back inside the broadening formation and doing more than a retesting of the top trendline. (Back above it as I type.) As long as the OEX is below that level, the daily candle will look like an evening-star formation. It's historical S/R. It's the site of a descending neckline for its H&S. We've seen a lot of zooming around this morning, with great difficulty determining what might happen next, but that's what's showing up now. The TRIN is just crazy this morning. The advdec line is negative, but currently trying to climb. The TRAN broke above the descending trendline off Wednesday's high, making the decline look a lot like a bull flag decline. Mixed signals everywhere. Trade carefully. For those in front-month options, remember that pin-them-to-the-number effort that sometimes begins within the next hour and set stops that are based on the value of your option as well as the position of the OEX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:32:06 AM
Swing trade close out alert ... close out the five (5) PFE Dec. $25 puts (PFE-XE) at the offer of $0.50.

 
 
  Mark Davis   12/17/20,  10:31:23 AM
Jeff do you have the "max pain" index levels?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:29:10 AM
Pfizer option chain alert at this Link

Will follow at this time post with CLOSE OUT BOTH alert. The focus for this position is Profit/Loss column, which would currently show net $300.00 profit.

Bids look accrurate for options, but ASK for PFE-ME incorrect.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:24:30 AM
Preparing screen capture of current PFE option position... will follow with detailed trade strategy, but looking to CLOSE OUT BOTH option positions. Then perhaps look for new LONG put position.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:24:17 AM
39.65 QQQQ had been range support since 9:30 and the move below it should set up resistance at that level. The 30 min channel has rolled over, with support at 39.50 after a brief rise in the channel took it up to 39.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:20:40 AM
Swing trade cancel prior order alert .... Cancel the (09:33:56) order to buy back the five (5) PFE Dec. $25 puts (PFE-XE) for $0.10.

PFE $24.19 -16.63% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:20:34 AM
The TRAN still challenges that descending trendline off Wednesday's high. Other indices that created similar evening-star formations are not performing as strongly today, with the Nasdaq being one, for example.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:17:07 AM
Careful, OEX traders. PFE is of course a component of the OEX, and we're seeing the effect of PFE's drop, among other factors. PFE rebounded strongly from its low and turns down again now, but expect some volatility as a result.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:14:48 AM
And here's the equivalent discussion for QQQQ and its options: Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:13:42 AM
Am I seeing right? The OEX just confirmed the H&S on its five-minute chart and plummeted. Downside target is now 566.85, as per last night's 21:46 post.

I have an appointment this morning, and will be leaving in about twenty minutes. I should be back by early afternoon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:13:12 AM
Here's a link to the announcement as regards the Fidelity Nasdaq Comp Tracking Stock (ONEQ) going ex-div today, and the impact on ONQ/IQX/NQX options: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:10:41 AM
More on the QQQQ dividend and option repricing:

Interactive Brokers referred me to theocc.com for info on the dividend. Looks like strike prices drop by 0.375. IB doesn't know when they'll be able to correct their systems, so I'm flying blind this morning. My spreadsheet linked to the IB data is useless today, and my OptionVue program is without data also. Tough situation.

Thanks for the link, Dave. I will post more info as I find it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:10:29 AM
The SOX is back below its 200-ema again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:09:32 AM
The TRAN still hesitates beneath 3750, also just beneath a descending trendline off Wednesday's high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:08:05 AM
Merck (MRK) $30.86 -2.92% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:07:31 AM
PFE $23.90 .... still not open on the NYSE. All ECNs right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:05:23 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  10:03:07 AM
The Fed's open market desk has given the market a 2.75B 6-day repo against 4B expiring for a net drain of 1.25B.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  10:02:34 AM
PFE $23.54 on the ECN.

Options will not start trading until stock is open on the NYSE.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  10:01:02 AM
With the TRAN leading the way, the OEX climbs higher. This is why I watch the TRAN: it often seems to lead the Dow and S&P's, the way the SOX once lead the Nasdaq. Still a messy chart patter--no real pattern--on the OEX's five-minute chart. Still a lot of zooming around.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  9:58:07 AM
why has there been such a big drop in the price of QQQQ this morning? There has always been a strong correlation in their price action in the past.

Thanks to Lee for highlighting this question. My initial thought was that op-ex manipulation is causing the rare discrepancy. However, it could also be caused by QQQQ distributing the quarterly accumulated dividends payed by the stocks that comprise it. The ETF's value is based on the net asset value of the fund, and should see a drop in value equal to the dividend distributed to holders of the stock. Note that QQQQ is now proportionally stronger than NQ, and I would expect to see further distortions as this quarterly event works its way through the markets. Added to the mix is the fact that it's occurring on op-ex Friday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:56:15 AM
Trade plan update alert for PFE options (MM Profiles) ... once we get a firm opening, this is what I would do if holding recently profiled option strategy.

With Pfizer tanking $23.20, I would first close out PFE Dec. $25 puts (PFE-XE) for a LOSS.

Once that trade is close out, I would then look where the LONG PFE Jan. $25 puts (PFE-ME) were trading, and then place a STOP Profit order $0.20 above the current trade price on those options.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:55:41 AM
The OEX consolidates at its five-minute 100/130-ema's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:51:34 AM
PFE ..... $24.15 ......

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  9:51:19 AM
Current 30 min cycle bands for QQQQ are at 39.50-39.88.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:49:31 AM
On the five-minute chart, the SOX's climb looks like a potential bear-flag climb. Other indices' patterns don't show patterns that can be easily qualified as one thing or another. Just a lot of zooming around.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:49:02 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $46.91 +0.47% .... no "COX-2" drugs in their line.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:48:23 AM
And the OEX is back above its five-minute 100/130-ema's, but facing top-of-the-gap resistance and turning back again. The TRAN continues zooming higher, just now pausing beneath 3750. If it's leading other indices anywhere, it's leading them up. Advdec drifts a little lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:45:56 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $24.70 ....... still not open

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  9:45:11 AM
And there's the break. Next resistance is at 39.88 QQQQ, while 39.72-.75 should now hold as support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:44:10 AM
So far this morning, the TRAN is not following through on its confirmed evening-star reversal signal, but is instead rising.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  9:43:44 AM
The short cycle upphase currently in progress needs to hold above 39.65 QQQQ or preferably break 39.77 resistance. It is currently stalling on the sideways action since the cash open.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:42:47 AM
The SOX moved below its 200-ema this morning, but then moved back to retest that average.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:38:23 AM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.65 -0.31% .... will have probably accounted for PFE pre-market.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:37:19 AM
Pfizer (PFE) not opened for official trade. $25.40 on ECN.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:37:05 AM
The OEX bounced immediately right back to this morning's gap level and right back to the five-minute 100/130-ema's. It's turning back now, as bears would like to see happen, but this complete round trip this morning shows the kind of volatility that might be encountered.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:33:56 AM
Swing trade close out SOLD put alert .... Place an order to buy back the five (5) PFE Dec. $25 puts (PFE-XE) that were sold on 11/10/04. Place order for $0.10.

These were sold for $0.35.

No need to "panic" on these if holding LONG the Jan $25 puts (PFE-ME) as these options will increase in price on the decline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  9:33:12 AM
On the 30 min chart, QQQQ 39.60 is secondary rising trendline support for the month. 39.25 is the last line in the sand if 39.40-.50 confluence breaks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:33:06 AM
The OEX opens and drops hard. At the open, it gapped below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with these averages having been a bounce point for the OEX until yesterday afternoon, when they failed to provide a bounce and showed that the tenor of the markets had changed. We should now consider them likely resistance, with those averages now at 573.17 and 573.05, respectively. The OEX bounces from just above yesterday's low now, perhaps to retest those averages. One danger is the SPX settlement this morning, which may be creating fake-out moves.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  9:29:30 AM
Crude oil has continued its upward march, currently up 1.25% to 44.725. QQQQ is at a low of 39.59 here. The 39.40-.50 area is key support from recent weeks for QQQQ, and appears to be where the 30 min cycle downphase from yesterday is aiming.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/17/20,  9:26:51 AM
Pfizer (PFE) alert! $28.98 ... plunges to $25.01.

Company saying it received new information last night about the cardivascular safety of its COX-2 inhibitor Celebrex based on an analysis of two long-term cancer trials. One of the studies (the APC cancer trial) demonstrated an increased cardiovascular risk over placebo, while the other trial (the PreSAP cancer trial) revealed no greater cardiovascular risk than placebo.

Pfizer saying "These clinical trial results are new. The cardiovascular findings in one of the studies (APC) are unexpected and not consistent with the reported findings in the second study (PreSAP). Pfizer is taking immediate steps to fully understand the results and rapidly communicate new information to regulators, physicians and patients around the world."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  9:21:39 AM
Futures drift lower. If the OEX opens in accordance with futures activity, it risks falling back inside the broadening formation again and confirming the H&S with a neckline at about Thursday's low, but let's see what happens as the markets open. Remember that settlement value for the SPX options will be determined once all component stocks are open this morning. Talk on CNBC a few minutes ago centered around the big number of SPX options expiring this opex cycle, so there's perhaps some opportunity for volatility near the open as the time for determining settlement value comes and goes. As Jim said earlier on the Futures side, trading opex Friday can be worse than a coin toss. There's lots of opportunity for a fake-out move that is soon reversed or goes nowhere the rest of the day. Be careful.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  8:50:21 AM
Session high for Nymex crude here at 44.475, +.68%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  8:48:33 AM
QQQQ just got clipped for a quick 6 cent drop, currently down to 39.675. The low so far has been 39.625.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  8:44:37 AM
Session low for gold here at 439.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  8:39:08 AM
Bonds continue to slide, with TNX now up 3.2 bps at 4.216%. Gold is up 1.50 at 439.80 after rising to 441.70, a lower high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  8:33:01 AM
Bonds weakened slightly on the news, with TNX back to flat at 4.184%. QQQQ is up to a 20 cent loss at 39.75 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  8:31:51 AM
CPI .2% vs. .2% expected, prior .6%. Core CPI .2%. vs. .2% expected, prior .2%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/17/20,  7:14:11 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1204.75, NQ 1617.5, YM 10708 and QQQQ -.305 at 39.645. Gold is up 1.5 to 439.8, silver +.01 to 6.74 and crude oil +.075 to 44.25. Ten year bonds are up .031 to 112.2188.

We await the CPI and core CPI for November, est. .2% respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/17/20,  7:10:29 AM
Good morning. With the dollar gaining against the yen, the Nikkei soared in the morning session. Although it could not hold onto all its gains as the dollar eased, it still closed above the benchmark 11,000. Other Asian markets were mixed, and European markets turn lower despite a better-than-expected German business sentiment number. Our futures gained as it became apparent the Nikkei would finish with gains but sink off their overnight highs as Europe turns lower. As of 6:50 EST, gold was up $2.00 and crude, down $0.08. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened and shot straight up last night, with gains accelerating once the index moved above 11,000. Although the Nikkei drifted off its highs throughout the afternoon session as the dollar also drifted down against the yen, the Nikkei still closed above that benchmark level. It closed up 153.93 points or 1.41%, at 11,078.32. Gains appeared to be broad based. Techs started out weak, but then headed higher, including chip-equipment maker Tokyo Electron. One reason behind the optimism, in banking stocks at least, was news that Moody's Investors Service will take a look at a couple of Resona Holdings banks, considering upgrades on their ratings. Banking issues were mostly higher, but automakers turned in mixed performances. Mitsubishi Motors Company's stock declined on news that it and Mitsubishi Corp. will sell their headquarters building. Morgan Stanley group will be the buyer. In company-specific news, Panasonic-manufacturer Matsushita Electric Industrial upped production of plasma display panels and the company's stock saw gains as a result.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.16%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.16%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 1.16%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.23%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.11%.

Most European markets turn lower. This morning saw the release of November's Ifo indicator of German business sentiment, with that number rising to 94.1 against an expectation that it would fall. That perhaps helped Germany's DAX moderate losses this morning when compared to some other bourses. M&A action included a Siemen's offer for an Austrian engineering group, an offer that several analyst firms consider inadequate. The engineering group, VA Technologie, rose in early trading. In other stock-specific news, Roche Pharmaceuticals gained after the European Medicines Agency conveyed a positive opinion of one of the company's drugs, the first hepatitis C treatment for patients with HIV-HCV. EADS rose after a replacement for co-head Philippe Camus, whose term ends in June, was named.

As of 6:50 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 18.70 points or 0.39%, to 4,716.50. The CAC 40 had fallen 36.22 points or 0.95%, to 3,774.45. The DAX had fallen 18.63 points or 0.44%, to 4,215.08.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/16/20,  9:46:24 PM
Thursday saw some strange action on the indices, including an advdec line that was contrary to TRIN and the volatility indices. Delving deeper into volume patterns showed that decliners were far stronger than advancers as well as down volume being much stronger than up volume. This somewhat negated the possibility that we were just seeing concentrated selling of a few issues, although that's what I expected to find when I studied the pattern, since Jim had mentioned the re-weighting in the Russell. The Nasdaq did show a slightly heftier proportion of down volume to up than decliners to advancers, so perhaps that re-weighting was part of what was occurring. Selling into the highs might have been part, too.

The OEX completed the third candle of a possible "Advance Block Bearish" formation, a three-day pattern in which each day has a higher close than the previous day's. Although that sounds bullish so far, it isn't. With this pattern, each day opens within the previous day's candle, and the second and third day's candles would have long upper shadows. While Wednesday's OEX upper shadow wasn't exactly "long," the OEX's last three days fit many other parameters of this pattern. With that said, these candles are being produced above the broadening formation, and perhaps just represent consolidation after the breakout. As I said on the Monitor, I wouldn't even mention this pattern at a time when it's only natural that the OEX should be consolidating except that we're seeing potential reversal signals on other indices--the TRAN, SOX, COMPX, GSO, etc. We know that in a strongly trending market environment, the candle needed to complete a reversal signal may be the only reversal seen, so take this information with some caution. However, it may be time to begin looking for further corroboration that the OEX is ready for a retracement, at least. On a decline below Thursday's low, the OEX will have completed a regular H&S with a downside target of about 566.85. Tomorrow morning, we'll look at what's happened overnight to help make further observations. Until now, buying bounces from the five-minute 100/130-ema's was a good strategy, as it was Thursday morning, but it certainly wasn't Thursday afternoon, perhaps a first sign of at least a short-term trend change.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/16/20,  9:45:50 PM
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