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  OI Technical Staff   12/21/20,  8:41:53 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  5:31:26 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  4:15:34 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Stopped out of the one (1) MWD April $50 call (MWD-DJ) at the showing bid of $4.50. ($1.50, or +50%)

Stopped out of the one (1) FRX Feb. $45 call (FRX-BI) at the showing bid of $3.60. ($1.00, or +38.46%).

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/21/20,  4:07:28 PM
RIMM beats estimates and raises guidance for next quarter. Stock is down -2 because raised revenue guidance was less than street had hoped.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  3:48:57 PM
The break of 39.55 was also a fakeout, with QQQQ back to the upper end of its 39.55-39.65 rectangle. The short cycle oscillators are in a weak downphase within the flattened 30 min cycle channel. The 60 min is still rising, however- it will take a move below 39.45 to roll it over.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  3:44:20 PM
PNC is up 1.78% and breaking out over resistance at $56.00, which also happens to be the neckline of an inverse H&S pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  3:16:51 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/21/20,  3:13:46 PM
Earnings after he close:
SLR est +0.05
CBK est +0.22
RIMM est +0.55
PAYX est +0.23
MANU est -0.04
COGN est +0.33
FSII est -0.10
INTV est +0.12
MERX est -0.02

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  3:09:16 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  3:06:35 PM
QQQQ's back into the rectangle below 39.65, but not even the short cycle oscillators have rolled over yet. The picture is in limbo until 39.55 either breaks or holds for another test.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  2:58:32 PM
The VXO is back to 11.51, down 14.10% and back to levels not seen since the early 1990s. QQQQ is holding 39.65 support but without much vigor. 30 min cycle channel resistance is up to 39.77, and it will take a break below 39.55 to stall its rise.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/21/20,  2:42:39 PM
The DIA Calls in the LEAPS section just hit our profit stop at Dow 10750 and we are out of that position. The DIA leaps were entered on Oct dip at Dow 9900. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:40:56 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $23.80 +6.45% Link ... sets up for a test of its trending lower 200-day SMA. MACD trying to kick back higher after trending into zero.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  2:39:41 PM
Look for 39.65 QQQQ to act as support. If it doesn't, this long awaited range break will have just been another Crazy Ivan, bringin 39.55 support back into play.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  2:38:28 PM
Bond have strengthened, with TNX breaking that 4.18% floor since yesterday, back to testing the 4.16% support zone, currently -3.1 bps at 4.168%. Gold has recovered most of its loss, currently -.30 at 443.3 with HUI +.8% at 215.59. Nymex crude has closed flat, +.025 at 45.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:36:43 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,205.34 +0.89% ...

February Crude Oil (cl05g) $45.95 +0.37% (30-minute delayed)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  2:35:05 PM
QQQQ chart updated at this Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:34:38 PM
VIX.X 11.50 -2.78% ... new all-timer

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:33:57 PM
Hartford (HIG) $68.25 +1.71% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:33:31 PM
Pulte Home (PHM) $63.29 -0.07% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:33:01 PM
3M (MMM) $80.96 +0.26% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:32:31 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $54.70 +1.86% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:30:56 PM
All-time high alert ... NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7163.18 +0.64%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  2:22:39 PM
QQQQ held that 39.55 line and is tracing a rectangle between 39.65. Look for a directional move on a break of either end of the range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:21:18 PM
A blast from the past ... Hauppauge Digital (HAUP) $6.29 +16.71% Link among today's percentage gainers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:16:51 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:11:48 PM
Autodesk (ADSK) $38.08 +5.76% Link ... after 2:1 split.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  2:02:50 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  1:57:17 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $44.20 +2.96% Link .... another 52-weeker

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  1:39:05 PM
The GSO software index is today's second best performing sector (+1.76%) behind the XAL airline index (+1.8%).

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  1:35:26 PM
OI call play SWN is up 1.9 percent after three days of testing its simple 10-dma as support. The stock is out performing its peers in the OIX and OSX indices.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  1:33:18 PM
COF up another 1 percent nearing a new all-time high.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  1:32:44 PM
Whoa! CNBC reporting that UPS plans to deliver 20 million packages just today!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  1:26:53 PM
QQQQ is retesting and so far holding the breakout point above 39.55. The short cycles are toppy but the 30 and 60 minute cycle upphases remain firm.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  1:16:16 PM
QQQQ chart updated at this Link . Crude oil remains lightly positive here, +.1 at 45.875.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  1:12:41 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  1:04:08 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  1:01:09 PM
30.72-.75 is next confluence resistance. Price is up against upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance, and so this is where QQQQ bears should push back, but the reverse h&s breakout looks like the real deal, provided that 39.50 doesn't fail on a pullback.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  12:56:34 PM
Look for 39.50-.55 to act as support now on this QQQQ breakout.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  12:53:26 PM
QQQQ session high of 39.53 is being retested here. The short cycles, 30 min and 60 min cycles are in synchronous upphases. The implied target of a reverse head and shoulders beneath this 39.55 neckline is approximately 40.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  12:50:39 PM
Index 52-week highs today... North Amer. Telecom (XTC.X) 713.26 +0.39%, Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,773.94 +0.61%.

Close .... KBW Bank (BKX.X) 103.16 +0.8% (103.73), Utility (UTY.X) 373.77 +0.44% (374.72), Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,727.50 +0.61% (10,754)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  12:40:10 PM
QQQQ chrt update at this Link . What appears to be a volume surge there was my feed unblocking after a 3 minute stall.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  12:31:05 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 2.5 bp at 4.174% here. (WEEKLY Pivot 4.175%).

Benchmark SPX 1,200.70 +0.50%

Benchmark DJUSHB 782.77 -0.32%

5-30 year spread -0.07

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  12:28:41 PM
Black & Decker (BDK) is creeping higher again with a decent bounce in the last 90 minutes... too bad that only puts it up 21 cents for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  12:24:47 PM
AngioDynamics (ANGO) $17.95 +17.32% Link ... maker of devices to treat arterial disease gaining after reporting quarterly earnings late yesterday of $1 million, or $0.09 per share, up from $606,000 or $0.06 in the year-ago period.

Revenues rose 22% to $14.4 million from $11.9 million in comparable quarter.

Company raised its revenue from +17% to +20% growth for 2005 to a range of +20% to +21%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  12:18:50 PM
Volume has thinned back out again as QQQQ hangs on the 39.45 confluence. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are rising, but the confluence zone at 39.50-.55 looks crucial to me- bullish above, bearish below.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  12:15:02 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  12:02:46 PM
A couple of coal stocks are up strongly today. CNX is up 3.5%. ACI is up 3.48%.

Both stocks were upgraded to a "buy" from Smith Barney

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  12:02:19 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

January Heating Oil undercuts yesterday's low.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  11:58:40 AM
Thanks for the chart links Jeff.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  11:58:21 AM
Back in 10 minutes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  11:58:05 AM
Here's the test of 39.45, with a rise in volume on the move back above 7200 tick SMA resistance. The 30 min channel is ticking up now, with reverse h&s neckline resistance at 39.50-.55, most likely 39.52 QQQQ.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  11:57:46 AM
Bear Stearns Cos (BSC) is down 1.95% to $102.46 following its earnings report this morning where the company beat estimates by 47 cents a share. Technical traders will note that today's candle looks like a bearish engulfing reversal pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  11:56:40 AM
Pulte Home (PHM) $62.97 -0.58% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  11:55:36 AM
James... I addes some PnF chart links to your 11:47:18 notes, simply to get some perspective of bullish vertical counts, etc. as it relates to JP Morgan's call.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  11:51:35 AM
The DFI and DFX defense indices are trading fractionally lower after Prudential downgraded the Defense/Aerospace sector to "neutral" today.

This could be a potential double-top pattern in the DFI index with resistance at the 900 level.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  11:47:18 AM
OI call play MDC Link is down 2 percent following a downgrade to "under weight" by JPM this morning.

The firm also downgraded fellow homebuilder BZH Link yet started coverage on rivals RYL Link and HOV Link with an "over weight" rating.

Currently MDC is beginning to bounce from its simple 10-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   12/21/20,  11:42:54 AM
What I find interesting today is that a large number of stocks being upgraded this morning are not seeing much response in their stock price.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  11:38:59 AM
Updated chart following my 11:31 at this Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  11:35:40 AM
Bullish swing trade stop alert ... stopped on the one (1) FRX Feb. $45 call (FHA-BI) $3.60. ($1.00, or +38.46%)

Forest Labs (FRX) $35.19 -0.49% ... here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  11:31:27 AM
QQQQ ran back up to the breakdown range pictured in my earlier chart and then the volume dropped off, with the price stalled right below the line. The 30 min cycle channel has flattened and compressed, while the short cycles are chopped up and moving sideways. If this is a broad reverse h&s pattern below at 39.50ish neckline for the 2-day QQQQ, then the bulls will need to get back above 30.45 to invalidate the triangle breakdown earlier this morning. If not, then this is where the bounce should fail.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  11:15:42 AM
QQQQ update at this Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  11:15:05 AM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) $53.30 -0.65% ... stop hunting below $53?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  11:13:37 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  11:07:09 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  11:03:39 AM
QQQQ has made it back to the breakdown area at 39.37, testing intraday resistance from below. A failure here will suggest a strong retest of 39.25 support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:58:18 AM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $72.05 +3.8% Link ... target raised to $111 from $90 at Bear Stearns.

PnF chart ... recent trade at $68 generates reversing higher point and figure buy signal with longer-term bullish vertical count hinting at $127

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:56:32 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $23.17 +3.66% ... somewhat active this morning with just over 3.4 million shares trade. Not finding any stock-related news at this point. (Other than Intel's upgrade)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:45:46 AM
Bullish swing trade stop alert .... for the one (1) MWD April $50 call (MWD-DJ) at the bid of $4.50. ($+1.50, or +50%)

MWD $52.85 -1.49% here

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  10:44:43 AM
The 30 min channel upphase has just stalled on the break of the 7200-tick SMA line. Channel support is at 39.25, resistance 39.60. Below 39.25 for 10 minutes or better and the channel should turn back down.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  10:40:55 AM
QQQQ chart at this Link . Trendline support is breaking as I type, with the grey 7200-tick SMA line being tested now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  10:39:06 AM
The Fed has added a 7B 2-day repo to replace the 7B expiring today, no net change for the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  10:33:08 AM
John notes that the VXO is very low, currently -1.54 or 11.49% at 11.86, according to my IB feed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:27:58 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:22:46 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  10:22:33 AM
QQQQ has edged into a weak sideways range, but over the past two days, the pattern looks suspiciously like a cup and handle with bull flag resistance at approximately 39.50. A move above the 39.50-.55 high range for today on expanding volume could well cause a secondary launch to targer the 39.75 area. Volume will be key to confirm the move, however. Below 39.30, that bullish scenario would be invalidated.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:14:54 AM
Swing trade place bullish stop alert ... Let's place a bullish stop on the one (1) MWD April $50 Call (MWD-DJ) $4.50

Option is bid $4.70 here, with MWD $53.07 -1.06%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  10:09:33 AM
30 min cycle channel support has made it to 39.15 QQQQ within this morning's upphase, with resistance at 39.68. The 60 min channel has turned up, with resistance currently at 39.55. The picture remains bullish within these cycles above 39.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:08:50 AM
VIX.X 11.83 (unch) ... DAILY Pivot levels ... 11.51, 11.77, Piv= 12.03, 12.29, 12.55

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  10:02:28 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  10:01:22 AM
Gold is currently down 1 at 442.60 on very thin volume of 249 emini contracts so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  9:55:33 AM
QQQQ is pulling back to 1st support at 39.35, below which 39.29 is confluence and 7200 tick SMA support. The 30 minute bullish bias remains so long as QQQQ holds above the rising 7200-tick SMA.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  9:47:01 AM
February Crude Oil futures (cl05g) $45.68 -0.21% (30-min delayed) ... chart with conventional (blue) and fitted 38.2% (pink) at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  9:36:51 AM
VCampus (VCMP) $2.65 +68.7% ... hot out of the gate.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  9:35:55 AM
The 30 min cycle channel has turned up, and while the channel bottom has only risen to 39.00 QQQQ, the setup nevertheless suggests a bullish bias above 39.29 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  9:32:31 AM
NQ is printing a session high, with QQQQ up to 39.44 here after a doji spike to current 30 min channel resistance of 39.54.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  9:31:17 AM
Session low for ten year notes here, TNX currently -.7 bps at 4.192%. The 4.18% level held again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  9:18:19 AM
Session low for Feb. gold here at 442.50, -1.10.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  9:12:13 AM
Bonds are firm, with TNX back to yesterday's support zone, currently -1.7 bps at 4.182%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  8:58:31 AM
QQQQ has been steady at the highs, currently trading 39.37. A short cycle upphase is in progress, with short cycle channel resistance currently at 39.40. Both the 30 and 60 min cycle channels have resistance at 39.48, but the 30 min channel has begun to rise along with the 30 min cycle oscillators. It will take a move above 39.45 to pull the 30 min channel decisively up- the channel is still liable to whipsaw because the longer 60 min cycle has yet to turn up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/21/20,  7:59:38 AM
Equities are positive, ES flat at 1198.75, NQ +2 at 1606, YM 10690 and QQQQ +.15 at 39.35. Gold is down .20 to 443.40, silver flat at 6.88, ten year notes higher by .171 at 112.1875 and crude oil -.075 at 45.70.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/20/20,  10:34:52 PM
Monday, the OEX rose early in the session but sank steadily most of the rest of the day, ending the day near Friday's close, leaving behind a long upper shadow. I mentioned this weekend that the weekly chart resolves that potential broadening formation into a rising regression channel with shadows both above and below the formation. This may have some validity since the SPX has clearly been in a rising regression channel as has the SOX and some other indices.

Today's OEX close was right on the midline of that rising regression channel. Lower channel support is near 561.23, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market decline. If the OEX is weak, it will roll down through that channel, although it will likely find at least temporary support at the 566.30-ish level if it does. Keltners show that level as potential support, and it's near the original downside target from the H&S confirmed last week. If the OEX is strong, it will find support at the midline or perhaps at that 566.30-ish zone and rise toward the top of the channel. Without a look at how futures behave overnight and how internals set up tomorrow morning, it's difficult to judge whether the OEX is more likely to display strength or weakness tomorrow, and I won't be getting that look. I'll be leaving early tomorrow morning for an out-of-town appointment that will keep me away from the Monitor all day.

From this vantage point, it does look likely that the OEX will test 566.30 or so, perhaps after first rising to retest overhead resistance. It's going to be the outcome of that test of 566.30 or so, if it occurs, that will determine whether the OEX bounces back up through the channel or declines toward the bottom. Pay attention to Jane's notations on the internals (Futures side) and make sure you have as many factors as possible going your direction. I hope to see you again on Wednesday.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/20/20,  10:01:55 PM
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