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  OI Technical Staff   12/20/20,  10:00:31 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  9:45:16 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement shown at 12:51:15

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  9:27:20 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  4:12:45 PM
Buy Program Premium .... DIA $106.53 , SPY $119.41

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  4:07:16 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Did place a Profit Stop on the one (1) FRX Feb. $45 call (FHA-BI) at $3.60 to try and protect marginal gain.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  3:58:23 PM
Not a great day for OEX bulls, but the OEX looks as if it will squeak out a positive close. Just barely, and I think bulls had to dig in those hooves to keep it there.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  3:40:44 PM
Back to see a low volume failure below 39.30. That level is resistance for any break, while the bears hit support in the 39.00-.10 area, current low 39.09 QQQQ. A break of either should be directional, while the middle remains a chopzone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  3:40:01 PM
Investors just don't want to see the OEX taken below 567.50 or so.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  3:34:21 PM
The OEX drops again toward the day's low. The SOX does, too, now less than a point above the 50-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  3:27:10 PM
Roughly OEX 568.50-569.40 was resistance through November and early December, and the OEX appears to be fighing to get back above and close above that S/R zone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  3:11:52 PM
Keltner support tries to mass below the OEX at 567.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  3:11:17 PM
The SOX keeps slipping lower, just now off its LOD. It remains above the 50-dma, but not much above that average at 417.74, with the SOX currently at 419.83.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  3:10:53 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  3:03:15 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:58:44 PM
If the OEX ends the day anywhere near the current level, it will have soundly rejected the top trendline of its broadening formation on the daily chart. It will have consolidated, in that it will have traded most of the day within Friday's range, but the candle itself looks bearish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:55:25 PM
Advance warning: I will be gone all day tomorrow. I hope to return Wednesday morning, but am not yet certain.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:53:21 PM
Words spoken too soon? In my 14:37 post, I commented that in retrospect, the OEX's movements hadn't been as choppy as I'd expected, as it was following a regular series of drops, flags, drops, flags. No sooner had I written that than a flag retraced higher than the previous five-minute swing low, for the first time since the 10:00 numbers. That's only a small change in pattern and the OEX has already turned lower to test the latest flag's support, but it is something to watch.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  2:53:11 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  2:43:06 PM
Stepping away for 30 minutes here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:37:45 PM
In retrospect, the OEX's movements haven't been as choppy as I expected. A three-minute chart shows a steady series of drops followed by consolidation in a measured distribution form, and then another drop. This is one day when my expected scenario kept me from benefiting rather than kept me out of trouble, as it usually does. I had a bearish outlook with an expectation that the OEX would consolidate gains today, but instead it just headed on down after this morning's post-opex volatility sent it higher pre-10:00 numbers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  2:36:40 PM
QQQQ continues to chop along below the 39.20-.25 confluence, but the higher lows suggest pressure building with which to challenge 39.25. With the short cycle oscillators trying to turn up and the 30 min channel downphase weakening, a break that holds north of 39.25 should be good for a retest of 39.35, above which a new 30 min cycle upphase should kick off.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:34:12 PM
This is the kind of trading I expected today. The TRAN confirms a double-top formation, but then immediately after the confirmation turns around and moves up to retest the confirmation level, being slightly above it as I type. Still, this morning's unexpected burst higher would have brought OEX traders a four-point OEX move to the downside if they had entered a bearish play at the high of the day. That gain would have had to have been taken when the OEX had just retraced more than 61.8% of Friday's bearish range and when the 10:00 numbers had not yet been seen, a tough choice to make.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  2:27:02 PM
Ten year notes have weakened slightly, TNX now down 1.2 bps at 4.197%. There was a brief intraday dip below 4.18%, but that level appears to have been the floor for many hours.

 
 
  Mark Davis   12/20/20,  2:24:21 PM
Linda I have put "edge of the cliff" permanently in my play book. It is such a high odds play (about 90% since I started keeping track) that is just makes sense to go countertrend when it looks like the sky is falling. You will be right enough times to more than make up for the 1 in 10 times when the sky really does fall and you can always exit quickly if the bottom really falls out... pardon the mixed metaphors.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:24:19 PM
The OEX attempts a bounce from just above this morning's LOD, bouncing from next 15-minute Keltner support. That support extends down to 567.40 on a 15-minute closing basis.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:20:01 PM
The SOX so far holds above the 50-sma, the H&S neckline and the support from its rising regression channel. Is this going to be another edge-of-the-cliff move that never happens?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:16:21 PM
By the way, the TRAN's formation doesn't look so much like a double-top formation on the five-minute chart. It does on the 15-minute, where only candle spikes move above the equal-high level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  2:13:25 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  2:13:14 PM
The TRAN has confirmed its double-top formation on the five-minute chart, and now comes up to test the confirmation level again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  2:03:32 PM
QQQQ is below 30 min and 60 min channel support here. The 30 min line will catch up within the next couple of minutes, but this would be a high odds area for some kind of bounce. Bulls need to get above 39.25 to suggest that it won't just be of the dead-cat variety.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  2:03:20 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  1:57:59 PM
If I've drawn my neckline correctly--difficult to tell for sure when the formation is rough--the OEX has confirmed its continuation-form H&S. The OEX needs to drop to a new LOD to confirm.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  1:55:17 PM
That was quick. Here's 39.15. QQQQ just lost nearly 10 cents in a few seconds.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  1:54:10 PM
The flag bounce on QQQQ failed below 39.40 and is back to the lows. However, 30 min support is holding at 39.15- next support should begin to assert itself there on the way to 39.00-.05 confluence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  1:36:41 PM
There's a rough continuation-form H&S with a neckline at about 568.45. I don't trust continuation-form H&S's any more than I do continuation-form inverse H&S's.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  1:27:35 PM
Despite the bullish price action, the 30 min cycle channel and oscillators remain down for QQQQ. This suggests that current rise is a bear flag/ "b" distribution bounce, and if so, it should fail beneath 39.40-.42, 30.45 at the outside. If it gets through 39.42, the 30 min cycle channel should begin to reverse its current downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  1:20:26 PM
The GSO also rolls lower, also near its LOD. The GSO presents the possibility of a H&S forming on its daily chart, too, with a right shoulder not yet formed. If the GSO should find support anywhere between its current 168.93 level and the 30-sma near 167 and move higher again, watch for a potential rollover into a right shoulder (might take a number of days) or for a move past the head to negate the formation. This tells us that unless the GSO is going to do away with the whole right-shoulder thing and fall, further downside in this index could be limited today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  1:17:21 PM
The GHA continues to roll lower today, currently at 314.08, its LOD.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  1:15:49 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  1:10:05 PM
QQQQ has just broken the prior high off a high low of 39.26 QQQQ. Upper declining 30 min channel resistance is at 39.50, support 39.15. Bulls need to break 39.45 to stall the current 30 min cycle downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  1:07:51 PM
The TRAN drew up just short of confirming its double-top formation, with the confirmation level at 3733.01, the low of the trough between the two peaks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  1:07:26 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  12:59:20 PM
January Heating Oil (ho05f) $1.3880 -3.57% (30-minute delayed) ...

WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $1.149, $1.295, Piv=$1.381, $1.527, $1.613.

USA Today's 5-day forecast for Albany, NY at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:57:41 PM
Here's a SOX daily chart with some things I've been watching: Link On the Futures side, they've been talking about those "edge of the cliff" plays that rarely pan out, and this is an "edge of the cliff" level for the SOX, too. A fall through this support would need to be confirmed by a fall through the previous December low, in my opinion. A decline through the 50-sma, if maintained, would damage market sentiment even if the SOX isn't always the tech leader that it used to be.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  12:52:01 PM
Despite the high volume break back below 39.33, the 39.25 support refuses to let go here. A wavelet downphase is in progress and should roughly 5 or 6 minutes of downside left, making this prime time for the bears here. If bulls can hold 39.25, that will be a nominally higher intraday low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  12:51:15 PM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,593.87 -0.17% ... with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Bulls may look to defend WEEKLY S1 into Wednesday's weekly energy reports.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:46:30 PM
For about an hour and a half now, the OEX has traded within the lower 50% of Friday's range, the more bearish half of that already bearish tall red candle. Still, so far, the trading has been rather choppy. Bears need to get a break below today's low and then below 566 possible support before they can even think about that potential 564.19 downside target that the 15-minute Keltner charts suggest if support fails. I'm still not sure how possible that test would be as I'm still leaning toward a choppy day/consolidation day scenario. If that advdec line keeps declining, I'll lean toward a more bearish outcome for the day. Actually, I'll consider it bearish if the OEX forms a candle body today in the lower half of Friday's trading range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  12:38:20 PM
QQQQ has made it to roughly the same point on its current flaggy bounce as it had on the previous one when it failed around 11:45AM. A break below 39.26 should set up a quick retest of the low, below which the 39.05 support level comes into view.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:37:42 PM
The OEX just broke below the lastest bear flag's support, visible on the one-minute chart, but needs to drop below the last five-minute low of 568.31 to confirm that. Until then, it's possibly just widening the flag and not really dropping below its support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  12:37:38 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $45.50 -1.54% .... FRX Feb. 45 calls (FHA-BI) bidding $4.10.

Pfizer (PFE) $24.63 -4.42% ... remains a drag.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  12:29:34 PM
Session low for gold here at 442.50, -.50. XAU and HUI are still positive but have pulled back, HUI +.67% currently at 216.32.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:28:36 PM
The advdec still follows the downward trend today, first falling, then steadying before another fall.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:27:37 PM
Is that VXO level wrong? Are others seeing 13.61, up from 12.54?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:26:30 PM
So far, the SOX bounces from just above its 50-sma, although "bounce" might be an exaggeration.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  12:25:31 PM
Symantec (SYMC) $23.93 -5.67% and Veritas (VRTS) $26.32 -5.11% .... market continues to have problems embracing this merger.

Both are percentage losers for the QQQQ and GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 169.06 -1.21%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  12:21:37 PM
12:20 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  12:19:00 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:17:46 PM
VXO took a big leap. Let's see if it holds.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:14:23 PM
In that last post, I forgot to mention that the SOX's 50-sma is at 417.74, with the SOX currently at 419.47.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  12:11:35 PM
Session low for Nymex crude here at 45.525, -2.25%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  12:07:30 PM
The SOX sinks now toward the converging 100-ema and 50-sma, with most watching the 50-sma more closely. A move below the 50-sma also threatens a move out of the ascending regression channel in which the SOX has been trading since early September. Depending on how the neckline is drawn, it may also mark a decline through the neckline of a H&S on the SOX's daily chart. Although I know that SOX-related stocks do not comprise the greatest proportion of the NDX, a fall through these levels will still damage market sentiment--they're being tested as I type as the decline steepens.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  12:07:04 PM
Below 39.25, next support is in the 39.00-.05 area for QQQQ, followed by 38.80 and 38.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  11:59:03 AM
Dow breadth positive at 21 to 9. Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $51.09 +2.59% only stock up more than 1%, while Pfizer (PFE) $24.95 -3.10% only percentage loser.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  11:58:36 AM
30 min channel support is now in play with QQQQ at a session low of 39.30. The failure of the 30 minute cycle upphase this morning was premature, and suggests an aggressive retest of the 39.25 support, just 7 cents away as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:52:31 AM
With the exception of the first move of the day being up from an opening low instead of down from an opening high, the OEX's behavior has pretty much met my expectations. I'm still studying the 15-minute chart, trying to make sense of the formation from Friday and today, but it's just a lot of choppy stuff.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  11:48:05 AM
QQQQ is testing lower flag support here as TNX sits at 4.183%, still down 2.6 bps and gold holds the mid 444's, currently up 1.70 at 444.70. Nymex crude is down .8 at 45.775.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:46:37 AM
The SOX just dropped below Friday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:34:57 AM
After challenging the 200-ema for a while this morning, the SOX has turned down again, but hasn't yet breached Friday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:33:24 AM
The advdec line tries to steady, but it's been on a generally downward trend since shortly before the 10:00 numbers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  11:32:24 AM
The current bounce has a sideways/flaggy feel to it. Lower rising trendline support is currently 39.43, with 30 min channel support at 39.35 below that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:28:06 AM
Caught on the telephone for a few minutes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  11:21:38 AM
Lower 30 min keltner support is down to 39.35 QQQQ after the bounce attempt failed below 39.50. Upper resistance is down to 39.76, and the intraday bias has shifted to the downside. This should continue below 39.52 on the current run.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  11:10:39 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:10:05 AM
The OEX also fell through central Keltner support on the 15-minute chart. Next potential Keltner support shows up at about 568.94, with stronger support near 567.57 and with a potential downside target of 564.09, depending on how support aligns as the OEX falls. I had expected a test of 566.85 or so (downside target from last week's confirmed H&S) near the open this morning, then some choppy consolidation-type moves. I still lean toward the potential for a choppy consolidation-type day, but am not sure about how likely that 564 test might be. I'm not counting on it being achieved at this point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  11:06:48 AM
My email server is currently offline, but should be back shortly. For those trying to email me, please excuse my delay in responding.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:06:25 AM
The OEX just fell through the just-mentioned 5- and 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  11:04:49 AM
This is either a bad tick or a strong sell program at the lows here, QQQQ now on declining 30 min support at 39.45.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  11:04:05 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

SPX kissed WEEKLY R1 early. BIX.X also sees trade at WEEKLY R1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  11:02:39 AM
QQQQ is holding below 7200-tick SMA resistance and the downtick in the 30 minute is persistent- but it has yet to bloom into a full-fledged downphase. If QQQQ can hold below 39.55 for another 10 minutes or so, that should change.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  11:00:58 AM
Good point, Tab, in your 10:59 post.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:59:19 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $28.90 +6.17% Link ... higher after company said it inked a deal with firearms supplier Davidson's Inc. to distribute the company's stun guns to sporting-goods and police-equipment dealers nationwide.

Davidson's planced an order for $1.5 million of Taser products, including 1,000 Taser X26c weapons, with shipments expected during the current quarter.

Under the agreement, Davidson's will be the sole supplier of Taser's X26C citizen defense system to federal firearms licence holders, as well as non-licensed dealers on a non-exclusive basis, for an initial period of one year.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/20/20,  10:59:09 AM
It's looking very much like a double top on the INDU. I've been watching this since Dec 1st, 12:59 MM post. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:56:13 AM
The OEX's five and fifteen-minute 100/130-ema's are located in relatively close proximity and the OEX has been finding support at those converging averages today. The highest of them is the fifteen-minute 100-ema at 570.68 and the lowest is at the 15-minute 130-ema at 570.34, with the five-minute's sandwiched in between. The OEX has much support here, which may be one reason behind the consolidation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  10:53:29 AM
Gold and bonds are barely moving, with February gold futures still up 1.20 at 444.20 on light volume of 273 e-mini contracts. HUI +.98% at 217 here, with TNX holding at 4.182%. Crude oil is lower by .75 at 45.825, -1.61%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  10:51:49 AM
QQQQ is chopping along at the lower end of the day's range as the 30 min channel ticks lower, with support down to 39.47 and resistance 39.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:41:01 AM
I see that currency markets are showing some consolidation currently in the dollar against some other currencies, and that TNX has been sort of flat-lining all day, too. Consolidation is being echoed in other markets, too, then, but a major break in one of those might have me leaning less toward the consolidation-day scenario for our markets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:37:46 AM
The SOX has been challenging the 200-ema again this morning, so far not able to maintain levels above that average, currently at 426.56.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:36:11 AM
Currently, the OEX trades between 572 resistance and 570-570.50 support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:35:14 AM
Pharmos Corp. (PARS) $1.18 -66.28% Link ... this morning's most actively traded and sharply lower after company reported that a late-stage trial of its Dexanabinol failed to demonstrate efficacy in treating severe traumatic brain injury. Dexanabino had received FDA "fast track" and orphan drug status from the FDA and uses cannabis-related compounds as treatments for central nervous system disorders.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  10:35:00 AM
QQQQ is bouncing from the previous low. A break above 39.78 should attract the buy-bots gaming the intraday double bottom. However, below 39.72, the short cycle downphase remains in effect.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:30:53 AM
The TRAN has not broken out of the symmetrical triangle on its 15-minute chart, a triangle that it has spent several days building.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:30:46 AM
VIX.X 12.07 +1.00% ... SPX most active options.... Dec05 850 puts (5,000 : 18,342), Jan 1,180 puts (1,810 : 9,868), Feb 1,275 calls (1,610 : 1,791), Jan 1,150 puts (1,230 : 31,022).

Current SPX January "Max Pain" theory is 1,180 (5-point increments)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:26:24 AM
The advdec line has been dropping since shortly before the 10:00 economic release. It's still positive, but the trend of the advdec line can be as important as the trend of the TRIN.

I leaned toward initial volatility this morning and then possible choppy trading conditions as markets digested Friday's gains. I thought the day might end with the OEX having printed a small-bodied candle with both upper and lower shadows. The climb this morning was greater than I anticipated this morning, however, and there was no downside spike first, as I expected, so that's thrown my theory for the day into some disarray. I'm still leaning toward choppy trading behavior and a possible consolidation day, especially if TRIN flat-lines and we see conflicting information from other internals, but it will likely have a different course than I had expected when looking at charts last night.

The OEX sinks now to retest its five-minute 100/130-ema's at 570.20 and 570.51, respectively after pushing through them on the first five-minute candle this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:25:36 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  10:20:14 AM
Bonds are very steady, with TNX still down 2.6 bps at 4.183%. Gold and the miners have pulled back somewhat, with HUI now up .94% at 216.94.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:19:15 AM
Swing trade place a bullish profit stop alert .... will place a profit stop of $3.60 on the one (1) FRX Feb. $45 call (FHA-BI)

Forest Labs (FRX) $45.90 -0.69% Link ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  10:15:33 AM
A new short cycle downphase is in progress, with 30 min channel support down at 39.48 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:14:14 AM
So far today, the OEX's action has constituted a retest of the supporting trendline that had begun building the morning of 12/14. The OEX pierced that trendline, but left only a candle shadow above it, falling back. It also pierced the 61.8% retracement of Friday's range, but left only a candle shadow above, falling back. The shape of the climb wasn't a bearish distribution shape, but we should factor in the post-opex volatility, too. I don't see a clear outcome just yet. Bears would have liked for the OEX to have rolled down before the 61.8% retracement, but it's not unheard of for prices to roll down after testing that level. Bulls would have liked for that resistance to have shattered, the way that 570.40-570.70-ish resistance did.

Now the OEX comes down to retest the 571 possible support, to see if it holds, with Keltner support down to about 570.50 and then again at 569.98.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:11:35 AM
Google (GOOG) $186.24 +3.4% ... retraces 61.8% of its 11/03 to 11/22 decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:10:55 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's closing internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:08:04 AM
The TRAN, at least, has settled into a symmetrical triangle at the top of its range, with that triangle forming from 12/16 to the present. This morning, the TRAN appeared to pierce the upper trendline, but then quickly sank beneath it, leaving only a candle shadow above it on the 15-minute chart. The TRAN now tries to inch above it, but hasn't managed yet. I'm watching the TRAN as an indicator of what other indices might do since it sometimes serves as a leading indicator.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  10:05:07 AM
The move below 39.72 has the short cycle upphase for QQQQ stalled. A move below 39.65 for longer than 3-5 minutes should be enough to kick off a new downphase.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  10:04:15 AM
Headline:

10:00am CONFERENCE BOARD: LEI UP 0.2% VS FORECAST 0.1%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:03:19 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:03:04 AM
Although the OEX punched above the 61.8% retracement of Friday's range, it didn't stay there long and turns down now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  10:00:48 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.26 -1.9% .... company saying earlier this morning that it is pulling all promotions (to consumer) of its Celebrex drug.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:00:09 AM
As Jane just mentioned, the internals are still bullish this morning, although TRIN rises and might bear watching.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  9:58:17 AM
Very SIMILAR trade this morning as we saw the day after Merck (MRK) pulled Vioxx from market.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  9:52:50 AM
The new highs here are laboring under small doji tops on the 100 tick candles, but the upward 30 min and short cycle bias suggests more upside yet. I suspect that bulls will run into heavier resistance between 39.92-40.00, but it's early yet. Meanwhile, silver is up to 6.94, just off the session highs, with HUI +1.44% at 217.99 and XAU +1.28% at 99.59.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  9:52:00 AM
The OEX has retraced more of Friday's range than bears wanted to see, and apparently still heads up toward the target of the inverse H&S it confirmed this morning, with that target at about 573.37. Still, take any targets with a grain of salt ahead of 10:00 numbers and as post-opex volatility settles down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  9:51:20 AM
VIX.X 12.24 +2.42% .... Daily pivot levels ... 11.35, 11.68, Piv = 12.20, 12.53, 13.04.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  9:49:37 AM
No sooner did I upload that last post about the TRAN than it began moving up again after steadying near the 3750 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  9:49:29 AM
11 minutes until the LEI data.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  9:47:50 AM
QQQQ is working on 39.72 resistance now. Rising short cycle channel resistance is up to 39.80 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  9:46:39 AM
Still watching the TRAN, still slipping lower after reaching a slightly higher high (than Friday's).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/20/20,  9:45:56 AM
No notable changes to the various major market bullish % readings on Friday.

The 8 new additions to the NASDAQ-100 all had point and figure buy signal associated with their charts. ADSK Link , NTLI Link , WYNN Link , LTBYA Link , XMSR Link , MCIP Link , ERICY Link , SIRI Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  9:43:15 AM
The OEX's three-minute chart shows that the OEX confirmed an inverse H&S this morning, upside target about 573.37. The OEX has to climb past 571.76 expected resistance (Keltner and from Friday's supporting trendline) to get to that upside target, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  9:39:01 AM
The TRAN slightly exceeded Friday's high, but then immediately turned lower into a possible double-top on the five-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  9:34:27 AM
The OEX rises right into next resistance, as if it's no problem. Careful about forming too strong an opinion about today's action too soon, as positions from last week are settled or reestablished.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  9:34:17 AM
Ten year notes are strong, TNX down 2.4 bps to 4.185%. Look for support from 4.14-4.16%. Gold is up 1.30 at 444.30.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  9:32:08 AM
The OEX opens below the bear flag, below Friday's low, but climbs immediately into Keltner resistance. That first strong resistance should be near 570.40, extending up to 570.80 now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  9:17:40 AM
QQQQ is in a 30 minute cycle upphase that launched early within the bearish divergent daily cycle downphase. That makes this bounce suspect, more likely to fail early from a lower high. Resistance is at 39.72, 39.85, 40.05 and 40.10-.15. A move above 40.20-.22 would cause trouble for the daily cycle downphase, but it's a long way from current levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  8:47:33 AM
Futures are higher this morning. If those futures are indicative of opening action on the OEX, too, the OEX might be expected to open back within the possible bear flag on its 15-minute chart. As configured right now, that 15-minute Keltner chart shows significant resistance from 570.30-570.44, although standard technical analysis suggests that the OEX could rise as far as 571 or maybe a little above and still be acting as a bear flag might. The 571-ish level is the 50% retracement of Friday's range. The OEX's last downturn through the bear flag on Friday occurred after a touch of the 38.2% retracement, so those Fib levels do perhaps hold some significance. So, if the OEX should show strength at the open, bears will want to see it roll down again from below 571 or slightly above, while bulls will want to see it regain 571.76, the 61.8% retracement, and keep climbing from there. Expect some volatility at the open as positions are reestablished after opex week. Remember that it's perhaps wise after Friday's big drop to at least consider a choppy, consolidation scenario for the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  8:33:25 AM
My apologies: Leading economic indicators for November are being released at 10AM, and not at 8:30AM as I mistakenly reported.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/20/20,  7:53:17 AM
Equities are higher, with ES trading 1202.25, NQ 1618, YM 10710 and QQQQ + .15 to 39.63. Gold is up .50 to 443.50, silver +.043 to 6.85 and ten year notes +.078 to 112.1094. Crude oil is up .075 to 44.25.

We await Leading Economic Indicators for November, est. .2%, scheduled for release at 8:30.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  7:00:18 AM
Good morning. Big news overnight was the sale of Yukos unit Yuganskneftegaz to BaikalFinansGroup. Little is known about the group that some believe to be an arm of Russian-state-run Gazprom. Last week, a Houston judge granted Yukos an injunction that forbid Western banks from financing a purchase by Gazprom. Other news included the Japanese government's announced plans to reduce that country's deficit, plans that worry some. The Nikkei coiled just above the flat-line level Monday, closing higher, but other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. China's Shanghai Composite dropped again toward September's multi-year low. Almost all European markets trade higher, boosted by oil majors and a rebound in pharmaceuticals. Our futures opened slightly lower Sunday night, flat-lined until about 1:00 am EST, and then began climbing. They're now positive. As of 6:37 EST, gold was up $0.60 and crude, down $0.47. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With Japan's drugmakers declining after other drugmakers suffered a hit last week, the Nikkei coiled just above the flat-line level during most of Monday's session. With a spike higher in the last few minutes of trading, the Nikkei closed higher by 25.10 points or 0.32%, at 11,103.42. Drugmaker Yamanouchi Pharmaceutical Co. took a big hit since it markets Celebrex in Japan. Banks closed higher after Standard & Poor's upgraded nine of Japan's major banks one level. Other stocks tended to move due to stock-specific news, such as Sharp Corporation's climb after its announcement of a planned new facility and Sanyo Electric Company's drop after investors were led to believe it might miss previous expectations.

In other news, the government of Prime Minister Koizumi revealed plans to cut its budget deficit by 6% in the next fiscal year. To accomplish this goal, the government intends to trim spending on bridges, roads and other such structures by 3.6 %, phase out 1999's income tax cut revisions and sell fewer new bonds, among other measures. Japan will likely still sell a record number of bonds. According to a Bloomberg article, Standard & Poor's considers these efforts too little, too late and doesn't have plans to immediately increase Japan's credit rating. Others also worry that the plans will hinder Japan's recovery.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. Oil majors had been strong due to last week's rise in crude prices. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.39%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 1.05%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.08%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.58%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.16%, with last week's decline already having taken the index below 1,300. A multi-year low occurred in September at 1,259.43, and the index closed today at 1,275.459 after reaching a day's low of 1,272.146.

Most European markets trade in the green, with many European oil majors higher and drugmakers rebounding a bit from last week's drubbing. Part of the gains might have been a technical bounce, but Sanofi-Aventis also announced that it has been allowed a new patent application in the U.S. for one of its drugs. Exchanges Euronext and Deutsche Boerse both declined after Euronext admitted interest in the London Stock Exchange, and investors decided a bidding war might occur. In other stock-specific news, Electronics Arts has taken a stake in European stock UbiSoft, sending that stock sharply higher.

As of 6:37 EST, the FTSE 100 was up 33.20 points or 0.71%, to 4,730.00. The CAC 40 had climbed 26.14 points or 0.90%, to 3,771.06. The DAX had gained 37.47 points or 0.90%, to trade at 4,219.74.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/19/20,  10:08:02 PM
Friday's Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/19/20,  9:36:42 PM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) with updated weekly pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/19/20,  9:21:24 PM
January Crude Oil futures (cl05h) down 23 cents at $46.05.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/19/20,  9:10:48 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/19/20,  8:36:22 PM
YUKOS asset sold to unknown company for $9.6B
Baikal Finance Group, an unknown company, won an auction for Russian oil company's YUKOS's core asset Sunday with a $9.4 billion bid and analysts said whomever was behind the bid enjoyed Kremlin favor.

Gazprom, which had been favored to win but was outbid, declared it had no links to Baikal. Analysts still believed the state-controlled gas giant or other state interests may have had a hand in the winning bid for Yuganskneftegaz.

Baikal, which was not one of three originally registered bidders including Gazprom, may have been a hastily assembled vehicle allowing Russian state interests to get around the U.S. court order, one analyst said.

"There were three registered bidders and all three were named in the restraining order. Now the surprise is that a new entity emerges. The Russian state was not named in the restraining order nor was this entity," he added. Russian news agency Itar-Tass said one of its reporters had checked the address given by Baikal in the town of Tver, 125 miles outside Moscow, and had found a building housing a mobile phone shop and a food store.

"I see no plausible explanation for the theory that Baikal was representing competing interests," said Paul Collison, a strategist with UBS in Moscow. He added that Yugansk was likely to end up with Gazprom or directly in the state's hands.

Under Russian law the government can order a new auction or seize Yugansk in lieu of unpaid taxes if Baikal Finance fails to pay the full amount it has bid within 14 days. Any bets this is likely to happen?

The company (YUKOS) considers that the victor of today's auction has bought itself a serious $9 billion-dollar headache," YUKOS spokesman Alexander Shadrin said. "Those who stand behind the winner ... have subjected their business to considerable legal risks. We declare that the sale of Yugansk is illegal," he told Reuters.

They told a news conference in Moscow they would seek injunctions in foreign courts seizing Russian oil and gas exports.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/19/20,  7:10:15 PM
Starting with a broad view, the OEX's weekly candle shows a long upper shadow, never a great sign, but the candle body forms within a consolidation band on that weekly chart. Weekly oscillators either flatten or turn up slightly. Most times, a long upper shadow indicates either sideways consolidation or a pullback in progress, but oscillators aren't yet showing a likelihood of that happening. On the weekly chart, the supposed broadening formation from the daily chart resolves into a rising regression channel, with spikes both below and above the channel.

Still, that gives us a starting place from which to look at the daily chart. Does that chart also show a possibility of sideways consolidation or a pullback? Certainly, Friday's long red candle is anything but bullish, but that candle did drop the OEX all the way back to the potential 566-567.75 S/R zone. A consolidation day on Monday wouldn't be unexpected, then, just from the need to consolidate Friday's big losses.

From the perspective of the 60-through 15-minute charts, the OEX appears to have settled into a likely bear flag, however, suggesting more downside to come. Keltner charts suggest a possibility that Friday's low will be retested, with a break below Friday's low setting up the potential for a deeper fall through that 566-567.75 S/R zone or possibly even to 564.40 or so if the current S/R zone does not hold. These Keltner charts are about all we have to go on to determine nearby S/R because Friday's drop took the OEX into the congestion zone that held from mid-November through mid-December with multiple possible S/R levels scattered throughout that zone.

As the charts are arranged Sunday evening, my guess for Monday would be at least a slight continuation of Friday's losses, perhaps followed by choppy behavior that forms some sort of consolidation pattern as the OEX tries to digest the losses. Let's look at what happens overnight before making final decisions.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/19/20,  5:15:53 AM
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